000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171549
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1149 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES YOU CAN EXPECT COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. MODELS INDICATING
DECENT LL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH CAA ALOFT AND A MID
AND UL JET WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY DAWN.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA...CURRENTLY OVER NW OH AND IN...WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST...SO I DO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS BUILDING BACK IN QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THIS BEFORE SKIES RETURN TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY
STABILIZES. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND DAWN
SUNDAY. THIS NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A LARGE...WINTER LIKE UL LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SETTLES IN OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPIN
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND PUSH OF SERIES OF FRONTS THROUGH. EACH
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ALSO A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR.

MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING LOWER LEVELS DESTABILIZING AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND TDS IN THE
40S WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.

THIS NEXT FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS.

LARGE UL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL NORTHWARD TO MAINE MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHT RISE ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF ON THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WEEKENDS UL LOW WILL MAKE A RETURN APPEARANCE NEXT WEEK AS IT
RETROGRADES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS TUESDAYS SYSTEM IS NOW SHOWING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK. IF THIS TRACK PANS OUT...MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN REACH OF MY CWA.

A UL LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS ALL COMES TO
FRUITION...THE EXTENDED WILL BE COOL BUT DRY.

RIGHT NOW WITH CURRENT PATTERN...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED. MANY
CHANGES TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR
IFR TO MVFR IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.

WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CROSS...BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND IFR TO MVFR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KILN 171543
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1143 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WHETHER UNSETTLED AND TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF PREDOMINANTLY MID LVL CLOUDS PRECEDING APPCHG WEAK COLD
FRONT. HAVE SEEN WDLY SCT -SHRA WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE CMH METRO. TEMPS HAD WARMED INTO THE 60S
ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.

SOME MINOR CHANGES IN ORDER FOR FCST THIS AFTN. FRNTL BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND INTO
THE ERLY EVNG. RUC/NAM BOTH INDCG SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT THIS AFTN ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA WHERE GOOD SFC HEATING
HAS OCCURRED UNDER A LARGELY CLOUDLESS SKY THRU MID MRNG.
COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY (500 J/KG MLCAPES AND LOWER) WITH
WEAK LO LVL CONV AXIS FORCED BY 40-45KT 850 LLJ SHOULD ENABLE
BETTER PCPN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTN HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT
PCPN CHANCES. HAVE ALSO BROUGHT IN ISOLD THUNDER MENTION FOR MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70. NORTH OF THE BNDRY...SUN SHOULD RETURN RELATIVELY
FAST DURING THE AFTN. FAR NW FCST AREA ALREADY PULLING OUT OF MID
LVL CLOUD DECK...AND SHOULD SEE DRY WX AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS THE PCPN AND CLOUDS SAG SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT DAY/CMH METROS TO SEE A RETURN OF
SOME SUN BY MID AFTN. AFTN HIGHS LOOKED REASONABLE AS MANY
LOCATIONS ACRS SRN FCST AREA WILL COME CLOSE BEFORE CLOUDS AND
PCPN CHANCES INCREASE DURING AFTN. ON THE OTHER HAND WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT DOWN BY CLOUDS THIS MRNG...INCREASING SUNSHINE
THIS AFTN SHOULD ENABLE A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 70 DEG. PRESENCE
OF LLJ WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY TO AROUND 30MPH INTO THE AFTN IN
WELL MIXED BNDRY LYR.

ZONE AND GRID FCST ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 LOW OVER GREAT LAKES SETTLES SE SAT NGT INTO SUN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS IS STRONGEST WITH S/W
ROTATING AROUND H5 SAT NGT. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE WEAKER
AND FARTHER N...WHILE THE SREF SEEMS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION. RAN A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...KEEPING POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY.

NW FLOW AROUND H5 LOW...SHOULD KEEP A CHC OF SHRA ACRS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.

MAV GUIDANCE HAS COOLED OFF A GENERALLY LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER S/W DROPS THRU THE OH VLY IN THE NW FLOW MON AFTN INTO MON
NGT. NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING PCPN ACRS THE SRN
HALF OF THE FA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN US AND HOW IT TRANSLATES TO RIDGING OVER THE EAST.
WENT WELL BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURS AND FRIDAY...TRENDING
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO AND ENS MEAN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SEE A MID LEVEL DECK THICKEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT
PUSHES SW TOWARDS THE OHRIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND COME OUT OF THIS MID DECK FROM 8
TO 10KFT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. SERN CWA OUTSIDE OF TAF
SITES COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AS LESS CLOUD COVER EARLY ADDS
A LITTLE MORE PUNCH TO THIS AREA TODAY. LLVL 40KT JET THIS MORNING
WILL SEE THE GRADIENT TIGHTEN UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED IN ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
DAY. HELD OFF ON PUTTING ANY TYPE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BUT
DO SEE IT AS AN ISOLATED POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND
SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING H5 TROUGH AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TOWARDS 12Z. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL COINCIDE WITH OR
BE FOUND JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT. THIS SECOND WAVE
APPEARS TO HAVE A LOT MORE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH IT SO CIGS
WILL LIKELY DECREASE BELOW VFR LATE TONIGHT IN SOME SCT RAIN
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KCLE 171509
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1109 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME STATIONARY BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS AT TOLEDO (15Z) AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COOLING ALOFT. DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND BELIEVE THAT
NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
JET MAXIMA AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AND SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ELEVATED
BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
A CLEVELAND TO FINDLAY LINE. ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO DRY ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PRIME A FEW OF THE STORMS FOR HAIL WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF DOWNBURST WINDS.

NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADD SOME TIMING TO FORECAST EMPHASIZING THAT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DEEP TROUGH REMAINS
PERSISTENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY WILL BRING
IN ENOUGH DRIER AIR TO GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE DAY TO DAY
RAINFALL WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HOWEVER...THREAT OF RAIN MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN.
COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EAST AND AROUND 60 IN THE WEST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WARMING TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEST AND AROUND 60 EAST BY
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GENERAL MODELS TRY TO SLOW PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR
WEST AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WED THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THIS PROBABLY MEAN A GENERAL NE FLOW AS BACKDOOR TROUGHS OR
COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH.  INDECISION ON WHETHER PRECIP WITH
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SW WILL BE ABLE TO PROGRESS NE INTO THE AREA
SO WILL SHOW TAPERED POPS FM SW TO NE WITH MOST PLACES HAVING A
SMALL CHANCE.  LIKEWISE TEMPS WILL BE TAPERED DOWN FROM SW TO NE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT JUST SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TSRA.  BASES MAINLY 5000 FT AND HIGHER WITH LITTLE EFFECTS ON VSBY.
AS AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSTABLE LATER INTO THE DAY WITH
INTERACTION OF COLD FRONT...PROB WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE SE HALF OF OUR AREA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR
TSRA AT CAK AND YNG.  DRY SLOT LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AFTER
FROPA SHOULD END PRECIP THREAT WITH VFR PREVAILING.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
MONDAY FOR VFR BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE WEDNESDAY WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES FOR AVIATION DETAILS. BEST
THREAT FOR ANY NON VFR WOULD BE IN THE WEST WHERE CHANCE FOR SHRA
EXISTS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL SHIFT SW FLOW TO MAINLY WEST
WHILE 10 TO 20 KTS INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KTS SO SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE.  FLOW MAY DECREASE SOME TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BUT SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP BACK TO 15
TO 25 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH SO SCA WILL BE KEPT UP
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TRY TO STAY OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171424
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1024 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES YOU CAN EXPECT COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. MODELS INDICATING
DECENT LL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH CAA ALOFT AND A MID
AND UL JET WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. 85H JET TO
40KTS...DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WB0 BETWEEN 40-50KFT...
DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH
CONVECTION.

AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
DAWN. HOWEVER...THIS AREA...CURRENTLY OVER NW OH AND IN...WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST...SO I DO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS BUILDING BACK IN QUICKLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THIS BEFORE SKIES RETURN TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY
STABILIZES. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND DAWN
SUNDAY. THIS NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A LARGE...WINTER LIKE UL LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SETTLES IN OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPIN
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND PUSH OF SERIES OF FRONTS THROUGH. EACH
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ALSO A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR.

MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING LOWER LEVELS DESTABILIZING AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND TDS IN THE
40S WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.

THIS NEXT FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS.

LARGE UL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL NORTHWARD TO MAINE MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHT RISE ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF ON THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WEEKENDS UL LOW WILL MAKE A RETURN APPEARANCE NEXT WEEK AS IT
RETROGRADES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS TUESDAYS SYSTEM IS NOW SHOWING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK. IF THIS TRACK PANS OUT...MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN REACH OF MY CWA.

A UL LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS ALL COMES TO
FRUITION...THE EXTENDED WILL BE COOL BUT DRY.

RIGHT NOW WITH CURRENT PATTERN...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED. MANY
CHANGES TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR
IFR TO MVFR IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.

WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CROSS...BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND IFR TO MVFR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 171415
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1015 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LOCAL SHORT TERM MODELS AND CURRENT SAT/RADAR
TRENDS...SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY. SW FLOW AHEAD
OF PRECIP IS SLOWING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.  STILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON.  FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
OTHERWISE...AND GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED QPF...BUT ALL ARE BRINGING PRECIPITATION. SREF
BRINGS BULK OF PRECIP BY 06Z SUN...GFS BY 12Z...AND THE NAM BY 15Z.
WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM AND GFS FOCUSING THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SUN MORNING. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE RAINFALL EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY. COLDER AIR MASS WITH SOME CLEARING ON
MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RAISE INTO THE UPPER 60S...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. TWEAKED GMOS TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO
DEAL WITH IN RATHER QUICK SEQUENCE. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENDED
RANGE ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SHIFTING
ITS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL REALLY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER MUCH AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
DRYING AND COOL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
IN...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL GUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CB FORMATION EXPECTED IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST TSRA
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...PKB AND CKB. WINDS COULD PICK UP EVEN
MORE IN LOCATIONS SEEING CONVECTION. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN TSRA.

ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER IN THE -SHRA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR
CEILINGS MOVE IN QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z SUNDAY/...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KCLE 171103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME STATIONARY BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW SHOWERS
POPPED UP WITH THE MID DECK MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AT THIS
TIME. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EXTREME EAST. I
DECIDED TO PUSH THAT AREA MUCH FURTHER WEST. TIMING OF UPPER
LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD PLACE THE JET OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GOOD CAPE
VALUES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE SEVERE
CRITERIA HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT MINIMAL
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
NOT MENTION SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME IN THE ZONES SINCE IT IS
MARGINAL BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOWER 70S UPSTREAM EVEN
UNDER CLOUD COVER. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS HEADED TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA AND FEELING IS THAT THE WESTERN PORTIONS COULD SEE
LOWER 70S BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
EAST WILL MINIMIZE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS TODAY. WILL ONLY GO
LOWER 60S IN THE EXTREME EAST AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DEEP TROUGH REMAINS
PERSISTENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY WILL BRING
IN ENOUGH DRIER AIR TO GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE DAY TO DAY
RAINFALL WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HOWEVER...THREAT OF RAIN MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN.
COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EAST AND AROUND 60 IN THE WEST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WARMING TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEST AND AROUND 60 EAST BY
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GENERAL MODELS TRY TO SLOW PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR
WEST AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WED THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THIS PROBABLY MEAN A GENERAL NE FLOW AS BACKDOOR TROUGHS OR
COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH.  INDECISION ON WHETHER PRECIP WITH
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SW WILL BE ABLE TO PROGRESS NE INTO THE AREA
SO WILL SHOW TAPERED POPS FM SW TO NE WITH MOST PLACES HAVING A
SMALL CHANCE.  LIKEWISE TEMPS WILL BE TAPERED DOWN FROM SW TO NE.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT JUST SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TSRA.  BASES MAINLY 5000 FT AND HIGHER WITH LITTLE EFFECTS ON VSBY.
AS AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSTABLE LATER INTO THE DAY WITH
INTERACTION OF COLD FRONT...PROB WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE SE HALF OF OUR AREA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR
TSRA AT CAK AND YNG.  DRY SLOT LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AFTER
FROPA SHOULD END PRECIP THREAT WITH VFR PREVAILING.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
MONDAY FOR VFR BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE WEDNESDAY WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES FOR AVIATION DETAILS. BEST
THREAT FOR ANY NON VFR WOULD BE IN THE WEST WHERE CHANCE FOR SHRA
EXISTS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL SHIFT SW FLOW TO MAINLY WEST
WHILE 10 TO 20 KTS INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KTS SO SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE.  FLOW MAY DECREASE SOME TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BUT SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP BACK TO 15
TO 25 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH SO SCA WILL BE KEPT UP
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TRY TO STAY OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS

000
FXUS61 KILN 171045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WHETHER UNSETTLED AND TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG CDFNT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE FA TODAY.
00Z RUN HAS CONTINUED TREND OF BEGIN A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SCT SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES TOWARDS
18Z...GIVING THE BEST CHC OF SHRA IN THE AFTN. DELAYED THE ONSET
OF THE PCPN TIL LATE MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTN. BOTH
NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTN...BUT
WITH THIS BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER ATTM.

WARMED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY...CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 LOW OVER GREAT LAKES SETTLES SE SAT NGT INTO SUN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS IS STRONGEST WITH S/W
ROTATING AROUND H5 SAT NGT. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE WEAKER
AND FARTHER N...WHILE THE SREF SEEMS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION. RAN A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...KEEPING POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY.

NW FLOW AROUND H5 LOW...SHOULD KEEP A CHC OF SHRA ACRS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.

MAV GUIDANCE HAS COOLED OFF A GENERALLY LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER S/W DROPS THRU THE OH VLY IN THE NW FLOW MON AFTN INTO MON
NGT. NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING PCPN ACRS THE SRN
HALF OF THE FA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN US AND HOW IT TRANSLATES TO RIDGING OVER THE EAST.
WENT WELL BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURS AND FRIDAY...TRENDING
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO AND ENS MEAN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SEE A MID LEVEL DECK THICKEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT
PUSHES SW TOWARDS THE OHRIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND COME OUT OF THIS MID DECK FROM 8
TO 10KFT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. SERN CWA OUTSIDE OF TAF
SITES COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AS LESS CLOUD COVER EARLY ADDS
A LITTLE MORE PUNCH TO THIS AREA TODAY. LLVL 40KT JET THIS MORNING
WILL SEE THE GRADIENT TIGHTEN UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED IN ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
DAY. HELD OFF ON PUTTING ANY TYPE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BUT
DO SEE IT AS AN ISOLATED POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE GRAIDENT RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND
SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING H5 TROUGH AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TOWARDS 12Z. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL COOINCIDE WITH OR
BE FOUND JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT. THIS SECOND WAVE
APPEARS TO HAVE A LOT MORE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH IT SO CIGS
WILL LIKELY DECREASE BELOW VFR LATE TONIGHT IN SOME SCT RAIN
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 171022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
622 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS IN THE 500 HPA FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE UPON
SUNRISE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SURFACE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT PLENTIFUL IN THIS SCENARIO...WHICH
WILL HINDER SOMEWHAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID...SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL
BE SITUATED. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXHIBITING AN
INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING...GIVING THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE SLOWLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
WITH NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT KNOCKS ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAX T VALUES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION BEFORE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED QPF...BUT ALL ARE BRINGING PRECIPITATION. SREF
BRINGS BULK OF PRECIP BY 06Z SUN...GFS BY 12Z...AND THE NAM BY 15Z.
WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM AND GFS FOCUSING THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SUN MORNING. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE RAINFALL EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY. COLDER AIR MASS WITH SOME CLEARING ON
MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RAISE INTO THE UPPER 60S...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. TWEAKED GMOS TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO
DEAL WITH IN RATHER QUICK SEQUENCE. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENDED
RANGE ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SHIFTING
ITS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL REALLY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER MUCH AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
DRYING AND COOL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
IN...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL GUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CB FORMATION EXPECTED IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST TSRA
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...PKB AND CKB. WINDS COULD PICK UP EVEN
MORE IN LOCATIONS SEEING CONVECTION. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN TSRA.

ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER IN THE -SHRA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR
CEILINGS MOVE IN QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z SUNDAY/...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KILN 170814
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WHETHER UNSETTLED AND TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG CDFNT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE FA TODAY.
00Z RUN HAS CONTINUED TREND OF BEGIN A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SCT SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES TOWARDS
18Z...GIVING THE BEST CHC OF SHRA IN THE AFTN. DELAYED THE ONSET
OF THE PCPN TIL LATE MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTN. BOTH
NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTN...BUT
WITH THIS BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER ATTM.

WARMED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY...CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 LOW OVER GREAT LAKES SETTLES SE SAT NGT INTO SUN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS IS STRONGEST WITH S/W
ROTATING AROUND H5 SAT NGT. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE WEAKER
AND FARTHER N...WHILE THE SREF SEEMS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION. RAN A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...KEEPING POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY.

NW FLOW AROUND H5 LOW...SHOULD KEEP A CHC OF SHRA ACRS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.

MAV GUIDANCE HAS COOLED OFF A GENERALLY LOOKS REASONABLE.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ANOTHER S/W DROPS THRU THE OH VLY IN THE NW FLOW MON AFTN INTO MON
NGT. NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING PCPN ACRS THE SRN
HALF OF THE FA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN US AND HOW IT TRANSLATES TO RIDGING OVER THE EAST.
WENT WELL BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURS AND FRIDAY...TRENDING
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO AND ENS MEAN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OHVLY FROM THE NW THIS MORNING WITH A BKN
DECK AROUND 8KFT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
LLVL JET OF AROUND 40KT WILL BRING SOME SUSTAINED SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT EARLY TODAY. COLD FRONT PASSES BTWN 18 AND
22Z AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT LATE IN THE DAY
MORESO S OF OHRIVER. HAVE INDICATED CB AND -RA WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR
THREE THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THAT THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
OUTSIDE OF IMMEDIATE OHRIVER WILL BE DISJOINTED IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING NEEDED FOR
DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.

WINDS SHIFT W BEHIND FRONT AND THEN TURN BACK SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS
ANOTHER FRONT/CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS OVER INDIANA AT THE TAIL END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL/SITES
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 170810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS IN THE 500 HPA FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE UPON
SUNRISE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SURFACE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT PLENTIFUL IN THIS SCENARIO...WHICH
WILL HINDER SOMEWHAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID...SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL
BE SITUATED. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXHIBITING AN
INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING...GIVING THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE SLOWLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
WITH NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT KNOCKS ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAX T VALUES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION BEFORE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED QPF...BUT ALL ARE BRINGING PRECIPITATION. SREF
BRINGS BULK OF PRECIP BY 06Z SUN...GFS BY 12Z...AND THE NAM BY 15Z.
WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM AND GFS FOCUSING THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SUN MORNING. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE RAINFALL EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY. COLDER AIR MASS WITH SOME CLEARING ON
MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RAISE INTO THE UPPER 60S...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. TWEAKED GMOS TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO
DEAL WITH IN RATHER QUICK SEQUENCE. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENDED
RANGE ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SHIFTING
ITS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL REALLY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER MUCH AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
DRYING AND COOL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
IN...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLICATED AVIATION SCENARIO TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO CALM OR NEARLY CALM.
DIFFICULTY CAME IN DETERMINING EXACTLY WHICH OF THE TAF SITES
WOULD HAVE BOTH OF THESE CRITERIA MET...AND DROPPED THOSE INTO IFR
OR LIFR FOG POTENTIAL.

FOG WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND WINDS WILL GUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CB FORMATION EXPECTED IN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
GREATEST -TSRA POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...PKB AND CKB. WINDS
COULD PICK UP EVEN MORE IN LOCATIONS SEEING CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER IN THE -SHRA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 06Z SUNDAY/...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KCLE 170640
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
240 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME STATIONARY BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW SHOWERS
POPPED UP WITH THE MID DECK MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AT THIS
TIME. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EXTREME EAST. I
DECIDED TO PUSH THAT AREA MUCH FURTHER WEST. TIMING OF UPPER
LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD PLACE THE JET OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GOOD CAPE
VALUES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE SEVERE
CRITERIA HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT MINIMAL
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
NOT MENTION SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME IN THE ZONES SINCE IT IS
MARGINAL BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOWER 70S UPSTREAM EVEN
UNDER CLOUD COVER. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS HEADED TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA AND FEELING IS THAT THE WESTERN PORTIONS COULD SEE
LOWER 70S BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
EAST WILL MINIMIZE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS TODAY. WILL ONLY GO
LOWER 60S IN THE EXTREME EAST AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DEEP TROUGH REMAINS
PERSISTENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY WILL BRING
IN ENOUGH DRIER AIR TO GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE DAY TO DAY
RAINFALL WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HOWEVER...THREAT OF RAIN MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN.
COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EAST AND AROUND 60 IN THE WEST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WARMING TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEST AND AROUND 60 EAST BY
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GENERAL MODELS TRY TO SLOW PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR
WEST AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WED THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THIS PROBABLY MEAN A GENERAL NE FLOW AS BACKDOOR TROUGHS OR
COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH.  INDECISION ON WHETHER PRECIP WITH
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SW WILL BE ABLE TO PROGRESS NE INTO THE AREA
SO WILL SHOW TAPERED POPS FM SW TO NE WITH MOST PLACES HAVING A
SMALL CHANCE.  LIKEWISE TEMPS WILL BE TAPERED DOWN FROM SW TO NE.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT JUST SCT SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA.  EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHRA WITH THE TROUGH WITH BASES MAINLY
5000 FT AND HIGHER WITH LITTLE EFFECTS ON VSBY SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH. AS AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE LATER INTO THE DAY WITH INTERACTION OF COLD
FRONT...PROB WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE
SE HALF OF OUR AREA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR TSRA AT CAK AND YNG.
DRY SLOT LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AFTER FROPA SHOULD END PRECIP
THREAT WITH VFR PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT LIVED HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED MONDAY FOR VFR BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
TUESDAY. PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES
FOR AVIATION DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL SHIFT SW FLOW TO MAINLY WEST
WHILE 10 TO 20 KTS INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KTS SO SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE.  FLOW MAY DECREASE SOME TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BUT SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP BACK TO 15
TO 25 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH SO SCA WILL BE KEPT UP
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TRY TO STAY OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 170550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  COLD
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS.  ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ALL PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING DRIZZLE...HAS ENDED...AND THE CLEARING
LINE GOT TO THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE W OF THE CLEARING
LINE AS THE CLEARING LINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
USING THE BUF SKY TOOL OFF THE NAM12.  PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION DID
NOT PORTRAY MUCH FOG...PATCHY MVFR ONLY...BUT DETERMINISTIC LAMP DID
SHOW MUCH MORE FOG INCLUDING IFR.  USED THIS AS BASIS TO ADD PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

SATURDAY FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT OTHER THAN MORNING FOG...WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY.  PREV DISCN FOR SAT BELOW...

SATURDAY WILL DAWN WITH SUNSHINE...BUT NEXT FRONT WILL DROP IN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PUSHED BY SAGGING H500 HEIGHTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.  MODELS BRING FRONT TO NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA AROUND
18Z...AND DROP IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION BEFORE 00Z.  KEPT HIGHER
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS...CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM
H250 JET.  NO DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF
EVENT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .25 INCH.  MODEST INSTABILITY POOLS
ALONG FRONT WITH LI VALUES AROUND ZERO OR A BIT BELOW.  ADDED CHANCE
OF THUNDER CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY BE TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY STORM...BUT
CHANCES OF THIS SEEM MINIMAL.  RAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT THIS FRONT...AND ARE QUITE
PROLIFIC WITH THE POPS AND QPF. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING AN INITIAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT CARRY OVER
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER...AFOREMENTIONED...WEAKENING
FRONT...WILL STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOSS
OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE ACTIVITY. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MUCH OF SUNDAY AS COLD POOL ALOFT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOK FOR MODEST
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. MOST MOS GUIDANCE ARE QUITE CLOSE ON THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO
DEAL WITH IN RATHER QUICK SEQUENCE. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENDED
RANGE ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SHIFTING
ITS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL REALLY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER MUCH AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
DRYING AND COOL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
IN...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLICATED AVIATION SCENARIO TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO CALM OR NEARLY CALM.
DIFFICULTY CAME IN DETERMINING EXACTLY WHICH OF THE TAF SITES
WOULD HAVE BOTH OF THESE CRITERIA MET...AND DROPPED THOSE INTO IFR
OR LIFR FOG POTENTIAL.

FOG WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND WINDS WILL GUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CB FORMATION EXPECTED IN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
GREATEST -TSRA POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...PKB AND CKB. WINDS
COULD PICK UP EVEN MORE IN LOCATIONS SEEING CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER IN THE -SHRA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 06Z SUNDAY/...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CL/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. MODELS INDICATING
DECENT LL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH CAA ALOFT AND A MID
AND UL JET WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. 85H JET TO
40KTS...DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WB0 BETWEEN 40-50KFT...
DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH
CONVECTION.

AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
DAWN. HOWEVER...THIS AREA...CURRENTLY OVER NW OH AND IN...WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST...SO I DO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS BUILDING BACK IN QUICKLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THIS BEFORE SKIES RETURN TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY
STABILIZES. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND DAWN
SUNDAY. THIS NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A LARGE...WINTER LIKE UL LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SETTLES IN OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPIN
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND PUSH OF SERIES OF FRONTS THROUGH. EACH
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ALSO A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR.

MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING LOWER LEVELS DESTABILIZING AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND TDS IN THE
40S WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.

THIS NEXT FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS.

LARGE UL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL NORTHWARD TO MAINE MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHT RISE ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF ON THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THIS WEEKENDS UL LOW WILL MAKE A RETURN APPEARANCE NEXT WEEK AS IT
RETROGRADES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS TUESDAYS SYSTEM IS NOW SHOWING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK. IF THIS TRACK PANS OUT...MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN REACH OF MY CWA.

A UL LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS ALL COMES TO
FRUITION...THE EXTENDED WILL BE COOL BUT DRY.

RIGHT NOW WITH CURRENT PATTERN...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED. MANY
CHANGES TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LEAD TO VLIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE
FOR IFR TO MVFR IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.

WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CROSS...BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND IFR TO MVFR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KILN 170511
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CU HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A BIT
OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS
FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
EXPECTED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT...WILL GO
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED AREA OF 925-850 MB CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
DROP DOWN INTO SOUTHERN FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM-WRF IS HINTING
AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THIS BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING OF ANY PCPN. WOULD HOWEVER...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST A BIT
OF A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT SO WILL TRY TO PLAY POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM BUT ONCE TIMING GETS
IRONED OUT...LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER WILL PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

WILL CONTINUE ON COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS GIVEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND VORTEX
OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK...MEANING BELOW AVG TEMPS AND OFF AN ON RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND HOW IT TRANSLATES TO RIDGING OVER
THE EAST. WENT WELL BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURS AND
FRIDAY...TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO AND ENS MEAN TEMPS. &&

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OHVLY FROM THE NW THIS MORNING WITH A BKN
DECK AROUND 8KFT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
LLVL JET OF AROUND 40KT WILL BRING SOME SUSTAINED SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT EARLY TODAY. COLD FRONT PASSES BTWN 18 AND
22Z AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT LATE IN THE DAY
MORESO S OF OHRIVER. HAVE INDICATED CB AND -RA WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR
THREE THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THAT THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
OUTSIDE OF IMMEDIATE OHRIVER WILL BE DISJOINTED IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING NEEDED FOR
DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.

WINDS SHIFT W BEHIND FRONT AND THEN TURN BACK SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS
ANOTHER FRONT/CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS OVER INDIANA AT THE TAIL END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KCLE 170511
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NARROW ZONE OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A BIT COOL. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LATE
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FROM MILLERSBURG TO YTOWN TO TITUSVILLE. COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SSW
FLOW WILL INCREASE. WITH INCREASING SURFACE WIND MAY SEE TEMPS
ACTUALLY RISE LATER TONIGHT AFTER AN EARLY FALL TONIGHT. DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK AND CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT THE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...PROBABLY MID/LATE MORNING NORTHERN COUNTIES AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

NICE DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET SAT MORN AND ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD
UVV DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW
PA DURING THE MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS START TO DRY OUT ALOFT...
PERHAPS BEFORE THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... SO
THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS INCREASES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SHORT PERIOD (SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON) THAT
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE DRYING ALOFT. I HAVE A FEELING THAT
THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM UNTIL FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE COULD BE LOOKING AT LOW TOPPED STORMS
WITH HAIL AND POTENTIAL DOWNBURST WINDS. AFTER PASSAGE OF FRONT I
THINK THERE CAN BE ENOUGH MIXING AND DRYING FOR SOME CLEARING
ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY TURN OUT TO BE A HALF
DECENT AFTERNOON. WITH COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IN DEEPENING TROUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NEW SHOWERS POPPING UP BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT
BE MUCH ACTIVITY AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS.

TEMP GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM SATURDAY GIVEN THAT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SPLIT THE DAY ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WILL START OUT WARM.
WILL STAY CLOSER TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS MODEL HAS HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AT 12Z
SUNDAY. I DOUBT THE SYSTEM WILL BE THAT STRONG AND THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...ALMOST LIKE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT WAVE/FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH CLEARING. BEST CHANCE OF A LITTLE
SUNSHINE MIGHT BE NW OHIO. IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY ALL
DAY TEMPS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE LOWER/MID 50S WHICH
MIGHT BE THE CASE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WILL FAVOR A COOL SCENARIO
AND GO AT OR BELOW THE COOLER TEMP GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW YORK STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  TO OUR WEST A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOLLOWED HPC POPS WHICH BRING A SMALL CHANCE ONTO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.  UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WOULD ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP.  REAL FOCUS
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOIST NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH HPC RECOMMENDATION OF SMALL CHANCE POPS.  WEDNESDAY
DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WHICH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE ZONES
THIS FAR OUT.  UPPER LOW SHOWN ON THE GFS AND THE (JUST IN) 12Z ECMWF
IN GOOD AGREEMENT PULLING SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH INTO THE TN VLY.  THROUGH THE DAY THE MODELS HAVE THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.  BELIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH 70
DEGREES. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GFS AND 12Z ECMWF PAINT A DIFFERENT
PICTURE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BUILD THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A SHARP RIDGE
TO OUR WEST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE AREA IS THAT THE MODEL EXTENDS AN UPPER
TROF AND EVEN A CLOSED LOW BACK SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER JUST NORTH
OF ERIE PA.  THIS WOULD THROW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE CLOSED LOW BACK TOWARD THE AREA IS ANOMALOUS AND WILL TAKE THE
WARMER SOLUTION. ALSO HEAT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO RETURN TO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BARRING THE BACK DOOR FRONT... WITH LI`S
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ON THE GFS. WILL BRING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT JUST SCT SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA.  EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHRA WITH THE TROUGH WITH BASES MAINLY
5000 FT AND HIGHER WITH LITTLE EFFECTS ON VSBY SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH. AS AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE LATER INTO THE DAY WITH INTERACTION OF COLD
FRONT...PROB WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE
SE HALF OF OUR AREA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR TSRA AT CAK AND YNG.
DRY SLOT LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AFTER FROPA SHOULD END PRECIP
THREAT WITH VFR PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT LIVED HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED MONDAY FOR VFR BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
TUESDAY. PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES
FOR AVIATION DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
15-25KT WINDS/3-5FT WAVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN RIGHT NOW WOULD BE FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL AS WINDS TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THE LAKE BY MONDAY AND
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LEINS

000
FXUS61 KILN 170511
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CU HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A BIT
OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS
FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
EXPECTED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT...WILL GO
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED AREA OF 925-850 MB CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
DROP DOWN INTO SOUTHERN FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM-WRF IS HINTING
AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THIS BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING OF ANY PCPN. WOULD HOWEVER...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST A BIT
OF A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT SO WILL TRY TO PLAY POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM BUT ONCE TIMING GETS
IRONED OUT...LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER WILL PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

WILL CONTINUE ON COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS GIVEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND VORTEX
OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK...MEANING BELOW AVG TEMPS AND OFF AN ON RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND HOW IT TRANSLATES TO RIDGING OVER
THE EAST. WENT WELL BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURS AND
FRIDAY...TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO AND ENS MEAN TEMPS. &&

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OHVLY FROM THE NW THIS MORNING WITH A BKN
DECK AROUND 8KFT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
LLVL JET OF AROUND 40KT WILL BRING SOME SUSTAINED SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT EARLY TODAY. COLD FRONT PASSES BTWN 18 AND
22Z AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT LATE IN THE DAY
MORESO S OF OHRIVER. HAVE INDICATED CB AND -RA WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR
THREE THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THAT THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
OUTSIDE OF IMMEDIATE OHRIVER WILL BE DISJOINTED IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING NEEDED FOR
DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.

WINDS SHIFT W BEHIND FRONT AND THEN TURN BACK SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS
ANOTHER FRONT/CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS OVER INDIANA AT THE TAIL END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KCLE 170511
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NARROW ZONE OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A BIT COOL. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LATE
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FROM MILLERSBURG TO YTOWN TO TITUSVILLE. COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SSW
FLOW WILL INCREASE. WITH INCREASING SURFACE WIND MAY SEE TEMPS
ACTUALLY RISE LATER TONIGHT AFTER AN EARLY FALL TONIGHT. DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK AND CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT THE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...PROBABLY MID/LATE MORNING NORTHERN COUNTIES AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

NICE DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET SAT MORN AND ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD
UVV DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW
PA DURING THE MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS START TO DRY OUT ALOFT...
PERHAPS BEFORE THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... SO
THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS INCREASES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SHORT PERIOD (SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON) THAT
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE DRYING ALOFT. I HAVE A FEELING THAT
THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM UNTIL FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE COULD BE LOOKING AT LOW TOPPED STORMS
WITH HAIL AND POTENTIAL DOWNBURST WINDS. AFTER PASSAGE OF FRONT I
THINK THERE CAN BE ENOUGH MIXING AND DRYING FOR SOME CLEARING
ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY TURN OUT TO BE A HALF
DECENT AFTERNOON. WITH COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IN DEEPENING TROUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NEW SHOWERS POPPING UP BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT
BE MUCH ACTIVITY AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS.

TEMP GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM SATURDAY GIVEN THAT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SPLIT THE DAY ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WILL START OUT WARM.
WILL STAY CLOSER TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS MODEL HAS HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AT 12Z
SUNDAY. I DOUBT THE SYSTEM WILL BE THAT STRONG AND THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...ALMOST LIKE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT WAVE/FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH CLEARING. BEST CHANCE OF A LITTLE
SUNSHINE MIGHT BE NW OHIO. IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY ALL
DAY TEMPS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE LOWER/MID 50S WHICH
MIGHT BE THE CASE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WILL FAVOR A COOL SCENARIO
AND GO AT OR BELOW THE COOLER TEMP GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW YORK STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  TO OUR WEST A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOLLOWED HPC POPS WHICH BRING A SMALL CHANCE ONTO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.  UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WOULD ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP.  REAL FOCUS
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOIST NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH HPC RECOMMENDATION OF SMALL CHANCE POPS.  WEDNESDAY
DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WHICH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE ZONES
THIS FAR OUT.  UPPER LOW SHOWN ON THE GFS AND THE (JUST IN) 12Z ECMWF
IN GOOD AGREEMENT PULLING SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH INTO THE TN VLY.  THROUGH THE DAY THE MODELS HAVE THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.  BELIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH 70
DEGREES. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GFS AND 12Z ECMWF PAINT A DIFFERENT
PICTURE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BUILD THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A SHARP RIDGE
TO OUR WEST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE AREA IS THAT THE MODEL EXTENDS AN UPPER
TROF AND EVEN A CLOSED LOW BACK SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER JUST NORTH
OF ERIE PA.  THIS WOULD THROW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE CLOSED LOW BACK TOWARD THE AREA IS ANOMALOUS AND WILL TAKE THE
WARMER SOLUTION. ALSO HEAT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO RETURN TO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BARRING THE BACK DOOR FRONT... WITH LI`S
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ON THE GFS. WILL BRING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT JUST SCT SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA.  EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHRA WITH THE TROUGH WITH BASES MAINLY
5000 FT AND HIGHER WITH LITTLE EFFECTS ON VSBY SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH. AS AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE LATER INTO THE DAY WITH INTERACTION OF COLD
FRONT...PROB WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE
SE HALF OF OUR AREA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR TSRA AT CAK AND YNG.
DRY SLOT LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AFTER FROPA SHOULD END PRECIP
THREAT WITH VFR PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT LIVED HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED MONDAY FOR VFR BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
TUESDAY. PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES
FOR AVIATION DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
15-25KT WINDS/3-5FT WAVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN RIGHT NOW WOULD BE FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL AS WINDS TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THE LAKE BY MONDAY AND
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LEINS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 170143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
944 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  COLD
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS.  ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING DRIZZLE...HAS ENDED...AND THE CLEARING
LINE GOT TO THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE W OF THE CLEARING
LINE AS THE CLEARING LINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
USING THE BUF SKY TOOL OFF THE NAM12.  PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION DID
NOT PORTRAY MUCH FOG...PATCHY MVFR ONLY...BUT DETERMINISTIC LAMP DID
SHOW MUCH MORE FOG INCLUDING IFR.  USED THIS AS BASIS TO ADD PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

SATURDAY FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT OTHER THAN MORNING FOG...WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY.  PREV DISCN FOR SAT BELOW...

SATURDAY WILL DAWN WITH SUNSHINE...BUT NEXT FRONT WILL DROP IN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PUSHED BY SAGGING H500 HEIGHTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.  MODELS BRING FRONT TO NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA AROUND
18Z...AND DROP IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION BEFORE 00Z.  KEPT HIGHER
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS...CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM
H250 JET.  NO DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF
EVENT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .25 INCH.  MODEST INSTABILITY POOLS
ALONG FRONT WITH LI VALUES AROUND ZERO OR A BIT BELOW.  ADDED CHANCE
OF THUNDER CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY BE TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY STORM...BUT
CHANCES OF THIS SEEM MINIMAL.  RAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT THIS FRONT...AND ARE QUITE
PROLIFIC WITH THE POPS AND QPF. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING AN INITIAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT CARRY OVER
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER...AFOREMENTIONED...WEAKENING
FRONT...WILL STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOSS
OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE ACTIVITY. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MUCH OF SUNDAY AS COLD POOL ALOFT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOK FOR MODEST
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. MOST MOS GUIDANCE ARE QUITE CLOSE ON THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO
DEAL WITH IN RATHER QUICK SEQUENCE. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENDED
RANGE ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SHIFTING
ITS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL REALLY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER MUCH AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
DRYING AND COOL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
IN...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ALTHOUGH
PATCHY MVFR DECK WAS STILL FLOATING AROUND THE HTS AREA.  OTHER THAN
PATCHY MVFR CIGS...WORST CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST.  CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NT AS
STRATOCU DECK LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND BREAKS UP FROM THE W.  VSBYS WILL
BE MVFR AT TIMES...WITH IFR POSSIBLE CRW BEFORE DAWN.  MOUNTAIN
SITES WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.  DENSE FOG IS LIKELY EKN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY GO TO VFR ALL AROUND BY MID MORNING
SAT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GIVING
RISE TO SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WINDOW SHOULD ONLY BE THREE HOURS OR SO AT ANY ONE SITE SAT
AFTERNOON AS TH4E FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ON THROUGH.

GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME BY AND LARGE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LT W TO SW THE BALANCE OF THE NT...BUT A GUSTY
SW FLOW WILL KICK IN BY SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...MORE WESTERLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
NEAR PKB AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUN.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z SUNDAY/...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM/CL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KILN 170122
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
922 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CU HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A BIT
OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS
FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
EXPECTED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT...WILL GO
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED AREA OF 925-850 MB CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
DROP DOWN INTO SOUTHERN FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM-WRF IS HINTING
AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THIS BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING OF ANY PCPN. WOULD HOWEVER...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST A BIT
OF A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT SO WILL TRY TO PLAY POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM BUT ONCE TIMING GETS
IRONED OUT...LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER WILL PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

WILL CONTINUE ON COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS GIVEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND VORTEX
OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK...MEANING BELOW AVG TEMPS AND OFF AN ON RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND HOW IT TRANSLATES TO RIDGING OVER
THE EAST. WENT WELL BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURS AND
FRIDAY...TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO AND ENS MEAN TEMPS. &&

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST FEATURES MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
UNTIL 14Z WHEN CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
16Z AND 22Z. COVERED POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH CB. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KRLX 162349
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF CLEARING.
COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS.  ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER STILL LOCKED IN OVER CWA IN COOL NW FLOW.  AREA OF -DZ
HAS BLOOMED WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT FROM H500 SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH
A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE ORGANIZED LINE HAS FORMED IN SE
OHIO ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECT THESE
TO WANE WITH TIME. WITH SHORTWAVE SWEEPING EASTWARD BY
MIDNIGHT...THE SHRA/DZ WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST.  DRIER
AIR SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING SOME PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP OVERNIGHT.  WET GROUND PLUS CLEARING
SKIES RAISES FOG CHANCES.  STILL...SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY BARELY
POKE INTO CWA OVERNIGHT...AND WE MAY KEEP JUST ENOUGH OF A PUFF IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. TOOK A GENERAL MAV/MET BLEND OVERALL...BUT LEANED A TOUCH
COOLER IN THE WEST WILL SKIES WILL CLEAR SOONER.

SATURDAY WILL DAWN WITH SUNSHINE...BUT NEXT FRONT WILL DROP IN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PUSHED BY SAGGING H500 HEIGHTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.  MODELS BRING FRONT TO NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA AROUND
18Z...AND DROP IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION BEFORE 00Z.  KEPT HIGHER
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS...CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM
H250 JET.  NO DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF
EVENT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .25 INCH.  MODEST INSTABILITY POOLS
ALONG FRONT WITH LI VALUES AROUND ZERO OR A BIT BELOW.  ADDED CHANCE
OF THUNDER CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY BE TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY STORM...BUT
CHANCES OF THIS SEEM MINIMAL.  RAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT THIS FRONT...AND ARE QUITE
PROLIFIC WITH THE POPS AND QPF. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING AN INITIAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT CARRY OVER
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER...AFOREMENTIONED...WEAKENING
FRONT...WILL STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOSS
OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE ACTIVITY. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MUCH OF SUNDAY AS COLD POOL ALOFT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOK FOR MODEST
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. MOST MOS GUIDANCE ARE QUITE CLOSE ON THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO
DEAL WITH IN RATHER QUICK SEQUENCE. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENDED
RANGE ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SHIFTING
ITS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL REALLY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER MUCH AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
DRYING AND COOL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
IN...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ALTHOUGH
PATCHY MVFR DECK WAS STILL FLOATING AROUND THE HTS AREA.  OTHER THAN
PATCHY MVFR CIGS...WORST CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST.  CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NT AS
STRATOCU DECK LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND BREAKS UP FROM THE W.  VSBYS WILL
BE MVFR AT TIMES...WITH IFR POSSIBLE CRW BEFORE DAWN.  MOUNTAIN
SITES WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.  DENSE FOG IS LIKELY EKN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY GO TO VFR ALL AROUND BY MID MORNING
SAT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GIVING
RISE TO SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WINDOW SHOULD ONLY BE THREE HOURS OR SO AT ANY ONE SITE SAT
AFTERNOON AS TH4E FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ON THROUGH.

GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME BY AND LARGE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LT W TO SW THE BALANCE OF THE NT...BUT A GUSTY
SW FLOW WILL KICK IN BY SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...MORE WESTERLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
NEAR PKB AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUN.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z SUNDAY/...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KILN 162347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF OUR FA WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS
TO EXIT OUT OF FA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DIURNAL CU ALSO DISSIPATING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT...WILL GO AT OR A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED AREA OF 925-850 MB CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
DROP DOWN INTO SOUTHERN FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM-WRF IS HINTING
AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THIS BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING OF ANY PCPN. WOULD HOWEVER...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST A BIT
OF A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT SO WILL TRY TO PLAY POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM BUT ONCE TIMING GETS
IRONED OUT...LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER WILL PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

WILL CONTINUE ON COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS GIVEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND VORTEX
OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK...MEANING BELOW AVG TEMPS AND OFF AN ON RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND HOW IT TRANSLATES TO RIDGING OVER
THE EAST. WENT WELL BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURS AND
FRIDAY...TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO AND ENS MEAN TEMPS. &&

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST FEATURES MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
UNTIL 14Z WHEN CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
16Z AND 22Z. COVERED POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH CB. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KCLE 162342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NARROW ZONE OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A BIT COOL. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LATE
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FROM MILLERSBURG TO YTOWN TO TITUSVILLE. COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SSW
FLOW WILL INCREASE. WITH INCREASING SURFACE WIND MAY SEE TEMPS
ACTUALLY RISE LATER TONIGHT AFTER AN EARLY FALL TONIGHT. DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK AND CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT THE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...PROBABLY MID/LATE MORNING NORTHERN COUNTIES AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

NICE DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET SAT MORN AND ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD
UVV DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW
PA DURING THE MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS START TO DRY OUT ALOFT...
PERHAPS BEFORE THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... SO
THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS INCREASES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SHORT PERIOD (SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON) THAT
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE DRYING ALOFT. I HAVE A FEELING THAT
THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM UNTIL FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE COULD BE LOOKING AT LOW TOPPED STORMS
WITH HAIL AND POTENTIAL DOWNBURST WINDS. AFTER PASSAGE OF FRONT I
THINK THERE CAN BE ENOUGH MIXING AND DRYING FOR SOME CLEARING
ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY TURN OUT TO BE A HALF
DECENT AFTERNOON. WITH COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IN DEEPENING TROUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NEW SHOWERS POPPING UP BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT
BE MUCH ACTIVITY AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS.

TEMP GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM SATURDAY GIVEN THAT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SPLIT THE DAY ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WILL START OUT WARM.
WILL STAY CLOSER TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS MODEL HAS HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AT 12Z
SUNDAY. I DOUBT THE SYSTEM WILL BE THAT STRONG AND THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...ALMOST LIKE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT WAVE/FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH CLEARING. BEST CHANCE OF A LITTLE
SUNSHINE MIGHT BE NW OHIO. IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY ALL
DAY TEMPS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE LOWER/MID 50S WHICH
MIGHT BE THE CASE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WILL FAVOR A COOL SCENARIO
AND GO AT OR BELOW THE COOLER TEMP GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW YORK STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  TO OUR WEST A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOLLOWED HPC POPS WHICH BRING A SMALL CHANCE ONTO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.  UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WOULD ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP.  REAL FOCUS
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOIST NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH HPC RECOMMENDATION OF SMALL CHANCE POPS.  WEDNESDAY
DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WHICH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE ZONES
THIS FAR OUT.  UPPER LOW SHOWN ON THE GFS AND THE (JUST IN) 12Z ECMWF
IN GOOD AGREEMENT PULLING SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH INTO THE TN VLY.  THROUGH THE DAY THE MODELS HAVE THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.  BELIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH 70
DEGREES. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GFS AND 12Z ECMWF PAINT A DIFFERENT
PICTURE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BUILD THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A SHARP RIDGE
TO OUR WEST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE AREA IS THAT THE MODEL EXTENDS AN UPPER
TROF AND EVEN A CLOSED LOW BACK SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER JUST NORTH
OF ERIE PA.  THIS WOULD THROW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE CLOSED LOW BACK TOWARD THE AREA IS ANOMALOUS AND WILL TAKE THE
WARMER SOLUTION. ALSO HEAT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO RETURN TO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BARRING THE BACK DOOR FRONT... WITH LI`S
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ON THE GFS. WILL BRING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. WNW FLOW TO EASE AROUND TO THE SW AND PICK
UP SOME BEFORE MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE BACKED OFF SHOWER TIMING SOMEWHAT FOR
TOL/FDY AREAS...TIMING THE COLD FRONT AROUND 15Z TOL. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN
OH/NW PA AROUND 12Z WITH MINIMAL EFFECT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH HEATING OF THE DAY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE AND PLACED CB AT LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END WITH DRYING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTH OR
LOSS OF PEAK HEATING SOUTH. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...BUT PASSING OF A SHOWER COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS ONLY COME AROUND TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS NEXT TROUGH IS READY TO SWING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED MONDAY
FOR VFR BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE WEDNESDAY WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES FOR AVIATION DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
15-25KT WINDS/3-5FT WAVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN RIGHT NOW WOULD BE FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL AS WINDS TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THE LAKE BY MONDAY AND
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LEINS

000
FXUS61 KILN 161938
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
338 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF OUR FA WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS
TO EXIT OUT OF FA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DIURNAL CU ALSO DISSIPATING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT...WILL GO AT OR A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED AREA OF 925-850 MB CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
DROP DOWN INTO SOUTHERN FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM-WRF IS HINTING
AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THIS BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING OF ANY PCPN. WOULD HOWEVER...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST A BIT
OF A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT SO WILL TRY TO PLAY POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM BUT ONCE TIMING GETS
IRONED OUT...LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER WILL PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

WILL CONTINUE ON COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS GIVEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND VORTEX
OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK...MEANING BELOW AVG TEMPS AND OFF AN ON RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND HOW IT TRANSLATES TO RIDGING OVER
THE EAST. WENT WELL BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURS AND
FRIDAY...TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO AND ENS MEAN TEMPS. &&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCTD SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE
TAF SITES WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD DECK WL CLEAR THE TAF SITES
WITH CUMULUS CLDS DEVELOPING. CUMULUS CLDS SHUD PROVIDE VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THESE CLDS WL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
THIS EVENING.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT A SECONDARY FRONT TO DROP INTO OHIO
SAT AFTN. EXPECT SCTD CU WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INSTBY SHUD LEAD TO
SCTD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE AND IN
LAST FEW HOURS OF TAF WL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS61 KRLX 161938 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING
BRIEFLY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER STILL LOCKED IN OVER CWA IN COOL NW FLOW.  AREA OF -DZ
HAS BLOOMED WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT FROM H500 SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH
A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE ORGANIZED LINE HAS FORMED IN SE
OHIO ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECT THESE
TO WANE WITH TIME. WITH SHORTWAVE SWEEPING EASTWARD BY
MIDNIGHT...THE SHRA/DZ WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST.  DRIER
AIR SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING SOME PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP OVERNIGHT.  WET GROUND PLUS CLEARING
SKIES RAISES FOG CHANCES.  STILL...SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY BARELY
POKE INTO CWA OVERNIGHT...AND WE MAY KEEP JUST ENOUGH OF A PUFF IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. TOOK A GENERAL MAV/MET BLEND OVERALL...BUT LEANED A TOUCH
COOLER IN THE WEST WILL SKIES WILL CLEAR SOONER.

SATURDAY WILL DAWN WITH SUNSHINE...BUT NEXT FRONT WILL DROP IN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PUSHED BY SAGGING H500 HEIGHTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.  MODELS BRING FRONT TO NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA AROUND
18Z...AND DROP IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION BEFORE 00Z.  KEPT HIGHER
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS...CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM
H250 JET.  NO DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF
EVENT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .25 INCH.  MODEST INSTABILITY POOLS
ALONG FRONT WITH LI VALUES AROUND ZERO OR A BIT BELOW.  ADDED CHANCE
OF THUNDER CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY BE TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY STORM...BUT
CHANCES OF THIS SEEM MINIMAL.  RAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT THIS FRONT...AND ARE QUITE
PROLIFIC WITH THE POPS AND QPF. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING AN INITIAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT CARRY OVER
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER...AFOREMENTIONED...WEAKENING
FRONT...WILL STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOSS
OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE ACTIVITY. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MUCH OF SUNDAY AS COLD POOL ALOFT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOK FOR MODEST
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. MOST MOS GUIDANCE ARE QUITE CLOSE ON THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO
DEAL WITH IN RATHER QUICK SEQUENCE. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENDED
RANGE ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SHIFTING
ITS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL REALLY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER MUCH AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
DRYING AND COOL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
IN...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  AREA OF -DZ HAS
BLOOMED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
21Z OR SO. AFTER 00Z...WILL SEE CIGS RISING TO VFR AS SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY.  EXPECT SOME AREAS TO GO SKC OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
RAISE THE CHANCES OF FOG.  INCLUDED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...TIMING/DEPTH WILL NEED TO BE ALTERED DEPENDING ON SPEED
OF CLEARING.  FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY 14Z.  MAIN EFFECTS OF NEXT
FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS AREA AFTER
18Z SATURDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z SATURDAY/...NO WIDESPREAD IFR
EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KCLE 161937
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NARROW ZONE OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A BIT COOL. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LATE
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FROM MILLERSBURG TO YTOWN TO TITUSVILLE. COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SSW
FLOW WILL INCREASE. WITH INCREASING SURFACE WIND MAY SEE TEMPS
ACTUALLY RISE LATER TONIGHT AFTER AN EARLY FALL TONIGHT. DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK AND CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT THE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...PROBABLY MID/LATE MORNING NORTHERN COUNTIES AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

NICE DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET SAT MORN AND ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD
UVV DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW
PA DURING THE MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS START TO DRY OUT ALOFT...
PERHAPS BEFORE THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... SO
THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS INCREASES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SHORT PERIOD (SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON) THAT
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE DRYING ALOFT. I HAVE A FEELING THAT
THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM UNTIL FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE COULD BE LOOKING AT LOW TOPPED STORMS
WITH HAIL AND POTENTIAL DOWNBURST WINDS. AFTER PASSAGE OF FRONT I
THINK THERE CAN BE ENOUGH MIXING AND DRYING FOR SOME CLEARING
ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY TURN OUT TO BE A HALF
DECENT AFTERNOON. WITH COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IN DEEPENING TROUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NEW SHOWERS POPPING UP BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT
BE MUCH ACTIVITY AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS.

TEMP GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM SATURDAY GIVEN THAT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SPLIT THE DAY ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WILL START OUT WARM.
WILL STAY CLOSER TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS MODEL HAS HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AT 12Z
SUNDAY. I DOUBT THE SYSTEM WILL BE THAT STRONG AND THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...ALMOST LIKE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT WAVE/FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH CLEARING. BEST CHANCE OF A LITTLE
SUNSHINE MIGHT BE NW OHIO. IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY ALL
DAY TEMPS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE LOWER/MID 50S WHICH
MIGHT BE THE CASE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WILL FAVOR A COOL SCENARIO
AND GO AT OR BELOW THE COOLER TEMP GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW YORK STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  TO OUR WEST A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOLLOWED HPC POPS WHICH BRING A SMALL CHANCE ONTO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.  UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WOULD ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP.  REAL FOCUS
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOIST NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH HPC RECOMMENDATION OF SMALL CHANCE POPS.  WEDNESDAY
DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WHICH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE ZONES
THIS FAR OUT.  UPPER LOW SHOWN ON THE GFS AND THE (JUST IN) 12Z ECMWF
IN GOOD AGREEMENT PULLING SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH INTO THE TN VLY.  THROUGH THE DAY THE MODELS HAVE THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.  BELIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH 70
DEGREES. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GFS AND 12Z ECMWF PAINT A DIFFERENT
PICTURE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BUILD THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A SHARP RIDGE
TO OUR WEST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE AREA IS THAT THE MODEL EXTENDS AN UPPER
TROF AND EVEN A CLOSED LOW BACK SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER JUST NORTH
OF ERIE PA.  THIS WOULD THROW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE CLOSED LOW BACK TOWARD THE AREA IS ANOMALOUS AND WILL TAKE THE
WARMER SOLUTION. ALSO HEAT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO RETURN TO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BARRING THE BACK DOOR FRONT... WITH LI`S
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ON THE GFS. WILL BRING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE NOW PULLING SOUTH EAST OUT OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
NOW VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST 2/3DS OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT
LEAST THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z NAM12 SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT BUFKIT AND AWIPS
GRAPHICS TIMING FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE AFTER 06Z BEGINNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IN KCLE AREA EXPECT ONSET FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER
09-10Z OR SO LASTING THROUGH 16-18Z. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE BKN-OVC035 ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED MONDAY
FOR VFR BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
15-25KT WINDS/3-5FT WAVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN RIGHT NOW WOULD BE FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL AS WINDS TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THE LAKE BY MONDAY AND
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MID-WEEK.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LEINS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 161930
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING
BRIEFLY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER STILL LOCKED IN OVER CWA IN COOL NW FLOW.  AREA OF -DZ
HAS BLOOMED WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT FROM H500 SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH
A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE ORGANIZED LINE HAS FORMED IN SE
OHIO ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECT THESE
TO WANE WITH TIME. WITH SHORTWAVE SWEEPING EASTWARD BY MIDNIGHT...THE
SHRA/DZ WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST.  DRIER AIR SHOWING
SIGNS OF GETTING SOME PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS BREAK UP OVERNIGHT.  WET GROUND PLUS CLEARING SKIES RAISES
FOG CHANCES.  STILL...SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY BARELY POKE INTO CWA
OVERNIGHT...AND WE MAY KEEP JUST ENOUGH OF A PUFF IN THE LOW LEVELS
TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. TOOK A
GENERAL MAV/MET BLEND OVERALL...BUT LEANED A TOUCH COOLER IN THE
WEST WILL SKIES WILL CLEAR SOONER.

SATURDAY WILL DAWN WITH SUNSHINE...BUT NEXT FRONT WILL DROP IN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PUSHED BY SAGGING H500 HEIGHTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.  MODELS BRING FRONT TO NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA AROUND
18Z...AND DROP IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION BEFORE 00Z.  KEPT HIGHER
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS...CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM
H250 JET.  NO DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF
EVENT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .25 INCH.  MODEST INSTABILITY POOLS
ALONG FRONT WITH LI VALUES AROUND ZERO OR A BIT BELOW.  ADDED CHANCE
OF THUNDER CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY BE TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY STORM...BUT
CHANCES OF THIS SEEM MINIMAL.  RAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT THIS FRONT...AND ARE QUITE
PROLIFIC WITH THE POPS AND QPF. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING AN INITIAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT CARRY OVER
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER...AFOREMENTIONED...WEAKENING
FRONT...WILL STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOSS
OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE ACTIVITY. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MUCH OF SUNDAY AS COLD POOL ALOFT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOK FOR MODEST TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT STILL MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL. MOST MOS GUIDANCE ARE QUITE CLOSE ON THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO
DEAL WITH IN RATHER QUICK SEQUENCE. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENDED
RANGE ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SHIFTING
ITS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL REALLY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER MUCH AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
DRYING AND COOL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
IN...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  AREA OF -DZ HAS
BLOOMED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
21Z OR SO. AFTER 00Z...WILL SEE CIGS RISING TO VFR AS SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY.  EXPECT SOME AREAS TO GO SKC OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
RAISE THE CHANCES OF FOG.  INCLUDED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...TIMING/DEPTH WILL NEED TO BE ALTERED DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
CLEARING.  FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY 14Z.  MAIN EFFECTS OF NEXT
FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS AREA AFTER
18Z SATURDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z SATURDAY/...NO WIDESPREAD IFR
EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161832
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COOL UL PATTERN SET UP LOOKING MORE LIKE LATE OCTOBER THAN MID
MAY. RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LI`S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
RUNNING ZERO TO MINUS 1. LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING MINUS 2 H8 COMES AS FAR SOUTH
PITTSBURGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN GRIP OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. BY WEEKS END, DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS
PROJECTED TO DIG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH EASTERN
CANADIAN LOW MOVING EASTWARD. WITH THIS SCENARIO, MID CONTINENTAL
U.S. RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EASTWARD, BUT IN A FLATTENED STATE.

THUS, EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE OF TEMPERATURES MODERATING
SLIGHTLY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
A WARMING TO JUST UNDER SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDANT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXACT POSITIONING OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI-TO OHIO
VALLEY-TO MID ATLANTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE. SO, PRUDENCE DICTATES A
CONSERVATIVE/PERSISTENCE APPROACH OF POPS AT CHANCE-CLIMO NUMBERS
FOR MID WEEK WITH A DECLINE TO SLIGHT NUMBERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL AVIATION SITUATION WILL BE OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MARYLAND AT MIDDAY CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TO THE NORTH OF A MGW TO LBE
LINE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CEASE. MGW AND LBE SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AS EVE APPROACHES.

NO OVERNIGHT PROBLEMS UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...PRE DAWN WIND
SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY IN ADVANCE OF GREAT LAKES LOW TO MIX
OUT FOG POTENTIAL AT MOST AREA PORTS.

BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, DISTURBANCE INTO THE BASE OF DEVELOPING GREAT
LAKES LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DROP UNDER FALLING MID LEVEL READINGS. TAF
ISSUANCE WILL INCLUDE SATURDAY MVFR FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ONLY AS DEGRADATION IS TIMED FOR NEAR/AFTER 18Z AT PIT
AND VICINITY.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MAY HAMPER SOME FLIGHT PLANS AS AREA TERMINALS WILL BE UNDER COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NO