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000
FXUS63 KDLH 251740
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1140 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Wind speeds at Grand Marais Harbor remain strong. The 7 AM
observation featured a wind gust to 48 kts (55 mph). Some high
resolution ARW core models (HRRR and DLHWRF) feature this ribbon
of very strong katabatic winds. The DLHWRF keeps speed max close
to shore, whereas the HRRR pushes the strongest winds onto the
lake in the next hour or so. Given the uptick in wind speeds in
the past hour, which supports the DLHWRF solution more than the
HRRR, elected to issue a Wind Advisory until noon for the southern
Cook zone. It`s worth noting, the DLHWRF keeps strong winds along
the shore as far south as Duluth through this morning.

Upstream radar echoes from KMVX and Environment Canada sites in
Manitoba continue to indicate a band of light snow moving toward
the Northland. Extended the POPs and snow showers northward to
include the entire western CWA. The band of light snow showers
will move eastward and gradually weaken with time. Taper off the
POPs by mid-afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Increased wind speeds and wind gusts for the next few hours along
the North Shore due to strong katabatic flow. Also added flurries
for central and southern St. Louis County and expanded the lake
effect snow showers in northwest Wisconsin. Light snow showers
were observed in the Red River Valley associated with an area of
weak DCVA. Added a mention of snow showers to my southwest and
southern zones as this feature moves through central Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

At 330 AM light snow lingered over portions of Ashland, Iron, and
Price Counties in northwest Wisconsin. A narrow streamer of very
light snow drifted through the US Highway 53 corridor and passed
through over the office around 3 AM. Additional streamers of very
light snow were indicated by radar stretching from near Hibbing
and Virginia southeastward through Cotton, Alborn, and the Twin
Ports. The departing winter storm was centered over southern
Ontario with a closed 500 mb low over eastern Wisconsin. Quasi-
zonal flow was indicated from northwest Minnesota across the
Dakotas and Canadian Prairies and a weak clipper was found over
southern Manitoba with a cool front extending west into northern
Montana.

The winter storm will continue to pull away from the Northland
today. Low- and mid-level winds have veered northwesterly over
northern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The
northwesterly flow is favorable for lake effect snow over snowbelt
areas of northwest Wisconsin. In fact, a few light returns have
been noted on radar over northern Bayfield, extreme northeastern
Ashland, and northern Iron County. Expect the lake effect snow to
continue for the next several hours, until the upstream moisture
rotates east of our area. With the cold air advection aloft,
anthropogenic snow showers have intensified over central and
southern St. Louis County during the past hour. Think the very
light snow will continue past sunrise. Lake effect snow showers
should diminish later this morning or early afternoon as weak warm
advection in the 925-850 mb layer reduces instability. High
temperatures should tick a few degrees warmer today, especially
over the southwest portions of the CWA due to continued low-level
warm advection. The initial clipper will weaken as it moves into
northwest Ontario later this morning, opening to a surface trough.
An increase in cloud cover along the International Border and a
few flurries should be the only sensible weather change marking
the passage of the trough.

A more robust clipper will ride along the remnant front tonight
bringing a chance of light snow to the Northland. Confidence in
precipitation occurring remains high, but with very limited
moisture, the location of the snow remains somewhat uncertain.
Snow amounts around an inch or two are expected overnight, with
another inch possible on Sunday. Cloud cover with the transient
clipper should limit cooling overnight with lows from the middle
single digits north to the upper teens south. Highs on Sunday will
be a touch warmer in the south, but a few degrees cooler north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The period will start out with an upper level trough deepening
across the western CONUS with the flow west to southwest over the
Northland. The upper trough will move into the central CONUS
midweek then continue east with northwest flow developing over the
region as it passes in the Thursday/Friday time period.

An inverted surface trough will move over the Northland on Monday
with a chance for light snow or possibly a mix as temperatures
climb into the thirties for most areas. The chance for
precipitation will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a stronger
shortwave moves toward the area in southwest flow aloft. A
surface low will develop and track through the Upper Midwest or
toward the eastern Great Lakes depending on the model. The GFS is
further north with the track compared to the ECMWF/Canadian and
even the GFS ensemble mean. Temperatures do warm ahead of the low
and a wintry mix will be possible in spots. Some snow accumulation
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night with this
system, but with the differences in track and possible mixed
precipitation types, it`s much too early to forecast amounts with
any certainty. Temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 in
far northern Minnesota to the mid to upper thirties in northwest
Wisconsin.

The upper trough will still be over the region Wednesday which
may lead to some light snow in spots but significant precipitation
looks unlikely. The GFS then sends a stronger shortwave through
the Northland Wednesday night with a surface low tracking through
Minnesota. The ECMWF/Canadian have a much weaker shortwave and
only a weak surface reflection. At this time we have mainly low
POPs Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be some lake effect
snow showers that linger into Friday along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior. Highs Thursday/Friday will cool a bit to
the lower to mid twenties along the International Border to 25 to
30 from the Brainerd Lakes region into northern Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Ahead of a cold front in northwest Minnesota, mainly VFR ceilings
were found across the terminals. Some spotty flurries were also in
the neighborhood. As the cold front passes, look for MVFR
ceilings and areas of light snow. Vsbys will vary from VFR to
MVFR in the vicinity of the light snow tonight through the end of
the forecast. The snow will diminish from northwest to southeast
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  15  28  13 /  20  60  60   0
INL  23   5  19   5 /  20  30  30  10
BRD  32  17  30  16 /  30  50  40   0
HYR  28  18  32  12 /  30  60  50   0
ASX  29  19  32  14 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ021.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 251320 AAC
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
720 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Wind speeds at Grand Marais Harbor remain strong. The 7 AM
observation featured a wind gust to 48 kts (55 mph). Some high
resolution ARW core models (HRRR and DLHWRF) feature this ribbon
of very strong katabatic winds. The DLHWRF keeps speed max close
to shore, whereas the HRRR pushes the strongest winds onto the
lake in the next hour or so. Given the uptick in wind speeds in
the past hour, which supports the DLHWRF solution more than the
HRRR, elected to issue a Wind Advisory until noon for the southern
Cook zone. It`s worth noting, the DLHWRF keeps strong winds along
the shore as far south as Duluth through this morning.

Upstream radar echoes from KMVX and Environment Canada sites in
Manitoba continue to indicate a band of light snow moving toward
the Northland. Extended the POPs and snow showers northward to
include the entire western CWA. The band of light snow showers
will move eastward and gradually weaken with time. Taper off the
POPs by mid-afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Increased wind speeds and wind gusts for the next few hours along
the North Shore due to strong katabatic flow. Also added flurries
for central and southern St. Louis County and expanded the lake
effect snow showers in northwest Wisconsin. Light snow showers
were observed in the Red River Valley associated with an area of
weak DCVA. Added a mention of snow showers to my southwest and
southern zones as this feature moves through central Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

At 330 AM light snow lingered over portions of Ashland, Iron, and
Price Counties in northwest Wisconsin. A narrow streamer of very
light snow drifted through the US Highway 53 corridor and passed
through over the office around 3 AM. Additional streamers of very
light snow were indicated by radar stretching from near Hibbing
and Virginia southeastward through Cotton, Alborn, and the Twin
Ports. The departing winter storm was centered over southern
Ontario with a closed 500 mb low over eastern Wisconsin. Quasi-
zonal flow was indicated from northwest Minnesota across the
Dakotas and Canadian Prairies and a weak clipper was found over
southern Manitoba with a cool front extending west into northern
Montana.

The winter storm will continue to pull away from the Northland
today. Low- and mid-level winds have veered northwesterly over
northern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The
northwesterly flow is favorable for lake effect snow over snowbelt
areas of northwest Wisconsin. In fact, a few light returns have
been noted on radar over northern Bayfield, extreme northeastern
Ashland, and northern Iron County. Expect the lake effect snow to
continue for the next several hours, until the upstream moisture
rotates east of our area. With the cold air advection aloft,
anthropogenic snow showers have intensified over central and
southern St. Louis County during the past hour. Think the very
light snow will continue past sunrise. Lake effect snow showers
should diminish later this morning or early afternoon as weak warm
advection in the 925-850 mb layer reduces instability. High
temperatures should tick a few degrees warmer today, especially
over the southwest portions of the CWA due to continued low-level
warm advection. The initial clipper will weaken as it moves into
northwest Ontario later this morning, opening to a surface trough.
An increase in cloud cover along the International Border and a
few flurries should be the only sensible weather change marking
the passage of the trough.

A more robust clipper will ride along the remnant front tonight
bringing a chance of light snow to the Northland. Confidence in
precipitation occurring remains high, but with very limited
moisture, the location of the snow remains somewhat uncertain.
Snow amounts around an inch or two are expected overnight, with
another inch possible on Sunday. Cloud cover with the transient
clipper should limit cooling overnight with lows from the middle
single digits north to the upper teens south. Highs on Sunday will
be a touch warmer in the south, but a few degrees cooler north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The period will start out with an upper level trough deepening
across the western CONUS with the flow west to southwest over the
Northland. The upper trough will move into the central CONUS
midweek then continue east with northwest flow developing over the
region as it passes in the Thursday/Friday time period.

An inverted surface trough will move over the Northland on Monday
with a chance for light snow or possibly a mix as temperatures
climb into the thirties for most areas. The chance for
precipitation will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a stronger
shortwave moves toward the area in southwest flow aloft. A
surface low will develop and track through the Upper Midwest or
toward the eastern Great Lakes depending on the model. The GFS is
further north with the track compared to the ECMWF/Canadian and
even the GFS ensemble mean. Temperatures do warm ahead of the low
and a wintry mix will be possible in spots. Some snow accumulation
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night with this
system, but with the differences in track and possible mixed
precipitation types, it`s much too early to forecast amounts with
any certainty. Temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 in
far northern Minnesota to the mid to upper thirties in northwest
Wisconsin.

The upper trough will still be over the region Wednesday which
may lead to some light snow in spots but significant precipitation
looks unlikely. The GFS then sends a stronger shortwave through
the Northland Wednesday night with a surface low tracking through
Minnesota. The ECMWF/Canadian have a much weaker shortwave and
only a weak surface reflection. At this time we have mainly low
POPs Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be some lake effect
snow showers that linger into Friday along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior. Highs Thursday/Friday will cool a bit to
the lower to mid twenties along the International Border to 25 to
30 from the Brainerd Lakes region into northern Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

MVFR ceilings and light snow showers were occurring over far
northeast Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin this
morning. These ceilings will gradually shift east through the day.
There were also some other localized affects going on with IFR
conditions reported at KEVM/KHIB which should last into mid
morning. Localized strong winds were also occurring along the
North Shore with KGNA gusting to 41KT in the 1156Z observation.
These strong winds will likely continue into mid morning.

A couple shortwaves will move through the area today and tonight.
The first shortwave will bring increasing clouds today, mainly
VFR ceilings from 3500-5000 feet. Some light snow showers will
also be possible. A stronger shortwave tonight along with a weak
surface low will bring a better chance for light snow and MVFR or
brief IFR conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  15  28  13 /  20  60  60   0
INL  23   5  19   5 /  20  30  30  10
BRD  32  17  30  16 /  30  50  40   0
HYR  28  18  32  12 /  30  60  50   0
ASX  29  19  32  14 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ021.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 251227 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
627 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Increased wind speeds and wind gusts for the next few hours along
the North Shore due to strong katabatic flow. Also added flurries
for central and southern St. Louis County and expanded the lake
effect snow showers in northwest Wisconsin. Light snow showers
were observed in the Red River Valley associated with an area of
weak DCVA. Added a mention of snow showers to my southwest and
southern zones as this feature moves through central Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

At 330 AM light snow lingered over portions of Ashland, Iron, and
Price Counties in northwest Wisconsin. A narrow streamer of very
light snow drifted through the US Highway 53 corridor and passed
through over the office around 3 AM. Additional streamers of very
light snow were indicated by radar stretching from near Hibbing
and Virginia southeastward through Cotton, Alborn, and the Twin
Ports. The departing winter storm was centered over southern
Ontario with a closed 500 mb low over eastern Wisconsin. Quasi-
zonal flow was indicated from northwest Minnesota across the
Dakotas and Canadian Prairies and a weak clipper was found over
southern Manitoba with a cool front extending west into northern
Montana.

The winter storm will continue to pull away from the Northland
today. Low- and mid-level winds have veered northwesterly over
northern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The
northwesterly flow is favorable for lake effect snow over snowbelt
areas of northwest Wisconsin. In fact, a few light returns have
been noted on radar over northern Bayfield, extreme northeastern
Ashland, and northern Iron County. Expect the lake effect snow to
continue for the next several hours, until the upstream moisture
rotates east of our area. With the cold air advection aloft,
anthropogenic snow showers have intensified over central and
southern St. Louis County during the past hour. Think the very
light snow will continue past sunrise. Lake effect snow showers
should diminish later this morning or early afternoon as weak warm
advection in the 925-850 mb layer reduces instability. High
temperatures should tick a few degrees warmer today, especially
over the southwest portions of the CWA due to continued low-level
warm advection. The initial clipper will weaken as it moves into
northwest Ontario later this morning, opening to a surface trough.
An increase in cloud cover along the International Border and a
few flurries should be the only sensible weather change marking
the passage of the trough.

A more robust clipper will ride along the remnant front tonight
bringing a chance of light snow to the Northland. Confidence in
precipitation occurring remains high, but with very limited
moisture, the location of the snow remains somewhat uncertain.
Snow amounts around an inch or two are expected overnight, with
another inch possible on Sunday. Cloud cover with the transient
clipper should limit cooling overnight with lows from the middle
single digits north to the upper teens south. Highs on Sunday will
be a touch warmer in the south, but a few degrees cooler north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The period will start out with an upper level trough deepening
across the western CONUS with the flow west to southwest over the
Northland. The upper trough will move into the central CONUS
midweek then continue east with northwest flow developing over the
region as it passes in the Thursday/Friday time period.

An inverted surface trough will move over the Northland on Monday
with a chance for light snow or possibly a mix as temperatures
climb into the thirties for most areas. The chance for
precipitation will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a stronger
shortwave moves toward the area in southwest flow aloft. A
surface low will develop and track through the Upper Midwest or
toward the eastern Great Lakes depending on the model. The GFS is
further north with the track compared to the ECMWF/Canadian and
even the GFS ensemble mean. Temperatures do warm ahead of the low
and a wintry mix will be possible in spots. Some snow accumulation
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night with this
system, but with the differences in track and possible mixed
precipitation types, it`s much too early to forecast amounts with
any certainty. Temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 in
far northern Minnesota to the mid to upper thirties in northwest
Wisconsin.

The upper trough will still be over the region Wednesday which
may lead to some light snow in spots but significant precipitation
looks unlikely. The GFS then sends a stronger shortwave through
the Northland Wednesday night with a surface low tracking through
Minnesota. The ECMWF/Canadian have a much weaker shortwave and
only a weak surface reflection. At this time we have mainly low
POPs Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be some lake effect
snow showers that linger into Friday along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior. Highs Thursday/Friday will cool a bit to
the lower to mid twenties along the International Border to 25 to
30 from the Brainerd Lakes region into northern Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

MVFR ceilings and light snow showers were occurring over far
northeast Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin this
morning. These ceilings will gradually shift east through the day.
There were also some other localized affects going on with IFR
conditions reported at KEVM/KHIB which should last into mid
morning. Localized strong winds were also occurring along the
North Shore with KGNA gusting to 41KT in the 1156Z observation.
These strong winds will likely continue into mid morning.

A couple shortwaves will move through the area today and tonight.
The first shortwave will bring increasing clouds today, mainly
VFR ceilings from 3500-5000 feet. Some light snow showers will
also be possible. A stronger shortwave tonight along with a weak
surface low will bring a better chance for light snow and MVFR or
brief IFR conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  15  28  13 /  10  60  60   0
INL  23   5  19   5 /  20  30  30  10
BRD  32  17  30  16 /  30  50  40   0
HYR  28  18  32  12 /  30  60  50   0
ASX  29  19  32  14 /  60  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 251157
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
557 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

At 330 AM light snow lingered over portions of Ashland, Iron, and
Price Counties in northwest Wisconsin. A narrow streamer of very
light snow drifted through the US Highway 53 corridor and passed
through over the office around 3 AM. Additional streamers of very
light snow were indicated by radar stretching from near Hibbing
and Virginia southeastward through Cotton, Alborn, and the Twin
Ports. The departing winter storm was centered over southern
Ontario with a closed 500 mb low over eastern Wisconsin. Quasi-
zonal flow was indicated from northwest Minnesota across the
Dakotas and Canadian Prairies and a weak clipper was found over
southern Manitoba with a cool front extending west into northern
Montana.

The winter storm will continue to pull away from the Northland
today. Low- and mid-level winds have veered northwesterly over
northern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The
northwesterly flow is favorable for lake effect snow over snowbelt
areas of northwest Wisconsin. In fact, a few light returns have
been noted on radar over northern Bayfield, extreme northeastern
Ashland, and northern Iron County. Expect the lake effect snow to
continue for the next several hours, until the upstream moisture
rotates east of our area. With the cold air advection aloft,
anthropogenic snow showers have intensified over central and
southern St. Louis County during the past hour. Think the very
light snow will continue past sunrise. Lake effect snow showers
should diminish later this morning or early afternoon as weak warm
advection in the 925-850 mb layer reduces instability. High
temperatures should tick a few degrees warmer today, especially
over the southwest portions of the CWA due to continued low-level
warm advection. The initial clipper will weaken as it moves into
northwest Ontario later this morning, opening to a surface trough.
An increase in cloud cover along the International Border and a
few flurries should be the only sensible weather change marking
the passage of the trough.

A more robust clipper will ride along the remnant front tonight
bringing a chance of light snow to the Northland. Confidence in
precipitation occurring remains high, but with very limited
moisture, the location of the snow remains somewhat uncertain.
Snow amounts around an inch or two are expected overnight, with
another inch possible on Sunday. Cloud cover with the transient
clipper should limit cooling overnight with lows from the middle
single digits north to the upper teens south. Highs on Sunday will
be a touch warmer in the south, but a few degrees cooler north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The period will start out with an upper level trough deepening
across the western CONUS with the flow west to southwest over the
Northland. The upper trough will move into the central CONUS
midweek then continue east with northwest flow developing over the
region as it passes in the Thursday/Friday time period.

An inverted surface trough will move over the Northland on Monday
with a chance for light snow or possibly a mix as temperatures
climb into the thirties for most areas. The chance for
precipitation will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a stronger
shortwave moves toward the area in southwest flow aloft. A
surface low will develop and track through the Upper Midwest or
toward the eastern Great Lakes depending on the model. The GFS is
further north with the track compared to the ECMWF/Canadian and
even the GFS ensemble mean. Temperatures do warm ahead of the low
and a wintry mix will be possible in spots. Some snow accumulation
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night with this
system, but with the differences in track and possible mixed
precipitation types, it`s much too early to forecast amounts with
any certainty. Temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 in
far northern Minnesota to the mid to upper thirties in northwest
Wisconsin.

