Home > Products > State Listing > Minnesota Data
Latest:
 AFDDLH |  AFDMPX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 202343
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The main concerns in the short term period are for thunderstorm
chances overnight through tomorrow, and heat and humidity building
tomorrow as well.  The forecast is messy for this period, with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible, that initiate
sporadically.

For tonight, the remainder of the evening will continue to be quiet
with mainly high clouds passing through.  Strong theta-e advection
ahead of a low pressure system in the high plains will likely begin
producing precipitation after midnight in extreme southern and
western Minnesota. Thunderstorms will be possible as MLCAPE values
around 1000 j/kg move through.

For Friday...the overnight activity should proceed northeastward
following the forcing of the theta-e advection max.  Behind this
activity, we expect a break in the acitivity and for the heat and
humidity to build.  Dew points will rise above 70 degrees during the
day as the warm front draped east from the high plains low inches
northward through Iowa.  MLCAPE will build during the day and could
easily see around 3,000 j/kg develop.  The SPC has included a slight
risk for severe weather for much of the area, with hail and damaging
winds the primary severe threats, in addition to heavy rainfall
potential given such high dew points and PWAT values around 2.0
inches.  Expect most of the activity tomorrow afternoon locally to
be in eastern MN to western WI.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Convection will continue to move east through the area Saturday
evening, clearing the area and moving off into central Wisconsin
after midnight. CAPE values greater than 2500 J/kg along with
effective deep layer shear over 40 kts will continue to support a
threat for severe weather through the evening, as highlighted in the
SPC Day 2 outlook. Damaging wind still looks to be the main threat
with this event given the shear vector orientation supporting a
linear storm mode. Additionally a flooding threat may develop as the
night goes on with training thunderstorms likely given the
orientation of the steering flow parallel to the warm front. Current
thinking is that the heaviest rainfall should stay off to the
southeast but will have to monitor this situation given rainfall
amounts of 3-5" from the Twin Cities metro and southeast on
Wednesday night.

The surface low departs to the east on Saturday with an occluded
front lingering from along the I-35 corridor to points east during
the afternoon. Current thinking is that some scattered thunderstorms
may develop along & east of I-35 with the most widespread convection
up across the MN Arrowhead where there is better upper-level support.

High pressure at the surface dominates the region Sunday & Monday
with a return to northerly winds bringing much drier air and a brief
return to below-normal temperatures. This relief won`t last for
long as the high slides off to the east and muggy summer weather
returns, along with another active and rainy period beginning
Tuesday evening. Models agree with southerly flow bringing plenty
of moisture at the surface and a number of disturbances rounding the
periphery of the upper-level ridge, but diverge on the placement of
the warm front at the surface. For now count on at least general
chances of precip across the southern half of MN for the second half
of the week

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Benign conditions are expected through tonight, until the next
area of showers and thunderstorms arrives on Friday morning. Said
area is expected to enter southwest MN around daybreak, then
spread toward central MN/WI during the morning hours. MVFR
conditions attendant with the shra/ts are possible. More
development will be possible in the afternoon/eve. Variable winds
under 10 knots are expected overnight, then winds increase from
the southeast on Friday.

KMSP...
Quiet weather overnight, with a chance of showers around/after
15z, and then stronger storms possible around/after 20z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind ESE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...LS



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 202339
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A mid level ridge will build eastward from the Upper Midwest
tonight into the central Great Lakes by Friday evening. Behind it,
a warm front will lift northeastward from the central Dakotas into
central Minnesota. Despite the ridge, there is an area of
frontogenesis from 900 hPa to 800 hPa moving into northern
Minnesota late tonight that was associated with the shower/storm
activity over northeast North Dakota/northwest Minnesota earlier
today. The RAP/HRRR guidance has captured this activity best, so
leaned on this guidance for this evenings POPs. Cloud cover will
increase late tonight from west to east due to the incoming warm
front. With relatively clear skies for most of the night and light
winds, expect patchy fog to develop across northwest Wisconsin
and eastern portions of northeast Minnesota. Low temperatures
range from the low 50s in far northeast Minnesota, to the low 60s
in the Brainerd Lakes Region.

The warm front will lift northeastward into the eastern Dakotas
and western portions of Minnesota on Friday. This will bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms especially from
the Brainerd Lakes Region east to northwest Wisconsin. Across the
rest of northeast Minnesota, less certain on shower/storm chances
as guidance has been all over the place. Should have a better idea
on these chances later this evening as the higher resolution
guidance suggests that the forcing aloft originates from the
thunderstorm activity over northwest North Dakota. Regardless,
environmental parameters show 40-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear with
a few hundred to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. PWAT values are around 1.5
to 2.0 inches from central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin, which
is around the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding climatology
for MPX. With this in mind, strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible with the threats of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
heavy rainfall as highlighted in SPCs latest Day 2 Outlook. Expect
another hot and humid day with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Friday night we have a continuation of convection potential along
the mid level baroclinic zone draped from northwest Minnesota
southeast into Wisconsin along with a surface trough axis that may
be able to focus some convergence an produce thunderstorms.
Evening activity is going to depend on what happens earlier in the
day, so have kept pops somewhat generic as even if we can get a
decent complex going earlier in the day, additional storms may
form behind it if enough instability can develop again given the
broader scale environment.

A potent, compact upper level shortwave is expected to move across
the area Saturday evening, which together with some decent
instability and shear produces a risk for severe weather that
evening.  At this time the risk seems to be confined to the
afternoon and evening hours with hail and wind the main threat. Have
kept to mainly chance pops with a small area of likely along the
Canadian border.  Temperatures to remain on the warm side with some
low 80s southwest to low 70s northeast.

As the shortwave drops southeast of the area Sunday we are looking
at some daytime instability showers and possibly thunderstorms with
little/no severe risk due to the lack of shear.  Temperatures will
also be much cooler with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 70s.

After the shortwave drops to our southeast a large high pressure
ridge moves in and keeps the weather quiet for Sunday night through
early Tuesday, with a gradual warming trend.  Precipitation chances
return for the Tuesday afternoon through Thursday time frame, with
enough differences in the models to keep pops in the slight chance
or chance pop range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Generally VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with the
possibility for some shallow MVFR fog this evening at DLH, HIB,
BRD, and HYR, with fog most likely at BRD and HYR. Increasing VFR
mid/high level clouds late tonight into Friday with the
possibility for showers at INL tonight. Periodic chances for
showers and thunderstorms at BRD beginning mid to late morning
Friday and continuing through the day, but given the low
confidence in timing just kept a VCSH mention all day until we can
better refine the time when thunder is most likely. Nearly calm
winds overnight, becoming light out of the south-southeast Friday,
gusting up to near 20 knots at BRD during the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  58  72 /   0  20  20  30
INL  54  80  59  76 /  40  30  30  60
BRD  62  81  64  83 /  10  20  40  30
HYR  58  82  63  78 /   0  50  40  30
ASX  57  82  58  72 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WL
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 202100
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A mid level ridge will build eastward from the Upper Midwest
tonight into the central Great Lakes by Friday evening. Behind it,
a warm front will lift northeastward from the central Dakotas into
central Minnesota. Despite the ridge, there is an area of
frontogenesis from 900 hPa to 800 hPa moving into northern
Minnesota late tonight that was associated with the shower/storm
activity over northeast North Dakota/northwest Minnesota earlier
today. The RAP/HRRR guidance has captured this activity best, so
leaned on this guidance for this evenings POPs. Cloud cover will
increase late tonight from west to east due to the incoming warm
front. With relatively clear skies for most of the night and light
winds, expect patchy fog to develop across northwest Wisconsin
and eastern portions of northeast Minnesota. Low temperatures
range from the low 50s in far northeast Minnesota, to the low 60s
in the Brainerd Lakes Region.

The warm front will lift northeastward into the eastern Dakotas
and western portions of Minnesota on Friday. This will bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms especially from
the Brainerd Lakes Region east to northwest Wisconsin. Across the
rest of northeast Minnesota, less certain on shower/storm chances
as guidance has been all over the place. Should have a better idea
on these chances later this evening as the higher resolution
guidance suggests that the forcing aloft originates from the
thunderstorm activity over northwest North Dakota. Regardless,
environmental parameters show 40-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear with
a few hundred to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. PWAT values are around 1.5
to 2.0 inches from central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin, which
is around the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding climatology
for MPX. With this in mind, strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible with the threats of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
heavy rainfall as highlighted in SPCs latest Day 2 Outlook. Expect
another hot and humid day with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Friday night we have a continuation of convection potential along
the mid level baroclinic zone draped from northwest Minnesota
southeast into Wisconsin along with a surface trough axis that may
be able to focus some convergence an produce thunderstorms.
Evening activity is going to depend on what happens earlier in the
day, so have kept pops somewhat generic as even if we can get a
decent complex going earlier in the day, additional storms may
form behind it if enough instability can develop again given the
broader scale environment.

A potent, compact upper level shortwave is expected to move across
the area Saturday evening, which together with some decent
instability and shear produces a risk for severe weather that
evening.  At this time the risk seems to be confined to the
afternoon and evening hours with hail and wind the main threat. Have
kept to mainly chance pops with a small area of likely along the
Canadian border.  Temperatures to remain on the warm side with some
low 80s southwest to low 70s northeast.

As the shortwave drops southeast of the area Sunday we are looking
at some daytime instability showers and possibly thunderstorms with
little/no severe risk due to the lack of shear.  Temperatures will
also be much cooler with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 70s.

After the shortwave drops to our southeast a large high pressure
ridge moves in and keeps the weather quiet for Sunday night through
early Tuesday, with a gradual warming trend.  Precipitation chances
return for the Tuesday afternoon through Thursday time frame, with
enough differences in the models to keep pops in the slight chance
or chance pop range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

VFR conditions as of issuance time expected to continue until at
least 06z tonight. Some weak thunderstorms over NW MN are expected
to slowly, slowly drift east this afternoon, but are weakening
with time and are not currently expected to reach KINL or other
terminals. This may change in the next few hours so will be
monitoring for possible updates. MVFR fog is possible in the 08z-
12z time range for KHIB, KDLH, KBRD and KHYR, so have included
TEMPO groups for these sites. After 12z a return to VFR is
expected. Thunderstorms expected to develop in the 15z-18z time
range for KINL and/or KBRD, but confidence in location and timing
is low at this time and have left out for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  59  71 /   0  20  20  40
INL  54  80  59  74 /  10  20  40  60
BRD  62  81  63  81 /   0  40  30  30
HYR  55  81  62  78 /   0  30  30  30
ASX  55  80  58  73 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WL
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 202051
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
351 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The main concerns in the short term period are for thunderstorm
chances overnight through tomorrow, and heat and humidity building
tomorrow as well.  The forecast is messy for this period, with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible, that initiate
sporadically.

For tonight, the remainder of the evening will continue to be quiet
with mainly high clouds passing through.  Strong theta-e advection
ahead of a low pressure system in the high plains will likely begin
producing precipitation after midnight in extreme southern and
western Minnesota. Thunderstorms will be possible as MLCAPE values
around 1000 j/kg move through.

For Friday...the overnight activity should proceed northeastward
following the forcing of the theta-e advection max.  Behind this
activity, we expect a break in the acitivity and for the heat and
humidity to build.  Dew points will rise above 70 degrees during the
day as the warm front draped east from the high plains low inches
northward through Iowa.  MLCAPE will build during the day and could
easily see around 3,000 j/kg develop.  The SPC has included a slight
risk for severe weather for much of the area, with hail and damaging
winds the primary severe threats, in addition to heavy rainfall
potential given such high dew points and PWAT values around 2.0
inches.  Expect most of the activity tomorrow afternoon locally to
be in eastern MN to western WI.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Convection will continue to move east through the area Saturday
evening, clearing the area and moving off into central Wisconsin
after midnight. CAPE values greater than 2500 J/kg along with
effective deep layer shear over 40 kts will continue to support a
threat for severe weather through the evening, as highlighted in the
SPC Day 2 outlook. Damaging wind still looks to be the main threat
with this event given the shear vector orientation supporting a
linear storm mode. Additionally a flooding threat may develop as the
night goes on with training thunderstorms likely given the
orientation of the steering flow parallel to the warm front. Current
thinking is that the heaviest rainfall should stay off to the
southeast but will have to monitor this situation given rainfall
amounts of 3-5" from the Twin Cities metro and southeast on
Wednesday night.

The surface low departs to the east on Saturday with an occluded
front lingering from along the I-35 corridor to points east during
the afternoon. Current thinking is that some scattered thunderstorms
may develop along & east of I-35 with the most widespread convection
up across the MN Arrowhead where there is better upper-level support.

