000
ATHW40 PHFO 171234
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT MAY 17 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 17 2008

SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS HAVE CLEARED SINCE LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN HALF OF
KAUAI...THE KOOLAU MTS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...AND THE SLOPES OF HALEAKALA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
CLEARING OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND REMAIN OVER
THE WINDWARD SECTION OF THE ISLAND.

A BAND OF CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF KAUAI HAS DISSIPATED FURTHER OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NOW CONTAINS PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
REACHING 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE BAND STARTS TO SHOW
CONTINUITY 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF OAHU WITH OVERCAST CUMULUS AND
EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS AS IT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER 30N 145W.
THE CLOUD BAND HAS REMAINED STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE AND CLOUD MOTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC REFLECTS THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...BETWEEN 10N AND 20N...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ARE MOVING GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...BETWEEN 22N AND 30N...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. LOW CLOUDS ARE BROKEN STRATUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS NEAR 140W WHILE WEST OF 155W LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS.

HIGH CLOUDS GENERATED BY A FRONT NORTH OF 30N ARE PUSHING TO THE
SOUTH AS FAR AS 27N BETWEEN 160W AND THE DATELINE.

$$

MORRISON

000
ATHW40 PHFO 171230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT MAY 17 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 17 2008

SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS HAVE CLEARED SINCE LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN HALF OF
KAUAI...THE KOOLAU MTS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...AND THE SLOPES OF HALEAKALA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
CLEARING OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND REMAIN OVER
THE WINDWARD SECTION OF THE ISLAND.

A BAND OF CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF KAUAI HAS DISSIPATED FURTHER OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NOW CONTAINS PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
REACHING 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE BAND STARTS TO SHOW
CONTINUITY 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF OAHU WITH OVERCAST CUMULUS AND
EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS AS IT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER 30N 145W.
THE CLOUD BAND HAS REMAINED STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE AND CLOUD MOTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC REFLECTS THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...BETWEEN 10N AND 20N...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ARE MOVING GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...BETWEEN 22N AND 30N...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. LOW CLOUDS ARE BROKEN STRATUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS NEAR 140W WHILE WEST OF 155W LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS.

HIGH CLOUDS GENERATED BY A FRONT NORTH OF 30N ARE PUSHING TO THE
SOUTH AS FAR AS 27N BETWEEN 160W AND THE DATELINE.

$$

MORRISON

000
FXHW60 PHFO 170622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HAZY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON SEABREEZES CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AGAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHILE LIGHT TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE BIG ISLAND. AS THE
WEAK TRADES GRADUALLY FILL IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXPECT THE VOG TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. WITH THE RETURN OF THE TRADES...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS TO CLEAN UP SOME DISCREPANCIES. HAVE SENT AN UPDATE A
SHORT TIME AGO TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF WEAK TRADES TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN THE THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING OF OUR
HAZY SKIES AND THE DISPERSION OF THE VOG. AT THE MOMENT...THE WINDS
NEAR THE SOURCES OF THE GASES AT THE VOLCANIC CRATERS ON THE BIG
ISLAND ARE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTH NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. THIS IS
A HOPEFUL SIGN FOR SOME OF THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY
THESE GASES ON THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL MONITOR
THESE LOCAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT TO SEE IF
THESE WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN DISPERSION OF THE
VOLCANIC GASES TOWARD THE OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF THE SOURCES. WILL ALSO
LOOK FOR ANY SIGNS OF AN EARLY RETURN TO WEAK TRADES OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO RELIEF FROM THE HAZY
CONDITIONS THERE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AT THE
MOMENT...WE STILL EXPECT THE HAZY SKIES TO CONTINUE ON THE ISLANDS
WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 400 PM HST...VOLCANIC HAZE REMAINED THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AS WINDS WERE LIGHT UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE. THOUGH WEAK
EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE BARELY REACHED THE BIG
ISLAND...THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL CLOUD BAND LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
KAUAI SHOWED LITTLE INCLINATION TO DEPART. AWAY FROM THE CLOUD
BAND...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE WAS EXTREMELY SPARSE IN THE
FACE OF OVERPOWERING SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD BAND WILL NOT MOVE MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM...IT HAS LOST
UPPER SUPPORT AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH TIME. WHILE STRENGTHENING
TRADES WILL TEND TO CARRY MORE OF THE VOLCANIC EMISSIONS FROM
KILAUEA WEST AND AWAY FROM THE SMALLER ISLANDS...THE HAZE ALREADY
PRESENT AROUND THESE ISLANDS MAY TAKE A BIG LONGER TO DISSIPATE IN
THE NEARLY STAGNANT FLOW THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

ALOFT...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOWED UNUSUALLY
LARGE AMPLITUDE FOR THE SEASON...WITH DEEP LOWS EXTENDING TO SOUTH
OF 30N IN PLACES AS THEY MOVED TOWARD THE EAST. A MASSIVE RIDGE
FILLED MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND NORTH AMERICA...
THOUGH A DEEP...COMPACT LOW STUBBORNLY PERSISTED NEAR 23N 137W.

GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD...ENABLING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE SURFACE TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTH AS WELL...PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. IN THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THE
TRADES WILL INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE PRECISE DETAILS...AND IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS
LIKE THE TRADES WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO THAT DIURNAL WINDS MAY REMAIN A SERIOUS CONSIDERATION.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE IN COMBINATION WITH THE PERSISTENT DEEP LOW
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RESULTING DESTABILIZATION ALOFT MAY REINFORCE
YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE
SURFACE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...IT LIKELY WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THEM AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...THE CURRENT NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND. A NEW SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY
STRONG WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A STORM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT THIS SWELL TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. NOTE
THAT SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE INTERCEPTED AND
BLOCKED BY THE BIG ISLAND. THEREFORE...THE SWELL HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY REDUCED ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY FROM OAHU TO MAUI.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DISCUSSION...HOUSTON
PREV DISCUSSION...RYSHKO
MARINE...HOUSTON

000
ATHW40 PHFO 170527
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SAT MAY 17 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MAY 17 2008

MOST OF THE ISLANDS ARE COVERED WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING
DUE TO SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE BROKEN
SKIES ARE THE NORTH SHORE OF MAUI WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND THE
SUMMITS OF HALEAKALA...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA WHICH HAVE CLEAR
SKIES. A 75 MILE RAGGED CLOUD BAND IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI
AND EXTENDS 400 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST AND 600 MILES TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THE BAND BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WITH OVERCAST CUMULUS AND EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS AS IT
EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER 30N 145W.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE AND CLOUD MOTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC REFLECTS THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...BETWEEN 10N AND 20N...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ARE MOVING GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...BETWEEN 22N AND 30N...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. LOW CLOUDS ARE A MIX OF STRATUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS NEAR 140W WHILE WEST OF 155W LOW CLOUDS ARE
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS.

ALONG 30N SOME HIGH CLOUDS GENERATED BY A FRONT TO THE NORTH ARE
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AS FAR AS 28N.

$$
MORRISON

000
FXHW60 PHFO 170133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND HAZY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAY PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER. WEAK TRADES WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH ALONG THE
ARCHIPELAGO...GRADUALLY BLOWING THE VOLCANIC HAZE WEST AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH RAINFALL WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VOLCANIC HAZE REMAINED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS WINDS WERE LIGHT UNDER A SURFACE
RIDGE. THOUGH WEAK EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE
BARELY REACHED THE BIG ISLAND...THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL CLOUD BAND
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI SHOWED LITTLE INCLINATION TO DEPART.
AWAY FROM THE CLOUD BAND...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE WAS
EXTREMELY SPARSE IN THE FACE OF OVERPOWERING SUBSIDENCE AND A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD BAND WILL NOT MOVE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...IT HAS LOST UPPER SUPPORT AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH
TIME. WHILE STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL TEND TO CARRY MORE OF THE
VOLCANIC EMISSIONS FROM KILAUEA WEST AND AWAY FROM THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...THE HAZE ALREADY PRESENT AROUND THESE ISLANDS MAY TAKE A
BIG LONGER TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEARLY STAGNANT FLOW THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

ALOFT...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOWED UNUSUALLY
LARGE AMPLITUDE FOR THE SEASON...WITH DEEP LOWS EXTENDING TO SOUTH
OF 30N IN PLACES AS THEY MOVED TOWARD THE EAST. A MASSIVE RIDGE
FILLED MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND NORTH AMERICA...
THOUGH A DEEP...COMPACT LOW STUBBORNLY PERSISTED NEAR 23N 137W.

GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD...ENABLING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE SURFACE TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTH AS WELL...PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. IN THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THE
TRADES WILL INTNEISFY SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE PRECISE DETAILS...AND IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS
LIKE THE TRADES WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO THAT DIURNAL WINDS MAY REMAIN A SERIOUS CONSIDERATION.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE IN COMBINATION WITH THE PERSISTENT DEEP LOW
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RESULTING DESTABILIZATION ALOFT MAY REINFORCE
YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE
SURFACE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...IT LIKELY WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THEM AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

RYSHKO

000
ATHW40 PHFO 170000
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0000 UTC SAT MAY 17 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 2330 UTC MAY 16 2008

CONVECTIVE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE ALOHA STATE THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON.  CEILINGS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO MAUKA...UPSLOPE AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS ON THE INDIVIDUAL ISLES.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE OVER KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND AS OF BULLETIN TIME.  MOST
COASTAL AREAS ARE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN AREAS OF KAUAI AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...
OAHU AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH KONA ON THE BIG
ISLAND.  LOW CLOUD MOTION IS FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH JUST EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND AND VEERS GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH MOVING UP THE CHAIN TO KAUAI.

SKIES ARE PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.  HOWEVER...REMNANT BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE LOCATED SOUTHWEST CLOCKWISE THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF KAUAI.  THIS CLOUDINESS EXTENDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS
A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST.  MOST OF THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
FOUND WITHIN 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N147W TO 26N148W
TO 23N153W.

AN UPPER LOW REMAINS MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  THE LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 23.5N 137.5W AS OF 2330 UTC...1330 HST.  IT HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.  THE FEATURE IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
TO ITS NORTHEAST CLOCKWISE THROUGH SOUTHEAST.

$$

KINEL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 161934
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND HAZY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK TRADES WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH ALONG THE
ARCHIPELAGO...GRADUALLY BLOWING THE VOLCANIC HAZE WEST AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH RAINFALL WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY. THE CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
DISSIPATE GRADUALLY WITHOUT DROPPING MUCH RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VOLCANIC HAZE REMAINED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS WINDS WERE LIGHT UNDER A SURFACE
RIDGE. THOUGH WEAK EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE
BARELY REACHED THE BIG ISLAND...THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL CLOUD BAND
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI SHOWED LITTLE INCLINATION TO
DEPART. AWAY FROM THE CLOUD BAND...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE
WAS EXTREMELY SPARSE IN THE FACE OF OVERPOWERING SUBSIDENCE AND A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD BAND WILL NOT MOVE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...IT HAS LOST UPPER SUPPORT AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH
TIME.

THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW SPLITTING TO CIRCLE THE BIG ISLAND CARRIED
VOLCANIC EMISSIONS FROM KILAUEA BOTH TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND
SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THOUGH THE HALEMAUMAU PLUME FELL INTO THE LATTER
CATEGORY. WHILE STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL TEND TO CARRY MORE OF THE
EMISSIONS WEST AND AWAY FROM THE SMALLER ISLANDS...THE HAZE ALREADY
PRESENT THERE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEARLY
STAGNANT FLOW.

ALOFT...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOWED UNUSUALLY
LARGE AMPLITUDE FOR THE SEASON...WITH DEEP LOWS EXTENDING TO SOUTH
OF 30N IN PLACES AS THEY MOVED TOWARD THE EAST. A MASSIVE RIDGE
FILLED MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND NORTH AMERICA...
THOUGH A DEEP...COMPACT LOW MANAGED TO PERSIST NEAR 25N 140W.

GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD NORTHWARD...ENABLING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE
SURFACE TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTH AS WELL...PUSHING THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. IN THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT THE TRADES WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
THE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE PRECISE DETAILS...AND IN ANY CASE IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO THAT DIURNAL WINDS WILL REMAIN A SERIOUS CONSIDERATION.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A HUGE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE IN COMBINATION WITH THE PERSISTENT DEEP LOW
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RESULTING DESTABILIZATION ALOFT MAY REINFORCE
YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE
SURFACE BY NEXT WEEKEND...TURNING THE FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

RYSHKO

000
ATHW40 PHFO 161800
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1800 UTC FRI MAY 16 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1730 UTC MAY 16 2008

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING.
AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXISTS AS AN EAST-TO-WEST
BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST OF KAUAI TO NORTH OF MAUI
COUNTY.  THE FEATURE CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND.  MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE LOCATED
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GARDEN ISLE.  SOME OF THE
PERIPHERAL CLOUDINESS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BAND IS CAUSING LOW
CEILINGS OVER KAUAI AS OF BULLETIN TIME.  SKIES ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
ALOHA STATE ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALBEIT HAZY IN MANY AREAS.

EXCEPT FOR THE CLOUDINESS DESCRIBED ABOVE...CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR TO
SCATTERED IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

IN THE UPPER AIR...THE MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LOW FAR
EAST OF THE ISLANDS...NEAR 23N 138W.  THIS IS AROUND 1100 MILES EAST
OF HILO.  AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
CLOCKWISE THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW.

$$

KINEL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 161402
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
402 AM HST FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...BUT
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND
OAHU THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE...LIGHT LAND
BREEZES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
COASTAL SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
RETURN TONIGHT...PUSHING VOG SOUTHWEST OUT OVER THE OCEAN. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN STATEWIDE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF KAUAI IS BRINGING CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
CLEARING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
ALLOWING EASTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT. THE
LIGHT EASTERLIES WILL PUSH VOG FROM THE BIG ISLAND TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THEN WEST...OVER THE OCEAN AWAY FROM THE MOST
POPULATED AREAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL STAY IN A
SEA/LAND BREEZE REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LINGERING HAZE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. AIR QUALITY WILL IMPROVE AS
THE TRADE WINDS INCREASE...AND IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSES BY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE RIDGE/S PROXIMITY
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH...AND THE ISLANDS
UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME. PRECIP WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY...AND
CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SURF
FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE LONG RANGE.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON

000
ATHW40 PHFO 161227
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAY 16 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 16 2008

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT APPARENTLY HAD STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF
KAUAI OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT HAD BECOME DIFFUSE NEAR KAUAI WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND WAS SPRAWLED ACROSS KAUAI AND THE KAUAI
CHANNEL.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND STRETCHED THROUGH 30N
147W TO 24N 152W ACROSS KAUAI TO 19N 168W.

WEST OF 160W...THE CLOUD BAND WAS FALLING APART WITH NUMEROUS CLEAR
GAPS BETWEEN THE BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MAKING UP THE BAND.
BETWEEN 160W AND 153W...THE BAND CONSISTED OF MORE TIGHTLY PACKED
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS.  BUT THIS SEGMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BAND ALSO HAD GAPS OF CLEARING BETWEEN THE CLOUD ELEMENTS.  AS THE
BAND CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF 153W...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS PREVAILED.  THAT
PART OF THE FRONTAL BAND EAST OF 153W WAS ALSO DRIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD... UNLIKE THE NEARLY STATIONARY SEGMENT TO ITS WEST.

A NORTHWARD BULGE OR KINK HAD DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD BAND NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI.  THIS WAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N 161W OR ABOUT 125 NORTHWEST OF KAUAI.  THE
LOW WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

AT THE OTHER END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...THE BIG ISLAND STILL HAD SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDINESS MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THAT ISLAND.
MOST OF THE CLOUDS WERE OVER THE NORTH KONA AND SOUTH KOHALA
DISTRICTS.  THE HILO...PUNA AND KAU DISTRICTS WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.
MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU WERE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND
WAS ALMOST TOUCHING THE NORTH COAST OF OAHU.

$$

000
FXHW60 PHFO 160615
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
815 PM HST THU MAY 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
STATEWIDE...BUT A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...LIGHT LAND
BREEZES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO
COASTAL SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
RETURN THIS WEEKEND...PUSHING VOG SOUTHWEST OUT OVER THE OCEAN.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN STATEWIDE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIMITED RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND WHERE SOME
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS FELL THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN GAGE AT
KAPAPALA RANCH REPORTED 0.58 INCHES WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND
DAYTIME HEATING...FORMING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF
MAUNA LOA.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STATE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 70 MILES
NORTH OF KAUAI IS SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GARDEN
ISLE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY
REACH AS FAR AS OAHU BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES FRIDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ALLOWING EASTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LIGHT EASTERLIES WILL PUSH VOG FROM
THE BIG ISLAND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AND THEN WEST...OVER THE
OCEAN AWAY FROM THE MOST POPULATED AREAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE WILL STAY IN A SEA/LAND BREEZE REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH LINGERING HAZE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. AIR QUALITY
WILL IMPROVE AS THE TRADE WINDS INCREASE...AND IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSES BY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE RIDGE/S PROXIMITY
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH...AND THE ISLANDS
UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME. PRECIP WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DROP FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
SURF FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE LONG RANGE.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON/DEJESUS

000
FXHW60 PHFO 160158
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU MAY 15 2008


.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING FRONT BRUSHES KAUAI.
GENERALLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...BUT THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...LIGHT LAND BREEZES AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO COASTAL SEA BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE BIG
ISLAND WILL SEE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW RETURN THIS WEEKEND...BEGINNING
TO PUSH THE VOG SOUTHWEST OUT OVER THE OCEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE STATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY THERE IS A COLD FRONT ABOUT 110 NM NW OF KAUAI. THE RIDGE
AXIS STILL REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND. RADAR IS ONLY
PICKING UP VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED RETURNS. THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD VERY SLOWLY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KAUAI. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE BIG ISLAND LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE VOG SOUTHWEST
AND THEN WEST OUT OVER THE OCEAN AWAY FROM THE MOST POPULATED AREAS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL STAY IN A SEA/LAND BREEZE REGIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING HAZE FOR SOME
ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. AIR QUALITY SHOULD
BEGIN AN IMPROVING TREND THIS WEEKEND...THEN GETTING BACK TO NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEK LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE SLATED TO RETURN. THE
PRECIP PATTERN WILL AGAIN APPROACH A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN AS
WELL WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE STATE MAY BECOME A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THROW ANOTHER OUT OF SEASON
MODERATE AMPLITUDE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST NEAR THE DATELINE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYERED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WOULD SERVE
AS THE MECHANISM FORCING THE UPPER LOW BACK TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THE
GFS SOLUTION HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH REMAINS FASTER AND
MORE AGGRESSIVE. NEITHER MODELS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION AND ITS A BIT EARLY TO MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS
OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER WINDWARD/MAUKA AREAS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL FILLED IN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SURF HEIGHTS
TODAY ARE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET OVERHEAD...TOPPING OUT AROUND DOUBLE
OVERHEAD AT STANDOUT NORTH FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WITH SETS
REACHING 12 FEET ON THE FACE. THE SWELL WILL FADE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SURF FORECAST FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THE LONG RANGE.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DEJESUS

000
FXHW60 PHFO 151941
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAY 15 2008

.UPDATE...
THE GRIDS ARE LOOKING ON TRACK THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN
REMAINS THE POOR AIR QUALITY AND TIMING THE RETURN OF ANY TRADE WIND
FLOW. VOG/HAZE STANDS OUT QUITE WELL IN THE THE LOW LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS BEING NOTICEABLE BY JUST STEPPING
OUTSIDE. THE EASTERN ZONES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM THE VOLCANIC EMISSIONS. STILL ANTICIPATE
THE RIDGE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT TRADE FLOW TO
RETURN TO THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FOR KAUAI
AND OAHU TODAY WHILE MOLOKAI MAUI PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD IN THE NARROW PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO FUEL SOME
INTERIOR UPSLOPE ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
HAS THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WILL KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED AND LIGHT.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING FRONT BRUSHES KAUAI.
GENERALLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...BUT THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...LIGHT LAND BREEZES AND CLEAR
SKIES IN THE MORNINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO COASTAL SEA BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL SPREAD TO ALL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO ALL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH VOG CLEARING MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 340 AM HST THU MAY 15 2008/
A SURFACE RIDGE IS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THE RULE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI. AN
APPROACHING FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS IT NEARS
KAUAI...WITH IT/S LEADING EDGE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE...NOW
ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED
STRONG ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO HOLD OFF LAND BREEZES ON KAUAI AND
OAHU...THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND A
FEW SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SOUTH SIDES OF THESE ISLANDS. HAZE IS
ASSUMED TO REMAIN OVER ALL ISLANDS.

THE WEAKENING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF KAUAI
THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS...AND MAINTAINING A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...OR AT LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH TONIGHT. MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALLOWING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER UPSLOPE AREAS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT NORTH OF KAUAI ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO MOVE NORTH TO NEAR KAUAI...AND PLACING ALL ISLANDS BACK
INTO A LAND/SEA BREEZE WIND REGIME...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD AND
SHOWER PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR KAUAI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO REBUILD
OVER THE BIG ISLAND...BUT MAINTAINING A LIGHT WIND PATTERN OVER THE
REMAINING ISLANDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT HAZE IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THINKING THAT
BUILDING EASTERLIES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL ADVECT THE PARTICULATES
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST FORECAST
CHARTS INDICATE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THEY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE VOG AWAY FROM MOST
ISLAND AREAS.

STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEREBY
CAPPING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE FRONT...AND DAYTIME HEATING OF
THE ISLANDS...WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERRUPT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN.

NORTHWEST SWELL IS BUILDING AT BUOY 51001...AND WILL BUILD
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TODAY...WITH PEAK HEIGHTS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SURF FORECAST HAS THE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DEJESUS
PREVIOUS...BIRCHARD

000
FXHW60 PHFO 151340
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 AM HST THU MAY 15 2008

&&

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING FRONT BRUSHES KAUAI.
GENERALLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...BUT THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...LIGHT LAND BREEZES AND CLEAR
SKIES IN THE MORNINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO COASTAL SEA BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL SPREAD TO ALL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO ALL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH VOG CLEARING MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THE RULE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM
KAUAI TO MAUI. AN APPROACHING FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING
AS IT NEARS KAUAI...WITH IT/S LEADING EDGE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE...NOW ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO HOLD OFF LAND BREEZES ON
KAUAI AND OAHU...THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...AND A FEW SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SOUTH SIDES OF THESE
ISLANDS. HAZE IS ASSUMED TO REMAIN OVER ALL ISLANDS.

THE WEAKENING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF KAUAI
THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS...AND MAINTAINING A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...OR AT LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH TONIGHT. MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALLOWING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER UPSLOPE AREAS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT NORTH OF KAUAI ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO MOVE NORTH TO NEAR KAUAI...AND PLACING ALL ISLANDS BACK
INTO A LAND/SEA BREEZE WIND REGIME...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD AND
SHOWER PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR KAUAI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO REBUILD
OVER THE BIG ISLAND...BUT MAINTAINING A LIGHT WIND PATTERN OVER THE
REMAINING ISLANDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT HAZE IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THINKING THAT
BUILDING EASTERLIES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL ADVECT THE PARTICULATES
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST FORECAST
CHARTS INDICATE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THEY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE VOG AWAY FROM MOST
ISLAND AREAS.

STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEREBY
CAPPING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE FRONT...AND DAYTIME HEATING OF
THE ISLANDS...WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERRUPT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST SWELL IS BUILDING AT BUOY 51001...AND WILL BUILD
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TODAY...WITH PEAK HEIGHTS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SURF FORECAST HAS THE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BIRCHARD