000
FXUS63 KGID 062355 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF. THREAT OF DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INITIALLY THIS EVENING...A BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL AS CLOUD COVER ERODES
QUICKLY BY MID EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SHALLOW BUT POSSIBLY DENSE FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS BELOW A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND LASTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS FOG
SHOULD ERODE BY LATE MORNING AS A BROKEN CEILING AROUND 10 TO 15
KFT FORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ALL BE FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NEXT COMING INTO THE
PICTURE SUNDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON
AS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY AND PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY DIEING OFF.
THERE COULD BE A FEW REMNANT SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE. LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOG A POSSIBILITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOG COULD POSSIBLY BE DENSE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOOKING IMPRESSIVE OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST FEW DAYS WILL
BE VERY ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THESE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THEY MOVE OVER...RESULTING
IN DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP AND THEN QUITE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
SETTLING TEMPORARILY OVER THE REGION IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEFT
BEHIND.

SPECIFICALLY...MONDAY SHOULD BE A WET DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXITS BY EVENING. THEN HI PRESSURE SETTLES IN
THRU TUESDAY. WHILE THE HI WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS FRO 36 HOURS OR
SO...IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
OUT TO CLIMB ABV 65 AND LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 40.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING
WAVE. CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 062049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ALL BE FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NEXT COMING INTO THE
PICTURE SUNDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON
AS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY AND PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY DIEING OFF.
THERE COULD BE A FEW REMNANT SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE. LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOG A POSSIBILITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOG COULD POSSIBLY BE DENSE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOOKING IMPRESSIVE OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST FEW DAYS WILL
BE VERY ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THESE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THEY MOVE OVER...RESULTING
IN DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP AND THEN QUITE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
SETTLING TEMPORARILY OVER THE REGION IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEFT
BEHIND.

SPECIFICALLY...MONDAY SHOULD BE A WET DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXITS BY EVENING. THEN HI PRESSURE SETTLES IN
THRU TUESDAY. WHILE THE HI WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS FRO 36 HOURS OR
SO...IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
OUT TO CLIMB ABV 65 AND LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 40.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING
WAVE. CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIE
OFF AS LIFT DECREASES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
EVENING. CLOUD DECK WILL LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT SOME
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$
WESELY/EDDY

000
FXUS63 KLBF 061959
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
3 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
    HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED A FRONT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THERE WAS ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM JUST WEST OF VALENTINE TO JUST EAST OF
OGALLALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 6.7 MICRON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF MONTANA...WYOMING
AND COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. CLOUDS HAD SCATTERED OUT
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS COULD BE
SEEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
    AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...SOME DECENT LIFT IS CREATED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
SO...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MIXING RATIOS
RUNNING 2-4G/KG IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST LIFT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. BECAUSE OF ANTECEDENT RAIN THIS MORNING...
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS...KEEPING THINGS DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
    ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GOOD
LIFT IS INDICATED IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE FIELDS IN THE
305-310K LAYER AS THE FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE THROUGH MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
    A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERATE LOTS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AS INDICATED IN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE FIELDS IN THE 305-310K THETA LAYER. LIFTED
INDICES FROM THE SURFACE AND 800MB LEVELS INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION MAKERS. LIFTED
INDICES OF 6-12 G/KG SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS WELL...
BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH FOR TRYING TO COME UP WITH AN
AMOUNT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE
HIGH PLAINS TROUGH BEGINS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED.
&&

.AVIATION...
    THE BACK END OF A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MAY KEEP
CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION WITH MOISTURE ALOFT LIMITED
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY ATTM. CIGS AROUND THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY
BUT PATCHY MVFR GIGS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$
SPRINGER/13

000
FXUS63 KOAX 061900
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
200 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP...TEMPS...FOG.

LATEST RUC HAS ONE SEGMENT OF A STG JET EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 115+KT JET DIVING INTO MT/WY/CO. THIS JET WILL KEEP THINGS
MOVING AND COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAS
PRODUCED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSRA ACRS THE STATE. SOME LINGERING
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER EXPECT THE BETTER CHC FOR
PRECIP TO REMAIN TO OUR N OR SOUTH. WILL ASSESS OVERNIGHT POPS
BEFORE SENDING OUT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE SOME SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN TRIM BACK TO A SLIGHT CHC LATER TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO RE-DEVELOP. CLDS
WILL COMPLICATE THE FACT THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
FAVORABLE LOW LYING AREAS AND WHERE HIGHER CLDS THIN. THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE CLDS AROUND NORTHEAST ZONES...THUS WILL HIT THE FOG
HARDER CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

AM COUNTING ON A BREAK IN THE PRECIP SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION AND LEFT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER FOR NE NEB INTO WRN IA. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TROF ENERGY IN WRN CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO MT/WY SUN AND ACRS THE PLAINS MON. LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL
FORCING COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS AND
A SECOND AREA IN WY/NW NEB SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONVERGE TO DEVELOP
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FM NEB INTO IA MON. CONTINUE TO BOOST
POPS TO THE LIKELY AND ABOVE CATEGORY FOR AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS GREATEST FM KS INTO MO AND
IL...AND THIS IS WHERE THE DAY3 OUTLOOKS HAS A PROB. FOR SVR.
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOOKED AT HAIL POTENTIAL.
LOW FREEZING LEVELS MOVE IN MON...BUT APPEARS BEST DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT CAN BE FULLY UTILIZED. THE MID
LEVEL TROF SHIFTS TO THE EAST SPREADING THE PRECIP EAST INTO THE
GRTLKS MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

THE EXTENDED FCST TUE NIGHT THRU SAT IS LOOKING MORE SEASONABLE.
A STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING JET AND WAA OVERNIGHT AND WED...THEN MOVE
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THUR. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH IT/S PASSAGE THRU THU MORNING. KEPT
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S WED WITH WRMR SW
FLOW...ALTHOUGH CLDS AND PRECIP WOULD HINDER HIGHS. WENT BELOW
GUID THU BEHIND THE FNT...BUT STILL LEFT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
DECREASING CLDS.

THE PATTERN IS MOSTLY DRY FRI THRU SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
OVR THE REGION FRI AND WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE NRN PLAINS
INTO WRN NEB SAT. HURRICANE IKE IS STILL FCST TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF THRU THE EXTENDED. SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON IT/S TRACK AND WHERE
THE REMNANTS GO...BUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO NOT MAKE IT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED FM THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK. VALID THRU 07/18Z.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ACROSS KOMA/KOFK/AND KLNK SITES
THRU 02-03Z.  WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING. BR IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT
KOMA BEING 3/4 OF A MILE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1-3 MILES AT KOFK
AND KLNK. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER
15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

ZAPOTOCNY/SMITH

000
FXUS63 KGID 061805
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
105 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS LIFT DECREASES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH EVENING. CLOUD DECK WILL LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT SOME SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY /WET/ FORECAST FOR THE CWFA TODAY
AS SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN TODAY...SOME AREAS OF THE
CWFA WILL SEE FAIRLY DECENT RAINFALL...WHILE FOR OTHER AREAS
IT WILL LOOK LIKE RAIN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY SMALL
OR NIL.

THE CURRENT RAIN AREA IN THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS IS HEADED TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST CWFA...SO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE. KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE NAM SHOWED SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /GFS NONE/ AND WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTING AS FAR EAST
JUST NORTH OF OGALLALA. PER 06Z RUN OF THE NAM...SHOWERS/STORMS
IN SOUTHERN KANSAS SEEM TO BE SHOWING A NUDGE NORTHWARD THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. KEPT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE
FAR SOUTH FOR THAT...BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING JUST HOW
FAR NORTH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
AGAIN BE COOL...AND HOLD IN THE 60S AT BEST. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH/EAST CWFA THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE
NIGHT SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A DRY SUNDAY...AND THAT STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE CASE. STILL LOOKS SEASONALLY COOL...DESPITE SOME SUN.
NORTH WINDS OVERTAKE THE CWFA AS DOES WEAK COLD ADVECTION...SO
WOULD EXPECTED 70ISH FOR MOST AREAS AT BEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE THIRD INSTALLMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT THE CWFA. THIS IS ANOTHER SHARP WAVE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. QG ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AT THE LATEST. FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF H250 JET WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHEAST
CWFA WILL SEE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IS FED BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS STILL SOME RISK FOR DRY AIR UNDERCUTTING RAIN
IN THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST CWFA...AS THE NAM REALLY STRUGGLES TO
ACCUMULATE QPF IN THAT AREA INITIALLY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ITS SEEMS MONDAY IS A DAMP DAY...LIKELY QUITE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER RAINFALL COVERAGE POTENTIAL. LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO STRUGGLE FOR THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT
BEST.

WINDS TURN NEARLY CALM LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLEARING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK...SO FOG LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT BET FOR THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AND
FOG WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 061132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
632 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.AVIATION...12Z TAF. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE MAKING THEIR WAY EAST OUT OF THE
SANDHILLS...AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SPEEDS REACHING NEAR 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY /WET/ FORECAST FOR THE CWFA TODAY
AS SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN TODAY...SOME AREAS OF THE
CWFA WILL SEE FAIRLY DECENT RAINFALL...WHILE FOR OTHER AREAS
IT WILL LOOK LIKE RAIN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY SMALL
OR NIL.

THE CURRENT RAIN AREA IN THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS IS HEADED TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST CWFA...SO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE. KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE NAM SHOWED SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /GFS NONE/ AND WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTING AS FAR EAST
JUST NORTH OF OGALLALA. PER 06Z RUN OF THE NAM...SHOWERS/STORMS
IN SOUTHERN KANSAS SEEM TO BE SHOWING A NUDGE NORTHWARD THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. KEPT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE
FAR SOUTH FOR THAT...BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING JUST HOW
FAR NORTH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
AGAIN BE COOL...AND HOLD IN THE 60S AT BEST. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH/EAST CWFA THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE
NIGHT SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A DRY SUNDAY...AND THAT STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE CASE. STILL LOOKS SEASONALLY COOL...DESPITE SOME SUN.
NORTH WINDS OVERTAKE THE CWFA AS DOES WEAK COLD ADVECTION...SO
WOULD EXPECTED 70ISH FOR MOST AREAS AT BEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE THIRD INSTALLMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT THE CWFA. THIS IS ANOTHER SHARP WAVE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. QG ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AT THE LATEST. FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF H250 JET WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHEAST
CWFA WILL SEE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IS FED BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS STILL SOME RISK FOR DRY AIR UNDERCUTTING RAIN
IN THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST CWFA...AS THE NAM REALLY STRUGGLES TO
ACCUMULATE QPF IN THAT AREA INITIALLY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ITS SEEMS MONDAY IS A DAMP DAY...LIKELY QUITE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER RAINFALL COVERAGE POTENTIAL. LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO STRUGGLE FOR THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT
BEST.

WINDS TURN NEARLY CALM LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLEARING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK...SO FOG LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT BET FOR THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AND
FOG WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 061118
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
618 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VSBYS AOB 1/4 MILE HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER EXTREME
EASTERN NEBRASKA...THUS EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVSRY A BIT WWD. CLOUD
PATCHES APPROACHING FROM WEST COULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT BEFORE
14Z EXPIRATION TIME...BUT FELT IT BEST TO ERROR ON ADVSRY SIDE.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDING OAX CWFA INTO MONDAY. SHORTWV
ENERGY MOVG INTO WRN NEBR WAS GENERATING AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVR THAT AREA WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF WAVE GENERATING AN
INCREASING AREA OF CONVECTION OVR SRN/CNTRL KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
NEAR 305 K SFC DEPICTED BY NAM APPEARED TO REASONABLY HANDLE TWO
PCPN AREAS...ALTHOUGH QPF FIELDS FM GFS APPEARED BETTER WITH SRN
CONVECTION AREA...I.E. IT WAS BROUGHT FARTHER NE TDA. ADJUSTED
POPS A BIT TO REFLECT NOT ONLY A HIGHER PCPN AREA SPREADING ACROSS
NRN ZONES THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING BUT ALSO TO INCREASE POPS OVR
SRN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION TO OUR S. OTRW DENSE FOG HAS
FORMED OVR ERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND A DENSE FOG ADVSRY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR IA COUNTIES WHERE INCREASE IN MID/HI CLOUDS WL BE
DELAYED LONGEST. ALSO TRIMMED BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/PCPN.

PCPN CHCS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA TNGT AS SHORTWV ENERGY
SCOOTS BY TO THE EAST WITH GFS/NAM DECREASING LIFT ESPECIALLY AFT
06Z. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DID DEPICT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ASSOCD WITH H5 THERMAL TROUGH NRN ZONES AS IT CROSSES AREA THIS
AFTN/TNGT SO MENTIONED ISOLD TSTMS N.

SUN STILL APPEARS TO DRY OUT BHND TDAS SHORTWV TROUGH BUT LEFT IN
SLGT CHC MOST AREAS WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE. WITH MORE
SUN EXPECTED SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN SAT-MON PD. ON
MONDAY STILL DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN
IN NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE HELPING TO POSSIBLY GENERATE TWO AREAS OF
PCPN. ONE MORE TIED TO UPPER TROUGH AIDED BY UPSLOPE OVR WRN
NEBR/SWRN SD AND THE OTHER IN AREA OF BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
H85 FRONT...PROBABLY JUST S OF NEBR BORDER. SOME REMNANTS OF THIS
PCPN APPEARS IT WL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THUS INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS. WITH COOLISH DAY ON TAP
MONDAY IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH...WHICH APPEARS QUITE LIKELY...
SOME AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 30S BY TUE AM...SPCLY GIVEN THE
FACT THAT SOME READINGS THIS MORNING HAD DROPPED TO MID 40S AND
AIRMASS ARRIVING TUE IS COOLER. TRIMMED BACK LOWS A BIT BUT KEPT
THEM IN LOW 40S AT COOLEST FOR NOW. ALTHO KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A DEG
OR TWO TUE WITH COOL START EXPECTED...NICE REBOUND STILL LIKELY
WITH LOW DWPTS/SUNSHINE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL ON TRACK IN WED-THU PD AS STRONG WARM
ADVCTN ARRIVES LATE TUE NGT FOLLOWED BY A STRONG TROUGH/COLD FRONT
CROSSING NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. LTL/NO CHANGES MADE AS FCST APPEARED ON
RIGHT PATH.

AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK. VALID THRU 07/06Z.

IFR/LIFR VSBY EXPECTED THRU 13Z AT OMA AS FG SETTLES IN ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NEB. MEANWHILE...KOFK AND KLNK WILL LIKELY SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY THRU 13Z. NEXT UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN MAY INDUCE -SHRA WITH ISOLD TS ALONG THE
SD/NEB BORDER...AND MAY AFFECT KOFK BTW 00Z-06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TS IN KOFK TAF DUE TO LOW PROB OF
OCCURRENCE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-033-
     034-044-045-052-053-067-068.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

CHERMOK/DEE

000
FXUS63 KGID 060943
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY /WET/ FORECAST FOR THE CWFA TODAY
AS SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN TODAY...SOME AREAS OF THE
CWFA WILL SEE FAIRLY DECENT RAINFALL...WHILE FOR OTHER AREAS
IT WILL LOOK LIKE RAIN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY SMALL
OR NIL.

THE CURRENT RAIN AREA IN THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS IS HEADED TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST CWFA...SO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE. KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE NAM SHOWED SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /GFS NONE/ AND WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTING AS FAR EAST
JUST NORTH OF OGALLALA. PER 06Z RUN OF THE NAM...SHOWERS/STORMS
IN SOUTHERN KANSAS SEEM TO BE SHOWING A NUDGE NORTHWARD THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. KEPT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE
FAR SOUTH FOR THAT...BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING JUST HOW
FAR NORTH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
AGAIN BE COOL...AND HOLD IN THE 60S AT BEST. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH/EAST CWFA THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE
NIGHT SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A DRY SUNDAY...AND THAT STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE CASE. STILL LOOKS SEASONALLY COOL...DESPITE SOME SUN.
NORTH WINDS OVERTAKE THE CWFA AS DOES WEAK COLD ADVECTION...SO
WOULD EXPECTED 70ISH FOR MOST AREAS AT BEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE THIRD INSTALLMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT THE CWFA. THIS IS ANOTHER SHARP WAVE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. QG ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AT THE LATEST. FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF H250 JET WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHEAST
CWFA WILL SEE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IS FED BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS STILL SOME RISK FOR DRY AIR UNDERCUTTING RAIN
IN THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST CWFA...AS THE NAM REALLY STRUGGLES TO
ACCUMULATE QPF IN THAT AREA INITIALLY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ITS SEEMS MONDAY IS A DAMP DAY...LIKELY QUITE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER RAINFALL COVERAGE POTENTIAL. LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO STRUGGLE FOR THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT
BEST.

WINDS TURN NEARLY CALM LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLEARING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK...SO FOG LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT BET FOR THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AND
FOG WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

AVIATION...06Z TAF. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE HAVE MOVED INTO THE GRI TERMINAL...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES AT THE TERMINAL NOT
REAL HIGH...AND LEFT AS PROB30 GROUP. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 060807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

BROAD MID/UPR LVL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC LOCATED BENEATH THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 115 KT JET STREAK DIVING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...FORCING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL JET...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COOL/STABLE
PBL IS FORCING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FCST TO SURGE NORTH ON THE 305 K ISENTROPIC
SFC OVER SOUTHWEST NEB THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF ALBERTA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...FAVORING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
/THOUGH ITS HARD TO FIND CAPE IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING THE LIGHTNING CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE PANHANDLE/.
A CLEARING TREND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL
OCCUR BENEATH COLD MID LVL AIR SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CWA...WHICH MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FOCUSED ALONG AN AREA OF LOW LVL CONVG
LOCATED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. OTHERWISE...MORNING SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN NEB ARE FCST TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN
SHIFTS THE UPR WAVE EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...WITH
STRONG/DRY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THIS
SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY QUICK END TO PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY.

AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE/EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A STRONG
MERIDIONAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG CONVERGENCE ACTING ON THIS HORIZONTAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS INCREDIBLE LOW TO MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN
ADDITION...INTENSE NORTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ARE PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE MESOSCALE ASCENT
AND RAPIDLY MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY
MORNING.

THE DETERMINISTIC GFS THEN INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA ON MONDAY BEHIND THE PASSING UPR LVL WAVE.
THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED FOR THE MOST PART BY SREF/ECMWF/GEFS AS
WELL. MET GUIDANCE FORECASTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON
MONDAY...COMPARED TO 60S BY THE MAV. AT THIS TIME WILL IGNORE THE
COOLER MET AND MATCH THE MET...WHICH STILL RESULTS IN 2-5 DEG
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING CLOSE TO THE CWA...MONDAY NIGHT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE COLD. HOWEVER...THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH...SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SFC WETNESS WILL BE LARGE
DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...WHICH MAY OFFSET STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. FOG WILL LIKELY BE FAVORED WITH THIS PATTERN...AND HAVE
ADDED IT TO THE FCST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL
MOISTURE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOME MAXIMIZED
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A
PLUME OF WARM H7 AIR. THIS MAY FAVOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SFC CONVG
INCREASES WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...AND IS COLLOCATED WITH A
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN WESTERN NEB. IT IS TEMPTING TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS FCST HAS POPS GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...

RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL
PERSIST AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR HEIGHTS
AFTER 21Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS EAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS...BUT WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL...WILL FORGO MENTION OF TSRAS IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

GARNER/CLB

000
FXUS63 KOAX 060756
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDING OAX CWFA INTO MONDAY. SHORTWV
ENERGY MOVG INTO WRN NEBR WAS GENERATING AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVR THAT AREA WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF WAVE GENERATING AN
INCREASING AREA OF CONVECTION OVR SRN/CNTRL KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
NEAR 305 K SFC DEPICTED BY NAM APPEARED TO REASONABLY HANDLE TWO
PCPN AREAS...ALTHOUGH QPF FIELDS FM GFS APPEARED BETTER WITH SRN
CONVECTION AREA...I.E. IT WAS BROUGHT FARTHER NE TDA. ADJUSTED
POPS A BIT TO REFLECT NOT ONLY A HIGHER PCPN AREA SPREADING ACROSS
NRN ZONES THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING BUT ALSO TO INCREASE POPS OVR
SRN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION TO OUR S. OTRW DENSE FOG HAS
FORMED OVR ERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND A DENSE FOG ADVSRY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR IA COUNTIES WHERE INCREASE IN MID/HI CLOUDS WL BE
DELAYED LONGEST. ALSO TRIMMED BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/PCPN.

PCPN CHCS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA TNGT AS SHORTWV ENERGY
SCOOTS BY TO THE EAST WITH GFS/NAM DECREASING LIFT ESPECIALLY AFT
06Z. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DID DEPICT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ASSOCD WITH H5 THERMAL TROUGH NRN ZONES AS IT CROSSES AREA THIS
AFTN/TNGT SO MENTIONED ISOLD TSTMS N.

SUN STILL APPEARS TO DRY OUT BHND TDAS SHORTWV TROUGH BUT LEFT IN
SLGT CHC MOST AREAS WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE. WITH MORE
SUN EXPECTED SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN SAT-MON PD. ON
MONDAY STILL DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN
IN NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE HELPING TO POSSIBLY GENERATE TWO AREAS OF
PCPN. ONE MORE TIED TO UPPER TROUGH AIDED BY UPSLOPE OVR WRN
NEBR/SWRN SD AND THE OTHER IN AREA OF BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
H85 FRONT...PROBABLY JUST S OF NEBR BORDER. SOME REMNANTS OF THIS
PCPN APPEARS IT WL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THUS INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS. WITH COOLISH DAY ON TAP
MONDAY IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH...WHICH APPEARS QUITE LIKELY...
SOME AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 30S BY TUE AM...SPCLY GIVEN THE
FACT THAT SOME READINGS THIS MORNING HAD DROPPED TO MID 40S AND
AIRMASS ARRIVING TUE IS COOLER. TRIMMED BACK LOWS A BIT BUT KEPT
THEM IN LOW 40S AT COOLEST FOR NOW. ALTHO KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A DEG
OR TWO TUE WITH COOL START EXPECTED...NICE REBOUND STILL LIKELY
WITH LOW DWPTS/SUNSHINE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL ON TRACK IN WED-THU PD AS STRONG WARM
ADVCTN ARRIVES LATE TUE NGT FOLLOWED BY A STRONG TROUGH/COLD FRONT
CROSSING NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. LTL/NO CHANGES MADE AS FCST APPEARED ON
RIGHT PATH.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK. VALID THRU 07/06Z.

IFR/LIFR VSBY EXPECTED THRU 13Z AT OMA AS FG SETTLES IN ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NEB. MEANWHILE...KOFK AND KLNK WILL LIKELY SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY THRU 13Z. NEXT UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN MAY INDUCE -SHRA WITH ISOLD TS ALONG THE
SD/NEB BORDER...AND MAY AFFECT KOFK BTW 00Z-06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TS IN KOFK TAF DUE TO LOW PROB OF
OCCURRENCE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

CHERMOK/DEE

000
FXUS63 KGID 060527
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE HAVE MOVED INTO THE GRI TERMINAL...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES AT THE TERMINAL NOT
REAL HIGH...AND LEFT AS PROB30 GROUP. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY.

MOST PROMINENT FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORT
WAVE CAME THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE SHOULD MAKE
FOR A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A VERY LIGHT
RAIN TO HEAVY DRIZZLE KIND OF SET UP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH SATURDAY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE MID
60S. LIFT BEGINS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUS WILL ALSO
DECREASE POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...BEGINNING 12Z SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TO START THE PERIOD...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATING SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AT 12Z
SUNDAY THUS CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
SEEING AS HOW THIS IS THE ONLY FORCING IN THE AREA...OPTED TO KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WHILE TRIMMING
BACK POPS ELSEWHERE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT
WAVE WITHIN A BUSY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVERHEAD. WAA AND
DPVA OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPEAR GREATEST THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION AS WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEM PRUDENT ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARDS A 40 KT LLJ NOSING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY CONTINUE PASSING OVERHEAD. INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST AND DECIDED TO LEAVE
THOSE AS IS. OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED
30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND IF THE GFS VERIFIES
THIS IS NO PROBLEM. AM CONCERNED HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND THE FORECAST
UPDATED IF MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS POINTING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS...PRECIPITATION AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE 60S. WARMER WEATHER IS THEN
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RISING BACK
INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 052319
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE 00Z TAF INCLUDE
CLOUDS...AND THEN CHANCES OF FOG AND RAIN. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO
DECREASE...AND OVERALL THINK THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO
INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONCE
CONCERN FOR LATER TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG WITH A PERIOD
OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND QUICKLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL ONLY
BRING IN A SMALL VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES
WILL AGAIN ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER THAT FOR NOW...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG
THE RAIN WILL LAST IS NOT VERY HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY.

MOST PROMINENT FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORT
WAVE CAME THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE SHOULD MAKE
FOR A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A VERY LIGHT
RAIN TO HEAVY DRIZZLE KIND OF SET UP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH SATURDAY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE MID
60S. LIFT BEGINS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUS WILL ALSO
DECREASE POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...BEGINNING 12Z SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TO START THE PERIOD...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATING SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AT 12Z
SUNDAY THUS CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
SEEING AS HOW THIS IS THE ONLY FORCING IN THE AREA...OPTED TO KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WHILE TRIMMING
BACK POPS ELSEWHERE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT
WAVE WITHIN A BUSY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVERHEAD. WAA AND
DPVA OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPEAR GREATEST THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION AS WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEM PRUDENT ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARDS A 40 KT LLJ NOSING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY CONTINUE PASSING OVERHEAD. INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST AND DECIDED TO LEAVE
THOSE AS IS. OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED
30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND IF THE GFS VERIFIES
THIS IS NO PROBLEM. AM CONCERNED HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND THE FORECAST
UPDATED IF MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS POINTING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS...PRECIPITATION AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE 60S. WARMER WEATHER IS THEN
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RISING BACK
INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 052037
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND TIMING OF PRECIP ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

TODAY/S FCST IS ON TRACK WITH LIGHT RAIN OVR THE CWA AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY
SHOWS COLD AIR CU MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF
AND COLD AIR ALOFT ACRS THE REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS
THE CDFNT SE OF RDK AND AFK.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THEN DECREASING
CLDS...HOWEVER THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN HEADING INTO
MONTANA FOR SATURDAY. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND DECREASING CLDS WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLODUS SHOULD MOVE IN AGAIN BY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY...THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD H85 THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
EVENING. THE Q-G FORCING HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH...HOWEVER HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LOWEST CHC FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN OVR THE FAR SW OAX ZONES. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR
SAT THINKING TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE CLDS AND PRECIP MOVING
IN WITH LOWER 60S WRN ZONES TO AROUND 70 SE. INCREASE THE CLDS
THEN BRING THE PRECIP INTO THE WEST SAT MORNING. INCREASED TO
LIKELY POPS SAT NIGHT...AND THEN MOVE IT OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA SUN
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY...SO HELD ON TO PRECIP CHANCES...THEN
LONGWAVE TROF SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP.
RETURN FLOW AND WAA LOOKS STRONGER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN MORE SW FLOW ALOFT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BOOST
POPS FURTHER IF TRENDS CONTINUE...BUT AT LEAST HAVE A CHC IN FOR
NOW. SFC FRONT ON TRACK FOR WED NIGHT AND THUR WITH CHC. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLDS...BUT COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH WARMER MID AND UPR 70S.  IT LOOKS LIKE MORE
CONSENSUS TODAY THAT THE FNT AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE S FOR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE WITH PCPN MOVING OUT BY EVENING. ALL
THREE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST PCPN. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE...AND
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

ZAPOTOCNY/MILLER

000
FXUS63 KGID 051959
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY.

MOST PROMINENT FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORT
WAVE CAME THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE SHOULD MAKE
FOR A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A VERY LIGHT
RAIN TO HEAVY DRIZZLE KIND OF SET UP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH SATURDAY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE MID
60S. LIFT BEGINS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUS WILL ALSO
DECREASE POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...BEGINNING 12Z SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TO START THE PERIOD...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATING SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AT 12Z
SUNDAY THUS CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
SEEING AS HOW THIS IS THE ONLY FORCING IN THE AREA...OPTED TO KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WHILE TRIMMING
BACK POPS ELSEWHERE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT
WAVE WITHIN A BUSY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVERHEAD. WAA AND
DPVA OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPEAR GREATEST THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION AS WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEM PRUDENT ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARDS A 40 KT LLJ NOSING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY CONTINUE PASSING OVERHEAD. INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST AND DECIDED TO LEAVE
THOSE AS IS. OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED
30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND IF THE GFS VERIFIES
THIS IS NO PROBLEM. AM CONCERNED HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND THE FORECAST
UPDATED IF MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS POINTING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS...PRECIPITATION AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE 60S. WARMER WEATHER IS THEN
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RISING BACK
INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AT THE
KGRI TERMINAL BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA...SCATTERING OUT AROUND 8000 FT AGL BY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 051942
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
242 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SUGGESTS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER ID...NWRN WY AND WRN
MT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUFFER DATA SUGGESTS A GENERALLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MARKED DOWN INTO THE 60S AS H7
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEAR FREEZING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST PRODUCING RAIN IN THE MORNING WEST WITH CLEARING IN THE
AFTER WHILE THE EAST GETS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SATURDAY. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR SUNDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SETS UP TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
PRODUCING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
DEVELOPS SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS COOL AUTUMN AIR REMAINS IN POSITION TO
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS PRODUCING WINDY
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS AND IT APPEARS THURSDAY COULD BE WINDY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FRIDAY
AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN U.S.

THE FCST GENERALLY USES BLENDED DATA AND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...SKIES
AND POPS THROUGH MONDAY. QPF USED BLENDED DATA BUT THE AMOUNTS WERE
REDUCED BY 1/2 IN LIEU OF THE RECENT WET BIAS THE GFS AND NAM12
SHOWED. THE HPC PROVIDED GRIDS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO MO VALLEY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN LOW
LAYERS COMBINED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS ALLOWED CU/STCU
DECK TO REFORM BEHIND SYSTEM WITH SCT-BKN CIGS...BUT THESE ARE IN
THE VFR CAT ATTM. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. SCT -SHRA SHOULD SPREAD OUT OF BLACK HILLS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA SAT MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS MY OCCUR WITH
RESTRICTIONS TO BOTH VSBY AND LOWERING CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
WORK ACROSS THE SAND HILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR AND SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CDC/13

000
FXUS63 KGID 051655
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. AS
OF AROUND THE NOON HOUR...RAIN SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SPRINKLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND ONGOING TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AT THE
KGRI TERMINAL BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA...SCATTERING OUT AROUND 8000 FT AGL BY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/

DISCUSSION...AS GENERALLY EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA. THE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING...
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 305K...AND LOOSELY INFLUENCED BY FAVORABLE
JET STRUCTURE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONTINUED WITH HIGH RISK FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. THE EASTERN CWFA WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO SHARE
IN THE RAIN SOME INITIALLY DRY AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK/ZERO FOR NEARLY ALL THE CWFA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWFA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GOODLAND AREA. WHILE I AM NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT ADDING A STORM RISK...THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL
OUTSIDE SHOT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD GET CLIPPED BY A STORM OR
TWO. SUCH AN IDEA SEEMS GO ALONG WITH NEARBY/NEIGHBORHOOD THINKING
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH.

TO ME...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 9 TO 12 HOUR EVENT...AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ENDS BY 21Z FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. TAPERED RAIN CHANCES OFF
AFTER 21Z ALL AREAS...AND ONLY KEPT A VERY SMALL RISK FOR AN
EARLY EVENING SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA.

WITH LITTLE CONTINUITY FROM THIS FORECASTER...WAS RELUCTANT TO MAKE
BIG CHANCES TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...DESPITE MORE RECENT MODELS
RUNS POINTING TOWARD SOME NEEDED CHANGES. DID START AN INCREASE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY...AS NAM IS POINTING TOWARD A BROAD
AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ENHANCED BY A SURGING JET
STREAK NOSING INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY. ONCE THAT PASSES...SUNDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE CWFA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MONDAY IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING WETTER AS ONE MORE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
CWFA. ALL THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN THE NEXT RUN COMES THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
COLD ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF TEMPERATURE
REBOUND IN THE WESTERN AREAS IF THEY CAN CLEAR OUT A BIT BEFORE
THE EVENING HOURS. ANYWAY...SATURDAY IS ALSO LOOKING COOL AS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION COME INTO PLAY. LOWERED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 051143
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
643 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.AVIATION...12Z TAF. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY. EXPECTING CIGS/VIS TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/

DISCUSSION...AS GENERALLY EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA. THE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING...
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 305K...AND LOOSELY INFLUENCED BY FAVORABLE
JET STRUCTURE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONTINUED WITH HIGH RISK FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. THE EASTERN CWFA WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO SHARE
IN THE RAIN SOME INITIALLY DRY AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK/ZERO FOR NEARLY ALL THE CWFA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWFA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GOODLAND AREA. WHILE I AM NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT ADDING A STORM RISK...THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL
OUTSIDE SHOT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD GET CLIPPED BY A STORM OR
TWO. SUCH AN IDEA SEEMS GO ALONG WITH NEARBY/NEIGHBORHOOD THINKING
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH.

TO ME...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 9 TO 12 HOUR EVENT...AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ENDS BY 21Z FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. TAPERED RAIN CHANCES OFF
AFTER 21Z ALL AREAS...AND ONLY KEPT A VERY SMALL RISK FOR AN
EARLY EVENING SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA.

WITH LITTLE CONTINUITY FROM THIS FORECASTER...WAS RELUCTANT TO MAKE
BIG CHANCES TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...DESPITE MORE RECENT MODELS
RUNS POINTING TOWARD SOME NEEDED CHANGES. DID START AN INCREASE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY...AS NAM IS POINTING TOWARD A BROAD
AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ENHANCED BY A SURGING JET
STREAK NOSING INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY. ONCE THAT PASSES...SUNDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE CWFA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MONDAY IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING WETTER AS ONE MORE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
CWFA. ALL THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN THE NEXT RUN COMES THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
COLD ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF TEMPERATURE
REBOUND IN THE WESTERN AREAS IF THEY CAN CLEAR OUT A BIT BEFORE
THE EVENING HOURS. ANYWAY...SATURDAY IS ALSO LOOKING COOL AS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION COME INTO PLAY. LOWERED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 050928
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
428 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...AS GENERALLY EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA. THE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING...
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 305K...AND LOOSELY INFLUENCED BY FAVORABLE
JET STRUCTURE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONTINUED WITH HIGH RISK FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. THE EASTERN CWFA WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO SHARE
IN THE RAIN SOME INITIALLY DRY AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK/ZERO FOR NEARLY ALL THE CWFA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWFA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GOODLAND AREA. WHILE I AM NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT ADDING A STORM RISK...THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL
OUTSIDE SHOT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD GET CLIPPED BY A STORM OR
TWO. SUCH AN IDEA SEEMS GO ALONG WITH NEARBY/NEIGHBORHOOD THINKING
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH.

TO ME...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 9 TO 12 HOUR EVENT...AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ENDS BY 21Z FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. TAPERED RAIN CHANCES OFF
AFTER 21Z ALL AREAS...AND ONLY KEPT A VERY SMALL RISK FOR AN
EARLY EVENING SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA.

WITH LITTLE CONTINUITY FROM THIS FORECASTER...WAS RELUCTANT TO MAKE
BIG CHANCES TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...DESPITE MORE RECENT MODELS
RUNS POINTING TOWARD SOME NEEDED CHANGES. DID START AN INCREASE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY...AS NAM IS POINTING TOWARD A BROAD
AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ENHANCED BY A SURGING JET
STREAK NOSING INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY. ONCE THAT PASSES...SUNDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE CWFA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MONDAY IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING WETTER AS ONE MORE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
CWFA. ALL THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN THE NEXT RUN COMES THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
COLD ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF TEMPERATURE
REBOUND IN THE WESTERN AREAS IF THEY CAN CLEAR OUT A BIT BEFORE
THE EVENING HOURS. ANYWAY...SATURDAY IS ALSO LOOKING COOL AS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION COME INTO PLAY. LOWERED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/

AVIATION...06Z TAF. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO GET TO THE GRI
TERMINAL NEAR MID MORNING...LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING CIGS/VIS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR CAT
FOR A MAJORITY OF DAY AS SHOWERS MOVE IN...BUT IS POSSIBLE CIGS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS SHIFT SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 050848
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM. TODAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
SHOWERS TO PRODUCE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL BEFORE
LIFT DIMINISHES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS AS BROAD TROUGH AND EMBEDDED ENERGY
BRINGS AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO THE AREA. AT 07Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NEB
PANHANDLE AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA. RAIN SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING EAST WITH AREAL COVERAGE
NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED DUE TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS EARLY SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO
THE MORNING. THEN BY NOONTIME THE 300K ISENTROPIC SHOWS LIFT
DIMINISHES AND DOWNGLIDE WINDS INCREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...LOW POPS RETAINED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS JET DYNAMICS AND EMBEDDED WAVES SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES
USED A MODEL BLEND AS SOME BREAKS INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO READINGS AROUND 60.

TONIGHT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST HIGH PLAINS
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLE BY MORNING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY. ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL FOCUS BETTER FORCING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR
HIGHER POPS. THEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS UNTIL BEYOND
MONDAY WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TO THE PLAINS. UNTIL THEN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A WETTER PATTERN WILL INCREASE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST MONDAY GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND SHOWER CHANCES HIGHLIGHT AVIATION FORECASTING CONCERNS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WITH PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TODAY WITH HEIGHTS DROPPING TO THE 2000 TO
3000 FOOT RANGE FOR KLBF AND 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE FOR KVTN. VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND DECREASING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPREADS CLOUDINESS
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL AND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TODAY
WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

KECK/CLB

000
FXUS63 KOAX 050748
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
248 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY COOL...BASED ON TIMING OF
EMBEDDED WAVES...WX. MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THESE WAVES...ESPECIALLY AFTER TDA.

FIRST SHORTWV ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NEBR/NWRN KS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 305 K SFC WAS GENERATING CLOUDS WHICH WERE
SPREADING INTO NWRN ZONES AS OF 0730Z AND SCT PCPN APPROACHING
CNTRL NEBR. CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD CONT SPREADING EWD THRU AFTN AND
MADE A SLGT ADJUSTMENT IN TIMING...DELAYING CHCS FAR ERN ZONES
TILL AFT MID MORNING. OTHERWISE LIKELY POPS AT LEAST MOST AREAS
FOR SOME PD TDA...ALTHOUGH LIFT/FORCING REALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
E OF THE CWFA BY 00Z. SO OTHER THAN LINGERING A SLGT CHC ERN
ZONES THIS EVENING WILL GO DRY MUCH OF TNGT. WITH FAR SERN ZONES
POTENTIALLY DRY TILL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AND THEN PCPN
WEAKENING...WL LEAVE AROUND 70/LOWER 70S IN FCST FOR HIGHS THERE.
KEPT READINGS COOLER...GENERALLY LOW/MID 60S MUCH OF WRN ZONES
WHERE CLOUDS/PCPN WL ARRIVE SOONEST AND LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO
LIMIT HTG. IF CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH TNGT FOG WILL PROBABLY BE AN
ISSUE...BUT RIGHT NOW LEFT OUT.

ANOTHER WAVE FCST TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER TROUGH SAT..WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT...SPCLY BY AFTN WHERE CHC POPS
WERE MENTIONED. NAM WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH BOTH AND IF IT WOULD
VERIFY READINGS MAY NEED TRIMMING BACK FM UPR 60S/L0WER 70S WHICH
FIT MORE WITH GFS/PREV FCST. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN WAVES ON SUN...SPCLY PER NAM WHICH WAS STRONGER WITH
THE ONE ON SAT AND THUS BROUGHT IN A BIT OF SLIGHT SHORTWV RIDGING
OVR CWA SUN. THUS KEPT POPS IN SLGT CHC RANGE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPS.

NEXT WAVE...IN THIS STRING ANYWAY...ARRIVES MONDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT WARRANTS HIGHER POPS SUN NGT AND KEPT
THESE HIGHER POPS GOING SERN ZONES MONDAY. FOR NWRN ZONES ON MON
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE PCPN GENERATED SUNDAY
NGT HOLDS TOGETHER...IF A LOT...POPS MON NW WL NEED INCREASING IN
FUTURE FCSTS AND HIGHS MAY NEED TRIMMING.

LTL/NO CHANGES TO TUE-THU PD...TUE LOOKS LIKE ONLY NEARLY CERTAIN
DRY DAY WITH MORE DISTURBANCES THEN MOVING ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS FM
WED THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK. VALID THRU 06/06Z.

VFR COND PREVAIL THRU THE PD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FL030/-SHRA
EXPECTED BTW 18Z-24Z WHEN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE PLAINS
PUSHES SFC BNDRY THRU ERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

CHERMOK/DEE

000
FXUS63 KGID 050503
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1203 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO GET TO THE GRI
TERMINAL NEAR MID MORNING...LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING CIGS/VIS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR CAT
FOR A MAJORITY OF DAY AS SHOWERS MOVE IN...BUT IS POSSIBLE CIGS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS SHIFT SOUTH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/

SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE COOL AND WET FORECAST FRIDAY.  A QUIET
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED INITIALLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM ADVANCING EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WY/CO.
CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER 06Z IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS INDICATED
ON THE 305K SURFACE.  THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND ENTERS OUR WESTERN CWA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON...AS WELL
AS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE H7 TO H5 LAYER. GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES LOOK MORE
THAN LIKELY AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. LOOKING AT THE
INSTABILITY PROGS...THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY AT ALL AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
COOLER AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE UPPER 60S. SOME OF THESE MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL LOWS THAN HIGHS.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FORECAST DRIES IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WHILE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
SOUTH.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS
WEEK WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN OVERALL COOL PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH RAIN CHANCES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WHILE INSTABILITY IS
NEARLY NON EXISTENT. NONE OF THE SHORTWAVES ARE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN ANY MODEL RUN...WHICH SUPPORTS FOR THE MOST PART ONLY SLIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SLIGHT POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND THEN END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY MAKES
THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY AND WILL CONTINUE TO JUST GO WITH THE SLIGHT
POPS FOR COOL RAIN SHOWERS. THE KEY WORD FOR THE WEEKEND REALLY
WOULD HAVE TO BE...COOL. WHETHER IT RAINS OR NOT...THIS WILL BE A
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S THANKS
TO A SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR AND CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR DRY WEATHER. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
DEPARTS AND A NEW UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS A
POSSIBILITY. A FEW OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVEN BE SEVERE
DEPENDING ON HOW SEVERAL FACTORS PLAY OUT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$