High pressure at the surface dominates the region Sunday & Monday
with a return to northerly winds bringing much drier air and a brief
return to below-normal temperatures. This relief won`t last for
long as the high slides off to the east and muggy summer weather
returns, along with another active and rainy period beginning
Tuesday evening. Models agree with southerly flow bringing plenty
of moisture at the surface and a number of disturbances rounding the
periphery of the upper-level ridge, but diverge on the placement of
the warm front at the surface. For now count on at least general
chances of precip across the southern half of MN for the second half
of the week

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through tonight, but showers and
thunderstorms may spread in from the south early tomorrow morning
for parts of western and southern Minnesota. High clouds and light
winds will last through tonight, but the next disturbance riding
over the upper ridge will move in tomorrow. On top of that, a
deepening surface low will move into the NE/SD area by tomorrow
morning with strong theta-e advection and unstable air working in
from our south. Included a VCSH at a few sites (KAXN, KRWF, KMKT)
for the end of the period. MVFR ceilings will be possible with
this activity lifting in, but leaned more optimistic at this
point. Lastly, fog will once again be a concern, but mainly in
western WI where wind remains the weakest overnight.

KMSP...main concern is for precip tomorrow and while confidence is
below average, currently thinking the afternoon presents the
greatest opportunity for precip and possibly thunderstorms in the
area.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 201804
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
104 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The short term concern is timing next bout of convection later
tonight.

The heavy rain producing convection has exited the cwa for the most
part. We did receive 2 to 5 inches of rain from the south metro to
along the Mississippi River to the southeast. Should be a mainly dry
day into this evening as the frontal boundary sags farther south
into Iowa and high pressure builds into the state. Some patchy fog
developed into central MN as the clouds cleared and this should burn
off quickly this morning. High temperatures are expected to warm
through the 80s.

Later tonight we see return flow/low level waa developing to the
southwest along with a possible short wave moving into southwest MN
from South Dakota. We will retain the chance PoPs for that
development later tonight. Clouds will thicken over the southwest as
well. Farther east, with light winds and the possibility of a mostly
clear sky much of the night, we could see some patchy fog develop
into west central WI later tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

In the big picture, we`ll see fairly zonal upper flow on Friday
transition to northwest flow by sunday with cooler and drier air
working into the region. However, an upper trough looks to dig
along the west coast during the first half of next week, leading
to the redevelopment of upper ridging over the center of the CONUS
by Tuesday/Wednesday. This looks to remain in place through the
remainder of the week. So, although we briefly see temperatures
dip below normal for Sunday/Monday things should quickly return to
at or above normal values for the remainder of the period.

In terms of the details, the main concern will be the possibility
for a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday, with locally heavy rainfall and some possibility of
severe weather again. The warm frontal boundary looks to get up
into the southern portion of the area on Friday as a weak surface
low slowly moves east from the central and northern Plains. Plenty
of instability and moisture will be present across the southern
half of the area, so the modest warm advection forecast should be
more than sufficient to get showers and thunderstorms going again
on Friday. The steering flow looks to be somewhat parallel to the
baroclinic zone and instability gradient, so some training of
storms seems possible, which would lead to a heavy rain threat,
particularly over the southern portion of the area. The surface
low will slowly push east Friday night and Saturday, working into
the lower Great Lakes by Saturday night. The guidance is
consistent in showing an inverted trough/occluded front north of
the surface low, and we may see additional showers and storms
develop near/ahead of that on Saturday, primarily impacting
locations near and east of I-35. The main cold front looks to drop
south across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with
high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday. We`ll get on the
backside of the surface high by Monday night and Tuesday, with
return flow setting up and a renewed chance of showers and
thunderstorms working in from west to east Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The guidance has some significant differences at that point
in time with respect to how far north the baroclinic zone and low
level moisture return, and don`t have particular confidence in any
specific solution at this point. The GFS would hang onto more in
the way of northwest flow into the second half of the week, while
the Canadian is more aggressive in building the ridge over the
area. A compromise may be best at this point, which the ECMWF
somewhat suggests. Regardless, it appears we`ll be near the
periphery of the ridge and instability gradient, so chances for
showers and thunderstorms look to be a good bet into at least
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through tonight, but showers and
thunderstorms may spread in from the south early tomorrow morning
for parts of western and southern Minnesota. High clouds and light
winds will last through tonight, but the next disturbance riding
over the upper ridge will move in tomorrow. On top of that, a
deepening surface low will move into the NE/SD area by tomorrow
morning with strong theta-e advection and unstable air working in
from our south. Included a VCSH at a few sites (KAXN, KRWF, KMKT)
for the end of the period. MVFR ceilings will be possible with
this activity lifting in, but leaned more optimistic at this
point. Lastly, fog will once again be a concern, but mainly in
western WI where wind remains the weakest overnight.

KMSP...main concern is for precip tomorrow and while confidence is
below average, currently thinking the afternoon presents the
greatest opportunity for precip and possibly thunderstorms in the
area.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201802
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
102 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Updated for 18z TAFs below

UPDATE Issued at 1027 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Made adjustments to temperatures, sky cover and wind gusts.
Bumped up temperatures and wind gusts across northeast Minnesota,
especially along the north shore as katabatic warming is expected
due to westerly flow. Increased cloud cover across southern
portions of the CWA to based on current satellite data.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

An area of high pressure near the border between North Dakota and
Canada will shift into Minnesota today. The surface ridge axis
will be just to the west and south of the Northland, so light to
breezy northwest flow will develop by this afternoon. Despite the
flow, the lack of cool air advection and relatively dry air will
mean it will even be difficult to produce any cumulus. It should
be a truly sunny day. Highs will be in the upper 70s to middle
80s. Some of the warmest areas in the forecast include the lower
elevation areas of Duluth and along the North Shore because of
the typical downslope warming from the northwest flow.

The surface ridge will move through the Northland tonight,
promoting clear skies and calm conditions. Winds and cloud cover
will begin to increase from the west late tonight as the surface
ridge departs and lower pressure approaches from the west. This
means the coolest overnight temperatures will be across the
eastern forecast area. Leaned on the cooler model guidance, such
as the consensus of the GFS MOS and NAM MOS. Lows should range
from the low 50s in the Arrowhead, to the middle 50s in northwest
Wisconsin, and to upper 50s to low 60s from central to north-
central Minnesota. There is a low chance of showers and very weak
storms (as suggested by the 00Z GFS) across the far northwest
forecast area, west of Bigfork and International Falls, due to a
potential mid- level frontogenetical band and passing weak
shortwaves.

An area of low pressure lee of the Rocky Mountains in the Northern
High Plains will advance east into the Dakotas Friday. The
associated warm front will be well south and west of the
Northland, but south-southeast flow will bring an influx of
humidity northwards into the Northland. However, the approaching
low pressure will stimulate the typical easterly, cool outflow
from Lake Superior. This will set up a stationary boundary across
the southern forecast area. Daytime heating will build up
instability from the west, with as much as 500 to 1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE across the southern and western forecast area. Passing
shortwaves and the stationary boundary across the southern
forecast area may provide enough forcing to generate some showers
and storms. If storms develop, they may become organized and
strong thanks to plenty of deep layer wind shear. There will
likely be at least 35 to 45 knots of 0-6 km wind shear. Highs
should range from the middle 70s near Lake Superior to the upper
70s and low 80s inland.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A stronger shortwave will continue to move from southern
Saskatchewan Friday evening to the Manitoba, northwest Ontario,
northern Minnesota region by Saturday evening. A surface low and
frontal boundary will be over the Northern Plains to the shortwave
Friday evening and will move into southeast Minnesota but extend
northwest into Manitoba by 12Z Saturday. It will continue east
Saturday into Saturday night with much of the region in a cooler
northwest flow by 12Z Sunday per both the GFS and ECMWF. The NAM
is slower.

There will be plenty of moisture across the region Friday night
into Saturday evening as PWAT values rise to 1 to around 1.5
inches...a bit higher from the NAM. The instability will be on the
increase as well. Showers and storms will be possible Friday
night becoming more likely overnight into Saturday as the
shortwave and low approach the region. The NAM and GFS also show
some areas of low level FGEN which would enhance lift. There isn`t
great agreement between the models on the exact location of the
FGEN and we may have to wait another 24 hours or so to get a
better handle on where it will set up for Friday night. There will
be a chance for strong to severe storms over much of the area
Friday night into Saturday evening. Heavy rain will be an
additional threat, especially near the stronger low level FGEN.

As the low and front pass through the region Saturday night into
Sunday, cooler air will be moving in and the severe threat will be
low. Showers and a few storms will remain possible Sunday but it
will then dry out Sunday night into Monday as high pressure
temporarily builds in.

There will be chances for showers/storms Tuesday/Wednesday. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show a front and shortwave moving through the
area but have some timing differences.

High temperatures Saturday will range from around 70 in the
Arrowhead to around 80 in the Brainerd Lakes region east toward
Siren. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to middle seventies with
temperatures warming to the mid to upper seventies by next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

VFR conditions as of issuance time expected to continue until at
least 06z tonight. Some weak thunderstorms over NW MN are expected
to slowly, slowly drift east this afternoon, but are weakening
with time and are not currently expected to reach KINL or other
terminals. This may change in the next few hours so will be
monitoring for possible updates. MVFR fog is possible in the 08z-
12z time range for KHIB, KDLH, KBRD and KHYR, so have included
TEMPO groups for these sites. After 12z a return to VFR is
expected. Thunderstorms expected to develop in the 15z-18z time
range for KINL and/or KBRD, but confidence in location and timing
is low at this time and have left out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  84  59  78  59 /   0   0  20  20
INL  79  54  80  59 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  84  62  81  63 /   0   0  40  30
HYR  85  55  81  62 /   0   0  30  30
ASX  85  55  80  58 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201527
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1027 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Made adjustments to temperatures, sky cover and wind gusts.
Bumped up temperatures and wind gusts across northeast Minnesota,
especially along the north shore as katabatic warming is expected
due to westerly flow. Increased cloud cover across southern
portions of the CWA to based on current satellite data.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

An area of high pressure near the border between North Dakota and
Canada will shift into Minnesota today. The surface ridge axis
will be just to the west and south of the Northland, so light to
breezy northwest flow will develop by this afternoon. Despite the
flow, the lack of cool air advection and relatively dry air will
mean it will even be difficult to produce any cumulus. It should
be a truly sunny day. Highs will be in the upper 70s to middle
80s. Some of the warmest areas in the forecast include the lower
elevation areas of Duluth and along the North Shore because of
the typical downslope warming from the northwest flow.

The surface ridge will move through the Northland tonight,
promoting clear skies and calm conditions. Winds and cloud cover
will begin to increase from the west late tonight as the surface
ridge departs and lower pressure approaches from the west. This
means the coolest overnight temperatures will be across the
eastern forecast area. Leaned on the cooler model guidance, such
as the consensus of the GFS MOS and NAM MOS. Lows should range
from the low 50s in the Arrowhead, to the middle 50s in northwest
Wisconsin, and to upper 50s to low 60s from central to north-
central Minnesota. There is a low chance of showers and very weak
storms (as suggested by the 00Z GFS) across the far northwest
forecast area, west of Bigfork and International Falls, due to a
potential mid- level frontogenetical band and passing weak
shortwaves.

An area of low pressure lee of the Rocky Mountains in the Northern
High Plains will advance east into the Dakotas Friday. The
associated warm front will be well south and west of the
Northland, but south-southeast flow will bring an influx of
humidity northwards into the Northland. However, the approaching
low pressure will stimulate the typical easterly, cool outflow
from Lake Superior. This will set up a stationary boundary across
the southern forecast area. Daytime heating will build up
instability from the west, with as much as 500 to 1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE across the southern and western forecast area. Passing
shortwaves and the stationary boundary across the southern
forecast area may provide enough forcing to generate some showers
and storms. If storms develop, they may become organized and
strong thanks to plenty of deep layer wind shear. There will
likely be at least 35 to 45 knots of 0-6 km wind shear. Highs
should range from the middle 70s near Lake Superior to the upper
70s and low 80s inland.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A stronger shortwave will continue to move from southern
Saskatchewan Friday evening to the Manitoba, northwest Ontario,
northern Minnesota region by Saturday evening. A surface low and
frontal boundary will be over the Northern Plains to the shortwave
Friday evening and will move into southeast Minnesota but extend
northwest into Manitoba by 12Z Saturday. It will continue east
Saturday into Saturday night with much of the region in a cooler
northwest flow by 12Z Sunday per both the GFS and ECMWF. The NAM
is slower.

