Home > Products > State Listing > Minnesota Data
Latest:
 AFDDLH |  AFDMPX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 232124
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
324 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Weak high pressure was moving eastward, and southerly flow had
developed across the entire forecast area. Some parts of west
central MN are now gusting around 15 mph as the western trough
approaches and gradient increases. Increasing winds will spread
into Wisconsin tonight and gradient will keep winds steady
overnight in the 5-15 mph range, but eastern MN and western WI may
have a few hours of somewhat light winds early this evening.
Therefore low temps tonight will be coolest from the St Cloud and
Mille Lacs area to Eau Claire and Ladysmith, where lower 30s are
possible. Farther west and south, upper 30s are likely, and
probably even lower 40s in favored spots of west central and
southwest MN. With increasing winds and warm air advection, temps
will likely be this evening and have continued the non-diurnal
trend for later tonight.

Short wave in Alberta will quickly track east-southeast and it
will make its presence known by mid morning Friday with abundant
mid level cloudiness and some light rain. However the associated
jet max will be weakening slightly as it moves eastward. So there
will be some lift and some moisture but not a whole lot. And the fast
moving system means that the precip should only last a few hours
at most in any given spot. With the clouds and possible rain,
lowered the max temps by a couple degrees, but it still looks like
temps will reach the upper 40s from central MN into northwest WI,
ranging to the mid 50s in southwest MN, maybe even the upper 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Once the short wave goes by tomorrow, upper ridging will ensue
across our area. Models do show another weak short wave in the
northern flow for Sunday, but it looks to be well north of us and
if anything, will only bring a glancing blow of cirrus north and
northeast of the Twin Cities.

The upper ridge will move across MN/WI Monday, setting up the
potential for the warmest day of November. As usual with this kind
of push pull fast pattern, however, there may well be abundant
mid and high clouds to hold temps down. Both the deterministic 12Z
GFS and ECMWF hint this may be the case, and with flattening ridge
on Monday, have not gone too crazy with max temps Monday. Still,
am looking for upper 40s from central MN and northwest WI to the
mid 50s in southwest MN. If there are few clouds, these temps will
be higher.

Once the Monday ridge departs, another northern stream upper low
is slated to move well north of the international border on
Tuesday, with a trough extending into MN/WI, but moisture is
scant and the best lift is to our north, so no pops are in the
forecast. Another northern stream short wave is anticipated for
Thursday, but once again, moisture will be limited. Minimal pops
are in the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday for central MN
into WI, but this may easily change given our fast pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions throughout, as the IFR currently in northwest MN
will not find its way into central MN. Instead. winds were already
switching to southerly in western MN and will do so in eastern MN
and west central WI this afternoon as weak surface high departs.
Gradient picks up so south winds will remain around 7-10 knots
overnight. Next short wave arriving from the northwest Friday will
bring abundant mid level clouds and perhaps 2-4 hours of light
rain, though it should miss southwest MN.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Tigtening gradient should keep winds up
at 5-10 knots tonight. Mid level clouds should become broken by
15z, and there will probably be some spotty light rain developing
around 18z. Upper short wave moves away quickly, so any light rain
should persist only a few hours at most.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW with FROPA and
increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR.Winds S 5-15 kts.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 232116
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
316 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Main concerns for the short term are the slight chance of drizzle
or freezing drizzle in far northeast Minnesota tonight and warm
temperatures with rain chances on Friday.

Mainly clear skies were found across most of the Northland this
afternoon. Warm air advection aloft will continue tonight with 850
mb temperatures already well above freezing for much of the
Northland and a thermal ridge farther west over the western
Dakotas. Isentropic ascent has produced a narrow arc of clouds
from Aitkin County northwest into northwestern Minnesota. Look for
that arc of clouds to expand southeastward as the forcing lifts
northeast. Considerable dry air below the cloud layer was found
across the region with ceilings in the 7 kft range. BUFKIT
soundings from the NAM and RAP over northeast Minnesota keep a
substantial dry layer in place below the cloud deck, which will
limit drizzle/freezing drizzle potential tonight. Have moved the
precip mentions farther north with this forecast and raised
overnight low temperatures above the consensus blend.

A shortwave trough indicated in the RAP analysis and GOES-16
water vapor imagery over Alberta and southern British Columbia
will quickly advance across the Canadian Prairies tonight and into
Minnesota on Friday. Surface low pressure will scoot eastward
across northern Ontario with a cool front sliding through the
Northland. Light rain is forecast to develop along and ahead of
the front and move through the region. Temperatures aloft will
cool behind the front, but a potential for mixed precipitation
will hold off until late afternoon or evening. Very mild
temperatures are expected with lows tonight from the middle 20s
to the middle 30s, 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Continued mild
for Friday with highs near 40 north and the upper 40s southwest,
10 to 18 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The Friday system exits the system fairly quickly Friday night,
leaving some drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow chances for mainly the
Arrowhead and parts of northwest Wisconsin Friday night. This
should not have much of an impact as even if we do get these
weather types, we may only get some patchy ice accumulations. A
weak ridge axis moves across the area on Saturday and Saturday
night, with temperatures on the chilly side. Another shortwave
will move across Manitoba and Ontario late Saturday night and
Sunday, once again bringing a weak trough axis across the area. A
few models are producing precipitation, but most of them are drier
and have little if any precipitation and have left pops out of
the forecast with just an increase in cloud cover. Another ridge
slides through the area Sunday night.

We are finally beginning to get some consistency early next week,
with a longwave trough that swings across the CONUS. The GFS is
still more phased than the ECMWF, but much better than model runs
in the last few days. This should bring some warm temperatures
into the area, with highs rising several degrees above normals.
Late Monday and Monday night into early Tuesday some precipitation
chances will move through the area behind the surface boundary,
so INITIALLY we have rain which then becomes mixed with and
becomes all snow. We may see POPs increase in the next few runs as
long as the consistence continues to increase.

Later in the week confidence remains low, as model differences
become more significant. For now we have some chances for snow in
the Wednesday night/Thursday time range, with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions across the terminals as of issuance time. An area
of LIFR/IFR stratus over northwest MN to swing northeast and is
expected to affect KINL with MVFR/IFR ceilings from 21z-01z. Have
lifted ceilings from observed as KINL may only be brushed with the
edge of this cloud cover, but it may be lower than currently
forecast. Strong southwesterlies are expected to develop aloft
after 00z, producing LLWS at all terminals through at least 11z,
but for some sites it lingers through the TAF period. Chances for
showers spread into the terminals beginning around 10z, but
visibilities should stay MVFR or higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  44  23  29 /  20  50  10   0
INL  29  42  16  25 /  30  60  20   0
BRD  34  46  27  34 /  20  40   0   0
HYR  32  44  27  32 /   0  50   0   0
ASX  30  46  28  32 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 231751
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Precipitation has ended across the Northland this morning with
partly to mostly cloudy skies occurring. A weak low level ridge will
pass through the region today keeping most areas dry but persistent
warm air advection will keep a mix of sun and clouds around with the
most clouds over far northern Minnesota. Forecast soundings show low
level moisture increasing over far northern Minnesota and this may
be enough for some light snow or flurries to occur in the afternoon
along the International Border into the portions of the Arrowhead.
The latest RAP soundings suggest there will be moisture present
through an adequately cold layer for mostly snow this afternoon.
However, as we progress through the evening the combination of
persistent warm air advection and some loss of ice may cause some
freezing drizzle to occur from the Arrowhead west along portions of
the International Border. Much of the guidance has no measurable
precipitation including the SREF which is dry through 06Z. However,
several GFS Ensemble members show light precipitation will develop
and given the overall setup with slightly deeper moisture and the
warm air advection, we have slight chances for freezing drizzle by
mid to late evening.

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper twenties today in
the Arrowhead to lower to middle thirties from the Brainerd Lakes
into northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures will only drop slightly
this evening then rise overnight with most areas seeing higher
temperatures at 6 AM Friday than this afternoon.

A cold front and shortwave will approach the region tonight with a
chance for mainly light rain developing late. There may be a few
pockets that are near freezing which could result in some patchy
freezing rain, but chances look low as temperatures warm. Road
temperatures could still be cold enough tonight for some slick spots
on untreated roads. A better chance for rain will occur Friday as
the front and shortwave move through the Northland, but temperatures
are expected to remain above freezing through late afternoon. Highs
will be in the forties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A weak system exits the region Saturday morning. Another weak system
passes to the northeast of Lake Superior on Sunday missing our
forecast area completely. This system may cause minor snowfall
accumulations in the lake effect snow prone regions of Wisconsin.

Then quite a bit of a flip in the forecast with the latest runs
coming in mostly dry through Monday afternoon.  All resemblances of
any major system have been eradicated with the 00Z runs. There was a
bit of periodicity between each of the deterministic models showing
some signature of a larger system, but that is all but gone. So have
dried out the forecast through much of next week mainly due to the
overall consistency of the 00Z suite - none of which show anything
significant. Even the GFS ensembles have removed the signature. The
upper level pattern has deamplified with zonal flow which of course
could bring some minor system sailing through the region, but as of
now impacts look minimal enough to leave out any mention of
significant weather in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions across the terminals as of issuance time. An area
of LIFR/IFR stratus over northwest MN to swing northeast and is
expected to affect KINL with MVFR/IFR ceilings from 21z-01z. Have
lifted ceilings from observed as KINL may only be brushed with the
edge of this cloud cover, but it may be lower than currently
forecast. Strong southwesterlies are expected to develop aloft
after 00z, producing LLWS at all terminals through at least 11z,
but for some sites it lingers through the TAF period. Chances for
showers spread into the terminals beginning around 10z, but
visibilities should stay MVFR or higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  28  44  25 /   0  20  50  10
INL  29  27  42  19 /  10  20  50  20
BRD  35  32  46  27 /   0  10  40   0
HYR  35  31  44  28 /   0  10  40   0
ASX  35  30  46  29 /   0  10  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231726
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1126 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term is the extent of
high clouds during the day and if that will limit heating
significantly.

Satellite showing abundant cirrus dropping southeast across
Minnesota this morning. Associated with the weak short wave/vort max
over eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota. Will have to carry
this throughout at least the morning and perhaps some thinning out
this afternoon before the next high level Pacific moisture surges
east.

At the surface, there remains a weak surface low moving across
southwest MN and is forecast to exit to the southeast this morning.
This will leave weak high pressure over the eastern cwa with a
developing surface warm front to the west. This pacific warm front
may work into southwest MN this afternoon and with some southerly
wind should be able to downslope some lower 50s to the lee of the
Buffalo Ridge in the southwest. Otherwise temperature are forecast
to remain in the 30s to east and lower to mid 40s over much of MN
portion of the cwa.

Tonight the Pacific front moves east and we expect perhaps an
evening low with steady or slowly rising temperatures over much of
the cwa. Mid/high clouds are expected to be abundant again as the
next frontal system approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any showers appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, if we mix to 925 mb given any of the
deterministic guidance for Monday, highs would reach the mid 60s
to lower 70s across southern and western MN. Record highs are in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. GFS is fastest with the cold front and
brings it through during the afternoon, but the slower GEM and
ECMWF would allow maximum warming potential keeping the front
north through evening. Kept temps about 10 degrees cooler than
the mix down technique given the risk of mid level cloud cover.
However, the official high temperature forecasts are several
degrees above the standard blend due to the included cold
bias corrected grids. Oddly enough MOS and raw model surface
temps are handling this anomalous event well, which leaves me
wondering that maybe temperatures will indeed be in the 60s given
their propensity to underplay these setups. Mechanical mixing
with gusty southwest winds may make up for some of the cloud
cover.

