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000
FXUS63 KDLH 231132
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The area remains in a very summer like pattern, pinched between a
large trough out over the far western CONUS, and ridging just
east of the Mississippi river valley, with then troughing within
which are embedded hurricane Maria and the remnants of hurricane
Jose. This pattern is expected to continue through the next 36
hours. This pattern will bring warm and relatively humid
conditions to the area with waves of showers and thunderstorms
moving across the forecast area. Some of these waves will be more
active than others. Our main show of the night with the best upper
level support and mid level is now up in Canada, but we have a
somewhat secondary wave that developed over central Minnesota.
This wave is in the plume of best moisture and is in the low level
jet, but there is less support at the mid and upper levels for
stronger convection. However, it has produced a decent area of
showers and thunderstorms and have kept fairly high pops for the
remaining early morning hours going. Today this wave will continue
off to the northeast, likely dissipating during the morning
hours. It should be followed by a lull in the convection before
another wave of storms move through mainly Minnesota this evening.
Sunday morning there should be another lull, only to be followed
by another round of showers and storms in the afternoon and
evening for mainly northwest and north central Minnesota. This
pattern is also going to keep temperatures on the warm and humid
side, with cloud cover keeping a lid on things, and have kept
mostly to the consensus through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The persistent southwest flow pattern across the central United
States will finally break down next week leading to near to below
normal temperatures returning after a warm weekend. Precipitation
chances continue through Tuesday as the main longwave mid-level
trough exits across the region, then a break in the precip on
Wednesday. However, with northwest flow developing in the wake of
the mid-level trough a low chance for light rain showers returns
late-week.

On the synoptic scale a mid-level ridge parked over the lower Great
Lakes region and a slow-moving deep longwave trough over western
states has resulted in a persistent southwest flow pattern at
mid/upper levels across the Great Plains through the weekend into
early next week. The Upper Midwest will remain within the warm
sector ahead of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary parked along
this southwest flow pattern through Monday before the front finally
pushes east Tuesday. Once the front moves through Wednesday cooler
air will move in from the northwest with at least partially clearing
skies expected. Late week a fast-moving clipper-like mid-level
shortwave trough will approach the region leading to a chance for
light rain showers. Highs in the 50s to around 60 Wed-Thurs-Fri with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Broad area of high pressure
building in late-week should result in clearing skies, which could
result in a widespread frost/freeze.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Mainly VFR conditions today, with IFR ceilings developing at some
northern Minnesota sites tonight. Chances for showers/storms
linger through the day today in northern Minnesota, mainly in the
afternoon hours. Tonight ceilings lower at HIB, INL, and BRD to
IFR or LIFR, with these low ceilings persisting overnight. DLH
should manage to remain VFR through the TAF period, except for
MVFR ceilings if storms approach this afternoon, with MVFR fog
possible this evening. VFR at HYR through the period. West-
southwest winds today becoming more northeasterly tonight,
generally light around 12 knots or less outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  60  78  59 /  50  60  10  60
INL  63  53  69  50 /  30  90  60  70
BRD  70  60  79  55 /  70  60  30  70
HYR  85  65  85  63 /  10  10  10  30
ASX  86  61  85  62 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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000
FXUS63 KMPX 231042
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
542 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

As of 3AM this morning, the Twin Cities was still 81 degrees and
much of southern MN and western WI were in the mid to upper 70s.
However, the front has made its way into western Minnesota, where
continuous showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing through the
overnight hours.  The front was positioned from just east of
Alexandria through the southwest corner of the state.

This front will continue to be the key factor for our weather the
next few days.  The first surface low has passed to our north with
the second developing across eastern Colorado and hence a frontal
boundary connecting the two.  The front will remain mostly
stationary from its current position today, meaning western MN will
continue to see chances for showers and thunderstorms, and highs
limited to the 60s west of the boundary.  East of the boundary will
likely be dry today, with southerly winds and highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s.  Dew points in the warm sector will once again be
around 70 degrees.  The thermal ridge won`t be as strong as
yesterday, so expect temperatures a few degrees cooler, but will
still yield apparent temperatures in the 90-95 degree range across
eastern and south central MN, as western WI as well.

The upper jet will strengthen north of the Dakotas later today and
the flow will become more amplified with time.  This will begin
pulling the frontal boundary back northwest, so expect the Dakotas
to light up with widespread precipitation by this evening.  The main
change for us was to push pops back farther west tonight as the
front looks to move back into the Dakotas, which will bring
southerly flow back across the entire forecast area overnight, while
the vast majority of the precip will be amidst the large scale
forcing behind the front.  So, don`t be surprised if eastern MN
including the Twin Cities sees no precipitation through at least
tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The main forecast concern in the extended period is timing of the
precipitation late Sunday/Monday, and how long will it last early
next week.

First, models are fairly consistent on weakening the upper ridge
over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley late Sunday. This will allow for
the mean trough out west to slowly lift and move northeastward. This
will also allow for the surface cold front to finally move eastward
across the Upper Midwest late Sunday. Sunday remains very warm and
humid for the eastern 1/2 of MPX forecast area. Highs in the 80s
will be common with heat indices once again near 90 to 95 degrees.
Contrast this to western Minnesota where periods of showers and
thunderstorms will keep temperatures in the 50s/60s. It still looks
reasonable for excessive rainfall in portions of west
central/central Minnesota as several waves of precipitation are
expected. See the latest WPC outlook for flooding potential.

Once the mean trough weakens and lifts to the northeast across the
Northern Plains, the surface front will begin to move east. This
will lead to showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous in
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin late Sunday night/Monday.
Depending upon how fast the mean long wave trough moves northeast
across the Northern Plains, and the mean flow becomes
west/northwest, will determine how fast the precipitation exits
Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. The best time frame will be
western Minnesota by Monday morning, and eastern Minnesota by
Tuesday morning. West central Wisconsin may have showers/storms
linger until Tuesday night.

By midweek, the mean upper flow becomes north/northwest. This will
usher in the coldest air mass since last Spring. Highs in the
40s/50s in the north, with 50s/60s in the south look reasonable for
Wednesday/Thursday and Friday. Depending upon the amount of cloud
cover and surface wind speeds late in the week, will determine if
frost is possible in portions of central/southern Minnesota, as
well as western Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Frontal boundary currently across western MN is the main driver
today, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected along and
west of it, which will impact AXN and RWF, and possibly STC.
Northwest winds behind the front, but S to SE winds remain east of
the front. The front will sag slightly southeast during the day
before reversing course and pushing back west. Do not expect it to
reach MSP during this period, but winds could become variable at
STC. IFR or MVFR cigs likely near and behind the front.

KMSP...Expecting precip activity to stay to the west and northwest
of MSP, closer to the frontal boundary.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Tue...Chc MVFR/TSRA early. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230858
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
358 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

As of 3AM this morning, the Twin Cities was still 81 degrees and
much of southern MN and western WI were in the mid to upper 70s.
However, the front has made its way into western Minnesota, where
continuous showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing through the
overnight hours.  The front was positioned from just east of
Alexandria through the southwest corner of the state.

This front will continue to be the key factor for our weather the
next few days.  The first surface low has passed to our north with
the second developing across eastern Colorado and hence a frontal
boundary connecting the two.  The front will remain mostly
stationary from its current position today, meaning western MN will
continue to see chances for showers and thunderstorms, and highs
limited to the 60s west of the boundary.  East of the boundary will
likely be dry today, with southerly winds and highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s.  Dew points in the warm sector will once again be
around 70 degrees.  The thermal ridge won`t be as strong as
yesterday, so expect temperatures a few degrees cooler, but will
still yield apparent temperatures in the 90-95 degree range across
eastern and south central MN, as western WI as well.

The upper jet will strengthen north of the Dakotas later today and
the flow will become more amplified with time.  This will begin
pulling the frontal boundary back northwest, so expect the Dakotas
to light up with widespread precipitation by this evening.  The main
change for us was to push pops back farther west tonight as the
front looks to move back into the Dakotas, which will bring
southerly flow back across the entire forecast area overnight, while
the vast majority of the precip will be amidst the large scale
forcing behind the front.  So, don`t be surprised if eastern MN
including the Twin Cities sees no precipitation through at least
tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The main forecast concern in the extended period is timing of the
precipitation late Sunday/Monday, and how long will it last early
next week.

First, models are fairly consistent on weakening the upper ridge
over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley late Sunday. This will allow for
the mean trough out west to slowly lift and move northeastward. This
will also allow for the surface cold front to finally move eastward
across the Upper Midwest late Sunday. Sunday remains very warm and
humid for the eastern 1/2 of MPX forecast area. Highs in the 80s
will be common with heat indices once again near 90 to 95 degrees.
Contrast this to western Minnesota where periods of showers and
thunderstorms will keep temperatures in the 50s/60s. It still looks
reasonable for excessive rainfall in portions of west
central/central Minnesota as several waves of precipitation are
expected. See the latest WPC outlook for flooding potential.

Once the mean trough weakens and lifts to the northeast across the
Northern Plains, the surface front will begin to move east. This
will lead to showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous in
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin late Sunday night/Monday.
Depending upon how fast the mean long wave trough moves northeast
across the Northern Plains, and the mean flow becomes
west/northwest, will determine how fast the precipitation exits
Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. The best time frame will be
western Minnesota by Monday morning, and eastern Minnesota by
Tuesday morning. West central Wisconsin may have showers/storms
linger until Tuesday night.

By midweek, the mean upper flow becomes north/northwest. This will
usher in the coldest air mass since last Spring. Highs in the
40s/50s in the north, with 50s/60s in the south look reasonable for
Wednesday/Thursday and Friday. Depending upon the amount of cloud
cover and surface wind speeds late in the week, will determine if
frost is possible in portions of central/southern Minnesota, as
well as western Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period, except at AXN where
MVFR and possibly IFR cigs arrive behind the cold front late
tonight and Saturday. Thunderstorms will become more numerous
across western MN this evening, impacting only AXN. Wind shear
will develop mid evening with a strong 50+ kt jet streak around
2kft.

KMSP...VFR expected. TS/SHRA activity expected to stay to the
west through Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Tue...Chc MVFR/TSRA early. Winds NW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 230832
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
332 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The area remains in a very summer like pattern, pinched between a
large trough out over the far western CONUS, and ridging just
east of the Mississippi river valley, with then troughing within
which are embedded hurricane Maria and the remnants of hurricane
Jose. This pattern is expected to continue through the next 36
hours. This pattern will bring warm and relatively humid
conditions to the area with waves of showers and thunderstorms
moving across the forecast area. Some of these waves will be more
active than others. Our main show of the night with the best upper
level support and mid level is now up in Canada, but we have a
somewhat secondary wave that developed over central Minnesota.
This wave is in the plume of best moisture and is in the low level
jet, but there is less support at the mid and upper levels for
stronger convection. However, it has produced a decent area of
showers and thunderstorms and have kept fairly high pops for the
remaining early morning hours going. Today this wave will continue
off to the northeast, likely dissipating during the morning
hours. It should be followed by a lull in the convection before
another wave of storms move through mainly Minnesota this evening.
Sunday morning there should be another lull, only to be followed
by another round of showers and storms in the afternoon and
evening for mainly northwest and north central Minnesota. This
pattern is also going to keep temperatures on the warm and humid
side, with cloud cover keeping a lid on things, and have kept
mostly to the consensus through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The persistent southwest flow pattern across the central United
States will finally break down next week leading to near to below
normal temperatures returning after a warm weekend. Precipitation
chances continue through Tuesday as the main longwave mid-level
trough exits across the region, then a break in the precip on
Wednesday. However, with northwest flow developing in the wake of
the mid-level trough a low chance for light rain showers returns
late-week.

