[top]
000
FXUS64 KLIX 081737
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.AVIATION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTH
OF MOBILE BAY TO NORTH OF HAMMOND TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MORE
DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S SPILLING INTO
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ERGO...MCB AND GPT TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FREE OF WEATHER OBSTRUCTION AFTER 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WE ARE
EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AIR INVADING EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...BTR AND
MSY WILL EXPERIENCE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION AFTER 22Z THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL 4 TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
18
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081555
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EXTREME NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK VORTS DROPPING AROUND THE ERN CONUS TROF
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA DELTAS THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW COMBO OF THESE FEATURES IS HELPING PRODUCE
MULTIPLE POCKETS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER OUR EXTREME SERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...ANOTHER CROSSING
THE NER ZONES...AND A THIRD TO OUR NW OVER NERN TX. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE REGION IN A VERY MOIST STATE (KLCH/KLIX RAOBS BOTH AOA
125% OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND 80 PERCENT MRH) WITH MINIMAL TO NO
CAPPING. MODIFIED KLCH/KCRP SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
EITHER CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OR TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. ADJUSTED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON POPS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN AND NRN
ZONES. GOOD CHANCE THE MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WILL NEED ADJUSTING
BUT HAVE LEFT THEM ALONE FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE A GENERAL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RESULT IS A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THAT HAS HELPED SLIP A SURFACE "COOL" FRONT DOWN CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE RED RIVER BASIN INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
GOOD MOISTURE HAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PUSHING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...WITH FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS NEARING RAPIDES PARISH.
DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAX
DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
STORMS DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES ALONG WITH
MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...STORMS MIGHT HAVE
A LITTLE EXTRA KICK IN THEM. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK THAT SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.
WOULD EXPECT BOUNDARY TO HANG AROUND ON SATURDAY THAT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
ON SUNDAY...RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO FORECAST AREA...SO
WILL LOWER POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST RIGHT NOW.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT COME AROUND TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
ECMWF MOVES ANOTHER SURFACE TROF INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
GFS DOES NOT. WILL LEAVE POPS AT THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND HOPE
THAT LATER SOLUTION WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION...
MAIN STORY FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR THE KAEX
TAF SITE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TODAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PUSH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 92 73 92 75 92 / 50 30 30 20 20
KBPT 94 74 92 75 93 / 40 30 30 20 20
KAEX 92 70 94 73 94 / 60 20 30 20 20
KLFT 91 72 92 74 93 / 60 30 30 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
25
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSHV 081534
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1034 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
88D SHOWS A COUPLE OF GOOD AREAS SUSTAINING STRENGTH IN THIS NW
FLOW. ONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...MOVING OUT OF THE CWA INTO CEN
LA...AND THE OTHER EVEN BETTER OVER NE TX IN TYLER VICINITY
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. I ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON EXPECTATIONS FOR MOVEMENT OF CURRENT AREAS ALONG FRONT
WHICH STRETCHES FROM SE OK INTO NE LA. CLOUDS ADJUSTED AS WELL AND
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATED ZONES
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT MID-MORNING PER THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER SW TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR
LOWER. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER
09/0600 UTC IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. /BUTTS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 68 94 75 94 / 40 0 0 0 10
MLU 90 65 93 73 86 / 20 0 0 0 70
DEQ 88 65 90 73 87 / 20 0 0 0 20
TXK 88 68 93 74 92 / 40 0 0 0 20
ELD 90 63 94 72 87 / 20 0 0 0 70
TYR 86 70 94 76 95 / 80 20 20 0 10
GGG 86 70 94 75 94 / 80 20 20 0 10
LFK 91 72 95 75 95 / 60 20 30 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/21
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080909
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC IS ROUGHLY BI-SECTING THE ARE
THIS MORNING. SH/TS ARE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOWER
DP TEMPS ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY SLOWS A LITTLE
TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS FROM BTR TO MSY UNDER THE GUN FOR TS
ACTIVITY. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AS THE WESTERN END OF A
STRONG MID/UPPER DRY AIR SURGE MOVES SE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. SINCE THE FORCING IS TO THE SE...THE BOUNDARY WILL ONLY
MOVE NEAR THE COAST BEFORE STALLING FOR ROUGHLY 24 HOURS. THE SE SURGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE A STRONGLY SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER TX. THIS LOCATION WILL BE OVER
THE TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SPLIT FLOW IS ALREADY
OCCURRING THIS MORNING CAUSING STRONG LIFT AND AN MCS FEATURE TO
FORM ALONG WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SE.
THE LARGE COMPLEX FORMING THIS MORNING OVER TEXARKANA WILL RIDE
DOWN WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE FORMING. THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN REASON FOR KEEPING A TIGHT POP GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PLAY ROUGH TODAY AS WELL. HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN
THROWN IN. PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AS
ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AT A GOOD PACE TO THE SSE. THIS SCENARIO
CHANGES A BIT FOR SATURDAY. TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME ORIENTED NW
WHILE MOVEMENT WILL BE SE AT THE SAME SPEED. THIS WILL CAUSE TS
ACTIVITY TO HAVE A SUMMATION SPEED NEAR ZERO MAKING FOR SOME
PRETTY GOOD SOAKERS. THE AREA THAT THIS SHOULD AFFECT MOST WILL
BE FROM BTR TO MSY SOUTHWEST.
ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES SE ALONG THE TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO BEND OR MOVE NE BACK OVER THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERAL TS COULD
BE STRONG AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SEVERE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY STAYS ROUGHLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS BACK TO THE NE OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK
BRINGING MUCH OF THE FOCUS WITH IT FOR TS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE TO
FALL BACK TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER CONVECTION LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TROUGHS WILL FOCUS
SHRA/TSRA TODAY. CURRENT LINE OF TSRA FROM EAST OF KBTR-NEAR KHDC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH WITH ARRIVAL
TIME AT KMSY EXPECTED 0945-1000Z. A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND
MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
TSRA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL FIRE THIS MORNING AROUND
KMCB-KGPT WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO REFIRE ALONG THE
KBTR-KMSY CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE TSRA ALONG WITH THE
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AREAS. MOST AIRPORTS WILL DRY
OUT BY EVENING...THEN SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
22
&&
.MARINE...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL WINDS GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS...AND BOATERS AND OTHER MARINERS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL
LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS...THE
WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST LATE
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
RANGE BOTH IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
BACK NORTH AND DISSIPATES. 22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 64 92 72 / 30 10 20 30
BTR 93 69 93 74 / 60 20 30 30
MSY 92 73 92 77 / 60 30 30 20
GPT 92 66 92 73 / 30 10 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
17
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080836
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
336 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE A GENERAL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RESULT IS A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THAT HAS HELPED SLIP A SURFACE "COOL" FRONT DOWN CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE RED RIVER BASIN INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
GOOD MOISTURE HAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PUSHING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...WITH FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS NEARING RAPIDES PARISH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAX
DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
STORMS DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES ALONG WITH
MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...STORMS MIGHT HAVE
A LITTLE EXTRA KICK IN THEM. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK THAT SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.
WOULD EXPECT BOUNDARY TO HANG AROUND ON SATURDAY THAT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
ON SUNDAY...RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO FORECAST AREA...SO
WILL LOWER POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST RIGHT NOW.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT COME AROUND TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
ECMWF MOVES ANOTHER SURFACE TROF INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
GFS DOES NOT. WILL LEAVE POPS AT THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND HOPE
THAT LATER SOLUTION WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN STORY FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR THE KAEX
TAF SITE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TODAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PUSH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 92 73 92 75 92 / 40 30 30 20 20
KBPT 94 74 92 75 93 / 30 30 30 20 20
KAEX 92 70 94 73 94 / 50 20 30 20 20
KLFT 91 72 92 74 93 / 50 30 30 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE: RUA
AVIATION: JS
000
FXUS64 KSHV 080756
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
256 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT LYING ALONG THE RED RIVER OF
TEXAS AND THE AR/LA BORDER...WHILE AREA RADARS REFLECT THIS
W/SCATTERED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NM
AND EXTENDS UP INTO WRN CANADA...LEAVING THE FOUR-STATE AREA IN A
WET PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. FOCUS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT BACKDOORS SW THRU THE AREA...BEFORE THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS THE FOCUS TO NE
ZONES...SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU NW FLOW ALOFT. RIDGE
BEGINS TO DAMPEN MONDAY AS A TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS CANADA JUST NORTH
OF THE US BORDER...OPENING UP THE FA TO SLIGHT CHC POPS THE REST OF
THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TEMPS INTO THE EXTENDED...SO WE/LL NOT COOL THINGS DOWN SO
FAR JUST YET.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/NCNTRL LA THIS MORNING...ALONG A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME N TX...E INTO NE TX/N LA IN VC OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. BUT DESPITE THIS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH
CIGS RANGING FROM 7-11KFT...EXCEPT AROUND 4KFT NEAR SHRA. BELIEVE THAT
SHRA/ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH MIDMORNING
IN VC OF THE FRONT ACROSS NE TX/N LA...WITH MVFR CIGS NEAR 1.5KFT
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND 12Z AND ADVECTING WSW
INTO E TX THROUGH MIDMORNING. BUT EXTENT OF SHRA WILL DETERMINE
IF/HOW FAR WSW THIS STRATOCU DECK WILL FORM/AFFECT AREA TERMINALS.
WILL AWAIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EITHER PREVAIL/TEMPO SHRA/THUNDER
IN THE AFFECTED TAFS...MAINLY SW OF A M39 TO ELD LINE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SW MORESO INTO E
TX/WCNTRL LA. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS AND LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY EARLY/MID EVENING AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
N TX INTO DEEP E TX/SCNTRL LA. WILL LIKELY SEE RESIDUAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
TONIGHT...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP IN VC/SW OF THE FRONT MAINLY
OVER E TX BETWEEN 9-12Z. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE FRONT AFTER 6Z ACROSS E TX/WCNTRL LA. WILL LIKELY ADD VCSH
TO COVER THE THREAT...AND WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN OVER ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
WASH OUT. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 68 94 75 94 / 40 0 0 0 10
MLU 91 65 93 73 86 / 30 0 0 0 70
DEQ 88 65 90 73 87 / 30 0 0 0 20
TXK 88 68 93 74 92 / 40 0 0 0 20
ELD 89 63 94 72 87 / 20 0 0 0 70
TYR 92 70 94 76 95 / 40 0 20 0 10
GGG 91 70 94 75 94 / 40 0 20 0 10
LFK 94 72 95 75 95 / 30 20 30 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/44
000
FXUS64 KSHV 080306
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1006 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RAISE THEM A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO
REMAINING CLOUD COVER HELPING TO SLOW THE RATE OF HEAT LOSS. ALSO
DECREASED THE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AS A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION...HELPING TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOR FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS SPOTTY ACTIVITY BY
LATE MORNING...AND SPREADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
WERE BORDERLINE SEVERE THIS EVENING...AND FEEL THAT WITH THE FRONT
CLOSER AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY GREATER ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOWLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS WOULD BE SCATTERED MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z...BUT CONVECTION
AGAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 93 71 93 72 / 30 50 30 30 20
MLU 76 92 68 92 70 / 40 50 30 30 30
DEQ 73 92 70 92 70 / 40 50 30 20 30
TXK 75 92 71 92 71 / 40 50 30 30 30
ELD 74 92 68 92 70 / 40 50 30 20 30
TYR 74 96 73 94 73 / 30 50 30 20 20
GGG 75 94 72 93 73 / 30 50 30 20 20
LFK 76 96 72 94 72 / 20 50 30 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
18/14
000
FXUS64 KLCH 072344
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS TO 30% ACROSS INLAND SE TX...C AND
SC LA ZONES FOR ONGOING AND EXPECTED CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ACROSS C LA...GENERATING
SHRA/TSRA. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL.
DML
&&
..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN OK ACROSS SRN AR INTO
NRN MS. CLOSER TO SW LA AND SE TX...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
THE NW GULF AND ITS ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC WIND FIELD IS EVIDENT
ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND VSBL SAT IMAGES.
KLCH RADAR SHOW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE COAST NEAR THE SEABREEZE.
DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HELP PUSH
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW FRONT SETTLING SLOWLY SOUTH...EVENTUALLY STALLING ALONG
THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPECT
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING TONIGHT OVER NERN ZONES. KEPT CHC POPS
OVER THE INLAND ZONES FOR FRIDAY...WITH GREATEST CHANCES AGAIN
OVER THE NE ZONES CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST OR OVER NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WASH OUT BY LATE SATURDAY.
MAINTAINED SLT CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE VICINITY OF THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS
ABOVE 2 INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH WEAK STORM
MOTIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES AT THIS
TIME AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS MONITOR THE SITUATION.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE AREA. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER
FLOW ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND HAVE KEPT 20
POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AGAIN.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOURS.
MONITORING ONGOING CONVECTION (WHAT LITTLE THERE IS) IN CASE ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY FINDS ITS WAY NEAR ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. COULD BE
SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING TOWARD
SUNRISE AS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS WITH GOOD RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS. SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TOMORROW AS
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND COMBINES WITH SOME PROGGED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT.
