[top]
000
FXUS61 KGYX 201859
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
AS THE HIGH WORKS ITS WAY OFFSHORE...IT WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPORTING A WARMER
...MOISTER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A FOLLOWING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
DISSIPATING CUMULUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS/MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE GONE WITH ZERO POPS AND
TEMPERATURES/WINDS ARE A BLEND MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP.
THIS SHOULD PUSH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ON
FRIDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN SATURDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
WARM INTO THE 80S.
THE THROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THAT TIME RANGE WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A SLOWER EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. IN ANY EVENT WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE THE FRONT. AT THIS
TIME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE TIME
PERIOD TO EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE TIMING
COULD CHANGE BASED ON LATER MODEL RUNS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 ON
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR 08Z-12Z.
LONG TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE NO WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY GUSTING TO 15-25 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO JUST OVER
25 KT BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION SO NOT PLANNING ON
SCA`S AT THIS TIME. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...WHEELER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KGYX 201333
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
JUST OFFSHORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WILL USHER IN MORE SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM...AND
WILL LKLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
IT WILL NOT BE THAT COMMON THIS MORNING.
DEEPENING SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MARITIMES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NE TOWARD LABRADOR TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NY
STATE. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER NRN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...WITH CONTINUED...BUT
WEAKENING CAA. MAV TEMPS WERE GENERALLY USED FOR MAXES...AND
THOSE WERE ABOUT 3-5F BLO NORMAL. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY...SO
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCT SC IN THE MTNS...DIMINISHING AS THEY HEAD
TOWARD THE COAST IN DOWNSLOPE.
930 AM UPDATE...NICE DAY UNDERWAY. CURRENT SAT PIX SHOWING A FEW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE AND A FRESH WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE. NO ZONE
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND
WILL SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. GIVEN WEAKENING EXPECT MORE AND
EARLIER DECOUPLING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.
ONLY REAL FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE 1ST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH WED NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED INTERIOR
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR 08Z-12Z.
MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THU MORNING.
LONG TERM...ASIDE FROM FROM MORNING VALLEY FOG...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NW WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT...IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. EXPECT THEM TO FLARE UP A BIT
AFTER THE SUN RISES...BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT....OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 200654
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
JUST OFFSHORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WILL USHER IN MORE SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM...AND
WILL LKLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
IT WILL NOT BE THAT COMMON THIS MORNING.
DEEPENING SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MARITIMES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NE TOWARD LABRADOR TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NY
STATE. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER NRN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...WITH CONTINUED...BUT
WEAKENING CAA. MAV TEMPS WERE GENERALLY USED FOR MAXES...AND
THOSE WERE ABOUT 3-5F BLO NORMAL. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY...SO
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCT SC IN THE MTNS...DIMINISHING AS THEY HEAD
TOWARD THE COAST IN DOWNSLOPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND
WILL SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. GIVEN WEAKENING EXPECT MORE AND
EARLIER DECOUPLING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.
ONLY REAL FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE 1ST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH WED NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED INTERIOR
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR 08Z-12Z.
MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THU MORNING.
LONG TERM...ASIDE FROM FROM MORNING VALLEY FOG...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NW WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT...IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. EXPECT THEM TO FLARE UP A BIT
AFTER THE SUN RISES...BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT....OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...EJS
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...EJS
[top]
000
FXUS61 KCAR 200636
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
236 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING ANOTHER BREEZY AND COOL DAY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE HIGH DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. A LAYER OF CHILLY AIR
BETWEEN 5K AND 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STRATOCUMLUS LAYER
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE STRATOCU SHOULD
BREAK UP FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH. TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR EARLY UNDER
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS MAY THEN BEGIN
TO APPROACH TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST A THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. THIS RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WILL INITIALIZE THE POP GRIDS WITH A
COMBINATION OF NAM12...GFS40 AND SREF. SKY GRIDS ALSO GENERATED
WITH A MODEL COMBINATION. NO QPF EXPECT THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WIND GRIDS CREATED WITH THE GMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THRU THE DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE POPULATED GRIDS FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH GMOS. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO LOWER POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER FIT
POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
RESULT IN SOME TURBULANCE TODAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE WIND GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. WILL LOWER WIND SPEEDS 1 TO 3 KNOTS SINCE
A STRONG MARINE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 53 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. FOR WAVES: WILL INITIALIZE WITH WNA. BASED ON
SPECTRAL DATA TO PARTITION WAVE GROUPS APPEARS WIND WAVE OVER DONE
GIVEN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. LONG PERIOD WAVE LOOKS REASONABLE AND
WILL KEEP THIS AS UPPER LIMIT OF WAVE HEIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/MIGNONE
000
FXUS61 KCAR 200206
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1006 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS VERY WARM AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THE HIGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA ATTM. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING A REINFORCING AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN GASPE PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ELSEWHERE THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO REACH
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY FROM THE WESTERN GASPE PENINSULA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRID DATABASE TO REFLECT THE ABOVE CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RETURN PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TRANSPORTING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THEN WARM TO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NORTH WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THERE WILL THEN BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 200121
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER CLOSED LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL
WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH WINDS SLACKENING UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...SO
RADIATION FOG FORMATION MAY BE LATER OR NOT AT ALL IN THE HIGH
ELEVATION VALLEYS. FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT MAINLY
INTACT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES/WINDS
A BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST PARAMETERS AND POPS A BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIKE AUGUST
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON 12Z MODEL TIMING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEY
ISOLATED/PATCHY FOG LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR 08Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...LOOK FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE COME UP TO 15 TO 20KT IN THE WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS. HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE
GRIDDED PRODUCTS BUT FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED SO WILL OPT TO NOT RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STJEAN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191939
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY WARM
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THE HIGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ESP TONIGHT W/COLD
AIRMASS SET TO SEEP INTO THE CWA.
DECIDED ON USING THE CARWRF FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT IS
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION PRETTY WELL. AFT THAT...TOOK THE
GMOS W/ADJUSTMENTS. AS FAR PRECIP CHCS...TOOK THE CARWRF AND SREF
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN WENT W/THE GFS40 AND SREF. SKY
GRIDS ARE A REFLECTION OF THE GFS AND NAM12.
AREA OF SHOWERS AFFECTING DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL E AND SHOULD BE WELL OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z. UPPER TROF
SHOWING WELL ON BOTH THE IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SWING ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT AND WILL EXIT TO THE E ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE COLUMN W/WEAK FORCING WILL LEAD TO ISOLD
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING W/THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR N AND NW TIER RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER.
12Z UA SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE AVBL AT 850MB EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
BACK TO JAMES BAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT AND
THEN CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W. THIS
COMBINED W/NW WINDS STAYING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO LOW. THEREFORE...TOOK THE PREV MIN TEMPS AND
BACKED THEM DOWN ANOTHER CATEGORY POINTING TO LOW 40S IN THE FAR N
AND W AND MID 40S ACROSS ERN ZONES OF MEZ001>006 AND ALSO 10.
EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPS ESP CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND W/THAT COOLER AIR
SEEPING SE...TEMPS COULD FALL A BIT QUICKER THAT WHAT IS
ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON WEDNESDAY BUT W/CWA STILL UNDER SOME
CYCLONIC FLOW AND BRISK NW WINDS...READINGS WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TRANSPORTING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THEN WARM TO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NORTH WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HELD ONTO VFR RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS 10-20 MPH IN THE BLYR
WILL LEAD TO A CHOP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THERE WILL THEN BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP TONIGHT TO
SPEEDS OF 15 KTS OR SO THROUGH EARLY WED AND THEN GRADIENT LOOSENS
LEADING TO SPEEDS DROPPING OFF. KEPT SEAS AROUND 3 FT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191829
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER CLOSED LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE LOCATED
OVER MIDWEST WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACHES FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CRESTING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...
AT WHICH TIME RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS REGION LATER MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE!
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MORE NICE...ALBEIT A BIT COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
TRADITIONAL SHELTERED VALLEYS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 40...WITH SOME
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES/WINDS A BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST
PARAMETERS AND POPS A BLEND OF MAV/CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIKE AUGUST
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON 12Z MODEL TIMING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEY
ISOLATED/PATCHY FOG LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR 08Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...LOOK FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...WHEELER
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191542
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1137 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY WARM AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE HIGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BEEFED UP WORDING FOR HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS
AND PUT POPS UP TO 100% THROUGH 17Z AND THEN WIND THEM DOWN.
SREF LOOKING REAL GOOD MATCHING WELL W/THE CARWRF AND RADAR MOSAIC.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. HOWEVER...HUNG ONTO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EXTREME AS COLD POOL MOVES INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND SHOWERS
EXIT THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST EVENING WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL USHER IN A COOL SEPTEMBER
LIKE AIRMASS TODAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 60S UP NORTH TO
NEAR 70 DOWNEAST. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
DOWNEAST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...OPNL MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SYSTEMS...BY ABOUT 6
HRS OR SO...THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY FOR THIS PD. THE RESULT WILL BE
CLDS LINGERING ACROSS NRN AREAS WED...WITH ISOLD SHWRS POSSIBLE
FAR N. DAYTIME WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS WILL KEEP HI TEMPS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFT
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLDS WED EVE AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT...A WARM
ADVCN HI/MID CLD BAND WILL APCH FROM THE W AS MUCH WARMER AIR
FIRST MAKES ITS PRESENCE ALF. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES OR
ISOLD SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR N THU MORN AS THE CLD BAND MOVES E
ACROSS THE FA. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS THU SHOULD RECOVER BY NEARLY
10 DEGREES FROM WED AS SUNSHINE ALG WITH 925 TO 850 MB TEMPS
INCREASE DURING THE AFT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE STRONG RIDGE REACHING MAX AMPLITUDE BY FRI
EVE WITH ALL OF THE FA XPCTD TO EXCEED 588 DM AT 500 MB. WITH THE
SFC RIDGE SETTING UP NEAR CAPE COD...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR
STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WARMING WITH HI TEMPS LATE FRI AFT WELL IN THE
80S AND EVEN APCHG 90 DEG F OVR E CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
AFT A MILD NGT FRI NGT...THE CONSENSUS OF TH MODELS INDICATE THE
RIDGE REMAINING VERY STRONG OVR OUR FA ON SAT...SO HI TEMPS SHOULD
REACH AS WARM...IF NOT EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES F WARMER THAN FRI.
WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GRIDDED GFS MOS AND DERIVED HI
TEMPS...BY ADDING 14 DEG C T PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPS FRI AND SAT
AFT.
S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON
SUN... ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APCH WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE
AFT/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THIS FRONT
BETWEEN THE FASTER 00Z GFS AND PRIOR 12Z ECMWF...WHICH WAS ABOUT
12 HRS SLOWER. WE TOOK A BLEND OF TIMING BETWEEN BOTH MODELS...
PERHAPS STILL LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...SO MAX POPS
INDICATED WITH ANY SHWRS/TSTMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED DID NOT EXCEED
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE OF NEAR 40 PERCENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. BOTH OPNL MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING
UPPER TROF APCH THE FA BEHIND THE SFC COLD FONT MON...SO WE KEPT
SHWR CHCS GOING ACROSS NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA AND HI TEMPS
SOMEWHAT COOLER MON THAN INDICATED FOR SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR TURBULENCE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VFR
ANTICIPATED WED THRU SAT...WITH PERHAPS BRIEF HI MVFR CLGS AT KCAR
AND KPQI WED MORN WITH INSTABILITY SC PRIOR TO CLD BASES LIFTING WITH
SFC HTG BY LATE TUE MORN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK. WE USED WW3 FOR WV HTS...LOWERED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/SREF INCLUDING BIAS
CORRECTED FIELDS FOR WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/VJN
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191340
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BRINGING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY MID MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND SOONER IN THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP. MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED FOR MAX TEMPS.
930 AM UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING OUT OF
NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THIS EDGE MARKS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST AND THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BEFORE NOONTIME. PER CURRENT SAT PIX...LOOKS LIKE SHARP
CLEARING LINE 1 TO 2 HOURS BEHIND BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...
SO EXPECT TO SEE SUNSHINE OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SECTIONS BY
NOONTIME AND THAT TREND WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE COAST BY
ROUGHLY MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE WITH
12Z OBS WITH NEXT GRID UPDATE EXPECTED TO BE WITH THE 15Z OBS.
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS AS THEY MAY BECOME A TAD GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SUNSHINE MIXED THINGS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A VERY DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
AIR MASS TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A VERY COOL NIGHT IN STORE AS
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. FWC/MAV TEMPS BOTH LOOKED REASONABLE AND USED A
BLEND OF THE TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WED AND HEADS
SLOWLY EAST. THIS INITIALLY PUTS CWA UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON
WED...AND ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED CAA THRU THE DAY. WED WILL SEEM
MORE LIKE A MID-LATE SEPTEMBER DAY THAN MID-AUGUST...WITH A NW
BREEZE AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...RIDGING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILD IN FOR THE END OF WEEK INTO SAT...WITH
SOME WARMING AS RIDGE BUILDS AND SOME WARM AIR SNEAKS IN AT MID
LEVELS...SO TEMPS WILL WILL GO FROM BLO NORMAL WED TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRI/SAT...AND MAYBE EVEN INTO SUN. FAIRLY LARGE...BUT
PROGRESSIVE...TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN 500MB RIDGE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH SFC FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ALL MID-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY
7.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY 12Z AND THEN MOVES
RAPIDLY E BY LATER IN THE MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHWRS THRU MID
MRNG OVR SRN/ERN AREAS MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW MVFR CONDS. BY LATE MRNG
ALL AREAS BECOME VFR AS A MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VALLEY
FOG AT KLEB/KCON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191247
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
847 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY WARM AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE HIGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZFP INCREASE THE PRECIP CHCS ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. SREF MATCHING WELL
AND WAS USED AS THE BACKGROUND FOR THE POPS. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT
BY 18Z. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AS WELL. HOWEVER...HUNG ONTO MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EXTREME AS COLD POOL MOVES INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AND SHOWERS EXIT THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST EVENING WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL USHER IN A COOL SEPTEMBER
LIKE AIRMASS TODAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 60S UP NORTH TO
NEAR 70 DOWNEAST. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
DOWNEAST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...OPNL MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SYSTEMS...BY ABOUT 6
HRS OR SO...THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY FOR THIS PD. THE RESULT WILL BE
CLDS LINGERING ACROSS NRN AREAS WED...WITH ISOLD SHWRS POSSIBLE
FAR N. DAYTIME WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS WILL KEEP HI TEMPS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFT
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLDS WED EVE AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT...A WARM
ADVCN HI/MID CLD BAND WILL APCH FROM THE W AS MUCH WARMER AIR
FIRST MAKES ITS PRESENCE ALF. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES OR
ISOLD SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR N THU MORN AS THE CLD BAND MOVES E
ACROSS THE FA. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS THU SHOULD RECOVER BY NEARLY
10 DEGREES FROM WED AS SUNSHINE ALG WITH 925 TO 850 MB TEMPS
INCREASE DURING THE AFT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE STRONG RIDGE REACHING MAX AMPLITUDE BY FRI
EVE WITH ALL OF THE FA XPCTD TO EXCEED 588 DM AT 500 MB. WITH THE
SFC RIDGE SETTING UP NEAR CAPE COD...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR
STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WARMING WITH HI TEMPS LATE FRI AFT WELL IN THE
80S AND EVEN APCHG 90 DEG F OVR E CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
AFT A MILD NGT FRI NGT...THE CONSENSUS OF TH MODELS INDICATE THE
RIDGE REMAINING VERY STRONG OVR OUR FA ON SAT...SO HI TEMPS SHOULD
REACH AS WARM...IF NOT EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES F WARMER THAN FRI.
WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GRIDDED GFS MOS AND DERIVED HI
TEMPS...BY ADDING 14 DEG C T PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPS FRI AND SAT
AFT.
S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON
SUN... ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APCH WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE
AFT/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THIS FRONT
BETWEEN THE FASTER 00Z GFS AND PRIOR 12Z ECMWF...WHICH WAS ABOUT
12 HRS SLOWER. WE TOOK A BLEND OF TIMING BETWEEN BOTH MODELS...
PERHAPS STILL LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...SO MAX POPS
INDICATED WITH ANY SHWRS/TSTMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED DID NOT EXCEED
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE OF NEAR 40 PERCENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. BOTH OPNL MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING
UPPER TROF APCH THE FA BEHIND THE SFC COLD FONT MON...SO WE KEPT
SHWR CHCS GOING ACROSS NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA AND HI TEMPS
SOMEWHAT COOLER MON THAN INDICATED FOR SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR TURBULENCE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VFR
ANTICIPATED WED THRU SAT...WITH PERHAPS BRIEF HI MVFR CLGS AT KCAR
AND KPQI WED MORN WITH INSTABILITY SC PRIOR TO CLD BASES LIFTING WITH
SFC HTG BY LATE TUE MORN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK. WE USED WW3 FOR WV HTS...LOWERED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/SREF INCLUDING BIAS
CORRECTED FIELDS FOR WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/VJN
000
FXUS61 KGYX 190636
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BRINGING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY MID MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND SOONER IN THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP. MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A VERY DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
AIR MASS TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A VERY COOL NIGHT IN STORE AS
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. FWC/MAV TEMPS BOTH LOOKED REASONABLE AND USED A
BLEND OF THE TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WED AND HEADS
SLOWLY EAST. THIS INITIALLY PUTS CWA UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON
WED...AND ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED CAA THRU THE DAY. WED WILL SEEM
MORE LIKE A MID-LATE SEPTEMBER DAY THAN MID-AUGUST...WITH A NW
BREEZE AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...RIDGING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILD IN FOR THE END OF WEEK INTO SAT...WITH
SOME WARMING AS RIDGE BUILDS AND SOME WARM AIR SNEAKS IN AT MID
LEVELS...SO TEMPS WILL WILL GO FROM BLO NORMAL WED TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRI/SAT...AND MAYBE EVEN INTO SUN. FAIRLY LARGE...BUT
PROGRESSIVE...TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN 500MB RIDGE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH SFC FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ALL MID-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY
7.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY 12Z AND THEN MOVES
RAPIDLY E BY LATER IN THE MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHWRS THRU MID
MRNG OVR SRN/ERN AREAS MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW MVFR CONDS. BY LATE MRNG
ALL AREAS BECOME VFR AS A MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VALLEY
FOG AT KLEB/KCON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...CEMPA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190619
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
219 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY WARM AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE HIGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST EVENING WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL USHER IN A COOL SEPTEMBER
LIKE AIRMASS TODAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 60S UP NORTH TO
NEAR 70 DOWNEAST. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
DOWNEAST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVRALL...OPNL MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SYSTEMS...BY ABOUT 6
HRS OR SO...THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY FOR THIS PD. THE RESULT WILL BE
CLDS LINGERING ACROSS NRN AREAS WED...WITH ISOLD SHWRS POSSIBLE
FAR N. DAYTIME WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS WILL KEEP HI TEMPS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFT
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLDS WED EVE AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT...A WARM
ADVCN HI/MID CLD BAND WILL APCH FROM THE W AS MUCH WARMER AIR
FIRST MAKES ITS PRESENCE ALF. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES OR
ISOLD SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR N THU MORN AS THE CLD BAND MOVES E
ACROSS THE FA. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS THU SHOULD RECOVER BY NEARLY
10 DEGREES FROM WED AS SUNSHINE ALG WITH 925 TO 850 MB TEMPS
INCREASE DURING THE AFT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE STRONG RIDGE REACHING MAX AMPLITUDE BY FRI
EVE WITH ALL OF THE FA XPCTD TO EXCEED 588 DM AT 500 MB. WITH THE
SFC RIDGE SETTING UP NEAR CAPE COD...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR
STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WARMING WITH HI TEMPS LATE FRI AFT WELL IN THE
80S AND EVEN APCHG 90 DEG F OVR E CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
AFT A MILD NGT FRI NGT...THE CONSENSUS OF TH MODELS INDICATE THE
RIDGE REMAINING VERY STRONG OVR OUR FA ON SAT...SO HI TEMPS SHOULD
REACH AS WARM...IF NOT EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES F WARMER THAN FRI.
WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GRIDDED GFS MOS AND DERIVED HI
TEMPS...BY ADDING 14 DEG C T PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPS FRI AND SAT
AFT.
S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON
SUN... ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APCH WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE
AFT/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THIS FRONT
BETWEEN THE FASTER 00Z GFS AND PRIOR 12Z ECMWF...WHICH WAS ABOUT
12 HRS SLOWER. WE TOOK A BLEND OF TIMING BETWEEN BOTH MODELS...
PERHAPS STILL LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...SO MAX POPS
INDICATED WITH ANY SHWRS/TSTMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED DID NOT EXCEED
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE OF NEAR 40 PERCENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. BOTH OPNL MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING
UPPER TROF APCH THE FA BEHIND THE SFC COLD FONT MON...SO WE KEPT
SHWR CHCS GOING ACROSS NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA AND HI TEMPS
SOMEWHAT COOLER MON THAN INDICATED FOR SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR TURBULENCE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VFR
ANTICIPATED WED THRU SAT...WITH PERHAPS BRIEF HI MVFR CLGS AT KCAR
AND KPQI WED MORN WITH INSTABILITY SC PRIOR TO CLD BASES LIFTING WITH
SFC HTG BY LATE TUE MORN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK. WE USED WW3 FOR WV HTS...LOWERED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/SREF INCLUDING BIAS
CORRECTED FIELDS FOR WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/VJN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190244
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1044 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
LATE THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
A DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU TO
DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG COULD
LOCALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AT NIGHT DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190131
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
931 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION...A
GENERAL AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MAINE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION
WEAKENING...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS
AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG COULD
LOCALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AT NIGHT DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 182355
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
755 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NEAR TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. AIRMASS TO OUR WEST IS BECOMING UNSTABLE VERY RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN CAPPED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF
THIS HOLDS TRUE THEN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED.
SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH IS CURRENTLY UNDER WAY AND SHOULD GIVE US
SOME MORE INSIGHT INTO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP ALOFT. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
755 PM UPDATE...MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENTERING NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
CROSSING SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT WHICH WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE NEXT HOUR. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONITORING
ACTIVITY THAT IS ENTERING NORTHERN COOS COUNTY AT THIS TIME FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING. PLAN ON CONTINUING CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 838 THROUGH 10 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS OFFSHORE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY SUNNY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LIMITED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
WARMER/MOISTER AIR MASS MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND
AS AIR MASS MOISTENS UP AND WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION AT THIS
TIME...WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTION HOLDING OFF
TIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. USED HPC GUIDANCE TO POPULATE DATABASE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO FORM
DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. AREAS THAT SEE FOG CAN
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING SOME DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW...THOUGH NOTING THAT MISM1
BUOY GUSTING TO 23 KTS AT 23Z. WILL MENTION SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH NOT PLANNING ON SCA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 181946
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE TONIGHT
AND THEN CROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS IS CONVECTION W/MAIN LINE OF TSTMS FIRING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OTTAWA AND ONTARIO IN CANADA. THIS LINE IS
MOVG SLOWLY ENE PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST PROJECTIONS
WOULD BRING INITIAL CONVECTION W/SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BY AROUND 20Z OR SO AND THEN PROPAGATE
E INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS. DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS GETTING INTO SLY FLOW
WHICH HAS KEPT THINGS MORE STABLE ABV THE SFC. THIS AREA NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED AS AREA OF RICH DEWPOINTS POOLING ACROSS NYS AND VT
LOOK TO GET ADVECTED INTO THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY THE
EVENING. SPC IS MONITORING THE CWA FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CANNOT RULE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STMS TO ROTATE GIVEN LATEST NAM12/LAPS SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LLVLS. MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1500
J/KG ATTM ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/MLCAPES MORE AROUND 500-1000
J/KG JUST SW OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...TWEAKED THE GRIDS/ZFP TO REFLECT LIGHT ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABOVE REFERENCED SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PRESSES EAST. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO DOWNESAT MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MAINE EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER NORTHERN AND CTRL ZONES. VFR
CONDITIONS TO START BUT EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF TUESDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIDN
EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG
COULD LOCALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AT NIGHT DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
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