000
FXUS65 KCYS 241016
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TODAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WITH
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SCOOTING EAST ACROSS MONTANA
AND WYOMING. CONCUR WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY ONE OUTLOOK OF
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LOCATED ALONG THE LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXISES AND
INSTABILITY AXISES FROM DOUGLAS TO SIDNEY. SOME HEAVY RAINERS AGAIN
WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW AND FUEL FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXISES. WILL
SEE AREAS OF FOG IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND IN
UPSLOPE WIND REGIME.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ON TAP ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPSLOPE WIND REGIME AND ALONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXISES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MORE LIMITED STRENGTH COMPARED TO TODAY AS MOST STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIE AND
SINCE LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE MORE COMMON THAN TODAY.
AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR SLIGHT RISK
ALTHOUGH BELIEVE HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE THE MORE COMMON THREAT OVER
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. PREFER COOLER ETA MOS HIGHS
OVER WARMER AVN MOS HIGHS ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING HEATING.   -RUBIN-

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE CWA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.  THE
00Z MODELS ARE NOW MORE SIMILAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  THE 12Z
ECMWF MOVED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS AT
THIS TIME THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  THE MAIN QUESTION WILL STILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS NEAR THE SURFACE.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST EAST OF
THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...THE BULK OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GENERALLY BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE.  THE GFS HAS THE LAYER
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF.  PERHAPS THE BIGGEST
POTENTIAL RAINFALL TIME MAY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  POSSIBLY THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND AFFECT
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH PART OF CWA.  WILL KEEP MAINLY SCATTERED TYPE
POPS IN MANY OF THE DAYS IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA WITH LOWER
POPS IN THE NORTH.  ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO
REFLECT THE ABOVE THINKING AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST PART
OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LOCALIZED MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOCALIZED MVFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.   -RUBIN-

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN
LONG TERM...WEILAND

000
FXUS65 KRIW 240846
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
246 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NW AND SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF EAST TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN MT/SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA
BY 06Z FRIDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN
WY ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
AND INTO NORTHERN NATRONA COUNTY. NORTHEASTERN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. ALTHOUGH
THE NAM INDICATES MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND LOWER LIFTED INDICES
THAN THE GFS...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY...NATRONA
COUNTY AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEAR 1.0 INCH WILL BE IN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM OVER
THE UINTAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO
CENTRAL WY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE FLAT RIDGE ALOFT
AND H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 14 AND 17 C WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS WY FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW AROUND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL ADVECT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
0.75 AN 1.0 INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...A VEERING WIND PROFILE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DESPITE
MODERATE H5 HEIGHT RISES. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CREST
ACROSS WY SATURDAY...AND WESTERLY BOUNDARY AND H7/H5 WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY COULD RESULT IN WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BENEATH THE LARGE
RIDGE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA HOWEVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. HOT DAY IN STORE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE EAST ZONES. A
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONTANA MONDAY WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AGAIN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH DUE TO DRY AIRMASS FORECAST. ON TUESDAY SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTH
AND EAST ZONES. HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS INDICATES MORE MOISTURE IN THE FLOW
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ADEQUATE DEWPOINT VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVE STORMS ALL LOCATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN NEXT THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPS MONDAY THRU THURSDAY WILL STAY VERY WARM TO HOT WITH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY...THEN WARMING UP
NEXT WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...

A DRIER AIRMASS AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH ACROSS
WESTERN WYOMING LATE THIS MORNING AND OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
INTO WEST CENTRAL WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OFF A DRYLINE NEAR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN NATRONA COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFFECTING KCPR-KWRL
ROUTES AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES AND
THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND
FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS BOTH DAYS. WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL TRANSPORT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH

000
FXUS65 KCYS 240754
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
154 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008

.UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDDED FORECASTS AND ZONE FORECASTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS CARBON COUNTY WYOMING.   RUBIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 115 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF FAR SE WY INTO THE NEB PNHNDL.  HEATING HAS BEEN
SLOWED SOME IN THE PNHNDL DUE TO MRNG CLDS...BUT MOST AREAS GETTING
GOOD SUNSHINE AT MIDDAY.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SHIFTED E
TO ALONG THE CWA BORDER FROM CDR-SNY.  MOISTURE PLUME IN MID LEVELS
HAS REMAINED OVER SE WY INTO THE PNHNDL...WITH FIRST BATCH OF STORMS
GOING UP IN THIS BAND OFF THE NRN CO MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND MOVING
GENERALLY ENE.  CAP WILL BREAK IN THE PNHNDL LATER THIS AFTN AND
EXPECT A BOX OVER MAINLY ERN PARTS OF THE AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WEAK FTR OVER UT AT MIDDAY MOVG NE.  FTR
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD WITH A WEAK JET STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
PAC NW UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING ASHORE.  MODELS CONT TO SHOW
STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER WRN/NRN SXNS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS FTR.  CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/NRN SXNS
HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT SINCE YDA IN WAKE OF UPPER TROF THAT MOVED
THRU OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO OUR N.  STORMS WILL BE SLOWEST MOVING IN
THE SOUTHEAST QTR OF THE AREA.  AFTER TONIGHT`S STORMS...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FOR THU...ALTHO MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WDSPRD
AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.  LOW LEVEL MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND IN FACT
MAY BE SPRDG WWD ON ENE WINDS THU AFTN INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE
FOOTHILLS.  MODELS AGAIN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS
OR STORMS LATE INTO THE NIGHT ON THU MAINLY NERN PART OF AREA.
WITH DECENT HEATING IN THE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS ON
THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...STILL ON THE WARM-HOT SIDE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO QUASH THE
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE BROUGHT ON BY SURFACE HEATING...ALONG WITH
BOTH UPSLOPE AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE A GOOD BET
THAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME ONLY WARMER.
BY SUNDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO CAP MOST
ACTIVITY...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. MODELS
REMAIN ALIGNED...EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NARROWLY SPREAD...THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE THAT WILL MAKE THE 90S DEGREE MARK LIKELY ALL NEXT WEEK IN
CHEYENNE...WITH TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEPEND ON RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE EACH DAY.

AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN STGR TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE PNHNDL
THIS EVENG...WITH SOME PTCHY MVFR CIGS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING EARLY THU MRNG AGAIN MAINLY AFFECTING CDR...BFF AND SNY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
LONG TERM....SOWKO

000
FXUS63 KUNR 240752
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPR VORTEX OVR SRN BC/SRN
ALTA WITH DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW IS FIRING CONVECTION FROM CNTRL MT THRU CNTRL/ERN WY
ATTM. SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.

TDY...ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACRS OUR WRN
ZONES THIS MRNG ASSOCD WITH EJECTING SHORT WAVE. ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AND EVE. INSTABILITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS AMS HEATS UP TDY. 1000-2000J/KG SBCAPE
WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACRS THE AREA...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS ACRS
NWRN SD WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. BL FLOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME E/SELY AS SFC TROF WASHES OUT. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND UPR LVL ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TDY. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SVR THREAT WILL DECREASE IN THE EVE...BUT
ISOLD/SCT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE NIGHT WITH SW FLOW ALOFT
AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRI...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD A BIT FURTHER SWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT MOST CONVECTION TO OUR SRN HALF OF ZONES WHERE
E/SELY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST. BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NERN WY INTO SWRN SD THIS DAY.

SAT...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ACRS
MOST OF OUR CWFA ALLOWING MORE RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE.
INSTABILITY IN THIS SELY FLOW SHOULD BE GREATER THAN ON FRI WITH
MUCH OF THE CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS REGIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE AREA. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE RIDGE AND COULD BRING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME LIKELY SEVERE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
JOHNSON/TRIMARCHI

000
FXUS63 KUNR 240246
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
850 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ACROSS ZIEBACH COUNTY...AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING. MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE
ALONG NEBRASKA BORDER WITH LOW LEVEL JET/850MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT IN AREA OF
700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KRIW 240200
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
800 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.UPDATE...

DRIER...MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL WY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S AT
01Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN EAST TO JOHNSON COUNTY. 01Z LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
LIFTED INDICES REMAIN BELOW 0 C ACROSS THIS AREA AND IN NATRONA
COUNTY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ISOLATED ACROSS THIS REGION AND
REMOVED POPS TO THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST
INTO THE MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN SOUTHWEST
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH BRUSHING SWEETWATER AND
NATRONA COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CURRENT DRY SLOT TO IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE LOWER AIR MASS DRIES SOME
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE DRY
SLOT. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND SPEED MAXIMA
ALOFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO COMPLICATE THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...SPREADING IT FARTHER
NORTH THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH RATHER DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. HAVE CHOSEN TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES IN MOST PLACES
LEAVING ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE EAST ZONES WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. ON SUNDAY THE GFS
HINTS AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO UTAH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH. MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE ALSO HINTED IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND INTO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY PM AND SUN NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
INTO WY MONDAY AND EXITS MONDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ALL AREAS MONDAY PM AND MON EVE. ECMWF MODEL
NOT SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE AT ALL SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
WHAT IF ANYTHING WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. GFS BUILDS UPPER
HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TUE AND WED. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE LATE TUE INTO WED. ECMWF BUILDS THE HIGH AS
WELL BUT SHIFTS THE CENTER A BIT MORE NORTH AND WEST OF THE GFS.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS. AS FOR TEMPS...
A HOT DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 700 MB TEMPS. THEN A LITTLE WARMER
AGAIN NEXT TUE AND WED.

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...WHERE
SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD
CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING SKY COVER
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALLS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE STATE. THURSDAY
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
IMPACTING MAINLY SWEETWATER COUNTY...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND
NATRONA COUNTIES. AGAIN...STORMS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAINS AND LOWERING SKY COVER.

FIRE WEATHER...

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST
INTO THE MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN SOUTHWEST
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH BRUSHING SWEETWATER AND
NATRONA COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CURRENT DRY SLOT TO IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE LOWER AIR MASS DRIES SOME
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE DRY
SLOT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER

000
FXUS65 KRIW 232051
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
251 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST
INTO THE MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN SOUTHWEST
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH BRUSHING SWEETWATER AND
NATRONA COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CURRENT DRY SLOT TO IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE LOWER AIR MASS DRIES SOME
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE DRY
SLOT. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND SPEED MAXIMA
ALOFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO COMPLICATE THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...SPREADING IT FARTHER
NORTH THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH RATHER DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. HAVE CHOSEN TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES IN MOST PLACES
LEAVING ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE EAST ZONES WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. ON SUNDAY THE GFS
HINTS AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO UTAH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH. MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE ALSO HINTED IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND INTO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY PM AND SUN NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
INTO WY MONDAY AND EXITS MONDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ALL AREAS MONDAY PM AND MON EVE. ECMWF MODEL
NOT SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE AT ALL SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
WHAT IF ANYTHING WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. GFS BUILDS UPPER
HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TUE AND WED. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE LATE TUE INTO WED. ECMWF BUILDS THE HIGH AS
WELL BUT SHIFTS THE CENTER A BIT MORE NORTH AND WEST OF THE GFS.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS. AS FOR TEMPS...
A HOT DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 700 MB TEMPS. THEN A LITTLE WARMER
AGAIN NEXT TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...WHERE
SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD
CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING SKY COVER
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALLS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE STATE. THURSDAY
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
IMPACTING MAINLY SWEETWATER COUNTY...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND
NATRONA COUNTIES. AGAIN...STORMS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAINS AND LOWERING SKY COVER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST
INTO THE MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN SOUTHWEST
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH BRUSHING SWEETWATER AND
NATRONA COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CURRENT DRY SLOT TO IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE LOWER AIR MASS DRIES SOME
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE DRY
SLOT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER

000
FXUS63 KUNR 231954
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE TROF DIPS DOWN INTO THE
FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROF...WITH DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. INITIAL SHORT WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE SECONDARY WAVE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
WYOMING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. 18Z KUNR
SOUNDING INDICATES STRONG INSTABILITY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CAP IN
PLACE. MODELS FORECAST THE HIGHER INSTABILITY (1500+ J/KG) TO BE
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT INTO THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS.
EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS. AS FOR THE TORNADIC THREAT...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS THE
HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH IS MARGINAL AT
BEST. THEREFORE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
INTO LATER THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST. AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH MODELS DO
NOT FAVOR STATIONARY STORMS. WITH THIS SAID...AN ISOLATED EVENT MAY
BE POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT THINK A WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A VARIETY OF SHORT
WAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (40-50+ KTS)...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST WITH FLOW STARTING TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE FLOW BRINGING THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE RIDGE AND COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KCYS 231914
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
115 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF FAR SE WY INTO THE NEB PNHNDL.  HEATING HAS BEEN
SLOWED SOME IN THE PNHNDL DUE TO MRNG CLDS...BUT MOST AREAS GETTING
GOOD SUNSHINE AT MIDDAY.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SHIFTED E
TO ALONG THE CWA BORDER FROM CDR-SNY.  MOISTURE PLUME IN MID LEVELS
HAS REMAINED OVER SE WY INTO THE PNHNDL...WITH FIRST BATCH OF STORMS
GOING UP IN THIS BAND OFF THE NRN CO MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND MOVING
GENERALLY ENE.  CAP WILL BREAK IN THE PNHNDL LATER THIS AFTN AND
EXPECT A BOX OVER MAINLY ERN PARTS OF THE AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WEAK FTR OVER UT AT MIDDAY MOVG NE.  FTR
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD WITH A WEAK JET STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
PAC NW UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING ASHORE.  MODELS CONT TO SHOW
STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER WRN/NRN SXNS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS FTR.  CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/NRN SXNS
HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT SINCE YDA IN WAKE OF UPPER TROF THAT MOVED
THRU OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO OUR N.  STORMS WILL BE SLOWEST MOVING IN
THE SOUTHEAST QTR OF THE AREA.  AFTER TONIGHT`S STORMS...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FOR THU...ALTHO MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WDSPRD
AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.  LOW LEVEL MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND IN FACT
MAY BE SPRDG WWD ON ENE WINDS THU AFTN INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE
FOOTHILLS.  MODELS AGAIN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS
OR STORMS LATE INTO THE NIGHT ON THU MAINLY NERN PART OF AREA.
WITH DECENT HEATING IN THE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS ON
THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...STILL ON THE WARM-HOT SIDE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO QUASH THE
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE BROUGHT ON BY SURFACE HEATING...ALONG WITH
BOTH UPSLOPE AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE A GOOD BET
THAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME ONLY WARMER.
BY SUNDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO CAP MOST
ACTIVITY...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. MODELS
REMAIN ALIGNED...EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NARROWLY SPREAD...THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE THAT WILL MAKE THE 90S DEGREE MARK LIKELY ALL NEXT WEEK IN
CHEYENNE...WITH TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEPEND ON RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN STGR TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE PNHNDL
THIS EVENG...WITH SOME PTCHY MVFR CIGS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING EARLY THU MRNG AGAIN MAINLY AFFECTING CDR...BFF AND SNY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....SOWKO

000
FXUS65 KCYS 230920
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
320 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

TODAY...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT TODAY FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH STRONGEST STORMS
CONCENTRATED ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS FROM DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF. AS
PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY ONE OUTLOOK...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ALSO A FEW HEAVY RAINERS DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF OUR COUNTIES.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH SCOOTING EAST ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. WITH LESS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE CWA FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AND
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.  A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.  ALSO...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THAT TIME.  WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BETWEEN 12C AND 16C OVER THE CWA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.  MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE GFS THEN SPREADS THAT MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA.  THE MOISTURE PLUME PER THE GFS
IS PUSHED SOUTH FOR TUESDAY BEFORE SPREADING BACK OVER THE CWA NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.  ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY IS WHERE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MID MORNING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LOCALIZED MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR DEVELOPING IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR IN THE MORNING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

RUBIN/WEILAND

000
FXUS65 KRIW 230907
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
RATTLESNAKE RANGE AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY...THE
EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...NATRONA COUNTY AND
JOHNSON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE NEAR 1.0
INCH...AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NATRONA COUNTY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A GOOD SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AT H5 AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING
WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR
WILL MOVE INTO WY WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT H7/H5 DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES F COOLER THAN HIGHS TUESDAY...WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT THURSDAY WITH THE FLAT RIDGE ACROSS WY
REMAINING IN PLACE. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH IN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. GFS AND NAM SHOW A 70+ KT H25 JET NEAR THE BASE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...THE H25 JET COULD OVERCOME THE LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST WY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. H5 WINDS THURSDAY IN JOHNSON COUNTY WILL BE AROUND 40
KT...AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WITH SEVERE OR NEAR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE BY 1-2 C
THURSDAY...AND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES
FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 F ABOVE
NORMAL WILL PREDOMINATE. DESPITE RAPIDLY RISING H5
HEIGHTS...ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS JOHNSON
AND NATRONA COUNTIES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE
NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH RATHER DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. HAVE CHOSEN TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES IN MOST PLACES
LEAVING ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE EAST ZONES WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. ON SUNDAY THE GFS
HINTS AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO UTAH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH. MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE ALSO HINTED IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND INTO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY PM AND SUN NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
INTO WY MONDAY AND EXITS MONDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ALL AREAS MONDAY PM AND MON EVE. ECMWF MODEL
NOT SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE AT ALL SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
WHAT IF ANYTHING WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. GFS BUILDS UPPER
HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TUE AND WED. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE LATE TUE INTO WED. ECMWF BUILDS THE HIGH AS
WELL BUT SHIFTS THE CENTER A BIT MORE NORTH AND WEST OF THE GFS.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS. AS FOR TEMPS...
A HOT DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 700 MB TEMPS. THEN A LITTLE WARMER
AGAIN NEXT TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A STATIONARY
FRONT AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH A DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.  ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PUSH INTO WYOMING WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA
THURSDAY...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS
NORTHERN WY AND EASTERN WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH

000
FXUS63 KUNR 230752
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
150 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...MCS ONGOING EARLY THIS MRNG ACRS ERN MT PUSHING INTO
WRN ND...ASSOCD WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING NEWD THRU WRN MT.
SCT CONVECTION EXTENDS SEWD INTO SERN WY WITH ALL ACTIVITY LIFTING
NEWD. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER ERN MT WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SWD INTO ERN CO.

TDY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACRS THE CWFA THIS MRNG
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD. LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE
SPREADING NWWD ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
MRNG...BUT WILL LIKELY PUSH FURTHER NORTH/WEST. BY AFTN...SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACRS THE WRN CWFA BEHIND DEPARTING CONVECTION.
MODEST INSTABILITY UP TO 1000J/KG ALONG WITH ADVANCING LEE TROF AND
ENUF ENERGY IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AFTN CONVECTION...SOME
SVR. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE SVR THREAT CAN EXTEND
DURG THE AFTN/EVE. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROF WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS...AND EVEN A TORNADO
THREAT ACRS SCNTRL SD. BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE AND THIS
MRNGS MCS/CONVECTION MAY HELP TO DELAY OR EVEN DECREASE THE OVERALL
SVR THREAT.

THUR...SFC BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACRS THE CWFA AS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SVR STORMS AS
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY BE
PUSHED EAST OF OUR CWFA THUR NIGHT.

FRI...W/NW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE DURG THE AFTN/EVE SPCLY ACRS THE WRN HALF OF ZONES AS
RETURN FLOW INCREASES. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE RIDGE AND COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...LINGERING INTO LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR ANY STORMS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
JOHNSON/TRIMARCHI

000
FXUS65 KRIW 230305
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
905 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.UPDATE...

THE INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS DECREASED GRADUALLY OVER THE PAST
2 HOURS. STRONG SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN MT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...AND TREND OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WY TONIGHT...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM UT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 726
FOR SUBLETTE...LINCOLN...TETON AND PARK COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM MDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERS THE ENTIRE FAR WEST THROUGH 9PM
THIS EVENING AS MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND MAX HEATING INTERACT
WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE/SPEEDMAX FROM THE SOUTH. THE
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE OVER ECNTRL NV/SWRN UT AT 19Z AND SHOULD
BE INTERACTING WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER NRN UTAH AND SWRN
WYO OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. IN ADDITION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER SRN IDAHO WILL MOVE INTO FAR WEST WYO THIS EVENING
ADDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. STRONG STORMS OFF THE
UINTAS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY. IF THESE BECOME TOO STRONG WE MAY NEED TO ADD SWEETWATER
TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE PLUME SHIFTS EWD BUT JUST FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT
OUR SERN ZONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. I`VE
HIT THIS AREA WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL DRYING MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT THERE MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NRN ZONES. RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD FRIDAY WITH
MID LEVEL WARMING SUPPLYING A CAP ON CONVECTION. THE ONLY AREA
THAT MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE THE FAR SERN ZONES WHERE
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN. STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OFF THE UINTAS AND THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. GFS FORECASTS A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS. THE EAST ZONES MAY SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRIDAY
EVENING. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES BACK NORTH INTO OUR
AREA. GFS MODEL HINTS AT FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS WITH SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS AT
BEST WILL OCCUR...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS
PAINTS AN UNSETTLED DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
TOWARD THE AREA. ECMWF MODEL IS FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE EARLY
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS STORMS. LEANING TOWARD GFS MODEL
FOR NOW. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK INTERESTING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST INTO THE REGION. SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD AID IN STORM FORMATION. AIRMASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START TO INCREASE. WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP
CHANCES GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE STATE THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
THESE SEVERE STORMS MAY CREATE PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IF
THEY MOVE OVER WESTERN AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KBPI...KPNA...AND KJAC.
THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 04Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREATING
GUSTY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN WYOMING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING HAIL...GUSTY WIND TO 50 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL THEN TAKE AIM ON
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY FROM RKS TO CPR. FURTHER
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

000
FXUS63 KUNR 230244
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
845 PM PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS
WYOMING PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  SEE CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING
AND MONTANA CURRENTLY. WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND ANTICIPATED SLOW STORM
MOTION...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 18Z SOUNDING FOR KRAP STILL SHOWS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND THE CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
HEATING FROM THE ABSENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER...IT IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
CAP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILLS AND WYOMING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ADD TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
LIMITED BY STABLE AIR LEFT BEHIND BY WEDNESDAYS CONVECTION.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE RIDGE AND COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. SOME
SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK
     HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT
     HILLS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN
     MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
     SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN
     MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR BENNETT-HAAKON-JACKSON-ZIEBACH.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
     NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-
     WYOMING BLACK HILLS.

&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KCYS 222104
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THU...VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA EAST OF THE MTNS.  SVR TSTM WATCH OUT
THRU 9 PM.  TAIL END OF UPPER TROF EJECTING NE ACROSS ID INTO MT
WILL BRUSH MAINLY WRN WY TNGT.  ENOUGH RESIDUAL MSTR AROUND OVER
REST OF AREA FOR SCT TSTMS THIS EVENG.  MID LVL MSTR LINGERS OVER
REGION INTO WED/WED NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS.  LOW LEVEL
MSTR TO LINGER OVER THE ERN SXNS...WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS
DEVELPG LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED MRNG.  THINGS START TO DRY OUT FROM
THE W ON THU AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE W.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THRU TUE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVG E ACROSS
MT INTO ND WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT FOR
PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS.  UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS
OVER AREA WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN TSTMS ON SAT BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
MOISTURE DRIFTS UP INTO THE REGION SUN INTO TUE FOR ANOTHER CHC OF
LATE DAY TSTMS.  TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE WARM-HOT SIDE THRU THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES PSBL IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
OVER THE NERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  SOME MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY FORM LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED MRNG MAINLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE...AFFECTING MAINLY THE BFF AND SNY TERMINALS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 222020
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
220 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND
MONTANA CURRENTLY. WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND ANTICIPATED SLOW STORM
MOTION...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 18Z SOUNDING FOR KRAP STILL SHOWS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND THE CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
HEATING FROM THE ABSENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER...IT IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
CAP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILLS AND WYOMING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ADD TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
LIMITED BY STABLE AIR LEFT BEHIND BY WEDNESDAYS CONVECTION.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE RIDGE AND COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. SOME
SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK
     HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT
     HILLS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN
     MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
     SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN
     MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR BENNETT-HAAKON-JACKSON-ZIEBACH.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
     NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-
     WYOMING BLACK HILLS.

&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KRIW 221951
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
151 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERS THE ENTIRE FAR WEST THROUGH 9PM
THIS EVENING AS MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND MAX HEATING INTERACT
WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE/SPEEDMAX FROM THE SOUTH. THE
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE OVER ECNTRL NV/SWRN UT AT 19Z AND SHOULD
BE INTERACTING WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER NRN UTAH AND SWRN
WYO OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. IN ADDITION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER SRN IDAHO WILL MOVE INTO FAR WEST WYO THIS EVENING
ADDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. STRONG STORMS OFF THE
UINTAS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY. IF THESE BECOME TOO STRONG WE MAY NEED TO ADD SWEETWATER
TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE PLUME SHIFTS EWD BUT JUST FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT
OUR SERN ZONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. I`VE
HIT THIS AREA WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL DRYING MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT THERE MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NRN ZONES. RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD FRIDAY WITH
MID LEVEL WARMING SUPPLYING A CAP ON CONVECTION. THE ONLY AREA
THAT MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE THE FAR SERN ZONES WHERE
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN. STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OFF THE UINTAS AND THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. GFS FORECASTS A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS. THE EAST ZONES MAY SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRIDAY
EVENING. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES BACK NORTH INTO OUR
AREA. GFS MODEL HINTS AT FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS WITH SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS AT
BEST WILL OCCUR...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS
PAINTS AN UNSETTLED DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
TOWARD THE AREA. ECMWF MODEL IS FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE EARLY
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS STORMS. LEANING TOWARD GFS MODEL
FOR NOW. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK INTERESTING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST INTO THE REGION. SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD AID IN STORM FORMATION. AIRMASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START TO INCREASE. WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP
CHANCES GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE STATE THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
THESE SEVERE STORMS MAY CREATE PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IF
THEY MOVE OVER WESTERN AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KBPI...KPNA...AND KJAC.
THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 04Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREATING
GUSTY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN WYOMING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING HAIL...GUSTY WIND TO 50 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL THEN TAKE AIM ON
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY FROM RKS TO CPR. FURTHER
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

000
FXUS63 KUNR 221806
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1206 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND MONTANA
CURRENTLY. WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND SLOW STORM
MOTION...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE GONE WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING TO EXTEND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA PER RADAR
IMAGERY. ALSO TWEAKED CLOUDS COVER AND WINDS A BIT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS HIGH AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE EXTENDING
THRU THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. POTENT SHORT WAVE NOTED MOVING THRU ERN
ID/WRN MT WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR WX LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...BROAD E/SE FLOW ACRS THE REGION WITH SFC RIDGE
OVR THE UPR MIDWEST.

TDY AND TONIGHT...UPR RIDGE AXIS PASSING OHD WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPS SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY AS PRES GRADS TIGHTEN
BETWEEN UPR MIDWEST RIDGE AND ADVANCING LEE SIDE TROF. AMS WILL
REMAIN CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY SPCLY OVER THE SD PLAINS...BUT AS
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST LATER THIS AFTN AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE
WEST EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...MOSTLY FROM NERN WY INTO THE
BLKHLS. BY TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES AND INTO ERN MT/WRN ND REGION. LLJ WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD AID CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH UPR
SHORT WAVE. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
NORTH...BUT MAY EXTEND SWD INTO AT LEAST THE NRN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWFA.

WED...UPR RIDGE WILL BE RATHER FLAT ACRS THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/MCS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP BY
AFTN WITH SFC TROF PUSHING THRU AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF OUR CWFA.
SBCAPES MAY APPROACH 3000J/KG AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG ADVANCING SFC
TROF. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FORCING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR AN
ACTIVE DAY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS.
SOME TORNADIC ACTIVITY NOT OF THE QUESTION ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC TROF.
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT LEAST IN THE ERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA WITH GOOD PROBABILITY FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT.

THU...UPR TROF WILL CROSS SRN SASK/MANITOBA WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPR SUPPORT FOR SOME AFTN/EVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. BIG QUESTION WILL BE
HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH EXPECTED NLY
FLOW BEHIND WED NIGHTS CONVECTION/MCS.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE RIDGE
AND COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. SOME
SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK
     HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT
     HILLS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN
     MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
     SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN
     MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR BENNETT-HAAKON-JACKSON-ZIEBACH.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
     NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-
     WYOMING BLACK HILLS.

&&

$$