The upper trough will still be over the region Wednesday which
may lead to some light snow in spots but significant precipitation
looks unlikely. The GFS then sends a stronger shortwave through
the Northland Wednesday night with a surface low tracking through
Minnesota. The ECMWF/Canadian have a much weaker shortwave and
only a weak surface reflection. At this time we have mainly low
POPs Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be some lake effect
snow showers that linger into Friday along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior. Highs Thursday/Friday will cool a bit to
the lower to mid twenties along the International Border to 25 to
30 from the Brainerd Lakes region into northern Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

MVFR ceilings and light snow showers were occurring over far
northeast Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin this
morning. These ceilings will gradually shift east through the day.
There were also some other localized affects going on with IFR
conditions reported at KEVM/KHIB which should last into mid
morning. Localized strong winds were also occurring along the
North Shore with KGNA gusting to 41KT in the 1156Z observation.
These strong winds will likely continue into mid morning.

A couple shortwaves will move through the area today and tonight.
The first shortwave will bring increasing clouds today, mainly
VFR ceilings from 3500-5000 feet. Some light snow showers will
also be possible. A stronger shortwave tonight along with a weak
surface low will bring a better chance for light snow and MVFR or
brief IFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  15  28  13 /  10  60  60   0
INL  23   5  19   5 /  20  30  30  10
BRD  32  17  30  16 /  20  50  40   0
HYR  28  18  32  12 /  20  60  50   0
ASX  29  19  32  14 /  20  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ003-009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 251157
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
557 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

At 330 AM light snow lingered over portions of Ashland, Iron, and
Price Counties in northwest Wisconsin. A narrow streamer of very
light snow drifted through the US Highway 53 corridor and passed
through over the office around 3 AM. Additional streamers of very
light snow were indicated by radar stretching from near Hibbing
and Virginia southeastward through Cotton, Alborn, and the Twin
Ports. The departing winter storm was centered over southern
Ontario with a closed 500 mb low over eastern Wisconsin. Quasi-
zonal flow was indicated from northwest Minnesota across the
Dakotas and Canadian Prairies and a weak clipper was found over
southern Manitoba with a cool front extending west into northern
Montana.

The winter storm will continue to pull away from the Northland
today. Low- and mid-level winds have veered northwesterly over
northern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The
northwesterly flow is favorable for lake effect snow over snowbelt
areas of northwest Wisconsin. In fact, a few light returns have
been noted on radar over northern Bayfield, extreme northeastern
Ashland, and northern Iron County. Expect the lake effect snow to
continue for the next several hours, until the upstream moisture
rotates east of our area. With the cold air advection aloft,
anthropogenic snow showers have intensified over central and
southern St. Louis County during the past hour. Think the very
light snow will continue past sunrise. Lake effect snow showers
should diminish later this morning or early afternoon as weak warm
advection in the 925-850 mb layer reduces instability. High
temperatures should tick a few degrees warmer today, especially
over the southwest portions of the CWA due to continued low-level
warm advection. The initial clipper will weaken as it moves into
northwest Ontario later this morning, opening to a surface trough.
An increase in cloud cover along the International Border and a
few flurries should be the only sensible weather change marking
the passage of the trough.

A more robust clipper will ride along the remnant front tonight
bringing a chance of light snow to the Northland. Confidence in
precipitation occurring remains high, but with very limited
moisture, the location of the snow remains somewhat uncertain.
Snow amounts around an inch or two are expected overnight, with
another inch possible on Sunday. Cloud cover with the transient
clipper should limit cooling overnight with lows from the middle
single digits north to the upper teens south. Highs on Sunday will
be a touch warmer in the south, but a few degrees cooler north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The period will start out with an upper level trough deepening
across the western CONUS with the flow west to southwest over the
Northland. The upper trough will move into the central CONUS
midweek then continue east with northwest flow developing over the
region as it passes in the Thursday/Friday time period.

An inverted surface trough will move over the Northland on Monday
with a chance for light snow or possibly a mix as temperatures
climb into the thirties for most areas. The chance for
precipitation will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a stronger
shortwave moves toward the area in southwest flow aloft. A
surface low will develop and track through the Upper Midwest or
toward the eastern Great Lakes depending on the model. The GFS is
further north with the track compared to the ECMWF/Canadian and
even the GFS ensemble mean. Temperatures do warm ahead of the low
and a wintry mix will be possible in spots. Some snow accumulation
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night with this
system, but with the differences in track and possible mixed
precipitation types, it`s much too early to forecast amounts with
any certainty. Temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 in
far northern Minnesota to the mid to upper thirties in northwest
Wisconsin.

The upper trough will still be over the region Wednesday which
may lead to some light snow in spots but significant precipitation
looks unlikely. The GFS then sends a stronger shortwave through
the Northland Wednesday night with a surface low tracking through
Minnesota. The ECMWF/Canadian have a much weaker shortwave and
only a weak surface reflection. At this time we have mainly low
POPs Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be some lake effect
snow showers that linger into Friday along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior. Highs Thursday/Friday will cool a bit to
the lower to mid twenties along the International Border to 25 to
30 from the Brainerd Lakes region into northern Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

MVFR ceilings and light snow showers were occurring over far
northeast Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin this
morning. These ceilings will gradually shift east through the day.
There were also some other localized affects going on with IFR
conditions reported at KEVM/KHIB which should last into mid
morning. Localized strong winds were also occurring along the
North Shore with KGNA gusting to 41KT in the 1156Z observation.
These strong winds will likely continue into mid morning.

A couple shortwaves will move through the area today and tonight.
The first shortwave will bring increasing clouds today, mainly
VFR ceilings from 3500-5000 feet. Some light snow showers will
also be possible. A stronger shortwave tonight along with a weak
surface low will bring a better chance for light snow and MVFR or
brief IFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  15  28  13 /  10  60  60   0
INL  23   5  19   5 /  20  30  30  10
BRD  32  17  30  16 /  20  50  40   0
HYR  28  18  32  12 /  20  60  50   0
ASX  29  19  32  14 /  20  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ003-009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 251121
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The main short term concern is chance of light snow across
northern cwa tonight.

Yesterdays storm is exiting the region early this morning. Clouds
should exit western Wisconsin early before more clouds build east
ahead of our next short wave. Current water vapor imagery shows
that system now moving across western Montana and is expected to
move across the Dakotas today. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side today, generally at or below freezing most areas,
especially those seeing fresh snowcover.

Deterministic models in good agreement with the possibility of light
snow developing across the northern area overnight. Models indicate
decent isentropic lift associated with the short wave as it moves
across this region. Will spread some likely pops across that area
tonight. Accumulation`s are expected to remain light with little
moisture generally a dusting to an inch possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The main issue in the short term revolves around precip chances and
types Monday night/Tuesday. Otherwise, we will have fairly strong
flow across the CONUS as we see our pattern locally transition from
zonal over the weekend, to southwest flow for the first half of next
week, followed by northwest flow to end the week.

The long term starts Sunday morning with the series of mid-level
ripples currently from northwest NoDak back to the southern
BC/Alberta border bringing scattered light snow showers to areas
north of I-94 in central MN and NW WI. QPF from the deterministic
models and reflectivity forecasts from numerous CAMs support the
idea of scattered activity brushing our northern CWA, so kept the
idea of chance pops going here. The last and strongest of these
waves will help drive a weak cold front across the area Sunday
afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will allow for
above normal temps, with highs in the low 40s not out of the
question north of the fresh snow cover from Friday`s system.

Monday, troughing will be building down western NOAM, with ridging
building down stream in response. This will transition our flow over
to the southwest for Monday.  This will allow even milder air back
into the area, with highs Monday getting into the 40s with bare
ground and staying in the 30s over the snowcover. With these warmer
temperatures coming up from the south, we`ll see a baroclinic zone
sharpen to our northwest Monday afternoon that will drift overhead
Monday night. Aloft, we`ll see a series of weak disturbance move
over this baroclinic zone in the southwest flow Monday night and
Tuesday.  Given the relatively weak forcing in relatively fast flow,
models are still all over the place with when/where precip will
fall, though our eastern areas Tuesday afternoon/evening still look
to have the greatest chance of seeing precip. Temperatures look
pretty warm with the system, with highs likely getting back up to
around 40 on Tuesday, with rain looking to be the main p-type save
for up around Alexandria by Tuesday afternoon. It`s Monday
night/Tuesday morning where we could have problems IF there is any
precip around. Current forecast has lows Monday night falling back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s as a warm nose and melting layer moves
in aloft. This means for the southeast half of our CWA or so, Monday
night/Tuesday morning will be a mix/rain scenario based on surface
temperatures. Given our current forecast, there is a good deal of
sleet/freezing rain mention Monday night.  Much of the MOS guidance
helps pull our temperatures down below freezing, but the NAM, GFS,
and even Canadian keep much of the area where we currently have a
mix mention above freezing. Given how warm we will be Monday and the
likelihood of cloudy skies and light southeast winds, this forecast
of a couple of degrees warmer isn`t unreasonable and those couple of
degrees would be enough to keep the freezing rain and sleet
currently mentioned as just rain. Of course this may be a moot point
as there may very will not be any precip Monday night/Tuesday
morning given moisture issues, but this will need to be looked over
closely in future forecasts.

Behind this system, the Canadian and ECMWF are backing away from the
potential clipper for Thursday, but its still in with the GFS and
several GEFS members, so we continue chance pops for then.  Though
the Canadian and ECMWF may not have the clipper, they do have the
glancing blow from arctic air to end the week, resulting in a return
to near normal temperatures to start March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Will maintain mainly VFR conditions during the period. Only chance
for MVFR cigs developing at KAXN mainly after 06z. Remainder of
the area will see a mix of clouds through the morning...becoming
bkn050-080 during the afternoon. Some threat of light snow over
the northern area tonight. We did mention -sn at kaxn and vcsh at
kstc for now. Northwest winds will be a bit gusty to the east
this morning...becoming w-sw into tonight.

.MSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun night...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN Mon night. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 251121
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The main short term concern is chance of light snow across
northern cwa tonight.

Yesterdays storm is exiting the region early this morning. Clouds
should exit western Wisconsin early before more clouds build east
ahead of our next short wave. Current water vapor imagery shows
that system now moving across western Montana and is expected to
move across the Dakotas today. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side today, generally at or below freezing most areas,
especially those seeing fresh snowcover.

Deterministic models in good agreement with the possibility of light
snow developing across the northern area overnight. Models indicate
decent isentropic lift associated with the short wave as it moves
across this region. Will spread some likely pops across that area
tonight. Accumulation`s are expected to remain light with little
moisture generally a dusting to an inch possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The main issue in the short term revolves around precip chances and
types Monday night/Tuesday. Otherwise, we will have fairly strong
flow across the CONUS as we see our pattern locally transition from
zonal over the weekend, to southwest flow for the first half of next
week, followed by northwest flow to end the week.

The long term starts Sunday morning with the series of mid-level
ripples currently from northwest NoDak back to the southern
BC/Alberta border bringing scattered light snow showers to areas
north of I-94 in central MN and NW WI. QPF from the deterministic
models and reflectivity forecasts from numerous CAMs support the
idea of scattered activity brushing our northern CWA, so kept the
idea of chance pops going here. The last and strongest of these
waves will help drive a weak cold front across the area Sunday
afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will allow for
above normal temps, with highs in the low 40s not out of the
question north of the fresh snow cover from Friday`s system.

Monday, troughing will be building down western NOAM, with ridging
building down stream in response. This will transition our flow over
to the southwest for Monday.  This will allow even milder air back
into the area, with highs Monday getting into the 40s with bare
ground and staying in the 30s over the snowcover. With these warmer
temperatures coming up from the south, we`ll see a baroclinic zone
sharpen to our northwest Monday afternoon that will drift overhead
Monday night. Aloft, we`ll see a series of weak disturbance move
over this baroclinic zone in the southwest flow Monday night and
Tuesday.  Given the relatively weak forcing in relatively fast flow,
models are still all over the place with when/where precip will
fall, though our eastern areas Tuesday afternoon/evening still look
to have the greatest chance of seeing precip. Temperatures look
pretty warm with the system, with highs likely getting back up to
around 40 on Tuesday, with rain looking to be the main p-type save
for up around Alexandria by Tuesday afternoon. It`s Monday
night/Tuesday morning where we could have problems IF there is any
precip around. Current forecast has lows Monday night falling back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s as a warm nose and melting layer moves
in aloft. This means for the southeast half of our CWA or so, Monday
night/Tuesday morning will be a mix/rain scenario based on surface
temperatures. Given our current forecast, there is a good deal of
sleet/freezing rain mention Monday night.  Much of the MOS guidance
helps pull our temperatures down below freezing, but the NAM, GFS,
and even Canadian keep much of the area where we currently have a
mix mention above freezing. Given how warm we will be Monday and the
likelihood of cloudy skies and light southeast winds, this forecast
of a couple of degrees warmer isn`t unreasonable and those couple of
degrees would be enough to keep the freezing rain and sleet
currently mentioned as just rain. Of course this may be a moot point
as there may very will not be any precip Monday night/Tuesday
morning given moisture issues, but this will need to be looked over
closely in future forecasts.

Behind this system, the Canadian and ECMWF are backing away from the
potential clipper for Thursday, but its still in with the GFS and
several GEFS members, so we continue chance pops for then.  Though
the Canadian and ECMWF may not have the clipper, they do have the
glancing blow from arctic air to end the week, resulting in a return
to near normal temperatures to start March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Will maintain mainly VFR conditions during the period. Only chance
for MVFR cigs developing at KAXN mainly after 06z. Remainder of
the area will see a mix of clouds through the morning...becoming
bkn050-080 during the afternoon. Some threat of light snow over
the northern area tonight. We did mention -sn at kaxn and vcsh at
kstc for now. Northwest winds will be a bit gusty to the east
this morning...becoming w-sw into tonight.

.MSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun night...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN Mon night. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 251102
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

At 330 AM light snow lingered over portions of Ashland, Iron, and
Price Counties in northwest Wisconsin. A narrow streamer of very
light snow drifted through the US Highway 53 corridor and passed
through over the office around 3 AM. Additional streamers of very
light snow were indicated by radar stretching from near Hibbing
and Virginia southeastward through Cotton, Alborn, and the Twin
Ports. The departing winter storm was centered over southern
Ontario with a closed 500 mb low over eastern Wisconsin. Quasi-
zonal flow was indicated from northwest Minnesota across the
Dakotas and Canadian Prairies and a weak clipper was found over
southern Manitoba with a cool front extending west into northern
Montana.

The winter storm will continue to pull away from the Northland
today. Low- and mid-level winds have veered northwesterly over
northern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The
northwesterly flow is favorable for lake effect snow over snowbelt
areas of northwest Wisconsin. In fact, a few light returns have
been noted on radar over northern Bayfield, extreme northeastern
Ashland, and northern Iron County. Expect the lake effect snow to
continue for the next several hours, until the upstream moisture
rotates east of our area. With the cold air advection aloft,
anthropogenic snow showers have intensified over central and
southern St. Louis County during the past hour. Think the very
light snow will continue past sunrise. Lake effect snow showers
should diminish later this morning or early afternoon as weak warm
advection in the 925-850 mb layer reduces instability. High
temperatures should tick a few degrees warmer today, especially
over the southwest portions of the CWA due to continued low-level
warm advection. The initial clipper will weaken as it moves into
northwest Ontario later this morning, opening to a surface trough.
An increase in cloud cover along the International Border and a
few flurries should be the only sensible weather change marking
the passage of the trough.

A more robust clipper will ride along the remnant front tonight
bringing a chance of light snow to the Northland. Confidence in
precipitation occurring remains high, but with very limited
moisture, the location of the snow remains somewhat uncertain.
Snow amounts around an inch or two are expected overnight, with
another inch possible on Sunday. Cloud cover with the transient
clipper should limit cooling overnight with lows from the middle
single digits north to the upper teens south. Highs on Sunday will
be a touch warmer in the south, but a few degrees cooler north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The period will start out with an upper level trough deepening
across the western CONUS with the flow west to southwest over the
Northland. The upper trough will move into the central CONUS
midweek then continue east with northwest flow developing over the
region as it passes in the Thursday/Friday time period.

An inverted surface trough will move over the Northland on Monday
with a chance for light snow or possibly a mix as temperatures
climb into the thirties for most areas. The chance for
precipitation will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a stronger
shortwave moves toward the area in southwest flow aloft. A
surface low will develop and track through the Upper Midwest or
toward the eastern Great Lakes depending on the model. The GFS is
further north with the track compared to the ECMWF/Canadian and
even the GFS ensemble mean. Temperatures do warm ahead of the low
and a wintry mix will be possible in spots. Some snow accumulation
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night with this
system, but with the differences in track and possible mixed
precipitation types, it`s much too early to forecast amounts with
any certainty. Temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 in
far northern Minnesota to the mid to upper thirties in northwest
Wisconsin.

The upper trough will still be over the region Wednesday which
may lead to some light snow in spots but significant precipitation
looks unlikely. The GFS then sends a stronger shortwave through
the Northland Wednesday night with a surface low tracking through
Minnesota. The ECMWF/Canadian have a much weaker shortwave and
only a weak surface reflection. At this time we have mainly low
POPs Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be some lake effect
snow showers that linger into Friday along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior. Highs Thursday/Friday will cool a bit to
the lower to mid twenties along the International Border to 25 to
30 from the Brainerd Lakes region into northern Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected for much of the Northland TAF sites
overnight and into Saturday, although there will be some patches
of MVFR CIG`s moving through on occasion. VSBY`s should remain VFR
until Saturday evening, when a weak wave moves in from the west.
At that time we could see some visibility restrictions due to
falling snow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  15  28  13 /  10  60  60   0
INL  23   5  19   5 /  20  30  30  10
BRD  32  17  30  16 /  20  50  40   0
HYR  28  18  32  12 /  20  60  50   0
ASX  29  19  32  14 /  20  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ003-009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 251102
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

At 330 AM light snow lingered over portions of Ashland, Iron, and
Price Counties in northwest Wisconsin. A narrow streamer of very
light snow drifted through the US Highway 53 corridor and passed
through over the office around 3 AM. Additional streamers of very
light snow were indicated by radar stretching from near Hibbing
and Virginia southeastward through Cotton, Alborn, and the Twin
Ports. The departing winter storm was centered over southern
Ontario with a closed 500 mb low over eastern Wisconsin. Quasi-
zonal flow was indicated from northwest Minnesota across the
Dakotas and Canadian Prairies and a weak clipper was found over
southern Manitoba with a cool front extending west into northern
Montana.

The winter storm will continue to pull away from the Northland
today. Low- and mid-level winds have veered northwesterly over
northern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The
northwesterly flow is favorable for lake effect snow over snowbelt
areas of northwest Wisconsin. In fact, a few light returns have
been noted on radar over northern Bayfield, extreme northeastern
Ashland, and northern Iron County. Expect the lake effect snow to
continue for the next several hours, until the upstream moisture
rotates east of our area. With the cold air advection aloft,
anthropogenic snow showers have intensified over central and
southern St. Louis County during the past hour. Think the very
light snow will continue past sunrise. Lake effect snow showers
should diminish later this morning or early afternoon as weak warm
advection in the 925-850 mb layer reduces instability. High
temperatures should tick a few degrees warmer today, especially
over the southwest portions of the CWA due to continued low-level
warm advection. The initial clipper will weaken as it moves into
northwest Ontario later this morning, opening to a surface trough.
An increase in cloud cover along the International Border and a
few flurries should be the only sensible weather change marking
the passage of the trough.

