000
FXUS66 KMTR 200601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 7:45 PM PST TUESDAY...A SOMEWHAT BROKEN AREA OF
STRATUS THAT COVERED THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW
COMPRESSED INTO A NARROWER STRIP OF STRATUS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE NOTED NEAR MONTEREY BAY. EAST
AND WEST OF THIS NARROW CLOUD BAND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR INDICATING
SUBSIDENCE. THE WIND FLOW PATTERN AT 925 MB INDICATES A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT NEAR THE COAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHAPING
THE STRATUS INTO ITS PRESENT FORMATION. 925 MB HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LANDMASS TONIGHT BUT
NOCTURNAL COOLING FAVORS LESS TO NO MIXING SO THE PROBABILITY OF
COASTAL STRATUS STICKING AROUND FOR THE NIGHT IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE POPPED UP A LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
THIS SUPPORTS STRATUS. BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST TRENDS FROM THE NAM
SHOW STRATUS AS WELL. PRESENT WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS LOOK
GOOD.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS WERE IN
THE MID 60S RIGHT AT THE COAST TO THE LOW 80S LIKE IN GILROY AND KING
CITY. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE GFS/ECMWF STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH
EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO NORCAL THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS APPEAR WEAKER WITH THIS SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN THE
INTERIM EXPECT THE WESTERLIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A FIRM FOOTING.
EXPECT USUAL SUMMER-TIME WEATHER WITH SOME NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES INLAND.

NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...AREAS OF STRATUS PERSIST
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT WITH PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER INLAND
AREAS. INLAND STATUS APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING RESULTING IN CEILINGS
MOVING IN AN OUT OF SOME TERMINALS. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS ESTABLISH THEMSELVES LATER TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 17Z-19Z WITH COASTAL TERMINALS
CLEARING OUT A BIT LATER.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 20 NM AND
                     SFO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: C WALBRUN

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KLOX 200505
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...MARINE LAYER NEAR 1200 FT AT LAX THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOCAL BIGHT MAINLY
ALONG AND OFF THE SAN COUNTY COAST EXTENDING TO NEAR CATALINA
ISLAND. AN EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH
THE LOW CLOUDS BACK UP THE COAST TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST OVERNIGHT
AND PROBABLY TO THE VTU COUNTY COAST LATE TONIGHT. ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING INLAND AND WILL AFFECT THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO MOVE UP THE SALINAS RIVER
VALLEY IN MONTEREY COUNTY AND AFFECT THE SALINAS VALLEY IN SLO
COUNTY BY MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE DISTRICT WILL HAVE
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THRU TONIGHT. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY CANYON
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

BROAD UPPER TROF OVER CA WILL FLATTEN OUT THRU WED...WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THU THRU FRI. WINDS AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST THRU THU THEN TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRI. NO MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
DISTRICT THRU THE PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A
WEAK EDDY DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT. VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THRU FRI ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AND INTO SOME OF THE VALLEYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODELS STILL INDICATING A BIT OF A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTHING DRAMATIC BUT
ENOUGH TO BRING DAYTIME HIGHS AT LEAST TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. NO SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SEEN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0450Z...HI CONFIDENCE IFR AND LIFR CIGS WILL AFFECT
KSMX AND KSBP OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
NOW THAT LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LOW MVFR CATS WILL AFFECT THE L.A.
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND LOW CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AFFECTING KBUR AND KVNY LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT KPRB
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ALL
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TO 19Z WED WITH VFR
THRU THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU WED.
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS WITH PERHAPS LOCAL LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KSBA
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

FOR KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE AIRFIELD. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z OR 19Z WED. NO WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFT 11Z AND CLEAR TO VFR
BY 16Z. SEEMS MORE LIKELY NOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED THRU WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/WOFFORD
AVIATION...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KSTO 200440
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BRINGING HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOS SHOWING UP ON MFR RADAR BUT
ALL WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVED THROUGH NORCAL THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED INTO NEVADA THIS
EVENING SO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING RUNNING SIMILAR OR JUST A BIT
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AFTER COMING IN WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO
MONDAYS. EXCEPTION WAS THE DELTA AND DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS WHERE A
LIGHTER DELTA BREEZE TODAY ALLOWED FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNINGS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WARMS A BIT TONIGHT OVER
LAST...LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A BIT MORE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOK OKAY.

UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 51N 138W FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
BC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO SKIM
FAR NORCAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW CROSSING FAR NORCAL ON THURSDAY. ALL OF
THESE SYSTEMS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO PRODUCE
SERIOUS PRECIP THREAT BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS OKAY BASED ON LATEST EVENING
NAM RUN. MAIN AFFECT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASON NORMALS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THIS WARMING TREND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUT
DAYTIME HIGHS STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR OR FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASON NORMALS THANKS TO A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST A
TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER IN HOW
DEEP THE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO CALIFORNIA BUT EVEN DEEPER GFS KEEPS
PRECIP THREAT MAINLY NORTH OF CWA.  MAIN EFFECT WILL BE COOLING
TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THROUGH THE DELTA WITH SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SACRAMENTO VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MIX OUT
THE MARINE LAYER SO MINIMAL OR NO COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE SACRAMENTO AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SKIM NORCAL ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH TO MID
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KHNX 200410
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
910 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING TO THE PAC NW
COAST WED. THIS WILL HELP REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL CA WED...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMP FCST SEVERAL DEGS TO MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE TODAY. SKIES ARE CLEAR AS LAST OF THE CIRRUS
DISSIPATES. REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVED THROUGH THE
DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...WILL NOT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS CLOUDS. CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODEL PROG
THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH EAST OF THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...MODEL ALSO PROG THE
UPPER TROF TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO RE-BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE MARINE LAYER THAT IS NOW DISSIPATING...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO START A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REACHED 11MB THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SFO TO LAS... WINDS OVER THE VALLEY HAVE BEEN BELOW 15 MPH.
YET...A LAG RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE OVER THE VALLEY TO LEVELS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH THIS
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAVE
SEEN WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADIENTS RELAX ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING. BEYOND
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN FALLING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROF ATTEMPTS TO MOVE ONSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
PROVIDE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BINGHAM/MOLINA
AVN/FW...MV/DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KSGX 200343
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
FAIR. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST MOVING ONSHORE. THE
00Z NKX SOUNDING HAD AN INVERSION BASED NEAR 1700 FT WITH DRY WLY
WINDS ALOFT. MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 8 MB
SAN-IPL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE PAST FAR TO THE N WED AND
THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN LOCAL HEIGHTS. MINOR TEMPS CHANGES WED THEN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND THU AND FRI...MAINLY INLAND. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN ABOUT 1500-2000 FT DEEP WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MOST SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE
INLAND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE LOCAL GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER HAZARD NEAR THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND LOCALLY IN THE
DESERTS WED. OTHERWISE...FAIR IN DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW WILL
BRING WARMER WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN MOST AREAS BUT A
LITTLE ABOVE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TURN MOVE SLY WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN OF LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL INDICATE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW LEVEL POPS BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
200308Z...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MARINE LAYER STRATUS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AT 03Z. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE AND PENETRATION
INLAND WITH BASES BETWEEN 1K AND 1.5K FT MSL...AND TOPS AOB FL020.
SOME 3-5SM VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST DUE
TO HAZE AND FOG AFTER 08Z. FAR INLAND...AND ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TOP
OF THE MARINE LAYER...INCLUDING RAMONA...MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN BTWN 10Z AND 15Z WED MORNING.
STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO BE RATHER THIN SO IT SHOULD MIX OUT BY 16Z
TUE. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER AND FAR INLAND SKIES WILL BE CLR AND VIS
UNRESTRICTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...JAD

000
FXUS66 KMTR 200245
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
745 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 7:45 PM PST TUESDAY...A SOMEWHAT BROKEN AREA OF
STRATUS THAT COVERED THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW
COMPRESSED INTO A NARROWER STRIP OF STRATUS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE NOTED NEAR MONTEREY BAY. EAST
AND WEST OF THIS NARROW CLOUD BAND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR INDICATING
SUBSIDENCE. THE WIND FLOW PATTERN AT 925 MB INDICATES A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT NEAR THE COAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHAPING
THE STRATUS INTO ITS PRESENT FORMATION. 925 MB HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LANDMASS TONIGHT BUT
NOCTURNAL COOLING FAVORS LESS TO NO MIXING SO THE PROBABILITY OF
COASTAL STRATUS STICKING AROUND FOR THE NIGHT IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE POPPED UP A LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
THIS SUPPORTS STRATUS. BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST TRENDS FROM THE NAM
SHOW STRATUS AS WELL. PRESENT WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS LOOK
GOOD.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS WERE IN
THE MID 60S RIGHT AT THE COAST TO THE LOW 80S LIKE IN GILROY AND KING
CITY. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE GFS/ECMWF STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH
EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO NORCAL THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS APPEAR WEAKER WITH THIS SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN THE
INTERIM EXPECT THE WESTERLIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A FIRM FOOTING.
EXPECT USUAL SUMMER-TIME WEATHER WITH SOME NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES INLAND.

NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE WEAK DRY COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WASN`T STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS
REMAINS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST. THE STRATUS
DECK IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED
AROUND 03Z-04Z OVER COASTAL TERMINALS (KSFO...KOAK...KMRY AND
KSNS) AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER INLAND TERMINALS (KSJC AND KSTS).
CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY BETWEEN 17Z-19Z WITH COASTAL
TERMINALS CLEARING OUT LATER.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 20 NM AND
                     SFO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: C WALBRUN

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS65 KPSR 200224
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR TIME STAMP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
725 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE ONLY
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WELL EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AND STAY ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ) AT 02Z...A REFLECTION OF A MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC TROFS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES NORTH OF AZ THIS WEEK. THIS WILL VEER WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION...IMPORTING DRIER AIR AND WARMER STABILIZING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CURRENT DRY FORECASTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...CONDITIONED DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WITH THE 500-400MB HIGH CENTERING SOMEWHERE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE
MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA...SO MAINTAINING A LOW GRADE
MONSOON FORECAST OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY...SPREADING THE SLIGHT CHANCES WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KNYL...
KBLH...AND KIPL AIRFIELDS.  CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY AIR HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /LESS THAN 20 PERCENT/ OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL SHOW LITTLE FLUCTUATION DAY-TO-DAY.
WINDS WILL FEATURE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THOUGH A BIT MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT. MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/WANEK/MEYERS
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ

000
FXUS66 KMTR 200012
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
510 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:30 PM PST TUESDAY...SATL IMAGERY INDC HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS WELL AS SOME STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE BAY. A TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS...AS WELL AS THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. THE FT ORD PROFILER INDC LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MARINE LAYER
WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT.

TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...
WITH THE NORTH BAY MUCH WARMER TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE
ONLY INTO THE 80S IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCATA-SFO IS BASICALLY FLAT WITH THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SFO-SAC AT 2.2 MB.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE TROF TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER...WITH THE MARINE LAYER RE-
ESTABLISHING ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.
WITH FLAT RIDGING TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH COASTAL TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND INLAND TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE GFS HINTS AT
AN OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD CLARIFY
THINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE WEAK DRY COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WASN`T STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS
REMAINS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST. THE STRATUS
DECK IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED
AROUND 03Z-04Z OVER COASTAL TERMINALS (KSFO...KOAK...KMRY AND
KSNS) AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER INLAND TERMINALS (KSJC AND KSTS).
CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY BETWEEN 17Z-19Z WITH COASTAL
TERMINALS CLEARING OUT LATER.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 20 NM AND
                     SFO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: C WALBRUN

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KSTO 192226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
325 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING AROUND
THIS TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING IS NOW IN NEVADA...WITH ANOTHER ONE POISED OFF OF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.  AS A RESULT...MID A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW.  MEANWHILE...THE MARINE LAYER APPEARS TO BE
WASHING OUT...WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING IT DOWN TO AROUND
1500 FEET.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DELTA AND THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  ELSEWHERE THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING TWO TO
FOUR DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  THEREFORE...BELIEVE
THIS EVENING WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND PLEASANT EVENING...WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARM THAN THIS
MORNINGS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.  IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH OR WEST ALONG
THE COAST...BUT HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY.  ZONAL FLOW...WITH A SLIGHT RIDGING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  IT WILL ALSO KEEP A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE REGION.  THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  PALMER


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY)...BY EARLY
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO
RE-ESTABLISH WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WARMEST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING 90 TO
NEAR 100 IN THE VALLEY WHILE THE DELTA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE
AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST A TROUGH AFFECTING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER IN HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO CALIFORNIA SO HAVE NOT ADDED ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. JBB

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORCAL WILL BRING
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE VALLEY. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DELTA AND OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER SO NO LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE VALLEY TERMINALS. JBB/FG

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KHNX 192153
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT
THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...WILL NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS CLOUDS. CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODEL PROG THESE CLOUDS TO
PUSH EAST OF THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...MODEL ALSO PROG THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO RE-BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS...ALONG WITH THE
MARINE LAYER THAT IS NOW DISSIPATING...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
START A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE REACHED 11MB THIS AFTERNOON FROM SFO TO LAS...
WINDS OVER THE VALLEY HAVE BEEN BELOW 15 MPH. YET...A LAG RESPONSE
TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OVER
THE VALLEY TO LEVELS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS OVER
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAVE SEEN WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADIENTS RELAX ON
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
THIS EVENING. BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WEST
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN FALLING
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROF ATTEMPTS TO MOVE ONSHORE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
PROVIDE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KMTR 192146
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
246 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:30 PM PST TUESDAY...SATL IMAGERY INDC HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS WELL AS SOME STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE BAY. A TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS...AS WELL AS THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. THE FT ORD PROFILER INDC LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MARINE LAYER
WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT.

TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...
WITH THE NORTH BAY MUCH WARMER TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE
ONLY INTO THE 80S IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCATA-SFO IS BASICALLY FLAT WITH THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SFO-SAC AT 2.2 MB.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE TROF TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER...WITH THE MARINE LAYER RE-
ESTABLISHING ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.
WITH FLAT RIDGING TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH COASTAL TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND INLAND TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE GFS HINTS AT
AN OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD CLARIFY
THINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT TUESDAY...A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT
IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
LOW LEVEL MIXING BEHIND FRONT IS WEAK AND SO LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO
CLEAR. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GRADUALLY CLEAR LOW CLOUDS FROM MOST
AREAS BY 19-20Z. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WEAK
THROUGH TONIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KSFO BY 03Z...BUT THIS COULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL 06Z OR LATER IF LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MORE ROBUST THIS AFTERNOON
THAN EXPECTED. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 20 NM AND
                     SFO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS65 KREV 192137
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
237 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS...ASCD WITH MAIN TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE
CWA THIS AFTN...ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED IN THE SRN GULF OF AK AND IS DRIFTING ESE. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PAC BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE
CONTINUING ALOFT THROUGH THAT TIME. BUT...WITH THE LOW FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND THE JET AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW ALSO TO OUR
NORTH...NO SIG WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST.
SO A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED THIS CYCLE. WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRYING BEHIND THE
TROF THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. BUT CONTINUED CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ALOFT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN AREA OF MID TO UPR LVL MSTR ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA.
THIS MSTR DECREASES LATE WED INTO THURS. AS JET RETREATS NORTH
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT WITH ONLY TYPICAL AFTN GUSTS...BUT EVEN
THESE WILL BE LIMITED WED AS TEMPS IN WRN NV WILL NOT WARM AS MUCH
AS RECENT WEEKS THUS NOT ALLOWING ZEPHYR TO DEVELOP AS STRONGLY.
AFTER COOL OVER NIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...30S IN MANY SIERRA
VALLEYS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR AVERAGE BY WED. EVEN WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MODELS HINT AT RISING HEIGHTS FOR
THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER INCREASE BY FRI. THUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE
EACH OF THOSE DAYS...ALTHOUGH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE
QUITE COOL IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS.

WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLING ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON FRI. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IN THE FAR SRN ZONES FOR
LATE FRI AFTN/EVNG. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MID
LVL MSTR ALSO...BUT THIS COULD BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE MODELS
PRODUCING WEAK LIFT AND GENERATING THEIR OWN MSTR. STILL WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY LYING IN THE AREA WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT MSTR OR
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION. MLF

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF
THE GREAT BASIN THRU THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING VERY WARM TEMPS TO
THE REGION. MAX TEMPS FOR MOST VALLEYS WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE
90S BOTH SAT-SUN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN W-CNTRL NV POSSIBLY
REACHING 100 DEGREES. RECORD HIGH IN RENO FOR EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND IS 98 DEGREES...AND IF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED THESE RECORDS COULD BE
APPROACHED.

SLGT INSTBY IS INDICATED FOR MINERAL-MONO ZONES ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACROSS SRN AND ERN NV SAT AFTN-EVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY A
BIT TOO FAR SOUTH TO SUPPORT TSTMS FOR MINERAL OR MONO COUNTY. IF
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS NUDGE THE TRACK FARTHER NORTH...THEN A FEW SHORT
LIVED TSTM CELLS COULD DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. BY SUNDAY LESS INSTBY
IS EXPECTED SO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS VERY SLIM.

BY MON-TUES...RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS NEXT TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NWRN US. LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FAVORS A LESS AMPLIFIED TROF
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH...RESULTING IN ONLY MODEST COOLING AND
MODERATE SW-W WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING 25-30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUESDAY AS DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS PREVAILS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU WEDNESDAY. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
THRU 04Z THIS EVENING AND AFT 21Z WED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KEKA 192123
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
223 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN
AN EARLY FALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT...AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND STARTING FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST AT 2200 UTC. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS ERADICATED
THE MARINE LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WED...AND WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
TOASTY ONE ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF CLOUD COVER. HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE WARM FRONT INSIDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WAS
SPREADING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT REACHING THE COAST BY 12 UTC WED
AND DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THIS FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN. GFS WAS
FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE NAM12...AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
COMPOSITE OF THE TWO. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM12 IS SLOWER WITH RAIN
DEVELOPMENT...IT TOO HAS NEARLY HALF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS COASTAL
SECTIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU. BELIEVE THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. UP TO ONE TENTH IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST SOUTH TO EUREKA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN WESTERN TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES
BY 12Z THU. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS SECOND
WAVE OF RAIN...DURING AND AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
AND PERHAPS INTO WED NIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...WITH HIGH STATIC STATIC
STABILITY AND STRATIFORM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING. THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN ON THURSDAY...AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH GOOD WARMING AND DRYING COMMENCING ON
FRIDAY. DJB

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY GOOD GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DEPICTING MODEST RIDGING OVER NORTHERN
CAL AS AND UPPER LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS TRANSLATES
TO LIGHT BUT DRY NORTHERLY COLUMN WIND FLOW LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH WEAK OFFSHORE NIGHT-TIME WINDS BOTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. LONG
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN HANDLING
EXTENT OF TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEPARTING CYCLONE
WASHING INLAND OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE TAKE MIDDLE
ROAD SOLUTION PAINTING LOW-END POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS AS
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. -MC

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE THE LIKELY CULPRIT BEHIND THE BREAKUP OF THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE
SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT OVER AREA RIDGES. WITH A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING LATER THIS EVENING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IFR DZ AND RA WILL DEVELOP FROM DEL NORTE
COUNTY SOUTHWARDS REMAINING NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AFTER 08-09Z
(12-1AM PDT). VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TOWARDS
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST. FLOW WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG RIDGES AND AROUND KCEC.
ALM

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW TONIGHT AT 3
TO 5 FT WITH A 8 TO 9 SECOND WESTERLY SWELL. BUILDING NW SWELL CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS A LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
AROUND 12 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO
20 KT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE THE NORTH ON THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALM

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS65 KPSR 192117
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
217 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE ONLY
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WELL EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AND STAY ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BAJA CA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEG F WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT DRIER WEATHER TO MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE 40S OUT WEST AND
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER AZ DESERTS. GIVEN THE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND THE UNFAVORABLE STEERING FLOW...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA IS LESS
THAN 5% TODAY/TONIGHT...AND 0% OUT WEST. TOWARD THE EAST...WE`LL
HANG ONTO A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES (SEEN IN THE
300MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS) WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS ARIZONA...AND
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TO ROTATE
THROUGH AZ DURING THE DAY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH OUR FAR ERN
CWA...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT AT RINGING OUT WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE WE HAVE LEFT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR NE AND E.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...A DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER MUCH OF CWA.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...CONDITIONED DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WITH THE 500-400MB HIGH CENTERING SOMEWHERE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE
MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA...SO MAINTAINING A LOW GRADE
MONSOON FORECAST OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY...SPREADING THE SLIGHT CHANCES WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY AT ALL TAF SITES THOUGH A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF PHX AREA TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT THIS MORNING...THOUGH SLIGHTLY FAVOR A DIRECTION
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY. DRY/BENIGN WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY AIR HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /LESS THAN 20 PERCENT/ OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL SHOW LITTLE FLUCTUATION DAY-TO-DAY.
WINDS WILL FEATURE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THOUGH A BIT MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT. MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...WANEK/MEYERS
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ

000
FXUS66 KSGX 192058
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXTEND INTO THE
LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND COVERAGE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN
INLAND EMPIRE AND INLAND SAN DIEGO VALLEYS EACH MORNING. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TODAY REGARDING THE MARINE LAYER WAS THE DELAYED CLEARING AT
THE COAST. AS OF 1 PM...THERE WERE STILL A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST NORTH OF LA JOLLA. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHT COOLING WITH BACKING
WINDS BELOW 10K FT...AND TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON CERTAINLY REFLECT
THIS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO WAY DOWN IN THE
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND THE RH IN SOME AREAS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10 PERCENT. MODERATE RECOVERY OF RH IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT THOUGH AS
MIN TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD FOR AUGUST. ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE WITH ABOUT 7 MB SAN-TRM AND 5 MB SAN-DAG. THIS
WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CHINO HILLS AND MOST SAN DIEGO VALLEYS. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN THE HIGHER SAN DIEGO VALLEYS LIKE
RAMONA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER HIGH TO REFORM OVER AZ/NM BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND A POSSIBLY A RETURN OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOCAL WILL BE ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...SO WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN AT THE
MID-LEVELS...IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MTN/DESERT TSTORMS. WEST OF
THE MTNS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
192030Z...STRATUS WAS SLOWER TO BREAK UP AND NEVER COMPLETELY
CLEARED AS PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO TROUGH MOVING INLAND
TO THE NORTH. MARINE LAYER DEPTH CURRENTLY NEAR FL020. FOR REMAINDER
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OVER AND EAST OF MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
FL130... LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE WILL CONTINUE DUE TO WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 25 KT. OVER WATER AND ADJACENT
COAST...SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATUS LAYER INCREASING TO
BROKEN-OVERCAST BY 0300 UTC AND SPREADING INLAND 25 SM BY 0600 UTC
WITH BASES FL010-FL015 AND TOPS NEAR FL020. AFTER 1200 UTC
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LOWER INVERSION/STRATUS TOPS TO
AROUND FL015...MAKING STRATUS CLOUD LAYER THINNER AND BREAK UP OCCUR
ABOUT TWO HOURS EARLIER...MORE LIKE 1530-1600 UTC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

000
FXUS66 KLOX 192019
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PRETTY STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
WITH THE MARINE LYR SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
HOWEVER, THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
PREVENT CLOUDS FROM RETURING TO MOST AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A LITTLE WIND TO SRN SBA COUNTY AND
THE I-5 CORRIDOR BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODELS STILL INDICATING A BIT OF A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTHING DRAMATIC BUT
ENOUGH TO BRING DAYTIME HIGHS AT LEAST TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. NO SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SEEN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

19/1830Z

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER DEPT
SHOULD DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 1800 FT OVERNIGHT WITH A SIMILAR
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS S
OF POINT CONCEPTION BY 03-05Z...EXCEPT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KSBA.
COASTAL AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD SEE STRATUS MOVE ASHORE
BY 02-03Z WITH IFR CIGS AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT KPRB AND THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE
IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE WED.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF AS FAR AS STRATUS TIME ARRIVAL.
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF INCLUDING WINDS AND STRATUS ARRIVAL
TIMES BETWEEN 10-12Z

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS65 KREV 191924
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1224 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING AND THUS MIXING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE A DECREASE IN SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS. WHILE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DO NOT THINK THESE WINDS WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT CONTINUING LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE. THUS WILL CANCEL
THE ADVISORY. MLF

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 939 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008...

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD SHIELD OVER NW NV AND NE CA HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
RISE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS ARE
MAINLY ASCD WITH A SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST OF THE RGN BUT ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS MOVING ON SHORE NRN CA LATE MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE A THIN BAND OF
REFLECTIVITY WAS NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY. NOT SURE ANY OF THIS IS
REACHING THE GROUND BUT THE POSSIBILITY CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR AT LEAST A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTN. THUS WILL ADD AN AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AFTN ACROSS WRN NV AND THE
CENTRAL SIERRA. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO CUT HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT SO
HAVE LOWERED MOST HIGH FORECASTS 1 TO 2 DEGREES. NOT VERY CONFIDENT
THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AS MUCH AS FORECAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
HEATING AND MIXING AND WINDS AT RIDGES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AS
BEST THERMAL GRADIENT IS NOW PUSHING JUST TO THE EAST. MLF

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008...

SHORT TERM...
LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND REMOVED SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY IN NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA.

A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER LASSEN AND MODOC COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE PLUS SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM HAS SPREAD
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (WAVE
CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80). AS THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ALOFT BUT LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE ALL I EXPECT FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY THIS MORNING. I AM A LITTLE WORRIED
ABOUT LASSEN COUNTY NOT DEVELOPING ANY SHOWERS...HOWEVER MOISTURE
SEEMS TO BE REFORMING BEHIND A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD
SO SOME MEAGER SHOWERS ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE.

TODAY WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL (EAST) TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ELSEWHERE) AS THE TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL (MID 80S TO LOWER 90S) AS TROUGHINESS RETREATS NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM. I REMOVED SHOWERS NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM WITH ANY UPPER IMPULSES RETREATING WITH
THE HEIGHT RISES. SNYDER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON FRIDAY EXPANDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. LATEST ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHS AT RENO NO HIGHER
THAN 95 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...SO RECORD HIGHS (98 BOTH DAYS)
APPEAR UNLIKELY TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED.

EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS LOW AND LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF FORECAST
AS INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT PROVIDE A
MID LEVEL CAP.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TO THE PAC NW COAST.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL IS FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH
THAN EITHER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CHARTS...MOVING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO ID AND WRN MONTANA RATHER THAN NEAR THE NW COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE
RIDGE A LITTLE LONGER AND KEEPS TEMPS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. RC

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA UNTIL
18Z OVER EXTREME NE CA AND NW NV. SW-W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT BETWEEN
20Z-04Z TODAY. RC

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KLOX 191842
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM....LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE AFFECTING MOST CSTL AREAS THIS
MORNING. WITH MARINE LAYER DEPTH DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...AND
WITH N-S GRADS TRENDING OFFSHORE..CLOUDS WERE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE
ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES. THE OPPOSITE WAS TRUE FOR THE
VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AS NLY PUSH HAS FORCED CLDS INTO THE SALINAS
VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...CLOUDS COULD BE STUBBORN AT THE IMDT CST FROM ABOUT VENTURA
TO MALIBU. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN CSTL
AND VALLEY AREAS...AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W CST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL SET UP ACRS SWRN CA WED THRU THU.
EXPECT MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...WITH WDSPRD COVERAGE EXPECTED ON THE CSTL PLAIN...AND
CLOUDS SPREADING LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO
CHANGE LITTLE. N-S GRADS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND NEAR THE I-5
CORRIDOR EACH EVENING THROUGH THU...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON
FRI. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL STATES WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BEGIN TO SHIFT/EXPAND WWD SAT...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS SAT THRU MONDAY...TO AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE CSTL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

19/1830Z

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER DEPT
SHOULD DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 1800 FT OVERNIGHT WITH A SIMILAR
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS S
OF POINT CONCEPTION BY 03-05Z...EXCEPT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KSBA.
COASTAL AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD SEE STRATUS MOVE ASHORE
BY 02-03Z WITH IFR CIGS AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT KPRB AND THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE
IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE WED.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF AS FAR AS STRATUS TIME ARRIVAL.
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF INCLUDING WINDS AND STRATUS ARRIVAL
TIMES BETWEEN 10-12Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KMTR 191738
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1040 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...A BROAD SWATH OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WHILE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND
BAYS AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY
THIS EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO BEEN BROUGHT IN AND THIS HAS RESULTED
IN WEAKENING OF THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION...AS INDICATED IN BOTH THE
12Z OAK SOUNDING AND LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA. IN ITSELF THAT
WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO FASTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE
STRATUS...BUT IN THE PRESENT SITUATION THAT WILL BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY CONTINUING AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME REDUCTION
IN INSOLATION FROM THE HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY INLAND...AND GENERALLY SIMILAR
NEAR THE COAST.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE PROJECTED
TO PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS OVER OUR DISTRICT. A GENERAL WARMING
TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INLAND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED. WITH
FLOW ORIENTATION REMAINING ONSHORE HOWEVER...AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER
REL HUMIDITY OUTPUT INDICATIVE OF CONTINUING EXTENSIVE MARINE
STRATUS...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT TUESDAY...A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT
IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
LOW LEVEL MIXING BEHIND FRONT IS WEAK AND SO LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO
CLEAR. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GRADUALLY CLEAR LOW CLOUDS FROM MOST
AREAS BY 19-20Z. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WEAK
THROUGH TONIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KSFO BY 03Z...BUT THIS COULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL 06Z OR LATER IF LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MORE ROBUST THIS AFTERNOON
THAN EXPECTED. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
                         .THIS AFTN...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
                                            BLANCAS TO 20 NM AND
                                            SFO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KSTO 191659
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

UPDATED AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING AROUND
THIS TROUGH.  ONE OF THE WAVES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...BRINGING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.  MEANWHILE...THE MARINE LAYER DID HOLD
TOGETHER OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH THE OAKLAND SOUNDING AND THE FORT ORD
PROFILER SHOWING IT TO BE AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP.  AS A RESULT...LOW
CLOUDS DID MOVE INTO THE DELTA AND SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY ONCE
AGAIN.  TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE EITHER RUNNING SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THAT TREND
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT PERIODS
OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.  CURRENT FORECAST IS HANDLING THESE
TRENDS WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  PALMER

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORCAL WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE VALLEY. MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE
DELTA AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. JBB/FG

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KPSR 191656
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
ONLY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...WELL EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AND STAY ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SWRN AZ. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPS TODAY...AROUND 105 AT KPHX AND 108 AT KYUM. A
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT DRIER WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY. EVEN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE VALLEY...WE`LL HAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A SLIVER OF
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON (MODIFIED 12 UTC KPSR SOUNDING YIELDS ABOUT 300
J/KG WITH A MIXING RATIO FROM SFC TO 700MB OF 9 G/KG AND USING A
MEAN LAYER TEMP BASED ON A SFC HIGH OF 106). HOWEVER...BEFORE WE CAN
MAKE USE OF THE INSTABILITY (CAPE) AROUND THE LOWER DESERTS
TODAY...WE WOULD HAVE TO OVERCOME A NEG AREA OF ENERGY AROUND 700MB.
EVEN IF THIS IS POSSIBLE...ANY BUILDING CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL FIND
ITSELF SHUT DOWN AROUND 400MB WHERE THE KPSR 12 UTC SOUNDING FROM
THIS MORNING INDICATES WARMING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN OTHER
WORDS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA IS LESS THAN 5% TODAY. TOWARD THE EAST...WE`LL HANG
ONTO A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES (SEEN IN THE
300MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS) WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS ARIZONA...AND
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TO ROTATE
THROUGH AZ DURING THE DAY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH OUR FAR ERN
CWA...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT AT RINGING OUT WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE WE HAVE LEFT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR NE AND E.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...A DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER MUCH OF CWA.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...CONDITIONED DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WITH THE 500-400MB HIGH CENTERING SOMEWHERE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE
MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA...SO MAINTAINING A LOW GRADE
MONSOON FORECAST OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY...SPREADING THE SLIGHT CHANCES WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY AT ALL TAF SITES THOUGH A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF PHX AREA TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT THIS MORNING...THOUGH SLIGHTLY FAVOR A DIRECTION
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY. DRY/BENIGN WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY AIR HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /LESS THAN 20 PERCENT/ OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL SHOW LITTLE FLUCTUATION DAY-TO-DAY.
WINDS WILL FEATURE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THOUGH A BIT MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT. MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...WANEK/MEYERS
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ

000
FXUS65 KREV 191639
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
939 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD SHIELD OVER NW NV AND NE CA HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
RISE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS ARE
MAINLY ASCD WITH A SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST OF THE RGN BUT ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS MOVING ON SHORE NRN CA LATE MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE A THIN BAND OF
REFLECTIVITY WAS NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY. NOT SURE ANY OF THIS IS
REACHING THE GROUND BUT THE POSSIBILITY CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR AT LEAST A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTN. THUS WILL ADD AN AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AFTN ACROSS WRN NV AND THE
CENTRAL SIERRA. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO CUT HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT SO
HAVE LOWERED MOST HIGH FORECASTS 1 TO 2 DEGREES. NOT VERY CONFIDENT
THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AS MUCH AS FORECAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
HEATING AND MIXING AND WINDS AT RIDGES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AS
BEST THERMAL GRADIENT IS NOW PUSHING JUST TO THE EAST. MLF

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008...

SHORT TERM...
LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND REMOVED SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY IN NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA.

A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER LASSEN AND MODOC COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE PLUS SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM HAS SPREAD
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (WAVE
CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80). AS THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ALOFT BUT LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE ALL I EXPECT FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY THIS MORNING. I AM A LITTLE WORRIED
ABOUT LASSEN COUNTY NOT DEVELOPING ANY SHOWERS...HOWEVER MOISTURE
SEEMS TO BE REFORMING BEHIND A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD
SO SOME MEAGER SHOWERS ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE.

TODAY WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL (EAST) TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ELSEWHERE) AS THE TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL (MID 80S TO LOWER 90S) AS TROUGHINESS RETREATS NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM. I REMOVED SHOWERS NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM WITH ANY UPPER IMPULSES RETREATING WITH
THE HEIGHT RISES. SNYDER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON FRIDAY EXPANDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. LATEST ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHS AT RENO NO HIGHER
THAN 95 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...SO RECORD HIGHS (98 BOTH DAYS)
APPEAR UNLIKELY TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED.

EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS LOW AND LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF FORECAST
AS INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT PROVIDE A
MID LEVEL CAP.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TO THE PAC NW COAST.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL IS FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH
THAN EITHER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CHARTS...MOVING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO ID AND WRN MONTANA RATHER THAN NEAR THE NW COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE
RIDGE A LITTLE LONGER AND KEEPS TEMPS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. RC

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA UNTIL
18Z OVER EXTREME NE CA AND NW NV. SW-W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT BETWEEN
20Z-04Z TODAY. RC

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ072.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KMTR 191600
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
900 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...A BROAD SWATH OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WHILE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND
BAYS AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY
THIS EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO BEEN BROUGHT IN AND THIS HAS RESULTED
IN WEAKENING OF THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION...AS INDICATED IN BOTH THE
12Z OAK SOUNDING AND LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA. IN ITSELF THAT
WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO FASTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE
STRATUS...BUT IN THE PRESENT SITUATION THAT WILL BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY CONTINUING AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME REDUCTION
IN INSOLATION FROM THE HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY INLAND...AND GENERALLY SIMILAR
NEAR THE COAST.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE PROJECTED
TO PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS OVER OUR DISTRICT. A GENERAL WARMING
TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INLAND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED. WITH
FLOW ORIENTATION REMAINING ONSHORE HOWEVER...AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER
REL HUMIDITY OUTPUT INDICATIVE OF CONTINUING EXTENSIVE MARINE
STRATUS...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERING
BOTH BAYS AND IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSTS. VARIOUS MODELS
KEEP THE THE LOWER CIGS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH
SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE LOOP TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF KSFO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE. SO CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE THAT THE BURN-OFF WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. KSFO SHOULD
SEE CIGS BETWEEN 010 AND 020 THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z AND THEN START TO
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. EVEN IF KSFO DOES GET A FEW BRIEF BREAKS FROM
THE CLOUDS THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY IN THE APPROACHES TO IMPACT
FLIGHT. KOAK WILL ALSO CLEAR AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL AS KMRY.
KSTS IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT BUT BYPASSING IT AT THIS
TIME. STILL THINK THAT CIGS WILL RETURN TO THAT LOCATION FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING. KSJC SHOULD SEE BURN-OFF BEGINNING AT 18Z AND BE
COMPLETE BY 19Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
KSFO LOOKING AT 10 TO 16 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT BETWEEN 22
AND 02Z.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
                         .THIS AFTN...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
                                            BLANCAS TO 20 NM AND
                                            SFO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KSGX 191550
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXTEND INTO THE
LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND COVERAGE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CLOUDS EXTENDED INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN INLAND
EMPIRE AND INLAND SAN DIEGO VALLEYS BY SUNRISE...AND DENSE FOG WAS
AGAIN REPORTED IN RAMONA. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE WITH
ABOUT 6 MB SAN-TRM AND 4 MB SAN-DAG. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BETWEEN
9-10 AM. THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWED CONTINUED COOLING WITH BACKING
WINDS BELOW 10K FT...SO MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
MOST AREAS THAN YESTERDAY.

THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXTEND
INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CHINO HILLS AND MOST OF THE SAN DIEGO
VALLEYS. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND ALSO THE HIGHER SAN DIEGO VALLEYS SUCH
AS RAMONA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER HIGH TO REFORM OVER AZ/NM BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND A POSSIBLY A RETURN OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOCAL WILL BE ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...SO WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN AT THE
MID-LEVELS...IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MTN/DESERT TSTORMS. WEST OF
THE MTNS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
191440Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH SLOPING UPWARD FROM FL015 OVER LA BASIN
TO FL020 OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OVERCAST-BROKEN STRATUS LAYER OVER
WATERS AND TO ABOUT 25 SM INLAND WITH BASES FL010-FL016 AND TOPS
FL016-FL020. STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED-FEW BY 1630
UTC. OVER AND EAST OF MOUNTAINS AND BELOW FL130...LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 25 KT. STRATUS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO BROKEN-OVERCAST
AGAIN AFTER 0300 UTC AND SPREAD INLAND A SIMILAR EXTENT BY 0600 UTC.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

000
FXUS66 KSTO 191548
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
850 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING AROUND
THIS TROUGH.  ONE OF THE WAVES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...BRINGING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.  MEANWHILE...THE MARINE LAYER DID HOLD
TOGETHER OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH THE OAKLAND SOUNDING AND THE FORT ORD
PROFILER SHOWING IT TO BE AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP.  AS A RESULT...LOW
CLOUDS DID MOVE INTO THE DELTA AND SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY ONCE
AGAIN.  TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE EITHER RUNNING SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THAT TREND
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT PERIODS
OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.  CURRENT FORECAST IS HANDLING THESE
TRENDS WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  PALMER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPR TROF MOVG THRU NORCAL THIS MRNG. MOIST WLY FLOW ALF SPRDS
SCT-BKN CLDS INTO FCST AREA NXT 24 HRS WITH BASES MNLY AOA FL100.
LCL MVFR CONDS IN ST EXTDG FM DELTA INTO S SAC VLY TIL 17Z. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO 25 KTS OR GTR THRU DELTA AND OVR HYR MTN TRRN.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KHNX 191528
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
828 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH TODAY PROVIDING COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO...AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
BY THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AND THE COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREAKING THE CENTURY MARK IN THE
VALLEY AND DESERT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONSOON WILL STAY SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KMTR 191140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
440 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
COVERS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE MARINE LAYER MIXED OUT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF THE SUN IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD GET RE-ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN. THE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EVEN
SPREAD TO THE COAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PRAIRIES AND A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET COULD STAY
IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS CONTRIBUTING TO THE WARMING AT
THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ANY MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE DISTRICT. OUR CWA WILL RETURN
TO A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE
COAST AND AROUND THE SFO BAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERING
BOTH BAYS AND IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSTS. VARIOUS MODELS
KEEP THE THE LOWER CIGS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH
SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE LOOP TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF KSFO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE. SO CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE THAT THE BURN-OFF WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. KSFO SHOULD
SEE CIGS BETWEEN 010 AND 020 THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z AND THEN START TO
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. EVEN IF KSFO DOES GET A FEW BRIEF BREAKS FROM
THE CLOUDS THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY IN THE APPROACHES TO IMPACT
FLIGHT. KOAK WILL ALSO CLEAR AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL AS KMRY.
KSTS IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT BUT BYPASSING IT AT THIS
TIME. STILL THINK THAT CIGS WILL RETURN TO THAT LOCATION FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING. KSJC SHOULD SEE BURN-OFF BEGINNING AT 18Z AND BE
COMPLETE BY 19Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
KSFO LOOKING AT 10 TO 16 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT BETWEEN 22
AND 02Z.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
                         .THIS AFTN...SCA...SFO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KSTO 191134
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
430 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT
SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AS MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DELTA INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

INITIAL TROUGH OVERHEAD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A DEEPER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE BC
COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER WEDNESDAY...SO MAIN PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPR TROF MOVG THRU NORCAL THIS MRNG. MOIST WLY FLOW ALF SPRDS
SCT-BKN CLDS INTO FCST AREA NXT 24 HRS WITH BASES MNLY AOA FL100.
LCL MVFR CONDS IN ST EXTDG FM DELTA INTO S SAC VLY TIL 17Z. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO 25 KTS OR GTR THRU DELTA AND OVR HYR MTN TRRN.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KLOX 191127
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
354 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SHORT TERM....LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE AFFECTING MOST CSTL AREAS THIS
MORNING. WITH MARINE LAYER DEPTH DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...AND
WITH N-S GRADS TRENDING OFFSHORE..CLOUDS WERE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE
ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES. THE OPPOSITE WAS TRUE FOR THE
VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AS NLY PUSH HAS FORCED CLDS INTO THE SALINAS
VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...CLOUDS COULD BE STUBBORN AT THE IMDT CST FROM ABOUT VENTURA
TO MALIBU. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN CSTL
AND VALLEY AREAS...AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W CST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL SET UP ACRS SWRN CA WED THRU THU.
EXPECT MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...WITH WDSPRD COVERAGE EXPECTED ON THE CSTL PLAIN...AND
CLOUDS SPREADING LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO CHANGE
LITTLE. N-S GRADS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR
EACH EVENING THROUGH THU...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON
FRI. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL STATES WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BEGIN TO SHIFT/EXPAND WWD SAT...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS SAT THRU MONDAY...TO AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE CSTL PLAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...

191100Z

MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1200 FEET. MODERATE OFFSHORE TRENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL LIMIT VLY PENETRATION AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK MORNING BURN
OFF. THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BURN OFF COULD BE AN HOUR EARLIER
THAN FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...RORKE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS65 KPSR 191118
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
418 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION/FIRE WX SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
ONLY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AND STAY ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAKING A PEAK AT IR IMAGERY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALL BUT LEFT
THE AREA...ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NEW
MEXICO. THE STORM ACTIVITY HAD BEEN TRIGGERED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS SUPPORT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILDS BACK OVER ARIZONA.

THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRIER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER
MID-LEVEL TEMPS THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY (ZONE
24) WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFT/EVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
MOISTURE WANES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL A FEW DEGREES. SO MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 110 DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS WITH THE 500-400MB HIGH
CENTERING SOMEWHERE OVER THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO THE
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA...SO MAINTAINING A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY...SPREADING THE SLIGHT
CHANCES WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY AT ALL TAF SITES THOUGH A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF PHX AREA TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT THIS MORNING...THOUGH SLIGHTLY FAVOR A DIRECTION
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY. DRY/BENIGN WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY AIR HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /LESS THAN 20 PERCENT/ OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL SHOW LITTLE FLUCTUATION DAY-TO-DAY.
WINDS WILL FEATURE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THOUGH A BIT MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT. MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ

000
FXUS66 KEKA 191118 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
418 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PASSING DISTURBANCES OFF THE PACIFIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EARLY FALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER THE
INTERIOR AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND STARTING FRIDAY AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST
OVER THE WEST COAST AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...FORECAST TO SHIFT
INLAND TODAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE COASTAL STRATUS LAYER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST. HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE WARM FRONT NEAR 130 WEST
THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY 00 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE TODAY MAY BE
MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT UNDER
INCREASING S-SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE SMITH RIVER DRAINAGE OF DEL NORTE
COUNTY...WITH AROUND .10 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
.30 TO .40 INCHES WEDNESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH LATE EVENING. QPF IS
FORECAST BY THE CNRFC TO DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY SOUTH OF THE SMITH
DRAINAGE...WITH LESS THAN .10 OVER THE LOWER KLAMATH AND LITTLE OR
NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
CONCERN...WITH POSITIVE LI`S THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. CC

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TROUGH DEPARTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND OVER NW CAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY MORE LIKELY
A RECOVERY DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF
THE TROUGH...BUT PRIOR TO ONSET OF OFFSHORE WIND FLOW SETTING UP.
THUS SUSPECT THURSDAY WILL START OFF DAMP AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH MORE EARNEST
WARMING AND DRYING UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL
LEANING TOWARD HEIGHT FALLS MONDAY SUGGESTING THE WARMING AND DRYING
WILL BE BRIEF AND CONFINED TO FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SUNDAY SHOWING
ONSET OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. -MC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE SMITH RIVER DRAINAGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SMITH WILL RECEIVE LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE QUITE GOOD IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CA WITH OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION AND METAR OBSERVATIONS
SHOW LIFTING CEILINGS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS EVENING. TH

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN TODAY WITH A SHORT PERIOD 3 TO 4
FT W SWELL PREVAILING ACROSS THE WATERS. A SECONDARY 2 FT S
SWELL WITH 10 SECOND PERIOD WILL PERSIST TODAY AND BE REPLACED BY A
LONG PERIOD 2 FT SW SWELL ON WED. A NW SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND PEAK NEAR 12 FT WED EVENING.  THE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH WED...AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TH

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS66 KSGX 191111
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXTEND INTO THE
LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN NEAR 1200 TO 1400 FEET DEEP WITH AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE
LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES
BRINGING A SLOW WARMING TREND...BUT NOT MUCH RETURN OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
190930Z...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD INLAND...BUT IT WILL COVER THE COAST AND EXTEND TO THE
WESTERNMOST VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FEET
ASL WITH TOPS AROUND 1800 FEET. SOME 3-5SM VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL
DEVELOP INLAND FROM HAZE BETWEEN 12-16Z. AT THE INLAND EXTENT OF
CLOUDS BETWEEN 800-1000 FEET ELEV THERE COULD BE DENSE FOG AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 16Z. ABOVE
AND BEYOND THE MARINE LAYER SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED.
TONIGHT STRATUS THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER SHOULD COVER SAN AND CRQ BY
04-08Z AND SNA BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE...MM

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

000
FXUS65 KREV 191103
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
403 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND REMOVED SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY IN NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA.

A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER LASSEN AND MODOC COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE PLUS SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM HAS SPREAD
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (WAVE
CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80). AS THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ALOFT BUT LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE ALL I EXPECT FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY THIS MORNING. I AM A LITTLE WORRIED
ABOUT LASSEN COUNTY NOT DEVELOPING ANY SHOWERS...HOWEVER MOISTURE
SEEMS TO BE REFORMING BEHIND A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD
SO SOME MEAGER SHOWERS ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE.

TODAY WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL (EAST) TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ELSEWHERE) AS THE TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL (MID 80S TO LOWER 90S) AS TROUGHINESS RETREATS NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM. I REMOVED SHOWERS NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM WITH ANY UPPER IMPULSES RETREATING WITH
THE HEIGHT RISES. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON FRIDAY EXPANDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. LATEST ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHS AT RENO NO HIGHER
THAN 95 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...SO RECORD HIGHS (98 BOTH DAYS)
APPEAR UNLIKELY TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED.

EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS LOW AND LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF FORECAST
AS INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT PROVIDE A
MID LEVEL CAP.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TO THE PAC NW COAST.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL IS FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH
THAN EITHER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CHARTS...MOVING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO ID AND WRN MONTANA RATHER THAN NEAR THE NW COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE
RIDGE A LITTLE LONGER AND KEEPS TEMPS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. RC
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA UNTIL
18Z OVER EXTREME NE CA AND NW NV. SW-W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT BETWEEN
20Z-04Z TODAY. RC
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KMTR 191041
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
340 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
COVERS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE MARINE LAYER MIXED OUT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF THE SUN IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD GET RE-ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN. THE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EVEN
SPREAD TO THE COAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PRAIRIES AND A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET COULD STAY
IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS CONTRIBUTING TO THE WARMING AT
THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ANY MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE DISTRICT. OUR CWA WILL RETURN
TO A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE
COAST AND AROUND THE SFO BAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 PM PDT MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING
AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODING OVER LAND
LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW PATCHES REMAIN OVER KOAK...KMRY
AND KSNS. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY INHIBIT THE
FORMATION OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT AND MAY MIX IT OUT ALTOGETHER HOWEVER
MODELS ARE INDICATING CIGS REFORMING OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE
BROUGHT CIGS BACK IN LATER TONIGHT WITH BURN OFF BY NOON TUESDAY AT
ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
                         .THIS AFTN...SCA...SFO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: C WALBRUN

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS65 KPSR 190948
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
ONLY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AND STAY ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAKING A PEAK AT IR IMAGERY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALL BUT LEFT
THE AREA...ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NEW
MEXICO. THE STORM ACTIVITY HAD BEEN TRIGGERED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS SUPPORT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILDS BACK OVER ARIZONA.

THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRIER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER
MID-LEVEL TEMPS THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY (ZONE
24) WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFT/EVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
MOISTURE WANES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL A FEW DEGREES. SO MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 110 DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS WITH THE 500-400MB HIGH
CENTERING SOMEWHERE OVER THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO THE
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA...SO MAINTAINING A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY...SPREADING THE SLIGHT
CHANCES WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...INCLUDING KYUM...KIPL...KNYL... AND
KBLH AIRFIELDS THROUGH 03Z WED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 KNOTS.

SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KPHX AND KIWA AIRFIELDS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z WED.  HOWEVER...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z ARE
EXPECTED 70 TO 90 MILES EAST OF KPHX WITH TOPS TO 35 THSD FEET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND TO ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ SATURDAY-MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS (WITH SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY) CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS66 KHNX 190829
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
129 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG FOR MID AUGUST STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. WINDS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER A
DEFINITE WINDY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL OCCUR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, MANY LOCATIONS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
FOOTHILLS WILL NOT REACH 90 DEGREES AND THE COOLEST MARINE
ENHANCED SITES MAY NOT EVEN REACH 85. AS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM, FORECAST MODELS BRING THE TROUGH AXIS INTO
THE SIERRA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP A ROBUST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO, WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER. THE COOL SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REBUILDING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND THEN SHIFT IT
WESTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES BY SATURDAY OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY
DESERTS WITH THESE READINGS LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGN
OF THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KSTO 190445
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
935 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS NOTED SUN EVENING OF MARINE INTRUSION INTO THE SRN
SAC VLY AND CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL MTNS AND WRN SHASTA CO ON
MON VERIFIED...ALBEIT I WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE CONVECTION FOR THE WRONG
REASON. THOUGHT THE SHORT WAVE OFF THE COAST LAST NITE WOULD
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON MON...BUT IT WAS
ACTUALLY THE 2ND WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE N COAST THAT
INITIATED CONVECTION OVER THE YOLLA BOLLY LATE MON AFTN. THE LATER
TIMING OF THIS WAVE RESULTED IN CONVECTION AT A LATER TIME THAN WHAT
WE EXPECTED LAST EVENING. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL TONITE AND
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUE. THE LAST THUNDERSTORM CELL NEAR CASTLE
CRAG HAS MOVED INTO SISKIYOU CO...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY TUE. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND A DELTA
BREEZE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOL/COOLER MAX TEMPS ON TUE.

THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM VCNTY OF 44N/132W WHICH IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND THEN ACROSS NORCAL TUE
AFTN. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE LAST WAVE AHEAD OF THE GULF OF
AK UPPER LOW AS IT MOVE TOWARDS VCRISL WED NIGHT. WLY FLOW S OF THE
UPPER LOW IS MOIST TAPPING A 2 INCH PW PLUME AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOT OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 130W-150W. SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOUDY BY NORCAL STANDARDS FOR AUG...AND COOL
WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. THE CLOUDIER WX SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL
THU AFTN. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON PCPN FOR WED AS DYNAMICS LIMITED
DUE TO THE JET FAR TO N ACROSS THE PAC NW...AND SHALLOW MOISTURE...
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO TUE. BUT THE WLY FLOW MAY SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED...CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRI. THE 12Z
MON MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM THROUGH WED...AND WE NOTICED THAT THE
LATEST FWC GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LOWER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND CLOSER TO WHAT IS EXPECTED.    JHM

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ZONAL FLOW OVER
NORCAL ON FRIDAY AS DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S RANGE. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE TIMING IS UNSURE BASED ON
MODEL DIFFERENCES. GFS DIGS THE TROUGH INTO NORCAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER
TROUGH THAT SKIRTS NORCAL ON WEDNESDAY. JBB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHO...UPPER LOW WILL BE SPREADING MID
CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THROUGH TUE AFTN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES...
PRIMARILY IN THE MTNS. ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG DELTA BREEZE ALSO
EXPECTED TO SPREAD MARINE STRATUS LOCALLY INLAND INTO THE SRN SAC
VLY TUE MORNING. UPPER LOW ALSO WILL CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY SWLY WINDS
25-35 KTS OVER MTNS INTO TUE AFTN...WITH DECEASING WINDS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA BY TUE EVENING.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KHNX 190431
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
931 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO WIND UP IN THE GULF OF THE
ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OFF THE COAST INLAND ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK THE HEAT...WITH
THE CENTURY MARK BEING BROKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE VALLEY
AND THE DESERT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME POSSIBLE MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BINGHAM

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KSGX 190349
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING ONSHORE
FLOW WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CONDITIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE 24 HOURS AGO AS THE COASTAL
STRATUS IS APPEARING ON SCHEDULE THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
MTNS...BUT THE NEAREST TSTORMS WERE A LITTLE OVER 100 MILES S OF THE
BORDER OVER THE SIERRA DE SAN PEDRO MARTIR IN NORTHERN BAJA...AND
WITH DRY WEST FLOW SETTLING IN...THAT IS THE CLOSEST THAT TSTORMS
WILL BE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW AND N CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED...THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
EFFECTS WILL BE PRETTY MINOR HERE AS 500 MB HEIGHTS STAY AROUND OR
ABOVE 588. THUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPS AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF COASTAL MARINE LAYER STRATUS
THROUGH ABOUT THU. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A MODERATE-STRENGTH UPPER
HIGH TO FORM OVER AZ/NM. WE WILL BE ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF SE FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WHILE SOME MOISTURE COULD
MOVE IN AT THE MID-LEVELS...MOST LIKELY IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR
MTN/DESERT TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SOURCE REGION OF THE E/SE
FLOW BEING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS/ROCKIES VERSUS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND TO LEVELS JUST A HAIR
ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
190320Z...MARINE LAYER STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
AT 03Z. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE AND PENETRATION INLAND WITH BASES
BETWEEN 1K AND 1.5K FT MSL AND TOPS BELOW FL020. SOME 3-5SM VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST DUE TO HAZE AND FOG
AFTER 08Z. FAR INLAND AND ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MARINE
LAYER LIKE KRNM MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS BTWN 10Z AND 15Z TUE MORNING. STRATUS DECK SHOULD MIX OUT
BY 16Z TUE. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER AND FAR INLAND SKIES WILL BE CLR
AND VIS UNRESTRICTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION...JAD

000
FXUS65 KPSR 190323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON AUG 18 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL COVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE ONLY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF
PHOENIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AND STAY ABOVE NORMAL
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT 03Z OVER EASTERN
MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES...GENERATED FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS OFF
THE HIGHER IN CENTRAL AZ. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX...INCLUDING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PHOENIX VALLEY. AT 03Z CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WERE STILL
MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PHOENIX VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...THE COLORADO CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE AZ CONVECTION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT. ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MONDAYS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST INTO NEW MEXICO.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...LOWER HUMIDITIES... AND WARMER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACT TO END THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY ZONE 24 WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT DRIER FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOK OK. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...INCLUDING KYUM...KIPL...KNYL... AND
KBLH AIRFIELDS THROUGH 03Z WED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 KNOTS.

SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KPHX AND KIWA AIRFIELDS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z WED.  HOWEVER...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z ARE
EXPECTED 70 TO 90 MILES EAST OF KPHX WITH TOPS TO 35 THSD FEET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND TO ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ SATURDAY-MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS (WITH SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY) CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/SIPPLE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS66 KLOX 190253
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
753 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008

.UPDATE...MARINE LAYER STILL PUSHING INLAND THIS EVENING. THE LAST
COUPLE VISIBLE IMAGERY FRAMES INDICATE THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE
ERODING OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS TO
AGREE WELL WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS AT THIS HOUR WITH KSBA-KSMX
TRENDING ABOUT -0.9 MB. AN UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED LATER TO REMOVE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...BUT FOR
THE CURRENT TIME WITH MARINE LAYER STILL IN PLACE...THE PACKAGE
WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED FROM AN EARLIER UPDATE FOR LOCAL CANYON
WINDS. OTHERWISE...MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.

TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS IT
WAITS FOR ADDITIONAL REENFORCEMENT UPSTREAM. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OUT NEAR 140W SHOULD PROVIDE THE REENFORCEMENT TO PUSH THE AXIS
THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COULD
BRING SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. IN LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTER THAN TONIGHT...AND 975
AND 950 MB WINDS ARE ALL STRONGER WITH NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30
KNOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND ISSUES...THE MARINE LAYER COULD
ERODE SOME AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITHTHE WEAK FRONT. SOME SCOURING CAN BE SEEN ON FOG PRODUCT AND
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT NO
CLEAR ANSWER STILL EXISTS WITH MODELS ONLY HINTING AT SCOURING
WITH AMPLE 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST..AND
DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVEL MIXING RATIO PATTERNS.

WITH TROUGH AXIS EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING
WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. A WARMING TREND
SHOULD OCCUR FOR LATE WEEK...AND THE MARINE LAYER REGIME
CONTINUING FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. BETTER WARMING COULD OCCUR OVER
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...VERY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED WITH JUST MINOR
DAY TO DAY CHANGES. A TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BY
WED WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
DECREASE IN THE MARINE LYR DEPTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME WARMING. OTHERWISE, DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
MONSOONAL FLOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA. 12Z MODELS BACKED OFF FROM THE
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND SRN SBA COUNTY FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN FILL
IN ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TEMPS SHOULD BE GETTING BACK TO NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT IT`S MARGINAL AT BEST AND NOT SEEING
ANY SORT OF EASTERLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO WILL KEEP POPS AT
ZERO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0020Z
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AT THE
COASTAL AREAS AND SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ...SALINAS
RIVER...AND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AFTER 08Z.
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT
BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z...WITH A LATER ARRIVAL MORE LIKELY AT KSBP
AROUND 08Z. TIMING OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FOR MOST AREAS.

KLAX...SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. IT IS LIKELY CEILINGS COULD ARRIVE ABOVE 1000 FEET
INITIALLY THIS EVENING...BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY WITHIN NEXT HOUR AFTER ARRIVAL. THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A BREAK IN THE CEILINGS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN
04Z AND 08Z TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AS EDDY REDEVELOPS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON TUESDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO KBUR BETWEEN 09Z AND
11Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AROUND 12Z...AND THEN SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/WOFFORD
AVIATION...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KMTR 190245
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
745 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 7:45 PM PDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO ERODE THE STRATUS FIELD FOR THE
MOST PART THIS EVENING. HOWEVER IN A RATHER RARE OCCURRENCE STRATUS
COVERAGE WAS PERSISTENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NORTH BAY ALL DAY
BUT IN RECENT HOURS IT HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER
TODAY OVER THE AREA. THE NAM MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY FORECAST
SUGGESTS STRATUS REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

A SERIES OF WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME A FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL UNTIL ABOUT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW AN EXPANDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE HIGH COVERING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY TURN THE
FLOW PATTERN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE WEEKEND. TOUGH TO SAY
HOW MUCH MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY MAY BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA IF THIS HAPPENS. FOR NOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN A FAIRLY
STABLE RANGE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH DOES MATERIALIZE THEN A WARMING/DRYING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 PM PDT MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING
AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODING OVER LAND
LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW PATCHES REMAIN OVER KOAK...KMRY
AND KSNS. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY INHIBIT THE
FORMATION OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT AND MAY MIX IT OUT ALTOGETHER HOWEVER
MODELS ARE INDICATING CIGS REFORMING OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE
BROUGHT CIGS BACK IN LATER TONIGHT WITH BURN OFF BY NOON TUESDAY AT
ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
                         .TNGT...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: C WALBRUN

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS65 KREV 190155
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
655 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008

.UPDATE...
WINDS DECREASING BUT 25-30 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. HAVE
LOWERED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS BUOYS AND NEAR SHORE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA FOR LAKE TAHOE. WAVES OF
2-3 FEET ON TAHOE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR...THEN DECREASE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. BRONG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...
HUMIDITY ON THE RISE IN MONO COUNTY...WITH GUSTS BELOW 30 MPH.
SHOULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN CANYONS AS THE APPROACHING LOW
KEEP CONDITIONS MIXED EXCEPT IN THE DEEP VALLEYS. FOR MINERAL
COUNTY HUMIDITY IS NEAR 15 PERCENT BUT GUSTS ARE BELOW 30 MPH.

THUS WILL LET THE RED FLAGS EXPIRE SINCE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. BRONG

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A CIRCULATION ASCD WITH
SHORT WAVE TROF AT APPROX 130W 40N PUSHING EAST TOWARD THE NRN CA
COAST WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST. THESE
FEATURES WERE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL BY MODELS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH THE JET STREAK ASCD WITH THE VORT LOBE AT 130W 40N MAY
HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED JUST A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH. THESE FEATURES
WILL BECOME THE MAIN FACTORS IN FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THEY PROGRESS EAST.

BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE RGN IS ALLOWING
THE APPROACH OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND LEADING SHORT WAVES. FIRST
SHORT WAVE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. WHILE SOME LOW TO MID
LVL MSTR REMAINS DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MSTR THIS
EVENING FOR ANY SIG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH NOSE OF NEXT
JET STREAK PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. SO WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT TONIGHT AS WELL THEN A
LITTLE MORE TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS ASCD WITH MAIN TROF AS IT SWINGS INTO THE PAC NW ON
TUES. SRN EXTENT OF THE TROF...AND THE COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA TOMORROW. NRN AREAS SHOULD SEE THE MOST
COOLING WHILE FAR SRN AREAS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES. WHILE ONCE
AGAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE TROF AND
FRONT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LVL MSTR.
DYNAMICS APPEAR BETTER WITH THIS TROF AND FRONT THAN THE ONE THIS
EVENING AND THE INCREASE IN DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUES. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WINDS COULD BE A FACTOR ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS.

LAST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING THE BEST
DYNAMICS WITH THIS TROF TO THE NORTH...LEAVING LITTLE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. STILL...SOME MID LVL MSTR WILL PERSIST EARLY WED
AND THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NRN CWA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THESE SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY WITH
HEIGHTS SLOWLY STARTING TO INCREASE. THUS TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING OVER THE ENTIRE RGN. MLF

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY
AND EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN THRU THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AGAIN. MAX TEMPS FOR MOST
VALLEYS WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 90S BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN W-CNTRL NV POSSIBLY
REACHING 100 DEGREES. RECORD HIGH IN RENO FOR EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND
IS 98 DEGREES...AND IF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY PROJECTED THESE RECORDS COULD BE APPROACHED. A FEW OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRY TO BRING A TROF INTO THE WRN US BY MONDAY
BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOURCES ARE FAVORING A MORE
PERSISTENT RIDGE...AND EVEN THE TROF SCENARIOS ARE LESS AMPLIFIED IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS RUNS.

WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO CUMULUS FORMATION EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES. SLIGHT INSTBY IS INDICATED FOR MOST DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL CAPPING APPEARS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE OR
VORTICITY CENTER COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP...BUT
THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE CAPTURED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIODS. MJD

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
REDUCTION IN VSBY FROM NRN MONO COUNTY TO SRN LYON COUNTY DUE TO
SMOKE FROM SILVER KING FIRE. SW-W WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT THRU 04Z THIS
EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AFT 20Z
TUESDAY. MJD

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. HUMIDITIES IN VALLEYS NORTH OF
RENO ARE STAYING ABOVE 15% WITH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE 20%
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CRITICAL AREA CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT SOUTH OF MINDEN AND THE VALLEYS OF MINERAL COUNTY WHERE
HUMIDITY IS JUST BELOW 15% AND WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. AS
MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION...THIS IS A MARGINALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER EVENT WITH A WARNING NECESSARY SINCE THERE ARE ACTIVE
FIRES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT IN MONO COUNTY.

THE SILVER CREEK FIRE SOUTH OF WALKER CA IS PUTTING UP A SMOKE PLUME
THAT IS SHOWING UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EVEN SHOWING UP ON
RADAR. THE PLUME IS MOVING TOWARD YERINGTON AND WILL BE VISIBLE FROM
MOST WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS THIS EVENING INCLUDING RENO. STRONG MIXING
WINDS AND POOR DECOUPLING AT NIGHT WILL PREVENT THIS SMOKE FROM
BUILDING UP TOO MUCH IN VALLEYS...SO LEFT SMOKE OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. JORDAN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KEKA 190021 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
458 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PASSING DISTURBANCES OFF THE PACIFIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EARLY FALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND PATHCY FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM
2030 UTC SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER PUSHED WELL INLAND TODAY...NEARLY
REACHING THE TRINITY COUNTY LINE AND ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHWESTERN MENDOCINO AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. A SLIGHT RECESSION
OF THE CLOUD LINE HAS OCCURRED SINCE THEN BUT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND ONCE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS
EVENING. IN TRINITY COUNTY...HEALTHY BUILDUPS OF CUMULUS TOWERS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SEEN IN THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE DEEP MARINE PUSH. DON`T
EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PAST 00 UTC BUT HAVE KEPT A
MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
IN EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK...WITH
THE GFS KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW AND JET ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO DEL NORTE AND
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES.  INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH POSITIVE LI`S
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA SO EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. -RM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TROUGH DEPARTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND OVER NW CAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY MORE LIKELY
A RECOVERY DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF
THE TROUGH...BUT PRIOR TO ONSET OF OFFSHORE WIND FLOW SETTING UP.
THUS SUSPECT THURSDAY WILL START OFF DAMP AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH MORE EARNEST
WARMING AND DRYING UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL
LEANING TOWARD HEIGHT FALLS MONDAY SUGGESTING THE WARMING AND DRYING
WILL BE BRIEF AND CONFINED TO FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SUNDAY SHOWING
ONSET OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. -MC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS BUILDUPS WERE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN SIX RIVERS AND SHASTA-TRINITY NF THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVE