000
FXUS61 KALY 282327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LESS CONCENTRATED AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUE TO INCH EAST...AS STRONG UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE PROVIDES DOWNSTREAM STRONG UPPER CONFLUENCE...ANCHORING
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPING LOW LEVELS
DRY. LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NY/PA CONTINUES TO INCH EAST...AND WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN WEAKENED FORM.

UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL RETREAT NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SLOWLY SPREAD FROM OH VALLEY AND
WESTERN NY/PA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST FIRST...SO JUST SOME SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFFECTING WESTERN AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL AFFECT ALL
AREAS BY SUNRISE...BUT SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THIS EVENING COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL NEAR DEW POINT LEVELS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY...RESULTING IN COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. SO...AROUND 50 COOLER SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER
50S WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTH AND EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS...AS VERY
LITTLE FORCING. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...THOUGH...SO EVEN
WITH WEAK FORCING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SO THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER
IN MOUNTAINS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING TAKES PLACE
PROVIDING SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FORCING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALSO SUPPORTING MEASURABLE RAIN. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE...
POTENTIALLY BECOMING ANOTHER UPPER CUT-OFF LOW. WITH AT LEAST
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME CLEARING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ONCE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EXIT.

SOME COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING.
BASED ON STRENGTHENING OF UPPER SYSTEM AS IT HEADS OFFSHORE...AND
STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM UPPER CONFLUENCE...GUIDANCE MAY BE
UNDERDOING THE COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WENT ON
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS IN 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE WITH RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL START IN THE MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MIN
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 60 IN THE VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS JUST NORTHWEST OF JAMES BAY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL
STORM FAY WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL FOG
AND HAVE FORECAST NO WORSE THAN MVFR VSBYS AT KGFL BETWEEN 05Z AND
12Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TERMINALS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NITE...VFR...SLGT CHC OF SHRA WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH AND
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TONIGHT WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT AND DROP
BACK TO BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT...HIGHER VALUES INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX FOR THE REGION IS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 300...SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/ STREAMFLOW CONDITION
MAPS FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN OUR NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL ACROSS
BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.
USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ONE WELL IN
SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY NY WHICH SHOW
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING DAYS
OF SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...BJF
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KBOX 282157
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
557 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA PROVIDING DRY AND
WARMING WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 40N AND 60W IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

CHANGES: YESTERDAYS GFS SIGNALS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN SPOT ON! BKN SC
NOW FLIRTING WITH CAPE COD. REVIEWING MORE DATA BUT LIKELY ADDING 35
PCT MORE CLOUD TO OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK TONIGHT...WILL BE DONE BY 615
PM.

OTRW VARIABLE CIRRUS AND AC INTERIOR.

SO...OVERALL A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ACK. FOG
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE TO DERIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...925MB EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND INCREASING
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOWING FOR ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY WITH REMAINING DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS. THE 12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE  SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES INCLUDING A SPURIOUS SHORT WAVE.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SREFS
AND THE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES SIGNAL DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO ADVANCE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MECHANISMS FOR
LIFT REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY HAVE MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW ENGLAND APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE PATTERN OVER
THE USA THIS PERIOD.  MAIN FEATURES ARE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND BUILDING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA
THEREAFTER.

THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT.  JET LEVEL
SUPPORT TRAILS THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 15 KNOTS.  THE BEST
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT 4 MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THE
TIMING COULD SHIFT ENOUGH TO MOVE THIS FAVORED AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT
A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS.  FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH -12C ALOFT OVER MAINE AND NH...AND
PROBABLY INTO EASTERN MASS AS WELL.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER PATTERN DIGS A TROF OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THIS MEANS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR US
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS START AROUND 11C
SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 18C WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 80F
SUNDAY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK. IF 850 TEMPS ACTUALLY
LINGER NEAR 18C WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGHS NEAR 90F WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW WE WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT KEEP IT IN THE 80S.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MARITIMES.  THE GFS KEEPS US
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WARM AND DRY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DRIFTS THE
OCEAN STORM WEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
SECTIONS. INCLINATION IS TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THURSDAY. COULD BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...EXCEPTING ACK WHERE INTERMITTENT
CIGS NR 1500 FT THRU THE NIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS 2-3 THOUSAND FT DVLPG HYA BY 06Z AND MHT-BOS FOR A TIME
10Z-15Z FRI. LCL MVFR VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES ACROSS SHELTERED
LOCATIONS NEAR THE INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS AND BOGS FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS 020-030 HND FT MAINLY KBOS HYA ACK
UNTIL 15Z. LCL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE BY 15Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LCL MVFR VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES
ACROSS SHELTERED LOCATIONS. ISOLD SHRA AFT 09Z WESTERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME ENE SWELL AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT. THE E SWELL COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE LINGERING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND
4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS TO THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 557
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS 557
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 282051
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA PROVIDING DRY AND
WARMING WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 40N AND 60W IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO SOME
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...EXAMINING THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA...SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WERE NOTED
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE PROGRESSION AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF THESE CLOUDS AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWEST AND TRY TO EXPAND OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXAMINING THE LATEST GFS AND
NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...BOTH MODELS DO NOT FEATURE ANY SHORT
WAVES ROTATING NEAR THE REGION AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE BRINGING
THIS MOISTURE IN A BIT TOO QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL FLOW 925MB AND BELOW
REMAINS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS AND STRATUS TO EXPAND BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. HOWEVER THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL WARM AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY DRY. OVERALL HAVE
DECIDED ON A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE. FOG PATCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE TO DERIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...925MB EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND INCREASING
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOWING FOR ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY WITH REMAINING DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS. THE 12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE  SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES INCLUDING A SPURIOUS SHORT WAVE.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SREFS
AND THE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES SIGNAL DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO ADVANCE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MECHANISMS FOR
LIFT REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY HAVE MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW ENGLAND APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE PATTERN OVER
THE USA THIS PERIOD.  MAIN FEATURES ARE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND BUILDING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA
THEREAFTER.

THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT.  JET LEVEL
SUPPORT TRAILS THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 15 KNOTS.  THE BEST
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT 4 MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THE
TIMING COULD SHIFT ENOUGH TO MOVE THIS FAVORED AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT
A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS.  FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH -12C ALOFT OVER MAINE AND NH...AND
PROBABLY INTO EASTERN MASS AS WELL.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER PATTERN DIGS A TROF OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THIS MEANS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR US
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS START AROUND 11C
SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 18C WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 80F
SUNDAY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK. IF 850 TEMPS ACTUALLY
LINGER NEAR 18C WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGHS NEAR 90F WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW WE WILL GO ABOVE GUIDENCE BUT KEEP IT IN THE 80S.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MARITIMES.  THE GFS KEEPS US
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WARM AND DRY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DRIFTS THE
OCEAN STORM WEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
SECTIONS. INCLINATION IS TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THURSDAY. COULD BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 06Z. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS 020-030 HND
FT FROM ORH-MHT-BOS-HYA-ACK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LCL MVFR
VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES ACROSS SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS AND BOGS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS 020-030 HND FT MAINLY KORH
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO CAPE COD UNTIL 15Z. LCL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
NEAR SHORE BY 15Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LCL MVFR VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES
ACROSS SHELTERED LOCATIONS. ISOLD SHRA AFT 09Z WESTERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME ENE SWELL AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT. THE E SWELL COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE LINGERING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND
4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS TO THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 282037
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA PROVIDING DRY AND
WARMING WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 40N AND 60W IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO SOME
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...EXAMINING THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA...SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WERE NOTED
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE PROGRESSION AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF THESE CLOUDS AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWEST AND TRY TO EXPAND OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXAMINING THE LATEST GFS AND
NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...BOTH MODELS DO NOT FEATURE ANY SHORT
WAVES ROTATING NEAR THE REGION AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE BRINGING
THIS MOISTURE IN A BIT TOO QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL FLOW 925MB AND BELOW
REMAINS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS AND STRATUS TO EXPAND BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. HOWEVER THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL WARM AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY DRY. OVERALL HAVE
DECIDED ON A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE. FOG PATCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE TO DERIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...925MB EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND INCREASING
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOWING FOR ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY WITH REMAINING DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS. THE 12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE  SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES INCLUDING A SPURIOUS SHORT WAVE.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SREFS
AND THE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES SIGNAL DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO ADVANCE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MECHANISMS FOR
LIFT REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY HAVE MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW ENGLAND APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE PATTERN OVER
THE USA THIS PERIOD.  MAIN FEATURES ARE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND BUILDING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA
THEREAFTER.

THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT.  JET LEVEL
SUPPORT TRAILS THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 15 KNOTS.  THE BEST
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT 4 MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THE
TIMING COULD SHIFT ENOUGH TO MOVE THIS FAVORED AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT
A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS.  FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH -12C ALOFT OVER MAINE AND NH...AND
PROBABLY INTO EASTERN MASS AS WELL.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER PATTERN DIGS A TROF OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THIS MEANS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR US
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS START AROUND 11C
SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 18C WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 80F
SUNDAY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK. IF 850 TEMPS ACTUALLY
LINGER NEAR 18C WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGHS NEAR 90F WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW WE WILL GO ABOVE GUIDENCE BUT KEEP IT IN THE 80S.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MARITIMES.  THE GFS KEEPS US
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WARM AND DRY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DRIFTS THE
OCEAN STORM WEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
SECTIONS. INCLINATION IS TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THURSDAY. COULD BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 06Z. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS 020-030 HND
FT FROM ORH-MHT-BOS-HYA-ACK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LCL MVFR
VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES ACROSS SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS AND BOGS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS 020-030 HND FT MAINLY KORH
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO CAPE COD UNTIL 15Z. LCL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
NEAR SHORE BY 15Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LCL MVFR VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES
ACROSS SHELTERED LOCATIONS. ISOLD SHRA AFT 09Z WESTERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME ENE SWELL AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE LINGERING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND
4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS TO THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 282036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA PROVIDING DRY AND
WARMING WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 40N AND 60W IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO SOME
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...EXAMINING THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA...SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WERE NOTED
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE PROGRESSION AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF THESE CLOUDS AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWEST AND TRY TO EXPAND OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXAMINING THE LATEST GFS AND
NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...BOTH MODELS DO NOT FEATURE ANY SHORT
WAVES ROTATING NEAR THE REGION AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE BRINGING
THIS MOISTURE IN A BIT TOO QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL FLOW 925MB AND BELOW
REMAINS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS AND STRATUS TO EXPAND BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. HOWEVER THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL WARM AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY DRY. OVERALL HAVE
DECIDED ON A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE. FOG PATCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE TO DERIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...925MB EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND INCREASING
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOWING FOR ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY WITH REMAINING DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS. THE 12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE  SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES INCLUDING A SPURIOUS SHORT WAVE.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SREFS
AND THE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES SIGNAL DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO ADVANCE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MECHANISMS FOR
LIFT REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY HAVE MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW ENGLAND APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE PATTERN OVER
THE USA THIS PERIOD.  MAIN FEATURES ARE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND BUILDING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA
THEREAFTER.

THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT.  JET LEVEL
SUPPORT TRAILS THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 15 KNOTS.  THE BEST
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT 4 MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THE
TIMING COULD SHIFT ENOUGH TO MOVE THIS FAVORED AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT
A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS.  FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH -12C ALOFT OVER MAINE AND NH...AND
PROBABLY INTO EASTERN MASS AS WELL.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER PATTERN DIGS A TROF OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THIS MEANS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR US
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS START AROUND 11C
SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 18C WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 80F
SUNDAY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK. IF 850 TEMPS ACTUALLY
LINGER NEAR 18C WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGHS NEAR 90F WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW WE WILL GO ABOVE GUIDENCE BUT KEEP IT IN THE 80S.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MARITIMES.  THE GFS KEEPS US
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WARM AND DRY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DRIFTS THE
OCEAN STORM WEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
SECTIONS. INCLINATION IS TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THURSDAY. COULD BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 06Z. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS 020-030 HND
FT FROM ORH-MHT-BOS-HYA-ACK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LCL MVFR
VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES ACROSS SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS AND BOGS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS 020-030 HND FT MAINLY KORH
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO CAPE COD UNTIL 15Z. LCL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
NEAR SHORE BY 15Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LCL MVFR VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES
ACROSS SHELTERED LOCATIONS. ISOLD SHRA AFT 09Z WESTERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME ENE SWELL AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE LINGERING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND
4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS TO THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 281958
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LESS CONCENTRATED AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUE TO INCH EAST...AS STRONG UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE PROVIDES DOWNSTREAM STRONG UPPER CONFLUENCE...ANCHORING
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPING LOW LEVELS
DRY. LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NY/PA CONTINUES TO INCH EAST...AND WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN WEAKENED FORM.

UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL RETREAT NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SLOWLY SPREAD FROM OH VALLEY AND
WESTERN NY/PA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST FIRST...SO JUST SOME SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFFECTING WESTERN AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL AFFECT ALL
AREAS BY SUNRISE...BUT SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THIS EVENING COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL NEAR DEW POINT LEVELS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY...RESULTING IN COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. SO...AROUND 50 COOLER SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER
50S WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTH AND EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS...AS VERY
LITTLE FORCING. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...THOUGH...SO EVEN
WITH WEAK FORCING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SO THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER
IN MOUNTAINS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING TAKES PLACE
PROVIDING SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FORCING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALSO SUPPORTING MEASURABLE RAIN. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE...
POTENTIALLY BECOMING ANOTHER UPPER CUT-OFF LOW. WITH AT LEAST
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME CLEARING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ONCE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EXIT.