There will be plenty of moisture across the region Friday night
into Saturday evening as PWAT values rise to 1 to around 1.5
inches...a bit higher from the NAM. The instability will be on the
increase as well. Showers and storms will be possible Friday
night becoming more likely overnight into Saturday as the
shortwave and low approach the region. The NAM and GFS also show
some areas of low level FGEN which would enhance lift. There isn`t
great agreement between the models on the exact location of the
FGEN and we may have to wait another 24 hours or so to get a
better handle on where it will set up for Friday night. There will
be a chance for strong to severe storms over much of the area
Friday night into Saturday evening. Heavy rain will be an
additional threat, especially near the stronger low level FGEN.

As the low and front pass through the region Saturday night into
Sunday, cooler air will be moving in and the severe threat will be
low. Showers and a few storms will remain possible Sunday but it
will then dry out Sunday night into Monday as high pressure
temporarily builds in.

There will be chances for showers/storms Tuesday/Wednesday. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show a front and shortwave moving through the
area but have some timing differences.

High temperatures Saturday will range from around 70 in the
Arrowhead to around 80 in the Brainerd Lakes region east toward
Siren. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to middle seventies with
temperatures warming to the mid to upper seventies by next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

High pressure has led to mostly clear skies, calm winds, and fog
over the Northland early this morning. The fog will quickly lift
over the next 1 to 2 hours leading to VFR conditions into this
evening. More fog will be possible later tonight dropping the
visibility to IFR or MVFR in spots. In addition to the fog later
tonight, some showers and storms may form as well. We left the
mention out of the TAF sites for now and KINL would be most likely
to see a shower/storm late in the period and it may need to be
added with later updates.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  84  59  78  59 /   0   0  20  20
INL  79  54  80  59 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  84  62  81  63 /   0   0  40  30
HYR  85  55  81  62 /   0   0  30  30
ASX  85  55  80  58 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WL
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201136
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

An area of high pressure near the border between North Dakota and
Canada will shift into Minnesota today. The surface ridge axis
will be just to the west and south of the Northland, so light to
breezy northwest flow will develop by this afternoon. Despite the
flow, the lack of cool air advection and relatively dry air will
mean it will even be difficult to produce any cumulus. It should
be a truly sunny day. Highs will be in the upper 70s to middle
80s. Some of the warmest areas in the forecast include the lower
elevation areas of Duluth and along the North Shore because of
the typical downslope warming from the northwest flow.

The surface ridge will move through the Northland tonight,
promoting clear skies and calm conditions. Winds and cloud cover
will begin to increase from the west late tonight as the surface
ridge departs and lower pressure approaches from the west. This
means the coolest overnight temperatures will be across the
eastern forecast area. Leaned on the cooler model guidance, such
as the consensus of the GFS MOS and NAM MOS. Lows should range
from the low 50s in the Arrowhead, to the middle 50s in northwest
Wisconsin, and to upper 50s to low 60s from central to north-
central Minnesota. There is a low chance of showers and very weak
storms (as suggested by the 00Z GFS) across the far northwest
forecast area, west of Bigfork and International Falls, due to a
potential mid- level frontogenetical band and passing weak
shortwaves.

An area of low pressure lee of the Rocky Mountains in the Northern
High Plains will advance east into the Dakotas Friday. The
associated warm front will be well south and west of the
Northland, but south-southeast flow will bring an influx of
humidity northwards into the Northland. However, the approaching
low pressure will stimulate the typical easterly, cool outflow
from Lake Superior. This will set up a stationary boundary across
the southern forecast area. Daytime heating will build up
instability from the west, with as much as 500 to 1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE across the southern and western forecast area. Passing
shortwaves and the stationary boundary across the southern
forecast area may provide enough forcing to generate some showers
and storms. If storms develop, they may become organized and
strong thanks to plenty of deep layer wind shear. There will
likely be at least 35 to 45 knots of 0-6 km wind shear. Highs
should range from the middle 70s near Lake Superior to the upper
70s and low 80s inland.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A stronger shortwave will continue to move from southern
Saskatchewan Friday evening to the Manitoba, northwest Ontario,
northern Minnesota region by Saturday evening. A surface low and
frontal boundary will be over the Northern Plains to the shortwave
Friday evening and will move into southeast Minnesota but extend
northwest into Manitoba by 12Z Saturday. It will continue east
Saturday into Saturday night with much of the region in a cooler
northwest flow by 12Z Sunday per both the GFS and ECMWF. The NAM
is slower.

There will be plenty of moisture across the region Friday night
into Saturday evening as PWAT values rise to 1 to around 1.5
inches...a bit higher from the NAM. The instability will be on the
increase as well. Showers and storms will be possible Friday
night becoming more likely overnight into Saturday as the
shortwave and low approach the region. The NAM and GFS also show
some areas of low level FGEN which would enhance lift. There isn`t
great agreement between the models on the exact location of the
FGEN and we may have to wait another 24 hours or so to get a
better handle on where it will set up for Friday night. There will
be a chance for strong to severe storms over much of the area
Friday night into Saturday evening. Heavy rain will be an
additional threat, especially near the stronger low level FGEN.

As the low and front pass through the region Saturday night into
Sunday, cooler air will be moving in and the severe threat will be
low. Showers and a few storms will remain possible Sunday but it
will then dry out Sunday night into Monday as high pressure
temporarily builds in.

There will be chances for showers/storms Tuesday/Wednesday. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show a front and shortwave moving through the
area but have some timing differences.

High temperatures Saturday will range from around 70 in the
Arrowhead to around 80 in the Brainerd Lakes region east toward
Siren. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to middle seventies with
temperatures warming to the mid to upper seventies by next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

High pressure has led to mostly clear skies, calm winds, and fog
over the Northland early this morning. The fog will quickly lift
over the next 1 to 2 hours leading to VFR conditions into this
evening. More fog will be possible later tonight dropping the
visibility to IFR or MVFR in spots. In addition to the fog later
tonight, some showers and storms may form as well. We left the
mention out of the TAF sites for now and KINL would be most likely
to see a shower/storm late in the period and it may need to be
added with later updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  83  59  78  59 /   0   0  20  20
INL  76  54  80  59 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  85  62  81  63 /   0   0  40  30
HYR  85  55  81  62 /   0   0  30  30
ASX  85  55  80  58 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KMPX 201047
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
547 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.updated for the 12z aviation below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The short term concern is timing next bout of convection later
tonight.

The heavy rain producing convection has exited the cwa for the most
part. We did receive 2 to 5 inches of rain from the south metro to
along the Mississippi River to the southeast. Should be a mainly dry
day into this evening as the frontal boundary sags farther south
into Iowa and high pressure builds into the state. Some patchy fog
developed into central MN as the clouds cleared and this should burn
off quickly this morning. High temperatures are expected to warm
through the 80s.

Later tonight we see return flow/low level waa developing to the
southwest along with a possible short wave moving into southwest MN
from South Dakota. We will retain the chance PoPs for that
development later tonight. Clouds will thicken over the southwest as
well. Farther east, with light winds and the possibility of a mostly
clear sky much of the night, we could see some patchy fog develop
into west central WI later tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

In the big picture, we`ll see fairly zonal upper flow on Friday
transition to northwest flow by sunday with cooler and drier air
working into the region. However, an upper trough looks to dig
along the west coast during the first half of next week, leading
to the redevelopment of upper ridging over the center of the CONUS
by Tuesday/Wednesday. This looks to remain in place through the
remainder of the week. So, although we briefly see temperatures
dip below normal for Sunday/Monday things should quickly return to
at or above normal values for the remainder of the period.

In terms of the details, the main concern will be the possibility
for a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday, with locally heavy rainfall and some possibility of
severe weather again. The warm frontal boundary looks to get up
into the southern portion of the area on Friday as a weak surface
low slowly moves east from the central and northern Plains. Plenty
of instability and moisture will be present across the southern
half of the area, so the modest warm advection forecast should be
more than sufficient to get showers and thunderstorms going again
on Friday. The steering flow looks to be somewhat parallel to the
baroclinic zone and instability gradient, so some training of
storms seems possible, which would lead to a heavy rain threat,
particularly over the southern portion of the area. The surface
low will slowly push east Friday night and Saturday, working into
the lower Great Lakes by Saturday night. The guidance is
consistent in showing an inverted trough/occluded front north of
the surface low, and we may see additional showers and storms
develop near/ahead of that on Saturday, primarily impacting
locations near and east of I-35. The main cold front looks to drop
south across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with
high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday. We`ll get on the
backside of the surface high by Monday night and Tuesday, with
return flow setting up and a renewed chance of showers and
thunderstorms working in from west to east Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The guidance has some significant differences at that point
in time with respect to how far north the baroclinic zone and low
level moisture return, and don`t have particular confidence in any
specific solution at this point. The GFS would hang onto more in
the way of northwest flow into the second half of the week, while
the Canadian is more agressive in building the ridge over the
area. A compromise may be best at this point, which the ECMWF
somewhat suggests. Regardless, it appears we`ll be near the
periphery of the ridge and instability gradient, so chances for
showers and thunderstorms look to be a good bet into at least
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Convection has exited the area to the southeast. Patchy high
clouds over the northern areas and light winds have made
conditions favorable for fog at least early this morning at most
locations. Mentioned some fog combinations through 13z. Then
expect vfr through at least 06z Fri as high pressure drops south.
Clouds expected to increase again to the southwest later tonight
and may usher in some -shra/-tsra toward KRWF before 12z.
Mentioned vcsh for now late. The rest of the area should remain
dry with perhaps some fog into west central WI late if high clouds
arent thick enough. Light north winds for the most part today
becoming light southeast late.

KMSP...
Looks like some BR early...burning off by 13z. Then vfr through
period with high clouds dropping to mid clouds ;ate in taf period.
Mentioned vcsh after 15z Fri for the next chance of -shra moving
in.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 200838
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The short term concern is timing next bout of convection later
tonight.

The heavy rain producing convection has exited the cwa for the most
part. We did receive 2 to 5 inches of rain from the south metro to
along the Mississippi River to the southeast. Should be a mainly dry
day into this evening as the frontal boundary sags farther south
into Iowa and high pressure builds into the state. Some patchy fog
developed into central MN as the clouds cleared and this should burn
off quickly this morning. High temperatures are expected to warm
through the 80s.

Later tonight we see return flow/low level waa developing to the
southwest along with a possible short wave moving into southwest MN
from South Dakota. We will retain the chance PoPs for that
development later tonight. Clouds will thicken over the southwest as
well. Farther east, with light winds and the possibility of a mostly
clear sky much of the night, we could see some patchy fog develop
into west central WI later tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

In the big picture, we`ll see fairly zonal upper flow on Friday
transition to northwest flow by sunday with cooler and drier air
working into the region. However, an upper trough looks to dig
along the west coast during the first half of next week, leading
to the redevelopment of upper ridging over the center of the CONUS
by Tuesday/Wednesday. This looks to remain in place through the
remainder of the week. So, although we briefly see temperatures
dip below normal for Sunday/Monday things should quickly return to
at or above normal values for the remainder of the period.

In terms of the details, the main concern will be the possibility
for a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday, with locally heavy rainfall and some possibility of
severe weather again. The warm frontal boundary looks to get up
into the southern portion of the area on Friday as a weak surface
low slowly moves east from the central and northern Plains. Plenty
of instability and moisture will be present across the southern
half of the area, so the modest warm advection forecast should be
more than sufficient to get showers and thunderstorms going again
on Friday. The steering flow looks to be somewhat parallel to the
baroclinic zone and instability gradient, so some training of
storms seems possible, which would lead to a heavy rain threat,
particularly over the southern portion of the area. The surface
low will slowly push east Friday night and Saturday, working into
the lower Great Lakes by Saturday night. The guidance is
consistent in showing an inverted trough/occluded front north of
the surface low, and we may see additional showers and storms
develop near/ahead of that on Saturday, primarily impacting
locations near and east of I-35. The main cold front looks to drop
south across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with
high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday. We`ll get on the
backside of the surface high by Monday night and Tuesday, with
return flow setting up and a renewed chance of showers and
thunderstorms working in from west to east Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The guidance has some significant differences at that point
in time with respect to how far north the baroclinic zone and low
level moisture return, and don`t have particular confidence in any
specific solution at this point. The GFS would hang onto more in
the way of northwest flow into the second half of the week, while
the Canadian is more agressive in building the ridge over the
area. A compromise may be best at this point, which the ECMWF
somewhat suggests. Regardless, it appears we`ll be near the
periphery of the ridge and instability gradient, so chances for
showers and thunderstorms look to be a good bet into at least
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Still have WAA wing of convection from the metro east into
western WI. This may linger much of the night. Some convection to
the southwest as well...and there is an outflow boundary that
developed from the earlier convection around the metro...that
worked to the KMKT area. This may interact with the southern
activity during the night and if this did develop further would
impede some of the better WAA into the eastern area. Expect some
MVFR cigs and some BR to develop over the central areas during the
night as the convection moves east and lower levels remain nearly
saturated. THis should all burn off through 13z with some high
clouds around into Thursday evening. Winds will be generally n-ne
during the period generally less than 10kts.

KMSP...
Could still see a threat of thunder through 07z-08z but most HIRES
solution exit it to the est and south. Still could see some MVFR
cigs and BR in the wake of the system but should become VFR
through 13z Thu.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200828
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

An area of high pressure near the border between North Dakota and
Canada will shift into Minnesota today. The surface ridge axis
will be just to the west and south of the Northland, so light to
breezy northwest flow will develop by this afternoon. Despite the
flow, the lack of cool air advection and relatively dry air will
mean it will even be difficult to produce any cumulus. It should
be a truly sunny day. Highs will be in the upper 70s to middle
80s. Some of the warmest areas in the forecast include the lower
elevation areas of Duluth and along the North Shore because of
the typical downslope warming from the northwest flow.

The surface ridge will move through the Northland tonight,
promoting clear skies and calm conditions. Winds and cloud cover
will begin to increase from the west late tonight as the surface
ridge departs and lower pressure approaches from the west. This
means the coolest overnight temperatures will be across the
eastern forecast area. Leaned on the cooler model guidance, such
as the consensus of the GFS MOS and NAM MOS. Lows should range
from the low 50s in the Arrowhead, to the middle 50s in northwest
Wisconsin, and to upper 50s to low 60s from central to north-
central Minnesota. There is a low chance of showers and very weak
storms (as suggested by the 00Z GFS) across the far northwest
forecast area, west of Bigfork and International Falls, due to a
potential mid- level frontogenetical band and passing weak
shortwaves.

An area of low pressure lee of the Rocky Mountains in the Northern
High Plains will advance east into the Dakotas Friday. The
associated warm front will be well south and west of the
Northland, but south-southeast flow will bring an influx of
humidity northwards into the Northland. However, the approaching
low pressure will stimulate the typical easterly, cool outflow
from Lake Superior. This will set up a stationary boundary across
the southern forecast area. Daytime heating will build up
instability from the west, with as much as 500 to 1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE across the southern and western forecast area. Passing
shortwaves and the stationary boundary across the southern
forecast area may provide enough forcing to generate some showers
and storms. If storms develop, they may become organized and
strong thanks to plenty of deep layer wind shear. There will
likely be at least 35 to 45 knots of 0-6 km wind shear. Highs
should range from the middle 70s near Lake Superior to the upper
70s and low 80s inland.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A stronger shortwave will continue to move from southern
Saskatchewan Friday evening to the Manitoba, northwest Ontario,
northern Minnesota region by Saturday evening. A surface low and
frontal boundary will be over the Northern Plains to the shortwave
Friday evening and will move into southeast Minnesota but extend
northwest into Manitoba by 12Z Saturday. It will continue east
Saturday into Saturday night with much of the region in a cooler
northwest flow by 12Z Sunday per both the GFS and ECMWF. The NAM
is slower.

There will be plenty of moisture across the region Friday night
into Saturday evening as PWAT values rise to 1 to around 1.5
inches...a bit higher from the NAM. The instability will be on the
increase as well. Showers and storms will be possible Friday
night becoming more likely overnight into Saturday as the
shortwave and low approach the region. The NAM and GFS also show
some areas of low level FGEN which would enhance lift. There isn`t
great agreement between the models on the exact location of the
FGEN and we may have to wait another 24 hours or so to get a
better handle on where it will set up for Friday night. There will
be a chance for strong to severe storms over much of the area
Friday night into Saturday evening. Heavy rain will be an
additional threat, especially near the stronger low level FGEN.

As the low and front pass through the region Saturday night into
Sunday, cooler air will be moving in and the severe threat will be
low. Showers and a few storms will remain possible Sunday but it
will then dry out Sunday night into Monday as high pressure
temporarily builds in.

There will be chances for showers/storms Tuesday/Wednesday. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show a front and shortwave moving through the
area but have some timing differences.

High temperatures Saturday will range from around 70 in the
Arrowhead to around 80 in the Brainerd Lakes region east toward
Siren. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to middle seventies with
temperatures warming to the mid to upper seventies by next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

MVFR to LIFR fog possible tonight at all sites, with the highest
risk for IFR or worse visibility at BRD, HIB, and HYR. Clear skies
and VFR conditions will then prevail when fog clears out Thursday
morning. Light northwest wind developing Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  83  59  78  59 /   0   0  20  20
INL  76  54  80  59 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  85  62  81  63 /   0   0  40  30
HYR  85  55  81  62 /   0   0  30  30
ASX  85  55  80  58 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200534
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Made adjustments to POPs/Weather this evening as confidence in an
evening line of storms developing in east-central Minnesota into
northwest Wisconsin is lower than earlier based on current
conditions and short-range model guidance. Did not eliminate
chances since some storms may still develop, but based on the SPC
Mesoanalysis instability fields it appears the most widespread
storms would be just on the southern CWA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Chances of showers and thunderstorms could increase this evening,
especially over our southern portions of the forecast area, as
skies look to clear from west to east this afternoon. A
baroclinic zone and CAPE gradient will be draped from northwest to
southeast just south of our southern forecast area boundary. In
general, confidence is rather low for much in the way of showers
and thunderstorms over the area. The latest convective-allowing
models are generally progging a band of strong to severe
thunderstorms along our southern counties, but there is some
disagreement among the models regarding the placement of this
band, as well as the location of convective initiation. The
19.12z GFS and NAM models are indicating a lack of robust
instability across our south, as MLCAPE values range between 300
to 700 J/kg, and the axis of the highest instability looks to
remain to the south. We are also on the northern cusp of the
stronger moisture transport, with the GFS and NAM models
disagreeing on the magnitude of Pwat values. In any case, the axis
of the heaviest rainfall will remain to the south. My suspicion
is that the majority of the strongest thunderstorms will remain to
our south where the higher instability will remain. However, one
or two strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for our
southern counties due to the northern gradient of MLCAPE nosing
into the Northland, especially over portions of east-central
Minnesota and southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. If any
strong/severe convection develops over our area, it will likely be
later this evening after 8 to 9 PM CDT, according to the CAMs. The
biggest threats with any strong to severe convection would be
large hail and damaging winds, but confidence is low we could see
anything to this regard.

Overnight: some areas of fog could develop in the wake of the
baroclinic zone that should depart the region later tonight,
especially where it rains this evening. Some chances of showers
and storms will linger over northwest Wisconsin during the early
morning hours Thursday before an area of high pressure moves in
and takes control, bringing mostly sunny skies across the
Northland. High temperatures Thursday will reach to near or above
average, with highs in the upper 70s over the Minnesota Arrowhead
and the lower to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the longer term period the northland will remain under the
northern branch of the westerlies. This will bring a series of waves
across the region every other day or so, meaning a stormy period.

To begin the period Thursday night surface high pressure will be
over the region. On Friday the high will slide to the east and
another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop as return
flow results in surface and low level warm air advection. So on
Friday afternoon and overnight especially we may see a round of
thunderstorms moving northward from southern MN and WI. It looks
like the better chance for stronger and more widespread
thunderstorms will be Saturday when a significant Canadian upper
level wave and a surface cold front will swing through the
northland. The surface will feature a warm frontal boundary south of
the northland and with plenty of instability (CAPE well over 2500
j/kg) thunderstorms are a good bet. The SPC has outlined much of the
northland in the severe threat area for Saturday. There will likely
be residual showers and storms on Sunday, then high pressure will
bring a calmer day on Monday until yet another upper level Canadian
low approaches to bring another round of storms for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

MVFR to LIFR fog possible tonight at all sites, with the highest
risk for IFR or worse visibility at BRD, HIB, and HYR. Clear skies
and VFR conditions will then prevail when fog clears out Thursday
morning. Light northwest wind developing Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  83  60  78 /  10   0   0  10
INL  54  79  56  81 /  10   0  10  10
BRD  59  85  62  81 /  10   0   0  20
HYR  60  84  59  80 /  30  10   0  30
ASX  58  85  57  80 /  30   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...Melde/JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 200514
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE for 06z aviation discussion below..

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Ongoing severe MCS will exit to the southeast quickly late this
afternoon. The forecast then becomes quite uncertain for this
evening and overnight with convective redevelopment possible
across central Minnesota. The atmosphere seems to be recovering
somewhat across South Dakota and there have been a few cells over
west central MN this afternoon. The HRRR would imply an east-west
line of storms developing between 02-03Z across central MN and
progress southeast for the rest of the evening into the early
overnight hours. This activity would contain a large hail threat,
although some damaging wind gusts are also possible. The biggest
threat will be heavy rainfall with training cells, but CAMs seem
to keep the line progressing southward which would limit flash
flooding potential.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the extend, we`ll see our zonal flow transition over to
northwest flow this weekend, before going back more zonal by the
middle of next week. Most concerning period looks to Thursday night
into Friday, when another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall
looks possible.

Our dry weather Thursday will be short lived as moisture quickly
returns Thursday night from Nebraska toward southwest MN. Most of
the guidance is in agreement with an elevated band of thunderstorms
working into southwest MN. This will push the warm front back into
southern MN Friday afternoon, and guidance is in good agreement on
storms firing off along this front and heading southeast toward
Chicago Friday night. Some discrepancies with how far north this,
but we followed the more southern solutions for QPF Friday, like the
GFS for Friday as what are seeing today has tracked south of even
what the southern models had. Moisture, instability, and shear
parameters all look similar to what we are seeing today, so all
modes of severe weather will be possible, but upscale growth to an
MCS looks likely, probably tracking from south central MN over
toward southern lower Michigan.

For the weekend, it is looking up weather wise, as a secondary
shortwave in the increasingly northwest low drops across northeast MN
toward the U.P. of Michigan, with the majority of activity Saturday
night into Sunday staying off to our northeast.

We`ll have dry weather to start next week, but by Tuesday, moisture
will be surging back north across the Plains, with thunderstorm
chances returning Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front works into
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Still have WAA wing of convection from the metro east into
western WI. This may linger much of the night. Some convection to
the southwest as well...and there is an outflow boundary that
developed from the earlier convection around the metro...that
worked to the KMKT area. This may interact with the southern
activity during the night and if this did develop further would
impede some of the better WAA into the eastern area. Expect some
MVFR cigs and some BR to develop over the central areas during the
night as the convection moves east and lower levels remain nearly
saturated. THis should all burn off through 13z with some high
clouds around into Thursday evening. Winds will be generally n-ne
during the period generally less than 10kts.

KMSP...
Could still see a threat of thunder through 07z-08z but most HIRES
solution exit it to the est and south. Still could see some MVFR
cigs and BR in the wake of the system but should become VFR
through 13z Thu.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     WIZ023>026-028.

MN...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     MNZ058>060-062-063-066>070-076>078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 192327
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
627 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Made adjustments to POPs/Weather this evening as confidence in an
evening line of storms developing in east-central Minnesota into
northwest Wisconsin is lower than earlier based on current
conditions and short-range model guidance. Did not eliminate
chances since some storms may still develop, but based on the SPC
Mesoanalysis instability fields it appears the most widespread
storms would be just on the southern CWA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Chances of showers and thunderstorms could increase this evening,
especially over our southern portions of the forecast area, as
skies look to clear from west to east this afternoon. A
baroclinic zone and CAPE gradient will be draped from northwest to
southeast just south of our southern forecast area boundary. In
general, confidence is rather low for much in the way of showers
and thunderstorms over the area. The latest convective-allowing
models are generally progging a band of strong to severe
thunderstorms along our southern counties, but there is some
disagreement among the models regarding the placement of this
band, as well as the location of convective initiation. The
19.12z GFS and NAM models are indicating a lack of robust
instability across our south, as MLCAPE values range between 300
to 700 J/kg, and the axis of the highest instability looks to
remain to the south. We are also on the northern cusp of the
stronger moisture transport, with the GFS and NAM models
disagreeing on the magnitude of Pwat values. In any case, the axis
of the heaviest rainfall will remain to the south. My suspicion
is that the majority of the strongest thunderstorms will remain to
our south where the higher instability will remain. However, one
or two strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for our
southern counties due to the northern gradient of MLCAPE nosing
into the Northland, especially over portions of east-central
Minnesota and southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. If any
strong/severe convection develops over our area, it will likely be
later this evening after 8 to 9 PM CDT, according to the CAMs. The
biggest threats with any strong to severe convection would be
large hail and damaging winds, but confidence is low we could see
anything to this regard.

Overnight: some areas of fog could develop in the wake of the
baroclinic zone that should depart the region later tonight,
especially where it rains this evening. Some chances of showers
and storms will linger over northwest Wisconsin during the early
morning hours Thursday before an area of high pressure moves in
and takes control, bringing mostly sunny skies across the
Northland. High temperatures Thursday will reach to near or above
average, with highs in the upper 70s over the Minnesota Arrowhead
and the lower to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the longer term period the northland will remain under the
northern branch of the westerlies. This will bring a series of waves
across the region every other day or so, meaning a stormy period.

To begin the period Thursday night surface high pressure will be
over the region. On Friday the high will slide to the east and
another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop as return
flow results in surface and low level warm air advection. So on
Friday afternoon and overnight especially we may see a round of
thunderstorms moving northward from southern MN and WI. It looks
like the better chance for stronger and more widespread
thunderstorms will be Saturday when a significant Canadian upper
level wave and a surface cold front will swing through the
northland. The surface will feature a warm frontal boundary south of
the northland and with plenty of instability (CAPE well over 2500
j/kg) thunderstorms are a good bet. The SPC has outlined much of the
northland in the severe threat area for Saturday. There will likely
be residual showers and storms on Sunday, then high pressure will
bring a calmer day on Monday until yet another upper level Canadian
low approaches to bring another round of storms for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

MVFR to LIFR fog possible tonight, mainly at BRD with a chance at
HIB, HYR, and DLH after midnight. Confidence in showers/storms
this evening is below normal - some scattered showers and storms
may develop in the next few hours, but since it is also possible
little to no storms develop have kept precip mention in TAFs to
VCSH. Will update this if radar and satellite imagery depicts new
storms developing. Otherwise fog late tonight at some sites,
clearing out Thursday morning. Clear skies and a light northwest
wind through the day Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  83  60  78 /  50   0   0  10
INL  54  79  56  81 /  10   0  10  10
BRD  59  85  62  81 /  60   0   0  20
HYR  60  84  59  80 /  70  10   0  30
ASX  58  85  57  80 /  60   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 192259
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Ongoing severe MCS will exit to the southeast quickly late this
afternoon. The forecast then becomes quite uncertain for this
evening and overnight with convective redevelopment possible
across central Minnesota. The atmosphere seems to be recovering
somewhat across South Dakota and there have been a few cells over
west central MN this afternoon. The HRRR would imply an east-west
line of storms developing between 02-03Z across central MN and
progress southeast for the rest of the evening into the early
overnight hours. This activity would contain a large hail threat,
although some damaging wind gusts are also possible. The biggest
threat will be heavy rainfall with training cells, but CAMs seem
to keep the line progressing southward which would limit flash
flooding potential.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the extend, we`ll see our zonal flow transition over to
northwest flow this weekend, before going back more zonal by the
middle of next week. Most concerning period looks to Thursday night
into Friday, when another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall
looks possible.

Our dry weather Thursday will be short lived as moisture quickly
returns Thursday night from Nebraska toward southwest MN. Most of
the guidance is in agreement with an elevated band of thunderstorms
working into southwest MN. This will push the warm front back into
southern MN Friday afternoon, and guidance is in good agreement on
storms firing off along this front and heading southeast toward
Chicago Friday night. Some discrepancies with how far north this,
but we followed the more southern solutions for QPF Friday, like the
GFS for Friday as what are seeing today has tracked south of even
what the southern models had. Moisture, instability, and shear
parameters all look similar to what we are seeing today, so all
modes of severe weather will be possible, but upscale growth to an
MCS looks likely, probably tracking from south central MN over
toward southern lower Michigan.

For the weekend, it is looking up weather wise, as a secondary
shortwave in the increasingly northwest low drops across northeast MN
toward the U.P. of Michigan, with the majority of activity Saturday
night into Sunday staying off to our northeast.

We`ll have dry weather to start next week, but by Tuesday, moisture
will be surging back north across the Plains, with thunderstorm
chances returning Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front works into
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

In the wake of the showers and storms there will be a period of
benign weather, but another round of storms may develop across
central MN/WI after 03z into the overnight hours. MVFR cigs/vsbys
would be possible attendant with the storms, including patchy fog
and MVFR cigs in the wake of the precip with the warm front
stretched across the area. After daybreak Thursday clear skies
will prevail with northwest winds of 7-10 knots.

KMSP...
The next round of storms looks to develop around 03z, and persist
through around 07z. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible during that
time, and cigs around 1500 feet may linger through the morning
push. After 14z clear skies and northwest winds around 8 knots
prevail.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 192146
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
446 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Long term discussion added.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Ongoing severe MCS will exit to the southeast quickly late this
afternoon. The forecast then becomes quite uncertain for this
evening and overnight with convective redevelopment possible
across central Minnesota. The atmosphere seems to be recovering
somewhat across South Dakota and there have been a few cells over
west central MN this afternoon. The HRRR would imply an east-west
line of storms developing between 02-03Z across central MN and
progress southeast for the rest of the evening into the early
overnight hours. This activity would contain a large hail threat,
although some damaging wind gusts are also possible. The biggest
threat will be heavy rainfall with training cells, but CAMs seem
to keep the line progressing southward which would limit flash
flooding potential.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the extend, we`ll see our zonal flow transition over to
northwest flow this weekend, before going back more zonal by the
middle of next week. Most concerning period looks to Thursday night
into Friday, when another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall
looks possible.

Our dry weather Thursday will be short lived as moisture quickly
returns Thursday night from Nebraska toward southwest MN. Most of
the guidance is in agreement with an elevated band of thunderstorms
working into southwest MN. This will push the warm front back into
southern MN Friday afternoon, and guidance is in good agreement on
storms firing off along this front and heading southeast toward
Chicago Friday night. Some discrepancies with how far north this,
but we followed the more southern solutions for QPF Friday, like the
GFS for Friday as what are seeing today has tracked south of even
what the southern models had. Moisture, instability, and shear
parameters all look similar to what we are seeing today, so all
modes of severe weather will be possible, but upscale growth to an
MCS looks likely, probably tracking from south central MN over
toward southern lower Michigan.

For the weekend, it is looking up weather wise, as a secondary
shortwave in the increasingly northwest low drops across northeast MN
toward the U.P. of Michigan, with the majority of activity Saturday
night into Sunday staying off to our northeast.

We`ll have dry weather to start next week, but by Tuesday, moisture
will be surging back north across the Plains, with thunderstorm
chances returning Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front works into
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will push east across MN this afternoon
with severe storms expected to track south of the MN river, likely
south of MKT and RWF. After this round, another may develop across
central MN this evening and push southeast tonight. VFR conditions
expected outside of precipitation until late tonight when MVFR
cigs may develop.

KMSP...Should see some showers pushing in between 20-21Z and
persist for a couple hours. Embedded thunderstorms are expected.
Confidence is quite low tonight, but another round of storms may
develop mid to late evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 192124
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Ongoing severe MCS will exit to the southeast quickly late this
afternoon. The forecast then becomes quite uncertain for this
evening and overnight with convective redevelopment possible
across central Minnesota. The atmosphere seems to be recovering
somewhat across South Dakota and there have been a few cells over
west central MN this afternoon. The HRRR would imply an east-west
line of storms developing between 02-03Z across central MN and
progress southeast for the rest of the evening into the early
overnight hours. This activity would contain a large hail threat,
although some damaging wind gusts are also possible. The biggest
threat will be heavy rainfall with training cells, but CAMs seem
to keep the line progressing southward which would limit flash
flooding potential.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Will be updated later.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will push east across MN this afternoon
with severe storms expected to track south of the MN river, likely
south of MKT and RWF. After this round, another may develop across
central MN this evening and push southeast tonight. VFR conditions
expected outside of precipitation until late tonight when MVFR
cigs may develop.

KMSP...Should see some showers pushing in between 20-21Z and
persist for a couple hours. Embedded thunderstorms are expected.
Confidence is quite low tonight, but another round of storms may
develop mid to late evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 192053
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
353 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Chances of showers and thunderstorms could increase this evening,
especially over our southern portions of the forecast area, as
skies look to clear from west to east this afternoon. A
baroclinic zone and CAPE gradient will be draped from northwest to
southeast just south of our southern forecast area boundary. In
general, confidence is rather low for much in the way of showers
and thunderstorms over the area. The latest convective-allowing
models are generally progging a band of strong to severe
thunderstorms along our southern counties, but there is some
disagreement among the models regarding the placement of this
band, as well as the location of convective initiation. The
19.12z GFS and NAM models are indicating a lack of robust
instability across our south, as MLCAPE values range between 300
to 700 J/kg, and the axis of the highest instability looks to
remain to the south. We are also on the northern cusp of the
stronger moisture transport, with the GFS and NAM models
disagreeing on the magnitude of Pwat values. In any case, the axis
of the heaviest rainfall will remain to the south. My suspicion
is that the majority of the strongest thunderstorms will remain to
our south where the higher instability will remain. However, one
or two strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for our
southern counties due to the northern gradient of MLCAPE nosing
into the Northland, especially over portions of east-central
Minnesota and southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. If any
strong/severe convection develops over our area, it will likely be
later this evening after 8 to 9 PM CDT, according to the CAMs. The
biggest threats with any strong to severe convection would be
large hail and damaging winds, but confidence is low we could see
anything to this regard.

Overnight: some areas of fog could develop in the wake of the
baroclinic zone that should depart the region later tonight,
especially where it rains this evening. Some chances of showers
and storms will linger over northwest Wisconsin during the early
morning hours Thursday before an area of high pressure moves in
and takes control, bringing mostly sunny skies across the
Northland. High temperatures Thursday will reach to near or above
average, with highs in the upper 70s over the Minnesota Arrowhead
and the lower to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the longer term period the northland will remain under the
northern branch of the westerlies. This will bring a series of waves
across the region every other day or so, meaning a stormy period.

To begin the period Thursday night surface high pressure will be
over the region. On Friday the high will slide to the east and
another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop as return
flow results in surface and low level warm air advection. So on
Friday afternoon and overnight especially we may see a round of
thunderstorms moving northward from southern MN and WI. It looks
like the better chance for stronger and more widespread
thunderstorms will be Saturday when a significant Canadian upper
level wave and a surface cold front will swing through the
northland. The surface will feature a warm frontal boundary south of
the northland and with plenty of instability (CAPE well over 2500
j/kg) thunderstorms are a good bet. The SPC has outlined much of the
northland in the severe threat area for Saturday. There will likely
be residual showers and storms on Sunday, then high pressure will
bring a calmer day on Monday until yet another upper level Canadian
low approaches to bring another round of storms for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Showers will be widely scattered over the forecast area this
afternoon and early this evening, but expect conditions to remain
VFR. However, there could be some lower ceilings and visibilities
as a storm or two could pass over KBRD. High pressure will build
into the region tonight and the resulting calm winds could help in
forming fog. Any fog will lift by 12z-13z timeframe leaving clear
skies and light winds the remainder of Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  83  60  78 /  50   0   0  10
INL  54  79  56  81 /  10   0  10  10
BRD  59  85  62  81 /  60   0   0  20
HYR  60  84  59  80 /  70  10   0  30
ASX  58  85  57  80 /  60   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 191754 AAC
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The short term concern is timing of possible severe convection and
heavy rain threat.

Surface cold front dropped south of the state into northern Iowa
last evening. Temperatures cooled nicely with light winds and clear
sky. Some fog developed in northeast cwa and will linger until
around sunrise and should burn off quickly. Focus turns to possible
development of large scale high wind severe weather event for much
of the cwa late this afternoon and through the evening.

Deterministic models have been pointing to this possibility now for
last several days and the 00z runs continue this trend. Water vapor
imagery showing rather vigorous short wave moving through eastern
Montana this morning and will be the forcing and focusing mechanism
for the MCS development over western central MN by early this
evening. SPC Day 1 outlook with its enhanced risk paints the
scenario and the HIRES ARW confirms our earlier thoughts regarding
the event. We should see development by evening to the west as the
short wave arrives and the warm front retreats to the north into
southwest MN. Capping should limit development there for a time.
Very unstable airmass in place and once development occurs, it
should become predominately upscale and become a forward propagating
MCS and ride the instability/CAPE gradient over the southern third
of the cwa this evening. General movement of the QPF bullseye/RAP
vort maxima gives a general 45 to 50kt southeast forward movement.
Still could be some spatial and temporal issues but they should
resolve themselves later this morning. Damaging winds, large hail
and an isolated tornado or two is possible. The tornado threat
should be mainly early in any discrete cell development and also
possible in the mature MCS/Bow Echo/QLCS. The severe weather threat
will likely end before 06z if models are correct due to fast forward
movement.