Models have dropped the idea of a large scale storm system early
next week by keeping a split flow in place with progressive cold
fronts. Decided to drop all PoPs in the extended period beyond
Friday given trends and only small scale features embedded in the
fast west northwest flow. These features are not predictable more
than a couple days in advance. The yo-yoing of temperatures will
likely continue into early December, along with drier than normal
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions throughout, as the IFR currently in northwest MN
will not find its way into central MN. Instead. winds were already
switching to southerly in western MN and will do so in eastern MN
and west central WI this afternoon as weak surface high departs.
Gradient picks up so south winds will remain around 7-10 knots
overnight. Next short wave arriving from the northwest Friday will
bring abundant mid level clouds and perhaps 2-4 hours of light
rain, though it should miss southwest MN.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Tigtening gradient should keep winds up
at 5-10 knots tonight. Mid level clouds should become broken by
15z, and there will probably be some spotty light rain developing
around 18z. Upper short wave moves away quickly, so any light rain
should persist only a few hours at most.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW with FROPA and
increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR.Winds S 5-15 kts.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 231121
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
521 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Precipitation has ended across the Northland this morning with
partly to mostly cloudy skies occurring. A weak low level ridge will
pass through the region today keeping most areas dry but persistent
warm air advection will keep a mix of sun and clouds around with the
most clouds over far northern Minnesota. Forecast soundings show low
level moisture increasing over far northern Minnesota and this may
be enough for some light snow or flurries to occur in the afternoon
along the International Border into the portions of the Arrowhead.
The latest RAP soundings suggest there will be moisture present
through an adequately cold layer for mostly snow this afternoon.
However, as we progress through the evening the combination of
persistent warm air advection and some loss of ice may cause some
freezing drizzle to occur from the Arrowhead west along portions of
the International Border. Much of the guidance has no measurable
precipitation including the SREF which is dry through 06Z. However,
several GFS Ensemble members show light precipitation will develop
and given the overall setup with slightly deeper moisture and the
warm air advection, we have slight chances for freezing drizzle by
mid to late evening.

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper twenties today in
the Arrowhead to lower to middle thirties from the Brainerd Lakes
into northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures will only drop slightly
this evening then rise overnight with most areas seeing higher
temperatures at 6 AM Friday than this afternoon.

A cold front and shortwave will approach the region tonight with a
chance for mainly light rain developing late. There may be a few
pockets that are near freezing which could result in some patchy
freezing rain, but chances look low as temperatures warm. Road
temperatures could still be cold enough tonight for some slick spots
on untreated roads. A better chance for rain will occur Friday as
the front and shortwave move through the Northland, but temperatures
are expected to remain above freezing through late afternoon. Highs
will be in the forties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A weak system exits the region Saturday morning. Another weak system
passes to the northeast of Lake Superior on Sunday missing our
forecast area completely. This system may cause minor snowfall
accumulations in the lake effect snow prone regions of Wisconsin.

Then quite a bit of a flip in the forecast with the latest runs
coming in mostly dry through Monday afternoon.  All resemblances of
any major system have been eradicated with the 00Z runs. There was a
bit of periodicity between each of the deterministic models showing
some signature of a larger system, but that is all but gone. So have
dried out the forecast through much of next week mainly due to the
overall consistency of the 00Z suite - none of which show anything
significant. Even the GFS ensembles have removed the signature. The
upper level pattern has deamplified with zonal flow which of course
could bring some minor system sailing through the region, but as of
now impacts look minimal enough to leave out any mention of
significant weather in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

An improving trend expected per satellite microphysics imagery.
Still some lingering IFR/MVFR cigs out there, but TAF sites are
largely VFR. Trended towards a more optimistic forecast as main
cloud band lies north of the Canadian border. LLWS becomes an
issue this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  28  44  25 /   0  20  50  10
INL  29  27  42  19 /  10  20  50  20
BRD  35  32  46  27 /   0  10  50   0
HYR  35  31  45  28 /   0  10  50   0
ASX  35  30  46  29 /   0  10  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231105
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
505 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term is the extent of
high clouds during the day and if that will limit heating
significantly.

Satellite showing abundant cirrus dropping southeast across
Minnesota this morning. Associated with the weak short wave/vort max
over eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota. Will have to carry
this throughout at least the morning and perhaps some thinning out
this afternoon before the next high level Pacific moisture surges
east.

At the surface, there remains a weak surface low moving across
southwest MN and is forecast to exit to the southeast this morning.
This will leave weak high pressure over the eastern cwa with a
developing surface warm front to the west. This pacific warm front
may work into southwest MN this afternoon and with some southerly
wind should be able to downslope some lower 50s to the lee of the
Buffalo Ridge in the southwest. Otherwise temperature are forecast
to remain in the 30s to east and lower to mid 40s over much of MN
portion of the cwa.

Tonight the Pacific front moves east and we expect perhaps an
evening low with steady or slowly rising temperatures over much of
the cwa. Mid/high clouds are expected to be abundant again as the
next frontal system approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any showers appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, if we mix to 925 mb given any of the
deterministic guidance for Monday, highs would reach the mid 60s
to lower 70s across southern and western MN. Record highs are in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. GFS is fastest with the cold front and
brings it through during the afternoon, but the slower GEM and
ECMWF would allow maximum warming potential keeping the front
north through evening. Kept temps about 10 degrees cooler than
the mix down technique given the risk of mid level cloud cover.
However, the official high temperature forecasts are several
degrees above the standard blend due to the included cold
bias corrected grids. Oddly enough MOS and raw model surface
temps are handling this anomalous event well, which leaves me
wondering that maybe temperatures will indeed be in the 60s given
their propensity to underplay these setups. Mechanical mixing
with gusty southwest winds may make up for some of the cloud
cover.

Models have dropped the idea of a large scale storm system early
next week by keeping a split flow in place with progressive cold
fronts. Decided to drop all PoPs in the extended period beyond
Friday given trends and only small scale features embedded in the
fast west northwest flow. These features are not predictable more
than a couple days in advance. The yo-yoing of temperatures will
likely continue into early December, along with drier than normal
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will becoming sw-s through
the day and into tonight, increasing west later tonight. Varying
degree of mid/high level clouds increasing tonight.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will becoming sw-s this
afternoon and tonight. Varying degree of mid/high level clouds
becoming bkn100 by 15z Fri.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW with FROPA and
increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR.Winds S 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231105
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
505 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term is the extent of
high clouds during the day and if that will limit heating
significantly.

Satellite showing abundant cirrus dropping southeast across
Minnesota this morning. Associated with the weak short wave/vort max
over eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota. Will have to carry
this throughout at least the morning and perhaps some thinning out
this afternoon before the next high level Pacific moisture surges
east.

At the surface, there remains a weak surface low moving across
southwest MN and is forecast to exit to the southeast this morning.
This will leave weak high pressure over the eastern cwa with a
developing surface warm front to the west. This pacific warm front
may work into southwest MN this afternoon and with some southerly
wind should be able to downslope some lower 50s to the lee of the
Buffalo Ridge in the southwest. Otherwise temperature are forecast
to remain in the 30s to east and lower to mid 40s over much of MN
portion of the cwa.

Tonight the Pacific front moves east and we expect perhaps an
evening low with steady or slowly rising temperatures over much of
the cwa. Mid/high clouds are expected to be abundant again as the
next frontal system approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any showers appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, if we mix to 925 mb given any of the
deterministic guidance for Monday, highs would reach the mid 60s
to lower 70s across southern and western MN. Record highs are in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. GFS is fastest with the cold front and
brings it through during the afternoon, but the slower GEM and
ECMWF would allow maximum warming potential keeping the front
north through evening. Kept temps about 10 degrees cooler than
the mix down technique given the risk of mid level cloud cover.
However, the official high temperature forecasts are several
degrees above the standard blend due to the included cold
bias corrected grids. Oddly enough MOS and raw model surface
temps are handling this anomalous event well, which leaves me
wondering that maybe temperatures will indeed be in the 60s given
their propensity to underplay these setups. Mechanical mixing
with gusty southwest winds may make up for some of the cloud
cover.

Models have dropped the idea of a large scale storm system early
next week by keeping a split flow in place with progressive cold
fronts. Decided to drop all PoPs in the extended period beyond
Friday given trends and only small scale features embedded in the
fast west northwest flow. These features are not predictable more
than a couple days in advance. The yo-yoing of temperatures will
likely continue into early December, along with drier than normal
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will becoming sw-s through
the day and into tonight, increasing west later tonight. Varying
degree of mid/high level clouds increasing tonight.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will becoming sw-s this
afternoon and tonight. Varying degree of mid/high level clouds
becoming bkn100 by 15z Fri.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW with FROPA and
increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR.Winds S 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term is the extent of
high clouds during the day and if that will limit heating
significantly.

Satellite showing abundant cirrus dropping southeast across
Minnesota this morning. Associated with the weak short wave/vort max
over eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota. Will have to carry
this throughout at least the morning and perhaps some thinning out
this afternoon before the next high level Pacific moisture surges
east.

At the surface, there remains a weak surface low moving across
southwest MN and is forecast to exit to the southeast this morning.
This will leave weak high pressure over the eastern cwa with a
developing surface warm front to the west. This pacific warm front
may work into southwest MN this afternoon and with some southerly
wind should be able to downslope some lower 50s to the lee of the
Buffalo Ridge in the southwest. Otherwise temperature are forecast
to remain in the 30s to east and lower to mid 40s over much of MN
portion of the cwa.

Tonight the Pacific front moves east and we expect perhaps an
evening low with steady or slowly rising temperatures over much of
the cwa. Mid/high clouds are expected to be abundant again as the
next frontal system approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any showers appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, if we mix to 925 mb given any of the
deterministic guidance for Monday, highs would reach the mid 60s
to lower 70s across southern and western MN. Record highs are in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. GFS is fastest with the cold front and
brings it through during the afternoon, but the slower GEM and
ECMWF would allow maximum warming potential keeping the front
north through evening. Kept temps about 10 degrees cooler than
the mix down technique given the risk of mid level cloud cover.
However, the official high temperature forecasts are several
degrees above the standard blend due to the included cold
bias corrected grids. Oddly enough MOS and raw model surface
temps are handling this anomalous event well, which leaves me
wondering that maybe temperatures will indeed be in the 60s given
their propensity to underplay these setups. Mechanical mixing
with gusty southwest winds may make up for some of the cloud
cover.

Models have dropped the idea of a large scale storm system early
next week by keeping a split flow in place with progressive cold
fronts. Decided to drop all PoPs in the extended period beyond
Friday given trends and only small scale features embedded in the
fast west northwest flow. These features are not predictable more
than a couple days in advance. The yo-yoing of temperatures will
likely continue into early December, along with drier than normal
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 230858
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Precipitation has ended across the Northland this morning with
partly to mostly cloudy skies occurring. A weak low level ridge will
pass through the region today keeping most areas dry but persistent
warm air advection will keep a mix of sun and clouds around with the
most clouds over far northern Minnesota. Forecast soundings show low
level moisture increasing over far northern Minnesota and this may
be enough for some light snow or flurries to occur in the afternoon
along the International Border into the portions of the Arrowhead.
The latest RAP soundings suggest there will be moisture present
through an adequately cold layer for mostly snow this afternoon.
However, as we progress through the evening the combination of
persistent warm air advection and some loss of ice may cause some
freezing drizzle to occur from the Arrowhead west along portions of
the International Border. Much of the guidance has no measurable
precipitation including the SREF which is dry through 06Z. However,
several GFS Ensemble members show light precipitation will develop
and given the overall setup with slightly deeper moisture and the
warm air advection, we have slight chances for freezing drizzle by
mid to late evening.

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper twenties today in
the Arrowhead to lower to middle thirties from the Brainerd Lakes
into northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures will only drop slightly
this evening then rise overnight with most areas seeing higher
temperatures at 6 AM Friday than this afternoon.

A cold front and shortwave will approach the region tonight with a
chance for mainly light rain developing late. There may be a few
pockets that are near freezing which could result in some patchy
freezing rain, but chances look low as temperatures warm. Road
temperatures could still be cold enough tonight for some slick spots
on untreated roads. A better chance for rain will occur Friday as
the front and shortwave move through the Northland, but temperatures
are expected to remain above freezing through late afternoon. Highs
will be in the forties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A weak system exits the region Saturday morning. Another weak system
passes to the northeast of Lake Superior on Sunday missing our
forecast area completely. This system may cause minor snowfall
accumulations in the lake effect snow prone regions of Wisconsin.