A more robust clipper will ride along the remnant front tonight
bringing a chance of light snow to the Northland. Confidence in
precipitation occurring remains high, but with very limited
moisture, the location of the snow remains somewhat uncertain.
Snow amounts around an inch or two are expected overnight, with
another inch possible on Sunday. Cloud cover with the transient
clipper should limit cooling overnight with lows from the middle
single digits north to the upper teens south. Highs on Sunday will
be a touch warmer in the south, but a few degrees cooler north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The period will start out with an upper level trough deepening
across the western CONUS with the flow west to southwest over the
Northland. The upper trough will move into the central CONUS
midweek then continue east with northwest flow developing over the
region as it passes in the Thursday/Friday time period.

An inverted surface trough will move over the Northland on Monday
with a chance for light snow or possibly a mix as temperatures
climb into the thirties for most areas. The chance for
precipitation will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a stronger
shortwave moves toward the area in southwest flow aloft. A
surface low will develop and track through the Upper Midwest or
toward the eastern Great Lakes depending on the model. The GFS is
further north with the track compared to the ECMWF/Canadian and
even the GFS ensemble mean. Temperatures do warm ahead of the low
and a wintry mix will be possible in spots. Some snow accumulation
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night with this
system, but with the differences in track and possible mixed
precipitation types, it`s much too early to forecast amounts with
any certainty. Temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 in
far northern Minnesota to the mid to upper thirties in northwest
Wisconsin.

The upper trough will still be over the region Wednesday which
may lead to some light snow in spots but significant precipitation
looks unlikely. The GFS then sends a stronger shortwave through
the Northland Wednesday night with a surface low tracking through
Minnesota. The ECMWF/Canadian have a much weaker shortwave and
only a weak surface reflection. At this time we have mainly low
POPs Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be some lake effect
snow showers that linger into Friday along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior. Highs Thursday/Friday will cool a bit to
the lower to mid twenties along the International Border to 25 to
30 from the Brainerd Lakes region into northern Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected for much of the Northland TAF sites
overnight and into Saturday, although there will be some patches
of MVFR CIG`s moving through on occasion. VSBY`s should remain VFR
until Saturday evening, when a weak wave moves in from the west.
At that time we could see some visibility restrictions due to
falling snow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  15  28  13 /  10  60  60   0
INL  23   5  19   5 /  20  30  30  10
BRD  32  17  30  16 /  20  50  40   0
HYR  28  18  32  12 /  20  60  50   0
ASX  29  19  32  14 /  20  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ003-009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250942
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The main short term concern is chance of light snow across
northern cwa tonight.

Yesterdays storm is exiting the region early this morning. Clouds
should exit western Wisconsin early before more clouds build east
ahead of our next short wave. Current water vapor imagery shows
that system now moving across western Montana and is expected to
move across the Dakotas today. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side today, generally at or below freezing most areas,
especially those seeing fresh snowcover.

Deterministic models in good agreement with the possibility of light
snow developing across the northern area overnight. Models indicate
decent isentropic lift associated with the short wave as it moves
across this region. Will spread some likely pops across that area
tonight. Accumulation`s are expected to remain light with little
moisture generally a dusting to an inch possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The main issue in the short term revolves around precip chances and
types Monday night/Tuesday. Otherwise, we will have fairly strong
flow across the CONUS as we see our pattern locally transition from
zonal over the weekend, to southwest flow for the first half of next
week, followed by northwest flow to end the week.

The long term starts Sunday morning with the series of mid-level
ripples currently from northwest NoDak back to the southern
BC/Alberta border bringing scattered light snow showers to areas
north of I-94 in central MN and NW WI. QPF from the deterministic
models and reflectivity forecasts from numerous CAMs support the
idea of scattered activity brushing our northern CWA, so kept the
idea of chance pops going here. The last and strongest of these
waves will help drive a weak cold front across the area Sunday
afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will allow for
above normal temps, with highs in the low 40s not out of the
question north of the fresh snow cover from Friday`s system.

Monday, troughing will be building down western NOAM, with ridging
building down stream in response. This will transition our flow over
to the southwest for Monday.  This will allow even milder air back
into the area, with highs Monday getting into the 40s with bare
ground and staying in the 30s over the snowcover. With these warmer
temperatures coming up from the south, we`ll see a baroclinic zone
sharpen to our northwest Monday afternoon that will drift overhead
Monday night. Aloft, we`ll see a series of weak disturbance move
over this baroclinic zone in the southwest flow Monday night and
Tuesday.  Given the relatively weak forcing in relatively fast flow,
models are still all over the place with when/where precip will
fall, though our eastern areas Tuesday afternoon/evening still look
to have the greatest chance of seeing precip. Temperatures look
pretty warm with the system, with highs likely getting back up to
around 40 on Tuesday, with rain looking to be the main p-type save
for up around Alexandria by Tuesday afternoon. It`s Monday
night/Tuesday morning where we could have problems IF there is any
precip around. Current forecast has lows Monday night falling back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s as a warm nose and melting layer moves
in aloft. This means for the southeast half of our CWA or so, Monday
night/Tuesday morning will be a mix/rain scenario based on surface
temperatures. Given our current forecast, there is a good deal of
sleet/freezing rain mention Monday night.  Much of the MOS guidance
helps pull our temperatures down below freezing, but the NAM, GFS,
and even Canadian keep much of the area where we currently have a
mix mention above freezing. Given how warm we will be Monday and the
likelihood of cloudy skies and light southeast winds, this forecast
of a couple of degrees warmer isn`t unreasonable and those couple of
degrees would be enough to keep the freezing rain and sleet
currently mentioned as just rain. Of course this may be a moot point
as there may very will not be any precip Monday night/Tuesday
morning given moisture issues, but this will need to be looked over
closely in future forecasts.

Behind this system, the Canadian and ECMWF are backing away from the
potential clipper for Thursday, but its still in with the GFS and
several GEFS members, so we continue chance pops for then.  Though
the Canadian and ECMWF may not have the clipper, they do have the
glancing blow from arctic air to end the week, resulting in a return
to near normal temperatures to start March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with northwest
winds becoming southwest late Saturday.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN Mon night. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250555 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1155 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the surface low nearly over
KORD with its trailing cold front extending SSW into the ArkLaTex
region. High pressure sagging south from central Canada extends
well into the Northern Plains. Aloft, a pivoting upper level
trough is swinging through the area and will shift atop Lake
Michigan by daybreak tomorrow morning. The modest northwest flow
over the international border will bring in the surface high for
the weekend, drying out the atmosphere and producing a mix of sun
and clouds for tomorrow. Before we get to that point, there is
still snow ongoing in the far southeastern MN and southwestern WI
portions of the WFO MPX coverage area. Winds are still in the
15-25 mph range while the snowfall intensity has gradually
diminished. Thus, while Blizzard conditions are no longer
expected, there still may well likely be some blowing/drifting and
visibility issues for those areas, including parts of I-35 and
I-94 well SE of the Twin Cities. This snowfall will gradually
diminish through the evening, resulting in potentially up to an
additional 2-3 inches in those far eastern areas. Otherwise, as
mentioned above, conditions will improve overnight through the day
tomorrow, with the colder air remaining in place. Lows tonight
will be the coldest the area has experienced in some time as
minimum temperatures drop into the teens, which are actually
normal values for late February. Highs on Saturday will then hold
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

On Saturday night, at trough of low pressure pushing east across
North Dakota will bring some light snow to northern MN, grazing
central MN north of I-94. This will be a fast-moving system and
any accumulation in central MN will be under an inch, so little
has changed with the forecast with this wave.

The next opportunity for precipitation will come Monday Night-
Tuesday when a strong system is expected to develop and affect the
Upper-Midwest.  At this stage, the track of the surface low varies
quite a bit, as does exact timing.  Still, we continue to feel
confident enough to go with 60% chance of precipitation for
eastern MN and western WI during this period. The latest
guidance cooled the system some with cooler air in place from the
north, but daytime highs still dictate p-type for now. You`ll
notice the forecast calls for a combination of rain and snow,
following a diurnal trend Monday night through Tuesday.

As we head into early March, a northwesterly flow jet stream will
setup across our area, meaning the pattern will be favorable for
fast moving clipper systems to move through the area.  Next
Wednesday night through Thursday looks to have a clipper moving
through the region but it`s too far out in time to discuss
precipitation details with this.

In terms of temperatures over the next week, slightly above normal
temperatures are generally expected with highs commonly in the
mid-30s. Overnight lows will dip into the teens and twenties
every night. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler across
the deep snow pack in far southern MN through west central
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with northwest
winds becoming southwest late Saturday.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN Mon night. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 250549
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1149 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Updated to remove some counties in the winter weather advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow continued across eastern portions of our NW Wisconsin CWA as
of this evening. We did see quite a period of persistent snow
across that area during the afternoon and evening. While snow was
still falling across that area, it appears the snowfall rates will
continue to gradually fall for most areas. Partial clearing was
found across the western portion of the CWA, and as a result we
have dropped temps somewhat for north central Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A robust band of snow set up over northwest Wisconsin this
morning, but it is slowly disintegrating, with weakening radar
returns. The radar has shown pretty robust lake effect snow
showers over Douglas and Bayfield county today, and the visibility
at Solon Springs dropped down to a mile and a half. Models are
indicating that frontogenesis with the band is weakening and
shifting southeast of the forecast area for the rest of the
afternoon and this evening. Snowfall reports so far this afternoon
have been under performing under the band as well, with no more
than 1.5 to 3 inches so far. Road reports from northwest Wisconsin
show no worse than slippery stretches as well. Thus, have down
graded the winter storm warnings to an Advisory for Ashland, Price
and Sawyer counties, but due to the fairly robust lake effect
bands have kept Iron county going for the remainder of the
warning. An advisory remains in effect for Bayfield and Burnett.
Snowfall amounts for the rest of the afternoon and night should
range from 2 to 4 inches, with more possible in the higher terrain
of Iron county around Hurley depending on the lake effect bands
that move across that area. Lake effect should continue into
Saturday morning, before diminishing as dry air moves in to weaken
the snow showers. Lows overnight tonight should fall into the
single digits to lower teens as the cirrus is departing and cold
air is moving into the area on the heels of the storm. Saturday
should have at least a short period of clear/nearly clear skies,
with high temperatures in the 20s to around 30. It might feel cold
due to our recent stretch of warm temperatures, but it should
otherwise be a nice day for February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The weekend ends with a clipper system bringing 1-2" of snow to much
of the Northland, then warmer into the beginning of the work week as
the weather pattern shifts from northwest to southwest. Tuesday into
Wednesday a more organized low looks to develop in the Great Plains
and lift northeast towards the upper Great Lakes, but there still
remains considerable spread in solutions across models and their
ensembles. Precipitation appears likely across the Northland, but
when exactly, how much, and in what form (rain or snow) is a tough
call. Late in the week into the weekend northwest flow resumes with
a series of clippers bringing light snow and cooler temperatures.
Generally mild to near normal temperatures through the work week
with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s most days, except Monday and
Tuesday when highs may approach 40 in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Saturday into Sunday the clipper-like mid-level shortwave trough
moving from west to east across the northern Great Plains into the
upper Midwest looks to bring a quick round of light snowfall to
parts of the region. Based on the latest guidance precipitation
chances and amounts were raised slightly, with 1-2" possible across
a large swath of NE Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Given the
fast flow aloft, though, this storm isn`t likely to bring much more
than 2" of snow to a large area. Most of the snow looks to fall
early Sunday morning, ending by mid-day from west to east.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be milder as the synoptic scale
flow aloft changes from northwest to southwest flow in response to a
longwave mid/upper level wave deepening over the Great Basin region
into the Great Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of
the Rockies into the Great Plains Tuesday leading to a resultant
surface low deepening, but the exact timing/track of this low is
tough to discern at this point because of the wide variation in
model solutions. Generally this pattern looks to favor precipitation
across the upper Midwest, but there are numerous challenges with
large-scale forcing, moisture, and temperatures (at the surface and
aloft) to make it worthwhile to make an attempt at a more detailed
forecast. Model consensus is for precipitation to begin as early as
late Monday, ending towards Wednesday morning with rain mixing with
snow at times.

Late week northwest flow resumes in the wake of the mid-week system
with colder temperatures and occasional chances for light snowfall.
Temperatures may finally fall to below normal by the weekend, ending
our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. (The day with an
average temperature below normal at Duluth was Feb 9.)

Beyond the 7-day, both the GFS and ECMWF support a very active west-
northwest flow leading to the possibility of several powerful to
impact the upper Midwest next weekend. While still a long ways out,
definitely something to keep an eye on given the very good agreement
with the 12z GFS/ECMWF. (Though the 06z GFS has a much less dynamic
solution with a fairly flat flow supporting a weaker parade-of-
clippers scenario continuing into the weekend.)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected for much of the Northland TAF sites
overnight and into Saturday, although there will be some patches
of MVFR CIG`s moving through on occasion. VSBY`s should remain VFR
until Saturday evening, when a weak wave moves in from the west.
At that time we could see some visibility restrictions due to
falling snow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   5  26  16  27 /  10   0  60  30
INL   0  23   5  21 /   0  20  20  10
BRD   9  32  18  31 /   0  10  40  30
HYR   9  28  18  33 /  50  10  40  40
ASX  11  29  18  32 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 250327
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
927 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow continued across eastern portions of our NW Wisconsin CWA as
of this evening. We did see quite a period of persistent snow
across that area during the afternoon and evening. While snow was
still falling across that area, it appears the snowfall rates will
continue to gradually fall for most areas. Partial clearing was
found across the western portion of the CWA, and as a result we
have dropped temps somewhat for north central Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A robust band of snow set up over northwest Wisconsin this
morning, but it is slowly disintegrating, with weakening radar
returns. The radar has shown pretty robust lake effect snow
showers over Douglas and Bayfield county today, and the visibility
at Solon Springs dropped down to a mile and a half. Models are
indicating that frontogenesis with the band is weakening and
shifting southeast of the forecast area for the rest of the
afternoon and this evening. Snowfall reports so far this afternoon
have been under performing under the band as well, with no more
than 1.5 to 3 inches so far. Road reports from northwest Wisconsin
show no worse than slippery stretches as well. Thus, have down
graded the winter storm warnings to an Advisory for Ashland, Price
and Sawyer counties, but due to the fairly robust lake effect
bands have kept Iron county going for the remainder of the
warning. An advisory remains in effect for Bayfield and Burnett.
Snowfall amounts for the rest of the afternoon and night should
range from 2 to 4 inches, with more possible in the higher terrain
of Iron county around Hurley depending on the lake effect bands
that move across that area. Lake effect should continue into
Saturday morning, before diminishing as dry air moves in to weaken
the snow showers. Lows overnight tonight should fall into the
single digits to lower teens as the cirrus is departing and cold
air is moving into the area on the heels of the storm. Saturday
should have at least a short period of clear/nearly clear skies,
with high temperatures in the 20s to around 30. It might feel cold
due to our recent stretch of warm temperatures, but it should
otherwise be a nice day for February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The weekend ends with a clipper system bringing 1-2" of snow to much
of the Northland, then warmer into the beginning of the work week as
the weather pattern shifts from northwest to southwest. Tuesday into
Wednesday a more organized low looks to develop in the Great Plains
and lift northeast towards the upper Great Lakes, but there still
remains considerable spread in solutions across models and their
ensembles. Precipitation appears likely across the Northland, but
when exactly, how much, and in what form (rain or snow) is a tough
call. Late in the week into the weekend northwest flow resumes with
a series of clippers bringing light snow and cooler temperatures.
Generally mild to near normal temperatures through the work week
with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s most days, except Monday and
Tuesday when highs may approach 40 in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Saturday into Sunday the clipper-like mid-level shortwave trough
moving from west to east across the northern Great Plains into the
upper Midwest looks to bring a quick round of light snowfall to
parts of the region. Based on the latest guidance precipitation
chances and amounts were raised slightly, with 1-2" possible across
a large swath of NE Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Given the
fast flow aloft, though, this storm isn`t likely to bring much more
than 2" of snow to a large area. Most of the snow looks to fall
early Sunday morning, ending by mid-day from west to east.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be milder as the synoptic scale
flow aloft changes from northwest to southwest flow in response to a
longwave mid/upper level wave deepening over the Great Basin region
into the Great Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of
the Rockies into the Great Plains Tuesday leading to a resultant
surface low deepening, but the exact timing/track of this low is
tough to discern at this point because of the wide variation in
model solutions. Generally this pattern looks to favor precipitation
across the upper Midwest, but there are numerous challenges with
large-scale forcing, moisture, and temperatures (at the surface and
aloft) to make it worthwhile to make an attempt at a more detailed
forecast. Model consensus is for precipitation to begin as early as
late Monday, ending towards Wednesday morning with rain mixing with
snow at times.

Late week northwest flow resumes in the wake of the mid-week system
with colder temperatures and occasional chances for light snowfall.
Temperatures may finally fall to below normal by the weekend, ending
our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. (The day with an
average temperature below normal at Duluth was Feb 9.)

Beyond the 7-day, both the GFS and ECMWF support a very active west-
northwest flow leading to the possibility of several powerful to
impact the upper Midwest next weekend. While still a long ways out,
definitely something to keep an eye on given the very good agreement
with the 12z GFS/ECMWF. (Though the 06z GFS has a much less dynamic
solution with a fairly flat flow supporting a weaker parade-of-
clippers scenario continuing into the weekend.)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Low pressure will continue to affect much of the Great Lakes
region through the night, and then lose it`s grip on the region on
Saturday. Most TAF sites, at least the sites in Minnesota, should
see VFR conditions throughout the period, but KHYR will see more
substantial areas of MVFR CIG`s and VSBY`s overnight. Most areas
will improve to VFR by late tonight or early Saturday. Some light
snow will also be possible in and around the KHYR site overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   5  26  16  27 /  10   0  60  30
INL   0  23   5  21 /   0  20  20  10
BRD   9  32  18  31 /   0  10  40  30
HYR   9  28  18  33 /  50  10  40  40
ASX  11  29  18  32 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-003-
     007>009.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 250022
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
622 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A robust band of snow set up over northwest Wisconsin this
morning, but it is slowly disintegrating, with weakening radar
returns. The radar has shown pretty robust lake effect snow
showers over Douglas and Bayfield county today, and the visibility
at Solon Springs dropped down to a mile and a half. Models are
indicating that frontogenesis with the band is weakening and
shifting southeast of the forecast area for the rest of the
afternoon and this evening. Snowfall reports so far this afternoon
have been under performing under the band as well, with no more
than 1.5 to 3 inches so far. Road reports from northwest Wisconsin
show no worse than slippery stretches as well. Thus, have down
graded the winter storm warnings to an Advisory for Ashland, Price
and Sawyer counties, but due to the fairly robust lake effect
bands have kept Iron county going for the remainder of the
warning. An advisory remains in effect for Bayfield and Burnett.
Snowfall amounts for the rest of the afternoon and night should
range from 2 to 4 inches, with more possible in the higher terrain
of Iron county around Hurley depending on the lake effect bands
that move across that area. Lake effect should continue into
Saturday morning, before diminishing as dry air moves in to weaken
the snow showers. Lows overnight tonight should fall into the
single digits to lower teens as the cirrus is departing and cold
air is moving into the area on the heels of the storm. Saturday
should have at least a short period of clear/nearly clear skies,
with high temperatures in the 20s to around 30. It might feel cold
due to our recent stretch of warm temperatures, but it should
otherwise be a nice day for February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The weekend ends with a clipper system bringing 1-2" of snow to much
of the Northland, then warmer into the beginning of the work week as
the weather pattern shifts from northwest to southwest. Tuesday into
Wednesday a more organized low looks to develop in the Great Plains
and lift northeast towards the upper Great Lakes, but there still
remains considerable spread in solutions across models and their
ensembles. Precipitation appears likely across the Northland, but
when exactly, how much, and in what form (rain or snow) is a tough
call. Late in the week into the weekend northwest flow resumes with
a series of clippers bringing light snow and cooler temperatures.
Generally mild to near normal temperatures through the work week
with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s most days, except Monday and
Tuesday when highs may approach 40 in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Saturday into Sunday the clipper-like mid-level shortwave trough
moving from west to east across the northern Great Plains into the
upper Midwest looks to bring a quick round of light snowfall to
parts of the region. Based on the latest guidance precipitation
chances and amounts were raised slightly, with 1-2" possible across
a large swath of NE Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Given the
fast flow aloft, though, this storm isn`t likely to bring much more
than 2" of snow to a large area. Most of the snow looks to fall
early Sunday morning, ending by mid-day from west to east.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be milder as the synoptic scale
flow aloft changes from northwest to southwest flow in response to a
longwave mid/upper level wave deepening over the Great Basin region
into the Great Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of
the Rockies into the Great Plains Tuesday leading to a resultant
surface low deepening, but the exact timing/track of this low is
tough to discern at this point because of the wide variation in
model solutions. Generally this pattern looks to favor precipitation
across the upper Midwest, but there are numerous challenges with
large-scale forcing, moisture, and temperatures (at the surface and
aloft) to make it worthwhile to make an attempt at a more detailed
forecast. Model consensus is for precipitation to begin as early as
late Monday, ending towards Wednesday morning with rain mixing with
snow at times.

Late week northwest flow resumes in the wake of the mid-week system
with colder temperatures and occasional chances for light snowfall.
Temperatures may finally fall to below normal by the weekend, ending
our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. (The day with an
average temperature below normal at Duluth was Feb 9.)

Beyond the 7-day, both the GFS and ECMWF support a very active west-
northwest flow leading to the possibility of several powerful to
impact the upper Midwest next weekend. While still a long ways out,
definitely something to keep an eye on given the very good agreement
with the 12z GFS/ECMWF. (Though the 06z GFS has a much less dynamic
solution with a fairly flat flow supporting a weaker parade-of-
clippers scenario continuing into the weekend.)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Low pressure will continue to affect much of the Great Lakes
region through the night, and then lose it`s grip on the region on
Saturday. Most TAF sites, at least the sites in Minnesota, should
see VFR conditions throughout the period, but KHYR will see more
substantial areas of MVFR CIG`s and VSBY`s overnight. Most areas
will improve to VFR by late tonight or early Saturday. Some light
snow will also be possible in and around the KHYR site overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  26  16  27 /  10   0  60  30
INL   4  23   5  21 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  10  32  18  31 /   0  10  40  30
HYR  12  28  18  33 /  50  10  40  40
ASX  14  29  18  32 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-003-
     007>009.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 250022
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
622 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A robust band of snow set up over northwest Wisconsin this
morning, but it is slowly disintegrating, with weakening radar
returns. The radar has shown pretty robust lake effect snow
showers over Douglas and Bayfield county today, and the visibility
at Solon Springs dropped down to a mile and a half. Models are
indicating that frontogenesis with the band is weakening and
shifting southeast of the forecast area for the rest of the
afternoon and this evening. Snowfall reports so far this afternoon
have been under performing under the band as well, with no more
than 1.5 to 3 inches so far. Road reports from northwest Wisconsin
show no worse than slippery stretches as well. Thus, have down
graded the winter storm warnings to an Advisory for Ashland, Price
and Sawyer counties, but due to the fairly robust lake effect
bands have kept Iron county going for the remainder of the
warning. An advisory remains in effect for Bayfield and Burnett.
Snowfall amounts for the rest of the afternoon and night should
range from 2 to 4 inches, with more possible in the higher terrain
of Iron county around Hurley depending on the lake effect bands
that move across that area. Lake effect should continue into
Saturday morning, before diminishing as dry air moves in to weaken
the snow showers. Lows overnight tonight should fall into the
single digits to lower teens as the cirrus is departing and cold
air is moving into the area on the heels of the storm. Saturday
should have at least a short period of clear/nearly clear skies,
with high temperatures in the 20s to around 30. It might feel cold
due to our recent stretch of warm temperatures, but it should
otherwise be a nice day for February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The weekend ends with a clipper system bringing 1-2" of snow to much
of the Northland, then warmer into the beginning of the work week as
the weather pattern shifts from northwest to southwest. Tuesday into
Wednesday a more organized low looks to develop in the Great Plains
and lift northeast towards the upper Great Lakes, but there still
remains considerable spread in solutions across models and their
ensembles. Precipitation appears likely across the Northland, but
when exactly, how much, and in what form (rain or snow) is a tough
call. Late in the week into the weekend northwest flow resumes with
a series of clippers bringing light snow and cooler temperatures.
Generally mild to near normal temperatures through the work week
with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s most days, except Monday and
Tuesday when highs may approach 40 in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Saturday into Sunday the clipper-like mid-level shortwave trough
moving from west to east across the northern Great Plains into the
upper Midwest looks to bring a quick round of light snowfall to
parts of the region. Based on the latest guidance precipitation
chances and amounts were raised slightly, with 1-2" possible across
a large swath of NE Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Given the
fast flow aloft, though, this storm isn`t likely to bring much more
than 2" of snow to a large area. Most of the snow looks to fall
early Sunday morning, ending by mid-day from west to east.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be milder as the synoptic scale
flow aloft changes from northwest to southwest flow in response to a
longwave mid/upper level wave deepening over the Great Basin region
into the Great Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of
the Rockies into the Great Plains Tuesday leading to a resultant
surface low deepening, but the exact timing/track of this low is
tough to discern at this point because of the wide variation in
model solutions. Generally this pattern looks to favor precipitation
across the upper Midwest, but there are numerous challenges with
large-scale forcing, moisture, and temperatures (at the surface and
aloft) to make it worthwhile to make an attempt at a more detailed
forecast. Model consensus is for precipitation to begin as early as
late Monday, ending towards Wednesday morning with rain mixing with
snow at times.

Late week northwest flow resumes in the wake of the mid-week system
with colder temperatures and occasional chances for light snowfall.
Temperatures may finally fall to below normal by the weekend, ending
our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. (The day with an
average temperature below normal at Duluth was Feb 9.)

Beyond the 7-day, both the GFS and ECMWF support a very active west-
northwest flow leading to the possibility of several powerful to
impact the upper Midwest next weekend. While still a long ways out,
definitely something to keep an eye on given the very good agreement
with the 12z GFS/ECMWF. (Though the 06z GFS has a much less dynamic
solution with a fairly flat flow supporting a weaker parade-of-
clippers scenario continuing into the weekend.)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Low pressure will continue to affect much of the Great Lakes
region through the night, and then lose it`s grip on the region on
Saturday. Most TAF sites, at least the sites in Minnesota, should
see VFR conditions throughout the period, but KHYR will see more
substantial areas of MVFR CIG`s and VSBY`s overnight. Most areas
will improve to VFR by late tonight or early Saturday. Some light
snow will also be possible in and around the KHYR site overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  26  16  27 /  10   0  60  30
INL   4  23   5  21 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  10  32  18  31 /   0  10  40  30
HYR  12  28  18  33 /  50  10  40  40
ASX  14  29  18  32 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-003-
     007>009.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 242329 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
529 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the surface low nearly over
KORD with its trailing cold front extending SSW into the ArkLaTex
region. High pressure sagging south from central Canada extends
well into the Northern Plains. Aloft, a pivoting upper level
trough is swinging through the area and will shift atop Lake
Michigan by daybreak tomorrow morning. The modest northwest flow
over the international border will bring in the surface high for
the weekend, drying out the atmosphere and producing a mix of sun
and clouds for tomorrow. Before we get to that point, there is
still snow ongoing in the far southeastern MN and southwestern WI
portions of the WFO MPX coverage area. Winds are still in the
15-25 mph range while the snowfall intensity has gradually
diminished. Thus, while Blizzard conditions are no longer
expected, there still may well likely be some blowing/drifting and
visibility issues for those areas, including parts of I-35 and
I-94 well SE of the Twin Cities. This snowfall will gradually
diminish through the evening, resulting in potentially up to an
additional 2-3 inches in those far eastern areas. Otherwise, as
mentioned above, conditions will improve overnight through the day
tomorrow, with the colder air remaining in place. Lows tonight
will be the coldest the area has experienced in some time as
minimum temperatures drop into the teens, which are actually
normal values for late February. Highs on Saturday will then hold
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

On Saturday night, at trough of low pressure pushing east across
North Dakota will bring some light snow to northern MN, grazing
central MN north of I-94. This will be a fast-moving system and
any accumulation in central MN will be under an inch, so little
has changed with the forecast with this wave.

The next opportunity for precipitation will come Monday Night-
Tuesday when a strong system is expected to develop and affect the
Upper-Midwest.  At this stage, the track of the surface low varies
quite a bit, as does exact timing.  Still, we continue to feel
confident enough to go with 60% chance of precipitation for
eastern MN and western WI during this period. The latest
guidance cooled the system some with cooler air in place from the
north, but daytime highs still dictate p-type for now. You`ll
notice the forecast calls for a combination of rain and snow,
following a diurnal trend Monday night through Tuesday.

As we head into early March, a northwesterly flow jet stream will
setup across our area, meaning the pattern will be favorable for
fast moving clipper systems to move through the area.  Next
Wednesday night through Thursday looks to have a clipper moving
through the region but it`s too far out in time to discuss
precipitation details with this.

In terms of temperatures over the next week, slightly above normal
temperatures are generally expected with highs commonly in the
mid-30s. Overnight lows will dip into the teens and twenties
every night. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler across
the deep snow pack in far southern MN through west central
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions expected other than KEAU which will be IFR with
snow for the next few hours. Then, VFR conditions expected
overnight.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN Mon night. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for WIZ015-016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for MNZ078-085-
     093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 242213
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the surface low nearly over
KORD with its trailing cold front extending SSW into the ArkLaTex
region. High pressure sagging south from central Canada extends
well into the Northern Plains. Aloft, a pivoting upper level
trough is swinging through the area and will shift atop Lake
Michigan by daybreak tomorrow morning. The modest northwest flow
over the international border will bring in the surface high for
the weekend, drying out the atmosphere and producing a mix of sun
and clouds for tomorrow. Before we get to that point, there is
still snow ongoing in the far southeastern MN and southwestern WI
portions of the WFO MPX coverage area. Winds are still in the
15-25 mph range while the snowfall intensity has gradually
diminished. Thus, while Blizzard conditions are no longer
expected, there still may well likely be some blowing/drifting and
visibility issues for those areas, including parts of I-35 and
I-94 well SE of the Twin Cities. This snowfall will gradually
diminish through the evening, resulting in potentially up to an
additional 2-3 inches in those far eastern areas. Otherwise, as
mentioned above, conditions will improve overnight through the day
tomorrow, with the colder air remaining in place. Lows tonight
will be the coldest the area has experienced in some time as
minimum temperatures drop into the teens, which are actually
normal values for late February. Highs on Saturday will then hold
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

On Saturday night, at trough of low pressure pushing east across
North Dakota will bring some light snow to northern MN, grazing
central MN north of I-94. This will be a fast-moving system and
any accumulation in central MN will be under an inch, so little
has changed with the forecast with this wave.

The next opportunity for precipitation will come Monday Night-
Tuesday when a strong system is expected to develop and affect the
Upper-Midwest.  At this stage, the track of the surface low varies
quite a bit, as does exact timing.  Still, we continue to feel
confident enough to go with 60% chance of precipitation for
eastern MN and western WI during this period. The latest
guidance cooled the system some with cooler air in place from the
north, but daytime highs still dictate p-type for now. You`ll
notice the forecast calls for a combination of rain and snow,
following a diurnal trend Monday night through Tuesday.

As we head into early March, a northwesterly flow jet stream will
setup across our area, meaning the pattern will be favorable for
fast moving clipper systems to move through the area.  Next
Wednesday night through Thursday looks to have a clipper moving
through the region but it`s too far out in time to discuss
precipitation details with this.

In terms of temperatures over the next week, slightly above normal
temperatures are generally expected with highs commonly in the
mid-30s. Overnight lows will dip into the teens and twenties
every night. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler across
the deep snow pack in far southern MN through west central
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

All MN TAF sites are now free from precipitation while the WI TAF
sites will still receive additional -SN through this evening. MVFR
conditions will be prevalent across the region, with some IFR
visibilities possible in some heavier bands of -SN at the WI TAF
sites. The -SN will diminish overnight and all sites will see an
improvement to VFR mid-level ceilings. Clouds will then scatter
out tomorrow with only upper level CS or CC clouds expected. N
winds will slowly back to NW through tomorrow while speeds
diminish to around 10 knots by tomorrow.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings will linger to around the start of the
afternoon/evening push and could last a little longer than
advertised. VFR conditions are then expected by mid-evening and
will continue through tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for WIZ015-016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for MNZ070-077-
     078-084-085-092-093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 242213
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the surface low nearly over
KORD with its trailing cold front extending SSW into the ArkLaTex
region. High pressure sagging south from central Canada extends
well into the Northern Plains. Aloft, a pivoting upper level
trough is swinging through the area and will shift atop Lake
Michigan by daybreak tomorrow morning. The modest northwest flow
over the international border will bring in the surface high for
the weekend, drying out the atmosphere and producing a mix of sun
and clouds for tomorrow. Before we get to that point, there is
still snow ongoing in the far southeastern MN and southwestern WI
portions of the WFO MPX coverage area. Winds are still in the
15-25 mph range while the snowfall intensity has gradually
diminished. Thus, while Blizzard conditions are no longer
expected, there still may well likely be some blowing/drifting and
visibility issues for those areas, including parts of I-35 and
I-94 well SE of the Twin Cities. This snowfall will gradually
diminish through the evening, resulting in potentially up to an
additional 2-3 inches in those far eastern areas. Otherwise, as
mentioned above, conditions will improve overnight through the day
tomorrow, with the colder air remaining in place. Lows tonight
will be the coldest the area has experienced in some time as
minimum temperatures drop into the teens, which are actually
normal values for late February. Highs on Saturday will then hold
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

On Saturday night, at trough of low pressure pushing east across
North Dakota will bring some light snow to northern MN, grazing
central MN north of I-94. This will be a fast-moving system and
any accumulation in central MN will be under an inch, so little
has changed with the forecast with this wave.

The next opportunity for precipitation will come Monday Night-
Tuesday when a strong system is expected to develop and affect the
Upper-Midwest.  At this stage, the track of the surface low varies
quite a bit, as does exact timing.  Still, we continue to feel
confident enough to go with 60% chance of precipitation for
eastern MN and western WI during this period. The latest
guidance cooled the system some with cooler air in place from the
north, but daytime highs still dictate p-type for now. You`ll
notice the forecast calls for a combination of rain and snow,
following a diurnal trend Monday night through Tuesday.

As we head into early March, a northwesterly flow jet stream will
setup across our area, meaning the pattern will be favorable for
fast moving clipper systems to move through the area.  Next
Wednesday night through Thursday looks to have a clipper moving
through the region but it`s too far out in time to discuss
precipitation details with this.

In terms of temperatures over the next week, slightly above normal
temperatures are generally expected with highs commonly in the
mid-30s. Overnight lows will dip into the teens and twenties
every night. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler across
the deep snow pack in far southern MN through west central
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

All MN TAF sites are now free from precipitation while the WI TAF
sites will still receive additional -SN through this evening. MVFR
conditions will be prevalent across the region, with some IFR
visibilities possible in some heavier bands of -SN at the WI TAF
sites. The -SN will diminish overnight and all sites will see an
improvement to VFR mid-level ceilings. Clouds will then scatter
out tomorrow with only upper level CS or CC clouds expected. N
winds will slowly back to NW through tomorrow while speeds
diminish to around 10 knots by tomorrow.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings will linger to around the start of the
afternoon/evening push and could last a little longer than
advertised. VFR conditions are then expected by mid-evening and
will continue through tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for WIZ015-016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for MNZ070-077-
     078-084-085-092-093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 242158
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
358 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A robust band of snow set up over northwest Wisconsin this
morning, but it is slowly disintegrating, with weakening radar
returns. The radar has shown pretty robust lake effect snow
showers over Douglas and Bayfield county today, and the visibility
at Solon Springs dropped down to a mile and a half. Models are
indicating that frontogenesis with the band is weakening and
shifting southeast of the forecast area for the rest of the
afternoon and this evening. Snowfall reports so far this afternoon
have been under performing under the band as well, with no more
than 1.5 to 3 inches so far. Road reports from northwest Wisconsin
show no worse than slippery stretches as well. Thus, have down
graded the winter storm warnings to an Advisory for Ashland, Price
and Sawyer counties, but due to the fairly robust lake effect
bands have kept Iron county going for the remainder of the
warning. An advisory remains in effect for Bayfield and Burnett.
Snowfall amounts for the rest of the afternoon and night should
range from 2 to 4 inches, with more possible in the higher terrain
of Iron county around Hurley depending on the lake effect bands
that move across that area. Lake effect should continue into
Saturday morning, before diminishing as dry air moves in to weaken
the snow showers. Lows overnight tonight should fall into the
single digits to lower teens as the cirrus is departing and cold
air is moving into the area on the heels of the storm. Saturday
should have at least a short period of clear/nearly clear skies,
with high temperatures in the 20s to around 30. It might feel cold
due to our recent stretch of warm temperatures, but it should
otherwise be a nice day for February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The weekend ends with a clipper system bringing 1-2" of snow to much
of the Northland, then warmer into the beginning of the work week as
the weather pattern shifts from northwest to southwest. Tuesday into
Wednesday a more organized low looks to develop in the Great Plains
and lift northeast towards the upper Great Lakes, but there still
remains considerable spread in solutions across models and their
ensembles. Precipitation appears likely across the Northland, but
when exactly, how much, and in what form (rain or snow) is a tough
call. Late in the week into the weekend northwest flow resumes with
a series of clippers bringing light snow and cooler temperatures.
Generally mild to near normal temperatures through the work week
with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s most days, except Monday and
Tuesday when highs may approach 40 in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Saturday into Sunday the clipper-like mid-level shortwave trough
moving from west to east across the northern Great Plains into the
upper Midwest looks to bring a quick round of light snowfall to
parts of the region. Based on the latest guidance precipitation
chances and amounts were raised slightly, with 1-2" possible across
a large swath of NE Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Given the
fast flow aloft, though, this storm isn`t likely to bring much more
than 2" of snow to a large area. Most of the snow looks to fall
early Sunday morning, ending by mid-day from west to east.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be milder as the synoptic scale
flow aloft changes from northwest to southwest flow in response to a
longwave mid/upper level wave deepening over the Great Basin region
into the Great Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of
the Rockies into the Great Plains Tuesday leading to a resultant
surface low deepening, but the exact timing/track of this low is
tough to discern at this point because of the wide variation in
model solutions. Generally this pattern looks to favor precipitation
across the upper Midwest, but there are numerous challenges with
large-scale forcing, moisture, and temperatures (at the surface and
aloft) to make it worthwhile to make an attempt at a more detailed
forecast. Model consensus is for precipitation to begin as early as
late Monday, ending towards Wednesday morning with rain mixing with
snow at times.

Late week northwest flow resumes in the wake of the mid-week system
with colder temperatures and occasional chances for light snowfall.
Temperatures may finally fall to below normal by the weekend, ending
our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. (The day with an
average temperature below normal at Duluth was Feb 9.)

Beyond the 7-day, both the GFS and ECMWF support a very active west-
northwest flow leading to the possibility of several powerful to
impact the upper Midwest next weekend. While still a long ways out,
definitely something to keep an eye on given the very good agreement
with the 12z GFS/ECMWF. (Though the 06z GFS has a much less dynamic
solution with a fairly flat flow supporting a weaker parade-of-
clippers scenario continuing into the weekend.)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the day across
northeast Minnesota with MVFR to IFR conditions at HYR in
northwest Wisconsin. Light to moderate snowfall will continue off
and on at HYR with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities through
the evening, with improvement to VFR late tonight. At other sites
VFR ceilings today then the possibility for MVFR ceilings
overnight tonight, most likely at INL due to an area stratus
gradually approaching from the north. Otherwise increasing north
to north-northwest winds through the night, gusting over 20 knots
at times. Saturday morning any stratus should dissipate with skies
clearing and winds starting to diminish.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  26  16  27 /  10   0  60  30
INL   4  23   5  21 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  10  32  18  31 /   0  10  40  30
HYR  12  28  18  33 /  50  10  40  40
ASX  14  29  18  32 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-003-
     007>009.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241815
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1215 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Updated to include 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main short term concern remains headlines and
additional snow today.

Latest radar and satellite trends indicate the fine snow fall
gradient will be across the southeast metro today. Tried to fine
tune amounts to the northwest some from earlier adjustment. This
lead to canceling Redwood, Sibley, and Scott from the advisory
with less than 2 inches expected today. Otherwise, let the
remaining headlines go, with fine tuning the blizzard expiration
to 06z over south central MN and left the winter storm warning go
through 12z Sat into west central Wisconsin. Expect another surge
of snow to lift over the Southeast third of the cwa, with an
additional 6 inches possible east of a Albert Lea...Menomonie
line. Lesser totals to the west, with the northwest metro
remaining dry. Strong north winds will develop as the surface low
tracks toward Chicago this morning. Some guts to 40 mph possible
over south central Minnesota causing low visibility/blizzard
conditions with the falling snow, at least through the morning.
MNDOT continues to mention travel not advised over the southern 2
tier of counties in south central MN.

Improving conditions expected through 06z Saturday over MN with
slowly diminishing winds. The warning over west central Wisconsin
will likely need to be cancelled early, as the system pulls east
into the southern Great Lakes region overnight. Lows tonight will
drop off through the teens at least and could be colder over the
fresh snow covered areas if winds and clouds decrease quicker than
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

An strong jet across the CONUS will yield an active long term
period with temperatures running near to a little above normal.
Chances for precip will come Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday with
the system Tuesday looking to have the greatest potential for more
significant precip amounts.

We`ll start the long term with zonal flow in the wake of the
system passing to our south today. Within this zonal flow, we`ll
see a shortwave/clipper worker across central MN and northern WI.
Starting to see better model agreement on some light snow
accompanying this shortwave across northern sections of the MPX
area and now have some chance pops Saturday night/Sunday morning
north of I-94. This wave will be moving through, so any precip
amounts we see will be fairly minor with maybe a half inch of snow
possible.

Behind this wave, we see heights build again Sunday into Monday.
Where snow does not fall today, we will likely see high poke back
up into the low 40s ahead of a weak cold front that will move
through Monday night.

For Tuesday, models continue to show a high degree of variability
with this system, though the GFS is starting to trend toward the
ECMWF. Because of that, we have some high chance and even likely
pops now for Tuesday. At the moment, we are warm enough in the
grids to make this a mainly liquid event. However, the ECMWF did
track back southeast with this system with the 00z run, bringing
the potential for accumulating snow to the area. Given the little
run to run consistency, stuck with our warmer/rainier forecast,
but we will have to watch trends closely with this system.

Behind the Tuesday wave, we look to get into more of a northwest
flow, and within this flow, both the GFS/ECMWF show a clipper
working across the upper MS Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. its
not until we get on the backside of the clipper do we look to have
a shot at temperatures dipping below normal. Until then, we will
continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal. Currently, our average
temperature for the month of February is only a half degree off
the pace for making this the warmest February on record at the
Twin Cities. However, we will be cool enough to end the month to
keep us from getting there, but we should be able to maintain our
spot in the top 10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

All MN TAF sites are now free from precipitation while the WI TAF
sites will still receive additional -SN through this evening. MVFR
conditions will be prevalent across the region, with some IFR
visibilities possible in some heavier bands of -SN at the WI TAF
sites. The -SN will diminish overnight and all sites will see an
improvement to VFR mid-level ceilings. Clouds will then scatter
out tomorrow with only upper level CS or CC clouds expected. N
winds will slowly back to NW through tomorrow while speeds
diminish to around 10 knots by tomorrow.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings will linger to around the start of the
afternoon/evening push and could last a little longer than
advertised. VFR conditions are then expected by mid-evening and
will continue through tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ016-024>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ015-
     023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ063-
     070.

     Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ074>078-
     082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 241754
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow is still on its way for northwest Wisconsin today into
tonight. The Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings
remain in effect for northwest Wisconsin except Douglas and
Burnett counties.

Low pressure was located in northeast Missouri as of 09Z and the
models have a good handle on this. Most of the models agree on
moving this low into southwest lower Michigan by 00Z Saturday and
over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday. The low will then continue north
through the day Saturday. Area radars were showing snow was
lifting north toward Price/Sawyer Counties as of 0930Z. A strong
period of FGEN forcing was partially responsible for the snow and
is forecast to be over parts of northern Wisconsin this morning
before weakening and moving east later this afternoon. In addition
to the forcing from the low pressure system and FGEN, there will
be lake processes as well. North to northeast winds this morning
will back to north to northwest tonight before becoming west to
northwest Saturday afternoon. We did lower the snowfall forecast
and there will likely be a sharp gradient on the west side. Little
snow is expected across Pine/Burnett counties with amounts
increasing to 5 to 9 inches from Price County north to Iron
County. There may be some lake effect snow bringing up to an inch
or so to northern Douglas County today. Gusty northerly winds will
lead to some blowing and drifting as well as the snow piles up.

The snow will diminish from west to east tonight but continue to
be likely over the snowbelt of Ashland/Iron Counties into Saturday
morning. As winds back on Saturday the chance for lake effect
snow will diminish.

Highs today will be in the twenties for most areas then range
from the 20 to 30 on Saturday with the warmest temperatures from
the Brainerd Lakes region to Siren.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main challenges for the long term include periodic snow
chances through the weekend and early next week followed by a
potential storm system Monday night through Wednesday morning.

A few lingering lake effect snow showers may affect northwest
Wisconsin Saturday evening in the wake of the departing winter
storm. A weak shortwave trough will move across northern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin late overnight and Sunday as a broad
ridge of high pressure over the Middle and Lower Mississippi River
Valley prevents any return flow ahead of the clipper. The trough
will be accompanied by a modest plume of Pacific moisture and may
squeeze out a few snow showers. Accumulations should be light,
generally less than an inch. A more subtle trough may follow the
clipper Sunday night with a slight chance of a few flakes in far
northern Minnesota. Temperatures through the remainder of the
weekend into Monday will trend near normal. Overnight lows
Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the single digits to
teens above zero. Daytime highs Sunday will reach the 20s to low
30s.

Attention then shifts to a deeper trough of low pressure digging
into the West Coast Sunday night and Monday. The approach of the
trough will shift the mid-level flow to quasi-zonal for Monday,
allowing a return to much above normal temperatures. South to
southwesterly winds in the low- and mid-levels will bring
additional moisture along with the warmer temperatures. As the
trough moves across the Rockies, look for lee cyclogenesis over
southern Colorado. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions
diverge rapidly by late Monday night and early Tuesday. The
surface low is forecast to track generally eastward across the
Western Great Lakes or Upper Midwest and will likely bring a swath
of accumulating snow to the region. As we observed with the
handling of the current system, the wide spread in solutions leads
to low confidence in any particular outcome. Anyone with travel
plans Monday night through Wednesday is encouraged to keep up with
the forecast as new information is incorporated.

In the wake of the early/midweek system, the mid-level pattern
will shift to a fast northwest flow. The deterministic models each
feature a shortwave trough diving southeast from Alberta and into
the western Great Lakes late Wednesday night and Thursday. That
system may bring another brief period of snow to the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the day across
northeast Minnesota with MVFR to IFR conditions at HYR in
northwest Wisconsin. Light to moderate snowfall will continue off
and on at HYR with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities through
the evening, with improvement to VFR late tonight. At other sites
VFR ceilings today then the possibility for MVFR ceilings
overnight tonight, most likely at INL due to an area stratus
gradually approaching from the north. Otherwise increasing north
to north-northwest winds through the night, gusting over 20 knots
at times. Saturday morning any stratus should dissipate with skies
clearing and winds starting to diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  10  25  14 /  20  10   0  30
INL  21   5  22   5 /   0  10  10  20
BRD  26  11  31  18 /  10   0   0  30
HYR  27  12  27  16 /  90  50  10  30
ASX  26  15  28  17 /  90 100  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004-008-
     009.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 241228 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Update for new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow is still on its way for northwest Wisconsin today into
tonight. The Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings
remain in effect for northwest Wisconsin except Douglas and
Burnett counties.

Low pressure was located in northeast Missouri as of 09Z and the
models have a good handle on this. Most of the models agree on
moving this low into southwest lower Michigan by 00Z Saturday and
over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday. The low will then continue north
through the day Saturday. Area radars were showing snow was
lifting north toward Price/Sawyer Counties as of 0930Z. A strong
period of FGEN forcing was partially responsible for the snow and
is forecast to be over parts of northern Wisconsin this morning
before weakening and moving east later this afternoon. In addition
to the forcing from the low pressure system and FGEN, there will
be lake processes as well. North to northeast winds this morning
will back to north to northwest tonight before becoming west to
northwest Saturday afternoon. We did lower the snowfall forecast
and there will likely be a sharp gradient on the west side. Little
snow is expected across Pine/Burnett counties with amounts
increasing to 5 to 9 inches from Price County north to Iron
County. There may be some lake effect snow bringing up to an inch
or so to northern Douglas County today. Gusty northerly winds will
lead to some blowing and drifting as well as the snow piles up.

The snow will diminish from west to east tonight but continue to
be likely over the snowbelt of Ashland/Iron Counties into Saturday
morning. As winds back on Saturday the chance for lake effect
snow will diminish.

Highs today will be in the twenties for most areas then range
from the 20 to 30 on Saturday with the warmest temperatures from
the Brainerd Lakes region to Siren.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main challenges for the long term include periodic snow
chances through the weekend and early next week followed by a
potential storm system Monday night through Wednesday morning.

A few lingering lake effect snow showers may affect northwest
Wisconsin Saturday evening in the wake of the departing winter
storm. A weak shortwave trough will move across northern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin late overnight and Sunday as a broad
ridge of high pressure over the Middle and Lower Mississippi River
Valley prevents any return flow ahead of the clipper. The trough
will be accompanied by a modest plume of Pacific moisture and may
squeeze out a few snow showers. Accumulations should be light,
generally less than an inch. A more subtle trough may follow the
clipper Sunday night with a slight chance of a few flakes in far
northern Minnesota. Temperatures through the remainder of the
weekend into Monday will trend near normal. Overnight lows
Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the single digits to
teens above zero. Daytime highs Sunday will reach the 20s to low
30s.

Attention then shifts to a deeper trough of low pressure digging
into the West Coast Sunday night and Monday. The approach of the
trough will shift the mid-level flow to quasi-zonal for Monday,
allowing a return to much above normal temperatures. South to
southwesterly winds in the low- and mid-levels will bring
additional moisture along with the warmer temperatures. As the
trough moves across the Rockies, look for lee cyclogenesis over
southern Colorado. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions
diverge rapidly by late Monday night and early Tuesday. The
surface low is forecast to track generally eastward across the
Western Great Lakes or Upper Midwest and will likely bring a swath
of accumulating snow to the region. As we observed with the
handling of the current system, the wide spread in solutions leads
to low confidence in any particular outcome. Anyone with travel
plans Monday night through Wednesday is encouraged to keep up with
the forecast as new information is incorporated.

In the wake of the early/midweek system, the mid-level pattern
will shift to a fast northwest flow. The deterministic models each
feature a shortwave trough diving southeast from Alberta and into
the western Great Lakes late Wednesday night and Thursday. That
system may bring another brief period of snow to the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

MVFR ceilings were found at HYR and DLH this morning due to lake
effect processes. Expect the lower ceilings to persist at both
sites until winds veer away from Lake Superior. Light snow is
expected to move into HYR this morning and intensify this
afternoon. Most of the snow, along with much lower visibility,
will be found east of HYR including PBH and possibly ASX. A few
lake effect snow showers may drift through DLH today, but
confidence is low and visibility reductions should be limited. A
few snow showers may affect INL late this afternoon and tonight.
Opted for VCSH at INL and DLH due to low confidence. Low pressure
departs the region beginning tonight. Cool air advection behind
the departing low and a tightening pressure gradient will raise
wind speeds and gusts tonight through Saturday morning. There is a
potential for LLWS at BRD after 25.06Z. Confidence in this
forecast package is average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  10  25  14 /  20  10   0  30
INL  21   5  22   5 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  26  11  31  18 /  10   0   0  30
HYR  27  12  27  16 /  80  60  10  30
ASX  26  15  28  17 /  70  70  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004-008-
     009.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KDLH 241228 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Update for new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow is still on its way for northwest Wisconsin today into
tonight. The Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings
remain in effect for northwest Wisconsin except Douglas and
Burnett counties.

Low pressure was located in northeast Missouri as of 09Z and the
models have a good handle on this. Most of the models agree on
moving this low into southwest lower Michigan by 00Z Saturday and
over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday. The low will then continue north
through the day Saturday. Area radars were showing snow was
lifting north toward Price/Sawyer Counties as of 0930Z. A strong
period of FGEN forcing was partially responsible for the snow and
is forecast to be over parts of northern Wisconsin this morning
before weakening and moving east later this afternoon. In addition
to the forcing from the low pressure system and FGEN, there will
be lake processes as well. North to northeast winds this morning
will back to north to northwest tonight before becoming west to
northwest Saturday afternoon. We did lower the snowfall forecast
and there will likely be a sharp gradient on the west side. Little
snow is expected across Pine/Burnett counties with amounts
increasing to 5 to 9 inches from Price County north to Iron
County. There may be some lake effect snow bringing up to an inch
or so to northern Douglas County today. Gusty northerly winds will
lead to some blowing and drifting as well as the snow piles up.

The snow will diminish from west to east tonight but continue to
be likely over the snowbelt of Ashland/Iron Counties into Saturday
morning. As winds back on Saturday the chance for lake effect
snow will diminish.

Highs today will be in the twenties for most areas then range
from the 20 to 30 on Saturday with the warmest temperatures from
the Brainerd Lakes region to Siren.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main challenges for the long term include periodic snow
chances through the weekend and early next week followed by a
potential storm system Monday night through Wednesday morning.

A few lingering lake effect snow showers may affect northwest
Wisconsin Saturday evening in the wake of the departing winter
storm. A weak shortwave trough will move across northern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin late overnight and Sunday as a broad
ridge of high pressure over the Middle and Lower Mississippi River
Valley prevents any return flow ahead of the clipper. The trough
will be accompanied by a modest plume of Pacific moisture and may
squeeze out a few snow showers. Accumulations should be light,
generally less than an inch. A more subtle trough may follow the
clipper Sunday night with a slight chance of a few flakes in far
northern Minnesota. Temperatures through the remainder of the
weekend into Monday will trend near normal. Overnight lows
Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the single digits to
teens above zero. Daytime highs Sunday will reach the 20s to low
30s.

Attention then shifts to a deeper trough of low pressure digging
into the West Coast Sunday night and Monday. The approach of the
trough will shift the mid-level flow to quasi-zonal for Monday,
allowing a return to much above normal temperatures. South to
southwesterly winds in the low- and mid-levels will bring
additional moisture along with the warmer temperatures. As the
trough moves across the Rockies, look for lee cyclogenesis over
southern Colorado. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions
diverge rapidly by late Monday night and early Tuesday. The
surface low is forecast to track generally eastward across the
Western Great Lakes or Upper Midwest and will likely bring a swath
of accumulating snow to the region. As we observed with the
handling of the current system, the wide spread in solutions leads
to low confidence in any particular outcome. Anyone with travel
plans Monday night through Wednesday is encouraged to keep up with
the forecast as new information is incorporated.

In the wake of the early/midweek system, the mid-level pattern
will shift to a fast northwest flow. The deterministic models each
feature a shortwave trough diving southeast from Alberta and into
the western Great Lakes late Wednesday night and Thursday. That
system may bring another brief period of snow to the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

MVFR ceilings were found at HYR and DLH this morning due to lake
effect processes. Expect the lower ceilings to persist at both
sites until winds veer away from Lake Superior. Light snow is
expected to move into HYR this morning and intensify this
afternoon. Most of the snow, along with much lower visibility,
will be found east of HYR including PBH and possibly ASX. A few
lake effect snow showers may drift through DLH today, but
confidence is low and visibility reductions should be limited. A
few snow showers may affect INL late this afternoon and tonight.
Opted for VCSH at INL and DLH due to low confidence. Low pressure
departs the region beginning tonight. Cool air advection behind
the departing low and a tightening pressure gradient will raise
wind speeds and gusts tonight through Saturday morning. There is a
potential for LLWS at BRD after 25.06Z. Confidence in this
forecast package is average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  10  25  14 /  20  10   0  30
INL  21   5  22   5 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  26  11  31  18 /  10   0   0  30
HYR  27  12  27  16 /  80  60  10  30
ASX  26  15  28  17 /  70  70  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004-008-
     009.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241128
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
528 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main short term concern remains headlines and
additional snow today.

Latest radar and satellite trends indicate the fine snow fall
gradient will be across the southeast metro today.  Tried to fine
tune amounts to the northwest some from earlier adjustment. This
lead to canceling Redwood, Sibley, and Scott from the advisory
with less than 2 inches expected today. Otherwise, let the
remaining headlines go, with fine tuning the blizzard expiration
to 06z over south central MN and left the winter storm warning go
through 12z Sat into west central Wisconsin. Expect another surge
of snow to lift over the Southeast third of the cwa, with an
additional 6 inches possible east of a Albert Lea...Menomonie
line. Lesser totals to the west, with the northwest metro
remaining dry. Strong north winds will develop as the surface low
tracks toward Chicago this morning. Some guts to 40 mph possible
over south central Minnesota causing low visibility/blizzard
conditions with the falling snow, at least through the morning.
MNDOT continues to mention travel not advised over the southern 2
tier of counties in south central MN.

Improving conditions expected through 06z Saturday over MN with
slowly diminishing winds. The warning over west central Wisconsin
will likely need to be cancelled early, as the system pulls east
into the southern Great Lakes region overnight. Lows tonight will
drop off through the teens at least and could be colder over the
fresh snow covered areas if winds and clouds decrease quicker than
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

An strong jet across the CONUS will yield an active long term period
with temperatures running near to a little above normal. Chances
for precip will come Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday with the system
Tuesday looking to have the greatest potential for more
significant precip amounts.