Heavy rain will be a threat with the storms as well, with
high PWs around 2 or 3 standard deviations above normal. We still
believe 2 to 3 inch an hour rainfall rates are likely but because of
the fast movement and antecedent soil conditions a widespread flash
flood threat is not anticipated at this time. Some HIRES models did
show some indication of continued convective development to the
northwest across southern MN after this complex moves through. This
is certainly possible and the nw-se orientation of the scattered
convection could pose some backbuilding threat later tonight. This
will have to be monitored as it could certainly increase the
potential flash flood threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

In the longer term we`ll see mainly zonal flow (albeit with a low
amplitude ridge over the center of the CONUS) evolve to cooler
northwest flow for our area by the second half of the weekend.
This pattern looks to stay in place through the first part of next
week, but indications are that ridging will build across the
center of the country again by the middle of next week. However,
there is certainly some disagreement on the guidance at that
point, so won`t be going all in on any particular solution at this
point, with a consensus approach looking to be the safest bet.

A weak ridge of high pressure and drier air will work into the
area on Thursday, with dry weather expected across the area.
However, low pressure will work into the Plains by Friday, helping
to lift the baroclinic zone and better moisture back north into
our area. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
into the area from southwest to northeast late Thursday night
into Friday night. The better forcing then looks to focus mainly north
of our area Saturday. Cold frontal boundary looks to drop south
through the area Saturday night and early Sunday, which won`t be
the ideal time for convection, but could still see some activity
Sunday, with the best chance looking to be over the southern and
eastern portion of the area where instability looks to be best as
forcing from the upper wave and low level boundary work through
the area.

High pressure will build over the region Sunday night and Monday,
with cooler and drier weather expected. We will then need to wait
for return flow to setup again, which looks to occur later Tuesday
into Wednesday as the 500 mb ridge builds to our west and the 850
mb theta-e ridge starts to work back into the area. The GFS and
ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that we`ll see some activity
develop in the return flow during that time frame, with chances
persisting into Wednesday as the warm frontal boundary sets up
shop nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will push east across MN this afternoon
with severe storms expected to track south of the MN river, likely
south of MKT and RWF. After this round, another may develop across
central MN this evening and push southeast tonight. VFR conditions
expected outside of precipitation until late tonight when MVFR
cigs may develop.

KMSP...Should see some showers pushing in between 20-21Z and
persist for a couple hours. Embedded thunderstorms are expected.
Confidence is quite low tonight, but another round of storms may
develop mid to late evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 191736 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

As of early this morning, an area of high pressure was centered
over central Minnesota. Much of the region had clear skies and
calm wind. There was some fog in parts of the Northland,
especially in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The high pressure will shift south and east into the Great Lakes
region today. Morning sunshine should quickly dissipate this
morning`s fog. Warm, southerly flow will develop by this
afternoon, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and low 80s.

A shortwave trough is expected to lift out of the Rocky Mountains
today into the Northern High Plains early this morning, then
track through the Dakotas later this morning and this afternoon,
before passing through Minnesota and Wisconsin late today.
Meanwhile, a warm front will push into the Dakotas as a low near
the lee of the Rocky Mountains moves into South Dakota. A plume of
instability likely extend into southern North Dakota, and it is
here at the pinnacle of the plume that a complex of thunderstorms
will likely develop, in part thanks to the shortwave(s) crossing
through the region. The models indicate the CAPE gradient will
extend east-southeast from the Dakotas to southern Minnesota into
southern Wisconsin. This complex, which will likely become an MCS,
will likely track down the CAPE gradient. This should keep the
MCS just south of the forecast area, where SPC has placed a slight
and enhanced risk for severe weather. Prefer models that keep
most of the precipitation south of the Northland, such as the GFS.
Some models, such as the NAM and HRRR, are indicating a more
northern solution that could affect more of the Northland than
this forecast. However, think these latter models` precipitation
are more a reflection of the large precipitation shield that
should develop with the MCS, but are indicating much more
precipitation than would likely occur with this precipitation
shield. While the precipitation shield would mainly bring rain,
have some thunder in the forecast considering the passing
shortwave could help trigger some isolated thunder. The MCS will
bring a threat of damaging winds, and this threat is primarily
south of the forecast area. It`s possible southern fringes of the
forecast area could get strong winds, too.

High pressure will build into the Northland tonight in the wake
of the passing shortwave and region`s MCS. Clear skies and calm
winds will develop by later in the night. Fog is possible for some
areas, especially across southern portions of the forecast that
get any significant rain today. That soil moisture would help
develop fog. Lows should range from the lower and middle 50s
across northern Minnesota, to the upper 50s and lower 60s from
central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Thursday looks warm
and sunny. Highs should be in the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Dry weather will continue into Thursday evening but then yet
another couple shortwaves will affect portions of the Northland
late and into Friday. Higher precipitable water values and CAPE
will exist just south of the Northland but will be drawn north as
high pressure slides off to the east. We have some small chances
for showers/storms just into our far northwest and southwest areas
late Thursday night with chances increasing on Friday, especially
south which will be affected by the stronger of the two waves and
closer to the higher moisture/instability. Highs will be in the
upper seventies to lower eighties for most areas.

Increasing southerly flow Friday night will increase moisture and
instability across the Northland. A stronger upper trough will be
moving across southern Canada toward the Northern Plains and be
centered over the northwest Ontario/northern Minnesota border by
00z Sunday. A surface low/front will move in as well and these
features will linger over at least eastern portions of the
Northland into Sunday night. There will be a chance for more
showers and storms Friday night into Sunday over much of the area
gradually shifting to mainly far northern and eastern areas Sunday
night. There will be at least low chances for severe storms
Friday afternoon into Saturday evening across parts of the area.
Highs Saturday will be in the lower seventies in the Arrowhead to
the lower eighties in the Brainerd Lakes area east through
Hinckley to Siren. Cooler air will move in Saturday night into
Sunday as northerly flow develops as the low moves east of the
area. Highs are expected in the lower to middle seventies.

High pressure will keep much of the region dry Monday with
chances for showers/storms returning to western areas Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Showers will be widely scattered over the forecast area this
afternoon and early this evening, but expect conditions to remain
VFR. However, there could be some lower ceilings and visibilities
as a storm or two could pass over KBRD. High pressure will build
into the region tonight and the resulting calm winds could help in
forming fog. Any fog will lift by 12z-13z timeframe leaving clear
skies and light winds the remainder of Thursdasy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  58  83  61 /  20  40   0   0
INL  79  54  81  57 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  79  60  85  63 /  30  40   0  10
HYR  82  60  84  59 /  10  50  10  10
ASX  84  58  84  58 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...G2
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 191557 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1057 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The activity over northern South Dakota is showing little signs of
weakening this morning. Cloud tops have not warmed and there have
been significant severe wind gusts over 75 mph already, meaning
that cluster is beginning to become rooted at the surface.
Therefore, confidence is quickly increasing that this may be the
main show this afternoon. There are generally two ways this could
go.

1.) The morning convection over SD does end up weakening. The
RAP/HRRR/NAM continues to favor this solution. In that case, the
threat would shift north with the warm front and end up being a
later event as the LLJ ramps up this evening. Storms would track
along or north of I-94 from mid to late evening.

2.) The now much more likely solution per latest trends favors
the NMM/ARW/GFS/ECMWF bringing that line in SD southeastward into
southwest MN by early to mid afternoon. Those models were a little
too far north and a couple hours slow. With the warm front and
instability gradient draped across the southwest corner of MN,
this would likely track along the MN River and south of the metro.
The line would likely maintain its intensity and bring the
potential for widespread wind damage across southern MN. This
severe MCS would clear southern MN by evening leaving uncertainty
with the position of the warm front, but could allow for
additional thunderstorm development this evening somewhere south
of I-94. If these storms don`t grow upscale into an MCS, we could
have training convection with repeated development on the west
end. Excessive rainfall/flash flooding threat would increase
accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The short term concern is timing of possible severe convection and
heavy rain threat.

Surface cold front dropped south of the state into northern Iowa
last evening. Temperatures cooled nicely with light winds and clear
sky. Some fog developed in northeast cwa and will linger until
around sunrise and should burn off quickly. Focus turns to possible
development of large scale high wind severe weather event for much
of the cwa late this afternoon and through the evening.

Deterministic models have been pointing to this possibility now for
last several days and the 00z runs continue this trend. Water vapor
imagery showing rather vigorous short wave moving through eastern
Montana this morning and will be the forcing and focusing mechanism
for the MCS development over western central MN by early this
evening. SPC Day 1 outlook with its enhanced risk paints the
scenario and the HIRES ARW confirms our earlier thoughts regarding
the event. We should see development by evening to the west as the
short wave arrives and the warm front retreats to the north into
southwest MN. Capping should limit development there for a time.
Very unstable airmass in place and once development occurs, it
should become predominately upscale and become a forward propagating
MCS and ride the instability/CAPE gradient over the southern third
of the cwa this evening. General movement of the QPF bullseye/RAP
vort maxima gives a general 45 to 50kt southeast forward movement.
Still could be some spatial and temporal issues but they should
resolve themselves later this morning. Damaging winds, large hail
and an isolated tornado or two is possible. The tornado threat
should be mainly early in any discrete cell development and also
possible in the mature MCS/Bow Echo/QLCS. The severe weather threat
will likely end before 06z if models are correct due to fast forward
movement.

Heavy rain will be a threat with the storms as well, with
high PWs around 2 or 3 standard deviations above normal. We still
believe 2 to 3 inch an hour rainfall rates are likely but because of
the fast movement and antecedent soil conditions a widespread flash
flood threat is not anticipated at this time. Some HIRES models did
show some indication of continued convective development to the
northwest across southern MN after this complex moves through. This
is certainly possible and the nw-se orientation of the scattered
convection could pose some backbuilding threat later tonight. This
will have to be monitored as it could certainly increase the
potential flash flood threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

In the longer term we`ll see mainly zonal flow (albeit with a low
amplitude ridge over the center of the CONUS) evolve to cooler
northwest flow for our area by the second half of the weekend.
This pattern looks to stay in place through the first part of next
week, but indications are that ridging will build across the
center of the country again by the middle of next week. However,
there is certainly some disagreement on the guidance at that
point, so won`t be going all in on any particular solution at this
point, with a consensus approach looking to be the safest bet.

A weak ridge of high pressure and drier air will work into the
area on Thursday, with dry weather expected across the area.
However, low pressure will work into the Plains by Friday, helping
to lift the baroclinic zone and better moisture back north into
our area. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
into the area from southwest to northeast late Thursday night
into Friday night. The better forcing then looks to focus mainly north
of our area Saturday. Cold frontal boundary looks to drop south
through the area Saturday night and early Sunday, which won`t be
the ideal time for convection, but could still see some activity
Sunday, with the best chance looking to be over the southern and
eastern portion of the area where instability looks to be best as
forcing from the upper wave and low level boundary work through
the area.

High pressure will build over the region Sunday night and Monday,
with cooler and drier weather expected. We will then need to wait
for return flow to setup again, which looks to occur later Tuesday
into Wednesday as the 500 mb ridge builds to our west and the 850
mb theta-e ridge starts to work back into the area. The GFS and
ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that we`ll see some activity
develop in the return flow during that time frame, with chances
persisting into Wednesday as the warm frontal boundary sets up
shop nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Some fog mainly over western WI to central MN burning off quickly
by 13z. Then focus turns to convective development. Looks like
latest CAMS are bring activity to the far northwest by 22z or so
then spreading southeast through 05z. Movement of the initial
complex may be southeast around 50kts. We may see some
redevelopment to southwest again after severe complex moves
through which would affect mainly KRWF/KMKT areas after 05z.
Otherwise, some mvfr cigs/stratus and possible fog developing with
overall clearing trend after 06z Thu. Main concern overnight is
fog/BR development, given clearing skies.

KMSP...
Patchy fog along the river could affect the airport through about
13z. Then vfr until timing of possible severe MCS which appears to
affect the area around 00z Thu. Timing may continue to be an issue
with ensembles all over the place with development
coverage/timing. Will have to monitor for possible convective
gusts as well. Should see acitivity move out after 04z-05z with
some stratus development possible and continuing through 14z Thu.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu night...VFR. chc MVFR -shra/-tsra late. NE 5 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 191139
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

As of early this morning, an area of high pressure was centered
over central Minnesota. Much of the region had clear skies and
calm wind. There was some fog in parts of the Northland,
especially in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The high pressure will shift south and east into the Great Lakes
region today. Morning sunshine should quickly dissipate this
morning`s fog. Warm, southerly flow will develop by this
afternoon, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and low 80s.

A shortwave trough is expected to lift out of the Rocky Mountains
today into the Northern High Plains early this morning, then
track through the Dakotas later this morning and this afternoon,
before passing through Minnesota and Wisconsin late today.
Meanwhile, a warm front will push into the Dakotas as a low near
the lee of the Rocky Mountains moves into South Dakota. A plume of
instability likely extend into southern North Dakota, and it is
here at the pinnacle of the plume that a complex of thunderstorms
will likely develop, in part thanks to the shortwave(s) crossing
through the region. The models indicate the CAPE gradient will
extend east-southeast from the Dakotas to southern Minnesota into
southern Wisconsin. This complex, which will likely become an MCS,
will likely track down the CAPE gradient. This should keep the
MCS just south of the forecast area, where SPC has placed a slight
and enhanced risk for severe weather. Prefer models that keep
most of the precipitation south of the Northland, such as the GFS.
Some models, such as the NAM and HRRR, are indicating a more
northern solution that could affect more of the Northland than
this forecast. However, think these latter models` precipitation
are more a reflection of the large precipitation shield that
should develop with the MCS, but are indicating much more
precipitation than would likely occur with this precipitation
shield. While the precipitation shield would mainly bring rain,
have some thunder in the forecast considering the passing
shortwave could help trigger some isolated thunder. The MCS will
bring a threat of damaging winds, and this threat is primarily
south of the forecast area. It`s possible southern fringes of the
forecast area could get strong winds, too.

High pressure will build into the Northland tonight in the wake
of the passing shortwave and region`s MCS. Clear skies and calm
winds will develop by later in the night. Fog is possible for some
areas, especially across southern portions of the forecast that
get any significant rain today. That soil moisture would help
develop fog. Lows should range from the lower and middle 50s
across northern Minnesota, to the upper 50s and lower 60s from
central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Thursday looks warm
and sunny. Highs should be in the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Dry weather will continue into Thursday evening but then yet
another couple shortwaves will affect portions of the Northland
late and into Friday. Higher precipitable water values and CAPE
will exist just south of the Northland but will be drawn north as
high pressure slides off to the east. We have some small chances
for showers/storms just into our far northwest and southwest areas
late Thursday night with chances increasing on Friday, especially
south which will be affected by the stronger of the two waves and
closer to the higher moisture/instability. Highs will be in the
upper seventies to lower eighties for most areas.

Increasing southerly flow Friday night will increase moisture and
instability across the Northland. A stronger upper trough will be
moving across southern Canada toward the Northern Plains and be
centered over the northwest Ontario/northern Minnesota border by
00z Sunday. A surface low/front will move in as well and these
features will linger over at least eastern portions of the
Northland into Sunday night. There will be a chance for more
showers and storms Friday night into Sunday over much of the area
gradually shifting to mainly far northern and eastern areas Sunday
night. There will be at least low chances for severe storms
Friday afternoon into Saturday evening across parts of the area.
Highs Saturday will be in the lower seventies in the Arrowhead to
the lower eighties in the Brainerd Lakes area east through
Hinckley to Siren. Cooler air will move in Saturday night into
Sunday as northerly flow develops as the low moves east of the
area. Highs are expected in the lower to middle seventies.

High pressure will keep much of the region dry Monday with
chances for showers/storms returning to western areas Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

High pressure was over the Northland early this morning with
patchy fog occurring in spots producing MVFR to LIFR conditions.
Skies were mostly clear and the fog will lift quickly this
morning. As the high moves east today the wind will turn south to
southeast for most areas. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
move into northern Minnesota this afternoon and northern Wisconsin
late afternoon or evening. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible over far southern areas.

The showers/storms will end later this evening then expect more
fog tonight. Conditions may again lower to IFR/LIFR in spots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  58  83  61 /  20  20   0   0
INL  79  54  81  57 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  79  60  85  63 /  30  40   0  10
HYR  82  60  84  59 /  10  50  10  10
ASX  83  58  84  58 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...G2
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KMPX 191058
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
558 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The short term concern is timing of possible severe convection and
heavy rain threat.

Surface cold front dropped south of the state into northern Iowa
last evening. Temperatures cooled nicely with light winds and clear
sky. Some fog developed in northeast cwa and will linger until
around sunrise and should burn off quickly. Focus turns to possible
development of large scale high wind severe weather event for much
of the cwa late this afternoon and through the evening.

Deterministic models have been pointing to this possibility now for
last several days and the 00z runs continue this trend. Water vapor
imagery showing rather vigorous short wave moving through eastern
Montana this morning and will be the forcing and focusing mechanism
for the MCS development over western central MN by early this
evening. SPC Day 1 outlook with its enhanced risk paints the
scenario and the HIRES ARW confirms our earlier thoughts regarding
the event. We should see development by evening to the west as the
short wave arrives and the warm front retreats to the north into
southwest MN. Capping should limit development there for a time.
Very unstable airmass in place and once development occurs, it
should become predominately upscale and become a forward propagating
MCS and ride the instability/CAPE gradient over the southern third
of the cwa this evening. General movement of the QPF bullseye/RAP
vort maxima gives a general 45 to 50kt southeast forward movement.
Still could be some spatial and temporal issues but they should
resolve themselves later this morning. Damaging winds, large hail
and an isolated tornado or two is possible. The tornado threat
should be mainly early in any discrete cell development and also
possible in the mature MCS/Bow Echo/QLCS. The severe weather threat
will likely end before 06z if models are correct due to fast forward
movement.

Heavy rain will be a threat with the storms as well, with
high PWs around 2 or 3 standard deviations above normal. We still
believe 2 to 3 inch an hour rainfall rates are likely but because of
the fast movement and antecedent soil conditions a widespread flash
flood threat is not anticipated at this time. Some HIRES models did
show some indication of continued convective development to the
northwest across southern MN after this complex moves through. This
is certainly possible and the nw-se orientation of the scattered
convection could pose some backbuilding threat later tonight. This
will have to be monitored as it could certainly increase the
potential flash flood threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

In the longer term we`ll see mainly zonal flow (albeit with a low
amplitude ridge over the center of the CONUS) evolve to cooler
northwest flow for our area by the second half of the weekend.
This pattern looks to stay in place through the first part of next
week, but indications are that ridging will build across the
center of the country again by the middle of next week. However,
there is certainly some disagreement on the guidance at that
point, so won`t be going all in on any particular solution at this
point, with a consensus approach looking to be the safest bet.

A weak ridge of high pressure and drier air will work into the
area on Thursday, with dry weather expected across the area.
However, low pressure will work into the Plains by Friday, helping
to lift the baroclinic zone and better moisture back north into
our area. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
into the area from southwest to northeast late Thursday night
into Friday night. The better forcing then looks to focus mainly north
of our area Saturday. Cold frontal boundary looks to drop south
through the area Saturday night and early Sunday, which won`t be
the ideal time for convection, but could still see some activity
Sunday, with the best chance looking to be over the southern and
eastern portion of the area where instability looks to be best as
forcing from the upper wave and low level boundary work through
the area.

High pressure will build over the region Sunday night and Monday,
with cooler and drier weather expected. We will then need to wait
for return flow to setup again, which looks to occur later Tuesday
into Wednesday as the 500 mb ridge builds to our west and the 850
mb theta-e ridge starts to work back into the area. The GFS and
ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that we`ll see some activity
develop in the return flow during that time frame, with chances
persisting into Wednesday as the warm frontal boundary sets up
shop nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Some fog mainly over western WI to central MN burning off quickly
by 13z. Then focus turns to convective development. Looks like
latest CAMS are bring activity to the far northwest by 22z or so
then spreading southeast through 05z. Movement of the initial
complex may be southeast around 50kts. We may see some
redevelopment to southwest again after severe complex moves
through which would affect mainly KRWF/KMKT areas after 05z.
Otherwise, some mvfr cigs/stratus and possible fog developing with
overall clearing trend after 06z Thu. Main concern overnight is
fog/BR development, given clearing skies.

KMSP...
Patchy fog along the river could affect the airport through about
13z. Then vfr until timing of possible severe MCS which appears to
affect the area around 00z Thu. Timing may continue to be an issue
with ensembles all over the place with development
coverage/timing. Will have to monitor for possible convective
gusts as well. Should see acitivity move out after 04z-05z with
some stratus development possible and continuing through 14z Thu.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu night...VFR. chc MVFR -shra/-tsra late. NE 5 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 190843
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The short term concern is timing of possible severe convection and
heavy rain threat.

Surface cold front dropped south of the state into northern Iowa
last evening. Temperatures cooled nicely with light winds and clear
sky. Some fog developed in northeast cwa and will linger until
around sunrise and should burn off quickly. Focus turns to possible
development of large scale high wind severe weather event for much
of the cwa late this afternoon and through the evening.

Deterministic models have been pointing to this possibility now for
last several days and the 00z runs continue this trend. Water vapor
imagery showing rather vigorous short wave moving through eastern
Montana this morning and will be the forcing and focusing mechanism
for the MCS development over western central MN by early this
evening. SPC Day 1 outlook with its enhanced risk paints the
scenario and the HIRES ARW confirms our earlier thoughts regarding
the event. We should see development by evening to the west as the
short wave arrives and the warm front retreats to the north into
southwest MN. Capping should limit development there for a time.
Very unstable airmass in place and once development occurs, it
should become predominately upscale and become a forward propagating
MCS and ride the instability/CAPE gradient over the southern third
of the cwa this evening. General movement of the QPF bullseye/RAP
vort maxima gives a general 45 to 50kt southeast forward movement.
Still could be some spatial and temporal issues but they should
resolve themselves later this morning. Damaging winds, large hail
and an isolated tornado or two is possible. The tornado threat
should be mainly early in any discrete cell development and also
possible in the mature MCS/Bow Echo/QLCS. The severe weather threat
will likely end before 06z if models are correct due to fast forward
movement.

Heavy rain will be a threat with the storms as well, with
high PWs around 2 or 3 standard deviations above normal. We still
believe 2 to 3 inch an hour rainfall rates are likely but because of
the fast movement and antecedent soil conditions a widespread flash
flood threat is not anticipated at this time. Some HIRES models did
show some indication of continued convective development to the
northwest across southern MN after this complex moves through. This
is certainly possible and the nw-se orientation of the scattered
convection could pose some backbuilding threat later tonight. This
will have to be monitored as it could certainly increase the
potential flash flood threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

In the longer term we`ll see mainly zonal flow (albeit with a low
amplitude ridge over the center of the CONUS) evolve to cooler
northwest flow for our area by the second half of the weekend.
This pattern looks to stay in place through the first part of next
week, but indications are that ridging will build across the
center of the country again by the middle of next week. However,
there is certainly some disagreement on the guidance at that
point, so won`t be going all in on any particular solution at this
point, with a consensus approach looking to be the safest bet.

A weak ridge of high pressure and drier air will work into the
area on Thursday, with dry weather expected across the area.
However, low pressure will work into the Plains by Friday, helping
to lift the baroclinic zone and better moisture back north into
our area. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
into the area from southwest to northeast late Thursday night
into Friday night. The better forcing then looks to focus mainly north
of our area Saturday. Cold frontal boundary looks to drop south
through the area Saturday night and early Sunday, which won`t be
the ideal time for convection, but could still see some activity
Sunday, with the best chance looking to be over the southern and
eastern portion of the area where instability looks to be best as
forcing from the upper wave and low level boundary work through
the area.

High pressure will build over the region Sunday night and Monday,
with cooler and drier weather expected. We will then need to wait
for return flow to setup again, which looks to occur later Tuesday
into Wednesday as the 500 mb ridge builds to our west and the 850
mb theta-e ridge starts to work back into the area. The GFS and
ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that we`ll see some activity
develop in the return flow during that time frame, with chances
persisting into Wednesday as the warm frontal boundary sets up
shop nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Main concern overnight is fog/BR development, given clearing
skies, light winds, and recent rainfall. Have included a period of
3-6sm reductions overnight, with 2-3sm at west central WI sites
(KRNH/KEAU). The next concern is the trend some hi-res models are
showing in bringing in a round of showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow morning from the Dakotas. Have not bit off on that yet,
but will need to monitor trends over the Dakotas overnight. Still
expect the main window for strong storms to be late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Light northeast winds overnight shift to
the southeast on Wednesday and become gusty during the afternoon.

KMSP...
Could have some patchy BR development overnight with MVFR vsby
reductions. Still expect the storms to arrive after 00z Thursday,
but are monitoring trends of the hi-res models, with a couple
indicating convection arriving earlier to MSP (around 21z).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. NE 5 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 190823
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
323 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

As of early this morning, an area of high pressure was centered
over central Minnesota. Much of the region had clear skies and
calm wind. There was some fog in parts of the Northland,
especially in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The high pressure will shift south and east into the Great Lakes
region today. Morning sunshine should quickly dissipate this
morning`s fog. Warm, southerly flow will develop by this
afternoon, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and low 80s.

A shortwave trough is expected to lift out of the Rocky Mountains
today into the Northern High Plains early this morning, then
track through the Dakotas later this morning and this afternoon,
before passing through Minnesota and Wisconsin late today.
Meanwhile, a warm front will push into the Dakotas as a low near
the lee of the Rocky Mountains moves into South Dakota. A plume of
instability likely extend into southern North Dakota, and it is
here at the pinnacle of the plume that a complex of thunderstorms
will likely develop, in part thanks to the shortwave(s) crossing
through the region. The models indicate the CAPE gradient will
extend east-southeast from the Dakotas to southern Minnesota into
southern Wisconsin. This complex, which will likely become an MCS,
will likely track down the CAPE gradient. This should keep the
MCS just south of the forecast area, where SPC has placed a slight
and enhanced risk for severe weather. Prefer models that keep
most of the precipitation south of the Northland, such as the GFS.
Some models, such as the NAM and HRRR, are indicating a more
northern solution that could affect more of the Northland than
this forecast. However, think these latter models` precipitation
are more a reflection of the large precipitation shield that
should develop with the MCS, but are indicating much more
precipitation than would likely occur with this precipitation
shield. While the precipitation shield would mainly bring rain,
have some thunder in the forecast considering the passing
shortwave could help trigger some isolated thunder. The MCS will
bring a threat of damaging winds, and this threat is primarily
south of the forecast area. It`s possible southern fringes of the
forecast area could get strong winds, too.

High pressure will build into the Northland tonight in the wake
of the passing shortwave and region`s MCS. Clear skies and calm
winds will develop by later in the night. Fog is possible for some
areas, especially across southern portions of the forecast that
get any significant rain today. That soil moisture would help
develop fog. Lows should range from the lower and middle 50s
across northern Minnesota, to the upper 50s and lower 60s from
central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Thursday looks warm
and sunny. Highs should be in the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Dry weather will continue into Thursday evening but then yet
another couple shortwaves will affect portions of the Northland
late and into Friday. Higher precipitable water values and CAPE
will exist just south of the Northland but will be drawn north as
high pressure slides off to the east. We have some small chances
for showers/storms just into our far northwest and southwest areas
late Thursday night with chances increasing on Friday, especially
south which will be affected by the stronger of the two waves and
closer to the higher moisture/instability. Highs will be in the
upper seventies to lower eighties for most areas.

Increasing southerly flow Friday night will increase moisture and
instability across the Northland. A stronger upper trough will be
moving across southern Canada toward the Northern Plains and be
centered over the northwest Ontario/northern Minnesota border by
00z Sunday. A surface low/front will move in as well and these
features will linger over at least eastern portions of the
Northland into Sunday night. There will be a chance for more
showers and storms Friday night into Sunday over much of the area
gradually shifting to mainly far northern and eastern areas Sunday
night. There will be at least low chances for severe storms
Friday afternoon into Saturday evening across parts of the area.
Highs Saturday will be in the lower seventies in the Arrowhead to
the lower eighties in the Brainerd Lakes area east through
Hinckley to Siren. Cooler air will move in Saturday night into
Sunday as northerly flow develops as the low moves east of the
area. Highs are expected in the lower to middle seventies.

High pressure will keep much of the region dry Monday with
chances for showers/storms returning to western areas Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Fog may lead to as low as LIFR conditions overnight, most likely
at HYR with brief periods of fog possible at all sites. Satellite
imagery shows very weak indications of the fog despite occasional
reports from area ASOS/AWOS, which means the fog is fairly
transient and will be off and on through the morning. Conditions
improve to VFR Wednesday morning and remain VFR through the rest
of the TAF period Wednesday with the possibility for showers and
thunderstorms at some sites during the afternoon and evening
hours. Thunderstorms will be most likely at BRD in the afternoon
hours, but possible at all sites. However, since there remains the
possibility for storms to be south of all sites, will only
mention showers in this round of TAFs.

Calm winds overnight becoming southerly at 5-10 knots during the
day Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  58  83  61 /  20  20   0   0
INL  79  54  81  57 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  79  60  85  63 /  30  40   0  10
HYR  82  60  84  59 /  10  50  10  10
ASX  83  58  84  58 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...G2
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 190521
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Made some adjustments to lower overnight temperatures across the
Iron Range and points north, and expand fog mention in the
forecast tonight. Also nearly removed precipitation chances as the
last of the showers are just exiting Price County now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

At 20z, showers and isolated thunderstorms that have formed along a
cold front boundary will continue to advance eastward over northwest
Wisconsin. Currently, these storms are not severe, although some
stronger storms may develop over our far eastern counties of
northwest Wisconsin, with the main threats being large hail and
damaging winds. MLCAPE values will range from 500 to 1500 J/kg and
effective bulk shear in the 30 to 40 kt range along the front.
Additional support will be given by a mid-level shortwave trough
that will provide enhanced isentropic lift attendant with the front.
Some heavy rainfall will also be possible due to abundant moisture
ahead of the front. Pwat values look to range between 1.5 to 2.0",
which is >90% of climatology from the NAEFS analysis. So, some
ponding of water, and perhaps some localized flooding is possible,
especially over areas that were impacted from showers and storms
from yesterday. However, any strong to severe storms that do develop
will move off to the east quickly.

Overnight should be much quieter around the Northland as an area of
high pressure moves into the region. Mid-level zonal flow will
build, along with the high pressure. Skies will become mostly clear
overnight, except for some lingering clouds over north-central
Wisconsin. Due to the clear skies and light winds over Minnesota as
the high pressure ridge moves through the region, low temperatures
will drop rapidly tonight. Lows tonight could drop into the lower
50s and even lower 40s in some isolated spots over north-central
Minnesota. Most of the day Wednesday will be dry, but clouds will be
on the increase from west to east as another mid-level shortwave
quickly moves in behind the sfc high. I slowly increased POPs
Wednesday afternoon as this wave approaches. There is some
uncertainty how quickly to increase chances of precipitation as
there is disagreement between the convective-allowing models and the
synoptic models, so limited POPs before 00z Wednesday mainly over
the western one-half of the CWA. High temperatures Wednesday will
return to more seasonal values, into the lower 80s for most
locales.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

A typical mid summer pattern will continue throughout the long term
period, with warm air and periodic opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms. Wednesday night is the first such opportunity for
showers and storms, although there is some fairly strong
disagreement amongst the deterministic models. The 12Z NAM appears
to be the biggest outlier, bringing a large swath of precipitation
across much of the CWA Wednesday night. The GFS is furthest south,
generally south of our CWA entirely, while the ECMWF is a compromise
solution in between the NAM and GFS. SPC has issued a Slight Risk
for Severe Thunderstorms just south of our CWA, more in line with
the ECMWF and to some extent the GFS. Given those inconsistencies,
but favoring the ECMWF, will carry the highest POP`s across the
southern third of the Northland, with lesser POP`s northward. In any
regard, the best chance of severe thunderstorms, either from the
NAM, GFS or ECMWF would be south of our CWA. The main question is
whether MCS activity will develop further north as well. High
pressure will move in behind the system, bringing dry weather for
Thursday and most of Thursday night. Another shortwave and elongated
area of low pressure will move into the Northern Plains on Friday,
bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region
on Friday and early Friday evening. Saturday and Sunday represent
the best chance of showers and storms for this weekend, although
there are some pretty important differences between the GFS and
ECMWF. The ECMWF amplifies an upper level trough and surface low
over the Lake Superior region over the weekend, while the GFS
generally keeps it in Ontario. The differences are amplified over
the weekend and into early next week, so confidence in any
particular solution is fairly low. Highs throughout the period will
range from the 70s to lower 80s, while lows range from the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Fog may lead to as low as LIFR conditions overnight, most likely at
HYR with brief periods of fog possible at all sites. Satellite
imagery shows very weak indications of the fog despite occasional
reports from area ASOS/AWOS, which means the fog is fairly transient
and will be off and on through the morning. Conditions improve to
VFR Wednesday morning and remain VFR through the rest of the TAF
period Wednesday with the possibility for showers and thunderstorms
at some sites during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
will be most likely at BRD in the afternoon hours, but possible at
all sites. However, since there remains the possibility for storms
to be south of all sites, will only mention showers in this round of
TAFs.

Calm winds overnight becoming southerly at 5-10 knots during the day
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  59  83 /   0  10  30  10
INL  49  80  56  82 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  55  82  62  85 /   0  30  40  10
HYR  53  83  62  84 /  10  10  40  10
ASX  55  85  59  84 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Melde/JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 190417
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1117 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The surface map is rather muddled this afternoon, with several
outflow boundary joining a weak cold front across the upper MS
Valley. The cold front, characterized by dewpoints that drop back
into 50s at 3pm stretched from about Marshall to Little Falls. There
is a primary outflow boundary ahead of this that made it to about an
Albert Lea/Red Wing/Ladysmith line by 3pm. Along and southeast of
this boundary, they did get some sun today and sbcape around 2000
j/kg was noted on the 19z SPC meso analysis. This is where the
strongest/most widespread thunderstorms are expected today in the
form of multicell clusters with a marginal wind/hail risk, kind of
like what we saw Monday across central MN.

For the grids, it has been a day of change as the short term
guidance has really done a poor job all day in handling the
precipitation we have. Given the location of the primary instability
gradient on the southeast fringes of our CWA we did cut back chances
quite a bit to the west of where this boundary was at 2pm and also
sped up the departure of pops. Not expecting much precip tonight,
with the only possibility being some activity bubbling up along the
I-90 corridor to the north of the eastern wind shift/outflow, which
will be down in northern IA tonight.

Wednesday looks like a nice summer day, with reduced dewpoints (save
for south central MN where they will keep dewpoints in the low 70s)
and plenty of sunshine until the second half of the afternoon when
we should see upper clouds increase from the west as convective
debris moves in from the Dakotas. That boundary that will head into
northern Iowa tonight will come back north as a warm front Wednesday
and will lay the tracks for what looks like could be a significant
severe/excessive rain MCS at the start of the long term period.
However, expect storms Wednesday afternoon to remain west of our CWA
and initiate on the nose of the LLJ, which will be strengthening
across eastern SD.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

A fairly strong Mesoscale Convective System should be ongoing at 7
pm Wednesday evening. This MCS will be capable of producing 4 to
6 inches of rain, and also pose a severe weather threat, with
damaging wind, large hail, and even a few tornadoes possible. As
of now, it is expected to track along the Minnesota River Valley
and southern Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
slight risk area for Wednesday, and WPC continues to highlight
the potential for heavy rain.

It remains unclear if the storms will become forward propagating and
turn into more of a severe wind threat, or if they will become more
back-building and transition into a heavy rain threat. HiRes models
show both scenarios, with the 18.12 WRF-ARW having storms develop
further south, which should be more surface based and develop into a
wind threat. Meanwhile the 18.12 WRF-NMM fires off convection north
of the boundary which would pose more of a heavy rain threat. It
should be noted that eventually this solution does transition into a
linear system. At this point, favor the severe weather threat based
on the stronger mid and upper level winds and veering low level jet.
Do still expect 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates given the high
PWATS, but should see the storm eventually become cold pool dominant
with a few bowing segments.

The weather beyond Wednesday remains unsettled through Saturday when
an upper level trough drives a cold front through the Upper Midwest
and brings high pressure with drier, cooler air. Until that time
expect repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms. On Thursday
the boundary will shift and storms should be focused more across
northern Iowa and perhaps southern Minnesota. More widespread
precip is possible early Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be
in the 80s, but should return back into the 70s for early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Main concern overnight is fog/BR development, given clearing
skies, light winds, and recent rainfall. Have included a period of
3-6sm reductions overnight, with 2-3sm at west central WI sites
(KRNH/KEAU). The next concern is the trend some hi-res models are
showing in bringing in a round of showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow morning from the Dakotas. Have not bit off on that yet,
but will need to monitor trends over the Dakotas overnight. Still
expect the main window for strong storms to be late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Light northeast winds overnight shift to
the southeast on Wednesday and become gusty during the afternoon.

KMSP...
Could have some patchy BR development overnight with MVFR vsby
reductions. Still expect the storms to arrive after 00z Thursday,
but are monitoring trends of the hi-res models, with a couple
indicating convection arriving earlier to MSP (around 21z).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. NE 5 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities