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000
FXUS63 KDLH 291126
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northern
Ontario will not be moving anywhere in a hurry through Tuesday. It
will mainly spin and slowly drift north and east through Ontario.
This low will maintain cool, humid, and breezy west-northwest flow
across the Northland. Multiple shortwave troughs will drop through
the area, helping to develop rain showers.

Today will be the wetter and breezier day. Scattered showers will
develop across the Northland by late this morning. The GFS, NAM,
RAP, and SREF indicate there will be up to a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead, and in the far
southeast forecast in northwest Wisconsin. These areas could see
some isolated, weak thunderstorms. Expect highs in the middle to
upper 50s, with afternoon gusts of 15 to 25 mph. There could be
stray gusts to 30 mph with the heavier showers and the storms.

The showers will taper off this evening around and after sunset.
Another shortwave trough will probably spread additional showers
out of Canada into northern Minnesota later in the night.
Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster temperatures to the lower 40s.

Tuesday will be a similar story to Monday, but not quite as wet
and windy. Also, the threat of thunder looks very low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The upper level trough will continue to move east Tuesday night
into Wednesday with northwest flow over the region. A low level
ridge will be in place over western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas by
Wednesday afternoon but will weaken as it moves east into
Thursday. There will be a chance for showers Tuesday evening over
eastern portions of the Northland and over the Arrowhead Thursday,
but most other areas will be dry. Highs Wednesday will be in the
mid sixties to around seventy...and in the upper sixties to mid
seventies Thursday.

Friday also looks like a dry day with shortwave ridging over the
Northern Plains and a surface ridge extending south into the
region. Highs will range from the mid sixties to lower seventies
but be cooler around Lake Superior as off lake winds develop.

The models start to diverge in their solutions over the weekend
and confidence is lower than normal into early next week. The
differences are in how they treat a northern stream shortwave that
will start to affect the region Saturday continuing into Sunday.
The GFS is now stronger with the shortwave but also seems to be
suffering from convective feedback as the wave continues into
Minnesota. The ECMWF which had a stronger low/wave with previous
runs is now weaker and keeps much of the area dry through the
weekend with high pressure. We have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast over the weekend over portions of
the Northland but overall confidence in one model is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

An upper level low will remain over the area today into tonight
and a couple of shortwaves will rotate around this low through the
period. Periods of showers will occur into this evening but
coverage should diminish for most areas later this afternoon into
this evening. A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions will occur for
most areas this morning. We do expect ceilings to lift some
through the day with VFR conditions occurring this afternoon and
evening...mainly across southern TAF sites. MVFR and possible IFR
ceilings will expand again later tonight.

Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through much of the
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  43  54  42 /  50  20  30  20
INL  54  44  54  42 /  70  30  40  20
BRD  57  45  57  43 /  30  10  30  10
HYR  58  45  56  43 /  50  40  40  20
ASX  58  45  56  44 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde



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000
FXUS63 KMPX 291000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
500 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 456 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Today is expected to be cooler and breezy with increasing clouds,
scattered showers, and even an isolated thunderstorm possible. A
few stronger cells could bring down some wind gusts near 40 mph,
but not expecting enough instability for any severe weather today.
Tonight will be cool overnight lows about 5 degrees below the
seasonal average for late May.

Early morning satellite imagery with surface obs showed a counter
clockwise circulation over northern Lake Superior, with cyclonic
flow extending across all of Minnesota and Wisconsin as well. Low
clouds and drizzle were wrapping around this low, and should
overspread the region this morning. The abundance of cloud cover
will limit heating, so continued with cool temperatures today. It
will also prevent CAPE from building across the region, so unlike
Sunday, not expecting much in the way of deep convection. The best
chance for thunder is across southern Minnesota. It will be
breezy, so could see some gusty winds with a passing shower, but
smaller dewpoint depression should keep any wind gusts sub-severe.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Another day of isolated-scattered showers, breezy conditions and
below normal temperatures is on tap for Tuesday with deep cyclonic
flow still in place. Showers should be less numerous than today with
poorer lapse rates.

A surface ridge axis will reach the eastern/central Dakotas
Tuesday night and pass overhead Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Strong WAA on the backside of the axis will bring returning
moisture rapidly northward with the Gulf remaining wide open. With
the trough stuck over the northeast and most of eastern Canada, a
boundary will have difficulty lifting north of I-94 and will
likely stall in the vicinity of southern MN/northern IA Thursday
through Saturday. The best forcing for ascent appears to be tied
to the LLJ impinging on the boundary over eastern SD Wednesday
evening, veering to southwestern MN and IA late Wednesday night
and remaining there through Friday, before again veering more
easterly Friday night. PWATs increase toward 1.5 inches and there
should be enough instability for thunderstorm development
throughout this corridor. Wind shear doesn`t look particularly
impressive so any severe threat should be disorganized and tied to
peak heating, however repeated rounds of storms and seasonably
high PWATs could lead to some heavy rain concerns.

Another approaching trough should bring a cold front through
Saturday/Saturday night with cooler and drier air returning
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

VFR conditions should give way to MVFR as cold air moves across
the region and brings MVFR Cigs. A few showers will pass through
the region as well, but they are expected to be light and brief.
The chance for thunder is too low to mention in the TAFS. Skies
may clear later tonight, but kept MVFR Cigs for the northern taf
sites.

KMSP...
Ceilings will be tricky as there is not a uniform cloud deck
upstream to track toward MSP. Should have ceilings above 1700 feet
for the duration of the TAF period with west/northwest winds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Isolated MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290910
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
410 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Today is expected to be cooler and breezy with increasing clouds,
scattered showers, and even an isolated thunderstorm possible. A
few stronger cells could bring down some wind gusts near 40 mph,
but not expecting enough instability for any severe weather today.
Tonight will be cool overnight lows about 5 degrees below the
seasonal average for late May.

Early morning satellite imagery with surface obs showed a counter
clockwise circulation over northern Lake Superior, with cyclonic
flow extending across all of Minnesota and Wisconsin as well. Low
clouds and drizzle were wrapping around this low, and should
overspread the region this morning. The abundance of cloud cover
will limit heating, so continued with cool temperatures today. It
will also prevent CAPE from building across the region, so unlike
Sunday, not expecting much in the way of deep convection. The best
chance for thunder is across southern Minnesota. It will be
breezy, so could see some gusty winds with a passing shower, but
smaller dewpoint depression should keep any wind gusts sub-severe.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Another day of isolated-scattered showers, breezy conditions and
below normal temperatures is on tap for Tuesday with deep cyclonic
flow still in place. Showers should be less numerous than today with
poorer lapse rates.

A surface ridge axis will reach the eastern/central Dakotas
Tuesday night and pass overhead Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Strong WAA on the backside of the axis will bring returning
moisture rapidly northward with the Gulf remaining wide open. With
the trough stuck over the northeast and most of eastern Canada, a
boundary will have difficulty lifting north of I-94 and will
likely stall in the vicinity of southern MN/northern IA Thursday
through Saturday. The best forcing for ascent appears to be tied
to the LLJ impinging on the boundary over eastern SD Wednesday
evening, veering to southwestern MN and IA late Wednesday night
and remaining there through Friday, before again veering more
easterly Friday night. PWATs increase toward 1.5 inches and there
should be enough instability for thunderstorm development
throughout this corridor. Wind shear doesn`t look particularly
impressive so any severe threat should be disorganized and tied to
peak heating, however repeated rounds of storms and seasonably
high PWATs could lead to some heavy rain concerns.

Another approaching trough should bring a cold front through
Saturday/Saturday night with cooler and drier air returning
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

In the wake of the showers we will see winds calm down to around
or below 10 kts overnight. MVFR ceilings will arrive by 09z at
KAXN and expand south and east to the rest of the sites toward
(or shortly after) daybreak. MVFR cigs then persist through
Monday, with scattered showers developing by 17z. Winds will also
become gusty from the west, with sustained speeds 15-17kts and
gusts to around 25 kts. Monday evening gusts begin to diminish and
scattering of the MVFR deck occurs as well.

KMSP...
VFR conditions are expected until the stratus deck settles in
between 12z and 15z. Scattered showers will then be possible
through the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Isolated MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290805
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northern
Ontario will not be moving anywhere in a hurry through Tuesday. It
will mainly spin and slowly drift north and east through Ontario.
This low will maintain cool, humid, and breezy west-northwest flow
across the Northland. Multiple shortwave troughs will drop through
the area, helping to develop rain showers.

Today will be the wetter and breezier day. Scattered showers will
develop across the Northland by late this morning. The GFS, NAM,
RAP, and SREF indicate there will be up to a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead, and in the far
southeast forecast in northwest Wisconsin. These areas could see
some isolated, weak thunderstorms. Expect highs in the middle to
upper 50s, with afternoon gusts of 15 to 25 mph. There could be
stray gusts to 30 mph with the heavier showers and the storms.

The showers will taper off this evening around and after sunset.
Another shortwave trough will probably spread additional showers
out of Canada into northern Minnesota later in the night.
Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster temperatures to the lower 40s.

Tuesday will be a similar story to Monday, but not quite as wet
and windy. Also, the threat of thunder looks very low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The upper level trough will continue to move east Tuesday night
into Wednesday with northwest flow over the region. A low level
ridge will be in place over western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas by
Wednesday afternoon but will weaken as it moves east into
Thursday. There will be a chance for showers Tuesday evening over
eastern portions of the Northland and over the Arrowhead Thursday,
but most other areas will be dry. Highs Wednesday will be in the
mid sixties to around seventy...and in the upper sixties to mid
seventies Thursday.

Friday also looks like a dry day with shortwave ridging over the
Northern Plains and a surface ridge extending south into the
region. Highs will range from the mid sixties to lower seventies
but be cooler around Lake Superior as off lake winds develop.

The models start to diverge in their solutions over the weekend
and confidence is lower than normal into early next week. The
differences are in how they treat a northern stream shortwave that
will start to affect the region Saturday continuing into Sunday.
The GFS is now stronger with the shortwave but also seems to be
suffering from convective feedback as the wave continues into
Minnesota. The ECMWF which had a stronger low/wave with previous
runs is now weaker and keeps much of the area dry through the
weekend with high pressure. We have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast over the weekend over portions of
the Northland but overall confidence in one model is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft in combination with
diurnal heating and some weak impulses aloft will keep showers in
the terminal forecasts through much of the TAF period. A surge of
colder air moving into the area from the northwest will sweep some
IFR ceilings into the terminals beginning shortly after issuance
time and continuing through at least 15z, slowly improving to MVFR
afterwards. Ceilings are likely to deteriorate again after 02z,
but this is most likely farther north and have limited this only
to KINL for now. Where clouds clear for a short while for the next
several hours fog may form, but have left out for now and will
have to monitor for later fog development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  43  54  42 /  50  20  30  20
INL  54  44  54  42 /  70  30  40  20
BRD  57  45  57  43 /  30  10  30  10
HYR  58  45  56  43 /  50  40  40  20
ASX  58  45  56  44 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290539
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1239 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Am in the process of doing some updates to the forecast for the
latest radar trends, that should be out shortly. Below is an
aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

There were numerous showers and storms across the northland this
afternoon and these will continue for most of the night and
Monday. But, I think we should see some decrease in coverage as
solar support is lost. The culprit is a deep low pressure area
over southern Manitoba and northwestern Quebec. Vort maxima will
be rotating around the low and over the northland. One went
through this morning and early afternoon and another is coming
through MN and a few more are still upstream, taking aim on the
Northland. With a low freezing level, these storms have been very
low-topped and especially productive small hail producers. Had a
pilot report of thunderstorm top over Duluth of only 20,000K feet.
Expect about the same type of weather Monday, but maybe not quite
so rambunctious as the temperature lapse rate won`t be quite as
strong with warmer 500 mb and little instability.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The closed upper low meanders around northwest Ontario Monday night
through Tuesday night. Several pieces of energy, along with a pair
of tight short wave trofs, will rotate through the forecast area
during this time. Periods of showers are expected, but will be
difficult to time. This leads to the chance pops that will be
carried in the forecast through Tuesday night. Much cooler temps are
forecast as 850mb temps drop to near zero celsius through this
period. The rain will end from west to east Tuesday night as high
pressure builds into the region. After a dry Wednesday morning,
model differences begin in the afternoon. The NAM/GEM are dry, the
ECMWF/GFS pop some showers over northern Minnesota. This continues
Wednesday night. Used a blend which led to small pops over the
Arrowhead early, then dry overnight into Thursday morning. Thursday
afternoon finds only the GEM dry, the GFS/ECMWF have some showers.
Have pops over the eastern third of the region to account for a
short wave trof dropping south from Canada. The last piece of energy
moves over northwest Wisconsin Thursday evening and have some small
pops in place. Dry elsewhere as high pressure arrives. Ridging
covers the area on Friday. Friday night through Saturday shows a
large model spread. The GEM has ridging, the ECMWF develops a
surface low over southern Minnesota and has a large swath of QPF,
the GFS is between. Used a blend which results in low pops Friday
night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft in combination with
diurnal heating and some weak impulses aloft will keep showers in
the terminal forecasts through much of the TAF period. A surge of
colder air moving into the area from the northwest will sweep some
IFR ceilings into the terminals beginning shortly after issuance
time and continuing through at least 15z, slowly improving to MVFR
afterwards.  Ceilings are likely to deteriorate again after 02z, but
this is most likely farther north and have limited this only to KINL
for now.  Where clouds clear for a short while for the next several
hours fog may form, but have left out for now and will have to
monitor for later fog development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  56  43  54 /  40  70  20  30
INL  47  54  43  54 /  70  70  30  40
BRD  49  57  45  57 /  30  40  20  20
HYR  47  57  44  56 /  30  70  30  40
ASX  48  59  45  56 /  50  70  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...Melde/LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290345
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...For 06z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The main forecast concern is the extent of areal coverage this
evening as most of the shower/thunderstorm activity in central
Minnesota was diurnally driven. However, a more concentrated area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms that was associated with an
upper level disturbance in northern North Dakota, may allow for
the activity to continue through the evening in portions of west
central southwest/south central Minnesota /although weaker than
currently indicated on radar/. Still believe that even this
activity will decrease some due to the typical loss of daytime
heating. Will leave a low chance in this area, with most areas in
central/southern Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin
having the precipitation ending by 9 pm to midnight.

Tomorrow weather will have more cloud cover and a continued
chance of isolated/scattered showers, especially closer to the
upper low which will slowly move from northern Minnesota, into
northern Wisconsin. Temperatures will reflect the denser cloud
cover with highs only rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Normal high temperatures for late May are in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Coverage of the shower activity will begin to decrease Monday
night, and especially Tuesday as the area of low pressure and
instability moves further east of the region. Temperatures on
Tuesday could be similar to Monday as the core of the coldest
air moves overhead.

As with previous forecast discussions, high pressure will build
across the area Tuesday night, and into Wednesday. Once this high
pressure system moves off to the southeast, winds will shift to
the south. This will set the stage for warmer conditions by the
end of the week.

Models have continued to support a warm front near the
Iowa/Minnesota border Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. Elevated
instability and a low level jet associated with this front, will
likely develop an area of showers and thunderstorms, especially in
far southern Minnesota. This is also where the higher
precipitation chances remain.

The upper level pattern remains conducive for an upper level ridge
to slowly move eastward across the northern plains by the end of
the week. There remains some model differences /past model runs/
in the placement and strength of this upper level ridge by this
weekend. Therefore confidence in the forecast past Friday is low,
especially considering the spread in model solutions in terms of
frontal position over the weekend. The best forecast is continue
with low chances of precipitation and hold onto temperatures near
normal with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

In the wake of the showers we will see winds calm down to around
or below 10 kts overnight. MVFR ceilings will arrive by 09z at
KAXN and expand south and east to the rest of the sites toward
(or shortly after) daybreak. MVFR cigs then persist through
Monday, with scattered showers developing by 17z. Winds will also
become gusty from the west, with sustained speeds 15-17kts and
gusts to around 25 kts. Monday evening gusts begin to diminish and
scattering of the MVFR deck occurs as well.

KMSP...
VFR conditions are expected until the stratus deck settles in
between 12z and 15z. Scattered showers will then be possible
through the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Isolated MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282352
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
652 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Am in the process of doing some updates to the forecast for the
lastest radar trends, that should be out shortly. Below is an
aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

There were numerous showers and storms across the northland this
afternoon and these will continue for most of the night and
Monday. But, I think we should see some decrease in coverage as
solar support is lost. The culprit is a deep low pressure area
over southern Manitoba and northwestern Quebec. Vort maxima will
be rotating around the low and over the northland. One went
through this morning and early afternoon and another is coming
through MN and a few more are still upstream, taking aim on the
Northland. With a low freezing level, these storms have been very
low-topped and especially productive small hail producers. Had a
pilot report of thunderstorm top over Duluth of only 20,000K feet.
Expect about the same type of weather Monday, but maybe not quite
so rambunctious as the temperature lapse rate won`t be quite as
strong with warmer 500 mb and little instability.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The closed upper low meanders around northwest Ontario Monday night
through Tuesday night. Several pieces of energy, along with a pair
of tight short wave trofs, will rotate through the forecast area
during this time. Periods of showers are expected, but will be
difficult to time. This leads to the chance pops that will be
carried in the forecast through Tuesday night. Much cooler temps are
forecast as 850mb temps drop to near zero celsius through this
period. The rain will end from west to east Tuesday night as high
pressure builds into the region. After a dry Wednesday morning,
model differences begin in the afternoon. The NAM/GEM are dry, the
ECMWF/GFS pop some showers over northern Minnesota. This continues
Wednesday night. Used a blend which led to small pops over the
Arrowhead early, then dry overnight into Thursday morning. Thursday
afternoon finds only the GEM dry, the GFS/ECMWF have some showers.
Have pops over the eastern third of the region to account for a
short wave trof dropping south from Canada. The last piece of energy
moves over northwest Wisconsin Thursday evening and have some small
pops in place. Dry elsewhere as high pressure arrives. Ridging
covers the area on Friday. Friday night through Saturday shows a
large model spread. The GEM has ridging, the ECMWF develops a
surface low over southern Minnesota and has a large swath of QPF,
the GFS is between. Used a blend which results in low pops Friday
night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft in combination with
diurnal heating and some weak impulses aloft will keep showers in
the terminal forecasts through much of the period. A surge of
colder air moving into the area from the northwest will sweep some
IFR ceilings into the terminals from west to east beginning around
06z, and continuing through at least 18z, slowly improving to
MVFR after 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  56  43  54 /  40  60  20  30
INL  47  54  43  54 /  70  60  30  40
BRD  49  57  45  57 /  50  40  20  20
HYR  47  57  44  56 /  40  60  30  40
ASX  48  59  45  56 /  40  60  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 282352
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The main forecast concern is the extent of areal coverage this
evening as most of the shower/thunderstorm activity in central
Minnesota was diurnally driven. However, a more concentrated area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms that was associated with an
upper level disturbance in northern North Dakota, may allow for
the activity to continue through the evening in portions of west
central southwest/south central Minnesota /although weaker than
currently indicated on radar/. Still believe that even this
activity will decrease some due to the typical loss of daytime
heating. Will leave a low chance in this area, with most areas in
central/southern Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin
having the precipitation ending by 9 pm to midnight.

