[top]
000
FXUS64 KSJT 290438
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF SUTTON COUNTY CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER
FAR SW TEXAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE SOA AIRPORT...SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING. MAIN TAF SITES AFFECTED WILL BE JCT AND SOA WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS ALSO FOR BBD AND SJT. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MUCH LIKE THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WITH CB INCLUDED FOR NOW IN AREA TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT SJT SINCE
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT GREATER NEAR SAN ANGELO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS AT SOA AND JCT FOR POSSIBLE
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE. DO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE SAME WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING TO EASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF JULIO STILL EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH ONGOING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM COAST TO
COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MOISTURE AXIS OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL
BE PUSHED FURTHER WEST BUT THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WESTERN SECTIONS
BEING FAVORED.
LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAY SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT INTO THE MID 90S
BY TUESDAY. LONG TERM IS OF COURSE STILL DEPENDENT ON THE
ULTIMATE DISPOSITION OF THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV WHICH IS STILL
PROJECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS EAST TEXAS IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 91 71 90 70 / 20 20 20 10 10
SAN ANGELO 70 89 69 90 68 / 20 30 30 20 20
JUNCTION 71 87 69 90 69 / 20 20 40 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08
[top]
000
FXUS64 KFWD 290417
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE...VFR THRU PERIOD. SHOULD SEE ISOLD
AFTN CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. SFC WINDS
LIKELY TO SHIFT A BIT MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAINLY REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS ACTIVITY NEAR
LAMPASAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
SKY COVER TO MORE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR OVER PARTLY CLOUDY AND MADE WINDS
MORE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE SENT.
WE/LL BE MAINTAINING A WATCH ON SOON-TO-BE HURRICANE GUSTAV
AFFECTING JAMAICA ATTM...ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE TAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTLINE
PER PRELIM HURRICANE CENTER TRACKING. THESE STORMS CAN BE
TRICKY...SO MANY MORE UPDATES TO COME ON THE TRACK UPDATES AND WE
KEEP SHOWING UPDATE GRAPHICAL IMAGES ON OUR WEB-PAGE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. /05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
315 PM
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STARTING TOMORROW...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOVING EAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
ITS VAST EXPANSE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED EAST BY A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS BUT THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
STAY WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH GUSTAV AND THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS ON NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS
AS IS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND A WEAK BOUNDARY /OR
POSSIBLY THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT/ WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS
BOUNDARY/FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT IT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY AND RATHER WARM AND THEN POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM GUSTAV WOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO TREND THE FORECAST IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH SLIGHT POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO TEXAS IF
THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH.
ALSO OF INTEREST NEXT WEEK WILL BE TROPICAL STORM HANNA. NEW
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE STORM SLIPPING SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 99 77 97 76 / 10 10 20 20 10
WACO, TX 75 97 73 96 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
PARIS, TX 72 95 72 93 72 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 73 98 74 96 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 97 73 96 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 79 98 78 97 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 74 96 72 95 74 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 96 72 95 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 73 97 72 95 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KAMA 290328 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1028 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE SOME EVENING WORDING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS AREAWIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS ALL READY SENT OUT.
TAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR GLENRIO...TO NEAR
BORGER...TO LIBERAL AND SAGGING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO KAMA ANYTIME SOON SO I
HAVE KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 10Z BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING A NORTH
WIND AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT...RESULTING
IN A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING. I MENTIONED VCTS AT KAMA THROUGH 02Z. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO IMPACT KAMA AROUND 00Z GIVING US SOME VARIABLE
WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...LIKELY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. I HAVE INSERTED CB REMARKS FOR KAMA BEGINNING AT 21Z FRIDAY.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY SITTING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM DALHART TO GUYMON
AND MAY STILL MOVE A FEW MILES SOUTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE RECEIVING A
BETTER PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON
THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FRONT STALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLES AND WASHING OUT. SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT COOLER CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE AND LL WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIP AND WITH THE GFS AND NAM BREAKING OUT
PRECIP...DECIDED TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST. POP
CHANCES THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US AND PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WOULD FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS WARM AIR TO RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. WESTERLY COMPONENT REMAINS IN THE UPPER FLOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. POP CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND
DIURNAL INFLUENCES WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. GFS AND
EURO PROJECT A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINKING THE MEX WAS RUNNING TOO COOL WITH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES SEEMED JUSTIFIED AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
JJB
FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MAINLY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. LITTLE OR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/10
[top]
000
FXUS64 KCRP 290250 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
950 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...WEAK MID-UPR LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST HAS CREPT EAST IN
LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW CENTERED ACROSS WRN TX AND NERN MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT THAT WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ON THE ERN SIDE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE BORDER TEASING WRN COS...BUT
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWN BY GFS ALONG WITH
POSSIBILITY OF AN OUTFLOW CROSSING THE BORDER SUGGESTS KEEPING A
LOW END CHC (30) POP IN WRN 2 COS OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST...ISOLD
TO SCT COASTAL SHRA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WARM GULF
WATERS. WILL SHOW 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLD (LESS THAN 20) POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR ACTIVITY THAT MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE DISSIPATING.
HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS ACCORDING TO ABOVE DISCUSSION AND UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND MAY AFFECT KLRD.
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR (AND POSSIBLE BRIEF LIFR) CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND FOG MAY
ONCE AGAIN FORM...GENERALLY FROM KALI TO KVCT NEAR SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS
FOR KCRP...KVCT AND KALI AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR KLRD WHERE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP IS THE GREATEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A MID/UPR LOW LOCATED
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND RGN WL MOVE LTL THROUGH THE PD.
THIS WL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOURCE OF LIFT ACROSS THE WRN AREAS
THROUGH THE PD. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWS AT OR JUST ABV 2
INCHES WL ALSO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. EITHER WAY...WL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT
WEST WITH LESSENING POPS FURTHER EAST. THE MCS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WL LKLY DISSIPATE TNT AND HAVE LTL TO NO EFFECT ON OUR
WX. THE HIGH BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE WL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. MEANWHILE THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR...INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AND EASTERLY FLOW WL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THETA-E/MOISTURE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING WEST OF THE
CWA. STILL WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND BEYOND RELIES SOLELY ON THE TRACK OF GUSTAV. CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WILL FORECAST NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AS GUSTAV ENTERS THE GULF BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS
INTO LOUISIANA. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...THE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WOULD GENERATE A WARMING/DRYING TREND
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TREND WOULD LEAD TO
ALMOST TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE READINGS AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 77
BY WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME BY THURSDAY AS GUSTAV
PUSHES FARTHER INLAND INTO THE MID-SOUTH STATES. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD MODERATE TEMPS AS THE MARITIME AIR MASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LRD TAF
SITE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN DEVELOP BY 09Z FRI ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TX. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ALI AND VCT. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN RESUME BY 15Z FRI AS
THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DISSIPATE. SCT/BKN MVFR CEILINGS WL BE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z FRI.
MARINE...OTHER THAN PASSING CONVECTION...THE WATERS WL REMAIN
FAIRLY TRANQUIL. ONLY A WK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 92 77 92 74 / 10 30 20 30 10
VICTORIA 75 92 74 94 73 / 10 30 20 20 10
LAREDO 78 92 77 94 76 / 30 50 40 40 30
ALICE 77 93 76 93 73 / 10 40 20 30 20
ROCKPORT 80 92 79 92 78 / 10 30 20 20 10
COTULLA 76 93 75 93 72 / 30 50 40 40 30
KINGSVILLE 77 93 76 92 73 / 10 30 20 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 91 79 90 77 / 10 30 20 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG...UPDATE
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEWX 290201 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
901 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.UPDATE...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN WEST OF THE
BIG BEND REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO HINDES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S CENTRAL TX. ISOLD-SCT EVENING SHRA/TSRA
WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 08Z WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY DIPPING TO IFR
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
PWATS HAVE INCREASED AS FORECAST TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA...AND THE RESULT IS SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE CURRENT ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY TOTALS UP TO
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FORECAST
BEYOND SUNDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF WHAT WILL THEN BE
HURRICANE GUSTAV. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOWED
EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BRINGING GUSTAV INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK OF
GUSTAV FROM THESE TWO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREES WITH THE CURRENT
NHC TRACK. THIS ADDS-UP FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST
FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTAV TO MAKE A BIT OF A WESTWARD TURN PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH THE
FORECAST POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH AS THE
KEY TO FORECASTING GUSTAV`S MOVEMENT.
THE 12Z GFSMOS OFFERED REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT GUIDANCE COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND GIVEN THE CURRENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO OUR
NUMBERS WILL BE VERY CLOSE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 93 74 95 74 / 20 20 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 93 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 88 72 87 71 / 60 60 60 50 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 92 74 92 73 / 20 20 30 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
13/01
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHGX 290125
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
825 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE
WANED. STILL RATHER ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A WEAK S/WV AT
700 MB SEEMS TO BE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS. THIS S/WV IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FEEL THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FOR THE REMAINER OF
TONIGHT...A RATHER EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL ENCROACH ON THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. MIGHT GET A LITTLE FOG TOWARD SUNRISE AS WELL. TEMP
FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES THERE. WILL CLEAN UP EVENING
WORDING OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
GUSTAV STILL CHURNING NEAR JAMAICA. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CENTER. CURRENT TRACK TAKES THE STORM
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BUT THE TRACK ERROR CONE EXTENDS WELL
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. KEEP UP WITH THE FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. 43
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AT THE FORECAST SITES. EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
BETWEEN 11 AND 13Z AT KUTS...KCXO...KSGR...AND KLBX. INCLUDED CB
REFERENCES IN THE FORECASTS AFTER 18Z DUE TO ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FLAT RIDGING OVER THE SW U.S. TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE TX/MO REGION
BY 12Z SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFY UP INTO OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT...STAYING
PUT OVER THE OHIO-PENN REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAKNESS FROM THE GULF UP INTO TX/LA THAT WILL LIKELY STEER TS
GUSTAV INTO THE GULF AND THEN NORTHWEST BE IT LA OR TX. HAVE TO
STRESS THAT AT THIS TIME THE ERROR CONE IS THE FORECAST TO BE
LOOKING AT RATHER THAN THE BLACK LINE!
AS FOR SETX IN THE SHORT TERM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE DRIVING THE
SEABREEZE AND DAYTIME CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO BE A
DECENT BET FRIDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY
THE STORMS MAY BE LATER IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS MORE IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WIND/THERMO PROFILE WOULD INDICATE THAT
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GREATER MICROBURST POTENTIAL. GUSTAV
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE GULF SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY GUSTAV SHOULD BE MOVING NORTHWEST AND SETX SHOULD
GETTING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...HENCE POPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER
SUNDAY.
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH GUSTAV TIMING AND TRACK
GUIDANCE BUT IF THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS ON THEN LANDFALL SHOULD
BE AROUND TUESDAY MORNING IN LA. STAY TUNED TO THE NHC FORECASTS FOR
THE LATEST TRACKS AND DETAILS.
MARINE...
RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HIGHER PERIOD SWELL WAVES SHOULD START MOVING OVER REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND DUE TO GUSTAV. FOR NOW...WE MADE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES FOR FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO NEXT WEEK SINCE
FCST TRACK ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED. KEEP IN MIND THAT WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON GUSTAV`S TRACK.
37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 95 75 / 10 30 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 93 75 / 10 30 30 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 91 79 90 79 / 10 30 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
000
FXUS64 KFWD 290014 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAINLY REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS ACTIVITY NEAR
LAMPASAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
SKY COVER TO MORE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR OVER PARTLY CLOUDY AND MADE WINDS
MORE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE SENT.
WE`LL BE MAINTAINING A WATCH ON SOON-TO-BE HURRICANE GUSTAV AFFECTING
JAMAICA ATTM...ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TAKING
IT INTO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTLINE PER PRELIM HURRICANE CENTER TRACKING.
THESE STORMS CAN BE TRICKY...SO MANY MORE UPDATES TO COME ON THE TRACK
UPDATES AND WE KEEP SHOWING UPDATE GRAPHICAL IMAGES ON OUR WEB-PAGE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
/05
&&
.AVIATION...
642 PM
VFR THRU PERIOD. SOUTH FLOW TO CONTINUE...VERY ISOLD AFTN STORMS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
315 PM
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STARTING TOMORROW...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOVING EAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
ITS VAST EXPANSE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED EAST BY A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS BUT THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
STAY WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH GUSTAV AND THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS ON NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS
AS IS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND A WEAK BOUNDARY /OR
POSSIBLY THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT/ WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS
BOUNDARY/FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT IT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY AND RATHER WARM AND THEN POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM GUSTAV WOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO TREND THE FORECAST IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH SLIGHT POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO TEXAS IF
THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH.
ALSO OF INTEREST NEXT WEEK WILL BE TROPICAL STORM HANNA. NEW
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE STORM SLIPPING SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 99 77 97 76 / 10 10 20 20 10
WACO, TX 75 97 73 96 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
PARIS, TX 72 95 72 93 72 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 73 98 74 96 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 97 73 96 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 79 98 78 97 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 74 96 72 95 74 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 96 72 95 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 73 97 72 95 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/05
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMAF 290013
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
713 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT BOTH
KHOB AND KCNM THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH EITHER A TEMPO GROUP OR
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER
STAND THE BETTER CHANCE OF A LONGER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS GIVEN LOW-
LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GROUP LIMITED
TO KCNM AND KFST.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBRO 290008
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
705 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...AFTER ANALYSIS OF CAMPECHE FEATURE AND EJECTED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE
POPS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 18 CDT/23 UTC.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS EASTERLY SWELL FROM GUSTAV
...FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME...REACHES THE ADJACENT
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...CIRRUS FROM DISSIPATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TRIO OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS
FRIDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 78 89 / 30 50 40 20
BROWNSVILLE 78 91 77 91 / 30 50 40 30
HARLINGEN 77 91 76 91 / 30 50 40 30
MCALLEN 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 30 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 92 75 91 / 20 50 50 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 79 89 / 30 50 40 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
58/66
000
FXUS64 KEWX 282348
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S CENTRAL TX. ISOLD-SCT EVENING SHRA/TSRA
WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 08Z WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY DIPPING TO IFR
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
PWATS HAVE INCREASED AS FORECAST TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA...AND THE RESULT IS SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE CURRENT ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY TOTALS UP TO
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FORECAST
BEYOND SUNDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF WHAT WILL THEN BE
HURRICANE GUSTAV. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOWED
EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BRINGING GUSTAV INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK OF
GUSTAV FROM THESE TWO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREES WITH THE CURRENT
NHC TRACK. THIS ADDS-UP FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST
FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTAV TO MAKE A BIT OF A WESTWARD TURN PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH THE
FORECAST POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH AS THE
KEY TO FORECASTING GUSTAV`S MOVEMENT.
THE 12Z GFSMOS OFFERED REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT GUIDANCE COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND GIVEN THE CURRENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO OUR
NUMBERS WILL BE VERY CLOSE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 93 74 95 74 / 10 20 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 93 70 95 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 88 72 87 71 / 60 60 60 50 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 92 74 92 73 / 20 20 30 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
13/01
000
FXUS64 KBRO 282343
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS LEFT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NOW...AFTER
A DAY OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS MVD OVR MAINLY NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. MORE SHRAS/TSRAS OVER A LARGER AREA
OF THE RGV ARE FCST FOR FRIDAY.
HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WEAK 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NORTHWARD...A CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF GUSTAV DOES NOT INTENSIFY AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST OR MOVES FARTHER WEST OR EAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 18 CDT/23 UTC.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS EASTERLY SWELL FROM GUSTAV
...FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME...REACHES THE ADJACENT
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...CIRRUS FROM DISSIPATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TRIO OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS
FRIDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 78 89 / 10 50 40 20
BROWNSVILLE 78 91 77 91 / 10 50 40 30
HARLINGEN 77 91 76 91 / 10 50 40 30
MCALLEN 77 91 76 91 / 10 50 30 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 92 75 91 / 10 50 50 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 79 89 / 10 50 40 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
58/66
000
FXUS64 KAMA 282340 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR GLENRIO...TO NEAR
BORGER...TO LIBERAL AND SAGGING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO KAMA ANYTIME SOON SO I
HAVE KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 10Z BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING A NORTH
WIND AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT...RESULTING
IN A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING. I MENTIONED VCTS AT KAMA THROUGH 02Z. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO IMPACT KAMA AROUND 00Z GIVING US SOME VARIABLE
WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...LIKELY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. I HAVE INSERTED CB REMARKS FOR KAMA BEGINNING AT 21Z FRIDAY.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY SITTING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM DALHART TO GUYMON
AND MAY STILL MOVE A FEW MILES SOUTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE RECEIVING A
BETTER PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON
THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FRONT STALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLES AND WASHING OUT. SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT COOLER CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE AND LL WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIP AND WITH THE GFS AND NAM BREAKING OUT
PRECIP...DECIDED TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST. POP
CHANCES THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US AND PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WOULD FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS WARM AIR TO RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. WESTERLY COMPONENT REMAINS IN THE UPPER FLOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. POP CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND
DIURNAL INFLUENCES WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. GFS AND
EURO PROJECT A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINKING THE MEX WAS RUNNING TOO COOL WITH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES SEEMED JUSTIFIED AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
JJB
FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MAINLY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. LITTLE OR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/10
000
FXUS64 KFWD 282340
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
642 PM
VFR THRU PERIOD. SOUTH FLOW TO CONTINUE...VERY ISOLD AFTN STORMS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. 84
&&
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STARTING TOMORROW...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOVING EAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
ITS VAST EXPANSE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED EAST BY A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS BUT THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
STAY WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH GUSTAV AND THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS ON NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS
AS IS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND A WEAK BOUNDARY /OR
POSSIBLY THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT/ WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS
BOUNDARY/FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT IT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY AND RATHER WARM AND THEN POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM GUSTAV WOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO TREND THE FORECAST IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH SLIGHT POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO TEXAS IF
THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH.
ALSO OF INTEREST NEXT WEEK WILL BE TROPICAL STORM HANNA. NEW
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE STORM SLIPPING SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 99 77 97 76 / 10 10 20 20 10
WACO, TX 75 97 73 96 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
PARIS, TX 72 95 72 93 72 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 73 98 74 96 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 97 73 96 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 79 98 78 97 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 74 96 72 95 74 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 96 72 95 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 73 97 72 95 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/82
000
FXUS64 KCRP 282333
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND MAY AFFECT KLRD.
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR (AND POSSIBLE BRIEF LIFR) CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND FOG MAY
ONCE AGAIN FORM...GENERALLY FROM KALI TO KVCT NEAR SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS
FOR KCRP...KVCT AND KALI AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR KLRD WHERE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP IS THE GREATEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A MID/UPR LOW LOCATED
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND RGN WL MOVE LTL THROUGH THE PD.
THIS WL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOURCE OF LIFT ACROSS THE WRN AREAS
THROUGH THE PD. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWS AT OR JUST ABV 2
INCHES WL ALSO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. EITHER WAY...WL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT
WEST WITH LESSENING POPS FURTHER EAST. THE MCS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WL LKLY DISSIPATE TNT AND HAVE LTL TO NO EFFECT ON OUR
WX. THE HIGH BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE WL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. MEANWHILE THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR...INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AND EASTERLY FLOW WL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THETA-E/MOISTURE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING WEST OF THE
CWA. STILL WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND BEYOND RELIES SOLELY ON THE TRACK OF GUSTAV. CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WILL FORECAST NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AS GUSTAV ENTERS THE GULF BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS
INTO LOUISIANA. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...THE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WOULD GENERATE A WARMING/DRYING TREND
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TREND WOULD LEAD TO
ALMOST TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE READINGS AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 77
BY WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME BY THURSDAY AS GUSTAV
PUSHES FARTHER INLAND INTO THE MID-SOUTH STATES. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD MODERATE TEMPS AS THE MARITIME AIR MASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LRD TAF
SITE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN DEVELOP BY 09Z FRI ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TX. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ALI AND VCT. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN RESUME BY 15Z FRI AS
THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DISSIPATE. SCT/BKN MVFR CEILINGS WL BE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z FRI.
MARINE...OTHER THAN PASSING CONVECTION...THE WATERS WL REMAIN
FAIRLY TRANQUIL. ONLY A WK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 92 77 92 74 / 20 30 20 30 10
VICTORIA 75 92 74 94 73 / 20 30 20 20 10
LAREDO 78 92 77 94 76 / 40 50 40 40 30
ALICE 77 93 76 93 73 / 30 40 20 30 20
ROCKPORT 80 92 79 92 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
COTULLA 76 93 75 93 72 / 40 50 40 40 30
KINGSVILLE 77 93 76 92 73 / 30 30 20 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 91 79 90 77 / 20 30 20 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
KRR/97...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KSJT 282328
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT SJT SINCE
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT GREATER NEAR SAN ANGELO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS AT SOA AND JCT FOR POSSIBLE
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE. DO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE SAME WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING TO EASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF JULIO STILL EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH ONGOING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM COAST TO
COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MOISTURE AXIS OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL
BE PUSHED FURTHER WEST BUT THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WESTERN SECTIONS
BEING FAVORED.
LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAY SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT INTO THE MID 90S
BY TUESDAY. LONG TERM IS OF COURSE STILL DEPENDENT ON THE
ULTIMATE DISPOSITION OF THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV WHICH IS STILL
PROJECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS EAST TEXAS IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 91 71 90 70 / 20 20 20 10 10
SAN ANGELO 70 89 69 90 68 / 20 30 30 20 20
JUNCTION 71 87 69 90 69 / 20 20 40 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KAMA 282107
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY SITTING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM DALHART TO GUYMON
AND MAY STILL MOVE A FEW MILES SOUTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE RECEIVING A
BETTER PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON
THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FRONT STALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLES AND WASHING OUT. SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT COOLER CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE AND LL WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIP AND WITH THE GFS AND NAM BREAKING OUT
PRECIP...DECIDED TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST. POP
CHANCES THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US AND PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WOULD FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS WARM AIR TO RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. WESTERLY COMPONENT REMAINS IN THE UPPER FLOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. POP CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND
DIURNAL INFLUENCES WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. GFS AND
EURO PROJECT A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINKING THE MEX WAS RUNNING TOO COOL WITH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES SEEMED JUSTIFIED AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
JJB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MAINLY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. LITTLE OR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 65 88 61 86 63 / 20 20 20 10 10
BEAVER OK 67 90 64 94 67 / 10 20 20 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 59 84 59 88 61 / 10 20 20 10 10
BORGER TX 70 93 63 89 68 / 20 20 20 10 10
BOYS RANCH TX 67 89 62 91 63 / 20 20 20 20 10
CANYON TX 63 88 62 88 61 / 20 20 20 20 10
CLARENDON TX 69 90 64 88 65 / 20 20 20 10 10
DALHART TX 61 85 58 89 61 / 10 20 20 20 10
GUYMON OK 63 86 61 92 66 / 10 20 20 10 10
HEREFORD TX 64 86 62 87 60 / 20 20 20 20 10
LIPSCOMB TX 67 92 63 91 67 / 10 20 20 10 10
PAMPA TX 69 89 61 85 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
SHAMROCK TX 69 93 67 91 65 / 20 20 20 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 70 93 68 91 66 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/14
000
FXUS64 KEWX 282046
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
PWATS HAVE INCREASED AS FORECAST TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA...AND THE RESULT IS SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE CURRENT ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY TOTALS UP TO
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FORECAST
BEYOND SUNDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF WHAT WILL THEN BE
HURRICANE GUSTAV. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOWED
EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BRINGING GUSTAV INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK OF
GUSTAV FROM THESE TWO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREES WITH THE CURRENT
NHC TRACK. THIS ADDS-UP FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST
FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTAV TO MAKE A BIT OF A WESTWARD TURN PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH THE
FORECAST POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH AS THE
KEY TO FORECASTING GUSTAV`S MOVEMENT.
THE 12Z GFSMOS OFFERED REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT GUIDANCE COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND GIVEN THE CURRENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO OUR
NUMBERS WILL BE VERY CLOSE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 93 74 95 74 / 10 20 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 93 70 95 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 88 72 87 71 / 60 60 60 50 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 92 74 92 73 / 20 20 30 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11/06
000
FXUS64 KSJT 282030
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF JULIO STILL EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH ONGOING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM COAST TO
COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MOISTURE AXIS OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL
BE PUSHED FURTHER WEST BUT THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WESTERN SECTIONS
BEING FAVORED.
.LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAY SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT INTO THE MID 90S
BY TUESDAY. LONG TERM IS OF COURSE STILL DEPENDENT ON THE
ULTIMATE DISPOSITION OF THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV WHICH IS STILL
PROJECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS EAST TEXAS IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 91 71 90 70 / 20 20 20 10 10
SAN ANGELO 70 89 69 90 68 / 20 30 30 20 20
JUNCTION 71 87 69 90 69 / 20 20 40 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/15
000
FXUS64 KCRP 282021
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
321 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A MID/UPR LOW LOCATED
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND RGN WL MOVE LTL THROUGH THE PD.
THIS WL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOURCE OF LIFT ACROSS THE WRN AREAS
THROUGH THE PD. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWS AT OR JUST ABV 2
INCHES WL ALSO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. EITHER WAY...WL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT
WEST WITH LESSENING POPS FURTHER EAST. THE MCS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WL LKLY DISSIPATE TNT AND HAVE LTL TO NO EFFECT ON OUR
WX. THE HIGH BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE WL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. MEANWHILE THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR...INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AND EASTERLY FLOW WL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THETA-E/MOISTURE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING WEST OF THE
CWA. STILL WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND BEYOND RELIES SOLELY ON THE TRACK OF GUSTAV. CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WILL FORECAST NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AS GUSTAV ENTERS THE GULF BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS
INTO LOUISIANA. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...THE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WOULD GENERATE A WARMING/DRYING TREND
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TREND WOULD LEAD TO
ALMOST TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE READINGS AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 77
BY WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME BY THURSDAY AS GUSTAV
PUSHES FARTHER INLAND INTO THE MID-SOUTH STATES. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD MODERATE TEMPS AS THE MARITIME AIR MASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LRD TAF
SITE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN DEVELOP BY 09Z FRI ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TX. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ALI AND VCT. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN RESUME BY 15Z FRI AS
THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DISSIPATE. SCT/BKN MVFR CEILINGS WL BE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z FRI.
&&
.MARINE...OTHER THAN PASSING CONVECTION...THE WATERS WL REMAIN
FAIRLY TRANQUIL. ONLY A WK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 92 77 92 74 / 20 30 20 30 10
VICTORIA 75 92 74 94 73 / 20 30 20 20 10
LAREDO 78 92 77 94 76 / 40 50 40 40 30
ALICE 77 93 76 93 73 / 30 40 20 30 20
ROCKPORT 80 92 79 92 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
COTULLA 76 93 75 93 72 / 40 50 40 40 30
KINGSVILLE 77 93 76 92 73 / 30 30 20 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 91 79 90 77 / 20 30 20 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 282015
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STARTING TOMORROW...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOVING EAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
ITS VAST EXPANSE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED EAST BY A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS BUT THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
STAY WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH GUSTAV AND THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS ON NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS
AS IS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND A WEAK BOUNDARY /OR
POSSIBLY THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT/ WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS
BOUNDARY/FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT IT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY AND RATHER WARM AND THEN POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM GUSTAV WOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO TREND THE FORECAST IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH SLIGHT POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO TEXAS IF
THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH.
ALSO OF INTEREST NEXT WEEK WILL BE TROPICAL STORM HANNA. NEW
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE STORM SLIPPING SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 99 77 97 76 / 10 10 20 20 10
WACO, TX 75 97 73 96 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
PARIS, TX 72 95 72 93 72 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 73 98 74 96 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 97 73 96 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 79 98 78 97 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 74 96 72 95 74 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 96 72 95 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 73 97 72 95 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/82
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLUB 282013
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.SHORT TERM...
LOCAL AIRMASS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH AS
MUCH INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING TO THE NORTH AS FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE HEATING NONE-THE-LESS ADEQUATE FOR UPWARDS
CONVECTION TO BREAK CAP AND PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DIFFICULTY SPECIFYING BEST AREAS FOR THUNDER FAVORS BROAD-BRUSH LOW
MENTION. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF ONCE AGAIN OVER NIGHT BEFORE
REPEATING FRIDAY. CHANGES FRIDAY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENCE
AND SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ALOFT MIGHT LEAD TO A BIT MORE
COVERAGE...BUT LOW MENTION OF THUNDER STILL PREFERRED. BRIEF SMALL
DOWNPOURS SEEM ASSURED BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR HIGHLIGHTING
CONCERNS. MCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FLAT 500 MB
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD MISSOURI
BY SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL BUILD AND MOVE TO NORTHERN
OHIO OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MEANWHILE A COUPLE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE
GREAT BASIN BY LABOR DAY. THUS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
BECOMING MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST...DEPENDING OF WHICH MODEL
ONE LOOKS AT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A
LOW OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 86 61 84 60 / 20 20 20 20 10
TULIA 66 87 61 86 62 / 20 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 85 61 85 63 / 20 20 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 64 84 62 86 63 / 20 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 70 86 64 87 65 / 20 20 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 64 83 61 87 62 / 20 30 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 65 85 62 88 64 / 20 30 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 92 68 91 68 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 68 85 64 90 67 / 20 20 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 71 88 67 91 68 / 20 20 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/08
000
FXUS64 KHGX 282011
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FLAT RIDGING OVER THE SW U.S. TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE TX/MO REGION
BY 12Z SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFY UP INTO OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT...STAYING
PUT OVER THE OHIO-PENN REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAKNESS FROM THE GULF UP INTO TX/LA THAT WILL LIKELY STEER TS
GUSTAV INTO THE GULF AND THEN NORTHWEST BE IT LA OR TX. HAVE TO
STRESS THAT AT THIS TIME THE ERROR CONE IS THE FORECAST TO BE
LOOKING AT RATHER THAN THE BLACK LINE!
AS FOR SETX IN THE SHORT TERM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE DRIVING THE
SEABREEZE AND DAYTIME CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO BE A
DECENT BET FRIDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY
THE STORMS MAY BE LATER IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS MORE IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WIND/THERMO PROFILE WOULD INDICATE THAT
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GREATER MICROBURST POTENTIAL. GUSTAV
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE GULF SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY GUSTAV SHOULD BE MOVING NORTHWEST AND SETX SHOULD
GETTING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...HENCE POPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER
SUNDAY.
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH GUSTAV TIMING AND TRACK
GUIDANCE BUT IF THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS ON THEN LANDFALL SHOULD
BE AROUND TUESDAY MORNING IN LA. STAY TUNED TO THE NHC FORECASTS FOR
THE LATEST TRACKS AND DETAILS.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HIGHER PERIOD SWELL WAVES SHOULD START MOVING OVER REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND DUE TO GUSTAV. FOR NOW...WE MADE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES FOR FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO NEXT WEEK SINCE
FCST TRACK ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED. KEEP IN MIND THAT WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON GUSTAV`S TRACK.
37
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INDUCED BY SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
SGR/HOU AND IAH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WE SHALL CONTINUE
WITH CB CLOUD GROUP AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY AS PER RADAR TRENDS.
WE EXPECT CLOSE TO SAME SCENARIO FOR LATER TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT)
WITH PATCHY FOG AFFECTING SOME TAF SITES INLAND (CXO/UTS/SGR).
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS (LIFR) MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER NW ZONES AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW AFFECTING CLL/UTS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CXO.
37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 95 75 / 30 30 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 93 75 / 30 30 30 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 91 79 90 79 / 20 30 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KMAF 281947
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL COMBINE TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. A CONGLOMERATE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
SWIRLING AROUND THE SAID UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
CWA...WITH THE LION`S SHARE OF LIFT EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDY...SHOWERY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME. HAVE INCREASED POPS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT APPEARS THE EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PERMIAN BASIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY MAXED OUT FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OVER A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND THE CHISOS MOUNTAINS...WITH
KMAF RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATING AROUND AN INCH OVER ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND EASTERN EDDY COUNTY IN NEW
MEXICO. KMAF RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE YIELDING A FEW POCKETS OF ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS SO FAR TODAY...WHILE THE CHISOS BASIN RAWS
SITE INDICATED ANOTHER INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY THAT OCCURRED OVER A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED COLDER CLOUD
TOPS MOVING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN COAHUILA...WHILE RADAR SHOWED THE
NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGION WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FAIRLY SCARCE THE LAST FEW
DAYS. DESPITE THE COVERAGE ON THE RADAR AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE
WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. WOULD GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT THINK AFTER THIS CURRENT BATCH OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION...CAPE VALUES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AND RAINFALL
RATES WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW. THINK FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL BE MORE APROPOS DUE TO THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LATEST MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IT APPEARS WE WILL
STILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS
RECEIVING PERSISTENT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO PICK FROM. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 68 86 67 83 / 20 30 30 40
CARLSBAD NM 66 83 65 81 / 40 40 20 40
DRYDEN TX 68 82 68 83 / 50 50 50 50
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 81 67 80 / 40 50 40 50
GUADALUPE PASS TX 59 77 57 72 / 50 50 30 30
HOBBS NM 65 83 64 80 / 20 40 30 40
MARFA TX 60 72 58 72 / 40 60 40 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 68 85 68 83 / 20 30 30 40
ODESSA TX 68 85 68 83 / 20 40 30 40
WINK TX 71 87 68 85 / 30 40 30 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
01/67
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281928
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
128 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WHILE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
WARM DRIER WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY
ELONGATED EAST-WEST UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO-
COLORADO BORDER VICINITY WHILE LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND BAJA. AT LOW LEVELS LITTLE
HAS CHANGED AS SUMMER THERMAL LOW COVERS ARIZONA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEIGHT-
PRESSURE ALIGNMENTS GENERATING DEEP LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. AN EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL FLOW SHOWS
TRAJECTORY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CWA WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER SUSTAINED ABOVE 1.3
INCHES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO DEEP
CONVECTION SEEMS POSSIBLE. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS DEEPER FORCING
MECHANISMS AS MODELS SUGGEST WEAK WAVES ALOFT EMBEDDED IN FLOW AND
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THESE FEATURES DIFFICULT
TO DETECT IN DATA VOID AREAS SO MORE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF STRONGER STORMS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LITTLE SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH
WEAKER FLOW HIGHER UP INDICATING SOME BACK BUILDING MAY OCCUR WITH
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
SYSTEM PHASING WITH UPPER LOW OVER BAJA BY SATURDAY. APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT UPPER RIDGE AXIS REFORMING FURTHER EAST ON
A NORTH-SOUTH ALIGNMENT INTO THE MID WEST. THESE TRENDS WILL
DEEPEN SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO NEAR 1.5. THUS HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES INTO THE AREA. RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS PROVIDING DEEPER LIFT AND STRONGER SHEAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INFERS WARM DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOME ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE TROUGH. GFS SHOWS BACK
DOOR FRONT INCREASING RAIN THREAT THURSDAY BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE ITO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
THROUGH MONDAY. THUS THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD BECOME LOWER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINS AND HIGH HUMIDITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 69 85 67 83 64 / 40 40 30 30 50
SIERRA BLANCA TX 60 83 61 79 57 / 40 40 30 30 50
LAS CRUCES 68 85 67 83 64 / 30 30 30 30 50
ALAMOGORDO 65 84 63 82 61 / 20 20 20 30 50
CLOUDCROFT 47 66 45 64 43 / 30 30 20 40 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 84 64 80 62 / 20 20 20 30 50
SILVER CITY 59 78 58 75 56 / 30 30 30 30 40
DEMING 65 85 64 82 62 / 30 30 30 30 50
LORDSBURG 64 84 63 81 62 / 40 30 30 30 50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH/ADAIR
000
FXUS64 KBRO 281909
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NORTHWARD...A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SUBSIDENCE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF GUSTAV DOES NOT
INTENSIFY AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED OR MOVES FARTHER WEST OR EAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CU FIELDS HAVE FORMED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AGAIN TODAY. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A DECREASE
IN SCT CU AND STORMS IS ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING
COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE AND DEVELOP EARLIER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AT 1PM...BUOY020
REPORTED A SOUTHEAST WIND AT 8 KNOTS WITH A WAVE HEIGHT BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FT. MTRPIL REPORTED A SOUTHEAST WIND AT 13 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME
CHANGE TO THE SEA STATE IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE STARTING LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PROJECTED PATH OF GUSTAV INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AN INCREASE IN
SWELLS OVER OPEN WATER WITH LARGER BREAKERS ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 78 89 / 20 50 40 20
BROWNSVILLE 78 91 77 91 / 20 50 40 30
HARLINGEN 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 40 30
MCALLEN 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 30 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 92 75 91 / 30 50 50 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 79 89 / 10 50 40 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
PUBLIC/GRIDS...61
AVIATION/MARINE...59/57
MESO/FXC...MARTINEZ
000
FXUS64 KLUB 281825
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
125 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS GOING UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...SO ADJUSTED AREA NORTHWARD
SLIGHTLY. MCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
SHORT TERM...
FCST AREA LOCATED BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER ERN SONORA/WRN CHIHUAHUA
AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS EWD TO SRN KS/NRN
OKLA AND THUS IN TRANSITION AREA FROM DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. GIVEN PROXMITY OF
THESE FEATURES TEND TO THINK THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND
LIKELY BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR ALL BUT SWRN ZONES WHERE MAY
BE ABLE TO SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE WORTH MENTION IN THE FCST.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE GIVEN EVER SO SMALL DECREASE IN PROGGED THICKNESSES.
LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS
PREVIOUSLY HAD A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY GONE BACK ON THIS
HANGING THE FRONT UP IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE ABRUPT
CHANGE...HAVE STILL KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DESPITE THE LACK
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES.
MORE MONSOONAL LIKE FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING
THE MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE REMAIN A BIG QUESTION ON WHICH ONE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. GREATEST CHANCE POINTS TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING AS A STRONGER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS SHOWN TO BE LESS POTENT IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BUT HAVE KEPT
CHANCES OF POPS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIP TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 85 61 84 60 / 10 20 20 10 10
TULIA 67 86 61 86 62 / 10 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 64 86 61 85 63 / 10 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 64 86 62 86 63 / 10 10 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 70 88 64 87 65 / 20 10 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 63 87 61 87 62 / 20 10 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 87 62 88 64 / 20 10 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 68 90 68 91 68 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 66 91 64 90 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 69 93 67 91 68 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99
000
FXUS64 KAMA 281751 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EASED NEAR A DALHART TO BEAVER LINE AT MIDDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE KDHT
AND KGUY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. TSRA COVERAGE MAY
BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST...SO KEPT CB WORDING FOR NOW.
NUNEZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION
AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED
MENTION OF CB AT KDHT AND KGUY. HOWEVER...UNDER ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KAMA...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WELL
NORTH OF THE CITY. KAMA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OK AND
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES TODAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL TO NEAR A CANADIAN
TX TO NARA VISA NM LINE BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT THEN IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. PLAN ON LEAVING POP GRIDS ALONE TODAY...BUT WILL ADJUST
CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT TO INCLUDE ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WILL
INCLUDE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN AS
UPPER HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE PANHANDLES ON UPSLOPE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE
THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LEFT
FORECAST DRY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ADDRESS
THIS POSSIBILITY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
UPPER HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THEREFORE
ADJUSTED POP GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST AND LOWEST POPS
EAST. LEFT SUNDAY NIGHT POPS ALONE BUT INCREASED POPS MONDAY INTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALL SECTIONS. LEADING SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LIKELY TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE. WENT WITH DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES...AND ADJUSTED
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO FORECAST HIGHEST POPS IN THE
EAST AND LOWEST POPS IN THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
LITTLE OR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS AS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/14
000
FXUS64 KEWX 281724
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 00Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 00Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF KDRT. MVFR
TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM KSSF TO KAUS AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
AVIATION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPAWN MOSTLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER FOCUS OVER THE WEST, AFFECTING DRT.
MORNING IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z WITH BRIEF DIPS IN
VSBY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. PERSISTENCE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN NRN MEXICO UPPER
DISTURBANCE STUCK BENEATH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE. LOW CIGS WILL LIKLEY
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 08Z TONIGHT. S/SE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT VRBL AND GUSTY
NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AS
UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
FROM REMNANTS OF JULIO TO INITIATE DAYTIME HEAT GENERATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LESS NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LIKELY HURRICANE
GUSTAV LESSENS ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK OF GUSTAV MOVING ASHORE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST MONDAY..INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HURRICANE WILL INCREASE HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL ENSUE AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 97 73 96 73 / 10 10 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 95 70 94 70 / 10 10 30 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 73 90 72 / 40 50 50 30 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 91 74 91 74 / 20 20 40 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11/06
000
FXUS64 KMAF 281719
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION AND UPDATED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
DUE TO RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM JULIO ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AS PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG/SOUTH INTERSTATE-10 AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY MAY AID IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
KFST TERMINAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE TO BE SENT SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF MIDLAND AND FOR LOCALES SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER...
INCLUDING LIKELY POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. DEEP
LAYER TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2
INCHES WILL INTERACT WITH A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TODAY PLUS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 281701 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
DUE TO VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW MVFR
CEILINGS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...BUT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...
WILL LEAVE VCTS AND CB GROUPS IN TO COVER AS CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. 20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 93 71 91 71 90 / 20 20 20 20 10
SAN ANGELO 92 70 89 69 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
JUNCTION 92 71 87 69 90 / 30 20 30 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 281631
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1131 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE TO BE SENT SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF MIDLAND AND FOR LOCALES SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER...
INCLUDING LIKELY POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. DEEP
LAYER TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2
INCHES WILL INTERACT WITH A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TODAY PLUS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
CONTINUED 12Z TEMPO FOR MORNING STRATUS FOR FST... AND ALSO
PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. STORMS COULD AFFECT OTHER TAF
SITES BUT WITH LOWER POPS DID NOT MENTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...FAR WEST TEXAS....AND NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH RICH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA...INCLUDING
THE DAVIS MTNS...MARFA PLATEAU...BIG BEND REGION AND PRESIDIO
VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50-60 PCT COVERAGE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESSER IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN...BUT STILL
INCREASED GRIDDED POPS TO RANGE FROM 20-40 PCT ALONG THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
WILL EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE. WE WILL RE-ISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED...AND A
COOLING TREND IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WE EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
BAJA REGION FRIDAY...AND REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY
INDICATED ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT
TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF THESE LOCATIONS RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. MONDAY...WITH INCREASED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
KEEPING 20-30 PCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST BOTH DAYS. THESE MAY BE INCREASED LATER IN TIME. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS SUCH...
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WE GENERALLY KEPT MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 86 68 86 68 / 20 20 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 87 66 83 67 / 30 30 40 30
DRYDEN TX 85 68 81 70 / 50 40 50 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 84 67 81 70 / 40 30 40 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 80 59 77 64 / 40 40 50 30
HOBBS NM 88 65 83 66 / 30 20 30 30
MARFA TX 77 60 74 58 / 60 40 50 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 87 68 85 69 / 30 20 30 30
ODESSA TX 87 68 85 69 / 30 20 30 30
WINK TX 91 70 87 71 / 30 30 40 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
01/67/78
000
FXUS64 KFWD 281630 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED CU AND SOME CIRRUS.
MORNING SOUNDING LOOKS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL SLOW DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...SO DON`T EXPECT ANY WIND SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY.
.79...
&&
.UPDATE...
1006 AM
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPANDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS. NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HANG UP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP
TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF.
ONLY OTHER MINOR TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO IN THE NORTHEAST AND WEST/NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE ADJUSTED FOR
CURRENT TRENDS.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5-10
KT. SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR 6000 FT ARE LIKELY TODAY...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP DUE TO VERY LOW COVERAGE. TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. WAS A LITTLE SURPRISED AT
THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS YESTERDAY...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TODAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND RIDGING PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THINK
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF GUSTAV AS LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOWING MORE OF A CONSENSUS TOWARD A LOUISIANA LANDFALL. THIS
COULD MEAN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY MIDWEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS TRACK ERRORS FIVE
DAYS OUT ARE QUITE HIGH.
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 98 76 98 77 97 / 10 5 10 10 20
WACO, TX 96 74 96 74 95 / 20 10 20 20 20
PARIS, TX 93 71 94 71 92 / 10 5 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 97 72 97 73 96 / 10 5 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 97 72 96 72 95 / 10 5 10 20 20
DALLAS, TX 97 75 97 75 96 / 10 5 10 10 20
TERRELL, TX 97 73 96 72 95 / 10 5 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 96 73 96 73 95 / 20 5 10 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 96 74 96 73 96 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/82
000
FXUS64 KFWD 281506 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1006 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPANDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS. NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HANG UP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP
TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF.
ONLY OTHER MINOR TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO IN THE NORTHEAST AND WEST/NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE ADJUSTED FOR
CURRENT TRENDS.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5-10
KT. SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR 6000 FT ARE LIKELY TODAY...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP DUE TO VERY LOW COVERAGE. TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. WAS A LITTLE SURPRISED AT
THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS YESTERDAY...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TODAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND RIDGING PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THINK
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF GUSTAV AS LASTEST MODEL RUNS
SHOWING MORE OF A CONSENSUS TOWARD A LOUISIANA LANDFALL. THIS
COULD MEAN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY MIDWEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS TRACK ERRORS FIVE
DAYS OUT ARE QUITE HIGH.
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 98 76 98 77 97 / 10 5 10 10 20
WACO, TX 96 74 96 74 95 / 20 10 20 20 20
PARIS, TX 93 71 94 71 92 / 10 5 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 97 72 97 73 96 / 10 5 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 97 72 96 72 95 / 10 5 10 20 20
DALLAS, TX 97 75 97 75 96 / 10 5 10 10 20
TERRELL, TX 97 73 96 72 95 / 10 5 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 96 73 96 73 95 / 20 5 10 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 96 74 96 73 96 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/82
000
FXUS64 KBRO 281457
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
957 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NORTH OF TAMPICO THIS MORNING. RUC80 1000MB-500MB
WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TODAY NORTHWARD
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW TWO INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC80 500MB
HEIGHT/WIND ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TX...BELIEVE THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...OUTFLOW FROM SEABREEZE CONVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER RGV
AIRPORTS. ONCE AGAIN SCT CONV WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS AND VSBYS AROUND THE LOWER RGV MAINLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME TEMPO
REMARKS IN THE CURRENT TAF SET.
&&
.MARINE...AT 8AM BUOY020 REPORTED A SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND AT 8 KNOTS
WITH A WAVE HEIGHT OF 3 FT. MTRPIL ALSO HAD A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND
AT 6 KNOTS. BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE LONG
TERM...THE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FINAL
TRACK OF GUSTAV. SEAS HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT UP IN THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBLE UPCOMING CHANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
H5 RIDGING IS OVERHEAD IN THE WEST GULF AND EAST TEXAS...AND THIS
5880 METER AXIS WILL PERSIST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1013 MB HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE NORTH GULF...WITH LOWER PRESSURE... 1008 MB...IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF HERE TO
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. VORT ENERGY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MEXICO COMING OFF THE SIERRA MADRES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE NORTH MEXICAN GULF COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND MEXICO TODAY WILL BUILD INTO
TSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL PENETRATE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE SHORT TERM TRENDS AND MODEL INPUT...HAVE
KEPT RAIN PROBS IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL ALSO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE FORECAST. THE
GFS SUGGESTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN FOR THE MID AND UPPER
VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MEASURED IN INCHES.
THIS PATTERN IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH ON FRIDAY...AND
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EVEN FORECAST TO BE HIGHER THAN TODAY...AT
CLOSE TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGAIN PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN INCHES. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL
CONVECTION...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING FLOODING AS OPPOSED TO
SEVERE WEATHER. SAME THING EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UPDATED THE WINDS AND SCRUTINIZED POPS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MADE SOME MINOR POPS CHANGES BASED ON UPDATED MODEL DATA...BUT
OVERALL THE NEW FORECAST IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR AS WELL...NEAR NORMAL AND
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKY COVER WAS ALSO
UPDATED AND SHOWS CONTINUED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY DUE TO
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE.
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE HIS PRESENCE KNOWN IN THE
GULF BY SATURDAY UPON APPROACHING THE GATES OF THE GULF...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL/WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ABSENT GUSTAV...AS FORECAST BY
ONE MODEL...THE GFS...LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK SHOULD TAKE
ON MORE SEASONAL ATTRIBUTES...I.E. DRIER...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID...THE ULTIMATE
TRACK OF GUSTAV WILL BE THE FINAL ARBITER FOR WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008...CONVECTION
HAS ENDED NOW...AS TSTMS WITH HVY RAINS DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY THE
HIDALGO AND KENEDY/CAMERON/WILLACY COUNTY LINES. FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL WAS RECEIVED JUST WEST OF A LA FERIA...YTURRIA...NORIAS
LINE EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN KENEDY AND ADJ HIDALGO COUNTIES. MDLS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING POPS LOW OVERNIGHT...HOLDING SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. DECREASED 1ST PD POPS TO 10
PERCENT. NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.
MARINE...BUOY020 AND MTRPIL BOTH INDICATE A LIGHT SE WIND BLOWING
ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OFFSHORE SWELLS
AROUND 2 FT. A LIGHT PGF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IN
THE SHORT TERM IN THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE FINAL TRACK OF
GUSTAV. WILL RAISE UP SEAS A BIT IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD IN
ANTICIPATION OF GUSTAV MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX ON
SUN.
AVIATION...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER RGV
AIRPORTS. ONCE AGAIN SCT CONV WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS AND VSBYS AROUND THE LOWER RGV MAINLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME TEMPO
REMARKS IN THE CURRENT TAF SET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 79 89 78 / 40 20 60 30
BROWNSVILLE 91 78 91 77 / 40 20 60 30
HARLINGEN 92 77 91 75 / 40 20 60 30
MCALLEN 92 77 91 76 / 40 20 60 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 75 92 75 / 40 20 60 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 79 88 79 / 30 20 60 30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
PUBLIC/GRIDS...61
AVIATION/MARINE...59/57
MESO/FXC...CAMPBELL
000
FXUS64 KCRP 281453
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
953 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING AND SOUNDER IMAGERY DATA
INDICATE AN UNCAPPED DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA. THE WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE MID/UPR LOW SPINNING
JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND RGN. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WL PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVE. FURTHER EAST...CONVECTION WL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE CURRENT POPS HANDLED THIS WELL AND
ONLY REQUIRED SOME MINOR CHANGES. RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY OUT WEST
AS CONVECTION WL NOT GET GOING UNTIL THIS AFTN. WK ONSHORE FLOW
AND RELATIVELY FLAT SEAS WL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 77 91 74 92 / 30 10 40 20 30
VICTORIA 94 73 93 72 93 / 20 10 30 30 30
LAREDO 92 77 90 76 96 / 50 40 50 40 40
ALICE 92 74 92 73 93 / 40 20 40 30 30
ROCKPORT 90 79 91 78 92 / 20 10 30 20 30
COTULLA 93 74 91 72 94 / 40 30 40 40 40
KINGSVILLE 92 76 91 74 92 / 30 10 40 20 30
NAVY CORPUS 90 78 89 77 91 / 30 10 30 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB
000
FXUS64 KHGX 281451
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
951 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAT UP. ONCE WE
REACH 90-91 WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE. DO NOT PLAN TO
REISSUE CURRENT PACKAGE AS IT HAS IT WELL COVERED.
45/37
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
W/V IMAGERY...ALONG WITH 00Z 850-200MB RAOBS...SHOWING THE SIGNS
OF RIDGING BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD OVER TEXAS. HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FLORIDA WILL MERGE OVER THE LONE STAR
THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLAY. CLEAR THU-FRI AM SKIES PROVIDE AMPLE SUN TO BEGIN EARLY WORK
ON A SIMILAR AIR MASS (AROUND 1.8 PWATS WITH CONV TEMPS IN LOW
90S) WHICH WILL PROVIDE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF APPROX 30-40% OF
CWA EXPERIENCING SCT AFTERNOON SHWRS/ISO STORMS. SLIGHTLY DRIER
NORTHERLY AIR WORKING ITS WAY DOWN OVER SE TX LOOKS TO PROVIDE
MORE OF A PHOTOGENIC VIEW OF THOSE VARIOUS VICINITY TCU/CBS THAT
BUILD DURING THAT MID-LATE AFTERNOON HEAT.
AS TS GUSTAV SLOWLY CHURNS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GOES THROUGH HIS
LATEST NORTHERLY CONVECTIVE BURST BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...IT
WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF SOUTHERN US RIDGING THAT DETERMINES WHERE
THIS CYCLONE MAKES HIS NEAR-LABOR DAY LANDFALL. 06Z MODEL ENSEMBLE
NOT BECOMING ANY TIGHTER...QUITE THE `FAN` FROM THE NAM`S DUE WESTERN
YUCATAN TRACK TO THE BAMD`S CURVATURE UP TO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW ON GUSTAV`S 48
HOUR EVOLUTION. ALTHOUGH RECENT FLIGHTS IN THE STORM HAVE REVEALED
THAT GUSTAV`S CENTER IS TRYING TO FORM FURTHER SOUTH WITH MINOR
STRENGTHENING...THERE HASN`T BEEN THAT BETTER DEFINED CENTER-OF
CIRCULATION FOR MODELS TO LATCH ON TO AND THIS EXPLAINS THIS HIGHLY
VARIANT OUTPUT. A WAITING GAME UPON HOW MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN
RIDGING WILL BECOME AND WHETHER GUSTAV CAN REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...OVER
A WEAKER SHEAR ZONE AND THOSE DEEPER WARMER WATERS. HAVE KEEP CHANCE
POPS OVER THE EASTERN FA FROM MONDAY ON IN FOLLOWING THE MAJORITY
OF PROGS/NHC`S FORECAST OF AN EVENTUAL LA LANDFALL...BUT UNTIL
WHATEVER BECOMES OF GUSTAV MAKES IT NEAR THE 86.0 W MERIDIAN...ALL
BETS ARE ON HOLD CONCERNING HIS IMPACT ON SE TX. 31
MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS THRU THE WEEKEND. IF GUSTAV EMERGES IN
THE SCNTL GULF AS FCSTED...WE SHOULD START SEEING SOME HIGHER PERIOD
(BUT LOW END) SWELLS START ROLLING IN LATE SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT...WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE STORM.
WILL KEEP EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST AS IS BY SLOWLY BRINGING SEAS
UP THRU THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEAVING SOME WIGGLE ROOM FOR CHANGES
UPWARD/DOWNWARD AS THEY BECOME NECESSARY AND CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
47
AVIATION...
PATCHY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 90S TODAY...SO WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME ISO/SCT STORMS
DURING THE MID & LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 75 95 75 95 / 30 30 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 94 75 93 / 30 30 30 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 79 91 79 90 / 20 20 30 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KEWX 281205
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPAWN MOSTLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER FOCUS OVER THE WEST, AFFECTING DRT.
MORNING IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z WITH BRIEF DIPS IN
VSBY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. PERSISTENCE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN NRN MEXICO UPPER
DISTURBANCE STUCK BENEATH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE. LOW CIGS WILL LIKLEY
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 08Z TONIGHT. S/SE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT VRBL AND GUSTY
NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AS
UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
FROM REMNANTS OF JULIO TO INITIATE DAYTIME HEAT GENERATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LESS NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LIKELY HURRICANE
GUSTAV LESSENS ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK OF GUSTAV MOVING ASHORE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST MONDAY..INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HURRICANE WILL INCREASE HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL ENSUE AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 74 97 73 96 / 10 10 10 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 72 95 70 94 / 10 10 10 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 89 73 90 / 50 40 50 50 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 40 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/18
000
FXUS64 KCRP 281138 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z
ALONG A VCT-BEA-ALI LINE. STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY PROVIDING GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS BUT COULD SEE
IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 15Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER
SOUTH TEXAS GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF NQI-BEA LINE UNTIL 16-17Z.
AFTER 17Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT EXCEPT WITHIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS
WILL EXIST. EXPECT STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG/MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND AREAS FROM VCT-BEA-ALI
BEFORE DAYBREAK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST RUC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER COAHUILA. GFS/NAM KEEP THIS FEATURE
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGER SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MAINTAINING
THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GOES SOUNDER PWAT IMAGE SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF THAT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY
INTO VICTORIA CROSSROADS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND BRO SHOWED
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WHICH
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON. THIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND GULF WATERS TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AREAS WEST OF STATE
HIGHWAY 281 SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SCT EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION WITH ISOLD COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COAST
WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE DURING MID TO LATE
EVENING OUT WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MOISTURE AXIS/THETA-E RIDGE DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW A TREND OF
MIGRATING WESTWARD INTO MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CWA WITH POPS STRATIFIED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS ACCOUNTING FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE. MOISTURE AXIS DOES GET
SHUNTED FURTHER WEST INTO OLD MEXICO ON SUNDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE VERTICAL PROFILE DECREASING. WITH THIS SAID...ONLY ISOLD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL TRACK OF GUSTAV WILL BE A FOCUS AND PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REGION DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK
PROGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND TRACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AGAIN...IF THE PROGNOSTICATED TRACK IS TO COME FRUITION...OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DRYING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WITH OUR
AREA BEING ON THE SUBSISENT WEST SIDE OF GUSTAV. WILL CONTINUE TO
DEFER TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE
WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE...TEMPS SHOULD TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT RULE OUT MAXIMUMS OF
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO A
SLIGHTLY LARGER NOCTURNAL SWING SHOULD OCCUR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS
WITH THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION LEADING TO
"RELATIVELY" COOLER NIGHTS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY WILL CONTINUE
TO CHANGE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MODIFIES. SWELLS WILL LIKELY ALSO
BEGIN IMPACTING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 77 91 74 92 / 30 10 40 20 30
VICTORIA 93 73 93 72 93 / 20 10 30 30 30
LAREDO 89 77 90 76 96 / 50 40 50 40 40
ALICE 92 74 92 73 93 / 40 20 40 30 30
ROCKPORT 90 79 91 78 92 / 30 10 30 20 30
COTULLA 91 74 91 72 94 / 40 30 40 40 40
KINGSVILLE 92 76 91 74 92 / 30 10 40 20 30
NAVY CORPUS 90 78 89 77 91 / 30 10 30 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TT/89...SHORT TERM
SC/70...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 281133
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5-10
KT. SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR 6000 FT ARE LIKELY TODAY...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP DUE TO VERY LOW COVERAGE. TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. WAS A LITTLE SURPRISED AT
THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS YESTERDAY...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TODAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND RIDGING PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THINK
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF GUSTAV AS LASTEST MODEL RUNS
SHOWING MORE OF A CONSENSUS TOWARD A LOUISIANA LANDFALL. THIS
COULD MEAN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY MIDWEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS TRACK ERRORS FIVE
DAYS OUT ARE QUITE HIGH.
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 98 76 98 77 97 / 10 5 10 10 20
WACO, TX 96 74 96 74 95 / 10 10 20 20 20
PARIS, TX 94 71 94 71 92 / 10 5 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 97 72 97 73 96 / 10 5 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 97 72 96 72 95 / 10 5 10 20 20
DALLAS, TX 97 75 97 75 96 / 10 5 10 10 20
TERRELL, TX 97 73 96 72 95 / 10 5 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 96 73 96 73 95 / 10 5 10 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 96 74 96 73 96 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/91
000
FXUS64 KMAF 281125
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
CONTINUED 12Z TEMPO FOR MORNING STRATUS FOR FST... AND ALSO
PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. STORMS COULD AFFECT OTHER TAF
SITES BUT WITH LOWER POPS DID NOT MENTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...FAR WEST TEXAS....AND NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH RICH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA...INCLUDING
THE DAVIS MTNS...MARFA PLATEAU...BIG BEND REGION AND PRESIDIO
VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50-60 PCT COVERAGE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESSER IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN...BUT STILL
INCREASED GRIDDED POPS TO RANGE FROM 20-40 PCT ALONG THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
WILL EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE. WE WILL RE-ISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED...AND A
COOLING TREND IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WE EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
BAJA REGION FRIDAY...AND REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY
INDICATED ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT
TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF THESE LOCATIONS RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. MONDAY...WITH INCREASED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
KEEPING 20-30 PCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST BOTH DAYS. THESE MAY BE INCREASED LATER IN TIME. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS SUCH...
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WE GENERALLY KEPT MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 281114
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SWEETWATER TO
BROWNWOOD LINE. LCL MVFR CIGS BKN010-020 ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 28/16Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 28/16Z. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 93 71 91 71 90 / 20 20 20 20 10
SAN ANGELO 92 70 89 69 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
JUNCTION 92 71 87 69 90 / 30 20 30 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KAMA 281111 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
611 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION
AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED
MENTION OF CB AT KDHT AND KGUY. HOWEVER...UNDER ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KAMA...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WELL
NORTH OF THE CITY. KAMA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OK AND
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES TODAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL TO NEAR A CANADIAN
TX TO NARA VISA NM LINE BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT THEN IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. PLAN ON LEAVING POP GRIDS ALONE TODAY...BUT WILL ADJUST
CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT TO INCLUDE ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WILL
INCLUDE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AND ALL | 
