000
FXUS61 KALY 200702
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
TODAY...AND SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WHILE IT BUILDS THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE. OUR WEATHER WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES
START COOL AND BELOW NORMALS TODAY...AND HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY...BEFORE
SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAK INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ADVANCES SE FROM
HUDSON/S BAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 70-75 ACROSS MANY VALLEY
LOCALES...WITH MAINLY MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND 75-80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION POISED TO KEEP SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS N/NE
PORTIONS OF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. OVERALL PWAT/S ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 0.75-1.0 ACROSS NE REGIONS...AND 0.5-0.75
ELSEWHERE. SO...DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY PREVENT A COMPLETE FREE
FALL OF TEMPS...WITH MINS MOST LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING/S. THUS...HAVE GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO A MAV/MET
MOS BLEND FOR MINS...WITH 45-50 ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND 40-45 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE LESS CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY COOLER MINS ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT...ESP CLOSE TO BODIES OF WATER...SUCH AS THE HUDSON RIVER.

THU...850 T`S ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE +10 TO +12 C RANGE BY
DAY/S END. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITHIN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAXES...AS
RATHER HEALTHY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT ROUGHLY 850-900 MB MAY
PREVENT FULL MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THU NT...MAINLY CLEAR...AND STILL SOMEWHAT COOL...ESP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER/MID 50S EXPECTED WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION. PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITHIN DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DAYS 3 & 4...RIDGE AT 500HPA ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OFF NEW ENG BUT HAS WESTERN RIDGE AXIS FM
CAPE COD TO ROA. SAT NT 500HPA RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH WITH AXIS FM
TENNESSEE VLY TO DELMARVA...WHICH ALLOWS TROF OVER CENTRAL CANADA
TO PUSH EAST ALONG WITH ITS SFC CDFNT.

DAYS 5 TO 7...SUN MRNG THE GFS BRINGS THIS CDFNT FRONT TO ROUGHLY
A YOW TO TOL LN...AND QUICKLY PUSHES IT THRU THE FCA SUN AFTN AND
EVENING AS 500 HPA TROF MOVES THROUGH THE RGN. IT BUILDS A SFC
HIGH EAST FROM THE GRTLKS AS WELL AS ANOTHER 500HPA RIDGE...JAMMING
FAY UP ALONG THE GULF COAST TO WANDER WESTWARD...WITH THE CAPTURE
OF ITS MOISTURE AND REMNANTS BY THE WESTERLIES DELAYED TILL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GEM...WHERE THE CDFNT NEVER GETS HERE
BUT ALOT OF OTHER ISSUES DO. THE GEM SLOWS THE FRONT TO A STALL
MONDAY MORNING FROM LK ERIE TO YQB..BUT IT ALSO IMPLIES WITH THIS
STALL...A CAPTURING OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY AND ITS MOISTURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST MUCH FASTER IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AND
THE INTERACTION OF THE REMNANTS WITH THE CDFNT AS IT SAGS SLOWLY
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE IS THE NEW ECMWF WHICH TIMES THE CDFNT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND GEM...SUN NT FRONT REACHES YOW TO DTW...MOVING THRU FCA
DURING MONDAY. IT TAKES FAY BACK INTO THE OPEN GULF AND TURNS IT
NORTH INTO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS IT SEPARATE FM THE
CDFNT AFFECTING OUR FCA AS WELL AS TH WESTERLIES.

THIS HAS BEEN A RECURRING THEME WITH THIS PERIOD FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER WITH THIS CDFNT.
WILL PROBABLY ONLY TAKE POPS OUT OF MORNING SUNDAY...AND KEEP REST
OF FCST AS ITS BEEN WITH INCR CHC PCPN. BEYOND SLOWING THE FRONT
SOME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL USE GMOS...AS IT RETAINS CONTINUITY
WITH CURRENT FCST...WHICH GOES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING EAST
SCENARIO FOR THE END OF EFP PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT WIND WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DRY LOW LEVELS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG FORMATION FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED AM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG WOULD BE AT KGFL...MAINLY AFTER 08Z/WED...AS GRADIENT
LOOSENS...AND WINDS DECREASE WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...HAVE
KEPT OUT MENTION OF ANY FOG.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVENING. GROUND
FOG COULD BE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
06Z/THU. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSIST. SHOULD PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AFTER
06Z...THEN AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KGFL. FOR
NOW...SINCE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z/THU...NO MENTION
NEEDED IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N TO NNW...AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. SOME LOCAL
VARIATIONS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
TODAY...ESP AT KGFL...WHERE WINDS MAY AT TIMES SHIFT INTO THE NE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED NGT THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING FAIR
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS...WARMING TO NEAR AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WITHIN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH WILL THEN FALL INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTERNOON.

HAINES INDICES WILL REACH 4 TO 5 BOTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THU
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THU AFTERNOON...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WERE JUST PEAKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...AFTER RISING 2-4 FEET IN SOME AREAS FROM MONDAY/S HVY
RAINFALL...SUCH AS THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER. ALL RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD BEGIN RECEDING TODAY...WITH CONTINUED RECESSION EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. A COLD
FRONT MAY COMBINE WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE...OR REMNANTS OF
FAYE...TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...PROVIDING
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THIS COMING SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 829 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET...COOL...CRISP CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. NOT MANY UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING AS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS UPSLOPE STRATOCU DECK IS
HANGING ON OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. STILL BELIEVE AREAL
EXTENT OF COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER 850-700MB AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...BUT AREAL EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO RATHER STRONG NW
GRADIENT TONIGHT THAT WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. TEMPS RATHER
COOL AND GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S...THOUGH COLDER INTO
THE UPPER 30S PORTIONS OF THE NE KINGDOM AND MID TO UPPER 30S
DACKS WHERE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST WILL EXIST IN COLDER
HOLLOWS. ON THE FLIP SIDE...LOCALLY MILDER READINGS INVOF LK
CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT TUESDAY...IDEAL STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WX ON TAP TO
ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE NERN U.S. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN
SUCH DRY BNDRY LYR MOISTURE PROFILES. AS MEAN COLUMNAR FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY...EXPECT A MARKED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING QUICKLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM CONCERN WL BE CHCS FOR
RW/TRW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES ACRS OUR CWA THRU SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WL PROVIDE FA
WITH BLW NORMAL PRECIP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW VERY DRY
AIRMASS ACRS OUR FA...WHICH WL SUPPORT A LARGE SPREAD IN DIURNAL
TEMPS FROM DAILY HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
15 AND 17C ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUE >570DAM
SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GIVEN LLVL THERMAL PROFILE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF GOOD LLVL
DRYING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW TEMPS APPROACH 90F ON
FRIDAY ACRS THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AS SFC COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN...WEAK PRE FRNTAL
TROF AND EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE SW FLW ALOFT WL INTERACTING WITH
SFC INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CHC POPS LATE SATURDAY. THE ACTUALLY
SFC FRNT...ALONG WITH BEST MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WL
IMPACT FA ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN...QUICK
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...EXPECT ONLY A 1 TO 4 HR WINDOW OF PRECIP.
TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WL COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE INTERACTION
OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEING LIFTED NORTH TWD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR LATTER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE KMPV
AND KSLK AREAS. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 16
KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES AND
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL WL BE FOR
MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06-12Z...WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/JAN

000
FXUS61 KALY 200531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
INITIALLY BE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY...BEFORE
SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAK INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ADVANCES SE FROM
HUDSON/S BAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 70-75 ACROSS MANY VALLEY
LOCALES...WITH MAINLY MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND 75-80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION POISED TO KEEP SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS N/NE
PORTIONS OF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. OVERALL PWAT/S ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 0.75-1.0 ACROSS NE REGIONS...AND 0.5-0.75
ELSEWHERE. SO...DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY PREVENT A COMPLETE FREE
FALL OF TEMPS...WITH MINS MOST LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING/S. THUS...HAVE GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO A MAV/MET
MOS BLEND FOR MINS...WITH 45-50 ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND 40-45 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE LESS CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY COOLER MINS ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT...ESP CLOSE TO BODIES OF WATER...SUCH AS THE HUDSON RIVER.

