[top]
000
FXUS64 KTSA 062028
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY BE IN
VICINITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LIES NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ANY EVENING STORMS MAY TRACK
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE CONTAINING SOME RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN STORM FORMATION
LIMITS A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN
STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD.
RESULTANT CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN
EJECT INTO THE PLAINS AND PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES. LATEST DATA SUGGEST
THIS WILL BE A MORE ROBUST SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING HOW FAST
THE WARM FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 84 68 87 / 40 20 10 10
FSM 61 87 66 88 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 65 88 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 60 81 63 85 / 70 30 10 10
FYV 58 82 62 84 / 20 20 10 10
BYV 59 80 62 84 / 20 30 10 10
MKO 62 85 66 87 / 20 10 10 10
MIO 60 80 65 85 / 60 60 10 10
F10 64 86 67 87 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 64 89 69 89 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOUN 061937
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
237 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WAVY FRONT ACROSS TX PANHANDLE INTO OK WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS IT DRIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA. INITIAL
CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED STORMS ON OR NEAR THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SBCAPE NEAR OR OVER 2000 J/KG IN CENTRAL
OK WITH 0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING 30-50KT. CU FIELD INCREASING FROM
CENTRAL OK INTO OUR TX ZONES. SATELLITE AND MORNING UA ANALYSES
INDICATE AN IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE CENTRAL/NCENTRAL OK WHERE A COUPLE HIGH-PROFILE
OUTDOOR EVENTS WILL BE OCCURRING. LATER TONIGHT... STRENGTHENING
LLJ N OF SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY TO LEAD TO NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAINLY N OK. HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO ABOVE ALL MOS
GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS UNDERESTIMATED COVERAGE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
FRONT FORECAST TO DRIFT S TONIGHT AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING N SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO N ROCKIES. FRONT THEN FORECAST TO DROP S THROUGH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER AIR
MASS. LOW POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. BRISK N-NE WINDS AND DRIER AIR
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME DECIDEDLY FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
AFTER SOME RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK... ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST AROUND THU. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROGGED THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME WITH AN ATTENDANT
CHANCE OF PRECIP... FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS. HAVE RAISED
GFS-MOS POPS AND LOWERED THE HIGHS BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT TO
BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING GRIDS. 24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 86 68 87 / 20 10 10 10
HOBART OK 65 91 69 88 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 94 70 91 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 56 82 64 80 / 30 20 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 61 81 67 85 / 60 20 20 30
DURANT OK 64 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/24
000
FXUS64 KTSA 061725
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ALONG AND NORTH OF TUL-FYV
LINE...BUT ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES SO THERE WILL
BE NO INCLUSION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MOVE EAST...
POSSIBLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES
AFTER 08Z.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 061602 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA THIS MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA AND WILL SLOWLY
ERODE/DISSIPATE THIS AFTN IN MOST AREAS. WITH CLOUD COVER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FA... DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COULD DEVELOP.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE FRONT... ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SOME WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN... SO IF STORMS
DEVELOP... A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HAVE PULLED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
FRONT... WHICH INCLUDES THOSE AREAS BEING STRONGLY HEATED THIS
MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR... TEMPS STILL IN THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS... ESPECIALLY IN NW OK WHERE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS
AND SKY COVER TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT FURTHER PROGRESSION TO THE EAST BY THE
MCS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND TO EXTEND SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS
INTO OUR EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
AS THE MODELS INDICATED LAST NIGHT... CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS WE WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF TOWARDS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL TEND TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TODAY WHILE AN
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... SOMEWHAT REINFORCED BY THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY.
THIS SHOULD SET UP A SURFACE BOUNDARY... LIKELY NEAR OR NORTH OF
I-40... MARKED BOTH BY BACKING WINDS AND THERMAL GRADIENT... AS
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE COOLER TODAY. WITH THE
HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING... WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE... A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY. WE WILL AGAIN
GO WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER... DROPPING THEM OFF
QUICKLY TOWARDS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLES BOTH INDICATE THE CWA WILL BE
GENERALLY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MOST OF THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER UPPER FLOW WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA... IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY... PERHAPS REACHING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MOS TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE AND SEEM TO BE AWARE OF THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER... HOWEVER WE DID UNDERCUT THE MOS HIGHS BY A FEW
MORE DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 62 89 66 / 20 20 10 10
HOBART OK 88 65 93 67 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 67 96 69 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 57 85 61 / 30 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 61 84 66 / 80 50 20 20
DURANT OK 88 64 91 68 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/24
000
FXUS64 KTSA 061546
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING/VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR DEMISE. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK MORNING POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS
MOST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A RESULT. CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON APPEARS SLIM AS A STOUT CAP LOOKS
TO BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY LEFT BY MORNING STORMS.
14Z RUC DOES INDICATE IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN CAP ACROSS
OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAVE LOW PROBABILITY
OF POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL AS
LINGERING IMPACT FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. ENOUGH BREAKS
IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET REASONABLY CLOSE TO FORECAST
HIGHS SO WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AT KFYV WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 14Z. A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER AT KTUL AND
KRVS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES KXNA AND KFYV.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TAF SITES AFTER 05Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH WIDE BODIED TROUGH
WILL BRING THUNDER..AND SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES NORTHEAST OK EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKS
AS IF CITY OF TULSA WILL BE NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THAT ACTION. MARGINAL POPS RETAINED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. AN INSTANT REPLAY POSSIBILITY
AGAIN TONIGHT... WITH BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN NEAR / ON OKLAHOMA / KANSAS BORDER.
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEST LIFT NORTH WHEN H5
MB FLOW BACKS SOME. STILL LOW POPS NORTHERN TIER
ZONES. NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES COOL FRONT BOUNDARY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MORE CHANCE OF PRECIP BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BOTH..ECMWF / GFS BRING TROPICAL MISERY INTO THE
THE GULF BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 80 64 84 66 / 40 40 10 10
FSM 84 62 88 65 / 10 20 10 10
MLC 85 65 89 67 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 75 61 82 64 / 70 60 20 30
FYV 78 60 83 62 / 20 30 20 10
BYV 76 61 81 61 / 20 40 30 10
MKO 82 63 86 66 / 10 30 20 10
MIO 76 61 81 64 / 70 60 20 30
F10 83 64 87 67 / 10 20 10 10
HHW 88 64 90 68 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
000
FXUS64 KOUN 061143
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT FURTHER PROGRESSION TO THE EAST BY THE
MCS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND TO EXTEND SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS
INTO OUR EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
AS THE MODELS INDICATED LAST NIGHT... CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS WE WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF TOWARDS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL TEND TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TODAY WHILE AN
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... SOMEWHAT REINFORCED BY THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY.
THIS SHOULD SET UP A SURFACE BOUNDARY... LIKELY NEAR OR NORTH OF
I-40... MARKED BOTH BY BACKING WINDS AND THERMAL GRADIENT... AS
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE COOLER TODAY. WITH THE
HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING... WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE... A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY. WE WILL AGAIN
GO WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER... DROPPING THEM OFF
QUICKLY TOWARDS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLES BOTH INDICATE THE CWA WILL BE
GENERALLY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MOST OF THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER UPPER FLOW WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA... IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY... PERHAPS REACHING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MOS TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE AND SEEM TO BE AWARE OF THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER... HOWEVER WE DID UNDERCUT THE MOS HIGHS BY A FEW
MORE DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 62 89 66 / 20 20 10 10
HOBART OK 88 65 93 67 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 67 96 69 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 57 85 61 / 30 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 61 84 66 / 80 50 20 20
DURANT OK 88 64 91 68 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 061137
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AT KFYV WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 14Z. A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER AT KTUL AND
KRVS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES KXNA AND KFYV.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TAF SITES AFTER 05Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH WIDE BODIED TROUGH
WILL BRING THUNDER..AND SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES NORTHEAST OK EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKS
AS IF CITY OF TULSA WILL BE NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THAT ACTION. MARGINAL POPS RETAINED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. AN INSTANT REPLAY POSSIBILITY
AGAIN TONIGHT... WITH BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN NEAR / ON OKLAHOMA / KANSAS BORDER.
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEST LIFT NORTH WHEN H5
MB FLOW BACKS SOME. STILL LOW POPS NORTHERN TIER
ZONES. NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES COOL FRONT BOUNDARY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MORE CHANCE OF PRECIP BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BOTH..ECMWF / GFS BRING TROPICAL MISERY INTO THE
THE GULF BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 060941
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH WIDE BODIED TROUGH
WILL BRING THUNDER..AND SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES NORTHEAST OK EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKS
AS IF CITY OF TULSA WILL BE NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THAT ACTION. MARGINAL POPS RETAINED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. AN INSTANT REPLAY POSSIBILITY
AGAIN TONIGHT... WITH BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN NEAR / ON OKLAHOMA / KANSAS BORDER.
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEST LIFT NORTH WHEN H5
MB FLOW BACKS SOME. STILL LOW POPS NORTHERN TIER
ZONES. NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES COOL FRONT BOUNDARY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MORE CHANCE OF PRECIP BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BOTH..ECMWF / GFS BRING TROPICAL MISERY INTO THE
THE GULF BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 80 64 84 66 / 30 40 10 10
FSM 84 62 88 65 / 0 20 10 10
MLC 85 65 89 67 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 75 61 82 64 / 70 60 20 30
FYV 78 60 83 62 / 20 30 20 10
BYV 76 61 81 61 / 30 40 30 10
MKO 82 63 86 66 / 10 30 20 10
MIO 76 61 81 64 / 70 60 20 30
F10 83 64 87 67 / 10 20 10 10
HHW 88 64 90 68 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21
000
FXUS64 KOUN 060838
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
338 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AS THE MODELS INDICATED LAST NIGHT... CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS WE WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF TOWARDS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL TEND TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TODAY WHILE AN
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... SOMEWHAT REINFORCED BY THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY.
THIS SHOULD SET UP A SURFACE BOUNDARY... LIKELY NEAR OR NORTH OF
I-40... MARKED BOTH BY BACKING WINDS AND THERMAL GRADIENT... AS
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE COOLER TODAY. WITH THE
HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING... WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE... A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY. WE WILL AGAIN
GO WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER... DROPPING THEM OFF
QUICKLY TOWARDS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLES BOTH INDICATE THE CWA WILL BE
GENERALLY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MOST OF THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER UPPER FLOW WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA... IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY... PERHAPS REACHING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MOS TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE AND SEEM TO BE AWARE OF THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER... HOWEVER WE DID UNDERCUT THE MOS HIGHS BY A FEW
MORE DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 62 89 66 / 20 20 10 10
HOBART OK 88 65 93 67 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 67 96 69 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 81 57 85 61 / 30 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 76 61 84 66 / 80 50 20 20
DURANT OK 88 64 91 68 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 060454
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS
WILL TRACK EAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
000
FXUS64 KOUN 060259 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
959 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED INCLUDING
THE PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THAT FINALLY GAVE IT UP WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR. LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW
REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE.
MODELS /ESPECIALLY NAM/ STILL SHOWING DECENT QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY 12Z.
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED ZONES TO DECREASE POPS BOTH WHERE HIGHER
COVERAGE WAS OCCURRING EARLIER THIS EVENING... AND ALSO DECREASING
POPS AFTER 06Z SOMEWHAT IN ALL AREAS BUT THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE
THE PACKAGE IS IN DECENT SHAPE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN LEFT FROM TSTM COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FINALLY
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ZONES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH TX
PANHANDLE AND AN MCV NEAR PYX. EXPECT TSTMS TO FORM ALONG THE
FRONT W OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN
MCS AFFECTING WRN OK OVERNIGHT. REGION OF WAA OVER COOLER AIR NEAR
SFC WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS SAT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FA. COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA FROM WARMING TOO MUCH.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARMER AND
DRIER AREA WIDE AS BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
SAT NIGHT. FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH LEFT ALONE BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 83 65 90 / 20 20 20 10
HOBART OK 63 89 67 91 / 20 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 94 69 97 / 10 10 0 10
GAGE OK 56 79 60 85 / 40 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 58 77 64 87 / 50 30 30 20
DURANT OK 61 88 65 91 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 060151
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT
AS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH
OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES ACROSS THAT AREA. THIS COMPLEX IS THEN FORECASTED
TO MOVE INTO THE TULSA FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 052327
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...REMAINING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT...WITH
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY
MORNING...LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE KTUL/KRVS TAF
SITES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 052028
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS WAVE HAS OBVIOUSLY OVERCOME THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE TO YIELD CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER. A BRIEF
LULL IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION REORGANIZES FURTHER
WEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND EXPANDS NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL
TRACK EASTWARD AND IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY IN MONDAY LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE STRONGER FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THUS WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD SURGE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS TRANSITION PERIOD
WILL ALSO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LARGER
VARIATIONS LIKELY PENDING ANY INFLUENCES /OR LACK THEREOF/ FROM
CONVECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 59 81 66 89 / 30 40 20 20
FSM 58 84 64 90 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 60 86 67 91 / 10 10 10 0
BVO 54 79 59 85 / 30 60 40 20
FYV 53 79 58 85 / 10 20 10 10
BYV 53 77 60 83 / 10 30 10 20
MKO 58 84 64 88 / 10 20 20 10
MIO 55 79 61 84 / 20 60 20 30
F10 59 85 66 90 / 10 20 20 10
HHW 63 87 67 92 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....07
000
FXUS64 KOUN 052006
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
306 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN LEFT FROM TSTM COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FINALLY
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ZONES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH TX
PANHANDLE AND AN MCV NEAR PYX. EXPECT TSTMS TO FORM ALONG THE
FRONT W OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN
MCS AFFECTING WRN OK OVERNIGHT. REGION OF WAA OVER COOLER AIR NEAR
SFC WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS SAT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FA. COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA FROM WARMING TOO MUCH.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARMER AND
DRIER AREA WIDE AS BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
SAT NIGHT. FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH LEFT ALONE BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 83 65 90 / 30 20 20 10
HOBART OK 63 89 67 91 / 20 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 94 69 97 / 10 10 0 10
GAGE OK 55 79 60 85 / 60 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 58 77 64 87 / 50 30 30 20
DURANT OK 62 88 65 91 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/03
000
FXUS64 KTSA 051712
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS OVER
KTUL/KRVS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
EITHER SITE. MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
AT ARKANSAS LOCATIONS WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER 12Z TO KTUL/KRVS BUT ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 051608
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH MORE AND MORE
SLOWLY AS THE COMPLEX WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED EARLY
IN CONNECTION WITH THE CURRENT STORMS COMPLEX...AND CHANCES WERE
INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPS WERE LOWERED IN AREAS AFFECTED BY
OUTFLOW...WITH TEMPS IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE KS BORDER BEING LOWERED
THE MOST. CLOUDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SEEM TO BE HANGING ON AND
TEMPS MAY BE EVEN LOWER N OK IN AREAS THAT REMAIN OVERCAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO SPREAD A CHANCE FOR STORMS FARTHER EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE ACTIVITY FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING MAINLY TO THE EAST... THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NUDGES A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT... ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE
PROVIDED BY A MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AND ATTENDANT WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF INSTABILITIES INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.
THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA... BEFORE
SHIFTING BRIEFLY BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. HOWEVER... A SECOND
FRONT DROPPING BACK INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY COULD
AGAIN GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER... MODELS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE
850MB FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL CARRY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MOS TEMPS WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALTHOUGH DAY TO DAY
LOCATIONS OF FRONTS/PCPN WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING EFFECT ON THE
LOCATION OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 60 83 65 / 10 30 20 20
HOBART OK 86 63 89 67 / 10 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 65 94 69 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 82 55 79 60 / 30 60 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 58 77 64 / 60 50 30 30
DURANT OK 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/03
000
FXUS64 KTSA 051543
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT WANES AND IT ENCOUNTERS AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST. MAIN IMPACT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO
WESTERN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BLANKET NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG HAS LIFTED BUT STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER EAST CENTRAL
OK AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MAIN FORECAST CHANGES ARE TO
INTRODUCE LOW POPS TODAY NORTHWEST OF TULSA AREA AND TO HANG ON TO
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
UPDATE WILL BE OUT MOMENTARILY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KTUL TAF SITE AND MAY
SPREAD TO THE KRVS TAF SITE SHORTLY. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE HUNG TOUGH
OVER THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE KMLC TAF SITE. THE FOG WILL LIFT INTO MVFR
CEILINGS BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUDS THEN SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY
AT THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES AND AT KFSM AND AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT
KFYV AND KXNA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO MID PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. MINOR WAVES ROTATING THROUGH WILL
TEASE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
PRECIP TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FIRST WAVE SHOWING
WELL WV / IR SATELLITE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. GR2 ANALYST PARKED OVER LNX LAST SEVERAL
HOURS SHOWS FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP. EXPECT OUR AREA
TO ESCAPE PRECIP TODAY. TEMPS REACHING COMFORTABLE
LEVELS IN LOW 80S. MOST PRECIP LIKELY NORTH OF OK
TONIGHT. WEST - EAST CONVERGENT ZONE SATURDAY NEAR
KTUL-KFYV...WITH GOOD CHANCE PRECIP NORTH OF ZONE.
EXTENDED LOW CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH I40. NEXT
MINOR IMPULSE SATURDAY NIGHT IN WESTERLY FLOW JUST
GRAZES NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF ZONES. BY TUESDAY
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO H500 WAVE DIVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. USED COMPOSITE TEMPS MOST
PERIODS. GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 60 80 65 / 0 20 40 30
FSM 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 84 60 85 66 / 0 10 10 10
BVO 79 57 77 61 / 10 30 50 40
FYV 77 54 78 60 / 0 10 30 20
BYV 76 53 76 59 / 0 0 30 20
MKO 82 59 83 64 / 0 20 20 20
MIO 78 56 77 62 / 10 20 40 30
F10 82 60 82 66 / 0 20 20 20
HHW 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
000
FXUS64 KOUN 051152
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO SPREAD A CHANCE FOR STORMS FARTHER EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE ACTIVITY FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING MAINLY TO THE EAST... THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NUDGES A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT... ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE
PROVIDED BY A MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AND ATTENDANT WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF INSTABILITIES INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.
THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA... BEFORE
SHIFTING BRIEFLY BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. HOWEVER... A SECOND
FRONT DROPPING BACK INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY COULD
AGAIN GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER... MODELS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE
850MB FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL CARRY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MOS TEMPS WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALTHOUGH DAY TO DAY
LOCATIONS OF FRONTS/PCPN WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING EFFECT ON THE
LOCATION OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 60 83 65 / 0 30 20 20
HOBART OK 86 63 89 67 / 10 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 65 94 69 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 82 55 79 60 / 30 60 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 77 58 77 64 / 10 50 30 30
DURANT OK 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 051131
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KTUL TAF SITE AND MAY
SPREAD TO THE KRVS TAF SITE SHORTLY. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE HUNG TOUGH
OVER THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE KMLC TAF SITE. THE FOG WILL LIFT INTO MVFR
CEILINGS BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUDS THEN SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY
AT THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES AND AT KFSM AND AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT
KFYV AND KXNA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO MID PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. MINOR WAVES ROTATING THROUGH WILL
TEASE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
PRECIP TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FIRST WAVE SHOWING
WELL WV / IR SATELLITE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. GR2 ANALYST PARKED OVER LNX LAST SEVERAL
HOURS SHOWS FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP. EXPECT OUR AREA
TO ESCAPE PRECIP TODAY. TEMPS REACHING COMFORTABLE
LEVELS IN LOW 80S. MOST PRECIP LIKELY NORTH OF OK
TONIGHT. WEST - EAST CONVERGENT ZONE SATURDAY NEAR
KTUL-KFYV...WITH GOOD CHANCE PRECIP NORTH OF ZONE.
EXTENDED LOW CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH I40. NEXT
MINOR IMPULSE SATURDAY NIGHT IN WESTERLY FLOW JUST
GRAZES NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF ZONES. BY TUESDAY
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO H500 WAVE DIVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. USED COMPOSITE TEMPS MOST
PERIODS. GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 050939
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
439 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO MID PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. MINOR WAVES ROTATING THROUGH WILL
TEASE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
PRECIP TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FIRST WAVE SHOWING
WELL WV / IR SATELLITE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. GR2 ANALYST PARKED OVER LNX LAST SEVERAL
HOURS SHOWS FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP. EXPECT OUR AREA
TO ESCAPE PRECIP TODAY. TEMPS REACHING COMFORTABLE
LEVELS IN LOW 80S. MOST PRECIP LIKELY NORTH OF OK
TONIGHT. WEST - EAST CONVERGENT ZONE SATURDAY NEAR
KTUL-KFYV...WITH GOOD CHANCE PRECIP NORTH OF ZONE.
EXTENDED LOW CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH I40. NEXT
MINOR IMPULSE SATURDAY NIGHT IN WESTERLY FLOW JUST
GRAZES NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF ZONES. BY TUESDAY
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO H500 WAVE DIVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. USED COMPOSITE TEMPS MOST
PERIODS. GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 60 80 65 / 0 20 40 30
FSM 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 84 60 85 66 / 0 10 10 10
BVO 79 57 77 61 / 10 30 50 40
FYV 77 54 78 60 / 0 10 30 20
BYV 76 53 76 59 / 0 0 30 20
MKO 82 59 83 64 / 0 20 20 20
MIO 78 56 77 62 / 10 20 40 30
F10 82 60 82 66 / 0 20 20 20
HHW 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21
000
FXUS64 KOUN 050832
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE ACTIVITY FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING MAINLY TO THE EAST... THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NUDGES A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT... ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE
PROVIDED BY A MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AND ATTENDANT WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF INSTABILITIES INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.
THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA... BEFORE
SHIFTING BRIEFLY BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. HOWEVER... A SECOND
FRONT DROPPING BACK INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY COULD
AGAIN GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER... MODELS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE
850MB FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL CARRY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MOS TEMPS WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALTHOUGH DAY TO DAY
LOCATIONS OF FRONTS/PCPN WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING EFFECT ON THE
LOCATION OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 60 83 65 / 0 30 20 20
HOBART OK 86 63 89 67 / 10 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 65 94 69 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 82 55 79 60 / 30 60 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 77 58 77 64 / 10 50 30 30
DURANT OK 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 050454
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG
TOUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH CEILINGS
POTENTIALLY FALLING TO IFR CATEGORY LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KFYV/KXNA TAF SITES.
PATCHY IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...18
000
FXUS64 KOUN 050253
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS
EVENING IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE THE CLOUDS
MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS
STILL SHOWING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AS WELL WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN THE
PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT... BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FA. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS AND MAY MOVE/BUILD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FA FRIDAY AFTN WITH
SHWRS/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA... WHICH WILL
DETERMINE AREA OF RAIN CHANCES AND THE TEMP FORECAST FOR THE FA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT. CLOUD COVER... RAIN... AND FRONTAL POSITION WILL AFFECT MAX
TEMPS AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THIS SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SHOW RAIN CHANCES CONT MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
WEST/SOUTHWEST UPR TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 84 62 84 / 0 10 30 30
HOBART OK 61 86 66 87 / 10 20 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 92 67 93 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 54 81 57 80 / 20 20 50 20
PONCA CITY OK 56 79 59 79 / 10 20 50 40
DURANT OK 60 86 65 89 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 050158
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
858 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A DISSIPATING TREND OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...I AM STILL CONCERNED THAT THEY
WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CLOUDS BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD COVER
COULD INHIBIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 58 82 62 82 / 0 10 30 50
FSM 60 82 62 83 / 0 0 10 30
MLC 61 85 62 87 / 0 0 10 20
BVO 53 81 58 79 / 0 10 30 50
FYV 55 79 54 79 / 0 0 10 40
BYV 56 77 55 77 / 0 0 10 40
MKO 57 83 61 83 / 0 0 20 40
MIO 54 81 58 79 / 0 10 20 50
F10 59 82 60 84 / 0 10 20 40
HHW 61 86 64 88 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 042326
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING FOR THE KTUL/KRVS/KMLC SITES
ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MAY TEMPORARILY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 09-10Z. LOW STRATUS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. LOCAL 1/2SM FG POSSIBLE FOR
THE KFYV/KXNA SITES LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...18
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