[top]
000
FXUS63 KSGF 110805
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE TEENS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND ACCORDING TO
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. THE
GFS MOS SEEMS TO HAVE A WARM BIAS...SO HAVE UNDERCUT THESE VALUES
BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS COOLER
THAN THE GFS MOS VALUES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL GET
MIXED TO THE SURFACE CREATING BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE CONTINUED TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM IN THIS PACKAGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
LEAVING THE CWA DRY THROUGH THIS TIME. ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AND WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP KICK THE FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WISE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO DIE DOWN A
BIT AT BOTH TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 7
TO 10 KTS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z. BY THAT TIME...SUFFICIENT
MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO BEGIN INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND
DEVELOPING SOME GUSTINESS WHICH WILL LAST THOUGH SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM OUR HURRICANE OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AT THE JLN TAF SITE AFTER DARK WITH
2K FOOT WINDS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KLSX 110446
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/220 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ROTATE AROUND BASE OF THE TROF
TONIGHT. THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE UPPER FLOW OVERHEAD AS THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL EVENT. I CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF FROPA...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT.
SEASONAL COOL AUTUMN WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT AS SEVERAL
REINFORCING HIGHS MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO
ROUND OUT NEXT WEEK.
A HYDRO SIDE NOTE: MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A RESULT OF
THE SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT BEING LIFTED
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
EFFECTS THIS WILL HAVE ON THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/1028 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WINDS WILL BE SELY TONIGHT AND BECOME SSE
TOMORROW. SITES SHUD BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUS. CURRENT
CLOUD COVER HAS DELAYED FOG DEVELOPMENT SOME...BUT VISBYS SHUD GO
DOWN LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT ONLY SOME CU TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
TILLY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 59 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 5
QUINCY 53 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 5
COLUMBIA 54 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 5
JEFFERSON CITY 54 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 5
SALEM 52 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 5
FARMINGTON 51 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 110445
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO RISE AS LATEST WATER
VAPOR INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS
DECREASED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER WEATHER RELATED
FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MAY GET
MORE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS FROM HURRICANE NORBERT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAX 850/925
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATED AT LEAST LOW TO MID 80S WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...SO WILL KEEP AS IS. IN ADDITION...THERMO GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM...AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANA-FRONT OR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POST FRONTAL. THEREFORE...CONTINUED HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
AREA COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME
TUESDAY...HAVE DECREASE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER/HALF INCH. THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN
OVERALL LIFT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING DOMINATE.
JLT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO DIE DOWN A
BIT AT BOTH TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 7
TO 10 KTS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z. BY THAT TIME...SUFFICIENT
MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO BEGIN INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND
DEVELOPING SOME GUSTINESS WHICH WILL LAST THOUGH SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM OUR HURRICANE OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AT THE JLN TAF SITE AFTER DARK WITH
2K FOOT WINDS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 102344
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
644 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO RISE AS LATEST WATER
VAPOR INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS
DECREASED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER WEATHER RELATED
FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MAY GET
MORE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS FROM HURRICANE NORBERT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAX 850/925
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATED AT LEAST LOW TO MID 80S WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...SO WILL KEEP AS IS. IN ADDITION...THERMO GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM...AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANA-FRONT OR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POST FRONTAL. THEREFORE...CONTINUED HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
AREA COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME
TUESDAY...HAVE DECREASE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER/HALF INCH. THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN
OVERALL LIFT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING DOMINATE.
JLT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS PERHAPS DYING OFF JUST A
BIT. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN BY 15Z ON
SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 9 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. A SCATTERED LAYER OF HIGH CIRRUS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE
INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KEAX 102341
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 406 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ZIPPING
NORTHEAST INTO CWA SHOULD EXIT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER
VORTEX NOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL DOMINATE PATTERN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TIED TO THE WESTERN U.S. SYSTEM
WILL LIE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO REACH
CWA...POSSIBLY NOT REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE POST FRONTAL SO WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.
MODELS DO ABSORB ENERGY FROM DISSIPATING HURRICANE NORBERT AND EJECT
AN IMPULSE OR TWO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...ANY OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD DO NO MORE THAN INCREASE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE CWA. MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO MAX
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HAVE SOME CONCERN THEY MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM TOMORROW BASED COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND AIRMASS SHOULD WARM UP BY 1-2C AT 850MB.
WILL ATTRIBUTE TODAYS ACTION TO THE THICKER THAN EXPECTED HIGH
CLOUD COVER WHICH MOVED THROUGH.
MJ
MEDIUM RANGE (MON-FRI)...
EXTENT OF PRECIP CHCS REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...AS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
DEEP UPR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE TAKEN A STEP
BACKWARDS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
DIFFERING GREATLY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT CHUNK OF ENERGY
BREAKING OFF PRIMARY TROUGH AND RACING NE ON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD ALSO LEAVE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LEAVING MID-LVL FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT SLOWING
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ADVERTISES A DEEPER
UPPER TROUGH AND A PHASED NE DEPARTURE BY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT
WOULD LIKE TO STAY SIMILAR TO THE GEFS AND 12Z GEM WHICH ADVERTISE A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THAT OF THE ECMWF.
THIS BEING SAID...SFC FRONT WILL STILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A PHASED UPR TROUGH...THIS FRONT
MAY NOT PUSH THAT FAR EAST AND MAY IN FACT BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...REGARDLESS OF SFC
FEATURES...MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN FOCUSED WELL BEHIND SFC FRONT AS
SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS NW MISSOURI. LITTLE CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE TRIMMED EASTWARD
EXTENT OF LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AND HAVE UPPED POPS ON TUESDAY AS
WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER TROUGH
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN BELOW THEIR SEASONAL
NORMALS. READINGS WILL NOT BE DRIVEN SO MUCH BY CAA...BUT
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP COLDEST READINGS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
SPEED OF KICKER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF CANADA IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER AS
NEXT UPR TROUGH HEADS FOR THE AREA ON THU/FRI. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
IN EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. GIVEN A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DUX
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE SSE AROUND 16Z.
BOOKBINDER
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 102317
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
617 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/220 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ROTATE AROUND BASE OF THE TROF
TONIGHT. THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE UPPER FLOW OVERHEAD AS THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL EVENT. I CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF FROPA...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT.
SEASONAL COOL AUTUMN WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT AS SEVERAL
REINFORCING HIGHS MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO
ROUND OUT NEXT WEEK.
A HYDRO SIDE NOTE: MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A RESULT OF
THE SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT BEING LIFTED
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
EFFECTS THIS WILL HAVE ON THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/555 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV TAFS. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SUS. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT STL ALSO...BUT VISBYS SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM. WINDS
SHUD BECOME CALM AGAIN TONIGHT AT SUS AND HAVE TAKEN VISBYS DOWN
TO 2SM TONIGHT.
TILLY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 59 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 5
QUINCY 53 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 5
COLUMBIA 54 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 5
JEFFERSON CITY 54 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 5
SALEM 52 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 5
FARMINGTON 51 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 102107
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ZIPPING
NORTHEAST INTO CWA SHOULD EXIT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER
VORTEX NOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL DOMINATE PATTERN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TIED TO THE WESTERN U.S. SYSTEM
WILL LIE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO REACH
CWA...POSSIBLY NOT REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE POST FRONTAL SO WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.
MODELS DO ABSORB ENERGY FROM DISSIPATING HURRICANE NORBERT AND EJECT
AN IMPULSE OR TWO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...ANY OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD DO NO MORE THAN INCREASE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE CWA. MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO MAX
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HAVE SOME CONCERN THEY MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM TOMORROW BASED COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND AIRMASS SHOULD WARM UP BY 1-2C AT 850MB.
WILL ATTRIBUTE TODAYS ACTION TO THE THICKER THAN EXPECTED HIGH
CLOUD COVER WHICH MOVED THROUGH.
MJ
MEDIUM RANGE (MON-FRI)...
EXTENT OF PRECIP CHCS REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...AS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
DEEP UPR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE TAKEN A STEP
BACKWARDS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
DIFFERING GREATLY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT CHUNK OF ENERGY
BREAKING OFF PRIMARY TROUGH AND RACING NE ON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD ALSO LEAVE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LEAVING MID-LVL FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT SLOWING
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ADVERTISES A DEEPER
UPPER TROUGH AND A PHASED NE DEPARTURE BY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT
WOULD LIKE TO STAY SIMILAR TO THE GEFS AND 12Z GEM WHICH ADVERTISE A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THAT OF THE ECMWF.
THIS BEING SAID...SFC FRONT WILL STILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A PHASED UPR TROUGH...THIS FRONT
MAY NOT PUSH THAT FAR EAST AND MAY IN FACT BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...REGARDLESS OF SFC
FEATURES...MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN FOCUSED WELL BEHIND SFC FRONT AS
SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS NW MISSOURI. LITTLE CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE TRIMMED EASTWARD
EXTENT OF LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AND HAVE UPPED POPS ON TUESDAY AS
WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER TROUGH
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN BELOW THEIR SEASONAL
NORMALS. READINGS WILL NOT BE DRIVEN SO MUCH BY CAA...BUT
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP COLDEST READINGS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
SPEED OF KICKER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF CANADA IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER AS
NEXT UPR TROUGH HEADS FOR THE AREA ON THU/FRI. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
IN EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. GIVEN A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DUX
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.
LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 101925
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
225 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/220 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ROTATE AROUND BASE OF THE TROF
TONIGHT. THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE UPPER FLOW OVERHEAD AS THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL EVENT. I CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF FROPA...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT.
SEASONAL COOL AUTUMN WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT AS SEVERAL
REINFORCING HIGHS MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO
ROUND OUT NEXT WEEK.
A HYDRO SIDE NOTE: MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A RESULT OF
THE SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT BEING LIFTED
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
EFFECTS THIS WILL HAVE ON THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/1159 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG NEAR
KSUS AFTER AROUND 05Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THERE TONIGHT...BUT WITH PREVAILING SE FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG MAY BE CARRIED NORTHWESTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT. WILL INCLUDE A VCFG GROUP HOWEVER TO HINT
AT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FOG NEAR THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE WILL BRING
IN SCT030 TO MOST TAF SITES AFTER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS A LARGE
SLUG OF 900 MB MOISTURE SHOWN IN MODELS LURKS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
BROWNING
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 59 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 5
QUINCY 53 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 5
COLUMBIA 54 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 5
JEFFERSON CITY 54 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 5
SALEM 52 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 5
FARMINGTON 51 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 101833
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
133 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO RISE AS LATEST WATER
VAPOR INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS
DECREASED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER WEATHER RELATED
FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MAY GET
MORE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS FROM HURRICANE NORBERT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAX 850/925
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATED AT LEAST LOW TO MID 80S WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...SO WILL KEEP AS IS. IN ADDITION...THERMO GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM...AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANA-FRONT OR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POST FRONTAL. THEREFORE...CONTINUED HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
AREA COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME
TUESDAY...HAVE DECREASE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER/HALF INCH. THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN
OVERALL LIFT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING DOMINATE.
JLT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. CONSIDERED
ADDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...BUT THINK WINDS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 KFT AGL LAYER WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT WIND SHEAR
GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 101735
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...RESULTING IN SLIGHT WARMER
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THROUGH THE AREA. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...SO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LEAVING THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING...AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA BY LATE MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHOW LITTLE
MOVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE
DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY AND JUST KEPT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
WISE
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. CONSIDERED
ADDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...BUT THINK WINDS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 KFT AGL LAYER WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT WIND SHEAR
GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 101733
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US IN ADVANCE
OF AN UNSEASONABLY STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GREAT BASIN. WEST TO SW UPPER FLOW WAS ENHANCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH WITH AN INCREASING PRES GRAD ACR THE
PLAINS. SSE WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SLOWLY RISING DEWPOINTS AND WINDS GRADUALLY REDUCING THE DIURNAL
SPREAD. MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE BALLPARK AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SHORT TERM.
IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SLOWER WITH EWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS REASONABLE...WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. HOWEVER...AS PER COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES...HAVE RAISED POPS
INTO THE SLGT CHC/CHC CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.
LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 101707
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1207 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/342 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MASS FIELDS THRU THE
WEEKEND...WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST AS OVERALL PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH DEEP LO DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A
STUBBORN RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A RATHER STAGNANT SFC PATTERN AS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BE CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING FORCES TO THE W AND E...WITH A SELY FLOW
PREVAILING THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ONLY FINALLY VEERING AS A
CDFNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE SHOULD SEE DRY WX UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THIS CDFNT...AS A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU...THE FIRST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BUT WILL LACK STRENGTH AND LO LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE
SECOND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT WILL ONLY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO PARTS OF NERN/CNTRL MO AND WCNTRL IL WITH ONLY
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE PRIMED TO SUPPORT PCPN
THAN IT IS NOW...WITH MOISTURE THRU THE COLUMN INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY THANKS TO A TROPICAL FEED FROM THE ERN PAC AND THE
FRONT DELIVERING A DECENT FOCUS AT THE SFC AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF. BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS IT ALL NEEDS TO COME
TOGETHER...BUT IF IT DOES...SHOULD ULTIMATELY RESULT IN HI POPS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND H900-H875...
WILL ONLY SEE A SML INCR IN TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL FROM YESTERDAY BUT
SHOULD RESULT IN 1-2F INCR FROM PERSISTENCE...AND THEN A FURTHER
INCR IN TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS AN
ADDITIONAL 3F HIGHER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE 80-85F
RANGE. RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE STILL AROUND 90F...
SO WE/VE SEEN WARMER. TEMPS WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK EITHER
FROM CLOUD COVER OR FROPA.
TES
&&
.AVIATION...
/1159 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG NEAR
KSUS AFTER AROUND 05Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THERE TONIGHT...BUT WITH PREVAILING SE FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG MAY BE CARRIED NORTHWESTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT. WILL INCLUDE A VCFG GROUP HOWEVER TO HINT
AT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FOG NEAR THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE WILL BRING
IN SCT030 TO MOST TAF SITES AFTER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS A LARGE
SLUG OF 900 MB MOISTURE SHOWN IN MODELS LURKS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
BROWNING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 101142
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/342 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MASS FIELDS THRU THE
WEEKEND...WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST AS OVERALL PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH DEEP LO DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A
STUBBORN RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A RATHER STAGNANT SFC PATTERN AS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BE CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING FORCES TO THE W AND E...WITH A SELY FLOW
PREVAILING THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ONLY FINALLY VEERING AS A
CDFNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE SHOULD SEE DRY WX UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THIS CDFNT...AS A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU...THE FIRST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BUT WILL LACK STRENGTH AND LO LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE
SECOND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT WILL ONLY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO PARTS OF NERN/CNTRL MO AND WCNTRL IL WITH ONLY
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE PRIMED TO SUPPORT PCPN
THAN IT IS NOW...WITH MOISTURE THRU THE COLUMN INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY THANKS TO A TROPICAL FEED FROM THE ERN PAC AND THE
FRONT DELIVERING A DECENT FOCUS AT THE SFC AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF. BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS IT ALL NEEDS TO COME
TOGETHER...BUT IF IT DOES...SHOULD ULTIMATELY RESULT IN HI POPS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND H900-H875...
WILL ONLY SEE A SML INCR IN TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL FROM YESTERDAY BUT
SHOULD RESULT IN 1-2F INCR FROM PERSISTENCE...AND THEN A FURTHER
INCR IN TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS AN
ADDITIONAL 3F HIGHER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE 80-85F
RANGE. RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE STILL AROUND 90F...
SO WE/VE SEEN WARMER. TEMPS WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK EITHER
FROM CLOUD COVER OR FROPA.
TES
&&
.AVIATION...
/631 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATORS THIS MORNING WILL BE RIVER/LAKE FOG.
ANY AIRPORTS NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG IN
THE VICINITY. KSUS HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY VLIFR SINCE 06Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT JUST IN THE LAST 40 MINS OR SO DUE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PUSHING THE FOG AWAY FROM THE RUNWAY
COMPLEX. FOG PROBLEMS SHOULD CLEAR UP BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 101042
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...RESULTING IN SLIGHT WARMER
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THROUGH THE AREA. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...SO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LEAVING THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING...AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA BY LATE MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHOW LITTLE
MOVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE
DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY AND JUST KEPT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
WISE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WIND SHEAR AT JOPLIN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. OTHERWISE WILL
INCREASE SURFACE WINDS BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AS 850
MB WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE MIXING MAY BE SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE BY BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE OZARKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOK VERY DRY...SO DO
NOT EXPECT PRECIP AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORTS TODAY.
TERRY
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 100842
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/342 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MASS FIELDS THRU THE
WEEKEND...WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST AS OVERALL PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH DEEP LO DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A
STUBBORN RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A RATHER STAGNANT SFC PATTERN AS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BE CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING FORCES TO THE W AND E...WITH A SELY FLOW
PREVAILING THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ONLY FINALLY VEERING AS A
CDFNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE SHOULD SEE DRY WX UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THIS CDFNT...AS A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU...THE FIRST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BUT WILL LACK STRENGTH AND LO LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE
SECOND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT WILL ONLY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO PARTS OF NERN/CNTRL MO AND WCNTRL IL WITH ONLY
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE PRIMED TO SUPPORT PCPN
THAN IT IS NOW...WITH MOISTURE THRU THE COLUMN INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY THANKS TO A TROPICAL FEED FROM THE ERN PAC AND THE
FRONT DELIVERING A DECENT FOCUS AT THE SFC AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF. BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS IT ALL NEEDS TO COME
TOGETHER...BUT IF IT DOES...SHOULD ULTIMATELY RESULT IN HI POPS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND H900-H875...
WILL ONLY SEE A SML INCR IN TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL FROM YESTERDAY BUT
SHOULD RESULT IN 1-2F INCR FROM PERSISTENCE...AND THEN A FURTHER
INCR IN TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS AN
ADDITIONAL 3F HIGHER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE 80-85F
RANGE. RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE STILL AROUND 90F...
SO WE/VE SEEN WARMER. TEMPS WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK EITHER
FROM CLOUD COVER OR FROPA.
TES
&&
.AVIATION...
/1154 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VERY FEW CHANGES FROM PREV FCST. THINK SUS WILL
SEE VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE REST OF THE
SITES SHUD BE VFR THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SE TOMORROW.
TILLY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 100829
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
329 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US IN ADVANCE
OF AN UNSEASONABLY STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GREAT BASIN. WEST TO SW UPPER FLOW WAS ENHANCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH WITH AN INCREASING PRES GRAD ACR THE
PLAINS. SSE WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SLOWLY RISING DEWPOINTS AND WINDS GRADUALLY REDUCING THE DIURNAL SPREAD.
MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE BALLPARK AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
IN THE SHORT TERM.
IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SLOWER WITH EWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS REASONABLE...WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. HOWEVER...AS PER COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES...HAVE RAISED POPS
INTO THE SLGT CHC/CHC CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
ONLY PATCHY CIRRUS ADVECTING FROM THE SW OVER TERMINAL CORRIDOR. SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH MECHANICAL MIXING BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...WITH DECOUPLING PRECLUDING FURTHER GUSTINESS AROUND AND
AFTER SUNSET.
21
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 100813
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...RESULTING IN SLIGHT WARMER
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THROUGH THE AREA. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...SO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LEAVING THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING...AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA BY LATE MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHOW LITTLE
MOVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE
DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY AND JUST KEPT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
WISE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL PICK UP AFTER DAWN AND
BECOME GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR AND WINDS DIE BACK DOWN A BIT AFTER 00Z.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 100500
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AS STRONG TROUGH CUTS OFF IN THE
GREAT BASIN AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THIS DEVELOPS...THE SURFACE SHOULD
RESPOND WITH PRESSURE FALLS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A FRONT
BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...PARALLEL TO THIS UPPER FLOW. THUS SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
RAPID CHANGE FROM THE WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OF TODAY TO A
STRONGER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE GRADUAL TO RETURN AS
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST FAIRLY DRY AT THIS TIME IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST IN GEORGIA. THUS WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECASTS TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREA
ONLY MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 875 MB BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THUS, NOT EXPECTING TO TAP THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL BE DEVELOP
FURTHER ALOFT AROUND THE 800 MB LAYER.
PC
MEDIUM RANGE (SUN-THU)...
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN REGARDS TO UPCOMING
FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS STILL REMAINS A BIT
OF AN OUTSIDER AND CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE IN ITS INDIVIDUAL
SOLUTIONS TOO MUCH TO BE HELD TOO HIGHLY IN REGARD. LATEST 12Z/09
GFS CONTINUES TO SPEED UP PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE I FEEL THIS SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...LOOKING AT
GEFS STANDARD DEVIATION AND MEAN PLOTS WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STANDARD
DEVIATION PROGS INDICATE A 3-4 MB DEVIATION OF MEAN PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS ALL HINGES ON THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE 500MB UPR
TROUGH WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL FEEL THE 00Z/09 ECMWF IS HANDLING
SLIGHTLY BETTER.
THIS BEING SAID...EXPECTING SUNDAY TO BE A RATHER WARM DAY IN THE
CWA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE
DECENT MIXING AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHC POPS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA FOR
SUNDAY...AS LIFT ALONG INCREASING LLJ COULD PRODUCE TSRA ACTIVITY
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHERN
NE. BY MONDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY AS LOW-LVL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONT...IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING IS ATTAINABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOW 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
READINGS INTO THE 60S AT BEST.
AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS CONCERNED...BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...AS DIRECT CIRCULATION BETWEEN H850
FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL SHRA BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOCUSED
OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MO. INSTABILITY PROGS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY ISO-TSRA WORDING. AS UPR-TROUGH BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE NE MONDAY NIGHT...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SHOVED
SOUTHEAST LEADING TO AN INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY BE LESSENED
SOMEWHAT AS MAIN JET STREAK LIFTS OFF TO THE NE. PRECIP SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
MODERATE CAA AND STEADY CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND HAVE DROPPED READINGS SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM. IN FACT...IF
STRATO-CU DECK FORMS BEHIND FRONT...CURRENT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
60S MAY NOT BE ATTAINABLE.
DUX
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
ONLY PATCHY CIRRUS ADVECTING FROM THE SW OVER TERMINAL CORRIDOR. SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH MECHANICAL MIXING BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...WITH DECOUPLING PRECLUDING FURTHER GUSTINESS AROUND AND
AFTER SUNSET.
21
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 100455
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/210 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS STARTING TO AMPLIFY AS A DEEP TROF
IS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
IN STORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-15C WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FORECAST REMAINS
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. AS THIS HAPPENS A
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SEASONAL AUTUMN WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/1154 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VERY FEW CHANGES FROM PREV FCST. THINK SUS WILL
SEE VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE REST OF THE
SITES SHUD BE VFR THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SE TOMORROW.
TILLY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 52 77 58 81 / 0 0 5 5
QUINCY 48 74 55 79 / 0 0 5 5
COLUMBIA 48 76 55 79 / 0 0 5 5
JEFFERSON CITY 48 76 55 80 / 0 0 5 5
SALEM 45 78 52 80 / 0 0 5 5
FARMINGTON 44 76 51 78 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 100448
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WITH
TEMPERATURES...SHIFTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH MORE
OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS A STORM
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OUT IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE MILD AS A RESULT WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CONTINUING TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY LATE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT LINED UP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OVER THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL PICK UP AFTER DAWN
AND BECOME GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR AND WINDS DIE BACK DOWN A BIT AFTER 00Z.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 092321
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
621 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WITH
TEMPERATURES...SHIFTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH MORE
OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS A STORM
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OUT IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE MILD AS A RESULT WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CONTINUING TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY LATE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT LINED UP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRESENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS. AS DAWN APPROACHES...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE NOSE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE AT BOTH
LOCATIONS FROM NOW THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AT AROUND 12 KNOTS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 092315
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/210 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS STARTING TO AMPLIFY AS A DEEP TROF
IS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
IN STORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-15C WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FORECAST REMAINS
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. AS THIS HAPPENS A
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SEASONAL AUTUMN WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/612 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PREV TAF LOOKS GOOD. ESE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND BECOME SSE TOMORROW AROUND 10 KTS. SITES SHUD BE
VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SUS. BOUNDARY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT ELY...SO WOULD THINK RIVER FOG IMPACTING SUS WOULD BE
MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT.
TILLY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 52 77 58 81 / 0 0 5 5
QUINCY 48 74 55 79 / 0 0 5 5
COLUMBIA 48 76 55 79 / 0 0 5 5
JEFFERSON CITY 48 76 55 80 / 0 0 5 5
SALEM 45 78 52 80 / 0 0 5 5
FARMINGTON 44 76 51 78 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 092031
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AS STRONG TROUGH CUTS OFF IN THE
GREAT BASIN AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THIS DEVELOPS...THE SURFACE SHOULD
RESPOND WITH PRESSURE FALLS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A FRONT
BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...PARALLEL TO THIS UPPER FLOW. THUS SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
RAPID CHANGE FROM THE WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OF TODAY TO A
STRONGER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE GRADUAL TO RETURN AS
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST FAIRLY DRY AT THIS TIME IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST IN GEORGIA. THUS WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECASTS TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREA
ONLY MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 875 MB BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THUS, NOT EXPECTING TO TAP THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL BE DEVELOP
FURTHER ALOFT AROUND THE 800 MB LAYER.
PC
MEDIUM RANGE (SUN-THU)...
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN REGARDS TO UPCOMING
FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS STILL REMAINS A BIT
OF AN OUTSIDER AND CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE IN ITS INDIVIDUAL
SOLUTIONS TOO MUCH TO BE HELD TOO HIGHLY IN REGARD. LATEST 12Z/09
GFS CONTINUES TO SPEED UP PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE I FEEL THIS SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...LOOKING AT
GEFS STANDARD DEVIATION AND MEAN PLOTS WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STANDARD
DEVIATION PROGS INDICATE A 3-4 MB DEVIATION OF MEAN PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS ALL HINGES ON THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE 500MB UPR
TROUGH WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL FEEL THE 00Z/09 ECMWF IS HANDLING
SLIGHTLY BETTER.
THIS BEING SAID...EXPECTING SUNDAY TO BE A RATHER WARM DAY IN THE
CWA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE
DECENT MIXING AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHC POPS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA FOR
SUNDAY...AS LIFT ALONG INCREASING LLJ COULD PRODUCE TSRA ACTIVITY
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHERN
NE. BY MONDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY AS LOW-LVL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONT...IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING IS ATTAINABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOW 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
READINGS INTO THE 60S AT BEST.
AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS CONCERNED...BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...AS DIRECT CIRCULATION BETWEEN H850
FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL SHRA BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOCUSED
OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MO. INSTABILITY PROGS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY ISO-TSRA WORDING. AS UPR-TROUGH BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE NE MONDAY NIGHT...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SHOVED
SOUTHEAST LEADING TO AN INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY BE LESSENED
SOMEWHAT AS MAIN JET STREAK LIFTS OFF TO THE NE. PRECIP SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
MODERATE CAA AND STEADY CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND HAVE DROPPED READINGS SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM. IN FACT...IF
STRATO-CU DECK FORMS BEHIND FRONT...CURRENT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
60S MAY NOT BE ATTAINABLE.
DUX
&&
.AVIATION...
/1225 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
TONIGHT AS INVERSION SETS UP BUT ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING TOTALLY CALM. WINDS SHOULD TURN
MORE TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT JUMPS NORTH AND
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 091922
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WITH
TEMPERATURES...SHIFTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH MORE
OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS A STORM
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OUT IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE MILD AS A RESULT WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CONTINUING TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY LATE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT LINED UP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE LATER FRIDAY
MORNING.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 091913
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
213 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/210 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS STARTING TO AMPLIFY AS A DEEP TROF
IS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
IN STORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-15C WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FORECAST REMAINS
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. AS THIS HAPPENS A
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SEASONAL AUTUMN WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/1225 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED THROUGH THE REGION...DESPITE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY THEN
EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT KSUS FROM 09Z TO 12Z.
WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.
BYRD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 52 77 58 81 / 0 0 5 5
QUINCY 48 74 55 79 / 0 0 5 5
COLUMBIA 48 76 55 79 / 0 0 5 5
JEFFERSON CITY 48 76 55 80 / 0 0 5 5
SALEM 45 78 52 80 / 0 0 5 5
FARMINGTON 44 76 51 78 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 091739
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWEST AR OZARKS REGION
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE OZARKS TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST KS. STILL HAVE A FEW
DEGREES TO DROP BEFORE SUNRISE. THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH DEW POINTS
MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...AND
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW.
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR AREA LAKES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM QUICK THIS MORNING AND WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...MAYBE SHADING A LITTLE BIT TOWARD THE COOLER ETA MOS IN
SPOTS.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST WHICH WILL
EMPHASIZE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...OR IN SOME CASES WHETHER WE WILL SEE
MUCH RAIN AT ALL...WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN LATER PERIODS
NEXT WEEK.
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE OR/NORTHERN CA COAST
TONIGHT WILL DIG OUT A STRONG UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL TRENDS
FROM THE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VLY INTO TX
AND MEXICO...AND IF ANYTHING ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING VERSUS MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LOW OUT
WEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
MID/LATE MONDAY. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT
WON`T MAKE TO MUCH PROGRESS EAST WITH IN A BROAD UPPER SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...LOOKS LIKE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR US HOWEVER...HAVE CUT
BACK POPS SOMEWHAT MONDAY CONFINING POPS TO THE THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF OUR CWFA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO DEVELOP SOME DAYTIME
QPF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWFA...AND
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH WEAK/NO FORCING (MAYBE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT) AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...CAN`T SEE MUCH HAPPENING
SO WILL BE KEEPING POPS LOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL SEEM TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT
WEEK VERSUS THE ECMWF. IN EITHER CASE...BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHERN MO...STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
HAS SHIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE...LEAVING A WEAKER TRAILING UPPER WAVE TO PROVIDE LIFT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT...BUT REDUCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE AREA...SO POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. DSA
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE LATER FRIDAY
MORNING.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 091730
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BI-STATE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLED OVER THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WON`T WARM UP MUCH PAST THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THESE
LOCATIONS I THINK WE`LL AVOID THE TRUE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING
OVER THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...RIDGING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD KEEP RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO PRIMARILY OVER THE PLAINS. SO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY AS
MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON
FRONTAL POSITION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THO THE LATEST GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...MONDAY AND AT
LEAST PART OF TUESDAY STILL LOOK WET AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...SO I`VE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE
DAYS.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/1225 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED THROUGH THE REGION...DESPITE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY THEN
EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT KSUS FROM 09Z TO 12Z.
WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 091725
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MVG THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS DRIVEN A VERY
WEAK CDFNT INTO NWRN MO. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN
RATHER WEAK AND WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE ACR THE
SRN CWA TNGT. THIS ADVERTISED WELL BY THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SERN US IN ADVANCE OF A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...STG PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRAD THROUGHOUT THE CWA. TEMPS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS S/SE FLOW INCREASES
WITH STEADY MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT RISES.
IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SIMILAR IN THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES CHANGES.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
TONIGHT AS INVERSION SETS UP BUT ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING TOTALLY CALM. WINDS SHOULD TURN
MORE TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT JUMPS NORTH AND
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 091151
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MVG THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS DRIVEN A VERY
WEAK CDFNT INTO NWRN MO. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN
RATHER WEAK AND WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE ACR THE
SRN CWA TNGT. THIS ADVERTISED WELL BY THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SERN US IN ADVANCE OF A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...STG PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRAD THROUGHOUT THE CWA. TEMPS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS S/SE FLOW INCREASES
WITH STEADY MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT RISES.
IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SIMILAR IN THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES CHANGES.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL TUNE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CUTTER
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 091144
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BI-STATE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLED OVER THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WON`T WARM UP MUCH PAST THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THESE
LOCATIONS I THINK WE`LL AVOID THE TRUE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING
OVER THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...RIDGING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD KEEP RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO PRIMARILY OVER THE PLAINS. SO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY AS
MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON
FRONTAL POSITION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THO THE LATEST GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...MONDAY AND AT
LEAST PART OF TUESDAY STILL LOOK WET AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...SO I`VE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE
DAYS.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/637 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG WILL CONTINUE IN THE
CHESTERFIELD VALLEY/KSUS REGION THRU 13-14Z...OTHERWISE THESE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING TURNING THE SFC WINDS TO A MORE
NELY THEN ELY COMPONENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18H.
GLASS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 091108
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWEST AR OZARKS REGION
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE OZARKS TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST KS. STILL HAVE A FEW
DEGREES TO DROP BEFORE SUNRISE. THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH DEW POINTS
MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...AND
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW.
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR AREA LAKES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM QUICK THIS MORNING AND WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...MAYBE SHADING A LITTLE BIT TOWARD THE COOLER ETA MOS IN
SPOTS.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST WHICH WILL
EMPHASIZE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...OR IN SOME CASES WHETHER WE WILL SEE
MUCH RAIN AT ALL...WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN LATER PERIODS
NEXT WEEK.
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE OR/NORTHERN CA COAST
TONIGHT WILL DIG OUT A STRONG UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL TRENDS
FROM THE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VLY INTO TX
AND MEXICO...AND IF ANYTHING ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING VERSUS MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LOW OUT
WEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
MID/LATE MONDAY. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT
WON`T MAKE TO MUCH PROGRESS EAST WITH IN A BROAD UPPER SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...LOOKS LIKE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR US HOWEVER...HAVE CUT
BACK POPS SOMEWHAT MONDAY CONFINING POPS TO THE THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF OUR CWFA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO DEVELOP SOME DAYTIME
QPF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWFA...AND
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH WEAK/NO FORCING (MAYBE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT) AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...CAN`T SEE MUCH HAPPENING
SO WILL BE KEEPING POPS LOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL SEEM TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT
WEEK VERSUS THE ECMWF. IN EITHER CASE...BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHERN MO...STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
HAS SHIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE...LEAVING A WEAKER TRAILING UPPER WAVE TO PROVIDE LIFT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT...BUT REDUCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE AREA...SO POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. DSA
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z KJLN/KSGF TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
WISE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 090851
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWEST AR OZARKS REGION
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE OZARKS TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST KS. STILL HAVE A FEW
DEGREES TO DROP BEFORE SUNRISE. THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH DEW POINTS
MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...AND
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW.
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR AREA LAKES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM QUICK THIS MORNING AND WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...MAYBE SHADING A LITTLE BIT TOWARD THE COOLER ETA MOS IN
SPOTS.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST WHICH WILL
EMPHASIZE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...OR IN SOME CASES WHETHER WE WILL SEE
MUCH RAIN AT ALL...WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN LATER PERIODS
NEXT WEEK.
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE OR/NORTHERN CA COAST
TONIGHT WILL DIG OUT A STRONG UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL TRENDS
FROM THE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VLY INTO TX
AND MEXICO...AND IF ANYTHING ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING VERSUS MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LOW OUT
WEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
MID/LATE MONDAY. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT
WON`T MAKE TO MUCH PROGRESS EAST WITH IN A BROAD UPPER SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...LOOKS LIKE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR US HOWEVER...HAVE CUT
BACK POPS SOMEWHAT MONDAY CONFINING POPS TO THE THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF OUR CWFA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO DEVELOP SOME DAYTIME
QPF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWFA...AND
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH WEAK/NO FORCING (MAYBE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT) AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...CAN`T SEE MUCH HAPPENING
SO WILL BE KEEPING POPS LOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL SEEM TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT
WEEK VERSUS THE ECMWF. IN EITHER CASE...BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHERN MO...STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
HAS SHIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE...LEAVING A WEAKER TRAILING UPPER WAVE TO PROVIDE LIFT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT...BUT REDUCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE AREA...SO POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. DSA
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. LIGHT
FOG...POSSIBLY MVFR IN SPOTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL EXCEED OUR CROSSOVER TEMPS...SO ANY FOG
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE.
GAGAN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 090850
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BI-STATE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLED OVER THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WON`T WARM UP MUCH PAST THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THESE
LOCATIONS I THINK WE`LL AVOID THE TRUE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING
OVER THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...RIDGING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD KEEP RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO PRIMARILY OVER THE PLAINS. SO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY AS
MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON
FRONTAL POSITION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THO THE LATEST GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...MONDAY AND AT
LEAST PART OF TUESDAY STILL LOOK WET AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...SO I`VE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE
DAYS.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/1037 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SFC RDG EXTDS FM ERN TX NE THRU SRN MO ATTM.
WK CDFNT/SFC TROF EXTDG FM FM IA SW THRU CNTRL KS WILL MOVE SEWD
THRU THE REGION WITH ANOTHER RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS BLDG SEWD THRU THE AREA ON THU. DO NOT SEE ANY CLOUDS WITH
THIS WK FNT/SFC TROF. LGT SFC WNDS LT TGT WILL VEER ARND TO AN E-NELY
DIRECTION THU AFTN AND TO AN ELY DIRECTION THU EVNG AS THIS RDG
BLDS SEWD INTO THE CWA. WITH A CLR SKY...LGT SFC WND...AND COOL
MIN TEMPS LT TGT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RVR VLY FOG LT TGT AND EARLY
THU MRNG WITH COOL AIR OVER WARM RIVER WATER. WILL INCLUDE FOG IN
THE SUS TAF BTWN 06Z TO 14Z.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 090850
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MVG THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS DRIVEN A VERY
WEAK CDFNT INTO NWRN MO. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN
RATHER WEAK AND WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE ACR THE
SRN CWA TNGT. THIS ADVERTISED WELL BY THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SERN US IN ADVANCE OF A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...STG PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRAD THROUGHOUT THE CWA. TEMPS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS S/SE FLOW INCREASES
WITH STEADY MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT RISES.
IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SIMILAR IN THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES CHANGES.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS WILL STAY
CLEAR OF VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO CHANGING WIND
CURRENTS AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF KSTJ MOVES
SOUTH...AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY MIXED. HOWEVER...THE
KSTJ TERMINAL WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE AS LUCKY GIVEN ITS RELATIVELY
SHELTERED LOCATION IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS. EXPECTATION IS ANOTHER
EARLY MORNING OF RIVER FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z
TO 14Z...THEN VFR AFTER THAT.
CUTTER
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 090850
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
/350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BI-STATE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLED OVER THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WON`T WARM UP MUCH PAST THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THESE
LOCATIONS I THINK WE`LL AVOID THE TRUE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING
OVER THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...RIDGING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD KEEP RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO PRIMARILY OVER THE PLAINS. SO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY AS
MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON
FRONTAL POSITION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THO THE LATEST GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...MONDAY AND AT
LEAST PART OF TUESDAY STILL LOOK WET AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...SO I`VE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE
DAYS.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/1037 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SFC RDG EXTDS FM ERN TX NE THRU SRN MO ATTM.
WK CDFNT/SFC TROF EXTDG FM FM IA SW THRU CNTRL KS WILL MOVE SEWD
THRU THE REGION WITH ANOTHER RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS BLDG SEWD THRU THE AREA ON THU. DO NOT SEE ANY CLOUDS WITH
THIS WK FNT/SFC TROF. LGT SFC WNDS LT TGT WILL VEER ARND TO AN E-NELY
DIRECTION THU AFTN AND TO AN ELY DIRECTION THU EVNG AS THIS RDG
BLDS SEWD INTO THE CWA. WITH A CLR SKY...LGT SFC WND...AND COOL
MIN TEMPS LT TGT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RVR VLY FOG LT TGT AND EARLY
THU MRNG WITH COOL AIR OVER WARM RIVER WATER. WILL INCLUDE FOG IN
THE SUS TAF BTWN 06Z TO 14Z.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 090850
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
350 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MVG THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS DRIVEN A VERY
WEAK CDFNT INTO NWRN MO. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN
RATHER WEAK AND WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE ACR THE
SRN CWA TNGT. THIS ADVERTISED WELL BY THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SERN US IN ADVANCE OF A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...STG PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRAD THROUGHOUT THE CWA. TEMPS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS S/SE FLOW INCREASES
WITH STEADY MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT RISES.
IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SIMILAR IN THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES CHANGES.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS WILL STAY
CLEAR OF VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO CHANGING WIND
CURRENTS AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF KSTJ MOVES
SOUTH...AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY MIXED. HOWEVER...THE
KSTJ TERMINAL WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE AS LUCKY GIVEN ITS RELATIVELY
SHELTERED LOCATION IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS. EXPECTATION IS ANOTHER
EARLY MORNING OF RIVER FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z
TO 14Z...THEN VFR AFTER THAT.
CUTTER
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
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