We`ll start the long term with zonal flow in the wake of the
system passing to our south today. Within this zonal flow, we`ll
see a shortwave/clipper worker across central MN and northern WI.
Starting to see better model agreement on some light snow
accompanying this shortwave across northern sections of the MPX
area and now have some chance pops Saturday night/Sunday morning
north of I-94. This wave will be moving through, so any precip
amounts we see will be fairly minor with maybe a half inch of snow
possible.

Behind this wave, we see heights build again Sunday into Monday.
Where snow does not fall today, we will likely see high poke back
up into the low 40s ahead of a weak cold front that will move
through Monday night.

For Tuesday, models continue to show a high degree of variability
with this system, though the GFS is starting to trend toward the
ECMWF. Because of that, we have some high chance and even likely
pops now for Tuesday. At the moment, we are warm enough in the
grids to make this a mainly liquid event. However, the ECMWF did
track back southeast with this system with the 00z run, bringing
the potential for accumulating snow to the area. Given the little
run to run consistency, stuck with our warmer/rainier forecast,
but we will have to watch trends closely with this system.

Behind the Tuesday wave, we look to get into more of a northwest
flow, and within this flow, both the GFS/ECMWF show a clipper
working across the upper MS Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. its
not until we get on the backside of the clipper do we look to have
a shot at temperatures dipping below normal. Until then, we will
continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal. Currently, our average
temperature for the month of February is only a half degree off
the pace for making this the warmest February on record at the
Twin Cities. However, we will be cool enough to end the month to
keep us from getting there, but we should be able to maintain our
spot in the top 10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

As was forecast earlier...the snow is likely remain south of
KMSP and KRWF...and possibly KRNH. Some threat of MVFR cigs mainly
east during the period. KEAU will be under IFR or lower snow for
the next 18 hours at least. Snowfall could top one foot i the
hoover snow bands linger there through the morning. Mainly vfr
trend elsewhere. Strong n-nw winds developing today...diminishing
from west to east tonight.

KMSP...We still expect snow to remain south/southeast of the
terminal. Main concern is the gusty north northeast winds and cigs
lowering to 4-5k feet and lingering into the evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat night...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ016-024>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ015-
     023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ063-
     070.

     Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ074>078-
     082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241018
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
418 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main short term concern remains headlines and
additional snow today.

Latest radar and satellite trends indicate the fine snow fall
gradient will be across the southeast metro today.  Tried to fine
tune amounts to the northwest some from earlier adjustment. This
lead to canceling Redwood, Sibley, and Scott from the advisory
with less than 2 inches expected today. Otherwise, let the
remaining headlines go, with fine tuning the blizzard expiration
to 06z over south central MN and left the winter storm warning go
through 12z Sat into west central Wisconsin. Expect another surge
of snow to lift over the Southeast third of the cwa, with an
additional 6 inches possible east of a Albert Lea...Menomonie
line. Lesser totals to the west, with the northwest metro
remaining dry. Strong north winds will develop as the surface low
tracks toward Chicago this morning. Some guts to 40 mph possible
over south central Minnesota causing low visibility/blizzard
conditions with the falling snow, at least through the morning.
MNDOT continues to mention travel not advised over the southern 2
tier of counties in south central MN.

Improving conditions expected through 06z Saturday over MN with
slowly diminishing winds. The warning over west central Wisconsin
will likely need to be cancelled early, as the system pulls east
into the southern Great Lakes region overnight. Lows tonight will
drop off through the teens at least and could be colder over the
fresh snow covered areas if winds and clouds decrease quicker than
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

An strong jet across the CONUS will yield an active long term period
with temperatures running near to a little above normal. Chances
for precip will come Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday with the system
Tuesday looking to have the greatest potential for more
significant precip amounts.

We`ll start the long term with zonal flow in the wake of the
system passing to our south today. Within this zonal flow, we`ll
see a shortwave/clipper worker across central MN and northern WI.
Starting to see better model agreement on some light snow
accompanying this shortwave across northern sections of the MPX
area and now have some chance pops Saturday night/Sunday morning
north of I-94. This wave will be moving through, so any precip
amounts we see will be fairly minor with maybe a half inch of snow
possible.

Behind this wave, we see heights build again Sunday into Monday.
Where snow does not fall today, we will likely see high poke back
up into the low 40s ahead of a weak cold front that will move
through Monday night.

For Tuesday, models continue to show a high degree of variability
with this system, though the GFS is starting to trend toward the
ECMWF. Because of that, we have some high chance and even likely
pops now for Tuesday. At the moment, we are warm enough in the
grids to make this a mainly liquid event. However, the ECMWF did
track back southeast with this system with the 00z run, bringing
the potential for accumulating snow to the area. Given the little
run to run consistency, stuck with our warmer/rainier forecast,
but we will have to watch trends closely with this system.

Behind the Tuesday wave, we look to get into more of a northwest
flow, and within this flow, both the GFS/ECMWF show a clipper
working across the upper MS Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. its
not until we get on the backside of the clipper do we look to have
a shot at temperatures dipping below normal. Until then, we will
continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal. Currently, our average
temperature for the month of February is only a half degree off
the pace for making this the warmest February on record at the
Twin Cities. However, we will be cool enough to end the month to
keep us from getting there, but we should be able to maintain our
spot in the top 10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The snow now appears to likely remain south of KMSP, KRNH, and
KRWF. However, some MVFR cigs are likely at times tonight and
Friday. KEAU will be under IFR or lower snow for the next 18 hours
or so with several inches expected. Thunderstorms will be
confined to far southern Minnesota. No concerns for KSTC or KAXN.

KMSP...The snow should remain south/southeast of the terminal by
10 to 20 miles. Main concern is the gusty north northeast winds
and occasional MVFR cigs for the next 18 hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ016-024>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ015-
     023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ063-
     070.

     Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ074>078-
     082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 241001
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow is still on its way for northwest Wisconsin today into
tonight. The Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings
remain in effect for northwest Wisconsin except Douglas and
Burnett counties.

Low pressure was located in northeast Missouri as of 09Z and the
models have a good handle on this. Most of the models agree on
moving this low into southwest lower Michigan by 00Z Saturday and
over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday. The low will then continue north
through the day Saturday. Area radars were showing snow was
lifting north toward Price/Sawyer Counties as of 0930Z. A strong
period of FGEN forcing was partially responsible for the snow and
is forecast to be over parts of northern Wisconsin this morning
before weakening and moving east later this afternoon. In addition
to the forcing from the low pressure system and FGEN, there will
be lake processes as well. North to northeast winds this morning
will back to north to northwest tonight before becoming west to
northwest Saturday afternoon. We did lower the snowfall forecast
and there will likely be a sharp gradient on the west side. Little
snow is expected across Pine/Burnett counties with amounts
increasing to 5 to 9 inches from Price County north to Iron
County. There may be some lake effect snow bringing up to an inch
or so to northern Douglas County today. Gusty northerly winds will
lead to some blowing and drifting as well as the snow piles up.

The snow will diminish from west to east tonight but continue to
be likely over the snowbelt of Ashland/Iron Counties into Saturday
morning. As winds back on Saturday the chance for lake effect snow
will diminish.

Highs today will be in the twenties for most areas then range from
the 20 to 30 on Saturday with the warmest temperatures from the
Brainerd Lakes region to Siren.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main challenges for the long term include periodic snow chances
through the weekend and early next week followed by a potential
storm system Monday night through Wednesday morning.

A few lingering lake effect snow showers may affect northwest
Wisconsin Saturday evening in the wake of the departing winter
storm. A weak shortwave trough will move across northern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin late overnight and Sunday as a broad ridge
of high pressure over the Middle and Lower Mississippi River Valley
prevents any return flow ahead of the clipper. The trough will
be accompanied by a modest plume of Pacific moisture and may squeeze
out a few snow showers. Accumulations should be light, generally
less than an inch. A more subtle trough may follow the clipper
Sunday night with a slight chance of a few flakes in far northern
Minnesota. Temperatures through the remainder of the weekend into
Monday will trend near normal. Overnight lows Saturday night and
Sunday night will be in the single digits to teens above zero.
Daytime highs Sunday will reach the 20s to low 30s.

Attention then shifts to a deeper trough of low pressure digging
into the West Coast Sunday night and Monday. The approach of the
trough will shift the mid-level flow to quasi-zonal for Monday,
allowing a return to much above normal temperatures. South to
southwesterly winds in the low- and mid-levels will bring additional
moisture along with the warmer temperatures. As the trough moves
across the Rockies, look for lee cyclogenesis over southern
Colorado. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions diverge rapidly
by late Monday night and early Tuesday. The surface low is forecast
to track generally eastward across the Western Great Lakes or Upper
Midwest and will likely bring a swath of accumulating snow to the
region. As we observed with the handling of the current system, the
wide spread in solutions leads to low confidence in any particular
outcome. Anyone with travel plans Monday night through Wednesday is
encouraged to keep up with the forecast as new information is
incorporated.

In the wake of the early/midweek system, the mid-level pattern will
shift to a fast northwest flow. The deterministic models each
feature a shortwave trough diving southeast from Alberta and into
the western Great Lakes late Wednesday night and Thursday. That
system may bring another brief period of snow to the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The major winter storm that is affecting much of the Upper Midwest
will continue to move off to the north and east throughout the
period. While much of the region will continue to see VFR
conditions, the KHYR airport is likely to see MVFR or even IFR
CIG`s and VSBY`s develop late tonight or early Friday. Some lower
clouds in the MVFR range may also edge into the KDLH area as well.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  10  25  14 /  20  10   0  30
INL  21   5  22   5 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  26  11  31  18 /  10   0   0  30
HYR  27  12  27  16 /  80  60  10  30
ASX  26  15  28  17 /  70  70  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004-008-
     009.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240558 AAC
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1158 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Will downgrade northern portions of the headlines shortly. Now
that the event is underway and hi-res models are getting a
relatively good handle on the dry air and where the snow shield
will advance, feel confident on tightening the PoP, QPF, and snow
amount gradients. Global model resolution is too coarse to resolve
the ridiculously tight gradient expected which results in bleeding
the snow too far northward. This means locations like Redwood
Falls and the Twin Cities proper may not see a flake. The 00Z NAM
has shifted south slightly again which confirms this idea.

As for the area that will see snow, we are still not seeing
widespread steady snow, and it appears the models are too eager to
break things out this evening, particularly the NAM. However, it
is still expected to become intense tonight near the Iowa border.
Visibilities are 1/4 mile in several locations of northwest Iowa
and thunderstorms are breaking out just south of there so a
maturing snow shield is under development. Expecting this snow
shield to shift mostly east northeastward tonight, then pivot more
northeast Friday. Amounts on the northern periphery of the
Blizzard Warning may be a little high if the HRRR was to verify,
but can`t get too cute.

This southward shift in the past couple days has been a little
surprising to say the least considering the monster totals
advertised on all the models and their ensembles at one point.
Suspect this is due to the very large upper low over Florida which
deamplified the eastern ridge and resulted in a flatter pattern,
sending the low eastward and taking a more southerly track. The
mid level features aren`t as strong and compact either and
are instead more sheared which will prevent the monster totals
(15-18"+) from falling where the heavy band does set up.

The WSW and the rest of the product suite will be issued shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows development of a classic
mid-latitude cyclone over the TX/KS panhandles with an extended
surface front from the center of this system ENE into lower MI and
a trailing cold front over NM/AZ. Aloft, a large longwave trough
which moved onshore the lower CA coast has shifts atop the
central-southern Rockies. The upper trough is expected to deepen
over the central-northern Plains during the day tomorrow through
tomorrow night, helping add plenty of energy to the developing
surface low. The surface low will shift across KS tonight and over
northern MO tomorrow morning, on its way to lower Lake Michigan by
tomorrow evening then Lake Huron by Saturday morning. Deep Pacific
moisture will accompany this system, so much so that QPF amounts
for southern MN look to range 1.00-1.50" by the conclusion of this
system. Though there continues to be good model agreement (outside
of the NAM which has and remains a significant outlier) that SE MN
will be in the crosshairs for the highest snowfall totals, the
consensus track took another slight shift to the SE, thus lowering
the snow amounts and hence the impacts mainly N and W of the Twin
Cities metro. As such, some minor reconfiguring of the headline
products were made but the point must still be made that there
will be a very tight NW-SE gradient of snow amounts just to the
south of the Twin Cities metro. As an example, counties like Le
Sueur or Nicollet or Dakota or Brown could see as much as a 6"
difference in snow totals from NW to SE across each respective
county.

Snow has commenced in far SW MN this afternoon and snow will
gradually spread mainly E and slightly N as the overnight
progresses. There may even be a slight mixture with rain at the
immediate onset but any mixture of precipitation will have a short
duration before become all snow. As the surface low shifts ENE
and the upper level trough pivots to help enhance the surface
feature, snow coverage and intensity will increase during the
early morning hours, likely with rates increasing to 1-2"/hr for
several hours in far southern MN and into SW WI. The morning
commute for southern/eastern MN into western WI will likely have
ongoing snow then the snowfall will steadily diminish as the day
progresses. However, strong winds for much of the region will
contribute to the blowing snow issues, making for hazardous
travel conditions for much of southern MN. Another concern is
isolated thunderstorms could develop over far southern MN into
southwestern WI. Instability levels are not entirely zero given
the antecedent moisture levels plus the incoming surge and that
additional lift will be created by the pivoting upper level
trough. Confidence not high enough to include mention at this
point but some thunder cannot be ruled out.

Precipitation will end from west to east late tomorrow afternoon
through tomorrow night and the wind speeds will decrease as well,
resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies for the start of the
weekend. As for temperatures, once temperatures drop below
freezing later this evening, they will remain below freezing
throughout the duration of this event. Lows tonight to highs
tomorrow will have a very small diurnal range, potentially 5
degrees or less from tonight through tomorrow. As colder air wraps
around this system as it departs, lows will drop into the teens
tomorrow night, temperatures this area has not seen in some time
but will be actually right on par with climatological norms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Temperatures will warm through early next week. A fairly large
storm will develop over the Upper Midwest, but thermal profiles
should be warm enough to have mostly rain, especially if the
system translates westward with time.

A weak clipper system will sweep through the region on Sunday and
could bring some snow across MN/WI. On Monday the southern stream
will develop a storm to the southeast over the Ohio river valley.

This will be followed by a third system Tuesday into Wednesday.
This mid-week storm will have a favorable temperature gradient
to work with and should develop strong cyclone. However, there is
a lot of warm air with this storm, so the primary p-type will be
rain, with perhaps some snow mixed in. There is still uncertainty
with this storm, but as of now it appears that the chance is quite
low for this system to develop into a winter storm for the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The snow now appears to likely remain south of KMSP, KRNH, and
KRWF. However, some MVFR cigs are likely at times tonight and
Friday. KEAU will be under IFR or lower snow for the next 18 hours
or so with several inches expected. Thunderstorms will be
confined to far southern Minnesota. No concerns for KSTC or KAXN.

KMSP...The snow should remain south/southeast of the terminal by
10 to 20 miles. Main concern is the gusty north northeast winds
and occasional MVFR cigs for the next 18 hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for WIZ015-023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ016-024>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for MNZ063-069-070.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Friday for MNZ067-073.

     Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ074>078-082>085-
     091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 240544
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1144 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Our major winter storm is still expected to affect the area tonight
through early Saturday.  Models have pulled a bit of a right turn on
us with the storm track in the last 24 hours, shifting the storm
track farther southeast.  Yesterday, the 18z Friday surface low
position was over southeast Iowa, that is now over north central
Illinois with the latest runs.  The low track now goes from the
Kansas City area at  midnight tonight east to north central Illinois
at noon Friday, to northeast of Green Bay by midnight Friday night.
The models are relatively close together on the storm track, and so
I have better confidence in the forecast, but it could still shift
some more depending on the convection that develops over Iowa
tonight. This has caused the heavy snow band to shift farther
southeast from previous forecasts, so have once again reduced
snowfall totals over the forecast area.  The heavy snow band is now
only catching my southeastern 3-4 counties, with lake effects
boosting snowfall amounts along the south shore snow belt areas of
Ashland and Iron counties.  Have decided to issue a winter storm
warning for Ashland, Iron, Price and Sawyer counties based on this
snowfall. Farther west the snowfall amounts taper off sharply, so
the Twin Ports are only looking at a dusting of snow, if anything.
Have only gone with an advisory for Bayfield and Washburn counties,
as they`re looking at only 2 to 5 inches of snow. Wind conditions
are expected to get fairly breezy over northwest Wisconsin as well,
which could produce some drifting and even blowing of snow.  Have
included blowing snow in the forecast where this is most likely.
Snow wraps up pretty quickly Saturday morning, with only lake
effects lingering into the daytime, so have set the headlines to
expire at 6 am.  Some of those could be cancelled earlier, but for
simplicity have kept them all at the same begin and end time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A return to cooler and somewhat seasonable temperatures late this
weekend into early next week in the wake of a winter storm exiting
the Midwest and colder northwest flow returning to the Northland.
This northwest flow pattern will result in numerous weak clippers
into the beginning of next week bringing some areas of light snow
but nothing more than an inch or so. Highs in the mid 20s (Sun) to
mid 30s (Mon) with lows falling to the single digits both Saturday
and Sunday night.

Early to mid week the pattern changes with a deepening longwave
trough at mid to upper levels over the Pacific Northwest,
translating eastward towards the northern High Plains Tuesday. In
response to the mid-level wave, a surface low will develop somewhere
across the Great Plains and lift northeast towards the upper Great
Lakes. This storm may bring light to moderate snowfall amounts to
parts of the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday depending on the storm
track. While it`s tough to provide much detail this far out, this
type of a storm track is more favorable for snowfall across more of
northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin compared to the Friday
storm tomorrow because this Tues-Wed storm will have a farther north
storm track. However, despite some colder temperatures to start off
the week, southerly flow ahead of the deepening low could result in
surface temperatures above freezing, leading to a mix of rain and
snow. Winds and colder temperatures aloft could lead to a period of
heavy snow somewhere near Lake Superior due to lake effect, but
depending on the storm track this could be focused on the north
shore such as at the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead or across the
south shore such as along the Bayfield Peninsula. Or as the 00z
ECMWF depicted, lake effect snow for almost all areas inland of
western Lake Superior as the low lifts out to the northeast. In
summary: Rain/snow likely Tues-Wed, light to moderate snowfall
amounts expected, with some locally higher amounts due to lake
effect impacts.

Late-week a clipper drops down in the northwest flow to bring a
chance for light snow to the region, possibly followed by repeat
clipper into the weekend.

Generally highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s through the work week with
lows in the teens to mid 20s - possibly some single digit lows north
of the Iron Range towards late-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The major winter storm that is affecting much of the Upper Midwest
will continue to move off to the north and east throughout the
period. While much of the region will continue to see VFR
conditions, the KHYR airport is likely to see MVFR or even IFR
CIG`s and VSBY`s develop late tonight or early Friday. Some lower
clouds in the MVFR range may also edge into the KDLH area as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  23  10  26 /  10  30  20  10
INL   9  21   5  23 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  17  26  11  30 /   0  10   0  10
HYR  23  27  12  28 /  40  90  80  10
ASX  23  27  15  28 /  30  90  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004-008-
     009.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 240544
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1144 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Our major winter storm is still expected to affect the area tonight
through early Saturday.  Models have pulled a bit of a right turn on
us with the storm track in the last 24 hours, shifting the storm
track farther southeast.  Yesterday, the 18z Friday surface low
position was over southeast Iowa, that is now over north central
Illinois with the latest runs.  The low track now goes from the
Kansas City area at  midnight tonight east to north central Illinois
at noon Friday, to northeast of Green Bay by midnight Friday night.
The models are relatively close together on the storm track, and so
I have better confidence in the forecast, but it could still shift
some more depending on the convection that develops over Iowa
tonight. This has caused the heavy snow band to shift farther
southeast from previous forecasts, so have once again reduced
snowfall totals over the forecast area.  The heavy snow band is now
only catching my southeastern 3-4 counties, with lake effects
boosting snowfall amounts along the south shore snow belt areas of
Ashland and Iron counties.  Have decided to issue a winter storm
warning for Ashland, Iron, Price and Sawyer counties based on this
snowfall. Farther west the snowfall amounts taper off sharply, so
the Twin Ports are only looking at a dusting of snow, if anything.
Have only gone with an advisory for Bayfield and Washburn counties,
as they`re looking at only 2 to 5 inches of snow. Wind conditions
are expected to get fairly breezy over northwest Wisconsin as well,
which could produce some drifting and even blowing of snow.  Have
included blowing snow in the forecast where this is most likely.
Snow wraps up pretty quickly Saturday morning, with only lake
effects lingering into the daytime, so have set the headlines to
expire at 6 am.  Some of those could be cancelled earlier, but for
simplicity have kept them all at the same begin and end time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A return to cooler and somewhat seasonable temperatures late this
weekend into early next week in the wake of a winter storm exiting
the Midwest and colder northwest flow returning to the Northland.
This northwest flow pattern will result in numerous weak clippers
into the beginning of next week bringing some areas of light snow
but nothing more than an inch or so. Highs in the mid 20s (Sun) to
mid 30s (Mon) with lows falling to the single digits both Saturday
and Sunday night.

Early to mid week the pattern changes with a deepening longwave
trough at mid to upper levels over the Pacific Northwest,
translating eastward towards the northern High Plains Tuesday. In
response to the mid-level wave, a surface low will develop somewhere
across the Great Plains and lift northeast towards the upper Great
Lakes. This storm may bring light to moderate snowfall amounts to
parts of the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday depending on the storm
track. While it`s tough to provide much detail this far out, this
type of a storm track is more favorable for snowfall across more of
northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin compared to the Friday
storm tomorrow because this Tues-Wed storm will have a farther north
storm track. However, despite some colder temperatures to start off
the week, southerly flow ahead of the deepening low could result in
surface temperatures above freezing, leading to a mix of rain and
snow. Winds and colder temperatures aloft could lead to a period of
heavy snow somewhere near Lake Superior due to lake effect, but
depending on the storm track this could be focused on the north
shore such as at the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead or across the
south shore such as along the Bayfield Peninsula. Or as the 00z
ECMWF depicted, lake effect snow for almost all areas inland of
western Lake Superior as the low lifts out to the northeast. In
summary: Rain/snow likely Tues-Wed, light to moderate snowfall
amounts expected, with some locally higher amounts due to lake
effect impacts.

Late-week a clipper drops down in the northwest flow to bring a
chance for light snow to the region, possibly followed by repeat
clipper into the weekend.

Generally highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s through the work week with
lows in the teens to mid 20s - possibly some single digit lows north
of the Iron Range towards late-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The major winter storm that is affecting much of the Upper Midwest
will continue to move off to the north and east throughout the
period. While much of the region will continue to see VFR
conditions, the KHYR airport is likely to see MVFR or even IFR
CIG`s and VSBY`s develop late tonight or early Friday. Some lower
clouds in the MVFR range may also edge into the KDLH area as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  23  10  26 /  10  30  20  10
INL   9  21   5  23 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  17  26  11  30 /   0  10   0  10
HYR  23  27  12  28 /  40  90  80  10
ASX  23  27  15  28 /  30  90  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004-008-
     009.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240216 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
816 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Will downgrade northern portions of the headlines shortly. Now
that the event is underway and hi-res models are getting a
relatively good handle on the dry air and where the snow shield
will advance, feel confident on tightening the PoP, QPF, and snow
amount gradients. Global model resolution is too coarse to resolve
the ridiculously tight gradient expected which results in bleeding
the snow too far northward. This means locations like Redwood
Falls and the Twin Cities proper may not see a flake. The 00Z NAM
has shifted south slightly again which confirms this idea.

As for the area that will see snow, we are still not seeing
widespread steady snow, and it appears the models are too eager to
break things out this evening, particularly the NAM. However, it
is still expected to become intense tonight near the Iowa border.
Visibilities are 1/4 mile in several locations of northwest Iowa
and thunderstorms are breaking out just south of there so a
maturing snow shield is under development. Expecting this snow
shield to shift mostly east northeastward tonight, then pivot more
northeast Friday. Amounts on the northern periphery of the
Blizzard Warning may be a little high if the HRRR was to verify,
but can`t get too cute.

This southward shift in the past couple days has been a little
surprising to say the least considering the monster totals
advertised on all the models and their ensembles at one point.
Suspect this is due to the very large upper low over Florida which
deamplified the eastern ridge and resulted in a flatter pattern,
sending the low eastward and taking a more southerly track. The
mid level features aren`t as strong and compact either and
are instead more sheared which will prevent the monster totals
(15-18"+) from falling where the heavy band does set up.

The WSW and the rest of the product suite will be issued shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows development of a classic
mid-latitude cyclone over the TX/KS panhandles with an extended
surface front from the center of this system ENE into lower MI and
a trailing cold front over NM/AZ. Aloft, a large longwave trough
which moved onshore the lower CA coast has shifts atop the
central-southern Rockies. The upper trough is expected to deepen
over the central-northern Plains during the day tomorrow through
tomorrow night, helping add plenty of energy to the developing
surface low. The surface low will shift across KS tonight and over
northern MO tomorrow morning, on its way to lower Lake Michigan by
tomorrow evening then Lake Huron by Saturday morning. Deep Pacific
moisture will accompany this system, so much so that QPF amounts
for southern MN look to range 1.00-1.50" by the conclusion of this
system. Though there continues to be good model agreement (outside
of the NAM which has and remains a significant outlier) that SE MN
will be in the crosshairs for the highest snowfall totals, the
consensus track took another slight shift to the SE, thus lowering
the snow amounts and hence the impacts mainly N and W of the Twin
Cities metro. As such, some minor reconfiguring of the headline
products were made but the point must still be made that there
will be a very tight NW-SE gradient of snow amounts just to the
south of the Twin Cities metro. As an example, counties like Le
Sueur or Nicollet or Dakota or Brown could see as much as a 6"
difference in snow totals from NW to SE across each respective
county.

Snow has commenced in far SW MN this afternoon and snow will
gradually spread mainly E and slightly N as the overnight
progresses. There may even be a slight mixture with rain at the
immediate onset but any mixture of precipitation will have a short
duration before become all snow. As the surface low shifts ENE
and the upper level trough pivots to help enhance the surface
feature, snow coverage and intensity will increase during the
early morning hours, likely with rates increasing to 1-2"/hr for
several hours in far southern MN and into SW WI. The morning
commute for southern/eastern MN into western WI will likely have
ongoing snow then the snowfall will steadily diminish as the day
progresses. However, strong winds for much of the region will
contribute to the blowing snow issues, making for hazardous
travel conditions for much of southern MN. Another concern is
isolated thunderstorms could develop over far southern MN into
southwestern WI. Instability levels are not entirely zero given
the antecedent moisture levels plus the incoming surge and that
additional lift will be created by the pivoting upper level
trough. Confidence not high enough to include mention at this
point but some thunder cannot be ruled out.

Precipitation will end from west to east late tomorrow afternoon
through tomorrow night and the wind speeds will decrease as well,
resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies for the start of the
weekend. As for temperatures, once temperatures drop below
freezing later this evening, they will remain below freezing
throughout the duration of this event. Lows tonight to highs
tomorrow will have a very small diurnal range, potentially 5
degrees or less from tonight through tomorrow. As colder air wraps
around this system as it departs, lows will drop into the teens
tomorrow night, temperatures this area has not seen in some time
but will be actually right on par with climatological norms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Temperatures will warm through early next week. A fairly large
storm will develop over the Upper Midwest, but thermal profiles
should be warm enough to have mostly rain, especially if the
system translates westward with time.

A weak clipper system will sweep through the region on Sunday and
could bring some snow across MN/WI. On Monday the southern stream
will develop a storm to the southeast over the Ohio river valley.

This will be followed by a third system Tuesday into Wednesday.
This mid-week storm will have a favorable temperature gradient
to work with and should develop strong cyclone. However, there is
a lot of warm air with this storm, so the primary p-type will be
rain, with perhaps some snow mixed in. There is still uncertainty
with this storm, but as of now it appears that the chance is quite
low for this system to develop into a winter storm for the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

There have been rather significant changes to the 00Z set of
TAFs. Per a plethora of latest guidance, the northern edge of the
snow will be very sharp and may miss KRWF, KMSP, and KRNH
entirely. Unfortunately each of these locations is on the edge and
it can shift either way so wasn`t confident in completely
removing the snow but it is possible that will need to be done in
the next several hours. Outside of the snow, VFR conditions will
prevail through the period.

KMSP...As discussed above, KMSP will be on the northern fringe of
the snow later tonight and Friday. Depending where it does set up,
further adjustments to the TAF may be necessary.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for WIZ015-023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ016-024>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for MNZ063-069-070.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Friday for MNZ067-073.

     Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ074>078-082>085-
     091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 232353
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
553 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Our major winter storm is still expected to affect the area tonight
through early Saturday.  Models have pulled a bit of a right turn on
us with the storm track in the last 24 hours, shifting the storm
track farther southeast.  Yesterday, the 18z Friday surface low
position was over southeast Iowa, that is now over north central
Illinois with the latest runs.  The low track now goes from the
Kansas City area at  midnight tonight east to north central Illinois
at noon Friday, to northeast of Green Bay by midnight Friday night.
The models are relatively close together on the storm track, and so
I have better confidence in the forecast, but it could still shift
some more depending on the convection that develops over Iowa
tonight. This has caused the heavy snow band to shift farther
southeast from previous forecasts, so have once again reduced
snowfall totals over the forecast area.  The heavy snow band is now
only catching my southeastern 3-4 counties, with lake effects
boosting snowfall amounts along the south shore snow belt areas of
Ashland and Iron counties.  Have decided to issue a winter storm
warning for Ashland, Iron, Price and Sawyer counties based on this
snowfall. Farther west the snowfall amounts taper off sharply, so
the Twin Ports are only looking at a dusting of snow, if anything.
Have only gone with an advisory for Bayfield and Washburn counties,
as they`re looking at only 2 to 5 inches of snow. Wind conditions
are expected to get fairly breezy over northwest Wisconsin as well,
which could produce some drifting and even blowing of snow.  Have
included blowing snow in the forecast where this is most likely.
Snow wraps up pretty quickly Saturday morning, with only lake
effects lingering into the daytime, so have set the headlines to
expire at 6 am.  Some of those could be cancelled earlier, but for
simplicity have kept them all at the same begin and end time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A return to cooler and somewhat seasonable temperatures late this
weekend into early next week in the wake of a winter storm exiting
the Midwest and colder northwest flow returning to the Northland.
This northwest flow pattern will result in numerous weak clippers
into the beginning of next week bringing some areas of light snow
but nothing more than an inch or so. Highs in the mid 20s (Sun) to
mid 30s (Mon) with lows falling to the single digits both Saturday
and Sunday night.

Early to mid week the pattern changes with a deepening longwave
trough at mid to upper levels over the Pacific Northwest,
translating eastward towards the northern High Plains Tuesday. In
response to the mid-level wave, a surface low will develop somewhere
across the Great Plains and lift northeast towards the upper Great
Lakes. This storm may bring light to moderate snowfall amounts to
parts of the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday depending on the storm
track. While it`s tough to provide much detail this far out, this
type of a storm track is more favorable for snowfall across more of
northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin compared to the Friday
storm tomorrow because this Tues-Wed storm will have a farther north
storm track. However, despite some colder temperatures to start off
the week, southerly flow ahead of the deepening low could result in
surface temperatures above freezing, leading to a mix of rain and
snow. Winds and colder temperatures aloft could lead to a period of
heavy snow somewhere near Lake Superior due to lake effect, but
depending on the storm track this could be focused on the north
shore such as at the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead or across the
south shore such as along the Bayfield Peninsula. Or as the 00z
ECMWF depicted, lake effect snow for almost all areas inland of
western Lake Superior as the low lifts out to the northeast. In
summary: Rain/snow likely Tues-Wed, light to moderate snowfall
amounts expected, with some locally higher amounts due to lake
effect impacts.

Late-week a clipper drops down in the northwest flow to bring a
chance for light snow to the region, possibly followed by repeat
clipper into the weekend.

Generally highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s through the work week with
lows in the teens to mid 20s - possibly some single digit lows north
of the Iron Range towards late-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A major storm system will move well south of the Northland TAF
sites overnight and into Friday. Some lingering MVFR CIG`s will be
found across the area overnight and into Friday, but there should
be a fair amount of VFR conditions as well. The only snow is
expected to occur in the KHYR area, and we should see some MVFR
VSBY`s there as well later tonight and into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  23  10  26 /  10  30  20  10
INL   9  21   5  23 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  19  26  11  30 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  23  27  12  28 /  50  90  80  10
ASX  23  27  15  28 /  40  90  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for WIZ003-004-008-009.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232353 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
553 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows development of a classic
mid-latitude cyclone over the TX/KS panhandles with an extended
surface front from the center of this system ENE into lower MI and
a trailing cold front over NM/AZ. Aloft, a large longwave trough
which moved onshore the lower CA coast has shifts atop the
central-southern Rockies. The upper trough is expected to deepen
over the central-northern Plains during the day tomorrow through
tomorrow night, helping add plenty of energy to the developing
surface low. The surface low will shift across KS tonight and over
northern MO tomorrow morning, on its way to lower Lake Michigan by
tomorrow evening then Lake Huron by Saturday morning. Deep Pacific
moisture will accompany this system, so much so that QPF amounts
for southern MN look to range 1.00-1.50" by the conclusion of this
system. Though there continues to be good model agreement (outside
of the NAM which has and remains a significant outlier) that SE MN
will be in the crosshairs for the highest snowfall totals, the
consensus track took another slight shift to the SE, thus lowering
the snow amounts and hence the impacts mainly N and W of the Twin
Cities metro. As such, some minor reconfiguring of the headline
products were made but the point must still be made that there
will be a very tight NW-SE gradient of snow amounts just to the
south of the Twin Cities metro. As an example, counties like Le
Sueur or Nicollet or Dakota or Brown could see as much as a 6"
difference in snow totals from NW to SE across each respective
county.

Snow has commenced in far SW MN this afternoon and snow will
gradually spread mainly E and slightly N as the overnight
progresses. There may even be a slight mixture with rain at the
immediate onset but any mixture of precipitation will have a short
duration before become all snow. As the surface low shifts ENE
and the upper level trough pivots to help enhance the surface
feature, snow coverage and intensity will increase during the
early morning hours, likely with rates increasing to 1-2"/hr for
several hours in far southern MN and into SW WI. The morning
commute for southern/eastern MN into western WI will likely have
ongoing snow then the snowfall will steadily diminish as the day
progresses. However, strong winds for much of the region will
contribute to the blowing snow issues, making for hazardous
travel conditions for much of southern MN. Another concern is
isolated thunderstorms could develop over far southern MN into
southwestern WI. Instability levels are not entirely zero given
the antecedent moisture levels plus the incoming surge and that
additional lift will be created by the pivoting upper level
trough. Confidence not high enough to include mention at this
point but some thunder cannot be ruled out.

Precipitation will end from west to east late tomorrow afternoon
through tomorrow night and the wind speeds will decrease as well,
resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies for the start of the
weekend. As for temperatures, once temperatures drop below
freezing later this evening, they will remain below freezing
throughout the duration of this event. Lows tonight to highs
tomorrow will have a very small diurnal range, potentially 5
degrees or less from tonight through tomorrow. As colder air wraps
around this system as it departs, lows will drop into the teens
tomorrow night, temperatures this area has not seen in some time
but will be actually right on par with climatological norms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Temperatures will warm through early next week. A fairly large
storm will develop over the Upper Midwest, but thermal profiles
should be warm enough to have mostly rain, especially if the
system translates westward with time.

A weak clipper system will sweep through the region on Sunday and
could bring some snow across MN/WI. On Monday the southern stream
will develop a storm to the southeast over the Ohio river valley.

This will be followed by a third system Tuesday into Wednesday.
This mid-week storm will have a favorable temperature gradient
to work with and should develop strong cyclone. However, there is
a lot of warm air with this storm, so the primary p-type will be
rain, with perhaps some snow mixed in. There is still uncertainty
with this storm, but as of now it appears that the chance is quite
low for this system to develop into a winter storm for the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

There have been rather significant changes to the 00Z set of
TAFs. Per a plethora of latest guidance, the northern edge of the
snow will be very sharp and may miss KRWF, KMSP, and KRNH
entirely. Unfortunately each of these locations is on the edge and
it can shift either way so wasn`t confident in completely
removing the snow but it is possible that will need to be done in
the next several hours. Outside of the snow, VFR conditions will
prevail through the period.

KMSP...As discussed above, KMSP will be on the northern fringe of
the snow later tonight and Friday. Depending where it does set up,
further adjustments to the TAF may be necessary.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for WIZ015-016-023>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for WIZ014.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for MNZ063-069-070.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for MNZ060-062-065>068-073.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday for
     MNZ074>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 232353
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
553 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Our major winter storm is still expected to affect the area tonight
through early Saturday.  Models have pulled a bit of a right turn on
us with the storm track in the last 24 hours, shifting the storm
track farther southeast.  Yesterday, the 18z Friday surface low
position was over southeast Iowa, that is now over north central
Illinois with the latest runs.  The low track now goes from the
Kansas City area at  midnight tonight east to north central Illinois
at noon Friday, to northeast of Green Bay by midnight Friday night.
The models are relatively close together on the storm track, and so
I have better confidence in the forecast, but it could still shift
some more depending on the convection that develops over Iowa
tonight. This has caused the heavy snow band to shift farther
southeast from previous forecasts, so have once again reduced
snowfall totals over the forecast area.  The heavy snow band is now
only catching my southeastern 3-4 counties, with lake effects
boosting snowfall amounts along the south shore snow belt areas of
Ashland and Iron counties.  Have decided to issue a winter storm
warning for Ashland, Iron, Price and Sawyer counties based on this
snowfall. Farther west the snowfall amounts taper off sharply, so
the Twin Ports are only looking at a dusting of snow, if anything.
Have only gone with an advisory for Bayfield and Washburn counties,
as they`re looking at only 2 to 5 inches of snow. Wind conditions
are expected to get fairly breezy over northwest Wisconsin as well,
which could produce some drifting and even blowing of snow.  Have
included blowing snow in the forecast where this is most likely.
Snow wraps up pretty quickly Saturday morning, with only lake
effects lingering into the daytime, so have set the headlines to
expire at 6 am.  Some of those could be cancelled earlier, but for
simplicity have kept them all at the same begin and end time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A return to cooler and somewhat seasonable temperatures late this
weekend into early next week in the wake of a winter storm exiting
the Midwest and colder northwest flow returning to the Northland.
This northwest flow pattern will result in numerous weak clippers
into the beginning of next week bringing some areas of light snow
but nothing more than an inch or so. Highs in the mid 20s (Sun) to
mid 30s (Mon) with lows falling to the single digits both Saturday
and Sunday night.

Early to mid week the pattern changes with a deepening longwave
trough at mid to upper levels over the Pacific Northwest,
translating eastward towards the northern High Plains Tuesday. In
response to the mid-level wave, a surface low will develop somewhere
across the Great Plains and lift northeast towards the upper Great
Lakes. This storm may bring light to moderate snowfall amounts to
parts of the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday depending on the storm
track. While it`s tough to provide much detail this far out, this
type of a storm track is more favorable for snowfall across more of
northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin compared to the Friday
storm tomorrow because this Tues-Wed storm will have a farther north
storm track. However, despite some colder temperatures to start off
the week, southerly flow ahead of the deepening low could result in
surface temperatures above freezing, leading to a mix of rain and
snow. Winds and colder temperatures aloft could lead to a period of
heavy snow somewhere near Lake Superior due to lake effect, but
depending on the storm track this could be focused on the north
shore such as at the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead or across the
south shore such as along the Bayfield Peninsula. Or as the 00z
ECMWF depicted, lake effect snow for almost all areas inland of
western Lake Superior as the low lifts out to the northeast. In
summary: Rain/snow likely Tues-Wed, light to moderate snowfall
amounts expected, with some locally higher amounts due to lake
effect impacts.

Late-week a clipper drops down in the northwest flow to bring a
chance for light snow to the region, possibly followed by repeat
clipper into the weekend.

Generally highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s through the work week with
lows in the teens to mid 20s - possibly some single digit lows north
of the Iron Range towards late-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A major storm system will move well south of the Northland TAF
sites overnight and into Friday. Some lingering MVFR CIG`s will be
found across the area overnight and into Friday, but there should
be a fair amount of VFR conditions as well. The only snow is
expected to occur in the KHYR area, and we should see some MVFR
VSBY`s there as well later tonight and into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  23  10  26 /  10  30  20  10
INL   9  21   5  23 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  19  26  11  30 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  23  27  12  28 /  50  90  80  10
ASX  23  27  15  28 /  40  90  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for WIZ003-004-008-009.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232353 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
553 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows development of a classic
mid-latitude cyclone over the TX/KS panhandles with an extended
surface front from the center of this system ENE into lower MI and
a trailing cold front over NM/AZ. Aloft, a large longwave trough
which moved onshore the lower CA coast has shifts atop the
central-southern Rockies. The upper trough is expected to deepen
over the central-northern Plains during the day tomorrow through
tomorrow night, helping add plenty of energy to the developing
surface low. The surface low will shift across KS tonight and over
northern MO tomorrow morning, on its way to lower Lake Michigan by
tomorrow evening then Lake Huron by Saturday morning. Deep Pacific
moisture will accompany this system, so much so that QPF amounts
for southern MN look to range 1.00-1.50" by the conclusion of this
system. Though there continues to be good model agreement (outside
of the NAM which has and remains a significant outlier) that SE MN
will be in the crosshairs for the highest snowfall totals, the
consensus track took another slight shift to the SE, thus lowering
the snow amounts and hence the impacts mainly N and W of the Twin
Cities metro. As such, some minor reconfiguring of the headline
products were made but the point must still be made that there
will be a very tight NW-SE gradient of snow amounts just to the
south of the Twin Cities metro. As an example, counties like Le
Sueur or Nicollet or Dakota or Brown could see as much as a 6"
difference in snow totals from NW to SE across each respective
county.

Snow has commenced in far SW MN this afternoon and snow will
gradually spread mainly E and slightly N as the overnight
progresses. There may even be a slight mixture with rain at the
immediate onset but any mixture of precipitation will have a short
duration before become all snow. As the surface low shifts ENE
and the upper level trough pivots to help enhance the surface
feature, snow coverage and intensity will increase during the
early morning hours, likely with rates increasing to 1-2"/hr for
several hours in far southern MN and into SW WI. The morning
commute for southern/eastern MN into western WI will likely have
ongoing snow then the snowfall will steadily diminish as the day
progresses. However, strong winds for much of the region will
contribute to the blowing snow issues, making for hazardous
travel conditions for much of southern MN. Another concern is
isolated thunderstorms could develop over far southern MN into
southwestern WI. Instability levels are not entirely zero given
the antecedent moisture levels plus the incoming surge and that
additional lift will be created by the pivoting upper level
trough. Confidence not high enough to include mention at this
point but some thunder cannot be ruled out.

Precipitation will end from west to east late tomorrow afternoon
through tomorrow night and the wind speeds will decrease as well,
resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies for the start of the
weekend. As for temperatures, once temperatures drop below
freezing later this evening, they will remain below freezing
throughout the duration of this event. Lows tonight to highs
tomorrow will have a very small diurnal range, potentially 5
degrees or less from tonight through tomorrow. As colder air wraps
around this system as it departs, lows will drop into the teens
tomorrow night, temperatures this area has not seen in some time
but will be actually right on par with climatological norms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Temperatures will warm through early next week. A fairly large
storm will develop over the Upper Midwest, but thermal profiles
should be warm enough to have mostly rain, especially if the
system translates westward with time.

A weak clipper system will sweep through the region on Sunday and
could bring some snow across MN/WI. On Monday the southern stream
will develop a storm to the southeast over the Ohio river valley.

This will be followed by a third system Tuesday into Wednesday.
This mid-week storm will have a favorable temperature gradient
to work with and should develop strong cyclone. However, there is
a lot of warm air with this storm, so the primary p-type will be
rain, with perhaps some snow mixed in. There is still uncertainty
with this storm, but as of now it appears that the chance is quite
low for this system to develop into a winter storm for the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

There have been rather significant changes to the 00Z set of
TAFs. Per a plethora of latest guidance, the northern edge of the
snow will be very sharp and may miss KRWF, KMSP, and KRNH
entirely. Unfortunately each of these locations is on the edge and
it can shift either way so wasn`t confident in completely
removing the snow but it is possible that will need to be done in
the next several hours. Outside of the snow, VFR conditions will
prevail through the period.

KMSP...As discussed above, KMSP will be on the northern fringe of
the snow later tonight and Friday. Depending where it does set up,
further adjustments to the TAF may be necessary.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for WIZ015-016-023>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for WIZ014.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for MNZ063-069-070.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for MNZ060-062-065>068-073.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday for
     MNZ074>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 232212
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
412 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Our major winter storm is still expected to affect the area tonight
through early Saturday.  Models have pulled a bit of a right turn on
us with the storm track in the last 24 hours, shifting the storm
track farther southeast.  Yesterday, the 18z Friday surface low
position was over southeast Iowa, that is now over north central
Illinois with the latest runs.  The low track now goes from the
Kansas City area at  midnight tonight east to north central Illinois
at noon Friday, to northeast of Green Bay by midnight Friday night.
The models are relatively close together on the storm track, and so
I have better confidence in the forecast, but it could still shift
some more depending on the convection that develops over Iowa
tonight. This has caused the heavy snow band to shift farther
southeast from previous forecasts, so have once again reduced
snowfall totals over the forecast area.  The heavy snow band is now
only catching my southeastern 3-4 counties, with lake effects
boosting snowfall amounts along the south shore snow belt areas of
Ashland and Iron counties.  Have decided to issue a winter storm
warning for Ashland, Iron, Price and Sawyer counties based on this
snowfall. Farther west the snowfall amounts taper off sharply, so
the Twin Ports are only looking at a dusting of snow, if anything.
Have only gone with an advisory for Bayfield and Washburn counties,
as they`re looking at only 2 to 5 inches of snow. Wind conditions
are expected to get fairly breezy over northwest Wisconsin as well,
which could produce some drifting and even blowing of snow.  Have
included blowing snow in the forecast where this is most likely.
Snow wraps up pretty quickly Saturday morning, with only lake
effects lingering into the daytime, so have set the headlines to
expire at 6 am.  Some of those could be cancelled earlier, but for
simplicity have kept them all at the same begin and end time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 411 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A return to cooler and somewhat seasonable temperatures late this
weekend into early next week in the wake of a winter storm exiting
the Midwest and colder northwest flow returning to the Northland.
This northwest flow pattern will result in numerous weak clippers
into the beginning of next week bringing some areas of light snow
but nothing more than an inch or so. Highs in the mid 20s (Sun) to
mid 30s (Mon) with lows falling to the single digits both Saturday
and Sunday night.

Early to mid week the pattern changes with a deepening longwave
trough at mid to upper levels over the Pacific Northwest,
translating eastward towards the northern High Plains Tuesday. In
response to the mid-level wave, a surface low will develop somewhere
across the Great Plains and lift northeast towards the upper Great
Lakes. This storm may bring light to moderate snowfall amounts to
parts of the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday depending on the storm
track. While it`s tough to provide much detail this far out, this
type of a storm track is more favorable for snowfall across more of
northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin compared to the Friday
storm tomorrow because this Tues-Wed storm will have a farther north
storm track. However, despite some colder temperatures to start off
the week, southerly flow ahead of the deepening low could result in
surface temperatures above freezing, leading to a mix of rain and
snow. Winds and colder temperatures aloft could lead to a period of
heavy snow somewhere near Lake Superior due to lake effect, but
depending on the storm track this could be focused on the north
shore such as at the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead or across the
south shore such as along the Bayfield Peninsula. Or as the 00z
ECMWF depicted, lake effect snow for almost all areas inland of
western Lake Superior as the low lifts out to the northeast. In
summary: Rain/snow likely Tues-Wed, light to moderate snowfall
amounts expected, with some locally higher amounts due to lake
effect impacts.

Late-week a clipper drops down in the northwest flow to bring a
chance for light snow to the region, possibly followed by repeat
clipper into the weekend.

Generally highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s through the work week with
lows in the teens to mid 20s - possibly some single digit lows north
of the Iron Range towards late-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Conditions will improve to VFR at most sites for a period this
afternoon as the low level stratus deck dissipates and high-level
clouds increase from south to north. Winds will increase from the
north through the night into Friday morning as a low pressure
system approaches from the south. MVFR ceilings will develop DLH
and HIB as the low approaches towards Friday morning, with a
lesser chance at BRD and unlikely (but plausible) as far north as
INL. At HYR conditions may briefly improve to VFR late tonight,
but otherwise at least MVFR stratus deck will stick through
tomorrow morning. Snow will begin and ceilings will lower late
Friday morning, though at this point there still remains some
uncertainty as to how bad conditions will get at HYR during the
day Friday. At least MVFR to IFR stratus will persist through the
day, and if heavy snow develops IFR to LIFR conditions are
possible.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  23  10  26 /  10  30  20  10
INL   9  21   5  23 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  19  26  11  30 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  23  27  12  28 /  50  90  80  10
ASX  23  27  15  28 /  40  90  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for WIZ003-004-008-009.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for WIZ002-007.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232206
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
406 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows development of a classic
mid-latitude cyclone over the TX/KS panhandles with an extended
surface front from the center of this system ENE into lower MI and
a trailing cold front over NM/AZ. Aloft, a large longwave trough
which moved onshore the lower CA coast has shifts atop the
central-southern Rockies. The upper trough is expected to deepen
over the central-northern Plains during the day tomorrow through
tomorrow night, helping add plenty of energy to the developing
surface low. The surface low will shift across KS tonight and over
northern MO tomorrow morning, on its way to lower Lake Michigan by
tomorrow evening then Lake Huron by Saturday morning. Deep Pacific
moisture will accompany this system, so much so that QPF amounts
for southern MN look to range 1.00-1.50" by the conclusion of this
system. Though there continues to be good model agreement (outside
of the NAM which has and remains a significant outlier) that SE MN
will be in the crosshairs for the highest snowfall totals, the
consensus track took another slight shift to the SE, thus lowering
the snow amounts and hence the impacts mainly N and W of the Twin
Cities metro. As such, some minor reconfiguring of the headline
products were made but the point must still be made that there
will be a very tight NW-SE gradient of snow amounts just to the
south of the Twin Cities metro. As an example, counties like Le
Sueur or Nicollet or Dakota or Brown could see as much as a 6"
difference in snow totals from NW to SE across each respective
county.

Snow has commenced in far SW MN this afternoon and snow will
gradually spread mainly E and slightly N as the overnight
progresses. There may even be a slight mixture with rain at the
immediate onset but any mixture of precipitation will have a short
duration before become all snow. As the surface low shifts ENE
and the upper level trough pivots to help enhance the surface
feature, snow coverage and intensity will increase during the
early morning hours, likely with rates increasing to 1-2"/hr for
several hours in far southern MN and into SW WI. The morning
commute for southern/eastern MN into western WI will likely have
ongoing snow then the snowfall will steadily diminish as the day
progresses. However, strong winds for much of the region will
contribute to the blowing snow issues, making for hazardous
travel conditions for much of southern MN. Another concern is
isolated thunderstorms could develop over far southern MN into
southwestern WI. Instability levels are not entirely zero given
the antecedent moisture levels plus the incoming surge and that
additional lift will be created by the pivoting upper level
trough. Confidence not high enough to include mention at this
point but some thunder cannot be ruled out.

Precipitation will end from west to east late tomorrow afternoon
through tomorrow night and the wind speeds will decrease as well,
resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies for the start of the
weekend. As for temperatures, once temperatures drop below
freezing later this evening, they will remain below freezing
throughout the duration of this event. Lows tonight to highs
tomorrow will have a very small diurnal range, potentially 5
degrees or less from tonight through tomorrow. As colder air wraps
around this system as it departs, lows will drop into the teens
tomorrow night, temperatures this area has not seen in some time
but will be actually right on par with climatological norms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Temperatures will warm through early next week. A fairly large
storm will develop over the Upper Midwest, but thermal profiles
should be warm enough to have mostly rain, especially if the
system translates westward with time.

A weak clipper system will sweep through the region on Sunday and
could bring some snow across MN/WI. On Monday the southern stream
will develop a storm to the southeast over the Ohio river valley.

This will be followed by a third system Tuesday into Wednesday.
This mid-week storm will have a favorable temperature gradient
to work with and should develop strong cyclone. However, there is
a lot of warm air with this storm, so the primary p-type will be
rain, with perhaps some snow mixed in. There is still uncertainty
with this storm, but as of now it appears that the chance is quite
low for this system to develop into a winter storm for the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Potent winter storm still on track to impact 4 of the 6 WFO MPX
TAF sites (KAXN-KSTC look to remain out of the crosshairs as the
models are still putting SE MN in the crosshairs for heaviest snow
with a sharp dropoff going NW). MVFR to IFR conditions will
develop overnight with some periods of heavy snow over southern MN
into parts of western WI. Winds will also kick up overnight and
remain elevated through tomorrow with speeds increasing to
15-20G30kt for much of the coverage area. These speeds may well
created BLSN concerns for RWF-MSP and potentially the WI TAF
sites. Slow improvement will take place late tomorrow afternoon
through tomorrow evening (mainly past the end time of the 24/18z
TAFs).

KMSP...Timing/durations of IFR look to be less, mainly confined to
around the Friday morning push through midday Friday. Some
ceilings around that time could also drop into IFR levels which
would be lower than currently advertised. The strong winds may
well create visibility issues due to blowing/drifting for much of
the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for WIZ015-016-023>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for WIZ014.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for MNZ063-069-070.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for MNZ060-062-065>068-073.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday for
     MNZ074>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231851
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1251 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Satellite imagery this morning and short term weather models
continued to depict the much drier air advecting southward across
Minnesota. The drier air will have a major impact on the timing of
the precipitation this afternoon which will be limited to far
southern Minnesota where the depth of the moisture will be more
apparent. Temepratures will be much cooler than yesterday, but
still above normal with readings in the 30s, to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

We`ll start with the highlights for the Friday winter storm.  We
updated the forecast to reflect a blend of the 00z runs of the
GFS/ECMWF along with the WPC QPF guidance. The result of this was
a nearly 50% reduction in the snowfall forecast from Marshall
through much of the Twin Cities metro to Rice Lake, WI and points
north. The heaviest snow in the form of 12-15" with amounts up to
18" not unreasonable is still in the forecast, but is now forecast
along and south of a Fairmont to Eau Claire line with a much
tighter gradient in place to the northwest of where the heaviest
snow band is expected. These adjustments to the snowfall forecast,
along with increased confidence on where the heaviest snow will
fall resulted in upgrades to a blizzard warning in south central
MN, with a winter storm warning to the northeast into Chippewa
county in WI, with a buffer of watches left in place around the
warnings. We also trimmed the northwest tier of counties out of
the watch.

Main change seen with the guidance overnight was an overall
convergence toward what the ECMWF has been showing the past few
days. The NAM and several of the hi-res models lie northwest of
the preferred GFS/ECMWF blend, but even these models have been
trending southeast toward the preferred blend with each successive
run. The current forecast has fairly robust agreement within the
GEFS as well and we have fairly high confidence in the current
forecast, at least for where the heaviest band of snow will fall
(Fairmont up toward Eau Claire). There is less confidence
northwest of the main band, though the gradient in the end may end
up being even tighter than what we currently have. This gradient
makes county based warnings somewhat difficult, which is displayed
best by Washington county, where we currently have about 9 inches
forecast down by Cottage Grove and Afton, with totals closer to 3
inches up by Forest Lake.

Models continue to show a weak upper wave moving across the area
Sunday, with low pops in for that. In addition, our temperatures
after Friday will be strongly tied to our expected change in snow
cover and did move high temperature forecasts Saturday through
Monday toward the ECMWF, which shows considerably warmer
temperatures across western and central MN, where bare ground
is expected to be maintained.

Next potential system of significance comes Tuesday/Wednesday.
The Canadian continues to look unreasonably strong with this
system, the GFS continues to struggle to get anything of
significance going, while the ECMWF continues to have another
decent little precip event for us. Given the spread, we only have
chance pops at best. This looks to be a warmer system as well,
with a rain/snow mix expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Potent winter storm still on track to impact 4 of the 6 WFO MPX
TAF sites (KAXN-KSTC look to remain out of the crosshairs as the
models are still putting SE MN in the crosshairs for heaviest snow
with a sharp dropoff going NW). MVFR to IFR conditions will
develop overnight with some periods of heavy snow over southern MN
into parts of western WI. Winds will also kick up overnight and
remain elevated through tomorrow with speeds increasing to
15-20G30kt for much of the coverage area. These speeds may well
created BLSN concerns for RWF-MSP and potentially the WI TAF
sites. Slow improvement will take place late tomorrow afternoon
through tomorrow evening (mainly past the end time of the 24/18z
TAFs).

KMSP...Timing/durations of IFR look to be less, mainly confined to
around the Friday morning push through midday Friday. Some
ceilings around that time could also drop into IFR levels which
would be lower than currently advertised. The strong winds may
well create visibility issues due to blowing/drifting for much of
the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for WIZ015-016-023>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for WIZ014.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for MNZ063-069-070.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for MNZ060-062-065>068-073.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday for
     MNZ074>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC




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