On the synoptic scale a mid-level ridge parked over the lower Great
Lakes region and a slow-moving deep longwave trough over western
states has resulted in a persistent southwest flow pattern at
mid/upper levels across the Great Plains through the weekend into
early next week. The Upper Midwest will remain within the warm
sector ahead of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary parked along
this southwest flow pattern through Monday before the front finally
pushes east Tuesday. Once the front moves through Wednesday cooler
air will move in from the northwest with at least partially clearing
skies expected. Late week a fast-moving clipper-like mid-level
shortwave trough will approach the region leading to a chance for
light rain showers. Highs in the 50s to around 60 Wed-Thurs-Fri with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Broad area of high pressure
building in late-week should result in clearing skies, which could
result in a widespread frost/freeze.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

In northeast Minnesota...VFR conditions will persist through much
of today with ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR tonight. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible within the next few hours early
this morning then again during the day. South-southwest winds
today, gusty this morning then not as strong during the day around
10 knots or less. Decreasing ceilings tonight will lead to IFR or
worse conditions in some locations across northern Minnesota.

In northwest Wisconsin...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period at HYR with occasional mid to high level clouds and
light south to southeast winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  60  78  59 /  50  60  10  60
INL  63  53  69  50 /  30  90  60  70
BRD  70  60  79  55 /  70  60  30  70
HYR  85  65  85  63 /  10  10  10  30
ASX  86  61  85  62 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 230512
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as
we continue to be under a very warm and unstable air mass. Not
much change from yesterday`s corresponding model runs as we remain
under southwest flow aloft due to a longwave trough over the
Intermountain West states. This flow will enhance isentropic
upglide as well, providing large-scale support for this activity.
At the sfc, an area of low pressure currently located over
northeast South Dakota will continue to advance northeastward into
north-central Minnesota by this evening. Ahead of the system, we
will continue to see southerly flow, bringing very warm and moist
air into the region. Low-level theta-e advection will become
enhanced once again tonight as a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet looks
to reintensify overnight. Pwat values will increase into the 1.5"
to 1.9" range, per the 22.12z GFS and NAM models. The NAEFS
climatological anomalies indicates these values are >99% of
climatology, so heavy rainfall will be possible with this
activity. The low pressure system will bring with it a sharp
baroclinic zone, which will act as the focal point for tonight`s
activity, which is expected to develop over north-central
Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe
weather over north-central Minnesota with these thunderstorms,
over Koochiching and Itasca counties. A Marginal Risk of severe
weather has been issued for the rest of the Northland. The main
threats will be large hail and damaging winds, with a small chance
for a tornado as well as better helicity will be in place over
the Slight Risk area.

This activity won`t be moving much as the stationary boundary
associated with the baroclinic zone moves slightly eastward, so
chances of showers and storms will continue through the day
Saturday. Much like yesterday, there are some timing and coverage
difference between the convective-allowing models, so input more
scattered showers and storms for Saturday due to the lack of
higher confidence in the areal coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Not much change from the prior forecast as the blocking ridge will
be near the East Coast Saturday night and finally drift offshore by
Monday night. This allows the unseasonable long wave trof to move
from the Rockies Saturday night, to the forecast area by Tuesday. The
warm, southerly flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to
ride northward ahead of this trof. Embedded impulses in the fast
southerly flow will be difficult to time across the region, but pops
will be in place with highest potential closes to the trof and its
associated quasi-stationary surface front. Thermodynamic profiles
also suggest the best location for thunder will be along the front
through Monday evening. Not anticipating any flooding issues as
current QPF indicates the highest amounts will fall over an area
where abnormally dry to drought conditions exit. This would be over
Koochiching, Itasca and Cass counties. By Tuesday, the long wave
trof will have merged with a short wave trof that arrives Tuesday
night. The rain chances will be diminishing through Tuesday night. A
pattern change will take place Wednesday into Thursday as a
northwest flow begins to overtake the forecast area. This will bring
much cooler and drier air into the region. However, will still be
able to generate some showers with more embedded impulses crossing
the area. With less moisture, smaller pops will be in play. Temps
will be above normal at the start of the long term, and cool to near
normal Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

In northeast Minnesota...VFR conditions will persist through much
of today with ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR tonight. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible within the next few hours early
this morning then again during the day. South-southwest winds
today, gusty this morning then not as strong during the day around
10 knots or less. Decreasing ceilings tonight will lead to IFR or
worse conditions in some locations across northern Minnesota.

In northwest Wisconsin...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period at HYR with occasional mid to high level clouds and
light south to southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  78  60  76 /  30  50  50  40
INL  60  63  54  64 /  50  50  80  70
BRD  64  71  60  74 /  50  60  60  50
HYR  69  84  65  83 /  10  30  30  20
ASX  67  85  62  83 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 230512
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as
we continue to be under a very warm and unstable air mass. Not
much change from yesterday`s corresponding model runs as we remain
under southwest flow aloft due to a longwave trough over the
Intermountain West states. This flow will enhance isentropic
upglide as well, providing large-scale support for this activity.
At the sfc, an area of low pressure currently located over
northeast South Dakota will continue to advance northeastward into
north-central Minnesota by this evening. Ahead of the system, we
will continue to see southerly flow, bringing very warm and moist
air into the region. Low-level theta-e advection will become
enhanced once again tonight as a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet looks
to reintensify overnight. Pwat values will increase into the 1.5"
to 1.9" range, per the 22.12z GFS and NAM models. The NAEFS
climatological anomalies indicates these values are >99% of
climatology, so heavy rainfall will be possible with this
activity. The low pressure system will bring with it a sharp
baroclinic zone, which will act as the focal point for tonight`s
activity, which is expected to develop over north-central
Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe
weather over north-central Minnesota with these thunderstorms,
over Koochiching and Itasca counties. A Marginal Risk of severe
weather has been issued for the rest of the Northland. The main
threats will be large hail and damaging winds, with a small chance
for a tornado as well as better helicity will be in place over
the Slight Risk area.

This activity won`t be moving much as the stationary boundary
associated with the baroclinic zone moves slightly eastward, so
chances of showers and storms will continue through the day
Saturday. Much like yesterday, there are some timing and coverage
difference between the convective-allowing models, so input more
scattered showers and storms for Saturday due to the lack of
higher confidence in the areal coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Not much change from the prior forecast as the blocking ridge will
be near the East Coast Saturday night and finally drift offshore by
Monday night. This allows the unseasonable long wave trof to move
from the Rockies Saturday night, to the forecast area by Tuesday. The
warm, southerly flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to
ride northward ahead of this trof. Embedded impulses in the fast
southerly flow will be difficult to time across the region, but pops
will be in place with highest potential closes to the trof and its
associated quasi-stationary surface front. Thermodynamic profiles
also suggest the best location for thunder will be along the front
through Monday evening. Not anticipating any flooding issues as
current QPF indicates the highest amounts will fall over an area
where abnormally dry to drought conditions exit. This would be over
Koochiching, Itasca and Cass counties. By Tuesday, the long wave
trof will have merged with a short wave trof that arrives Tuesday
night. The rain chances will be diminishing through Tuesday night. A
pattern change will take place Wednesday into Thursday as a
northwest flow begins to overtake the forecast area. This will bring
much cooler and drier air into the region. However, will still be
able to generate some showers with more embedded impulses crossing
the area. With less moisture, smaller pops will be in play. Temps
will be above normal at the start of the long term, and cool to near
normal Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

In northeast Minnesota...VFR conditions will persist through much
of today with ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR tonight. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible within the next few hours early
this morning then again during the day. South-southwest winds
today, gusty this morning then not as strong during the day around
10 knots or less. Decreasing ceilings tonight will lead to IFR or
worse conditions in some locations across northern Minnesota.

In northwest Wisconsin...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period at HYR with occasional mid to high level clouds and
light south to southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  78  60  76 /  30  50  50  40
INL  60  63  54  64 /  50  50  80  70
BRD  64  71  60  74 /  50  60  60  50
HYR  69  84  65  83 /  10  30  30  20
ASX  67  85  62  83 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230359 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1059 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Thought about extending the Heat Advisory for metro counties
through Saturday with heat indices possibly in the mid 90s again
and also sultry lows in the mid 70s tonight. However,
temperatures aloft won`t be nearly as impressive as today, there
will be more cloud cover, and the risk of outflows from the west
could negatively impact max heating. Will allow the current
advisory to expire at 7 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The surface cold front is knocking on our doorstep late this
afternoon, with the thermal ridge ahead of it producing near-
record temps/dewpoints and attendant widespread heat indices in
the upper 90s to lower 100s across central/southern MN into west
central WI. As the low level jet re-intensifies tonight, expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop over far western Minnesota in
the vicinity of the front. As the front meanders slowly eastward
on Saturday, precipitation chances will inch toward central MN
throughout the day. With precipitable water values also nearing
record values, heavy rainfall will be of concern over western MN
given the front will be nearly stationary. Given east/south
central MN into west central WI will go most of the diurnal
heating period precip-free with decent mixing, expect highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, temps over the western
forecast area will likely only moderate about 5 degrees (into the
mid 60s to lower 70s).

There will also be a small threat for severe storms Saturday
afternoon and early eve given the abundant moisture combined with
deep layer shear progged around 30 knots, although the fact that
the stronger flow aloft is displaced from the frontal boundary,
expect the threat to remain marginal in nature.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

In the big picture, we`ll see the western trough ever so slowly
shift eastward over the weekend, with its associated frontal
boundary grudgingly moving along with it. With the heart of the
thermal ridge a bit farther east and more in the way of cloud cover,
we will be a bit cooler (but still well above normal) on Sunday. The
upper trough will work into the area for the first half of the week,
then we`ll start to shift into northwest flow by the end of the week
as ridging starts to develop over the western US.

Most of the precipitation with the frontal boundary to our west
looks to occur along and west of the front, meaning it will mainly
be the western and northwest portion of the area that will be
impacted through the weekend. We could see some activity as far east
as the Twin Cities metro, but it would be limited, with most of the
weekend looking dry from near I-35 eastward. The front will finally
move eastward Sunday night and Monday, bringing its shield of
showers and some embedded thunder along with it. We should see
precipitation end from west to east Monday night and Tuesday as the
frontal boundary moves into the eastern Great Lakes and high
pressure works into our area. Things look mainly dry through the
remainder of the week with temperatures near or slightly below
normal. The main chance of any precipitation after Tuesday looks to
be Thursday into Friday when we`ll see a cold front bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air, then wind up beneath the upper cold
pool while cyclonic flow lingers over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period, except at AXN where
MVFR and possibly IFR cigs arrive behind the cold front late
tonight and Saturday. Thunderstorms will become more numerous
across western MN this evening, impacting only AXN. Wind shear
will develop mid evening with a strong 50+ kt jet streak around
2kft.

KMSP...VFR expected. TS/SHRA activity expected to stay to the
west through Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Tue...Chc MVFR/TSRA early. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 222352 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Thought about extending the Heat Advisory for metro counties
through Saturday with heat indices possibly in the mid 90s again
and also sultry lows in the mid 70s tonight. However,
temperatures aloft won`t be nearly as impressive as today, there
will be more cloud cover, and the risk of outflows from the west
could negatively impact max heating. Will allow the current
advisory to expire at 7 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The surface cold front is knocking on our doorstep late this
afternoon, with the thermal ridge ahead of it producing near-
record temps/dewpoints and attendant widespread heat indices in
the upper 90s to lower 100s across central/southern MN into west
central WI. As the low level jet re-intensifies tonight, expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop over far western Minnesota in
the vicinity of the front. As the front meanders slowly eastward
on Saturday, precipitation chances will inch toward central MN
throughout the day. With precipitable water values also nearing
record values, heavy rainfall will be of concern over western MN
given the front will be nearly stationary. Given east/south
central MN into west central WI will go most of the diurnal
heating period precip-free with decent mixing, expect highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, temps over the western
forecast area will likely only moderate about 5 degrees (into the
mid 60s to lower 70s).

There will also be a small threat for severe storms Saturday
afternoon and early eve given the abundant moisture combined with
deep layer shear progged around 30 knots, although the fact that
the stronger flow aloft is displaced from the frontal boundary,
expect the threat to remain marginal in nature.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

In the big picture, we`ll see the western trough ever so slowly
shift eastward over the weekend, with its associated frontal
boundary grudgingly moving along with it. With the heart of the
thermal ridge a bit farther east and more in the way of cloud cover,
we will be a bit cooler (but still well above normal) on Sunday. The
upper trough will work into the area for the first half of the week,
then we`ll start to shift into northwest flow by the end of the week
as ridging starts to develop over the western US.