SOME COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING.
BASED ON STRENGTHENING OF UPPER SYSTEM AS IT HEADS OFFSHORE...AND
STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM UPPER CONFLUENCE...GUIDANCE MAY BE
UNDERDOING THE COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WENT ON
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS IN 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE WITH RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL START IN THE MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MIN
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 60 IN THE VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS JUST NORTHWEST OF JAMES BAY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS ONCE
TS FAY WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTN AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST TO NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING IN AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY AT OR NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THIS COULD DROP KGFL DOWN TO IFR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT...BUT KALB AND KPOU LIKELY WON/T GO ANY WORSE THAN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG FOR JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE...RETURNING FLYING CONDITIONS TO
VFR...BUT A BKN MID LEVEL DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI PM...VFR...SLGT CHC OF SHRA WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH AND
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TONIGHT WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT AND DROP
BACK TO BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT...HIGHER VALUES INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX FOR THE REGION IS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 300...SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/ STREAMFLOW CONDITION
MAPS FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN OUR NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL ACROSS
BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.
USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ONE WELL IN
SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY NY WHICH SHOW
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING DAYS
OF SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...BJF
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KBOX 281949
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA PROVIDING DRY AND
WARMING WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT REGARDING HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER.
OTHERWISE LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...OVER WESTERN NY/PA INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TODAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE-E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH NE INTO MAINE...
BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A COUPLE OF 80
DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WILL
START TO PUSH E OVERNIGHT. WITH ONSHORE FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. SOME MODELS DO TRY TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH CUTOFF LOW S OF NOVA
SCOTIA. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY IN A COUPLE OF COASTAL AIRPORT
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

FRIDAY...THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP W OF THE REGION. A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE-S.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S...THOUGH A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE PATTERN OVER
THE USA THIS PERIOD.  MAIN FEATURES ARE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND BUILDING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA
THEREAFTER.

THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT.  JET LEVEL
SUPPORT TRAILS THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 15 KNOTS.  THE BEST
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT 4 MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THE
TIMING COULD SHIFT ENOUGH TO MOVE THIS FAVORED AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT
A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS.  FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH -12C ALOFT OVER MAINE AND NH...AND
PROBABLY INTO EASTERN MASS AS WELL.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER PATTERN DIGS A TROF OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THIS MEANS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR US
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS START AROUND 11C
SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 18C WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 80F
SUNDAY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK. IF 850 TEMPS ACTUALLY
LINGER NEAR 18C WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGHS NEAR 90F WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW WE WILL GO ABOVE GUIDENCE BUT KEEP IT IN THE 80S.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MARITIMES.  THE GFS KEEPS US
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WARM AND DRY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DRIFTS THE
OCEAN STORM WEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
SECTIONS. INCLINATION IS TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THURSDAY. COULD BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING...IMPROVING BY
14Z. OTHERWISE VFR. EXPECT CIGS AOA 12KFT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT NE WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS WITH HIGHEST
WIND ON THE FAR E WATERS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT. NE SWELLS FROM
STATIONARY LOW PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA COULD BRING SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO E AS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO MAINE AND THE
MARITIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE LINGERING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND
4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS TO THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 281722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW YORK INTO QUEBEC WILL RECEDE INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT..HOWEVER IT WILL
WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND A
STACKED LOW WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL. CIRRUS FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION
RESULTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOG...LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...WILL BURN OF EARLY THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL
EDGE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES...SO EXPECT FOG TO
FORM AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AND GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 500HPA...ONE LARGE CUTOFF WELL OFFSHORE...A RIDGE COVERS MUCH
OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...A TROF REPRESENTING THE REMAINS OF
FORMER TS FAY FM OH TO NC...AND FCA WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF THE
INTERACTION OF THESE. INITIALLY (MONDAY AND TUESDAY) THERE WAS
DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TRACKING OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TWRD A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
FINALLY GETTING ON BOARD THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
PASSES OUT WELL SOUTH OF FCA...AND WHAT MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT COMES NORTH WILL SLIDE UP TO OUR WEST...LEAVING US WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN CIRRUS...AND FILTERED SUNSHINE...WHICH IN THE
GRID WORLDS WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...WHILE IN THE OLD DAYS A HAZY OR
FILTERED SUNSHINE FORECAST WOULD DESCRIBE IT. IT FINALLY CLOUDS UP
LATE FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING CDFNT AND WHAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
FAY REMAINS. WILL KEEP FRIDAY MAINLY DRY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE AFTN ALONG THE W PERIPHERY...AND CHC EVERYWHERE FRI
NIGHT.

UPSTAIRS AT 500HPA THE MODELS ARE DEMONSTRATING THE ROSBY WAVE LAW
WHICH LIMITS THE SCALE AND CLOSENESS OF SHORT WAVES...AND THE
RESULT IS THE OFFSHORE CUTOFF GETS KICKED NORTHEAST TWRD
NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROF AND ITS ASSOC VORT REMAINS LARGELY WELL N OF FCA IN
CANADA...BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PUSH A WEAK CDFNT INTO NYS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FCA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER AND
HAS THIS SYSTEMS MAIN CLOUDS CLEARING N & W SECTIONS BY NOON SAT AND
ENTIRE AREA BY ERLY AFTN. NAM/GFS SUGGESTS SCT DIURNAL -SHRA/TSTMS
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL
EMPHASIS CLOUDS DCRNG DURING AFTN. THIS THREAT OF -SHRA/TSTMS FRI
NT INTO SAT MRNG WILL BE THE ONLY PCPN THREAT FOR FCA TILL LATE IN
EFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT QUICKLY EXITS COAST SAT EVENING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY
FINE EXTENDED. GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLES ALL BUILD A MASSIVE 500HPA RIDGE
OVR THE GRTLKS AND MIDWEST...WHICH DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF & GEM ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. FURTHER ENHANCING BUILDING THE RIDGE IS THE SUBSIDENCE
THAT RESULTS NORTH OF TWO EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH AN
UNUSUAL DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY AMONG ALL THE MEMBERS OF THE
ENSEMBLES AND SPAGHETTI PLOTS AT 156 HOURS THAT LOOK MORE TYPICAL
OF 72 ON THE SFC AND MID LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENTS. THE 500HPA
CUTOFF THAT IS CARVED OUT EAST OF THE RIDGE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLC
THAT THERE WERE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT RETROGRADING IS NOW EVEN
FURTHER EAST ON TONIGHT`S RUNS...AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC IN 31 OF 32 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF 12 MEMBER GFS AND
20 MEMBER GEFS. SHOULD BE DRY THRU LATE WEEK...WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS ONCE
TS FAY WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTN AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST TO NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING IN AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY AT OR NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THIS COULD DROP KGFL DOWN TO IFR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT...BUT KALB AND KPOU LIKELY WON/T GO ANY WORSE THAN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG FOR JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE...RETURNING FLYING CONDITIONS TO
VFR...BUT A BKN MID LEVEL DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI PM...VFR...SLGT CHC OF SHRA WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMFLOW CONDITION MAPS
FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN OUR NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER
LEVELS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE ONE WELL IN SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY
NY WHICH SHOW BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...GO TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KBOX 281651
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1251 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT REGARDING HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER.
OTHERWISE LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...OVER WESTERN NY/PA INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TODAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE-E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH NE INTO MAINE...
BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A COUPLE OF 80
DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WILL
START TO PUSH E OVERNIGHT. WITH ONSHORE FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. SOME MODELS DO TRY TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH CUTOFF LOW S OF NOVA
SCOTIA. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY IN A COUPLE OF COASTAL AIRPORT
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

FRIDAY...THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP W OF THE REGION. A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE-S.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S...THOUGH A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
28/00Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. NOT MUCH GOING ON DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURES WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE
DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SWITCHED TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 600 MB. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO RULE THUNDER OUT COMPLETELY JUST YET. A SMALL INCREASE IN
DEW POINTS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE CAP.
ANOTHER FACTOR AGAINST THUNDER IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ITSELF. A
NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL WILL NOT SYNC WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
THIS SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING...AND THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

MAIN EFFECTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WHILE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT SWELLS TO IMPACT
THE EAST COAST OF MA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE MOMENT.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE...SO USED THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO
TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING...IMPROVING BY
14Z. OTHERWISE VFR. EXPECT CIGS AOA 12KFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR IN
NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT NE WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS WITH HIGHEST
WIND ON THE FAR E WATERS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT. NE SWELLS FROM
STATIONARY LOW PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA COULD BRING SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO E AS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO MAINE AND THE
MARITIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND 4 FT SWELLS
TOWARD THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF MA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 281518
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1118 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT REGARDING HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...OVER WESTERN NY/PA INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TODAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE-E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH NE INTO MAINE...
BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A COUPLE OF 80
DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WILL
START TO PUSH E OVERNIGHT. WITH ONSHORE FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. SOME MODELS DO TRY TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH CUTOFF LOW S OF NOVA
SCOTIA. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY IN A COUPLE OF COASTAL AIRPORT
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

FRIDAY...THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP W OF THE REGION. A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE-S.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S...THOUGH A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
28/00Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. NOT MUCH GOING ON DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURES WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE
DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SWITCHED TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 600 MB. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO RULE THUNDER OUT COMPLETELY JUST YET. A SMALL INCREASE IN
DEW POINTS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE CAP.
ANOTHER FACTOR AGAINST THUNDER IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ITSELF. A
NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL WILL NOT SYNC WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
THIS SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING...AND THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

MAIN EFFECTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WHILE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT SWELLS TO IMPACT
THE EAST COAST OF MA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE MOMENT.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE...SO USED THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO
TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING...IMPROVING BY
14Z. OTHERWISE VFR. EXPECT CIGS AOA 12KFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR IN
NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT NE WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS WITH HIGHEST
WIND ON THE FAR E WATERS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT. NE SWELLS FROM
STATIONARY LOW PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL COULD BRING SEAS UP TO 5
FT ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO E AS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO MAINE AND THE
MARITIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND 4 FT SWELLS
TOWARD THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF MA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 281139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...OVER WESTERN NY/PA INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TODAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE-E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH NE INTO MAINE...
BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A COUPLE OF 80
DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WILL
START TO PUSH E OVERNIGHT. WITH ONSHORE FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. SOME MODELS DO TRY TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH CUTOFF LOW S OF NOVA
SCOTIA. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY IN A COUPLE OF COASTAL AIRPORT
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

FRIDAY...THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP W OF THE REGION. A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE-S.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S...THOUGH A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
28/00Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. NOT MUCH GOING ON DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURES WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE
DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SWITCHED TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 600 MB. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO RULE THUNDER OUT COMPLETELY JUST YET. A SMALL INCREASE IN
DEW POINTS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE CAP.
ANOTHER FACTOR AGAINST THUNDER IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ITSELF. A
NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL WILL NOT SYNC WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
THIS SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING...AND THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

MAIN EFFECTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WHILE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT SWELLS TO IMPACT
THE EAST COAST OF MA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE MOMENT.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE...SO USED THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO
TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING...IMPROVING BY
14Z. OTHERWISE VFR. EXPECT CIGS AOA 12KFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR IN
NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT NE WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS WITH HIGHEST
WIND ON THE FAR E WATERS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT. NE SWELLS FROM
STATIONARY LOW PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL COULD BRING SEAS UP TO 5
FT ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO E AS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO MAINE AND THE
MARITIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND 4 FT SWELLS
TOWARD THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF MA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...EVT/BELK
MARINE...EVT/BELK

000
FXUS61 KALY 281054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW YORK INTO QUEBEC WILL RECEDE INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT..HOWEVER IT WILL
WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND A
STACKED LOW WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL. CIRRUS FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION
RESULTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOG...LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...WILL BURN OF EARLY THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL
EDGE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES...SO EXPECT FOG TO
FORM AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AND GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 500HPA...ONE LARGE CUTOFF WELL OFFSHORE...A RIDGE COVERS MUCH
OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...A TROF REPRESENTING THE REMAINS OF
FORMER TS FAY FM OH TO NC...AND FCA WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF THE
INTERACTION OF THESE. INITIALLY (MONDAY AND TUESDAY) THERE WAS
DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TRACKING OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TWRD A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
FINALLY GETTING ON BOARD THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
PASSES OUT WELL SOUTH OF FCA...AND WHAT MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT COMES NORTH WILL SLIDE UP TO OUR WEST...LEAVING US WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN CIRRUS...AND FILTERED SUNSHINE...WHICH IN THE
GRID WORLDS WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...WHILE IN THE OLD DAYS A HAZY OR
FILTERED SUNSHINE FORECAST WOULD DESCRIBE IT. IT FINALLY CLOUDS UP
LATE FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING CDFNT AND WHAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
FAY REMAINS. WILL KEEP FRIDAY MAINLY DRY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE AFTN ALONG THE W PERIPHERY...AND CHC EVERYWHERE FRI
NIGHT.

UPSTAIRS AT 500HPA THE MODELS ARE DEMONSTRATING THE ROSBY WAVE LAW
WHICH LIMITS THE SCALE AND CLOSENESS OF SHORT WAVES...AND THE
RESULT IS THE OFFSHORE CUTOFF GETS KICKED NORTHEAST TWRD
NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROF AND ITS ASSOC VORT REMAINS LARGELY WELL N OF FCA IN
CANADA...BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PUSH A WEAK CDFNT INTO NYS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FCA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER AND
HAS THIS SYSTEMS MAIN CLOUDS CLEARING N & W SECTIONS BY NOON SAT AND
ENTIRE AREA BY ERLY AFTN. NAM/GFS SUGGESTS SCT DIURNAL -SHRA/TSTMS
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL
EMPHASIS CLOUDS DCRNG DURING AFTN. THIS THREAT OF -SHRA/TSTMS FRI
NT INTO SAT MRNG WILL BE THE ONLY PCPN THREAT FOR FCA TILL LATE IN
EFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT QUICKLY EXITS COAST SAT EVENING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY
FINE EXTENDED. GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLES ALL BUILD A MASSIVE 500HPA RIDGE
OVR THE GRTLKS AND MIDWEST...WHICH DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF & GEM ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. FURTHER ENHANCING BUILDING THE RIDGE IS THE SUBSIDENCE
THAT RESULTS NORTH OF TWO EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH AN
UNUSUAL DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY AMONG ALL THE MEMBERS OF THE
ENSEMBLES AND SPAGHETTI PLOTS AT 156 HOURS THAT LOOK MORE TYPICAL
OF 72 ON THE SFC AND MID LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENTS. THE 500HPA
CUTOFF THAT IS CARVED OUT EAST OF THE RIDGE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLC
THAT THERE WERE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT RETROGRADING IS NOW EVEN
FURTHER EAST ON TONIGHT`S RUNS...AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC IN 31 OF 32 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF 12 MEMBER GFS AND
20 MEMBER GEFS. SHOULD BE DRY THRU LATE WEEK...WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FOG THAT
FORMED NEAR BODIES OF WATERS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR...SLGT CHC OF SHRA WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMFLOW CONDITION MAPS
FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN OUR NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER
LEVELS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE ONE WELL IN SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY
NY WHICH SHOW BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...GO TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KBOX 280805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SEEN ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP AFTER ECLIPSE. HOWEVER...THE RAIN IS WELL W
OF THE REGION...OVER WESTERN NY/PA TO THE MID ATLC STATES. HIGH PRES
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROTECT
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE-E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH NE INTO MAINE...
BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A COUPLE OF 80
DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WILL
START TO PUSH E OVERNIGHT. WITH ONSHORE FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. SOME MODELS DO TRY TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH CUTOFF LOW S OF NOVA
SCOTIA. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY IN A COUPLE OF COASTAL AIRPORT
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

FRIDAY...THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP W OF THE REGION. A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE-S.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S...THOUGH A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
28/00Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. NOT MUCH GOING ON DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURES WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE
DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SWITCHED TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 600 MB. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO RULE THUNDER OUT COMPLETELY JUST YET. A SMALL INCREASE IN
DEW POINTS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE CAP.
ANOTHER FACTOR AGAINST THUNDER IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ITSELF. A
NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL WILL NOT SYNC WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
THIS SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING...AND THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

MAIN EFFECTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WHILE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT SWELLS TO IMPACT
THE EAST COAST OF MA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE MOMENT.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE...SO USED THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO
TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING...IMPROVING BY
14Z. OTHERWISE VFR. EXPECT CIGS AOA 12KFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR IN
NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT NE WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS WITH HIGHEST
WIND ON THE FAR E WATERS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT. NE SWELLS FROM
STATIONARY LOW PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL COULD BRING SEAS UP TO 5
FT ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO E AS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO MAINE AND THE
MARITIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND 4 FT SWELLS
TOWARD THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF MA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...EVT/BELK
MARINE...EVT/BELK

000
FXUS61 KALY 280708
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
308 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW YORK INTO QUEBEC WILL RECEDE INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT..HOWEVER IT WILL
WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND A
STACKED LOW WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL. CIRRUS FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION
RESULTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOG...LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...WILL BURN OF EARLY THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL
EDGE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES...SO EXPECT FOG TO
FORM AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AND GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 500HPA...ONE LARGE CUTOFF WELL OFFSHORE...A RIDGE COVERS MUCH
OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...A TROF REPRESENTING THE REMAINS OF
FORMER TS FAY FM OH TO NC...AND FCA WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF THE
INTERACTION OF THESE. INITIALLY (MONDAY AND TUESDAY) THERE WAS
DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TRACKING OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TWRD A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
FINALLY GETTING ON BOARD THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
PASSES OUT WELL SOUTH OF FCA...AND WHAT MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT COMES NORTH WILL SLIDE UP TO OUR WEST...LEAVING US WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN CIRRUS...AND FILTERED SUNSHINE...WHICH IN THE
GRID WORLDS WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...WHILE IN THE OLD DAYS A HAZY OR
FILTERED SUNSHINE FORECAST WOULD DESCRIBE IT. IT FINALLY CLOUDS UP
LATE FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING CDFNT AND WHAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM FAY REMAINS. WILL KEEP FRIDAY MAINLY DRY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE AFTN ALONG THE W PERIPHERY...AND CHC EVERYWHERE FRI
NIGHT.

UPSTAIRS AT 500HPA THE MODELS ARE DEMONSTRATING THE ROSBY WAVE LAW
WHICH LIMITS THE SCALE AND CLOSENESS OF SHORT WAVES...AND THE
RESULT IS THE OFFSHORE CUTOFF GETS KICKED NORTHEAST TWRD
NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROF AND ITS ASSOC VORT REMAINS LARGELY WELL N OF FCA IN
CANADA...BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PUSH A WEAK CDFNT INTO NYS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FCA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER AND
HAS THIS SYSTEMS MAIN CLOUDS CLEARING N & W SECTIONS BY NOON SAT AND
ENTIRE AREA BY ERLY AFTN. NAM/GFS SUGGESTS SCT DIURNAL -SHRA/TSTMS
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL
EMPHASIS CLOUDS DCRNG DURING AFTN. THIS THREAT OF -SHRA/TSTMS FRI
NT INTO SAT MRNG WILL BE THE ONLY PCPN THREAT FOR FCA TILL LATE IN
EFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT QUICKLY EXITS COAST SAT EVENING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY
FINE EXTENDED. GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLES ALL BUILD A MASSIVE 500HPA RIDGE
OVR THE GRTLKS AND MIDWEST...WHICH DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF & GEM ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. FURTHER ENHANCING BUILDING THE RIDGE IS THE SUBSIDENCE
THAT RESULTS NORTH OF TWO EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH AN
UNUSUAL DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY AMONG ALL THE MEMBERS OF THE
ENSEMBLES AND SPAGHETTI PLOTS AT 156 HOURS THAT LOOK MORE TYPICAL
OF 72 ON THE SFC AND MID LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENTS. THE 500HPA
CUTOFF THAT IS CARVED OUT EAST OF THE RIDGE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLC
THAT THERE WERE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT RETROGRADING IS NOW EVEN
FURTHER EAST ON TONIGHT`S RUNS...AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC IN 31 OF 32 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF 12 MEMBER GFS AND
20 MEMBER GEFS. SHOULD BE DRY THRU LATE WEEK...WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE CALM
WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT. VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR FOR A PERIOD AT KGFL WITH MVFR AT KALB AND
KPOU. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOG WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR...SLGT CHC OF SHRA WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMFLOW CONDITION MAPS
FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN OUR NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER
LEVELS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE ONE WELL IN SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY
NY WHICH SHOW BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...GO TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 280623
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
222 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW YORK INTO QUEBEC WILL RECEDE INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT..HOWEVER IT WILL
WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND A
STACKED LOW WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL. CIRRUS FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION
RESULTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOG...LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...WILL BURN OF EARLY THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL
EDGE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES...SO EXPECT FOG TO
FORM AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AND GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 500HPA...ONE LARGE CUTOFF WELL OFFSHORE...A RIDGE COVERS MUCH
OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...A TROF REPRESENTING THE REMAINS OF
FORMER TS FAY FM OH TO NC...AND FCA WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF THE
INTERACTION OF THESE. INITIALLY (MONDAY AND TUESDAY) THERE WAS
DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TRACKING OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TWRD A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
FINALLY GETTING ON BOARD THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
PASSES OUT WELL SOUTH OF FCA...AND WHAT MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT COMES NORTH WILL SLIDE UP TO OUR WEST...LEAVING US WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN CIRRUS...AND FILTERED SUNSHINE...WHICH IN THE
GRID WORLDS WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...WHILE IN THE OLD DAYS A HAZY OR
FILTERED SUNSHINE FORECAST WOULD DESCRIBE IT. IT FINALLY CLOUDS UP
LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGH AS AN APPROACHING CDFNT AND WHAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FAY REMAINS. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AND
INTRODUCE CHC POPS FRI NIGHT.

UPSTAIRS AT 500HPA THE MODELS ARE DEMONSTRATING THE ROSBY WAVE LAW
WHICH LIMITS THE SCALE AND CLOSENESS OF SHORT WAVES...AND THE
RESULT IS THE OFFSHORE CUTOFF GETS KICKED NORTHEAST TWRD
NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROF AND ITS ASSOC VORT REMAINS LARGELY WELL N OF FCA IN
CANADA...BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PUSH A WEAK CDFNT INTO NYS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FCA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER AND
HAS THIS SYSTEMS MAIN CLOUDS CLEARING N & W SECTIONS BY NOON SAT AND
ENTIRE AREA BY ERLY AFTN. NAM/GFS SUGGESTS SCT DIURNAL -SHRA/TSTMS
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL
EMPHASIS CLOUDS DCRNG DURING AFTN. THIS THREAT OF -SHRA/TSTMS FRI
NT INTO SAT MRNG WILL BE THE ONLY PCPN THREAT FOR FCA TILL LATE IN
EFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT...ALLOWING
MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND AROUND 50
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO SETTLE IN ON
SUNDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW THAT WENT THROUGH OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY...BECOMING CLOSED OFF AND MEANDERING SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS MAY BRING IN A CLOUD OR TWO OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
NEXT CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE CALM
WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT. VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR FOR A PERIOD AT KGFL WITH MVFR AT KALB AND
KPOU. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOG WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR...SLGT CHC OF SHRA WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMFLOW CONDITION MAPS
FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN OUR NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER
LEVELS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE ONE WELL IN SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY
NY WHICH SHOW BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...GO TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 280529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW YORK INTO QUEBEC WILL RECEDE INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP...BUT NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MAV
NUMBERS WERE TOO COOL FOR LAST NIGHT/S LOW TEMPS...SO WILL OPT FOR A
MAV/MET BLEND TONIGHT. NO FROST ANYWHERE ANTICIPATED. CIRRUS WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD COVER IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 500HPA...ONE LARGE CUTOFF WELL OFFSHORE...A RIDGE COVERS MUCH
OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...A TROF REPRESENTING THE REMAINS OF
FORMER TS FAY FM OH TO NC...AND FCA WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF THE
INTERACTION OF THESE. INITIALLY (MONDAY AND TUESDAY) THERE WAS
DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TRACKING OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TWRD A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
FINALLY GETTING ON BOARD THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
PASSES OUT WELL SOUTH OF FCA...AND WHAT MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT COMES NORTH WILL SLIDE UP TO OUR WEST...LEAVING US WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN CIRRUS...AND FILTERED SUNSHINE...WHICH IN THE
GRID WORLDS WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...WHILE IN THE OLD DAYS A HAZY OR
FILTERED SUNSHINE FORECAST WOULD DESCRIBE IT. IT FINALLY CLOUDS UP
LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGH AS AN APPROACHING CDFNT AND WHAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FAY REMAINS. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AND
INTRODUCE CHC POPS FRI NIGHT.

UPSTAIRS AT 500HPA THE MODELS ARE DEMONSTRATING THE ROSBY WAVE LAW
WHICH LIMITS THE SCALE AND CLOSENESS OF SHORT WAVES...AND THE
RESULT IS THE OFFSHORE CUTOFF GETS KICKED NORTHEAST TWRD
NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROF AND ITS ASSOC VORT REMAINS LARGELY WELL N OF FCA IN
CANADA...BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PUSH A WEAK CDFNT INTO NYS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FCA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER AND
HAS THIS SYSTEMS MAIN CLOUDS CLEARING N & W SECTIONS BY NOON SAT AND
ENTIRE AREA BY ERLY AFTN. NAM/GFS SUGGESTS SCT DIURNAL -SHRA/TSTMS
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL
EMPHASIS CLOUDS DCRNG DURING AFTN. THIS THREAT OF -SHRA/TSTMS FRI
NT INTO SAT MRNG WILL BE THE ONLY PCPN THREAT FOR FCA TILL LATE IN
EFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT...ALLOWING
MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND AROUND 50
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO SETTLE IN ON
SUNDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW THAT WENT THROUGH OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY...BECOMING CLOSED OFF AND MEANDERING SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS MAY BRING IN A CLOUD OR TWO OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
NEXT CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE CALM
WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT. VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR FOR A PERIOD AT KGFL WITH MVFR AT KALB AND
KPOU. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOG WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR...SLGT CHC OF SHRA WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 55 TO 65
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMFLOW CONDITION MAPS
FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN OUR NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER
LEVELS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE ONE WELL IN SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY
NY WHICH SHOW BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...GO TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 272319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL SLIDE WEST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP...BUT NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MAV
NUMBERS WERE TOO COOL FOR LAST NIGHT/S LOW TEMPS...SO WILL OPT FOR A
MAV/MET BLEND TONIGHT. NO FROST ANYWHERE ANTICIPATED. CIRRUS WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD COVER IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIRRUS COVERAGE ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
TODAY...SO SUNSHINE MORE FILTERED.

GFS AND NAM IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING FAY PRECIP TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXTREME WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACH...POP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
ONLY TO CHANCE EXTREME WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL...DRY EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES SLIGHT AT THIS POINT AND
NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN GRIDS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL BE
CROSSING CWA WITH FRONT APPROACHING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE
CWA-WIDE AND BASED ON GFS SHOWALTER INDEX GOING SUB ZERO WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER CWA-WIDE. GFS DEVELOPS WEAK WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THIS
SLOWS THE FRONT/S PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE FRONT CLEARING THE
CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH NO CLEAR FAVORITE AT THIS POINT WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPER POPS BACK FOR
WESTERN HALF OF CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN ONE QUARTER INCH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS...AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO SETTLE IN ON
SUNDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW THAT WENT THROUGH OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY...BECOMING CLOSED OFF AND MEANDERING SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS MAY BRING IN A CLOUD OR TWO OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
NEXT CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXCEPT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...NO WX AND LIGHT
WINDS THOUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF FAY AT BAY UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SCT/BKN CIRRUS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADIATIONAL FOG
CONCERNS WILL BE HIGHEST AT KGFL WHERE IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. AT KALB AND
KPOU...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG IN A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.

OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI THRU SAT...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL SLIDE WEST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT THURSDAY.

NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMFLOW CONDITION MAPS
FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN OUR NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER
LEVELS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE ONE WELL IN SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY
NY WHICH SHOW BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...GO TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SUMMER /JUNE...JULY...AUGUST/ PRECIP TOTAL AT ALBANY IS 15.37 INCHES
/THROUGH TODAY/. TO BREAK INTO THE TOP TEN WETTEST SUMMERS...WE NEED
TO REACH 16.01 INCHES /SET IN 1843/. SO WE/RE 0.64 INCH SHORT. GIVEN
EXPECTED PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
COME UP JUST SHORT. THE RECORD SUMMER PRECIPITATION TOTAL AT ALBANY
IS 27.71 INCHES RECORDED IN 1871.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...SND
CLIMATE...OKEEFE

000
FXUS61 KBOX 272035
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REMNANTS OF FAY WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUT THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT THAT MOISTURE FROM MOVING INTO THIS AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE UPPER
50S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SLIGHTLY AS REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.  AS NOTED ABOVE...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT FAY WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA.  MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY/S SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RIDGE MAY RETREAT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THAT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
27/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SIMILAR GENERALLY NICE LATE
SUMMER WX SOLUTIONS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT DIFFER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE WEEKEND CFP.

DRY HIGH PRES SHOULD RULE THRU FRI AND AGAIN MON-WED NEXT WEEK WITH A
CFP EARLY SUN. /SREF DOES OFFER A SLIGHT POP FRI MORNING FROM THE NE
ALONG THE MASS COAST BUT ATTM NOT APPLYING/

THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR THIS 7 DAY PERIOD.

THE DAILIES... ESSENTIALLY 12Z GFS MAVMOS GUIDANCE TT/TD/WIND/WIND
DIR/SKYCOVER. POPS/WX ARE EXACTLY AS INHERITED FROM THE 4AM PKG...PLS
SEE THE PGH BELOW.


12Z GFS ENS AND THE 09Z SREF OFFER HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND THAN KBOX
4AM AND 4PM FCSTS FROM TODAY...HOWEVER DID NOT ACCEPT THIS DUE TO ECMWF
BEING DRY AND THE UK SLOWER. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FIX/CONSENSUS ON
TIMING...THOUGHT IT BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. AM NORMALLY NOT TOO
RELUCTANT TO GO FOR THE EVENT...BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT THE USUAL WAA
SHOWER PRODUCER. THE RECENT 10 HR IN-ADVANCE POOR PRODUCING FCST FOR
THE MON AFTN CONVECTION WHICH ENDED UP ONLY CAPE COD IS ANOTHER
REASON FOR REMAINING CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FCST.

THUNDER POTENTIAL IS DECENT...800 ML CAPE FOR CT AT 18Z SAT AND SOME
WEAK BUT FAIRLY ORGANIZED FGEN.

RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: ATTM NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED.

FOG ADDED TO THE FCST AS PER GRIDDED RH GREATER THAN 97 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR.  LCL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY GROUND FOG
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH
NIGHTTIME HOURS PATCHES IFR/MVFR FOG/STRATUS.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...N WINDS SHIFTING TO NE 10-15KTS WITH SEAS UP
TO 4 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE...MAY SEE SOME NE SWELLS FROM
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY BRINGING SEAS UP TO 5 FT THERE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND 4-5 FT SWELLS
TOWARD THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF MA FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/BELK
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG/BELK 434
AVIATION...DRAG/BELK/RLG 434
MARINE...DRAG/BELK/RLG 434

000
FXUS61 KALY 272005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL SLIDE WEST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP...BUT NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MAV
NUMBERS WERE TOO COOL FOR LAST NIGHT/S LOW TEMPS...SO WILL OPT FOR A
MAV/MET BLEND TONIGHT. NO FROST ANYWHERE ANTICIPATED. CIRRUS WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD COVER IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIRRUS COVERAGE ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
TODAY...SO SUNSHINE MORE FILTERED.

GFS AND NAM IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING FAY PRECIP TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXTREME WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACH...POP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
ONLY TO CHANCE EXTREME WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL...DRY EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES SLIGHT AT THIS POINT AND
NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN GRIDS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL BE
CROSSING CWA WITH FRONT APPROACHING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE
CWA-WIDE AND BASED ON GFS SHOWALTER INDEX GOING SUB ZERO WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER CWA-WIDE. GFS DEVELOPS WEAK WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THIS
SLOWS THE FRONT/S PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE FRONT CLEARING THE
CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH NO CLEAR FAVORITE AT THIS POINT WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPER POPS BACK FOR
WESTERN HALF OF CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN ONE QUARTER INCH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS...AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO SETTLE IN ON
SUNDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW THAT WENT THROUGH OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY...BECOMING CLOSED OFF AND MEANDERING SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS MAY BRING IN A CLOUD OR TWO OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
NEXT CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHEAST OF AREA. NO WX AND LIGHT WINDS THOUGH THURSDAY. SOME
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KGFL WHERE IFR IS
POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY
AT BAY UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
REGION. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING KGFL WHERE
CIRRUS SHIELD WILL BE THINNEST AND BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI THRU SAT...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL SLIDE WEST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT THURSDAY.

NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMFLOW CONDITION MAPS
FROM TODAY SHOW THAT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN OUR NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. USGS GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS SHOW GROUND WATER
LEVELS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE ONE WELL IN SARATOGA COUNTY NY AND ONE WELL IN DUTCHESS COUNTY
NY WHICH SHOW BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY SO STREAMFLOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS FAY INTERACT WITH A COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS IS EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...GO TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SUMMER /JUNE...JULY...AUGUST/ PRECIP TOTAL AT ALBANY IS 15.37 INCHES
/THROUGH TODAY/. TO BREAK INTO THE TOP TEN WETTEST SUMMERS...WE NEED
TO REACH 16.01 INCHES /SET IN 1843/. SO WE/RE 0.64 INCH SHORT. GIVEN
EXPECTED PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
COME UP JUST SHORT. THE RECORD SUMMER PRECIPITATION TOTAL AT ALBANY
IS 27.71 INCHES RECORDED IN 1871.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...SND
CLIMATE...OKEEFE

000
FXUS61 KBOX 271841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
241 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REMNANTS OF FAY WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUT THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT THAT MOISTURE FROM MOVING INTO THIS AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE UPPER
50S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SLIGHTLY AS REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.  AS NOTED ABOVE...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT FAY WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA.  MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY/S SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RIDGE MAY RETREAT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THAT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
27/00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF MAIN FEATURES. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE FASTER THAN
THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...AND A DEVELOPING BLOCK IN THE MID LEVELS...THINKING THE
SLOWER TIMING IS BEST AT THIS POINT. WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
MINIMIZE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ERRORS.

