000
FXUS63 KUNR 080219
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
819 PM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH BEST 700-600MB FRONTOGENISIS.
DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH HAS KEPT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008/

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS NERN
WY...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. RAIN
COVERAGE IS INCREASING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASED SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK INTERACTIONS BETWEEN ONE
STREAK DEPARTING SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS KEEPING DIURNAL
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOTUH DAKOTA IN CHECK WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SAME AREA AROUND 06Z. THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ZONES...AND ALSO
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND NW SD THIS EVENING. THE LOW DEWPOINTS
AND COOLING TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM IN LOW
LYING AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN. THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH
SOME RAIN LIKELY LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO AROUND
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER.

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY WITH
OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK AT LEAST SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TARGET TO CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN
PLACE FOR THE PASSAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LAGGING UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND WHERE IT WILL ULTIMATELY GO. HAVE DECIDED TO
GENERALLY LEAVE FORECAST AS IS FOR THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH JUST MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS...WIND...ETC.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KFSD 080213
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
915 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
00Z HAND 700MB ANLYS SHOWS STG MID LVL CONVERGENCE AND THERMAL
BOUNDARY ALG NE/SD BORDER PRODUCING DVLPG RAIN BAND THAT WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS SRN CWA TNGT. SO HIT QPF HARDER IN FAR SRN CWA REST OF
NGT. SHARP CUTOFF EXPCD ALG AND NORTH OF I90...WITH DRIER NWLY
FLOW...SO CUT BACK CHCS RAIN AND QPF THERE. TEMPS ALSO SLOWER TO
FALL WITH CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS LGT BUT MORE WLY THAN FCST...BUT BCMG
MORE NLY AFT MIDN. HAVE UPDATED GRID PRODUCTS THIS EVE...BUT ZFP
ACTUALLY STILL IN THE BALLPARK OVERALL. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE
SIOUX FALLS AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SRN PART OF TOWN AWAY FROM
THE AIRPORT.

RYRHOLM

&&

.AVIATION...
GNLY VFR EXPCTD I90 AND N INCLUDG FSD/HON...THO BRF MVFR CIGS ARND
3K FT CUD DVLP ARND 08/12Z. FRTHR S...INCRG RAIN CVRG WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS UP TO ABOUT 18Z...THO AT THIS TIME DONT
EXPCT THESE CONDS TO BCM WDSPRD. RAIN SHUD DCRS BY 08/18Z.

WILLIAMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THIS BOUNDARY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL
JET TO THE SOUTH DRAWS MOISTURE AND WARM AIR NORTHWARD COLLIDING
WITH COOL AIR ATTEMPTING TO WORK SOUTH.

STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
LEAVING THE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER NEXT
18-24 HOURS PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A PRECIPITATION
EVENT. SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS OF 20Z IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN OVERNIGHT.  STRONG 750-700 MB FRONTAL
BAND HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHERN CWA. THIS IS EASILY
SEEN IN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THOUGH ALL RETURNS ARE LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.  BECAUSE
OF THE THIS DRY AIR...WILL NEED TO SATURATE FROM ALOFT BEFORE ECHOS
ARE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS...MAY SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH CUTTING
OFF THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY TO SOME DEGREE.  REGARDLESS...STILL THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SEE SOME DECENT COOL RAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA. THE DRY AIR FETCH FROM THE
NORTH WILL PROVIDE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90. GIVEN THE DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S
UPSTREAM...HAVE LOWERED LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT DID
NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

BY MONDAY MORNING..THE STRONG 750-800MB LLJ VEERING MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
WOULD THINK THAT SOME OF THOSE AREAS COULD SEE A HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WITH SOME PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT IN THE FORM OF 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -22 DEGREES
C...WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST IOWA DIE OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THEN EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH A VERY WEST GROUND...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR FOG. PRETTY CHILLY TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 35 TO 40 IN THE EAST AND
40 TO 45 IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WIND...MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND MILD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUDS
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 40S IN
NORTHWEST IA.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SPREADS NORTHWEST.
IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO PRODUCE A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(THU-SUN)...LOOKING LIKE A VERY BUSY WEATHER
PATTERN WITH DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS WEAK TROFING IN THE WEST WHICH
SENDS OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON JUST WHEN TO PUSH THE MAIN TROF
ONTO THE PLAINS AND WITH A POTENTIAL HURRICANE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MUCH IS UP IN THE AIR.
SO...FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER 6Z GFS/0Z ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SO...WITH THE MEN
ALREADY HINTING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES...COMING IN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MEX EVEN THOUGH THE MEX IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...AND A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY WILL LOWER HIGHS INTO MAINLY THE
60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL SD. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY
BUT WILL NOT BE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOT LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 080156 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
856 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED.
TEMPERATURES ARE GONNA BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUD-DEPENDENT WITH
WINDS DROPPING TO NEXT TO NOTHING AS THIS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SITS RIGHT DOWN ON TOP OF THE CWA. UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT FROM EMBEDDED
S/W IN NW FLOW SHOULD ALL SUFFICE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE MID 30S. UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SHOULD SUFFICE
TONIGHT...SO WILL BE LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST.
STRONGEST FORCING AND THICKEST CLOUDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ALONG
OR SOUTH OF I-90 OVERNIGHT...SO CONTINUING THE INHERITED WX/POPS
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH
OF PIERRE.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISO SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM I-90 AND POINTS SOUTH.
THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT AND LEFT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. EXPECTING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE SO FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS WEST.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH THE UPCOMING
MID WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES HAVE CROPPED
UP. HAVE DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT MAKE AS
FEW CHANGES AS POSSIBLE UNTIL MODELS SETTLE DOWN ON A SOLUTION.  THE
PERIOD OPENS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. AN H5 TROUGH ALOFT DIGS
SOUTH FROM CANADA AND COMES INTO PHASE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA. BY 00Z FRIDAY THEY MOVE THE NORTHERN TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION AND KEEP A CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST IN A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME. BY 00Z SATURDAY THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW AND MOVES IT INTO THE ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THE
GFS CONTINUES THE SPLIT FLOW CUT OFF SCENARIO. BY 00Z SUNDAY THE
GFS WEAKENS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES IT EAST. THE ECMWF
HAS ALREADY PASSED THE TROUGH THROUGH THIS AREA. THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE BOTH VERY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY AND DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. ENSEMBLE SOLUTION DOES
NOT SHED MUCH LIGHT ON A SOLUTION BUT SERVES TO POINT OUT THE
UNCERTAINTY.GOING GRIDS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OLD SOLUTION WELL AND
WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD WITH THE CURRENT ITERATION. WILL NOT
MAKE MANY CHANGES UNTIL FURTHER RUNS SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON POSITIONS OF FEATURES SO
WILL NOT PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER TOWARD NEXT WEEK END. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO IS NOT AS BULLISH ON WARM TEMPERATURES AS
YESTERDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. THESE WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE KPIR TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH TOMORROW
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3500 FT AGL AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 072041
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
241 PM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS NERN
WY...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. RAIN
COVERAGE IS INCREASING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASED SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK INTERACTIONS BETWEEN ONE
STREAK DEPARTING SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS KEEPING DIURNAL
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOTUH DAKOTA IN CHECK WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SAME AREA AROUND 06Z. THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ZONES...AND ALSO
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND NW SD THIS EVENING. THE LOW DEWPOINTS
AND COOLING TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM IN LOW
LYING AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN. THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH
SOME RAIN LIKELY LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO AROUND
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER.

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY WITH
OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK AT LEAST SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TARGET TO CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN
PLACE FOR THE PASSAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LAGGING UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND WHERE IT WILL ULTIMATELY GO. HAVE DECIDED TO
GENERALLY LEAVE FORECAST AS IS FOR THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH JUST MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS...WIND...ETC.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WY...SOUTHERN SD...AND NEB. A
MORE STEADIER RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN SD THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 072025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISO SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM I-90 AND POINTS SOUTH.
THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT AND LEFT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. EXPECTING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE SO FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS WEST.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH THE UPCOMING
MID WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES HAVE CROPPED
UP. HAVE DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT MAKE AS
FEW CHANGES AS POSSIBLE UNTIL MODELS SETTLE DOWN ON A SOLUTION.
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. AN H5 TROUGH ALOFT
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND COMES INTO PHASE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BY 00Z FRIDAY THEY MOVE THE NORTHERN TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION AND KEEP A CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST IN A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME. BY 00Z SATURDAY THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW AND MOVES IT INTO THE ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THE
GFS CONTINUES THE SPLIT FLOW CUT OFF SCENARIO. BY 00Z SUNDAY THE
GFS WEAKENS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES IT EAST. THE ECMWF
HAS ALREADY PASSED THE TROUGH THROUGH THIS AREA. THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE BOTH VERY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY AND DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. ENSEMBLE SOLUTION DOES NOT SHED
MUCH LIGHT ON A SOLUTION BUT SERVES TO POINT OUT THE
UNCERTAINTY.GOING GRIDS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OLD SOLUTION WELL AND
WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD WITH THE CURRENT ITERATION. WILL NOT
MAKE MANY CHANGES UNTIL FURTHER RUNS SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON POSITIONS OF FEATURES SO
WILL NOT PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER TOWARD NEXT WEEK END. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO IS NOT AS BULLISH ON WARM TEMPERATURES AS YESTERDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. THESE WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THESE CLOUDS
ARE BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT AGL. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. THROUGH TOMORROW EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE 3500 FT AGL AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 071949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THIS BOUNDARY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL
JET TO THE SOUTH DRAWS MOISTURE AND WARM AIR NORTHWARD COLLIDING
WITH COOL AIR ATTEMPTING TO WORK SOUTH.

STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
LEAVING THE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER NEXT
18-24 HOURS PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A PRECIPITATION
EVENT. SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS OF 20Z IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN OVERNIGHT.  STRONG 750-700 MB FRONTAL
BAND HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHERN CWA. THIS IS EASILY
SEEN IN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THOUGH ALL RETURNS ARE LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.  BECAUSE
OF THE THIS DRY AIR...WILL NEED TO SATURATE FROM ALOFT BEFORE ECHOS
ARE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS...MAY SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH CUTTING
OFF THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY TO SOME DEGREE.  REGARDLESS...STILL THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SEE SOME DECENT COOL RAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA. THE DRY AIR FETCH FROM THE
NORTH WILL PROVIDE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90. GIVEN THE DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S
UPSTREAM...HAVE LOWERED LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT DID
NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

BY MONDAY MORNING..THE STRONG 750-800MB LLJ VEERING MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
WOULD THINK THAT SOME OF THOSE AREAS COULD SEE A HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WITH SOME PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT IN THE FORM OF 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -22 DEGREES
C...WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST IOWA DIE OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THEN EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH A VERY WEST GROUND...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR FOG. PRETTY CHILLY TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 35 TO 40 IN THE EAST AND
40 TO 45 IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WIND...MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND MILD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUDS
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 40S IN
NORTHWEST IA.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SPREADS NORTHWEST.
IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO PRODUCE A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(THU-SUN)...LOOKING LIKE A VERY BUSY WEATHER
PATTERN WITH DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS WEAK TROFING IN THE WEST WHICH
SENDS OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON JUST WHEN TO PUSH THE MAIN TROF
ONTO THE PLAINS AND WITH A POTENTIAL HURRICANE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MUCH IS UP IN THE AIR.
SO...FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER 6Z GFS/0Z ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SO...WITH THE MEN
ALREADY HINTING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES...COMING IN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MEX EVEN THOUGH THE MEX IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...AND A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY WILL LOWER HIGHS INTO MAINLY THE
60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL SD. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY
BUT WILL NOT BE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOT LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG FRONTAL BAND DEVELOPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.  THIS WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

TEMEYER/08

000
FXUS63 KUNR 071629
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1029 AM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR INAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERY ROTATING AROUND
THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SAT IMAGERY AND
RADAR MOSAIC SHOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
CONFINED TO THE AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 WITH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS LIMITING IT/S NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD PROGRESS NORTH OF
I-90. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN
THIS AFTN AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES THE INSTABILITY. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST THE PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED -SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
CWA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY PROGRESS
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION AROUND AGAIN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE BLACK HILLS WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ZONAL
FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

EXTENDED...SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK...AND DRIFTING EASTWARD AS IT
PHASES BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...OR ANY SOLUTION IS LOW
GIVEN HOW POORLY MODELS HANDLE UPPER LOWS THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 071606 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1106 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY
FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS. INCREASED SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS A WEALTH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH...ACROSS
THE VERY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...COULD SEE THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN JONES COUNTY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS
SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABNORMALLY COOL AS UPPER TROUGH
PERSISTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. SREF H85 ANOMALIES
CONTINUE IN THE -1 TO -2 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE ALONG WITH THE
INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER FROM THE ACTIVE PATTERN COMBINE TO
PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RANGES 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SLIGHTLY LESS ABNORMAL FOR
TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET THAT FORMS IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEEING MUCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HEAD
INTO WESTERN MN WITH BROAD CLOUD FREE AREA UPSTREAM. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO EFFECT REGION IN MONTANA AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP MAJORITY
OF MORNING FORECAST DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH OPTED OUT OF THUNDER AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

NEXT WAVE TO EFFECT REGION PASSES SOUTH OF CWA...WITH POPS LIMITED
TO SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. AGAIN...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE.


.LONG TERM...00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE STILL IN THE EXTENDED IS THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
PASSAGE MID WEEK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN POTENTIAL.

MODELS STILL REMAIN IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN. 00Z
WEDNESDAY STARTS OFF WITH WEAK S/W RIDGING TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA...WITH NEXT 5H SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. THE MODELS ARE
NOW DIGGING THIS SYTEM INTO THE SW PART OF THE CONUS...AND CUTTING
IT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...FRONT STILL PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH UPPER
FLOW NOW PERPINDICULAR TO SFC FLOW...ANTICIPATE THAT THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE IN ITS PASSAGE...WITH DRYING TAKING
PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF AFTN
THURSDAY POPS DUE TO THIS THINKING. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO BLOSTER
DWPTS ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DRAW MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TEMPS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG WAA REGIME...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT TEMP RISE. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SITES. DID
UNDERCUT INHERITED WED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL OPTED FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO FOCUS RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. IN THIS AREA GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE FAR EAST PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA A LAYER OF MVFR CEILINGS EXIST. KATY HAS A SCATTERED
LAYER AT THIS SAME HEIGHT OF 15-18 HUNDRED FEET AGL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 071540
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED THIS MORNING. BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY IF NOT CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS ALL DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF
750-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHER CWA
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.
PLACEMENT OF POPS WAS FAIRLY GOOD IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA IN TONIGHT PERIOD. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MIXING WILL BE REDUCED AND HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. /BT
&&

.AVIATION...
ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FROM ALOFT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90.  LOWER CLOUDS IN THE LOWER END OF THE MFR RANGE TO NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
WEAK S/W GENERATING SCT RW- MAINLY N OF I90 AND E OF JAMES RVR ERLY
THIS MORN. THIS SHUD PUSH EWD ACRS ERN CWA ERLY THIS MORN AND SHUD
BE OUT OF AREA BY 14 OR 15Z. AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS
SW MN AND NW IA SHUD ALSO DISSIPATE ERLY THIS MORN WITH PASSAGE OF
S/W. SHUD SEE A LTL SUN TODAY BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE W
DURING THE AFTN.

FAIRLY STG S/W WL PUSH EWD ACRS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MON WITH STG
MID LEVEL FNTRGEN ALONG AND S OF I90. SHUD SEE A WDSPRD AREA OF RAIN
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND S OF I90 AND SPREAD EWD LATER TONIGHT INTO
MON. WL GO WITH HIGH POPS S OF A 9V9-FSD-MWM LINE ESPEC FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIP MAY HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF FURTHER
N...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO WL KEEP A SMALL POP ACRS
THE FAR N TONIGHT INTO MON. SYS SHUD PULL AWAY MON AFTN AND WL END
RAIN FM WEST TO E ON MON. WDSPRD CLOUDS AND RAIN WL KEEP TEMPS QUITE
COOL ON MON...AND MAY NOT REACH 60 ACRS SERN CWA. EVEN WITH SOME SUN
IN THE AFTN FARTHER W AND NW...STILL WL NOT GET OUT OF 60S. PBLY WL
SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN OF AT LEAST 1/2 INCH S OF I90 TONIGHT THRU
MON MORN. SFC HIGH WL SLIDE SEWD INTO CWA MON NITE AND SHUD BRING
SOME CLEARING. WITH LIGHT WNDS AND MOIST GND...WL LIKELY SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NITE AND TUES MORN...SO DID MENTION IN FCST
ERN CWA.

WARMUP BEGINS TUES BUT DID COOL TEMPS A FEW DEG ERN CWA AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WL BE SELY FM RAIN COOLED AIRMASS. BETTER WARMUP ON WED AHEAD
OF S/W AND CDFNT. MODELS A LTL SLOWER ON THIS FEATURE AND BEST CHC
FOR TRW MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED NITE INTO THU MORN. SO WL TRIM POPS
BACK SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON WED.

LATER PDS WL REMAIN UNCHANGED ALTHO GFS HINTING AT A WET FRI NITE
AND SAT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 070915
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
CWA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY PROGRESS
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION AROUND AGAIN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE BLACK HILLS WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ZONAL
FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

EXTENDED...SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK...AND DRIFTING EASTWARD AS IT
PHASES BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...OR ANY SOLUTION IS LOW
GIVEN HOW POORLY MODELS HANDLE UPPER LOWS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 070903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
CWA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY PROGRESS
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION AROUND AGAIN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE BLACK HILLS WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ZONAL
FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

EXTENDED...SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK...AND DRIFTING EASTWARD AS IT
PHASES BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...OR ANY SOLUTION IS LOW
GIVEN HOW POORLY MODELS HANDLE UPPER LOWS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY FOR THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KFSD 070833
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK S/W GENERATING SCT RW- MAINLY N OF I90 AND E OF JAMES RVR ERLY
THIS MORN. THIS SHUD PUSH EWD ACRS ERN CWA ERLY THIS MORN AND SHUD
BE OUT OF AREA BY 14 OR 15Z. AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS
SW MN AND NW IA SHUD ALSO DISSIPATE ERLY THIS MORN WITH PASSAGE OF
S/W. SHUD SEE A LTL SUN TODAY BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE W
DURING THE AFTN.

FAIRLY STG S/W WL PUSH EWD ACRS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MON WITH STG
MID LEVEL FNTRGEN ALONG AND S OF I90. SHUD SEE A WDSPRD AREA OF RAIN
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND S OF I90 AND SPREAD EWD LATER TONIGHT INTO
MON. WL GO WITH HIGH POPS S OF A 9V9-FSD-MWM LINE ESPEC FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIP MAY HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF FURTHER
N...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO WL KEEP A SMALL POP ACRS
THE FAR N TONIGHT INTO MON. SYS SHUD PULL AWAY MON AFTN AND WL END
RAIN FM WEST TO E ON MON. WDSPRD CLOUDS AND RAIN WL KEEP TEMPS QUITE
COOL ON MON...AND MAY NOT REACH 60 ACRS SERN CWA. EVEN WITH SOME SUN
IN THE AFTN FARTHER W AND NW...STILL WL NOT GET OUT OF 60S. PBLY WL
SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN OF AT LEAST 1/2 INCH S OF I90 TONIGHT THRU
MON MORN. SFC HIGH WL SLIDE SEWD INTO CWA MON NITE AND SHUD BRING
SOME CLEARING. WITH LIGHT WNDS AND MOIST GND...WL LIKELY SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NITE AND TUES MORN...SO DID MENTION IN FCST
ERN CWA.

WARMUP BEGINS TUES BUT DID COOL TEMPS A FEW DEG ERN CWA AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WL BE SELY FM RAIN COOLED AIRMASS. BETTER WARMUP ON WED AHEAD
OF S/W AND CDFNT. MODELS A LTL SLOWER ON THIS FEATURE AND BEST CHC
FOR TRW MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED NITE INTO THU MORN. SO WL TRIM POPS
BACK SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON WED.

LATER PDS WL REMAIN UNCHANGED ALTHO GFS HINTING AT A WET FRI NITE
AND SAT.


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE KFSD AND
KSUX TAF SITES BEFORE 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 070815
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABNORMALLY COOL AS UPPER TROUGH
PERSISTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. SREF H85 ANOMALIES
CONTINUE IN THE -1 TO -2 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE ALONG WITH THE
INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER FROM THE ACTIVE PATTERN COMBINE TO
PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RANGES 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SLIGHTLY LESS ABNORMAL FOR
TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET THAT FORMS IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEEING MUCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HEAD
INTO WESTERN MN WITH BROAD CLOUD FREE AREA UPSTREAM. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO EFFECT REGION IN MONTANA AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP MAJORITY
OF MORNING FORECAST DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH OPTED OUT OF THUNDER AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

NEXT WAVE TO EFFECT REGION PASSES SOUTH OF CWA...WITH POPS LIMITED
TO SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. AGAIN...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE.


.LONG TERM...00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE STILL IN THE EXTENDED IS THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
PASSAGE MID WEEK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN POTENTIAL.

MODELS STILL REMAIN IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN. 00Z
WEDNESDAY STARTS OFF WITH WEAK S/W RIDGING TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA...WITH NEXT 5H SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. THE MODELS ARE
NOW DIGGING THIS SYTEM INTO THE SW PART OF THE CONUS...AND CUTTING
IT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...FRONT STILL PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH UPPER
FLOW NOW PERPINDICULAR TO SFC FLOW...ANTICIPATE THAT THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE IN ITS PASSAGE...WITH DRYING TAKING
PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF AFTN
THURSDAY POPS DUE TO THIS THINKING. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO BLOSTER
DWPTS ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DRAW MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TEMPS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG WAA REGIME...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT TEMP RISE. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SITES. DID
UNDERCUT INHERITED WED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL OPTED FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. VFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES...WITH KATY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. AFT
15Z VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES WITH FEW-SCT100
CLOUDS. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 070142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
842 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. INITIAL
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN TO
THE AREA HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED OUT WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND JACKSON MN AT 830 PM CDT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AFTER THIS FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN SD SWINGS A COLD FRONT ALOFT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS YOU
TRAVEL SOUTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...THROUGH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...LOWERED EVENING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS TEMPERATURES
DID NOT RECOVER MUCH BEHIND AREA OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. IF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH...THIS
THREAT MAY BE MINOR AND CONFINED MAINLY TO LOW SPOTS.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT HON AND
FSD. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT SUX AND FSD LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN SHOWERS BUT COULD FALL TO IFR IN FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
WAVE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND DIE WITH SUNSET. REMAINING SHOWERS TO THE EAST SHOULD BECOME
MORE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH MIDLEVEL WAVE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH 0.05-0.15 OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO
BE IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

STILL VERY BUSY PATTERN THRU THE FCST...WITH MAIN ISSUES HOW FAR
NORTH THE MONDAY SYSTEM GETS AND HOW FAST WED NGT SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE FOR SUN AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES EAST...WITH
MAIN CHC SHRA IN NERN CWA IN THE MRNG...THEN A NICE BREAK FOR THE
AFTN OVER THE CWA. MODELS PRETTY STRONG WITH WAVE FOR SUN NGT AND
MON...BUT GFS TOO FAR NORTH WITH MAIN QPF BOUNDARY AND ALSO A LIT
ON THE FAST SIDE. WENT MORE WITH THE SOUTH BIAS OF THE OTHER
MODELS...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN STILL QUITE PSBL TO THE NORTH...WITH
A COOL RAIN TO THE SOUTH IN THE CWA. CERTAINLY EXPCT MORE FLIP/FLOPS
OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND NEXT FEW RUNS OF THE GFS WILL
MOST LIKELY REVERT TO THE SOUTH. CLRG OUT FM NW TO SE IN CWA FOR MON
NGT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPCD. NICE WARMING WITH SOUTH
WINDS SPRDG EAST OVER THE CWA FOR TUE THRU WED...ALONG WITH EXPCD
RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR LATE TUES NGT THRU WED. SO KEPT THE
POPS GOING FOR SRN CWA LATE TUES NGT AND MAINLY ERN CWA FOR WED AS
LOW LVL SLY JET INTERACTS WITH DYNAMIC WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN
DYNAMICS AND CHCS TSTMS EXCPD WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH AND CDFNT WED
NGT...MOVG OFF TO THE EAST ON THU. MODELS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT
BRINGING RETURN SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR FOR FRI AFTN INTO SAT...AND
WENT WARMER THAN THE PREV FCST CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$
BT/RSR

000
FXUS63 KABR 070106
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
806 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRAS WERE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALREADY
HAVE IN GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN AND WILL STICK WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONGER SMALL LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN SPINK COUNTY. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...HAIL
CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CONCERN WITH DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN
WARNER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS NOTED
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLOSER TO MAIN UPPER WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN
THE GRIDS DURING THIS TIME. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF PRECIP. A GOOD BET THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVES RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
ADDED/INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
PLENTY OF UPGLIDE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE WEDNESDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE DOING PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS AT
LEAST ON THE BROAD SCALE. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH THIS AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST H5 FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL H5 TROUGH IS ROTATING SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AS IT STRENGTHENS AND ABSORBS THE REMNANTS
OF THE WEST COAST LOW. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH FLATTENS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND THIS AREA IS LEFT UNDER ZONAL FLOW. THIS ALSO
INDUCES A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THE
COLD AIR BEHIND IT FROM CENTRAL CANADA HELPS FORM A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH MOSTLY
PACIFIC AIR UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MODERATED
AND HAVE A FLEETING AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
SET OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GOING GRIDS AS THERE WAS
NOTHING IN THE NEW MODEL DATA TO CONTRADICT THE GOING PACKAGE.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THE H5 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES OF TWO OR THREE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE
FINAL PERIOD WHERE CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY MODERATES EXTREMES.



&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT -SHRAS TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CEILINGS OF 4000-7000 FEET. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 062053
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
253 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT ARCING FROM NEAR KBIS TO KRAP TO KGCC.
COMBINATION OF SFC INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING...SFC
BOUNDARY...AND SYNOPTIC LIFT HAS CREATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.  WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHEN THE BEST OMEGA WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT NORTHERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60 AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

EXTENDED...SEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIKELY CLIP THE AREA IN
THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KFSD 062047
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
WAVE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND DIE WITH SUNSET. REMAINING SHOWERS TO THE EAST SHOULD BECOME
MORE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH MIDLEVEL WAVE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH 0.05-0.15 OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO
BE IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

STILL VERY BUSY PATTERN THRU THE FCST...WITH MAIN ISSUES HOW FAR
NORTH THE MONDAY SYSTEM GETS AND HOW FAST WED NGT SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE FOR SUN AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES EAST...WITH
MAIN CHC SHRA IN NERN CWA IN THE MRNG...THEN A NICE BREAK FOR THE
AFTN OVER THE CWA. MODELS PRETTY STRONG WITH WAVE FOR SUN NGT AND
MON...BUT GFS TOO FAR NORTH WITH MAIN QPF BOUNDARY AND ALSO A LIT
ON THE FAST SIDE. WENT MORE WITH THE SOUTH BIAS OF THE OTHER
MODELS...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN STILL QUITE PSBL TO THE NORTH...WITH
A COOL RAIN TO THE SOUTH IN THE CWA. CERTAINLY EXPCT MORE FLIP/FLOPS
OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND NEXT FEW RUNS OF THE GFS WILL
MOST LIKELY REVERT TO THE SOUTH. CLRG OUT FM NW TO SE IN CWA FOR MON
NGT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPCD. NICE WARMING WITH SOUTH
WINDS SPRDG EAST OVER THE CWA FOR TUE THRU WED...ALONG WITH EXPCD
RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR LATE TUES NGT THRU WED. SO KEPT THE
POPS GOING FOR SRN CWA LATE TUES NGT AND MAINLY ERN CWA FOR WED AS
LOW LVL SLY JET INTERACTS WITH DYNAMIC WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN
DYNAMICS AND CHCS TSTMS EXCPD WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH AND CDFNT WED
NGT...MOVG OFF TO THE EAST ON THU. MODELS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT
BRINGING RETURN SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR FOR FRI AFTN INTO SAT...AND
WENT WARMER THAN THE PREV FCST CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOW END VFR TO HIGH
END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LYING STRATUS
MAY PRODUCE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$
BT/RSR

000
FXUS63 KABR 062028
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONGER SMALL LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN SPINK COUNTY. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...HAIL
CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CONCERN WITH DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN
WARNER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS NOTED
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLOSER TO MAIN UPPER WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN
THE GRIDS DURING THIS TIME. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF PRECIP. A GOOD BET THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVES RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
ADDED/INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
PLENTY OF UPGLIDE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE WEDNESDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE DOING PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS AT
LEAST ON THE BROAD SCALE. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH THIS AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST H5 FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL H5 TROUGH IS ROTATING SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AS IT STRENGTHENS AND ABSORBS THE REMNANTS
OF THE WEST COAST LOW. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH FLATTENS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND THIS AREA IS LEFT UNDER ZONAL FLOW. THIS ALSO
INDUCES A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THE
COLD AIR BEHIND IT FROM CENTRAL CANADA HELPS FORM A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH MOSTLY
PACIFIC AIR UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MODERATED
AND HAVE A FLEETING AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
SET OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GOING GRIDS AS THERE WAS
NOTHING IN THE NEW MODEL DATA TO CONTRADICT THE GOING PACKAGE.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THE H5 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES OF TWO OR THREE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE
FINAL PERIOD WHERE CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY MODERATES EXTREMES.


&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE FIRST WAVE IS CAUSING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF THIS AREA ON THE
LATEST WSR-88D RETURNS. KATY MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS A STRONGER WAVE
AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE GOOD VFR
AT THIS TIME AND VISIBILITY IS UNRESTRICTED. THIS EVENING IT WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 061552 RRA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY WITH BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND FOG LINGERING IN NORTHWEST
IOWA.  HAVE RAISED POPS MAINLY WEST OF I 29 THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.  KICR HAS PICKED UP 15 HUNDRETHS OF AN
INCH THUS FAR AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE SIMILAR IN FAR WESTERN CWA.
AS BAND SHIFTS EAST...FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS
FRONTOGENETIC BAND DEVELOPS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.  THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE
BEGUN THE TREND OF RAISING POPS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE LINGERING
FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...ESPECIALLY DOWN NEAR THE SIOUX CITY
AREA.  CLOUD COVER HAMPERING MIXING...SO EXPECT FOG TO GRADUALLY
LIFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS REALLY
LIMITED WARMING...AND HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES.
UPDATED FORECAST POSTED.