THU...850 T`S ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE +10 TO +12 C RANGE BY
DAY/S END. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITHIN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAXES...AS
RATHER HEALTHY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT ROUGHLY 850-900 MB MAY
PREVENT FULL MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THU NT...MAINLY CLEAR...AND STILL SOMEWHAT COOL...ESP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER/MID 50S EXPECTED WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION. PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITHIN DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE ON CONTROL SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK...REFER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
DETAILS ON FAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT WIND WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DRY LOW LEVELS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG FORMATION FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED AM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG WOULD BE AT KGFL...MAINLY AFTER 08Z/WED...AS GRADIENT
LOOSENS...AND WINDS DECREASE WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...HAVE
KEPT OUT MENTION OF ANY FOG.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVENING. GROUND
FOG COULD BE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
06Z/THU. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSIST. SHOULD PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AFTER
06Z...THEN AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KGFL. FOR
NOW...SINCE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z/THU...NO MENTION
NEEDED IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N TO NNW...AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. SOME LOCAL
VARIATIONS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
TODAY...ESP AT KGFL...WHERE WINDS MAY AT TIMES SHIFT INTO THE NE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
WED NGT THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR/IFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND
THU NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A MOSTLY CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT WITH NEARLY FULL RECOVERY...AND
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FROST ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A LIGHT DEW AS THE NORTH
WIND DIMINISHES. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN AWHILE...DOWN INTO THE 30S VALLEY
LOCATIONS...40S ACROSS THE HILLS. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
MPH. A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING 100
PERCENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY WITH NO
RAINFALL FORECAST. RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS
TO BE SUNDAY...AND IT MIGHT INCLUDE THE REMNANTS OF FAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 200052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
852 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY USHERING IN
SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS...FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. COOL NIGHT ON TAP. RECORD
LOW FOR AUGUST 20TH FOR ALBANY NY IS 45 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET BACK
IN 1998. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THAT VALUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 40S...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS PROGGED
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. COVERAGE
NOT ENOUGH FOR A FROST ADVISORY...HAVE MENTION IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY. H850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
FROM AS LOW +3C THIS EVENING...TO AROUND +13C LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE DUE TO ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AND EXCELLENT INSULAR
RADIATION. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 900 MB LEVEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NOT THE FULL THE H850 LEVEL THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE USUALLY MIXES TO.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR WITH THIS FEATURE...ARE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ON BY TO
NORTHEAST BY NIGHTTIME.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER US ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IDEAL PERFECT
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AS THE SKY WILL CLEAR NORTH...AND REMAIN
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP AS MUCH AS TONIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WENT WITH A MIX THE MAV/MET AND FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FINALLY...WE SHOULD ENJOY A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITHOUT RAIN OR
CONVECTION...THE LONGEST SUCH STRETCH SINCE JULY 3RD-7TH!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE ON CONTROL SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK...REFER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
DETAILS ON FAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND.
LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  A FEW SC LEFTOVER
FROM THE FAIR WEATHER CU FIELD ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
OVERNIGHT.  BUT NEITHER THIS...NOR THE CI TRYING TO FILTER IN OVER
THE TOP OF GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
DEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOW TEMPERATURES NOT FAR OFF THE RECORD
LEVELS FROM TAKING PLACE.  WITH THE AIR VERY DRY AT THE SURFACE...
BUT THE GROUND STILL VERY WET FROM THE RECENT RAINS...PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS A GOOD BET AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.  THE CI WILL MOVE IN AROUND 06Z...PROBABLY JUST SCT TO
BKN...THINNING TO JUST A FEW THIN AREAS BY THE TIME IT GETS DOWN TO
POU.  MILE-HIGH FAIR WEATHER CU OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WILL BE ADDED
IN...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A FEW AC...ON WED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE CUT BACK A LITTLE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON`S LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IS POSSIBLE WED NGT IF A WARM ADVECTION
PROCESS BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE SO EARLY.  HIGHLY DOUBTFUL OF ANYTHING
WORSE THAN MVFR...THOUGH.  BY THU...TEMPS ARE WARMING BACK UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE GROUND
SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER...SO THE RISK OF NIGHTTIME FOG MIGHT BE LOWER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  THE WEEKEND ITSELF WILL START
OFF ON A HIGH FLYING NOTE...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST BEGINS TO RAISE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS RETURNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NGT THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND THU
NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A MOSTLY CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT WITH NEARLY FULL RECOVERY...AND
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FROST ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A LIGHT DEW AS THE NORTH
WIND DIMINISHES. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN AWHILE...DOWN INTO THE 30S VALLEY
LOCATIONS...40S ACROSS THE HILLS. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
MPH. A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING 100
PERCENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY WITH NO
RAINFALL FORECAST. RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS
TO BE SUNDAY...AND IT MIGHT INCLUDE THE REMNANTS OF FAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...PROVIDING
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THIS COMING SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 829 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET...COOL...CRISP CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. NOT MANY UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING AS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS UPSLOPE STRATOCU DECK IS
HANGING ON OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. STILL BELIEVE AREAL
EXTENT OF COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER 850-700MB AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...BUT AREAL EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO RATHER STRONG NW
GRADIENT TONIGHT THAT WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. TEMPS RATHER
COOL AND GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S...THOUGH COLDER INTO
THE UPPER 30S PORTIONS OF THE NE KINGDOM AND MID TO UPPER 30S
DACKS WHERE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST WILL EXIST IN COLDER
HOLLOWS. ON THE FLIP SIDE...LOCALLY MILDER READINGS INVOF LK
CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT TUESDAY...IDEAL STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WX ON TAP TO
ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE NERN U.S. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN
SUCH DRY BNDRY LYR MOISTURE PROFILES. AS MEAN COLUMNAR FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY...EXPECT A MARKED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING QUICKLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM CONCERN WL BE CHCS FOR
RW/TRW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES ACRS OUR CWA THRU SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WL PROVIDE FA
WITH BLW NORMAL PRECIP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW VERY DRY
AIRMASS ACRS OUR FA...WHICH WL SUPPORT A LARGE SPREAD IN DIURNAL
TEMPS FROM DAILY HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
15 AND 17C ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUE >570DAM
SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GIVEN LLVL THERMAL PROFILE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF GOOD LLVL
DRYING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW TEMPS APPROACH 90F ON
FRIDAY ACRS THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AS SFC COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN...WEAK PRE FRNTAL
TROF AND EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE SW FLW ALOFT WL INTERACTING WITH
SFC INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CHC POPS LATE SATURDAY. THE ACTUALLY
SFC FRNT...ALONG WITH BEST MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WL
IMPACT FA ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN...QUICK
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...EXPECT ONLY A 1 TO 4 HR WINDOW OF PRECIP.
TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WL COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE INTERACTION
OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEING LIFTED NORTH TWD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR LATTER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
EARLY TONIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE AND MOISTURE
DECREASES. THIS IS THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE KMPV AND KSLK AREAS. FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY 13Z AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ALL AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 16 KNOT RANGE.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES AND PROVIDE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL WL BE FOR MORNING FOG
TO DEVELOP AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06-12Z...WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT STRONG LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL JET MAX OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE LAKE SURFACE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...SPECIFICALLY FROM
THE CHARLOTTE CROSSING SOUTHWARD WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 3
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER
MARINE...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 192341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...PROVIDING
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THIS COMING SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION UNDER
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. A QUICK LOOK AT SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL THIN OUT BY THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING HOURS AFTER LOSS OF INSOLATION...LEAVING MAINLY CLR
SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES. TEMPS
RATHER COOL AND GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S...THOUGH COLDER
INTO THE UPPER 30S PORTIONS OF THE NE KINGDOM AND MID TO UPPER 30S
DACKS WHERE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST WILL EXIST IN COLDER HOLLOWS.
ON THE FLIP SIDE...LOCALLY MILDER READINGS INVOF LK CHAMPLAIN WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT TUESDAY...IDEAL STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WX ON TAP TO
ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE NERN U.S. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN
SUCH DRY BNDRY LYR MOISTURE PROFILES. AS MEAN COLUMNAR FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY...EXPECT A MARKED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING QUICKLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM CONCERN WL BE CHCS FOR
RW/TRW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES ACRS OUR CWA THRU SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WL PROVIDE FA
WITH BLW NORMAL PRECIP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW VERY DRY
AIRMASS ACRS OUR FA...WHICH WL SUPPORT A LARGE SPREAD IN DIURNAL
TEMPS FROM DAILY HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
15 AND 17C ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUE >570DAM
SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GIVEN LLVL THERMAL PROFILE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF GOOD LLVL
DRYING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW TEMPS APPROACH 90F ON
FRIDAY ACRS THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AS SFC COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN...WEAK PRE FRNTAL
TROF AND EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE SW FLW ALOFT WL INTERACTING WITH
SFC INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CHC POPS LATE SATURDAY. THE ACTUALLY
SFC FRNT...ALONG WITH BEST MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WL
IMPACT FA ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN...QUICK
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...EXPECT ONLY A 1 TO 4 HR WINDOW OF PRECIP.
TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WL COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE INTERACTION
OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEING LIFTED NORTH TWD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR LATTER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
EARLY TONIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE AND MOISTURE
DECREASES. THIS IS THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE KMPV AND KSLK AREAS. FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY 13Z AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ALL AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 16 KNOT RANGE.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES AND PROVIDE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL WL BE FOR MORNING FOG
TO DEVELOP AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06-12Z...WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT STRONG LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL JET MAX OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE LAKE SURFACE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...SPECIFICALLY FROM
THE CHARLOTTE CROSSING SOUTHWARD WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 3
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER
MARINE...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 192317
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
717 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND
TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BE
COOLEST AIRMASS SINCE LATE MAY. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING BREEZE...SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT
BE HAVE TOUCH OF FROST BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE WITH TIME...AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURE WILL
REBOUND TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SHARP COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD TOOK A TUMBLE...AND ARE STILL IN THE 60S FROM
ALBANY NORTHWARD DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE.

