[top]
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170147
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SAT AFTERNOON...
PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRES THEN ROTATE
THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 930 PM STEADY RAINS CONFINED TO NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
OBSERVED RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA ABOUT 0.20 TO 0.50 SO FAR. DRY
SLOT MOVING ACROSS NYC AND LI THIS EVENING WILL OVERSPREAD CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN BECOMING MORE
INTERMENT. HOWEVER A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS
LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATING COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHEAST CT...
LI AND THE ADJACENT WATERS AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES.
NICE COMMA HEAD BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NY STATE AT 930 PM...WHICH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY NOT MOVE OFFSHORE
UNTIL 8 AM OR SO. THUS...RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN MA /INCLUDING BOSTON...CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET/ UNTIL ABOUT 8
AM OR SO SAT.
RAIN BAND OVER NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST /PER 18Z GFS AND NAM/ TOWARD EASTERN MA /INCLUDING BOSTON/
AND RI OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY A BIT AS MID LEVEL
TROF UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION. IN ADDITION...TIME SECTIONS REVEAL A
LAYER OF INSTABILITY /SLANTWISE INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF NEGATIVE
EPV/ ABOVE THE AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT. THIS PROVIDES ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR BANDED PRECIP WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI OVERNIGHT. DON/T THINK INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.
OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A VERY STRONG /150 KT!/ UPPER LEVEL JET
OVER THE MID ATLC...PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT WITH ITS LFQ AND
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT CONTINUING TO ENHANCE LIFT
OVER THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST IS MATCHING UP WELL LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. HOWEVER...WILL REFINE QPF TO
MATCH THINKING ABOVE...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
FLOODING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES QUICKLY E...THEN STARTS TO DEVELOP THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
N GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER FAST UPPER
FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEM. WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION...WILL LIKELY
SEE LEFTOVER PRECIP OVER EASTERN AREAS SAT MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AT 12Z...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF RATHER QUICKLY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AS A WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION. WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS THE COAST. MAY EVEN SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY INTO SW NH LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH THE BRIEF BREAK OF SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...WILL SEE TEMPS HEAD TO THE 60S WITH A COUPLE OF 70 DEGREE
READINGS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS FOR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS THE LOW PUSHES E SAT MORNING. QUICKLY MOVING LOW LEVEL
JET MIGHT BRIEFLY BRING 30-35 KT WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ZIP ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING THE COAST BY
12Z SUN. NOT REALLY COLD BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPS A W-SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT TRIES TO FALL APART AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. BEST SHOT
WILL OCCUR OVER S NH WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE. EXPECT
PRECIP OFF THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z OR SO...WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
TEMPS AGAIN WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
THE LAND FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO
OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TAKING
THE RAINSHOWERS WITH IT. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING THEN CLEARING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...
PERHAPS UP AROUND NORMAL. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
AND MOVES OUT TO SEA.
WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
PRECIP DEPARTING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE
SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIKELY
THE DRIEST DAYS FOR THE WORK WEEK. PLEASANT NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
OUT TO SEA EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REGION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE THINKING IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE SAT AFTN OR EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS ACROSS ALL
WATERS. MIGHT SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW
PASSES BY S OF NANTUCKET.
SAT...STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME GALE GUSTS THROUGH 14Z ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW QUICKLY PUSHES E. WINDS WILL THEN
BACK TO W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT AGAIN...SO KEPT SMALL CRAFT UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR THE S WATERS.
SAT NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS TO PICK UP...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ON
THE OUTER WATERS AS NEXT FAST MOVING FRONT APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BELOW SCA.
WEDNESDAY...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS COME UP TO AROUND 5 FEET ON
LEFTOVER SWELL FROM THE LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TUESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ232-235-
237-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ233-234-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 948 PM
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EKSTER/RLG
MARINE...EVT/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 162046
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
446 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SAT AFTERNOON...
PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRES THEN ROTATE
THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR LOOP SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIP...AND LIKELY THE
BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...OVER CENTRAL MA MAINLY ALONG THE MASS
PIKE AT 20Z. NOTING SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
BUT APPEAR TO FILL IN RATHER QUICKLY.
LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AT 20Z AT 998 HPA...A TINY
BIT STRONGER THAN THE MODELS SUGGESTED. APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW RATHER QUICKLY EAST
TONIGHT...BUT QUESTION ABOUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
CURRENTLY IT IS EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF NY STATE. FEEL THIS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TIL AT LEAST 06Z...AND HAVE
LIKELY-CAT POPS GOING THROUGH THEN. PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT E PRETTY
QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS THE LOW HEADS OFFSHORE.
NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY INSTABILITY MOVES N INTO THE SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LI`S LOWER TO -1 RIGHT ALONG THE S COAST
AND SHOWALTER INDEX SQUEAK TO ZERO NEAR KACK AND KMVY. HAVE PUT A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY FOR THOSE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
SHIFT TO N-NW LATE AT NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES QUICKLY E...THEN STARTS TO DEVELOP THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
N GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER FAST UPPER
FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEM. WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION...WILL LIKELY
SEE LEFTOVER PRECIP OVER EASTERN AREAS SAT MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AT 12Z...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF RATHER QUICKLY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AS A WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION. WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS THE COAST. MAY EVEN SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY INTO SW NH LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH THE BRIEF BREAK OF SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...WILL SEE TEMPS HEAD TO THE 60S WITH A COUPLE OF 70 DEGREE
READINGS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS FOR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS THE LOW PUSHES E SAT MORNING. QUICKLY MOVING LOW LEVEL
JET MIGHT BRIEFLY BRING 30-35 KT WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ZIP ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING THE COAST BY
12Z SUN. NOT REALLY COLD BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPS A W-SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT TRIES TO FALL APART AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. BEST SHOT
WILL OCCUR OVER S NH WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE. EXPECT
PRECIP OFF THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z OR SO...WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
TEMPS AGAIN WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
THE LAND FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO
OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TAKING
THE RAINSHOWERS WITH IT. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING THEN CLEARING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...
PERHAPS UP AROUND NORMAL. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
AND MOVES OUT TO SEA.
WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
PRECIP DEPARTING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE
SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIKELY
THE DRIEST DAYS FOR THE WORK WEEK. PLEASANT NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
OUT TO SEA EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REGION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE THINKING IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE SAT AFTN OR EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS ACROSS ALL
WATERS. MIGHT SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW
PASSES BY S OF NANTUCKET.
SAT...STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME GALE GUSTS THROUGH 14Z ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW QUICKLY PUSHES E. WINDS WILL THEN
BACK TO W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT AGAIN...SO KEPT SMALL CRAFT UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR THE S WATERS.
SAT NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS TO PICK UP...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ON
THE OUTER WATERS AS NEXT FAST MOVING FRONT APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BELOW SCA.
WEDNESDAY...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS COME UP TO AROUND 5 FEET ON
LEFTOVER SWELL FROM THE LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TUESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ233-234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EKSTER/RLG
MARINE...EVT/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 162043
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SAT AFTERNOON...
PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES THEN STALLS OVER EASTERN
CANADA... ROTATING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...YIELDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR LOOP SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIP...AND LIKELY THE
BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...OVER CENTRAL MA MAINLY ALONG THE MASS
PIKE AT 20Z. NOTING SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
BUT APPEAR TO FILL IN RATHER QUICKLY.
LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AT 20Z AT 998 HPA...A TINY
BIT STRONGER THAN THE MODELS SUGGESTED. APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW RATHER QUICKLY EAST
TONIGHT...BUT QUESTION ABOUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
CURRENTLY IT IS EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF NY STATE. FEEL THIS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TIL AT LEAST 06Z...AND HAVE
LIKELY-CAT POPS GOING THROUGH THEN. PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT E PRETTY
QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS THE LOW HEADS OFFSHORE.
NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY INSTABILITY MOVES N INTO THE SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LI`S LOWER TO -1 RIGHT ALONG THE S COAST
AND SHOWALTER INDEX SQUEAK TO ZERO NEAR KACK AND KMVY. HAVE PUT A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY FOR THOSE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
SHIFT TO N-NW LATE AT NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES QUICKLY E...THEN STARTS TO DEVELOP THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
N GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER FAST UPPER
FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEM. WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION...WILL LIKELY
SEE LEFTOVER PRECIP OVER EASTERN AREAS SAT MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AT 12Z...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF RATHER QUICKLY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AS A WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION. WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS THE COAST. MAY EVEN SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY INTO SW NH LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH THE BRIEF BREAK OF SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...WILL SEE TEMPS HEAD TO THE 60S WITH A COUPLE OF 70 DEGREE
READINGS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS FOR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS THE LOW PUSHES E SAT MORNING. QUICKLY MOVING LOW LEVEL
JET MIGHT BRIEFLY BRING 30-35 KT WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ZIP ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING THE COAST BY
12Z SUN. NOT REALLY COLD BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPS A W-SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT TRIES TO FALL APART AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. BEST SHOT
WILL OCCUR OVER S NH WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE. EXPECT
PRECIP OFF THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z OR SO...WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
TEMPS AGAIN WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
THE LAND FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PRECIPITATION
TIMING...COVERAGE AND SKY COVER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.
SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SERVE TO
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN SECTIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INBETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES OCCUR REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW DEEPER THAN THE 18Z RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE. OVERALL CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MAINTAINED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME WITH BRIEF RIDGING POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
OUT TO SEA EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REGION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE THINKING IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE SAT AFTN OR EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS ACROSS ALL
WATERS. MIGHT SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW
PASSES BY S OF NANTUCKET.
SAT...STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME GALE GUSTS THROUGH 14Z ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW QUICKLY PUSHES E. WINDS WILL THEN
BACK TO W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT AGAIN...SO KEPT SMALL CRAFT UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR THE S WATERS.
SAT NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS TO PICK UP...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ON
THE OUTER WATERS AS NEXT FAST MOVING FRONT APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT MOST WATERS.
SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEFTOVER W SWELL WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ233-234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...NOCERA/EKSTER
MARINE...STRAUSS/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161958
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRES THEN STALLS OVER EASTERN CANADA...ROTATING
WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...YIELDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KBOX 88D RADAR SHOWS NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/N CT...BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW SO IT APPEARS
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS...BUT JUST HIGH CLOUDS
OVER E MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING E-NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON
THE S COAST. HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE CATEGORICAL PRECIP A
BIT...BUT SHOULD BE INTO ALL AREAS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE JUST ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE. SHOULD SEE AROUND 60 FOR MOST
AREAS...AND LIKELY TO LOWER 60S E MA/S CENTRAL NH. NEW ZONES AND
GRIDS SHOULD REFLECT THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
RAIN BECOMES STEADIER AND SOMEWHAT HEAVIER THIS EVENING...AS ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST TROF AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NH.
THEREFORE THE HEAVIER QPF OF THE GFS ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO
SOUTHERN NH APPEARS OVER DONE. IN ADDITION...WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR THE BENCHMARK...ATLANTIC INFLOW IS
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. SO FOR QPF LEANED TOWARD THE SREF AND ECMWF
WHICH SUPPORTS 0.10 TO 0.30 NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO SOUTHERN NH.
ELSEWHERE AROUND 0.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLE A BIT MORE CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET GIVEN PROXIMITY TO LFQ OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND
MODEST ATLC INFLOW.
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 987-991MB AT 12Z SAT ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET. GIVEN THIS AMPLIFICATION...COULD SEE SOME
LEFTOVER COMMA HEAD RAINS EARLY SAT MORNING OVER EASTERN MA. IN
ADDITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AND RI. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED MAY NEED TO HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY AS THE EVENT NEARS FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. DEFINITELY
NOT IDEAL WEATHER SAT MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
HOWEVER THE PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL YIELD VERY NICE
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY WITH MILD TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SAT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYS END ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PRECIPITATION
TIMING...COVERAGE AND SKY COVER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE CONVECTION IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK CAN HOLD TOGETHER AFTER DARK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXAMINED VIA THE GFS AND NAM WERE GREATER THAN 6 CELSIUS PER KM WITH
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO.
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWERING POPS FURTHER EAST.
SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SERVE TO
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN SECTIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INBETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES OCCUR REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW DEEPER THAN THE 18Z RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE. OVERALL CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MAINTAINED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME WITH BRIEF RIDGING POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
OUT TO SEA EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REGION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE THINKING IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE SAT AFTN OR EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY A LIGHT E-NE FLOW...INCREASING ALONG THE
S COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
WESTERN OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20-30 KTS ALL WATERS...EXCEPT A LOW PROB OF A N
TO NE GALE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD
AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
SAT...FAIRLY STRONG LOW OVER WESTERN GEORGES BANK SAT AM WITH
POSSIBLE N-NE GALE FOR THE WATERS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDDAY AND THEN WINDS SHIFTING TO SW LATE IN
THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER N SWELL ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 7 FT
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT MOST WATERS.
SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEFTOVER W SWELL WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ233-234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...NOCERA/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...STRAUSS/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161615
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1215 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRES THEN STALLS OVER EASTERN CANADA...ROTATING
WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...YIELDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KBOX 88D RADAR SHOWS NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/N CT...BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW SO IT APPEARS
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS...BUT JUST HIGH CLOUDS
OVER E MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING E-NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON
THE S COAST. HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE CATEGORICAL PRECIP A
BIT...BUT SHOULD BE INTO ALL AREAS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE JUST ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE. SHOULD SEE AROUND 60 FOR MOST
AREAS...AND LIKELY TO LOWER 60S E MA/S CENTRAL NH. NEW ZONES AND
GRIDS SHOULD REFLECT THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
RAIN BECOMES STEADIER AND SOMEWHAT HEAVIER THIS EVENING...AS ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST TROF AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NH.
THEREFORE THE HEAVIER QPF OF THE GFS ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO
SOUTHERN NH APPEARS OVER DONE. IN ADDITION...WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR THE BENCHMARK...ATLANTIC INFLOW IS
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. SO FOR QPF LEANED TOWARD THE SREF AND ECMWF
WHICH SUPPORTS 0.10 TO 0.30 NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO SOUTHERN NH.
ELSEWHERE AROUND 0.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLE A BIT MORE CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET GIVEN PROXIMITY TO LFQ OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND
MODEST ATLC INFLOW.
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 987-991MB AT 12Z SAT ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET. GIVEN THIS AMPLIFICATION...COULD SEE SOME
LEFTOVER COMMA HEAD RAINS EARLY SAT MORNING OVER EASTERN MA. IN
ADDITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AND RI. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED MAY NEED TO HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY AS THE EVENT NEARS FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. DEFINITELY
NOT IDEAL WEATHER SAT MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
HOWEVER THE PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL YIELD VERY NICE
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY WITH MILD TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SAT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYS END ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PRECIPITATION
TIMING...COVERAGE AND SKY COVER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE CONVECTION IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK CAN HOLD TOGETHER AFTER DARK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXAMINED VIA THE GFS AND NAM WERE GREATER THAN 6 CELSIUS PER KM WITH
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO.
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWERING POPS FURTHER EAST.
SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SERVE TO
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN SECTIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INBETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES OCCUR REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW DEEPER THAN THE 18Z RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE. OVERALL CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MAINTAINED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME WITH BRIEF RIDGING POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR FOR MOST AREAS. WILL START TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO CONNECTICUT VALLEY OF MA/CT AFTER 18Z OR
SO...PUSHING E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING ON THE S COAST AFTER 21Z.
TONIGHT...IFR-MVFR WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS EARLY ACROSS PVD/BOS/HYA AND ACK...THEN
VFR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY A LIGHT E-NE FLOW...INCREASING ALONG THE
S COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
WESTERN OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20-30 KTS ALL WATERS...EXCEPT A LOW PROB OF A N
TO NE GALE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD
AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
SAT...FAIRLY STRONG LOW OVER WESTERN GEORGES BANK SAT AM WITH
POSSIBLE N-NE GALE FOR THE WATERS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDDAY AND THEN WINDS SHIFTING TO SW LATE IN
THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER N SWELL ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 7 FT
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT MOST WATERS.
SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEFTOVER W SWELL WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ230>232-250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ233>237-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...EVT/NOCERA/STRAUSS
MARINE...EVT/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161102
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LOW PRES THEN STALLS OVER EASTERN CANADA...ROTATING WEAK
FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AT 630AM. LOCATIONS AROUND THE
NYC METRO AREA INCLUDING HPN AND LGA HAVE ALREADY MEASURED PCPN.
THEREFORE HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF PCPN BY A FEW HOURS. THE GFS APPEARS
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE QUICKER TIMING VERSUS THE SLOWER NAM.
ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
SHORT WAVE TROF EXITING THE OH AND TN VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
OVERSPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING...SO
RAIN TODAY SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT. THUS...NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
RAIN BECOMES STEADIER AND SOMEWHAT HEAVIER THIS EVENING...AS ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST TROF AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NH.
THEREFORE THE HEAVIER QPF OF THE GFS ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO
SOUTHERN NH APPEARS OVER DONE. IN ADDITION...WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR THE BENCHMARK...ATLANTIC INFLOW IS
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. SO FOR QPF LEANED TOWARD THE SREF AND ECMWF
WHICH SUPPORTS 0.10 TO 0.30 NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO SOUTHERN NH.
ELSEWHERE AROUND 0.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLE A BIT MORE CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET GIVEN PROXIMITY TO LFQ OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND
MODEST ATLC INFLOW.
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 987-991MB AT 12Z SAT ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET. GIVEN THIS AMPLIFICATION...COULD SEE SOME
LEFTOVER COMMAHEAD RAINS EARLY SAT MORNING OVER EASTERN MA. IN
ADDITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AND RI. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED MAY NEED TO HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY AS THE EVENT NEARS FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. DEFINITELY
NOT IDEAL WEATHER SAT MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
HOWEVER THE PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL YIELD VERY NICE
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY WITH MILD TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SAT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYS END ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PRECIPITATION
TIMING...COVERAGE AND SKY COVER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE CONVECTION IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK CAN HOLD TOGETHER AFTER DARK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXAMINED VIA THE GFS AND NAM WERE GREATER THAN 6 CELSIUS PER KM WITH
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO.
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWERING POPS FURTHER EAST.
SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SERVE TO
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN SECTIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INBETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES OCCUR REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW DEEPER THAN THE 18Z RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE. OVERALL CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MAINTAINED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME WITH BRIEF RIDGING POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MVFR OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...IFR-MVFR WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS EARLY ACROSS PVD/BOS/HYA AND ACK...THEN
VFR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...NE 20-30 ALL WATERS...EXCEPT A LOW PROB OF A N TO NE GALE
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD AS THE GALE
CENTER TRACKS CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
SAT...FAIRLY STRONG LOW OVER WESTERN GEORGES BANK SAT AM WITH
POSSIBLE N-NE GALE FOR THE WATERS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDDAY AND THEN WINDS SHIFTING TO SW LATE IN
THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER N SWELL ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 7 FT
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT MOST WATERS.
SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEFTOVER W SWELL WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ230>232-250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ233>237-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...NOCERA/STRAUSS
MARINE...NOCERA/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 160835
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LOW PRES THEN STALLS OVER EASTERN CANADA...ROTATING WEAK
FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH AT
330 AM RAIN ENTERING EASTERN PA AND NJ. SHORT WAVE TROF EXITING THE
OH AND TN VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL OVERSPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING...SO RAIN TODAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
LIGHT. THUS...NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. IN FACT ACROSS NORTHEAST MA
/CAPE ANN AREA/ INTO SOUTHEAST NH RAIN MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR TAKES SOMETIME TO SATURATE.
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...TONIGHT...
RAIN BECOMES STEADIER AND SOMEWHAT HEAVIER THIS EVENING...AS ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST TROF AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NH.
THEREFORE THE HEAVIER QPF OF THE GFS ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO
SOUTHERN NH APPEARS OVER DONE. IN ADDITION...WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR THE BENCHMARK...ATLANTIC INFLOW IS
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. SO FOR QPF LEANED TOWARD THE SREF AND ECMWF
WHICH SUPPORTS 0.10 TO 0.30 NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO SOUTHERN NH.
ELSEWHERE AROUND 0.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLE A BIT MORE CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET GIVEN PROXIMITY TO LFQ OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND
MODEST ATLC INFLOW.
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 987-991MB AT 12Z SAT ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET. GIVEN THIS AMPLIFICATION...COULD SEE SOME
LEFTOVER COMMAHEAD RAINS EARLY SAT MORNING OVER EASTERN MA. IN
ADDITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AND RI. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED MAY NEED TO HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY AS THE EVENT NEARS FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. DEFINITELY
NOT IDEAL WEATHER SAT MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
HOWEVER THE PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL YIELD VERY NICE
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY WITH MILD TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SAT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYS END ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PRECIPITATION
TIMING...COVERAGE AND SKY COVER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE CONVECTION IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK CAN HOLD TOGETHER AFTER DARK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXAMINED VIA THE GFS AND NAM WERE GREATER THAN 6 CELSIUS PER KM WITH
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO.
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWERING POPS FURTHER EAST.
SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SERVE TO
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN SECTIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INBETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES OCCUR REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW DEEPER THAN THE 18Z RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE. OVERALL CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MAINTAINED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME WITH BRIEF RIDGING POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MVFR OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...IFR-MVFR WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS EARLY ACROSS PVD/BOS/HYA AND ACK...THEN
VFR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...NE 20-30 ALL WATERS...EXCEPT A LOW PROB OF A N TO NE GALE
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD AS THE GALE
CENTER TRACKS CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
SAT...FAIRLY STRONG LOW OVER WESTERN GEORGES BANK SAT AM WITH
POSSIBLE N-NE GALE FOR THE WATERS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDDAY AND THEN WINDS SHIFTING TO SW LATE IN
THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER N SWELL ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 7 FT
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT MOST WATERS.
SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEFTOVER W SWELL WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ230>232-250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ233>237-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...NOCERA/STRAUSS
MARINE...NOCERA/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 160230
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COOL FRONT EXITS THE COAST OVERNIGHT...THEN LOW PRES TRACKS OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING. WHILE LOW PRES STALLS
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES...AS DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODIFIED WINDS TO REFLECT
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH FOG SHOULD NOT BE DENSE.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OH/TN
VALLEY LOW NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF RAIN NR THE LOW
CENTER. DEWPOINTS ALREADY 50 IN SNE WILL PRESS SWD BY MORNING...BUT
SFC TDS 6OS IN VA AND SIZABLE OVERRUNNING WITH A CLEARLY SHARPENING
MID LVL SHORT WAVE /EC AND GFS SEEN IN DIFFERENT WAYS INCLUDING
HFC/500-300 DIV OF Q/ TRAVERSING OUR AREA BY SAT MORNING. I THINK OUR
QPF IS TOO LOW BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL DO. BASICALLY AM EXPECTING RAIN
TO SPREAD IN RAPIDLY DURING MIDDAY FRI OR FRI AFTN AND EXIT EARLY
SAT. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY S COAST...BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH QPF TO
GET THE HEAVY WORDING.
TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN ONSET.
WINDS ARE BASICALLY A NAM/GFS MOS 50/50 COMPROMISE.
BOTTOM LINE...I AM PRETTY CERTAIN OF RAIN MA PIKE SWD LATE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.
MAY HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUD TOO LONG SATURDAY MORNING.
STIFF NLY FLOW VCNTY ACK MAY YIELD A BRIEF WIND ADVY THERE AROUND
09Z-12Z SATURDAY?
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...BUT IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON EXITING LOW PRES MOVING OFF CAPE COD SAT MORNING. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW OVER N NEW ENGLAND/S QUEBEC SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT
LEAST FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER SE AND
CENTRAL AREAS. BEST SHOT OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 20Z OVER THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/SW NH. MIGHT EVEN SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION TAKE PLACE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. HELD OFF MENTIONING THIS
IN FORECAST FOR NOW.
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE
OVER SE CANADA.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDE SPREAD WITH SURFACE
FEATURES...THOUGH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...I.E. THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA. THE LOW MAY TRY TO SHIFT N LATER IN
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MODELS SIGNALING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW MIGHT
TRY TO TAKE ITS PLACE.
IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MIGHT SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT TIMING IS
SUSPECT. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER SHOT OF PRECIP WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW LEVELS
ARE PRETTY DRY SO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BRIEF SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE POSSIBLE
CT VALLEY...BUT IT/S A VERY LOW PROB. VFR FRI MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE FRI AFTN IN DVLPNG RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLE IFR FRI NIGHT IN RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS. MVFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SUN THROUGH TUE...MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS FOR VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NOTED THAT E SWELLS ON THE EASTERN WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN
AT 5-7 FT AT 9-11 SEC PERIODS ON LATEST BUOY REPORTS...INCLUDING
BUOY 017 E OF NANTUCKET. NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF SUBSIDING SOON...SO
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO 3 AM AND INCLUDED THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATERS FROM NANTUCKET TO MONTAUK.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS
EVENING.
FRI NIGHT...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. POSSIBLE GALE VCNTY CAPE COD
IN NLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH WILL
START OFF AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY NEED TO CONTINUE SCA FOR
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS THEY BACK TO SW AT NIGHT.
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...EXPECT SCA FOR SEAS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SUN...SW WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL.
MON THROUGH TUE...WILL CONTINUE SW FLOW...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO W OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATE TUE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 1030 PM
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 152225
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
625 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COOL FRONT EXITS THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN LOW PRES TRACKS OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING. WHILE LOW
PRES STALLS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG CFP THIS EVENING. POPS MAY NEED FURTHER
REFINEMENT BOTH WAYS..UP AND DOWN AS THIS UNFOLDS BUT SFC TDS NR 50
PLUS 18Z RUC RH FIELDS AND PRIOR 12Z EC/GFS AND NEW 00Z NAM SUGGEST
NEED SCT EVENING SHOWERS.
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF RAIN NR THE LOW
CENTER. DEWPOINTS ALREADY 50 IN SNE WILL PRESS SWD BY MORNING...BUT
SFC TDS 6OS IN VA AND SIZABLE OVERRUNNING WITH A CLEARLY SHARPENING
MID LVL SHORT WAVE /EC AND GFS SEEN IN DIFFERENT WAYS INCLUDING
HFC/500-300 DIV OF Q/ TRAVERSING OUR AREA BY SAT MORNING. I THINK OUR
QPF IS TOO LOW BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL DO. BASICALLY AM EXPECTING RAIN
TO SPREAD IN RAPIDLY DURING MIDDAY FRI OR FRI AFTN AND EXIT EARLY
SAT. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY S COAST...BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH QPF TO
GET THE HEAVY WORDING.
TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN ONSET.
WINDS ARE BASICALLY A NAM/GFS MOS 50/50 COMPROMISE.
BOTTOM LINE...I AM PRETTY CERTAIN OF RAIN MA PIKE SWD LATE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.
MAY HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUD TOO LONG SATURDAY MORNING.
STIFF NLY FLOW VCNTY ACK MAY YIELD A BRIEF WIND ADVY THERE AROUND
09Z-12Z SATURDAY?
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...BUT IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON EXITING LOW PRES MOVING OFF CAPE COD SAT MORNING. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW OVER N NEW ENGLAND/S QUEBEC SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT
LEAST FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER SE AND
CENTRAL AREAS. BEST SHOT OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 20Z OVER THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/SW NH. MIGHT EVEN SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION TAKE PLACE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. HELD OFF MENTIONING THIS
IN FORECAST FOR NOW.
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE
OVER SE CANADA.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDE SPREAD WITH SURFACE
FEATURES...THOUGH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...I.E. THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA. THE LOW MAY TRY TO SHIFT N LATER IN
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MODELS SIGNALING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW MIGHT
TRY TO TAKE ITS PLACE.
IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MIGHT SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT TIMING IS
SUSPECT. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER SHOT OF PRECIP WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW LEVELS
ARE PRETTY DRY SO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BRIEF SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE POSSIBLE
CT VALLEY...BUT IT/S A VERY LOW PROB. VFR FRI MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE FRI AFTN IN DVLPNG RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLE IFR FRI NIGHT IN RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS. MVFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SUN THROUGH TUE...MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS FOR VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NOTED THAT E SWELLS ON THE EASTERN WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN
AT 5-7 FT AT 9-11 SEC PERIODS ON LATEST BUOY REPORTS...INCLUDING
BUOY 017 E OF NANTUCKET. NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF SUBSIDING SOON...SO
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO 3 AM AND INCLUDED THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATERS FROM NANTUCKET TO MONTAUK.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS
EVENING.
FRI NIGHT...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. POSSIBLE GALE VCNTY CAPE COD
IN NLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH WILL
START OFF AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY NEED TO CONTINUE SCA FOR
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS THEY BACK TO SW AT NIGHT.
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...EXPECT SCA FOR SEAS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SUN...SW WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL.
MON THROUGH TUE...WILL CONTINUE SW FLOW...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO W OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATE TUE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 152052
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COOL FRONT EXITS THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN LOW PRES TRACKS OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING. WHILE LOW
PRES STALLS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG CFP THIS EVENING. POPS MAY NEED FURTHER
REFINEMENT BOTH WAYS..UP AND DOWN AS THIS UNFOLDS BUT SFC TDS NR 50
PLUS 18Z RUC RH FIELDS AND PRIOR 12Z EC/GFS AND NEW 00Z NAM SUGGEST
NEED SCT EVENING SHOWERS.
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF RAIN NR THE LOW
CENTER. DEWPOINTS ALREADY 50 IN SNE WILL PRESS SWD BY MORNING...BUT
SFC TDS 6OS IN VA AND SIZABLE OVERRUNNING WITH A CLEARLY SHARPENING
MID LVL SHORT WAVE /EC AND GFS SEEN IN DIFFERENT WAYS INCLUDING
HFC/500-300 DIV OF Q/ TRAVERSING OUR AREA BY SAT MORNING. I THINK OUR
QPF IS TOO LOW BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL DO. BASICALLY AM EXPECTING RAIN
TO SPREAD IN RAPIDLY DURING MIDDAY FRI OR FRI AFTN AND EXIT EARLY
SAT. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY S COAST... BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH QPF TO
GET THE HEAVY WORDING.
TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN ONSET.
WINDS ARE BASICALLY A NAM/GFS MOS 50/50 COMPROMISE.
BOTTOM LINE... I AM PRETTY CERTAIN OF RAIN MA PIKE SWD LATE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.
MAY HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUD TOO LONG SATURDAY MORNING.
STIFF NLY FLOW VCNTY ACK MAY YIELD A BRIEF WIND ADVY THERE AROUND
09Z-12Z SATURDAY?
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...BUT IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON EXITING LOW PRES MOVING OFF CAPE COD SAT MORNING. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW OVER N NEW ENGLAND/S QUEBEC SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT
LEAST FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER SE AND
CENTRAL AREAS. BEST SHOT OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 20Z OVER THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/SW NH. MIGHT EVEN SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION TAKE PLACE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. HELD OFF MENTIONING THIS
IN FORECAST FOR NOW.
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE
OVER SE CANADA.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDE SPREAD WITH SURFACE
FEATURES...THOUGH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...I.E. THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA. THE LOW MAY TRY TO SHIFT N LATER IN
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MODELS SIGNALING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW MIGHT
TRY TO TAKE ITS PLACE.
IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MIGHT SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT TIMING IS
SUSPECT. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER SHOT OF PRECIP WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW LEVELS
ARE PRETTY DRY SO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BRIEF SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE POSSIBLE
CT VALLEY...BUT IT/S A VERY LOW PROB. VFR FRI MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE FRI AFTN IN DVLPNG RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLE IFR FRI NIGHT IN RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS. MVFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SUN THROUGH TUE...MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS FOR VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPIRES 8PM...E SWELL EBBING SLOWLY
MASS OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS
EVENING.
FRI NIGHT...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. POSSIBLE GALE VCNTY CAPE COD
IN NLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH WILL
START OFF AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY NEED TO CONTINUE SCA FOR
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS THEY BACK TO SW AT NIGHT.
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...EXPECT SCA FOR SEAS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SUN...SW WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL.
MON THROUGH TUE...WILL CONTINUE SW FLOW...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO W OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATE TUE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 152029
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG CFP THIS EVENING. POPS MAY NEED FURTHER
REFINEMENT BOTH WAYS..UP AND DOWN AS THIS UNFOLDS BUT SFC TDS NR 50
PLUS 18Z RUC RH FIELDS AND PRIOR 12Z EC/GFS AND NEW 00Z NAM SUGGEST
NEED SCT EVENING SHOWERS.
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF RAIN NR THE LOW
CENTER. DEWPOINTS ALREADY 50 IN SNE WILL PRESS SWD BY MORNING...BUT
SFC TDS 6OS IN VA AND SIZABLE OVERRUNNING WITH A CLEARLY SHARPENING
MID LVL SHORT WAVE /EC AND GFS SEEN IN DIFFERENT WAYS INCLUDING
HFC/500-300 DIV OF Q/ TRAVERSING OUR AREA BY SAT MORNING. I THINK OUR
QPF IS TOO LOW BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL DO. BASICALLY AM EXPECTING RAIN
TO SPREAD IN RAPIDLY DURING MIDDAY FRI OR FRI AFTN AND EXIT EARLY
SAT. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY S COAST... BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH QPF TO
GET THE HEAVY WORDING.
TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN ONSET.
WINDS ARE BASICALLY A NAM/GFS MOS 50/50 COMPROMISE.
BOTTOM LINE... I AM PRETTY CERTAIN OF RAIN MA PIKE SWD LATE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.
MAY HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUD TOO LONG SATURDAY MORNING.
STIFF NLY FLOW VCNTY ACK MAY YIELD A BRIEF WIND ADVY THERE AROUND
09Z-12Z SATURDAY?
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE AROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW LEVELS
ARE PRETTY DRY SO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BRIEF SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE POSSIBLE
CT VALLEY...BUT IT/S A VERY LOW PROB. VFR FRI MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE FRI AFTN IN DVLPING RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLE IFR FRI NIGHT IN RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPIRES 8PM...E SWELL EBBING SLOWLY
MASS OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
FRI NIGHT...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. POSSIBLE GALE VCNTY CAPE COD
IN NLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW .
OUTLOOK...
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 152024
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG CFP THIS EVENING. POPS MAY NEED FURTHER
REFINEMENT BOTH WAYS..UP AND DOWN AS THIS UNFOLDS BUT SFC TDS NR 50
PLUS 18Z RUC RH FIELDS AND PRIOR 12Z EC/GFS AND NEW 00Z NAM SUGGEST
NEED SCT EVENING SHOWERS.
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF RAIN NR THE LOW
CENTER. DEWPOINTS ALREADY 50 IN SNE WILL PRESS SWD BY MORNING...BUT
SFC TDS 6OS IN VA AND SIZABLE OVERRUNNING WITH A CLEARLY SHARPENING
MID LVL SHORT WAVE /EC AND GFS SEEN IN DIFFERENT WAYS INCLUDING
HFC/500-300 DIV OF Q/ TRAVERSING OUR AREA BY SAT MORNING. I THINK OUR
QPF IS TOO LOW BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL DO. BASICALLY AM EXPECTING RAIN
TO SPREAD IN RAPIDLY DURING MIDDAY FRI OR FRI AFTN AND EXIT EARLY
SAT. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY S COAST... BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH QPF TO
GET THE HEAVY WORDING.
TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN ONSET.
WINDS ARE BASICALLY A NAM/GFS MOS 50/50 COMPROMISE.
BOTTOM LINE... I AM PRETTY CERTAIN OF RAIN MA PIKE SWD LATE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.
MAY HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUD TOO LONG SATURDAY MORNING.
STIFF NLY FLOW VCNTY ACK MAY YIELD A BRIEF WIND ADVY THERE AROUND
09Z-12Z SATURDAY?
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ORH BAF PVD BOS SHIFTS TO CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...OTRW VFR.
FRI AFTN AND NIGHT...DEGRADING TO MVFR-IFR RAIN. NE TO N WIND WILL
BE A FACTOR AT HYA AND ACK FRI NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPIRES 8PM...E SWELL EBBING SLOWLY
MASS OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
FRI NIGHT...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. POSSIBLE GALE VCNTY CAPE COD
IN NLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW .
OUTLOOK...
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG 423
SHORT TERM...DRAG 423
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...DRAG 423
MARINE...DRAG 423
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151958
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SENT FOR A QUICK GLANCE AT WWA FOR MARINE. WD 357P
GRIDS HAVE SCT IN THEM AS I ATTEMPT TO TIME THIS PASSAGE.
EARLIER TODAY...WIDESPREAD .01 TO .08 11Z-15Z NRN HFD COUNTY CT THRU
THE W THIRD OF MA AND INTO THE MONADNOCKS... REST IS SPOTTY TRACES
AND .01S IN THEIR DIMINISHING PHASE NOW EXITING E MASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THU NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY...NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN TRACKS
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN RGEM
REGARDING THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS ITS FEATURES MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLED ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER UNDERCUT POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NW INTERIOR...DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT A VERY MAY LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH +PNA AND A -NAO IN PLACE
THIS PERIOD /ALBEIT WEAK/. WHERE WAS THIS PATTERN DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS? MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW. 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE
AN AMPLIFIED OUTLIER WITH THE 00Z GGEM AND 00Z UKMET OFFERING A MUCH
FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z
ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIT SUPPORTS A MEAN TROF AXIS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE...DESPITE MODELS BEING OVER ZEALOUS WITH PREVIOUS
COASTAL/OCEAN STORMS PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
SO REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...FOR FRI NIGHT LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MA AND RI WITH CATEGORICAL POPS /75% AND
HIGHER/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE. HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
COAST...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A LIGHT RAINFALL.
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOX HAS RTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SCT RW-/RW-- EXITING E MASS BTWN 16Z-17Z. VFR THIS
AFTN TIL NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS IN NYS AT 1645Z PROBABLY DEVELOPS ACROSS
SNE AS SFC HEATING INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH SMC ALONG SFC CFRONT
GENERATES MVFR CONDS SHWRS. ITS GRIDDED NOW AS SCT SHOWERS. MAY SEE
ISO THUNDER. NOTE THE STRONG THE BRIEF 50 DBZ CATSKILLS NE PA AT 1645Z.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ORH BAF PVD BOS SHIFTS TO CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...OTRW VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR AM...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH COAST LATE
DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS...RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SENT FOR THE UPDATED WWA SECTION ON MARINE. WD 357P.
TODAY...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...E SWELL CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW
HAVE NE WIND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WIND SOUTH COAST.
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...DRAG
MARINE...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151651
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOX UPDATED PRODUCTS ARD 1225 PM...PRIMARILY GOING FOR SCT SHOWERS
THIS AFTN. SEE THE LINE IN NYS. CFP GENERATED IN LOCAL HEAT RELATED
SFC INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME POOLING OF 28KI ALONG THE FRONT.
COULD SEE ISO THUNDER BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM.
GRIDS HAVE SCT IN THEM AS I ATTEMPT TO TIME THIS PASSAGE.
EARLIER TODAY...WIDESPREAD .01 TO .08 11Z-15Z NRN HFD COUNTY CT THRU
THE W THIRD OF MA AND INTO THE MONADNOCKS... REST IS SPOTTY TRACES
AND .01S IN THEIR DIMINISHING PHASE NOW EXITING E MASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THU NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY...NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN TRACKS
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN RGEM
REGARDING THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS ITS FEATURES MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLED ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER UNDERCUT POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NW INTERIOR...DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT A VERY MAY LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH +PNA AND A -NAO IN PLACE
THIS PERIOD /ALBEIT WEAK/. WHERE WAS THIS PATTERN DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS? MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW. 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE
AN AMPLIFIED OUTLIER WITH THE 00Z GGEM AND 00Z UKMET OFFERING A MUCH
FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z
ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIT SUPPORTS A MEAN TROF AXIS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE...DESPITE MODELS BEING OVER ZEALOUS WITH PREVIOUS
COASTAL/OCEAN STORMS PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
SO REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...FOR FRI NIGHT LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MA AND RI WITH CATEGORICAL POPS /75% AND
HIGHER/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE. HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
COAST...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A LIGHT RAINFALL.
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOX HAS RTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SCT RW-/RW-- EXITING E MASS BTWN 16Z-17Z. VFR THIS
AFTN TIL NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS IN NYS AT 1645Z PROBABLY DEVELOPS ACROSS
SNE AS SFC HEATING INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH SMC ALONG SFC CFRONT
GENERATES MVFR CONDS SHWRS. ITS GRIDDED NOW AS SCT SHOWERS. MAY SEE
ISO THUNDER. NOTE THE STRONG THE BRIEF 50 DBZ CATSKILLS NE PA AT 1645Z.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ORH BAF PVD BOS SHIFTS TO CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...OTRW VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR AM...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH COAST LATE
DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS...RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...E SWELL CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW
HAVE NE WIND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WIND SOUTH COAST.
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 1250
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS 1250
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151535
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1135 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOX UPDATED PRODUCTS ARD 1125 AM...PRIMARILY AFTN TEMPS.
IN ESSENCE WIDESPREAD .01 TO .08 11Z-15Z NRN HFD COUNTY CT THRU THE W
THIRD OF MA AND INTO THE MONADNOCKS... REST IS SPOTTY TRACES AND .01S
IN THEIR DIMINISHING PHASE NOW EXITING E MASS.
NOWCAST HAS IT OKAY.
SINCE WE RTS FOR OUR EMERGENCY PATCH UPGRADE...WE HAVE MODIFIED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY.
NEXT NOONISH UPDATE WILL INCORPORATE THE 12Z GFS AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN.
GIVEN AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SOME FAVORABLE (BUT WEAKENING)
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST H85 THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM 12Z TO 18Z JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THU NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY...NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN TRACKS
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN RGEM
REGARDING THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS ITS FEATURES MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLED ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER UNDERCUT POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NW INTERIOR...DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT A VERY MAY LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH +PNA AND A -NAO IN PLACE
THIS PERIOD /ALBEIT WEAK/. WHERE WAS THIS PATTERN DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS? MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW. 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE
AN AMPLIFIED OUTLIER WITH THE 00Z GGEM AND 00Z UKMET OFFERING A MUCH
FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z
ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIT SUPPORTS A MEAN TROF AXIS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE...DESPITE MODELS BEING OVER ZEALOUS WITH PREVIOUS
COASTAL/OCEAN STORMS PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
SO REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...FOR FRI NIGHT LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MA AND RI WITH CATEGORICAL POPS /75% AND
HIGHER/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE. HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
COAST...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A LIGHT RAINFALL.
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOX HAS RTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SCT RW-/RW-- EXITING E MASS BTWN 16Z-17Z. VFR THIS
AFTN.
NOTING WDSPRD MVFR/SCT IFR IN NYS AND THAT PLAYS A ROLE IN WHAT
HAPPENS IN SNE TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE HEATING DRIVEN SHOWERS "POSSIBLE" THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
LATER.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ORH BAF PVD BOS SHIFTS TO CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...OTRW VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR AM...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH COAST LATE
DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS...RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...E SWELL CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW
HAVE NE WIND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WIND SOUTH COAST.
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 1135A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS 1135A
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151426
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOX UPDATED PRODUCTS THRU 1025 AM.
OFF LINE 1030A-1130A. OKX BACKUP...UPDATED FOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/RH TRENDS THIS MORNING..
FCST UPTHERE IS SOME SIGN OF PURE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS MID OR
LATE AFTN. STAY TUNED FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE LATER TODAY.
GIVEN AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SOME FAVORABLE (BUT WEAKENING)
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST H85 THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM 12Z TO 18Z JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THU NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY...NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN TRACKS
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN RGEM
REGARDING THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS ITS FEATURES MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLED ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER UNDERCUT POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NW INTERIOR...DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT A VERY MAY LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH +PNA AND A -NAO IN PLACE
THIS PERIOD /ALBEIT WEAK/. WHERE WAS THIS PATTERN DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS? MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW. 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE
AN AMPLIFIED OUTLIER WITH THE 00Z GGEM AND 00Z UKMET OFFERING A MUCH
FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z
ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIT SUPPORTS A MEAN TROF AXIS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE...DESPITE MODELS BEING OVER ZEALOUS WITH PREVIOUS
COASTAL/OCEAN STORMS PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
SO REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...FOR FRI NIGHT LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MA AND RI WITH CATEGORICAL POPS /75% AND
HIGHER/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE. HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
COAST...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A LIGHT RAINFALL.
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOX OFFLINE 1030A-1130A. OKX BACKUP.
TODAY...SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS ASSOCIATED
WITH INSTABILITY BURST ESPECIALLY BAF-CEF-LWM NORTHWARD INTO MHT EEN.
NOTING WDSPRD MVFR/SCT IFR IN NYS AND THAT PLAYS A ROLE IN WHAT
HAPPENS IN SNE TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE HEATING DRIVEN SHOWERS "POSSIBLE" THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
LATER.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ORH BAF PVD BOS SHIFTS TO CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...OTRW VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR AM...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH COAST LATE
DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS...RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...E SWELL CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW
HAVE NE WIND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WIND SOUTH COAST.
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151339
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
939 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED ONCE AGAIN ARD 925 AM FOR MONADS...MHT ASH REGION OF
SNH...HIGHER POPS AND THEN FOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EVERYWHERE IN SNE THRU
19Z.
ON THIS EVENT FM THE 12Z/14 AND 00Z/15 MODEL RUNS. THIS IB WEAKENS
THIS AFTN BUT THERE IS SOME SIGN OF PURE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS
MID OR LATE AFTN. STAY TUNED FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE LATER TODAY.
GIVEN AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SOME FAVORABLE (BUT WEAKENING)
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST H85 THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM 12Z TO 18Z JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THU NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY...NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN TRACKS
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN RGEM
REGARDING THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS ITS FEATURES MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLED ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER UNDERCUT POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NW INTERIOR...DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT A VERY MAY LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH +PNA AND A -NAO IN PLACE
THIS PERIOD /ALBEIT WEAK/. WHERE WAS THIS PATTERN DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS? MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW. 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE
AN AMPLIFIED OUTLIER WITH THE 00Z GGEM AND 00Z UKMET OFFERING A MUCH
FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z
ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIT SUPPORTS A MEAN TROF AXIS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE...DESPITE MODELS BEING OVER ZEALOUS WITH PREVIOUS
COASTAL/OCEAN STORMS PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
SO REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...FOR FRI NIGHT LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MA AND RI WITH CATEGORICAL POPS /75% AND
HIGHER/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE. HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
COAST...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A LIGHT RAINFALL.
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY BURST ESPECIALLY BAF-CEF-LWM NORTHWARD INTO MHT EEN.
NOTING WDSPRD MVFR/SCT IFR IN NYS AND THAT PLAYS A ROLE IN WHAT
HAPPENS IN SNE TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE HEATING DRIVEN SHOWERS "POSSIBLE" THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
LATER.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ORH BAF PVD BOS SHIFTS TO CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...OTRW VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR AM...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH COAST LATE
DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS...RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...E SWELL CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW
HAVE NE WIND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WIND SOUTH COAST.
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 938
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS 938
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151220
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
820 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ITS RAINING ALL OVER THE PLACE IN WESTERN MASS. NEAR TERM GRIDS ARE
UPDATED. NOWBOX HANDLES. ECMWF APPEARS SUPERIOR ON THIS EVENT FM THE
12Z/14 AND 00Z/15 MODEL RUNS. THIS IB WEAKENS THIS AFTN BUT THERE IS
SOME SIGN OF PURE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS MID OR LATE AFTN. STAY
TUNED FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE LATER TODAY.
GIVEN AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SOME FAVORABLE (BUT WEAKENING)
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST H85 THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM 12Z TO 18Z JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SOMEWHAT TRICKY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THU NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY...NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN TRACKS
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN RGEM
REGARDING THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS ITS FEATURES MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLED ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER UNDERCUT POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NW INTERIOR...DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT A VERY MAY LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH +PNA AND A -NAO IN PLACE
THIS PERIOD /ALBEIT WEAK/. WHERE WAS THIS PATTERN DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS? MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW. 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE
AN AMPLIFIED OUTLIER WITH THE 00Z GGEM AND 00Z UKMET OFFERING A MUCH
FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z
ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIT SUPPORTS A MEAN TROF AXIS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE...DESPITE MODELS BEING OVER ZEALOUS WITH PREVIOUS
COASTAL/OCEAN STORMS PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
SO REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...FOR FRI NIGHT LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MA AND RI WITH CATEGORICAL POPS /75% AND
HIGHER/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE. HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
COAST...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A LIGHT RAINFALL.
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY BURST ESPECIALLY BAF-CEF-LWM NORTHWARD INTO MHT EEN.
CONVECTIVE HEATING DRIVEN SHOWERS "POSSIBLE" THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
LATER.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ORH BAF PVD BOS SHIFTS TO CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...OTRW VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR AM...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH COAST LATE
DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS...RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...E SWELL CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW
HAVE NE WIND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WIND SOUTH COAST.
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 150841
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
441 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEREAFTER NO APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH JUST THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SAT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF 4AM THIS MORNING.
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING UPSTATE NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA. ONE NOTED BATCH OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION WAS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR MONTGOMERY NY (KMGJ)...UNDERNEATH THE DIVERGENT LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF AN APPROACHING 250MB JET STREAK. THIS BATCH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST...POSSIBLY REACHING CONNECTICUT
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA AND ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
GIVEN AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SOME FAVORABLE (BUT WEAKENING)
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST H85 THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM 12Z TO 18Z JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SOMEWHAT TRICKY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THU NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY...NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN TRACKS
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN RGEM
REGARDING THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS ITS FEATURES MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLED ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER UNDERCUT POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NW INTERIOR...DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT A VERY MAY LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH +PNA AND A -NAO IN PLACE
THIS PERIOD /ALBEIT WEAK/. WHERE WAS THIS PATTERN DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS? MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW. 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE
AN AMPLIFIED OUTLIER WITH THE 00Z GGEM AND 00Z UKMET OFFERING A MUCH
FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z
ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIT SUPPORTS A MEAN TROF AXIS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE...DESPITE MODELS BEING OVER ZEALOUS WITH PREVIOUS
COASTAL/OCEAN STORMS PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
SO REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...FOR FRI NIGHT LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MA AND RI WITH CATEGORICAL POPS /75% AND
HIGHER/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE. HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
COAST...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A LIGHT RAINFALL.
BY SATURDAY ANY RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND NEXT VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH AS NEXT CANADIAN VORTEX AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA.
CANADIAN VORTEX ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
-23C AT 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY LIFTS NORTH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MON GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. PROBABLY DRY WEATHER TUE AND THEN LOW PROB
OF SHOWERS SOMETIME WED AS NEXT BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
LARGE VORTEX AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM 15Z TO 21Z WEST
TERMINALS AND 19Z TO 00Z EAST TERMINALS. SLIGHT CHANCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS 15Z TO 21Z WEST TERMINALS KBDL-KBAF AND KORH.
TONIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR AM...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH COAST LATE
DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS...RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT THROUGH MON...MARGINAL VFR-MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...E SWELL CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY. NE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT TOWARDS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW
HAVE NE WIND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WIND SOUTH COAST.
SAT...WINDS DIMINISH AS COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEAS. NE SWELLS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA.
SUN...WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE.
MON...WINDS MAY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/STRAUSS
MARINE...NOCERA/STRAUSS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 150230
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY
THE INTERIOR. WET WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN DETROIT MICHIGAN AND CLEVELAND OHIO
AROUND 10 PM THIS EVENING. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
CROSSING UPSTATE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...STRETCHING FURTHER WEST
INTO EASTERN OHIO.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REACHED THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE AND ACTUAL DEWPOINTS RUNNING
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
GIVEN AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SOME FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY 08Z TONIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY DAYBREAK DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
BEST H85 THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM 12Z TO 18Z
THURSDAY JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT REGION OF
AN APPROACHING JET STREAK.
MAINLY FOCUSED CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND
EXTENDED POPS SOUTH INTO CONNECTICUT. DID NOT MAKE CHANGES BEYOND
15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THU...INSTABILITY BURST YIELDS WHATEVER IT CAN...PRIMARILY 10Z-17Z IN
THE FORM OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS... MOSTLY BVY-ORH-BDL NWWD WITH
GENERALLY BEST CHC OF .01 TO .10 AMTS CT RVR WESTWARD. THIS PER
12Z/14 GFS/ECMWF OP RUNS AND SREF POPS. WEAK 500-300MB DIV OF
Q...WEAKENING INSTABILITY BURST OF AN ALREADY WEAK SYSTEM RUNNING
INTO EVEN DRIER AIRMASS COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR 4 PM OR 5 PM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTN
AFTER SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DRY OUT IN THEIR EASTWARD TREK TOWARD THE
ATLC.
THU NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON NE EXTENT AND ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT RAIN
RISK. AS YOU KNOW...MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE UNSTABLE BEYOND 48
HOURS...DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND ATTM...MADE NO CHANGE TO OUR
PREV FCST ONSET TIME THU NIGHT.
12Z GFS ENS ARE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE 12Z EC/UK OP RUNS AND DUE TO
THE TIMING DISCREPANCY...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
APPEARS THE MODEL SUITE BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE CONTINUITY WITH THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON
THE WEAK SIDE AND REMAINING S OF NEW ENGLAND. GFS STILL REMAINED
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THOUGH APPEARS THIS MODEL HAS THE TRACK
PRETTY WELL. THE QUESTION HAS BEEN THE INTENSITY...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE ABOUT 5-10 HPA TOO LOW AS COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND SREF
ENSEMBLE MEANS /TO NAME A FEW/. SO...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF WITH A LITTLE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GFS...MAINLY FOR MOVEMENT.
APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
WITH SOME REACHING INTO S NH...WITH LOWEST CHANCE THERE. HAVE LIKELY
POPS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOME MODELS TRYING TO BRING IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL... BUT WITH LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SHOWN ON MOST OF THE MODEL
SUITE... KEPT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY BELOW 1/2 INCH AT
THIS POINT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST CLOSEST TO THE PASSING LOW.
AS FOR WINDS...MAY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE AS THE LOW PUSHES E OF CAPE
COD LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD HIGHER WINDS.
KEPT TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME REMAINS LOW. MODELS STILL
HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE SURFACE DETAILS AS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THEN SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND FAR
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE TIMING OF
WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
WITH THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE RATHER COOL AND
UNSTABLE...SO EXPECT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF BREAK LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING IS SUSPECT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN.
THURSDAY...A BROKEN DECK OF MAINLY 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT CLOUDS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. INSERTED SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING AT THE BDL/BAF TERMINALS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL ALSO HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS GIVEN THE LATEST NAM AND GFS INDICATE
HIGH RH > 90 PCT IN BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS.
THU NIGHT...VFR BUT THERE COULD BE A REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDS TWD
DAWN FRI S COAST?
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR-IFR IN CEILINGS...RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
SAT THROUGH MON...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH THURSDAY...ENE SWELL ARD 7 FT SLOWLY EASES. SCA FOR SEAS
CONTS ONLY FOR THAT. MINOR CHANGES TO INCREASE SEAS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF ANZ255.
THU NIGHT...WE MAY BE TOTAL WITHOUT A HEADLINE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...STARTING OFF BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT N-NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 25 KT GUSTS AT NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
SAT...GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISHING. SEAS UP TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE. WINDS
SHIFTING OT SW AT NIGHT.
SUN...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH DUE
TO SW FLOW. COULD INCREASE TO 7 FT.
MON...CONTINUED SCA FOR HIGH SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH
SW FLOW.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS 1000 PM
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANK/EVT/STRAUSS 1000PM
MARINE...DRAG/EVT/STRAUSS 1000 PM
| 
