[top]
000
FXUS65 KABQ 221556
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
956 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
.UPDATE...
GRIDS AND FORECAST ZONE PRODUCTS UPDATED. UPPER LOW HAS ENCROACHED
A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BRINGING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO A MORE AREAS ACROSS WEST AND
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...
FAST MOVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT
IN SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS AND SOME VERY LOCAL MVFR CIGS OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHILE EASTERN
AREAS HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED THE HIGHER WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 50 KT PARTICULARLY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...
AFTER REVIEWING SOME OF THE INITIAL NEW MODEL DATA AND CURRENT CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ESTANCIA BASIN AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS FOR TODAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GET DOWN TO AROUND 15 PCT
BUT DONT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE 3 HOURS OF LOW RH COMBINED WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY...CHUPADERA
MESA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARDING COUNTY. PUBLIC FORECASTER ALSO
TWEAKED THE PRECIPITATION AREA AND POPS THUS ADJUSTING THE LAL
SOMEWHAT. WIND FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY VALID AND HAVENT ADJUSTED THAT
FORECAST. AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER THE WINDS FOR A PERIOD BUT
WHEN SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT...LOOK FOR GUSTIER WINDS. STRONG GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORMS.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST THUS PROVIDING SOME DRYING ACROSS
CENTRAL AREAS. LOOKS MORE WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ISSUING A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008...
MASSIVE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW DEVELOPING TO W OF NM PRETTY MUCH AS
PROGGED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SO FAR SEEMS
TO BE FAVORING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM AS EVEN KABQ PICKED UP A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AND RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING SOME PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE JEMEZ SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THAT IN
MIND DECIDED TO RAISE MOST POPS 10 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE NW HALF OF CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS BEING PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ACTED ON TO A LARGE DEGREE BY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HEATING LATER TODAY SHOULD DEVELOP A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIOS REGION. BIGGER STORY...THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD AS ON WED...WILL BE THE WINDS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF CWA. SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY...RISK OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS
LESS THAN WED...BUT COULD COME CLOSE A TIME OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR
NE. STARTING FRI OR FRI NIGHT AS SYSTEM TO WEST CONTINUES ITS
EVOLUTION...A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF BOTH THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX AND
ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN. EVENTUALLY WARMING WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL THE
STATE STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE DRYLINE MAY EVEN POKE INTO
THE E PORTION OF THE STATE.
.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN SOME MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AND SOME VERY LOCAL MVFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE STATE. THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z...LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 TO 55 KT PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 05
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. TODAY...WINDS TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 1Z AND 15Z THOUGH RH
VALUES WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVEL AFTER 18Z. ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...RH REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...BENEFICIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ005>007-010>013-015>021-026.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ108.
&&
$$
01/50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 220913 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
CORRECTED TO ADD AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
.DISCUSSION...
MASSIVE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW DEVELOPING TO W OF NM PRETTY MUCH AS
PROGGED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SO FAR SEEMS
TO BE FAVORING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM AS EVEN KABQ PICKED UP A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AND RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING SOME PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE JEMEZ SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THAT IN
MIND DECIDED TO RAISE MOST POPS 10 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE NW HALF OF CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS BEING PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ACTED ON TO A LARGE DEGREE BY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HEATING LATER TODAY SHOULD DEVELOP A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIOS REGION. BIGGER STORY...THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD AS ON WED...WILL BE THE WINDS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF CWA. SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY...RISK OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS
LESS THAN WED...BUT COULD COME CLOSE A TIME OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR
NE. STARTING FRI OR FRI NIGHT AS SYSTEM TO WEST CONTINUES ITS
EVOLUTION...A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF BOTH THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX AND
ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN. EVENTUALLY WARMING WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL THE
STATE STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE DRYLINE MAY EVEN POKE INTO
THE E PORTION OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN SOME MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AND SOME VERY LOCAL MVFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE STATE. THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z...LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 TO 55 KT PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 05
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. TODAY...WINDS TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 1Z AND 15Z THOUGH RH
VALUES WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVEL AFTER 18Z. ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...RH REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...BENEFICIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 64 43 66 42 / 40 50 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 57 40 61 36 / 40 50 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 64 40 63 36 / 40 40 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 72 47 74 45 / 20 20 20 10
CHAMA........................... 59 30 58 32 / 50 50 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 39 62 38 / 30 30 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 59 30 57 30 / 30 30 10 20
TAOS............................ 67 38 67 37 / 20 30 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 65 42 67 40 / 20 30 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 68 42 69 42 / 20 30 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 72 44 73 45 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 49 73 50 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 45 74 47 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 45 73 49 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 47 80 49 / 30 30 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 77 51 79 49 / 5 10 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 35 66 38 / 30 30 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 42 69 45 / 20 20 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 72 45 69 42 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 71 39 70 40 / 10 20 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 41 67 42 / 10 20 0 5
ROY............................. 73 46 70 48 / 5 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 78 49 80 51 / 5 5 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 49 80 50 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 54 82 55 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 87 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 89 54 88 56 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 93 56 89 56 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ005>007-010>013-015>021-026.
&&
$$
43/05
000
FXUS65 KABQ 220901
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MASSIVE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW DEVELOPING TO W OF NM PRETTY MUCH AS
PROGGED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SO FAR SEEMS
TO BE FAVORING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM AS EVEN KABQ PICKED UP A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AND RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING SOME PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE JEMEZ SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THAT IN
MIND DECIDED TO RAISE MOST POPS 10 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE NW HALF OF CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS BEING PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ACTED ON TO A LARGE DEGREE BY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HEATING LATER TODAY SHOULD DEVELOP A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIOS REGION. BIGGER STORY...THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD AS ON WED...WILL BE THE WINDS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF CWA. SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY...RISK OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS
LESS THAN WED...BUT COULD COME CLOSE A TIME OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR
NE. STARTING FRI OR FRI NIGHT AS SYSTEM TO WEST CONTINUES ITS
EVOLUTION...A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF BOTH THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX AND
ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN. EVENTUALLY WARMING WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL THE
STATE STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE DRYLINE MAY EVEN POKE INTO
THE E PORTION OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 05
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 64 43 66 42 / 40 50 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 57 40 61 36 / 40 50 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 64 40 63 36 / 40 40 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 72 47 74 45 / 20 20 20 10
CHAMA........................... 59 30 58 32 / 50 50 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 39 62 38 / 30 30 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 59 30 57 30 / 30 30 10 20
TAOS............................ 67 38 67 37 / 20 30 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 65 42 67 40 / 20 30 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 68 42 69 42 / 20 30 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 72 44 73 45 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 49 73 50 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 45 74 47 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 45 73 49 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 47 80 49 / 30 30 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 77 51 79 49 / 5 10 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 35 66 38 / 30 30 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 42 69 45 / 20 20 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 72 45 69 42 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 71 39 70 40 / 10 20 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 41 67 42 / 10 20 0 5
ROY............................. 73 46 70 48 / 5 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 78 49 80 51 / 5 5 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 49 80 50 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 54 82 55 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 87 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 89 54 88 56 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 93 56 89 56 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ005>007-010>013-015>021-026.
&&
$$
43/05
000
FXUS65 KABQ 212101
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NEW MEXICO IS IN A CULL BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
AIRMASS TO THE WEST AND THE STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH AND AIRMASS
TO THE EAST. THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE 552 DM 500 MB PACIFIC TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN...
PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH UTAH...NEVADA AND ARIZONA.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND A DEVELOPING 75-90 KNOT
MID-LEVEL JET CORE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...THE
WIND ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED THIS MORNING TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A PAUCITY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH.
HOWEVER...IT AND THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO REMAIN THE
BEST SOURCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN NEW MEXICO WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH EARLY SATURDAY...ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE SAME AREAS...GENERATING HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY THEN STALLS
FRIDAY OVER UTAH AGAINST THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
RETROGRADES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EXTEND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF LONG RANGE
FORECASTS INDICATE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
SUSTAINED READINGS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45
KT WILL BE COMMONPLACE. SOME GUSTS UP TO 53 KT POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
THIRD LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...LOW
HUMIDITY READINGS AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL FUEL THIS EVENT.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO EDGE
IN TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND EXPECT ENOUGH LIGHTNING TO
EVENTUALLY WARRANT A LAL 6 FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WETTER STORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NUDGES CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL KICK UP EARLY WHILE HUMIDITIES EVENTUALLY DIVE
DOWN INTO THE TEENS. TIMING OF THE ACTUAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT SUBJECTIVE BUT FIGURE THAT BY NOON...CRITERIA WILL BE MET.
LOOKING FOR 1 HOUR OF CRITICAL CRITERIA FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE SAN
AGUSTIN PLAIN WHILE 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS AND SOME PRECIPITATION WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD COULD RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION SUCH AS
BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.45 INCHES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER COULD MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THIS MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHILE COOLER WEATHER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH AS WELL.
THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO LONG RANGE MODELS AS
FAR AS THIS WEEKEND/S WEATHER GOES. THE BOTTOM-LINE THOUGH IS THAT
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE DRY
LINE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WINDS WILL ALSO LESSEN A BIT BUT
REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 67 43 67 / 30 40 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 43 61 39 58 / 30 30 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 44 67 40 62 / 20 20 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 52 75 47 73 / 5 10 20 20
CHAMA........................... 34 61 31 58 / 30 40 40 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 63 40 61 / 10 20 30 10
RED RIVER....................... 37 59 32 56 / 20 30 30 10
TAOS............................ 44 68 39 66 / 5 20 30 10
SANTA FE........................ 48 67 42 66 / 5 20 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 70 42 68 / 0 20 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 45 74 44 72 / 5 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 75 51 72 / 5 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 71 47 73 / 5 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 71 47 72 / 5 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 78 49 79 / 5 20 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 56 79 51 78 / 5 0 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 65 37 65 / 5 20 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 69 43 68 / 0 10 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 70 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 48 71 43 70 / 5 5 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 67 41 65 / 0 10 10 0
ROY............................. 50 73 47 69 / 0 5 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 54 80 48 80 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 56 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 88 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ001>003-013-018>021.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ004>012-014>017-026.
&&
$$
01/50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 211615
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1015 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008
.UPDATE...
OUR CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FROM NOON TO 10 PM TODAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN..CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SHOW INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND A
DEVELOPING MIDDLE LEVEL JET CORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF CONCERN. IT APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS
HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS FOR TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND UP SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS AN EXTRA 5 MPH. THAT WILL PUT GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
ACROSS SOME AREAS. THE OTHER ITEM HAS TO DO WITH A DRIER
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK FOR NORTHWEST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THE SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A LAL OF 6 FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...BASICALLY 3 FIRE WEATHER ZONES. VERY STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...631 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008...
A LOT GOING ON WEATHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT 2 TO
PERHAPS 3 DAYS FEATURING WIND AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARGUABLY THE MAIN FEATURES. THE EVOLUTION OF THE RATHER LATE IN
THE SEASON UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEMS ON TRACK...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME PCPN INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NEAR TO MID TERM
NUMERICAL MODELS. TREND THOUGH FAVORS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTER SHOWERS AND T STORMS FOR W CENTRAL NW AND N CENTRAL NM
AFTER TODAY INTO AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT WILL
PRIMARILY BE A TOP DOWN WETTING WITH THE COOLING TREND ALSO
HELPING TO RAISE RH VALUES. SUSTAINED WINDS LATE AM TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH FOR ALL THE FCST
AREA SO WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE ACTUAL
WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT BEING UPDATED A LITTLE WAYS BEFORE IT
EXPIRES AT 14Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A WESTWARD RETREAT IN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE CONCERNED
WITH DRYLINE PENETRATION INTO SOME PART OF E NM THEN.
.AVIATION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FORECAST FOR THE WINDY
DAY AHEAD. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE EXPECT TO MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS COULD BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL IN
TAFS. WATCH FOR TAF UPDATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WE GAIN GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 44
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM STRATTLES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF
A LOBE OF VORTICITY THAT WILL SWEEP WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. THUS...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A RED FLAG
WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. HIGH HAINES
INDICES WILL ACCOMPANY THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT
THOSE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS EVENINGS
SHORT WAVE. THIS EVENINGS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO TRIGGER A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM GALLUP TO GRANTS AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS.
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THIS EVENING...HUMIDITIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO COME UP SOME IN THE WEST AND NORTH...AND THE POLAR
JET WILL TAKE A POSITION THAT FAVORS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...NORTHEAST PLAINS...SANDIA/MANZANO AND GALLINAS
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE JET ALREADY OVERHEAD
AS THE SUN RISES...THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
EACH DAY. THUS...WE WILL START THURSDAYS FIRE WEATHER WATCH A COUPLE
HOURS SOONER THAN WHEN ORIGINALLY ISSUED. SINCE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY BEING A WINDY AND DRY DAY...WILL
ALSO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH THIS MORNINGS FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
AFTER SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND PERHAPS RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE BREEZES AND
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES MAY PERSIST.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ001>003-013-018>021.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ004>012-014>017-026.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS65 KABQ 211231 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
631 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008
UPDATED TO AUGMENT FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...
A LOT GOING ON WEATHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT 2 TO
PERHAPS 3 DAYS FEATURING WIND AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARGUABLY THE MAIN FEATURES. THE EVOLUTION OF THE RATHER LATE IN
THE SEASON UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEMS ON TRACK...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME PCPN INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NEAR TO MID TERM
NUMERICAL MODELS. TREND THOUGH FAVORS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTER SHOWERS AND T STORMS FOR W CENTRAL NW AND N CENTRAL NM
AFTER TODAY INTO AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT WILL
PRIMARILY BE A TOP DOWN WETTING WITH THE COOLING TREND ALSO
HELPING TO RAISE RH VALUES. SUSTAINED WINDS LATE AM TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH FOR ALL THE FCST
AREA SO WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE ACTUAL
WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT BEING UPDATED A LITTLE WAYS BEFORE IT
EXPIRES AT 14Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A WESTWARD RETREAT IN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE CONCERNED
WITH DRYLINE PENETRATION INTO SOME PART OF E NM THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FORECAST FOR THE WINDY
DAY AHEAD. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE EXPECT TO MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS COULD BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL IN
TAFS. WATCH FOR TAF UPDATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WE GAIN GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM STRATTLES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF
A LOBE OF VORTICITY THAT WILL SWEEP WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. THUS...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A RED FLAG
WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. HIGH HAINES
INDICES WILL ACCOMPANY THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT
THOSE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS EVENINGS
SHORT WAVE. THIS EVENINGS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO TRIGGER A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM GALLUP TO GRANTS AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS.
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THIS EVENING...HUMIDITIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO COME UP SOME IN THE WEST AND NORTH...AND THE POLAR
JET WILL TAKE A POSITION THAT FAVORS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...NORTHEAST PLAINS...SANDIA/MANZANO AND GALLINAS
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE JET ALREADY OVERHEAD
AS THE SUN RISES...THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
EACH DAY. THUS...WE WILL START THURSDAYS FIRE WEATHER WATCH A COUPLE
HOURS SOONER THAN WHEN ORIGINALLY ISSUED. SINCE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY BEING A WINDY AND DRY DAY...WILL
ALSO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH THIS MORNINGS FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
AFTER SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND PERHAPS RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE BREEZES AND
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES MAY PERSIST.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 83 49 67 43 / 5 30 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 77 43 61 39 / 5 30 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 80 44 67 40 / 5 20 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 89 52 75 47 / 5 5 10 20
CHAMA........................... 74 34 61 31 / 10 30 40 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 46 63 40 / 5 10 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 70 37 59 32 / 5 20 30 30
TAOS............................ 81 44 68 39 / 5 5 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 83 48 67 42 / 5 5 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 48 70 42 / 5 0 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 87 45 74 44 / 5 5 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 56 75 51 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 50 71 47 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 52 71 47 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 54 78 49 / 5 5 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 92 56 79 51 / 5 5 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 44 65 37 / 5 5 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 48 69 43 / 5 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 55 80 47 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 83 51 70 45 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 82 48 71 43 / 5 5 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 49 67 41 / 5 0 10 10
ROY............................. 77 50 73 47 / 5 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 86 54 80 48 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 54 80 49 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 57 85 53 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 59 81 54 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 91 56 86 53 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 93 59 88 54 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 100 63 90 56 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001>021-026.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
&&
$$
43/44
000
FXUS65 KABQ 210901
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008
.DISCUSSION...
A LOT GOING ON WEATHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT 2 TO
PERHAPS 3 DAYS FEATURING WIND AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARGUABLY THE MAIN FEATURES. THE EVOLUTION OF THE RATHER LATE IN
THE SEASON UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEMS ON TRACK...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME PCPN INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NEAR TO MID TERM
NUMERICAL MODELS. TREND THOUGH FAVORS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTER SHOWERS AND T STORMS FOR W CENTRAL NW AND N CENTRAL NM
AFTER TODAY INTO AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT WILL
PRIMARILY BE A TOP DOWN WETTING WITH THE COOLING TREND ALSO
HELPING TO RAISE RH VALUES. SUSTAINED WINDS LATE AM TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH FOR ALL THE FCST
AREA SO WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE ACTUAL
WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT BEING UPDATED A LITTLE WAYS BEFORE IT
EXPIRES AT 14Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A WESTWARD RETREAT IN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE CONCERNED
WITH DRYLINE PENETRATION INTO SOME PART OF E NM THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FORECAST FOR THE WINDY
DAY AHEAD. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE EXPECT TO MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS COULD BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL IN
TAFS. WATCH FOR TAF UPDATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WE GAIN GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED BY 800 AM.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 83 49 67 43 / 5 30 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 77 43 61 39 / 5 30 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 80 44 67 40 / 5 20 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 89 52 75 47 / 5 5 10 20
CHAMA........................... 74 34 61 31 / 10 30 40 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 46 63 40 / 5 10 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 70 37 59 32 / 5 20 30 30
TAOS............................ 81 44 68 39 / 5 5 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 83 48 67 42 / 5 5 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 48 70 42 / 5 0 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 87 45 74 44 / 5 5 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 56 75 51 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 50 71 47 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 52 71 47 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 54 78 49 / 5 5 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 92 56 79 51 / 5 5 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 44 65 37 / 5 5 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 48 69 43 / 5 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 55 80 47 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 83 51 70 45 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 82 48 71 43 / 5 5 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 49 67 41 / 5 0 10 10
ROY............................. 77 50 73 47 / 5 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 86 54 80 48 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 54 80 49 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 57 85 53 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 59 81 54 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 91 56 86 53 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 93 59 88 54 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 100 63 90 56 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001>021-026.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.
&&
$$
43/44
000
FXUS65 KABQ 202049
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
249 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGGING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE SPINE OF CALIFORNIA...AND CRUNCHING DOWN EASTERN NOSE OF RIDGE
POKING EASTWARD FROM OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SHORTWAVES CIRCULATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND EASTERN NOSE
MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE...WITH A FEW MORE DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE GILA...SACRAMENTOS AND GUADALUPES THROUGH SUNSET. COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPOTTY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT FOR CELLS
ACHIEVING SOME HEIGHT AGAINST THERMODYNAMIC ODDS. OUT AHEAD OF
CALIFORNIA STORM SYSTEM...BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.
MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY GOING BECOMING LESS SO IN THE
OUT PERIODS...BUT MODELS OF BOTH DOMESTIC AND EUROPEAN CENTERS
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. PLAUSIBLE START DIGS CALIFORNIA TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY AND CLOSES OFF BIG SLOPPY LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY. WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE TROUGH...PHASE LOCKING WILL KEEP THE CLOSED LOW
STATIONARY ON FRIDAY WITH A SHAKY WESTWARD RETROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GFS WANTS TO START THE LIFT AND SHEAR...BUT EUROPEAN
CENTER HAVING NONE OF THIS...AND CONTINUES TO HOLD CLOSED LOW OVER
SAN FRANCISCO BAY. MODELS ARE UNITED IN KEEPING WAVY FLOW...AND
NOT CUTTING OFF THE LOW OR TROUGH WITH A JET PUNCH ACROSS NORTHERN
CANADA...THUS ACTIVE DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRACING FOR THE BIG BLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES
SPEED. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RAMP WIND
SPEEDS WELL INTO ADVISORY RANGE...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY. WIND
ADVISORIES AND RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL GO OUT THIS AFTERNOON AREA
WIDE TO COVER THE WEDNESDAY EXCITEMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...TO WIND UP THE WARM SPELL FOR
THIS ROUND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK IN WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE
NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW SHOWING UP IN THE NORTHEAST ALONG A SNAKING
DRY LINE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOSED LOW SPRAWLED SOLIDLY
OVER NEVADA...UTAH...AND NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MAINTAIN SPEEDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO...AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO
A CLAYTON TO ROSWELL LINE BY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER BACK WEST WILL EASE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST OR SOUTH TO BE MUCH
HELP TO EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE. WILL HOIST FIRE WEATHER WATCH
THIS ROUND FOR THURSDAY...BROADLY FROM CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST
TO TEXAS BORDER...AND ADDING THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
INTO FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE BROAD PICTURE...WITH CLOSED LOW
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. NEXT PUNCH OF COLD AIR
WILL CROSS WESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE SWEEPING EAST...WITH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES NOW FALLING INTO THE BELOW NORMAL RANGE. FRIDAY
DRY LINE ACTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE...BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL TOUCH OFF ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
INTO SATURDAY...RETROGRESSION DAY FOR THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND
MODELS IN SOME DISHARMONY ON PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW. UNITY
THAT IT WILL BE WEST OF THE GREAT BASIN...AND IMPACT NEGLIGIBLE ON
NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL REMAIN UNDER GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING OVER EASTERN END OF THE STATE. DRY LINE
SET UP WILL AGAIN BE EAST OF THE STATE...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER AND
THEN MOVING SMARTLY TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOOKING AT SOME LOW CLOUD BASES...GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000
FT AGL TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
GENERALLY HIGHER BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. ALTHOUGH SLOW TO GET GOING...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AFFECT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STORMS SLOW TO GET GOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS ACROSS THE EAST BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH DRIER OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
OTHER THAN ACROSS THE EAST...RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR WITH WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES
CORRESPONDING TO VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10000 TO
19000 FT MSL. RH VALUES WILL ALSO PLUMMET...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AREAS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER WHILE
SOME HIGHER BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STORMS WOULD BE FAST
MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW WINDS. THEY WOULD ALSO
TEND TO BE OF THE DRIER VARIETY.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE
ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD ESSENTIALLY PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SAME TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS THE DRY LINE GETS PUSHED INTO TEXAS.
WILL BE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ESTANCIA BASIN AND EASTERN PLAINS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH UP IN THE AIR. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A DRY SLOT ENTRENCHED OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WOULD
BE FOUND ON THE EDGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT. WILDCARDS WILL BE
THE DRY LINE FOUND NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER AS WELL AS THE POSITION OF
THE GREAT BASIN LOW. ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL BE A RATHER
FAST FLOW ALOFT /SOUTH...SOUTHWEST/. AS THESE DAYS DRAW CLOSER WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING IN ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO COUNTERACT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 55 85 49 68 / 0 5 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 50 79 42 60 / 0 0 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 52 81 44 66 / 0 0 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 56 90 51 75 / 10 0 5 10
CHAMA........................... 38 74 34 60 / 0 10 20 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 78 46 60 / 0 0 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 38 71 37 58 / 5 0 5 20
TAOS............................ 47 81 44 66 / 5 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 51 82 48 64 / 0 0 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 84 48 67 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 47 87 45 72 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 87 55 73 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 85 49 69 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 84 51 69 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 87 53 76 / 0 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 58 91 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 80 44 63 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 82 47 67 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 89 55 79 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 82 51 69 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 49 83 48 70 / 10 5 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 81 48 65 / 10 0 0 10
ROY............................. 52 77 50 72 / 10 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 55 86 53 79 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 89 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 91 58 83 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 89 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 91 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 60 93 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 62 97 62 90 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ001>021-026.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-107-108.
&&
$$
SHY/50
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