25
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE GULF.
HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED THE FIRST DROUGHT STATEMENT OF THE YEAR FOR OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATED D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHILE D0-D1
CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
DEFICITS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...DESPITE THE CLOSE
CALL WITH TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD. DEPARTURES SINCE JUNE 1 RANGE
FROM NEARLY 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL TO 6.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
SOME RELIEF IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS...BUT EXPECT AREAWIDE
AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 92 73 92 75 / 20 30 30 30 20
KBPT 75 94 74 90 75 / 20 30 30 30 20
KAEX 74 90 72 92 72 / 30 50 20 30 20
KLFT 76 90 72 91 74 / 30 40 30 30 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 072110
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER TODAY LOOKS AS IF THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL CANADA WITH CLOSED
LOW ONE EITHER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA
AND OVER EASTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING
TROUGHS DOWN EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH WEAKER SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON A LOWER TREND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN LONGER
PERIODS BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER STORMS UP NORTH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT HAVE BRIDGED TOGETHER
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND REMAIN A
HELPING FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ONLY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE NEXT SOUTH
MOVING FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE PROPOGATING SW ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. I EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO DISSIPATE...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE TO BACK DOOR TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT SHOULD MAKE IT TOWARD A KTXK-KELD LINE
AROUND 08/0600 UTC. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SEEING CONVECTION AT
TERMINALS N OF IH-20. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AGAIN FRIDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CIGS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF CONVECTION...WHERE FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS MAY BE
SEEN. /BUTTS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 93 71 93 72 / 40 50 30 30 20
MLU 75 92 68 92 70 / 50 50 30 30 30
DEQ 72 92 70 92 70 / 50 50 30 20 30
TXK 74 92 71 92 71 / 50 50 30 30 30
ELD 73 92 68 92 70 / 50 50 30 20 30
TYR 73 96 73 94 73 / 30 50 30 20 20
GGG 74 94 72 93 73 / 30 50 30 20 20
LFK 75 96 72 94 72 / 30 50 30 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/21
000
FXUS64 KLCH 072107
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN OK ACROSS SRN AR INTO
NRN MS. CLOSER TO SW LA AND SE TX...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
THE NW GULF AND ITS ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC WIND FIELD IS EVIDENT
ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND VSBL SAT IMAGES.
KLCH RADAR SHOW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE COAST NEAR THE SEABREEZE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HELP PUSH
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW FRONT SETTLING SLOWLY SOUTH...EVENTUALLY STALLING ALONG
THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPECT
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING TONIGHT OVER NERN ZONES. KEPT CHC POPS
OVER THE INLAND ZONES FOR FRIDAY...WITH GREATEST CHANCES AGAIN
OVER THE NE ZONES CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST OR OVER NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WASH OUT BY LATE SATURDAY.
MAINTAINED SLT CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE VICINITY OF THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS
ABOVE 2 INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH WEAK STORM
MOTIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES AT THIS
TIME AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS MONITOR THE SITUATION.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE AREA. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER
FLOW ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND HAVE KEPT 20
POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOURS.
MONITORING ONGOING CONVECTION (WHAT LITTLE THERE IS) IN CASE ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY FINDS ITS WAY NEAR ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. COULD BE
SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING TOWARD
SUNRISE AS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS WITH GOOD RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS. SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TOMORROW AS
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND COMBINES WITH SOME PROGGED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT.
25
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE GULF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED THE FIRST DROUGHT STATEMENT OF THE YEAR FOR OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATED D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHILE D0-D1
CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
DEFICITS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...DESPITE THE CLOSE
CALL WITH TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD. DEPARTURES SINCE JUNE 1 RANGE
FROM NEARLY 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL TO 6.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
SOME RELIEF IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS...BUT EXPECT AREAWIDE
AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 92 73 92 75 / 20 30 30 30 20
KBPT 75 94 74 90 75 / 10 30 30 30 20
KAEX 74 90 72 92 72 / 30 50 20 30 20
KLFT 76 90 72 91 74 / 20 40 30 30 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KLIX 072026
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH APPALACHIA AND INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA...
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOST CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM CONCERNED POP FORECAST AND TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. FOR MOST AREAS...THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...
SEVERAL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE TREND...HAVE
ONLY DROPPED THE FORECAST POP TO 20 PERCENT FOR AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 59 SINCE I AM STILL A BIT UNSURE OF JUST HOW MUCH
DRYING WILL OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HAVING BEEN MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT KEEPING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD FINALLY START TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND
UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE GFS STALLS THE COLD FRONT
NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF STATES WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES THE FRONT ALL
THE WAY INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT THE
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURPRISINGLY...THE ECMWF
DOES GET SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH ALSO BRINGS
THE FRONT WELL INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE END OF ITS
FORECAST PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NUDGE POPS UP SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE NOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNTING THE POSSIBILITY OF FRONTAL EFFECTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH TAF FOR THE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS OF 2 T 3 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 88 68 91 / 40 60 20 30
BTR 75 90 71 92 / 30 60 20 30
MSY 76 89 75 90 / 30 50 20 30
GPT 75 88 71 90 / 40 60 20 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM
000
FXUS64 KSHV 071617 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST THREE PERIODS OF THE CURRENT ZONES
BY INCREASING AND EXPANDING THE AREAS OF RAIN CHANCES...CLOUD
COVER...AND WINDS. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE HIGH
FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WHICH WILL NOT CHANCE
WORDING IN ZONES FOR MOST GROUPINGS. DID MAKE MORE ZONE GROUPINGS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN RAIN CHANCES AND LOCATION OF SUCH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA GULF COAST
AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING FUEL FOR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION. THESE BOUNDARIES ALONG
WITH THOSE FROM FUTURE CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE NUDGED INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AND ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN...CLOUDS...AND OTHER PARAMETERS
WILL BE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
IGS CONTINUE TO LIFT LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS...WITH
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AREA RADARS SHOW SHRA/TSRA ALONG A FRONT IN CENTRAL AR.
OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION COULD INITIATE ADDITIONAL LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MY S AR AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY KTXK
AND KELD. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...AND RESULT IN THICKENING CIGS AND AN
INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TSRA. /BUTTS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 97 75 91 75 89 / 20 40 50 30 20
MLU 97 75 88 71 91 / 30 50 50 30 10
DEQ 97 72 89 70 90 / 30 50 50 30 10
TXK 98 74 90 72 90 / 30 50 50 30 10
ELD 96 73 90 69 90 / 40 50 50 30 10
TYR 95 73 94 74 90 / 20 30 50 30 40
GGG 96 74 92 74 90 / 20 30 50 30 40
LFK 97 75 93 73 88 / 20 30 50 30 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/21
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071543
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1043 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION IS PROVIDING LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 80S AROUND THE
AREA...AND ARE FAIRLY WELL REPRESENTED IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
GRIDS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S LOOK GOOD.
AS FOR RAINFALL...KLCH RADAR QUIET THIS MORNING. WEAK
CAPPING NOTED ON THE MORNING KLCH SOUNDING AND COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING AND
INSTABILITY COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF A FOCUSING
MECHANISM AT THE SFC (UNLESS SEA BREEZE CAN GET GOING) WILL LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES. FEEL 20 PERCENT POPS HAS THIS COVERED FOR NOW AND
SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
THE BIG PICTURE FROM THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAIN
WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES STILL SHOW DECENT
MOISTURE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2
INCHES AND MEAN RH NEAR 70 PERCENT. HOWEVER...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
DID SHOW SOME 70H AND 50H RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LOCAL RADARS QUIET AND NO NOCTURNAL SHOWS BEING DEPICTED YET.
DISCUSSION...
TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET ALBEIT HOT AND HUMID. DECENT MOISTURE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD HOLD THAT WILL PUT A LID ON MOST CONVECTION AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO HIGHER THAN A 20 POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAX HEATING.
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH MOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE EXPANDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY TO
THE SOUTH AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A FOCUS TO HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW FAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CAN GO. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT...OR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND TOWARD THE EAST
EARLIER NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THIS EARLY MORNING
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR
THE KAEX TAF SITE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY OR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS REACH. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THE RESULT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 94 76 92 75 90 / 20 20 30 20 30
KBPT 94 76 94 75 90 / 20 20 30 20 30
KAEX 97 74 90 73 92 / 20 20 50 20 30
KLFT 94 75 91 75 90 / 20 20 40 20 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 070855
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...
CHANGES WERE ONLY MADE TO MID TERM PERIODS. PW VALUES ON 00Z WAS
AROUND 2" ALREADY SO WE DON`T HAVE FAR TO GO TO REACH INTO THE 2+"
REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE 30%. NO OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS EXCEPT
HEATING AND CBRZ. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH THOUGH. FRIDAY PW NUMBERS
WILL BE 2.3" OR BETTER. THE INCREASE IN PW CAN ONLY MEAN ONE THING
IF THE SOUNDING IS ALREADY FILLED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME MOISTURE FILLED AS WELL. THIS WILL COME
WITH THE ADDITION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO AND
STALLING SOMEWERE IN THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A
FOCUS FOR SH/TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS DISTURBANCES TO RIDE SE ALONG
ITS AXIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCAST...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
QUASISTATIONARY MEANING IT MOVES BACK AND FORTH OVER TEH AREA AND
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. POPS WILL FLEX WITH THIS
MOVEMENT AS WELL AS TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
YESTERDAYS RAIN MISSED THE TAF LOCATIONS...SO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE. THE NORMAL EXCEPTION MAY BE KMCB WHO
IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST DROP TO MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS WITH POSSIBLE
LOWER CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE TAFS IS TIMING AND PROBABILITY OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THE ENTIRE NIGHTTIME PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CARRIED PROB30 AND WILL
CONTINUE THAT FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST WINDS KICKED UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE
SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE SHALLOW WATER BODIES LIKE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND BORGNE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY DROP OFF
NEAR SHORE LATE MORNING. TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY BACK TO WESTERLY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY
OVER TIDAL LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS...OVER THE MARINE AREA
MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 74 88 69 / 30 30 60 30
BTR 95 75 88 71 / 30 30 60 30
MSY 93 76 89 75 / 30 30 50 30
GPT 93 75 88 71 / 30 30 60 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 070824
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE BIG PICTURE FROM THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAIN
WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES STILL SHOW DECENT
MOISTURE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2
INCHES AND MEAN RH NEAR 70 PERCENT. HOWEVER...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
DID SHOW SOME 70H AND 50H RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LOCAL RADARS QUIET AND NO NOCTURNAL SHOWS BEING DEPICTED YET.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET ALBEIT HOT AND HUMID. DECENT MOISTURE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD HOLD THAT WILL PUT A LID ON MOST CONVECTION AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO HIGHER THAN A 20 POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAX HEATING.
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH MOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE EXPANDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY TO
THE SOUTH AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A FOCUS TO HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW FAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CAN GO. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT...OR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND TOWARD THE EAST
EARLIER NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THIS EARLY MORNING
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR
THE KAEX TAF SITE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY OR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS REACH. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THE RESULT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 94 76 92 75 90 / 20 20 30 20 30
KBPT 94 76 94 75 90 / 20 20 30 20 30
KAEX 97 74 90 73 92 / 20 20 50 20 30
KLFT 94 75 91 75 90 / 20 20 40 20 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE: RUA
AVIATION: JS
000
FXUS64 KSHV 070823
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
323 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FM ALBERTA SOUTH
TO NM...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS. TO THE
NORTH...SFC OBS PLOT A COLD FRONT NR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG W/NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL FINALLY OPEN UP THE
FOUR-STATE AREA TO A WET PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVELY WETTER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS...AND EVEN HINTS AT POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL...W/PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THE FRONT ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE STEERING FLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LATEST ECMWF AGREES...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH
MODELS INCREASE THE WARM LAYER TO OVER 4KM DEEP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THROW IN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...FRONT WILL WARRANT MODERATE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW RESUMES SUNDAY
NIGHT. FA THEN REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
EXTENDED...W/ABUNDANT SHORTWAVES TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER SLIGHT
CHANCES INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND. AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WX...TEMPS BEGIN COMING BACK TO NORMAL W/THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION. THUS...WE/LL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS...WHICH GENERALLY REFLECT THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE TX
TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 3-5 MILES IN FOG. OTHERWISE
WE SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SE OK
INTO SW AR. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN THE 12Z PACKAGE AT TXK/ELD
SITES HOWEVER AS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TOO ISOLATED. LOWERING VFR
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCKED UP ACROSS SE KS INTO S MO
MAKES A MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROMISES FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY...JUST BEYOND
THIS TAF CYCLE. /13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 97 75 94 75 89 / 0 40 60 0 20
MLU 95 75 88 71 91 / 20 50 70 0 10
DEQ 96 72 90 70 90 / 30 40 50 0 10
TXK 98 74 91 72 90 / 20 50 50 0 10
ELD 94 73 89 69 90 / 20 50 60 0 10
TYR 95 73 94 74 90 / 0 20 30 0 40
GGG 96 74 92 74 90 / 0 30 30 0 40
LFK 96 75 92 73 88 / 0 0 30 0 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/44
000
FXUS64 KSHV 070239
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
939 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE TEXT ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING RAIN...EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL NO LONGER BE IN GRIDDED PRODUCTS AFTER 10 PM.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PD. MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY AFFECT SRN AND ERN TAF SITES BY AROUND 09-10Z...BUT
SHOULD COME UP TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z. EXPECT SLY WINDS 3-5 KT
OVERNIGHT...TURING SWLY AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING. EVEN WITH DRIER
FLOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCT CU DEVELOPMENT. SCT SHRA
AND ISLD TSRA MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN...BUT GREATER
CHANCES COME IN AFTER 00Z...AS BELOVED NW FLOW RETURNS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING DECENT AUGUST
RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRN AND ERN TERMINALS. THUS...WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL -RA BY ABOUT 01Z AT THOSE SITES...AND CONTINUE IT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PD./12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 96 75 90 71 / 10 20 30 50 20
MLU 74 96 72 89 68 / 10 20 50 50 20
DEQ 73 96 72 91 65 / 10 20 50 50 20
TXK 75 96 73 92 69 / 10 20 50 50 20
ELD 73 96 71 90 67 / 10 20 50 50 20
TYR 75 95 75 94 72 / 10 20 20 20 20
GGG 74 95 73 92 70 / 10 20 20 30 20
LFK 73 94 74 92 72 / 10 20 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/12
000
FXUS64 KLCH 070023
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
723 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008
.UPDATE...
MOST AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. UPDATE IS
SIMPLY TO REMOVE 30% WORDING OF SHRA/TSRA FROM FORECAST THIS
EVENING. ONLY ISO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER FORECAST
PARAMETER CHANGES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
THE POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT FOR T.S. EDOUARD IS CURRENTLY
BEING COMPILED...AND A PRELIMINARY ISSUANCE WILL BE ISSUED LATER
THIS EVENING. KEEP IN MIND...THE DATA IS PRELIMINARY...AND
SUBJECT TO UPDATES AND CORRECTIONS AS APPROPRIATE. THANK YOU.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD SPINNING OVER N CENT TX. THE
STORM LEFT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HOT MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90 AND DEWPTS IN THE 70S PRODUCING RHS FROM AROUND 65
PERCENT TO 75 PERCENT...PRIMARILY IN SRN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY. BUT WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS MET SO LEFT IN A SLT CHC FOR PRECIP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST FRIDAY AS THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH DEEPENS...PROVIDING A MORE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
IT LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS AND STRETCHES EAST...ESSENTIALLY KEEPING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MADE FEW CHANGES TO INHERITED
GRIDS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF IT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z/23Z. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH SUNSET AND
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME MILD RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
IN LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT MAYBE
KBPT...WITH WORST POSSIBLE CONDITIONS BEING A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
VISIBILITY AT KAEX.
25
MARINE...
CALCASIEU PASS TIDE GAGE DATA IS CURRENTLY SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE DUE TO THE REMOVAL OF THE GAGE PRIOR TO THE INSTALLATION
OF A NEW NOS SENTINEL GAGE. OTHER OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA
INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY AROUND 5 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET
WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 94 75 91 73 / 30 20 10 30 20
KBPT 75 94 74 93 75 / 30 20 10 30 20
KAEX 73 96 73 89 72 / 30 20 20 40 20
KLFT 74 93 76 90 74 / 30 20 20 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 062105
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
405 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD SPINNING OVER N CENT TX. THE
STORM LEFT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HOT MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90 AND DEWPTS IN THE 70S PRODUCING RHS FROM AROUND 65
PERCENT TO 75 PERCENT...PRIMARILY IN SRN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY. BUT WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS MET SO LEFT IN A SLT CHC FOR PRECIP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST FRIDAY AS THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH DEEPENS...PROVIDING A MORE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
IT LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS AND STRETCHES EAST...ESSENTIALLY KEEPING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MADE FEW CHANGES TO INHERITED
GRIDS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF IT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z/23Z. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH SUNSET AND
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME MILD RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
IN LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT MAYBE
KBPT...WITH WORST POSSIBLE CONDITIONS BEING A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
VISIBILITY AT KAEX.
25
&&
.MARINE...
CALCASIEU PASS TIDE GAGE DATA IS CURRENTLY SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE DUE TO THE REMOVAL OF THE GAGE PRIOR TO THE INSTALLATION
OF A NEW NOS SENTINEL GAGE. OTHER OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA
INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY AROUND 5 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET
WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 94 75 91 73 / 30 20 10 30 20
KBPT 75 94 74 93 75 / 30 20 10 30 20
KAEX 73 96 73 89 72 / 30 20 20 40 20
KLFT 74 93 76 90 74 / 30 20 20 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KSHV 062058
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
THAT ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH SHORT LIVED. THE UPPER RIDGING JUST HAS
NOT ALLOWED ANYTHING TO GET ORGANIZED INTO ANYTHING OTHER THAN POP
CORN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS NE UPPER FLOW OVER NEARLY ALL THE AREA
WRAPPING INTO A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ON THE OTHER END A GOOD
LITTLE VORT IS SEEN OVER THE CEN.GULF COAST. MOST OF THE ACTION
HAS BEEN IN THE WAKE OF EDOUARD...WHICH CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST
WEST OF THE METRO PLEX. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR CURRENT COVERAGE WILL
PERSIST FOR A WHILE...BUT LIKELY END...MAYBE EVEN BEFORE SUNSET.
JUST A SLIGHT POP FOR MID EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME LIKELY
TO BE QUIET ONE MORE NIGHT.
MUCH FARTHER NORTH THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A GOOD PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND BRINGING IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THIS
WEEK. A LOT MAY OCCUR NOCTURNALLY WITH DEVELOPING NW FLOW AS THAT
SHEAR AXIS SINKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS EVENTUALITY WITH A CONTINUED...EVEN BETTER PERHAPS BREAK FROM
THE RECENT HEAT. MAV/MEX A LITTLE EXCESSIVE FOR MID SUMMER AND
BLENDED INTO ONGOING FORECAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EXTENDED AS RAIN
CHANCES REALLY DROP OFF FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN SLOWLY CREEPS
BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS THE
TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EAST...WE/LL PROBABLY SEE A MUCH LESS
ACTIVE NW FLOW UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER EVEN
STRONGER FRONT/TROUGH DROP IN ACROSS THE EASTERN US. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
EDOUARD...LOCATED OVER NORTH TEXAS WEST OF FORT WORTH...CONTINUED TO
AFFECT PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION BUT MAINLY DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
CONTINUED FEEDING GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
DROPPING OFF WITH LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS OVER THE WEST
WILL BE MORE SOUTH THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHILE THOSE OVER THE EAST
WILL BE SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND
07/03Z WHEN SPEEDS DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR 3 TO 7 KNOTS.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR OR IFR IN
SHOWERS. INCLUDING THESE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST WILL NOT OCCUR
SINCE SLIM CHANCES OF RAIN AT TERMINAL FORECAST SITES. THERE MAY BE
SOME PATCHY BR/MIST WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 3 TO 5 STATUTE
MILES AROUND 07/10Z 07/13Z THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE AREAS
IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THAT SEE BR SUCH AS KELD AND KDEQ. VFR FOR
THURSDAY AFTER FOG BURN OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES OF 20 PERCENT. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 96 75 90 71 / 20 20 30 50 20
MLU 74 96 72 89 68 / 20 20 50 50 20
DEQ 73 96 72 91 65 / 20 20 50 50 20
TXK 75 96 73 92 69 / 20 20 50 50 20
ELD 73 96 71 90 67 / 20 20 50 50 20
TYR 75 95 75 94 72 / 20 20 20 20 20
GGG 74 95 73 92 70 / 20 20 20 30 20
LFK 73 94 74 92 72 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/06
000
FXUS64 KLIX 062019
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA RESULTING IN ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO INHIBIT FREE CONVECTION. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE POPS THOUGH SINCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT EASY TO BREAK THE CAP WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. ONCE AGAIN...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
LATE TOMORROW AND INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EAST...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AS IT REACHES OUR
AREA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING LOCALLY STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT STILL LOOKS AS IF
THE STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH WILL ALSO HELP TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...LEFT CHANCE POPS IN
EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS TIMING OF THE SMALLER IMPULSES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.
AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FINALLY
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...LIMITING POPS FOR THE
WESTERN HALF THE REGION TUES AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT BOTH KMCB AND
KBTR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 94 74 88 / 10 30 30 50
BTR 75 95 75 90 / 10 30 30 50
MSY 77 93 76 90 / 10 30 30 50
GPT 75 93 75 89 / 10 30 30 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM
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