[top]
000
FXUS63 KDLH 050747
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
247 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SFC STATIONS REPORTING PATCHY FG THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
E TO SE WINDS. WEAK SFC LOW/TROUGH...CO-LOCATED WITH A POTENT SHORT
WAVE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER NE NO DAK...PUSHES E INTO
WRN MN. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE VORT MAX/SFC LOW HAS BROUGHT SHRA
TO NE NO DAK/NW MN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY NEAR
BJI LIFTING NORTH AND EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE KEPT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EWRD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE IRON RANGE AND INTO ADJACENT SRN CANADA...WITH WEAKER
FORCING IN THE SRN ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF COUNTIES TODAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE SCT AND GENERALLY LIGHT...RANGING FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH. KEPT ISOLD TSRA WORDING THIS AFTRN.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J OF CAPE DEVELOP THIS AFTN TO SUPPORT ISOLD -TSRA THIS
AFTN...REMAINING WELL BLW SVR LVLS.
THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE BROAD UPR LVL
TROUGH THROUGH SAT. KEPT THE 20-30 POP FOR SHRA THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER MN AND THE WRN GREAT LKS REGION LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THE CHC FOR SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WHILE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...SOME TEMPO MVFR-IFR CEILINGS
MAY OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MOST
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...INCLUDING KINL...WHERE THE BEST
OMEGA AND VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE FOUND. SOME THUNDER IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER
14Z...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE WEAK. WITH A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE NORTH...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY AT
KDLH...THROUGH MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR-VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN IN THESE AREAS...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. AS THE SFC LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE OF A BROAD
TROUGH...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LESSEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR KHYR THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN ALL AREAS AFTER 00Z...WITH JUST SOME
REMNANT SCATTERED CLOUDS.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 64 47 71 47 / 20 20 30 30
INL 64 46 67 40 / 60 20 30 40
BRD 65 45 68 46 / 20 10 20 40
HYR 68 45 70 43 / 10 30 20 30
ASX 65 48 69 44 / 10 30 30 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
GRANING/MELDE/BETTWY
[top]
000
FXUS63 KMPX 050738
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGHING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY POISED NEAR THE JUNCTION OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS EXPECTED. DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS ATOP THE AREA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY LOOK QUITE MINIMAL AS THE LOW AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AS THERE WAS SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT REALLY EXCITED ABOUT ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE THERE IS SOME MUCAPE DEPICTED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPIKING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A DEEPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
A PRETTY HEALTHY REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K
SURFACE...AS WELL AS MINIMAL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCALES.
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE
AFFECTED BY A WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...AND A
SECOND ONE THAT WILL SINK INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS...AHEAD OF THE
DRY AIR INTRUSION.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING SOME DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE..WITH SEVERAL DAYS
SEEING HIGHS BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
LOW CLOUDS FROM GUSTAV PULLING GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS WI.
HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FOG INTO SE MN AND
WRN WI THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS THAT REGION
AND AREA WAS CLOUD COVERED EARLIER SO T/TD SPREADS ARE NOW VERY
SHALLOW. HYDROLAPSE RATES PREDICTED BY GUIDANCE ARE RIGHT ON THE
FENCE FOR EITHER STRATUS OR FOG. STRATUS SEEMS MORE LIKELY AT EAU
WHERE THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING CLOUDS WHILE
FOG MORE LIKELY AT THE COOLER RNH. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING OVER
THE MN SITES FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. 1012MB LOW NEAR THE
JUNCTION OF ND/SD/MN WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH CTRL AND SRN MN. WITH THE HELP OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THIS FRI AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD THUNDER SEEM POSSIBLE OVER FAR
ERN AND SRN MN AND WRN WI. ON THU...THIS OCCURRED IN ERN SD DURING
THE SAME TIME OF DAY AND SAME PATTERN SYNOPTICALLY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR WRN WI SEEM SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ABR RAOB. SO DO HAVE
A PROB30 AT EAU FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY MINIMAL. LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND CONTINUE INTO SAT
MORNING.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
KAT/MTF
000
FXUS63 KMPX 050447
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1147 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MN AND SMALL PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL MN JUST AHEAD OF A
SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY INVADE OUR NW MN CWA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND TERMINATE BY MID EVENING. GFS40 ONCE AGAIN USED TO PAINT
THE FORECAST PICTURE...CONSIDERING ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
ITS DEPICTION OF THE REMNANTS OF INFAMOUS GUSTAV.
LOOK FOR A SERIES OF 50H TROFS TO TRAVERSE MN AND WI DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USED 300K ISENTROPIC ANAL AND 1000-850MB SLICE
OF THETA E ADVECTION TO DETERMINE TIMING AND PERCENTAGE CHANCES
OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LACKING
AS THESE SHORT WAVES TREK THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY MORNING PER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PER 250MB
DIVERGENCE THEMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL CWA WIDE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...WITH 5 TO 8 DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE DAYS AND NIGHTS.
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF POPS ARISES ON WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP EAST OF A 999MB SURFACE CYCLONE IN
SODAK. COULD BE A SOAKER SETTING UP...AS QPF INDICATING A ONE TO 2.5
INCH SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN FA BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.
DP/DT PER GFS40 AND EUROPEAN MODEL BOTH ADAMANT ON BOTH WARM FRONTAL
POSITION...AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT A TAD EARLY TO PINPOINT...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS MN FA EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WAVE
FILLS AS IT PROCEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT PROCEEDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SEEN ENTERING
SODAK. LOW INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD MIRROR QPF AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THIS
WEEKEND`S ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
LOW CLOUDS FROM GUSTAV PULLING GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS WI.
HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FOG INTO SE MN AND
WRN WI THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS THAT REGION
AND AREA WAS CLOUD COVERED EARLIER SO T/TD SPREADS ARE NOW VERY
SHALLOW. HYDROLAPSE RATES PREDICTED BY GUIDANCE ARE RIGHT ON THE
FENCE FOR EITHER STRATUS OR FOG. STRATUS SEEMS MORE LIKELY AT EAU
WHERE THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING CLOUDS WHILE
FOG MORE LIKELY AT THE COOLER RNH. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING OVER
THE MN SITES FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. 1012MB LOW NEAR THE
JUNCTION OF ND/SD/MN WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH CTRL AND SRN MN. WITH THE HELP OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THIS FRI AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD THUNDER SEEM POSSIBLE OVER FAR
ERN AND SRN MN AND WRN WI. ON THU...THIS OCCURRED IN ERN SD DURING
THE SAME TIME OF DAY AND SAME PATTERN SYNOPTICALLY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR WRN WI SEEM SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ABR RAOB. SO DO HAVE
A PROB30 AT EAU FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY MINIMAL. LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND CONTINUE INTO SAT
MORNING.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AJZ/MTF
000
FXUS63 KDLH 050254
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED. WHILE SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING WEST OF OUR CWA...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO FUNNELS DRIER
MID AND LOW LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN MN. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THIS EVENING. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...MAINLY TO RAISE THEM SOME...PARTICULARLY
OVER KOOCH...ITASCA...AND CASS COUNTIES. ENHANCED PVA AND
INCREASING OMEGA...AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER EASTERN
NODAK SHOULD BRING MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP TO THESE AREAS...MAINLY
AFTER 09Z. THERE WAS SOME THUNDER EARLIER...AS FAR EAST AS
KFGN...BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN WEAK AND NOT EXPECTING
ANY THUNDER OVERNIGHT.
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES.
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT AROUND 11 PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS REMAINS OF
GUSTAV EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS CTRL GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AS ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW FROM SFC HIGH WEDGES INTO
REGION FROM ONTARIO. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PLODDING ACROSS CTRL
DAKOTAS WITH AREA OF PRECIP IN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN
295/300K LAYER.
TONIGHT...GFS/SREF/NAM/EC IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NE TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COND PRESS DEFICITS LOWER OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SFC LOW. INHERITED GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BEST CHANCE OF
POPS/QPF OVER WRN CWA IN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE. MAY SEE SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR WISC ZONES AS BUFKIT UPS
FOG PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT HYDROLAPSE INCREASES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST
500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TURBULENT FLOW IS LIMITED AS INDICATED BY
MODIFIED RICHARDSON NUMBER.
TOMORROW...MID LVL TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH INCREASING LAYER OF
OMEGA AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THIS SEEMS
TO BE OFFSET BY DECREASING BDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE AS SFC LOW OPENS
INTO A BROAD TROUGH.CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RATHER LIMITED SO HAVE
KEPT TWR MENTION IN THE ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
EXTENDED...SAT THRU MONDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH POP/CLOUD FCST
CHALLENGES DUE TO LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING. PWATS AND 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT ANOMALIES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS MEANS
UNFORTUNATELY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS THROUGHOUT PERIOD. LATER
GUIDANCE MAY ALLOW FOR REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNALS DEVELOP.
AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION AT KDLH...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CONDS.
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR WITH FOG AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS MOISTURE WILL INFILTRATE INLAND AREAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NRN TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 44 64 48 / 10 10 20 20
INL 61 43 64 47 / 10 50 50 20
BRD 66 47 67 47 / 30 30 20 10
HYR 65 42 68 47 / 10 10 10 20
ASX 61 44 64 49 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ143-
LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.
$$
BETTWY
000
FXUS63 KMPX 042353
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKELS OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MN AND SMALL PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL MN JUST AHEAD OF A
SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY INVADE OUR NW MN CWA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND TERMINATE BY MID EVENING. GFS40 ONCE AGAIN USED TO PAINT
THE FORECAST PICTURE...CONSIDERING ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
ITS DEPICTION OF THE REMNANTS OF INFAMOUS GUSTAV.
LOOK FOR A SERIES OF 50H TROFS TO TRAVERSE MN AND WI DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USED 300K ISENTROPIC ANAL AND 1000-850MB SLICE
OF THETA E ADVECTION TO DETERMINE TIMING AND PERCENTAGE CHANCES
OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LACKING
AS THESE SHORT WAVES TREK THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY MORNING PER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PER 250MB
DIVERGENCE THEMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL CWA WIDE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...WITH 5 TO 8 DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE DAYS AND NIGHTS.
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF POPS ARISES ON WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP EAST OF A 999MB SURFACE CYCLONE IN
SODAK. COULD BE A SOAKER SETTING UP...AS QPF INDICATING A ONE TO 2.5
INCH SWATH OF PRECIPIATION ACROSS EASTERN FA BY DAWN ON THURDAY.
DP/DT PER GFS40 AND EUROPEAN MODEL BOTH ADAMANT ON BOTH WARM FRONTAL
POSTION...AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT A TAD EARLY TO PINPOINT...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SUPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS MN FA EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WAVE
FILLS AS IT PROCEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN
SIGNFICANTLY ONCE IT PROCEEDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SEEN ENTERING
SODAK. LOW INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD MIRROR QPF AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THIS
WEEKEND`S ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 TO 5000 FT EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN FEW CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OTHER ONE
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW PRES SYSTEM/SFC TROUGH OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE MN OVERNIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW -SHRA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND CEILING LOWERING TO AROUND 4-5K
FEET AGL IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST UNDER 5 KNOTS
THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AJZ/
000
FXUS63 KMPX 042133
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKELS OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MN AND SMALL PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL MN JUST AHEAD OF A
SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY INVADE OUR NW MN CWA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND TERMINATE BY MID EVENING. GFS40 ONCE AGAIN USED TO PAINT
THE FORECAST PICTURE...CONSIDERING ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
ITS DEPICTION OF THE REMNANTS OF INFAMOUS GUSTAV.
LOOK FOR A SERIES OF 50H TROFS TO TRAVERSE MN AND WI DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USED 300K ISENTROPIC ANAL AND 1000-850MB SLICE
OF THETA E ADVECTION TO DETERMINE TIMING AND PERCENTAGE CHANCES
OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LACKING
AS THESE SHORT WAVES TREK THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY MORNING PER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PER 250MB
DIVERGENCE THEMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL CWA WIDE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...WITH 5 TO 8 DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE DAYS AND NIGHTS.
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF POPS ARISES ON WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP EAST OF A 999MB SURFACE CYCLONE IN
SODAK. COULD BE A SOAKER SETTING UP...AS QPF INDICATING A ONE TO 2.5
INCH SWATH OF PRECIPIATION ACROSS EASTERN FA BY DAWN ON THURDAY.
DP/DT PER GFS40 AND EUROPEAN MODEL BOTH ADAMANT ON BOTH WARM FRONTAL
POSTION...AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT A TAD EARLY TO PINPOINT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED
TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS MN FA EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WAVE FILLS AS
IT PROCEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNFICANTLY ONCE
IT PROCEEDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SEEN ENTERING SODAK. LOW INTENSITY OF
THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD MIRROR QPF
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THIS WEEKEND`S ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CEILINGS IN THE 1500 TO 3000 FOOT RANGE TO CONTINUE FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHEAST. 12Z NAM 295K
THETA SURFACE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AND SHOWS CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME. SHORT
WAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WILL BE THE BKN-OVC VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROF STILL PROJECTED TO PASS
ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. SREF 3HR POP PROBABILITIES NIL WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROF.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/AJZ
000
FXUS63 KMPX 042100
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN
AND SMALL PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL MN JUST AHEAD OF A SOMEWHAT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY INVADE OUR NW MN CWA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND TERMINATE BY MID EVENING. GFS40 ONCE AGAIN USED TO PAINT
THE FORECAST PICTURE...CONSIDERING ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...
AND ITS DEPICTION OF THE REMNANTS OF INFAMOUS GUSTAV.
LOOK FOR A SERIES OF 50H TROFS TO TRAVERSE MN AND WI DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USED 300K ISENTROPIC ANAL AND 1000-850MB SLICE
OF THETA E ADVECTION TO DETERMINE TIMING AND PERCENTAGE CHANCES
OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LACKING
AS THESE SHORT WAVES TREK THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY MORNING PER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITAS AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PER 250MB
DIVERGENCE THEMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL CWA WIDE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP
EAST OF A 999MB SURFACE CYCLONE IN SODAK.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CEILINGS IN THE 1500 TO 3000 FOOT RANGE TO CONTINUE FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHEAST. 12Z NAM 295K
THETA SURFACE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AND SHOWS CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME. SHORT
WAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WILL BE THE BKN-OVC VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROF STILL PROJECTED TO PASS
ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. SREF 3HR POP PROBABILITIES NIL WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROF.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/AJZ
000
FXUS63 KDLH 042006
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
306 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS REMAINS OF
GUSTAV EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS CTRL GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AS ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW FROM SFC HIGH WEDGES INTO
REGION FROM ONTARIO. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PLODDING ACROSS CTRL
DAKOTAS WITH AREA OF PRECIP IN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN
295/300K LAYER.
TONIGHT...GFS/SREF/NAM/EC IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NE TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COND PRESS DEFICITS LOWER OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SFC LOW. INHERITED GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BEST CHANCE OF
POPS/QPF OVER WRN CWA IN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE. MAY SEE SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR WISC ZONES AS BUFKIT UPS
FOG PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT HYDROLAPSE INCREASES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST
500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TURBULENT FLOW IS LIMITED AS INDICATED BY
MODIFIED RICHARDSON NUMBER.
TOMORROW...MID LVL TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH INCREASING LAYER OF
OMEGA AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THIS SEEMS
TO BE OFFSET BY DECREASING BDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE AS SFC LOW OPENS
INTO A BROAD TROUGH.CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RATHER LIMITED SO HAVE
KEPT TWR MENTION IN THE ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
EXTENDED...SAT THRU MONDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH POP/CLOUD FCST
CHALLENGES DUE TO LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING. PWATS AND 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT ANOMALIES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS MEANS
UNFORTUNATELY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS THROUGHOUT PERIOD. LATER
GUIDANCE MAY ALLOW FOR REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNALS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION AT KDLH...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CONDS.
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR WITH FOG AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS MOISTURE WILL INFILTRATE INLAND AREAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NRN TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 64 48 69 / 10 20 20 30
INL 43 64 47 67 / 40 50 20 30
BRD 47 67 47 68 / 20 20 10 30
HYR 42 68 47 70 / 10 10 20 30
ASX 44 64 49 69 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-
LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.
$$
CANNON/LONKA/GSF
000
FXUS63 KMPX 041717
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CEILINGS IN THE 1500 TO 3000 FOOT RANGE TO CONTINUE FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHEAST. 12Z NAM 295K
THETA SURFACE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AND SHOWS CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME. SHORT
WAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WILL BE THE BKN-OVC VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROF STILL PROJECTED TO PASS
ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. SREF 3HR POP PROBABILITIES NIL WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROF.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM THU SEP 4 2008/
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS
SURROUND THE APPROACH OF GUSTAV/S REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH.
AT PRESENT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A POTENT AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
MINNESOTA...AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF
GUSTAV...NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
DENSE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM GUSTAV/S REMAINS HAS SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE TODAY PERIOD...MAINLY TEMPERATURES
AND POPS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN FREE OF SHOWERS FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY EAU CLAIRE AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES
POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY IT. THERE SHOULD BE A TIGHT CUT OFF IN
PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EXPECTED BAND...AND
LATEST NAM RUNS...ALONG WITH THE 03Z LOCAL LAPSWRF RUN...BRING
THAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCALES SUCH AS AUGUSTA AND CADOTT.
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
TONIGHT...NEXT MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ALREADY
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...APPROACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN...MAKING TIMING PRECIPITATION
BOUTS A BIT DIFFICULT...AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THESE TIMING CHALLENGES. AT
THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW A SURFACE LOW/FRONT AFFECTING MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AT THIS
TIME...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SINGLE DIGIT 850 MB TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/KAT
000
FXUS63 KDLH 041431
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
931 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY/WX GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING AS
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER DOMINATES ERN HALF OF CWA. BULK OF
GUSTAV MSTR WILL STAY SE OF CWA AS PREVIOUSLY FCST. SMALL AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE LIFTING ACROSS NRN CWA INTO ONTARIO WITH IR
IMAGERY SHOWING ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT. WILL KEEP SOME DRIZZLE
OVER NRN LAKE/COOK COUNTIES NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...SUB CLOUD
LAYER RELATIVELY DRY SO EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIP TODAY
ACROSS CWA. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/LOW LVL FEATURE
OVER NDAK WILL PUSH INTO NWRN CWA LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIG CHANGES TO PREV FCST. THE FA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE
BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PUSHING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TRACKING
E OVER THE DAKOTAS/SRN CANADA. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REMAINING ENERGY OF TD GUSTAV ROTATING OVER ARKANSAS...WHILE
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BROAD SHIELD OF RA HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
IA AND SRN WIS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE ASSOC
WITH GUSTAV LIFTS NORTH TODAY...REACHING THE SRN TIP OF LK
MICHIGAN...NEAR CHICAGO...THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW
FOR THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO OVER THE THE FAR SE CORNER OF
THE CWA...GENERALLY AFFECTING THE PARK FALLS/PHILLIPS AREA AND
EWRD. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR W AS A LINE FROM
ASHLAND...TO HAYWARD.
FOCUS TURNS TO VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL SHIFT E OVER THE DAKOTAS/SRN MANITOBA THIS AFTN/EVEN.
THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT AND WEAK
SFC LOW REFLECTION MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z FRI. KEPT SMALL POPS AFT
06Z TONIGHT IN THE WRN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR FORCING AND PVA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN VORT. RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA ON FRI AS THE UPR LVL TROUGH AND VORT MAX SWEEP OVER THE FA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LOSE IT`S INFLUENCE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFTS INTO INDIANA/ILLINOIS
TODAY AND AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD WILL COVER THE AREA EARLY...THEN EXPECT A MID
DECK TO FORM THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT...AND CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER
FURTHER...AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF MINNESOTA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
ANY RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 44 62 47 / 10 10 20 20
INL 64 43 63 46 / 10 30 30 20
BRD 67 47 68 46 / 10 20 20 20
HYR 63 42 68 46 / 10 10 10 20
ASX 61 44 64 48 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.
$$
CANNON
000
FXUS63 KMPX 041146
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
645 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS
SURROUND THE APPROACH OF GUSTAV/S REMAINS FROM THE SOTUH.
AT PRESENT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A POTENT AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
MINNESOTA...AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF
GUSTAV...NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
DENSE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM GUSTAV/S REMAINS HAS SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE TODAY PERIOD...MAINLY TEMPERATURES
AND POPS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN FREE OF SHOWERS FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY EAU CLAIRE AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES
POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY IT. THERE SHOULD BE A TIGHT CUT OFF IN
PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EXPECTED BAND...AND
LATEST NAM RUNS...ALONG WITH THE 03Z LOCAL LAPSWRF RUN...BRING
THAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCALES SUCH AS AUGUSTA AND CADOTT.
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
TONIGHT...NEXT MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ALREADY
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...APPROACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN...MAKING TIMING PRECIPITATION
BOUTS A BIT DIFFICULT...AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THESE TIMING CHALLENGES. AT
THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW A SURFACE LOW/FRONT AFFECTING MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AT THIS
TIME...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SINGLE DIGIT 850 MB TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FCST AREA IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...REMNANTS OF GUSTAV TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NEXT UPPER TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHEAST SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE KEAU AREA -SHRA MOVING IN LATE THIS MORNING.
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA/4-5000 FT/ AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV EXIT TO
THE EAST. OTHER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SMALL CHANCE -SHRA OVER NORTHERN
AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY...THEN MORE SOUTHWEST LATE OVER WESTERN TAF SITES AS DAKOTAS
TROUGH APPROACHES.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
KAT/DWE
000
FXUS63 KDLH 040813
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
313 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NO SIG CHANGES TO PREV FCST. THE FA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE
BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PUSHING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TRACKING
E OVER THE DAKOTAS/SRN CANADA. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REMAINING ENERGY OF TD GUSTAV ROTATING OVER ARKANSAS...WHILE
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BROAD SHIELD OF RA HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
IA AND SRN WIS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE ASSOC
WITH GUSTAV LIFTS NORTH TODAY...REACHING THE SRN TIP OF LK
MICHIGAN...NEAR CHICAGO...THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW
FOR THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO OVER THE THE FAR SE CORNER OF
THE CWA...GENERALLY AFFECTING THE PARK FALLS/PHILLIPS AREA AND
EWRD. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR W AS A LINE FROM
ASHLAND...TO HAYWARD.
FOCUS TURNS TO VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL SHIFT E OVER THE DAKOTAS/SRN MANITOBA THIS AFTN/EVEN.
THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT AND WEAK
SFC LOW REFLECTION MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z FRI. KEPT SMALL POPS AFT
06Z TONIGHT IN THE WRN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR FORCING AND PVA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN VORT. RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA ON FRI AS THE UPR LVL TROUGH AND VORT MAX SWEEP OVER THE FA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LOSE IT`S INFLUENCE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFTS INTO INDIANA/ILLINOIS
TODAY AND AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD WILL COVER THE AREA EARLY...THEN EXPECT A MID
DECK TO FORM THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT...AND CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER
FURTHER...AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF MINNESOTA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
ANY RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 44 62 47 / 10 10 20 20
INL 64 43 63 46 / 10 30 30 20
BRD 67 47 68 46 / 10 20 20 20
HYR 63 42 68 46 / 10 10 10 20
ASX 61 44 64 48 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.
$$
GRANING/MELDE
000
FXUS63 KMPX 040717
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
217 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS
SURROUND THE APPROACH OF GUSTAV/S REMAINS FROM THE SOTUH.
AT PRESENT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A POTENT AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
MINNESOTA...AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF
GUSTAV...NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
DENSE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM GUSTAV/S REMAINS HAS SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE TODAY PERIOD...MAINLY TEMPERATURES
AND POPS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN FREE OF SHOWERS FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY EAU CLAIRE AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES
POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY IT. THERE SHOULD BE A TIGHT CUT OFF IN
PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EXPECTED BAND...AND
LATEST NAM RUNS...ALONG WITH THE 03Z LOCAL LAPSWRF RUN...BRING
THAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCALES SUCH AS AUGUSTA AND CADOTT.
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
TONIGHT...NEXT MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ALREADY
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...APPROACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN...MAKING TIMING PRECIPITATION
BOUTS A BIT DIFFICULT...AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THESE TIMING CHALLENGES. AT
THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW A SURFACE LOW/FRONT AFFECTING MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AT THIS
TIME...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SINGLE DIGIT 850 MB TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SFC HI PRES RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV HAVE LIFTED NORTHWEST
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUD AND CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE 25 THOUSAND FEET AGL OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRES FM
GUSTAV LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KEAU. AS WINDS ABOVE THE SFC
TURN EASTERLY IN THE MORNING EXPECT AT LEAST FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 3000 FT TO CREEP INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH
THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER BEING 12000 FT OR HIGHER. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH FEW-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A BROKEN LAYER ABOVE 3000 OR 4000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY
ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW BUT DID MENTION IN THE TAFS TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY. SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KEAU
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AT
KEAU BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SITE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT ALLOWING
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO MOVE TO THE EAST BRINGING IMPROVING
SKY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BUT BE LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AS IT PASSES BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
TROUGH STARTING LATE TONIGHT NEAR KAXN AND ADVANCING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
KAT/JVM
000
FXUS63 KMPX 040504
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST REMAINS THE CHANCES OF RAIN
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES OUT THERE
DURING MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS
EARLIER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN RIDGING AND TROUGHINESS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. SO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MORESO WEDS MORNING SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT THIS FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI.
ABOVE THAT...BROKEN CIRROSTRATUS SHOULD BE STREAMING IN FROM THE
STILL VERY WELL-DEFINED REMNANTS OF GUSTAV. THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES
MORE MID-LATITUDE CHARACTERISTICS LATER WEDS...WITH PRECIP
SHIFTING MORESO ON THE ERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WRLY MID AND
UPPER FLOW. BEFORE THAT THOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED
ERLY UPGLIDE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES THU AFTN NEAR EAU CLAIRE AND MENOMONIE WI.
TEMPS IN WRN WI AND SE MN WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA THU...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WSW MID-LEVEL WARM
AND SLIGHTLY MOIST ADVECTION GRADUALLY CREEPS INTO WRN MN THU
NIGHT. AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI...NARROW
AXIS OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. ALSO COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLD THUNDER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH
RECEIVES REINFORCING SHOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEEMS LIKE IT
COULD BE AIR MASS TYPE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON
SAT...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS DURING FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEPT NORMALS. UNDER THE MID-LEVEL COOL TEMPS...SCT
TO BKN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE SEEM LIKELY.
NEXT WEEK...THE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL IS THE ONE OF PREFERENCE.
STILL LOOKS DRY MON AND TUES WITH SFC RIDGING AND DRY CANADIAN AIR
MASS IN PLACE. WARMING IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS 12Z ECMWF LONG WAVE PATTERN TRIES TO ESTABLISH A
TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SFC HI PRES RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV HAVE LIFTED NORTHWEST
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUD AND CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE 25 THOUSAND FEET AGL OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRES FM
GUSTAV LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KEAU. AS WINDS ABOVE THE SFC
TURN EASTERLY IN THE MORNING EXPECT AT LEAST FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 3000 FT TO CREEP INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH
THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER BEING 12000 FT OR HIGHER. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH FEW-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A BROKEN LAYER ABOVE 3000 OR 4000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY
ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW BUT DID MENTION IN THE TAFS TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY. SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KEAU
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AT
KEAU BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SITE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT ALLOWING
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO MOVE TO THE EAST BRINGING IMPROVING
SKY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BUT BE LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AS IT PASSES BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
TROUGH STARTING LATE TONIGHT NEAR KAXN AND ADVANCING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KMPX 032325
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.UPDATE...
ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST REMAINS THE CHANCES OF RAIN
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES OUT THERE
DURING MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS
EARLIER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN RIDGING AND TROUGHINESS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. SO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MORESO WEDS MORNING SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT THIS FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI.
ABOVE THAT...BROKEN CIRROSTRATUS SHOULD BE STREAMING IN FROM THE
STILL VERY WELL-DEFINED REMNANTS OF GUSTAV. THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES
MORE MID-LATITUDE CHARACTERISTICS LATER WEDS...WITH PRECIP
SHIFTING MORESO ON THE ERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WRLY MID AND
UPPER FLOW. BEFORE THAT THOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED
ERLY UPGLIDE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES THU AFTN NEAR EAU CLAIRE AND MENOMONIE WI.
TEMPS IN WRN WI AND SE MN WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA THU...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WSW MID-LEVEL WARM
AND SLIGHTLY MOIST ADVECTION GRADUALLY CREEPS INTO WRN MN THU
NIGHT. AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI...NARROW
AXIS OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. ALSO COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLD THUNDER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH
RECEIVES REINFORCING SHOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEEMS LIKE IT
COULD BE AIR MASS TYPE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON
SAT...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS DURING FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEPT NORMALS. UNDER THE MID-LEVEL COOL TEMPS...SCT
TO BKN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE SEEM LIKELY.
NEXT WEEK...THE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL IS THE ONE OF PREFERENCE.
STILL LOOKS DRY MON AND TUES WITH SFC RIDGING AND DRY CANADIAN AIR
MASS IN PLACE. WARMING IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS 12Z ECMWF LONG WAVE PATTERN TRIES TO ESTABLISH A
TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET AND WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS ONCE TROPICAL SYSTEM GUSTAV
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CEILINGS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA BUT IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW EXPANSIVE
ANY LOW LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE. AS WINDS ABOVE THE SFC TURN
EASTERLY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT AT LEAST FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 3000 FT TO CREEP INTO EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI WITH
THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER BEING 12000 FT OR HIGHER. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH FEW-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A BROKEN LAYER ABOVE 3000 OR 4000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI BUT THE CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW BUT DID MENTION IN THE TAFS TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY. SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER
CEILINGS AT KEAU BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE SITE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO MOVE TO THE EAST BRINGING
IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY
BUT BE LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AS IT PASSES
BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH STARTING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT NEAR KAXN AND ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
..MDB..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MTF/MDB
000
FXUS63 KDLH 032017
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU
FIELD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SENSIBLE HEATING LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER...AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT...SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MAINTAINED MENTION OF FROST ACROSS MAINLY IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. NAM LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS DO SHOW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND ADVECTING OFF THE LAKE
THURSDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTAV AND HAVE MAINTAINED 14 POPS ATTM FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT
ACROSS NW WI.
FORECAST ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
APPROACHING BROAD AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA PER
WATER VAPOR LOOP. POPS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS COLD POOL
PUSHES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
STAY RELATIVELY COOL AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER VORT
MAX AND COLD FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BR MAY FORM
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE IS LOW. HAVE A MENTION IN ONLY FOR KDLH.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 59 46 62 / 0 10 10 10
INL 38 64 43 63 / 0 10 20 30
BRD 42 67 46 67 / 0 10 20 20
HYR 38 63 42 68 / 0 10 10 10
ASX 41 62 44 63 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
LILES/GSF
000
FXUS63 KMPX 031939
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
239 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST REMAINS THE CHANCES OF RAIN
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES OUT THERE
DURING MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS
EARLIER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN RIDGING AND TROUGHINESS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. SO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MORESO WEDS MORNING SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT THIS FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI.
ABOVE THAT...BROKEN CIRROSTRATUS SHOULD BE STREAMING IN FROM THE
STILL VERY WELL-DEFINED REMNANTS OF GUSTAV. THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES
MORE MID-LATITUDE CHARACTERISTICS LATER WEDS...WITH PRECIP
SHIFTING MORESO ON THE ERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WRLY MID AND
UPPER FLOW. BEFORE THAT THOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED
ERLY UPGLIDE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES THU AFTN NEAR EAU CLAIRE AND MENOMONIE WI.
TEMPS IN WRN WI AND SE MN WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA THU...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WSW MID-LEVEL WARM
AND SLIGHTLY MOIST ADVECTION GRADUALLY CREEPS INTO WRN MN THU
NIGHT. AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI...NARROW
AXIS OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. ALSO COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLD THUNDER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH
RECEIVES REINFORCING SHOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEEMS LIKE IT
COULD BE AIR MASS TYPE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON
SAT...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS DURING FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEPT NORMALS. UNDER THE MID-LEVEL COOL TEMPS...SCT
TO BKN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE SEEM LIKELY.
NEXT WEEK...THE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL IS THE ONE OF PREFERENCE.
STILL LOOKS DRY MON AND TUES WITH SFC RIDGING AND DRY CANADIAN AIR
MASS IN PLACE. WARMING IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS 12Z ECMWF LONG WAVE PATTERN TRIES TO ESTABLISH A
TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ONLY A FEW CU OVER THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TURNING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND EASTERLY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV MOVES INTO MISSOURI.
BKN-OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
FROM KMSP ON EAST AND SOUTH AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. SMALL THREAT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW FOR KEAU BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REMAINING VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MTF/RAH
000
FXUS63 KMPX 031826
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
126 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ONLY A FEW CU OVER THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TURNING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND EASTERLY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV MOVES INTO MISSOURI.
BKN-OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
FROM KMSP ON EAST AND SOUTH AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. SMALL THREAT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW FOR KEAU BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REMAINING VFR.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
FORECAST CONCERNS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGHING INVADING THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING TO NOSE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY MOVES FARTHER FROM MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL SHAPE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD...CENTERING ITSELF
OVER MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SINGLE DIGIT 850 MB TEMPERATURES...
AND NEGATIVE STANDARDIZED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES...WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FALLING IN STEP WITH THOSE OF 24 HOURS
AGO...SHOWING THAT GUSTAV/S REMAINS WILL NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL NOT MOVE INTO IT.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION OF THE
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS LOOK FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...WITH GUSTAV/S REMAINS LOCKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN TO POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH JUST AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...WITH FORECAST BEST LIFTED INDICES
HOVERING NEAR ZERO. AGAIN...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/KAT
000
FXUS63 KDLH 031534
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1034 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE FOR TODAY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRATOCU DECK HAS
SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE...WHILE DIURNAL CU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. EXPECTED
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
PUSHING TO THE EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...ITS UPPER LOW IS
SLUGGISHLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE
HAS WORKED TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
OVER MUCH OF NE MN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE NAM12 AND RUC40 SUGGEST THAT SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY
STRATOCU...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE BORDERLAND AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD...BEFORE DECREASING
AFTER 18Z AS DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AREA THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AIR CURRENTLY
WORKING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER...WITH MAXES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. 85H TEMPS OF 2-4C AT 12Z TODAY WILL ONLY
WARM TO 3C-6C THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...EXPECTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE NAM12 CU RULE PAINTING VALUES OF -2 TO
-3 OVER PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD
GET QUITE COOL IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALSO FAVOR A
NORTHEAST FLOW...WHICH COULD ENHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE LAKE. AREAS THAT REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S. HAVE
MENTIONED AREAS OF FROST TO PORTIONS OF THE BORDERLAND AND
ARROWHEAD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TS GUSTAV ADVANCE NORTH
INTO IOWA. HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES. WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS
SKIRT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH SOME LIGHT QPF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM HAS BACKED OFF WITH ITS
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF QPF. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA.
GIVEN SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY NEAR THE LAKE. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE...BUT ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NW ZONES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO RATHER
WEAK...WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES ONLY APPROACHING
ZERO...SO THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS SEEMS QUITE REMOTE.
A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION...
LOW VFR CEILINGS COVERED PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WERE MAINLY SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION AND HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE COLD...SO EXPECT CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 64 43 62 45 / 10 0 10 10
INL 63 39 67 43 / 10 0 10 20
BRD 65 43 70 45 / 10 0 10 10
HYR 68 38 67 43 / 10 0 10 10
ASX 63 41 65 44 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.
$$
LILES
000
FXUS63 KMPX 031044
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIFTS
EASTWARD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE VEERING WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM WEST NORTHWEST AT THE CURRENT TIME TO
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING... NORTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AT THE CURRENT TIME... BUT IT SHOULDN/T MAKE
IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE MIXING WORKS TO ERODE DURING THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE CU/STRATOCU... BUT
WOULDN/T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN FEW-SCT CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA...
AND MAINLY JUST FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. IF ANY LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE VFR ANYWAY... SO GENERALLY WENT WITH JUST
SKC. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH PERHAPS SOME
HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 137 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/
FORECAST CONCERNS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGHING INVADING THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING TO NOSE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY MOVES FARTHER FROM MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL SHAPE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD...CENTERING ITSELF
OVER MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SINGLE DIGIT 850 MB TEMPERATURES...
AND NEGATIVE STANDARDIZED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES...WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FALLING IN STEP WITH THOSE OF 24 HOURS
AGO...SHOWING THAT GUSTAV/S REMAINS WILL NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL NOT MOVE INTO IT.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION OF THE
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS LOOK FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...WITH GUSTAV/S REMAINS LOCKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN TO POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH JUST AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...WITH FORECAST BEST LIFTED INDICES
HOVERING NEAR ZERO. AGAIN...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
TRH/KAT
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