Most of the precipitation with the frontal boundary to our west
looks to occur along and west of the front, meaning it will mainly
be the western and northwest portion of the area that will be
impacted through the weekend. We could see some activity as far east
as the Twin Cities metro, but it would be limited, with most of the
weekend looking dry from near I-35 eastward. The front will finally
move eastward Sunday night and Monday, bringing its shield of
showers and some embedded thunder along with it. We should see
precipitation end from west to east Monday night and Tuesday as the
frontal boundary moves into the eastern Great Lakes and high
pressure works into our area. Things look mainly dry through the
remainder of the week with temperatures near or slightly below
normal. The main chance of any precipitation after Tuesday looks to
be Thursday into Friday when we`ll see a cold front bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air, then wind up beneath the upper cold
pool while cyclonic flow lingers over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period, except at AXN where
MVFR and possibly IFR cigs arrive behind the cold front late
tonight and Saturday. Thunderstorms will become more numerous
across western MN this evening, impacting only AXN. Wind shear
will develop mid evening with a strong 50+ kt jet streak around
2kft.

KMSP...VFR expected. Low level wind shear tonight is the only
other concern, with TS/SHRA activity expected to stay to the west
through Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Tue...Chc MVFR/TSRA early. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ023>026-028.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ054-056>070-
     073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 222350
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
650 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as
we continue to be under a very warm and unstable air mass. Not
much change from yesterday`s corresponding model runs as we remain
under southwest flow aloft due to a longwave trough over the
Intermountain West states. This flow will enhance isentropic
upglide as well, providing large-scale support for this activity.
At the sfc, an area of low pressure currently located over
northeast South Dakota will continue to advance northeastward into
north-central Minnesota by this evening. Ahead of the system, we
will continue to see southerly flow, bringing very warm and moist
air into the region. Low-level theta-e advection will become
enhanced once again tonight as a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet looks
to reintensify overnight. Pwat values will increase into the 1.5"
to 1.9" range, per the 22.12z GFS and NAM models. The NAEFS
climatological anomalies indicates these values are >99% of
climatology, so heavy rainfall will be possible with this
activity. The low pressure system will bring with it a sharp
baroclinic zone, which will act as the focal point for tonight`s
activity, which is expected to develop over north-central
Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe
weather over north-central Minnesota with these thunderstorms,
over Koochiching and Itasca counties. A Marginal Risk of severe
weather has been issued for the rest of the Northland. The main
threats will be large hail and damaging winds, with a small chance
for a tornado as well as better helicity will be in place over
the Slight Risk area.

This activity won`t be moving much as the stationary boundary
associated with the baroclinic zone moves slightly eastward, so
chances of showers and storms will continue through the day
Saturday. Much like yesterday, there are some timing and coverage
difference between the convective-allowing models, so input more
scattered showers and storms for Saturday due to the lack of
higher confidence in the areal coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Not much change from the prior forecast as the blocking ridge will
be near the East Coast Saturday night and finally drift offshore by
Monday night. This allows the unseasonable long wave trof to move
from the Rockies Saturday night, to the forecast area by Tuesday. The
warm, southerly flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to
ride northward ahead of this trof. Embedded impulses in the fast
southerly flow will be difficult to time across the region, but pops
will be in place with highest potential closes to the trof and its
associated quasi-stationary surface front. Thermodynamic profiles
also suggest the best location for thunder will be along the front
through Monday evening. Not anticipating any flooding issues as
current QPF indicates the highest amounts will fall over an area
where abnormally dry to drought conditions exit. This would be over
Koochiching, Itasca and Cass counties. By Tuesday, the long wave
trof will have merged with a short wave trof that arrives Tuesday
night. The rain chances will be diminishing through Tuesday night. A
pattern change will take place Wednesday into Thursday as a
northwest flow begins to overtake the forecast area. This will bring
much cooler and drier air into the region. However, will still be
able to generate some showers with more embedded impulses crossing
the area. With less moisture, smaller pops will be in play. Temps
will be above normal at the start of the long term, and cool to near
normal Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

An area of low pressure and frontal boundary will bisect the
Northland throughout the TAF period. The result will be little to
no precipitation from east central Minnesota and the North Shore,
into northern Wisconsin. A much better chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be found across western locations of the
Northland, namely KINL and KHYR, and to some extent KBRD.
Southerly winds will be found ahead of the front, with north to
northeast winds behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  78  60  76 /  30  50  50  40
INL  60  63  54  64 /  50  50  80  70
BRD  64  71  60  74 /  50  60  60  50
HYR  69  84  65  83 /  10  30  30  20
ASX  69  85  62  83 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 222046
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
346 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The surface cold front is knocking on our doorstep late this
afternoon, with the thermal ridge ahead of it producing near-
record temps/dewpoints and attendant widespread heat indices in
the upper 90s to lower 100s across central/southern MN into west
central WI. As the low level jet re-intensifies tonight, expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop over far western Minnesota in
the vicinity of the front. As the front meanders slowly eastward
on Saturday, precipitation chances will inch toward central MN
throughout the day. With precipitable water values also nearing
record values, heavy rainfall will be of concern over western MN
given the front will be nearly stationary. Given east/south
central MN into west central WI will go most of the diurnal
heating period precip-free with decent mixing, expect highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, temps over the western
forecast area will likely only moderate about 5 degrees (into the
mid 60s to lower 70s).

There will also be a small threat for severe storms Saturday
afternoon and early eve given the abundant moisture combined with
deep layer shear progged around 30 knots, although the fact that
the stronger flow aloft is displaced from the frontal boundary,
expect the threat to remain marginal in nature.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

In the big picture, we`ll see the western trough ever so slowly
shift eastward over the weekend, with its associated frontal
boundary grudgingly moving along with it. With the heart of the
thermal ridge a bit farther east and more in the way of cloud cover,
we will be a bit cooler (but still well above normal) on Sunday. The
upper trough will work into the area for the first half of the week,
then we`ll start to shift into northwest flow by the end of the week
as ridging starts to develop over the western US.

Most of the precipitation with the frontal boundary to our west
looks to occur along and west of the front, meaning it will mainly
be the western and northwest portion of the area that will be
impacted through the weekend. We could see some activity as far east
as the Twin Cities metro, but it would be limited, with most of the
weekend looking dry from near I-35 eastward. The front will finally
move eastward Sunday night and Monday, bringing its shield of
showers and some embedded thunder along with it. We should see
precipitation end from west to east Monday night and Tuesday as the
frontal boundary moves into the eastern Great Lakes and high
pressure works into our area. Things look mainly dry through the
remainder of the week with temperatures near or slightly below
normal. The main chance of any precipitation after Tuesday looks to
be Thursday into Friday when we`ll see a cold front bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air, then wind up beneath the upper cold
pool while cyclonic flow lingers over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

We should be shower & thunderstorm-free through this eve now that
the nocturnally-driven activity has ended and the low/mid level
temperatures are building. Sct-bkn mid level clouds will be
around through most of the period. South/southeast winds will
become gusty this afternoon, then lose the gustiness this eve with
low level wind shear becoming a concern into the overnight hours
(for KSTC/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU). The cold front will be entering western
MN at 06z tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the
front late tonight into the early morning hours. Have maintained a
PROB30 at KAXN, but confidence/potential is too low to include at
other sites at this point. MVFR level cigs behind the front will
also be possible on Saturday, primarily at KAXN/KSTC during this
TAF period.

KMSP...
VFR expected through tomorrow morning with the potential for low-
end VFR clouds by 18z Saturday. Low level wind shear tonight is
the only other concern, with TS/SHRA activity expected to stay to
the west through Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Tue...Chc MVFR/TSRA early. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ023>026-028.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ054-056>070-
     073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 222002
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
302 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as
we continue to be under a very warm and unstable air mass. Not
much change from yesterday`s corresponding model runs as we remain
under southwest flow aloft due to a longwave trough over the
Intermountain West states. This flow will enhance isentropic
upglide as well, providing large-scale support for this activity.
At the sfc, an area of low pressure currently located over
northeast South Dakota will continue to advance northeastward into
north-central Minnesota by this evening. Ahead of the system, we
will continue to see southerly flow, bringing very warm and moist
air into the region. Low-level theta-e advection will become
enhanced once again tonight as a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet looks
to reintensify overnight. Pwat values will increase into the 1.5"
to 1.9" range, per the 22.12z GFS and NAM models. The NAEFS
climatological anomalies indicates these values are >99% of
climatology, so heavy rainfall will be possible with this
activity. The low pressure system will bring with it a sharp
baroclinic zone, which will act as the focal point for tonight`s
activity, which is expected to develop over north-central
Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe
weather over north-central Minnesota with these thunderstorms,
over Koochiching and Itasca counties. A Marginal Risk of severe
weather has been issued for the rest of the Northland. The main
threats will be large hail and damaging winds, with a small chance
for a tornado as well as better helicity will be in place over
the Slight Risk area.

This activity won`t be moving much as the stationary boundary
associated with the baroclinic zone moves slightly eastward, so
chances of showers and storms will continue through the day
Saturday. Much like yesterday, there are some timing and coverage
difference between the convective-allowing models, so input more
scattered showers and storms for Saturday due to the lack of
higher confidence in the areal coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Not much change from the prior forecast as the blocking ridge will
be near the East Coast Saturday night and finally drift offshore by
Monday night. This allows the unseasonable long wave trof to move
from the Rockies Saturday night, to the forecast area by Tuesday. The
warm, southerly flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to
ride northward ahead of this trof. Embedded impulses in the fast
southerly flow will be difficult to time across the region, but pops
will be in place with highest potential closes to the trof and its
associated quasi-stationary surface front. Thermodynamic profiles
also suggest the best location for thunder will be along the front
through Monday evening. Not anticipating any flooding issues as
current QPF indicates the highest amounts will fall over an area
where abnormally dry to drought conditions exit. This would be over
Koochiching, Itasca and Cass counties. By Tuesday, the long wave
trof will have merged with a short wave trof that arrives Tuesday
night. The rain chances will be diminishing through Tuesday night. A
pattern change will take place Wednesday into Thursday as a
northwest flow begins to overtake the forecast area. This will bring
much cooler and drier air into the region. However, will still be
able to generate some showers with more embedded impulses crossing
the area. With less moisture, smaller pops will be in play. Temps
will be above normal at the start of the long term, and cool to near
normal Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs were affecting the terminals at the
start of the forecast. With the moist southerly flow expected
through the forecast, will see periods of MVFR throughout. LLWS
will develop right around sunset and continue until near 12Z. Have
backed off on the mention of thunder at all sites but INL, where
they will likely see some storms in the vicinity from sunset
until near 08Z. Some IFR cigs with BR are possible at HIB/INL/BRD
late tonight and early Saturday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  78  60  76 /  30  50  50  40
INL  60  63  54  64 /  50  50  80  70
BRD  64  71  60  74 /  50  60  60  50
HYR  69  84  65  83 /  10  30  30  20
ASX  69  85  62  83 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221809
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
109 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...For 18z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

As of 3AM this morning, the warm front had lifted to the I-94
corridor from Alexandria toward St Cloud, with a mostly capped
environment in the warm sector.  However, accas was fairly
widespread across the state of Iowa and quickly advancing northward.
So, convection is trying across that region and a few cells have
overcome the cap but remain very isolated.

In the vicinity and north of the front though, more widespread
thunderstorms continue to develop early this morning. Expect storms
to move east through central MN through the mid morning hours.  The
warm front will lift north of the forecast area today, with a cap in
place through the day.  850mb temps will soar to near +25C by this
afternoon and southerly flow will bring winds of 15-20 with gusts to
30 MPH as the surface low works through the eastern Dakotas through
northern Minnesota tonight.  Still expect highs in the upper 80s and
low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s to make for apparent
temperatures in the upper 90s to about 100 degrees this afternoon.
Wet bulb globe temperatures look to reach the lower 80s this
afternoon across most of southern Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin.

