000
FXAK69 PAFG 172208
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM ADT SAT MAY 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR: RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL
WEAKEN SUN. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST.
LOW NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH... THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN RUSSIA ON WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA... EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
WILL MOVE EAST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN... LEAVING NORTHERN ALASKA IN
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NORTH SLOPE: IT IS HARD TO MAKE A CASE OUT OF ANY CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOG WILL BE
THE GREATEST WEATHER ISSUE. ANY FLURRIES WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

WEST COAST: DITTO FOR THE WEST COAST.

INTERIOR: LIFTED INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO IN
PLACES BETWEEN THE BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE... FROM ZONE 216
EAST TO CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS TODAY THROUGH
MON. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT A BIT MORE
THAN 1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ICE JAM IS STILL IN PLACE ON THE YUKON RIVER 5 TO 7
MILES ABOVE GRAYLING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ215.
&&

$$

MAY 08

000
FXAK67 PAJK 171941
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FOG PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CONTINUED LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FEEDING
FROM THE SOUTH...SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS ARE
GOOD IN AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BROAD LOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WILL
CONFINE ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GRANT SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WITH MUCH IMPROVING WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING. A RAPID
DECREASE OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AFTER THE EVENING SHOWERS OVER
THE INTERIOR. THIS ALSO MEANS AREA OF FOG REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER
THE AREAS NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
OUTSIDE WATERS. AHN


.LONG RANGE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING MANY CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT PACKAGE.  12Z SOLUTIONS OFFER LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE BULK
OF THE LONG RANGE AND THEREFORE THINK THAT PERSISTENCE IS THE
BEST SOLUTION UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED.  AK HPC OFFERS A
SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE SO ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE ALONG THE AFC BORDER.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STRETCHED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH AS A LOW FORMING
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN...OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY. AS THE
CHARLOTTE LOW EXITS THE REGION...A STRONG RIDGE IS QUICK TO BUILD
INTO THE GULF.

12Z GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS A VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW FORMING IN THE
WESTERN GULF ON WED WHICH PUSHES OVER THE TOP OF THE GULF RIDGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN
THE APPARENT STRENGTH OF THE GULF RIDGE.  AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...00Z SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE.  WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL NUDGE TOWARDS CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION.

HEADING TOWARDS LATE WEEK...THE ESTABLISHED RIDGE SHARPENS IN THE
EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF A BROAD LOW FORMING IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC/ALEUTIANS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE DRIER
SIDE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041>043-051-052.

000
FXAK68 PAFC 171750
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1000 AM ADT SAT MAY 17 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF LOWS.  MAIN ENERGY IS IN LOW OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH
MERGES WITH A NEW DEVELOPER ON MONDAY NIGHT.


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM BEING THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW.  SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/NOON OVER MOUNTAINS BUT
NOTHING ORGANIZED AS CAPE VALUES ARE LOW.


.SHORT TERM FORECAST...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DUTCH HARBOR LOW
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING AND ONSHORE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY ON SUN. THIS FRONT ALSO MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.  EXPECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO
REMAIN ON THE COAST...WEAK FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES WITH
THIS FRONT SO MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THEN RAIN ON SUNDAY.  GREATER
PROBABILITY OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER
SUPPORT ALOFT.  THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN OVER ZONE 155 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION.


.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA ON TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS OF
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE LATE WED MORNING.



.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MAY 08

000
FXAK67 PAJK 171406
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
630 AM ADT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...COLD AIR ALF REMAINS LOCKED IN ALEUTIAN LOW WITH SSW
LOW ALF OVR OUR FCST AREA. UPR RIDGE AXIS OVR B.C. INTO YUKON
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALF SO RIDGE APPEARS PROGRESSIVE. 1009 MB SFC
LOW 150 NM S OF YAK WITH SECONDARY WAVE ON FRONT NEAR 48/138W AS
PER 06Z GOES IR IMAGERY. TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESISTS
NORTHERN INLAND CHANNELS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ALF. STG ZONAL JET
250 MB FROM SRN JAPAN TO EXIT 40/145W THEN SSW JET AROUND 120KT
OVR PANHANDLE AS CONTINUOUS FETCH FROM WESTERLIES.

.SHORT RANGE...CRITICAL TO THIS FCST IS TRACK AND DEPTH OF WAVE
WHICH IS MOVG TOWARD NNE AS PER GOES LOOPR. AK-GFS-40 HAS COME
AROUND TO LAST NITES UKMET & ECMWF ON THIS WAVE NOT STRONG AND
KICKING OUR FURTHER E. THIS FITS WITH PROGRESSIVE UPR RIDGE.
FOCUS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALF WILL BE FURTHER S...SO EXPECT SUNNY
PAPG TO GET A TURN WITH THE RAIN. WE EXPECT MONTANA CREEK TO
CREST AROUND THIS ISSUANCE THEN RAPIDLY DROP AS PER OUR OWN RAIN
TAPERING OFF. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PERSIST NORTHERN
SECTIONS THIS MORNING THRU 18Z OR SO THEN WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
WILL ESTABLISH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SAT NITE BUT SOME DRYING
INLAND AND LESS CLOUDS. 17/00Z AK-GFS-40 USED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.


.LONG RANGE...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND ECMWF UP TO
22/12Z AT WHICH TIME ECMWF TRIES TO TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. BASED ON LOCATION AND
ORIENTATION OF THE JET...DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO TO BE
LIKELY. ECMWF IS ALSO TRYING TO BRING IN A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ACROSS THE GULF AT THIS SAME TIME. THINK IT MORE LIKELY
THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ALEUTIAN LOW. ECMWF DID HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZATION
THAN GFS WRT MID LEVEL RH BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALL THE
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE UNDER-INITIALIZED THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
JET NEAR THE DATELINE BUT GFS WAS CLOSEST. NOT A LOT OF
SCATTEROMETER DATA TO WORK WITH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS
HERE TOO WERE UNDER-INITIALIZING THE SURFACE WIND STRENGTH WRT A
LOW NEAR 35N/170W. BLENDED CURRENT GFS TO EXISTING GRIDS.

LOOKING AT A BIT OF A DRYING TREND IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
AFTER ABOUT SUNDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A THERMAL
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP MID WEEK OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE TERRAIN...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THESE
SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS/BORDER AND AFFECT THE
PANHANDLE TOO MUCH BUT FELT IT WISE TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AT LEAST. NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO AFFECT
THE PANHANDLE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

GRID TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED UP TO REFLECT THE IDEA THAT LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. ALSO
INCREASED THE MID AND LATE WEEK CLOUDINESS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
SINCE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HAVE LIKELY PUSHED IN A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MARINE STRATUS BY THIS TIME. IN SPITE IF THIS...AM
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME NICE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY FOR THE INTERIOR ZONES.

GULF WINDS GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE POSSIBLE DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS BELOW
8 FT ON THE OUTSIDE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AS WELL.


.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT PKZ 022 041 042 043 051 052.

JCC/FCF

000
FXAK69 PAFG 171307
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
507 AM ADT SAT MAY 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND CHUKCHI AND BERING
SEAS DRIFTING WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC AND WESTERN CANADA BUILDS A BIT WEST AT THAT TIME. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ALONG ALASKA RANGE CREST DRIFTING NORTH TO BROOKS RANGE
12Z SUNDAY BECOMING DIFFUSE. LOW NORTHWEST OF WRANGELL ISLAND
PERSISTING WITH TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM LOW TO GULF OF ANADYR
00Z MON.

SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR. FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
OVER FAR SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WITH LOW JUST NORTH OF
WHITEHORSE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST AFTER 00Z SUN. OLD
OCCLUSION FROM WAINWRIGHT TO NEAR BETHEL DISSIPATING BY 12Z SUN.
1018 MB HIGH OVER NORTH BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
GENERALLY PERSISTING WHILE AN ARCTIC OCCLUSION FROM RUSSIA DRIFTS
EAST OVER CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THROUGH 00Z MON.

MODELS...SIMILAR NOT ONLY IN SHORT TERM BUT ALSO MEDIUM TERM.

NORTH SLOPE...LIGHT WIND FLOW CONTINUING. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT WESTERN ZONES WITH OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
STILL HANGING ON.

WESTERN ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
WINDS BUT ALSO ONSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
OLD OCCLUSION ALOFT PROVIDING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER INNER
COASTAL REGIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...AT LEAST
FOR TODAY. ARCTIC OCCLUSION MOVING EAST OVER CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
WILL POSE LITTLE CHANGE IN WEST COAST WEATHER EVEN TO MUCH OF
OUTER COASTAL SECTIONS. LIMITED CONVECTION OVER INLAND ZONES...
ISOLATED OR OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS NEXT THREE DAYS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD RUN SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ZONES 220-224..OTHERWISE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SOUTHERN 220...ZONES
221-224 AND 226...AND THESE MOSTLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. ON
SUNDAY EXPECT LITTLE TO CHANGE...POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS ZONE 218.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS A BIT DUE TO LONG WAVE TROUGH DRIFTING WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ215.
&&

$$

JL MAY 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 171251
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT MAY 17 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AGAIN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...WITH
DIVERGENCES BEGINNING TO BECOME IMPORTANT BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. DESPITE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE THREE TO EIGHT DAY FORECAST...THE LARGER
SCALE PATTERN IS PRETTY CLOSE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
GENERAL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WIDE STEERING LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS
WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. SUBTLE FEATURES IN WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE AFFECTING THE
AREA WITH ONE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ONE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...AND TWO OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...ONE SOUTH OF KODIAK
AND ONE EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...ALTHOUGH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NEAR THE
COPPER RIVER OR MCGRATH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY WITH THE RETROGRADING OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE
TO ABOUT 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE ALEUTIAN TROUGH WILL
ELONGATE SOUTHWARD AND THE JET WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE.

DESPITE THESE CHANGES THE OVER-ALL PICTURE FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL
CHANGE LITTLE...WITH SOME WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. A CONTINUATION OF
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAY 08

000
FXAK69 PAFG 162301
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
301 PM ADT FRI MAY 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVERALL...GENERALLY LOW
HEIGHTS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND A SERIES OF WEAK FEATURES
DRIFTING AROUND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SPAWN OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION BROUGHT ON BY A PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH
LYING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE WERE ALMOST 100 LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THE INTERIOR YESTERDAY...DO NOT THINK THAT TODAY
WILL BE AS ACTIVE DUE TO THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS THAT HUNG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LATE MORNING...THIS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD WORK TO LIMIT CONVECTION IN MANY AREAS. THE BEST DYNAMICS
STILL EXIST ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED NORTH TO LIE
JUST SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. OVERALL...THE INTERIOR APPEARS TO
BE IN A WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS
AND SHIFT THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS SOUTH AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

AREAS OF FOG AND FLURRIES SHOULD DOMINATE WEATHER ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE...A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MIX IN THIS
WEEKEND...BUT FAIRLY CALM AND QUIET OVERALL.

A SIMILAR STORY FOR THE WEST COAST...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER
WILL DRIFT LOCALLY DENSE FOG ON AND OFF SHORE UNTIL A DOMINANT OFF
SHORE WIND DIRECTION DEVELOPS...FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WHERE MOST OF THE COLD AIR RESIDES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO HIGH RH
VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AN ICE JAM HAS FORMED JUST UPSTREAM OF GRAYLING ON
THE YUKON RIVER. AN FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SUDDEN RELEASE OF ICE AND WATER IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ215.
&&

$$

KS MAY 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 162021
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM ADT FRI MAY 16 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 60
HOURS.  GFS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS LOCKING ON TO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION
IN THE LONG-TERM.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOW SOUTH OF AK
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERMAL THROUGH FORMING
SAT AND SUN OVER NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EXTEND WESTWARD.


