[top]
000
FXUS64 KBMX 062319
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST ALABAMA WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
QUIET SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS
ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH COULD
ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ALLOW MAJOR HURRICANE IKE TO BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM CUBA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SEEMS TO BE GOING THEME OF
THE 12Z MODELS. THEREAFTER THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. IF ITS DEEP ENOUGH...IT COULD SUFFICIENTLY DRAW
IKE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z EC ALSO DEVELOPS THE LATE WEEK TROUGH BUT
SOMEHOW MANAGES TO MISS IKE WHICH THEN GETS WRAPPED AROUND A
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE AND PULLED INTO MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ONLY REAL AVIATION CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS THE CONTINUING
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
THIS IS ONLY DIRECTLY EFFECTING TOI. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE FIRST
HOUR OR SO OF THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND A LOWER...IFR CEILING. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS KEEP THE AREA CLEAR AND DRY...BUT WITH THE SURFACE MOISTURE
BEING RELATIVELY HIGH AND A LOWER LEVEL INVERSION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES ARE
LIKELY. WENT AHEAD AND MADE SURE THE TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS ARE
COVERED...ESPECIALLY TOI WHERE THE GROUND MOISTURE WILL BE THE
HIGHEST WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TOMORROW WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
CU DURING THE LATE MORNING.
17/KLAWS
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMOB 062110 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL WAFFLE ABOUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT. DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE FRONT THE HUMIDITY
IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE MORE MOIST BUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER
AREAS TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ONLY TO
POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR
WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MANAGING TO GET BACK INTO THE
LOWER 90S AT MOST PLACES. /11
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG
TERM. STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER HURRICANE IKE WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT...MAJOR OR MINOR ON THE LOCAL AREA. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID
WEEK TO WEEKEND FORECAST AS LONG AS IKE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. /11
&&
.MARINE...AS GUSTAV MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST...TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SYNOPTIC OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. IKE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST OF CUBA TUESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ACCORDING TO LATEST NHC FORECAST.
THE FA WILL LIKELY START SEEING SWELLS FROM IKE AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVERSE IN
THE RESULTANT TRACK AFTER DAY 3/4...SO HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THE LATTER COUPLE DAYS OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR 18Z FORECAST)IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GAVE WAY
TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...CENTERED JUST EAST
OF THE AREA...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY EAST OF PNS.
/16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN MOIST WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DID NOTICE
DISPERSION INDICES FOR SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY POOR TO FAIR(13 TO40)
DUE MAINLY TO LOW TRANSPORT WINDS WITH A 700 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER THE
AREA. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE TO AVERAGE TO GOOD BY MONDAY. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 70 91 71 91 / 10 20 05 20
PENSACOLA 74 92 74 90 / 20 20 05 20
DESTIN 76 88 75 88 / 20 20 05 20
EVERGREEN 68 92 66 91 / 20 20 05 20
WAYNESBORO 64 92 66 91 / 05 05 10 20
CAMDEN 67 93 66 92 / 10 05 05 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 062004
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
33 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL WAFFLE ABOUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT. DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE FRONT THE HUMIDITY
IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE MORE MOIST BUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER
AREAS TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ONLY TO
POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR
WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MANAGING TO GET BACK INTO THE
LOWER 90S AT MOST PLACES. /11
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG
TERM. STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER HURRICANE IKE WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT...MAJOR OR MINOR ON THE LOCAL AREA. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID
WEEK TO WEEKEND FORECAST AS LONG AS IKE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. /11
&&
.MARINE...AS GUSTAV MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST...TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SYNOPTIC OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. IKE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST OF CUBA TUESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ACCORDING TO LATEST NHC FORECAST.
THE FA WILL LIKELY START SEEING SWELLS FROM IKE AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVERSE IN
THE RESULTANT TRACK AFTER DAY 3/4...SO HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THE LATTER COUPLE DAYS OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR 18Z FORECAST)IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GAVE WAY
TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...CENTERED JUST EAST
OF THE AREA...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY EAST OF PNS.
/16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN MOIST WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DID NOTICE
DISPERSION INDICES FOR SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY POOR TO FAIR(13 TO40)
DUE MAINLY TO LOW TRANSPORT WINDS WITH A 700 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER THE
AREA. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE TO AVERAGE TO GOOD BY MONDAY. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 70 91 71 91 / 10 20 05 20
PENSACOLA 74 92 74 90 / 20 20 05 20
DESTIN 76 88 75 88 / 20 20 05 20
EVERGREEN 68 92 66 91 / 20 20 05 20
WAYNESBORO 64 92 66 91 / 05 05 10 20
CAMDEN 67 93 66 92 / 10 05 05 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHUN 061959
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER...BUT STUBBORN STRATUS CONTINUED TO HANG ON OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES THUS FAR TEMPERED BELOW
USUALLY WARM TO HOT EARLY SEPT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S. 2 PM TEMPS
FOR MOST PLACES WERE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WITH A W-N WIND UNDER 10
MPH. AN EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS EASTERN JACKSON AND MOST
OF DEKALB COUNTY WHERE MORE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH...WHERE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH 82 NOTED AT FT
PAYNE. MORE HEATING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR
WESTERN NC TO WEST OF ATLANTA WAS HELPING TO FIRE SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEAR THE LEGACY 124NM RANGE RING OF THE HYTOP RADAR.
ON A LARGER SCALE...TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE OF VIRGINIA...WITH HURRICANE IKE UP TO CATEGORY-3 STRENGTH
AGAIN NEARING THE BAHAMAS. IKE COULD PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OUR WEATHER
IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MORE ON THAT LATER.
FOR THE SHORTER TERM. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY MID AND
UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND A SOMEWHAT WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. QUESTION IS WHETHER COVERAGE OF
THE FOG WILL BE PATCHY OR MORE EXTENSIVE. HAVE LEFT COVERAGE IS AS
AREAS FOR NOW...WILL FINALIZE THIS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
SENDING OUT THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE AFTER MORNING FOG...A MIGHTY FINE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SIMILAR WEATHER BUT A TAD WARMER FOR
MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE-S.
MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR SE AREAS TUESDAY NIGHTS
WITH DRY WEATHER RETUNING OTHERWISE.
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
BEYOND. 12Z MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE RUNS DEPICTS
A FEW SOLUTIONS ON WHERE HURRICANE IKE COULD EVENTUALLY LANDFALL.
THESE RANGE FROM SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHERE IT GOES COULD PLAY A BIG ROLE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.
HOWEVER WITH IT NEARING THIS AREA...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
NEARING... HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
T-STORMS FOR NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 60 90 64 91 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
SHOALS 58 89 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
CULLMAN 61 88 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 58 88 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 60 88 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
FORT PAYNE 57 88 62 91 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
RSB
000
FXUS64 KBMX 061928
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST ALABAMA WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
QUIET SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS
ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH COULD
ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ALLOW MAJOR HURRICANE IKE TO BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM CUBA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SEEMS TO BE GOING THEME OF
THE 12Z MODELS. THEREAFTER THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. IF ITS DEEP ENOUGH...IT COULD SUFFICIENTLY DRAW
IKE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z EC ALSO DEVELOPS THE LATE WEEK TROUGH BUT
SOMEHOW MANAGES TO MISS IKE WHICH THEN GETS WRAPPED AROUND A
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE AND PULLED INTO MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROF...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK
INTO MISSISSIPPI. AN INVERSION AROUND 850MB HAS TRAPPED THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MVFR
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. MGM AND TOI WILL STAY ON EAST SIDE OF
SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH BASES
ARND 4000 FEET. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND VCSH INCLUDED IN THE MGM AND TOI TAFS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AFTER 00Z REGARDING LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SKIES WILL PROBABLY BECOME SCATTERED IN
MOST LOCATIONS BY 00Z. NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SATURATED LAYERS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONLY NGM MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
05Z BUT POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/FOG ACROSS ALABAMA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 62 90 62 91 65 / 10 0 0 10 20
ANNISTON 64 90 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 65 91 67 91 68 / 10 0 0 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 65 92 65 92 68 / 10 0 0 10 20
CALERA 66 91 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 20
AUBURN 67 91 69 89 69 / 20 0 0 20 20
MONTGOMERY 69 91 68 93 69 / 10 0 0 20 20
TROY 69 91 67 92 67 / 20 10 0 20 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
88/58
000
FXUS64 KBMX 061740
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL TROF HAS PUSHED EASTWARD TO THE I-65
CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE TROF THE AIRMASS IS STILL WARM AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. WEST OF THE
TROF...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 850MB. CLOUDS NEVER CLEARED ACROSS MISSISSIPPI YESTERDAY AS
THEY WERE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS...AND THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY KEEP WEST ALABAMA IN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65...MEANING MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS EAST OF I-65.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROF...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK
INTO MISSISSIPPI. AN INVERSION AROUND 850MB HAS TRAPPED THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MVFR
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. MGM AND TOI WILL STAY ON EAST SIDE OF
SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH BASES
ARND 4000 FEET. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND VCSH INCLUDED IN THE MGM AND TOI TAFS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTANITY AFTER 00Z REGARDING LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SKIES WILL PROBABLY BECOME SCATTERED IN
MOST LOCATIONS BY 00Z. NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SATURATED LAYERS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONLY NGM MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
05Z BUT POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/FOG ACROSS ALABAMA.
58/ROSE
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 061702 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS THUS FAR HAVE KEPT BOTH KMSL/KHSV AT MVFR
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH DO XPCT A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AROUND 22Z AS
CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT. IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING AND VIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A NEAR SAT GROUND COMBINED WITH DECOUPLING
WINDS LEADS TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW
IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
THOUGH WITH DAYBREAK SUN.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...DZ- HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE ITS WAY EWD INTO NRN
GA AS A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TN VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS MAY BE WITH THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINING MORNING HRS BEFORE SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TRIES TO ADVECT EWD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
TODAY DEPENDENT ON THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE XTENT
OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BACK INTO MS...WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS A
FEWN DEGREES CLOSER TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DG.09
000
FXUS64 KMOB 061623
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPS
NORTHWEST A BIT TO BETTER SHOW THE DECREASED INSOLATION JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE FA.
16
&&
**************** PREVIOUS ***********************
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
ARE EXPECTED. PARTLY TO OCNLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY TODAY OVER
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...GENERALLY OVER AL/FL ZONES...
WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL FADE AWAY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...
AND WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FRONT EXTENDING FROM REMNANTS
OF GUSTAV MOVING OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL
STORM HANNA INTO COASTAL NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH DEEP LAYERED WATER VAPOR AVAILABILITY. GFS COMPUTES
THAT 1000-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM APPROXIMATELY MOIST ADIABATIC TO A
DEGREE OR SO LESS...CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500...PW ABATING TO ABOUT 1.5
INCHES ON AVERAGE IN THE CWA...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
SUGGESTING NOT SUCH WIDESPREAD EFFICIENT RAINMAKING AS IN THE DAYS
FOLLOWING GUSTAV. AFTER A DRY PERIOD EARLY IN THE WEEK ONCE AGAIN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MESOSCALE WILL TAKE OVER THE LEFT SEAT. THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL THEN FORCE THE CONVECTION IN SOMETHING RESEMBLING
AN ORGANIZED FASHION FROM MIDWEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS BECOMING CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
ALBEIT WITH A WARY EYE...THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF IKE DOES
NOT ALLOW US MUCH DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE. THERE IS HOWEVER A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH TENDS TO ERODE AROUND THE END OF
THE PERIOD...BUT GFS HAS GONE THROUGH SEVERAL UNDULATIONS OF
INDECISION THESE PAST FEW CYCLES. THAT BEING SAID...STAY TUNED. 77/BD
&&
.MARINE...A MAINLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW...WITH
RESULTANT SMALL SEA STATES...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW WILL HAVE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES.
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE
CONSISTENTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES...APPROACHING
SCEC OR SCA LEVELS BY WEEKS END. NHC FORECAST HAS HURRICANE IKE
ENTERING THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE MARINE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION [06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA (AL/FL ZONES). WILL HAVE SOME PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY...BUT LOW VSBY WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT
VERY WIDESPREAD. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 25 KFT TO 030 KFT...EXCEPT
LOWER WITH SCATTERED CB`S AND HEAVY RAIN..AND OF COURSE FOG. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. 77/BD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 70 91 70 / 20 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 89 73 91 72 / 30 10 10 10
DESTIN 84 79 85 79 / 30 20 20 10
EVERGREEN 90 68 93 67 / 30 20 10 10
WAYNESBORO 88 66 92 67 / 20 10 05 10
CAMDEN 90 67 93 67 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 061542
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1040 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...TODAYS WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL TROF HAS PUSHED EASTWARD TO THE I-65
CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE TROF THE AIRMASS IS STILL WARM AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. WEST OF THE
TROF...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 850MB. CLOUDS NEVER CLEARED ACROSS MISSISSIPPI YESTERDAY AS
THEY WERE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS...AND THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY KEEP WEST ALABAMA IN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65...MEANING MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS EAST OF I-65.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING TODAY. CEILINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AROUND 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT EET AND ANB COULD RESULT IN MORE PERSISTANT
CEILINGS. RAINFALL AT EET AND ANB IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
DIMINISHING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WE SHOULD LOSE CEILINGS AREA WIDE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
12/SIRMON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 061518 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1015 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...DZ- HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE ITS WAY EWD INTO NRN GA AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY.
LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS MAY BE WITH THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINING
MORNING HRS BEFORE SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TRIES TO ADVECT EWD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DEPENDENT
ON THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT FOR NOW WILL LET CURRENT HIGHS
REMAIN IN TACT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT BOTH KMSL/KHSV BETWEEN IFR/LIFR FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING TO VFR CIGS
BY 18Z. INCLUDED MVFR VIS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AT KMSL FOR
PATCHY FOG...WHICH MAY ALSO AFFECT KHSV...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AS
COVERAGE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE ATTM.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...09
AVIATION...JLL
000
FXUS64 KHUN 061141 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT BOTH KMSL/KHSV BETWEEN IFR/LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING TO VFR CIGS BY 18Z.
INCLUDED MVFR VIS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AT KMSL FOR PATCHY
FOG...WHICH MAY ALSO AFFECT KHSV...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AS COVERAGE
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE ATTM.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE STRETCH FROM
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TN VALLEY
(INCLUDING MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA) AND TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROWING RIBBON OF
MOISTURE AND SHEAR ZONE ALSO TIED TO THIS AXIS...SITUATED BETWEEN
T.S. HANNA AND BROAD TROFINESS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...PLAINS...AND GREAT LAKES.
.SHORT TERM...
THE LOWEST CEILINGS WERE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING SFC
TROF WHICH IS NOW PAST THE I-59 CORRIDOR. IRONICALLY...THE SKY WAS
STILL CLEAR AT FORT PAYNE (K4A9)...BUT NOT FOR LONG. RADAR
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHRINKING PATCH OF SHRA ALONG AND JUST E
OF I-65...APPROACHING THE HSV METRO. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTIONS OF
THE DAY ARE PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...AND HOW LONG
TO KEEP CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING DOWNGLIDE/SUBSIDENCE AS THE SHEAR AXIS DROPS
SE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD SPEED UP LATER TODAY AS HANNA MOVES
RAPIDLY UP THE COASTLINE.
SHALLOW CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE EASTERN CLOUD EDGE...WHICH MAY YET SIT ALONG THE
I-59 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE/-RA WILL
BE INCLUDED EARLY THIS MORNING ELSEWHERE BEFORE CIGS CLIMB. THE
NAM FORECAST SOUNDING IS RATHER PESSIMISTIC FOR MUCH CLEARING UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO I HAVE DROPPED TEMP EXPECTATIONS CLOSER
TO SUGGESTED MOS (M80S).
FOR TONIGHT...AS WINDS DIMINISH...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY WET
GROUND...RADIATION FG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS PROBABLE. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW LITTLE SUN IS SEEN TODAY. GIVEN DRY
ADVECTION...CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FG...BUT
COULD BE DENSE IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE IT.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHEAR AXIS WILL BE TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH...AND THE DEEPER CP AIRMASS BOTTLED UP TO THE N.
LIGHT NE FLOW AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE WX
HOWEVER...DESPITE TEMPS REACHING NEAR 90 BOTH DAYS.
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...FOR OBVIOUS REASONS WRT TO THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE
IKE. 00Z MODELS AND NHC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF IKE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF INSTEAD OF BEING TURNED N. THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK IS KEPT WELL TO OUR N AS A
RESULT...WITH A DEEPER EASTERLY FETCH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURNING TUE-THU...AND A GENERAL
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON PULSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 85 60 90 63 91 / 10 0 0 0 10
SHOALS 85 58 89 63 92 / 10 0 0 0 10
CULLMAN 81 63 88 62 89 / 20 0 0 0 10
FAYETTEVILLE 83 60 89 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 10
ALBERTVILLE 83 63 89 64 91 / 20 0 0 0 10
FORT PAYNE 87 60 89 60 90 / 20 0 0 0 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JLL
DISCUSSION...KULA
000
FXUS64 KBMX 061140
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HANNA MAY BE MORE THAN 400 MILES OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT BELIEVE IT OR NOT...HER FINGERPRINT WILL BE ON THE
WEATHER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGE AND SURFACE
DEWPOINT ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INDICATE A MARKED SUBSIDENCE
ZONE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA...WHILE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CONVERGENCE ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS SUBSIDENCE ZONE...IS
BECOMING AMPLIFIED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST
SQUEEZES OUT THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY FROM GUSTAV. YEP...LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHAT IS KNOWN LOCALLY AS THE DE BLOCK/JONES
ZONE...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...AS SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT HELP PINPOINT THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE AXIS...
AND WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SUPPRESSING THE
CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL ZONE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT...BUT EITHER WAY...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LINGERING SHOWERS AWHILE THIS
EVENING...THEN REFIRING SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WIREGRASS
COUNTIES. FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA HOWEVER...WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PLEASANT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE FORECAST IS A BIT NEBULOUS...AS THE
INTERFACE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC AND CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS IN THE MIDWEST WILL LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
INVERTED DISTURBANCES...WHILE A REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY SHOULD AMPLIFY CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE SHOWERY...WHILE THE ADDED CONVERGENCE AND
DYNAMICS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON TUESDAY WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALL EYES WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AS IKE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND ENTER THE GULF. FROM WEDNESDAY ON TO THE END OF THE WEEK...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO SLIDE...DUE TO THE WIDE ERROR CONE
AND DIVERGENT MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF IKE. THE
OFFICIAL 5 DAY TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER PUTS IKE ABOUT 500
MILES SSE OF BIRMINGHAM. FROM THAT TIME AND LOCATION...SOME MODELS
TAKE IKE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHILE OTHERS
DRIVE IKE DUE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS GULF COAST. THERE ARE A
NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT WILL WEIGH IN ON THE EVENTUAL PATH
OF IKE...MAINLY THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. FOR NOW...WILL RELUCTANTLY
GO WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION...WHICH ALLOWS IKE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT ALABAMA. EVEN WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS...EXPECT
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...DEFINITE EMPHASIS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AND THE WHEREABOUTS OF IKE IS TO CHECK BACK OFTEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS WE NARROW IN ON AN EVENTUAL TRACK.
JD/81
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING TODAY. CEILINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AROUND 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT EET AND ANB COULD RESULT IN MORE PERSISTANT
CEILINGS. RAINFALL AT EET AND ANB IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
DIMINISHING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WE SHOULD LOSE CEILINGS AREA WIDE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
12/SIRMON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 87 62 91 62 90 / 20 10 0 10 10
ANNISTON 87 65 91 66 91 / 30 10 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 66 92 67 91 / 20 10 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 87 67 92 66 93 / 10 10 0 10 10
CALERA 88 66 92 67 92 / 20 10 0 10 10
AUBURN 87 68 90 69 89 / 30 20 10 10 20
MONTGOMERY 90 69 93 68 92 / 30 10 10 10 20
TROY 89 68 91 68 91 / 40 20 10 10 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
81/12
000
FXUS64 KBMX 061014
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
514 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...HANNA MAY BE MORE THAN 400 MILES OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT BELIEVE IT OR NOT...HER FINGERPRINT WILL BE ON THE
WEATHER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGE AND SURFACE
DEWPOINT ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INDICATE A MARKED SUBSIDENCE
ZONE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA...WHILE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CONVERGENCE ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS SUBSIDENCE ZONE...IS
BECOMING AMPLIFIED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST
SQUEEZES OUT THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY FROM GUSTAV. YEP...LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHAT IS KNOWN LOCALLY AS THE DE BLOCK/JONES
ZONE...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...AS SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT HELP PINPOINT THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE AXIS...
AND WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SUPPRESSING THE
CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL ZONE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT...BUT EITHER WAY...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LINGERING SHOWERS AWHILE THIS
EVENING...THEN REFIRING SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WIREGRASS
COUNTIES. FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA HOWEVER...WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PLEASANT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE FORECAST IS A BIT NEBULOUS...AS THE
INTERFACE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC AND CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS IN THE MIDWEST WILL LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
INVERTED DISTURBANCES...WHILE A REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY SHOULD AMPLIFY CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE SHOWERY...WHILE THE ADDED CONVERGENCE AND
DYNAMICS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON TUESDAY WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALL EYES WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AS IKE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND ENTER THE GULF. FROM WEDNESDAY ON TO THE END OF THE WEEK...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO SLIDE...DUE TO THE WIDE ERROR CONE
AND DIVERGENT MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF IKE. THE
OFFICIAL 5 DAY TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER PUTS IKE ABOUT 500
MILES SSE OF BIRMINGHAM. FROM THAT TIME AND LOCATION...SOME MODELS
TAKE IKE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHILE OTHERS
DRIVE IKE DUE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS GULF COAST. THERE ARE A
NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT WILL WEIGH IN ON THE EVENTUAL PATH
OF IKE...MAINLY THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. FOR NOW...WILL RELUCTANTLY
GO WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION...WHICH ALLOWS IKE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT ALABAMA. EVEN WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS...EXPECT
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...DEFINITE EMPHASIS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AND THE WHEREABOUTS OF IKE IS TO CHECK BACK OFTEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS WE NARROW IN ON AN EVENTUAL TRACK.
JD/81
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OUT THERE...BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FROM TAF SITES TO PRECLUDE THEIR MENTIONING IN THE
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. I STILL EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FROM I-65 WEST (ALREADY SEEING SOME RAIN-INDUCED
STRATUS AT BHM).
EVERYTHING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AND BECOME RELATIVELY
UNIFORM CLOUD COVERAGE BY 18Z SATURDAY...DIMINISHING TO NOTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE BY 00Z.
/61/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 87 62 91 62 90 / 20 10 0 10 10
ANNISTON 87 65 91 66 91 / 30 10 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 66 92 67 91 / 20 10 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 87 67 92 66 93 / 10 10 0 10 10
CALERA 88 66 92 67 92 / 20 10 0 10 10
AUBURN 87 68 90 69 89 / 30 20 10 10 20
MONTGOMERY 90 69 93 68 92 / 30 10 10 10 20
TROY 89 68 91 68 91 / 40 20 10 10 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
81/12
000
FXUS64 KMOB 060930
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
ARE EXPECTED. PARTLY TO OCNLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY TODAY OVER
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...GENERALLY OVER AL/FL ZONES...
WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL FADE AWAY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...
AND WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FRONT EXTENDING FROM REMNANTS
OF GUSTAV MOVING OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL
STORM HANNA INTO COASTAL NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH DEEP LAYERED WATER VAPOR AVAILABILITY. GFS COMPUTES
THAT 1000-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM APPROXIMATELY MOIST ADIABATIC TO A
DEGREE OR SO LESS...CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500...PW ABATING TO ABOUT 1.5
INCHES ON AVERAGE IN THE CWA...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
SUGGESTING NOT SUCH WIDESPREAD EFFICIENT RAINMAKING AS IN THE DAYS
FOLLOWING GUSTAV. AFTER A DRY PERIOD EARLY IN THE WEEK ONCE AGAIN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MESOSCALE WILL TAKE OVER THE LEFT SEAT. THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL THEN FORCE THE CONVECTION IN SOMETHING RESEMBLING
AN ORGANIZED FASHION FROM MIDWEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS BECOMING CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
ALBEIT WITH A WARY EYE...THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF IKE DOES
NOT ALLOW US MUCH DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE. THERE IS HOWEVER A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH TENDS TO ERODE AROUND THE END OF
THE PERIOD...BUT GFS HAS GONE THROUGH SEVERAL UNDULATIONS OF
INDECISION THESE PAST FEW CYCLES. THAT BEING SAID...STAY TUNED. 77/BD
&&
.MARINE...A MAINLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW...WITH
RESULTANT SMALL SEA STATES...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW WILL HAVE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES.
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE
CONSISTENTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES...APPROACHING
SCEC OR SCA LEVELS BY WEEKS END. NHC FORECAST HAS HURRICANE IKE
ENTERING THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE MARINE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION [06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA (AL/FL ZONES). WILL HAVE SOME PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY...BUT LOW VSBY WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT
VERY WIDESPREAD. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 25 KFT TO 030 KFT...EXCEPT
LOWER WITH SCATTERED CB`S AND HEAVY RAIN..AND OF COURSE FOG. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. 77/BD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 70 91 70 / 20 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 89 73 91 72 / 30 10 10 10
DESTIN 84 79 85 79 / 30 20 20 10
EVERGREEN 90 68 93 67 / 30 20 10 10
WAYNESBORO 88 66 92 67 / 20 10 05 10
CAMDEN 90 67 93 67 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 060705
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE STRETCH FROM
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TN VALLEY
(INCLUDING MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA) AND TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROWING RIBBON OF
MOISTURE AND SHEAR ZONE ALSO TIED TO THIS AXIS...SITUATED BETWEEN
T.S. HANNA AND BROAD TROFINESS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...PLAINS...AND GREAT LAKES.
.SHORT TERM...
THE LOWEST CEILINGS WERE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING SFC
TROF WHICH IS NOW PAST THE I-59 CORRIDOR. IRONICALLY...THE SKY WAS
STILL CLEAR AT FORT PAYNE (K4A9)...BUT NOT FOR LONG. RADAR
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHRINKING PATCH OF SHRA ALONG AND JUST E
OF I-65...APPROACHING THE HSV METRO. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTIONS OF
THE DAY ARE PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...AND HOW LONG
TO KEEP CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING DOWNGLIDE/SUBSIDENCE AS THE SHEAR AXIS DROPS
SE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD SPEED UP LATER TODAY AS HANNA MOVES
RAPIDLY UP THE COASTLINE.
SHALLOW CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE EASTERN CLOUD EDGE...WHICH MAY YET SIT ALONG THE
I-59 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE/-RA WILL
BE INCLUDED EARLY THIS MORNING ELSEWHERE BEFORE CIGS CLIMB. THE
NAM FORECAST SOUNDING IS RATHER PESSIMISTIC FOR MUCH CLEARING UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO I HAVE DROPPED TEMP EXPECTATIONS CLOSER
TO SUGGESTED MOS (M80S).
FOR TONIGHT...AS WINDS DIMINISH...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY WET
GROUND...RADIATION FG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS PROBABLE. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW LITTLE SUN IS SEEN TODAY. GIVEN DRY
ADVECTION...CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FG...BUT
COULD BE DENSE IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE IT.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHEAR AXIS WILL BE TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH...AND THE DEEPER CP AIRMASS BOTTLED UP TO THE N.
LIGHT NE FLOW AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE WX
HOWEVER...DESPITE TEMPS REACHING NEAR 90 BOTH DAYS.
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...FOR OBVIOUS REASONS WRT TO THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE
IKE. 00Z MODELS AND NHC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF IKE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF INSTEAD OF BEING TURNED N. THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK IS KEPT WELL TO OUR N AS A
RESULT...WITH A DEEPER EASTERLY FETCH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURNING TUE-THU...AND A GENERAL
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON PULSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 85 60 90 63 91 / 10 0 0 0 10
SHOALS 85 58 89 63 92 / 10 0 0 0 10
CULLMAN 81 63 88 62 89 / 20 0 0 0 10
FAYETTEVILLE 83 60 89 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 10
ALBERTVILLE 83 63 89 64 91 / 20 0 0 0 10
FORT PAYNE 87 60 89 60 90 / 20 0 0 0 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
KULA
000
FXUS64 KHUN 060525
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCTD SHRA CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE HSV AREA...AND THIS MAY PERSIST
THRU 09Z OR EVEN BEYOND. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS EXPECT A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR VIS IN SHRA...BUT PCPN COVERAGE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...LOW-END MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS DESPITE THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A DROP TO IFR CIGS OR OTHER VISBY
OBSTRUCTION BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ODDS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT EITHER
SITE ARE THAT HIGH. STRATUS MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP BUT EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY MID-MORNING AT MSL...MIDDAY AT HSV...AFTER WHICH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS ILL-DEFINED...BUT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE
TROUGHING/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER NE ALABAMA. SCATTERED
MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS EXTENDING WELL BACK TO THE WEST...PAST THE
MS RIVER. HOWEVER LIKE LAST NIGHT...PARTS OF JACKSON...DEKALB...AND
MARSHALL COUNTIES ARE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FEW ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL DECREASE
SKY COVER FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT INDICATE
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO...POPS WILL BE LOWERED FOR NW
ALABAMA...AS MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO HOURLY GRIDDED FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED GRIDS ARE ALREADY SHIPPED.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR AND
ANY REMAINING FOG LIFTS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. OF COURSE...THIS
DOES DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK/DISSIPATE. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING
OVER THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY...NW FLOW AND THE BUILDING RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST AREAS.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT GENERALLY LOW END POPS FOR TUESDAY AS NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND DRY PROFILE ALOFT.
BY THIS POINT...HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO BE EITHER ON TOP OF
SOUTHERN FL OR ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE TRACKS ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT...HAVE KEPT MOST OF IKE INFLUENCES
OUTSIDE OF FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
ONCE THE FROPA HAS OCCURRED ON TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH EXPECTED ON
THURS/FRIDAY. STRENGTH AND TRACK ARE DEFINITELY SUSPECT AT THIS
POINT. GFS IS SHOWING A STRONGER PUSH THAN ECMWF. HOWEVER...THIS
COULD BE THE FIRST POSSIBLE COLD PUSH...SIGN OF AUTUMN.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BCC
UPDATE...16/LAMB
PREV DISCUSSION...77/LATIMER
000
FXUS64 KBMX 060453
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT SLOW TO DIMINISH...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT LEAVING SPURIOUS LIGHT
RAIN PAST MIDNIGHT. JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY TEMP...DEWPT...AND SKY COVER GRIDS.
ELSEWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OUT THERE...BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FROM TAF SITES TO PRECLUDE THEIR MENTIONING IN THE
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. I STILL EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FROM I-65 WEST (ALREADY SEEING SOME RAIN-INDUCED
STRATUS AT BHM).
EVERYTHING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AND BECOME RELATIVELY
UNIFORM CLOUD COVERAGE BY 18Z SATURDAY...DIMINISHING TO NOTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE BY 00Z.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 060300 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...ZONE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO DECREASE SKY COVER IN THE NE
ALA ZONES AND DECREASE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THE SHOALS AREA.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMP...DEWPT...AND
WIND GRIDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS ILL-DEFINED...BUT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE
TROUGHING/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER NE ALABAMA. SCATTERED
MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS EXTENDING WELL BACK TO THE WEST...PAST THE
MS RIVER. HOWEVER LIKE LAST NIGHT...PARTS OF JACKSON...DEKALB...AND
MARSHALL COUNTIES ARE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FEW ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL DECREASE
SKY COVER FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT INDICATE
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO...POPS WILL BE LOWERED FOR NW
ALABAMA...AS MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO HOURLY GRIDDED FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED GRIDS ARE ALREADY SHIPPED.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE TO 00Z TAFS...
WEAK CDFRNT HAS PASSED BOTH MSL AND HSV WITH N/NWLY WINDS. SCTD SHRA
MOVEMENT REMAINS VERY SLOW AND MAY LINGER AT HSV WELL BEYOND 04Z.
LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IS NOW FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THINGS
BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF LOW STRATUS...BRINGING IFR-MVFR CIGS...TO MUCH
OF NRN MS...WRN TN...AND ERN AR. THUS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYBREAK. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED BY NOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR AND
ANY REMAINING FOG LIFTS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. OF COURSE...THIS
DOES DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK/DISSIPATE. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING
OVER THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY...NW FLOW AND THE BUILDING RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST AREAS.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT GENERALLY LOW END POPS FOR TUESDAY AS NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND DRY PROFILE ALOFT.
BY THIS POINT...HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO BE EITHER ON TOP OF
SOUTHERN FL OR ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE TRACKS ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT...HAVE KEPT MOST OF IKE INFLUENCES
OUTSIDE OF FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
ONCE THE FROPA HAS OCCURRED ON TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH EXPECTED ON
THURS/FRIDAY. STRENGTH AND TRACK ARE DEFINITELY SUSPECT AT THIS
POINT. GFS IS SHOWING A STRONGER PUSH THAN ECMWF. HOWEVER...THIS
COULD BE THE FIRST POSSIBLE COLD PUSH...SIGN OF AUTUMN.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...16/LAMB
PREV DISCUSSION...77/LATIMER
000
FXUS64 KBMX 060235
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EVENING WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT SLOW TO DIMINISH...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT LEAVING SPURIOUS LIGHT
RAIN PAST MIDNIGHT. JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY TEMP...DEWPT...AND SKY COVER GRIDS.
ELSEWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BAND OF SHOWERS IN WEST ALABAMA IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD...
BUT IT IS MOVING EASTWARD. I DO EXPECT THE THE AREAL EXTENT TO
DECREASE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT PROBABLY WON`T DIMINISH
COMPLETELY. TO THE EAST OF THIS RAIN BAND...THE AIR MASS IS
NOTICEABLY DRIER AND CLEARER THAN IT IS ALONG AND WEST OF IT. THAT
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. TCL
STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED
LOWER CEILINGS (PERHAPS BELOW 1000 FEET). AS ONE HEADS EAST TO THE
I-65 CORRIDOR...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT COMES LATER IN THE
NIGHT...AND IT SHOULD HAVE LESS COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BY THE TIME YOU GET TO ANB AND TOI...
THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD FIRM...SO I KEPT CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX OUT INTO
A FAIRLY UNIFORM CUMULUS FIELD...WITH BASES AVERAGING BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 FEET.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 060016 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
715 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK CDFRNT HAS NOW PASSED BOTH KMSL AND KHSV THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING AROUND TO NWLY/NRLY. SCT SHRA
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. BELIEVE PRECIP HAS ENDED AT MSL...HOWEVER HSV MAY STILL BE
AFFECTED BY OCCNL SHRA AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 4Z. THUNDER CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT HSV...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAF ATTM. OVERNIGHT...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF LOW STRATUS...BRINGING
IFR-MVFR CIGS...TO MUCH OF NRN MS...WRN TN...AND ERN AR. THUS MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYBREAK. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED BY NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS VERY SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
SPARKING OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY IN
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. CONTINUED ISOLATED OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
WEAK LIFT THROUGH 12Z SAT WITH LIFT DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING TO
SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG AS FRONT EXITS AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR AND
ANY REMAINING FOG LIFTS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. OF COURSE...THIS
DOES DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK/DISSIPATE. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING
OVER THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY...NW FLOW AND THE BUILDING RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST AREAS.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT GENERALLY LOW END POPS FOR TUESDAY AS NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND DRY PROFILE ALOFT.
BY THIS POINT...HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO BE EITHER ON TOP OF
SOUTHERN FL OR ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE TRACKS ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT...HAVE KEPT MOST OF IKE INFLUENCES
OUTSIDE OF FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
ONCE THE FROPA HAS OCCURRED ON TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH EXPECTED ON
THURS/FRIDAY. STRENGTH AND TRACK ARE DEFINITELY SUSPECT AT THIS
POINT. GFS IS SHOWING A STRONGER PUSH THAN ECMWF. HOWEVER...THIS
COULD BE THE FIRST POSSIBLE COLD PUSH...SIGN OF AUTUMN.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...16/LAMB
PUBLIC...77/LATIMER
000
FXUS64 KBMX 052346
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...BATTLE OF THE AIR MASSES IS ON BETWEEN UPPER TROF JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TROPICAL STORM HANNA. EXTENSIVE
BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANT TROF OF GUSTAV. THIS TROF WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA. SUBSIDENCE ON WEST SIDE OF HANNA
IS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES OVER EAST ALABAMA. UPPER TROF WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT AS HANNA REMAINS THE DOMINATE
FEATURE. ONCE HANNA GETS NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...WEAK UPPER TROF
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF I-65. UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT
BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM EXITING UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY
WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES A COOL FRONT
TOWARDS ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM RUNS OUT OF STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
TENNESSEE MAINLY DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF BUT
ALSO DUE TO INFLUENCES OF HURRICANE IKE. CONTINUED WITH SMALL RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST DEPENDS HEAVILY ON
TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MAKE A NORTHWARD TURN. FORECAST
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SHOW AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF IKE WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BAND OF SHOWERS IN WEST ALABAMA IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD...
BUT IT IS MOVING EASTWARD. I DO EXPECT THE THE AREAL EXTENT TO
DECREASE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT PROBABLY WON`T DIMINISH
COMPLETELY. TO THE EAST OF THIS RAIN BAND...THE AIR MASS IS
NOTICEABLY DRIER AND CLEARER THAN IT IS ALONG AND WEST OF IT. THAT
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. TCL
STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED
LOWER CEILINGS (PERHAPS BELOW 1000 FEET). AS ONE HEADS EAST TO THE
I-65 CORRIDOR...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT COMES LATER IN THE
NIGHT...AND IT SHOULD HAVE LESS COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BY THE TIME YOU GET TO ANB AND TOI...
THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD FIRM...SO I KEPT CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX OUT INTO
A FAIRLY UNIFORM CUMULUS FIELD...WITH BASES AVERAGING BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 FEET.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 052035
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LATEST CHARTS SHOWS
THAT FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW SHOWN AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV OVER
LAKE HURON TO THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE TO THE NEW ORLEANS
AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP LAYERED WATER VAPOR AVAILABILITY IS
THERE. CAPE 800 TO 900 AND PW REMAINING 2 TO 2.25 INCHES MOST PLACES
IN THE CWA...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE SUGGESTING EFFICIENT
RAINMAKING. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS FROM THE GULF TO WELL INLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
IN PLACES WHERE TRAINING CELLS OCCUR. CONVECTION ABATING OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM LENGTH TROUGH (WAVENUMBER 6 OR 7) REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH RESPECTIVE RIDGES OVER 70 WEST AND 125 WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FRONT...TRAILING FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND ALIGN ITSELF AND
OTHER ATTENDANT FEATURES WITH THE COAST ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS FRONTOLYSIS SETS IN AS EXPECTED.
/77
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NO CHANGES A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRAILING FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NEAR
QUEBEC...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PLUME TAKING ON THE SAME ORIENTATION. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY IS REINFORCED BY A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT ON TUESDAY FROM A CANADIAN SYSTEM. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
1.9 INCHES OR SO. CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WILL HAVE SMALL POPS ON MONDAY THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY DUE TO ENHANCED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE PERIPHERY OF IKE. A PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIMIT POPS THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW
FOR THURSDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF IKE.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLE. VERY END OF FORECAST MAY OR MAY
NOT BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
/77
&&
.AVIATION...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST FEW DAYS. MVFR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUDINESS OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DOUBT THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET THAT FAR BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. PATCHES OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG RETURN NEAR DAWN SATURDAY
BUT LOW VSBY WILL BE BRIEF. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 025 TO 030 EXCEPT
LOWER ON CB WITH HEAVY RAIN..AND OF COURSE FOG.
&&
.MARINE....THE MARINE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
HANNAH`S CIRCULATION AND A SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MAY
BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY MID NEXT WEEK AS IKE
MAY BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THEN.
/11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 71 88 70 91 / 30 20 10 10
PENSACOLA 73 89 73 91 / 40 30 10 10
DESTIN 78 84 79 85 / 20 30 20 20
EVERGREEN 68 90 68 93 / 40 30 20 10
WAYNESBORO 67 88 66 92 / 20 20 10 05
CAMDEN 68 90 67 93 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 052000
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...BATTLE OF THE AIR MASSES IS ON BETWEEN UPPER TROF JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TROPICAL STORM HANNA. EXTENSIVE BAND
OF CLOUDS EXTENDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANT TROF OF GUSTAV. THIS TROF WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA. SUBSIDENCE ON WEST SIDE OF
HANNA IS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES OVER EAST ALABAMA. UPPER TROF WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT AS HANNA REMAINS THE
DOMINATE FEATURE. ONCE HANNA GETS NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...WEAK
UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF I-65.
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS IT BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM EXITING UPPER LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY
WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES A COOL FRONT
TOWARDS ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM RUNS OUT OF STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
TENNESSEE MAINLY DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF BUT
ALSO DUE TO INFLUENCES OF HURRICANE IKE. CONTINUED WITH SMALL RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST DEPENDS HEAVILY ON
TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MAKE A NORTHWARD TURN. FORECAST
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SHOW AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF IKE WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FOR TCL...CEILINGS 3000 TO 5000 FEET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA CEILINGS 4000 TO
6000 FEET WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 21Z. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TOI AS
CHANCES REMAIN TOO SLIM HERE. AFTER 6Z WENT WITH BKN DECKS ACROSS
THE WEST AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET FOR BHM..TCL...AND EET. BY 10Z FOR MGM
AND TOI. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY 15 TO 16Z AND LEAVE BKN
CEILINGS AROUND 4000 TO 6000 FEET. LOWER AT MGM AND TOI...AS THE
TROUGH WILL BE NEARBY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 69 88 63 91 61 / 20 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 68 89 64 91 66 / 10 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 72 88 65 90 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 72 90 65 92 65 / 30 10 10 10 10
CALERA 72 89 67 91 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
AUBURN 70 91 69 92 69 / 10 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 72 91 69 93 68 / 10 30 10 10 10
TROY 72 91 69 92 67 / 10 30 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 051936
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD RIDGE EXISTS BELOW THE GULF OF ALASKA.
TELECONNECTIONS WITH THIS RIDGE AND THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
ARE KEEPING A BROAD TROUGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
U.S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT LEFT FROM GUSTAV REMNANTS...THAT ARE NOW
COMPLETELY ENVELOPED IN THE OVERALL FLOW OVER ONTARIO...IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MS/AL BORDER AND STRETCHES NORTH OVER OHIO
AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
TROPICS...TS HANNA CURRENTLY SPINNING OFFSHORE OF NE FL WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY TOMORROW.
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. IT HAS ENCOUNTERED SOME
WEAK SHEAR WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME WEAKENING...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP/REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
PRIOR TO POSSIBLE LANDFALL ON EAST COAST. HOWEVER...IMMENSE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON IF LANDFALL WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG THE EAST
COAST OR IF IT WILL PROCEED WESTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TS JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE NW AND STAY IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC...AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO
CONTINUE SPARKING OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED T-STORMS
MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. CONTINUED ISOLATED OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW WEAK LIFT THROUGH 12Z SAT WITH LIFT DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING TO
SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG AS FRONT EXITS AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR AND
ANY REMAINING FOG LIFTS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. OF COURSE...THIS
DOES DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK/DISSIPATE. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING
OVER THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY...NW FLOW AND THE BUILDING RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST AREAS.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT GENERALLY LOW END POPS FOR TUESDAY AS NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND DRY PROFILE ALOFT.
BY THIS POINT...HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO BE EITHER ON TOP OF
SOUTHERN FL OR ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE TRACKS ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT...HAVE KEPT MOST OF IKE INFLUENCES
OUTSIDE OF FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
ONCE THE FROPA HAS OCCURRED ON TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH EXPECTED ON
THURS/FRIDAY. STRENGTH AND TRACK ARE DEFINITELY SUSPECT AT THIS
POINT. GFS IS SHOWING A STRONGER PUSH THAN ECMWF. HOWEVER...THIS
COULD BE THE FIRST POSSIBLE COLD PUSH...SIGN OF AUTUMN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 69 88 64 90 63 / 30 10 10 0 0
SHOALS 67 88 63 89 63 / 30 10 10 0 0
CULLMAN 68 87 64 88 62 / 30 10 10 0 0
FAYETTEVILLE 67 86 63 89 63 / 30 10 10 0 0
ALBERTVILLE 69 87 65 89 64 / 20 20 10 0 0
FORT PAYNE 65 85 59 89 60 / 20 30 10 0 0
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
77/LATIMER
000
FXUS64 KMOB 051827 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
125 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
AVIATION UPDATE FOR 05/18Z...SIMILIAR CONDITIONS TO LAST FEW DAYS.
MVFR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE AREA TTHIS AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUDINESS OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS AND DOUBT THE PRESIPITATION WILL GET THAT FAR BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG RETURN
NEAR DAWN SATURDAY BUT LOW VSBY WILL BE BRIEF. /11
************************PREVIOUS*********************************
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO THE
LOUISIANA COAST...GENERALLY WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE PERSISTS WITH PWS
STILL AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE CWFA. FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF BANDS STRETCHING FROM THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS TO WELL INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ALSO MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE THIS BANDING OCCURS MOSTLY DUE TO TRAINING ECHOES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AS TEMPS COOL AFTER SUNSET. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAVMOS FOR
TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. /32
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TRAILING FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NEAR QUEBEC...WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND TAKE ON MORE OF
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PLUME TAKING ON THE SAME ORIENTATION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS. THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY IS REINFORCED BY A WEAK TRAILING FRONT ON TUESDAY
FROM A CANADIAN SYSTEM. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.9 INCHES OR SO. CONSIDERING
THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WILL HAVE SMALL POPS ON
MONDAY THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE
PERIPHERY OF IKE. A PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT POPS THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF IKE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLE.
/29
&&
.AVIATION...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MOB...PNS AND
BFM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. /32
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA WILL STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
EXPECTED. /32
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 73 88 70 / 50 20 20 20
PENSACOLA 88 74 89 73 / 30 20 30 20
DESTIN 88 76 87 75 / 20 20 40 20
EVERGREEN 89 70 89 68 / 40 20 40 20
WAYNESBORO 87 68 89 66 / 50 20 20 10
CAMDEN 89 69 90 67 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
29 EVERSOLE
32 ESBENSEN
000
FXUS64 KHUN 051801 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE MUSCLE SHOALS AIRPORT FROM THE SSW
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILING OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE...WHICH IS NOTED THROUGH 20Z. THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KMSL
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR WEATHER OVER THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT COULD BECOME MVFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 05/2000Z
AND 06/0200Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A T-STORM BUT DID NOT PUT THIS IN THE
TAF ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AT BOTH SITES...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT KMSL THROUGH 12Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MIX OF WEATHER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE PRESENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN WERE NOTED ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY TN...
AS WELL AS JACKSON...DEKALB AND MARSHALL COUNTIES OF NE AL. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AL...EXTENDING N/S FROM WEST OF THE
QUAD CITIES TO EAST OF NEW ORLEANS.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE
I-65 CORRIDOR REGION SOMETIME THIS EVENING. LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD GET MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES MEANS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT. GIVEN EXPECTED COVERAGE...DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO BECOME AN ISSUE.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN IS PUTTING A DAMPER ON HIGH TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL THUS FAR. A LET UP IN THE SHOWERS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
IS ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM. THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE TEMPS ALONE IN AREAS THAT HAVE RANGES. WILL ADD A RANGE FOR THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA GROUP FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
RSB
000
FXUS64 KBMX 051745
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION AND TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT SHOULD CONTINUE A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PUSH
TODAY. EXPECT LIMITED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF I 65 THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING. ANOTHER
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR TODAY IN THE EAST IS THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE THAT
IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AS TS HANNA TRACKS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST A TAD...AND RAISED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT
WAY. MAY SEE SOME 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FOR TCL...CEILINGS 3000 TO 5000 FEET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA CEILINGS 4000 TO
6000 FEET WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 21Z. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TOI AS
CHANCES REMAIN TOO SLIM HERE. AFTER 6Z WENT WITH BKN DECKS ACROSS
THE WEST AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET FOR BHM..TCL...AND EET. BY 10Z FOR MGM
AND TOI. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY 15 TO 16Z AND LEAVE BKN
CEILINGS AROUND 4000 TO 6000 FEET. LOWER AT MGM AND TOI...AS THE
TROUGH WILL BE NEARBY.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
16
000
FXUS64 KHUN 051544 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1044 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...
FRESHEN MORNING WORDING IN ON-GOING FORECASTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MIX OF WEATHER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE PRESENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN WERE NOTED ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY TN...
AS WELL AS JACKSON...DEKALB AND MARSHALL COUNTIES OF NE AL. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AL...EXTENDING N/S FROM WEST OF THE
QUAD CITIES TO EAST OF NEW ORLEANS.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE
I-65 CORRIDOR REGION SOMETIME THIS EVENING. LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD GET MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES MEANS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT. GIVEN EXPECTED COVERAGE...DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO BECOME AN ISSUE.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN IS PUTTING A DAMPER ON HIGH TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL THUS FAR. A LET UP IN THE SHOWERS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
IS ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM. THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE TEMPS ALONE IN AREAS THAT HAVE RANGES. WILL ADD A RANGE FOR THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA GROUP FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... / ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008 /
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS ONCE GUSTAV ACCELERATED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF CHICAGO. THE
COLD FRONT TRAILING IT IS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI...BUT IT IS MAKING EXCRUCIATINGLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
AS IT RUNS INTO A WEAK UPPER RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES
AND THE UPPER REFLECTION OF T.S. HANNA. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH...A DRY PERIOD WILL BE USHERED IN FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MY FORECAST POPS ARE PROBABLY A BIT DECEIVING. I AM GOING WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT THIS REALLY LOOKS LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. AT 07Z...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
MODELS TEND TO INDICATE THIS WILL CONTINUE. WILL TAPER POPS DOWNWARD
FAIRLY SHARPLY EAST OF I-65...AND ALONG THE GA STATE LINE THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE NO RAIN AT ALL TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS SLOWER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AS
SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO SMALL RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE ALL NIGHT. SINCE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE AS MUCH ON RADAR IN 24 HOURS AS THERE IS CURRENTLY.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OR WASH OUT ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEAST ALABAMA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST THREE PERIODS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.
EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH NO RAIN. COOL MORNINGS BUT RATHER WARM DAYS LOOK
LIKELY. ANOTHER WEAK AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...SO I
HAVE RETAINED THE 20 POP IN THAT PERIOD. THEN A RENEWED DRY AIR PUSH
WILL PUT THE AREA BACK IN THE COOL MORNING/WARM DAY PATTERN FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND MOST OF
THAT UNCERTAINTY CAN BE BLAMED ON HURRICANE IKE. WHILE IT WOULD BE
IMPROPER TO ASSUME THAT IKE WILL HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...AND WHERE IKE WILL
GO...VARY QUITE WILDLY. WITH THAT SAID...A WESTWARD TREND HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN NOTED WITH THE FORECAST FOR IKE. THE GFS "MEANDER"
OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE DEPICTED A PATH RATHER SIMILAR TO GUSTAV. THE
NHC FORECAST 120 HOUR POINT FROM THE 03Z ADVISORY IS NEAR THE SOUTH
TIP OF FLORIDA AND HINTS AT THE BEGINNING OF A RECURVE.
BOTTOM LINE ON THE LATTER PERIODS IS THAT I WILL NOT FACTOR IN
ANYTHING FROM THE TROPICS. FOR NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...WHICH HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES. OPERATIONAL GFS WAS FAR TOO STRONG WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH (A USUAL BIAS) AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...KMSL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCT SHOWERS BEFORE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER TODAY
AND WINDS BECOME NNW. EXPECTING PREDOM MVFR/VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH VIS
MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH LESS MOISTURE PRESENT. BOTH SITES WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VIS AFTER PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RSB
PRE DISCUSSION...JE/23
AVIATION...JLL
000
FXUS64 KBMX 051137
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT SHOULD CONTINUE A VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PUSH TODAY...WITH EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AS
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING. HANNA WILL APPROACH
THE GA/SC COAST THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE
STORM WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION EAST OF INTERSTATE 65...MOST
PRONOUNCED ALONG THE GA STATE LINE. HOWEVER...AS HANNA TRACKS UP
TH EAST COAST ITS IMPACT IN CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY.
SATURDAYS FORECAST IS TRICKY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE AL GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS TAKES
THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...RIDING ALONG THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
STATE. IF HIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS...SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE
RATHER WET. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POPS RANGE FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY AT BIRMINGHAM. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER MEMBERS...BUT
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SOUTH WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THAT
SURFACE LOW.
GUIDANCE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE
LOW 90S. NOT SEEING ANY BIG WEATHER MAKERS BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
SHOULD BE AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
NEITHER IKE NOR JOSEPHINE SHOULD IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IKE DEFINITELY WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...BUT COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE GULF
AFTER MIDWEEK.
12/SIRMON
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FOR TCL...CEILINGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET THROUGH 16Z WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. AFTER 16Z EXPECT CEILINGS 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA CEILINGS 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
12/50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 051132 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...KMSL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCT SHOWERS BEFORE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER TODAY
AND WINDS BECOME NNW. EXPECTING PREDOM MVFR/VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH VIS
MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH LESS MOISTURE PRESENT. BOTH SITES WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VIS AFTER PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS ONCE GUSTAV ACCELERATED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF CHICAGO. THE
COLD FRONT TRAILING IT IS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI...BUT IT IS MAKING EXCRUCIATINGLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
AS IT RUNS INTO A WEAK UPPER RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES
AND THE UPPER REFLECTION OF T.S. HANNA. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH...A DRY PERIOD WILL BE USHERED IN FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MY FORECAST POPS ARE PROBABLY A BIT DECEIVING. I AM GOING WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT THIS REALLY LOOKS LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. AT 07Z...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
MODELS TEND TO INDICATE THIS WILL CONTINUE. WILL TAPER POPS DOWNWARD
FAIRLY SHARPLY EAST OF I-65...AND ALONG THE GA STATE LINE THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE NO RAIN AT ALL TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS SLOWER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AS
SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO SMALL RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE ALL NIGHT. SINCE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE AS MUCH ON RADAR IN 24 HOURS AS THERE IS CURRENTLY.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OR WASH OUT ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEAST ALABAMA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST THREE PERIODS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.
EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH NO RAIN. COOL MORNINGS BUT RATHER WARM DAYS LOOK
LIKELY. ANOTHER WEAK AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...SO I
HAVE RETAINED THE 20 POP IN THAT PERIOD. THEN A RENEWED DRY AIR PUSH
WILL PUT THE AREA BACK IN THE COOL MORNING/WARM DAY PATTERN FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND MOST OF
THAT UNCERTAINTY CAN BE BLAMED ON HURRICANE IKE. WHILE IT WOULD BE
IMPROPER TO ASSUME THAT IKE WILL HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...AND WHERE IKE WILL
GO...VARY QUITE WILDLY. WITH THAT SAID...A WESTWARD TREND HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN NOTED WITH THE FORECAST FOR IKE. THE GFS "MEANDER"
OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE DEPICTED A PATH RATHER SIMILAR TO GUSTAV. THE
NHC FORECAST 120 HOUR POINT FROM THE 03Z ADVISORY IS NEAR THE SOUTH
TIP OF FLORIDA AND HINTS AT THE BEGINNING OF A RECURVE.
BOTTOM LINE ON THE LATTER PERIODS IS THAT I WILL NOT FACTOR IN
ANYTHING FROM THE TROPICS. FOR NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...WHICH HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES. OPERATIONAL GFS WAS FAR TOO STRONG WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH (A USUAL BIAS) AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JLL
DISCUSSION...JE/23
000
FXUS64 KMOB 051000
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO THE
LOUISIANA COAST...GENERALLY WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE PERSISTS WITH PWS
STILL AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE CWFA. FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF BANDS STRETCHING FROM THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS TO WELL INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ALSO MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE THIS BANDING OCCURS MOSTLY DUE TO TRAINING ECHOES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AS TEMPS COOL AFTER SUNSET. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAVMOS FOR
TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. /32
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TRAILING FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NEAR QUEBEC...WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND TAKE ON MORE OF
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PLUME TAKING ON THE SAME ORIENTATION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS. THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY IS REINFORCED BY A WEAK TRAILING FRONT ON TUESDAY
FROM A CANADIAN SYSTEM. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.9 INCHES OR SO. CONSIDERING
THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WILL HAVE SMALL POPS ON
MONDAY THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE
PERIPHERY OF IKE. A PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT POPS THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF IKE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLE.
/29
&&
.AVIATION...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MOB...PNS AND
BFM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. /32
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA WILL STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
EXPECTED. /32
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 73 88 70 / 50 20 20 20
PENSACOLA 88 74 89 73 / 30 20 30 20
DESTIN 88 76 87 75 / 20 20 40 20
EVERGREEN 89 70 89 68 / 40 20 40 20
WAYNESBORO 87 68 89 66 / 50 20 20 10
CAMDEN 89 69 90 67 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
29 EVERSOLE
32 ESBENSEN
000
FXUS64 KBMX 050847
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT SHOULD CONTINUE A VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PUSH TODAY...WITH EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AS
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING. HANNA WILL APPROACH
THE GA/SC COAST THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE
STORM WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION EAST OF INTERSTATE 65...MOST
PRONOUNCED ALONG THE GA STATE LINE. HOWEVER...AS HANNA TRACKS UP
TH EAST COAST ITS IMPACT IN CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY.
SATURDAYS FORECAST IS TRICKY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE AL GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS TAKES
THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...RIDING ALONG THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
STATE. IF HIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS...SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE
RATHER WET. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POPS RANGE FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY AT BIRMINGHAM. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER MEMBERS...BUT
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SOUTH WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THAT
SURFACE LOW.
GUIDANCE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE
LOW 90S. NOT SEEING ANY BIG WEATHER MAKERS BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
SHOULD BE AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
NEITHER IKE NOR JOSEPHINE SHOULD IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IKE DEFINITELY WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...BUT COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE GULF
AFTER MIDWEEK.
12/SIRMON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TCL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 08Z. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO 4-5KFT AFTER 15Z. INCLUDED VCSH AT
TCL BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 85 69 87 62 91 / 30 30 30 10 10
ANNISTON 87 69 87 65 91 / 20 30 30 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 86 69 86 67 90 / 40 30 20 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 86 69 87 65 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
CALERA 86 70 88 66 90 / 30 30 30 10 10
AUBURN 86 72 88 68 91 / 10 20 30 10 10
MONTGOMERY 89 71 89 68 92 / 20 20 30 10 10
TROY 89 72 89 68 93 / 20 20 40 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
07/07/07
000
FXUS64 KHUN 050757
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS ONCE GUSTAV ACCELERATED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF CHICAGO. THE
COLD FRONT TRAILING IT IS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI...BUT IT IS MAKING EXCRUCIATINGLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
AS IT RUNS INTO A WEAK UPPER RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES
AND THE UPPER REFLECTION OF T.S. HANNA. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH...A DRY PERIOD WILL BE USHERED IN FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MY FORECAST POPS ARE PROBABLY A BIT DECEIVING. I AM GOING WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT THIS REALLY LOOKS LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. AT 07Z...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
MODELS TEND TO INDICATE THIS WILL CONTINUE. WILL TAPER POPS DOWNWARD
FAIRLY SHARPLY EAST OF I-65...AND ALONG THE GA STATE LINE THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE NO RAIN AT ALL TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS SLOWER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AS
SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO SMALL RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE ALL NIGHT. SINCE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE AS MUCH ON RADAR IN 24 HOURS AS THERE IS CURRENTLY.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OR WASH OUT ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEAST ALABAMA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST THREE PERIODS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.
EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH NO RAIN. COOL MORNINGS BUT RATHER WARM DAYS LOOK
LIKELY. ANOTHER WEAK AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...SO I
HAVE RETAINED THE 20 POP IN THAT PERIOD. THEN A RENEWED DRY AIR PUSH
WILL PUT THE AREA BACK IN THE COOL MORNING/WARM DAY PATTERN FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND MOST OF
THAT UNCERTAINTY CAN BE BLAMED ON HURRICANE IKE. WHILE IT WOULD BE
IMPROPER TO ASSUME THAT IKE WILL HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...AND WHERE IKE WILL
GO...VARY QUITE WILDLY. WITH THAT SAID...A WESTWARD TREND HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN NOTED WITH THE FORECAST FOR IKE. THE GFS "MEANDER"
OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE DEPICTED A PATH RATHER SIMILAR TO GUSTAV. THE
NHC FORECAST 120 HOUR POINT FROM THE 03Z ADVISORY IS NEAR THE SOUTH
TIP OF FLORIDA AND HINTS AT THE BEGINNING OF A RECURVE.
BOTTOM LINE ON THE LATTER PERIODS IS THAT I WILL NOT FACTOR IN
ANYTHING FROM THE TROPICS. FOR NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...WHICH HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES. OPERATIONAL GFS WAS FAR TOO STRONG WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH (A USUAL BIAS) AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 86 69 88 64 90 / 40 30 10 10 10
SHOALS 83 67 87 63 89 / 70 30 10 10 10
CULLMAN 85 68 87 64 88 / 40 30 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 84 67 86 63 89 / 40 30 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 87 69 87 65 89 / 30 20 20 10 10
FORT PAYNE 86 65 85 60 89 / 20 20 30 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JE/23
000
FXUS64 KHUN 050529 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
1ST BAND OF SHRA AFFECTING THE HSV VICINITY HAS MOSTLY BROKEN
APART...WHILE THE 2ND ONE CONTINUES A VERY SLOW MARCH EWD. MVFR CIGS
MAY ARRIVE EARLIER BUT BRIEF VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS 2ND BAND WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 10Z AT THE EARLIEST.
WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TMRW...FOCUSED ON NWRN AL AND
MSL DURING THE MORNING HRS...AND HSV LATER TOWARDS MIDDAY. HOWEVER
TIMING REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND GENERALLY DO NOT BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING OR INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF A TSRA
THREAT. NWLY WIND SHIFT WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE ARND 00Z TMRW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF RAIN...ONE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ANOTHER TEASING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ALABAMA. THERE HAS BEEN
ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROPOGATION OF THIS PRECIP. MEANWHILE PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY DEKALB COUNTY...HAVE SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.
THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SLACKING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. THUS...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE POP FORECAST. IN FACT...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN NW ALABAMA CLOSER TO THE MORE PERSISTENT AXIS
OF PRECIP.
OTHERWISE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS...AND
DEWPOINTS...MOSTLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 230 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEHIND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CWFA. SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT
AS A VERY NARROW TONGUE OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THE NE MS/NW AL
BORDER. AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. MOST OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES AS THE FRONT ADVECTS SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH. WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 80S.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
T-STORMS MAINLY IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. OTHERWISE DRY AIR ALOFT AND AT SFC WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT SE AS RIDGE BUILDING BEGINS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO
SETUP OVER THE US WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH SETUP OVER THE SOUTH. NW
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TN VALLEY MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HURRICANE IKE IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS AS MAKING A TURN NORTH ACROSS
THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SOMETHING DIFFERENT TODAY WITH
THE HIGH WEAKENING AND BRINGING THE HURRICANE INTO THE GULF.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS AN ISSUE. THUS...NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN T-STORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE.
EXPECTING THAT DAYTIME TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORNING
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BCC
UPDATE...16/LAMB
PREV DISCUSSION...77/LATIMER
000
FXUS64 KBMX 050452
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SUBSIDED TO MAINLY GENERAL SHOWERS
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 KEEPING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN
ORDER...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TCL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 08Z. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO 4-5KFT AFTER 15Z. INCLUDED VCSH AT
TCL BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 050310 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1010 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ZONE AND GRIDDED FCSTS.
SKY COVER WAS DECREASED IN NE ALA FOR THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN N CENTRAL AL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF RAIN...ONE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ANOTHER TEASING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ALABAMA. THERE HAS BEEN
ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROPOGATION OF THIS PRECIP. MEANWHILE PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY DEKALB COUNTY...HAVE SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.
THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SLACKING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. THUS...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE POP FORECAST. IN FACT...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN NW ALABAMA CLOSER TO THE MORE PERSISTENT AXIS
OF PRECIP.
OTHERWISE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS...AND
DEWPOINTS...MOSTLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FROM 00Z TAFS.
CURRENTLY DEALING WITH TWO BANDS OF SHRA MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...ONE ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER AND ANOTHER NEAR THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THESE COULD RESULT IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KHSV
AND KMSL TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING INTO AT LEAST
THE MVFR RANGE. THOUGH VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING...AN OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED...AFFECTING KMSL MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND KHSV PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 230 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEHIND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CWFA. SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT
AS A VERY NARROW TONGUE OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THE NE MS/NW AL
BORDER. AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. MOST OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES AS THE FRONT ADVECTS SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH. WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 80S.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
T-STORMS MAINLY IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. OTHERWISE DRY AIR ALOFT AND AT SFC WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT SE AS RIDGE BUILDING BEGINS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO
SETUP OVER THE US WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH SETUP OVER THE SOUTH. NW
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TN VALLEY MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HURRICANE IKE IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS AS MAKING A TURN NORTH ACROSS
THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SOMETHING DIFFERENT TODAY WITH
THE HIGH WEAKENING AND BRINGING THE HURRICANE INTO THE GULF.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS AN ISSUE. THUS...NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN T-STORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE.
EXPECTING THAT DAYTIME TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORNING
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...16/LAMB
PREV DISCUSSION...77/LATIMER
000
FXUS64 KBMX 050302
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SUBSIDED TO MAINLY GENERAL SHOWERS
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 KEEPING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN
ORDER...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z. WILL BRING IN LOW CLOUDS SOONER AT
TCL...03Z. WITH RAINFALL AT TCL EARLIER...VIS COULD DROP TO IFR AT
TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO 4-5KFT AFTER 15Z.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 050253 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
953 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN (30 PERCENT) IN
THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY EAST OUT OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. GETTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THAT BROKEN
LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM TUPELO TO JUST EAST
OF MCCOMB...SO WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT IN THE WEST. FARTHER
EAST...TAPERED POPS BACK TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
LOOK TO BE GENERALY ON TRACK. FOR FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT THAT
RIBBON ON HIGHER 850-700 MB MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIP A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND THAT IS WHERE WE KEEP THE HIGHER
POPS GOING FOR TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...CHANGES FOR THE 10 PM PACKAGE
ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. GRIDS ALREADY SHIPPED...ZFP AND CWF OUT
SHORTLY. /05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
05/GARMON
000
FXUS64 KHUN 050000 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENTLY DEALING WITH TWO BANDS OF SHRA MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...ONE ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER AND ANOTHER NEAR THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THESE COULD RESULT IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
KHSV AND KMSL TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE. THOUGH VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING...AN OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED...AFFECTING KMSL MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND KHSV PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ISSUED 230 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CWFA. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS A VERY NARROW
TONGUE OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THE NE MS/NW AL BORDER. AS FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO SOME MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. MOST OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE FRONT ADVECTS SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
T-STORMS MAINLY IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. OTHERWISE DRY AIR ALOFT AND AT SFC WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT SE AS RIDGE BUILDING BEGINS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO
SETUP OVER THE US WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH SETUP OVER THE SOUTH. NW
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TN VALLEY MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HURRICANE IKE IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS AS MAKING A TURN NORTH ACROSS
THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SOMETHING DIFFERENT TODAY WITH
THE HIGH WEAKENING AND BRINGING THE HURRICANE INTO THE GULF.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS AN ISSUE. THUS...NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN T-STORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE.
EXPECTING THAT DAYTIME TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORNING
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...16/LAMB
PUBLIC...77/LATIMER
000
FXUS64 KBMX 042346
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATED...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...REMNANT LOW FROM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTING NORTHEAST. DEEPER MOISTURE ON
EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TO THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI
STATE LINE WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 7 PM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WEST OF I-65 AS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT
ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE ON WEST SIDE OF HANNAH WILL BE A FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR THOSE ALABAMA COUNTIES NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE. ONCE
HANNAH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO EAST ALABAMA...AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO EAST ALABAMA ON SATURDAY.
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND PUSH A SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROF WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DUE TO WEAKENING
LOW LEVEL FLOW CIRCULATION AROUND REMANDS OF GUSTAV...COOLER AIR
CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL NOT ADVECT INTO AREA AND
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY STATES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NORTH ALABAMA. LONG
RANGE MODELS REALLY DAMPEN OUT THIS TROF AND SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL ACROSS ALABAMA AS IT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. LEFT SMALL
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z. WILL BRING IN LOW CLOUDS SOONER AT
TCL...03Z. WITH RAINFALL AT TCL EARLIER...VIS COULD DROP TO IFR AT
TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO 4-5KFT AFTER 15Z.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