The cold front will remain mainly to our west through the evening,
but will begin to encroach on western MN overnight.  With this
boundary comes our next chance of thunderstorm activity.  Due to the
SW to NE orientation of the front, the highest pops overnight are
across much of northern MN extending to the SW encompassing much of
western MN.  Expect eastern MN and western WI to remain dry
overnight with that front reaching western MN by 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Saturday/Saturday night will be wet across the northwestern 1/4 of
MPX forecast area. As with previous discussions, the abnormally
high PWAT values combined with a nearly stationary front, and several
rounds of thunderstorms, will lead to the potential of flooding.
Later shifts may need to see if a Flood Watch needs to be issued
in portions of west central/central Minnesota. Currently WPC has a
slight risk of excessive rainfall on Saturday/Sunday for portions
of west central/southwest and central Minnesota.

After Saturday night,

Although models /EC, GFS, GEM/ are similar in the evolution of the
break down of the upper ridge across the Great Lakes, and mean
trough over the western 1/4 of the CONUS by Sunday night, there
remains a few differences past Sunday.

First, how much energy is left in the Rockies once the mean trough
out west de-amplifies, and one of the short waves move across the
Northern Plains, Upper Midwest by Tuesday? Both the GFS/EC hold more
energy across the southern Rockies compared to the GEM. The GEM
keeps a more progressive long wave trough moving across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest by midweek. Although this is similar to the GFS
by late in the week, both these models have a more significant short
wave diving southeast across the Midwest compared to the EC. This
will have considerable differences in the weather next week on which
model is correct. The best approach is to continue a more ensemble
mean which leads to a less amplified short wave diving across the
Midwest. Plus, an upper ridge begins to build back across the
northern Rockies, leading to milder conditions late next week, and
into the first week of October. In simple terms, the abnormally warm
weather will turn more seasonable by early next week, along with a
round or two of showers and thunderstorms, especially late
Monday/Tuesday as the mean short wave ejects across the Upper
Midwest. Drier and more seasonable temperatures will return by
Wednesday/Thursday, with questionable conditions by Friday, and into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

We should be shower & thunderstorm-free through this eve now that
the nocturnally-driven activity has ended and the low/mid level
temperatures are building. Sct-bkn mid level clouds will be
around through most of the period. South/southeast winds will
become gusty this afternoon, then lose the gustiness this eve with
low level wind shear becoming a concern into the overnight hours
(for KSTC/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU). The cold front will be entering western
MN at 06z tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the
front late tonight into the early morning hours. Have maintained a
PROB30 at KAXN, but confidence/potential is too low to include at
other sites at this point. MVFR level cigs behind the front will
also be possible on Saturday, primarily at KAXN/KSTC during this
TAF period.

KMSP...
VFR expected through tomorrow morning with the potential for low-
end VFR clouds by 18z Saturday. Low level wind shear tonight is
the only other concern, with TS/SHRA activity expected to stay to
the west through Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Tue...Chc MVFR/TSRA early. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ023>026-028.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ054-056>070-
     073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 221737
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Updated pops based on current radar and near-term trends. All of
the precipitation should be out of NW WI by this afternoon.
Temperatures should rebound as the skies should clear out. The
next round of showers and thunderstorms will spread into the
forecast area from the NW this evening and spread overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Surface low pressure was centered over western Nebraska early
this morning with a quasi-stationary/cool front extending east
then northeast into the Red River Valley. A warm front stretched
from near Grand Forks eastward across the southern portions of the
forecast area. The warm front will continue lifting northward and
move into Ontario this morning. Meanwhile, the surface low will
lift quickly northeast across South Dakota and into northwest
Minnesota by this evening. Thunderstorms ongoing across Minnesota,
Ontario, and South Dakota seem to be aided by a strong south to
southwesterly LLJ. Latest RAP guidance suggests the winds aloft
will begin to weaken over the next few hours. The HRRR agrees with
this solution. If the short-range guidance pans out, storms in
our forecast area may be near their peak intensity. The next few
hours will be quite telling. Many of the other high res models,
including the NCAR ensemble show the South Dakota convection
congealing into an eastward propagating MCS, moving across our
southern CWA later this morning. GOES-16 water vapor imagery
supports the analysis of the RAP and HRRR with the location and
strength of the LLJ, but the trend of the last hour has been for
veering winds without much decrease in intensity. Given the
satellite data and the broad consensus toward continued storm
activity, have leaned more toward the latter solutions and kept
POPs high across my south through late morning.

The other big story will be the very warm temperatures today and
Saturday. With strong warm air advection aloft and efficient
mixing, near-record highs are forecast for most of the Northland
today, with northwest Wisconsin seeing the warmest temperatures.
Highs are forecast in the low to middle 70s along the
International Border to near 90 degrees across central and east-
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Maximum heat index
values will be near 100 degrees, as well. Another round of
thunderstorms is expected tonight, some may be strong or severe.
Rain chances continue across the northern CWA Saturday with partly
to mostly sunny skies farther south. Temperatures will be warm
once again over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Cooler temperatures and mainly cloudy skies are likely for the
remainder of the Northland.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The deep upper level trough over the western CONUS/Canada will
only make slow progress toward the east through Monday. A frontal
boundary over the Northland will also only move slowly as a result
of the southerly flow aloft. High PWAT values, around 1.5 inches,
which is quite high for this time of year, will remain in place
across much of the region through Tuesday. There will be a high
chance for showers and storms across much of northern Minnesota
Saturday night into Sunday night. Due to the moisture present,
frontal boundary, and shortwaves in southerly flow aloft, heavy
rain, possibly leading to some flooding, will be a threat over
parts of northern Minnesota. Highs Sunday will be warmest over
northwest Wisconsin where shower/storm coverage will be lowest.
Highs there will be in the upper seventies to lower eighties.
Highs will be in the sixties over far north and west areas of the
Northland where cloud cover and storm/shower coverage will be
greatest.

The upper trough will make some eastward progress later Monday
into Tuesday and a surface low will lift north and the front will
finally make it to our eastern zones or pass just east of there.
More showers and storms will occur Monday through Tuesday with
higher chances across northern Wisconsin as well. Storm total
rainfall today through Tuesday will be from 1 to 4 inches with the
higher amounts most likely over central Minnesota into the far
northeast. There will likely be some locally higher amounts due to
thunderstorms repeatedly affecting the same areas.

The chance for showers/storms will end for most areas by
Wednesday and temperatures will continue to cool with highs in the
mid fifties to around sixty. There will be mainly low chances for
showers Thursday and Friday with cooler temperatures continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs were affecting the terminals at the
start of the forecast. With the moist southerly flow expected
through the forecast, will see periods of MVFR throughout. LLWS
will develop right around sunset and continue until near 12Z. Have
backed off on the mention of thunder at all sites but INL, where
they will likely see some storms in the vicinity from sunset
until near 08Z. Some IFR cigs with BR are possible at HIB/INL/BRD
late tonight and early Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  67  78  60 / 100  40  40  60
INL  72  60  63  52 /  60  70  40  70
BRD  86  65  73  60 /  80  40  60  80
HYR  88  68  85  65 / 100  30  30  40
ASX  89  69  85  62 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 221558
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1058 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Updated pops based on current radar and near-term trends. All of
the precipitation should be out of NW WI by this afternoon.
Temperatures should rebound as the skies should clear out. The
next round of showers and thunderstorms will spread into the
forecast area from the NW this evening and spread overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Surface low pressure was centered over western Nebraska early
this morning with a quasi-stationary/cool front extending east
then northeast into the Red River Valley. A warm front stretched
from near Grand Forks eastward across the southern portions of the
forecast area. The warm front will continue lifting northward and
move into Ontario this morning. Meanwhile, the surface low will
lift quickly northeast across South Dakota and into northwest
Minnesota by this evening. Thunderstorms ongoing across Minnesota,
Ontario, and South Dakota seem to be aided by a strong south to
southwesterly LLJ. Latest RAP guidance suggests the winds aloft
will begin to weaken over the next few hours. The HRRR agrees with
this solution. If the short-range guidance pans out, storms in
our forecast area may be near their peak intensity. The next few
hours will be quite telling. Many of the other high res models,
including the NCAR ensemble show the South Dakota convection
congealing into an eastward propagating MCS, moving across our
southern CWA later this morning. GOES-16 water vapor imagery
supports the analysis of the RAP and HRRR with the location and
strength of the LLJ, but the trend of the last hour has been for
veering winds without much decrease in intensity. Given the
satellite data and the broad consensus toward continued storm
activity, have leaned more toward the latter solutions and kept
POPs high across my south through late morning.

The other big story will be the very warm temperatures today and
Saturday. With strong warm air advection aloft and efficient
mixing, near-record highs are forecast for most of the Northland
today, with northwest Wisconsin seeing the warmest temperatures.
Highs are forecast in the low to middle 70s along the
International Border to near 90 degrees across central and east-
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Maximum heat index
values will be near 100 degrees, as well. Another round of
thunderstorms is expected tonight, some may be strong or severe.
Rain chances continue across the northern CWA Saturday with partly
to mostly sunny skies farther south. Temperatures will be warm
once again over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Cooler temperatures and mainly cloudy skies are likely for the
remainder of the Northland.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The deep upper level trough over the western CONUS/Canada will
only make slow progress toward the east through Monday. A frontal
boundary over the Northland will also only move slowly as a result
of the southerly flow aloft. High PWAT values, around 1.5 inches,
which is quite high for this time of year, will remain in place
across much of the region through Tuesday. There will be a high
chance for showers and storms across much of northern Minnesota
Saturday night into Sunday night. Due to the moisture present,
frontal boundary, and shortwaves in southerly flow aloft, heavy
rain, possibly leading to some flooding, will be a threat over
parts of northern Minnesota. Highs Sunday will be warmest over
northwest Wisconsin where shower/storm coverage will be lowest.
Highs there will be in the upper seventies to lower eighties.
Highs will be in the sixties over far north and west areas of the
Northland where cloud cover and storm/shower coverage will be
greatest.

The upper trough will make some eastward progress later Monday
into Tuesday and a surface low will lift north and the front will
finally make it to our eastern zones or pass just east of there.
More showers and storms will occur Monday through Tuesday with
higher chances across northern Wisconsin as well. Storm total
rainfall today through Tuesday will be from 1 to 4 inches with the
higher amounts most likely over central Minnesota into the far
northeast. There will likely be some locally higher amounts due to
thunderstorms repeatedly affecting the same areas.

The chance for showers/storms will end for most areas by
Wednesday and temperatures will continue to cool with highs in the
mid fifties to around sixty. There will be mainly low chances for
showers Thursday and Friday with cooler temperatures continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

An area of strong thunderstorms continues to move north and east
across portions of northern Minnesota into far northwest
Wisconsin. This activity will continue to move north and east
through the morning but is expected to weaken by late morning.
IFR/MVFR conditions will occur under the stronger storms.
Conditions will then improve to VFR for most areas. Far northern
Minnesota, including the KINL TAF, will have a better chance at
seeing MVFR ceilings today. An area of low pressure and frontal
boundary will make slow progress into Minnesota this afternoon and
tonight. A low level jet will again form late this
afternoon/early evening and the front, low, and jet will all
combine to form new showers/storms. We were not as confident in
how widespread the storms will be this afternoon and evening and
went with mostly VCTS wording in the TAFs for now. As the day
progresses, timing and coverage will be refined. More fog will be
possible tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  67  78  60 / 100  40  40  60
INL  72  60  63  52 /  60  70  40  70
BRD  86  65  73  60 /  80  40  60  80
HYR  88  68  85  65 / 100  30  30  40
ASX  89  69  85  62 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 221136
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Surface low pressure was centered over western Nebraska early
this morning with a quasi-stationary/cool front extending east
then northeast into the Red River Valley. A warm front stretched
from near Grand Forks eastward across the southern portions of the
forecast area. The warm front will continue lifting northward and
move into Ontario this morning. Meanwhile, the surface low will
lift quickly northeast across South Dakota and into northwest
Minnesota by this evening. Thunderstorms ongoing across Minnesota,
Ontario, and South Dakota seem to be aided by a strong south to
southwesterly LLJ. Latest RAP guidance suggests the winds aloft
will begin to weaken over the next few hours. The HRRR agrees with
this solution. If the short-range guidance pans out, storms in
our forecast area may be near their peak intensity. The next few
hours will be quite telling. Many of the other high res models,
including the NCAR ensemble show the South Dakota convection
congealing into an eastward propagating MCS, moving across our
southern CWA later this morning. GOES-16 water vapor imagery
supports the analysis of the RAP and HRRR with the location and
strength of the LLJ, but the trend of the last hour has been for
veering winds without much decrease in intensity. Given the
satellite data and the broad consensus toward continued storm
activity, have leaned more toward the latter solutions and kept
POPs high across my south through late morning.

The other big story will be the very warm temperatures today and
Saturday. With strong warm air advection aloft and efficient
mixing, near-record highs are forecast for most of the Northland
today, with northwest Wisconsin seeing the warmest temperatures.
Highs are forecast in the low to middle 70s along the
International Border to near 90 degrees across central and east-
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Maximum heat index
values will be near 100 degrees, as well. Another round of
thunderstorms is expected tonight, some may be strong or severe.
Rain chances continue across the northern CWA Saturday with partly
to mostly sunny skies farther south. Temperatures will be warm
once again over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Cooler temperatures and mainly cloudy skies are likely for the
remainder of the Northland.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The deep upper level trough over the western CONUS/Canada will
only make slow progress toward the east through Monday. A frontal
boundary over the Northland will also only move slowly as a result
of the southerly flow aloft. High PWAT values, around 1.5 inches,
which is quite high for this time of year, will remain in place
across much of the region through Tuesday. There will be a high
chance for showers and storms across much of northern Minnesota
Saturday night into Sunday night. Due to the moisture present,
frontal boundary, and shortwaves in southerly flow aloft, heavy
rain, possibly leading to some flooding, will be a threat over
parts of northern Minnesota. Highs Sunday will be warmest over
northwest Wisconsin where shower/storm coverage will be lowest.
Highs there will be in the upper seventies to lower eighties.
Highs will be in the sixties over far north and west areas of the
Northland where cloud cover and storm/shower coverage will be
greatest.

The upper trough will make some eastward progress later Monday
into Tuesday and a surface low will lift north and the front will
finally make it to our eastern zones or pass just east of there.
More showers and storms will occur Monday through Tuesday with
higher chances across northern Wisconsin as well. Storm total
rainfall today through Tuesday will be from 1 to 4 inches with the
higher amounts most likely over central Minnesota into the far
northeast. There will likely be some locally higher amounts due to
thunderstorms repeatedly affecting the same areas.

The chance for showers/storms will end for most areas by
Wednesday and temperatures will continue to cool with highs in the
mid fifties to around sixty. There will be mainly low chances for
showers Thursday and Friday with cooler temperatures continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

An area of strong thunderstorms continues to move north and east
across portions of northern Minnesota into far northwest
Wisconsin. This activity will continue to move north and east
through the morning but is expected to weaken by late morning.
IFR/MVFR conditions will occur under the stronger storms.
Conditions will then improve to VFR for most areas. Far northern
Minnesota, including the KINL TAF, will have a better chance at
seeing MVFR ceilings today. An area of low pressure and frontal
boundary will make slow progress into Minnesota this afternoon and
tonight. A low level jet will again form late this
afternoon/early evening and the front, low, and jet will all
combine to form new showers/storms. We were not as confident in
how widespread the storms will be this afternoon and evening and
went with mostly VCTS wording in the TAFs for now. As the day
progresses, timing and coverage will be refined. More fog will be
possible tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  67  78  60 /  50  40  40  60
INL  72  60  63  52 /  60  70  40  70
BRD  86  65  73  60 /  60  40  60  80
HYR  89  68  85  65 /  60  30  30  40
ASX  89  69  85  62 /  60  30  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221056
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

As of 3AM this morning, the warm front had lifted to the I-94
corridor from Alexandria toward St Cloud, with a mostly capped
environment in the warm sector.  However, accas was fairly
widespread across the state of Iowa and quickly advancing northward.
So, convection is trying across that region and a few cells have
overcome the cap but remain very isolated.

In the vicinity and north of the front though, more widespread
thunderstorms continue to develop early this morning. Expect storms
to move east through central MN through the mid morning hours.  The
warm front will lift north of the forecast area today, with a cap in
place through the day.  850mb temps will soar to near +25C by this
afternoon and southerly flow will bring winds of 15-20 with gusts to
30 MPH as the surface low works through the eastern Dakotas through
northern Minnesota tonight.  Still expect highs in the upper 80s and
low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s to make for apparent
temperatures in the upper 90s to about 100 degrees this afternoon.
Wet bulb globe temperatures look to reach the lower 80s this
afternoon across most of southern Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin.

The cold front will remain mainly to our west through the evening,
but will begin to encroach on western MN overnight.  With this
boundary comes our next chance of thunderstorm activity.  Due to the
SW to NE orientation of the front, the highest pops overnight are
across much of northern MN extending to the SW encompassing much of
western MN.  Expect eastern MN and western WI to remain dry
overnight with that front reaching western MN by 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Saturday/Saturday night will be wet across the northwestern 1/4 of
MPX forecast area. As with previous discussions, the abnormally
high PWAT values combined with a nearly stationary front, and several
rounds of thunderstorms, will lead to the potential of flooding.
Later shifts may need to see if a Flood Watch needs to be issued
in portions of west central/central Minnesota. Currently WPC has a
slight risk of excessive rainfall on Saturday/Sunday for portions
of west central/southwest and central Minnesota.

After Saturday night,

Although models /EC, GFS, GEM/ are similar in the evolution of the
break down of the upper ridge across the Great Lakes, and mean
trough over the western 1/4 of the CONUS by Sunday night, there
remains a few differences past Sunday.

First, how much energy is left in the Rockies once the mean trough
out west de-amplifies, and one of the short waves move across the
Northern Plains, Upper Midwest by Tuesday? Both the GFS/EC hold more
energy across the southern Rockies compared to the GEM. The GEM
keeps a more progressive long wave trough moving across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest by midweek. Although this is similar to the GFS
by late in the week, both these models have a more significant short
wave diving southeast across the Midwest compared to the EC. This
will have considerable differences in the weather next week on which
model is correct. The best approach is to continue a more ensemble
mean which leads to a less amplified short wave diving across the
Midwest. Plus, an upper ridge begins to build back across the
northern Rockies, leading to milder conditions late next week, and
into the first week of October. In simple terms, the abnormally warm
weather will turn more seasonable by early next week, along with a
round or two of showers and thunderstorms, especially late
Monday/Tuesday as the mean short wave ejects across the Upper
Midwest. Drier and more seasonable temperatures will return by
Wednesday/Thursday, with questionable conditions by Friday, and into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Isolated thunderstorms in region this morning should come to an
end by mid morning. Main concern during the day is the strong
southerly winds. In generally, 20G30kts is not out of the
question if deep enough mixing is achieved. We will see the cold
front enter western MN after dark with the chance of precip
increasing there overnight. Eastern sites should remain dry
through the period

KMSP...expect the thunderstorm activity to our west to remain west
of MSP as it continues on a NNE course this morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ060>063-068>070.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220904
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
404 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

As of 3AM this morning, the warm front had lifted to the I-94
corridor from Alexandria toward St Cloud, with a mostly capped
environment in the warm sector.  However, accas was fairly
widespread across the state of Iowa and quickly advancing northward.
So, convection is trying across that region and a few cells have
overcome the cap but remain very isolated.

In the vicinity and north of the front though, more widespread
thunderstorms continue to develop early this morning. Expect storms
to move east through central MN through the mid morning hours.  The
warm front will lift north of the forecast area today, with a cap in
place through the day.  850mb temps will soar to near +25C by this
afternoon and southerly flow will bring winds of 15-20 with gusts to
30 MPH as the surface low works through the eastern Dakotas through
northern Minnesota tonight.  Still expect highs in the upper 80s and
low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s to make for apparent
temperatures in the upper 90s to about 100 degrees this afternoon.
Wet bulb globe temperatures look to reach the lower 80s this
afternoon across most of southern Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin.

The cold front will remain mainly to our west through the evening,
but will begin to encroach on western MN overnight.  With this
boundary comes our next chance of thunderstorm activity.  Due to the
SW to NE orientation of the front, the highest pops overnight are
across much of northern MN extending to the SW encompassing much of
western MN.  Expect eastern MN and western WI to remain dry
overnight with that front reaching western MN by 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Saturday/Saturday night will be wet across the northwestern 1/4 of
MPX forecast area. As with previous discussions, the abnormally
high PWAT values combined with a nearly stationary front, and several
rounds of thunderstorms, will lead to the potential of flooding.
Later shifts may need to see if a Flood Watch needs to be issued
in portions of west central/central Minnesota. Currently WPC has a
slight risk of excessive rainfall on Saturday/Sunday for portions
of west central/southwest and central Minnesota.

After Saturday night,

Although models /EC, GFS, GEM/ are similar in the evolution of the
break down of the upper ridge across the Great Lakes, and mean
trough over the western 1/4 of the CONUS by Sunday night, there
remains a few differences past Sunday.

First, how much energy is left in the Rockies once the mean trough
out west de-amplifies, and one of the short waves move across the
Northern Plains, Upper Midwest by Tuesday? Both the GFS/EC hold more
energy across the southern Rockies compared to the GEM. The GEM
keeps a more progressive long wave trough moving across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest by midweek. Although this is similar to the GFS
by late in the week, both these models have a more significant short
wave diving southeast across the Midwest compared to the EC. This
will have considerable differences in the weather next week on which
model is correct. The best approach is to continue a more ensemble
mean which leads to a less amplified short wave diving across the
Midwest. Plus, an upper ridge begins to build back across the
northern Rockies, leading to milder conditions late next week, and
into the first week of October. In simple terms, the abnormally warm
weather will turn more seasonable by early next week, along with a
round or two of showers and thunderstorms, especially late
Monday/Tuesday as the mean short wave ejects across the Upper
Midwest. Drier and more seasonable temperatures will return by
Wednesday/Thursday, with questionable conditions by Friday, and into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Convection is now breaking out over central and northern MN in
response to a northward punching warm front and a lingering cold
front near the border with the Dakotas. Can expect scattered
coverage around KAXN with diminishing coverage dropping south to
the I-94 corridor with no precipitation expected south of I-94.
Window for precip is generally 06z-12z so only partly cloudy skies
are expected for much of the day on Friday (along with the very
warm temperatures). The other issue will be strong nocturnal
jetting both overnight tonight and again tomorrow night into
Saturday morning. Directional component plus the speeds around 50
knots will create LLWS conditions.

KMSP...LLWS conditions expected through the morning push on Friday
with SE surface winds and SW winds up to 2 kft at around 50 knots.
Mixing after daybreak will blend those winds aloft down to the
surface, creating breezy southerly winds all day. Chances are
quite low for overnight convection so have opted to run with a dry
TAF this cycle but will monitor radar and amend as needed. LLWS
conditions are again expected tomorrow night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ060>063-068>070.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 220741
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
241 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Surface low pressure was centered over western Nebraska early
this morning with a quasi-stationary/cool front extending east
then northeast into the Red River Valley. A warm front stretched
from near Grand Forks eastward across the southern portions of the
forecast area. The warm front will continue lifting northward and
move into Ontario this morning. Meanwhile, the surface low will
lift quickly northeast across South Dakota and into northwest
Minnesota by this evening. Thunderstorms ongoing across Minnesota,
Ontario, and South Dakota seem to be aided by a strong south to
southwesterly LLJ. Latest RAP guidance suggests the winds aloft
will begin to weaken over the next few hours. The HRRR agrees with
this solution. If the short-range guidance pans out, storms in
our forecast area may be near their peak intensity. The next few
hours will be quite telling. Many of the other high res models,
including the NCAR ensemble show the South Dakota convection
congealing into an eastward propagating MCS, moving across our
southern CWA later this morning. GOES-16 water vapor imagery
supports the analysis of the RAP and HRRR with the location and
strength of the LLJ, but the trend of the last hour has been for
veering winds without much decrease in intensity. Given the
satellite data and the broad consensus toward continued storm
activity, have leaned more toward the latter solutions and kept
POPs high across my south through late morning.

The other big story will be the very warm temperatures today and
Saturday. With strong warm air advection aloft and efficient
mixing, near-record highs are forecast for most of the Northland
today, with northwest Wisconsin seeing the warmest temperatures.
Highs are forecast in the low to middle 70s along the
International Border to near 90 degrees across central and east-
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Maximum heat index
values will be near 100 degrees, as well. Another round of
thunderstorms is expected tonight, some may be strong or severe.
Rain chances continue across the northern CWA Saturday with partly
to mostly sunny skies farther south. Temperatures will be warm
once again over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Cooler temperatures and mainly cloudy skies are likely for the
remainder of the Northland.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The deep upper level trough over the western CONUS/Canada will
only make slow progress toward the east through Monday. A frontal
boundary over the Northland will also only move slowly as a result
of the southerly flow aloft. High PWAT values, around 1.5 inches,
which is quite high for this time of year, will remain in place
across much of the region through Tuesday. There will be a high
chance for showers and storms across much of northern Minnesota
Saturday night into Sunday night. Due to the moisture present,
frontal boundary, and shortwaves in southerly flow aloft, heavy
rain, possibly leading to some flooding, will be a threat over
parts of northern Minnesota. Highs Sunday will be warmest over
northwest Wisconsin where shower/storm coverage will be lowest.
Highs there will be in the upper seventies to lower eighties.
Highs will be in the sixties over far north and west areas of the
Northland where cloud cover and storm/shower coverage will be
greatest.

The upper trough will make some eastward progress later Monday
into Tuesday and a surface low will lift north and the front will
finally make it to our eastern zones or pass just east of there.
More showers and storms will occur Monday through Tuesday with
higher chances across northern Wisconsin as well. Storm total
rainfall today through Tuesday will be from 1 to 4 inches with the
higher amounts most likely over central Minnesota into the far
northeast. There will likely be some locally higher amounts due to
thunderstorms repeatedly affecting the same areas.

The chance for showers/storms will end for most areas by
Wednesday and temperatures will continue to cool with highs in the
mid fifties to around sixty. There will be mainly low chances for
showers Thursday and Friday with cooler temperatures continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High pressure will continue to lose its grip on the Northland
weather overnight and into Friday, as an area of low pressure
approaches our region from the west. A warm front developing just
south of the Northland will continue to lift slowly northward
overnight. The warm front will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms for the area TAF sites overnight. The focus will
then shift to the cold front that will develop to the west of our
area on Friday and Friday evening. This will bring the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms. While we should see largely VFR
conditions, there will undoubtedly be some MVFR to IFR CIG`s and
VSBY`s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  67  78  60 /  50  40  40  60
INL  72  60  63  52 /  60  70  40  70
BRD  86  65  73  60 /  60  40  60  80
HYR  89  68  85  65 /  60  30  30  40
ASX  89  69  85  62 /  60  30  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 220525
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1225 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

An active pattern will set up over the Northland tonight through
Friday time frame. On the large scale, a longwave trough,
characterized by a 110 to 120 knot upper-level jet over the
Intermountain West states northeast into Manitoba and northwest
Ontario, will build across the western United States. This trough
will set the stage for this active weather pattern as strong
southwest flow will develop over the region, enhancing isentropic
upglide. At the sfc, an area of high pressure that dominated our
weather today will continue to move off to the east, maintaining
southwesterly winds and increasing 850-700 mb layer warm and
moist air advection. Moisture transport and instability will
increase overnight, leading to MUCAPE values between 1500 and
3000+ J/kg, as well as sfc dew points into the middle to upper
60s F. Showers and thunderstorms will result, with some possibly
strong to severe given the instability and a strengthening low-
level jet. For tonight, the main threats will be damaging winds
and some large hail. There is some uncertainty regarding the areal
coverage of these storms, as there is some timing and areal
differences between the convective-allowing models. The Storm
Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather for nearly
all of the forecast area for tonight.

For Friday, there should be a brief respite from showers and storms
during the day, according to the high-res guidance. However, due to
the strong southerly flow, very warm and humid air will become
entrenched over the region. Temperatures will approach record
values Friday, with high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
along the International Border into the middle to upper 80s over
our southern counties, especially over northwest Wisconsin -
values well above climatology. Due to the unseasonable heat and
humidity, heat indices could reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s
over our southern counties.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late
Friday afternoon as a sfc low pressure system that develops due to
lee cyclogenesis. This area of low pressure will be accompanied by
an inverted sfc trough and stationary boundary trailing the low
pressure center. These features will act as the mechanism for this
next round of showers and storms. Instability will linger over
the region, and even increase some, with MLCAPE values between
2000 to 4000 J/kg between the GFS and NAM models. Deep layer shear
will be enhanced late in the afternoon, with values between 30 to
40 kts. Due to the moderate to high instability, SPC has a Slight
Risk of severe weather north of a Brainerd to Hibbing to Ely
line. The timing of this activity appears to be more in the Friday
night and Saturday morning time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The Northland will have an extended period of wet and stormy weather
through the weekend and early next week. An area of high pressure
over the eastern US and eastern Canada will meet resistance from the
tropical storms in the Atlantic and have a difficult time going
anywhere fast. This will in turn result in a cool front to slowly
work its way eastward across the Northern Plains and and western
Great Lakes region over the weekend through early next week. The
Northland will find itself in days of warm and humid southwest flow
aloft (with precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, which
is very deep moisture for this time of the year). Passing
shortwaves, the front, and nocturnal low-level jets will provide
forcing for multiple rounds of showers and storms during this
period. Days of showers and storms, tapping into this deep moisture,
could result in very saturated soils and some flooding. It is too
soon to narrow down the flooding risk to any particular area, but we
will be keeping on eye on the flooding potential. Much of it will
depend on where and how much rain falls from thunderstorms with
reach round.

There is risk of strong to severe storms Friday night. A strong low-
level jet will develop, about 35 to 50 knots, as the front begins to
enter the western areas of the forecast area. Lowering heights,
because of a deep upper-trough digging through the western US, and
passing shortwaves will provide moderate synoptic forcing for
ascent. This forcing will help trigger storms across the region,
with better chances of storms in the western and northern forecast
area. Widespread most-unstable CAPE of 1500 to 3000 J/kg and 0-6 km
deep layer wind shear of 25 to 40 knots will provide a favorable
environment for organized updrafts/storms. Hail, damaging winds,
and heavy rain will be the main threats with these nocturnal storms.

Temperatures will begin the weekend on the warm side, with parts of
the southeast forecast area about 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal
normal. Highs on Saturday are forecast for the low 80s in northwest
Wisconsin to as low as the middle 60s over north-central Minnesota.
Temperatures will gradually cool with each successive day as that
front works its way through the region. Temperatures should return
to near seasonal normal by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High pressure will continue to lose its grip on the Northland
weather overnight and into Friday, as an area of low pressure
approaches our region from the west. A warm front developing just
south of the Northland will continue to lift slowly northward
overnight. The warm front will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms for the area TAF sites overnight. The focus will
then shift to the cold front that will develop to the west of our
area on Friday and Friday evening. This will bring the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms. While we should see largely VFR
conditions, there will undoubtedly be some MVFR to IFR CIG`s and
VSBY`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  79  67  78 /  50  40  40  50
INL  59  73  60  62 /  50  70  70  40
BRD  66  85  65  73 /  50  30  40  70
HYR  68  88  68  85 /  50  30  30  30
ASX  57  88  69  85 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220428
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1128 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A surface warm front will continue to lift north across the area
tonight. Surface dewpoints have already moderated into the upper
60s over southern MN this afternoon. As low level moisture
advection increases this afternoon, hi-res models continue to
indicate the potential for isolated showers to pop up this eve.
The more concentrated activity looks to develop around/after 05z
over central/northern MN/WI as the low level jet strengthens.
Anticipate most of this activity to stay north of the Interstate
94 corridor.

Tomorrow expect the nocturnal activity to wane as the CAP builds
in the warm sector. The primary forecast concentration
transitions to how warm we will get, with near-record temperatures
in the forecast. Progged Bufkit soundings indicate we will mix to
between 875-900mb, which would yield highs mostly in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Given the elevated dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices along and south of I-94 moderate into the 95 to 100
degree range. Given the breezy southerly winds, the true impact
may be abated slightly, but Wet Bulb Globe temperatures still look
to rise into the lower 80s across the metro area. While this is
somewhat borderline for a typical heat advisory day, we do meet
advisory criteria for much of the metro, and given heat
acclimatization has been non-existent given the cool August we
had, issued an advisory for the TC metro for tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The longer term concerns remain timing/evolution of the western
conus trough and movement of the surface front.

The front will slowly move into western Minnesota overnight. Day2
outlook continue to paint slight risk of severe thunderstorms in
the vicinity of the front. We should be capped until the front
moves into the area. Models trend a weak surface low traveling
across eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota during the
night and this should help move the front east into Minnesota.
Severe weather parameters continue to favor large hail and
damaging winds, with a small tornado threat along and north of the
path the surface low.

We trimmed the eastern extent of the PoP forecast with some leeway
given the small eastward progression of the front on the 12z
ECMWF. Still looks like it should mainly affect the western and
central portion of the area through the day Sunday. This will
leave the eastern cwa in the heat and humidity, but shouldn`t be
as extreme as Friday afternoon. The thunder threat will continue
with the frontal boundary through at least Monday with the slow
passage of the upper trough and surface front into Tuesday. Heavy
rainfall remains a threat as well, with the NAEFS anomalous PW`s
showing around 3 standard deviations through the weekend.

The front exits the east Tuesday followed by cooler and drier
conditions through at least midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Convection is now breaking out over central and northern MN in
response to a northward punching warm front and a lingering cold
front near the border with the Dakotas. Can expect scattered
coverage around KAXN with diminishing coverage dropping south to
the I-94 corridor with no precipitation expected south of I-94.
Window for precip is generally 06z-12z so only partly cloudy skies
are expected for much of the day on Friday (along with the very
warm temperatures). The other issue will be strong nocturnal
jetting both overnight tonight and again tomorrow night into
Saturday morning. Directional component plus the speeds around 50
knots will create LLWS conditions.

KMSP...LLWS conditions expected through the morning push on Friday
with SE surface winds and SW winds up to 2 kft at around 50 knots.
Mixing after daybreak will blend those winds aloft down to the
surface, creating breezy southerly winds all day. Chances are
quite low for overnight convection so have opted to run with a dry
TAF this cycle but will monitor radar and amend as needed. LLWS
conditions are again expected tomorrow night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MNZ060>063-
     068>070.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220008
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
708 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A surface warm front will continue to lift north across the area tonight.
Surface dewpoints have already moderated into the upper 60s over
southern MN this afternoon. As low level moisture advection
increases this afternoon, hi-res models continue to indicate the
potential for isolated showers to pop up this eve. The more
concentrated activity looks to develop around/after 05z over
central/northern MN/WI as the low level jet strengthens.
Anticipate most of this activity to stay north of the Interstate
94 corridor.

Tomorrow expect the nocturnal activity to wane as the CAP builds
in the warm sector. The primary forecast concentration
transitions to how warm we will get, with near-record temperatures
in the forecast. Progged Bufkit soundings indicate we will mix to
between 875-900mb, which would yield highs mostly in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Given the elevated dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices along and south of I-94 moderate into the 95 to 100 degree
range. Given the breezy southerly winds, the true impact may be
abated slightly, but Wet Bulb Globe temperatures still look to
rise into the lower 80s across the metro area. While this is
somewhat borderline for a typical heat advisory day, we do meet
advisory criteria for much of the metro, and given heat
acclimatization has been non-existent given the cool August we
had, issued an advisory for the TC metro for tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The longer term concerns remain timing/evolution of the western
conus trough and movement of the surface front.

The front will slowly move into western Minnesota overnight. Day2
outlook continue to paint slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the front. We should be capped until the front moves
into the area. Models trend a weak surface low traveling across
eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota during the night and
this should help move the front east into Minnesota.
Severe weather parameters continue to favor large hail and damaging
winds, with a small tornado threat along and north of the path the
surface low.

We trimmed the eastern extent of the PoP forecast with some leeway
given the small eastward progression of the front on the 12z ECMWF.
Still looks like it should mainly affect the western and central
portion of the area through the day Sunday. This will leave the
eastern cwa in the heat and humidity, but shouldn`t be as extreme as
Friday afternoon. The thunder threat will continue with the frontal
boundary through at least Monday with the slow passage of the upper
trough and surface front into Tuesday. Heavy rainfall remains a
threat as well, with the NAEFS anomalous PW`s showing around 3
standard deviations through the weekend.

The front exits the east Tuesday followed by cooler and drier
conditions through at least midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

There remains a chance for thunderstorm activity along a warm
front overnight, primarily near AXN. Otherwise, the other TAF
locations should remain dry. The next concern for the overnight
hours is low level wind shear becoming greater than 30kt for
KSTC/KRWF/KMSP/KMKT with increasing wind speeds aloft. The height
of the wind shear is up to 2,000ft. Next, there is a chance for
patchy fog in Western WI with increasing moisture overnight, so
visibilities of 4-5SM have been mentioned in the KRNH/KEAU TAFs.
There is a possibility that cloud cover and wind may prohibit fog
from developing, so that will continue to be monitored.

Otherwise, winds are expected to veer slightly from southwest to
south-southwest during this time period. Winds will gust near
20-25kt during the late morning and through the afternoon on
Friday, especially in MN. Chances for thunderstorm activity
return late Friday with best chances being after 00Z Saturday.


KMSP...
Dry conditions are anticipated overnight with any thunderstorm
activity that occurs likely staying to the west. The main concern
is low level wind shear overnight. The shear will decrease by
late morning as surface winds become breezy again through the
afternoon. Wind gusts of 20kt have been mentioned, but that may
need to be increased should wind speeds aloft that mix down to the
surface supersede what is predicted.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MNZ060>063-
     068>070.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...AMK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 212352
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
652 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

An active pattern will set up over the Northland tonight through
Friday time frame. On the large scale, a longwave trough,
characterized by a 110 to 120 knot upper-level jet over the
Intermountain West states northeast into Manitoba and northwest
Ontario, will build across the western United States. This trough
will set the stage for this active weather pattern as strong
southwest flow will develop over the region, enhancing isentropic
upglide. At the sfc, an area of high pressure that dominated our
weather today will continue to move off to the east, maintaining
southwesterly winds and increasing 850-700 mb layer warm and
moist air advection. Moisture transport and instability will
increase overnight, leading to MUCAPE values between 1500 and
3000+ J/kg, as well as sfc dew points into the middle to upper
60s F. Showers and thunderstorms will result, with some possibly
strong to severe given the instability and a strengthening low-
level jet. For tonight, the main threats will be damaging winds
and some large hail. There is some uncertainty regarding the areal
coverage of these storms, as there is some timing and areal
differences between the convective-allowing models. The Storm
Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather for nearly
all of the forecast area for tonight.

For Friday, there should be a brief respite from showers and storms
during the day, according to the high-res guidance. However, due to
the strong southerly flow, very warm and humid air will become
entrenched over the region. Temperatures will approach record
values Friday, with high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
along the International Border into the middle to upper 80s over
our southern counties, especially over northwest Wisconsin -
values well above climatology. Due to the unseasonable heat and
humidity, heat indices could reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s
over our southern counties.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late
Friday afternoon as a sfc low pressure system that develops due to
lee cyclogenesis. This area of low pressure will be accompanied by
an inverted sfc trough and stationary boundary trailing the low
pressure center. These features will act as the mechanism for this
next round of showers and storms. Instability will linger over
the region, and even increase some, with MLCAPE values between
2000 to 4000 J/kg between the GFS and NAM models. Deep layer shear
will be enhanced late in the afternoon, with values between 30 to
40 kts. Due to the moderate to high instability, SPC has a Slight
Risk of severe weather north of a Brainerd to Hibbing to Ely
line. The timing of this activity appears to be more in the Friday
night and Saturday morning time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The Northland will have an extended period of wet and stormy weather
through the weekend and early next week. An area of high pressure
over the eastern US and eastern Canada will meet resistance from the
tropical storms in the Atlantic and have a difficult time going
anywhere fast. This will in turn result in a cool front to slowly
work its way eastward across the Northern Plains and and western
Great Lakes region over the weekend through early next week. The
Northland will find itself in days of warm and humid southwest flow
aloft (with precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, which
is very deep moisture for this time of the year). Passing
shortwaves, the front, and nocturnal low-level jets will provide
forcing for multiple rounds of showers and storms during this
period. Days of showers and storms, tapping into this deep moisture,
could result in very saturated soils and some flooding. It is too
soon to narrow down the flooding risk to any particular area, but we
will be keeping on eye on the flooding potential. Much of it will
depend on where and how much rain falls from thunderstorms with
reach round.

There is risk of strong to severe storms Friday night. A strong low-
level jet will develop, about 35 to 50 knots, as the front begins to
enter the western areas of the forecast area. Lowering heights,
because of a deep upper-trough digging through the western US, and
passing shortwaves will provide moderate synoptic forcing for
ascent. This forcing will help trigger storms across the region,
with better chances of storms in the western and northern forecast
area. Widespread most-unstable CAPE of 1500 to 3000 J/kg and 0-6 km
deep layer wind shear of 25 to 40 knots will provide a favorable
environment for organized updrafts/storms. Hail, damaging winds,
and heavy rain will be the main threats with these nocturnal storms.

Temperatures will begin the weekend on the warm side, with parts of
the southeast forecast area about 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal
normal. Highs on Saturday are forecast for the low 80s in northwest
Wisconsin to as low as the middle 60s over north-central Minnesota.
Temperatures will gradually cool with each successive day as that
front works its way through the region. Temperatures should return
to near seasonal normal by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

High pressure will gradually lose its grip on the Northland
overnight and into Friday, as an area of low pressure organizes
rapidly to the est of our area. Strong southerly winds ahead of
the low pressure system will help to develop showers and
thunderstorms as the night wears on. The showers and storms should
generally be scattered in nature, but there will likely be some
areas of more organized convection. We will also see a rapid
development of low clouds and some areas of fog tonight, resulting
in MVFR to IFR conditions as the night wears on. With the warm
front gradually lifting northward on Friday, we should see an
improvement to VFR conditions in more southern locations, before
more storms organize to the west of our area Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  80  66  77 /  70  30  40  50
INL  59  73  62  65 /  60  60  70  40
BRD  66  86  66  72 /  60  30  40  70
HYR  68  87  68  83 /  60  30  30  30
ASX  61  88  67  83 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 212053
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
353 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A surface warm front will continue to lift north across the area tonight.
Surface dewpoints have already moderated into the upper 60s over
southern MN this afternoon. As low level moisture advection
increases this afternoon, hi-res models continue to indicate the
potential for isolated showers to pop up this eve. The more
concentrated activity looks to develop around/after 05z over
central/northern MN/WI as the low level jet strengthens.
Anticipate most of this activity to stay north of the Interstate
94 corridor.

Tomorrow expect the nocturnal activity to wane as the CAP builds
in the warm sector. The primary forecast concentration
transitions to how warm we will get, with near-record temperatures
in the forecast. Progged Bufkit soundings indicate we will mix to
between 875-900mb, which would yield highs mostly in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Given the elevated dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices along and south of I-94 moderate into the 95 to 100 degree
range. Given the breezy southerly winds, the true impact may be
abated slightly, but Wet Bulb Globe temperatures still look to
rise into the lower 80s across the metro area. While this is
somewhat borderline for a typical heat advisory day, we do meet
advisory criteria for much of the metro, and given heat
acclimatization has been non-existent given the cool August we
had, issued an advisory for the TC metro for tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The longer term concerns remain timing/evolution of the western
conus trough and movement of the surface front.

The front will slowly move into western Minnesota overnight. Day2
outlook continue to paint slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the front. We should be capped until the front moves
into the area. Models trend a weak surface low traveling across
eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota during the night and
this should help move the front east into Minnesota.
Severe weather parameters continue to favor large hail and damaging
winds, with a small tornado threat along and north of the path the
surface low.

We trimmed the eastern extent of the PoP forecast with some leeway
given the small eastward progression of the front on the 12z ECMWF.
Still looks like it should mainly affect the western and central
portion of the area through the day Sunday. This will leave the
eastern cwa in the heat and humidity, but shouldn`t be as extreme as
Friday afternoon. The thunder threat will continue with the frontal
boundary through at least Monday with the slow passage of the upper
trough and surface front into Tuesday. Heavy rainfall remains a
threat as well, with the NAEFS anomalous PW`s showing around 3
standard deviations through the weekend.

The front exits the east Tuesday followed by cooler and drier
conditions through at least midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A narrow band of low clouds will continue to lift across central
MN/WI during the early afternoon hours. While this band is
scattering out to some degree, expect KMSP and KEAU to have the
potential for brief broken ceiling (circa 2KFT at KMSP and 1KFT at
KEAU). Should only last for 1-2 hours, and then VFR conditions are
expected through this eve. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase after midnight along a warm frontal boundary over central
MN/WI, but the main area of potential looks to be north of most
sites except possibly KAXN/KSTC/KRNH, where PROB30 mentions have
been maintained. The other concern overnight is the potential for
low level wind shear as surface gusts subside and winds just above
the surface increase. Have included a mention at KMSP/KRWF/KMKT.

KMSP...
Ceilings may briefly go BKN020 between 18z and 20z, but after that
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Thunder threat
overnight still looks to be to the north.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MNZ060>063-
     068>070.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 212018
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
318 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

An active pattern will set up over the Northland tonight through
Friday time frame. On the large scale, a longwave trough,
characterized by a 110 to 120 knot upper-level jet over the
Intermountain West states northeast into Manitoba and northwest
Ontario, will build across the western United States. This trough
will set the stage for this active weather pattern as strong
southwest flow will develop over the region, enhancing isentropic
upglide. At the sfc, an area of high pressure that dominated our
weather today will continue to move off to the east, maintaining
southwesterly winds and increasing 850-700 mb layer warm and
moist air advection. Moisture transport and instability will
increase overnight, leading to MUCAPE values between 1500 and
3000+ J/kg, as well as sfc dew points into the middle to upper
60s F. Showers and thunderstorms will result, with some possibly
strong to severe given the instability and a strengthening low-
level jet. For tonight, the main threats will be damaging winds
and some large hail. There is some uncertainty regarding the areal
coverage of these storms, as there is some timing and areal
differences between the convective-allowing models. The Storm
Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather for nearly
all of the forecast area for tonight.

For Friday, there should be a brief respite from showers and storms
during the day, according to the high-res guidance. However, due to
the strong southerly flow, very warm and humid air will become
entrenched over the region. Temperatures will approach record
values Friday, with high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
along the International Border into the middle to upper 80s over
our southern counties, especially over northwest Wisconsin -
values well above climatology. Due to the unseasonable heat and
humidity, heat indices could reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s
over our southern counties.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late
Friday afternoon as a sfc low pressure system that develops due to
lee cyclogenesis. This area of low pressure will be accompanied by
an inverted sfc trough and stationary boundary trailing the low
pressure center. These features will act as the mechanism for this
next round of showers and storms. Instability will linger over
the region, and even increase some, with MLCAPE values between
2000 to 4000 J/kg between the GFS and NAM models. Deep layer shear
will be enhanced late in the afternoon, with values between 30 to
40 kts. Due to the moderate to high instability, SPC has a Slight
Risk of severe weather north of a Brainerd to Hibbing to Ely
line. The timing of this activity appears to be more in the Friday
night and Saturday morning time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The Northland will have an extended period of wet and stormy weather
through the weekend and early next week. An area of high pressure
over the eastern US and eastern Canada will meet resistance from the
tropical storms in the Atlantic and have a difficult time going
anywhere fast. This will in turn result in a cool front to slowly
work its way eastward across the Northern Plains and and western
Great Lakes region over the weekend through early next week. The
Northland will find itself in days of warm and humid southwest flow
aloft (with precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, which
is very deep moisture for this time of the year). Passing
shortwaves, the front, and nocturnal low-level jets will provide
forcing for multiple rounds of showers and storms during this
period. Days of showers and storms, tapping into this deep moisture,
could result in very saturated soils and some flooding. It is too
soon to narrow down the flooding risk to any particular area, but we
will be keeping on eye on the flooding potential. Much of it will
depend on where and how much rain falls from thunderstorms with
reach round.

There is risk of strong to severe storms Friday night. A strong low-
level jet will develop, about 35 to 50 knots, as the front begins to
enter the western areas of the forecast area. Lowering heights,
because of a deep upper-trough digging through the western US, and
passing shortwaves will provide moderate synoptic forcing for
ascent. This forcing will help trigger storms across the region,
with better chances of storms in the western and northern forecast
area. Widespread most-unstable CAPE of 1500 to 3000 J/kg and 0-6 km
deep layer wind shear of 25 to 40 knots will provide a favorable
environment for organized updrafts/storms. Hail, damaging winds,
and heavy rain will be the main threats with these nocturnal storms.

Temperatures will begin the weekend on the warm side, with parts of
the southeast forecast area about 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal
normal. Highs on Saturday are forecast for the low 80s in northwest
Wisconsin to as low as the middle 60s over north-central Minnesota.
Temperatures will gradually cool with each successive day as that
front works its way through the region. Temperatures should return
to near seasonal normal by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Northeast MN and northwest WI might have widespread sunny skies
and warm, breezy southeast flow as of early this afternoon.
However, a strong low-level jet stream will develop this evening
as low pressure approaches the region from the west. This jet
will develop showers and storms across the region and bringing
deepening low-level humidity, which will translate to lower
ceilings. Strong and cooler flow from Lake Superior may actually
result in lower ceilings and visibility at KDLH and areas near the
Lake first. Expect a transition to widespread IFR to LIFR
conditions by early Friday. Some of the storms overnight could be
strong to severe. The strong jet will result in periods of
significant low-level wind shear. Ceiling and visibilities
will slowly improve Friday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  80  66  77 /  70  30  40  50
INL  59  73  62  65 /  60  60  70  40
BRD  66  86  66  72 /  60  30  40  70
HYR  68  87  68  83 /  60  30  30  30
ASX  61  88  67  83 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142>145.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140-141.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski




000
FXUS63 KMPX 211746
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1246 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...For 18z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Surface ridging overhead has provided clear skies and light winds
across the region this morning. Some patchy fog has developed, but
it should burn off quickly after sunrise. It`s a bit chilly with
temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s. This is actually where we
should be this time of year. However, the next 24 hours will change
dramatically with dew points and low temperatures in the lower 70s
tonight - 20 to 30 degrees warmer.

The main feature to watch today will be the surface warm front
lifting north from southern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Strong
moisture advection behind this boundary will send dew points into
the lower 70s by early evening across southern Minnesota and
elsewhere by mid evening. This moisture advection will erode the cap
and could allow isolated storms to develop near the front mid to
late afternoon. They could dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating before the next round of elevated convection
develops overnight.

The low level jet is expected to strengthen this evening. Most
recent model runs show a little better defined nose extending up
into southwest Minnesota by 06z. This should focus the best risk of
convection along and north of I-94 over central MN after 07-08Z,
propagating toward northwest WI during the predawn hours. Steep
lapse rates atop a very warm/moist boundary layer could lead to
MUCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg overnight. Effective shear is rather
meager, however, which will limit the extent of severe potential. It
will also lead to loosely organized storm clusters and motions will
be mostly dictated by outflow boundaries. Some large hail is
possible with the stronger cells/clusters, otherwise locally heavy
rainfall is likely with any cell training.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

There are four main concerns during the long term period. Potential
for excessive heat and the need for heat related headlines Friday,
potential for severe storms Friday evening in western MN, placing
the baroclinic zone and the eastward extent of PoPs through the
weekend, and the potential for excessive rainfall this weekend for
western and central MN.

Models remain in good agreement on the large scale pattern evolution
through the weekend, with a blocking high building into the Great
Lakes, with a positively tilted long wave trough extending from the
Great Basin to Hudson Bay. This upper air pattern will create a
strong surface baroclinic zone from far western into northern MN
that will move very little from Friday night through Sunday night.
Next week, the ridge finally starts to weaken, allowing for the
trough to our west to finally kick east, the end result of which
will be northwest flow by the end of next week. So over the course
of the next week, we`ll get to enjoy summer and fall, with a little
bit of rain in between.

For Friday, the only thing that will slow temperatures down is
potential cloud cover from what, if anything we see tonight. Deep
southerly flow will bring very warm air into the area. Based on 925-
850 temps, we went several degrees above the blended guidance for
temperatures for areas east of the baroclinic zone through the
weekend, though Friday will be the warmest of the days. The NAM/GFS
show a tongue of 925-850mb temps of nearly 28c coming up into
western MN ahead of the front Friday afternoon, and this area could
see warmer temps than we have now. In fact GEFS temperature plumes
for RWF top out at 98 on Friday, so there is potential this forecast
is conservative out in southwest and west central MN. Beside the
warm temperatures, these south winds will bring dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s that are currently in the mid-Mississippi Valley this
direction Friday. With highs in the low/mid 90s with dewpoints in
the low 70s, we now have apparent temperatures up around 100 for
Friday afternoon. Getting a full picture of the heat health with the
WBGT, you see we have one saving grace in the excessive heat
department and that`s the breezy south winds expected. These strong
winds combined with a lower sun angle are helping keep WBGT values a
bit lower and than what you expect with similar temp/dewp
values in say July.

For the severe threat Friday, though very unstable, the warm sector
will also be securely capped and any thunderstorm development will
occur along the cold front. Eventually, convergence along the front
will overcome the cap, but likely not until after 5pm Friday. Current
SPC day 2 outlook matches up pretty good with where the SREF has
it`s greatest corridor of severe potential and see no reason to
argue against the slight risk placement. Shear vectors are pretty
much lined up with the front, so linear looks to be the mode of
choice. Shear/instability parameters certainly support all modes of
severe weather being possible, but the expected storm mode likely
means wind and hail will be the main treats.

For the weekend, the biggest change in this forecast was to trim the
eastern extent of PoPs as the baroclinic zone will move very little,
with repeated rounds of thunderstorms expected across western into
parts of central MN. We now have a dry forecast through Sunday night
from south central MN to the southeast Twin Cities metro and over to
Eau Claire. The heaviest rain still looks to fall along and west of
a Redwood Falls, to St. Cloud, to Mille Lacs line, where 3-6" of
rain still looks likely through the weekend. When looking at GEFS M-
Climate QPF percentiles, the two periods that look to have the
greatest risk of excessive rainfall are Saturday night and Sunday
night when QPF values are forecast to be above the 99th percentile
in west central MN. Fortunately, our severe weather potential over
the weekend looks considerably diminished as the steep mid-level
lapse rates of Friday will not stick around for the weekend, which
will greatly reduce instability and in turn the severe threat.

Monday, as heights in the ridge start to fall, the trough to our
west finally comes east. This will drag the moisture plume slowly
east across the area Monday and Tuesday, which is when eastern areas
finally look to get some rain, though by then this system will begin
to lose some of it`s moisture and the forcing mechanisms will be on
the move, so rainfall amounts to the east will be much less than
what we see west.

Eventually, this system moves off to our east on Wednesday and we
get a dry second half of next week with temperatures back down near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A narrow band of low clouds will continue to lift across central
MN/WI during the early afternoon hours. While this band is
scattering out to some degree, expect KMSP and KEAU to have the
potential for brief broken ceiling (circa 2KFT at KMSP and 1KFT at
KEAU). Should only last for 1-2 hours, and then VFR conditions are
expected through this eve. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase after midnight along a warm frontal boundary over central
MN/WI, but the main area of potential looks to be north of most
sites except possibly KAXN/KSTC/KRNH, where PROB30 mentions have
been maintained. The other concern overnight is the potential for
low level wind shear as surface gusts subside and winds just above
the surface increase. Have included a mention at KMSP/KRWF/KMKT.

KMSP...
Ceilings may briefly go BKN020 between 18z and 20z, but after that
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Thunder threat
overnight still looks to be to the north.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 211733
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Updated for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A quiet day is on tap with high pressure over the Northland.
Temperatures will start cool across the area, but as the ridge
axis pushes east of the area, southerly return flow will bring
much warmer air by late this afternoon. Strong warm advection in
the 925 to 850 mb layer, along with increasing moisture profiles,
should bring a few more clouds into the picture by late this
afternoon into this evening. Several of the high resolution CAMs
feature showers or thunderstorms moving into the southern CWA this
evening. Think that approach is plausible so have continued a
broad-brushed chance of showers and thunderstorms spreading
northward with time tonight. Showers and storms may intensify as
the nocturnal LLJ strengthens late tonight. There are questions as
to how far north the LLJ will push with some models producing
strong convection in Ontario, while other guidance farther south.
Continued the increase in probabilities overnight with the concept
of one or two lines of storms moving through the area. Increased
POPs for Friday morning as the showers/storms exit the area to the
northeast.

Strong warm air advection will continue on Friday leading to
near- record high temperatures for much of the Northland.
Afternoon temperatures from the upper 80s to near 90 degrees are
possible over northwest Wisconsin and much of central and east-
central Minnesota with middle 70s along the International Border.
The warmth will recharge the atmosphere after the early morning
convection and instability will increase through the afternoon.
The chance of thunderstorms returns to the picture late in the day
over far northern Minnesota, along the International Border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A wet period is in store for much of the Northland Friday night
into early next week. Portions of the Northland will also see
temperatures much above normal Saturday into Monday.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS early in the period will
only make slow progress east into Monday with a moist southerly
flow through a deep layer over the region. Plenty of moisture will
move into the area with PWAT values forecast between 1.5 inches
and 1.7 inches by Saturday. These values are near all time highs
recorded at KINL. A frontal boundary will move slowly east and
south over the Northland Friday night and remain over or near the
region into early next week. Showers and storms will occur as a
result of the front, plentiful moisture, and several shortwaves
moving through in the southerly flow aloft. The chance for rain
will be highest over north/northeast Minnesota Friday night
through Monday with chances decreasing into northern Wisconsin.
There will be a few opportunities for heavy rainfall through
Sunday night and there will be growing concerns for some flooding.
In addition to the heavy rain threat will be chances for severe
storms into Friday night, mainly over our Minnesota zones.

Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday into Monday,
especially over northwest Wisconsin where highs Saturday will be
into the eighties. Far north central Minnesota will see cooler
highs under more clouds and higher chances for rain.

As the upper trough moves further east Monday into mid week, the
low and surface front will shift further north and east gradually
lessening the chance for rain by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Temperatures will also cool quite a bit during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Northeast MN and northwest WI might have widespread sunny skies
and warm, breezy southeast flow as of early this afternoon.
However, a strong low-level jet stream will develop this evening
as low pressure approaches the region from the west. This jet
will develop showers and storms across the region and bringing
deepening low-level humidity, which will translate to lower
ceilings. Strong and cooler flow from Lake Superior may actually
result in lower ceilings and visibility at KDLH and areas near the
Lake first. Expect a transition to widespread IFR to LIFR
conditions by early Friday. Some of the storms overnight could be
strong to severe. The strong jet will result in periods of
significant low-level wind shear. Ceiling and visibilities
will slowly improve Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  59  81  65 /   0  60  50  50
INL  73  58  75  60 /   0  40  50  70
BRD  74  66  87  64 /  10  60  20  50
HYR  77  67  89  68 /  10  60  60  30
ASX  71  62  90  66 /   0  60  60  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142>145.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM CDT Friday
     for LSZ140-141.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Grochocinski




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