.SHORT TERM FORECAST...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN OVER THE CHAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE AS NEW DEVELOPER FORMS ON MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE BERING ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS SAT AND SUN FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG
COAST STRIP AS FLOW IS PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE.  VERY LIMITED
CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONVECTION
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER THE TALKEETNA MTN AND AK RANGE.  LOWER CAPE VALUES IN
THIS AREA BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS NOTED ABOVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.  LOOKS
LIKE GFS AND UKMET IN SOME AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF A 1010 LOW
MONDAY MORNING WELL SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND THEN MOVING IT INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA.  OVERALL HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN DETAILS OF SOLUTION IN
THE MARINE ZONES. OVER LAND ZONES HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MAY 08

000
FXAK67 PAJK 162006
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1120 AM ADT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS A 120 KNOT JET
CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE AREA. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENT
LOCATED NEAR 54N 140W AND MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD. EXPECT THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CALIFORNIA SHIFTS NORTHWARD
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY BRINGING NICE WEATHER. ALSO A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1010 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THIS IS ALLOWING WARM
TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS KLAWOCK IS ALREADY UP TO 61 F AT 10AM. WENT WITH A
UKMET/GFS BLEND FOR TODAYS PACKAGE AS THE UKMET INITIALIZED THE
BEST THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
THE MID LEVEL VORT FIELD WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 36N 143W WHICH IS
THE SOURCE REGION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND MOVES INLAND TOMORROW
BOTH THE UKMET/GFS HAD A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE RESIDUAL LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT SO OFTEN OCCURS.

FOR TONIGHT THE 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND
RAIN. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRETCHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHIFTING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
WILL REMAIN NEAR YAKUTAT SO EXPECT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THERE
TONIGHT. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK 1010 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TONIGHT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT. DO EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON THE COASTAL AND
OUTSIDE MARINE AREAS...BUT THE INNER CHANNELS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT
WINDS WITH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TOMORROW THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS WILL MAKE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH NOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO MOVE INTO THE YUKON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BUILD IN THE YUKON AND THIS WILL
BUILD A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO DO EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR SKAGWAY AND 25 KNOT WESTERLIES IN
THE GULF. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN WITH
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING. BUT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON THROUGHOUT THE DAY DO EXPECT RAIN TO
BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE HYDER AND COAST MOUNTAIN
RANGE AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO EXPERIENCE THE SUNNY BREAKS...BUT
THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG RANGE...THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS
RUN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IT SEEMS LIKE THE INFLUENCE OF
OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEEN REMOVED IN THE
RECENT ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THUS PREFER TO BLEND 50/50 OF THE 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE RESULTING MODEL
CONSENSUS YIELDS A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
MAKING ITS PATH WEAKLY CONNECTED TO THE CANADIAN LOW EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS ALSO MAY EASE
THE SIZZLING CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS A BROAD LOW THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. REBUILDING PACIFIC HIGH WILL PUSH THE LOW AREA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS. AHN

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

$$

PSS/SJA

000
FXAK67 PAJK 161921
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1120 AM ADT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS A 120 KNOT JET
CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE AREA. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENT
LOCATED NEAR 54N 140W AND MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD. EXPECT THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CALIFORNIA SHIFTS NORTHWARD
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY BRINGING NICE WEATHER. ALSO A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1010 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THIS IS ALLOWING WARM
TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS KLAWOCK IS ALREADY UP TO 61 F AT 10AM. WENT WITH A
UKMET/GFS BLEND FOR TODAYS PACKAGE AS THE UKMET INITIALIZED THE
BEST THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
THE MID LEVEL VORT FIELD WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 36N 143W WHICH IS
THE SOURCE REGION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND MOVES INLAND TOMORROW
BOTH THE UKMET/GFS HAD A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE RESIDUAL LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT SO OFTEN OCCURS.

FOR TONIGHT THE 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND
RAIN. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRETCHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHIFTING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
WILL REMAIN NEAR YAKUTAT SO EXPECT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THERE
TONIGHT. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK 1010 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TONIGHT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT. DO EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON THE COASTAL AND
OUTSIDE MARINE AREAS...BUT THE INNER CHANNELS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT
WINDS WITH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TOMORROW THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS WILL MAKE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH NOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO MOVE INTO THE YUKON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BUILD IN THE YUKON AND THIS WILL
BUILD A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO DO EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR SKAGWAY AND 25 KNOT WESTERLIES IN
THE GULF. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN WITH
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING. BUT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON THROUGHOUT THE DAY DO EXPECT RAIN TO
BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE HYDER AND COAST MOUNTAIN
RANGE AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO EXPERIENCE THE SUNNY BREAKS...BUT
THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG RANGE...THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS
RUN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IT SEEMS LIKE THE INFLUENCE OF
OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEEN REMOVED IN THE
RECENT ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THUS PREFER TO BLEND 50/50 OF THE 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE RESULTING MODEL
CONSENSUS YIELDS A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
MAKING ITS PATH WEAKLY CONNECTED TO THE CANADIAN LOW EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS ALSO MAY EASE
THE SIZZLING CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS A BROAD LOW THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. REBUILDING PACIFIC HIGH WILL PUSH THE LOW AREA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS. AHN

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

$$

PSS/SJA

000
FXAK67 PAJK 161408
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
630 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...STRONG 120 KT SOUTHERLY JET AROUND BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER PACIFIC NW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLE.
A 1010 MB WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NEAR
CAPE SPENCER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDS NE OF
THE LOW AND ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH TO ICY STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT THEN OCCLUDES AS LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND FINALLY STARTS
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR HYDER THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL B.C THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE IN ADVANCE
OF WARM FRONT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PAYA ON THE NORTHWESTERN MOST EDGE OF THE
PRECIP. WEST OF YAKUTAT FLOW INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE AND COULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SHOULD END THIS MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A FEW SUN BREAKS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN ZONES WELL INTO THE
WARM AIR NOW WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE LINGERING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SEVERAL
LARGE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO THE SE SO THINK WILL SEE LOWER
CLOUDS BREAK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD EVEN SEE A FEW SUN
BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND
EXPECT RAIN RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT.

NE SMCR WINDS AHEAD OF WARM FRONT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO
MAX SMCR THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS. SEAS STILL AROUND 12
FEET DUE TO SW SWELL BUT THIS FORECAST TO DROP OFF BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH WIND OCCURRING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL SEE INCREASING NE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT TO SE TONIGHT.


.LONG RANGE...
A PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT DOMINATES THE PACIFIC IS THE ALEUTIAN
LOW WITH COLD AIR ALF TO -32C AT 500 HPA. ONE BELIEVABLE FEATURE
IN THE 16/00Z MODELS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL LAST AND LAST. PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS WHETHER TO ACCEPT THE
GFS FORECASTED DEVELOPMENT AT 45N 150W AT 12Z SUNDAY. ALL 00Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SOME SFC DEVELOPMENT THERE WITH THE GFS
NATURALLY DEVELOPING THIS MOST RAPID OF ALL. THIS IS THE SHORT-
WAVE THAT THE GFS KICKS THE 594 HPA HIGH OUT OF OREGON. METHINKS
THAT DUE TO THE EXTREME HEIGHTS DOWN THERE THE GFS FORECAST FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS TOO DEEP TOO SOON...BUT WITH COLD AIR TO THE WEST
OF THE DEVELOPMENT AREA A WEAKER SFC LOW WILL CERTAINLY HAPPEN.

LOCALLY - WILL USE THE 16/00Z ECMWF FOR EXTENDED WINDS WITH A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TEMPS. AFTER THE GRIDS WERE COMPLETED AND
SENT...06Z AK-GFS CAME AROUND TO THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH 00Z TUE GFS
HAS A WEAK LOW OVR THE PANHANDLE. BEYOND TUE 00Z GFS GETS TOO
EXCITED ABOUT A GALE IN THE SW GULF WHICH IS WEAKENED ON THE 06Z
RUN.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SMCR PKZ041-053

JC/MM

000
FXAK69 PAFG 161326
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
526 AM ADT FRI MAY 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN AK TO THE NORTH PACIFIC IS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. ANCHORING LOW NORTHWEST OF WRANGELL ISLAND
ALSO PERSISTING WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND LOW AND BRUSHING
WESTERN ARCTIC THROUGH WEEKEND. RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
AND WESTERN CANADA PERSISTING. RESULTANT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
MAINLAND AK WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES DRIFTING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
HALF THROUGH SUN.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH FROM INUVIK CANADA TO BETTLES TO NEAR
UNALAKLEET WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH SAT WHILE A LOW FORMS NEAR
BURWASH LANDING CANADA AND DEEPENS TO 1005 MB. EVENTUALLY A SECOND
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE CANADA LOW TO FAIRBANKS BY 12Z SUN.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT NAM/WRF FORM LOW
OVER BURWASH LANDING CANADA BY 06Z SAT LIKE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN
DOING. A NEW TWIST TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS IS HIGH QPFS OVER THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT AM.
THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS AS THEY INDICATE UPSLOPE
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WHILE PVA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT. THEN
BOTH MODELS REPLAY THIS SCENARIO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. QPF
BY NAM IS ONLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GFS...ABOUT 0.75 INCH EACH
NIGHT.

NORTH SLOPE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WESTERN ZONES TODAY AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND LOW NORTHWEST OF WRANGELL ISLAND. NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MARINE ZONE 225 WINDS UP SAT...THOUGH MOSTLY
BELOW ADVISORY SPEEDS. OTHERWISE QUIET WX.

WESTERN ALASKA...THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM NULATO HILLS NORTHEAST TO AMBLER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...COVERING NORTHERN ZONES 215 AND 216...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO SOUTH. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIP ELSEWHERE. OVER NEXT
TWO DAYS THERMAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND THUS SO WILL SHOWER
AREA...AND ON SATURDAY PM EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONES
215 AND 216 AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES SOME MORE. FARTHER WEST
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MARINE AREAS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ZONES
AND THE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ZONES 218 219 AND 220 AS THERE IS
LESS CLOUDINESS AND BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD SOUTH FOR SATURDAY OVER ZONES
220 THROUGH 224 THOUGH COVERAGE STILL ISOLATED AND MIGHT BE HARD
TO GET ANY SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
CLOUDINESS NEAR ALASKA RANGE. UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH PVA OVER NORTHERN ALASKA RANGE ZONES IS EXPECTED TO BRING
FREQUENT SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW THERE TONIGHT AND SAT
AM...POSSIBLY AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN AM. SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WET BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 OR 2 INCHES ON ROADS ABOVE 2000
FEET ELEVATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.
&&

$$

JL MAY 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 161241
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI MAY 16 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO ABOUT 84 HOURS. THE 00Z
GFS HAD A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AT 120 HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF
BUT THE 06Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF AND MATCHES THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS
ITS OWN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. THE MORNING FORECASTS GENERALLY
WENT WITH THE 00Z GFS THROUGH ABOUT 96 HOURS...THEN TRENDED BACK
TOWARD THE CONSENSUS FOR THE EXTENDED.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STEERING LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. STORM TRACK EXITS ASIA
NEAR JAPAN AND CRUISES ALONG ZONALLY AT ABOUT 35 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL ABOUT 155 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. AT THIS POINT IT
CURVES SHARPLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. AN
IMPRESSIVELY STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST IS
PUSHING MOST JET ENERGY INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND THEN IT
DIVES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER 48 STATES NEAR MINNESOTA. A VORT MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEAKENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
TODAY...WITH THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS CRASHING INTO THE PANHANDLE.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL DRY THINGS OUT LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST IMPROVEMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO INLAND AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL GENERALLY
BE OVER THE ALEUTIANS OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS WARMER LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES CREATE MORE CONVECTION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAY 08