[top]
000
FXUS64 KMEG 110728
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
228 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AN H5 RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE MID SOUTH WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND
THEN STALL THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 85 66 83 66 / 0 0 0 10
MKL 85 62 81 63 / 0 0 10 10
JBR 85 62 81 63 / 0 0 0 10
TUP 84 63 81 64 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
OKULSKI
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMRX 110713
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE GA/SC COASTLINE TODAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY REGION.
THE RESULTING EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE 850
MB LAYER INTO OUR AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TODAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN THE VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT CHA COULD SEE SOME BROKEN CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP LOWS AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE NORTHERN
SECTIONS COULD REACH THE UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY. WITH STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STAYED NEAR
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 61 81 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 58 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 58 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 49 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/GH
000
FXUS64 KMRX 110522
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME BRIEF
MVFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE...AN EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW REGIME IS NOT CONDUSIVE FOR FOG...SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE FOG IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT
WILL BE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CLODUS SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED BUT MAY GO BROKEN AT CHA LATE TODAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOHX 110234
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
934 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK AS THE MID STATE STAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. CURRENTLY SKIES WERE CLEAR
WITH CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. UPDATED FIRST PERIOD WINDS
FOR THE EVENING TIMING WORDING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN 24 HOURS AGO. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO OUR BONE-DRY ATMOSPHERE, AND
WITH EVEN WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY. SURFACE MAP AT 19Z SHOWS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL BE
OUR NEXT RAIN-MAKER IN A FEW DAYS.
LOOK FOR A LEFTOVER UPPER TROUGH TO ROTATE INTO THE MID STATE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ENABLE A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE LOCAL
AREA, ALTHOUGH IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION, WE CAN EXPECT TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY
OR TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW
TO REACH THE MID STATE, AND SLOW TO LEAVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE ON TOP OF US, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND A ZONAL FLOW STILL PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY, WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE FINALLY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
000
FXUS64 KMEG 110114
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
814 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AS OF 8 PM. AN H5 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. NO UPDATES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WHERE THERE IS AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BUT AS IT APPROACHES SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY EVEN RETREAT NORTH
BRIEFLY BEFORE COMPLETELY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 65 85 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 61 85 62 81 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 59 85 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 61 84 63 81 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
ARS/RJO
000
FXUS64 KMRX 110102
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
902 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK IN GENERALLY
TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 83 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 82 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 82 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 80 52 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LCM
000
FXUS64 KMRX 102315
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN AC DECK FROM PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COAST EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
WITH ONLY SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ANTICIPATED FROM LIGHT FOG
BY EARLY MORNING.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LCM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 102003
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN 24 HOURS AGO. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO OUR BONE-DRY ATMOSPHERE, AND
WITH EVEN WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY. SURFACE MAP AT 19Z SHOWS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL BE
OUR NEXT RAIN-MAKER IN A FEW DAYS.
LOOK FOR A LEFTOVER UPPER TROUGH TO ROTATE INTO THE MID STATE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ENABLE A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE LOCAL
AREA, ALTHOUGH IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION, WE CAN EXPECT TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY
OR TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW
TO REACH THE MID STATE, AND SLOW TO LEAVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE ON TOP OF US, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND A ZONAL FLOW STILL PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY, WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE FINALLY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 59 84 63 83 / 0 0 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 56 86 60 84 / 0 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 57 79 60 76 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 60 83 62 81 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 60 83 62 80 / 0 0 10 10
WAVERLY 58 85 61 83 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
000
FXUS64 KMEG 101957
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
257 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WHERE THERE IS AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BUT AS IT APPROACHES SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY EVEN RETREAT NORTH
BRIEFLY BEFORE COMPLETELY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 65 85 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 61 85 62 81 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 59 85 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 61 84 63 81 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 101849
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA
COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
TN AND SOUTHWEST NC WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARDS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SINCE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM TOO LOW ON SUNDAY CONSIDERING THE STRONG
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...SO WILL TREND WARMER.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH POOR MODEL AND RUN
CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT TOWARD A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL ACROSS THE GENERAL REGION
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG IT AROUND THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. TIMING...STRENGTH AND POSITIONS REMAIN IN QUESTION THROUGHOUT
FOR LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE AND STAYED CLOSE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 83 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 59 82 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 82 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 80 52 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG/MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 101801
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE THE POSSIBLY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KMEG 101457
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
957 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S. WITH SKIES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH IN
THE LOWER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MEMPHIS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...DESPITE
SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRESENT...THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
REMAIN MOISTURE STARVED.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND BEYOND. THE FIRST OF THE TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 83 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 82 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 78 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 83 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 101422
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN FL AND
SOUTHERN GA COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST TN FOOTHILLS. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL
PLAN TO UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 101121
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING AN
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SOME CU SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND NOON AROUND
5 KFT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
SOME BROKEN CLOUDS TO CHA TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR
HEIGHTS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMEG 100938
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
438 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MEMPHIS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE LOWER 60S.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...DESPITE
SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRESENT...THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
REMAIN MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND BEYOND. THE FIRST OF THE TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 100753
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
253 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND)...
SFC HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR TO PREVAIL. SFC HIGH DRIFTS INTO NEW
ENGLAND STATES THIS WEEKEND BUT UPPER RIDGE REINFORCES THE DRY
PATTERN INTO THE HOLIDAY.
GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK ON SUN WITH WEST MOVEMENT OF UPR CUTOFF
LOW OVR THE SOUTHEAST. INCIDENTALLY THIS LOW BROUGH MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO MID TN A FEW DAYS AGO. DID NOT BUY INTO GFS MOISTURE
SUN WITH GEM H5 PATTERN MUCH SMOOTHER. WARM AND DRY PATTERN WITH
UPR RIDGE IN CONTROL THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY.
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S METRO NASHVILLE SAT-SUN. PROBABLY
THE SAME ON COLUMBUS DAY.
.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
APPROACH OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT GET THROUGH MID TN
UNTIL THU...WITH CHANCE OF PCPN CONTINUING. COOLER AIR BEHIND SYS
LOWERS TEMPS TO CLIMO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 82 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 82 61 86 61 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 77 56 77 58 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 83 60 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 83 60 84 62 / 0 0 10 10
WAVERLY 83 61 85 62 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KMRX 100700
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIAN REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AN EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA DRY TODAY. SOME CU SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE WEST AS THE
EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS...AND THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MET GUIDANCE
SHOWS CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH...BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE FOR SUCH
A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE...WILL KEEP ONLY 20 POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR NOW. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 60 83 61 81 / 0 10 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 59 82 58 80 / 0 10 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 58 82 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 53 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/GH
000
FXUS64 KMRX 100514
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
FORMATION AT THE TAF SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER AN
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT IS TYPICALLY NOT CONDUSIVE TO DENSE
FOG FORMATION. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING SLIGHTLY...WITH LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMEG 100237 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
937 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN NORTHEAST MS TO
THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE EARLIER TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OVER EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT WHAT FEW
CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALSO MOVE EAST.
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SO THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
RETURN OF DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 56 83 66 85 / 0 10 10 10
MKL 50 83 61 84 / 0 10 10 10
JBR 49 81 60 84 / 0 10 10 10
TUP 55 84 63 84 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 100122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
922 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...STILL A BIT OF PRECIP OVER SW NC. WILL KEEP 20 POPS
FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST. WILL MAKE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. WILL ALSO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS TO BRING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH OBS...BUT MIN TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 82 61 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 81 60 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 81 60 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 80 54 81 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 100113
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
814 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT MID
EVENING...ONLY SCT CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REMOVE THE EVENING WORDING AND INCLUDE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR ALL ZONES. LOOK FOR LIGHT NE WINDS TO CONTINUE
AS WELL.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME RATHER LOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. THUS...MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG LATE ACROSS THE PLATEAU
BUT I WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE ZONES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMRX 092331
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.AVIATION...UPPER LOW PULLING AWAY AND BEING REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM NORTH DURING TAF
PERIOD. STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SO THINK
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. WHILE CAN NOT RULE
OUT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AND VIS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...FOR NOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE...SO WILL JUST CARRY TEMPO MVFR
VIS FOR FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 091946
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OVER EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT WHAT FEW
CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALSO MOVE EAST.
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SO THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
RETURN OF DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 58 83 66 85 / 0 10 10 10
MKL 53 83 61 84 / 0 10 10 10
JBR 52 81 60 84 / 0 10 10 10
TUP 57 84 63 84 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 091901
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
201 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUES TO SPIN CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS EAST HALF OF MID STATE AND PLATEAU. THE CLOUDS CLOSER
TO NASHVILLE THIS AFTERNOON LOOK BE DIURNAL BUT DO EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN EASTERN MIDDLE AND ALONG PLATEAU IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS UPPER LOW IS SLUGGISH IN PULLING EAST. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND ALONG PLATEAU WILL MOST LIKELY BE
AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY.
UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE BAND OF WESTERLIES TO OUR
NORTH...BUT LOW FINALLY WOBBLES OFF GEORGIA COAST LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH A REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION BY 12Z SATURDAY
ALONG THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST.
LOOKS LIKE ALL IN ALL A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER COMING UP
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WORKS OVER THE EASTERN US. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MID STATE
LOOKS TO BE ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 55 83 62 83 / 0 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 51 80 59 84 / 0 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 56 76 58 77 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 56 82 61 83 / 0 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 56 82 61 83 / 0 10 10 10
WAVERLY 53 81 60 84 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
000
FXUS64 KMRX 091839
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT GENERALLY ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FL
AND SOUTHERN GA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER GA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDINESS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN OVERNIGHT. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...BEFORE IT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ON
FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE NATION. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE MODELS REVEAL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING. AS FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOOK REASONABLE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON MAXES AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
...PROVIDING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING
THE POSITION AND TIMING OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 82 61 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 58 81 60 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 81 60 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 80 54 81 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG/MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 091750
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.AVIATION...SCATTERED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...WILL SEE FOG FORM OVER THE AREA FOR MFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS BY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KOHX 091502
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1002 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ALONG PLATEAU AND IN EASTERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS 300 DEG KELVIN ISENTROPIC SURFACE
CONTINUES TO SHOW LIFT IN THAT AREA WITH SMALL CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS. MOISTURE FETCH MAY BE COMING IN FROM ATLANTIC.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
000
FXUS64 KMEG 091439
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE SUNNY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AND SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE 70S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEED TO SEND AN UPDATE TO REMOVE SOME MORNING WORDING
BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ALABAMA
EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME CLOUD COVER
LINGERS OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY LEAVING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND STRENGTHENING
OVER THE MID SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND HAVE
GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO WINTER EQUATIONS PROVIDING SOME
UNREALISTIC COOL BIAS UNDER THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER...PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH INCREASED MOISTER SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BY NEXT WEEK...A CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
COMPARED TO THE SLOWER AND WEAKER ECMWF. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND ADVERTISE A FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN
INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH CONTINUED MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS LOW. HOPEFULLY THESE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RESOLVED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 79 58 83 67 / 0 0 10 10
MKL 78 53 83 61 / 0 0 10 10
JBR 78 52 81 61 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 79 56 84 63 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 091345
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
GENERALLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER GA SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDINESS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 091121
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AS
SURFACE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT CLOUD DECK FROM THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LCM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 090837
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
337 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...SFC LOW CENTERED OVER THE SERN STATES CONTINUES TO
PULL SLOWLY EWD AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST CNTRL AL.
RAINFALL YSTDA COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL GENERATE
A BIT OF FOG IN EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BURNING OFF TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE HANGS IN OVER THE ERN AND SERN US THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG H5
SHORTWAVE MOVES NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES MON AND CRUISES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUE. THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT
PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE. AT THIS POINT THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIVERGE A BIT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT
SWD WHILE THE EUROPEAN HOLDS IT UP A BIT...THEN THE EUROPEAN
PUSHES THE FRONTAL ZONE SEWD INTO THE AREA LATE WED. UNTIL SOME
AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED ON THIS FEATURE...WILL GO WITH A LOW POP FOR
THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME.
6 TO 10 DAY EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOKS FROM CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIP.
ONE MONTH OUTLOOKS SHOW NO SGFNT TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 78 58 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 77 55 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 73 58 76 58 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 77 59 81 63 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 77 60 81 63 / 0 0 10 10
WAVERLY 77 56 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KMEG 090817
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ALABAMA
EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME CLOUD COVER
LINGERS OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY LEAVING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND STRENGTHENING
OVER THE MID SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND HAVE
GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO WINTER EQUATIONS PROVIDING SOME
UNREALISTIC COOL BIAS UNDER THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER...PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH INCREASED MOISTER SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BY NEXT WEEK...A CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
COMPARED TO THE SLOWER AND WEAKER ECMWF. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND ADVERTISE A FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN
INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH CONTINUED MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS LOW. HOPEFULLY THESE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RESOLVED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 79 58 83 67 / 0 0 10 10
MKL 78 53 83 61 / 0 0 10 10
JBR 78 52 81 61 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 79 56 84 63 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JLH
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