Then quite a bit of a flip in the forecast with the latest runs
coming in mostly dry through Monday afternoon.  All resemblances of
any major system have been eradicated with the 00Z runs. There was a
bit of periodicity between each of the deterministic models showing
some signature of a larger system, but that is all but gone. So have
dried out the forecast through much of next week mainly due to the
overall consistency of the 00Z suite - none of which show anything
significant. Even the GFS ensembles have removed the signature. The
upper level pattern has deamplified with zonal flow which of course
could bring some minor system sailing through the region, but as of
now impacts look minimal enough to leave out any mention of
significant weather in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A difficult and low confidence aviation forecast. Difficulty
mainly arises in lingering low level moisture in a weakly forced
environment. Flight categories could go a number of different
directions in a fairly small area, so played the northern TAF
sites more pessimistic as they are nearer to a weak frontal
boundary while the southern sites are more optimistic. VFR is
currently predominant though non-TAF sites suggest there is a lot
of MVFR out there. So, there is definitely potential for sub-VFR
conditions through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  28  44  25 /   0  20  50  10
INL  29  27  42  19 /  10  20  50  20
BRD  35  32  46  27 /   0  10  50   0
HYR  35  31  45  28 /   0  10  50   0
ASX  35  30  46  29 /   0  10  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe




000
FXUS63 KDLH 230547
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1147 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A fast moving clipper is moving across the area this afternoon and
evening. The surface low is currently over northeast North Dakota
southeast of Minot, and will move east-southeast this evening across
Minnesota and weaken before moving into central Wisconsin by
Thursday morning.  This system is somewhat moisture starved and is
not particularly vigorous and weakens as it moves across the area,
so do not expect much out of it- in fact, the lowest visibility I
have seen is an hour or two or no worse than a half mile, with a few
more hours of 1-2sm.  This is unlikely to produce much more than an
inch of snow, so have maintained the forecast fairly close to what
we had before, as a high probability, low QPF forecast.  This system
moves through the area fairly quickly this evening, with clearing
skies expected later this evening and overnight.  This will allow
temperatures to drop into the 10-20 degree range once again, with
some colder spots possible once again.  Thursday to be fairly quiet
with a surface ridge moving across during the morning, and another
warm air advection wing moving in during the afternoon.  It has a
farther north track, and is even weaker and more moisture starved
than the current feature, so am only carrying some flurries along
the Canadian border during the afternoon. Warm air advection to
push temperatures into the upper 20s north with some mid 30s
across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A trough will dig across central Canada Thursday evening into
Ontario on Friday. At the surface, low pressure will track from
northern Saskatchewan southeastward into Ontario. Initially the warm
front associated with the low will lift across northern Minnesota.
The warm air will overrun cold moist air over the Minnesota
Arrowhead, which will lead to a period of freezing drizzle and
potentially freezing rain. Bumped precipitation chances toward the
NAM guidance, but these chances will need to be increased if things
continue to trend toward the current ARW/NMM. The NAM seemed like a
good compromise as the GFS/ECWMF/CMC keep the precip shield further
north. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed across parts of the
Minnesota Arrowhead if confidence increases in the freezing
rain/drizzle threat. The cold front associated with the low will
move through the CWA throughout the day Friday. Temperatures will be
warm enough for precipitation to be all rain. Highs on Friday range
from the low 40s along the International Border, to the upper 40s
across southern portions of the CWA.

Cold northwesterly air will advect into the region as the low exits,
and high pressure builds in from the west. This will bring clearing
skies to much of the region with much cooler temperatures in
comparison to Friday. Highs range from the low to mid 20s along the
International Border, to the mid 30s in southern locations. Flow
will be favorable for lake effect snow across portions of the South
Shore of Lake Superior.

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes on
Sunday. This will advect warm 850 hPa air into the region as flow
becomes southwesterly. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs
range from the low 30s to the low 40s. Temperatures will continue to
warm on Monday as the next system tracks across central Canada and
its warm front lifts into Ontario. Highs range from the upper 30s to
the mid 40s.

After Monday, the forecast becomes uncertain as the latest set of
guidance has deviated considerably from previous runs. The previous
set of guidance suggested some sort of phasing going on between the
trough digging into Intermountain West and a shortwave moving across
central Canada. This would bring potentially significant snowfall
accumulations to the CWA. Whereas, the current set of guidance
depicts these two features remaining separate (minus the CMC), and
less in the way of snowfall. Due to the large discrepancy kept
chances of snowfall, but not confident in the forecast past Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A difficult and low confidence aviation forecast. Difficulty
mainly arises in lingering low level moisture in a weakly forced
environment. Flight categories could go a number of different
directions in a fairly small area, so played the northern TAF
sites more pessimistic as they are nearer to a weak frontal
boundary while the southern sites are more optimistic. VFR is
currently predominant though non-TAF sites suggest there is a lot
of MVFR out there. So, there is definitely potential for sub-VFR
conditions through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  31  28  44 /  70   0  10  40
INL  12  29  27  42 /  30  10  10  50
BRD  18  34  33  46 /  60   0   0  40
HYR  17  34  30  47 /  70   0   0  40
ASX  20  34  30  48 /  70   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Wolfe




000
FXUS63 KDLH 230547
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1147 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A fast moving clipper is moving across the area this afternoon and
evening. The surface low is currently over northeast North Dakota
southeast of Minot, and will move east-southeast this evening across
Minnesota and weaken before moving into central Wisconsin by
Thursday morning.  This system is somewhat moisture starved and is
not particularly vigorous and weakens as it moves across the area,
so do not expect much out of it- in fact, the lowest visibility I
have seen is an hour or two or no worse than a half mile, with a few
more hours of 1-2sm.  This is unlikely to produce much more than an
inch of snow, so have maintained the forecast fairly close to what
we had before, as a high probability, low QPF forecast.  This system
moves through the area fairly quickly this evening, with clearing
skies expected later this evening and overnight.  This will allow
temperatures to drop into the 10-20 degree range once again, with
some colder spots possible once again.  Thursday to be fairly quiet
with a surface ridge moving across during the morning, and another
warm air advection wing moving in during the afternoon.  It has a
farther north track, and is even weaker and more moisture starved
than the current feature, so am only carrying some flurries along
the Canadian border during the afternoon. Warm air advection to
push temperatures into the upper 20s north with some mid 30s
across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A trough will dig across central Canada Thursday evening into
Ontario on Friday. At the surface, low pressure will track from
northern Saskatchewan southeastward into Ontario. Initially the warm
front associated with the low will lift across northern Minnesota.
The warm air will overrun cold moist air over the Minnesota
Arrowhead, which will lead to a period of freezing drizzle and
potentially freezing rain. Bumped precipitation chances toward the
NAM guidance, but these chances will need to be increased if things
continue to trend toward the current ARW/NMM. The NAM seemed like a
good compromise as the GFS/ECWMF/CMC keep the precip shield further
north. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed across parts of the
Minnesota Arrowhead if confidence increases in the freezing
rain/drizzle threat. The cold front associated with the low will
move through the CWA throughout the day Friday. Temperatures will be
warm enough for precipitation to be all rain. Highs on Friday range
from the low 40s along the International Border, to the upper 40s
across southern portions of the CWA.

Cold northwesterly air will advect into the region as the low exits,
and high pressure builds in from the west. This will bring clearing
skies to much of the region with much cooler temperatures in
comparison to Friday. Highs range from the low to mid 20s along the
International Border, to the mid 30s in southern locations. Flow
will be favorable for lake effect snow across portions of the South
Shore of Lake Superior.

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes on
Sunday. This will advect warm 850 hPa air into the region as flow
becomes southwesterly. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs
range from the low 30s to the low 40s. Temperatures will continue to
warm on Monday as the next system tracks across central Canada and
its warm front lifts into Ontario. Highs range from the upper 30s to
the mid 40s.

After Monday, the forecast becomes uncertain as the latest set of
guidance has deviated considerably from previous runs. The previous
set of guidance suggested some sort of phasing going on between the
trough digging into Intermountain West and a shortwave moving across
central Canada. This would bring potentially significant snowfall
accumulations to the CWA. Whereas, the current set of guidance
depicts these two features remaining separate (minus the CMC), and
less in the way of snowfall. Due to the large discrepancy kept
chances of snowfall, but not confident in the forecast past Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A difficult and low confidence aviation forecast. Difficulty
mainly arises in lingering low level moisture in a weakly forced
environment. Flight categories could go a number of different
directions in a fairly small area, so played the northern TAF
sites more pessimistic as they are nearer to a weak frontal
boundary while the southern sites are more optimistic. VFR is
currently predominant though non-TAF sites suggest there is a lot
of MVFR out there. So, there is definitely potential for sub-VFR
conditions through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  31  28  44 /  70   0  10  40
INL  12  29  27  42 /  30  10  10  50
BRD  18  34  33  46 /  60   0   0  40
HYR  17  34  30  47 /  70   0   0  40
ASX  20  34  30  48 /  70   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Wolfe




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230514
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1114 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.Updated for 06Z Aviation discussion...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A few snow showers are dropping southeast across northeast MN and
northwest/west central WI late this afternoon. Not too many obs
are reporting snow and dry air is likely the culprit. Those areas
that are reporting snow have seen visibilities drop to a mile or
two, however, which may allow for a quick dusting.

Any snow will end this evening as the short wave exits to the
east. Satellite is showing pretty quick clearing across the
eastern Dakotas, so expecting skies to become clear overnight as
a high pressure ridge passes by. After a weakness in the pressure
gradient tonight, southwest flow will resume for Thanksgiving Day.
Plenty of sun and relatively mild temperatures ranging from the
mid-upper 30s north of I-94 to nearing 50 downwind of the Buffalo
Ridge will make for a good day weatherwise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any rain appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this. Raised highs a bit for Friday.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, some guidance are indicating 60s across
southern MN Monday. However, model consistency through next week
has been poor and has been in the Day 4-7 period for the last few
weeks. Thus, raised temps several degrees Sunday and Monday but
kept them well short of the actual potential given high model
variability.

GFS now favors a stronger northern system and swings a front
through here Monday evening with no hint at any system in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Many GEFS members agree, but there
are still a few hinting at some rain or snow Tuesday similar to
the Canadian. The ECMWF has slowed considerably and while it still
has a stronger system passing to the south eventually, it doesn`t
arrive until after the current forecast period. Bottom line here
is confidence is very low beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230008
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
608 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 605 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A few snow showers are dropping southeast across northeast MN and
northwest/west central WI late this afternoon. Not too many obs
are reporting snow and dry air is likely the culprit. Those areas
that are reporting snow have seen visibilities drop to a mile or
two, however, which may allow for a quick dusting.

Any snow will end this evening as the short wave exits to the
east. Satellite is showing pretty quick clearing across the
eastern Dakotas, so expecting skies to become clear overnight as
a high pressure ridge passes by. After a weakness in the pressure
gradient tonight, southwest flow will resume for Thanksgiving Day.
Plenty of sun and relatively mild temperatures ranging from the
mid-upper 30s north of I-94 to nearing 50 downwind of the Buffalo
Ridge will make for a good day weatherwise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any rain appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this. Raised highs a bit for Friday.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, some guidance are indicating 60s across
southern MN Monday. However, model consistency through next week
has been poor and has been in the Day 4-7 period for the last few
weeks. Thus, raised temps several degrees Sunday and Monday but
kept them well short of the actual potential given high model
variability.

GFS now favors a stronger northern system and swings a front
through here Monday evening with no hint at any system in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Many GEFS members agree, but there
are still a few hinting at some rain or snow Tuesday similar to
the Canadian. The ECMWF has slowed considerably and while it still
has a stronger system passing to the south eventually, it doesn`t
arrive until after the current forecast period. Bottom line here
is confidence is very low beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Southerly winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Southerly winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230008
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
608 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 605 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A few snow showers are dropping southeast across northeast MN and
northwest/west central WI late this afternoon. Not too many obs
are reporting snow and dry air is likely the culprit. Those areas
that are reporting snow have seen visibilities drop to a mile or
two, however, which may allow for a quick dusting.

Any snow will end this evening as the short wave exits to the
east. Satellite is showing pretty quick clearing across the
eastern Dakotas, so expecting skies to become clear overnight as
a high pressure ridge passes by. After a weakness in the pressure
gradient tonight, southwest flow will resume for Thanksgiving Day.
Plenty of sun and relatively mild temperatures ranging from the
mid-upper 30s north of I-94 to nearing 50 downwind of the Buffalo
Ridge will make for a good day weatherwise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any rain appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this. Raised highs a bit for Friday.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, some guidance are indicating 60s across
southern MN Monday. However, model consistency through next week
has been poor and has been in the Day 4-7 period for the last few
weeks. Thus, raised temps several degrees Sunday and Monday but
kept them well short of the actual potential given high model
variability.