A BREEZE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SO WILL ANY CLOUDS. THE STAGE IS
SET FOR THE COOLEST NIGHT SINCE MAY 30TH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 40S (EVEN IN THE TRI-CITIES)...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST. WE BELIEVE THE COVERAGE OF FROST WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A FROST ADVISORY...BUT WILL CERTAINLY MENTION IT IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY. H850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
FROM AS LOW +3C THIS EVENING...TO AROUND +13C LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WARMUP WILL BE DUE TO ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AND EXCELLENT INSULAR
RADIATION. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 900 MB LEVEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NOT THE FULL THE H850 LEVEL THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE USUALLY MIXES TO.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR WITH THIS FEATURE...ARE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ON BY TO
NORTHEAST BY NIGHTTIME.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER US ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IDEAL PERFECT
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AS THE SKY WILL CLEAR NORTH...AND REMAIN
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP AS MUCH AS TONIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WENT WITH A MIX THE MAV/MET AND FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FINALLY...WE SHOULD ENJOY A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITHOUT RAIN OR
CONVECTION...THE LONGEST SUCH STRETCH SINCE JULY 3RD-7TH!

FORGET TO MENTION EARLIER...OUR RECORD LOW FOR AUGUST 20TH IS 35
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1998. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THAT VALUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE ON CONTROL SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK...REFER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
DETAILS ON FAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND.
LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  A FEW SC LEFTOVER
FROM THE FAIR WEATHER CU FIELD ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
OVERNIGHT.  BUT NEITHER THIS...NOR THE CI TRYING TO FILTER IN OVER
THE TOP OF GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
DEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOW TEMPERATURES NOT FAR OFF THE RECORD
LEVELS FROM TAKING PLACE.  WITH THE AIR VERY DRY AT THE SURFACE...
BUT THE GROUND STILL VERY WET FROM THE RECENT RAINS...PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS A GOOD BET AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.  THE CI WILL MOVE IN AROUND 06Z...PROBABLY JUST SCT TO
BKN...THINNING TO JUST A FEW THIN AREAS BY THE TIME IT GETS DOWN TO
POU.  MILE-HIGH FAIR WEATHER CU OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WILL BE ADDED
IN...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A FEW AC...ON WED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE CUT BACK A LITTLE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON`S LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IS POSSIBLE WED NGT IF A WARM ADVECTION
PROCESS BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE SO EARLY.  HIGHLY DOUBTFUL OF ANYTHING
WORSE THAN MVFR...THOUGH.  BY THU...TEMPS ARE WARMING BACK UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE GROUND
SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER...SO THE RISK OF NIGHTTIME FOG MIGHT BE LOWER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  THE WEEKEND ITSELF WILL START
OFF ON A HIGH FLYING NOTE...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST BEGINS TO RAISE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS RETURNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NGT THRU SAT...VFR...NO WX.  CHC MVFR NIGHTTIME FOG WED AND THU
NGTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A MOSTLY CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT WITH NEARLY FULL RECOVERY...AND
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FROST ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A LIGHT DEW AS THE NORTH
WIND DIMINISHES. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN AWHILE...DOWN INTO THE 30S VALLEY
LOCATIONS...40S ACROSS THE HILLS. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
MPH. A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING 100
PERCENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY WITH NO
RAINFALL FORECAST. RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS
TO BE SUNDAY...AND IT MIGHT INCLUDE THE REMNANTS OF FAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 192048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND
TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BE
COOLEST AIRMASS SINCE LATE MAY. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING BREEZE...SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT
BE HAVE TOUCH OF FROST BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE WITH TIME...AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURE WILL
REBOUND TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SHARP COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD TOOK A TUMBLE...AND ARE STILL IN THE 60S FROM
ALBANY NORTHWARD DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE.

A BREEZE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SO WILL ANY CLOUDS. THE STAGE IS
SET FOR THE COOLEST NIGHT SINCE MAY 30TH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 40S (EVEN IN THE TRI-CITIES)...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST. WE BELIEVE THE COVERAGE OF FROST WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A FROST ADVISORY...BUT WILL CERTAINLY MENTION IT IN THE HWO.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY. H850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
FROM AS LOW +3C THIS EVENING...TO AROUND +13C LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WARMUP WILL BE DUE TO ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AND EXCELLENT INSULAR
RADIATION. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 900 MB LEVEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NOT THE FULL THE H850 LEVEL THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE USUALLY MIXES TO.


A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR WITH THIS FEATURE...ARE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ON BY TO
NORTHEAST BY NIGHTTIME.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER US ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IDEAL PERFECT
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AS THE SKY WILL CLEAR NORTH...AND REMAIN
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP AS MUCH AS TONIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WENT WITH A MIX THE MAV/MET AND FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FINALLY...WE SHOULD ENJOY A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITHOUT RAIN OR
CONVECTION...THE LONGEST SUCH STRETCH SINCE JULY 3RD-7TH!

FORGET TO MENTION EARLIER...OUR RECORD LOW FOR AUGUST 20TH IS 35
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1998. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THAT VALUE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE ON CONTROL SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK...REFER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
DETAILS ON FAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS COMING DOWN THE
MOHAWK AND HUDSON VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPOU WHERE THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE
AIR MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF FOG. CHANCE OF RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KGFL THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR. KGFL WILL RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR AN
EXCELLENT FLYING DAY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES...FEW (IF ANY)
SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTH OR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10
MPH.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...AM BR/HZ...CHC PM -TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A MOSTLY CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT WITH NEARLY FULL RECOVERY...AND
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FROST ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A LIGHT DEW AS THE NORTH
WIND DIMINISHES. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN AWHILE...DOWN INTO THE 30S VALLEY
LOCATIONS...40S ACROSS THE HILLS. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
MPH. A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING 100
PERCENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY WITH NO
RAINFALL FORECAST. RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS
TO BE SUNDAY...AND IT MIGHT INCLUDE THE REMNANTS OF FAY.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM/MCA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

AMENDED TO ADD A SENTENCE IN THE NEAR TERM (LAST ONE) ABOUT OUR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 20TH.

000
FXUS61 KALY 192026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND
TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BE
COOLEST AIRMASS SINCE LATE MAY. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING BREEZE...SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT
BE HAVE TOUCH OF FROST BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE WITH TIME...AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURE WILL
REBOUND TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SHARP COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD TOOK A TUMBLE...AND ARE STILL IN THE 60S FROM
ALBANY NORTHWARD DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE.

A BREEZE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SO WILL ANY CLOUDS. THE STAGE IS
SET FOR THE COOLEST NIGHT SINCE MAY 30TH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 40S (EVEN IN THE TRI-CITIES)...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST. WE BELIEVE THE COVERAGE OF FROST WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A FROST ADVISORY...BUT WILL CERTAINLY MENTION IT IN THE HWO.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY. H850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
FROM AS LOW +3C THIS EVENING...TO AROUND +13C LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WARMUP WILL BE DUE TO ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AND EXCELLENT INSULAR
RADIATION. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 900 MB LEVEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NOT THE FULL THE H850 LEVEL THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE USUALLY MIXES TO.


A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR WITH THIS FEATURE...ARE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ON BY TO
NORTHEAST BY NIGHTTIME.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER US ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IDEAL PERFECT
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AS THE SKY WILL CLEAR NORTH...AND REMAIN
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP AS MUCH AS TONIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WENT WITH A MIX THE MAV/MET AND FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FINALLY...WE SHOULD ENJOY A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITHOUT RAIN OR
CONVECTION...THE LONGEST SUCH STRETCH SINCE JULY 3RD-7TH!


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE ON CONTROL SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK...REFER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
DETAILS ON FAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS COMING DOWN THE
MOHAWK AND HUDSON VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPOU WHERE THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE
AIR MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF FOG. CHANCE OF RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KGFL THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR. KGFL WILL RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR AN
EXCELLENT FLYING DAY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES...FEW (IF ANY)
SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTH OR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10
MPH.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...AM BR/HZ...CHC PM -TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A MOSTLY CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT WITH NEARLY FULL RECOVERY...AND
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FROST ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A LIGHT DEW AS THE NORTH
WIND DIMINISHES. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN AWHILE...DOWN INTO THE 30S VALLEY
LOCATIONS...40S ACROSS THE HILLS. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
MPH. A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING 100
PERCENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY WITH NO
RAINFALL FORECAST. RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS
TO BE SUNDAY...AND IT MIGHT INCLUDE THE REMNANTS OF FAY.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM/MCA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 191958
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND
TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BE
COOLEST AIRMASS SINCE LATE MAY. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING BREEZE...SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT
BE HAVE TOUCH OF FROST BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE WITH TIME...AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURE WILL
REBOUND TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SHARP COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD TOOK A TUMBLE...AND ARE STILL IN THE 60S FROM
ALBANY NORTHWARD DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE.

A BREEZE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SO WILL ANY CLOUDS. THE STAGE IS
SET FOR THE COOLEST NIGHT SINCE MAY 30TH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 40S (EVEN IN THE TRI-CITIES)...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST. WE BELIEVE THE COVERAGE OF FROST WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A FROST ADVISORY...BUT WILL CERTAINLY MENTION IT IN THE HWO.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY. H850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
FROM AS LOW +3C THIS EVENING...TO AROUND +13C LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WARMUP WILL BE DUE TO ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AND EXCELLENT INSULAR
RADIATION. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 900 MB LEVEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NOT THE FULL THE H850 LEVEL THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE USUALLY MIXES TO.


A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR WITH THIS FEATURE...ARE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ON BY TO
NORTHEAST BY NIGHTTIME.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER US ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IDEAL PERFECT
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AS THE SKY WILL CLEAR NORTH...AND REMAIN
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP AS MUCH AS TONIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WENT WITH A MIX THE MAV/MET AND FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FINALLY...WE SHOULD ENJOY A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITHOUT RAIN OR
CONVECTION...THE LONGEST SUCH STRETCH SINCE JULY 3RD-7TH!


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL BE RELEASED SOON.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS COMING DOWN THE
MOHAWK AND HUDSON VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPOU WHERE THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE
AIR MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF FOG. CHANCE OF RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KGFL THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR. KGFL WILL RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR AN
EXCELLENT FLYING DAY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES...FEW (IF ANY)
SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTH OR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10
MPH.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...AM BR/HZ...CHC PM -TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A MOSTLY CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT WITH NEARLY FULL RECOVERY...AND
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FROST ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A LIGHT DEW AS THE NORTH
WIND DIMINISHES. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN AWHILE...DOWN INTO THE 30S VALLEY
LOCATIONS...40S ACROSS THE HILLS. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
MPH. A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING 100
PERCENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY WITH NO
RAINFALL FORECAST. RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS
TO BE SUNDAY...AND IT MIGHT INCLUDE THE REMNANTS OF FAY.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM/MCA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT 4
DAYS...PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS COMING SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION UNDER
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. A QUICK LOOK AT SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL THIN OUT BY THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING HOURS AFTER LOSS OF INSOLATION...LEAVING MAINLY CLR
SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES. TEMPS
RATHER COOL AND GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S...THOUGH COLDER
INTO THE UPPER 30S PORTIONS OF THE NE KINGDOM AND MID TO UPPER 30S
DACKS WHERE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST WILL EXIST IN COLDER HOLLOWS.
ON THE FLIP SIDE...LOCALLY MILDER READINGS INVOF LK CHAMPLAIN WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT TUESDAY...IDEAL STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WX ON TAP TO
ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE NERN U.S. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN
SUCH DRY BNDRY LYR MOISTURE PROFILES. AS MEAN COLUMNAR FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY...EXPECT A MARKED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING QUICKLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM CONCERN WL BE CHCS FOR
RW/TRW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES ACRS OUR CWA THRU SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WL PROVIDE FA
WITH BLW NORMAL PRECIP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW VERY DRY
AIRMASS ACRS OUR FA...WHICH WL SUPPORT A LARGE SPREAD IN DIURNAL
TEMPS FROM DAILY HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
15 AND 17C ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUE >570DAM
SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GIVEN LLVL THERMAL PROFILE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF GOOD LLVL
DRYING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW TEMPS APPROACH 90F ON
FRIDAY ACRS THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AS SFC COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN...WEAK PRE FRNTAL
TROF AND EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE SW FLW ALOFT WL INTERACTING WITH
SFC INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CHC POPS LATE SATURDAY. THE ACTUALLY
SFC FRNT...ALONG WITH BEST MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WL
IMPACT FA ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN...QUICK
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...EXPECT ONLY A 1 TO 4 HR WINDOW OF PRECIP.
TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WL COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE INTERACTION
OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEING LIFTED NORTH TWD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR LATTER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORT TERM AVIATION CHALLENGE WL
BE TIMING OF CLRING THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY FOG POTENTIAL AT
MPV/SLK. VIS SAT PIC SHOWS LOW STRATUS DECK...BECMG A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATUS CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTN...CAUSED BY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE...UPSLOPE FLW...AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE TRAPPED BLW TEMP
INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WL CONT TO DISSIPATE THRU THIS
AFTN...BASED ON LLVL DRYING WITH SFC DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE L/M
40S AND LARGE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING INTO OUR CWA. SOME
INTERESTING MESO-SCALE FEATURES MAY OCCUR ACRS BTV`S TAF SITE
TONIGHT. FIRST...SFC TO 850MB FLW FROM THE NW...COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER AND 5C 85H TEMPS (CONDITIONAL
UNSTABLE)...WL CAUSE A SCATTERED TO BKN CUMULUS DECK ACRS THE CPV
THRU 06Z TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DRAINAGE FLW WL DEVELOP BTWN
08-09Z OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH MAY HELP TO ADVECT
LOW CLOUDS/BR AND WINOOSKI RIVER FOG ACRS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
RUNWAY AT BTV BTWN 09-12Z TONIGHT. WL MENTION 4SM BR BCFG AT BTV.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WL DECOUPLE AFT 06Z AT MPV/SLK...COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF BL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF VLIFR IN FOG BTWN 08Z-13Z. FOG/BR WL DISSIPATE BTWN 12-14Z
WEDS...WITH UPSLOPE FLW PRODUCING A FEW TO SCATTERED DECK ACRS THE
MTN TAF SITES ON WEDS.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES AND
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL WL BE FOR
MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06-12Z...WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT STRONG LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL JET MAX OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE LAKE SURFACE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...SPECIFICALLY FROM
THE CHARLOTTE CROSSING SOUTHWARD WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 3
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191854
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
254 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT 4
DAYS...PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS COMING SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION UNDER
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. A QUICK LOOK AT SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL THIN OUT BY THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING HOURS AFTER LOSS OF INSOLATION...LEAVING MAINLY CLR
SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES. TEMPS
RATHER COOL AND GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S...THOUGH COLDER
INTO THE UPPER 30S PORTIONS OF THE NE KINGDOM AND MID TO UPPER 30S
DACKS WHERE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST WILL EXIST IN COLDER HOLLOWS.
ON THE FLIP SIDE...LOCALLY MILDER READINGS INVOF LK CHAMPLAIN WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT TUESDAY...IDEAL STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WX ON TAP TO
ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE NERN U.S. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN
SUCH DRY BNDRY LYR MOISTURE PROFILES. AS MEAN COLUMNAR FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY...EXPECT A MARKED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING QUICKLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORT TERM AVIATION CHALLENGE WL
BE TIMING OF CLRING THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY FOG POTENTIAL AT
MPV/SLK. VIS SAT PIC SHOWS LOW STRATUS DECK...BECMG A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATUS CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTN...CAUSED BY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE...UPSLOPE FLW...AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE TRAPPED BLW TEMP
INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WL CONT TO DISSIPATE THRU THIS
AFTN...BASED ON LLVL DRYING WITH SFC DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE L/M
40S AND LARGE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING INTO OUR CWA. SOME
INTERESTING MESO-SCALE FEATURES MAY OCCUR ACRS BTV`S TAF SITE
TONIGHT. FIRST...SFC TO 850MB FLW FROM THE NW...COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER AND 5C 85H TEMPS (CONDITIONAL
UNSTABLE)...WL CAUSE A SCATTERED TO BKN CUMULUS DECK ACRS THE CPV
THRU 06Z TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DRAINAGE FLW WL DEVELOP BTWN
08-09Z OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH MAY HELP TO ADVECT
LOW CLOUDS/BR AND WINOOSKI RIVER FOG ACRS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
RUNWAY AT BTV BTWN 09-12Z TONIGHT. WL MENTION 4SM BR BCFG AT BTV.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WL DECOUPLE AFT 06Z AT MPV/SLK...COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF BL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF VLIFR IN FOG BTWN 08Z-13Z. FOG/BR WL DISSIPATE BTWN 12-14Z
WEDS...WITH UPSLOPE FLW PRODUCING A FEW TO SCATTERED DECK ACRS THE
MTN TAF SITES ON WEDS.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES AND
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL WL BE FOR
MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06-12Z...WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT STRONG LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL JET MAX OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE LAKE SURFACE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...SPECIFICALLY FROM
THE CHARLOTTE CROSSING SOUTHWARD WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 3
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...CTL