Tomorrow weather will have more cloud cover and a continued
chance of isolated/scattered showers, especially closer to the
upper low which will slowly move from northern Minnesota, into
northern Wisconsin. Temperatures will reflect the denser cloud
cover with highs only rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Normal high temperatures for late May are in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Coverage of the shower activity will begin to decrease Monday
night, and especially Tuesday as the area of low pressure and
instability moves further east of the region. Temperatures on
Tuesday could be similar to Monday as the core of the coldest
air moves overhead.

As with previous forecast discussions, high pressure will build
across the area Tuesday night, and into Wednesday. Once this high
pressure system moves off to the southeast, winds will shift to
the south. This will set the stage for warmer conditions by the
end of the week.

Models have continued to support a warm front near the
Iowa/Minnesota border Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. Elevated
instability and a low level jet associated with this front, will
likely develop an area of showers and thunderstorms, especially in
far southern Minnesota. This is also where the higher
precipitation chances remain.

The upper level pattern remains conducive for an upper level ridge
to slowly move eastward across the northern plains by the end of
the week. There remains some model differences /past model runs/
in the placement and strength of this upper level ridge by this
weekend. Therefore confidence in the forecast past Friday is low,
especially considering the spread in model solutions in terms of
frontal position over the weekend. The best forecast is continue
with low chances of precipitation and hold onto temperatures near
normal with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Scattered showers with gusty winds will be possible this evening.
Clouds scatter out a bit in the wake of the showers, but then MVFR
stratus builds in around/shortly after daybreak Monday. Scattered
showers will redevelop Monday, especially for the afternoon. Wind
gusts will subside overnight then pick up again on Monday from the
west, with gusts to between 25 and 30 knots becoming common by
afternoon.

KMSP...
Scattered showers will be possibly through dusk, which may produce
gusty winds (to 50 mph) and small hail. Some scattering of the
clouds this eve, but fairly confident in the arrival of MVFR cigs
around daybreak Monday. Scattered showers develop Monday,
especially during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Isolated MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 282040
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The main forecast concern is the extent of areal coverage this
evening as most of the shower/thunderstorm activity in central
Minnesota was diurnally driven. However, a more concentrated area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms that was associated with an
upper level disturbance in northern North Dakota, may allow for
the activity to continue through the evening in portions of west
central southwest/south central Minnesota /although weaker than
currently indicated on radar/. Still believe that even this
activity will decrease some due to the typical loss of daytime
heating. Will leave a low chance in this area, with most areas in
central/southern Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin
having the precipitation ending by 9 pm to midnight.

Tomorrow weather will have more cloud cover and a continued
chance of isolated/scattered showers, especially closer to the
upper low which will slowly move from northern Minnesota, into
northern Wisconsin. Temperatures will reflect the denser cloud
cover with highs only rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Normal high temperatures for late May are in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Coverage of the shower activity will begin to decrease Monday
night, and especially Tuesday as the area of low pressure and
instability moves further east of the region. Temperatures on
Tuesday could be similar to Monday as the core of the coldest
air moves overhead.

As with previous forecast discussions, high pressure will build
across the area Tuesday night, and into Wednesday. Once this high
pressure system moves off to the southeast, winds will shift to
the south. This will set the stage for warmer conditions by the
end of the week.

Models have continued to support a warm front near the
Iowa/Minnesota border Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. Elevated
instability and a low level jet associated with this front, will
likely develop an area of showers and thunderstorms, especially in
far southern Minnesota. This is also where the higher
precipitation chances remain.

The upper level pattern remains conducive for an upper level ridge
to slowly move eastward across the northern plains by the end of
the week. There remains some model differences /past model runs/
in the placement and strength of this upper level ridge by this
weekend. Therefore confidence in the forecast past Friday is low,
especially considering the spread in model solutions in terms of
frontal position over the weekend. The best forecast is continue
with low chances of precipitation and hold onto temperatures near
normal with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A cumulus field has developed across the TAF sites area. An
approaching upper level wave will cause scattered showers and
possibly even some weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, northwesterly winds will continue to be breezy this
afternoon with gusts near 25 kts before becoming lighter
overnight. MVFR conditions possible by late Monday morning as low
clouds build-in across the TAF area.

KMSP...Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon/early evening prior to 02Z. MVFR conditions are possible
by late Monday morning due to low ceiling heights. In addition,
another round of showers is anticipated by late Monday morning
through Monday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon Night...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...AMK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282032
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
332 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

There were numerous showers and storms across the northland this
afternoon and these will continue for most of the night and
Monday. But, I think we should see some decrease in coverage as
solar support is lost. The culprit is a deep low pressure area
over southern Manitoba and northwestern Quebec. Vort maxima will
be rotating around the low and over the northland. One went
through this morning and early afternoon and another is coming
through MN and a few more are still upstream, taking aim on the
Northland. With a low freezing level, these storms have been very
low-topped and especially productive small hail producers. Had a
pilot report of thunderstorm top over Duluth of only 20,000K feet.
Expect about the same type of weather Monday, but maybe not quite
so rambunctious as the temperature lapse rate won`t be quite as
strong with warmer 500 mb and little instability.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The closed upper low meanders around northwest Ontario Monday night
through Tuesday night. Several pieces of energy, along with a pair
of tight short wave trofs, will rotate through the forecast area
during this time. Periods of showers are expected, but will be
difficult to time. This leads to the chance pops that will be
carried in the forecast through Tuesday night. Much cooler temps are
forecast as 850mb temps drop to near zero celsius through this
period. The rain will end from west to east Tuesday night as high
pressure builds into the region. After a dry Wednesday morning,
model differences begin in the afternoon. The NAM/GEM are dry, the
ECMWF/GFS pop some showers over northern Minnesota. This continues
Wednesday night. Used a blend which led to small pops over the
Arrowhead early, then dry overnight into Thursday morning. Thursday
afternoon finds only the GEM dry, the GFS/ECMWF have some showers.
Have pops over the eastern third of the region to account for a
short wave trof dropping south from Canada. The last piece of energy
moves over northwest Wisconsin Thursday evening and have some small
pops in place. Dry elsewhere as high pressure arrives. Ridging
covers the area on Friday. Friday night through Saturday shows a
large model spread. The GEM has ridging, the ECMWF develops a
surface low over southern Minnesota and has a large swath of QPF,
the GFS is between. Used a blend which results in low pops Friday
night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A cut off upper low will continue to drift into Ontario and send
pieces of energy over the terminals through the forecast. These
pieces of energy will be difficult to time and have a VCSH
mentioned for most periods. There appears to be a break from the
showers late tonight before starting again by mid morning.
Ceilings will vary from VFR to MVFR, especially near showers or
thunderstorms. The storms will also be tough to time and will add
when they materialize. Some gusty winds are possible.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  56  43  54 /  40  60  20  30
INL  47  54  43  54 /  70  60  30  40
BRD  49  57  45  57 /  50  40  20  20
HYR  47  57  44  56 /  40  60  30  40
ASX  48  59  45  56 /  40  60  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281844
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
144 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Made changes to reflect current radar and cloud trends with
showers and a few thunderstorms moving over the Arrowhead and
northwest WI ahead of cold front. Lowered precipitation chances in
the west for much of the morning, then kept likely chances in for
the rest of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The Northland can expect a cooling trend and rain to begin the
week.

A cool front will continue moving east through the Northland
this morning, while an upper-level low over the Manitoba and far
northwest Ontario drops south towards the Northland today. Cool
and breezy west-northwest flow will develop in the wake of the
passing front. Scattered to widespread showers will develop by
later this morning due to the combination of the solar heating,
cold air advection, and the lift generated by the falling heights
from the approaching upper low and embedded shortwaves. There will
likely be enough surface based instability, anywhere from a
couple hundred to up to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, to
generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The
threat of severe weather will be limited by the lack of deep layer
wind shear. However, brief strong storms capable of small hail and
gusty winds are likely considering the low freezing levels and 20
to 30 knots in the mixing layer aloft. Highs should range from the
middle to upper 60s in northwest Wisconsin, to only the low 60s in
north-central Minnesota.

The upper low will move to near the Arrowhead this evening, and
the showers and thunder will taper off this evening with the
setting sun. However, showers will likely continue over the
Arrowhead and near the Canadian border through the evening.
Showers will then likely drop farther south into the Northland
later in the night as a trough swings south through the Northland
with the rotating low. Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster
temperatures, with lows only in the middle to upper 40s.

The cool, breezy, and relatively humid west to west-northwest flow
will continue Monday. It will be a similar story of scattered rain
showers by the late morning through the afternoon. The threat of
thunder looks much lower, as compared to Monday. The GFS, NAM, and
SREF are suggesting there could be enough surface-based
instability in the Arrowhead and near Price County in northwest
Wisconsin to generate some rumbles of thunder with the more robust
showers. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level low will be over northern Lake Superior Monday
evening but will lift north through mid-week. A couple more
shortwaves will rotate around the low before the flow becomes more
northwest Wednesday. There will be a chance for more showers
Monday night into Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts during this
time will generally be less than a quarter inch. Highs Tuesday
will be in the fifties.

The models diverge from midweek through the rest of the period.
The differences are in how they handle a stronger shortwave which
moves south toward the Northland mid to late week and in how they
handle an upper trough along the BC/western CONUS region late in
the week and over the weekend. The ECMWF is quicker bringing a
shortwave south, as early as Wednesday night, and the GFS has a
deeper upper low moving toward Lake Superior late in the work
week. Despite these differences, we still have confidence that
chances for rain will either be low Wednesday through Friday or
any rain that does fall will be relatively light. High
temperatures will warm to the upper sixties to lower seventies for
most areas.