GFS now favors a stronger northern system and swings a front
through here Monday evening with no hint at any system in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Many GEFS members agree, but there
are still a few hinting at some rain or snow Tuesday similar to
the Canadian. The ECMWF has slowed considerably and while it still
has a stronger system passing to the south eventually, it doesn`t
arrive until after the current forecast period. Bottom line here
is confidence is very low beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Southerly winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Southerly winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 222346
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
546 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A fast moving clipper is moving across the area this afternoon and
evening. The surface low is currently over northeast North Dakota
southeast of Minot, and will move east-southeast this evening across
Minnesota and weaken before moving into central Wisconsin by
Thursday morning.  This system is somewhat moisture starved and is
not particularly vigorous and weakens as it moves across the area,
so do not expect much out of it- in fact, the lowest visibility I
have seen is an hour or two or no worse than a half mile, with a few
more hours of 1-2sm.  This is unlikely to produce much more than an
inch of snow, so have maintained the forecast fairly close to what
we had before, as a high probability, low QPF forecast.  This system
moves through the area fairly quickly this evening, with clearing
skies expected later this evening and overnight.  This will allow
temperatures to drop into the 10-20 degree range once again, with
some colder spots possible once again.  Thursday to be fairly quiet
with a surface ridge moving across during the morning, and another
warm air advection wing moving in during the afternoon.  It has a
farther north track, and is even weaker and more moisture starved
than the current feature, so am only carrying some flurries along
the Canadian border during the afternoon. Warm air advection to
push temperatures into the upper 20s north with some mid 30s
across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A trough will dig across central Canada Thursday evening into
Ontario on Friday. At the surface, low pressure will track from
northern Saskatchewan southeastward into Ontario. Initially the warm
front associated with the low will lift across northern Minnesota.
The warm air will overrun cold moist air over the Minnesota
Arrowhead, which will lead to a period of freezing drizzle and
potentially freezing rain. Bumped precipitation chances toward the
NAM guidance, but these chances will need to be increased if things
continue to trend toward the current ARW/NMM. The NAM seemed like a
good compromise as the GFS/ECWMF/CMC keep the precip shield further
north. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed across parts of the
Minnesota Arrowhead if confidence increases in the freezing
rain/drizzle threat. The cold front associated with the low will
move through the CWA throughout the day Friday. Temperatures will be
warm enough for precipitation to be all rain. Highs on Friday range
from the low 40s along the International Border, to the upper 40s
across southern portions of the CWA.

Cold northwesterly air will advect into the region as the low exits,
and high pressure builds in from the west. This will bring clearing
skies to much of the region with much cooler temperatures in
comparison to Friday. Highs range from the low to mid 20s along the
International Border, to the mid 30s in southern locations. Flow
will be favorable for lake effect snow across portions of the South
Shore of Lake Superior.

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes on
Sunday. This will advect warm 850 hPa air into the region as flow
becomes southwesterly. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs
range from the low 30s to the low 40s. Temperatures will continue to
warm on Monday as the next system tracks across central Canada and
its warm front lifts into Ontario. Highs range from the upper 30s to
the mid 40s.

After Monday, the forecast becomes uncertain as the latest set of
guidance has deviated considerably from previous runs. The previous
set of guidance suggested some sort of phasing going on between the
trough digging into Intermountain West and a shortwave moving across
central Canada. This would bring potentially significant snowfall
accumulations to the CWA. Whereas, the current set of guidance
depicts these two features remaining separate (minus the CMC), and
less in the way of snowfall. Due to the large discrepancy kept
chances of snowfall, but not confident in the forecast past Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A fast moving clipper is bringing a period of IFR visibilities and
MVFR ceilings in light snow. The snow has already ended for KINL,
and is only expected to last a few more hours for the remaining
sites. Behind the snow, MVFR ceilings are expected to linger for
several hours before slowly clearing from west to east, with all
sites VFR by 06z in general. KINL to stay MVFR for longer as a
lingering boundary keeps the clouds nearby. Flurries possible
there again after 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  31  28  44 /  70   0  10  40
INL  12  29  27  42 /  30  10  10  50
BRD  18  34  33  46 /  30   0   0  40
HYR  17  34  30  47 /  70   0   0  40
ASX  20  34  30  48 /  60   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 222346
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
546 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A fast moving clipper is moving across the area this afternoon and
evening. The surface low is currently over northeast North Dakota
southeast of Minot, and will move east-southeast this evening across
Minnesota and weaken before moving into central Wisconsin by
Thursday morning.  This system is somewhat moisture starved and is
not particularly vigorous and weakens as it moves across the area,
so do not expect much out of it- in fact, the lowest visibility I
have seen is an hour or two or no worse than a half mile, with a few
more hours of 1-2sm.  This is unlikely to produce much more than an
inch of snow, so have maintained the forecast fairly close to what
we had before, as a high probability, low QPF forecast.  This system
moves through the area fairly quickly this evening, with clearing
skies expected later this evening and overnight.  This will allow
temperatures to drop into the 10-20 degree range once again, with
some colder spots possible once again.  Thursday to be fairly quiet
with a surface ridge moving across during the morning, and another
warm air advection wing moving in during the afternoon.  It has a
farther north track, and is even weaker and more moisture starved
than the current feature, so am only carrying some flurries along
the Canadian border during the afternoon. Warm air advection to
push temperatures into the upper 20s north with some mid 30s
across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A trough will dig across central Canada Thursday evening into
Ontario on Friday. At the surface, low pressure will track from
northern Saskatchewan southeastward into Ontario. Initially the warm
front associated with the low will lift across northern Minnesota.
The warm air will overrun cold moist air over the Minnesota
Arrowhead, which will lead to a period of freezing drizzle and
potentially freezing rain. Bumped precipitation chances toward the
NAM guidance, but these chances will need to be increased if things
continue to trend toward the current ARW/NMM. The NAM seemed like a
good compromise as the GFS/ECWMF/CMC keep the precip shield further
north. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed across parts of the
Minnesota Arrowhead if confidence increases in the freezing
rain/drizzle threat. The cold front associated with the low will
move through the CWA throughout the day Friday. Temperatures will be
warm enough for precipitation to be all rain. Highs on Friday range
from the low 40s along the International Border, to the upper 40s
across southern portions of the CWA.

Cold northwesterly air will advect into the region as the low exits,
and high pressure builds in from the west. This will bring clearing
skies to much of the region with much cooler temperatures in
comparison to Friday. Highs range from the low to mid 20s along the
International Border, to the mid 30s in southern locations. Flow
will be favorable for lake effect snow across portions of the South
Shore of Lake Superior.

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes on
Sunday. This will advect warm 850 hPa air into the region as flow
becomes southwesterly. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs
range from the low 30s to the low 40s. Temperatures will continue to
warm on Monday as the next system tracks across central Canada and
its warm front lifts into Ontario. Highs range from the upper 30s to
the mid 40s.

After Monday, the forecast becomes uncertain as the latest set of
guidance has deviated considerably from previous runs. The previous
set of guidance suggested some sort of phasing going on between the
trough digging into Intermountain West and a shortwave moving across
central Canada. This would bring potentially significant snowfall
accumulations to the CWA. Whereas, the current set of guidance
depicts these two features remaining separate (minus the CMC), and
less in the way of snowfall. Due to the large discrepancy kept
chances of snowfall, but not confident in the forecast past Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A fast moving clipper is bringing a period of IFR visibilities and
MVFR ceilings in light snow. The snow has already ended for KINL,
and is only expected to last a few more hours for the remaining
sites. Behind the snow, MVFR ceilings are expected to linger for
several hours before slowly clearing from west to east, with all
sites VFR by 06z in general. KINL to stay MVFR for longer as a
lingering boundary keeps the clouds nearby. Flurries possible
there again after 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  31  28  44 /  70   0  10  40
INL  12  29  27  42 /  30  10  10  50
BRD  18  34  33  46 /  30   0   0  40
HYR  17  34  30  47 /  70   0   0  40
ASX  20  34  30  48 /  60   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 222138
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
338 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A fast moving clipper is moving across the area this afternoon and
evening. The surface low is currently over northeast North Dakota
southeast of Minot, and will move east-southeast this evening across
Minnesota and weaken before moving into central Wisconsin by
Thursday morning.  This system is somewhat moisture starved and is
not particularly vigorous and weakens as it moves across the area,
so do not expect much out of it- in fact, the lowest visibility I
have seen is an hour or two or no worse than a half mile, with a few
more hours of 1-2sm.  This is unlikely to produce much more than an
inch of snow, so have maintained the forecast fairly close to what
we had before, as a high probability, low QPF forecast.  This system
moves through the area fairly quickly this evening, with clearing
skies expected later this evening and overnight.  This will allow
temperatures to drop into the 10-20 degree range once again, with
some colder spots possible once again.  Thursday to be fairly quiet
with a surface ridge moving across during the morning, and another
warm air advection wing moving in during the afternoon.  It has a
farther north track, and is even weaker and more moisture starved
than the current feature, so am only carrying some flurries along
the Canadian border during the afternoon. Warm air advection to
push temperatures into the upper 20s north with some mid 30s
across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A trough will dig across central Canada Thursday evening into
Ontario on Friday. At the surface, low pressure will track from
northern Saskatchewan southeastward into Ontario. Initially the warm
front associated with the low will lift across northern Minnesota.
The warm air will overrun cold moist air over the Minnesota
Arrowhead, which will lead to a period of freezing drizzle and
potentially freezing rain. Bumped precipitation chances toward the
NAM guidance, but these chances will need to be increased if things
continue to trend toward the current ARW/NMM. The NAM seemed like a
good compromise as the GFS/ECWMF/CMC keep the precip shield further
north. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed across parts of the
Minnesota Arrowhead if confidence increases in the freezing
rain/drizzle threat. The cold front associated with the low will
move through the CWA throughout the day Friday. Temperatures will be
warm enough for precipitation to be all rain. Highs on Friday range
from the low 40s along the International Border, to the upper 40s
across southern portions of the CWA.

Cold northwesterly air will advect into the region as the low exits,
and high pressure builds in from the west. This will bring clearing
skies to much of the region with much cooler temperatures in
comparison to Friday. Highs range from the low to mid 20s along the
International Border, to the mid 30s in southern locations. Flow
will be favorable for lake effect snow across portions of the South
Shore of Lake Superior.

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes on
Sunday. This will advect warm 850 hPa air into the region as flow
becomes southwesterly. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs
range from the low 30s to the low 40s. Temperatures will continue to
warm on Monday as the next system tracks across central Canada and
its warm front lifts into Ontario. Highs range from the upper 30s to
the mid 40s.

After Monday, the forecast becomes uncertain as the latest set of
guidance has deviated considerably from previous runs. The previous
set of guidance suggested some sort of phasing going on between the
trough digging into Intermountain West and a shortwave moving across
central Canada. This would bring potentially significant snowfall
accumulations to the CWA. Whereas, the current set of guidance
depicts these two features remaining separate (minus the CMC), and
less in the way of snowfall. Due to the large discrepancy kept
chances of snowfall, but not confident in the forecast past Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Snow will spread in from northwest to southeast this afternoon
into the evening hours as a shortwave quickly moves through. This
will bring lowering ceilings to MVFR levels, generally between
1200-2500 feet. In addition, snow will reduce visibility to
MVFR/IFR conditions. Confident on the ceilings as the latest
guidance is in good agreement with current observations. Less
confident on visibilities, but utilized upstream observations to
get an idea on how low visibilities will drop at times.

Snow will end at all terminals between 01-06Z. Afterwards VFR
conditions are expected as high pressure builds in.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  31  28  44 /  70   0  10  40
INL  12  29  27  42 /  30  10  10  50
BRD  18  34  33  46 /  30   0   0  40
HYR  17  34  30  47 /  70   0   0  40
ASX  20  34  30  48 /  60   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 222045
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A few snow showers are dropping southeast across northeast MN and
northwest/west central WI late this afternoon. Not too many obs
are reporting snow and dry air is likely the culprit. Those areas
that are reporting snow have seen visibilities drop to a mile or
two, however, which may allow for a quick dusting.

Any snow will end this evening as the short wave exits to the
east. Satellite is showing pretty quick clearing across the
eastern Dakotas, so expecting skies to become clear overnight as
a high pressure ridge passes by. After a weakness in the pressure
gradient tonight, southwest flow will resume for Thanksgiving Day.
Plenty of sun and relatively mild temperatures ranging from the
mid-upper 30s north of I-94 to nearing 50 downwind of the Buffalo
Ridge will make for a good day weatherwise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any rain appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this. Raised highs a bit for Friday.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, some guidance are indicating 60s across
southern MN Monday. However, model consistency through next week
has been poor and has been in the Day 4-7 period for the last few
weeks. Thus, raised temps several degrees Sunday and Monday but
kept them well short of the actual potential given high model
variability.

GFS now favors a stronger northern system and swings a front
through here Monday evening with no hint at any system in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Many GEFS members agree, but there
are still a few hinting at some rain or snow Tuesday similar to
the Canadian. The ECMWF has slowed considerably and while it still
has a stronger system passing to the south eventually, it doesn`t
arrive until after the current forecast period. Bottom line here
is confidence is very low beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Some light snow or
flurries are possible this afternoon and early evening north of
I-94 with little or no accumulation. Not even confident on any
visibility reductions at any of the MPX TAF locations. Clearing
skies expected late tonight. Winds will veer northwest behind a
front tonight and then back southwest Thursday.

KMSP...Winds may veer northwest behind a front overnight for a
time if speeds remain greater than 4 to 5 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 5-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221738 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1138 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term will be timing and
extent of light snow event this afternoon/evening.

Few residual stratocumulus exiting the far eastern cwa. Meanwhile,
a large area of Pacific moisture is spilling over the western CONUS
ridge across the Dakotas. Expect this trend to continue through the
morning with increasing mid/high level clouds expected to move east.
Mostly cloudy conditions by noon over the MN portion of the
cwa. This should put an end to much temperature recovery, with the
exception to the lee of the Buffalo Ridge to the southwest, where
some downsloping will occur. Isentropic lift increases over the
northern cwa this afternoon and spreads east into west central WI
for the evening. We do saturate to at least 4K feet in best area
of lift so we should be able to generate some light snow, even
with the rather dry start this morning. It will take much of the
day to saturate and will continue to carry a slight chance PoP as
far south and west as the metro this afternoon into the evening.
More than likely a few flurries will be the result here with
perhaps around one half inch along the northeast periphery of the
cwa, along the Highway 8 corridor in west central Wisconsin.

We expect a general clearing trend again from west to east during
the night as the weak wave moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Not much of a change expected in the weather pattern during the long
term period, with relatively fast flow expected across the CONUS that
will send systems across the area every couple of days.  We will be
under the influence of mainly a mild Pacific airmass though will
continue to see brief one or two day cool downs in the wake of each
system. There are no systems of significance through the weekend, but
the GFS/ECMWF have a potential trouble maker for us Tuesday/Tuesday
night next week, but as will be explained to come, it`s a bit early
to get overly excited about that system yet.

Not much has changed with the forecast Thursday and Friday. Friday
still looks to offer a chance of showers as a cold front associated
with another surface low tracking across southern Canada moves
across MN and western WI during the afternoon. Greatest precip
potential looks to be from northern MN into northern WI, closer to
the surface low and better PV advection from the shortwave forcing
that low. The Canadian and even SREF keep precip north of the MPX
area, but plenty of other guidance shows a line of showers
developing along the eastward advancing cold front from central MN
into west central WI, which is where the highest pops continue to be
centered. Still a bit of uncertainty with highs on Friday and the
wild card here is the cloud cover. Most guidance pushes highs above
the 50 mark up to about the I-94 corridor, but the NAM is painting a
different story.  The NAM brings dense stratus up into the area
Friday night, which is certainly possible with surface dewpoints
increasing into the low 40s. With dense stratus around all day, the
NAM is a good 10 degrees colder than us and the rest of the guidance
suite. This possibility is the one thing that that makes us hesitant
to say MSP will finally crack that 50 degree mark this month on
Friday.

Behind this front we will again see blustery northwest winds, though
winds do not look as strong as what was seen early Tuesday morning.
The one change noted over the last few model runs for this weekend
is they are considerably warmer. Gone are the -8c to -12c h85 temps
for Saturday, which are now forecast to be 0c to -8c, with h85 temps
surging above 0c by Sunday. The result, is our cold day Saturday is
still looking to have highs in the mid 30s to low 40s as opposed to
upper 20s to mid 30s like we were seeing a couple of days ago.
Sunday is even more dramatic, with most of the area looking to
finish off the holiday weekend with highs back into the 40s.

Next week is when things look potentially interesting, at least from
the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF. As the ridge bringing
record warmth to the southwest for Thanksgiving begins to breakdown
and slide into TX, models show a trough coming into the west coast
Sunday/Sunday night. This through will emerge from the Rockies
Monday night, with a surface cyclone likely developing over the
Plains and heading our direction Tuesday. Though the ECMWF/GFS are
in pretty good agreement with each other for this far out, GEFS QPF
plumes for Alexandria show that the operational GFS only has one
other GEFS member showing a similar forecast. In this pattern over
the last couple weeks, the models really have not started to settle
in on a forecast and ensembles begin to show limited spread until we
have hit the day4 potion of the forecast. So although the GFS and
ECMWF are showing a decent snow storm next week for western and
central MN, it`s probably too early to start getting excited about
details until we get to models run Friday night or Saturday, though
it is encouraging to see that at this point, the models are not
sending yet another surface low across southern Canada and have this
one at least closer to home. Behind this wave though we look to
quickly return to a mild Pacific airmass, with winter looking to
still tease us at this point as opposed to setting up shop for an
extended period of time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Some light snow or
flurries are possible this afternoon and early evening north of
I-94 with little or no accumulation. Not even confident on any
visibility reductions at any of the MPX TAF locations. Clearing
skies expected late tonight. Winds will veer northwest behind a
front tonight and then back southwest Thursday.

KMSP...Winds may veer northwest behind a front overnight for a
time if speeds remain greater than 4 to 5 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 5-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 221720
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1120 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Please see the 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main focus is on the light snow forecast for later today, but
otherwise Thanksgiving Day will be free of any precipitation to
affect travel related to the holiday.

We will be recovering from yesterday`s cold snap today. An area
of high pressure will move through the Northland early today,
bringing milder air and a period of sunshine. Highs will be back
to the lower to middle 20s, and without the strong wind. A weak
area of low pressure will move into the Dakotas today and spread
clouds and eventually light snow into the Northland from the west.
There is high confidence in this snow, and high confidence the
snowfall amounts will be less than one inch. The snow will mainly
affect the Northland during the middle of the afternoon through
the evening, and while the snowfall will be light, it could make
for icy conditions for travelers on the roads.

Another area of high pressure will move through later today and
early Thursday. Southerly flow will develop Thursday, bringing
warmer air into the region. Expect partly cloudy skies and highs
ranging from the middle 20s near the Canadian border to the lower
30s from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A strengthening system passes just to the north of the Canadian
Border on Friday evening. As it approaches, it overruns cold air
causing a freezing rain threat in the Minnesota Arrowhead on
Thursday evening through the system is fairly starved for moisture
at this time, so expect only light ice accumulations. The
sharpest point of the upper level forcing trough passes overhead
Friday afternoon as we`re solidly in the warm sector causing just
cold rain before transitioning over to snow Friday night with only
light accumulations expected as colder air funnels in.

High pressure builds through Monday before the next system begins
to move into the area. A potential frontogenetic band sets up
near the forecast area Monday evening which causes some concern
especially if the more aggressive GFS deepens a low over
Wisconsin sending a deformation band over areas that may have
previously experienced some snowfall in the frontogenetic band.
Either way, there still is a lot of uncertainty in this timeframe
since there still is a lot of disagreement between models. It does
bear watching though as the 00Z GFS solution would be quite
impactful.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Snow will spread in from northwest to southeast this afternoon
into the evening hours as a shortwave quickly moves through. This
will bring lowering ceilings to MVFR levels, generally between
1200-2500 feet. In addition, snow will reduce visibility to
MVFR/IFR conditions. Confident on the ceilings as the latest
guidance is in good agreement with current observations. Less
confident on visibilities, but utilized upstream observations to
get an idea on how low visibilities will drop at times.

Snow will end at all terminals between 01-06Z. Afterwards VFR
conditions are expected as high pressure builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  17  30  27 /  60  80   0  10
INL  21  13  27  26 /  60  30  10  10
BRD  26  19  34  31 /  40  20   0  10
HYR  27  19  34  28 /  50  70   0   0
ASX  29  21  34  28 /  50  60   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST
     Thursday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WL
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KDLH 221212
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
612 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main focus is on the light snow forecast for later today, but
otherwise Thanksgiving Day will be free of any precipitation to
affect travel related to the holiday.

We will be recovering from yesterday`s cold snap today. An area
of high pressure will move through the Northland early today,
bringing milder air and a period of sunshine. Highs will be back
to the lower to middle 20s, and without the strong wind. A weak
area of low pressure will move into the Dakotas today and spread
clouds and eventually light snow into the Northland from the west.
There is high confidence in this snow, and high confidence the
snowfall amounts will be less than one inch. The snow will mainly
affect the Northland during the middle of the afternoon through
the evening, and while the snowfall will be light, it could make
for icy conditions for travelers on the roads.

Another area of high pressure will move through later today and
early Thursday. Southerly flow will develop Thursday, bringing
warmer air into the region. Expect partly cloudy skies and highs
ranging from the middle 20s near the Canadian border to the lower
30s from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A strengthening system passes just to the north of the Canadian
Border on Friday evening. As it approaches, it overruns cold air
causing a freezing rain threat in the Minnesota Arrowhead on
Thursday evening through the system is fairly starved for moisture
at this time, so expect only light ice accumulations. The
sharpest point of the upper level forcing trough passes overhead
Friday afternoon as we`re solidly in the warm sector causing just
cold rain before transitioning over to snow Friday night with only
light accumulations expected as colder air funnels in.

High pressure builds through Monday before the next system begins
to move into the area. A potential frontogenetic band sets up
near the forecast area Monday evening which causes some concern
especially if the more aggressive GFS deepens a low over
Wisconsin sending a deformation band over areas that may have
previously experienced some snowfall in the frontogenetic band.
Either way, there still is a lot of uncertainty in this timeframe
since there still is a lot of disagreement between models. It does
bear watching though as the 00Z GFS solution would be quite
impactful.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Primarily VFR. Main concern is a period this afternoon between
22Z and 03Z where snowfall could drop flight cats to IFR as a
clipper system passes through the area. Flight categories should
recover to VFR after 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  17  30  27 /  70  80   0  10
INL  21  13  27  26 /  80  30  10  10
BRD  26  19  34  31 /  50  20   0  10
HYR  27  19  34  28 /  50  70   0   0
ASX  29  21  34  28 /  50  60   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CST this
     evening for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221114
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
514 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term will be timing and
extent of light snow event this afternoon/evening.

Few residual stratocumulus exiting the far eastern cwa. Meanwhile,
a large area of Pacific moisture is spilling over the western CONUS
ridge across the Dakotas. Expect this trend to continue through the
morning with increasing mid/high level clouds expected to move east.
Mostly cloudy conditions by noon over the MN portion of the
cwa. This should put an end to much temperature recovery, with the
exception to the lee of the Buffalo Ridge to the southwest, where
some downsloping will occur. Isentropic lift increases over the
northern cwa this afternoon and spreads east into west central WI
for the evening. We do saturate to at least 4K feet in best area
of lift so we should be able to generate some light snow, even
with the rather dry start this morning. It will take much of the
day to saturate and will continue to carry a slight chance PoP as
far south and west as the metro this afternoon into the evening.
More than likely a few flurries will be the result here with
perhaps around one half inch along the northeast periphery of the
cwa, along the Highway 8 corridor in west central Wisconsin.

We expect a general clearing trend again from west to east during
the night as the weak wave moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Not much of a change expected in the weather pattern during the long
term period, with relatively fast flow expected across the CONUS that
will send systems across the area every couple of days.  We will be
under the influence of mainly a mild Pacific airmass though will
continue to see brief one or two day cool downs in the wake of each
system. There are no systems of significance through the weekend, but
the GFS/ECMWF have a potential trouble maker for us Tuesday/Tuesday
night next week, but as will be explained to come, it`s a bit early
to get overly excited about that system yet.

Not much has changed with the forecast Thursday and Friday. Friday
still looks to offer a chance of showers as a cold front associated
with another surface low tracking across southern Canada moves
across MN and western WI during the afternoon. Greatest precip
potential looks to be from northern MN into northern WI, closer to
the surface low and better PV advection from the shortwave forcing
that low. The Canadian and even SREF keep precip north of the MPX
area, but plenty of other guidance shows a line of showers
developing along the eastward advancing cold front from central MN
into west central WI, which is where the highest pops continue to be
centered. Still a bit of uncertainty with highs on Friday and the
wild card here is the cloud cover. Most guidance pushes highs above
the 50 mark up to about the I-94 corridor, but the NAM is painting a
different story.  The NAM brings dense stratus up into the area
Friday night, which is certainly possible with surface dewpoints
increasing into the low 40s. With dense stratus around all day, the
NAM is a good 10 degrees colder than us and the rest of the guidance
suite. This possibility is the one thing that that makes us hesitant
to say MSP will finally crack that 50 degree mark this month on
Friday.