000
FXUS61 KALY 191737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MAY. THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WONT BE TILL A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FROPA OCCURED SHORTLY AFTER 1730Z FROM OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE
YET LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE.  THIS TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN.  DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
MORE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LAV NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500HPA CUTOFF RAPIDLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS FROM EASTERN GRTLKS INTO FCA. BOTH GFS/NAM HAVE H850
TEMPS BRIEFLY PLUNGE IN STRONG CAA FALLING TO 4-8C...WHILE
1000-500DM THICKNESSES FALL TO 552-561 BY 12UTC WED. WINDS SHOULD
HOLD UP TILL 06-08UTC...BUT AFTERWORDS PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGHS
SUGGESTS THEY WILL BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AND GO CALM IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. MOST LOWS IN 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN MOUNTAINS AND
LOW 50S SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN A DEEP
ADIRONDACK VALLEY...BUT IT SHOULD BE AN ISOLD EVENT IF IT HAPPENS
AT ALL.

WEDNESDAY THE COLD CORE IN LOWER LEVELS DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND
MAJOR WAA SETS UP FM HUDSON`S BAY INTO NE USA. WHILE THIS IS STRONGER
TO N OF FCA...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME PATCHY HI AND MID
CLOUDS INTO FCA...PARTICULARLY N. SO PARTLY SUNNY CONDS N TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH...AS TEMP REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL
DURING AFTN.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE LIKES NOT SEEN SINCE JUNE. SFC HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED FM MID ATLC TO NEW ENGLAND AND BUILDS TO 1028MB. WITH
SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NO CHC PCPN. WHILE
WED NT WILL BE LAST COOL NIGHT...WAA CONTINUES INTO THE REGION WITH
850HPA TEMPS INCRG TO 13-17C THU. THIS ADVECTION IS FM THE NW WITH
THE 17S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND 13 IN SE...SO TEMPS WILL WARM FM TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THEY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH ACTUAL
HIGHER MAXES TO THE NW BY A FEW DEGREES. OTRW A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED. SPECIFIC TEMP GRIDS WILL BE A BLEND OF GFS/NAM MODEL TEMPS
AS THE GENERAL FEATURES AND TIMING OF THEM IS IN AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY 594DM 500HPA HIGH IS PARKED OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENG...SAT
AND SUN IT ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH DOMINATING
ENTIRE NORTHEAST USA FRIDAY...AND OVER THE WEEKEND IT EVOLVES INTO
A RIDGE FM VIRGINIA TO CAPE COD...AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DRY PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN DAYS 6 & 7...WITH THE TIMING OF A CDFNT
APPROACHING FM THE GRTLKS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS DEFINITELY
THE EASTERN MOST OUTLIER IN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE...IE ITS MUCH FASTER
THAN ALL THE OTHER MEMBERS OF ITS ENSEMBLE...AS EVEN THE MEAN
POSITION OF THE CDFNT IN THE ENSEMBLE IS 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE 00UTC RUN AT 12UTC SUNDAY.  THE CANADIAN...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PVS HPC PACKAGES HOLD CFP OFF TILL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING (IT
ALREADY DOES AS THATS THE EXISTING THINKING). WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
CHC POPS SUN AFTN. SO WILL GO WITH GMOS THRU SATURDAY...AND TWEAK
CURRENT HPC FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RAISING MAXES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS COMING DOWN THE
MOHAWK AND HUDSON VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPOU WHERE THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE
AIR MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF FOG. CHANCE OF RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KGFL THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR. KGFL WILL RETURN
TO VFR CONDTIONS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST BY MID MORNING TODAY.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A
GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE WIND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 40S
THIS AFTER NOON. TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH RH VALUES
RECOVERING TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT. DEW MAY OCCUR IN A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. A RATHER COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES DIPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWER
VALUES IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A GENEROUS FORMATION OF DEW ON EXPOSED
VEGETATION.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...IT WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING INTO
THE LOW 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACK REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RISES OF TWO TO
THREE FEET ON SEVERAL OF THE RIVERS INCLUDING THE MOOSE...THE WEST
AND EAST CANADA...THE SACANDAGA...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE HUDSON.
SOME STREAMS IN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES MAY GET CLOSE TO
BANKFULL IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY RECEDE LATER
TODAY AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTH. LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...THE CAPITAL REGION...CATSKILLS...THE BERKSHIRES...
AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE AHPS GRAPHS
ACCORDINGLY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE INCREASED FLOW WILL
BENEFIT RAFTERS AND KAYACKERS AS WELL AS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FLOW
FOR POWER GENERATION. DRY WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING FLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/MCA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191650
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER AND TO POPULATE WITH MOST
RECENT NEAR TERM WIND/TEMP GUIDANCE. SFC FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOC PCPN CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST IF
NOT ALL ECHOES EXITING FAR SRN VT ATTM. THUS WILL REMOVE ANY
REFERENCES TO MORNING PCPN SOUTH...KEEPING REMAINDER OF THE DAY DRY
UNDER BROAD AND COOL NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AREA SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR 800 HPA TODAY...THUS WILL TREND SKY COVER
SLOWLY TOWARDS PTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...THOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS ERN/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF AREA TODAY BEFORE BROAD-SCALE CLEARING OCCURS BY
EVENING. TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE UNDER AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND ASSOC CAA AT LOWER AND MID LVLS...RUNNING
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL MAX VALUES FOR MID TO LATE AUGUST. REST
OF FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE 40S...AND EVEN THE
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THIS WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGES BETWEEN WED AND THU
SYNOPTICALLY...ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS WILL WARM ON THU AND MAX TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORT TERM AVIATION CHALLENGE WL
BE TIMING OF CLRING THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY FOG POTENTIAL AT
MPV/SLK. VIS SAT PIC SHOWS LOW STRATUS DECK...BECMG A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATUS CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTN...CAUSED BY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE...UPSLOPE FLW...AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE TRAPPED BLW TEMP
INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WL CONT TO DISSIPATE THRU THIS
AFTN...BASED ON LLVL DRYING WITH SFC DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE L/M
40S AND LARGE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING INTO OUR CWA. SOME
INTERESTING MESO-SCALE FEATURES MAY OCCUR ACRS BTV`S TAF SITE
TONIGHT. FIRST...SFC TO 850MB FLW FROM THE NW...COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER AND 5C 85H TEMPS (CONDITIONAL
UNSTABLE)...WL CAUSE A SCATTERED TO BKN CUMULUS DECK ACRS THE CPV
THRU 06Z TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DRAINAGE FLW WL DEVELOP BTWN
08-09Z OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH MAY HELP TO ADVECT
LOW CLOUDS/BR AND WINOOSKI RIVER FOG ACRS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
RUNWAY AT BTV BTWN 09-12Z TONIGHT. WL MENTION 4SM BR BCFG AT BTV.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WL DECOUPLE AFT 06Z AT MPV/SLK...COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF BL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF VLIFR IN FOG BTWN 08Z-13Z. FOG/BR WL DISSIPATE BTWN 12-14Z
WEDS...WITH UPSLOPE FLW PRODUCING A FEW TO SCATTERED DECK ACRS THE
MTN TAF SITES ON WEDS.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES AND
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL WL BE FOR
MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06-12Z...WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JAN
LONG TERM...JAN
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 191550
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1150 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MAY. THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WONT BE TILL A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE
SOUTHERN MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE
WE WILL HOLD ONTO POPS AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION IS
WELL UNDERWAY WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE YET LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN
PLACE.  THIS TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES
DOWN.  DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND LAV NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500HPA CUTOFF RAPIDLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS FROM EASTERN GRTLKS INTO FCA. BOTH GFS/NAM HAVE H850
TEMPS BRIEFLY PLUNGE IN STRONG CAA FALLING TO 4-8C...WHILE
1000-500DM THICKNESSES FALL TO 552-561 BY 12UTC WED. WINDS SHOULD
HOLD UP TILL 06-08UTC...BUT AFTERWORDS PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGHS
SUGGESTS THEY WILL BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AND GO CALM IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. MOST LOWS IN 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN MOUNTAINS AND
LOW 50S SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN A DEEP
ADIRONDACK VALLEY...BUT IT SHOULD BE AN ISOLD EVENT IF IT HAPPENS
AT ALL.

WEDNESDAY THE COLD CORE IN LOWER LEVELS DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND
MAJOR WAA SETS UP FM HUDSON`S BAY INTO NE USA. WHILE THIS IS STRONGER
TO N OF FCA...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME PATCHY HI AND MID
CLOUDS INTO FCA...PARTICULARLY N. SO PARTLY SUNNY CONDS N TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH...AS TEMP REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL
DURING AFTN.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE LIKES NOT SEEN SINCE JUNE. SFC HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED FM MID ATLC TO NEW ENGLAND AND BUILDS TO 1028MB. WITH
SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NO CHC PCPN. WHILE
WED NT WILL BE LAST COOL NIGHT...WAA CONTINUES INTO THE REGION WITH
850HPA TEMPS INCRG TO 13-17C THU. THIS ADVECTION IS FM THE NW WITH
THE 17S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND 13 IN SE...SO TEMPS WILL WARM FM TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THEY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH ACTUAL
HIGHER MAXES TO THE NW BY A FEW DEGREES. OTRW A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED. SPECIFIC TEMP GRIDS WILL BE A BLEND OF GFS/NAM MODEL TEMPS
AS THE GENERAL FEATURES AND TIMING OF THEM IS IN AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY 594DM 500HPA HIGH IS PARKED OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENG...SAT
AND SUN IT ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH DOMINATING
ENTIRE NORTHEAST USA FRIDAY...AND OVER THE WEEKEND IT EVOLVES INTO
A RIDGE FM VIRGINIA TO CAPE COD...AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DRY PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN DAYS 6 & 7...WITH THE TIMING OF A CDFNT
APPROACHING FM THE GRTLKS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS DEFINITELY
THE EASTERN MOST OUTLIER IN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE...IE ITS MUCH FASTER
THAN ALL THE OTHER MEMBERS OF ITS ENSEMBLE...AS EVEN THE MEAN
POSITION OF THE CDFNT IN THE ENSEMBLE IS 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE 00UTC RUN AT 12UTC SUNDAY.  THE CANADIAN...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PVS HPC PACKAGES HOLD CFP OFF TILL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING (IT
ALREADY DOES AS THATS THE EXISTING THINKING). WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
CHC POPS SUN AFTN. SO WILL GO WITH GMOS THRU SATURDAY...AND TWEAK
CURRENT HPC FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RAISING MAXES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARIED FROM
IFR IN HEAVY FOG IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TO
MVFR IN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WAS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY CONDITIONS WERE VFR WITH A FEW SPOTS OF FOG. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK INCLUDING THE
KPOU TAF SITE DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS WHICH SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY CONDITIONS AT GLENS FALLS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID MORNING AND IN THE CAPITAL REGION CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID HUDSON
REGION OF NEW YORK AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND PREVAIL
FARTHER NORTH. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 8 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUST
UP TO 25 KNOTS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE ALBANY AREA
DUE TO THE FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY CAUSE FOG TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT KPOU AND IFR AT KGFL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT KALB...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THE
AIR MIXED AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OVER THE MOHAWK RIVER
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST BY MID MORNING TODAY.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A
GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE WIND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 40S
THIS AFTER NOON. TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH RH VALUES
RECOVERING TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT. DEW MAY OCCUR IN A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. A RATHER COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES DIPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWER
VALUES IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A GENEROUS FORMATION OF DEW ON EXPOSED
VEGETATION.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...IT WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING INTO
THE LOW 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACK REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RISES OF TWO TO
THREE FEET ON SEVERAL OF THE RIVERS INCLUDING THE MOOSE...THE WEST
AND EAST CANADA...THE SACANDAGA...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE HUDSON.
SOME STREAMS IN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES MAY GET CLOSE TO
BANKFULL IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY RECEDE LATER
TODAY AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTH. LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...THE CAPITAL REGION...CATSKILLS...THE BERKSHIRES...
AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE AHPS GRAPHS
ACCORDINGLY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE INCREASED FLOW WILL
BENEFIT RAFTERS AND KAYACKERS AS WELL AS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FLOW
FOR POWER GENERATION. DRY WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING FLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER AND TO POPULATE WITH MOST
RECENT NEAR TERM WIND/TEMP GUIDANCE. SFC FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOC PCPN CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST IF
NOT ALL ECHOES EXITING FAR SRN VT ATTM. THUS WILL REMOVE ANY
REFERENCES TO MORNING PCPN SOUTH...KEEPING REMAINDER OF THE DAY DRY
UNDER BROAD AND COOL NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AREA SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR 800 HPA TODAY...THUS WILL TREND SKY COVER
SLOWLY TOWARDS PTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...THOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS ERN/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF AREA TODAY BEFORE BROAD-SCALE CLEARING OCCURS BY
EVENING. TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE UNDER AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND ASSOC CAA AT LOWER AND MID LVLS...RUNNING
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL MAX VALUES FOR MID TO LATE AUGUST. REST
OF FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE 40S...AND EVEN THE
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THIS WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGES BETWEEN WED AND THU
SYNOPTICALLY...ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS WILL WARM ON THU AND MAX TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
AT 12Z. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF VERMONT IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. THIS CLEARING
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 18Z TODAY.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION BY 23Z TODAY...AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO FORM IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JAN
LONG TERM...JAN
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191211
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
811 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS OUR CWA A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE HELD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES UNTIL
15Z. THEN POPS DROP. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS ONLY
REACHING THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE 40S...AND EVEN THE
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THIS WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGES BETWEEN WED AND THU
SYNOPTICALLY...ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS WILL WARM ON THU AND MAX TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
AT 12Z. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF VERMONT IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 18Z TODAY.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION BY 23Z TODAY...AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO FORM IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAN
NEAR TERM...JAN
SHORT TERM...JAN
LONG TERM...JAN
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 191105
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MAY. THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WONT BE TILL A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADED TOWARD THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS WEST TO PAST
BUFFALO. IT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO THE
CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON REGIONS OF NY AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ISSUED ON MONDAY EXPIRED AT 10PM. WILL BE SLIGHTLY RAISING
LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MATCH AVAILABLE
OBSERVED VALUES AS TEMPS IN ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA ARE STILL 55
TO 65 AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE ONLY ENHANCED
WORDING PLANNED FOR THE TSTMS IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL
BE MOVING THE POPS PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500HPA CUTOFF RAPIDLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS FROM EASTERN GRTLKS INTO FCA. BOTH GFS/NAM HAVE H850
TEMPS BRIEFLY PLUNGE IN STRONG CAA FALLING TO 4-8C...WHILE
1000-500DM THICKNESSES FALL TO 552-561 BY 12UTC WED. WINDS SHOULD
HOLD UP TILL 06-08UTC...BUT AFTERWORDS PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGHS
SUGGESTS THEY WILL BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AND GO CALM IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. MOST LOWS IN 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN MOUNTAINS AND
LOW 50S SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN A DEEP
ADIRONDACK VALLEY...BUT IT SHOULD BE AN ISOLD EVENT IF IT HAPPENS
AT ALL.

WEDNESDAY THE COLD CORE IN LOWER LEVELS DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND
MAJOR WAA SETS UP FM HUDSON`S BAY INTO NE USA. WHILE THIS IS STRONGER
TO N OF FCA...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME PATCHY HI AND MID
CLOUDS INTO FCA...PARTICULARLY N. SO PARTLY SUNNY CONDS N TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH...AS TEMP REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL
DURING AFTN.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE LIKES NOT SEEN SINCE JUNE. SFC HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED FM MID ATLC TO NEW ENGLAND AND BUILDS TO 1028MB. WITH
SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NO CHC PCPN. WHILE
WED NT WILL BE LAST COOL NIGHT...WAA CONTINUES INTO THE REGION WITH
850HPA TEMPS INCRG TO 13-17C THU. THIS ADVECTION IS FM THE NW WITH
THE 17S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND 13 IN SE...SO TEMPS WILL WARM FM TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THEY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH ACTUAL
HIGHER MAXES TO THE NW BY A FEW DEGREES. OTRW A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED. SPECIFIC TEMP GRIDS WILL BE A BLEND OF GFS/NAM MODEL
TEMPS AS THE GENERAL FEATURES AND TIMING OF THEM IS IN AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY 594DM 500HPA HIGH IS PARKED OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENG...SAT
AND SUN IT ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH DOMINATING
ENTIRE NORTHEAST USA FRIDAY...AND OVER THE WEEKEND IT EVOLVES INTO
A RIDGE FM VIRGINIA TO CAPE COD...AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DRY PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN DAYS 6 & 7...WITH THE TIMING OF A CDFNT
APPROACHING FM THE GRTLKS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS DEFINITELY
THE EASTERN MOST OUTLIER IN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE...IE ITS MUCH FASTER
THAN ALL THE OTHER MEMBERS OF ITS ENSEMBLE...AS EVEN THE MEAN
POSITION OF THE CDFNT IN THE ENSEMBLE IS 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE 00UTC RUN AT 12UTC SUNDAY.  THE CANADIAN...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PVS HPC PACKAGES HOLD CFP OFF TILL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING (IT
ALREADY DOES AS THATS THE EXISTING THINKING). WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
CHC POPS SUN AFTN. SO WILL GO WITH GMOS THRU SATURDAY...AND TWEAK
CURRENT HPC FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RAISING MAXES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARIED FROM
IFR IN HEAVY FOG IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TO
MVFR IN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WAS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY CONDITIONS WERE VFR WITH A FEW SPOTS OF FOG. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK INCLUDING THE
KPOU TAF SITE DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS WHICH SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY CONDITIONS AT GLENS FALLS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID MORNING AND IN THE CAPITAL REGION CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID HUDSON
REGION OF NEW YORK AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND PREVAIL
FARTHER NORTH. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 8 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUST
UP TO 25 KNOTS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE ALBANY AREA
DUE TO THE FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY CAUSE FOG TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT KPOU AND IFR AT KGFL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT KALB...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THE
AIR MIXED AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OVER THE MOHAWK RIVER
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST BY MID MORNING TODAY.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A
GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE WIND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 40S
THIS AFTER NOON. TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH RH VALUES
RECOVERING TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT. DEW MAY OCCUR IN A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. A RATHER COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES DIPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWER
VALUES IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A GENEROUS FORMATION OF DEW ON EXPOSED
VEGETATION.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...IT WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING INTO
THE LOW 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACK REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RISES OF TWO TO
THREE FEET ON SEVERAL OF THE RIVERS INCLUDING THE MOOSE...THE WEST
AND EAST CANADA...THE SACANDAGA...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE HUDSON.
SOME STREAMS IN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES MAY GET CLOSE TO
BANKFULL IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY RECEDE LATER
TODAY AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTH. LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...THE CAPITAL REGION...CATSKILLS...THE BERKSHIRES...
AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE AHPS GRAPHS
ACCORDINGLY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE INCREASED FLOW WILL
BENEFIT RAFTERS AND KAYACKERS AS WELL AS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FLOW
FOR POWER GENERATION. DRY WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING FLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
447 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS OUR CWA A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE HELD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES UNTIL
15Z. THEN POPS DROP. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS ONLY
REACHING THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE 40S...AND EVEN THE
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THIS WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGES BETWEEN WED AND THU
SYNOPTICALLY...ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS WILL WARM ON THU AND MAX TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AT 07Z...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT 07Z. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING WORKING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 15Z TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION BY 23Z TODAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAN
NEAR TERM...JAN
SHORT TERM...JAN
LONG TERM...JAN
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 190723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
323 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MAY. THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WONT BE TILL A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADED TOWARD THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS WEST TO PAST
BUFFALO. IT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO THE
CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON REGIONS OF NY AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ISSUED ON MONDAY EXPIRED AT 10PM. WILL BE SLIGHTLY RAISING
LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MATCH AVAILABLE
OBSERVED VALUES AS TEMPS IN ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA ARE STILL 55
TO 65 AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE ONLY ENHANCED
WORDING PLANNED FOR THE TSTMS IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL
BE MOVING THE POPS PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500HPA CUTOFF RAPIDLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS FROM EASTERN GRTLKS INTO FCA. BOTH GFS/NAM HAVE H850
TEMPS BRIEFLY PLUNGE IN STRONG CAA FALLING TO 4-8C...WHILE
1000-500DM THICKNESSES FALL TO 552-561 BY 12UTC WED. WINDS SHOULD
HOLD UP TILL 06-08UTC...BUT AFTERWORDS PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGHS
SUGGESTS THEY WILL BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AND GO CALM IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. MOST LOWS IN 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN MOUNTAINS AND
LOW 50S SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN A DEEP
ADIRONDACK VALLEY...BUT IT SHOULD BE AN ISOLD EVENT IF IT HAPPENS
AT ALL.

WEDNESDAY THE COLD CORE IN LOWER LEVELS DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND
MAJOR WAA SETS UP FM HUDSON`S BAY INTO NE USA. WHILE THIS IS STRONGER
TO N OF FCA...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME PATCHY HI AND MID
CLOUDS INTO FCA...PARTICULARLY N. SO PARTLY SUNNY CONDS N TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH...AS TEMP REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL
DURING AFTN.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE LIKES NOT SEEN SINCE JUNE. SFC HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED FM MID ATLC TO NEW ENGLAND AND BUILDS TO 1028MB. WITH
SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NO CHC PCPN. WHILE
WED NT WILL BE LAST COOL NIGHT...WAA CONTINUES INTO THE REGION WITH
850HPA TEMPS INCRG TO 13-17C THU. THIS ADVECTION IS FM THE NW WITH
THE 17S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND 13 IN SE...SO TEMPS WILL WARM FM TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THEY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH ACTUAL
HIGHER MAXES TO THE NW BY A FEW DEGREES. OTRW A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED. SPECIFIC TEMP GRIDS WILL BE A BLEND OF GFS/NAM MODEL
TEMPS AS THE GENERAL FEATURES AND TIMING OF THEM IS IN AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY 594DM 500HPA HIGH IS PARKED OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENG...SAT
AND SUN IT ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH DOMINATING
ENTIRE NORTHEAST USA FRIDAY...AND OVER THE WEEKEND IT EVOLVES INTO
A RIDGE FM VIRGINIA TO CAPE COD...AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DRY PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN DAYS 6 & 7...WITH THE TIMING OF A CDFNT
APPROACHING FM THE GRTLKS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS DEFINITELY
THE EASTERN MOST OUTLIER IN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE...IE ITS MUCH FASTER
THAN ALL THE OTHER MEMBERS OF ITS ENSEMBLE...AS EVEN THE MEAN
POSITION OF THE CDFNT IN THE ENSEMBLE IS 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE 00UTC RUN AT 12UTC SUNDAY.  THE CANADIAN...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PVS HPC PACKAGES HOLD CFP OFF TILL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING (IT
ALREADY DOES AS THATS THE EXISTING THINKING). WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
CHC POPS SUN AFTN. SO WILL GO WITH GMOS THRU SATURDAY...AND TWEAK
CURRENT HPC FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RAISING MAXES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARY FROM MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO VFR ACROSS
THE CATSKILLS...THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NY...AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE BAND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO THE NORTH TO VFR IN
THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE MID HUDSON AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT WILL
DETERIORATE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND PASSES...WITH A FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THE
TERRAIN WILL EXERT A FUNNELING EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST BY MID MORNING TODAY.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A
GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE WIND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 40S
THIS AFTER NOON. TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH RH VALUES
RECOVERING TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT. DEW MAY OCCUR IN A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. A RATHER COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES DIPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWER
VALUES IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A GENEROUS FORMATION OF DEW ON EXPOSED
VEGETATION.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...IT WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING INTO
THE LOW 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACK REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RISES OF TWO TO
THREE FEET ON SEVERAL OF THE RIVERS INCLUDING THE MOOSE...THE WEST
AND EAST CANADA...THE SACANDAGA...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE HUDSON.
SOME STREAMS IN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES MAY GET CLOSE TO
BANKFULL IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY RECEDE LATER
TODAY AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTH. LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...THE CAPITAL REGION...CATSKILLS...THE BERKSHIRES...
AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE AHPS GRAPHS
ACCORDINGLY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE INCREASED FLOW WILL
BENEFIT RAFTERS AND KAYACKERS AS WELL AS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FLOW
FOR POWER GENERATION. DRY WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING FLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KILPATRICK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM TONIGHT. STILL DEALING WITH LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT HAS
YET TO PUSH THROUGH. STILL PLENTY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LIFT FROM
SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING OVER
THE AREA...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THIS WILL GET THE COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING
ALONG WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
NOTICEABLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THUS ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
FORECAST AND KEPT HIGH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY UNTIL ABOUT 200
AM BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. REST OF FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY MORN. NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP LL CLD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE MORNING HRS.
WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY CLR BY THE
EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP THE CWA FOR A NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. MDL GUIDANCE TEMPS PUT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS INTO THE
30S...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT FROST. 850 TEMP
0F 2-4C OVER THE DACKS W/ CLR SKIES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...SO NEXT
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO DECIDE IF A FROST ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHD ON WED FOR ANOTHER NICE DRY DAY OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
SATURDAY. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AIRMASS MODIFIES AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
NEXT WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AT 07Z...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT 07Z. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING WORKING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 15Z TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION BY 23Z TODAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 190550
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MAY. THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WONT BE TILL A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADED TOWARD THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS WEST TO PAST
BUFFALO. IT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO THE
CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON REGIONS OF NY AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ISSUED ON MONDAY EXPIRED AT 10PM. WILL BE SLIGHTLY RAISING
LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MATCH AVAILABLE
OBSERVED VALUES AS TEMPS IN ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA ARE STILL 55
TO 65 AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE ONLY ENHANCED
WORDING PLANNED FOR THE TSTMS IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL
BE MOVING THE POPS PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500HPA CUTOFF RAPIDLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS FROM EASTERN GRTLKS INTO FCA. BOTH GFS/NAM HAVE H850
TEMPS BRIEFLY PLUNGE IN STRONG CAA FALLING TO 4-8C...WHILE
1000-500DM THICKNESSES FALL TO 552-561 BY 12UTC WED. WINDS SHOULD
HOLD UP TILL 06-08UTC...BUT AFTERWORDS PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGHS
SUGGESTS THEY WILL BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AND GO CALM IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. MOST LOWS IN 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN MOUNTAINS AND
LOW 50S SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN A DEEP
ADIRONDACK VALLEY...BUT IT SHOULD BE AN ISOLD EVENT IF IT HAPPENS
AT ALL.

WEDNESDAY THE COLD CORE IN LOWER LEVELS DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND
MAJOR WAA SETS UP FM HUDSON`S BAY INTO NE USA. WHILE THIS IS STRONGER
TO N OF FCA...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME PATCHY HI AND MID
CLOUDS INTO FCA...PARTICULARLY N. SO PARTLY SUNNY CONDS N TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH...AS TEMP REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL
DURING AFTN.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE LIKES NOT SEEN SINCE JUNE. SFC HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED FM MID ATLC TO NEW ENGLAND AND BUILDS TO 1028MB. WITH
SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NO CHC PCPN. WHILE
WED NT WILL BE LAST COOL NIGHT...WAA CONTINUES INTO THE REGION WITH
850HPA TEMPS INCRG TO 13-17C THU. THIS ADVECTION IS FM THE NW WITH
THE 17S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND 13 IN SE...SO TEMPS WILL WARM FM TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THEY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH ACTUAL
HIGHER MAXES TO THE NW BY A FEW DEGREES. OTRW A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED. SPECIFIC TEMP GRIDS WILL BE A BLEND OF GFS/NAM MODEL
TEMPS AS THE GENERAL FEATURES AND TIMING OF THEM IS IN AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING HUMIDITIES OVER OUR CWA.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY.  WITH NO ATMOSPHERIC PROTUBERANCES TO SPEAK OF...THE NEXT
REAL CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONT...BASICALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY NICELY WITH THE GMOS.
ECMWF WAS TOO SLOW IN GETTING THE PRECIP INTO THE AREA.  MEX HIGH
TEMPS SEEM TOO HIGH.  HPC CUTS VALUES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES...WHICH
IS STILL AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  FOR THE LOWS...
IT`S UP TO ABOUT ONLY A 2 DEGREES CUT.  THESE ARE ALSO RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FAIR CONDITIONS OF DAYS 3 TO 5...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE ENTIRE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARY FROM MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO VFR ACROSS
THE CATSKILLS...THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NY...AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE BAND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO THE NORTH TO VFR IN
THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE MID HUDSON AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT WILL
DETERIORATE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND PASSES...WITH A FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THE
TERRAIN WILL EXERT A FUNNELING EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TOMORROW VIA
A GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE WIND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
40S...LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OF LATE.

CLEAR AND COOL TUESDAY NIGHT. A BREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS MIGHT
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF DEW AND FULL RECOVERY. RH VALUES SLATED
TO REACH 80-90 PERCENT...WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 100
PERCENT EXPECTED.

A DRY SUNNY DAY ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
WIND...AVERAGING 5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. RIVERS WILL SEE SOME
INCREASES IN FLOW AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE AHPS GRAPHS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT ALL REMAINING WITHIN THEIR BANKS. DRY WEATHER THEN
TAKES HOLD FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH RIVER LEVELS
RECEDE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KILPATRICK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...KILPATRICK
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190232
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM TONIGHT. STILL DEALING WITH LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT HAS
YET TO PUSH THROUGH. STILL PLENTY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LIFT FROM
SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING OVER
THE AREA...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THIS WILL GET THE COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING
ALONG WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
NOTICEABLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THUS ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
FORECAST AND KEPT HIGH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY UNTIL ABOUT 200
AM BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. REST OF FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY MORN. NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP LL CLD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE MORNING HRS.
WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY CLR BY THE
EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP THE CWA FOR A NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. MDL GUIDANCE TEMPS PUT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS INTO THE
30S...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT FROST. 850 TEMP
0F 2-4C OVER THE DACKS W/ CLR SKIES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...SO NEXT
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO DECIDE IF A FROST ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHD ON WED FOR ANOTHER NICE DRY DAY OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
SATURDAY. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AIRMASS MODIFIES AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
NEXT WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING MAINLY BTWN 00Z-06Z TUES. A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND
PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER BY
02Z...AND SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 08Z TUES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO NW
OVRNGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT. POST FRONTAL LLVL MSTR LINGERS ACRS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SHWRS WILL
END...BUT SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TILL ABOUT 14Z
TUES...AFTER WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.


00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
AREAS OF RADIATION FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS...MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z EACH DAY...INCLUDING TAF
SITES KMPV/KLSK.

&&

.BTV WATCH