000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170549
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI MAY 16 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 170456
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED AS THE WAVE MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 11N MOVING W
10-15 KT. NO WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N13W 6N20W 6N28W 1N39W 6N50W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER THE IVORY
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-8W ALONG THE BORDER OF LIBERIA AND
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 8N32W TO 2N47W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-29W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A MODERATE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SE US COAST THROUGH A
WEAK 1012 MB LOW OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEAKENING AS IT
ENTERS THE GULF EXTENDING SW INTO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND THUS THE SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS WELL N OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY A A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND COVER THE W ATLC
AS WELL. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NW OVER MEXICO CITY
THEN N TO MONTERREY. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE BEING DRAWN OVER THE W GULF BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITHIN
75 NM OF THE COASTLINE THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO TEXAS NEAR
HOUSTON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CLOUD FREE. HOWEVER...SMOKE COVERS
THE E GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A RESULT OF EARLIER FIRES OVER
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...S HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA TO NEAR 18N80W.
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND THUS HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN
S OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA ALONG N COLOMBIA AND THE ABC
ISLANDS THEN NE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST S OF GUADELOUPE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N64W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN 43W-55W AND THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N48W TO 22N55W
BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING TO OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF
THE FRONT AND ARE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVELS FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 44W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC N OF 12N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N33W AND THUS FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT ARE PRESENT.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170317
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
05N78W 07N89W 10N99W 09N107W 10N113W 09N119W 08N125W 05N135W
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND WITHIN A
30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 9N120W...8N123W...AND 7N128W...AND WITHIN
A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 250 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 6N77W 10N101W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 125 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N101W 10N112W 09N120W 07N131W 04N135W 05N138W.
...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHERN MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N107W TO 19N110W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM WEST OF THE MEXICO COAST.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH AND EAST OF
20N105W 20N115W 25N123W BEYOND 32N128W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N137W TO
A 24N137W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 18N138W BEYOND 16N142W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 20N EAST OF 140W. SOME OF THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE 24N137W
16N142W TROUGH IS BEING PUSHED TO THE NORTH INTO THE AREA NORTH
OF 20N EAST OF 140W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
NEAR 15N93W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BEYOND
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS OF 8N77W...POSSIBLY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N101W 08N105W 05N106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ARE NEAR THE TROUGH.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N120W 06N124W.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
$$
MT
000
AXNT20 KNHC 162350
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
7N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM W AND 180 NM E
OF THE AXIS S OF 8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
ALSO CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING FRENCH GUIANA. THIS WAVE IS
DISORGANIZED WITH THE AXIS IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 11N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS S OF 8N.
AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA ALONG
76W/77W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON
THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT
MAY BE ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER.
..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N27W 5N32W 2N42W 4N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 35W-45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE GULF
THIS EVENING. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK
1013 MB LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MS/LA COAST TO THE
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N98W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH RUNS FROM 25N92W
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AN ISOLATED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS AN
SQUALL LINE MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER N FLORIDA AND SE
GEORGIA WHILE LIGHTNING DATA REVEALS ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE SFC
LOW. LITTLE CHANGE HAS EXPERIENCED THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH/LOW IS OVER NW MEXICO. SWLY AND THEN WLY WINDS BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC
RIDGING IS HANGING ON WITH ITS ASSOCIATED S TO SW FLOW PROVIDING
A WARM AND HUMID DAY OVER FLORIDA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS SE THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS TO NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE IS GENERATING ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS
PERSIST OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE WINDS SPEED CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS
EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT IS PRODUCING FAIRLY
MODEST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE GFS
COMPUTER MODEL...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO
JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEMS DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
COLD FRONT IN BETWEEN. FROM WEST TO EAST...A 1019 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N68W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 31N49W THE CONTINUE SW TO TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM
E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED SW OF THE AZORES
NEAR 35N36W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E-CENTRAL ATLC. AN E-W
TROUGH IA ANALYZED ON THE 18 Z MAP ALONG 27N/28N BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND 27W. A BROKEN BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHALLOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS...MORE OF
THE SAME...AN ELONGATED RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 10N REMAINS
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
$$
GR
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162328
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 16 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 16 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.
...ITCZ...
06N77W 05N81W 10N98W 09N107W 10N114W 09N119W 05N134W 04N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 11N94W...07N123W...AND 08N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 12N102W 12N110W 10N119W 05N128W 05N134W. WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM 04N TO 13N EAST OF 93W.
...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHERN MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N107W TO 20N109W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE MEXICO COAST. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH AND EAST OF 20N106W
20N118W BEYOND 32N128W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N137W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 18N138W BEYOND 16N142W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 20N EAST OF 140W. SOME OF THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE 24N137W
16N142W TROUGH IS BEING PUSHED TO THE NORTH INTO THE AREA NORTH
OF 20N EAST OF 140W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
14N93W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BEYOND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N101W 09N105W 05N106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ARE NEAR THE TROUGH.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N120W 08N122W 05N123W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 07N123W AND 08N125W.
$$
MT
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161741
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE
REMAINS BROAD IN ITS CLOUD AND MOISTURE STRUCTURE...AS SEEN IN
THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. THE AXIS IS PLACED ALONG AN AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND OVERALL PEAK IN THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD MASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W AND
180 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 8N.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR FRENCH
GUIANA ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
DISORGANIZED WITH THE AXIS ALONG THE W EDGE OF ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOUD FIELD...DUE TO ELY SHEAR. VIS IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
LOW-LEVEL TURNING CONCENTRATED NEAR 7N. SHOWER AND TSTMS HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS.
AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 76W S OF 12N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT MAY BE
ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER N COLOMBIA. NO OTHER
AVAILABLE DATA PROVIDES GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
WAVE...SO IT IS MAINLY BASED ON THE TPW ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATION.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 6N20W 5N30W 2N40W 5N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 11W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS TRACKING SE ACROSS THE GULF ANALYZED FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. SFC OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 25N92W
TO 18N94W. LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIB AND E GULF...IS
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE
FROM N FLORIDA TO THE W PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
30N83W 19N96W. SAT IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL AN
ENHANCEMENT OR DEEPENING ACTIVITY NEAR 27N93.5W. N TO NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS ADVECTING A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION...BUT IT REMAINS MOIST DUE TO THE ACTIVITY PRODUCED BY
THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC RIDGING IS
HANGING ON WITH ITS ASSOCIATED S TO SW FLOW PROVIDING A WARM AND
HUMID DAY OVER FLORIDA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS SE THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BUT THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS
REMNANTS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND LIKELY OVER S
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
APPROACHING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING W WITHIN THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOME
BY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER BENEATH A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SPRAWLING MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST S OF
CUBA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIB. A QSCAT PASS AROUND
11Z SHOWED 20 KT TRADES CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL PORTION ROUGHLY
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WINDS ARE
LIKELY IN THE ENHANCED REGION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW REGIME OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE N ATLC MUCH OF THIS
WEEK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOING
THE SAME...ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N49W TO 22N57W THEN
STATIONARY TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING
SE BEHIND THE FRONT...ANALYZED 1020 MB NEAR 28N69W. STRONG SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM. A 1025
MB HIGH DOMINATES THE SFC PATTERN E OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR
32N37W. THE ONLY INTERRUPTION IN THE SUBTROPICS IS AN E-W TROUGH
LINE ALONG 27N/28N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 27W. THIS
BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHALLOW
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
LIES OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CONFLUENCE PROVIDING
A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM 12N-26N E OF 30W.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161716
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161526
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 16 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 10N177W TO 06N124W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 130W.
...DISCUSSION...
...SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO CUTOFF LOWS...ONE OVER NW MEXICO AND
THE OTHER NEAR 23N138W...ARE SEPARATED BY A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N118W TO 30N124W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ROUNDING THE SECOND LOW BUT UNLIKELY NEAR THE
FIRST LOW AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
...TROPICAL PACIFIC...
TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE NEAR 13N117W AND THE OTHER JUST E
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
11N120W TO 06N123W...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF
130W.
$$
BELL/BERG
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161204
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161152
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED
BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 7N21W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 4N-8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A FAIR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
NORTH ALONG 49W SUPPORTING THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.
AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W OVER N COLOMBIA S
OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC
TPW ANIMATION N OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE
OF THIS WAVE THAT IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS
N COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...NO OTHER AVAILABLE DATA CAN CURRENTLY
CONFIRM OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE ESPECIALLY AS IT
MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF W COLOMBIA. FOR THE TIME
BEING...THE WAVE HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD IN ORDER TO KEEP
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MOTION.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N20W 6N27W 3N31W 2N36W 4N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 2N10W TO 3N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N19W TO 3N25W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS INTO
THE W GULF. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS SUPPORTS COLD
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE GULF NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF INLAND S OF BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 26N94W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO AND IS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WELL. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY
15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE W ATLC
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER E OF 85W. THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN
THE NW GULF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR
27N86W BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND S HISPANIOLA WHERE IT IS PRODUCING BROKEN
LOW/MID CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. FRESH TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS W ATLC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 54W N OF 20N OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W THROUGH 25N52W TO S OF SAINT CROIX.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS PRODUCING A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 29N71W IS BEHIND THE FRONT
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS
HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESE OVER THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
1023 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N38W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN
ELONGATED RIDGE REMAINS BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH AXIS ALONG 10N ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161129
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160951
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 16 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 04N85W TO 08N95W TO 10N120W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N77W TO 12N103W TO
07N113W TO 08N126W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 22N138W WITH ITS ENVELOPE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10N TO 28N
W OF 130W. AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DISSECTS N AMERICA FROM NE
TO SW AND ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT
32N109W.
THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AND
CONTINUES S TO A BASE NEAR 16N108W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS
NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH...ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
LINE 21N106W TO 32N124W.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 13N115W WITH A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 25N125W AND EFFECTIVELY
SEPARATES THE UPPER CYCLONES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
SPREADING FROM 5N TO 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 133W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 09N78W TO NEAR 17N102W.
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 110W IS ENHANCED AND THE
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
BUT APPEARS TO EVAPORATE IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN.
$$
NELSON
000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
17W AND 23W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR
8N21W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 3N-8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A FAIR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
NORTH ALONG 49W SUPPORTING THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.
AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER W VENEZUELA/E COLOMBIA
WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT IS ENHANCING SOME
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...NO OTHER
AVAILABLE DATA CAN CURRENTLY CONFIRM OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF
THIS FEATURE. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE WAVE WILL BE EXTRAPOLATED
WESTWARD IN HOPES THAT MORNING DATA WILL SHED SOME LIGHT ON ITS
EXISTENCE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N15W 8N21W 4N29W 2N35W 5N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY OFF THE
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA COAST FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 9W-13W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30W-33W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS W CUBA CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS INTO THE W
GULF. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS SUPPORTS COLD FRONT
WHICH ENTERS THE GULF NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF INLAND S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF W OF 92W
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N92W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN
THE W ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
E GULF IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER E OF 90W. THE FRONT CURRENTLY
IN THE NW GULF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR
27N86W BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS WELL
DEFINED ACROSS S HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA WHERE IT IS PRODUCING
BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS PRODUCING MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE PANAMA COAST
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ. ELSEWHERE FRESH
TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND AS W ATLC RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 59W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
THIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N49W THROUGH 25N53W TO S OF SAINT CROIX. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT IS PRODUCING A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 30N73W IS BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ESE OVER THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 32N37W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PRODUCING SLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT
WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION
AREA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN ELONGATED RIDGE REMAINS BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS ALONG 9N ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160524
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2008 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALMA AL- MAH MARIE
BORIS NORBERT
CRISTINA ODILE OH DEAL-
DOUGLAS POLO
ELIDA ELL- EE DAH RACHEL
FAUSTO FOW- STO SIMON
GENEVIEVE TRUDY
HERNAN HER NAHN- VANCE
ISELLE EE SELL- WINNIE
JULIO HOO- LEE O XAVIER ZAY- VIER
KARINA YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LOWELL ZEKE
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR 2008 THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN CHANGED...TO 5 AM...11
AM...5 PM AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME ON
NOVEMBER 2...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND
10 PM PST.
A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STATEMENT...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WOPZ41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAEP.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT BEGINNING IN 2008...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE NOW
ISSUED WITH EVERY EAST PACIFIC ADVISORY PACKAGE.
AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A
BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN
LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE
FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160323
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 16 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 05N85W TO 08N97W TO
07N104W TO 09N115W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 110W TO 115W.
...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO SW TO S OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N110W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
IS LOCATED NEAR 23N139W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF THIS LOW IS
SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 124W TO AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WELL N OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH
EMANATING FROM THE SW US WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO W/CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY BUT THEN
BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32138W SW TO
20N128W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FURTHER REDUCING THE TRADE WINDS.