Behind this front we will again see blustery northwest winds, though
winds do not look as strong as what was seen early Tuesday morning.
The one change noted over the last few model runs for this weekend
is they are considerably warmer. Gone are the -8c to -12c h85 temps
for Saturday, which are now forecast to be 0c to -8c, with h85 temps
surging above 0c by Sunday. The result, is our cold day Saturday is
still looking to have highs in the mid 30s to low 40s as opposed to
upper 20s to mid 30s like we were seeing a couple of days ago.
Sunday is even more dramatic, with most of the area looking to
finish off the holiday weekend with highs back into the 40s.

Next week is when things look potentially interesting, at least from
the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF. As the ridge bringing
record warmth to the southwest for Thanksgiving begins to breakdown
and slide into TX, models show a trough coming into the west coast
Sunday/Sunday night. This through will emerge from the Rockies
Monday night, with a surface cyclone likely developing over the
Plains and heading our direction Tuesday. Though the ECMWF/GFS are
in pretty good agreement with each other for this far out, GEFS QPF
plumes for Alexandria show that the operational GFS only has one
other GEFS member showing a similar forecast. In this pattern over
the last couple weeks, the models really have not started to settle
in on a forecast and ensembles begin to show limited spread until we
have hit the day4 potion of the forecast. So although the GFS and
ECMWF are showing a decent snow storm next week for western and
central MN, it`s probably too early to start getting excited about
details until we get to models run Friday night or Saturday, though
it is encouraging to see that at this point, the models are not
sending yet another surface low across southern Canada and have this
one at least closer to home. Behind this wave though we look to
quickly return to a mild Pacific airmass, with winter looking to
still tease us at this point as opposed to setting up shop for an
extended period of time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions expected with area of light snow developing mainly
north of KSTC to KEAU this afternoon and exiting to the east this
evening. Cigs will lower to 4K feet over the north and east as
frontal system moves east late afternoon/evening. Winds becoming
nw with fropa.

KMSP...
VFR conditions with winds becoming southerly 6 to 11 kts this
morning. Expect cigs to lower to 4-5k ft by 20z. May see some
virga but believe main light snow area will develop east of the
area. Clearing overnight with wind becoming nw late.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5 kts.
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 15-20 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10G20 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221114
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
514 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term will be timing and
extent of light snow event this afternoon/evening.

Few residual stratocumulus exiting the far eastern cwa. Meanwhile,
a large area of Pacific moisture is spilling over the western CONUS
ridge across the Dakotas. Expect this trend to continue through the
morning with increasing mid/high level clouds expected to move east.
Mostly cloudy conditions by noon over the MN portion of the
cwa. This should put an end to much temperature recovery, with the
exception to the lee of the Buffalo Ridge to the southwest, where
some downsloping will occur. Isentropic lift increases over the
northern cwa this afternoon and spreads east into west central WI
for the evening. We do saturate to at least 4K feet in best area
of lift so we should be able to generate some light snow, even
with the rather dry start this morning. It will take much of the
day to saturate and will continue to carry a slight chance PoP as
far south and west as the metro this afternoon into the evening.
More than likely a few flurries will be the result here with
perhaps around one half inch along the northeast periphery of the
cwa, along the Highway 8 corridor in west central Wisconsin.

We expect a general clearing trend again from west to east during
the night as the weak wave moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Not much of a change expected in the weather pattern during the long
term period, with relatively fast flow expected across the CONUS that
will send systems across the area every couple of days.  We will be
under the influence of mainly a mild Pacific airmass though will
continue to see brief one or two day cool downs in the wake of each
system. There are no systems of significance through the weekend, but
the GFS/ECMWF have a potential trouble maker for us Tuesday/Tuesday
night next week, but as will be explained to come, it`s a bit early
to get overly excited about that system yet.

Not much has changed with the forecast Thursday and Friday. Friday
still looks to offer a chance of showers as a cold front associated
with another surface low tracking across southern Canada moves
across MN and western WI during the afternoon. Greatest precip
potential looks to be from northern MN into northern WI, closer to
the surface low and better PV advection from the shortwave forcing
that low. The Canadian and even SREF keep precip north of the MPX
area, but plenty of other guidance shows a line of showers
developing along the eastward advancing cold front from central MN
into west central WI, which is where the highest pops continue to be
centered. Still a bit of uncertainty with highs on Friday and the
wild card here is the cloud cover. Most guidance pushes highs above
the 50 mark up to about the I-94 corridor, but the NAM is painting a
different story.  The NAM brings dense stratus up into the area
Friday night, which is certainly possible with surface dewpoints
increasing into the low 40s. With dense stratus around all day, the
NAM is a good 10 degrees colder than us and the rest of the guidance
suite. This possibility is the one thing that that makes us hesitant
to say MSP will finally crack that 50 degree mark this month on
Friday.

Behind this front we will again see blustery northwest winds, though
winds do not look as strong as what was seen early Tuesday morning.
The one change noted over the last few model runs for this weekend
is they are considerably warmer. Gone are the -8c to -12c h85 temps
for Saturday, which are now forecast to be 0c to -8c, with h85 temps
surging above 0c by Sunday. The result, is our cold day Saturday is
still looking to have highs in the mid 30s to low 40s as opposed to
upper 20s to mid 30s like we were seeing a couple of days ago.
Sunday is even more dramatic, with most of the area looking to
finish off the holiday weekend with highs back into the 40s.

Next week is when things look potentially interesting, at least from
the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF. As the ridge bringing
record warmth to the southwest for Thanksgiving begins to breakdown
and slide into TX, models show a trough coming into the west coast
Sunday/Sunday night. This through will emerge from the Rockies
Monday night, with a surface cyclone likely developing over the
Plains and heading our direction Tuesday. Though the ECMWF/GFS are
in pretty good agreement with each other for this far out, GEFS QPF
plumes for Alexandria show that the operational GFS only has one
other GEFS member showing a similar forecast. In this pattern over
the last couple weeks, the models really have not started to settle
in on a forecast and ensembles begin to show limited spread until we
have hit the day4 potion of the forecast. So although the GFS and
ECMWF are showing a decent snow storm next week for western and
central MN, it`s probably too early to start getting excited about
details until we get to models run Friday night or Saturday, though
it is encouraging to see that at this point, the models are not
sending yet another surface low across southern Canada and have this
one at least closer to home. Behind this wave though we look to
quickly return to a mild Pacific airmass, with winter looking to
still tease us at this point as opposed to setting up shop for an
extended period of time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions expected with area of light snow developing mainly
north of KSTC to KEAU this afternoon and exiting to the east this
evening. Cigs will lower to 4K feet over the north and east as
frontal system moves east late afternoon/evening. Winds becoming
nw with fropa.

KMSP...
VFR conditions with winds becoming southerly 6 to 11 kts this
morning. Expect cigs to lower to 4-5k ft by 20z. May see some
virga but believe main light snow area will develop east of the
area. Clearing overnight with wind becoming nw late.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5 kts.
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 15-20 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10G20 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 220948
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main focus is on the light snow forecast for later today, but
otherwise Thanksgiving Day will be free of any precipitation to
affect travel related to the holiday.

We will be recovering from yesterday`s cold snap today. An area
of high pressure will move through the Northland early today,
bringing milder air and a period of sunshine. Highs will be back
to the lower to middle 20s, and without the strong wind. A weak
area of low pressure will move into the Dakotas today and spread
clouds and eventually light snow into the Northland from the west.
There is high confidence in this snow, and high confidence the
snowfall amounts will be less than one inch. The snow will mainly
affect the Northland during the middle of the afternoon through
the evening, and while the snowfall will be light, it could make
for icy conditions for travelers on the roads.

Another area of high pressure will move through later today and
early Thursday. Southerly flow will develop Thursday, bringing
warmer air into the region. Expect partly cloudy skies and highs
ranging from the middle 20s near the Canadian border to the lower
30s from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A strengthening system passes just to the north of the Canadian
Border on Friday evening. As it approaches, it overruns cold air
causing a freezing rain threat in the Minnesota Arrowhead on
Thursday evening through the system is fairly starved for moisture
at this time, so expect only light ice accumulations. The
sharpest point of the upper level forcing trough passes overhead
Friday afternoon as we`re solidly in the warm sector causing just
cold rain before transitioning over to snow Friday night with only
light accumulations expected as colder air funnels in.

High pressure builds through Monday before the next system begins
to move into the area. A potential frontogenetic band sets up
near the forecast area Monday evening which causes some concern
especially if the more aggressive GFS deepens a low over
Wisconsin sending a deformation band over areas that may have
previously experienced some snowfall in the frontogenetic band.
Either way, there still is a lot of uncertainty in this timeframe
since there still is a lot of disagreement between models. It does
bear watching though as the 00Z GFS solution would be quite
impactful.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Primarily VFR except under lingering snow showers.  Main concern is
a period this afternoon between 22Z and 03Z where snowfall could
drop flight cats to IFR as a clipper system passes through the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  17  30  27 /  70  80   0  10
INL  21  13  27  26 /  80  30  10  10
BRD  26  19  34  31 /  50  20   0  10
HYR  27  19  34  28 /  50  70   0   0
ASX  29  21  34  28 /  50  60   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CST this
     evening for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220859
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term will be timing and
extent of light snow event this afternoon/evening.

Few residual stratocumulus exiting the far eastern cwa. Meanwhile,
a large area of Pacific moisture is spilling over the western CONUS
ridge across the Dakotas. Expect this trend to continue through the
morning with increasing mid/high level clouds expected to move east.
Mostly cloudy conditions by noon over the MN portion of the
cwa. This should put an end to much temperature recovery, with the
exception to the lee of the Buffalo Ridge to the southwest, where
some downsloping will occur. Isentropic lift increases over the
northern cwa this afternoon and spreads east into west central WI
for the evening. We do saturate to at least 4K feet in best area
of lift so we should be able to generate some light snow, even
with the rather dry start this morning. It will take much of the
day to saturate and will continue to carry a slight chance PoP as
far south and west as the metro this afternoon into the evening.
More than likely a few flurries will be the result here with
perhaps around one half inch along the northeast periphery of the
cwa, along the Highway 8 corridor in west central Wisconsin.

We expect a general clearing trend again from west to east during
the night as the weak wave moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Not much of a change expected in the weather pattern during the long
term period, with relatively fast flow expected across the CONUS that
will send systems across the area every couple of days.  We will be
under the influence of mainly a mild Pacific airmass though will
continue to see brief one or two day cool downs in the wake of each
system. There are no systems of significance through the weekend, but
the GFS/ECMWF have a potential trouble maker for us Tuesday/Tuesday
night next week, but as will be explained to come, it`s a bit early
to get overly excited about that system yet.

Not much has changed with the forecast Thursday and Friday. Friday
still looks to offer a chance of showers as a cold front associated
with another surface low tracking across southern Canada moves
across MN and western WI during the afternoon. Greatest precip
potential looks to be from northern MN into northern WI, closer to
the surface low and better PV advection from the shortwave forcing
that low. The Canadian and even SREF keep precip north of the MPX
area, but plenty of other guidance shows a line of showers
developing along the eastward advancing cold front from central MN
into west central WI, which is where the highest pops continue to be
centered. Still a bit of uncertainty with highs on Friday and the
wild card here is the cloud cover. Most guidance pushes highs above
the 50 mark up to about the I-94 corridor, but the NAM is painting a
different story.  The NAM brings dense stratus up into the area
Friday night, which is certainly possible with surface dewpoints
increasing into the low 40s. With dense stratus around all day, the
NAM is a good 10 degrees colder than us and the rest of the guidance
suite. This possibility is the one thing that that makes us hesitant
to say MSP will finally crack that 50 degree mark this month on
Friday.

Behind this front we will again see blustery northwest winds, though
winds do not look as strong as what was seen early Tuesday morning.
The one change noted over the last few model runs for this weekend
is they are considerably warmer. Gone are the -8c to -12c h85 temps
for Saturday, which are now forecast to be 0c to -8c, with h85 temps
surging above 0c by Sunday. The result, is our cold day Saturday is
still looking to have highs in the mid 30s to low 40s as opposed to
upper 20s to mid 30s like we were seeing a couple of days ago.
Sunday is even more dramatic, with most of the area looking to
finish off the holiday weekend with highs back into the 40s.