Model differences increase even further over the weekend. The 00Z
ECMWF has a 1002MB surface low over east central Minnesota at 12Z
Saturday and the GFS forecasts high pressure at this same time.
The ECMWF solution would bring a chance for heavy rain to portions
of the Northland versus a dry GFS solution. We followed closer to
the GFS which has shown better run to run consistency and has
some support from the Canadian.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A cut off upper low will continue to drift into Ontario and send
pieces of energy over the terminals through the forecast. These
pieces of energy will be difficult to time and have a VCSH
mentioned for most periods. There appears to be a break from the
showers late tonight before starting again by mid morning.
Ceilings will vary from VFR to MVFR, especially near showers or
thunderstorms. The storms will also be tough to time and will add
when they materialize. Some gusty winds are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  46  56  44 /  60  30  50  40
INL  61  47  54  44 /  60  60  60  50
BRD  66  49  57  45 /  50  40  50  30
HYR  68  47  57  45 /  50  40  50  30
ASX  67  48  59  45 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281739
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers have developed across western WI overnight ahead of the
cold front passing through. These showers will push east by dawn
with a period of dry weather this morning across the CWA. As
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by late this morning,
some weak surface-based CAPE will develop within the cyclonic
flow of the upper low centered just south of Hudson Bay. This
should allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop,
most numerous north of I-94, and persist until diurnal instability
diminishes this evening. With seasonably cold thicknesses in
place, some of the more vigorous storms could contain hail, but
severe weather risk will be minimal due to such meager instability.

Steep low level lapse rates and cold air advection will bring a
windy day as well. Winds are beginning to gust into the 20-25 mph
range across western MN, even early this morning. Forecast
soundings show good potential to gust to 25-30 mph area wide this
afternoon before boundary layer stabilization this evening leads
to a quick drop off in gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The long term can be broken down into 3 parts. The first is cool,
showery weather on Monday with a few afternoon showers possible
again on Tuesday. The second it dry weather for Wednesday the third
is a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as
warmer, more seasonable air moves across the region.

On Monday an area of upper level vorticity will spin across the
Great Lakes region, and drive cool, Canadian air across the Upper
Midwest. The forcing associated with the wave, together with the
unstable air generated by the reservoir of cold air aloft will lead
to some afternoon rain showers on Monday, with a few lingering into
Tuesday afternoon as well. A few of the stronger cores could produce
some pea-size hail.  Northwest wind will gust near 25 mph on Monday,
and near 15 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be dry as a surface high pressure centers itself
across the region. The upper level ridge axis associated with this
surface high is narrow, meaning that as it moves east expect
southerly flow to return quickly so that by Wednesday night should
see a warm front lifting up from the southwest. The GFS/GEM 28.00
are in good agreement with an MCS developing and moving along this
boundary on Thursday. The ECMWF is less aggressive.

Confidence beyond this period is low. There will be an upper level
wave dropping down from Canada, and depending on the timing this
could lead to a return of cooler, drier air for Friday and Saturday
as shown in the GFS/GEM, or else if it is quicker like the ECMWF
indicates, then more zonal flow may set up across the region and
bring warmer more humid air with chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A cumulus field has developed across the TAF sites area. An
approaching upper level wave will cause scattered showers and
possibly even some weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, northwesterly winds will continue to be breezy this
afternoon with gusts near 25 kts before becoming lighter
overnight. MVFR conditions possible by late Monday morning as low
clouds build-in across the TAF area.


KMSP...Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon/early evening prior to 02Z. MVFR conditions are possible
by late Monday morning due to low ceiling heights. In addition,
another round of showers is anticipated by late Monday morning
through Monday afternoon.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon Night...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...AMK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281334 CCA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
834 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Made changes to reflect current radar and cloud trends with
showers and a few thunderstorms moving over the Arrowhead and
northwest WI ahead of cold front. Lowered precipitation chances in
the west for much of the morning, then kept likely chances in for
the rest of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The Northland can expect a cooling trend and rain to begin the
week.

A cool front will continue moving east through the Northland
this morning, while an upper-level low over the Manitoba and far
northwest Ontario drops south towards the Northland today. Cool
and breezy west-northwest flow will develop in the wake of the
passing front. Scattered to widespread showers will develop by
later this morning due to the combination of the solar heating,
cold air advection, and the lift generated by the falling heights
from the approaching upper low and embedded shortwaves. There will
likely be enough surface based instability, anywhere from a
couple hundred to up to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, to
generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The
threat of severe weather will be limited by the lack of deep layer
wind shear. However, brief strong storms capable of small hail and
gusty winds are likely considering the low freezing levels and 20
to 30 knots in the mixing layer aloft. Highs should range from the
middle to upper 60s in northwest Wisconsin, to only the low 60s in
north-central Minnesota.

The upper low will move to near the Arrowhead this evening, and
the showers and thunder will taper off this evening with the
setting sun. However, showers will likely continue over the
Arrowhead and near the Canadian border through the evening.
Showers will then likely drop farther south into the Northland
later in the night as a trough swings south through the Northland
with the rotating low. Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster
temperatures, with lows only in the middle to upper 40s.

The cool, breezy, and relatively humid west to west-northwest flow
will continue Monday. It will be a similar story of scattered rain
showers by the late morning through the afternoon. The threat of
thunder looks much lower, as compared to Monday. The GFS, NAM, and
SREF are suggesting there could be enough surface-based
instability in the Arrowhead and near Price County in northwest
Wisconsin to generate some rumbles of thunder with the more robust
showers. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level low will be over northern Lake Superior Monday
evening but will lift north through mid-week. A couple more
shortwaves will rotate around the low before the flow becomes more
northwest Wednesday. There will be a chance for more showers
Monday night into Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts during this
time will generally be less than a quarter inch. Highs Tuesday
will be in the fifties.

The models diverge from midweek through the rest of the period.
The differences are in how they handle a stronger shortwave which
moves south toward the Northland mid to late week and in how they
handle an upper trough along the BC/western CONUS region late in
the week and over the weekend. The ECMWF is quicker bringing a
shortwave south, as early as Wednesday night, and the GFS has a
deeper upper low moving toward Lake Superior late in the work
week. Despite these differences, we still have confidence that
chances for rain will either be low Wednesday through Friday or
any rain that does fall will be relatively light. High
temperatures will warm to the upper sixties to lower seventies for
most areas.

Model differences increase even further over the weekend. The 00Z
ECMWF has a 1002MB surface low over east central Minnesota at 12Z
Saturday and the GFS forecasts high pressure at this same time.
The ECMWF solution would bring a chance for heavy rain to portions
of the Northland versus a dry GFS solution. We followed closer to
the GFS which has shown better run to run consistency and has
some support from the Canadian.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level low will be over the region into the early part of
the week. Several shortwaves will rotate around this low causing
periods of showers. A cold front will also continue to move east
through the Northland clearing the Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin by early afternoon. There will be scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Conditions
will be mostly VFR into this evening with the exception of
portions of northeast Minnesota this morning which will see
ceilings around 1000 feet for a time. As the night progresses,
MVFR and IFR ceilings will become more widespread. The showers and
storms will decrease in coverage overnight for most areas. The
exception will be along the International Border.

Gusty west to northwest winds will occur today as steep low level
lapse rates are expected. Even stronger winds will occur with the
showers.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  46  56  44 /  60  30  50  40
INL  61  47  54  44 /  60  60  60  50
BRD  66  49  57  45 /  50  40  50  30
HYR  68  47  57  45 /  50  40  50  30
ASX  67  48  59  45 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281333 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
833 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Made changes to reflect current raar and cloud trends with showers
and a few thunderstorms moving over the Arrowhead and northwest
WI ahead of cold front. Lowered precipitation chances in the west
for much of the morning, then kept likely chances in for the rest
of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The Northland can expect a cooling trend and rain to begin the
week.

A cool front will continue moving east through the Northland
this morning, while an upper-level low over the Manitoba and far
northwest Ontario drops south towards the Northland today. Cool
and breezy west-northwest flow will develop in the wake of the
passing front. Scattered to widespread showers will develop by
later this morning due to the combination of the solar heating,
cold air advection, and the lift generated by the falling heights
from the approaching upper low and embedded shortwaves. There will
likely be enough surface based instability, anywhere from a
couple hundred to up to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, to
generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The
threat of severe weather will be limited by the lack of deep layer
wind shear. However, brief strong storms capable of small hail and
gusty winds are likely considering the low freezing levels and 20
to 30 knots in the mixing layer aloft. Highs should range from the
middle to upper 60s in northwest Wisconsin, to only the low 60s in
north-central Minnesota.

The upper low will move to near the Arrowhead this evening, and
the showers and thunder will taper off this evening with the
setting sun. However, showers will likely continue over the
Arrowhead and near the Canadian border through the evening.
Showers will then likely drop farther south into the Northland
later in the night as a trough swings south through the Northland
with the rotating low. Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster
temperatures, with lows only in the middle to upper 40s.

The cool, breezy, and relatively humid west to west-northwest flow
will continue Monday. It will be a similar story of scattered rain
showers by the late morning through the afternoon. The threat of
thunder looks much lower, as compared to Monday. The GFS, NAM, and
SREF are suggesting there could be enough surface-based
instability in the Arrowhead and near Price County in northwest
Wisconsin to generate some rumbles of thunder with the more robust
showers. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level low will be over northern Lake Superior Monday
evening but will lift north through mid-week. A couple more
shortwaves will rotate around the low before the flow becomes more
northwest Wednesday. There will be a chance for more showers
Monday night into Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts during this
time will generally be less than a quarter inch. Highs Tuesday
will be in the fifties.

The models diverge from midweek through the rest of the period.
The differences are in how they handle a stronger shortwave which
moves south toward the Northland mid to late week and in how they
handle an upper trough along the BC/western CONUS region late in
the week and over the weekend. The ECMWF is quicker bringing a
shortwave south, as early as Wednesday night, and the GFS has a
deeper upper low moving toward Lake Superior late in the work
week. Despite these differences, we still have confidence that
chances for rain will either be low Wednesday through Friday or
any rain that does fall will be relatively light. High
temperatures will warm to the upper sixties to lower seventies for
most areas.

Model differences increase even further over the weekend. The 00Z
ECMWF has a 1002MB surface low over east central Minnesota at 12Z
Saturday and the GFS forecasts high pressure at this same time.
The ECMWF solution would bring a chance for heavy rain to portions
of the Northland versus a dry GFS solution. We followed closer to
the GFS which has shown better run to run consistency and has
some support from the Canadian.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level low will be over the region into the early part of
the week. Several shortwaves will rotate around this low causing
periods of showers. A cold front will also continue to move east
through the Northland clearing the Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin by early afternoon. There will be scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Conditions
will be mostly VFR into this evening with the exception of
portions of northeast Minnesota this morning which will see
ceilings around 1000 feet for a time. As the night progresses,
MVFR and IFR ceilings will become more widespread. The showers and
storms will decrease in coverage overnight for most areas. The
exception will be along the International Border.

Gusty west to northwest winds will occur today as steep low level
lapse rates are expected. Even stronger winds will occur with the
showers.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  46  56  44 /  60  30  50  40
INL  61  47  54  44 /  60  60  60  50
BRD  66  49  57  45 /  50  40  50  30
HYR  68  47  57  45 /  50  40  50  30
ASX  67  48  59  45 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281144 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers have developed across western WI overnight ahead of the
cold front passing through. These showers will push east by dawn
with a period of dry weather this morning across the CWA. As
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by late this morning,
some weak surface-based CAPE will develop within the cyclonic
flow of the upper low centered just south of Hudson Bay. This
should allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop,
most numerous north of I-94, and persist until diurnal instability
diminishes this evening. With seasonably cold thicknesses in
place, some of the more vigorous storms could contain hail, but
severe weather risk will be minimal due to such meager instability.

Steep low level lapse rates and cold air advection will bring a
windy day as well. Winds are beginning to gust into the 20-25 mph
range across western MN, even early this morning. Forecast
soundings show good potential to gust to 25-30 mph area wide this
afternoon before boundary layer stabilization this evening leads
to a quick drop off in gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The long term can be broken down into 3 parts. The first is cool,
showery weather on Monday with a few afternoon showers possible
again on Tuesday. The second it dry weather for Wednesday the third
is a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as
warmer, more seasonable air moves across the region.

On Monday an area of upper level vorticity will spin across the
Great Lakes region, and drive cool, Canadian air across the Upper
Midwest. The forcing associated with the wave, together with the
unstable air generated by the reservoir of cold air aloft will lead
to some afternoon rain showers on Monday, with a few lingering into
Tuesday afternoon as well. A few of the stronger cores could produce
some pea-size hail.  Northwest wind will gust near 25 mph on Monday,
and near 15 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be dry as a surface high pressure centers itself
across the region. The upper level ridge axis associated with this
surface high is narrow, meaning that as it moves east expect
southerly flow to return quickly so that by Wednesday night should
see a warm front lifting up from the southwest. The GFS/GEM 28.00
are in good agreement with an MCS developing and moving along this
boundary on Thursday. The ECMWF is less aggressive.

Confidence beyond this period is low. There will be an upper level
wave dropping down from Canada, and depending on the timing this
could lead to a return of cooler, drier air for Friday and Saturday
as shown in the GFS/GEM, or else if it is quicker like the ECMWF
indicates, then more zonal flow may set up across the region and
bring warmer more humid air with chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions until late tonight when MVFR cigs may start
dropping south into central MN. Scattered showers and a few storms
will form across much of the region this afternoon, with the
highest coverage likely in the vicinity of AXN and STC. Left it
out elsewhere for now due to coverage concerns. West winds will
ramp up this morning, with gusts around 25 kt this afternoon.

KMSP...Best risk for showers and storms will be north this
afternoon, but a few cells could drift south toward the terminal.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281144
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
644 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The Northland can expect a cooling trend and rain to begin the
week.

A cool front will continue moving east through the Northland
this morning, while an upper-level low over the Manitoba and far
northwest Ontario drops south towards the Northland today. Cool
and breezy west-northwest flow will develop in the wake of the
passing front. Scattered to widespread showers will develop by
later this morning due to the combination of the solar heating,
cold air advection, and the lift generated by the falling heights
from the approaching upper low and embedded shortwaves. There will
likely be enough surface based instability, anywhere from a
couple hundred to up to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, to
generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The
threat of severe weather will be limited by the lack of deep layer
wind shear. However, brief strong storms capable of small hail and
gusty winds are likely considering the low freezing levels and 20
to 30 knots in the mixing layer aloft. Highs should range from the
middle to upper 60s in northwest Wisconsin, to only the low 60s in
north-central Minnesota.

The upper low will move to near the Arrowhead this evening, and
the showers and thunder will taper off this evening with the
setting sun. However, showers will likely continue over the
Arrowhead and near the Canadian border through the evening.
Showers will then likely drop farther south into the Northland
later in the night as a trough swings south through the Northland
with the rotating low. Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster
temperatures, with lows only in the middle to upper 40s.

The cool, breezy, and relatively humid west to west-northwest flow
will continue Monday. It will be a similar story of scattered rain
showers by the late morning through the afternoon. The threat of
thunder looks much lower, as compared to Monday. The GFS, NAM, and
SREF are suggesting there could be enough surface-based
instability in the Arrowhead and near Price County in northwest
Wisconsin to generate some rumbles of thunder with the more robust
showers. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level low will be over northern Lake Superior Monday
evening but will lift north through mid-week. A couple more
shortwaves will rotate around the low before the flow becomes more
northwest Wednesday. There will be a chance for more showers
Monday night into Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts during this
time will generally be less than a quarter inch. Highs Tuesday
will be in the fifties.

The models diverge from midweek through the rest of the period.
The differences are in how they handle a stronger shortwave which
moves south toward the Northland mid to late week and in how they
handle an upper trough along the BC/western CONUS region late in
the week and over the weekend. The ECMWF is quicker bringing a
shortwave south, as early as Wednesday night, and the GFS has a
deeper upper low moving toward Lake Superior late in the work
week. Despite these differences, we still have confidence that
chances for rain will either be low Wednesday through Friday or
any rain that does fall will be relatively light. High
temperatures will warm to the upper sixties to lower seventies for
most areas.

Model differences increase even further over the weekend. The 00Z
ECMWF has a 1002MB surface low over east central Minnesota at 12Z
Saturday and the GFS forecasts high pressure at this same time.
The ECMWF solution would bring a chance for heavy rain to portions
of the Northland versus a dry GFS solution. We followed closer to
the GFS which has shown better run to run consistency and has
some support from the Canadian.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level low will be over the region into the early part of
the week. Several shortwaves will rotate around this low causing
periods of showers. A cold front will also continue to move east
through the Northland clearing the Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin by early afternoon. There will be scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Conditions
will be mostly VFR into this evening with the exception of
portions of northeast Minnesota this morning which will see
ceilings around 1000 feet for a time. As the night progresses,
MVFR and IFR ceilings will become more widespread. The showers and
storms will decrease in coverage overnight for most areas. The
exception will be along the International Border.

Gusty west to northwest winds will occur today as steep low level
lapse rates are expected. Even stronger winds will occur with the
showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  46  56  44 /  70  30  50  40
INL  61  47  54  44 /  60  60  60  50
BRD  66  49  57  45 /  60  40  50  30
HYR  68  47  57  45 /  60  40  50  30
ASX  67  48  59  45 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280857
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
357 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers have developed across western WI overnight ahead of the
cold front passing through. These showers will push east by dawn
with a period of dry weather this morning across the CWA. As
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by late this morning,
some weak surface-based CAPE will develop within the cyclonic
flow of the upper low centered just south of Hudson Bay. This
should allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop,
most numerous north of I-94, and persist until diurnal instability
diminishes this evening. With seasonably cold thicknesses in
place, some of the more vigorous storms could contain hail, but
severe weather risk will be minimal due to such meager instability.

Steep low level lapse rates and cold air advection will bring a
windy day as well. Winds are beginning to gust into the 20-25 mph
range across western MN, even early this morning. Forecast
soundings show good potential to gust to 25-30 mph area wide this
afternoon before boundary layer stabilization this evening leads
to a quick drop off in gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The long term can be broken down into 3 parts. The first is cool,
showery weather on Monday with a few afternoon showers possible
again on Tuesday. The second it dry weather for Wednesday the third
is a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as
warmer, more seasonable air moves across the region.

On Monday an area of upper level vorticity will spin across the
Great Lakes region, and drive cool, Canadian air across the Upper
Midwest. The forcing associated with the wave, together with the
unstable air generated by the reservoir of cold air aloft will lead
to some afternoon rain showers on Monday, with a few lingering into
Tuesday afternoon as well. A few of the stronger cores could produce
some pea-size hail.  Northwest wind will gust near 25 mph on Monday,
and near 15 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be dry as a surface high pressure centers itself
across the region. The upper level ridge axis associated with this
surface high is narrow, meaning that as it moves east expect
southerly flow to return quickly so that by Wednesday night should
see a warm front lifting up from the southwest. The GFS/GEM 28.00
are in good agreement with an MCS developing and moving along this
boundary on Thursday. The ECMWF is less aggressive.

Confidence beyond this period is low. There will be an upper level
wave dropping down from Canada, and depending on the timing this
could lead to a return of cooler, drier air for Friday and Saturday
as shown in the GFS/GEM, or else if it is quicker like the ECMWF
indicates, then more zonal flow may set up across the region and
bring warmer more humid air with chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers are pushing into western MN and impacting the AXN area,
but come close to RWF and STC during the next few hours.
Additional showers and maybe a few storms will develop this
afternoon to the north, associated with a short wave rotating
around an upper low in Canada. There is a small chance of thunder
in central MN Sunday afternoon, but too small to include that
right now.

KMSP...two main concerns, both midday and afternoon Sunday. Winds
will rev up during the midday hours and there is some chance
gusts will exceed the 25 knots currently in the taf. Other issue
is a small chance of showers and maybe even thunder tomorrow
afternoon, but right now the probability is too small to include
in the taf.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF/TDK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280835
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The Northland can expect a cooling trend and rain to begin the
week.

A cool front will continue moving east through the Northland
this morning, while an upper-level low over the Manitoba and far
northwest Ontario drops south towards the Northland today. Cool
and breezy west-northwest flow will develop in the wake of the
passing front. Scattered to widespread showers will develop by
later this morning due to the combination of the solar heating,
cold air advection, and the lift generated by the falling heights
from the approaching upper low and embedded shortwaves. There will
likely be enough surface based instability, anywhere from a
couple hundred to up to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, to
generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The
threat of severe weather will be limited by the lack of deep layer
wind shear. However, brief strong storms capable of small hail and
gusty winds are likely considering the low freezing levels and 20
to 30 knots in the mixing layer aloft. Highs should range from the
middle to upper 60s in northwest Wisconsin, to only the low 60s in
north-central Minnesota.

The upper low will move to near the Arrowhead this evening, and
the showers and thunder will taper off this evening with the
setting sun. However, showers will likely continue over the
Arrowhead and near the Canadian border through the evening.
Showers will then likely drop farther south into the Northland
later in the night as a trough swings south through the Northland
with the rotating low. Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster
temperatures, with lows only in the middle to upper 40s.

The cool, breezy, and relatively humid west to west-northwest flow
will continue Monday. It will be a similar story of scattered rain
showers by the late morning through the afternoon. The threat of
thunder looks much lower, as compared to Monday. The GFS, NAM, and
SREF are suggesting there could be enough surface-based
instability in the Arrowhead and near Price County in northwest
Wisconsin to generate some rumbles of thunder with the more robust
showers. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level low will be over northern Lake Superior Monday
evening but will lift north through mid-week. A couple more
shortwaves will rotate around the low before the flow becomes more
northwest Wednesday. There will be a chance for more showers
Monday night into Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts during this
time will generally be less than a quarter inch. Highs Tuesday
will be in the fifties.

The models diverge from midweek through the rest of the period.
The differences are in how they handle a stronger shortwave which
moves south toward the Northland mid to late week and in how they
handle an upper trough along the BC/western CONUS region late in
the week and over the weekend. The ECMWF is quicker bringing a
shortwave south, as early as Wednesday night, and the GFS has a
deeper upper low moving toward Lake Superior late in the work
week. Despite these differences, we still have confidence that
chances for rain will either be low Wednesday through Friday or
any rain that does fall will be relatively light. High
temperatures will warm to the upper sixties to lower seventies for
most areas.

Model differences increase even further over the weekend. The 00Z
ECMWF has a 1002MB surface low over east central Minnesota at 12Z
Saturday and the GFS forecasts high pressure at this same time.
The ECMWF solution would bring a chance for heavy rain to portions
of the Northland versus a dry GFS solution. We followed closer to
the GFS which has shown better run to run consistency and has
some support from the Canadian.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A cold front and shortwave aloft is moving into the northland as
of issuance time, which will bring scattered showers to the
terminals generally from west to east. So far observations have
reported mainly VFR conditions with this wave and have just put in
VCSH for most terminals as it moves in. Even as this wave is
moving across northwest Wisconsin around 15z, steep low level
lapse rates will generate additional showers and even some
thunderstorms along with lower cloud bases. KINL is most likely to
drop into MVFR so have put at least a short period of ceilings
14z-18z before allowing ceilings to rise back to VFR. After 00z
MVFR ceilngs are expected to move back into the area from the
north. Timing is uncertain, but generally after 03z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  46  56  44 /  70  30  50  40
INL  61  47  54  44 /  60  60  60  50
BRD  66  49  57  45 /  60  40  50  30
HYR  68  47  57  45 /  60  40  50  30
ASX  67  48  59  45 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280533
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Updated aviation section below.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A quick update to account for the latest radar trends, and
aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight then showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday. A few storms may be strong Sunday.

A closed upper-level low was centered over central Manitoba this
afternoon with three distinct vorticity maxima observed by water
vapor imagery. Self-destructive sunshine in north-central
Minnesota this morning and early this afternoon has supported the
development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Expect the showers/ storms to increase in coverage through early
evening and gradually diminish tonight with the loss of daytime
heating. Sharp 850 mb height falls are expected overnight as the
vort max over southwest Manitoba rotates into northern Minnesota
tonight. The shower coverage should increase once again late
tonight as the trough moves across northern Minnesota.
Temperatures tonight will dip in to the upper 30s in portions of
northern Minnesota to near 50 degrees in the Brainerd Lakes and
locales from Spooner to Phillips, WI.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected. The shortwave trough and initial
vort max will push through northwest Wisconsin during the morning
with a few showers possible. Skies will clear behind the morning
precipitation yielding increased insolation and warming
temperatures. The combination of early morning precip and heating
should result in MLCAPE values of 750-1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear
is somewhat limited, between 25 and 30 knots in the 0-6 km layer.
However, with continued cool advection aloft and modest
instability, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in northwest
Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. Frequent lightning, brief heavy
downpours, and hail up to penny size are possible with the
strongest storms. Anyone with outdoor plans is encouraged to keep
up with the forecast during the day and be aware of the nearest
shelter should storms threaten. Highs will reach the middle 60s in
north-central Minnesota to near 70 degrees in our southern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Much of the long term period will be dominated by a massive upper
level low that will establish itself over the Great Lakes region.
Scattered showers will be common across the Northland from Sunday
night into Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially Sunday evening and Monday afternoon, and due to the
cold air aloft, perhaps some small hail. The chance of showers
should diminish considerably by Tuesday night, although cannot
rule out a few showers on Wednesday. Have kept it out of the grids
for now, but may need to add some diurnally driven showers for
Wednesday afternoon in the Minnesota Arrowhead and northern
Wisconsin. High pressure will build in for the end of the work
week, but northwest flow will continue into Thursday or Thursday
night. Heights are then expected to build at the end of the work
week and into the first part of the weekend. The ECMWF and GFS do
show some dramatic differences at that range, so will carry small
POP`s but confidence is lower. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be
limited to the 50`s due to showers and fairly abundant cloud
cover. By Wednesday, temperatures should return to the 60`s, with
70s for the last portion of the work week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler at times near Lake Superior, as is
typical this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A cold front and shortwave aloft is moving into the northland as
of issuance time, which will bring scattered showers to the
terminals generally from west to east. So far observations have
reported mainly VFR conditions with this wave and have just put in
VCSH for most terminals as it moves in. Even as this wave is
moving across northwest Wisconsin around 15z, steep low level
lapse rates will generate additional showers and even some
thunderstorms along with lower cloud bases. KINL is most likely
to drop into MVFR so have put at least a short period of ceilings
14z-18z before allowing ceilings to rise back to VFR. After 00z
MVFR ceilngs  are expected to move back into the area from the
north. Timing is uncertain, but generally after 03z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  66  46  57 /  30  50  30  40
INL  45  64  47  54 /  50  50  50  60
BRD  50  69  49  58 /  30  40  40  30
HYR  49  71  47  59 /  20  40  30  40
ASX  50  69  47  59 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280528 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1228 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A band of fgen to the northwest of an MCV going across IA has a
band of light rain working up into the southern Twin Cities metro
this afternoon. This will likely spread into the Eau Claire area
through the afternoon, but dry air below 8k feet may result in
more virga/sprinkles as opposed to measurable rain, so kept PoPs
confined to no higher than the 30s.

For tonight, guidance last night showed another fgen band
developing over north central IA and building toward western WI
for tonight, but guidance this morning has really backed off on
this band of precip, pushing it southeast as strong convection
getting going down in the Ozarks that will spread toward the
Tennessee Valley will help keep the southern forcing to the south.

We are also watching northern stream energy moving south across
Saskatchewan on the southwest side of an h5 low centered over
northern Manitoba. Guidance has slowed how fast this northern
stream energy gets here tomorrow, with popup afternoon showers
Sunday looking to stay confined to mainly central MN and NW WI, so
did reduce PoPs tomorrow south of I-94. In fact, Sunday really is
not looking all that bad. NAM shows us mixing a bit above 800mb,
which will ensure frequent gusts up around 25 mph by the
afternoon, but other than that, we should see a fair amount of
sun, and mixing up to h8 will allow us to warm comfortably into
the upper 60s to lower 70s, so we should put together one more
nice day Sunday before we finally turn cooler, cloudier, and
showerier for Memorial Day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Not much change in the extended period with a cool period from
Sunday night through Wednesday, with a moderating trend by late in
the week, and into next weekend.

First, instability showers will form across Minnesota, and into
western Wisconsin Monday afternoon. The core of the coldest air
will move overhead Monday night, and into Tuesday before slowly
retreating to the east by midweek. Typically, the best time period
for showers/thunderstorms will occur during the mid/late afternoon
hours which will likely be the case Monday/Tuesday. Most of the
models depict the deepest moisture associated with the upper low
across northern/eastern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. This is
also where the best chance of showers/thunderstorms will occur.
Further to the southwest in west central/southwest/south central
Minnesota, moisture depth is shallower keeping any threat on the
development of showers/thunderstorms to a minimum. Temperatures
will reflect the cooler air mass and relatively low chance of
sunshine. Upper 50s/lower 60s seem reasonable both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, with the best chance of holding in the 50s in
central Minnesota on both days.

The mean upper air pattern will slowly become more supportive of a
warming trend by the end of the week as the persistent upper
trough moves further to the east across eastern Canada. Although
it doesn`t look like above normal temperatures past next week,
humidity levels should begin to rise as a more southerly flow
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers are pushing into western MN and impacting the AXN area,
but come close to RWF and STC during the next few hours.
Additional showers and maybe a few storms will develop this
afternoon to the north, associated with a short wave rotating
around an upper low in Canada. There is a small chance of thunder
in central MN Sunday afternoon, but too small to include that
right now.

KMSP...two main concerns, both midday and afternoon Sunday. Winds
will rev up during the midday hours and there is some chance
gusts will exceed the 25 knots currently in the taf. Other issue
is a small chance of showers and maybe even thunder tomorrow
afternoon, but right now the probability is too small to include
in the taf.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF/TDK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280038
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
738 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A quick update to account for the latest radar trends, and
aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight then showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday. A few storms may be strong Sunday.

A closed upper-level low was centered over central Manitoba this
afternoon with three distinct vorticity maxima observed by water
vapor imagery. Self-destructive sunshine in north-central
Minnesota this morning and early this afternoon has supported the
development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Expect the showers/ storms to increase in coverage through early
evening and gradually diminish tonight with the loss of daytime
heating. Sharp 850 mb height falls are expected overnight as the
vort max over southwest Manitoba rotates into northern Minnesota
tonight. The shower coverage should increase once again late
tonight as the trough moves across northern Minnesota.
Temperatures tonight will dip in to the upper 30s in portions of
northern Minnesota to near 50 degrees in the Brainerd Lakes and
locales from Spooner to Phillips, WI.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected. The shortwave trough and initial
vort max will push through northwest Wisconsin during the morning
with a few showers possible. Skies will clear behind the morning
precipitation yielding increased insolation and warming
temperatures. The combination of early morning precip and heating
should result in MLCAPE values of 750-1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear
is somewhat limited, between 25 and 30 knots in the 0-6 km layer.
However, with continued cool advection aloft and modest
instability, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in northwest
Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. Frequent lightning, brief heavy
downpours, and hail up to penny size are possible with the
strongest storms. Anyone with outdoor plans is encouraged to keep
up with the forecast during the day and be aware of the nearest
shelter should storms threaten. Highs will reach the middle 60s in
north-central Minnesota to near 70 degrees in our southern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Much of the long term period will be dominated by a massive upper
level low that will establish itself over the Great Lakes region.
Scattered showers will be common across the Northland from Sunday
night into Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially Sunday evening and Monday afternoon, and due to the
cold air aloft, perhaps some small hail. The chance of showers
should diminish considerably by Tuesday night, although cannot
rule out a few showers on Wednesday. Have kept it out of the grids
for now, but may need to add some diurnally driven showers for
Wednesday afternoon in the Minnesota Arrowhead and northern
Wisconsin. High pressure will build in for the end of the work
week, but northwest flow will continue into Thursday or Thursday
night. Heights are then expected to build at the end of the work
week and into the first part of the weekend. The ECMWF and GFS do
show some dramatic differences at that range, so will carry small
POP`s but confidence is lower. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be
limited to the 50`s due to showers and fairly abundant cloud
cover. By Wednesday, temperatures should return to the 60`s, with
70s for the last portion of the work week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler at times near Lake Superior, as is
typical this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect the
northern MN terminals this evening, before diminishing a little
around 03z. Then, the main shortwave moves through the area later
tonight, with more showers moving through the area after 07z
tonight, continuing through approximately 18z for the MN
terminals, and through 20z for KHYR. Lower clouds to linger after
the showers move through, with MVFR ceilings to affect KINL, KHIB
and possibly also KDLH after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  66  46  57 /  30  50  30  40
INL  45  64  47  54 /  50  50  50  60
BRD  50  69  49  58 /  30  40  40  30
HYR  49  71  47  59 /  20  40  30  40
ASX  50  69  47  59 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280031
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
731 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A band of fgen to the northwest of an MCV going across IA has a
band of light rain working up into the southern Twin Cities metro
this afternoon. This will likely spread into the Eau Claire area
through the afternoon, but dry air below 8k feet may result in
more virga/sprinkles as opposed to measurable rain, so kept PoPs
confined to no higher than the 30s.

For tonight, guidance last night showed another fgen band
developing over north central IA and building toward western WI
for tonight, but guidance this morning has really backed off on
this band of precip, pushing it southeast as strong convection
getting going down in the Ozarks that will spread toward the
Tennessee Valley will help keep the southern forcing to the south.

We are also watching northern stream energy moving south across
Saskatchewan on the southwest side of an h5 low centered over
northern Manitoba. Guidance has slowed how fast this northern
stream energy gets here tomorrow, with popup afternoon showers
Sunday looking to stay confined to mainly central MN and NW WI, so
did reduce PoPs tomorrow south of I-94. In fact, Sunday really is
not looking all that bad. NAM shows us mixing a bit above 800mb,
which will ensure frequent gusts up around 25 mph by the
afternoon, but other than that, we should see a fair amount of
sun, and mixing up to h8 will allow us to warm comfortably into
the upper 60s to lower 70s, so we should put together one more
nice day Sunday before we finally turn cooler, cloudier, and
showerier for Memorial Day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Not much change in the extended period with a cool period from
Sunday night through Wednesday, with a moderating trend by late in
the week, and into next weekend.

First, instability showers will form across Minnesota, and into
western Wisconsin Monday afternoon. The core of the coldest air
will move overhead Monday night, and into Tuesday before slowly
retreating to the east by midweek. Typically, the best time period
for showers/thunderstorms will occur during the mid/late afternoon
hours which will likely be the case Monday/Tuesday. Most of the
models depict the deepest moisture associated with the upper low
across northern/eastern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. This is
also where the best chance of showers/thunderstorms will occur.
Further to the southwest in west central/southwest/south central
Minnesota, moisture depth is shallower keeping any threat on the
development of showers/thunderstorms to a minimum. Temperatures
will reflect the cooler air mass and relatively low chance of
sunshine. Upper 50s/lower 60s seem reasonable both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, with the best chance of holding in the 50s in
central Minnesota on both days.

The mean upper air pattern will slowly become more supportive of a
warming trend by the end of the week as the persistent upper
trough moves further to the east across eastern Canada. Although
it doesn`t look like above normal temperatures past next week,
humidity levels should begin to rise as a more southerly flow
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 730 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

For precip this evening, band of rain over southeast MN into WI
will probably miss KEAU except for a few sprinkles this evening.
Late tonight, two areas of forcing. One will affect southeast MN
into WI late tonight, but this may also wind up missing KEAU.
Other area late tonight with short wave affecting northern MN may
clip KAXN over to Mille Lacs. Finally, showers and maybe a few
storms will develop Sunday afternoon to the north, associated with
another short wave rotating around upper low in Canada. Small
chance of thunder in central MN Sunday afternoon, but too small to
include that right now.

Other concern is wind Sunday. Mixing up to about 5-6K feet AGL
will result in some wnw or nw gusts around 25 kts.

KMSP...two main concerns, both midday and afternoon Sunday. Winds
will rev up during the midday hours and there is some chance gusts
will exceed the 25 knots currently in the taf. Other issue is a
small chance of showers and maybe even thunder tomorrow
afternoon, but right now the probability is too small to include
in the taf.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272052
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
352 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight then showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday. A few storms may be strong Sunday.

A closed upper-level low was centered over central Manitoba this
afternoon with three distinct vorticity maxima observed by water
vapor imagery. Self-destructive sunshine in north-central
Minnesota this morning and early this afternoon has supported the
development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Expect the showers/ storms to increase in coverage through early
evening and gradually diminish tonight with the loss of daytime
heating. Sharp 850 mb height falls are expected overnight as the
vort max over southwest Manitoba rotates into northern Minnesota
tonight. The shower coverage should increase once again late
tonight as the trough moves across northern Minnesota.
Temperatures tonight will dip in to the upper 30s in portions of
northern Minnesota to near 50 degrees in the Brainerd Lakes and
locales from Spooner to Phillips, WI.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected. The shortwave trough and initial
vort max will push through northwest Wisconsin during the morning
with a few showers possible. Skies will clear behind the morning
precipitation yielding increased insolation and warming
temperatures. The combination of early morning precip and heating
should result in MLCAPE values of 750-1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear
is somewhat limited, between 25 and 30 knots in the 0-6 km layer.
However, with continued cool advection aloft and modest
instability, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in northwest
Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. Frequent lightning, brief heavy
downpours, and hail up to penny size are possible with the
strongest storms. Anyone with outdoor plans is encouraged to keep
up with the forecast during the day and be aware of the nearest
shelter should storms threaten. Highs will reach the middle 60s in
north-central Minnesota to near 70 degrees in our southern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Much of the long term period will be dominated by a massive upper
level low that will establish itself over the Great Lakes region.
Scattered showers will be common across the Northland from Sunday
night into Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially Sunday evening and Monday afternoon, and due to the
cold air aloft, perhaps some small hail. The chance of showers
should diminish considerably by Tuesday night, although cannot
rule out a few showers on Wednesday. Have kept it out of the grids
for now, but may need to add some diurnally driven showers for
Wednesday afternoon in the Minnesota Arrowhead and northern
Wisconsin. High pressure will build in for the end of the work
week, but northwest flow will continue into Thursday or Thursday
night. Heights are then expected to build at the end of the work
week and into the first part of the weekend. The ECMWF and GFS do
show some dramatic differences at that range, so will carry small
POP`s but confidence is lower. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be
limited to the 50`s due to showers and fairly abundant cloud
cover. By Wednesday, temperatures should return to the 60`s, with
70s for the last portion of the work week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler at times near Lake Superior, as is
typical this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions expected for this afternoon and into tonight. A
trough will begin to move in from the west later this afternoon,
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but this activity
is expected to remain west of the terminals. Clouds will work in
overnight and Sunday morning bringing some MVFR ceilings. Showers
will also be possible Sunday morning across the Minnesota
terminals. West to southwest winds will be seen this afternoon
with some gusts to 15 to 20 mph before diminishing this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  66  46  57 /  30  50  30  40
INL  45  64  47  54 /  40  50  50  60
BRD  50  69  49  58 /  30  40  40  30
HYR  49  71  47  59 /  20  40  30  40
ASX  50  69  47  59 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...BJH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 272009
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
309 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A band of fgen to the northwest of an MCV going across IA has a
band of light rain working up into the southern Twin Cities metro
this afternoon. This will likely spread into the Eau Claire area
through the afternoon, but dry air below 8k feet may result in
more virga/sprinkles as opposed to measurable rain, so kept PoPs
confined to no high than the 30s.

For tonight, guidance last night showed another fgen band
developing over north central IA and building toward western WI
for tonight, but guidance this morning as really backed off on
this band of precip, pushing it southeast as strong convection
getting going down in the Ozarks that will spread toward the
Tennessee Valley will help keep the southern forcing to the south.

We are also watching northern stream energy moving south across
Saskatchewan on the southwest side of an h5 low centered over
northern Manitoba. Guidance has slowed how fast this northern
stream energy gets here tomorrow, with popup afternoon showers
Sunday looking to stay confined to mainly central MN and NW WI, so
did reduce PoPs tomorrow south of I-94. In fact, Sunday really is
not looking all that bad. NAM shows us mixing a bit above 800mb,
which will ensure frequent gusts up around 25 mph by the
afternoon, but other than that, we should see a fair amount of sun
and mixing up to h8 will allow us to warm comfortably into the
upper 60s to lower 70s, so we should put together one more nice
day Sunday before we finally turn cooler, cloudier, and showerier
for Memorial Day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Not much change in the extended period with a cool period from
Sunday night through Wednesday, with a moderating trend by late in
the week, and into next weekend.

First, instability showers will form across Minnesota, and into
western Wisconsin Monday afternoon. The core of the coldest air
will move overhead Monday night, and into Tuesday before slowly
retreating to the east by midweek. Typically, the best time period
for showers/thunderstorms will occur during the mid/late afternoon
hours which will likely be the case Monday/Tuesday. Most of the
models depict the deepest moisture associated with the upper low
across northern/eastern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. This is
also where the best chance of showers/thunderstorms will occur.
Further to the southwest in west central/southwest/south central
Minnesota, moisture depth is shallower keeping any threat on the
development of showers/thunderstorms to a minimum. Temperatures
will reflect the cooler air mass and relatively low chance of
sunshine. Upper 50s/lower 60s seem reasonable both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, with the best chance of holding in the 50s in
central Minnesota on both days.

The mean upper air pattern will slowly become more supportive of a
warming trend by the end of the week as the persistent upper
trough moves further to the east across eastern Canada. Although
it doesn`t look like above normal temperatures past next week,
humidity levels should begin to rise as a more southerly flow
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Band of rain south of MSP has been holding together better than
expected, but see it remaining just south of MSP. May hold
together enough to make it into EAU around 20z, but not overly
confident the forcing will hang together to allow it to reach
there. After this, the next potential shot of showers comes
between 6z and 12z up between AXN and STC as shortwave currently
over SW Saskatchewan rotates into central MN. This is a low
confidence/low coverage scenario, so have kept those TAFs dry.
Otherwise, only area where models look to be a bit underdone is
with wind potential tomorrow, with mixing up over h8, some gusts
up around 30 kts look possible by the afternoon in MN.

KMSP...Rain just south of the field may through a sprinkle or two
to the ground through 20z, but would be of little impact, so kept
going trend in the TAF. Expect coverage of diurnal shower
activity Sunday to be in central/northern MN, so have kept the TAF
dry.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271809
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A band of fgen to the northwest of an MCV going across IA has a
band of light rain working up into the southern Twin Cities metro
this afternoon. This will likely spread into the Eau Claire area
through the afternoon, but dry air below 8k feet may result in
more virga/sprinkles as opposed to measurable rain, so kept PoPs
confined to no high than the 30s.

For tonight, guidance last night showed another fgen band
developing over north central IA and building toward western WI
for tonight, but guidance this morning as really backed off on
this band of precip, pushing it southeast as strong convection
getting going down in the Ozarks that will spread toward the
Tennessee Valley will help keep the southern forcing to the south.

We are also watching northern stream energy moving south across
Saskatchewan on the southwest side of an h5 low centered over
northern Manitoba. Guidance has slowed how fast this northern
stream energy gets here tomorrow, with popup afternoon showers
Sunday looking to stay confined to mainly central MN and NW WI, so
did reduce PoPs tomorrow south of I-94. In fact, Sunday really is
not looking all that bad. NAM shows us mixing a bit above 800mb,
which will ensure frequent gusts up around 25 mph by the
afternoon, but other than that, we should see a fair amount of sun
and mixing up to h8 will allow us to warm comfortably into the
upper 60s to lower 70s, so we should put together one more nice
day Sunday before we finally turn cooler, cloudier, and showerier
for Memorial Day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

No significant changes to the long term forecast. An upper level
trough will drive low level cold air advection through latter half
of the holiday weekend bringing northwest winds and temperatures in
the 60s for Monday through Wednesday. A few showers are possible as
well during this time frame as the cold air aloft together with late
May surface heating leads to some deeper cumulus development and
rain showers.

Looking ahead, the cold air departs the region on Wednesday, with
southerly flow returning Wednesday night into Thursday. This will
bring 70s back across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Forecast temperatures
may be too cool on Thursday as we currently sit on the cool side of
guidance. Friday looks to be warm as well, but there could be some
convection along a warm front that is forecast to lift northward
across the Upper Midwest, so did not adjust temperatures from the
blended guidance. As of now, seasonable weather looks to return for
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Band of rain south of MSP has been holding together better than
expected, but see it remaining just south of MSP. May hold
together enough to make it into EAU around 20z, but not overly
confident the forcing will hang together to allow it to reach
there. After this, the next potential shot of showers comes
between 6z and 12z up between AXN and STC as shortwave currently
over SW Saskatchewan rotates into central MN. This is a low
confidence/low coverage scenario, so have kept those TAFs dry.
Otherwise, only area where models look to be a bit underdone is
with wind potential tomorrow, with mixing up over h8, some gusts
up around 30 kts look possible by the afternoon in MN.

KMSP...Rain just south of the field may through a sprinkle or two
to the ground through 20z, but would be of little impact, so kept
going trend in the TAF. Expect coverage of diurnal shower
activity Sunday to be in central/northern MN, so have kept the TAF
dry.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc -shra. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271743 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The Northland can expect warm weather today. West-southwest flow
will develop as an upper-level trough approaches from the west.
While mid to upper level cloud cover will spread through the
region this morning and early afternoon, there should be better
sunshine later this afternoon. Temperatures will likely climb into
the lower 70s for much of the region. Low chances of showers and
weak storms are forecast for the northwest forecast area very late
this afternoon and this evening when a cool front approaches the
region.

The cool front and a more potent upper-level trough will move
through the Northland tonight and Sunday. This will bring chances
of showers. The best chances will be late Sunday morning and
Sunday afternoon because of the widespread instability likely to
develop in the cool west-northwest flow. Daytime heating should
result in scattered showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms
for Sunday. There could be up to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE,
but the threat of strong storms will be hampered by the lack of
deep layer shear. Brief small hail is possible, though, with the
stronger storms. High temperatures should range from the upper 60s
in northwest Wisconsin to the low 60s in the northwest forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

An upper level low over northwest Ontario Sunday evening will
move slowly toward northern Lake Superior by Monday evening. A
shortwave will move around the low and continue to bring a chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northland Sunday night
into Monday. Chances for rain will be highest over far northern
Minnesota. The low will deepen some as it reforms just west of
Hudson Bay on Tuesday. A couple more shortwaves will affect the
area Monday night into Tuesday evening keeping the chance for
showers going for most areas. Widespread heavy rainfall will be
unlikely Sunday night through Tuesday evening.

A relatively dry period is then expected Wednesday through Friday
under northwest flow aloft. A low level ridge will also be moving
over the region by late in the week. There may be a period of low
coverage light showers during the mid to late week time but no
significant rainfall is expected.

High temperatures will start off cool with highs Monday and
Tuesday in the mid fifties to around sixty. Temperatures will then
gradually warm through the week reaching the upper sixties to
lower seventies by Friday. As temperatures warm late week the flow
will switch to off of Lake Superior keeping those areas cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions expected for this afternoon and into tonight. A
trough will begin to move in from the west later this afternoon,
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but this activity
is expected to remain west of the terminals. Clouds will work in
overnight and Sunday morning bringing some MVFR ceilings. Showers
will also be possible Sunday morning across the Minnesota
terminals. West to southwest winds will be seen this afternoon
with some gusts to 15 to 20 mph before diminishing this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  47  64  46 /  10  20  50  50
INL  71  46  62  46 /  20  30  60  60
BRD  74  49  67  49 /  10  30  40  40
HYR  73  47  68  47 /  10  10  50  40
ASX  71  48  67  47 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...BJH




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