000
FXUS61 KOKX 211900
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
300 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SLIDES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE TONIGHT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AWAY FROM THE CITY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE OUTLYING SUBURBS AND THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LONG
ISLAND. MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE CITY...WITH 50S TO LOW
60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...AND FLATTENS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERHAPS A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING UP ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
OVER-THE-RIDGE CIRRUS. SO WITH STILL PLENTY OF SUN AND MIXING UP TO
AROUND 900-875 MB...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORMALLY WARMEST SPOTS AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. FWC MOS
NUMBERS WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE USED IN THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE SOME CIRRUS AND MORE IN THE WAY
DIURNAL CU VS FRIDAY. WITH MIXING UP TO 875-850 MB...THINK THAT
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS KEEP
CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN SPITE OF MORE CLOUD COVER...A SW FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPS AWAY FROM THE WATERS CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A FAIRLY SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CLEARING THE ENTIRE CWA SOMETIME DURING THE EVENING.
WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT (MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT) AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DEPARTS MONDAY EVENING ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES START
NEAR NORMAL WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH THEN TEMPERATURES WARM UP
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SEA BREEZES HAVE MADE IT THROUGH KJFK/KEWR/KISP/KHPN/KBDR/KGON
AS OF 17Z AND ARE TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH KLGA AND KTEB AROUND 1830Z
AND 1930Z RESPECTIVELY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT AT NYC AIRPORTS...LESS THAN 10 KT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH LAND BREEZES POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT FOR TAFS. SEABREEZE/SYNOPTIC FLOW HYBRID EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z AGAIN ON FRI WITH SPEEDS SIMILAR TO
THOSE TODAY.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF CAPE COD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE
TOWARD THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD
UP TO 4 FT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME ON MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THEREAFTER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AL
MARINE...JC/
HYDROLOGY...JC

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211857
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
255 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
BEFORE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
PLEASANT WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOCAL SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AND WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE  OVER NEW YORK SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE CONSENSUS GIVEN THE QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST
IS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON.

12Z GFS REMAINS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT EVEN IT KEEPS
BEST LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE W OF NEW ENGLAND UNTIL SUN NIGHT. THIS
MEANS WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEEKEND...THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE
MORE NOTICEABLE SUN AS SW FLOW NUDGES DEWPOINTS INTO MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW MAY LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS SUN NIGHT AND
MON MORNING.

WE TEMPERED QUICKER GFS SOLUTION WITH EARLIER RUNS OF SREF/GEFS WHICH
SUGGEST FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY CAUSE CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP MON
AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED. KEPT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON...THOUGH WE WILL
SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON AS FRONT
REACHES S COAST.

BEYOND MON...ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER
WEATHER EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER REGION. WE ARE STILL NOT
VERY CONFIDENT WITH IDEA OF HAVING SOME SORT OF TROPICAL LOW WELL
OFF SE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY MID OR LATE WEEK...AS
THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GEFS. APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
EVENT AT THIS TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES WILL KICK
IN AT LOGAN AIRPORT AROUND 15Z TODAY AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING.  SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...VFR.
MON...SCT TSTMS WITH MVFR.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SAT AND SUN. GENERALLY LIGHT S/SW WINDS AND
FLAT SEAS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL INCREASE SW WINDS A
BIT WHICH IN TURN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS...ESPECIALLY ON OUTER
WATERS. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25KT WITH SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT OFFSHORE. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WAVEWATCH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER WATERS TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/JWD
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...BELK/JWD
MARINE...BELK/JWD

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211855
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
255 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
BEFORE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLEASANT WEATHER ON TAP THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCAL SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA.  HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OF THE EAST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE CONSENSUS GIVEN THE QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST
IS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON.

12Z GFS REMAINS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT EVEN IT KEEPS
BEST LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE W OF NEW ENGLAND UNTIL SUN NIGHT. THIS
MEANS WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEEKEND...THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE
MORE NOTICEABLE SUN AS SW FLOW NUDGES DEWPOINTS INTO MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW MAY LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS SUN NIGHT AND
MON MORNING.

WE TEMPERED QUICKER GFS SOLUTION WITH EARLIER RUNS OF SREF/GEFS WHICH
SUGGEST FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY CAUSE CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP MON
AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED. KEPT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON...THOUGH WE WILL
SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON AS FRONT
REACHES S COAST.

BEYOND MON...ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER
WEATHER EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER REGION. WE ARE STILL NOT
VERY CONFIDENT WITH IDEA OF HAVING SOME SORT OF TROPICAL LOW WELL
OFF SE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY MID OR LATE WEEK...AS
THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GEFS. APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
EVENT AT THIS TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES WILL KICK
IN AT LOGAN AIRPORT AROUND 15Z TODAY AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING.  SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...VFR.
MON...SCT TSTMS WITH MVFR.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SAT AND SUN. GENERALLY LIGHT S/SW WINDS AND
FLAT SEAS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL INCREASE SW WINDS A
BIT WHICH IN TURN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS...ESPECIALLY ON OUTER
WATERS. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25KT WITH SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT OFFSHORE. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WAVEWATCH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER WATERS TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/JWD
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...BELK/JWD
MARINE...BELK/JWD

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
206 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES NECESSARY. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...AND WITH AN
INVERSION....WE`LL BE MIXING UP TO AROUND 900-875 MB THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO AROUND
15C. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S IN
THE NORMALLY WARMEST SPOTS. A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC FLOW / SEA
BREEZE HYBRID WILL KEEP SOUTH-FACING COASTS A BIT COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MODIFICATION
OF THE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. SKIES GENERALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH SOME CIRRUS RETURNING FRI
NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN GRIDS JUST YET.

ON SUNDAY...H5 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
PRECIP LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST BY DAY`S END SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF FROPA...BUT IS STILL FASTER
THAN THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL BE A SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...OCCURRING SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...HAVE CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL BE LATE AT NIGHT. CHC POPS
AGAIN ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHC FOR MONDAY EVENING...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CHC.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SEABREEZES HAVE MADE IT THROUGH KJFK/KEWR/KISP/KHPN/KBDR/KGON
AS OF 17Z AND ARE TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH KLGA AND KTEB AROUND 1830Z
AND 1930Z RESPECTIVELY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT AT NYC AIRPORTS...LESS THAN 10 KT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH LAND BREEZES POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT FOR TAFS. SEABREEZE/SYNOPTIC FLOW HYBRID EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z AGAIN ON FRI WITH SPEEDS SIMILAR TO
THOSE TODAY.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF CAPE COD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE
TOWARD THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IS
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 211759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA LATE ON SUNDAY. DRIER...COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG AND MORNING WORDING. NO SIG CHANGES.
TODAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...MAINLY NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY W OF BODIES OF WATER...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
ON WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 80 WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S WITHIN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE 850 T`S
WARMING TO +14C BY LATE IN THE DAY...STRONG INVERSION AROUND 875 MB
SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING POTENTIAL ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HENCE THE
EXPECTATION FOR MAXES TO ONLY REACH AROUND OR JUST OVER 80.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE
AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT
MORNING/S. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S WITHIN THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS A
LIGHT SE/E COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...FOG FORMATION MAY BE A
BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN RECENT MORNING/S...ESP WITHIN AND JUST W
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONGEST 500HPA RIDGE OVER REGION SINCE JUNE...594DM WITH CENTER FM
MAINE TO VIRGINIA...SLOWLY PIVOTS FROM A N-S ORIENTATION TO NE-SW ON
SATURDAY WITH CENTER W VA TO CAPE COD...SLIDING SOUTH SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING 500HPA TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT.

AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER REGION OR THE MID ATLC
STATES EITHER AS A HIGH CENTER OR THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA
HIGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIDAY THE REGION IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HT TO 825HPA FRI AND
NEAR 800HPA SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN. RESULT WILL BE PRIME DRY MID
SUMMER WEATHER.

SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY UNRAVEL. GFS PUSHES 500HPA TROF
ACROSS THE GRTLKS WITH THE GEM BEING A BIT SLOWER WITH IT. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN IS STILL ONE OF THE FASTER MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AGAIN. AT SFC A CDFNT REACHES ST. LAWRENCE VLY BY ERLY AFTN
AND A BTV-SYR-CMH BY EVENING. AT SFC GEM/GFS HAVE SIMILAR
PLACEMENT OF CDFNT...BUT AGAIN THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE
ENSEMBLES FASTER MEMBERS.

GFS RH FIELDS SUGGEST SCT CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF CDFNT AS AT 00UTC
BEST LIS ARE OVER MOST OF FCA. FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS HAS
BEEN RUSHING THIS FRONT...HOWEVER AT 12UTC SUNDAY NAM/GFS/GEM
POSITIONS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. SO SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ANOTHER RATHER WARM HUMID
SUMMER PARTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT
DUE TO MORE HAZE AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS AND
THEIR DEBRIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SUMMER HAS FEATURED REPEATING WEATHER PATTERNS...FIRST IT WAS
MID JULY TO MID AUGUST`S PLAGUE OF THE CUTOFFS. THE CURRENT
ITERATION IS THE REPEATING  500 HPA RIDGE CYCLE...AS MONDAY`S
PATTERN LOOKS ALOT LIKE THIS PAST MONDAY WITH A DEPARTING 500HPA
TROF AND SFC CDFNT...AND ANOTHER 500HPA RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EAST FROM GRTLKS. THE
RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TEMPS START NR
OR BLO NORMAL MONDAY...AND AGAIN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE SFC
RIDGE IS DEFINITELY WARMER...BUT MUCH MORE HUMID WITH HIGHER
RH...AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FAY IS DRAWN NORTH...AT THIS
TIME TO THE WEST OF REGION INTO TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER MAINLY FAIR AND DRY PERIOD AFTER ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TONIGHT EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP IN MOST VALLEYS WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IFR AT KGFL. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE TAF LOCATIONS BY 13Z ALTHOUGH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS WILL SEE
FOG UNTIL 14-15Z. FRIDAY VFR MOST LOCATIONS BUT A BROKEN MARITIME SC
LAYER MAY DEVELOP FROM KPOU SOUTH...WITH CIGS 030-040FT MSL.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS SE AT 5 TO
10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI/SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG THU AND FRI NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...VFR NO WX.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FULL RECOVERY INTO THE
90-100 PERCENT RANGE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
WETTING FROM DEW IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.

HAINES INDICES WILL REACH 4 TO 5 THIS AFTERNOON AND FRI AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FRI...AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF ANY RESERVOIR RELEASES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...KL/SND
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211444
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1044 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES NECESSARY. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...AND WITH AN
INVERSION....WE`LL BE MIXING UP TO AROUND 900-875 MB THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO AROUND
15C. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S IN
THE NORMALLY WARMEST SPOTS. A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC FLOW / SEA
BREEZE HYBRID WILL KEEP SOUTH-FACING COASTS A BIT COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MODIFICATION
OF THE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. SKIES GENERALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH SOME CIRRUS RETURNING FRI
NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN GRIDS JUST YET.

ON SUNDAY...H5 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
PRECIP LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST BY DAY`S END SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF FROPA...BUT IS STILL FASTER
THAN THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL BE A SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...OCCURRING SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...HAVE CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL BE LATE AT NIGHT. CHC POPS
AGAIN ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHC FOR MONDAY EVENING...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CHC.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NE BY DAYBREAK...THEN VEER AROUND
TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDR/KGON/KISP SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL SW SEA
BREEZE DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IS
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 211412
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA LATE ON SUNDAY. DRIER...COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG AND MORNING WORDING. NO SIG CHANGES.
TODAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...MAINLY NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY W OF BODIES OF WATER...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
ON WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 80 WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S WITHIN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE 850 T`S
WARMING TO +14C BY LATE IN THE DAY...STRONG INVERSION AROUND 875 MB
SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING POTENTIAL ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HENCE THE
EXPECTATION FOR MAXES TO ONLY REACH AROUND OR JUST OVER 80.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE
AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT
MORNING/S. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S WITHIN THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS A
LIGHT SE/E COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...FOG FORMATION MAY BE A
BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN RECENT MORNING/S...ESP WITHIN AND JUST W
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONGEST 500HPA RIDGE OVER REGION SINCE JUNE...594DM WITH CENTER FM
MAINE TO VIRGINIA...SLOWLY PIVOTS FROM A N-S ORIENTATION TO NE-SW ON
SATURDAY WITH CENTER W VA TO CAPE COD...SLIDING SOUTH SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING 500HPA TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT.

AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER REGION OR THE MID ATLC
STATES EITHER AS A HIGH CENTER OR THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA
HIGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIDAY THE REGION IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HT TO 825HPA FRI AND
NEAR 800HPA SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN. RESULT WILL BE PRIME DRY MID
SUMMER WEATHER.

SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY UNRAVEL. GFS PUSHES 500HPA TROF
ACROSS THE GRTLKS WITH THE GEM BEING A BIT SLOWER WITH IT. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN IS STILL ONE OF THE FASTER MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AGAIN. AT SFC A CDFNT REACHES ST. LAWRENCE VLY BY ERLY AFTN
AND A BTV-SYR-CMH BY EVENING. AT SFC GEM/GFS HAVE SIMILAR
PLACEMENT OF CDFNT...BUT AGAIN THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE
ENSEMBLES FASTER MEMBERS.

GFS RH FIELDS SUGGEST SCT CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF CDFNT AS AT 00UTC
BEST LIS ARE OVER MOST OF FCA. FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS HAS
BEEN RUSHING THIS FRONT...HOWEVER AT 12UTC SUNDAY NAM/GFS/GEM
POSITIONS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. SO SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ANOTHER RATHER WARM HUMID
SUMMER PARTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT
DUE TO MORE HAZE AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS AND
THEIR DEBRIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SUMMER HAS FEATURED REPEATING WEATHER PATTERNS...FIRST IT WAS
MID JULY TO MID AUGUST`S PLAGUE OF THE CUTOFFS. THE CURRENT
ITERATION IS THE REPEATING  500 HPA RIDGE CYCLE...AS MONDAY`S
PATTERN LOOKS ALOT LIKE THIS PAST MONDAY WITH A DEPARTING 500HPA
TROF AND SFC CDFNT...AND ANOTHER 500HPA RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EAST FROM GRTLKS. THE
RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TEMPS START NR
OR BLO NORMAL MONDAY...AND AGAIN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE SFC
RIDGE IS DEFINITELY WARMER...BUT MUCH MORE HUMID WITH HIGHER
RH...AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FAY IS DRAWN NORTH...AT THIS
TIME TO THE WEST OF REGION INTO TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER MAINLY FAIR AND DRY PERIOD AFTER ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THER THAN SOME LINGERING PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN FOR TONIGHT...A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT FOG
FORMATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z/FRI...INCLUDING AT KALB...AS A LIGHT
SE/E WIND POTENTIALLY ADVECTS FOG FROM THE HUDSON RIVER.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING...TRENDING INTO THE SE
THIS AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU PM THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FULL RECOVERY INTO THE
90-100 PERCENT RANGE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
WETTING FROM DEW IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.

HAINES INDICES WILL REACH 4 TO 5 THIS AFTERNOON AND FRI AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FRI...AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF ANY RESERVOIR RELEASES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...KL/SND
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/SND
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 211144
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
744 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE. IT WILL
BRING QUITE WARM AND HUMID BUT DRY WEATHER. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...MAINLY NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY W OF BODIES OF WATER...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
ON WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 80 WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S WITHIN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE 850 T`S
WARMING TO +14C BY LATE IN THE DAY...STRONG INVERSION AROUND 875 MB
SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING POTENTIAL ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HENCE THE
EXPECTATION FOR MAXES TO ONLY REACH AROUND OR JUST OVER 80.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE
AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT
MORNING/S. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S WITHIN THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS A
LIGHT SE/E COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...FOG FORMATION MAY BE A
BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN RECENT MORNING/S...ESP WITHIN AND JUST W
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONGEST 500HPA RIDGE OVER REGION SINCE JUNE...594DM WITH CENTER FM
MAINE TO VIRGINIA...SLOWLY PIVOTS FROM A N-S ORIENTATION TO NE-SW ON
SATURDAY WITH CENTER W VA TO CAPE COD...SLIDING SOUTH SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING 500HPA TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT.

AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER REGION OR THE MID ATLC
STATES EITHER AS A HIGH CENTER OR THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA
HIGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIDAY THE REGION IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HT TO 825HPA FRI AND
NEAR 800HPA SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN. RESULT WILL BE PRIME DRY MID
SUMMER WEATHER.

SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY UNRAVEL. GFS PUSHES 500HPA TROF
ACROSS THE GRTLKS WITH THE GEM BEING A BIT SLOWER WITH IT. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN IS STILL ONE OF THE FASTER MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AGAIN. AT SFC A CDFNT REACHES ST. LAWRENCE VLY BY ERLY AFTN
AND A BTV-SYR-CMH BY EVENING. AT SFC GEM/GFS HAVE SIMILAR
PLACEMENT OF CDFNT...BUT AGAIN THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE
ENSEMBLES FASTER MEMBERS.

GFS RH FIELDS SUGGEST SCT CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF CDFNT AS AT 00UTC
BEST LIS ARE OVER MOST OF FCA. FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS HAS
BEEN RUSHING THIS FRONT...HOWEVER AT 12UTC SUNDAY NAM/GFS/GEM
POSITIONS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. SO SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ANOTHER RATHER WARM HUMID
SUMMER PARTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT
DUE TO MORE HAZE AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS AND
THEIR DEBRIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SUMMER HAS FEATURED REPEATING WEATHER PATTERNS...FIRST IT WAS
MID JULY TO MID AUGUST`S PLAGUE OF THE CUTOFFS. THE CURRENT
ITERATION IS THE REPEATING  500 HPA RIDGE CYCLE...AS MONDAY`S
PATTERN LOOKS ALOT LIKE THIS PAST MONDAY WITH A DEPARTING 500HPA
TROF AND SFC CDFNT...AND ANOTHER 500HPA RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EAST FROM GRTLKS. THE
RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TEMPS START NR
OR BLO NORMAL MONDAY...AND AGAIN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE SFC
RIDGE IS DEFINITELY WARMER...BUT MUCH MORE HUMID WITH HIGHER
RH...AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FAY IS DRAWN NORTH...AT THIS
TIME TO THE WEST OF REGION INTO TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER MAINLY FAIR AND DRY PERIOD AFTER ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THER THAN SOME LINGERING PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN FOR TONIGHT...A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT FOG
FORMATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z/FRI...INCLUDING AT KALB...AS A LIGHT
SE/E WIND POTENTIALLY ADVECTS FOG FROM THE HUDSON RIVER.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING...TRENDING INTO THE SE
THIS AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU PM THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FULL RECOVERY INTO THE
90-100 PERCENT RANGE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
WETTING FROM DEW IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.

HAINES INDICES WILL REACH 4 TO 5 THIS AFTERNOON AND FRI AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FRI...AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF ANY RESERVOIR RELEASES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/SND
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210821
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY WARM WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY
MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH JUST A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  DESPITE THE COOL
START...THE RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL WARMUP RATHER QUICKLY.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA.  THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON SHOULD
SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...
SUNNY SKIES AND ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND +14C COMBINED WITH LOTS OF SUN
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD AND
PROBABLY INTO MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND...AS LARGE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THE TIMING OF POPS WITH THE NEXT TROF/COLD FRONT SUN OR MON.

THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE
OF SOLUTIONS...MOVING A CDFNT THRU THE RGN SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MON. THE 03Z SREF/00Z GGEM/ECMWF AND GEFS ALL OFFER A SLOWER
SOLUTION...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ENTERING NEW ENGLAND UNTIL
SOMETIME MON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
INTO SUN.

THEREFORE WE WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND DELAY POPS
UNTIL SUN NIGHT AND MON. DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR
TUE/WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z GGEM AND ECMWF SPIN UP A TROPICAL LOW S OF
BERMUDA OVR THE WKND AND THEN TRACK IT NNE POSSIBLY GRAZING SE NEW
ENGLAND MON. HOWEVER THE UKMET...OPERATIONAL GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DON/T SUPPORT SUCH A SOLUTION. WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS FOR
NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO EVALUATE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES WILL KICK IN AT
LOGAN AIRPORT AROUND 15Z TODAY AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR WITH POSSIBLE SCT MVFR IN TSTMS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TRANQUIL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. COULD
HAVE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE
HAZARDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT OR MON WITH LOWERING VSBY
IN HAZE/PATCHY FOG.

TUE...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH IMPROVING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/FRANK
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KALY 210724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
324 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE. IT WILL
BRING QUITE WARM AND HUMID BUT DRY WEATHER. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...MAINLY NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY W OF BODIES OF WATER...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
ON WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 80 WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S WITHIN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE 850 T`S
WARMING TO +14C BY LATE IN THE DAY...STRONG INVERSION AROUND 875 MB
SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING POTENTIAL ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HENCE THE
EXPECTATION FOR MAXES TO ONLY REACH AROUND OR JUST OVER 80.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE
AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT
MORNING/S. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S WITHIN THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS A
LIGHT SE/E COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...FOG FORMATION MAY BE A
BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN RECENT MORNING/S...ESP WITHIN AND JUST W
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONGEST 500HPA RIDGE OVER REGION SINCE JUNE...594DM WITH CENTER FM
MAINE TO VIRGINIA...SLOWLY PIVOTS FROM A N-S ORIENTATION TO NE-SW ON
SATURDAY WITH CENTER W VA TO CAPE COD...SLIDING SOUTH SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING 500HPA TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT.

AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER REGION OR THE MID ATLC
STATES EITHER AS A HIGH CENTER OR THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA
HIGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIDAY THE REGION IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HT TO 825HPA FRI AND NEAR 800HPA
SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN. RESULT WILL BE PRIME DRY MID SUMMER WEATHER.

SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY UNRAVEL. GFS PUSHES 500HPA TROF
ACROSS THE GRTLKS WITH THE GEM BEING A BIT SLOWER WITH IT. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN IS STILL ONE OF THE FASTER MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AGAIN. AT SFC A CDFNT REACHES ST. LAWRENCE VLY BY ERLY AFTN
AND A BTV-SYR-CMH BY EVENING. AT SFC GEM/GFS HAVE SIMILAR
PLACEMENT OF CDFNT...BUT AGAIN THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE
ENSEMBLES FASTER MEMBERS.

GFS RH FIELDS SUGGEST SCT CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF CDFNT AS AT 00UTC
BEST LIS ARE OVER MOST OF FCA. FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS HAS
BEEN RUSHING THIS FRONT...HOWEVER AT 12UTC SUNDAY NAM/GFS/GEM
POSITIONS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. SO SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ANOTHER RATHER WARM HUMID
SUMMER PARTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT
DUE TO MORE HAZE AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS AND
THEIR DEBRIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SUMMER HAS FEATURED REPEATING WEATHER PATTERNS...FIRST IT WAS
MID JULY TO MID AUGUST`S PLAGUE OF THE CUTOFFS. THE CURRENT
ITERATION IS THE REPEATING  500 HPA RIDGE CYCLE...AS MONDAY`S
PATTERN LOOKS ALOT LIKE THIS PAST MONDAY WITH A DEPARTING 500HPA
TROF AND SFC CDFNT...AND ANOTHER 500HPA RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EAST FROM GRTLKS. THE
RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TEMPS START NR
OR BLO NORMAL MONDAY...AND AGAIN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE SFC
RIDGE IS DEFINITELY WARMER...BUT MUCH MORE HUMID WITH HIGHER
RH...AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FAY IS DRAWN NORTH...AT THIS
TIME TO THE WEST OF REGION INTO TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER MAINLY FAIR AND DRY PERIOD AFTER ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG FORMATION THROUGH SUNRISE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ALREADY EITHER 1 OR 0 AT KGFL AND KPOU...YET OTHER THAN A BRIEF
REDUCTION EARLIER THIS EVENING AT KGFL...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. WE
DO EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF IFR AT KGFL AFTER 08Z/THU...WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AROUND 10Z/THU. THIS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BY
12-13Z/THU. AT KPOU...WE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR IS MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/THU...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP ACCORDINGLY.
MEANWHILE...AT KALB...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS/CIGS TO OCCUR AROUND...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS A
LIGHT N/NE WIND COMPONENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO ADVECT FROM NEAR
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD THE SW/W. WE HAVE INCLUDED A 1 HOUR TEMPO
FROM 11Z-12Z ACCORDINGLY AT KALB.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
FOR TONIGHT...A SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z/FRI...INCLUDING AT
KALB...AS A LIGHT SE/E WIND ADVECTS FOG FROM THE HUDSON RIVER.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING...TRENDING INTO THE SE
THIS AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THU PM THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FULL RECOVERY INTO THE
90-100 PERCENT RANGE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
WETTING FROM DEW IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.

HAINES INDICES WILL REACH 4 TO 5 THIS AFTERNOON AND FRI AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FRI...AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF ANY RESERVOIR RELEASES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210722
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
322 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TODAY...
DRIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH-
FACING COASTS A BIT COOLER DUE TO THE ON-SHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS
THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY UNDER A NEARLY FULL AUGUST SUN UPON
LOSING THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MODIFICATION
OF THE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. SKIES GENERALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH SOME CIRRUS RETURNING FRI
NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN GRIDS JUST YET.

ON SUNDAY...H5 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
PRECIP LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST BY DAY`S END SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF FROPA...BUT IS STILL FASTER
THAN THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL BE A SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...OCCURRING SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...HAVE CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL BE LATE AT NIGHT. CHC POPS
AGAIN ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHC FOR MONDAY EVENING...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CHC.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NE BY DAYBREAK...THEN VEER AROUND
TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDR/KGON/KISP SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL SW SEA
BREEZE DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IS
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210633
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFFSHORE PROVIDING DRY NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH JUST A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  DESPITE THE COOL
START...THE RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL WARMUP RATHER QUICKLY.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA.  THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON SHOULD
SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...
SUNNY SKIES AND ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND +14C COMBINED WITH LOTS OF SUN
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 PM UPDATE: THIS UPDATE AFFECTS TUESDAYS LEGACY WORDING WITH
GRIDDED CLOUD COVER INCREASED 20 PERCENT IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE 6 HOUR PERIOD AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF AS PREVIOUSLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD/SHOWER RISKS MAY BE ASSIGNED THIS
MID SHIFT.

OTRW...BELOW FROM 429 PM

QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO SAT. AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S FRI AND SAT...THEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.

LATE SUN OR MON SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR. TIMING OF CFP AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE CHC POPS
FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS...BUT AS BEST AS I CAN ESTIMATE...MONDAY IS THE
DAY.

12Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST AND THE 12Z GFS ENS ARE SLOWER. WHAT
BOTHERS ME IS THE UKMET. THE UK SORT OF SIGNALS WHATS BEING TRYING TO
OCCUR MOST OF THE SUMMER AND WHILE ITS NOT IN OUR ENSEMBLES...NOR
APPARENTLY THE ECMWF...MODEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RETURN TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS CENTERED MON.

COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AS COLD FRONT SAGS S OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THAT SAID... SUGGEST MAKE THE MOST OF THIS WONDERFUL WEEK OF WEEK
HERE IN SNE. TRULY IDEAL AND EVEN SOME GREAT BEACH DAYS ARE UPCOMING
WITHOUT THE 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES WILL KICK IN AT
LOGAN AIRPORT AROUND 15Z TODAY AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. DAWN PATCHY MVFR HZ/FOG POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT-MON...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS/STRATUS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TRANQUIL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. COULD
HAVE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE
HAZARDS.

LATE SUNDAY OR MON...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT OR MON WITH LOWERING VSBY IN HAZE/PATCHY FOG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THUNDER DAYS IN SNE. AS A POINT OF INTEREST FROM THE BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY
ANNALS AS PRESENTED TODAY BY M IACONO... HIGHEST "ANNUAL" TSTM DAYS.

35 1927
35 1931
35 1938
34 1943
34 2008 TIED #2 AS OF THIS MOMENT 8/20/08
32 1998

THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE IS RUNNING AND SHOULD POST AT 543PM.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WIND SENSOR MODIFICATION IMPLEMENTATION TO REDUCE BIRDS CAUSING SPURIOUS
WIND GUSTS...SUCH AS OCCURRED TWICE WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT BED.

ONE SENSOR AT A TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...FRANK/DRAG
MARINE...FRANK/DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...DRAG

000
FXUS61 KALY 210542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM EACH DAY UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...MAINLY NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY W OF BODIES OF WATER...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
ON WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 80 WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S WITHIN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE 850 T`S
WARMING TO +14C BY LATE IN THE DAY...STRONG INVERSION AROUND 875 MB
SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING POTENTIAL ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HENCE THE
EXPECTATION FOR MAXES TO ONLY REACH AROUND OR JUST OVER 80.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE
AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT
MORNING/S. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S WITHIN THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS A
LIGHT SE/E COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...FOG FORMATION MAY BE A
BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN RECENT MORNING/S...ESP WITHIN AND JUST W
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONGEST 500HPA RIDGE OVER REGION SINCE JUNE...594DM WITH CENTER FM
MAINE TO VIRGINIA...SLOWLY PIVOTS FROM A N-S ORIENTATION TO NE-SW ON
SATURDAY WITH CENTER W VA TO CAPE COD...SLIDING SOUTH SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING 500HPA TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT.

AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER REGION OR THE MID ATLC
STATES EITHER AS A HIGH CENTER OR THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA
HIGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIDAY THE REGION IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HT TO 825HPA FRI AND
NEAR 800HPA SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN. RESULT WILL BE PRIME DRY MID
SUMMER WEATHER.

SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY UNRAVEL. GFS PUSHES 500HPA TROF
ACROSS THE GRTLKS WITH THE GEM BEING A BIT SLOWER WITH IT. AT SFC
A CDFNT REACHES ST. LAWRENCE VLY BY ERLY AFTN AND A BTV-SYR-CMH BY
EVENING. AT SFC GEM/GFS HAVE SIMILAR PLACEMENT...BUT RH FIELDS
SUGGEST SCT CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF CDFNT AS AT 00UTC BEST LIS ARE
OVER MOST OF FCA. FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS HAS BEEN RUSHING
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER AT 12UTC SUNDAY NAM/GFS/GEM POSITIONS ARE
AMAZINGLY CLOSE. DEFIANTLY SLOWER THAN PAST FEW DAYS RUNS...BUT A
BIT FASTER THAN LAST NIGHTS.  SO IN SHORT SUNDAY WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER RATHER WARM HUMID SUMMER PARTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT DUE TO MORE HAZE AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS WITH
SCT AFTN TSTMS AND THEIR DEBRIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AT H500 WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BY LATER SOMETIME DURING THE LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY TIME
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ALONG AND/OR
AHEAD OF IT. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF. WITH HPC FAVORING THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION...WILL LINGER POPS
INTO MONDAY MORNING...TAPERING THEM OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY MOISTURE
FROM TS FAY WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK TO REACH TO OUR
REGION...AS RIDGING BEHIND THE SUN/MON SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW RATHER WEAK...AND NO OTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL BE PULLING FAY/S MOISTURE NORTHWARD ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG FORMATION THROUGH SUNRISE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ALREADY EITHER 1 OR 0 AT KGFL AND KPOU...YET OTHER THAN A BRIEF
REDUCTION EARLIER THIS EVENING AT KGFL...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. WE
DO EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF IFR AT KGFL AFTER 08Z/THU...WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AROUND 10Z/THU. THIS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BY
12-13Z/THU. AT KPOU...WE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR IS MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/THU...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP ACCORDINGLY.
MEANWHILE...AT KALB...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS/CIGS TO OCCUR AROUND...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS A
LIGHT N/NE WIND COMPONENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO ADVECT FROM NEAR
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD THE SW/W. WE HAVE INCLUDED A 1 HOUR TEMPO
FROM 11Z-12Z ACCORDINGLY AT KALB.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
FOR TONIGHT...A SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z/FRI...INCLUDING AT
KALB...AS A LIGHT SE/E WIND ADVECTS FOG FROM THE HUDSON RIVER.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING...TRENDING INTO THE SE
THIS AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THU PM THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DEW. RH LEVELS
WILL DROP TO THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...40-45
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW AND BECOME SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE MIXING
LEVEL IS FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS...WITH A TRANSPORT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY
BY FRIDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ARE NOW RECEDING...GENERALLY ABOUT
HALF BANKFULL. RIVERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ARE CLOSE TO A QUARTER BANKFULL.

NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT REMNANTS OF FAY MIGHT NOT REACH US UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 210118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM EACH DAY UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BATCH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.  MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR CALM /DECOUPLED/ AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.  DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING CONDENSATION
AS OBSERVED BY A FEW OF OUR METAR LOCATIONS.  UPDATED GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED...

THURSDAY...H850 TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM TO ABOUT +14C. ANY
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 13Z. IF ANYTHING...WE WILL
ENJOY EVEN MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MIX TO ABOUT THE 875 MB LEVEL. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE 50S...STILL COMFORTABLE BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE
40S OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGE DOMINATES AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT. RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION. CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER KEEPING US DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND. MAV ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO WARM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...BLENDED MAV WITH MET
NUMBERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES
CANADIAN BORDER FINALLY REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND...REFER TO FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR DETAILS ON FAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AT H500 WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BY LATER SOMETIME DURING THE LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY TIME
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ALONG AND/OR
AHEAD OF IT. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF. WITH HPC FAVORING THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION...WILL LINGER POPS
FROM SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY MORNING...TAPERING THEM OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION FAVORED...HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MEX VALUES FOR SUNDAY...AS
H850 TEMPS AVERAGING +14 TO 15 C FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
ANY MOISTURE FROM TS FAY WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK TO REACH
TO OUR REGION...AS RIDGING BEHIND THE SUN/MON SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW RATHER WEAK...AND NO OTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE PULLING FAY/S MOISTURE NORTHWARD ANYTIME
SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR IDEAL AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.  BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA.  OTHERWISE...MIXING OF
THE DAY HAS CONCLUDED AND DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY ON THE RISE.  THIS
WILL PROVIDE THE VALLEYS...WHERE TERMINALS RESIDE...A GOOD SHOT FOR
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KALB-KPOU AND A PREDOMINATE TIME FRAME FOR KGFL.  FOG WILL
BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING TO ANOTHER VFR DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU PM THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DEW. RH LEVELS
WILL DROP TO THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...40-45
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW AND BECOME SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE MIXING
LEVEL IS FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS...WITH A TRANSPORT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY
BY FRIDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

 &&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ARE NOW RECEDING...GENERALLY ABOUT
HALF BANKFULL. RIVERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ARE CLOSE TO A QUARTER BANKFULL.

NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT REMNANTS OF FAY MIGHT NOT REACH US UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210102
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
902 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING UPDATE INCLUDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE NEXT 6 HOURS...OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

RIDGING BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A 1026 MB CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW WEAK MID LEVEL VORTS EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S IN/NEAR NYC...TO THE 50S MOST
ELSEWHERE...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S WELL INLAND AND IN THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THU...BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE...BUT DOMINATING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COOLER
THAN NORMAL DAY ON THU WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING...BUT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. JUST A FEW DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH SOME CIRRUS RETURNING FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN GRIDS JUST YET.

ON SUNDAY...H5 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
PRECIP LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST BY DAY`S END SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF FROPA...BUT IS STILL FASTER
THAN THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL BE A SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...OCCURRING SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...HAVE CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL BE LATE AT NIGHT. CHC POPS
AGAIN ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHC FOR MONDAY EVENING...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CHC.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER
FLOW THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTHERLY BY DAYBREAK.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLIER
AND STRONGER SEA BREEZES STARTING AROUND 16Z ON THU.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE AND
PASSING OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE TOWARD
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IS
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
850 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BUT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFFSHORE
PROVIDING DRY NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  GENERALLY...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS
WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.  THIS A RESULT OF SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A BIG DEAL.  WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  EVEN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A BIT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  850MB TEMPS WARM TWO TO
THREE DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
NEAR 60 CLOSE TO THE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 PM UPDATE: THIS UPDATE AFFECTS TUESDAYS LEGACY WORDING WITH
GRIDDED CLOUD COVER INCREASED 20 PERCENT IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE 6 HOUR PERIOD AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF AS PREVIOUSLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD/SHOWER RISKS MAY BE ASSIGNED THIS
MID SHIFT.

OTRW...BELOW FROM 429 PM

QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO SAT. AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S FRI AND SAT...THEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.

LATE SUN OR MON SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR. TIMING OF CFP AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE CHC POPS
FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS...BUT AS BEST AS I CAN ESTIMATE...MONDAY IS THE
DAY.

12Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST AND THE 12Z GFS ENS ARE SLOWER. WHAT
BOTHERS ME IS THE UKMET. THE UK SORT OF SIGNALS WHATS BEING TRYING TO
OCCUR MOST OF THE SUMMER AND WHILE ITS NOT IN OUR ENSEMBLES...NOR
APPARENTLY THE ECMWF...MODEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RETURN TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS CENTERED MON.

COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AS COLD FRONT SAGS S OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THAT SAID... SUGGEST MAKE THE MOST OF THIS WONDERFUL WEEK OF WEEK
HERE IN SNE. TRULY IDEAL AND EVEN SOME GREAT BEACH DAYS ARE UPCOMING
WITHOUT THE 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /5-8
KFT/ POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. DAWN PATCHY MVFR HZ/FOG POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT-MON...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS/STRATUS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS 5-10KTS AND SEAS FROM 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. COULD
HAVE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE
HAZARDS.

LATE SUNDAY OR MON...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT OR MON WITH LOWERING VSBY IN HAZE/PATCHY FOG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THUNDER DAYS IN SNE. AS A POINT OF INTEREST FROM THE BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY
ANNALS AS PRESENTED TODAY BY M IACONO... HIGHEST "ANNUAL" TSTM DAYS.

35 1927
35 1931
35 1938
34 1943
34 2008 TIED #2 AS OF THIS MOMENT 8/20/08
32 1998

THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE IS RUNNING AND SHOULD POST AT 543PM.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WIND SENSOR MODIFICATION IMPLEMENTATION TO REDUCE BIRDS CAUSING SPURIOUS
WIND GUSTS...SUCH AS OCCURRED TWICE WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT BED.

ONE SENSOR AT A TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...DRAG

000
FXUS61 KALY 202304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
704 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM EACH DAY UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH SLATED TO HEAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE. MOST SHOULD LEAVE OUR
AREA AFTER DARK AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON BY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S ACROSS THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...ONLY 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THE CLOUDS DEPART...WE ARE IN FOR A NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
NIGHT AS THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THESE
TWO FACTORS MIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM QUITE AS LOW AS LAST
NIGHT...BUT READINGS WILL BE VERY CLOSE AND A BIT CHILLY AGAIN.
SINCE THERE APPEARS THERE WAS ONLY ISOLATED FROST LAST
NIGHT...THINKING THERE WILL BE EVEN LESS (OR NONE) TONIGHT IN
OUTLYING AREAS...SO NO MENTION OF IT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE...BELIEVE PATCHY FOG (DENSE IN SPOTS) WILL BE
A GOOD BET. WILL INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

THURSDAY...H850 TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM TO ABOUT +14C. ANY
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 13Z. IF ANYTHING...WE WILL
ENJOY EVEN MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MIX TO ABOUT THE 875 MB LEVEL. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE 50S...STILL COMFORTABLE BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE
40S OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGE DOMINATES AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT. RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION. CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER KEEPING US DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND. MAV ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO WARM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...BLENDED MAV WITH MET
NUMBERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES
CANADIAN BORDER FINALLY REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND...REFER TO FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR DETAILS ON FAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AT H500 WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BY LATER SOMETIME DURING THE LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY TIME
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ALONG AND/OR
AHEAD OF IT. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF. WITH HPC FAVORING THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION...WILL LINGER POPS
FROM SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY MORNING...TAPERING THEM OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION FAVORED...HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MEX VALUES FOR SUNDAY...AS
H850 TEMPS AVERAGING +14 TO 15 C FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
ANY MOISTURE FROM TS FAY WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK TO REACH
TO OUR REGION...AS RIDGING BEHIND THE SUN/MON SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW RATHER WEAK...AND NO OTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE PULLING FAY/S MOISTURE NORTHWARD ANYTIME
SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR IDEAL AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.  BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA.  OTHERWISE...MIXING OF
THE DAY HAS CONCLUDED AND DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY ON THE RISE.  THIS
WILL PROVIDE THE VALLEYS...WHERE TERMINALS RESIDE...A GOOD SHOT FOR
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KALB-KPOU AND A PREDOMINATE TIME FRAME FOR KGFL.  FOG WILL
BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING TO ANOTHER VFR DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU PM THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DEW. RH LEVELS
WILL DROP TO THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...40-45
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW AND BECOME SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE MIXING
LEVEL IS FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS...WITH A TRANSPORT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY
BY FRIDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

 &&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ARE NOW RECEDING...GENERALLY ABOUT
HALF BANKFULL. RIVERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ARE CLOSE TO A QUARTER BANKFULL.

NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT REMNANTS OF FAY MIGHT NOT REACH US UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
553 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BUT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFFSHORE
PROVIDING DRY NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEARING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF
PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A BIT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  850MB TEMPS WARM TWO TO
THREE DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
NEAR 60 CLOSE TO THE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 PM UPDATE: THIS UPDATE AFFECTS TUESDAYS LEGACY WORDING WITH
GRIDDED CLOUD COVER INCREASED 20 PERCENT IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE 6 HOUR PERIOD AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF AS PREVIOUSLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD/SHOWER RISKS MAY BE ASSIGNED THIS
MID SHIFT.

OTRW...BELOW FROM 429 PM

QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO SAT. AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S FRI AND SAT...THEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.

LATE SUN OR MON SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR. TIMING OF CFP AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE CHC POPS
FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS...BUT AS BEST AS I CAN ESTIMATE...MONDAY IS THE
DAY.

12Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST AND THE 12Z GFS ENS ARE SLOWER. WHAT
BOTHERS ME IS THE UKMET. THE UK SORT OF SIGNALS WHATS BEING TRYING TO
OCCUR MOST OF THE SUMMER AND WHILE ITS NOT IN OUR ENSEMBLES...NOR
APPARENTLY THE ECMWF...MODEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RETURN TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS CENTERED MON.

COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AS COLD FRONT SAGS S OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THAT SAID... SUGGEST MAKE THE MOST OF THIS WONDERFUL WEEK OF WEEK
HERE IN SNE. TRULY IDEAL AND EVEN SOME GREAT BEACH DAYS ARE UPCOMING
WITHOUT THE 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /5-8
KFT/ POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. DAWN PATCHY MVFR HZ/FOG POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT-MON...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS/STRATUS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS 5-10KTS AND SEAS FROM 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. COULD
HAVE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE
HAZARDS.

LATE SUNDAY OR MON...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT OR MON WITH LOWERING VSBY IN HAZE/PATCHY FOG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THUNDER DAYS IN SNE. AS A POINT OF INTEREST FROM THE BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY
ANNALS AS PRESENTED TODAY BY M IACONO... HIGHEST "ANNUAL" TSTM DAYS.

35 1927
35 1931
35 1938
34 1943
34 2008 TIED #2 AS OF THIS MOMENT 8/20/08
32 1998

THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE IS RUNNING AND SHOULD POST AT 543PM.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WIND SENSOR MODIFICATION IMPLEMENTATION TO REDUCE BIRDS CAUSING SPURIOUS
WIND GUSTS...SUCH AS OCCURRED TWICE WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT BED.

ONE SENSOR AT A TIME.

&&

.SEVERE IN SE MASSACHUSETTS YDY...
SIMPLE CLARIFICATION ON DOWNBURSTS PER T. FUJITA...A STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WHICH INCLUDES AND OUTBURST OF DAMAGING WINDS ON OR NEAR THE GROUND.

MICROBURST...LESS THAN OR EQUAL 2.5 MI IN DIAMETER
MACROBURST...GREATER 2.5 MILES IN DIAMETER

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 552
DOWNBURST CLARIFICATION...DRAG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202137
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
537 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BUT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFFSHORE
PROVIDING DRY NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEARING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF
PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A BIT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  850MB TEMPS WARM TWO TO
THREE DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
NEAR 60 CLOSE TO THE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 PM UPDATE: THIS UPDATE AFFECTS TUESDAYS LEGACY WORDING WITH
GRIDDED CLOUD COVER INCREASED 20 PERCENT IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE 6 HOUR PERIOD AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF AS PREVIOUSLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD/SHOWER RISKS MAY BE ASSIGNED THIS
MID SHIFT.

OTRW...BELOW FROM 429 PM

QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO SAT. AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S FRI AND SAT...THEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.

LATE SUN OR MON SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR. TIMING OF CFP AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE CHC POPS
FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS...BUT AS BEST AS I CAN ESTIMATE...MONDAY IS THE
DAY.

12Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST AND THE 12Z GFS ENS ARE SLOWER. WHAT
BOTHERS ME IS THE UKMET. THE UK SORT OF SIGNALS WHATS BEING TRYING TO
OCCUR MOST OF THE SUMMER AND WHILE ITS NOT IN OUR ENSEMBLES...NOR
APPARENTLY THE ECMWF...MODEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RETURN TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS CENTERED MON.

COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AS COLD FRONT SAGS S OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THAT SAID... SUGGEST MAKE THE MOST OF THIS WONDERFUL WEEK OF WEEK
HERE IN SNE. TRULY IDEAL AND EVEN SOME GREAT BEACH DAYS ARE UPCOMING
WITHOUT THE 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /5-8
KFT/ POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. DAWN PATCHY MVFR HZ/FOG POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT-MON...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS/STRATUS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS 5-10KTS AND SEAS FROM 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. COULD
HAVE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE
HAZARDS.

LATE SUNDAY OR MON...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT OR MON WITH LOWERING VSBY IN HAZE/PATCHY FOG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THUNDER DAYS IN SNE. AS A POINT OF INTEREST FROM THE BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY
ANNALS AS PRESENTED TODAY BY M IACONO... HIGHEST "ANNUAL" TSTM DAYS.

35 1927
35 1931
35 1938
34 1943
34 2008 TIED #2 AS OF THIS MOMENT 8/20/08
32 1998

THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE IS RUNNING AND SHOULD POST AT 543PM.

&&

.SEVERE IN SE MASSACHUSETTS YDY...
SIMPLE CLARIFICATION ON DOWNBURSTS PER T. FUJITA...A STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WHICH INCLUDES AND OUTBURST OF DAMAGING WINDS ON OR NEAR THE GROUND.

MICROBURST...LESS THAN OR EQUAL 2.5 MI IN DIAMETER
MACROBURST...GREATER 2.5 MILES IN DIAMETER

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
CLIMATE...DRAG 535
DOWNBURST CLARIFICATION...DRAG 535

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202051
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BUT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFFSHORE
PROVIDING DRY NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEARING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.  SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MOST LOCATIONS
WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF PROVIDENCE AND
BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A BIT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  850MB TEMPS WARM TWO TO
THREE DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
NEAR 60 CLOSE TO THE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 PM UPDATE: THIS UPDATE AFFECTS TUESDAYS LEGACY WORDING WITH
GRIDDED CLOUD COVER INCREASED 20 PERCENT IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE 6 HOUR PERIOD AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF AS PREVIOUSLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD/SHOWER RISKS MAY BE ASSIGNED THIS
MID SHIFT.

OTRW...BELOW FROM 429 PM

QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO SAT. AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S FRI AND SAT...THEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.

LATE SUN OR MON SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR. TIMING OF CFP AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE CHC POPS
FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS...BUT AS BEST AS I CAN ESTIMATE...MONDAY IS THE
DAY.

12Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST AND THE 12Z GFS ENS ARE SLOWER. WHAT
BOTHERS ME IS THE UKMET. THE UK SORT OF SIGNALS WHATS BEING TRYING TO
OCCUR MOST OF THE SUMMER AND WHILE ITS NOT IN OUR ENSEMBLES...NOR
APPARENTLY THE ECMWF...MODEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RETURN TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS CENTERED MON.

COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AS COLD FRONT SAGS S OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THAT SAID... SUGGEST MAKE THE MOST OF THIS WONDERFUL WEEK OF WEEK
HERE IN SNE. TRULY IDEAL AND EVEN SOME GREAT BEACH DAYS ARE UPCOMING
WITHOUT THE 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /5-8
KFT/ POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. DAWN PATCHY MVFR HZ/FOG POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT-MON...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS/STRATUS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS 5-10KTS AND SEAS FROM 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. COULD
HAVE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE
HAZARDS.

LATE SUNDAY OR MON...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT OR MON WITH LOWERING VSBY IN HAZE/PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SEVERE IN SE MASSACHUSETTS YDY...
SIMPLE CLARIFICATION ON DOWNBURSTS PER T. FUJITA...A STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WHICH INCLUDES AND OUTBURST OF DAMAGING WINDS ON OR NEAR THE GROUND.

MICROBURST...LESS THAN OR EQUAL 2.5 MI IN DIAMETER
MACROBURST...GREATER 2.5 MILES IN DIAMETER

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG 451
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
DOWNBURST CLARIFICATION...DRAG 451

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BUT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFFSHORE
PROVIDING DRY NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEARING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.  SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MOST LOCATIONS
WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF PROVIDENCE AND
BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A BIT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  850MB TEMPS WARM TWO TO
THREE DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
NEAR 60 CLOSE TO THE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO SAT. AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S FRI AND SAT...THEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.

LATE SUN OR MON SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR. TIMING OF CFP AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE CHC POPS
FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS...BUT AS BEST AS I CAN ESTIMATE...MONDAY IS THE
DAY.

12Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST AND THE 12Z GFS ENS ARE SLOWER. WHAT
BOTHERS ME IS THE UKMET. THE UK SORT OF SIGNALS WHATS BEING TRYING TO
OCCUR MOST OF THE SUMMER AND WHILE ITS NOT IN OUR ENSEMBLES...NOR
APPARENTLY THE ECMWF...MODEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RETURN TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS CENTERED MON.

COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AS COLD FRONT SAGS S OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THAT SAID... SUGGEST MAKE THE MOST OF THIS WONDERFUL WEEK OF WEEK
HERE IN SNE. TRULY IDEAL AND EVEN SOME GREAT BEACH DAYS ARE UPCOMING
WITHOUT THE 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /5-8
KFT/ POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. DAWN PATCHY MVFR HZ/FOG POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT-MON...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS/STRATUS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS 5-10KTS AND SEAS FROM 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. COULD
HAVE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE
HAZARDS.

LATE SUNDAY OR MON...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT OR MON WITH LOWERING VSBY IN HAZE/PATCHY FOG.

&&
.SEVERE IN SE MASSACHUSETTS YDY...
SIMPLE CLARIFICATION ON DOWNBURSTS PER T. FUJITA...A STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WHICH INCLUDES AND OUTBURST OF DAMAGING WINDS ON OR NEAR THE GROUND.

MICROBURST...LESS THAN OR EQUAL 2.5 MI IN DIAMETER
MACROBURST...GREATER 2.5 MILES IN DIAMETER

&&


.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 428
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG 428
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG 428
MARINE...DRAG/RLG 428

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201942
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BUT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFFSHORE...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEARING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.  SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MOST LOCATIONS
WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF PROVIDENCE AND
BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A BIT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  850MB TEMPS WARM TWO TO
THREE DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
NEAR 60 CLOSE TO THE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHEAST. AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S FRI AND SAT...THEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE 00Z
GGEM/ECMWF AND THE GEFS ARE ALL A BIT SLOWER...INDICATING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MON OR EARLY TUE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO MUCH OF MON. ALTHOUGH GIVEN
THIS TIME RANGE AND TO ALLOW SOME MARGIN OF ERROR...WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AS COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /5-8
KFT/ POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.  HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SEE SOME DETERIORATION TO
MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS 5-10KTS AND SEAS FROM 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO
MARINE HAZARDS.

SUNDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 201937
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM EACH DAY UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH SLATED TO HEAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE. MOST SHOULD LEAVE OUR
AREA AFTER DARK AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON BY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S ACROSS THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...ONLY 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THE CLOUDS DEPART...WE ARE IN FOR A NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
NIGHT AS THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THESE
TWO FACTORS MIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM QUITE AS LOW AS LAST
NIGHT...BUT READINGS WILL BE VERY CLOSE AND A BIT CHILLY AGAIN.
SINCE THERE APPEARS THERE WAS ONLY ISOLATED FROST LAST
NIGHT...THINKING THERE WILL BE EVEN LESS (OR NONE) TONIGHT IN
OUTLYING AREAS...SO NO MENTION OF IT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE...BELIEVE PATCHY FOG (DENSE IN SPOTS) WILL BE
A GOOD BET. WILL INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

TOMORROW...H850 TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM TO ABOUT +14C. ANY
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 13Z. IF ANYTHING...WE WILL
ENJOY EVEN MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MIX TO ABOUT THE 875 MB LEVEL. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE 50S...STILL COMFORTABLE BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE
40S OF TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGE DOMINATES AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT. RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION. CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER KEEPING US DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND. MAV ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO WARM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...BLENDED MAV WITH MET
NUMBERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES
CANADIAN BORDER FINALLY REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND...REFER TO FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR DETAILS ON FAY.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AT H500 WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BY LATER SOMETIME DURING THE LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY TIME
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ALONG AND/OR
AHEAD OF IT. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF. WITH HPC FAVORING THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION...WILL LINGER POPS
FROM SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY MORNING...TAPERING THEM OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION FAVORED...HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MEX VALUES FOR SUNDAY...AS
H850 TEMPS AVERAGING +14 TO 15 C FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
ANY MOISTURE FROM TS FAY WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK TO REACH
TO OUR REGION...AS RIDGING BEHIND THE SUN/MON SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW RATHER WEAK...AND NO OTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE PULLING FAY/S MOISTURE NORTHWARD ANYTIME
SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO AND A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT THAT`S IT.
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE AS A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
BLOWS UNDER 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL SUNDOWN.

FOG MIGHT BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR OUR TERMINALS TONIGHT AS THE
WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM...AND MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH THE COLUMN. RIGHT NOW...AT THE VERY
LEAST...PLAN FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IFR AT KGLF NEAR DAWN. IF
HIGH CLOUDS HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT...THEY COULD MITIGATE THE FOG
FORMATION SOMEWHAT.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
VFR DAY IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NITE THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DEW. RH LEVELS
WILL DROP TO THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...40-45
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW AND BECOME SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE MIXING
LEVEL IS FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS...WITH A TRANSPORT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY
BY FRIDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

 &&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ARE NOW RECEDING...GENERALLY ABOUT
HALF BANKFULL. RIVERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ARE CLOSE TO A QUARTER BANKFULL.

NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT REMNANTS OF FAY MIGHT NOT REACH US UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KOKX 201935 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
333 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A 1026 MB CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW WEAK MID LEVEL VORTS EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. TRICKIEST PART OF THE
FORECAST TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
DISTURBANCES...MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THINK
MOST OF IT SHOULD ERODE WITH THE BULK OF IT PASSING EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS END UP BEING
THICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS COULD END UP BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN FORECAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S IN/NEAR
NYC...TO THE 50S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THU...BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE...BUT DOMINATING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COOLER
THAN NORMAL DAY ON THU WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING...BUT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. JUST A FEW DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH SOME CIRRUS RETURNING FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN GRIDS JUST YET.

ON SUNDAY...H5 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
PRECIP LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST BY DAY`S END SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF FROPA...BUT IS STILL FASTER
THAN THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL BE A SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...OCCURRING SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...HAVE CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL BE LATE AT NIGHT. CHC POPS
AGAIN ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHC FOR MONDAY EVENING...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CHC.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES OF LESS THAN 10 KT WILL DEVELOP AT JUST A FEW
LOCATIONS INCLUDING KJFK AND DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE
UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE 00Z AND LAST UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNRISE THURSDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLIER
AND STRONGER SEA BREEZES STARTING AROUND 16Z ON THU.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE AND PASSING OFF THE COAST.
THE CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IS
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KOKX 201933
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
333 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A 1026 MB CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW WEAK MID LEVEL VORTS EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. TRICKIEST PART OF THE
FORECAST TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
DISTURBANCES...MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THINK
MOST OF IT SHOULD ERODE WITH THE BULK OF IT PASSING EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS END UP BEING
THICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS COULD END UP BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN FORECAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S IN/NEAR
NYC...TO THE 50S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THU AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON THU WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH
SATURDAY. JUST A FEW DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH SOME
CIRRUS RETURNING FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN GRIDS JUST YET.

ON SUNDAY...H5 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
PRECIP LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST BY DAY`S END SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF FROPA...BUT IS STILL FASTER
THAN THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL BE A SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...OCCURRING SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...HAVE CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL BE LATE AT NIGHT. CHC POPS
AGAIN ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHC FOR MONDAY EVENING...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CHC.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES OF LESS THAN 10 KT WILL DEVELOP AT JUST A FEW
LOCATIONS INCLUDING KJFK AND DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE
UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE 00Z AND LAST UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNRISE THURSDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLIER
AND STRONGER SEA BREEZES STARTING AROUND 16Z ON THU.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE AND PASSING OFF THE COAST.
THE CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IS
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 201843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
243 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM EACH DAY UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH SLATED TO HEAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE. MOST SHOULD LEAVE OUR
AREA AFTER DARK AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON BY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S ACROSS THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...ONLY 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THE CLOUDS DEPART...WE ARE IN FOR A NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
NIGHT AS THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THESE
TWO FACTORS MIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM QUITE AS LOW AS LAST
NIGHT...BUT READINGS WILL BE VERY CLOSE AND A BIT CHILLY AGAIN.
SINCE THERE APPEARS THERE WAS ONLY ISOLATED FROST LAST
NIGHT...THINKING THERE WILL BE EVEN LESS (OR NONE) TONIGHT IN
OUTLYING AREAS...SO NO MENTION OF IT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE...BELIEVE PATCHY FOG (DENSE IN SPOTS) WILL BE
A GOOD BET. WILL INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

TOMORROW...H850 TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM TO ABOUT +14C. ANY
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 13Z. IF ANYTHING...WE WILL
ENJOY EVEN MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MIX TO ABOUT THE 875 MB LEVEL. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE 50S...STILL COMFORTABLE BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE
40S OF TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGE DOMINATES AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT. RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION. CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER KEEPING US DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND. MAV ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO WARM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...BLENDED MAV WITH MET
NUMBERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES
CANADIAN BORDER FINALLY REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND...REFER TO FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR DETAILS ON FAY.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DAYS 3 & 4...RIDGE AT 500HPA ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OFF NEW ENG BUT HAS WESTERN RIDGE AXIS FM
CAPE COD TO KROA. SAT NT 500HPA RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH WITH AXIS FM
TENNESSEE VLY TO DELMARVA...WHICH ALLOWS TROF OVER CENTRAL CANADA
TO PUSH EAST ALONG WITH ITS SFC CDFNT.

DAYS 5 TO 7...SUN MRNG THE GFS BRINGS THIS CDFNT FRONT TO ROUGHLY
A YOW TO KTOL LN...AND QUICKLY PUSHES IT THUR THE FCA SUN AFTN AND
EVENING AS 500 HPA TROF MOVES THROUGH THE RGN. IT BUILDS A SFC
HIGH EAST FROM THE GRTLKS AS WELL AS ANOTHER 500HPA RIDGE...JAMMING
FAY UP ALONG THE GULF COAST TO WANDER WESTWARD...WITH THE CAPTURE
OF ITS MOISTURE AND REMNANTS BY THE WESTERLIES DELAYED TILL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GEM...WHERE THE CDFNT NEVER GETS HERE
BUT ALOT OF OTHER ISSUES DO. THE GEM SLOWS THE FRONT TO A STALL
MONDAY MORNING FROM LK ERIE TO YQB..BUT IT ALSO IMPLIES WITH THIS
STALL...A CAPTURING OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY AND ITS MOISTURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST MUCH FASTER IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AND
THE INTERACTION OF THE REMNANTS WITH THE CDFNT AS IT SAGS SLOWLY
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE IS THE NEW ECMWF WHICH TIMES THE CDFNT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND GEM...SUN NT FRONT REACHES YOW TO DTW...MOVING THRU FCA
DURING MONDAY. IT TAKES FAY BACK INTO THE OPEN GULF AND TURNS IT
NORTH INTO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS IT SEPARATE FM THE
CDFNT AFFECTING OUR FCA AS WELL AS TH WESTERLIES.

THIS HAS BEEN A RECURRING THEME WITH THIS PERIOD FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER WITH THIS CDFNT.
WILL PROBABLY ONLY TAKE POPS OUT OF MORNING SUNDAY...AND KEEP REST
OF FCST AS ITS BEEN WITH INCR CHC PCPN. BEYOND SLOWING THE FRONT
SOME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL USE GMOS...AS IT RETAINS CONTINUITY
WITH CURRENT FCST...WHICH GOES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING EAST
SCENARIO FOR THE END OF EFP PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO AND A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT THAT`S IT.
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE AS A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
BLOWS UNDER 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL SUNDOWN.

FOG MIGHT BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR OUR TERMINALS TONIGHT AS THE
WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM...AND MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH THE COLUMN. RIGHT NOW...AT THE VERY
LEAST...PLAN FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IFR AT KGLF NEAR DAWN. IF
HIGH CLOUDS HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT...THEY COULD MITIGATE THE FOG
FORMATION SOMEWHAT.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...NOTHER BEAUTIFUL
VFR DAY IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NITE THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC AM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DEW. RH LEVELS
WILL DROP TO THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...40-45
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW AND BECOME SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE MIXING
LEVEL IS FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS...WITH A TRANSPORT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY
BY FRIDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

 &&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ARE NOW RECEEDING...GENERALLY ABOUT
HALF BANKFUL. RIVERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ARE CLOSE TO A QUARTER BANKFULL.

NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT REMNANTS OF FAY MIGHT NOT REACH US UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 201749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM EACH DAY UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH SLATED TO HEAD
SOUTHWARD. THESE CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
MOST SHOULD LEAVE OUR AREA AFTER DARK.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING TROUGH THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF OUR
REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ECLIPSING THE
70 DEGREE MARK. NO NEED TO UPDATE ANYMORE THIS AFTERNOON.

ENJOY THE DRY WEATHER!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED