000
FXUS63 KFGF 200846
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND. FIRST
OFF...INTERESTING 500 MB VORT OVER NE SD THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SE ND THIS AFTN. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITH THIS FEATURE AND SATELLITE
HAS SHOWN PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE. THUS MAY
WELL SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN SE ND TODAY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS HOLD ABOUT STEADY TODAY SO LOOK FOR
HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME AS ON TUESDAY WITH MOST SITES 85 TO 90. THE
SFC TO 850 MB GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP TODAY AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES INTO WRN ND THIS AFTN. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER TO
800-850 MB THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED OVER CNTRL ND
INTO CNTRL SD. NAM 925 MB WINDS INDICATE 30 KTS WILL EASILY MIX
DOWN FROM AREAS AROUND JAMESTOWN TO BISMARCK SOUTHWARD INTO
SD...THUS COORD WITH BIS/ABR AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS JUST SOUTH OF DVL TO VALLEY
CITY TO FORMAN/LISBON AREAS. IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY IT WILL BE
WINDY WITH 925 MB WINDS CLOSER TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN...JUST SHY OF
WIND ADV RANGE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH A BIT BUT STILL HOLD UP AS 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVE INTO ERN ND IN THE AFTN AND THUS
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME PLACES HITTING 90.
HUMID WEATHER TOO. IT LOOKS WINDY IN THE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN WITH
925 MB WINDS OF 30 KTS AND 850 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE
AFTN. THUS LIKELY WIND ADV AREA TO PUSH INTO THE RRV THURSDAY.

ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTE 00Z FRI FOR DVL
REGION AS BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING LATE THUR AFTN IS ALONG OR JUST
BEHIND FRONT OVER NW ND INTO SE SASK/SW MB. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE THU NIGHT SO SOME CHC THAT TSTMS MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
ERN ND AHD OF FRONT THU OVERNIGHT. ACTUAL FRONT WILL PASS THRU ERN
ND FRI MORNING AND INTO NW MN/WCNTRL MN FRI AFTN. WILL KEEP CHC
THUNDERSTORMS GOING...THOUGH BEST BET MAY BE WHEREEVER FRONT IS
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS MAXED OUT. THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER OUR ERN
FCST AREA ATTM.


.LONG TERM...
TWEEKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A PLEASANT
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTN CUMULUS LIKELY
ON SATURDAY...ESP IN NW MN CLOSER TO 500 MB TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY 6000 TO 8000 FT CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO SE ND THIS MORNING
AND MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 150-160
DEGREES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER TVF/GFK/FAR/DVL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. A BIT LESS WIND
AT BJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE

000
FXUS63 KBIS 200840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FIRST
FOCUS ON WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY...THEN
A BIG COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY. ALSO CONTINUED WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST...THEN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AREA WIDE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS
OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES STARTING OUT LATER TODAY WEST AND CONTINUING
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY DAYTIME.
DETAILS BELOW. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SO
WILL ONCE AGAIN UTILIZE A BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO ALBERTA AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
LOW NOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA
AND SASKATCHEWAN. AS A RESULT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
EARLY MORNING AT MOST OBSERVING SITES. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CENTRAL AND EAST AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING DUE
TO A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS.

ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...CONSTRICTING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THUS EXPECTING
STRONGER WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EAST BUT MUCH LIGHTER WEST DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SFC TROUGH
ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER. THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY WITH NO HEADLINES NEEDED AS OUR LOWEST
PERCENT RH VALUES WILL COINCIDE WITH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AS 700MB CAA LOOKS TO WEAKEN THE CAP HERE. THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALSO IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY AND SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS LATER IN THE DAY. ANY RATE
THOUGHT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.

AS MENTIONED...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY HERE FROM 15Z THIS
MORNING UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AS
THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN ND...AND WHERE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
RESIDES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THIS TIME WITH
MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 400 J/KG IN PLACE (LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED
CAPE PRESENT CURRENTLY). HAVE BEEN BURNED BEFORE UNDER THIS
SCENARIO SO WILL THROW IN ISOLD THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT.

YET ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY (TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST) AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY DAYTIME ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS/SFC COLD
FRONT (WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL) AS WE LOOK TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED IN
THE WARM SECTOR (SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST). THE STRONG CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA LATER THURSDAY EVENING...EJECTING THE SFC TROUGH EASTWARD
AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KEPT HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE GREATEST MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
VERY POSSIBLE BUT WILL AGAIN HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THIS WITHIN
THE ZFP AND CONTINUE TO STRONGLY WORD IN THE HWO.

CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY DAYTIME AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
AFFECTS OF THE STRONG COLD FROPA FROM THURS NIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA (THESE WINDS ALREADY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT). A
WIND ADVISORY AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY WITH PEAK GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE UP
TO AROUND 35 - 40 MPH...THIS TIME ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RIDGING DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMING TREND AND
DRY WEATHER. H85 TEMPS PEAK ON MONDAY CONSEQUENTLY GIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90/LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN FORECAST REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY CREATING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS. PATTERN BECOMES
ZONAL/COOLER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO PASS THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AFTER 21Z...KISN/KDIK
STAND THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WITH CLOUD BASES
FAIRLY HIGH UP AROUND 10KFT TO 12KFT INITIALLY...WOULD ANTICIPATE
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH
THE CLOUD BASE...AT LEAST UNTIL THE CLOUD BASES LOWER TO AROUND
8KFT. ISOLATED GUSTS COULD REACH 50KT OR MORE UNDER THE STRONGEST
DOWNDRAFT. ELSEWHERE...WINDY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL
COMMENCE TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE BETWEEN KBIS AND KJMS AND AREAS SOUTH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

NH/KS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 200134
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
830 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES. CU FIELD DISSIPATING
AS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
HOLD TONIGHT WITH STEADIEST MIXING FROM VALLEY WEST OVERNIGHT AROUND
10-15 KTS. THERMAL ADVECTION NEUTRAL HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPDATE AS REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KBIS 192052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFYING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT RANGE. A
STRONG REX BLOCK COMPRISED OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND A
STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS SLOWING
THE PROGRESSION OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

CURRENTLY...HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IS PROMPTING LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THEREBY
LEADING TO A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL CAPPING IS STRONG...AND IT SHOULD TAKE
SEVERAL DAYS TO BREAK DOWN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. AS IS TYPICAL
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR TOMORROW. BY
THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN
MONTANA THAT FILTER SOLAR HEATING OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
OFFSET SOME OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT TO FINALLY ERODE THE CAP AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE TIMING
CONCERNS...SINCE THE 06/12 UTC GFS RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 06/12 UTC GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM MEANS...12 UTC
NAM...12 UTC GEM GLOBAL...09 UTC SREF MEAN. CONVERSATIONS WITH
NCEP/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CONFIRM THAT THE LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
SO..HAVE DECIDED TO AVOID THE GFS AND HAVE KEPT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DOWN BELOW LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEFINITELY A COOLER START TO THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY AS THE
GFS RUN TODAY IS STRONGER IN MOVING THROUGH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER BUT SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AT THAT TIME. BOTH MODELS
MOVE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA THEN. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ONCE AGAIN
SO TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND 90 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LARGE PACIFIC NW
STATES TROUGH MOVES ASHORE ON MONDAY AND WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERALL A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE
LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...

NO CONCERNS OTHER THAN A FEW 7,000 TO 9,000 FOOT SCATTERED
CUMULUS INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING
TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA HAS CAUSED THE STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S HAVE ALSO RESULTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO 10 TO 15
PERCENT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH GIVEN THE
VERY DRY VEGETATION THAT EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRE DANGER WILL LOWER AS WINDS DIMINISH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES RISE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...SINCE THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN AIR
THAT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST INTO THE MIDDLE 20S MPH...SO THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SCHECK/VJ

000
FXUS63 KFGF 192023
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SFC RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RIDGE COUPLED WITH INCREASING H5 VALUES WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BACK
TOWARD THE 90F RANGE BY THURSDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
COLUMN SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED. INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN E MT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS FOR WED/THU.

FOR FRIDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT WITH GFS
PUSHING THE SYSTEM THRU FASTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS.
THEREFORE...A BLENDED NAM/ECMWF SOLN IS PREFERRED FOR THIS PACKAGE.
NAM ALSO HINTS AT STRONGER 925-850MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
BASED ON EARLIER REASONING HAVE REFLECTED GUSTY SFC WINDS IN THE
ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT
WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY
WINDS BEHIND IT. THE GREATEST PCPN AMTS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
NE ND/NW MN.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...S/W
EXITING FA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...00Z SAT...AND BUILDING 500MB
RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 500MB LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF LAKE WINNIPEG IN MANITOBA AT 00Z
SAT...ANY BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH CAA AT 850MB ON 30 TO 40 KT WINDS PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
QUICKLY OUT OF CWA BY SAT MORNING. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE IN
THE NW FLOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND 500MB
RIDGING INCREASES THICKNESSES...850MB WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AND TEMPS WILL RESPOND AS MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY FROM DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GFK...FAR AND TVF
EARLY MORNING AND BJI MID MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

HOPKINS/JK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 191601
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1101 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.UPDATE...
NARROW BAND OF CLOUDINESS IN E ND WILL ERODE AS SFC HEATING
CONTINUES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS IN THE AREA IN THE 5000 TO 8000
FT RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 15 KTS IN ERN ND BY AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

HOPKINS

000
FXUS63 KBIS 191547
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1047 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.UPDATE...

NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY THIS MORNING...AND THE TEMPERATURE IN
DICKINSON IS ALREADY 79F. EXPECT NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS MIDDLE
LEVEL DRY AIR MIXES DOWN. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. SO...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TAP WITH GUSTY 15-25 MPH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
EAST...BETTER EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SLOWED SURFACE HEATING FROM
LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST TODAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE UTILIZED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE NAM BECOMES AN OUTLIER.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN US COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TURN HAS PROPAGATED EAST AS A RESULT OF A
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO OUR LOCAL REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND BRING WITH IT A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH IS GAINING STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL MT
AND EASTERN ALBERTA AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS HAVE GONE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT AND SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WEST/CENTRAL ND BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED AS WELL BUT MORE SO FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
GREATLY ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND AFTERNOON PERCENT RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT AS SFC DEWPOINT
TEMPS MIX OUT AND FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. EXPECTED WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
NECESSITATE AN UPGRADE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO MENTION NEAR-RECORD HIGHS TODAY
NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...CONSTRICTING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ TEMPS. DUE TO THE
POSITION OF THE SFC TROUGH...WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE LIGHTER OVER
WESTERN ND ALONG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE STATE.
THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT STILL MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE MT/ND BORDER AREA...AND OUR FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. ALSO...A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT MORE EAST WED NIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN LATER UPDATES DEPENDING ON HOW
MODELS DEVELOP THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.

YET ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY (TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CENTRAL AND EAST) AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY DAYTIME ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS/SFC
COLD FRONT (WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL) AS WE LOOK TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
IN THE WARM SECTOR (SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST).

THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY EVENING...EJECTING THE SFC TROUGH
EASTWARD AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS VERY PROBABLE
BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON MENTIONING THIS WITHIN THE ZFP BUT WILL
STRONGLY WORD IN THE HWO.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...BUT SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH NEXT INCOMING TROUGH/SFC FRONT. FIRST UPPER
TROUGH TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND LEFT POPS
UNCHANGED AS LEFTOVER PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. WINDY AND MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING MAINLY
BETWEEN 75F TO 80F. CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH
DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. THE GFS BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE MONDAY WITH
SUCCESSIVE WAVES FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF KEEPS A
BROAD RIDGE INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...THEN
PUSHES A SFC FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL TAKE A
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS AND BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF POPS TO OUR
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH BLENDS WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMEST ON
MONDAY...REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24HRS. CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15KT TO 30KT TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

NH/KS/SCHECK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 191521
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1021 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.UPDATE...
NARROW BAND OF CLOUDINESS IN E ND WILL ERODE AS SFC HEATING
CONTINUES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD ATTM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
HOPKINS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 190838
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IS ON TEMPS AND WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE HIGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN ERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. 850
MB TEMPS RISE +4C TODAY..BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS NOT GREAT AT WARMING
SO LOOKING TO TACK ON 3-5 DEGREES TO YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS.
BIGGEST WARMING LIKELY OVER NW MN. LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C.
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WED-THU WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER ERN MT MOVING INTO WRN ND WED AFTN AND INTO CNTRL ND
THU. SFC GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WED AFTN
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AS 925-850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35 KT RANGE.
AS FOR TEMPS WED AND THU...850 MB TEMPS HOLD ABOUT STEADY FROM
TODAYS READINGS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ACTUALLY COOL A BIT IN WCNTRL
MN. THUS HESISTANT TO BOOST READINGS MUCH ABOVE TODAYS LEVELS AND
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME 850-700 MB MOISTURE. BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE
IS WEAK SO PATCHY CLOUDS AT BEST. THEN DRY COLUMN WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS THURSDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THUNDER THU NIGHT IN LOW LEVEL JET AHD
OF TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL ND. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THRU AREA
FRIDAY. PRETTY CAPPED AHD OF FRONT AND MOISTURE NOT GREAT EITHER.
BEST CHC OF PCPN MORE ALONG OR JUST BEHIND FRONT.


.LONG TERM...
ONCE FRIDAY SYSTEM MOVES OUT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH SOME
COOLING AND THEN WARMING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHD OF NEXT PAC NW
UPPER LOW. OUTSIDE OF THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...A WARM AND DRY PATTERN
IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ONGOING WHEAT HARVEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS IN THE AREA IN THE 5000 TO 8000
FT RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 15 KTS IN ERN ND BY AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE

000
FXUS63 KBIS 190818
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST TODAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE UTILIZED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE NAM BECOMES AN OUTLIER.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN US COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TURN HAS PROPAGATED EAST AS A RESULT OF A
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO OUR LOCAL REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND BRING WITH IT A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH IS GAINING STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL MT
AND EASTERN ALBERTA AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS HAVE GONE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT AND SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WEST/CENTRAL ND BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED AS WELL BUT MORE SO FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
GREATLY ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND AFTERNOON PERCENT RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT AS SFC DEWPOINT
TEMPS MIX OUT AND FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. EXPECTED WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
NECESSITATE AN UPGRADE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO MENTION NEAR-RECORD HIGHS TODAY
NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...CONSTRICTING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ TEMPS. DUE TO THE
POSITION OF THE SFC TROUGH...WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE LIGHTER OVER
WESTERN ND ALONG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE STATE.
THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT STILL MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE MT/ND BORDER AREA...AND OUR FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. ALSO...A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT MORE EAST WED NIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN LATER UPDATES DEPENDING ON HOW
MODELS DEVELOP THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.

YET ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY (TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CENTRAL AND EAST) AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY DAYTIME ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS/SFC
COLD FRONT (WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL) AS WE LOOK TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
IN THE WARM SECTOR (SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST).

THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY EVENING...EJECTING THE SFC TROUGH
EASTWARD AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS VERY PROBABLE
BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON MENTIONING THIS WITHIN THE ZFP BUT WILL
STRONGLY WORD IN THE HWO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...BUT SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH NEXT INCOMING TROUGH/SFC FRONT. FIRST UPPER
TROUGH TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND LEFT POPS
UNCHANGED AS LEFTOVER PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. WINDY AND MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING MAINLY
BETWEEN 75F TO 80F. CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH
DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. THE GFS BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE MONDAY WITH
SUCCESSIVE WAVES FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF KEEPS A
BROAD RIDGE INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...THEN
PUSHES A SFC FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL TAKE A
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS AND BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF POPS TO OUR
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH BLENDS WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMEST ON
MONDAY...REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24HRS. CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15KT TO 30KT TODAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-
040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

NH/KS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 190148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES.  CU
FIELD DISSIPATING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONES IN VCNTY OF COMPACT
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO PULL ISOLD PCPN MENTION
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE GREATEST 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
NORTHERN FA...5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WEST IN RETURN FLOW
AND MIXING MAY HOLD FROM 5 TO 10KTS BUT DID LOWER MINS SLIGHTLY.
FARTHER SOUTH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S SO TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS COOL. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CHANGES
MINIMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE NE TO SE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KBIS 182016
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY A FEW CU/TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG WESTERN
PORTIONS OF BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS
ON FIRE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR. HAVE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR NOW. H5 RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS BACKING FLOW AND
TROUGHING REPLACE IT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING BY LATER FRIDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL TROF PASSES. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...ABOUT 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE DAYS LEADING
UP TO FRIDAY. IN ACTUALITY THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A HAIR
BELOW AVERAGE (NORMALS) FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROF OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST
TO RETROGRADE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO AGAIN BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE SIMILAR
IN INTENSITY TO THE ONE THIS WEEK...H8 TEMPERATURES 20 TO 24 DEGREES
C. THAT WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO 90 TO 95 DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE THING TO WATCH WITH THESE HOT SPELLS WILL BE THE DRY CONDITIONS
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IF LITTLE OR NO RAIN FALLS OVER DRY AREAS
OF THE WEST IT COULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE NEXT HOT SPELL. OCCASIONALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS THE ACTUAL
HIGHS ARE SOME 5 DEGREES OVER FORECAST VALUES...DUE TO THE DRY SOIL.
IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ON EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

WAA/JPM

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181938
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
238 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
17Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OF INTEREST IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE NEXT CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AND
SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK...BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA. WILL USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.

PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CURRENT RUC STILL HOLDING ON TO AROUND NEG TWO SHOWALTERS FOR MY
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND SOME CU IS FINALLY STARTING TO POP UP IN THE
BEMIDJI AREA. 19Z VIS ALSO SHOWS A STRONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING OUT OF THE DULUTH AREA TOWARDS MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE BOUNDARY TO MAKE IT FAR
ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE THE SOUTHEAST...ESP WITH FAIRLY HIGH SFC
ROUGHNESS ACROSS THE FORESTED AREA...IT COULD PROVIDE THE KICK
NEEDED FOR ANYTHING TO GET GOING IN THIS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...BUT THIS IS A STRETCH. A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. WILL MONITOR SOUTHEAST FOR MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...AND MAY
PULL THE LOW POPS PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE IF NOTHING GETS GOING BY
THEN. NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...BUT THE
INSTABILITY IS THERE.

BEYOND TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS
DECENT ALTHOUGH I ADDED A DEG OR TWO...ESP AT NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED FOR WED AND THU. NAM IS SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST
WITH H850 WINDS THU...BRINGING IN A 25 KT LLJ WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. CONT NIGHTTIME MIXING ON TUE AND WED
NIGHTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ALSO CAN EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM... /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT STRONG 500MB SYSTEM TO FLATTEN 500MB RIDGE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 500MB
LOW WILL DRAG COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. BULK SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
STRONGEST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ATTM JUST EXPECTING GENERAL
THUNDER AS INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH SHOWALTERS JUST BELOW
ZERO. SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS...SO ADJUSTED THE POPS
ACCORDINGLY...ENDING BY SAT AM. 500MB RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM 25C IN THE WEST TO 20C IN THE EAST. THUS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE NE TO SE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SPEICHER/JK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1032 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IS AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CWA AS OF 15Z. THE RUC AND NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE WEAKLY NEG
SHOWALTERS EAST OF THE RED RIVER...THUS I REMOVED POPS WEST OF THE RED
RIVER. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW WE WILL SEE ANYTHING DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GRID UPDATES INCLUDE REDUCING SKY COVER 15 TO 20
PERCENT...INCREASING TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS WERE 4
TO 5 DEG ABOVE PREVIOUS CURVE...AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS.

TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 00 UTC GFS AND NAM IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT...
SO WILL USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

07 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT
LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO GRAND FORKS TO JUST NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOW THIS FEATURE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH ML CAPE
VALUES FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG AND SHOWALTER VALUES FROM -1 TO -3
SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10 CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK
WIND SHEER...STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY 00 UTC TONIGHT...SO
KEPT FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLOSELY FOLLOWED MAV MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK 850 HPA COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 500 HPA RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM WEST TO
EAST...SO FORESTED AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PLAINS EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE MIXING AND LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY...EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE WORK WEEK...
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...DRYING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
BUT ALL AIRFIELDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE
SOUTH OF KFAR PRIOR TO 18 UTC.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SPEICHER