NOT MUCH GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THE MAIN
PLAYER THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. 00Z MODELS TRYING TO BRING THE
REMNANTS OF FAY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT EXPECT THIS
SYSTEM TO BE SHEARED OUT...THEN SENT OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LEAVES THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD CROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AS EARLY AS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK FOR RIP CURRENTS...A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA IS EXPECTED TO SEND EAST SWELLS TOWARD THE MA COAST BY
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN
AN INCREASED RISK OF HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST-FACING
BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR.  LCL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY GROUND FOG
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...N WINDS SHIFTING TO NE 10-15KTS WITH SEAS UP
TO 4 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE...MAY SEE SOME NE SWELLS FROM
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY BRINGING SEAS UP TO 5 FT THERE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND 4-5 FT SWELLS
TOWARD THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF MA FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
A CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 271742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL RECEDE
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY. THE MUCH WEAKENED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM FAY WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH ONLY A SCATTERED SHOWER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH TUESDAY MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION...RESULTING
IN FINE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. FOG WILL BURN OF
QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF FAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. TODAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
RIDGE WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND
THE REMNANTS OF FAY TO THE WEST AND A STACKED LOW WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO EXPECTED SOME FOG
TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND LOOK
REASONABLE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH IS RIDGED FROM LABRADOR TO MID ATLC STATES AS MOISTURE
AND 500HPA SHORT WAVE REMNANTS OF FAY LIFT FROM EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY TWRD ST. LAWRENCE VLY. NAM TAKES ALL THIS MOISTURE UP TO
OUR WEST...KEEPING FCA DRY AND FAIR THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
GFS/CANADIAN GEM BRINGS IT FARTHER EAST...WITH INCRG CLOUDS THUR
NIGHT...AND SHOWS MORE CLOUDINESS AND A THREAT OF -SHRA
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CHC CATEGORY. SO GFS/GEM TEND TO PRODUCE A
BIGGER CLOUD RESPONSE FROM THE FAY REMNANTS...WHILE NAM SHEARS IT
OFF TO OUR WEST AND ITS ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT APPROACHING 500HPA
TROF OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WILL TAKE POPS OUT OF THU AND KEEP IT
FAIR AND DRY. WILL INCR CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM SW TO NE...BUT
CARRY ONLY SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS THU NT INTO FRI.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE THE NAM/GFS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT AS
SFC CDFNT REACHES A YOW TO YNG LINE BY 00UTC SAT. THIS CONTINUES
THE TREND OF PAST FEW DAYS SPEEDING THIS SYSTEM UP FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE GEM IS EVEN FASTER MOVING IT EAST. NAM/GFS ARE PRETTY DRY
AHEAD OF CDFNT WITH ONLY HINT OF SCT -SHRA/TSTMS FRI NIGHT. ALL
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT MOST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THE
ACTUAL FRONT.

GFS/NAM HAVE FRONT REACH A BGM- MSS LINE 12UTC SAT AND BY AFTN
THE CDFNT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND -SHRA/TSMS HAVE CLEARED
ALL OF FCA EXCEPT THE FAR SE NY AND W NEW ENG ZONES. CLEARING WILL
PUSH EAST WITH N & W NY ZONES CLEARING IN THE AM...AND FM ALB S &
E DURING AFTN AND ERLY EVENING. THE GEM HAS IT CLEARING OUT EVERY
WHERE BY ERLY SAT MORNING. THE NAM IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL OF THE
THREE...AND WILL USE ITS GRIDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT TO TIME THE
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT NT 500HPA TROF SWINGS THROUGH FCA...AS 500HPA CUTOFF DROPS
SOUTH FM EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES AND IS DEEPENED BY
SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVES. THIS SYSTEM STAYS OVER THE MARITIMES AND
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS MASSIVE 500HPA
RIDGE OF 595DM BUILDS FM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLY INTO GRTLKS RGN.  SFC
HIGH BUILDS AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN GRTLKS...AND DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A STEADY BREEZY WHICH COULD BECOME BRISK SUNDAY
AFTN. MONDAY THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND RESULTS IN A BRIGHT SUNNY
DAY. AT LEAST THAT IS THE SCENARIO FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THE
MEAN ENSEMBLE AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN THE GEM...AND HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE PST FEW RUNS.

RIGHT NOW THIS MARITIME 500HPA CUT OFF STAYS WELL EAST OF FCA AND
HAS ON MOST PVS RUNS. HWVR GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS 5,7,8 HINT AT AN
OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT WOULD NOT BE PRETTY...CUT OFF LOW OFF
NJ...SFC LOW BELOW IT...CLOUDS...DAMP AND MUCH COOLER WITH LOW
GRADE POPS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL
NOT HAPPEN AND FORECAST REFLECTS THE OTHER 9 MEMBERS OF
ENSEMBLE...ITS MEAN...AND CONTINUITY. SO THE CUTOFFS POSSIBLE
RETROGRESSION IS THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE THAT COULD RUIN THE FINE
FAIR WEATHER EFP. THEN THERES THE OUTLIER ON THE EAST WITH THE
CUTOFF WAY OUT IN NORTH ATLC AND THE 500HPA RIDGE AXIS OVER US AND
WARMER THAN FCST. WILL POPULATED DAYS 5 TO 8 WITH GMOS WITH A FAIR
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHEAST OF AREA. NO WX AND LIGHT WINDS THOUGH THURSDAY. SOME
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KGFL WHERE IFR IS
POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY
AT BAY UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
REGION. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING KGFL WHERE
CIRRUS SHIELD WILL BE THINNEST AND BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI THRU SAT...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. THE MUCH
WEAKENED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.  OVERALL...NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN STEM RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TO CLOSE AUGUST.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY STATE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN LONG ISLAND INTO EXTREME SW CT...BUT EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN
S OF THE REGION. MIGHT SEE A FEW PATCHES SNEAK INTO THE CT VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AS SKIES WILL REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER A CHILLY START...WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE 70S. WITH A
N-NE FLOW...MAY STAY A BIT COOLER ON THE OUTER CAPE...WITH A FEW
READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH NE TO THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY BY
EVENING. HOWEVER...RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED AS BLOCKING PATTERN
/CUTOFF LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA/ REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH A
MORE NE FLOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE A BIT. WILL STILL SEE SOME UPPER
40S OVER SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE E COAST.

THURSDAY...RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH SLOWLY RETREATS NE DURING
THE DAY AS MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF FAY WORK ACROSS MID ATLC
STATES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO TEMPS WILL BE
MODIFIED SOMEWHAT. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TO
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80+ READINGS OVER THE CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
27/00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF MAIN FEATURES. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE FASTER THAN
THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...AND A DEVELOPING BLOCK IN THE MID LEVELS...THINKING THE
SLOWER TIMING IS BEST AT THIS POINT. WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
MINIMIZE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ERRORS.

NOT MUCH GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THE MAIN
PLAYER THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. 00Z MODELS TRYING TO BRING THE
REMNANTS OF FAY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT EXPECT THIS
SYSTEM TO BE SHEARED OUT...THEN SENT OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LEAVES THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD CROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AS EARLY AS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK FOR RIP CURRENTS...A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA IS EXPECTED TO SEND EAST SWELLS TOWARD THE MA COAST BY
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN
AN INCREASED RISK OF HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST-FACING
BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. LCL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE BETWEEN 15Z-18Z.
OTHERWISE...CIRRUS CLOUDS AT WORST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KAQW-
KORH-KBID.

TONIGHT...VFR. LCL MVFR VSBYS IN GROUND FOG PATCHES ACROSS SHELTERED
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND BOGS AFTER 04Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LCL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IMPROVING
BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...NE WIND 1