TROPICAL PACIFIC...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONNECTS TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE NEAR
13N118W AND THE OTHER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE AREA
E OF 130W. THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 12N116W TO 05N122W
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N116W TO 06N125W.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 152345
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR
9N18W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IS PRETTY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
7N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS S OF 8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.
THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA/EASTERN
COLOMBIA WITH IT AXIS ALONG 71W/72W. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE
ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE
GUAJIRA PENINSULA CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT IS
ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N23W 5N26W 3N36W 5N47W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA. THE REST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE...BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. A COASTAL TROUGH IS ON THE 21Z MAP EXTENDING
FROM 27N96W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N91W TO BAY OF CAMPECHE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF REGION AND THE
STATE OF FLORIDA WHILE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
CONUS AND MEXICO. SWLY AND THEN WLY WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS WELL
DEFINED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA WHERE IT IS PRODUCING
BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS PRETTY QUIET DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS PRODUCING MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A PLUME OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ. WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA
COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
FAIRLY MODEST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE BASIN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 33N56W TO HISPANIOLA.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS PRODUCING A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A 1022 MB
HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 31N75W IS BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ESE OVER THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1024
MB SFC HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N40W. THE TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PRODUCING SLY WINDS OF
20-30 KT WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES DE
DISCUSSION AREA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN ELONGATED RIDGE
REMAINS BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
GR
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152343
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2008 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALMA AL- MAH MARIE
BORIS NORBERT
CRISTINA ODILE OH DEAL-
DOUGLAS POLO
ELIDA ELL- EE DAH RACHEL
FAUSTO FOW- STO SIMON
GENEVIEVE TRUDY
HERNAN HER NAHN- VANCE
ISELLE EE SELL- WINNIE
JULIO HOO- LEE O XAVIER ZAY- VIER
KARINA YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LOWELL ZEKE
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR 2008 THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN CHANGED...TO 5 AM...11
AM...5 PM AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME ON
NOVEMBER 2...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND
10 PM PST.
A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STATEMENT...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WOPZ41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAEP.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT BEGINNING IN 2008...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE NOW
ISSUED WITH EVERY EAST PACIFIC ADVISORY PACKAGE.
AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A
BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN
LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE
FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152148
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 09N90W TO 07N102W TO
09N114W TO 04N126W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN
96W AND 107W.
...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO SW TO S OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
23N140W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING A BROAD
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 123W TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WELL N
OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SW US WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO
W/CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEAR
STATIONARY BU T THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32136W SW TO 20N121W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FURTHER REDUCING THE
TRADE WINDS.
TROPICAL PACIFIC...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONNECTING TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE
NEAR 12N122W AND THE OTHER JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND COVERING THE AREA E OF 130W. THE EASTERN
UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 12N115W TO 05N121W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
03N111W TO 06N118W. THE ASCAT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED
A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 05N89W FORCING THE ITCZ AXIS
NWD. THIS IN TURN IS GENERATING FRESH WINDS THE AREA OF THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.
$$
WALLACE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151738
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2008 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALMA AL- MAH MARIE
BORIS NORBERT
CRISTINA ODILE OH DEAL-
DOUGLAS POLO
ELIDA ELL- EE DAH RACHEL
FAUSTO FOW- STO SIMON
GENEVIEVE TRUDY
HERNAN HER NAHN- VANCE
ISELLE EE SELL- WINNIE
JULIO HOO- LEE O XAVIER ZAY- VIER
KARINA YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LOWELL ZEKE
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR 2008 THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN CHANGED...TO 5 AM...11
AM...5 PM AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME ON
NOVEMBER 2...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND
10 PM PST.
A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STATEMENT...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WOPZ41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAEP.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT BEGINNING IN 2008...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE NOW
ISSUED WITH EVERY EAST PACIFIC ADVISORY PACKAGE.
AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A
BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN
LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE
FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151725
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS MORE DISORGANIZED TODAY AS VISIBLE IMAGES ONLY INDICATE
A FAINT BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. THE AXIS IS
PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THE BROAD STRUCTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS ALONG 47W S
OF 11N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
TRACEABLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION...BUT WAS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...
TODAY THE WAVE IS MORE DEFINED WITH VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE FIELD SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 6N...
ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W ALONG 71W S OF 13N
MOVING W 15 KT. THIS POSITION ADJUSTMENT WAS BASED ON A FAINT
MOISTURE PLUME...EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION...TRACKING W
ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. REGARDLESS OF THE
LOCATION...THE WAVE IS WEAK AND IS NOT MUCH OF A WEATHER PLAYER
AT THE MOMENT.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 7N19W 3N24W 3N46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 28W-34W AND BETWEEN 41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 52W-61W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF LIES BETWEEN A 1021 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE W ATLC AND
LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER E TEXAS AND E MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
GULF. A SLIGHT INTERRUPTION IN THIS WIND REGIME IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOUSTON TO
24N97W. ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NW
MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH
SOME LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S. AND N PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE N GULF IS MOVING INLAND...HOWEVER LONG RANGE
DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA IS STILL DETECTING A BROKEN
SQUALL LINE OVER THE AL/MS/LA COASTAL WATERS AND ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-94W. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL DEFINED FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND SAT
IMAGERY REVEALS A 60 NM BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND
OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...VERY TRANQUIL
WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IN LARGE PART
DUE TO A SPRAWLING MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW WATERS
AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TRADE WINDS ARE
FAIRLY MODEST TODAY...DUE TO THE WEAKENED SFC PRES PATTERN
BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES N OF THE AREA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN OCCLUDED 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N53W AND EXTENDS SW TO HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
PRODUCING A 180 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF
THE FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS NARROW TO WITHIN 60-90 NM
E OF THE FRONT S OF 23N TO HISPANIOLA. WEAK HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING SE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N39W. THE
TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
IS PRODUCING SLY 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
DOMINATES. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CLIPS THE
NE PORTION FROM FROM JUST E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 30N20W TO
31N27W. ONLY A BROKEN NARROW LINE OF LOW CLOUDS MARK THE
BOUNDARY.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151558
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 10N91W TO 10N108W TO
04N123W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N
TO 11N E OF 110W.
...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW NEW MEXICO SW TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN EXTENDS WNW AS A SHEAR
AXIS. A CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 22N140W AT THIS TIME.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ALONG 125W TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER N OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND WEST CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETREAT FURTHER S
THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH SWINGS FURTHER TO THE EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 30136W SW TO 19N151W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REDUCING THE TRADE WINDS W
OF 125W.
TROPICAL PACIFIC...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONNECTING TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE
NEAR 12N118W AND THE OTHER JUST E OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...COVERS THE AREA E OF 130W. E OF 110W THE UPPER RIDGE
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGH S OF 13N AND CENTERED ALONG 117W IS ALSO SPAWNING
CONVECTION.
PLEASE NOTE...TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH RUNS UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. BASED ON DATA
FROM 1971-2005...15-16 NAMED STORMS FORM ON AVERAGE...9 OF WHICH
BECOME HURRICANES AND 4-5 OF THOSE BECOMING MAJOR HURRICANES
(CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE). BUT PLEASE
REMEMBER THAT THIS HAS NO CORRELATION TO THE NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
THAT MAY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO OR CENTRAL
AMERICA.
$$
BELL/BERG
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151351
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2008
CORRECTED NAMES MARIE AND YOLANDA
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2008 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALMA AL- MAH MARIE
BORIS NORBERT
CRISTINA ODILE OH DEAL-
DOUGLAS POLO
ELIDA ELL- EE DAH RACHEL
FAUSTO FOW- STO SIMON
GENEVIEVE TRUDY
HERNAN HER NAHN- VANCE
ISELLE EE SELL- WINNIE
JULIO HOO- LEE O XAVIER ZAY- VIER
KARINA YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LOWELL ZEKE
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR 2008 THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN CHANGED...TO 5 AM...11
AM...5 PM AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME ON
NOVEMBER 2...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND
10 PM PST.
A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STATEMENT...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WOPZ41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAEP.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT BEGINNING IN 2008...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE NOW
ISSUED WITH EVERY EAST PACIFIC ADVISORY PACKAGE.
AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A
BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN
LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE
FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151141
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN
ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 12N.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL
VENEZUELA WHERE IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
W OF WAVE AXIS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS N CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N19W 5N23W 5N28W EQ39W EQ51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM FROM A
LINE 2N9W 3N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 25W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM FROM A LINE
1N23W TO 3S28W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES BETWEEN A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING
OVER
E TEXAS AND E MEXICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS PRODUCING FAIRLY
UNIFORM 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE NW GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST
BY MID-MORNING. ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. ITS ASSOCIATED FLOW IS TRANSPORTING
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH MEXICO INTO
SE TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE GULF. GIVEN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE NW GULF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE GULF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS E JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN IN LARGE PART DUE TO A LARGE MID-UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
AFFECTING HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRI.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WELL N OF THE AREA OVER
THE N CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR 32N53W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING TO NE OF HISPANIOLA.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A 120-150 NM WIDE BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE FRONT N
OF 25N. SOUTH OF 25N TO HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO
THURSDAY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND IMPLY THAT A COOL AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS
TAKEN HOLD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N40W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING SUPPORTS CENTRAL ATLC
SURFACE HIGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 40W. BROAD TROUGHING WITH
BASE NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
PROVIDE ONLY MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO.
OF NOTE...TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15 NAMED
STORMS FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE
HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE
1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SEASONS
ENDING NOVEMBER 30TH.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151114
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2008 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALMA AL- MAH MARIA
BORIS NORBERT
CRISTINA ODILE OH DEAL-
DOUGLAS POLO
ELIDA ELL- EE DAH RACHEL
FAUSTO FOW- STO SIMON
GENEVIEVE TRUDY
HERNAN HER NAHN- VANCE
ISELLE EE SELL- WINNIE
JULIO HOO- LEE O XAVIER ZAY- VIER
KARINA YOLANDO YO LAHN- DA
LOWELL ZEKE
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR 2008 THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN CHANGED...TO 5 AM...11
AM...5 PM AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME ON
NOVEMBER 2...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND
10 PM PST.
A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STATEMENT...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WOPZ41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAEP.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT BEGINNING IN 2008...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE NOW
ISSUED WITH EVERY EAST PACIFIC ADVISORY PACKAGE.
AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A
BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN
LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE
FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150950
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 07N90W TO 10N98W TO 08N108W TO 09N116W
TO 02N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM OF AXIS E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S
OF ITCZ TO 03N FROM 90W TO 105W.
...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO E PAC ALONG
110W FROM 5N-26N WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 300 NM OF ITS
AXIS. TROUGH SPLITS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TWO
ANTICYCLONES...WEAK ONE NEAR 08N123W PRODUCING SOME DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT RIGHT OVER SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W ALONG THE ITCZ.
SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA NOT ONLY ENHANCES
DIFFLUENT FLOW OF MOISTURE COMING OUT OF SOUTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT...BUT ADVECTS ITS MOIST DEBRIS NE ACROSS BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FEEDING AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN
SQUALLS RESULT IN THE CLASH OF AIR MASSES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY OVER LAND.
AT THE SURFACE...AS 1032 MB RIDGE MOVES FURTHER N...STRONG N
WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHICH EARLIER HAD BUILT LARGE
SWELL TRAINS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.
FRESH TRADES FROM 08N-15N WILL WEAKEN AND SEAS ALSO SUBSIDE
WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.
HEALTHY COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER OF BASIN WITH LOW PRES
CAUSING VERY LARGE SWELLS WHICH EVENTUALLY DRIFT INTO E PAC
WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS AND LAST WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.
PLEASE NOTE...MAY 15 MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON THE LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15
NAMED STORM FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE
HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE
1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC SEASONS ENDING
NOVEMBER 30TH.
$$
WALLY BARNES
000
AXNT20 KNHC 150549
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN
ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR
12N.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10
KT. THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER E
VENEZUELA WHERE IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.
THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS N VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2W 4N9W 5N16W 3N22W 1N32W 7N51W
8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 8W-15W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120-150 NM FROM A LINE 7N22W TO 4S28W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES BETWEEN A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
E TEXAS AND E MEXICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS PRODUCING FAIRLY
UNIFORM 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS
OF N MEXICO AND EXTREME S TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FAR W GULF OVERNIGHT. ALOFT...A
LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FLOW
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH
MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE GULF. GIVEN DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NW GULF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GULF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF JAMAICA...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...VERY TRANQUIL
WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IN LARGE PART DUE TO
A LARGE MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
AFFECTING HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 999 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WELL N OF THE AREA OVER
THE W ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR 32N54W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING JUST N OF HISPANIOLA INTO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF CUBA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
PRODUCING A 120-150 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC AND IMPLY THAT A
COOL AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE
REST OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1026 MB SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING SUPPORTS
CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE HIGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 40W. BROAD
TROUGHING WITH BASE S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND PROVIDE ONLY MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG
AND NW OF COASTAL MOROCCO.
OF NOTE...TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15 NAMED
STORMS FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE
HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE
1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SEASONS
ENDING NOVEMBER 30TH.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150339
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 7N85W 8N97W 7N114W 4N124W
5N140W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N90W TO 4N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.
...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW TEXAS
ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 21N115W COVERING BAJA CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL
MEXICO. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE W N OF 28N W OF
120W TO 140W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE REGION WITH
THE UPPER LOW ENE OF THE HAWAII. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY JUST A LITTLE FARTHER S THEN SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS NWD OVER
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N135W SE TO 20N118W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REDUCING THE
TRADE WINDS W OF 125W.
TROPICAL PACIFIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 105W ANCHORED OVER THE
YUCATAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 115W
ANCHORED NEAR 7N125W. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
BETWEEN THE TWO AND ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO.
THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 4N119W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.
PLEASE NOTE...MAY 15 MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON THE LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15
NAMED STORM FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE
HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE
1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC SEASONS ENDING
NOVEMBER 30TH.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 142345
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ON THE 18Z SFC MAP ALONG 17W/18W
SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PHOTOS AND AN
ASCAT PASS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING NWD TO AROUND 12N. ALSO...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM
INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVE THAT PROBABLY MOVED
OUT OF AFRICA THIS MORNING.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA WHERE IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.
SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS
INDICATE SOME WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THE WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 3N20W 2N40W 6N50W 6N58W.
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-200 NM N OF
AXIS AND W OF 37W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE OVER SW AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REGION LIES BETWEEN A 1022 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER S TEXAS AND EASTERN
MEXICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM 15-20
KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRAGMENTS OF MAINLY LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE GULF. ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FLOW TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS AND
MUCH OF THE GULF. DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS IS HELPING TO
INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLC IS PRODUCING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER HISPANIOLA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN COURTESY OF A LARGE MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIB. THESE
UPPER FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DUE TO UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ...A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AND OVER WESTERN PANAMA. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL
KEEPS MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA ON THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 995 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
31N56W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A 120-140 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR 40N58W TO 26N73W. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTICED BEHIND THE FRONT IMPLY THAT A COOL
AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS INVADE THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. THE
REST OF THE CENTRAL AND THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N37W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE.
OF NOTE...MAY 15 MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15 NAMED
STORM FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE
HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE
1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SEASONS
ENDING NOVEMBER 30TH.
$$
GR
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 14 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N84W 9N100W 7N114W 3N125W
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N
TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 3N TO 10N E OF 95W AND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 99W AND 108W.
...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO
SW TO 23N113W COVERING BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE W N OF 26N FROM 120W TO 136W. A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS W OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW E OF
THE HAWAII NEAR 22N144W. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG FARTHER SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH WILL PULL MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N135W SE
TO 18N116W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REDUCING THE TRADE WINDS W OF 125W.
TROPICAL PACIFIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 105W ANCHORED OVER THE
YUCATAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 112W
ANCHORED NEAR 8N124W. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
BETWEEN THE TWO AND ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO.
THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 11N115W TO 3N199W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.
PLEASE NOTE...MAY 15 MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON THE LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15
NAMED STORM FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE
HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE
1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC SEASONS ENDING
NOVEMBER 30TH.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141732
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A FAINT MOISTURE PEAK TRAVELING
WEST N OF VENEZUELA...AND THIS FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH CONTINUITY.
SYNOPTIC SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER N VENEZUELA AND THE SRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS ARE ABOUT 1-1.5 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAK WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE
MORE LINKED TO THE FRONT NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 2N32W 1N47W 2N52W. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE HAS LIKELY JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
ALONG 16W OR SO...THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE SFC MAP SOON.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN
16W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
35W-45W...WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
23W-31W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 14W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF LIES BETWEEN A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER S TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM 15-20 KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
ONLY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THIS FLOW.
ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FLOW TRANSPORTING CIRRUS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ACTIVE WEATHER LIES N OF THE ZONE OVER E
TEXAS...SE KANSAS AND N LOUISIANA. THIS WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG
A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF
TOMORROW NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ABOUT MIDWAY
OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER S BY LATE SAT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
AND DIFFUSE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
EXTENDS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN
ITS VICINITY. OTHERWISE...VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS THANKS
TO A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE E CARIB. TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS THE S
CARIB...20-25 KT...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS NOTED IN THIS
MORNINGS QSCAT PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NWP MODELS ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SO MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 987 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION ZONE
NEAR 32N55W AND EXTENDS SW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A SWATH
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
23N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 23N.
A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO 27N72W MARKING AN
INCREASE IN NLY WINDS. THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
PRODUCING A SCATTERED AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
SHALLOW SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT.
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A MID TO
UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICS AND BROAD FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING
GENERATED BY THIS PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICS BUT UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. AT
THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS PARKED NEAR 29N37W PRODUCING LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS E OF 50W OR SO AND MAINLY 15-20 KT
NE/E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL PORTION.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141524
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 14 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 09N93W TO 09N110W TO
05N177W TO 03N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W-91W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W-99W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 98W-102W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 115W-120W.
...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AZ SW TO
23N166W THEN WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS BEFORE MERGING WITH A
CUTOFF LOW ENE OF HAWAII. A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE N OF THE AREA
IS BEGINNING TO PUSH THE SHEAR AXIS SWD. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
CORE WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TOWARD THE SRN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR 19N139W AS A RESULT OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
EAST OF THE CUTOFF LOW. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND
DIG FARTHER SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL PULL
MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WEST CENTRAL
MEXICO.
TROPICAL PACIFIC...
A RIDGE CONNECTING TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE JUST E OF THE
YUCATAN AND THE OTHER LOCATED AT 11N125W...DOMINATES MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL BELT. A DEEP-LAYERED INVERTED TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
RIDGE AT ABOUT 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 06N-09N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH AT THE MOMENT.
$$
BELL/BERG
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE GUIANAS REGION...SE VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS E OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N15W 5N20W EQ35W 1N43W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N37W TO 3N45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...
INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MAINLY DRY AND STABLE. AS OF 0900
UTC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE CAROLINAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF N OF 25N ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
RIDGE. A NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMAINS ACROSS THE SE
GULF AND W CUBA. ALOFT...A RIDGE CENTERED OVER BELIZE AND N
GUATEMALA ENVELOPS THE ENTIRE GULF. FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER FEATURE IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF.
ONLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE W GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF LATE
THU.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE E ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW
TO THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC CROSSES THE TURKS
AND CAICOS AND THE N COAST OF E CUBA WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS E CUBA AS FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-79W. THESE SHOWERS
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE BASE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
POSITIONED OVER BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 60W AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED IN THE NW
ATLC NEAR 40N61W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 24N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N67W WSW TO 25N74W. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LOCATED BEHIND THIS TROUGH ARE PROVIDING
NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BROAD ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N36W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS ALONG 8N IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141017
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 14 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 08N83W TO 07N91W TO 11N104W TO 4N112W TO
3N125W TO 05N133W TO 04N138W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 87W-97W AND 101W-117W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 34N108W
TO 32N110W TO 24N115W TO 27N140W. FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS N OF
TROUGH AXIS...BUT ABUNDANT TRPCL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BY 90 KT
JET CORE MEANDERING JUST S OF TROUGH. MOISTURE CONTAINED IN
SWATH TRAPPED BETWEEN TROUGH AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
AT 9N128W HEADS FOR SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NE MEXICO
AND WRN TEXAS FEEDING 1003 MB LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN GUATEMALA AND SRN YUCATAN PENINSULA
HELPS BRING MOISTURE INTO GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF TEXAS COLD
FRONT.
AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROUGH ALONG 107W HAS MINOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DRY AIR
MASS W OF IT SEEMS TO DISSIPATE PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTION.
BROAD HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTERED AT 35N133W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO
15N107W JUST AHEAD OF ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODEL HAVE
HIGH PRES MOVE N FURTHER WEAKENING FRESH TRADES AND CUTTING OFF
SOURCE OF N SWELLS OFF COAST OF CALIFORNIA THAT WERE ENCROACHING
INTO NE CORNER OF E PAC.
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 130W FROM 04N-11N HAS NO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
$$
WALLY BARNES
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