Next week is when things look potentially interesting, at least from
the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF. As the ridge bringing
record warmth to the southwest for Thanksgiving begins to breakdown
and slide into TX, models show a trough coming into the west coast
Sunday/Sunday night. This through will emerge from the Rockies
Monday night, with a surface cyclone likely developing over the
Plains and heading our direction Tuesday. Though the ECMWF/GFS are
in pretty good agreement with each other for this far out, GEFS QPF
plumes for Alexandria show that the operational GFS only has one
other GEFS member showing a similar forecast. In this pattern over
the last couple weeks, the models really have not started to settle
in on a forecast and ensembles begin to show limited spread until we
have hit the day4 potion of the forecast. So although the GFS and
ECMWF are showing a decent snow storm next week for western and
central MN, it`s probably too early to start getting excited about
details until we get to models run Friday night or Saturday, though
it is encouraging to see that at this point, the models are not
sending yet another surface low across southern Canada and have this
one at least closer to home. Behind this wave though we look to
quickly return to a mild Pacific airmass, with winter looking to
still tease us at this point as opposed to setting up shop for an
extended period of time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions with northwest winds. Could see some MVFR clouds at
KRNH and KEAU. Winds will become southwest Wednesday morning as
clouds increase.

KMSP...
VFR conditions with northwest winds becoming southwest with
increasing clouds during the morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5 kts.
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 15-20 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10G20 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220406
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1006 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Wind speeds in the wake of the cold front have begun to diminish
faster than originally expected, so the Wind Advisory was dropped
at 11AM as no observations were reaching criteria any longer. The
trend for a gradual wind speed reduction will continue through the
rest of the day and especially tonight. While still breezy this
afternoon, the winds will not be as strong as they were early this
morning as the greatest pressure falls shifts east of our area.

Skies will continue clearing through the afternoon and have
already for much of the area. Expect the clear skies to stick
around through the day but don`t be fooled by into thinking its
warm outside. With persistent northwest flow, temperatures will
remain below freezing, seeing no daytime improvement and combined
with the breezy conditions, the apparent temperature will be
in the teens all afternoon.

Winds will significantly weaken tonight, with around 5 to 10 MPH
expected overnight. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today
with low to mid 30s expected area-wide. A weak shortwave will
slide east through northern MN tomorrow afternoon and may graze
central MN with some light snow and flurries are possible across
the rest of the area into tomorrow evening. No accumulation is
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

By tomorrow evening, the building ridge across the western CONUS
will begin encroaching on western MN leading in to Thanksgiving
day. The main feature of interest is an energetic wave that
quickly move through the ridge in southwestern Canada on Thursday
which will put is in a warm air advection regime mainly,
especially Thursday night. So, didn`t change the forecast highs
for Thursday much, the main adjustment was to bump temperatures
in far western MN up to the upper 40s as southwest winds create a
downsloping effect on the east side of the Buffalo Ridge. All in
all, not a bad day on Thanksgiving. Highs around 40 in the east
and warmer in far western MN, with partly cloudy skies and winds
of 5 to 10 MPH.

The surface low that emerges from the Canadian Rockies will deepen
quite a bit and in a short period of time. A 976mb low racing
across Manitoba and into Ontario Friday will bring a cold front
through our region Friday. High temperatures Friday will depend on
timing of this front, which at this point looks to move through
during daytime hours. It will be a bit of a nasty day when the
front moves through. Rain and very strong winds will accompany the
front, more so for central MN and northwest WI given the closer
proximity to the low. Did raise winds quite a bit compared to
blended guidance. Soundings indicate potential for wind gusts in
the 35 to 45 MPH range Friday afternoon behind the front.

After a brief cool down over the weekend, the roller coaster ride
continues into next week as Monday looks to be another shot at
seeing highs approaching 50 as southwest flow develops once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions with northwest winds. Could see some MVFR clouds at
KRNH and KEAU. Winds will become southwest Wednesday morning as
clouds increase.

KMSP...
VFR conditions with northwest winds becoming southwest with
increasing clouds during the morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5 kts.
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 15-20 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 220332
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
932 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Updated to extend clouds through midnight with some flurries. The
clouds are slow to clear across the eastern portion of the region
and has extended into NW WI.

UPDATE Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

updated to extend clouds/flurries further south for the evening
hours. The activity should end by mid evening as drier air moves
into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A colder airmass has moved into the area today on the heels of last
night`s strong cold front passage.  The surface ridge now over
southern Saskatchewan will slowly slide southeast to over the area
tonight, and off to our east tomorrow.  This will leave the field
open for another fairly fast moving shortwave to move into the area
on Wednesday, bringing another dose of light snow Wednesday
afternoon and night.

With the surface ridge building into the area, winds should finally
diminish early this evening.  However, cloud cover extends to cover
much of Ontario, not clearing until Manitoba, and it will take time
for this to slide east of the area tonight.  Thus, have kept clouds
and flurries going this evening, with clearing not until after
midnight.  That said though, do anticipate clearing and good
radiational cooling, so have gone with some min temps tonight in the
single digits over much of the area, with slightly warmer values
where the clouds linger longer.  Lake effect clouds and snow showers
to linger overnight for portions of northwest Wisconsin.  A dusting
of light snow is possible there tonight.

Attention then turns to the incoming shortwave for Wednesday.  With
the dry air in place have gone with the slower advance of
precipitation into the forecast area, limiting it to the afternoon
hours.  The shortwave is fairly potent, though not extraordinarily
so, and should manage to bring a period of light snow to the area.
The NAM12 has gone a lot higher than the other models on QPF with
this wave, and since it seems to be the outlier have gone with a
blend of the more conservative models. This then produces about an
inch during the afternoon over portions of northern Minnesota.
This warm air advection wing is the most potent, so things really
diminish by the time it gets to northwest Wisconsin in the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A dry Thanksgiving forecast, with a couple of clipper systems moving
just to our north for Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will be
rather variable over the Northland into next week as well.

Right off the bat, Wednesday night should see a chance of light snow
over the eastern portions of the forecast area, especially along
western Lake Superior. This is due to a weak mid-level shortwave
that will dive southward and impinge on a push of 850-700 mb layer
warm air and moisture advection. QPF amounts look to be pretty
light, so any new snow accumulations should only be around one-tenth
of an inch or so over northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of Lake
Superior. Once the wave moves out, which should be rather quickly, a
dry, but chilly, Thanksgiving is expected. A surface high pressure
ridge will be in control over the Northland, so winds will also be
light, so overall, a great travel day for Thanksgiving. Skies look
to be partly sunny for much of the day as well.

For Friday, conditions change over to mostly cloudy, with some
increased chances of precipitation. A strong surge of warmer air in
the low-levels will move into the region, which should bring in
temperatures nearly 10 degrees above seasonal average. This warmer
air is associated with an Alberta clipper, which should primarily
remain over southern Canada, keeping us in the warm sector. P-types
might be an issue over the Arrowhead region as some freezing
rain/freezing drizzle may be possible due to a deep warm nose that
develops in the 900-700 mb layer, with temps aloft between 7 to 10
degrees above zero, according to the NAM and GFS model soundings.
Available moisture seems to be very light at this time, with lighter
QPF expected when conditions are more favorable for icing.
Temperatures should increase by the late morning, which should
remove any threat of icing. Temperatures for Friday will increase to
above freezing everywhere in the Northland, including the Arrowhead
region, with highs ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s north to the
middle 40s south. The best chances of precipitation will be Friday
afternoon, which should fall in the form of rain, limiting any snow
accumulations with this system.

For the upcoming weekend, most of the Northland should remain dry
except for along the Lake Superior snow belt, where some lake effect
snow will be possible Saturday and Sunday morning. The latest
guidance doesn`t show too favorable conditions for lake effect,
given a lack of deeper moisture and 1000-850 mb layer winds more
northwesterly than would be ideal for lake effect snow production.
So, we will have to keep an eye on this in subsequent forecasts. A
prolonged period of lake effect snow like what is forecast may
generate decent accumulations, however.

Monday and Tuesday look to be fairly dry, except for more chances of
light snow for Tuesday. Above freezing temperatures should return
again for most of the Northland Monday, with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Mainly MVFR-IFR cigs across the INL/HIB/DLH airports through 04z
as an area of clouds and flurries move over the region. BRD/HYR
will be VFR through the same time period. All airports should be
VFR after 04z as drier air moves into the region. VFR will be
across the region until midday when a quick moving low pressure
system pases through the region. conditons will drop to MVFR-IFR
across INL and HIB with VFR-MVFR at DLH/BRD with VFR at HYR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  24  16  31 /  10  90  30   0
INL   5  21  11  26 /  10  80  20  10
BRD  12  27  19  34 /   0  80  10   0
HYR  11  26  19  34 /  10  40  30   0
ASX  16  27  21  34 /  20  30  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...Stewart




000
FXUS63 KDLH 212341
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
541 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

updated to extend clouds/flurries further south for the evening
hours. The activity should end by mid evening as drier air moves
into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A colder airmass has moved into the area today on the heels of last
night`s strong cold front passage.  The surface ridge now over
southern Saskatchewan will slowly slide southeast to over the area
tonight, and off to our east tomorrow.  This will leave the field
open for another fairly fast moving shortwave to move into the area
on Wednesday, bringing another dose of light snow Wednesday
afternoon and night.

With the surface ridge building into the area, winds should finally
diminish early this evening.  However, cloud cover extends to cover
much of Ontario, not clearing until Manitoba, and it will take time
for this to slide east of the area tonight.  Thus, have kept clouds
and flurries going this evening, with clearing not until after
midnight.  That said though, do anticipate clearing and good
radiational cooling, so have gone with some min temps tonight in the
single digits over much of the area, with slightly warmer values
where the clouds linger longer.  Lake effect clouds and snow showers
to linger overnight for portions of northwest Wisconsin.  A dusting
of light snow is possible there tonight.

Attention then turns to the incoming shortwave for Wednesday.  With
the dry air in place have gone with the slower advance of
precipitation into the forecast area, limiting it to the afternoon
hours.  The shortwave is fairly potent, though not extraordinarily
so, and should manage to bring a period of light snow to the area.
The NAM12 has gone a lot higher than the other models on QPF with
this wave, and since it seems to be the outlier have gone with a
blend of the more conservative models. This then produces about an
inch during the afternoon over portions of northern Minnesota.
This warm air advection wing is the most potent, so things really
diminish by the time it gets to northwest Wisconsin in the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A dry Thanksgiving forecast, with a couple of clipper systems moving
just to our north for Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will be
rather variable over the Northland into next week as well.

Right off the bat, Wednesday night should see a chance of light snow
over the eastern portions of the forecast area, especially along
western Lake Superior. This is due to a weak mid-level shortwave
that will dive southward and impinge on a push of 850-700 mb layer
warm air and moisture advection. QPF amounts look to be pretty
light, so any new snow accumulations should only be around one-tenth
of an inch or so over northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of Lake
Superior. Once the wave moves out, which should be rather quickly, a
dry, but chilly, Thanksgiving is expected. A surface high pressure
ridge will be in control over the Northland, so winds will also be
light, so overall, a great travel day for Thanksgiving. Skies look
to be partly sunny for much of the day as well.

For Friday, conditions change over to mostly cloudy, with some
increased chances of precipitation. A strong surge of warmer air in
the low-levels will move into the region, which should bring in
temperatures nearly 10 degrees above seasonal average. This warmer
air is associated with an Alberta clipper, which should primarily
remain over southern Canada, keeping us in the warm sector. P-types
might be an issue over the Arrowhead region as some freezing
rain/freezing drizzle may be possible due to a deep warm nose that
develops in the 900-700 mb layer, with temps aloft between 7 to 10
degrees above zero, according to the NAM and GFS model soundings.
Available moisture seems to be very light at this time, with lighter
QPF expected when conditions are more favorable for icing.
Temperatures should increase by the late morning, which should
remove any threat of icing. Temperatures for Friday will increase to
above freezing everywhere in the Northland, including the Arrowhead
region, with highs ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s north to the
middle 40s south. The best chances of precipitation will be Friday
afternoon, which should fall in the form of rain, limiting any snow
accumulations with this system.

For the upcoming weekend, most of the Northland should remain dry
except for along the Lake Superior snow belt, where some lake effect
snow will be possible Saturday and Sunday morning. The latest
guidance doesn`t show too favorable conditions for lake effect,
given a lack of deeper moisture and 1000-850 mb layer winds more
northwesterly than would be ideal for lake effect snow production.
So, we will have to keep an eye on this in subsequent forecasts. A
prolonged period of lake effect snow like what is forecast may
generate decent accumulations, however.

Monday and Tuesday look to be fairly dry, except for more chances of
light snow for Tuesday. Above freezing temperatures should return
again for most of the Northland Monday, with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Mainly MVFR-IFR cigs across the INL/HIB/DLH airports through 04z
as an area of clouds and flurries move over the region. BRD/HYR
will be VFR through the same time period. All airports should be
VFR after 04z as drier air moves into the region. VFR will be
across the region until midday when a quick moving low pressure
system pases through the region. conditons will drop to MVFR-IFR
across INL and HIB with VFR-MVFR at DLH/BRD with VFR at HYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  24  16  31 /  10  90  30   0
INL   5  21  11  26 /  10  80  20  10
BRD  12  27  19  34 /   0  80  10   0
HYR  11  26  19  34 /  10  40  30   0
ASX  16  27  21  34 /  20  30  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...Stewart




000
FXUS63 KDLH 212341
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
541 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

updated to extend clouds/flurries further south for the evening
hours. The activity should end by mid evening as drier air moves
into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A colder airmass has moved into the area today on the heels of last
night`s strong cold front passage.  The surface ridge now over
southern Saskatchewan will slowly slide southeast to over the area
tonight, and off to our east tomorrow.  This will leave the field
open for another fairly fast moving shortwave to move into the area
on Wednesday, bringing another dose of light snow Wednesday
afternoon and night.

With the surface ridge building into the area, winds should finally
diminish early this evening.  However, cloud cover extends to cover
much of Ontario, not clearing until Manitoba, and it will take time
for this to slide east of the area tonight.  Thus, have kept clouds
and flurries going this evening, with clearing not until after
midnight.  That said though, do anticipate clearing and good
radiational cooling, so have gone with some min temps tonight in the
single digits over much of the area, with slightly warmer values
where the clouds linger longer.  Lake effect clouds and snow showers
to linger overnight for portions of northwest Wisconsin.  A dusting
of light snow is possible there tonight.

Attention then turns to the incoming shortwave for Wednesday.  With
the dry air in place have gone with the slower advance of
precipitation into the forecast area, limiting it to the afternoon
hours.  The shortwave is fairly potent, though not extraordinarily
so, and should manage to bring a period of light snow to the area.
The NAM12 has gone a lot higher than the other models on QPF with
this wave, and since it seems to be the outlier have gone with a
blend of the more conservative models. This then produces about an
inch during the afternoon over portions of northern Minnesota.
This warm air advection wing is the most potent, so things really
diminish by the time it gets to northwest Wisconsin in the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A dry Thanksgiving forecast, with a couple of clipper systems moving
just to our north for Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will be
rather variable over the Northland into next week as well.

Right off the bat, Wednesday night should see a chance of light snow
over the eastern portions of the forecast area, especially along
western Lake Superior. This is due to a weak mid-level shortwave
that will dive southward and impinge on a push of 850-700 mb layer
warm air and moisture advection. QPF amounts look to be pretty
light, so any new snow accumulations should only be around one-tenth
of an inch or so over northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of Lake
Superior. Once the wave moves out, which should be rather quickly, a
dry, but chilly, Thanksgiving is expected. A surface high pressure
ridge will be in control over the Northland, so winds will also be
light, so overall, a great travel day for Thanksgiving. Skies look
to be partly sunny for much of the day as well.

For Friday, conditions change over to mostly cloudy, with some
increased chances of precipitation. A strong surge of warmer air in
the low-levels will move into the region, which should bring in
temperatures nearly 10 degrees above seasonal average. This warmer
air is associated with an Alberta clipper, which should primarily
remain over southern Canada, keeping us in the warm sector. P-types
might be an issue over the Arrowhead region as some freezing
rain/freezing drizzle may be possible due to a deep warm nose that
develops in the 900-700 mb layer, with temps aloft between 7 to 10
degrees above zero, according to the NAM and GFS model soundings.
Available moisture seems to be very light at this time, with lighter
QPF expected when conditions are more favorable for icing.
Temperatures should increase by the late morning, which should
remove any threat of icing. Temperatures for Friday will increase to
above freezing everywhere in the Northland, including the Arrowhead
region, with highs ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s north to the
middle 40s south. The best chances of precipitation will be Friday
afternoon, which should fall in the form of rain, limiting any snow
accumulations with this system.

For the upcoming weekend, most of the Northland should remain dry
except for along the Lake Superior snow belt, where some lake effect
snow will be possible Saturday and Sunday morning. The latest
guidance doesn`t show too favorable conditions for lake effect,
given a lack of deeper moisture and 1000-850 mb layer winds more
northwesterly than would be ideal for lake effect snow production.
So, we will have to keep an eye on this in subsequent forecasts. A
prolonged period of lake effect snow like what is forecast may
generate decent accumulations, however.

Monday and Tuesday look to be fairly dry, except for more chances of
light snow for Tuesday. Above freezing temperatures should return
again for most of the Northland Monday, with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Mainly MVFR-IFR cigs across the INL/HIB/DLH airports through 04z
as an area of clouds and flurries move over the region. BRD/HYR
will be VFR through the same time period. All airports should be
VFR after 04z as drier air moves into the region. VFR will be
across the region until midday when a quick moving low pressure
system pases through the region. conditons will drop to MVFR-IFR
across INL and HIB with VFR-MVFR at DLH/BRD with VFR at HYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  24  16  31 /  10  90  30   0
INL   5  21  11  26 /  10  80  20  10
BRD  12  27  19  34 /   0  80  10   0
HYR  11  26  19  34 /  10  40  30   0
ASX  16  27  21  34 /  20  30  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...Stewart




000
FXUS63 KMPX 212327
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
527 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Wind speeds in the wake of the cold front have begun to diminish
faster than originally expected, so the Wind Advisory was dropped
at 11AM as no observations were reaching criteria any longer. The
trend for a gradual wind speed reduction will continue through the
rest of the day and especially tonight. While still breezy this
afternoon, the winds will not be as strong as they were early this
morning as the greatest pressure falls shifts east of our area.

Skies will continue clearing through the afternoon and have
already for much of the area. Expect the clear skies to stick
around through the day but don`t be fooled by into thinking its
warm outside. With persistent northwest flow, temperatures will
remain below freezing, seeing no daytime improvement and combined
with the breezy conditions, the apparent temperature will be
in the teens all afternoon.

Winds will significantly weaken tonight, with around 5 to 10 MPH
expected overnight. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today
with low to mid 30s expected area-wide. A weak shortwave will
slide east through northern MN tomorrow afternoon and may graze
central MN with some light snow and flurries are possible across
the rest of the area into tomorrow evening. No accumulation is
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

By tomorrow evening, the building ridge across the western CONUS
will begin encroaching on western MN leading in to Thanksgiving
day. The main feature of interest is an energetic wave that
quickly move through the ridge in southwestern Canada on Thursday
which will put is in a warm air advection regime mainly,
especially Thursday night. So, didn`t change the forecast highs
for Thursday much, the main adjustment was to bump temperatures
in far western MN up to the upper 40s as southwest winds create a
downsloping effect on the east side of the Buffalo Ridge. All in
all, not a bad day on Thanksgiving. Highs around 40 in the east
and warmer in far western MN, with partly cloudy skies and winds
of 5 to 10 MPH.

The surface low that emerges from the Canadian Rockies will deepen
quite a bit and in a short period of time. A 976mb low racing
across Manitoba and into Ontario Friday will bring a cold front
through our region Friday. High temperatures Friday will depend on
timing of this front, which at this point looks to move through
during daytime hours. It will be a bit of a nasty day when the
front moves through. Rain and very strong winds will accompany the
front, more so for central MN and northwest WI given the closer
proximity to the low. Did raise winds quite a bit compared to
blended guidance. Soundings indicate potential for wind gusts in
the 35 to 45 MPH range Friday afternoon behind the front.

After a brief cool down over the weekend, the roller coaster ride
continues into next week as Monday looks to be another shot at
seeing highs approaching 50 as southwest flow develops once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Winds will decrease tonight and become
southerly on Wednesday. Expect increasing clouds on Wednesday with
bases around 4000 to 6000 ft above ground level.

KMSP...
VFR with northwest winds becoming south southwest during the
morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5 kts.
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible late. Winds SW 10 kts turning
NW with PM FROPA and increasing to 15-20 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 212310
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
510 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

updated to extend clouds/flurries further south for the evening
hours. The activity should end by mid evening as drier air moves
into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A colder airmass has moved into the area today on the heels of last
night`s strong cold front passage.  The surface ridge now over
southern Saskatchewan will slowly slide southeast to over the area
tonight, and off to our east tomorrow.  This will leave the field
open for another fairly fast moving shortwave to move into the area
on Wednesday, bringing another dose of light snow Wednesday
afternoon and night.

With the surface ridge building into the area, winds should finally
diminish early this evening.  However, cloud cover extends to cover
much of Ontario, not clearing until Manitoba, and it will take time
for this to slide east of the area tonight.  Thus, have kept clouds
and flurries going this evening, with clearing not until after
midnight.  That said though, do anticipate clearing and good
radiational cooling, so have gone with some min temps tonight in the
single digits over much of the area, with slightly warmer values
where the clouds linger longer.  Lake effect clouds and snow showers
to linger overnight for portions of northwest Wisconsin.  A dusting
of light snow is possible there tonight.

Attention then turns to the incoming shortwave for Wednesday.  With
the dry air in place have gone with the slower advance of
precipitation into the forecast area, limiting it to the afternoon
hours.  The shortwave is fairly potent, though not extraordinarily
so, and should manage to bring a period of light snow to the area.
The NAM12 has gone a lot higher than the other models on QPF with
this wave, and since it seems to be the outlier have gone with a
blend of the more conservative models. This then produces about an
inch during the afternoon over portions of northern Minnesota.
This warm air advection wing is the most potent, so things really
diminish by the time it gets to northwest Wisconsin in the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A dry Thanksgiving forecast, with a couple of clipper systems moving
just to our north for Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will be
rather variable over the Northland into next week as well.

Right off the bat, Wednesday night should see a chance of light snow
over the eastern portions of the forecast area, especially along
western Lake Superior. This is due to a weak mid-level shortwave
that will dive southward and impinge on a push of 850-700 mb layer
warm air and moisture advection. QPF amounts look to be pretty
light, so any new snow accumulations should only be around one-tenth
of an inch or so over northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of Lake
Superior. Once the wave moves out, which should be rather quickly, a
dry, but chilly, Thanksgiving is expected. A surface high pressure
ridge will be in control over the Northland, so winds will also be
light, so overall, a great travel day for Thanksgiving. Skies look
to be partly sunny for much of the day as well.

For Friday, conditions change over to mostly cloudy, with some
increased chances of precipitation. A strong surge of warmer air in
the low-levels will move into the region, which should bring in
temperatures nearly 10 degrees above seasonal average. This warmer
air is associated with an Alberta clipper, which should primarily
remain over southern Canada, keeping us in the warm sector. P-types
might be an issue over the Arrowhead region as some freezing
rain/freezing drizzle may be possible due to a deep warm nose that
develops in the 900-700 mb layer, with temps aloft between 7 to 10
degrees above zero, according to the NAM and GFS model soundings.
Available moisture seems to be very light at this time, with lighter
QPF expected when conditions are more favorable for icing.
Temperatures should increase by the late morning, which should
remove any threat of icing. Temperatures for Friday will increase to
above freezing everywhere in the Northland, including the Arrowhead
region, with highs ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s north to the
middle 40s south. The best chances of precipitation will be Friday
afternoon, which should fall in the form of rain, limiting any snow
accumulations with this system.

For the upcoming weekend, most of the Northland should remain dry
except for along the Lake Superior snow belt, where some lake effect
snow will be possible Saturday and Sunday morning. The latest
guidance doesn`t show too favorable conditions for lake effect,
given a lack of deeper moisture and 1000-850 mb layer winds more
northwesterly than would be ideal for lake effect snow production.
So, we will have to keep an eye on this in subsequent forecasts. A
prolonged period of lake effect snow like what is forecast may
generate decent accumulations, however.

Monday and Tuesday look to be fairly dry, except for more chances of
light snow for Tuesday. Above freezing temperatures should return
again for most of the Northland Monday, with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Conditions continue to improve over the Northland TAF sites as
drier air filters into the region, leading to SCT to BKN cloud
cover over most locations, except for KINL and KHYR. Mostly VFR
conditions will continue through the afternoon and tonight, except
for KINL as a period of snow showers is expected this afternoon,
which may reduce visibilities down to MVFR. Also, gusty northwest
winds will continue into the evening today, with gusts between 20
to 30 knots possible. High clouds will move in for tomorrow
morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  24  16  31 /  10  90  30   0
INL   5  21  11  26 /  10  80  20  10
BRD  12  27  19  34 /   0  80  10   0
HYR  11  26  19  34 /  10  40  30   0
ASX  16  27  21  34 /  20  30  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...JTS




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities