[top]
000
FXUS63 KGLD 050900
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
BECOME ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS THE TROUGH
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
WESTERN KANSAS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THE NAM12 INDICATES THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND 21Z. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD COME LATER TONIGHT
IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. PLAN TO GO
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER 06Z-12Z SAT. THE SOUTHERN ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MERGES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE THEN
MOVES INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE
FORCING AGAIN FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IN THE GRIDS.
NORTHEAST WIND WILL HELP CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY AND WILL
HELP KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S. BY SATURDAY 850
TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH SO THAT MAX READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
70S AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1138 PM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MADE THEIR WAY
INTO THE KGLD VICINITY. RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS THE
STRONGER STORMS MOVE OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...AFTER WHICH THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
[top]
000
FXUS63 KTOP 050859
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
359 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A LONG SERIES OF WAVES IN THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF
IS AFFECTING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF
700 MB TROF AXIS. RUC LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR
TERM...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FURTHER EAST THAN THE
PRECIPITATION DEPICTION FROM RUC. WARM ADVECTION MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN FORECAST BUT NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH RAPID
ADVANCEMENT EAST OF THIS RAIN AS LAST EVENINGS SOUNDINGS WERE VERY
DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO SATURATE AIRMASS. STILL...EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MESSY TO SAY THE LEAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
DEPICTED IN GFS/NAM/ECMWF. WITH PERSISTENT TROF ALOFT...EACH WEAK
WAVE HAS ENOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS
TIMING THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND HARDER EVEN IS TIMING
THE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW POP SOLUTION FOR ALL
PERIODS THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HARD AS I TRY I AM
UNABLE TO REDUCE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THESE POPS. THUS...PRETTY
MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE PAST SATURDAY. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED WATCHING AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE RESOLVED AND TIMING IS
BETTER FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON STRATUS AND MOIST
GROUND IN THE KFOE/KTOP...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FOG DEVELOPING
IN THESE SITES THROUGH 12Z. DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SFC SUPPORTS
SHALLOW FOG AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME AC AND CIRRUS
ARRIVING TOWARDS SUNRISE SHOULD SUPPORT A QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE
FOG. DRIER GROUND...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE
CLOUDS IN KMHK WAS THE REASON FOR KEEPING FOG OUT OF THE 06Z
TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGING TRENDS.
WILL GO WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AT KFOE/KTOP...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z WITH INCREASING AC CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE KMHK AREA...BUT
WITH VFR CIGS6-10KFT. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES BY 00Z...EXPECT
LINGERING AC SCT-BKN100 AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH 06Z/SAT.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
HARDING
[top]
000
FXUS63 KICT 050845
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PROBLEM: SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
TODAY:
SO FAR THE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER SE KS HAS BEEN PATCHY IN NATURE.
AS SUCH HAVE EASED UP ON AREAL DESCRIPTOR...ASSIGNING "AREAS OF DENSE
FOG" TO SE KS UNTIL 10 AM. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 AM. FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD SHRA/TSRA SPREADING E ACROSS MUCH OF
KICT COUNTRY. WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS S/SE INTO KS AS BROAD MID-UPR TROF
MOVES E/SE OVER NEBRASKA & KS. GREATEST LWR-DECK CONVERGENCE WILL TARGET
NW/WRN KS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 300-310K LAYER STRONGEST. WITH LWR
DECK FLOW ASSUMING E-NE/ COMPONENT MAXES ACROSS C KS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70F.
TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT:
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON LOCATION OF GREATEST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRENCE. GREATEST
POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT DUE S ACROSS SW/SC KS TONIGHT AS AFORE-MENTIONED
COLD FRONT SAGS TOWARD WRN RED RIVER & GRADUALLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN 300-315K LAYER N OF STALLING SFC FRONT SUPPORTS SUCH THINKING.
ASSIGNED HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO SC KS WITH POPS TAPERED CONSIDERABLY
FURTHER NE WITH ~30% ASSIGNED ALONG NRN & NE PERIPHERY. A 2ND WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SPRINTING E/SE ACROSS KS MAY PUSH THE FRONT A LITTLE
FURTHER S SAT MORNING AROUND WHICH TIME THE FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT N
TOWARD THE OK/KS BORDER SAT AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON BEHAVIOR OF FRONTAL
POSITIONING SAT & SAT NIGHT LACKING. AS SUCH HAVE BROADENED POP GRADIENT
SAT BY ASSIGNING 40-50% TO MOST OF CWFA WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ASSIGNED ACROSS SC & SE KS. WITH SUBTLE...SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
VACATING THE IMMEDIATE KS PREMISES TAPERED POPS TO A GENERIC 20-25% ALL
AREAS.
SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT:
TSRA CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS A PRONOUNCED MID-UPR SHORTWAVE SURGES SE
FROM MT & WY ACROSS SD & NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ENABLE A STRONGER COLD
FRONT TO SURGE SE INTO C KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO NEARLY 40% BOTH PERIODS ACROSS C KS WHERE CLOSER TO APPROACHING
FRONT. REST OF FORECAST KEPT ESSENTIALLY INTACT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 75 57 73 60 / 40 50 50 30
HUTCHINSON 71 54 73 58 / 40 50 50 20
NEWTON 73 55 72 59 / 40 50 50 20
ELDORADO 75 56 73 59 / 40 50 50 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 78 58 74 60 / 30 50 50 30
RUSSELL 67 52 71 56 / 70 30 40 20
GREAT BEND 68 53 72 57 / 60 40 40 20
SALINA 69 53 71 57 / 50 30 40 20
MCPHERSON 71 54 72 58 / 50 40 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 78 58 75 61 / 20 40 40 20
CHANUTE 77 56 73 60 / 20 30 40 20
IOLA 76 56 73 60 / 20 30 40 20
PARSONS-KPPF 77 57 74 60 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS63 KDDC 050741
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
241 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
PRECIP CHANCES AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE.
00Z UPPER AIR OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS, WITH WV LOOP INDICATING A EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
COMING DOWN THROUGH CO/WY THIS MORNING. SAID SHORTWAVE WAS HELPING
TO SET OFF A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN KS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALSO INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN CWA, WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. MAIN COLD
FRONT WAS STILL UP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEB/NORTHEASTERN CO AS OF
07Z. NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE
FRONT DOWN TOWARDS THE OK BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING BY AND THE FRONT COMING DOWN, THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SO
CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS WE HAD GOING. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
DOWN, MOST OF THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE PANHANDLES. THINK THAT OUR ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY NOT BE
SEVERE, ALTHOUGH THE FAR SOUTHWEST COULD SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE
NAM SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN, AND THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPS GET DOWN TO
AROUND 10 C IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWERED HIGHS THERE A FEW
MORE DEGREES, ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH COULD GET INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE
THE FRONT ARRIVES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WITH UPSLOPE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KS. WITH THE SFC FRONT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH, THE NAM AND GFS SET UP THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR
THE OK BORDER. 700MB DEFORMATION IS VERY GOOD, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS AND ANOTHER WEAK VORT
LOBE MOVING THROUGH, WILL BUMP UP POPS A TAD TO LIKELY IN THAT
AREA. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 50S DESPITE CLOUD COVER.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY, AND THE FRONT
SHOULD START LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH A BIT BY AFTERNOON. IT IS
QUESTIONABLE IF IT WILL GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OR NOT, BUT
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA.
THE VORT MAX MOVING BY SHOULD TAKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WITH IT, SO THERE WILL BE LESS RAIN COOLING. STILL, TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S, AND IF THERE IS MORE RAIN THAN
EXPECTED IT COULD BE EVEN COOLER. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AGAIN, SO
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
DAYS 3-7...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING COOL TEMPS INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE MEAN TROUGH. THE WAVES COULD BRING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING
SOME WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. THEN THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST IN
PUSHING ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND DELAYED. HAVE STAYED
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR MAINLY MFVR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO 00Z SATURDAY. AFTER 00Z MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH POSSIBLY IFR CIGS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 51 68 55 / 60 60 40 30
GCK 66 50 68 52 / 60 40 40 30
EHA 71 49 71 55 / 40 40 20 30
LBL 72 51 71 56 / 50 50 40 30
HYS 65 51 68 54 / 70 30 30 20
P28 75 56 71 61 / 60 60 60 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN26/06/06
000
FXUS63 KGLD 050544
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...HIGHEST EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER
AND FRONTOGENESIS...OMEGA AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE CO-LOCATED.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL WARMING ON FRIDAY AND
AS A RESULT I WILL LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 60S (NORTH TO SOUTH).
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAY NEED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AS ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THAT AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
700-300 MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY...DECREASING TOWARDS MORNING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM...MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE 850 THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO
AND KANSAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY...TIMING AND QUESTION REGARDING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROHIBIT INTRODUCING ANY POPS AT PRESENT
TIME. LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTRODUCED AS MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY MOVES EAST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ON THURSDAY THE LOW MOVES EAST AS A
COLD FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE DEGREE OF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
DDT
&&
.AVIATION...
1138 PM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MADE THEIR WAY
INTO THE KGLD VICINITY. RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS THE
STRONGER STORMS MOVE OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...AFTER WHICH THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 050458
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON STRATUS AND MOIST
GROUND IN THE KFOE/KTOP...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FOG DEVELOPING
IN THESE SITES THROUGH 12Z. DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SFC SUPPORTS
SHALLOW FOG AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME AC AND CIRRUS
ARRIVING TOWARDS SUNRISE SHOULD SUPPORT A QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE
FOG. DRIER GROUND...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE
CLOUDS IN KMHK WAS THE REASON FOR KEEPING FOG OUT OF THE 06Z
TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGING TRENDS.
WILL GO WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AT KFOE/KTOP...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z WITH INCREASING AC CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE KMHK AREA...BUT
WITH VFR CIGS6-10KFT. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES BY 00Z...EXPECT
LINGERING AC SCT-BKN100 AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH 06Z/SAT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE FOG AND PRECIPITATION
POSSIBILITIES.
UPPER CIRCULATION WITH WHAT WAS GUSTAV WAS ENTERING ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION NEARLY OUT OF MISSOURI. WET NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH
THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN. WET GROUND CONDITIONS...LITTLE
WIND...AND THE LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE SUNSHINE...KEEPING THE SURFACE AND NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE GUSTAV AFFECTED AIRMASS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION IN PLACE. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET HERE...BUT THE NEXT FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS WILL IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING THE AMOUNT AND
THICKNESS IT WOULD HAVE. WITH SUNSET STILL NEAR 01Z...MAY YET HAVE
ENOUGH INSOLATION AND MIXING TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT BAY. AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FOG AS TRENDS BECOME APPARENT.
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
FOR FRIDAY...THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING OVER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE
FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COINCIDENT.
THESE FEATURE BEGIN TO CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING BEST
COVERAGE FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
BOTH INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A BIT WITH A FASTER INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
65
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY. FORCING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING THEN DROP OFF AS
THE WAVE MOVES AWAY INTO IOWA. THE MODELS THEN ALL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE MCS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND MAINLY WILL AFFECT THE
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35.
THE EXTENDED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO THE LOW LEVEL JET KICK IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF 00Z AND 12Z RUNS AND THE 12Z GFS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND HAVE JUST MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK GOOD WITH
THIS SETUP WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL AS GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
NOW AS THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MAY BE SLOWER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY THEN A THE 60S AND 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
53
AVIATION...
STRATUS IS SLOWLY CLEARING...WITH MHK BREAKING OUT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO
RISE TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN IS FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS QUICKLY
GOING LIGHT THIS EVENING. WETTER GROUND AND LESS MIXING IN THE
TOP/FOE GIVE THESE LOCATIONS THE BEST FOG PROBABILITIES. HAVE
INCLUDED IFR VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE AT THIS TIME...BUT LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS AT MHK WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FELL RECENTLY. NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
MHK BY 18Z FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN ANY
PRECIPITATION.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
63
000
FXUS63 KICT 050448
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG FOR SE KS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS SE KS WITH TEMPS STARTING TO PLUMMET.
KCNU HAS DROPPED TO 6SM AND AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.
THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH SINCE LAST TAF ISSUANCE WITH IFR VIS
AND CIGS EXPECTED AT KCNU BY 09Z. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE DRY ENOUGH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
OUR NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE
ROCKIES...WILL START TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KCNU. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.
LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF SE KS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THEREFORE HAD TO UPDATE TO KEEP UP WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED SO ALSO
HAD TO TWEAK THESE. FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN SE KS
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL LINGERING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE FOG SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW
WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING DECREASING DEWPOINTS WITH HEIGHT.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL IN SE KS.
SHORT-LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SE
KS(KCNU) WILL HAVE DECENT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAINS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY WILL BE MISSING THE
SATURATED GROUNDS WHICH WILL BE KEY. FOR NOW WILL GET KCNU DOWN TO
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT
BEFORE GOING BELOW A MILE.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRI
AS OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RUN WITH SOME VCSH FOR KRSL AND KSLN AFTER 18Z ON FRI.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
TONIGHT:
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY EXITING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET
UP CAMP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS ADJACENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH THIS
EVENING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS SAW ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION TONIGHT FROM STRATUS BUILD DOWN EFFECTS
OR BACKBUILDING STRATUS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OUT OF
MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CREEP INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY:
WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND PLENTY OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 305-310K LAYER. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES IN THIS AREA WILL BE AROUND 500-1000J/KG WITH 1-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-45KTS WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE
APPROACH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WAVE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. WE HAVE KEPT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PICTURE FOR NOW...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE COOL FRONT
WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ANOTHER FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAY BRING A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT OF
RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY:
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN QUESTION DURING THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODELS ARE REALLY NOT KEYING ON ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY STILL MAY BE HUNG UP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TRY TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE FRONT TO SHOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND ALLOW FOR MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
COX
AVIATION...18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS PM AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVE
IN SERN KS (AFFECTING CNU). THE SLOWER NAM-WRF CLEARING LOOKS
BETTER THAN THE FASTER GFS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SHOW
SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING ANTICYCLONIC
THIS EVE WHICH MAY CLEAR OUT CNU. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER SERN KS/NWRN MO TOWARD 12Z FRI WITH THE NAM-WRF AND
GFS BOTH SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING (NAM MORESO).
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A SHALLOW LAYER OF IFR CIGS AND/OR
FOG AT CNU FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 12Z FRI. OTHERWISE...AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING MAY PRODUCE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KS FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 75 57 73 / 0 40 60 40
HUTCHINSON 51 71 54 72 / 0 60 60 40
NEWTON 53 73 55 72 / 0 40 50 40
ELDORADO 53 75 56 72 / 0 30 40 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 78 58 74 / 0 20 50 50
RUSSELL 51 67 52 71 / 20 60 30 20
GREAT BEND 52 68 54 72 / 20 60 50 30
SALINA 52 69 54 72 / 0 60 20 30
MCPHERSON 52 70 53 72 / 0 60 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 50 78 58 75 / 0 10 20 50
CHANUTE 50 77 56 73 / 0 10 20 40
IOLA 50 76 56 72 / 0 20 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 50 77 57 73 / 0 10 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 050227
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
926 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.
LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF SE KS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THEREFORE HAD TO UPDATE TO KEEP UP WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED SO ALSO
HAD TO TWEAK THESE. FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN SE KS
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL LINGERING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE FOG SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW
WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING DECREASING DEWPOINTS WITH HEIGHT.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL IN SE KS.
SHORT-LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SE
KS(KCNU) WILL HAVE DECENT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAINS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY WILL BE MISSING THE
SATURATED GROUNDS WHICH WILL BE KEY. FOR NOW WILL GET KCNU DOWN TO
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT
BEFORE GOING BELOW A MILE.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRI
AS OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RUN WITH SOME VCSH FOR KRSL AND KSLN AFTER 18Z ON FRI.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
TONIGHT:
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY EXITING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET
UP CAMP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS ADJACENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH THIS
EVENING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS SAW ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION TONIGHT FROM STRATUS BUILD DOWN EFFECTS
OR BACKBUILDING STRATUS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OUT OF
MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CREEP INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY:
WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND PLENTY OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 305-310K LAYER. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES IN THIS AREA WILL BE AROUND 500-1000J/KG WITH 1-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-45KTS WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE
APPROACH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WAVE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. WE HAVE KEPT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PICTURE FOR NOW...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE COOL FRONT
WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ANOTHER FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAY BRING A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT OF
RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY:
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN QUESTION DURING THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODELS ARE REALLY NOT KEYING ON ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY STILL MAY BE HUNG UP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TRY TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE FRONT TO SHOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND ALLOW FOR MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
COX
AVIATION...18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS PM AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVE
IN SERN KS (AFFECTING CNU). THE SLOWER NAM-WRF CLEARING LOOKS
BETTER THAN THE FASTER GFS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SHOW
SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING ANTICYCLONIC
THIS EVE WHICH MAY CLEAR OUT CNU. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER SERN KS/NWRN MO TOWARD 12Z FRI WITH THE NAM-WRF AND
GFS BOTH SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING (NAM MORESO).
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A SHALLOW LAYER OF IFR CIGS AND/OR
FOG AT CNU FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 12Z FRI. OTHERWISE...AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING MAY PRODUCE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KS FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 75 57 73 / 0 40 60 40
HUTCHINSON 51 71 54 72 / 0 60 60 40
NEWTON 53 73 55 72 / 0 40 50 40
ELDORADO 53 75 56 72 / 0 30 40 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 78 58 74 / 0 20 50 50
RUSSELL 51 67 52 71 / 20 60 30 20
GREAT BEND 52 68 54 72 / 20 60 50 30
SALINA 52 69 54 72 / 0 60 20 30
MCPHERSON 52 70 53 72 / 0 60 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 50 78 58 75 / 0 10 20 50
CHANUTE 50 77 56 73 / 0 10 20 40
IOLA 50 76 56 72 / 0 20 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 50 77 57 73 / 0 10 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 050021
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS FINALLY CLEARED ALL OF THE TAF SITES...AND SHOULD
SEE SKC THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW/SCT AC TOWARDS SUNRISE.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH NEXT 12 HOURS IS FOG POTENTIAL. GROUND IN THE
KTOP/KFOE SITES IS MORE MOIST AND WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
THAN KMHK. SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AND INVERSION LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR NOT FAR OFF THE SFC...SO
EXPECT GROUND FOG TO BE THE RULE. AS WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT...HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT BOTH SITES AFT 08Z THEN
TRENDING DOWN TO IFR (1 MILE) FROM 10-13Z...THEN VFR AGAIN BY 14Z
WITH INCREASING AC CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE AREA...BUT WITH VFR CIGS6-10KFT. ADDED
BRIEF MVFR FOG IN KMHK (11-13Z) OTHERWISE SIMILAR VFR CIGS AND
VCSH AT 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE FOG AND PRECIPITATION
POSSIBILITIES.
UPPER CIRCULATION WITH WHAT WAS GUSTAV WAS ENTERING ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION NEARLY OUT OF MISSOURI. WET NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH
THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN. WET GROUND CONDITIONS...LITTLE
WIND...AND THE LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE SUNSHINE...KEEPING THE SURFACE AND NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE GUSTAV AFFECTED AIRMASS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION IN PLACE. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET HERE...BUT THE NEXT FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS WILL IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING THE AMOUNT AND
THICKNESS IT WOULD HAVE. WITH SUNSET STILL NEAR 01Z...MAY YET HAVE
ENOUGH INSOLATION AND MIXING TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT BAY. AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FOG AS TRENDS BECOME APPARENT.
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
FOR FRIDAY...THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING OVER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE
FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COINCIDENT.
THESE FEATURE BEGIN TO CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING BEST
COVERAGE FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
BOTH INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A BIT WITH A FASTER INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
65
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY. FORCING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING THEN DROP OFF AS
THE WAVE MOVES AWAY INTO IOWA. THE MODELS THEN ALL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE MCS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND MAINLY WILL AFFECT THE
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35.
THE EXTENDED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO THE LOW LEVEL JET KICK IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF 00Z AND 12Z RUNS AND THE 12Z GFS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND HAVE JUST MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK GOOD WITH
THIS SETUP WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL AS GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
NOW AS THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MAY BE SLOWER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY THEN A THE 60S AND 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
53
AVIATION...
STRATUS IS SLOWLY CLEARING...WITH MHK BREAKING OUT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO
RISE TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN IS FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS QUICKLY
GOING LIGHT THIS EVENING. WETTER GROUND AND LESS MIXING IN THE
TOP/FOE GIVE THESE LOCATIONS THE BEST FOG PROBABILITIES. HAVE
INCLUDED IFR VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE AT THIS TIME...BUT LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS AT MHK WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FELL RECENTLY. NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
MHK BY 18Z FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN ANY
PRECIPITATION.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
63
000
FXUS63 KICT 042347
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL IN SE KS.
SHORT-LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SE
KS(KCNU) WILL HAVE DECENT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAINS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY WILL BE MISSING THE
SATURATED GROUNDS WHICH WILL BE KEY. FOR NOW WILL GET KCNU DOWN TO
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT
BEFORE GOING BELOW A MILE.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRI
AS OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RUN WITH SOME VCSH FOR KRSL AND KSLN AFTER 18Z ON FRI.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
TONIGHT:
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY EXITING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET
UP CAMP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS ADJACENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH THIS
EVENING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS SAW ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION TONIGHT FROM STRATUS BUILD DOWN EFFECTS
OR BACKBUILDING STRATUS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OUT OF
MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CREEP INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY:
WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND PLENTY OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 305-310K LAYER. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES IN THIS AREA WILL BE AROUND 500-1000J/KG WITH 1-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-45KTS WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE
APPROACH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WAVE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. WE HAVE KEPT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PICTURE FOR NOW...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE COOL FRONT
WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ANOTHER FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAY BRING A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT OF
RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY:
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN QUESTION DURING THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODELS ARE REALLY NOT KEYING ON ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY STILL MAY BE HUNG UP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TRY TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE FRONT TO SHOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND ALLOW FOR MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
COX
AVIATION...18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS PM AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVE
IN SERN KS (AFFECTING CNU). THE SLOWER NAM-WRF CLEARING LOOKS
BETTER THAN THE FASTER GFS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SHOW
SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING ANTICYCLONIC
THIS EVE WHICH MAY CLEAR OUT CNU. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER SERN KS/NWRN MO TOWARD 12Z FRI WITH THE NAM-WRF AND
GFS BOTH SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING (NAM MORESO).
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A SHALLOW LAYER OF IFR CIGS AND/OR
FOG AT CNU FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 12Z FRI. OTHERWISE...AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING MAY PRODUCE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KS FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 75 57 73 / 0 40 60 40
HUTCHINSON 51 71 54 72 / 0 60 60 40
NEWTON 53 73 55 72 / 0 40 50 40
ELDORADO 53 75 56 72 / 0 30 40 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 78 58 74 / 0 20 50 50
RUSSELL 51 67 52 71 / 20 60 30 20
GREAT BEND 52 68 54 72 / 20 60 50 30
SALINA 52 69 54 72 / 0 60 20 30
MCPHERSON 52 70 53 72 / 0 60 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 50 78 58 75 / 0 10 20 50
CHANUTE 50 77 56 73 / 0 10 20 40
IOLA 50 76 56 72 / 0 20 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 50 77 57 73 / 0 10 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 042346
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...HIGHEST EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER
AND FRONTOGENESIS...OMEGA AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE CO-LOCATED.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL WARMING ON FRIDAY AND
AS A RESULT I WILL LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 60S (NORTH TO SOUTH).
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAY NEED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AS ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THAT AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
700-300 MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY...DECREASING TOWARDS MORNING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM...MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE 850 THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO
AND KANSAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY...TIMING AND QUESTION REGARDING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROHIBIT INTRODUCING ANY POPS AT PRESENT
TIME. LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTRODUCED AS MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY MOVES EAST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ON THURSDAY THE LOW MOVES EAST AS A
COLD FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE DEGREE OF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
DDT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CIGS/VIS AND VRB WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE MFVR CIGS/VIS DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AT GLD
AND BY 12Z AT MCK. HELD OFF IN GOING TO VFR CIGS BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE REDUCTION IN VIS WILL BE A
FUNCTION OF RAINFALL RATES WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY TO
MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW. NOTE THE WIND SHIFT DENOTED IN THE TAFS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND 12Z SETING UP NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
05
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KDDC 042052
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOWED THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMAINS OF
GUSTAV THAT WERE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS HAD MOVED ONSHORE IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ISENTROPIC
LIFT BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE UPPER FLOW.
RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. THINK THAT THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...AND COULD EVEN FALL OFF SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT. I ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY. THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS
HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. MOS GUIDANCE FROM
BOTH MODELS SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM COMPARATIVELY. OF COURSE...ANY
CLEARING WILL MAKE FORECAST TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC.
DAYS 3-7...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND CONFIDENCE
IN ANY DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WITH NEGATIVE OLR ANOMALIES EVIDENT FROM INDIA
INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN CENTERED 10-15 DEGREES
NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TROPICAL FORCING IN
RECENT DAYS. THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW CONTINUES TO ORBIT BETWEEN PHASE
4-5 AND 1-2 IN THE GWO PHASE SPACE AND CURRENTLY IS CENTERED IN IN
PHASE 1. THE CIRCULATION REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA LIKELY WILL
PERSIST WITH RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID SEPTEMBER WITH A
RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW THEREAFTER. THE DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL
MODELS REPRESENT THIS EVOLUTION REASONABLY WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS. THE ECMWF
PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND LARGELY WAS USED
FOR GRID MODIFICATIONS.
RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH LARGE
UPPER TROF ADVERTISED BY MODELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
THIS I TRANSLATE INTO AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST WILL BE FOLLOWING ANY ACTIVITY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET/315 K LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP MAY
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING EARLY SUNDAY...PROBABLY
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...SOMEWHAT OF
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND WRF/NAM SOLUTIONS. THE NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE POLAR STREAM WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION AND MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL MONDAY AS PRESSURES RISE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CARRYING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. H8 TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 20C TO 25C RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RISING TO NEAR 90. THE
NEXT SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH COOLING WILL FOLLOW
THE THURSDAY FRONT SINCE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06 UTC
FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS/-TSRA DURING
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09 UTC. WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850
FRONT WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT AIDING IN STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN IFR CATEGORY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 69 51 77 / 40 50 50 20
GCK 55 67 50 76 / 40 50 40 10
EHA 58 71 50 79 / 40 40 30 10
LBL 56 73 51 78 / 30 50 50 20
HYS 52 68 51 73 / 30 60 30 20
P28 56 75 56 76 / 20 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN02/33/01
000
FXUS63 KTOP 042033
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE FOG AND PRECIPITATION
POSSIBILITIES.
UPPER CIRCULATION WITH WHAT WAS GUSTAV WAS ENTERING ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION NEARLY OUT OF MISSOURI. WET NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH
THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN. WET GROUND CONDITIONS...LITTLE
WIND...AND THE LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE SUNSHINE...KEEPING THE SURFACE AND NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE GUSTAV AFFECTED AIRMASS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION IN PLACE. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET HERE...BUT THE NEXT FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS WILL IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING THE AMOUNT AND
THICKNESS IT WOULD HAVE. WITH SUNSET STILL NEAR 01Z...MAY YET HAVE
ENOUGH INSOLATION AND MIXING TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT BAY. AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FOG AS TRENDS BECOME APPARENT.
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
FOR FRIDAY...THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING OVER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE
FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COINCIDENT.
THESE FEATURE BEGIN TO CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING BEST
COVERAGE FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
BOTH INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A BIT WITH A FASTER INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
65
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY. FORCING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING THEN DROP OFF AS
THE WAVE MOVES AWAY INTO IOWA. THE MODELS THEN ALL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE MCS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND MAINLY WILL AFFECT THE
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35.
THE EXTENDED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO THE LOW LEVEL JET KICK IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF 00Z AND 12Z RUNS AND THE 12Z GFS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND HAVE JUST MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK GOOD WITH
THIS SETUP WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL AS GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
NOW AS THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MAY BE SLOWER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY THEN A THE 60S AND 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
53
&&
.AVIATION...
STRATUS IS SLOWLY CLEARING...WITH MHK BREAKING OUT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO
RISE TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN IS FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS QUICKLY
GOING LIGHT THIS EVENING. WETTER GROUND AND LESS MIXING IN THE
TOP/FOE GIVE THESE LOCATIONS THE BEST FOG PROBABILITIES. HAVE
INCLUDED IFR VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE AT THIS TIME...BUT LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS AT MHK WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FELL RECENTLY. NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
MHK BY 18Z FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN ANY
PRECIPITATION.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 042014
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
TONIGHT:
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY EXITING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET
UP CAMP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS ADJACENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH THIS
EVENING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS SAW ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION TONIGHT FROM STRATUS BUILD DOWN EFFECTS
OR BACKBUILDING STRATUS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OUT OF
MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CREEP INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY:
WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND PLENTY OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 305-310K LAYER. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES IN THIS AREA WILL BE AROUND 500-1000J/KG WITH 1-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-45KTS WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE
APPROACH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WAVE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. WE HAVE KEPT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PICTURE FOR NOW...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE COOL FRONT
WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ANOTHER FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAY BRING A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT OF
RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY:
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN QUESTION DURING THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODELS ARE REALLY NOT KEYING ON ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY STILL MAY BE HUNG UP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TRY TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE FRONT TO SHOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND ALLOW FOR MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
COX
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS PM AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVE
IN SERN KS (AFFECTING CNU). THE SLOWER NAM-WRF CLEARING LOOKS
BETTER THAN THE FASTER GFS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SHOW
SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING ANTICYCLONIC
THIS EVE WHICH MAY CLEAR OUT CNU. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER SERN KS/NWRN MO TOWARD 12Z FRI WITH THE NAM-WRF AND
GFS BOTH SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING (NAM MORESO).
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A SHALLOW LAYER OF IFR CIGS AND/OR
FOG AT CNU FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 12Z FRI. OTHERWISE...AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING MAY PRODUCE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KS FRIDAY.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 75 57 73 / 0 40 60 40
HUTCHINSON 51 71 54 72 / 0 60 60 40
NEWTON 53 73 55 72 / 0 40 50 40
ELDORADO 53 75 56 72 / 0 30 40 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 78 58 74 / 0 20 50 50
RUSSELL 51 67 52 71 / 20 60 30 20
GREAT BEND 52 68 54 72 / 20 60 50 30
SALINA 52 69 54 72 / 0 60 20 30
MCPHERSON 52 70 53 72 / 0 60 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 50 78 58 75 / 0 10 20 50
CHANUTE 50 77 56 73 / 0 10 20 40
IOLA 50 76 56 72 / 0 20 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 50 77 57 73 / 0 10 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 041945
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...HIGHEST EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER
AND FRONTOGENESIS...OMEGA AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE CO-LOCATED.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL WARMING ON FRIDAY AND
AS A RESULT I WILL LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 60S (NORTH TO SOUTH).
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAY NEED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AS ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THAT AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
700-300 MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY...DECREASING TOWARDS MORNING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM...MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE 850 THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO
AND KANSAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY...TIMING AND QUESTION REGARDING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROHIBIT INTRODUCING ANY POPS AT PRESENT
TIME. LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTRODUCED AS MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY MOVES EAST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ON THURSDAY THE LOW MOVES EAST AS A
COLD FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE DEGREE OF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
DDT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BENIGN AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
THEN INCOMING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN
CAUSE CONDITIONS TO WORSEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SINCE IT IS IN THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF...NOT SURE ENOUGH YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES
AT BOTH SITES SO KEPT THEM JUST ABOVE MVFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WOULD EXPECT THE VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWERED IN UPCOMING
TAF ISSUANCES. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...AND WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY 12Z.
BULLER
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KGLD 041750
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...
1141 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
JUST COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. LITTLE
TO NO CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME...AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO REDUCED SKY COVER AND TWEEKED
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
BULLER
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
REGION WITH ANOTHER FRONT PROGGED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND POPS.
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT BY TONIGHT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH
UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE ACTIVITY
SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY INDEXES INDICATE THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH STABILITY FOR DOMINANT WEATHER TO BE SHOWERS RATHER
THAN THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY AND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20 AND BUT FALL 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
THE COOLDOWN IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO 20
ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 70S TODAY AND
THEN FALL TO THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1141 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BENIGN AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
THEN INCOMING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN
CAUSE CONDITIONS TO WORSEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SINCE IT IS IN THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF...NOT SURE ENOUGH YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES
AT BOTH SITES SO KEPT THEM JUST ABOVE MVFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WOULD EXPECT THE VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWERED IN UPCOMING
TAF ISSUANCES. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...AND WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY 12Z.
BULLER
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 041748
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS PM AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVE
IN SERN KS (AFFECTING CNU). THE SLOWER NAM-WRF CLEARING LOOKS
BETTER THAN THE FASTER GFS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SHOW
SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING ANTICYCLONIC
THIS EVE WHICH MAY CLEAR OUT CNU. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER SERN KS/NWRN MO TOWARD 12Z FRI WITH THE NAM-WRF AND
GFS BOTH SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING (NAM MORESO).
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A SHALLOW LAYER OF IFR CIGS AND/OR
FOG AT CNU FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 12Z FRI. OTHERWISE...AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING MAY PRODUCE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KS FRIDAY.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER CNU TERMINAL COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
JAKUB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND TEMPERATURE
ROLLER-COASTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MID-AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE DEVELOPING AND RATHER
EXPANSIVE LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS CANADA.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP
KICK OUT THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE/END
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A MORE ENERGETIC
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY
PUSHING ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS. EXPECT AN AREA
OF MAINLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY LEADING TO CONTINUED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...SUSPECT THE MAV MOS IS
SHOWING A WARM/CLIMO BIAS...AND WILL UNDERCUT THESE...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MORE ENERGETIC TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHER ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WARMER AIR LOOKS TO ADVECT NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH MAXS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER PUSH AGAIN ON MONDAY...AND MAY BE
MORE SO THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF...AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DARMOFAL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 77 54 75 57 / 10 10 30 40
HUTCHINSON 77 51 73 54 / 10 10 40 40
NEWTON 76 53 74 55 / 10 10 40 40
ELDORADO 76 53 76 56 / 10 10 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 78 55 78 58 / 10 10 20 30
RUSSELL 78 51 68 52 / 0 20 50 30
GREAT BEND 78 52 70 54 / 0 20 50 40
SALINA 78 52 71 54 / 10 10 50 20
MCPHERSON 77 52 72 53 / 10 10 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 73 54 78 58 / 30 0 20 20
CHANUTE 72 53 77 56 / 30 0 20 20
IOLA 71 53 76 56 / 30 0 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 72 54 77 57 / 30 0 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 041742
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1242 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 18 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRATUS IS SLOWLY CLEARING...WITH MHK BREAKING OUT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO
RISE TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN IS FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS QUICKLY
GOING LIGHT THIS EVENING. WETTER GROUND AND LESS MIXING IN THE
TOP/FOE GIVE THESE LOCATIONS THE BEST FOG PROBABILITIES. HAVE
INCLUDED IFR VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE AT THIS TIME...BUT LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS AT MHK WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FELL RECENTLY. NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
MHK BY 18Z FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN ANY
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT RAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA AS OLD
TROPICAL SYSTEM IS CAUGHT IN FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SLOWLY ERODING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
THESE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT MIX US VERY WELL...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS EVEN AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT...HAVE CONSIDERED FOG FORMATION AS THE NIGHTS ARE
GETTING LONGER AND GROUND MAY STILL BE WET IN EASTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS ENTERING THE STATE FROM WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
SYSTEM MAY KEEP FOG TO JUST PATCHY AT BEST. DECIDED AGAINST
PUTTING SPECIFIC MENTION IN FORECAST AS TODAY`S MIXING AND DRYING
WILL ALSO PLAY A PART AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO JUDGE
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD TROF. BOTH NAM AND GFS AGREE RELATIVELY WELL ON
COVERAGE...BUT AMOUNTS ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH GFS PRODUCING
ALMOST TWICE AS MUCH QPF AS NAM. ONLY REAL ISSUE I FACED WAS
DURATION OR PRECIPITATION. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES NOTED
EVERY 12 TO 18 HOURS...IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ACTUALLY TIME
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. WASN`T TOO KEEN ON A BROADBRUSH STRATEGY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW
AM UNABLE TO DEFINE WET VS. DRY PERIODS WITH ANY ACCURACY. DON`T
REALLY THINK WE`LL HAVE CONTINUOUS PRECIP FOR ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT
WILL LET INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BE RESOLVED BEFORE GETTING MORE SPECIFIC.
HARDING
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
65
000
FXUS63 KTOP 041214
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
714 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTAV REMNANTS WERE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR...MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MO. THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SLIDING EAST INTO MO...WHERE THE LIGHT STEADY
RAIN WAS LOCATED. MOIST LOW-LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
GUSTAV WAS CAUSING LOW STRATUS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
KTOP AND KFOE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. KMHK WILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
KMHK TAF SITE BY 18Z...AND ACROSS THE KTOP AND KFOE TAF SITES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
CAUSE GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. THE
GROUND HAS MORE MOISTURE AT KTOP AND KFOE...THUS VISBYS MAY DROP
TO 1 TO 3 SM...THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KTOP AFTER 10Z.
KMHK RECEIVED LESS RAINFALL...THEREFORE THE PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5 SM. I DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE
TAFS SINCE IT WAS AT THE END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND
WILL WEAKEN UNDER 5 KTS AFTER 00Z FRI AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT RAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA AS OLD
TROPICAL SYSTEM IS CAUGHT IN FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SLOWLY ERODING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
THESE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT MIX US VERY WELL...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS EVEN AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT...HAVE CONSIDERED FOG FORMATION AS THE NIGHTS ARE
GETTING LONGER AND GROUND MAY STILL BE WET IN EASTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS ENTERING THE STATE FROM WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
SYSTEM MAY KEEP FOG TO JUST PATCHY AT BEST. DECIDED AGAINST
PUTTING SPECIFIC MENTION IN FORECAST AS TODAY`S MIXING AND DRYING
WILL ALSO PLAY A PART AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO JUDGE
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD TROF. BOTH NAM AND GFS AGREE RELATIVELY WELL ON
COVERAGE...BUT AMOUNTS ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH GFS PRODUCING
ALMOST TWICE AS MUCH QPF AS NAM. ONLY REAL ISSUE I FACED WAS
DURATION OR PRECIPITATION. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES NOTED
EVERY 12 TO 18 HOURS...IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ACTUALLY TIME
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. WASN`T TOO KEEN ON A BROADBRUSH STRATEGY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW
AM UNABLE TO DEFINE WET VS. DRY PERIODS WITH ANY ACCURACY. DON`T
REALLY THINK WE`LL HAVE CONTINUOUS PRECIP FOR ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT
WILL LET INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BE RESOLVED BEFORE GETTING MORE SPECIFIC.
HARDING
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KGLD 041148
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
REGION WITH ANOTHER FRONT PROGGED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND POPS.
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT BY TONIGHT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH
UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE ACTIVITY
SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY INDEXES INDICATE THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH STABILITY FOR DOMINANT WEATHER TO BE SHOWERS RATHER
THAN THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY AND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20 AND BUT FALL 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
THE COOLDOWN IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO 20
ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 70S TODAY AND
THEN FALL TO THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
534 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION BY 00Z...THEN BKN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 09Z. INCLUDED LIGHT
RAIN FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AFTER 09Z. EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AND THE POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE NECESSARY AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES. BORDERLINE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z...WHICH WILL ALSO NEED TO BE FINE
TUNED WITH THE NEXT FEW TAF ISSUANCES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE EXCEPTION
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z
AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AFTER 09Z.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 041128
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
628 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER CNU TERMINAL COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
JAKUB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND TEMPERATURE
ROLLER-COASTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MID-AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE DEVELOPING AND RATHER
EXPANSIVE LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS CANADA.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP
KICK OUT THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE/END
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A MORE ENERGETIC
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY
PUSHING ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS. EXPECT AN AREA
OF MAINLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY LEADING TO CONTINUED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...SUSPECT THE MAV MOS IS
SHOWING A WARM/CLIMO BIAS...AND WILL UNDERCUT THESE...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MORE ENERGETIC TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHER ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WARMER AIR LOOKS TO ADVECT NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH MAXS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER PUSH AGAIN ON MONDAY...AND MAY BE
MORE SO THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF...AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DARMOFAL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 77 54 75 57 / 10 10 30 40
HUTCHINSON 77 51 73 54 / 10 10 40 40
NEWTON 76 53 74 55 / 10 10 40 40
ELDORADO 76 53 76 56 / 10 10 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 78 55 78 58 / 10 10 20 30
RUSSELL 78 51 68 52 / 0 20 50 30
GREAT BEND 78 52 70 54 / 0 20 50 40
SALINA 78 52 71 54 / 10 10 50 20
MCPHERSON 77 52 72 53 / 10 10 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 75 54 78 58 / 30 0 20 20
CHANUTE 74 53 77 56 / 30 0 20 20
IOLA 74 53 76 56 / 30 0 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 74 54 77 57 / 30 0 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 040900
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
REGION WITH ANOTHER FRONT PROGGED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND POPS.
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT BY TONIGHT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH
UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE ACTIVITY
SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY INDEXES INDICATE THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH STABILITY FOR DOMINANT WEATHER TO BE SHOWERS RATHER
THAN THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY AND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20 AND BUT FALL 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
THE COOLDOWN IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO 20
ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 70S TODAY AND
THEN FALL TO THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1126 PM MDT WED SEP 3 2008
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CERTAINTY OF TAF SITES BEING
DIRECTLY IMPACTED. NEXT FEW TAF ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO LOOK AT
PRECIPITATION TIMING CLOSER AND POSSIBLY INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
PRECIP LATER...AFTER 06Z OR 12Z TOMORROW.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KTOP 040853
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT RAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA AS OLD
TROPICAL SYSTEM IS CAUGHT IN FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SLOWLY ERODING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
THESE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT MIX US VERY WELL...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS EVEN AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT...HAVE CONSIDERED FOG FORMATION AS THE NIGHTS ARE
GETTING LONGER AND GROUND MAY STILL BE WET IN EASTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS ENTERING THE STATE FROM WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
SYSTEM MAY KEEP FOG TO JUST PATCHY AT BEST. DECIDED AGAINST
PUTTING SPECIFIC MENTION IN FORECAST AS TODAY`S MIXING AND DRYING
WILL ALSO PLAY A PART AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO JUDGE
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD TROF. BOTH NAM AND GFS AGREE RELATIVELY WELL ON
COVERAGE...BUT AMOUNTS ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH GFS PRODUCING
ALMOST TWICE AS MUCH QPF AS NAM. ONLY REAL ISSUE I FACED WAS
DURATION OR PRECIPITATION. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES NOTED
EVERY 12 TO 18 HOURS...IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ACTUALLY TIME
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. WASN`T TOO KEEN ON A BROADBRUSH STRATEGY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW
AM UNABLE TO DEFINE WET VS. DRY PERIODS WITH ANY ACCURACY. DON`T
REALLY THINK WE`LL HAVE CONTINUOUS PRECIP FOR ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT
WILL LET INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BE RESOLVED BEFORE GETTING MORE SPECIFIC.
&&
.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV OVER NORTHERN AR CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH
TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI. GFS CONTINUES TO HANDLE PLACEMENT OF LOW
AND PRECIP BETTER THAN THE NAM. COMBINATION OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KS IS KEEPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/-RA OVER THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH INTENSITIES REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AS FINAL SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
700-1000 FOOT LAYER PUSHES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS 700-900 IN THE FOE/TOP SITES UNTIL
AROUND 11-12Z WITH 1200-2500 FT CIGS AT KMHK AS LOWER IFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHY OF REACHING WESTWARD TO THIS SITE. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT FOG WITH THE IFR CIGS AT KFOE/TOP AS WELL BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP IT ABOVE 5SM FOR NOW. AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
ADVANCES EASTWARD...EXPECT CIGS TO BE LIFTING BACK TO 1000-1500
FEET AFTER 12Z AT KFOE/KTOP...THEN VFR STRATACU DECK BY AROUND 19Z
WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR BY 00Z.
KMHK SITE SHOULD SEE VFR DECK AGAIN BY 13Z THEN SCATTERING BY 18Z.
TAF SITES WILL BE WITHIN WEAK SFC RIDGE 00Z THROUGH 06Z BUT WILL
NOT MENTION ANY FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS 8-12KTS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 00Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
HARDING/GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KICT 040846
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
346 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND TEMPERATURE
ROLLER-COASTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MID-AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE DEVELOPING AND RATHER
EXPANSIVE LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS CANADA.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP
KICK OUT THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE/END
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A MORE ENERGETIC
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY
PUSHING ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS. EXPECT AN AREA
OF MAINLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY LEADING TO CONTINUED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...SUSPECT THE MAV MOS IS
SHOWING A WARM/CLIMO BIAS...AND WILL UNDERCUT THESE...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MORE ENERGETIC TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHER ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WARMER AIR LOOKS TO ADVECT NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH MAXS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER PUSH AGAIN ON MONDAY...AND MAY BE
MORE SO THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF...AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AND THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
AT KCNU ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE TREND AT THE REMAINING SITES
HAS BEEN FOR CIGS TO LOWER GRADUALLY AND AM EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE. THEREFORE BROUGHT IFR CIGS IN AT 08Z FOR KICT AND KHUT.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU AS
GUSTAV LIFTS OUT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING CLOUD TO CLEAR OUT AT KICT
AROUND 21Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 77 54 75 57 / 10 10 30 40
HUTCHINSON 77 51 73 54 / 10 10 40 40
NEWTON 76 53 74 55 / 10 10 40 40
ELDORADO 76 53 76 56 / 10 10 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 78 55 78 58 / 10 10 20 30
RUSSELL 78 51 68 52 / 0 20 50 30
GREAT BEND 78 52 70 54 / 0 20 50 40
SALINA 78 52 71 54 / 10 10 50 20
MCPHERSON 77 52 72 53 / 10 10 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 75 54 78 58 / 30 0 20 20
CHANUTE 74 53 77 56 / 30 0 20 20
IOLA 74 53 76 56 / 30 0 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 74 54 77 57 / 30 0 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 040755
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS OF
00Z THURS. SFC OBS SHOW THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV AND
THE BEST MOISTURE OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME STRATUS IN THE EAST AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WEST ARE SEEN ON THE 11-3.9 MICRON SAT
LOOP, WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS THIS MORNING FROM FALLING ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT NICELY BY MID-MORNING, AND WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING OVER THE AREA, MOST OF TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET.
850MB TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S C, AND WITH
GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
TONIGHT, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY, WHILE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
FLOW MOVES THROUGH CO AND WY. THINK THAT THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD
HELP FIRE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, AND GOING POPS SEEM TO REFLECT THIS WELL. IN ADDITION,
MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY, AND THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE MOST OF THE DAY. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WHAT WE HAD
GOING, MAINLY BUMPING THEM UP A TAD IN THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST
UVV AND 700MB FRONTOGENESIS SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS AROUND, ALONG WITH THE ACTUAL COLDER AIR
MOVING IN, HIGHS WILL NOT GET VERY FAR ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THUS, LOWERED TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH INTO
THE UPPER 60S WHILE KEEPING 70S NEAR THE OK BORDER. IF WE ARE
TRULY SOCKED IN WITH THE COLD AIR AND CLOUDS IT COULD BE EVEN
COOLER LIKE WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TO REFINE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL SLIDING
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING A DECENT 700MB DEFORMATION
ZONE NEAR THE OK BORDER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THUS, WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND TAPERING
OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, THINK
THAT WE SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH LINGERING CLOUDS, SO TWEAKED LOWS DOWN A BIT.
DAYS 3-7...
WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST TO EAST AND THEN TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THEN FOR SUNDAY A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS BACK SIDE OF PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT HAVE UPPED TEMPS
IN THE SOUTH CWA INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND ADDED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THUNDER CHANCES IN NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING SOME QPF. THEN AS SHORTWAVE
AND TROUGH MOVE EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON
MONDAY WITH COOL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS HEIGHTS BECOME MORE ZONAL
ON TUESDAY A LEE TROUGH FORMS WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN THIS MORNING FORCING ANY
STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE LATE TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO
12Z FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 56 69 51 / 0 40 50 50
GCK 79 55 67 50 / 0 40 50 40
EHA 80 58 71 50 / 0 40 40 30
LBL 79 56 73 51 / 0 30 50 50
HYS 76 52 68 51 / 0 30 60 30
P28 81 56 75 56 / 0 20 40 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN26/06/06
000
FXUS63 KGLD 040556
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1156 PM MDT WED SEP 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
111 PM MDT WED SEP 3 2008
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV IS PROGGED TO INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT
INTERACTS THE WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SSW ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL SHUNT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE
WELL EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA ON THURSDAY
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST. A MEAN LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS LENDING SUPPORT TO DRY/SEASONABLY COOL DAY WHICH WAS DEPICTED
WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND EMERGE ONTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z-21Z ON FRIDAY. 305K WIND
STRMLNS/MIXING RATIO INDICATES A DESCENT TONGUE OF MOISTURE
(~11G/KG) FEEDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE. WITH LIMITED INSOLATION/H85 CAA DROPPED HIGHS ON
FRIDAY INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH TIMING DIFFERENCE REMAINING
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF. TRENDED HIGHS DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SCENARIO...HOWEVER THE FROPA WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD MID-WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...
1126 PM MDT WED SEP 3 2008
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. LEFT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CERTAINTY OF
TAF SITES BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED. NEXT FEW TAF ISSUANCES WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT PRECIPITATION TIMING CLOSER AND POSSIBLY INCLUDE
THE MENTION OF PRECIP LATER...AFTER 06Z OR 12Z TOMORROW.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 040458
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV OVER NORTHERN AR CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH
TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI. GFS CONTINUES TO HANDLE PLACEMENT OF LOW
AND PRECIP BETTER THAN THE NAM. COMBINATION OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KS IS KEEPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/-RA OVER THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH INTENSITIES REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AS FINAL SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
700-1000 FOOT LAYER PUSHES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS 700-900 IN THE FOE/TOP SITES UNTIL
AROUND 11-12Z WITH 1200-2500 FT CIGS AT KMHK AS LOWER IFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHY OF REACHING WESTWARD TO THIS SITE. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT FOG WITH THE IFR CIGS AT KFOE/TOP AS WELL BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP IT ABOVE 5SM FOR NOW. AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
ADVANCES EASTWARD...EXPECT CIGS TO BE LIFTING BACK TO 1000-1500
FEET AFTER 12Z AT KFOE/KTOP...THEN VFR STRATACU DECK BY AROUND 19Z
WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR BY 00Z.
KMHK SITE SHOULD SEE VFR DECK AGAIN BY 13Z THEN SCATTERING BY 18Z.
TAF SITES WILL BE WITHIN WEAK SFC RIDGE 00Z THROUGH 06Z BUT WILL
NOT MENTION ANY FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS 8-12KTS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 00Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
DISCUSSION...
19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV DRIFTING NORTH
NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN AR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 19Z SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
MO AND EASTERN OK WITH DRYER AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV AND THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS WITH THE AID OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET. THEREFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
TO BE TO DEEP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS FOR RAIN TO FALL...SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY OUT WEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER
LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST BY NOON THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL KS SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KS
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. SO EXPECT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR
EASTERN KS THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...TO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
PREVENTING MUCH OF A DROP TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIX TO AROUND
850 THURSDAY...BUT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMP
ADVECTION WARM OR COLD. SO CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
THURSDAY/S WARM UP. WENT WITH MID 70S WEST WHERE THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE AND AROUND 70 EAST WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TO CLEAR OUT.
WOLTERS
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS BETWEEN EXITING TROPICAL REMAINS AND A EXTRATROPICAL
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROF. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO RATHER LIGHT BY LATE
EVENING...BUT SOME WIND OFF THE DECK IN THE SMALL-SCALE RIDGE AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MINIMIZE FOG CONCERNS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. IF CLOUDS CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET
THURSDAY AND ARE THEN MISSING THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOCATIONS HERE THAT
RECEIVED RAINS THIS WEEK COULD SEE SOME FOG. THE DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS FRIDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
RATHER DRY TROPOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN MOISTURE
CONCERNS. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE SLACKEN OVER THESE PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN MORE
CLOUD AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.
GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS...WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALTERED IN STEP WITH THE TREND.
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT UNDER RATHER COOL AND DRY LOW LEVELS...BUT HARD TO RULE
THUNDER OUT COMPLETELY AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS POINT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL
HELP BRING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR AROUND MID WEEK...BUT
SEE LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM TO ADD PRECIP FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY.
65
AVIATION...
BATTLE BETWEEN DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH AND MOISTURE PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON CIGS OVERNIGHT. 17Z SFC
OBS SHOW IFR CIGS A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE EAST FROM TOP AND FOE...
WHILE THE DRY AIR IS MORE ENTRENCHED AT MHK. AS THE REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV LIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN MO OVERNIGHT...THINK THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.
WITH BUFKIT DATA FROM NAM AND GFS INDICATING IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
TOP AND FOE...WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 800 FT BETWEEN 06Z AND
07Z. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 1000 FT AT MHK WITH MORE DRY AIR
FOR THE MOISTURE TO OVERCOME. OTHERWISE WILL USE PERSISTENCE AND
KEEP CIGS JUST ABOVE 3 KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS LITTLE OR
NO INSTABILITY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY TS.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
63
000
FXUS63 KICT 040457
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AND THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
AT KCNU ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE TREND AT THE REMAINING SITES
HAS BEEN FOR CIGS TO LOWER GRADUALLY AND AM EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE. THEREFORE BROUGHT IFR CIGS IN AT 08Z FOR KICT AND KHUT.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU AS
GUSTAV LIFTS OUT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING CLOUD TO CLEAR OUT AT KICT
AROUND 21Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS AND TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH.
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SE KS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THAT WOULD CAUSE FLOODING. THEREFORE
WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. ALSO DECREASED TEMPS VERY SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES AND CIGS OVERNIGHT.
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SE KS
WITH SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH KCNU
HAVING THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH IFR CIGS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT KCNU...AM CONFIDENT THAT THESE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING. WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER FOR KICT AND KHUT...AT THIS TIME AM NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
BELOW IFR. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE AT KICT AROUND 21Z.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. I HAVE FOLLOWED
THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN THE BEST
PROXIMITY FOR RAINFALL. LATEST WATER VAPOR IS ALSO SHOWING DRIER
AIR FORCING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND
ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ISNT QUITE PANNING
OUT. EVEN SO...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, I WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT DUE TO THE PAST RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST BAND ON ITS WAY
TO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
GUSTAV FINALLY EXITS THE AREA AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR WEATHER. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SETS UP IN THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 315K SURFACE WILL SUPPORT THIS
CHANGE QUITE WELL.
EXTENDED...
UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH GOOD
VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER DECENT SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO KANSAS. THIS
GENERATES SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE UPPER
JET ALSO PUNCHES INTO THE AREA GIVING SOME SUPPORT IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT. I HAVE GRADUATED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACCORDINGLY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CHANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 78 56 78 / 30 10 10 20
HUTCHINSON 55 77 53 76 / 20 10 10 30
NEWTON 56 77 55 77 / 30 10 10 20
ELDORADO 57 77 55 78 / 40 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 78 57 80 / 40 10 10 20
RUSSELL 51 78 53 71 / 20 10 10 40
GREAT BEND 52 78 55 72 / 20 10 10 40
SALINA 55 78 54 74 / 20 10 10 30
MCPHERSON 55 77 54 75 / 20 10 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 58 75 57 80 / 90 20 10 10
CHANUTE 57 74 55 79 / 90 30 10 10
IOLA 57 74 55 79 / 90 30 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 58 74 56 80 / 90 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 040222
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
917 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS AND TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH.
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SE KS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THAT WOULD CAUSE FLOODING. THEREFORE
WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. ALSO DECREASED TEMPS VERY SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES AND CIGS OVERNIGHT.
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SE KS
WITH SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH KCNU
HAVING THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH IFR CIGS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT KCNU...AM CONFIDENT THAT THESE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING. WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER FOR KICT AND KHUT...AT THIS TIME AM NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
BELOW IFR. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE AT KICT AROUND 21Z.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. I HAVE FOLLOWED
THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN THE BEST
PROXIMITY FOR RAINFALL. LATEST WATER VAPOR IS ALSO SHOWING DRIER
AIR FORCING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND
ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ISNT QUITE PANNING
OUT. EVEN SO...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, I WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT DUE TO THE PAST RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST BAND ON ITS WAY
TO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
GUSTAV FINALLY EXITS THE AREA AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR WEATHER. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SETS UP IN THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 315K SURFACE WILL SUPPORT THIS
CHANGE QUITE WELL.
EXTENDED...
UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH GOOD
VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER DECENT SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO KANSAS. THIS
GENERATES SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE UPPER
JET ALSO PUNCHES INTO THE AREA GIVING SOME SUPPORT IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT. I HAVE GRADUATED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACCORDINGLY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CHANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 78 56 78 / 30 10 10 20
HUTCHINSON 55 77 53 76 / 20 10 10 30
NEWTON 56 77 55 77 / 30 10 10 20
ELDORADO 57 77 55 78 / 40 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 78 57 80 / 40 10 10 20
RUSSELL 51 78 53 71 / 20 10 10 40
GREAT BEND 52 78 55 72 / 20 10 10 40
SALINA 55 78 54 74 / 20 10 10 30
MCPHERSON 55 77 54 75 / 20 10 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 58 75 57 80 / 90 20 10 10
CHANUTE 57 74 55 79 / 90 30 10 10
IOLA 57 74 55 79 / 90 30 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 58 74 56 80 / 90 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 040004
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV BEGINNING TO MAKE MORE OF A MOVE TO THE NORTH
TOWARDS MISSOURI WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA/TAF SITES FROM THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAFS SITES AHEAD OF THE RAIN IS KEEPING CIGS FROM GOING ANY
LOWER THAN THE 1500-3500FT RANGE WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY ACROSS
THE SITES. HOWEVER...IFR CIGS ARE NOT THAT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA...AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FINAL
SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 800-1500 FOOT RANGE WESTWARD INTO
THE TAF SITES BEGINNING IN THE 04-06Z TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD
EXPECT TO ALLOW IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TOP/FOE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING TO 1500-2500 AT KMHK. EXPECT CIGS
TO LIFTING BACK TO 1000-1500 FEET AFTER 12Z AT KFOE/TOP...THEN VFR
STRATACU DECK BY 19Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SCT LATE. BROUGHT VFR CONDITIONS BACK INTO
KMHK AFT 14Z AS IT WILL BE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EVENT IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CIGS ONCE THE LOW
LEVELS BACK AROUND MORE TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES NEAR 5 MILES TONIGHT...FEEL THIS
WOULD BE TOO BRIEF AND ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAF AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH -RA. EXPECT MIXING TO HELP LIMIT ANY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
DISCUSSION...
19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV DRIFTING NORTH
NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN AR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 19Z SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
MO AND EASTERN OK WITH DRYER AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV AND THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS WITH THE AID OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET. THEREFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
TO BE TO DEEP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS FOR RAIN TO FALL...SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY OUT WEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER
LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST BY NOON THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL KS SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KS
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. SO EXPECT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR
EASTERN KS THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...TO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
PREVENTING MUCH OF A DROP TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIX TO AROUND
850 THURSDAY...BUT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMP
ADVECTION WARM OR COLD. SO CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
THURSDAY/S WARM UP. WENT WITH MID 70S WEST WHERE THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE AND AROUND 70 EAST WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TO CLEAR OUT.
WOLTERS
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS BETWEEN EXITING TROPICAL REMAINS AND A EXTRATROPICAL
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROF. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO RATHER LIGHT BY LATE
EVENING...BUT SOME WIND OFF THE DECK IN THE SMALL-SCALE RIDGE AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MINIMIZE FOG CONCERNS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. IF CLOUDS CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET
THURSDAY AND ARE THEN MISSING THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOCATIONS HERE THAT
RECEIVED RAINS THIS WEEK COULD SEE SOME FOG. THE DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS FRIDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
RATHER DRY TROPOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN MOISTURE
CONCERNS. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE SLACKEN OVER THESE PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN MORE
CLOUD AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.
GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS...WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALTERED IN STEP WITH THE TREND.
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT UNDER RATHER COOL AND DRY LOW LEVELS...BUT HARD TO RULE
THUNDER OUT COMPLETELY AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS POINT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL
HELP BRING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR AROUND MID WEEK...BUT
SEE LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM TO ADD PRECIP FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY.
65
AVIATION...
BATTLE BETWEEN DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH AND MOISTURE PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON CIGS OVERNIGHT. 17Z SFC
OBS SHOW IFR CIGS A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE EAST FROM TOP AND FOE...
WHILE THE DRY AIR IS MORE ENTRENCHED AT MHK. AS THE REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV LIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN MO OVERNIGHT...THINK THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.
WITH BUFKIT DATA FROM NAM AND GFS INDICATING IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
TOP AND FOE...WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 800 FT BETWEEN 06Z AND
07Z. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 1000 FT AT MHK WITH MORE DRY AIR
FOR THE MOISTURE TO OVERCOME. OTHERWISE WILL USE PERSISTENCE AND
KEEP CIGS JUST ABOVE 3 KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS LITTLE OR
NO INSTABILITY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY TS.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
63
000
FXUS63 KICT 032338
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES AND CIGS OVERNIGHT.
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SE KS
WITH SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH KCNU
HAVING THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH IFR CIGS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT KCNU...AM CONFIDENT THAT THESE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING. WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER FOR KICT AND KHUT...AT THIS TIME AM NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
BELOW IFR. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE AT KICT AROUND 21Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. I HAVE FOLLOWED
THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN THE BEST
PROXIMITY FOR RAINFALL. LATEST WATER VAPOR IS ALSO SHOWING DRIER
AIR FORCING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND
ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ISNT QUITE PANNING
OUT. EVEN SO...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, I WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT DUE TO THE PAST RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST BAND ON ITS WAY
TO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
GUSTAV FINALLY EXITS THE AREA AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR WEATHER. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SETS UP IN THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 315K SURFACE WILL SUPPORT THIS
CHANGE QUITE WELL.
EXTENDED...
UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH GOOD
VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER DECENT SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO KANSAS. THIS
GENERATES SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE UPPER
JET ALSO PUNCHES INTO THE AREA GIVING SOME SUPPORT IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT. I HAVE GRADUATED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACCORDINGLY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CHANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 78 56 78 / 30 10 10 20
HUTCHINSON 55 77 53 76 / 20 10 10 30
NEWTON 56 77 55 77 / 30 10 10 20
ELDORADO 57 77 55 78 / 40 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 78 57 80 / 40 10 10 20
RUSSELL 51 78 53 71 / 20 10 10 40
GREAT BEND 52 78 55 72 / 20 10 10 40
SALINA 55 78 54 74 / 20 10 10 30
MCPHERSON 55 77 54 75 / 20 10 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 60 75 57 80 / 90 20 10 10
CHANUTE 59 74 55 79 / 90 30 10 10
IOLA 59 74 55 79 / 90 30 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 60 74 56 80 / 90 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-095-
096-099-100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 032309
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT WED SEP 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
111 PM MDT WED SEP 3 2008
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV IS PROGGED TO INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT
INTERACTS THE WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SSW ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL SHUNT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE
WELL EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA ON THURSDAY
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST. A MEAN LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS LENDING SUPPORT TO DRY/SEASONABLY COOL DAY WHICH WAS DEPICTED
WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND EMERGE ONTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z-21Z ON FRIDAY. 305K WIND
STRMLNS/MIXING RATIO INDICATES A DESCENT TONGUE OF MOISTURE
(~11G/KG) FEEDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE. WITH LIMITED INSOLATION/H85 CAA DROPPED HIGHS ON
FRIDAY INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH TIMING DIFFERENCE REMAINING
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF. TRENDED HIGHS DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SCENARIO...HOWEVER THE FROPA WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD MID-WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...
508 PM MDT WED SEP 3 2008
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
24
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 032028
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
19Z WATER VAPO | 