&&
.AVIATION...
LINGERING FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY
NEAR SIOUX CITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE RESTRICTED CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT A TROUGH PUSHES EWRD.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG E OF I29 SHUD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORN AS HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVE IN ELIMINATING ANY ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING. FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AS S/W PUSHES EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS.
CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH FEATURE SHUD SPREAD ACRS ALL OF CWA THIS MORN
WITH MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS WL
BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND WL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO NORM. MOST
PLACES SHUD SEE HIGHS FM 65 TO 70...ALTHO A FEW PLACES CUD SEE LOWER
70S. THINK BULK OF RAIN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT WL SPREAD
CHC INTO W AND FAR SRN CWA THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHC OF R
ACRS CWA TONIGHT. CUD BE AN ISOLD TRW BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENLY BE LIGHT...PBLY LESS THAN 0.25 MOST
PLACES. WL SEE SOME LINGERING RW- ACRS ERN CWA SUN MORN...WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS W SPREADING E DURING THE AFTN. STILL WL BE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. YET ANOTHER S/W WL MOVE ACRS NEB LATE
SUN NITE INTO MON AND WL NEED TO KEEP CHC OF RW MAINLY S OF I90 LATE
SUN INTO MON. NOT MUCH IF ANY MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPS ON MON...AND
PBLY WL BE A LTL COOLER S DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MON NITE
SHUD BE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR PATCHY
FROST POT ACRS ERN CWA TUES MORN AS SFC HIGH DROPS INTO IA. WUD
EXPECT LIGHT WNDS AND MOSTLY CLR SKIES BY TUES MORN. SHUD WARM UP
NICELY TUES INTO WED WITH TEMPS BACK INTO 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT CHC OF TRW WED AFTN/NITE AHEAD OF NEXT S/W AND CDFNT.
OF COURSE IT WL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND HOW MUCH LLM
RETURNS AHEAD OF S/W.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 061500 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY
A FEW CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR TODAY. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN HAND/HYDE...BUFFALO AND LYMAN COUNTIES. RAISED POPS QUITE
A BIT IN THIS AREA UP THROUGH 18Z. ALSO LOWERED POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF THIS AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. STILL APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
RADARS ACROSS MONTANA SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO
AFTERNOON POPS APPEAR OK AT THIS TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO
MATCH SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL SEE AN AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
BEFORE CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WAVE AND DEVELOPING CU FIELD MOVE
IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVES IN NE AND MT. THE SHORTWAVE
SITUATED IN NE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THESE HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR SITUATED ACROSS THE
REGION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD COVER. NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS PM...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK/TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR SITUATED ACROSS THE
CWA...PROFILES UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH
THE REENFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE CWA WHILE H85
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LOW...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY MORNING...THE NORTHERN CWA COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID 30S AS SUPPORTED BY LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE BEFORE ADDING FROST TO ZONES
AS SEVERAL INHIBITING FACTORS ARE PRESENT...MAINLY EXTENT OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SHORTWAVE TO SOUTH AND EFFECT OF EXPECTED RAINFALL ON
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE PCPN CHANCES
MID WEEK AND ALONG WITH DWPTS AHEAD OF SYSTEM.

EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER...WEAK S/W RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS WAA RETURNS TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING 5H TROF/SFC LOW FORMING TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINITY AS TO TIMING OF PCPN ONSET DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THAT LEAVING CURRENT 12HR POP/WX GRID IN PLACE FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY SEEMED PRUDENT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROF SHOULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE AREA...SO HAVE BOLSTERED DWPTS A BIT FOR THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASE IN PWATS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
SHONE BY THE GFS MODEL. GFS SHOWS FAIRLY POTENT 7H WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A BIT OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK NOTED. WITH GFS/EC BOTH SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF 7H THETA-E FORCING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AM COMFORTABLE
WITH MODEST CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT PERIOD. ALSO GIVEN THAT THE
GFS IS SHOWING MUCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG...PUTTING THUNDER IN THE
FCST ALSO SEEMED REASONABLE.

TEMP WISE...LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE OVER THE COOLER
MEN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONG WAA PATTERN
AHEAD OF SFC TROF SHOULD HELP TO PROMOTE WARMING.


&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN VFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES. VSBYS WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED AS WELL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. BY 18Z TODAY THIS WAVE
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA TO THE KMBG AND KPIR
TERMINALS...BUT CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IF THEY DO
OCCUR. THE ISOLD/SCT SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE KABR TERMINAL VCNTY
AFT 20Z...AND KATY TERMINAL VCNTY AFT 21Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 061458
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
857 AM MDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF INTO EASTERN SD/NEB. RAIN IS
STILL AFFECTING MAINLY TRIPP CO IN SC SOUTH DAKOTA BUT IT SHOULD BE
MOVING EAST OF THERE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA ATTM WITH MORE
SHOWERS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SHORTWAVES
HAS BROKEN UP THE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN
DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM MONTANA.
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM IS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE
VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -1.0 C.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIP MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z...WHEN THE BEST OMEGA WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60 AND LOWS IN THE
40S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING.

EXTENDED...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRY WX LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY...PERHAPS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 061023
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
425 AM MDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM IS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES
AROUND 100 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -1.0 C.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIP MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z...WHEN THE BEST OMEGA WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60 AND LOWS IN THE
40S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING.

EXTENDED...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRY WX LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED -SHRA IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...PERHAPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 060900
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM IS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES
AROUND 100 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -1.0 C.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIP MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z...WHEN THE BEST OMEGA WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60 AND LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL
DIP BELOW FREEZING.

EXTENDED...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRY WX LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED -SHRA IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...PERHAPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 060858
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
358 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVES IN NE AND MT. THE SHORTWAVE
SITUATED IN NE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THESE HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR SITUATED ACROSS THE
REGION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD COVER.  NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS PM...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK/TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR SITUATED ACROSS THE
CWA...PROFILES UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH
THE REENFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE CWA WHILE H85
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LOW...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY MORNING...THE NORTHERN CWA COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID 30S AS SUPPORTED BY LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE BEFORE ADDING FROST TO ZONES
AS SEVERAL INHIBITING FACTORS ARE PRESENT...MAINLY EXTENT OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SHORTWAVE TO SOUTH AND EFFECT OF EXPECTED RAINFALL ON
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE PCPN CHANCES
MID WEEK AND ALONG WITH DWPTS AHEAD OF SYSTEM.

EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER...WEAK S/W RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS WAA RETURNS TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING 5H TROF/SFC LOW FORMING TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINITY AS TO TIMING OF PCPN ONSET DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THAT LEAVING CURRENT 12HR POP/WX GRID IN PLACE FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY SEEMED PRUDENT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROF SHOULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE AREA...SO HAVE BOLSTERED DWPTS A BIT FOR THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASE IN PWATS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
SHONE BY THE GFS MODEL. GFS SHOWS FAIRLY POTENT 7H WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A BIT OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK NOTED. WITH GFS/EC BOTH SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF 7H THETA-E FORCING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AM COMFORTABLE
WITH MODEST CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT PERIOD. ALSO GIVEN THAT THE
GFS IS SHOWING MUCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG...PUTTING THUNDER IN THE
FCST ALSO SEEMED REASONABLE.

TEMP WISE...LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE OVER THE COOLER
MEN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONG WAA PATTERN
AHEAD OF SFC TROF SHOULD HELP TO PROMOTE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN VFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES. VSBYS WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED AS WELL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. BY 18Z TODAY THIS WAVE
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA TO THE KMBG AND KPIR
TERMINALS...BUT CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IF THEY DO
OCCUR. THE ISOLD/SCT SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE KABR TERMINAL VCNTY
AFT 20Z...AND KATY TERMINAL VCNTY AFT 21Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 060828 RRA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG E OF I29 SHUD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORN AS HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVE IN ELIMINATING ANY ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING. FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AS S/W PUSHES EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS.
CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH FEATURE SHUD SPREAD ACRS ALL OF CWA THIS MORN
WITH MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS WL
BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND WL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO NORM. MOST
PLACES SHUD SEE HIGHS FM 65 TO 70...ALTHO A FEW PLACES CUD SEE LOWER
70S. THINK BULK OF RAIN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT WL SPREAD
CHC INTO W AND FAR SRN CWA THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHC OF R
ACRS CWA TONIGHT. CUD BE AN ISOLD TRW BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENLY BE LIGHT...PBLY LESS THAN 0.25 MOST
PLACES. WL SEE SOME LINGERING RW- ACRS ERN CWA SUN MORN...WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS W SPREADING E DURING THE AFTN. STILL WL BE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. YET ANOTHER S/W WL MOVE ACRS NEB LATE
SUN NITE INTO MON AND WL NEED TO KEEP CHC OF RW MAINLY S OF I90 LATE
SUN INTO MON. NOT MUCH IF ANY MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPS ON MON...AND
PBLY WL BE A LTL COOLER S DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MON NITE
SHUD BE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR PATCHY
FROST POT ACRS ERN CWA TUES MORN AS SFC HIGH DROPS INTO IA. WUD
EXPECT LIGHT WNDS AND MOSTLY CLR SKIES BY TUES MORN. SHUD WARM UP
NICELY TUES INTO WED WITH TEMPS BACK INTO 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT CHC OF TRW WED AFTN/NITE AHEAD OF NEXT S/W AND CDFNT.
OF COURSE IT WL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND HOW MUCH LLM
RETURNS AHEAD OF S/W.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NW IA AND INTO PORTIONS OF SW MN
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RESTRICTED CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT A
TROUGH PUSHES EWRD.

LIEBL

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KFSD 060828
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG E OF I29 SHUD DISSPIATE EARLY THIS MORN AS HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVE IN ELIMINATING ANY ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING. FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AS S/W PUSHES EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS.
CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH FEATURE SHUD SPREAD ACRS ALL OF CWA THIS MORN
WITH MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS WL
BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND WL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO NORM. MOST
PLACES SHUD SEE HIGHS FM 65 TO 70...ALTHO A FEW PLACES CUD SEE LOWER
70S. THINK BULK OF RAIN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT WL SPREAD
CHC INTO W AND FAR SRN CWA THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHC OF R
ACRS CWA TONIGHT. CUD BE AN ISOLD TRW BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENLY BE LIGHT...PBLY LESS THAN 0.25 MOST
PLACES. WL SEE SOME LINGERING RW- ACRS ERN CWA SUN MORN...WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS W SPREADING E DURING THE AFTN. STILL WL BE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. YET ANOTHER S/W WL MOVE ACRS NEB LATE
SUN NITE INTO MON AND WL NEED TO KEEP CHC OF RW MAINLY S OF I90 LATE
SUN INTO MON. NOT MUCH IF ANY MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPS ON MON...AND
PBLY WL BE A LTL COOLER S DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MON NITE
SHUD BE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR PATCHY
FROST POT ACRS ERN CWA TUES MORN AS SFC HIGH DROPS INTO IA. WUD
EXPECT LIGHT WNDS AND MOSTLY CLR SKIES BY TUES MORN. SHUD WARM UP
NICELY TUES INTO WED WITH TEMPS BACK INTO 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT CHC OF TRW WED AFTN/NITE AHEAD OF NEXT S/W AND CDFNT.
OF COURSE IT WL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND HOW MUCH LLM
RETURNS AHEAD OF S/W.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NW IA AND INTO PORTIONS OF SW MN
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RESTRICTED CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT A
TROUGH PUSHES EWRD.

LIEBL

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$