000
FXUS62 KCHS 070149
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS ALOFT. HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS S OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S
OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS TOWARD MID WEEK...THEN WILL STALL OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE NEEDED TO THE TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 07/01Z. FORCING AND
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME SO A DRY FORECAST
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/
DEFORMATION AXIS PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...FEATURING
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SBCAPES AS HIGH AS 2000-2500 J/KG...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED AS THE SEA BREEZE
ADVANCES INLAND...AND WEAK ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...WEAK WIND FIELDS AND HIGH PWATS
MAY SUPPORT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY EVENING.
THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
BECOME CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE IS FORECAST TO GO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK AND WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE TRACK. GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN UNSETTLED SOGGY PATTERN THIS WEEK DUE TO A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS INCREASE
FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND...THIS WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY STRATUS AT KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...SW WINDS MAY SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE
CHARLESTON HARBOR TONIGHT. THEN...AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS
WEST/VARIABLE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY HURRICANE IKE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS BEYOND 10 NM...HIGHEST TOWARD
THE 60 NM BENCHMARK OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS WERE REPORTED AT TYBEE ISLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SPECTRAL DENSITY PLOTS OBTAINED FROM BUOYS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST REVEAL A 14-16 SECOND PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY
HURRICANE IKE. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL AND PERSISTENCE FACTORS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES
SUNDAY. THE ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...PRODUCED MAINLY BY THIS
LONG PERIOD SWELL...MAY THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.

EXTENDED MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL ENHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEABREEZE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 070131
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE HURRICANE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA ATTM WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. WHAT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT ACCOMPANIED THE BOUNDARY
HAS DISSIPATED...SO THE MAIN ALTERATION TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO
REMOVE 1ST PERIOD POPS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED...SO VALLEY FOG
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHER THAN THESE
ADDITIONS/SUBTRACTIONS...NO FURTHER CHANGES OF NOTE WILL BE
NECESSARY.

DRY HI PRES WILL BLD IN FROM THE NW FOR SUNDAY. SO A PRECIP-FREE DAY
WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG MAX TEMPS IS XPCTD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOIST FETCH WILL ALSO BE AIDED AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN USUAL WITH IKE
PASSING SOUTH OF FL. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE THE
ATMOSPHERE WON/T BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE AND CHANCE POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
AGREE THAT A SFC FRONT WILL MORE INTO THE FA ON TUESDAY. WITH LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT MOISTURE POOLING...IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE
UNSTABLE DAY WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA. AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WED...FLOW WILL BECOME NELY ACROSS THE NC
ZONES. THE CAD ONLY LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THE RESULTANT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE
GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE CIRCULATION OF IKE ALSO
STARTS TO COME INTO PLAY ON WED ON THE GFS AS IT STARTS TO TURN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD. IF IKE STAYS FARTHER SOUTH...THE CAD
WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH COULD SERVE TO DRIVE THE
BEST CONVERGENCE AND PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FA ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GFS RUN IS STICKING CLOSE TO THE
06Z SOLN WED NIGHT WITH REGARDS TO TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE. THIS
SCENARIO DIFFERS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER MORE WEIGHT IS GIVEN
THE GFS TRACK GIVEN THE IKE PREFERENCES BY HPC AND NHC. STILL THINK
TC IKE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN GOM BY 12Z THU AND INTENSIFYING BACK
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AFTER LOSING INTENSITY WHILE OVER CUBA. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL PRESENT ITSELF FOR IKE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH
FOR AN ADVANCE ON THE SE STATES. THE ECMWF KEEPS STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE AND ADVANCES IKE TO THE TX SOUTHERN COAST...THE GFS OPENS UP
THE RIDGE FOR IKE TO MOVE NORTH. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE TUE/WED H5 TROF TRAVERSING THE EAST COAST.

WITHOUT GIVING TOO MUCH FORECAST WEIGHT TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
IKE...ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN TO THE NORTHERN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...WHICH IN ITSELF LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A WET WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUED EASTERLY
FLOW...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY IKE...SHOULD GENERATE ISOL/SCT RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOL TS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GA AND NC THU AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY 12Z FRI...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 8 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
CLEAR OUT THE SHORT LIVED WEDGE...BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH BAKED OFF ATL RIDGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF IKE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GOM. SO...POPS WERE BUMPED UP ABOUT 10 PERCENT INTO THE 40
RANGE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE FROPA REDUCING
POPS...ALL BETS ARE OFF AS TO THE INFLUENCE/PLACEMENT OF IKE AND HIS
INTERACTION WITH THE THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THU IN CLOUDY WEDGE CONFIG AND NE/LY WINDS...AND MAXES
FRI AND SAT WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS WITH INCREASED
INSOLATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE ONLY EFFECT
FROM THIS WILL BE SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE...MAINLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FOG THREAT LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KAVL.
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING TO A FAIRLY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THERE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...
SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER VISBY/CIGS TO 1SM/002 BY 09Z.
ELSEWHERE...VISBY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE 5-6SM RANGE JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO FAIR
WEATHER CU DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ISOLD/SCT TSTMS MONDAY. TSTMS CHANCES INCR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 062342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS ALOFT. HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS S OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S
OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS TOWARD MID WEEK...THEN WILL STALL OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT A TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS THAT STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES IF THE UPSTREAM
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF LATE NIGHT FOG
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/
DEFORMATION AXIS PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...FEATURING
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SBCAPES AS HIGH AS 2000-2500 J/KG...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED AS THE SEA BREEZE
ADVANCES INLAND...AND WEAK ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...WEAK WIND FIELDS AND HIGH PWATS
MAY SUPPORT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY EVENING.
THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
BECOME CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE IS FORECAST TO GO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK AND WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE TRACK. GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN UNSETTLED SOGGY PATTERN THIS WEEK DUE TO A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS INCREASE
FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND...THIS WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY STRATUS AT KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...SW WINDS MAY SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE
CHARLESTON HARBOR TONIGHT. THEN...AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS
WEST/VARIABLE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY HURRICANE IKE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS BEYOND 10 NM...HIGHEST TOWARD
THE 60 NM BENCHMARK OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS WERE REPORTED AT TYBEE ISLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SPECTRAL DENSITY PLOTS OBTAINED FROM BUOYS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST REVEAL A 14-16 SECOND PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY
HURRICANE IKE. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL AND PERSISTENCE FACTORS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES
SUNDAY. THE ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...PRODUCED MAINLY BY THIS
LONG PERIOD SWELL...MAY THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.

EXTENDED MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL ENHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEABREEZE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 062335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE HURRICANE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD L/W TROF EXTENDING ACRS THE ENTIRE CONUS. HENCE...OUR AREA
WILL BE UNDER WSW FLOW THRU THE NEAR TERM. A WK SFC BNDRY WAS
ANALYZED ACRS THE MTNS...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHWRS WERE DEVELOPING OVR NERN TN PER
RADAR...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE NRN MTNS. OTR SHWRS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL/SWRN MTNS BEFORE SUNSET.

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLD CVR...AS TRENDS ON SAT/OBS
INDICATES PERHAPS THICKER CLDS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. A BLEND OF
MOS FOR MIN TEMPS IS WARMER THAN PREV FCST...AND THAT LINES UP WITH
THE TREND IN CLD CVR. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S MTNS
AND MID TO UPR 60S ON THE PIEDMONT.

DRY HI PRES WILL BLD IN FROM THE NW FOR SUNDAY. SO A PRECIP-FREE DAY
WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG MAX TEMPS IS XPCTD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOIST FETCH WILL ALSO BE AIDED AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN USUAL WITH IKE
PASSING SOUTH OF FL. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE THE
ATMOSPHERE WON/T BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE AND CHANCE POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
AGREE THAT A SFC FRONT WILL MORE INTO THE FA ON TUESDAY. WITH LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT MOISTURE POOLING...IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE
UNSTABLE DAY WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA. AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WED...FLOW WILL BECOME NELY ACROSS THE NC
ZONES. THE CAD ONLY LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THE RESULTANT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE
GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE CIRCULATION OF IKE ALSO
STARTS TO COME INTO PLAY ON WED ON THE GFS AS IT STARTS TO TURN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD. IF IKE STAYS FARTHER SOUTH...THE CAD
WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH COULD SERVE TO DRIVE THE
BEST CONVERGENCE AND PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FA ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GFS RUN IS STICKING CLOSE TO THE
06Z SOLN WED NIGHT WITH REGARDS TO TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE. THIS
SCENARIO DIFFERS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER MORE WEIGHT IS GIVEN
THE GFS TRACK GIVEN THE IKE PREFERENCES BY HPC AND NHC. STILL THINK
TC IKE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN GOM BY 12Z THU AND INTENSIFYING BACK
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AFTER LOSING INTENSITY WHILE OVER CUBA. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL PRESENT ITSELF FOR IKE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH
FOR AN ADVANCE ON THE SE STATES. THE ECMWF KEEPS STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE AND ADVANCES IKE TO THE TX SOUTHERN COAST...THE GFS OPENS UP
THE RIDGE FOR IKE TO MOVE NORTH. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE TUE/WED H5 TROF TRAVERSING THE EAST COAST.

WITHOUT GIVING TOO MUCH FORECAST WEIGHT TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
IKE...ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN TO THE NORTHERN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...WHICH IN ITSELF LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A WET WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUED EASTERLY
FLOW...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY IKE...SHOULD GENERATE ISOL/SCT RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOL TS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GA AND NC THU AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY 12Z FRI...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 8 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
CLEAR OUT THE SHORT LIVED WEDGE...BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH BAKED OFF ATL RIDGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF IKE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GOM. SO...POPS WERE BUMPED UP ABOUT 10 PERCENT INTO THE 40
RANGE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE FROPA REDUCING
POPS...ALL BETS ARE OFF AS TO THE INFLUENCE/PLACEMENT OF IKE AND HIS
INTERACTION WITH THE THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THU IN CLOUDY WEDGE CONFIG AND NE/LY WINDS...AND
MAXES FRI AND SAT WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS WITH INCREASED
INSOLATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE ONLY EFFECT
FROM THIS WILL BE SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE...MAINLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FOG THREAT LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KAVL.
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING TO A FAIRLY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THERE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...
SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER VISBY/CIGS TO 1SM/002 BY 09Z.
ELSEWHERE...VISBY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE 5-6SM RANGE JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO FAIR
WEATHER CU DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ISOLD/SCT TSTMS MONDAY. TSTMS CHANCES INCR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 062331
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EDT SAT SEP  6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF HANNA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY. A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MID WEST OVERNIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
OUR AREA. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HURRICANE IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A
CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE`S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES.
MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS (ECMWF)
SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO
KEEP IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.. OTHER MODELS (GFS) SHOW IKE
TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSER TO
ECMWF WITH IKE CONTINUING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW
LEVEL FLOW BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THEREFORE HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL
STORM HANNA WHICH IS NOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL JUST KEEP SOME SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MENTIONED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
PATCHY MORNING FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE IN
CASE IT AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OR BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 061937
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF HANNA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY. A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MID WEST OVERNIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
OUR AREA. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HURRICANE IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A
CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE`S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES.
MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS (ECMWF)
SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO
KEEP IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.. OTHER MODELS (GFS) SHOW IKE
TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSER TO
ECMWF WITH IKE CONTINUING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW
LEVEL FLOW BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THEREFORE HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM
HANNA CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WITH WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUING TO DECREASE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
00Z...THEN SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
AFTER 00Z WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MP

000
FXUS62 KCHS 061913
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
313 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS ALOFT. HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS S OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S
OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS TOWARD MID WEEK...THEN WILL STALL OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT A TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS THAT STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES IF THE UPSTREAM
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF LATE NIGHT FOG
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/
DEFORMATION AXIS PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...FEATURING
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SBCAPES AS HIGH AS 2000-2500 J/KG...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED AS THE SEA BREEZE
ADVANCES INLAND...AND WEAK ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...WEAK WIND FIELDS AND HIGH PWATS
MAY SUPPORT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY EVENING.
THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
BECOME CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE IS FORECAST TO GO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK AND WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE TRACK. GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN UNSETTLED SOGGY PATTERN THIS WEEK DUE TO A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS INCREASE
FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND...THIS WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MAY ONLY PUSH THROUGH KCHS LATE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT KCHS...WHERE HANNA PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...BRIEF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THEN...AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY NOT BECOME FACTORS BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY...THUS DID NOT INCLUDE
A WINS SHIFT/CBS WITHIN THE LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...SW WINDS MAY SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE
CHARLESTON HARBOR TONIGHT. THEN...AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS
WEST/VARIABLE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY HURRICANE IKE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS BEYOND 10 NM...HIGHEST TOWARD
THE 60 NM BENCHMARK OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS WERE REPORTED AT TYBEE ISLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SPECTRAL DENSITY PLOTS OBTAINED FROM BUOYS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST REVEAL A 14-16 SECOND PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY
HURRICANE IKE. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL AND PERSISTENCE FACTORS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES
SUNDAY. THE ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...PRODUCED MAINLY BY THIS
LONG PERIOD SWELL...MAY THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.

EXTENDED MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL ENHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEABREEZE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 061845
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE HURRICANE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD L/W TROF EXTENDING ACRS THE ENTIRE CONUS. HENCE...OUR AREA
WILL BE UNDER WSW FLOW THRU THE NEAR TERM. A WK SFC BNDRY WAS
ANALYZED ACRS THE MTNS...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHWRS WERE DEVELOPING OVR NERN TN PER
RADAR...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE NRN MTNS. OTR SHWRS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL/SWRN MTNS BEFORE SUNSET.

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLD CVR...AS TRENDS ON SAT/OBS
INDICATES PERHAPS THICKER CLDS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. A BLEND OF
MOS FOR MIN TEMPS IS WARMER THAN PREV FCST...AND THAT LINES UP WITH
THE TREND IN CLD CVR. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S MTNS
AND MID TO UPR 60S ON THE PIEDMONT.

DRY HI PRES WILL BLD IN FROM THE NW FOR SUNDAY. SO A PRECIP-FREE DAY
WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG MAX TEMPS IS XPCTD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOIST FETCH WILL ALSO BE AIDED AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN USUAL WITH IKE
PASSING SOUTH OF FL. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE THE
ATMOSPHERE WON/T BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE AND CHANCE POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
AGREE THAT A SFC FRONT WILL MORE INTO THE FA ON TUESDAY. WITH LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT MOISTURE POOLING...IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE
UNSTABLE DAY WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA. AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WED...FLOW WILL BECOME NELY ACROSS THE NC
ZONES. THE CAD ONLY LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THE RESULTANT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE
GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE CIRCULATION OF IKE ALSO
STARTS TO COME INTO PLAY ON WED ON THE GFS AS IT STARTS TO TURN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD. IF IKE STAYS FARTHER SOUTH...THE CAD
WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH COULD SERVE TO DRIVE THE
BEST CONVERGENCE AND PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FA ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GFS RUN IS STICKING CLOSE TO THE
06Z SOLN WED NIGHT WITH REGARDS TO TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE. THIS
SCENARIO DIFFERS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER MORE WEIGHT IS GIVEN
THE GFS TRACK GIVEN THE IKE PREFERENCES BY HPC AND NHC. STILL THINK
TC IKE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN GOM BY 12Z THU AND INTENSIFYING BACK
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AFTER LOSING INTENSITY WHILE OVER CUBA. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL PRESENT ITSELF FOR IKE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH
FOR AN ADVANCE ON THE SE STATES. THE ECMWF KEEPS STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE AND ADVANCES IKE TO THE TX SOUTHERN COAST...THE GFS OPENS UP
THE RIDGE FOR IKE TO MOVE NORTH. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE TUE/WED H5 TROF TRAVERSING THE EAST COAST.

WITHOUT GIVING TOO MUCH FORECAST WEIGHT TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
IKE...ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN TO THE NORTHERN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...WHICH IN ITSELF LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A WET WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUED EASTERLY
FLOW...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY IKE...SHOULD GENERATE ISOL/SCT RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOL TS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GA AND NC THU AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY 12Z FRI...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 8 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
CLEAR OUT THE SHORT LIVED WEDGE...BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH BAKED OFF ATL RIDGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF IKE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GOM. SO...POPS WERE BUMPED UP ABOUT 10 PERCENT INTO THE 40
RANGE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE FROPA REDUCING
POPS...ALL BETS ARE OFF AS TO THE INFLUENCE/PLACEMENT OF IKE AND HIS
INTERACTION WITH THE THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THU IN CLOUDY WEDGE CONGFIG AND NE/LY WINDS...AND MAXES
FRI AND SAT WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS WITH INCREASED
INSOLATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH IT. NWLY WNDS
MAY HAVE A FEW GUSTS AT KAVL AND KHKY BEFORE SUBSIDING ARND SUNSET.
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIFR VSBY AND CIGS IN FOG AT KAVL. HWVR...GIVEN
THE LINGERING CLD CVR...I DID NOT GO ANY MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MVFR
VSBY. VFR CONDS AND LGT WNDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...ISOLD/SCT TSTMS MONDAY. TSTMS CHANCES INCR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...ARK

000
FXUS62 KCAE 061751
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS DIMINISHING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT ABOVE
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATION. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH EXPECTED. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN LOCALES AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS. UPDATE OUT MOMENTARILY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL
BEGINNING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH BASIN
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE IKE...CHECK THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM
HANNA CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WITH WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUING TO DECREASE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
00Z...THEN SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
AFTER 00Z WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 061746
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE
HURRICANE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM AND DRY AFTN IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...AS TS HANNA MOVES
INTO VA. NWLY...DOWNSLOPING WNDS AND CONVERGENT UPR FLOW WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (EXCEPT ALONG THE TN BORDER WHERE CLDS ASSOC
W/ A WK BNDRY WILL CONT). GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF CAPE IN THE MTNS...AS WK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU. I DON/T SEE ANY
REASON TO REMOVE THE SLGT CHC FOR SOME SHWRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW WK MID
LVL LAPSES RATES...SO THUNDER IS UNLIKELY WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE
MTNS...TO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S ACRS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

UNDER A NON-DESCRIPT WSW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING TO
NOSE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SHORT RANGE THIS MORNING. OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES
AND ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME WEAK SHEAR ZONES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. THEN HEIGHTS FALL MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING
WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING HANNA ON SUNDAY AND
REMAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. THIS BRINGS IN QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
COOLING MID LEVELS. NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER WAVE AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO DEVELOP OUT OF
NOWHERE. AGREE THAT PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH...
SO HAVE ISOLATED POP MOST AREAS WITH CHC POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
ISOLATED POP CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE NORTH. BOTH MODELS SHOW IKE MOVING TO THE WESTERN GULF AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN...MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED...BUT THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE DOES MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THU. THE GOOD MOISTURE DOES RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR
TREND. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP TUE AND WED...SLIGHT CHC THU AND
BACK TO CHC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOW A COOLING TREND TUE THRU THU
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THU. TEMPS WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH IT. NWLY WNDS
MAY HAVE A FEW GUSTS AT KAVL AND KHKY BEFORE SUBSIDING ARND SUNSET.
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIFR VSBY AND CIGS IN FOG AT KAVL. HWVR...GIVEN
THE LINGERING CLD CVR...I DID NOT GO ANY MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MVFR
VSBY. VFR CONDS AND LGT WNDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...ISOLD/SCT TSTMS MONDAY. TSTMS CHANCES INCR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK

000
FXUS62 KCHS 061738
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
138 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA...QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY....A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THIS WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS ALOFT. TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS S OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
S OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TOWARD MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALOFT...A BROAD ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE REGION BETWEEN
THE RAPIDLY EJECTING HANNA AND THE WWD TRACK OF IKE. A RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE AND PWATS INCREASE
TOWARD 2 INCHES WITH THIS MOIST AXIS SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE. VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THIS MORNING
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT 70-73 AND HIGHS SUNDAY NOT FAR
FROM 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IKE REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND THAT. FOR OUR REGION...GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF
WAS A BIT DRIER. THE LATEST GEM MODEL SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MIDWEEK QPF AND MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. SOME TRENDS SUGGEST THAT IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES
SIMILAR TO THE GFS/GEM...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. WE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT TUE THROUGH THU AS A TREND.
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MAY ONLY PUSH THROUGH KCHS LATE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT KCHS...WHERE HANNA PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...BRIEF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THEN...AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY NOT BECOME FACTORS BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY...THUS DID NOT INCLUDE
A WINS SHIFT/CBS WITHIN THE LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE BACK CONTROL OF THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE SURGE AND LATE
NIGHT/MORNING LULL AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS PATTERN. DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS/SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...RESIDUAL 3-4 FT SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF ABOUT 11
SECONDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 061456
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE
HURRICANE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM AND DRY AFTN IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...AS TS HANNA MOVES
INTO VA. NWLY...DOWNSLOPING WNDS AND CONVERGENT UPR FLOW WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (EXCEPT ALONG THE TN BORDER WHERE CLDS ASSOC
W/ A WK BNDRY WILL CONT). GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF CAPE IN THE MTNS...AS WK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU. I DON/T SEE ANY
REASON TO REMOVE THE SLGT CHC FOR SOME SHWRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW WK MID
LVL LAPSES RATES...SO THUNDER IS UNLIKELY WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE
MTNS...TO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S ACRS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

UNDER A NON-DESCRIPT WSW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING TO
NOSE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SHORT RANGE THIS MORNING. OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES
AND ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME WEAK SHEAR ZONES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. THEN HEIGHTS FALL MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING
WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING HANNA ON SUNDAY AND
REMAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. THIS BRINGS IN QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
COOLING MID LEVELS. NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER WAVE AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO DEVELOP OUT OF
NOWHERE. AGREE THAT PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH...
SO HAVE ISOLATED POP MOST AREAS WITH CHC POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
ISOLATED POP CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE NORTH. BOTH MODELS SHOW IKE MOVING TO THE WESTERN GULF AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN...MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED...BUT THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE DOES MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THU. THE GOOD MOISTURE DOES RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR
TREND. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP TUE AND WED...SLIGHT CHC THU AND
BACK TO CHC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOW A COOLING TREND TUE THRU THU
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THU. TEMPS WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM CONCERNS ARE LIMITED TO LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS AT
KCLT...WHICH SHOULD BE VFR BY 15-16Z. THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS
AT KCLT AFTER SUNRISE...AS MIXING COMMENCES. OTHERWISE...DIMINISHING
HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA AS HANNA PULLS OFF TO THE NE.
VFR LVL CU WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON
TAP FOR THE EVENING. DEVELOPING BR...PERHAPS MVFR ON AVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...STILL EXPECTING DRY WX ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON TSTMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. DAILY TSTM CHANCES REMAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK/CSH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 061352
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
952 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA...QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY....A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THIS WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS ALOFT. TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS S OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
S OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TOWARD MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE WAKE OF HANNA...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ON THE BACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
QUICKLY RISE LATER TODAY AND LOWER T90S A GOOD BET TODAY. DUE TO
MORNING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALOFT...A BROAD ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE REGION BETWEEN
THE RAPIDLY EJECTING HANNA AND THE WWD TRACK OF IKE. A RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE AND PWATS INCREASE
TOWARD 2 INCHES WITH THIS MOIST AXIS SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE. VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THIS MORNING
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT 70-73 AND HIGHS SUNDAY NOT FAR
FROM 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IKE REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND THAT. FOR OUR REGION...GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF
WAS A BIT DRIER. THE LATEST GEM MODEL SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MIDWEEK QPF AND MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. SOME TRENDS SUGGEST THAT IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES
SIMILAR TO THE GFS/GEM...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. WE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT TUE THROUGH THU AS A TREND.
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AT SAV OR CHS DEPENDING UPON WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS IN
THE WAKE OF HANNA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SATURDAY MORNING...HANNA CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE SLACKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRANSLATED TO
RAPID IMPROVEMENT ACROSS MARINE AREAS. BUOY AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS
INDICATED THAT SEAS HAD SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 6 FEET...AND WINDS
HAD DECREASED BELOW 25 KNOTS. THUS...DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE BACK CONTROL OF THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE SURGE AND LATE
NIGHT/MORNING LULL AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS PATTERN. DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS/SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...RESIDUAL 3-4 FT SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF ABOUT 11
SECONDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 061352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
952 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS DIMINISHING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT ABOVE
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATION. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH EXPECTED. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN LOCALES AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS. UPDATE OUT MOMENTARILY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL
BEGINNING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH BASIN
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE IKE...CHECK THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA OVER EASTERN NC AT 11Z...AND MOVING
RAPIDLY NE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH
DIMINISHING WIND.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE IN
CASE IT AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OR BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS62 KCAE 061139
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE TROPICAL STORM HANNA.
THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND THEN
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HANNA IS MOVING AWAY FROM CWA. WINDS ARE DECREASING AND RAINFALL
IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER
WINDS AND POPS. ALSO CANCELLED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MIDLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF CSRA. IT STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS LANCASTER,
CHESTERFIELD, FAIRFIELD, KERSHAW, AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM.
EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT THAT TIME FOR THE
REMAINING  COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HANNA CURRENTLY MAKING LAND FALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. AS HANNA MOVES AWAY FROM THE
CWA...CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY. PEE
DEE REGION WILL ENCOUNTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING
POPS BY NOON...AND THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THE CWA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL JUST GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
8AM THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...WITH HANNA MOVING AWAY FROM
AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING...THUS ALLOWING
WINDS TO BEGIN DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
GONE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM BIAS IT HAS HAD THE PAST
FEW DAYS. STAYED CLOSER TO MET NUMBERS. CLEARING SKIES AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL
BEGINNING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH BASIN
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE IKE...CHECK THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA OVER EASTERN NC AT 11Z...AND MOVING
RAPIDLY NE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH
DIMINISHING WIND.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE IN
CASE IT AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OR BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 061136
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND PROVIDES DRY
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WHILE IKE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PIVOT POINT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF HANNA/S PCPN SHIELD LOOKS TO
BE OVER LANCASTER CO WITH STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS OF CATEGORICAL
CVRG OVERSPREADING OUR FFA AREA. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE GREATER
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES SPREAD WESTWARD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE TIME
THAT THESE RATES COULD BE OVER THE WATCH AREA IS NARROWING...
SINCE HANNA/S CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
EASTWARD CWFA FROM 12 UTC ONWARD. ANYWAY...HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT
ENUF PCPN WILL FALL TO RESULT IN ANY FLOODING BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND OF HEAVY SHOWERS MAKING INROADS ACRS KEQY...AND
TOWARD KCLT/KJQF/KRUQ...BEST TO LEAVE WATCH UP FOR NOW...TRIMMING
BACK IF NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGHER LVL CLOUD
SHIELD...BISECTING THE CWFA...WILL LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE PULLING OFF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY AS HANNA
MOVES FROM ERN NC INTO VA. SENSIBLE WX FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
THREAT ACRS THE MTNS AS WEAK SFC FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
UNDER A NON-DESCRIPT WSW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SHORT RANGE THIS MORNING. OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES
AND ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME WEAK SHEAR ZONES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. THEN HEIGHTS FALL MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING
WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING HANNA ON SUNDAY AND
REMAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. THIS BRINGS IN QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
COOLING MID LEVELS. NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER WAVE AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO DEVELOP OUT OF
NOWHERE. AGREE THAT PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH...
SO HAVE ISOLATED POP MOST AREAS WITH CHC POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
ISOLATED POP CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE NORTH. BOTH MODELS SHOW IKE MOVING TO THE WESTERN GULF AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN...MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED...BUT THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE DOES MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THU. THE GOOD MOISTURE DOES RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR
TREND. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP TUE AND WED...SLIGHT CHC THU AND
BACK TO CHC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOW A COOLING TREND TUE THRU THU
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THU. TEMPS WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM CONCERNS ARE LIMITED TO LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS AT
KCLT...WHICH SHOULD BE VFR BY 15-16Z. THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS
AT KCLT AFTER SUNRISE...AS MIXING COMMENCES. OTHERWISE...DIMINISHING
HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA AS HANNA PULLS OFF TO THE NE.
VFR LVL CU WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON
TAP FOR THE EVENING. DEVELOPING BR...PERHAPS MVFR ON AVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...STILL EXPECTING DRY WX ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON TSTMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. DAILY TSTM CHANCES REMAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ071-072-
     082.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ037-057-072.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ009-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK/CSH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 061127
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
727 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WELL N OF THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THIS WEEKEND WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS ALOFT. TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS S OF
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS S OVER GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS TOWARD MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE WAKE OF HANNA...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SE GEORGIA SHOULD START THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING ON TAP FOR
OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES AROUND CHARLESTON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE
BACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE
LATER TODAY AND LOWER T90S A GOOD BET TODAY. TIMING THE CLEARING
OF THE CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY...WE RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT TODAY BUT
WENT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALOFT...A BROAD ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE REGION BETWEEN
THE RAPIDLY EJECTING HANNA AND THE WWD TRACK OF IKE. A RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE AND PWATS INCREASE
TOWARD 2 INCHES WITH THIS MOIST AXIS SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE. VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THIS MORNING
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT 70-73 AND HIGHS SUNDAY NOT FAR
FROM 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IKE REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND THAT. FOR OUR REGION...GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF
WAS A BIT DRIER. THE LATEST GEM MODEL SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MIDWEEK QPF AND MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. SOME TRENDS SUGGEST THAT IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES
SIMILAR TO THE GFS/GEM...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. WE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT TUE THROUGH THU AS A TREND.
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER AT CHS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
BEFORE GOING VFR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS APPROACHING SAV
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. WILL CARRY VFR
CONDITIONS AT SAV THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SAV OR CHS DEPENDING UPON WHETHER ENOUGH
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WAKE OF HANNA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HANNA HAS FINALLY BEEN PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND
ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. NOW THAT WINDS HAVE GONE WESTERLY AT ALL MARINE
LOCATIONS...SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING. SOME RESIDUAL SWELL WILL MAINTAIN 6 FT SEAS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE RAPIDLY
DOWNWARD DUE TO THE SHORT WESTERLY FETCH SEVERELY LIMITING WIND
WAVE GROWTH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL ALL BE DROPPED WITH
THIS PACKAGE. PLAN TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SC
NEARSHORE WATERS AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS. 6 FT SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE
ACROSS SC NEARSHORE WATERS BY NOON WITH THE REMAINING AREAS
DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE BACK CONTROL OF THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE SURGE AND LATE
NIGHT/MORNING LULL AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS PATTERN. DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS/SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...RESIDUAL 3-4 FT SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF ABOUT 11
SECONDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 061121
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
721 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE TROPICAL STORM HANNA.
THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND THEN
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HANNA IS MOVING AWAY FROM CWA. WINDS ARE DECREASING AND RAINFALL
IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER
WINDS AND POPS. ALSO CANCELLED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MIDLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF CSRA. IT STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS LANCASTER,
CHESTERFIELD, FAIRFIELD, KERSHAW, AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM.
EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT THAT TIME FOR THE
REMAINING  COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HANNA CURRENTLY MAKING LAND FALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. AS HANNA MOVES AWAY FROM THE
CWA...CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY. PEE
DEE REGION WILL ENCOUNTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING
POPS BY NOON...AND THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THE CWA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL JUST GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
8AM THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...WITH HANNA MOVING AWAY FROM
AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING...THUS ALLOWING
WINDS TO BEGIN DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
GONE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM BIAS IT HAS HAD THE PAST
FEW DAYS. STAYED CLOSER TO MET NUMBERS. CLEARING SKIES AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL
BEGINNING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH BASIN
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE IKE...CHECK THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA OVER EASTERN NC AT 11Z...AND MOVING
RAPIDLY NE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH
DIMINISHING WIND.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE IN
CASE IT AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OR BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     021-022-029.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 060945
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
545 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE TROPICAL STORM HANNA.
THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND THEN
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HANNA IS MOVING AWAY FROM CWA. WINDS ARE DECREASING AND RAINFALL
IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER
WINDS AND POPS. ALSO CANCELLED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MIDLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF CSRA. IT STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS LANCASTER,
CHESTERFIELD, FAIRFIELD, KERSHAW, AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM.
EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT THAT TIME FOR THE
REMAINING  COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HANNA CURRENTLY MAKING LAND FALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. AS HANNA MOVES AWAY FROM THE
CWA...CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY. PEE
DEE REGION WILL ENCOUNTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING
POPS BY NOON...AND THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THE CWA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL JUST GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
8AM THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...WITH HANNA MOVING AWAY FROM
AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING...THUS ALLOWING
WINDS TO BEGIN DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
GONE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM BIAS IT HAS HAD THE PAST
FEW DAYS. STAYED CLOSER TO MET NUMBERS. CLEARING SKIES AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL
BEGINNING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH BASIN
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE IKE...CHECK THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SC/NC
BORDER AT 07Z...AND MOVING TO THE NNE AT AROUND 20 KTS. LATEST
OBS AT OUR TAF SITES SHOWING MVFR CIGS. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE
PROJECTING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MAIN RAIN AREA
REMAINING JUST EAST OF CAE/CUB/OGB...AND WITH WINDS BACKING FROM
NORTH TO W/NW OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR...WILL NOT
INCLUDE IFR CIGS IN OUR TAFS. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH IMPROVEMENT AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE IN
CASE IT AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OR BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     021-022-029.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 060858
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
458 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WELL N OF THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THIS WEEKEND WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS ALOFT. TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS S OF
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS S OVER GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS TOWARD MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE WAKE OF HANNA...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SE GEORGIA SHOULD START THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING ON TAP FOR
OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES AROUND CHARLESTON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE
BACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE
LATER TODAY AND LOWER T90S A GOOD BET TODAY. TIMING THE CLEARING
OF THE CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY...WE RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT TODAY BUT
WENT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALOFT...A BROAD ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE REGION BETWEEN
THE RAPIDLY EJECTING HANNA AND THE WWD TRACK OF IKE. A RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE AND PWATS INCREASE
TOWARD 2 INCHES WITH THIS MOIST AXIS SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE. VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THIS MORNING
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT 70-73 AND HIGHS SUNDAY NOT FAR
FROM 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IKE REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND THAT. FOR OUR REGION...GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF
WAS A BIT DRIER. THE LATEST GEM MODEL SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MIDWEEK QPF AND MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. SOME TRENDS SUGGEST THAT IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES
SIMILAR TO THE GFS/GEM...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. WE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT TUE THROUGH THU AS A TREND.
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AT KCHS HAVE ENDED AND VSBYS WERE NOW
VFR. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SAV COULD SEE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK BUT PREVAILING SHOULD BE MVFR. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN FROM THE W...CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BY
MID-MORNING. REMNANT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR CHS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HANNA HAS FINALLY BEEN PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND
ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. NOW THAT WINDS HAVE GONE WESTERLY AT ALL MARINE
LOCATIONS...SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING. SOME RESIDUAL SWELL WILL MAINTAIN 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE RAPIDLY DOWNWARD DUE TO THE
SHORT WESTERLY FETCH SEVERELY LIMITING WIND WAVE GROWTH. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL ALL BE DROPPED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PLAN
TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE HARBOR. 6
FT SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS S OF EDISTO BY NOON
WITH THE REMAINING AREAS DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE BACK CONTROL OF THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE SURGE AND LATE
NIGHT/MORNING LULL AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS PATTERN. DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS/SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...RESIDUAL 3-4 FT SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF ABOUT 11
SECONDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KGSP 060804
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND PROVIDES DRY
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WHILE IKE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PIVOT POINT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF HANNA/S PCPN SHIELD LOOKS TO
BE OVER LANCASTER CO WITH STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS OF CATEGORICAL
CVRG OVERSPREADING OUR FFA AREA. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE GREATER
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES SPREAD WESTWARD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE TIME
THAT THESE RATES COULD BE OVER THE WATCH AREA IS NARROWING...
SINCE HANNA/S CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
EASTWARD CWFA FROM 12 UTC ONWARD. ANYWAY...HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT
ENUF PCPN WILL FALL TO RESULT IN ANY FLOODING BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND OF HEAVY SHOWERS MAKING INROADS ACRS KEQY...AND
TOWARD KCLT/KJQF/KRUQ...BEST TO LEAVE WATCH UP FOR NOW...TRIMMING
BACK IF NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGHER LVL CLOUD
SHIELD...BISECTING THE CWFA...WILL LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE PULLING OFF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY AS HANNA
MOVES FROM ERN NC INTO VA. SENSIBLE WX FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
THREAT ACRS THE MTNS AS WEAK SFC FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
UNDER A NON-DESCRIPT WSW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SHORT RANGE THIS MORNING. OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES
AND ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME WEAK SHEAR ZONES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. THEN HEIGHTS FALL MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING
WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING HANNA ON SUNDAY AND
REMAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. THIS BRINGS IN QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
COOLING MID LEVELS. NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER WAVE AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO DEVELOP OUT OF
NOWHERE. AGREE THAT PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH...
SO HAVE ISOLATED POP MOST AREAS WITH CHC POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
ISOLATED POP CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE NORTH. BOTH MODELS SHOW IKE MOVING TO THE WESTERN GULF AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN...MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED...BUT THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE DOES MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THU. THE GOOD MOISTURE DOES RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR
TREND. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP TUE AND WED...SLIGHT CHC THU AND
BACK TO CHC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOW A COOLING TREND TUE THRU THU
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THU. TEMPS WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIKELY TO SEE
IFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. PCPN
SHIELD NW OF HANNA ADVANCING...AND PROBABLY WILL SEE REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY FROM PCPN...PERHAPS OCNLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHAPING UP
TO BE JUST A CIG CONCERN AT KHKY WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR.
ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE VFR LVL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE. LARGE SCALE CLEARING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE EFFECTS OF HANNA DIMINISH LEADING TO MAINLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX XPCTD ON SUNDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNING FOR MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ071-072-
     082.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ037-057-071-072-
     082.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ009-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CSH

000
FXUS62 KGSP 060738
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND PROVIDES DRY
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WHILE IKE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PIVOT POINT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF HANNA/S PCPN SHIELD LOOKS TO
BE OVER LANCASTER CO WITH STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS OF CATEGORICAL
CVRG OVERSPREADING OUR FFA AREA. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE GREATER
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES SPREAD WESTWARD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE TIME
THAT THESE RATES COULD BE OVER THE WATCH AREA IS NARROWING...
SINCE HANNA/S CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
EASTWARD CWFA FROM 12 UTC ONWARD. ANYWAY...HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT
ENUF PCPN WILL FALL TO RESULT IN ANY FLOODING BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND OF HEAVY SHOWERS MAKING INROADS ACRS KEQY...AND
TOWARD KCLT/KJQF/KRUQ...BEST TO LEAVE WATCH UP FOR NOW...TRIMMING
BACK IF NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGHER LVL CLOUD
SHIELD...BISECTING THE CWFA...WILL LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE PULLING OFF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY AS HANNA
MOVES FROM ERN NC INTO VA. SENSIBLE WX FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
THREAT ACRS THE MTNS AS WEAK SFC FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
UNDER A NON-DESCRIPT WSW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SHORT RANGE THIS MORNING. OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES
AND ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME WEAK SHEAR ZONES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. THEN HEIGHTS FALL MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING
WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING HANNA ON SUNDAY AND
REMAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. THIS BRINGS IN QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
COOLING MID LEVELS. NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER WAVE AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO DEVELOP OUT OF
NOWHERE. AGREE THAT PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH...
SO HAVE ISOLATED POP MOST AREAS WITH CHC POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
ISOLATED POP CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE NORTH. BOTH MODELS SHOW IKE MOVING TO THE WESTERN GULF AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN...MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED...BUT THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE DOES MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THU. THE GOOD MOISTURE DOES RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR
TREND. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP TUE AND WED...SLIGHT CHC THU AND
BACK TO CHC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOW A COOLING TREND TUE THRU THU
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THU. TEMPS WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIKELY TO SEE
IFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. PCPN
SHIELD NW OF HANNA ADVANCING...AND PROBABLY WILL SEE REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY FROM PCPN...PERHAPS OCNLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHAPING UP
TO BE JUST A CIG CONCERN AT KHKY WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR.
ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE VFR LVL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE. LARGE SCALE CLEARING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE EFFECTS OF HANNA DIMINISH LEADING TO MAINLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX XPCTD ON SUNDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNING FOR MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ071-072-
     082.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ037-057-071-
     072-082.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ009-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CSH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 060656
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
256 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY N THROUGH THE
EXTREME EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID-ATLC
STATES. A LOW PRES TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
AREA INTO MON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO TRACK RATHER QUICKLY ON A N
TRACK NEARING A LANDFALL NEAR THE CAROLINA STATE BORDER NOT FAR
FROM N MYRTLE BEACH. OUR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH /INCLUDING CHARLESTON COUNTY/. THE HURRICANE WATCH
WHICH WAS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH HAS ALSO BEEN CANCELLED.

WHILE THE WINDS HAVE NOT POSED MUCH OF AN ISSUE TO THE AREA...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
REGION TODAY. LIGHT RAIN ON THE SW FLANK OF HANNA WAS ENDING N OF
CHARLESTON AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED.

WE LOWERED POPS FURTHER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SHOW DIMINISHING
SURFACE WINDS ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR BERKELEY COUNTY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE MOULTRIE UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT WITH RAINS DIMINISHING AND
WINDS SUBSIDING FROM S TO N PRIOR TO DAWN. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW KICKS
IN. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WARMEST
ACROSS INLAND SE GA WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS AROUND 70 MOST LOCALES...COOLEST
WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID SUMMER TYPE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MANY
AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

TUE THROUGH FRI...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP HURRICANE IKE S OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IKE TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SHOULD KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE AFTN/EVE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE RAINS FROM HANNA SHIFT NE OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
VISIBILITIES AT CHS SHOULD IMPROVE. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SAV COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT PREVAILING SHOULD BE
MVFR. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE W...CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BY MID-MORNING. REMNANT CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR CHS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HANNA PULLS AWAY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND WILL STEADILY DIMINISH...AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THEN...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LONG PERIOD
SWELL EMANATING FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THE COASTAL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS SOME SWELL ACTION CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD RETURN TO PREDICTED...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW PREDICTED VALUES...OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE
IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ050.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 060643
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
243 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE TROPICAL STORM HANNA.
THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND THEN
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HANNA CURRENTLY MAKING LAND FALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SC/NC
BORDER THIS MORNING. TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE STORM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS THIS
MORNING. AS HANNA MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA...CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY. PEE DEE REGION WILL ENCOUNTER
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING POPS BY NOON...AND THEN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THE
CWA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL DROP THE WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL
JUST GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 8AM THIS MORNING. AFTER
THAT TIME...WITH HANNA MOVING AWAY FROM AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO BEGIN DECREASING
ACROSS THE LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE GONE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE WARM BIAS IT HAS HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. STAYED CLOSER TO
MET NUMBERS. CLEARING SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL
BEGINNING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH BASIN
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE IKE...CHECK THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SC/NC
BORDER AT 07Z...AND MOVING TO THE NNE AT AROUND 20 KTS. LATEST
OBS AT OUR TAF SITES SHOWING MVFR CIGS. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE
PROJECTING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MAIN RAIN AREA
REMAINING JUST EAST OF CAE/CUB/OGB...AND WITH WINDS BACKING FROM
NORTH TO W/NW OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR...WILL NOT
INCLUDE IFR CIGS IN OUR TAFS. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH IMPROVEMENT AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE IN
CASE IT AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OR BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     020>022-026>031-035>038-041.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 060547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NE OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
TS HANNA OFFSHORE NEAR MYR-ILM CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM SC MIDLANDS. JUST DROPPED TORNADO
WATCH FOR THE AREA. SO WILL ISSUE QUICK ZONE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL BE TRACKING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE MOST OF THE
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EXTREME EAST PART
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST APPEAR ON TRACK. STRONG SHEAR AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SUPPORTS SOME THREAT
OF TORNADOES IN THE EAST PART OVERNIGHT. H85 WINDS WERE NEAR 35
KNOTS AND SOME OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIR NEAR THE COAST MAY MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HANNA WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY. SUBSIDENCE
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF OF HANNA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH
BASIN TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE AND WAS LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A DEGREE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

CHECK THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER/S LATEST FORECAST FOR
HURRICANE IKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SE OF CAE
AT 05Z...AND MOVING TO THE NNE AT AROUND 20 KTS. LATEST OBS AT OUR
TAF SITES SHOWING MVFR CIGS. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE PROJECTING IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MAIN RAIN AREA REMAINING JUST
EAST OF CAE/CUB/OGB...AND WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTH TO W/NW
OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CIGS
IN OUR TAFS. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
IMPROVEMENT AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE IN
CASE IT AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OR BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-
     020>022-026>028-030-035-041.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-029-031-
     036>038.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS62 KCHS 060541
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH THROUGH
THE EXTREME EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
AREA INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE
BAHAMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO TRACK RATHER QUICKLY ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK EAST OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AS OF
MIDNIGHT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS WELL DEPICTED BY THE KCLX
RADAR AT ABOUT 60 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
HAS STILL MANAGED TO MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT ITS THIS BETTER ORGANIZATION WHICH TOOK
PLACE DURING THE EVENING WHICH HELPED TO CONTRACT THE WIND FIELD
TOWARD THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND HANNA...HAS KEPT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. WIND
FIELDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN MORE IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH...WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS OF 51 KNOTS AT THE U.S. NAVY TOWER R2
/ELEVATION 50 METERS/...41 KNOTS AT EDISTO BUOY AND 39 KNOTS AT
GRAYS REEF BUOY. GIVEN THE OBSERVED WINDS AND THE SOON TO BE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
/INCLUDING CHARLESTON COUNTY/. THE HURRICANE WATCH WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH HAS ALSO BEEN CANCELLED.

WHILE THE WINDS HAVE NOT POSED MUCH OF AN ISSUE TO THE
AREA...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HANNA HAVE BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. SOME OF THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS
RECEIVED SO FAR INCLUDE...4.07 INCHES IN HUGER...3.31 INCHES AT
THE CHARLESTON INTL AIRPORT...3.23 INCHES IN MCCLELLANVILLE AND
2.90 INCHES IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. MANY ROADWAYS ARE FLOODED AND
IMPASSABLE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN COLLETON AND BEAUFORT
COUNTIES WHERE THE RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF.

THE TORNADO THREAT HAS ENDED AS THE GREATEST WIND SHEAR HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF HANNA. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

LAKE WINDS...SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR BERKELEY COUNTY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE MOULTRIE UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT WITH RAINS DIMINISHING AND
WINDS SUBSIDING FROM S TO N PRIOR TO DAWN. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW KICKS
IN. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WARMEST
ACROSS INLAND SE GA WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS AROUND 70 MOST LOCALES...COOLEST
WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID SUMMER TYPE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MANY
AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

TUE THROUGH FRI...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP HURRICANE IKE S OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IKE TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SHOULD KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE AFTN/EVE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE RAINS FROM HANNA SHIFT NE OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
VISIBILITIES AT CHS SHOULD IMPROVE. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SAV COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT PREVAILING SHOULD BE
MVFR. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE W...CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BY MID-MORNING. REMNANT CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR CHS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HANNA PULLS AWAY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND WILL STEADILY DIMINISH...AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THEN...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LONG PERIOD
SWELL EMANATING FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THE COASTAL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS SOME SWELL ACTION CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD RETURN TO PREDICTED...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW PREDICTED VALUES...OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE
IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ050.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ044-045-
     050.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 060523
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
123 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NE OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL BE TRACKING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE MOST OF THE BANDS OF
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EXTREME EAST PART WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST APPEAR ON TRACK. STRONG SHEAR AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SUPPORTS SOME THREAT
OF TORNADOES IN THE EAST PART OVERNIGHT. H85 WINDS WERE NEAR 35
KNOTS AND SOME OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIR NEAR THE COAST MAY MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HANNA WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY. SUBSIDENCE
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF OF HANNA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH
BASIN TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE AND WAS LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A DEGREE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

CHECK THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER/S LATEST FORECAST FOR
HURRICANE IKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SE OF CAE
AT 05Z...AND MOVING TO THE NNE AT AROUND 20 KTS. LATEST OBS AT OUR
TAF SITES SHOWING MVFR CIGS. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE PROJECTING IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MAIN RAIN AREA REMAINING JUST
EAST OF CAE/CUB/OGB...AND WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTH TO W/NW
OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CIGS
IN OUR TAFS. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
IMPROVEMENT AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE STATUS OF HURRICANE IKE IN
CASE IT AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OR BEYOND.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-
     020>022-026>028-030-035-041.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-029-031-
     036>038.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 060445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1245 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND PROVIDES DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  HURRICANE IKE WILL BE THE NEXT
CONCERN AS IT MAY CROSS FLORIDA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS BRING
RAIN TO OUR REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE/RE NOT PLANNING TO MAKE MANY CHANGES OF NOTE TO THE FORECAST
ATTM. NOW THAT LANDFALL IS IMMINENT...T.S. HANNA APPEARS TO BE
GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER QUITE NICELY...AS A BURST OF INTENSE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN BANDS ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE IN DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR INLAND
THESE RAIN BANDS WILL TRACK. THE 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP...WITH THE NAM DEPICTING THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER...AND THE
GFS PAINTING THE HEAVIEST QPF MORE OR LESS ALONG THE TRACK.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...I
TEND TO THINK THE NAM MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN IS A RATHER TALL ORDER ATTM. THE ONLY CHANGE OF
SIGNIFICANCE THAT I WILL MAKE IS TO REMOVE IREDELL COUNTY FROM THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BASED ON AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THIS
AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE LITTLE-TO-NO RAINFALL THAN IT IS TO
SEE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...HANNA SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE WEST LAST
NIGHT UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT PERSISTED TO WEST OF THE
CENTER. JUST RECENTLY ANOTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND HAS ALSO BEGIN
TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OVERALL THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR
TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE PURELY TROPICAL.
WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SYSTEM...THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AT LEAST THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
MOISTENING WITH TIME.

WITH THE SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE CHANCES OF A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA HAVE INCREASED. ATTM A
DEFORMATION ZONE IS ALREADY SETTING UP ALONG A LINE FROM ABOUT
COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA. THE BAND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST...AND IT VERY WELL
MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
FA. SO WHETHER THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA GETS A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 3 INCHES WILL BE A MATTER OF ONLY A FEW MILES.
THAT/S MUCH TOO CLOSE TO CALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL THERE...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I-77
CORRIDOR FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE NAM IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
HANNA. THIS IS INTERESTING AS IT DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLY HEAVIER
AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN FA. THE MODEL IS ALMOST CERTAINLY OFF
IN IT/S WESTWARD TRACK OF HANNA...BUT IT DOES HAVE A STRONGER
CYCLONE...WHICH MAKES ME THINK IT MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. OVERALL I
FOLLOWED MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT I/M STILL ABOUT 6 HRS SLOWER
WITH THE BACK END OF THE HANNA PCPN SHIELD.

SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE MID LEVELS WILL BE VERY WARM IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL CAPE IS NON-EXISTENT. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY MAKE IT UP TO AROUND 90 OWING TO A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
WARM LLVL THICKNESSES. THE AIRMASS BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ON
MONDAY WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG THE LEE SLOPES AND
SOME COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT. THEREFORE I/VE ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. BETTER CHANCES YET FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE STILL ISN/T MUCH FORCING...SO I
HAVE POPS CLAWING THEIR WAY UP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING NEW YORK STATE
AND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST IN A CLASSIC COOL AIR WEDGE
CONFIGURATION.  ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WE SEE A MOIST FETCH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  THEREFORE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN.  THIS WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN AT LEAST A BIT AND BEGIN A
POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD IF HURRICANE IKE FOLLOWS SUITE FROM THE SOUTH.

BEGINNING WITH THE TIME OF 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE POSITION THAT THE 12Z
GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE ON IKE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR.  THE GFS HAS A
SOMEWHAT WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH PENINSULA.  THE
EC HAS A STRONG HURRICANE CENTERED WEST OF KEY WEST.  AFTER THAT
TIME IS WHEN THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE.  THE GFS TAKES IKE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST REACHING A POINT 200 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY
MID DAY FRIDAY.  THEREFORE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THE ONLY RAIN WE
COULD EXPECT WOULD BE FROM THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM TENNESSEE
WHICH WOULD ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...THE EC
WHICH FOR TWO RUNS NOW HAS IKE CONTINUING NORTHWEST FROM THE KEYS
AREA AND REACHING LOUISIANA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
ACCORDING TO THIS SOLUTION...IKE WOULD GET CAUGHT UP ON THE
ADVANCING FRONT AND WE WOULD GET BOTH FRONTAL AND TROPICAL RAIN A
WEEK FROM NOW GOING INTO THAT WEEKEND.  THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS A TRACK GOING BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH AT THE
CURRENT TIME SEEMS VERY REASONABLE.  ACCORDING TO THIS AVERAGE...THE
CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIKELY TO SEE
IFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. PCPN
SHIELD NW OF HANNA ADVANCING...AND PROBABLY WILL SEE REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY FROM PCPN...PERHAPS OCNLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHAPING UP
TO BE JUST A CIG CONCERN AT KHKY WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR.
ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE VFR LVL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE. LARGE SCALE CLEARING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE EFFECTS OF HANNA DIMINISH LEADING TO MAINLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX XPCTD ON SUNDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNING FOR MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ071-072-082.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ037-057-071-
     072-082.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ009-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CSH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 060442
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1242 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TOWARD
A LANDFALL ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.
ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS OF
HANNA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO TRACK RATHER QUICKLY ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK EAST OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AS OF
MIDNIGHT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS WELL DEPICTED BY THE KCLX
RADAR AT ABOUT 60 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
HAS STILL MANAGED TO MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT ITS THIS BETTER ORGANIZATION WHICH TOOK
PLACE DURING THE EVENING WHICH HELPED TO CONTRACT THE WIND FIELD
TOWARD THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND HANNA...HAS KEPT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. WIND
FIELDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN MORE IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH...WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS OF 51 KNOTS AT THE U.S. NAVY TOWER R2
/ELEVATION 50 METERS/...41 KNOTS AT EDISTO BUOY AND 39 KNOTS AT
GREYS REEF BUOY. GIVEN THE OBSERVED WINDS AND THE SOON TO BE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
/INCLUDING CHARLESTON COUNTY/. THE HURRICANE WATCH WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH HAS ALSO BEEN CANCELLED.

WHILE THE WINDS HAVE NOT POSED MUCH OF AN ISSUE TO THE
AREA...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HANNA HAVE BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. SOME OF THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS
RECEIVED SO FAR INCLUDE...4.07 INCHES IN HUGER...3.31 INCHES AT
THE CHARLESTON INTL AIRPORT...3.23 INCHES IN MCCLELLANVILLE AND
2.90 INCHES IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. MANY ROADWAYS ARE FLOODED AND
IMPASSABLE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN COLLETON AND BEAUFORT
COUNTIES WHERE THE RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF.

THE TORNADO THREAT HAS ENDED AS THE GREATEST WIND SHEAR HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF HANNA. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

LAKE WINDS...SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR BERKELEY COUNTY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
LAKE MOULTRIE UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT WITH RAINS DIMINISHING AND
WINDS SUBSIDING FROM S TO N PRIOR TO DAWN. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW KICKS
IN. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WARMEST
ACROSS INLAND SE GA WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS AROUND 70 MOST LOCALES...COOLEST
WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID SUMMER TYPE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MANY
AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

TUE THROUGH FRI...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP HURRICANE IKE S OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IKE TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SHOULD KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE AFTN/EVE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER KCHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERIST AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
/AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AT KCHS/.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HANNA PULLS AWAY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND WILL STEADILY DIMINISH...AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THEN...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LONG PERIOD
SWELL EMANATING FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THE COASTAL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS SOME SWELL ACTION CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD RETURN TO PREDICTED...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW PREDICTED VALUES...OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE
IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ050.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ045.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ044-045-050.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

JAQ

000
FXUS62 KCHS 060205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1005 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. ALL ARE
URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS OF HANNA FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. LOW PRES TROUGHING WILL THEN PERSIST
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IKE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE
BAHAMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS HAVE REMAINED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH
PEAK GUSTS OF 51 KNOTS AT THE 50 METER NAVY TOWER R2...39 KNOTS AT GRAYS
REEF BUOY AND 33 KNOTS AT EDISTO BUOY. WINDS OVER LAND HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONTRACTING WIND
FIELD AROUND HANNA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT
THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER ALL TROPICAL AND
HURRICANE RELATED WATCHES AND WARNING WILL REMAIN PLACE...AT LEAST
UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM WHEN SOME CHANGES COULD TAKE PLACE.

PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS FROM HANNA CONTINUE TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL
RECEIVED SO FAR IS 2.97 INCHES AT THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A RESULT. WHILE THE BANDING COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST
NOT RECEIVING MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN AT ALL TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN SCALED BACK TO ONLY INCLUDE THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...AND
THIS PORTION COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF CURRENT
TRENDS PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT WITH RAINS DIMINISHING AND
WINDS SUBSIDING FROM S TO N PRIOR TO DAWN. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW KICKS
IN. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WARMEST
ACROSS INLAND SE GA WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS AROUND 70 MOST LOCALES...COOLEST
WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID SUMMER TYPE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MANY
AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

TUE THROUGH FRI...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP HURRICANE IKE S OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IKE TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SHOULD KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE AFTN/EVE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KCHS. VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
KCHS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
ALONG WITH THE RADAR TRENDS AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MORE INFORMATION REGARDING EXPECTED TO
CONDITIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOLLOWING THE 11 PM ADVISORY FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

AS HANNA PULLS AWAY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND WILL STEADILY DIMINISH...AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THEN...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LONG PERIOD
SWELL EMANATING FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THE COASTAL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

RIP CURRENTS...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE DUE TO LARGE
     LONG-PERIOD SWELL. RISK MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY AS
SOME SWELL CONTINUE AND THE WIND BECOMES ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WERE AVERAGING AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL/EXPECTED
LEVELS. AS HANNA ADVANCES THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM TIDE DEPARTURES WILL AVERAGE AS HIGH
AS AROUND 2 FEET ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND MOST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL ACROSS
CHARLESTON CO