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000
FXUS63 KDLH 202343
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Colder and drier air will filter into the Northland through
tonight as an area of low pressure lifts from Upper Michigan this
afternoon to Quebec overnight. An area of high pressure will be
slowly shifting east through the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. The current overcast cloud cover will then and clear out
overnight. It will be a pretty clear and cold morning by dawn
Wednesday with very light winds speeds. It earlier appeared we
would have wind chills colder than 25 below zero, but this no
longer seems to be the case. The winds will be weakening through
the night even though temperatures will be dropping off. It now
appears we will have widespread wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero
by late tonight and early Wednesday.

Wednesday looks sunny with light westerly winds. The area of high
pressure will shift east into the Upper Midwest, centering itself
across southern Minnesota and into central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The active weather pattern will continue during the long term
with a quick shot of snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle,
Thursday night and Friday and another chance of snow Saturday
afternoon and evening.

High pressure will remain over the region Wednesday night into
Thursday ahead of a fast-moving shortwave trough forecast to
arrive Thursday night. At 00Z Thursday a jet streak is forecast
near the Baja and will lift quickly into the Southern Plains as it
rounds the base of the western CONUS longwave trough. The surface
ridge over the Northland will drift away from the area during the
day, with winds backing southerly ahead of the approaching
shortwave. Northward moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico is
expected ahead of the wave, which will support clouds and light
snow. The shortwave trough and associated vort max will be located
over the Central Plains into the mid- Mississippi Valley by
Thursday evening. Precipitation is forecast to spread northward
from Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa, into northern Minnesota,
Upper Michigan, and northern Wisconsin during the evening. Model
thermal profiles over northwest Wisconsin suggest a potential for
freezing drizzle late Thursday night into Friday. Have opted for a
mix of light snow and freezing drizzle with this forecast since
confidence in a complete change to FZDZ is low. However, even a
light glaze of ice can create significant travel difficulties, so
definitely want to include a mention in the forecast and HWO.
Raised QPF above the consensus blend and lowered snow ratios with
this forecast. The dendritic growth area will be relatively
shallow and located well aloft in the cloud bearing layer, with
temperatures increasing below the DGZ and super-saturation
decreasing. Think small dendrites, needles, and columns will be
the dominant snow crystal habit. Higher ratios seems likely at the
start of the event, before the column warms with increasing WAA,
with 15:1 in the northwest and 13:1 in the southeast 00-06Z
Friday. The gradient in the snow ratios increases after 06Z with
interior portions of northwest Wisconsin around 11.5:1 and north-
central Minnesota around 16:1. However, with the increase in QPF,
a swath of 2-4 inches of snow exists from central Minnesota into
the Arrowhead, with lower totals in north-central Minnesota and
interior northwest Wisconsin.

The shortwave quickly exits the Northland Friday afternoon with
high pressure returning to the Upper Midwest. The longwave trough
will gradually push eastward into the center of the CONUS while
de-amplifying on Saturday. Deterministic guidance shifted
considerably for the 20.00Z and 20.12Z runs with a much better
organized system than yesterday`s guidance indicated. Another
southern stream jet streak will round the trough and move into the
mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday evening. Deterministic guidance
sill diverges in handling this feature with the GFS phasing the
southern jet streak with a northern stream feature, resulting in
the development of a well-organized storm system. The ECMWF
features less separation between the two airstreams, and less
phasing, while the GEM is more progressive. The GEM handles the
surface system as an open wave, while the GFS and ECMWF feature a
closed surface low. The trajectories of the respective low
pressure systems would support slight to likely POPs over the
Northland Saturday afternoon through the evening. The best
potential for light snow is over northwest Wisconsin, as the storm
track is well to the southeast. Confidence is low given the
diverse solutions offered by the models. A few inches of snow
accumulation are possible as of this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

MVFr cigs covered most of the terminals at the start of the
forecast. The exception being at BRD and INL where VFR cigs were
found. HIB/DLH/HYR will improve to VFR through the early part of
the forecast. With high pressure expected to be in the
neighborhood through the forecast, look for VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -2  19  -1  26 /   0   0   0  10
INL  -6  17  -7  28 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  -5  19  -2  26 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  -2  20  -3  29 /   0   0   0  20
ASX   2  22   2  31 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...GSF



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000
FXUS63 KMPX 202337
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
537 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Relatively benign weather is expected through Wednesday, as
surface high pressure settles in across the area. Clouds will
continue clearing this evening, with mostly sunny skies and
lighter winds for Wednesday.

Sub-zero temperatures will occur generally west of the I-35
corridor tonight where there`s a fresh snowpack and skies will be
clear for the duration. East of I-35 across west central Wisconsin
expect lows in the single digits just above zero. Highs on
Wednesday will remain below normal, generally in the upper teens
to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Active weather sets up for the long term forecast period as
shortwave energy ejecting out of the trough over the western
CONUS fosters precipitation chances every couple of days.

The first opportunity arrives Thursday as a mid-level wave passes
across the area. Given thermal profiles aren`t entirely saturated
in the key layer for ice crystal formation, at this point there
appears to be the potential for some freezing rain/drizzle again
with this event. The higher chances at this point look to be from
south central MN into west central WI, similar to where we had
icing issues with this last event. Snowfall ratios indicate the
potential for a 1-3 inch event.

Friday is our day in between systems, with surface high pressure
briefly in control. This looks to be the warmest day of the work
week, with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s under clearing skies
and light westerly winds.

The next system is progged to eject across the Central Plains/MS
River Valley on Saturday. This wave packs more of a punch than the
one prior, including a surface low deepening to circa 980mb by the
time it reaches the Great Lakes (per the 20.12Z GFS). The 20.12Z ECMWF
was less wound up, but still featured a similar surface low
progression. The current model consensus would favor the
southeastern portion of the forecast area as having higher
probabilities of being impacted by this system. Definitely plenty
of time for this to shift however.

After this weekend the remainder of the period into early next
week looks pretty quiet with mid level ridging overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Still working the last of the stratus out of western WI, though
these clouds will be out of EAU no later that 6z. After that, it`s
clear skies and west winds of 5-10kts as we get a breather
Wednesday before snowfall returns Thursday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn with -SN. Chc IFR late.
      Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR. Chc VFR by aftn. Wind W 5 kts.
Sat...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind E
      5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KDLH 202108
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
308 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Colder and drier air will filter into the Northland through
tonight as an area of low pressure lifts from Upper Michigan this
afternoon to Quebec overnight. An area of high pressure will be
slowly shifting east through the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. The current overcast cloud cover will then and clear out
overnight. It will be a pretty clear and cold morning by dawn
Wednesday with very light winds speeds. It earlier appeared we
would have wind chills colder than 25 below zero, but this no
longer seems to be the case. The winds will be weakening through
the night even though temperatures will be dropping off. It now
appears we will have widespread wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero
by late tonight and early Wednesday.

Wednesday looks sunny with light westerly winds. The area of high
pressure will shift east into the Upper Midwest, centering itself
across southern Minnesota and into central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The active weather pattern will continue during the long term
with a quick shot of snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle,
Thursday night and Friday and another chance of snow Saturday
afternoon and evening.

High pressure will remain over the region Wednesday night into
Thursday ahead of a fast-moving shortwave trough forecast to
arrive Thursday night. At 00Z Thursday a jet streak is forecast
near the Baja and will lift quickly into the Southern Plains as it
rounds the base of the western CONUS longwave trough. The surface
ridge over the Northland will drift away from the area during the
day, with winds backing southerly ahead of the approaching
shortwave. Northward moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico is
expected ahead of the wave, which will support clouds and light
snow. The shortwave trough and associated vort max will be located
over the Central Plains into the mid- Mississippi Valley by
Thursday evening. Precipitation is forecast to spread northward
from Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa, into northern Minnesota,
Upper Michigan, and northern Wisconsin during the evening. Model
thermal profiles over northwest Wisconsin suggest a potential for
freezing drizzle late Thursday night into Friday. Have opted for a
mix of light snow and freezing drizzle with this forecast since
confidence in a complete change to FZDZ is low. However, even a
light glaze of ice can create significant travel difficulties, so
definitely want to include a mention in the forecast and HWO.
Raised QPF above the consensus blend and lowered snow ratios with
this forecast. The dendritic growth area will be relatively
shallow and located well aloft in the cloud bearing layer, with
temperatures increasing below the DGZ and super-saturation
decreasing. Think small dendrites, needles, and columns will be
the dominant snow crystal habit. Higher ratios seems likely at the
start of the event, before the column warms with increasing WAA,
with 15:1 in the northwest and 13:1 in the southeast 00-06Z
Friday. The gradient in the snow ratios increases after 06Z with
interior portions of northwest Wisconsin around 11.5:1 and north-
central Minnesota around 16:1. However, with the increase in QPF,
a swath of 2-4 inches of snow exists from central Minnesota into
the Arrowhead, with lower totals in north-central Minnesota and
interior northwest Wisconsin.

The shortwave quickly exits the Northland Friday afternoon with
high pressure returning to the Upper Midwest. The longwave trough
will gradually push eastward into the center of the CONUS while
de-amplifying on Saturday. Deterministic guidance shifted
considerably for the 20.00Z and 20.12Z runs with a much better
organized system than yesterday`s guidance indicated. Another
southern stream jet streak will round the trough and move into the
mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday evening. Deterministic guidance
sill diverges in handling this feature with the GFS phasing the
southern jet streak with a northern stream feature, resulting in
the development of a well-organized storm system. The ECMWF
features less separation between the two airstreams, and less
phasing, while the GEM is more progressive. The GEM handles the
surface system as an open wave, while the GFS and ECMWF feature a
closed surface low. The trajectories of the respective low
pressure systems would support slight to likely POPs over the
Northland Saturday afternoon through the evening. The best
potential for light snow is over northwest Wisconsin, as the storm
track is well to the southeast. Confidence is low given the
diverse solutions offered by the models. A few inches of snow
accumulation are possible as of this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Light snow and freezing drizzle will gradually end during the
next few hours as low pressure over western Upper Michigan pulls
away from the Northland. Ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR range
this afternoon as lingering moisture over the Red River Valley
pulls east-northeast across the terminals. High pressure builds in
tonight with clearing skies and VFR conditions for the remainder
of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -4  19  -2  26 /   0   0   0  20
INL -12  18  -8  26 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  -9  19  -4  26 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  -3  20  -4  29 /  10   0   0  20
ASX   3  22   1  29 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KMPX 202059
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Relatively benign weather is expected through Wednesday, as
surface high pressure settles in across the area. Clouds will
continue clearing this evening, with mostly sunny skies and
lighter winds for Wednesday.

Sub-zero temperatures will occur generally west of the I-35
corridor tonight where there`s a fresh snowpack and skies will be
clear for the duration. East of I-35 across west central Wisconsin
expect lows in the single digits just above zero. Highs on
Wednesday will remain below normal, generally in the upper teens
to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Active weather sets up for the long term forecast period as
shortwave energy ejecting out of the trough over the western
CONUS fosters precipitation chances every couple of days.

The first opportunity arrives Thursday as a mid-level wave passes
across the area. Given thermal profiles aren`t entirely saturated
in the key layer for ice crystal formation, at this point there
appears to be the potential for some freezing rain/drizzle again
with this event. The higher chances at this point look to be from
south central MN into west central WI, similar to where we had
icing issues with this last event. Snowfall ratios indicate the
potential for a 1-3 inch event.

Friday is our day in between systems, with surface high pressure
briefly in control. This looks to be the warmest day of the work
week, with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s under clearing skies
and light westerly winds.

The next system is progged to eject across the Central Plains/MS
River Valley on Saturday. This wave packs more of a punch than the
one prior, including a surface low deepening to circa 980mb by the
time it reaches the Great Lakes (per the 20.12Z GFS). The 20.12Z ECMWF
was less wound up, but still featured a similar surface low
progression. The current model consensus would favor the
southeastern portion of the forecast area as having higher
probabilities of being impacted by this system. Definitely plenty
of time for this to shift however.

After this weekend the remainder of the period into early next
week looks pretty quiet with mid level ridging overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The precip has ended at most sites at TAF issuance, but the
MVFR/IVR deck will linger through the afternoon across the eastern
part of the area. VFR is already developing over west central MN,
and that will work eastward by evening. VFR is then expected this
evening and overnight, with clear skies for Wednesday. Northwest
winds between 10 and 15 knots (with gusts to between 20 and 25
knots at MN sites) will diminish this eve and back to westerly for
Wednesday (at speeds around 5-8 knots).

KMSP...
Expect to see cigs rise above 1700 feet by around 20Z, then become
VFR by 02Z. Northwest winds gradually back to west overnight, then
southwest Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
      SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind W 5 kts.
Sat...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
variable 5 knots or less.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201808
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1208 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Let the Winter Storm Warning and most of the Winter Weather
Advisories expire as planned at noon. There is some lingering
light snow across northern MN, which may persist through until the
middle of the afternoon. Extended the Advisory for far northern WI
near Lake Superior until 2 pm because of light accumulating
freezing rain. Even though freezing drizzle/rain has really
lightened up or diminished across most of the Northland, the extra
moisture from flow from Lake Superior is maintaining it near the
Lake.


UPDATE Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Update for new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

There will continue to be lingering snow and freezing rain and
drizzle across the Northland this morning. We had many reports of
freezing drizzle and rain in the Twin Ports and along the North
Shore, so updated the forecast to include this in the forecast
through early this afternoon. Overall, precipitation will be
diminishing from south to the north today, but there could be
lingering freezing drizzle and snow through this afternoon,
especially across far northern Minnesota, the North Shore, and the
South Shore. The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisories expire at noon, and planning on sticking with that
timing for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Light snow and freezing drizzle will gradually end during the
next few hours as low pressure over western Upper Michigan pulls
away from the Northland. Ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR range
this afternoon as lingering moisture over the Red River Valley
pulls east-northeast across the terminals. High pressure builds in
tonight with clearing skies and VFR conditions for the remainder
of the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  -4  19  -2 /  90   0   0   0
INL  12 -12  18  -8 /  90  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  60   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  70  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for
     WIZ002>004.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201808
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1208 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Let the Winter Storm Warning and most of the Winter Weather
Advisories expire as planned at noon. There is some lingering
light snow across northern MN, which may persist through until the
middle of the afternoon. Extended the Advisory for far northern WI
near Lake Superior until 2 pm because of light accumulating
freezing rain. Even though freezing drizzle/rain has really
lightened up or diminished across most of the Northland, the extra
moisture from flow from Lake Superior is maintaining it near the
Lake.


UPDATE Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Update for new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

There will continue to be lingering snow and freezing rain and
drizzle across the Northland this morning. We had many reports of
freezing drizzle and rain in the Twin Ports and along the North
Shore, so updated the forecast to include this in the forecast
through early this afternoon. Overall, precipitation will be
diminishing from south to the north today, but there could be
lingering freezing drizzle and snow through this afternoon,
especially across far northern Minnesota, the North Shore, and the
South Shore. The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisories expire at noon, and planning on sticking with that
timing for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Light snow and freezing drizzle will gradually end during the
next few hours as low pressure over western Upper Michigan pulls
away from the Northland. Ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR range
this afternoon as lingering moisture over the Red River Valley
pulls east-northeast across the terminals. High pressure builds in
tonight with clearing skies and VFR conditions for the remainder
of the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  -4  19  -2 /  90   0   0   0
INL  12 -12  18  -8 /  90  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  60   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  70  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for
     WIZ002>004.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201801 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Update for new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

There will continue to be lingering snow and freezing rain and
drizzle across the Northland this morning. We had many reports of
freezing drizzle and rain in the Twin Ports and along the North
Shore, so updated the forecast to include this in the forecast
through early this afternoon. Overall, precipitation will be
diminishing from south to the north today, but there could be
lingering freezing drizzle and snow through this afternoon,
especially across far northern Minnesota, the North Shore, and the
South Shore. The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisories expire at noon, and planning on sticking with that
timing for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Light snow and freezing drizzle will gradually end during the
next few hours as low pressure over western Upper Michigan pulls
away from the Northland. Ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR range
this afternoon as lingering moisture over the Red River Valley
pulls east-northeast across the terminals. High pressure builds in
tonight with clearing skies and VFR conditions for the remainder
of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  -4  19  -2 /  90   0   0   0
INL  12 -12  18  -8 /  90  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  60   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  70  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for
     WIZ002>004.

MN...None

LS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201801 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Update for new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

There will continue to be lingering snow and freezing rain and
drizzle across the Northland this morning. We had many reports of
freezing drizzle and rain in the Twin Ports and along the North
Shore, so updated the forecast to include this in the forecast
through early this afternoon. Overall, precipitation will be
diminishing from south to the north today, but there could be
lingering freezing drizzle and snow through this afternoon,
especially across far northern Minnesota, the North Shore, and the
South Shore. The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisories expire at noon, and planning on sticking with that
timing for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Light snow and freezing drizzle will gradually end during the
next few hours as low pressure over western Upper Michigan pulls
away from the Northland. Ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR range
this afternoon as lingering moisture over the Red River Valley
pulls east-northeast across the terminals. High pressure builds in
tonight with clearing skies and VFR conditions for the remainder
of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  -4  19  -2 /  90   0   0   0
INL  12 -12  18  -8 /  90  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  60   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  70  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for
     WIZ002>004.

MN...None

LS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KMPX 201743
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1143 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...For 18Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

While the complex storm system is expected to shift off to the
east and bring an end to all precipitation across the WFO MPX
coverage area by this afternoon, still a tricky morning forecast
before all is said and done.

Surface analysis shows a low pressure center over the small
portion of the IA/WI border, with a warm front extending eastward
and a cold front extending southwestward. The center of high
pressure behind it has now shifted into Montana. Aloft, a deep
longwave trough continues to dig into the Four Corners region with
pronounced southwest flow atop the region. Surface flow continues
to come out of the north with RAP/NAM soundings still showing
enough of a warm layer aloft to keep precipitation in far
southeastern portions of the coverage area as -FZRA/PL while the
rest of the coverage area is prevailing -SN. For some locales,
roughly along a corridor of Rice Lake through the Twin Cities to
near Mankato, there looks to be some icy mixture in amongst the
precipitation but it is also mainly -SN per surface reports.

The longwave trough is expected to flatten out as the day
progresses today, helping to nudge the surface low and the frontal
system as a whole off to the east and northeast. This will bring
an eventual end to the precipitation, but not before a weak
shortwave trough axis aloft moves northeast through the area
within the longwave flow. This is helping keep efficiently
precipitation going across the area. QPFs are even impressive for
this 6-9 hour period, in the 0.10"-0.15" range, and are helping
to be realized by a small PVA max in advance of the trough.
Nevertheless, cooling of the overall column, particularly in the
DGZ with plenty of moisture available, is making for a transition
to mainly wet snow across the area. Where snow is most persistent
(western and northern portions), up to an additional 3 inches can
be expected. Further south and east, closer to an inch of
accumulation with the added ice of up to a tenth.

The precipitation will wind down late morning with no additional
precipitation expected from this afternoon on through tonight. In
fact, skies will gradually clear out this evening on the way to
mostly clear skies by sunrise Wednesday morning. The only issue by
then will be very cold wind chills in the -15F to -25F as a winds
increase due to a tightened pressure gradient on the eastern
fringes of the incoming high pressure center. Along with the
clearing due to the high pressure, cold air advection will also
accompany the high. Max temps today will only range from the mid-
teens to mid-20s, which will be followed by lows tonight between
nearly -10F and +5F.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The long term concerns are the snow possibilities returning
Thu/Thu night and again Sat/Sat night.

We begin with a quiet and cool weather day Wednesday with high
pressure moving across the area. Temperatures remain 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

Timing of the next short wave with the 00Z models looks to be on
track for the Thu/Thu night period. We should see clouds increase
into Thursday with snow develop over at least the southwest
portion of the cwa through Thursday afternoon. This spread rapidly
northeast with the trough Thursday night. There was some threat of
loss of ice over the far southeast portion of the area Thursday
night as the trough lifts through. However, the GEFS probabilities
and overall site plumes for P-type indicate mainly snow over the
area. Did trail ice off a bit to the southeast to include a slight
chance ZR- mainly late Thu night to the far southeast. Snowfall
amounts currently range in the one to three inch category. This
may change if the system slows more.

Following the Thursday system, the models drive more energy
northeast toward the western Great Lakes Saturday/Saturday night.
The 00Z GFS has trended back to is highly amplified trough
developing a significant Colorado/Oklahoma panhandle cyclone as it
lifts toward eastern Iowa late Saturday night. This provides a
rather heavy band of snow to the southeast portion of the cwa
during this period. The ECMWF is less amplified with this trough
but still provides generous forcing and QPF potential to the
region.

These two system will have to be monitored for possible headlines.
Temperatures appear to trend back toward at least normal values
by late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The precip has ended at most sites at TAF issuance, but the
MVFR/IVR deck will linger through the afternoon across the eastern
part of the area. VFR is already developing over west central MN,
and that will work eastward by evening. VFR is then expected this
evening and overnight, with clear skies for Wednesday. Northwest
winds between 10 and 15 knots (with gusts to between 20 and 25
knots at MN sites) will diminish this eve and back to westerly for
Wednesday (at speeds around 5-8 knots).

KMSP...
Expect to see cigs rise above 1700 feet by around 20Z, then become
VFR by 02Z. Northwest winds gradually back to west overnight, then
southwest Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
      SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind W 5 kts.
Sat...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
variable 5 knots or less.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201545
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
945 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

There will continue to be lingering snow and freezing rain and
drizzle across the Northland this morning. We had many reports of
freezing drizzle and rain in the Twin Ports and along the North
Shore, so updated the forecast to include this in the forecast
through early this afternoon. Overall, precipitation will be
diminishing from south to the north today, but there could be
lingering freezing drizzle and snow through this afternoon,
especially across far northern Minnesota, the North Shore, and the
South Shore. The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisories expire at noon, and planning on sticking with that
timing for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Low pressure will continue to impact the Northland today, although
it will gradually lose its grip on the region as the day wears on.
LIFR/IFR conditions will be fairly widespread at the beginning of
the period, with improvement to MVFR/VFR as the day wears on. By
tonight, we should see VFR conditions across the entire region.
Snow will be most widespread early, with gradual improvement
throughout the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  -4  19  -2 /  90   0   0   0
INL  12 -12  18  -8 /  90  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  60   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  70  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201223
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Low pressure will continue to impact the Northland today, although
it will gradually lose its grip on the region as the day wears on.
LIFR/IFR conditions will be fairly widespread at the beginning of
the period, with improvement to MVFR/VFR as the day wears on. By
tonight, we should see VFR conditions across the entire region.
Snow will be most widespread early, with gradual improvement
throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  -4  19  -2 / 100   0   0   0
INL  12 -12  18  -8 / 100  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  80  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201223
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Low pressure will continue to impact the Northland today, although
it will gradually lose its grip on the region as the day wears on.
LIFR/IFR conditions will be fairly widespread at the beginning of
the period, with improvement to MVFR/VFR as the day wears on. By
tonight, we should see VFR conditions across the entire region.
Snow will be most widespread early, with gradual improvement
throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  -4  19  -2 / 100   0   0   0
INL  12 -12  18  -8 / 100  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  80  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 201131
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
531 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

While the complex storm system is expected to shift off to the
east and bring an end to all precipitation across the WFO MPX
coverage area by this afternoon, still a tricky morning forecast
before all is said and done.

Surface analysis shows a low pressure center over the small
portion of the IA/WI border, with a warm front extending eastward
and a cold front extending southwestward. The center of high
pressure behind it has now shifted into Montana. Aloft, a deep
longwave trough continues to dig into the Four Corners region with
pronounced southwest flow atop the region. Surface flow continues
to come out of the north with RAP/NAM soundings still showing
enough of a warm layer aloft to keep precipitation in far
southeastern portions of the coverage area as -FZRA/PL while the
rest of the coverage area is prevailing -SN. For some locales,
roughly along a corridor of Rice Lake through the Twin Cities to
near Mankato, there looks to be some icy mixture in amongst the
precipitation but it is also mainly -SN per surface reports.

The longwave trough is expected to flatten out as the day
progresses today, helping to nudge the surface low and the frontal
system as a whole off to the east and northeast. This will bring
an eventual end to the precipitation, but not before a weak
shortwave trough axis aloft moves northeast through the area
within the longwave flow. This is helping keep efficiently
precipitation going across the area. QPFs are even impressive for
this 6-9 hour period, in the 0.10"-0.15" range, and are helping
to be realized by a small PVA max in advance of the trough.
Nevertheless, cooling of the overall column, particularly in the
DGZ with plenty of moisture available, is making for a transition
to mainly wet snow across the area. Where snow is most persistent
(western and northern portions), up to an additional 3 inches can
be expected. Further south and east, closer to an inch of
accumulation with the added ice of up to a tenth.

The precipitation will wind down late morning with no additional
precipitation expected from this afternoon on through tonight. In
fact, skies will gradually clear out this evening on the way to
mostly clear skies by sunrise Wednesday morning. The only issue by
then will be very cold wind chills in the -15F to -25F as a winds
increase due to a tightened pressure gradient on the eastern
fringes of the incoming high pressure center. Along with the
clearing due to the high pressure, cold air advection will also
accompany the high. Max temps today will only range from the mid-
teens to mid-20s, which will be followed by lows tonight between
nearly -10F and +5F.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The long term concerns are the snow possibilities returning
Thu/Thu night and again Sat/Sat night.

We begin with a quiet and cool weather day Wednesday with high
pressure moving across the area. Temperatures remain 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

Timing of the next short wave with the 00Z models looks to be on
track for the Thu/Thu night period. We should see clouds increase
into Thursday with snow develop over at least the southwest
portion of the cwa through Thursday afternoon. This spread rapidly
northeast with the trough Thursday night. There was some threat of
loss of ice over the far southeast portion of the area Thursday
night as the trough lifts through. However, the GEFS probabilities
and overall site plumes for P-type indicate mainly snow over the
area. Did trail ice off a bit to the southeast to include a slight
chance ZR- mainly late Thu night to the far southeast. Snowfall
amounts currently range in the one to three inch category. This
may change if the system slows more.

Following the Thursday system, the models drive more energy
northeast toward the western Great Lakes Saturday/Saturday night.
The 00Z GFS has trended back to is highly amplified trough
developing a significant Colorado/Oklahoma panhandle cyclone as it
lifts toward eastern Iowa late Saturday night. This provides a
rather heavy band of snow to the southeast portion of the cwa
during this period. The ECMWF is less amplified with this trough
but still provides generous forcing and QPF potential to the
region.

These two system will have to be monitored for possible headlines.
Temperatures appear to trend back toward at least normal values
by late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Will still be dealing with mainly -SN (mixture at KEAU) for
roughly the first couple hours of the 20/12z TAF period.
Visibilities may run between 2SM-5SM during the times of precip.
By 20/15z, all precipitation is expected to be done and
visibilities up over 6SM. Main issue is then ceilings, which are
likely to run in the MVFR range through mid-afternoon. Going into
the evening hours, as high pressure from the west starts to really
exert its influence, skies will gradually clear out, resulting in
just high cirrus overnight through Wednesday morning.

KMSP...A few additional rounds of -SN, possibly mixed with -PL,
will move across the MSP area through 20/14z. Little to no
additional accumulation is expected. Low stratus will remain in
place through much of the day, including the start of the evening
push. There is some variability as to whether ceilings will be
above or below 1700ft. Conditions expected to rise to VFR around
or after 21/00z then remain as such through the rest of the TAF
period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
      SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind W 5 kts.
Sat...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
variable 5 knots or less.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 201008
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
408 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

While the complex storm system is expected to shift off to the
east and bring an end to all precipitation across the WFO MPX
coverage area by this afternoon, still a tricky morning forecast
before all is said and done.

Surface analysis shows a low pressure center over the small
portion of the IA/WI border, with a warm front extending eastward
and a cold front extending southwestward. The center of high
pressure behind it has now shifted into Montana. Aloft, a deep
longwave trough continues to dig into the Four Corners region with
pronounced southwest flow atop the region. Surface flow continues
to come out of the north with RAP/NAM soundings still showing
enough of a warm layer aloft to keep precipitation in far
southeastern portions of the coverage area as -FZRA/PL while the
rest of the coverage area is prevailing -SN. For some locales,
roughly along a corridor of Rice Lake through the Twin Cities to
near Mankato, there looks to be some icy mixture in amongst the
precipitation but it is also mainly -SN per surface reports.

The longwave trough is expected to flatten out as the day
progresses today, helping to nudge the surface low and the frontal
system as a whole off to the east and northeast. This will bring
an eventual end to the precipitation, but not before a weak
shortwave trough axis aloft moves northeast through the area
within the longwave flow. This is helping keep efficiently
precipitation going across the area. QPFs are even impressive for
this 6-9 hour period, in the 0.10"-0.15" range, and are helping
to be realized by a small PVA max in advance of the trough.
Nevertheless, cooling of the overall column, particularly in the
DGZ with plenty of moisture available, is making for a transition
to mainly wet snow across the area. Where snow is most persistent
(western and northern portions), up to an additional 3 inches can
be expected. Further south and east, closer to an inch of
accumulation with the added ice of up to a tenth.

The precipitation will wind down late morning with no additional
precipitation expected from this afternoon on through tonight. In
fact, skies will gradually clear out this evening on the way to
mostly clear skies by sunrise Wednesday morning. The only issue by
then will be very cold wind chills in the -15F to -25F as a winds
increase due to a tightened pressure gradient on the eastern
fringes of the incoming high pressure center. Along with the
clearing due to the high pressure, cold air advection will also
accompany the high. Max temps today will only range from the mid-
teens to mid-20s, which will be followed by lows tonight between
nearly -10F and +5F.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The long term concerns are the snow possibilities returning
Thu/Thu night and again Sat/Sat night.

We begin with a quiet and cool weather day Wednesday with high
pressure moving across the area. Temperatures remain 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

Timing of the next short wave with the 00Z models looks to be on
track for the Thu/Thu night period. We should see clouds increase
into Thursday with snow develop over at least the southwest
portion of the cwa through Thursday afternoon. This spread rapidly
northeast with the trough Thursday night. There was some threat of
loss of ice over the far southeast portion of the area Thursday
night as the trough lifts through. However, the GEFS probabilities
and overall site plumes for P-type indicate mainly snow over the
area. Did trail ice off a bit to the southeast to include a slight
chance ZR- mainly late Thu night to the far southeast. Snowfall
amounts currently range in the one to three inch category. This
may change if the system slows more.

Following the Thursday system, the models drive more energy
northeast toward the western Great Lakes Saturday/Saturday night.
The 00Z GFS has trended back to is highly amplified trough
developing a significant Colorado/Oklahoma panhandle cyclone as it
lifts toward eastern Iowa late Saturday night. This provides a
rather heavy band of snow to the southeast portion of the cwa
during this period. The ECMWF is less amplified with this trough
but still provides generous forcing and QPF potential to the
region.

These two system will have to be monitored for possible headlines.
Temperatures appear to trend back toward at least normal values
by late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Next round of precip is rapidly developing down by Omaha. This
looks to have two parts that may go on either side of the Twin
Cities with a band of snow going across southwest into central MN,
with a band of FZRA and PL going across southeast MN toward EAU.
Continued to follow the HRRR for timing which has been pretty
consistent over the last 8 hours. Followed the GFS for timing cig
improvements late afternoon/early evening.

KMSP...HRRR has been pretty consistent with an IFR type vis snow
moving in between 9z and 11z. May get an inch out of it, with a
more snow pellet type snow like we saw Monday afternoon. Depending
on how strong subsidence is behind the morning wave, we could see
cigs improve a bit faster than what we have.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
      SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR. Chc IFR/-sn. Wind W 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200954
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

MVFR and some IFR ceilings were becoming more numerous this
evening as an area of low pressure and a shortwave affect the
region. Much of the precipitation has diminished late this evening
and the lake effect band over far western Lake Superior was
showing signs of become less organized. Drying aloft has led to
diminished ice in the clouds and freezing drizzle or freezing rain
over parts of northwest Wisconsin. Saturation should again
increase later tonight for most areas as forcing again increases
with and light to moderate snow should become more widespread,
especially over northern Minnesota.

As the forcing decreases during the day Tuesday, the chance for
snow will diminish and ceilings will increase. Conditions will
improve to VFR late afternoon or during the evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  -4  19  -2 / 100   0   0   0
INL  11 -12  18  -8 / 100  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  80  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200954
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

MVFR and some IFR ceilings were becoming more numerous this
evening as an area of low pressure and a shortwave affect the
region. Much of the precipitation has diminished late this evening
and the lake effect band over far western Lake Superior was
showing signs of become less organized. Drying aloft has led to
diminished ice in the clouds and freezing drizzle or freezing rain
over parts of northwest Wisconsin. Saturation should again
increase later tonight for most areas as forcing again increases
with and light to moderate snow should become more widespread,
especially over northern Minnesota.

As the forcing decreases during the day Tuesday, the chance for
snow will diminish and ceilings will increase. Conditions will
improve to VFR late afternoon or during the evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  -4  19  -2 / 100   0   0   0
INL  11 -12  18  -8 / 100  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  80  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200954
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

MVFR and some IFR ceilings were becoming more numerous this
evening as an area of low pressure and a shortwave affect the
region. Much of the precipitation has diminished late this evening
and the lake effect band over far western Lake Superior was
showing signs of become less organized. Drying aloft has led to
diminished ice in the clouds and freezing drizzle or freezing rain
over parts of northwest Wisconsin. Saturation should again
increase later tonight for most areas as forcing again increases
with and light to moderate snow should become more widespread,
especially over northern Minnesota.

As the forcing decreases during the day Tuesday, the chance for
snow will diminish and ceilings will increase. Conditions will
improve to VFR late afternoon or during the evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  -4  19  -2 / 100   0   0   0
INL  11 -12  18  -8 / 100  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  80  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200954
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the Northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from Sand Island, WI west towards the Twin Ports and towards
Cloquet, Sawyer, and Cromwell in Carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties north-northeast towards
Itasca and Koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over Lake Superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
AFD issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove Douglas county from the Winter Storm Warning, replacing
with a Winter Weather Advisory, but keeping the Carlton
county/southern St. Louis county zone in the Warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast Minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest Wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that`s driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central Great Lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the Bayfield Peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest Wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
Minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.
Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest Wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
GFS are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.
High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the CWA. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast Minnesota.
Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

MVFR and some IFR ceilings were becoming more numerous this
evening as an area of low pressure and a shortwave affect the
region. Much of the precipitation has diminished late this evening
and the lake effect band over far western Lake Superior was
showing signs of become less organized. Drying aloft has led to
diminished ice in the clouds and freezing drizzle or freezing rain
over parts of northwest Wisconsin. Saturation should again
increase later tonight for most areas as forcing again increases
with and light to moderate snow should become more widespread,
especially over northern Minnesota.

As the forcing decreases during the day Tuesday, the chance for
snow will diminish and ceilings will increase. Conditions will
improve to VFR late afternoon or during the evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  -4  19  -2 / 100   0   0   0
INL  11 -12  18  -8 / 100  10   0   0
BRD  17  -9  19  -4 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  24  -3  20  -4 /  80  10   0   0
ASX  24   3  22   1 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200544
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1144 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The lake effect snow band has been becoming less organized over
the past hour or so as shear increases. Increasing shear was
forecast as 850mb winds veer but we were unsure how much of a
destructive effect it would have. The snowfall rates will not be
as high as earlier this evening when it was an inch per hour at
times but snow should continue. There could also be some freezing
drizzle that occurs as far north as the Superior area. We`ve had
reports in Hayward and Gile so far.

Area radars show precipitation increasing into western Minnesota
with convective showers in northwest Iowa entering southern
Minnesota. Snow should increase in both intensity and coverage
over the next several hours. We will leave the Winter Storm
Warning in place for now over Douglas/Carlton/Southern Saint Louis
Counties but it may be changed back to a Winter Weather Advisory
later tonight if the lake effect band remains disorganized.

UPDATE Issued at 854 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

A lake effect band of snow continues over far northern Douglas
County, including the Superior area, through Fond Du Lac and into
southeast Carlton County. Spotters report snowfall around an inch
per hour in Superior and other observers have reported heavy snow
in parts of Duluth and far northern Wisconsin. We are leaning
toward upgrading the Winter Weather Advisory for Douglas, Southern
Saint Louis, and Carlton Counties to a warning for the heavy snow.
Overall the snow has diminished across these counties but that
band of heavy lake effect snow should continue for several more
hours and may gradually shift north as 850MB winds veer overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 757 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The snow has diminished for now across much of northwest
Wisconsin with observations indicating most of the snow was
light. Snow has increased over northern Minnesota, especially from
the Walker and Longville areas northeast through the Iron Range
into the Arrowhead. This snow has developed quicker than expected
and adjustments to the forecast have been made. We increased snow
amounts some there as well, especially through the evening hours.
A band of heavier snow was also occurring through portions of the
Twin Ports into southeast Carlton County. This was partially
driven by lake processes and we increased snowfall there. We`ll
have to watch that area closely as the low level winds and
temperatures change little into the early morning hours which
could lead to heavy snowfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Northland will continue to be affected by snow and areas of
freezing rain through Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure
over eastern Iowa will continue lifting towards southern Michigan
this afternoon and evening. A mid-level frontogenetical band
across northwest Wisconsin and the forcing from the area of low
pressure will continue to produce snow across east-central MN and
northwest WI through at least this evening. Areas of freezing rain
are forecast in northwest Wisconsin through tonight and early
Tuesday because of the lack of cold enough air in the saturated
layer aloft to ensure sufficient ice crystal seeding for snow.
Price County, and areas to the south and east, will be the most
affected by the freezing rain with up to a couple tenths of an
inch of icing. Some of the freezing rain may fall as sleet because
of refreezing potential because of much colder air near the
surface. Another wave of snow will spread into the Northland later
tonight from the southwest due to large-scale forcing from an
approaching from mid/upper trough. This next wave will primarily
bring more snow to central and northern MN, but areas of northwest
WI will get some additional light snow, too. All together, it will
be a snowy or icy stretch of weather for the Northland through
early Tuesday. The snow and freezing rain will diminish from the
south Tuesday. Most of the precipitation should end by the
afternoon, but there could be lingering very light snow across far
northern MN. Colder air will begin to work its way into the
Northland from the northwest Tuesday in the wake of the departing
snow.

Tonight`s lows will range from the low teens in northwest
WI to near 0 degrees across the Canadian border region.
Tomorrow`s highs will be in the middle and lower 20s in northwest
WI and the teens across central and northeast MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The main concerns for the long term include overnight low
temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with the potential
for light snow Thursday night and Friday.

By Tuesday evening the mid-level vort max and associated inverted
surface trough will be located over northern Minnesota, northwest
Ontario, and western Upper Michigan. These features will continue
to move toward the northeast overnight with rising heights and
surface high pressure to moving into the region. Skies will
gradually clear from the southwest overnight with wind speeds
diminishing. Think we`ll have efficient radiational cooling and
have lowered min temps below the consensus blends toward the
cooler bias-corrected versions of the SREF and HiResARW. Expect
overnight lows from the low single digits above zero along the
south shore and portions of north-central Wisconsin, to around
15 below zero over portions of central and northeast Minnesota.
Mostly sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with below average
temperatures in the teens to low 20s above zero. Wednesday night
looks cold once again with efficient radiational cooling. Warm air
advection aloft may limit the cooling so opted to carry temps
near zero along the south shore to around -11 for areas in the
Iron Range. Interior portions of northwest Wisconsin will likely
dip to -5 to -10, as well.

As the surface ridge glides farther east Thursday, temperatures
will trend warmer and approach normal readings for most locations.
Highs will top out in the middle to upper 20s. A few low 30s
aren`t out of the question, either. The southerly to southeasterly
winds will also increase moisture across the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough for Thursday night and Friday. As the
trough moves through the Northland, look for light snow to
develop and spread northeast across the area during the evening.
The best forcing for ascent will be short-lived with snow tapering
off over central Minnesota early Friday morning and ending during
the afternoon for northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. A
few inches of accumulation are possible from this fast-moving
system.

Models diverge in their handling of the forecast details after
Friday. Temperatures will continue their warming trend for the
weekend with highs near normal in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
will return by Saturday afternoon, and a few models spit out a
few snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. With the variety of
solutions offered, opted to keep only chance POPs in the picture
Saturday night with lower values on Sunday. None of the guidance
features a well-organized system, so nuisance snow amounts of less
than an inch seem favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

MVFR and some IFR ceilings were becoming more numerous this
evening as an area of low pressure and a shortwave affect the
region. Much of the precipitation has diminished late this evening
and the lake effect band over far western Lake Superior was
showing signs of become less organized. Drying aloft has led to
diminished ice in the clouds and freezing drizzle or freezing rain
over parts of northwest Wisconsin. Saturation should again
increase later tonight for most areas as forcing again increases
with and light to moderate snow should become more widespread,
especially over northern Minnesota.

As the forcing decreases during the day Tuesday, the chance for
snow will diminish and ceilings will increase. Conditions will
improve to VFR late afternoon or during the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  18  -3  19 / 100  90   0   0
INL   0  11 -11  18 /  90  90  10   0
BRD   9  17  -9  19 /  90  80   0   0
HYR  13  23  -2  21 /  90  80  10   0
ASX  14  22   4  22 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ002>004-
     006>009.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KMPX 200517
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1117 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Just finished a significant update to PoPs for the rest of
tonight. We are in a "lull", but we are not anticipating the
current situation of widespread light freezing drizzle and snow to
end before the next wave gets here after 6z, so basically dropped
80+ pops in for the rest of tonight across the entire MPX area.
As for the snowfall forecast, did lower totals by about an inch
for our western tier of counties as the deformation band has setup
just west of our CWA this evening, with the HRRR and HopWRF both
pushing the 4 to 6 inch type snow totals west of the MPX coverage
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The afternoon regional radar which was overlaid with the day
cloud phase satellite imagery (RGB), showed the wavy elements of
the clouds, which correlated nicely with the higher reflectivity.
These enhanced returns on the radar are related with an elevated
warm air advection regime, and a upper jet core moving across the
Upper Midwest. Although surface observations had only indicated
some light snow, mixed with freezing rain or sleet, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some of the enhanced returns on radar having
heavier sleet, or some heavier snowfall for the next couple of
hours.

The forecast tonight, and into Tuesday morning will be based a
strong short wave moving out of the Rockies, and a pronounced
thermal gradient aloft indicating a mixed bag of precipitation in
the far southeast 1/3 of MPX forecast area.

The precipitation type issue is based on a very pronounced dry
layer initially which coincides with the lack of ice formation in
the clouds. Not until late tonight will the atmosphere moisten up
again to get into the preferred dendritic growth zone region, or
at least cold enough in the moist layer to generate ice vs
supercooled liquid water.

Most models support an increase in lift/moisture in the dendritic
growth zone region after midnight in southwest Minnesota. This area
will spread rapidly northeast across southern/central Minnesota, by
3 am, and into west central Wisconsin by 6 am. Models are also
indicating steeper lapse rates (700/500 MB aloft) developing
overnight. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some thunder in far
southern Minnesota after midnight. This scenario of thunder is also
supported in the forecast WRF models that have higher reflectivity
moving into southern Minnesota between midnight and 6 am.

Precipitation type is the main concern in far south central,
southeast Minnesota, as well as portions of west central Wisconsin
tonight. This is related to the 0C thermal boundary (Aloft) that
moves northward once again ahead of the next short wave tonight.
QPF amounts are not overly heavy through Tuesday morning, but the
majority of the precipitation occurs in a 3 to 6 hour time frame.
So, locally moderate to heavy snowfall is possible where the best
energy/lift coincides with the dendritic growth zone in west
central/central Minnesota. Where the precipitation type is mixed,
snowfall amounts will be much lighter with a coating of ice from
Albert Lea, Minnesota, northeast to Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The long term period will feature below normal temps for the middle
of the week, a likely light snow event for Thursday night, and
temperatures warming to near or even slightly above normal for the
weekend and into early next week.

By tomorrow evening, the system will have departed to the east, with
the cool down underway.  Surface winds will have turned
northwesterly, and a cool canadian high pressure will be moving in
from the northwest.  Clearing skies and the arrival of a colder
airmass (in addition to fresh snow cover for some of the area) will
allow temperatures to drop below zero for much of the area. With
the high in place for Wednesday, expect plenty of sunshine, but
temperatures held around 15 to 20 in areas with snow. Western MN
and western WI will likely see temepratures 5-10 degrees warmer
due to the bare ground and more widespread tree cover.

Thursday will begin quiet, with the high departing to our east and
southerly winds developing.  Meanwhile, the longwave trough
across the western CONUS will become quite amplified and positively
tilted, putting us in a southwest flow pattern.  By Thursday night,
a shortwave trough will eject from the southwest CONUS on a
northeast course, with a likely light snow event expected.  This
will be a quick moving wave with warm air advection enhancing lift
along with a strengthening upper jet.  It still looks to be a 1 to
3" of snow type of event.

Moderating temepratures will continue from Thursday right into the
weekend as the zonal pattern keeps the bitter cold to our north.  By
the weekend, high temperatures should reach the mid 30s, a few
degrees above normal.  The pattern for the weekend typically means
more active weather for the middle of the country, and another
shortwave does eject from the southwest again on Saturday.  The
models diverge with this system, so currently confidence is low in
its path.  The ECMWF would bring light snow through much of southern
MN, while the GFS keeps it well south.  Following a blended approach
of this with the forecast reading a chance of snow for much of the
area Saturday afternoon-night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Next round of precip is rapidly developing down by Omaha. This
looks to have two parts that may go on either side of the Twin
Cities with a band of snow going across southwest into central MN,
with a band of FZRA and PL going across southeast MN toward EAU.
Continued to follow the HRRR for timing which has been pretty
consistent over the last 8 hours. Followed the GFS for timing cig
improvements late afternoon/early evening.

KMSP...HRRR has been pretty consistent with an IFR type vis snow
moving in between 9z and 11z. May get an inch out of it, with a
more snow pellet type snow like we saw Monday afternoon. Depending
on how strong subsidence is behind the morning wave, we could see
cigs improve a bit faster than what we have.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
      SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR. Chc IFR/-sn. Wind W 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 200517
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1117 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Just finished a significant update to PoPs for the rest of
tonight. We are in a "lull", but we are not anticipating the
current situation of widespread light freezing drizzle and snow to
end before the next wave gets here after 6z, so basically dropped
80+ pops in for the rest of tonight across the entire MPX area.
As for the snowfall forecast, did lower totals by about an inch
for our western tier of counties as the deformation band has setup
just west of our CWA this evening, with the HRRR and HopWRF both
pushing the 4 to 6 inch type snow totals west of the MPX coverage
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The afternoon regional radar which was overlaid with the day
cloud phase satellite imagery (RGB), showed the wavy elements of
the clouds, which correlated nicely with the higher reflectivity.
These enhanced returns on the radar are related with an elevated
warm air advection regime, and a upper jet core moving across the
Upper Midwest. Although surface observations had only indicated
some light snow, mixed with freezing rain or sleet, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some of the enhanced returns on radar having
heavier sleet, or some heavier snowfall for the next couple of
hours.

The forecast tonight, and into Tuesday morning will be based a
strong short wave moving out of the Rockies, and a pronounced
thermal gradient aloft indicating a mixed bag of precipitation in
the far southeast 1/3 of MPX forecast area.

The precipitation type issue is based on a very pronounced dry
layer initially which coincides with the lack of ice formation in
the clouds. Not until late tonight will the atmosphere moisten up
again to get into the preferred dendritic growth zone region, or
at least cold enough in the moist layer to generate ice vs
supercooled liquid water.

Most models support an increase in lift/moisture in the dendritic
growth zone region after midnight in southwest Minnesota. This area
will spread rapidly northeast across southern/central Minnesota, by
3 am, and into west central Wisconsin by 6 am. Models are also
indicating steeper lapse rates (700/500 MB aloft) developing
overnight. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some thunder in far
southern Minnesota after midnight. This scenario of thunder is also
supported in the forecast WRF models that have higher reflectivity
moving into southern Minnesota between midnight and 6 am.

Precipitation type is the main concern in far south central,
southeast Minnesota, as well as portions of west central Wisconsin
tonight. This is related to the 0C thermal boundary (Aloft) that
moves northward once again ahead of the next short wave tonight.
QPF amounts are not overly heavy through Tuesday morning, but the
majority of the precipitation occurs in a 3 to 6 hour time frame.
So, locally moderate to heavy snowfall is possible where the best
energy/lift coincides with the dendritic growth zone in west
central/central Minnesota. Where the precipitation type is mixed,
snowfall amounts will be much lighter with a coating of ice from
Albert Lea, Minnesota, northeast to Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The long term period will feature below normal temps for the middle
of the week, a likely light snow event for Thursday night, and
temperatures warming to near or even slightly above normal for the
weekend and into early next week.

By tomorrow evening, the system will have departed to the east, with
the cool down underway.  Surface winds will have turned
northwesterly, and a cool canadian high pressure will be moving in
from the northwest.  Clearing skies and the arrival of a colder
airmass (in addition to fresh snow cover for some of the area) will
allow temperatures to drop below zero for much of the area. With
the high in place for Wednesday, expect plenty of sunshine, but
temperatures held around 15 to 20 in areas with snow. Western MN
and western WI will likely see temepratures 5-10 degrees warmer
due to the bare ground and more widespread tree cover.

Thursday will begin quiet, with the high departing to our east and
southerly winds developing.  Meanwhile, the longwave trough
across the western CONUS will become quite amplified and positively
tilted, putting us in a southwest flow pattern.  By Thursday night,
a shortwave trough will eject from the southwest CONUS on a
northeast course, with a likely light snow event expected.  This
will be a quick moving wave with warm air advection enhancing lift
along with a strengthening upper jet.  It still looks to be a 1 to
3" of snow type of event.

Moderating temepratures will continue from Thursday right into the
weekend as the zonal pattern keeps the bitter cold to our north.  By
the weekend, high temperatures should reach the mid 30s, a few
degrees above normal.  The pattern for the weekend typically means
more active weather for the middle of the country, and another
shortwave does eject from the southwest again on Saturday.  The
models diverge with this system, so currently confidence is low in
its path.  The ECMWF would bring light snow through much of southern
MN, while the GFS keeps it well south.  Following a blended approach
of this with the forecast reading a chance of snow for much of the
area Saturday afternoon-night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Next round of precip is rapidly developing down by Omaha. This
looks to have two parts that may go on either side of the Twin
Cities with a band of snow going across southwest into central MN,
with a band of FZRA and PL going across southeast MN toward EAU.
Continued to follow the HRRR for timing which has been pretty
consistent over the last 8 hours. Followed the GFS for timing cig
improvements late afternoon/early evening.

KMSP...HRRR has been pretty consistent with an IFR type vis snow
moving in between 9z and 11z. May get an inch out of it, with a
more snow pellet type snow like we saw Monday afternoon. Depending
on how strong subsidence is behind the morning wave, we could see
cigs improve a bit faster than what we have.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
      SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR. Chc IFR/-sn. Wind W 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200254
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
854 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

A lake effect band of snow continues over far northern Douglas
County, including the Superior area, through Fond Du Lac and into
southeast Carlton County. Spotters report snowfall around an inch
per hour in Superior and other observers have reported heavy snow
in parts of Duluth and far northern Wisconsin. We are leaning
toward upgrading the Winter Weather Advisory for Douglas, Southern
Saint Louis, and Carlton Counties to a warning for the heavy snow.
Overall the snow has diminished across these counties but that
band of heavy lake effect snow should continue for several more
hours and may gradually shift north as 850MB winds veer overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 757 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The snow has diminished for now across much of northwest
Wisconsin with observations indicating most of the snow was
light. Snow has increased over northern Minnesota, especially from
the Walker and Longville areas northeast through the Iron Range
into the Arrowhead. This snow has developed quicker than expected
and adjustments to the forecast have been made. We increased snow
amounts some there as well, especially through the evening hours.
A band of heavier snow was also occurring through portions of the
Twin Ports into southeast Carlton County. This was partially
driven by lake processes and we increased snowfall there. We`ll
have to watch that area closely as the low level winds and
temperatures change little into the early morning hours which
could lead to heavy snowfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Northland will continue to be affected by snow and areas of
freezing rain through Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure
over eastern Iowa will continue lifting towards southern Michigan
this afternoon and evening. A mid-level frontogenetical band
across northwest Wisconsin and the forcing from the area of low
pressure will continue to produce snow across east-central MN and
northwest WI through at least this evening. Areas of freezing rain
are forecast in northwest Wisconsin through tonight and early
Tuesday because of the lack of cold enough air in the saturated
layer aloft to ensure sufficient ice crystal seeding for snow.
Price County, and areas to the south and east, will be the most
affected by the freezing rain with up to a couple tenths of an
inch of icing. Some of the freezing rain may fall as sleet because
of refreezing potential because of much colder air near the
surface. Another wave of snow will spread into the Northland later
tonight from the southwest due to large-scale forcing from an
approaching from mid/upper trough. This next wave will primarily
bring more snow to central and northern MN, but areas of northwest
WI will get some additional light snow, too. All together, it will
be a snowy or icy stretch of weather for the Northland through
early Tuesday. The snow and freezing rain will diminish from the
south Tuesday. Most of the precipitation should end by the
afternoon, but there could be lingering very light snow across far
northern MN. Colder air will begin to work its way into the
Northland from the northwest Tuesday in the wake of the departing
snow.

Tonight`s lows will range from the low teens in northwest
WI to near 0 degrees across the Canadian border region.
Tomorrow`s highs will be in the middle and lower 20s in northwest
WI and the teens across central and northeast MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The main concerns for the long term include overnight low
temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with the potential
for light snow Thursday night and Friday.

By Tuesday evening the mid-level vort max and associated inverted
surface trough will be located over northern Minnesota, northwest
Ontario, and western Upper Michigan. These features will continue
to move toward the northeast overnight with rising heights and
surface high pressure to moving into the region. Skies will
gradually clear from the southwest overnight with wind speeds
diminishing. Think we`ll have efficient radiational cooling and
have lowered min temps below the consensus blends toward the
cooler bias-corrected versions of the SREF and HiResARW. Expect
overnight lows from the low single digits above zero along the
south shore and portions of north-central Wisconsin, to around
15 below zero over portions of central and northeast Minnesota.
Mostly sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with below average
temperatures in the teens to low 20s above zero. Wednesday night
looks cold once again with efficient radiational cooling. Warm air
advection aloft may limit the cooling so opted to carry temps
near zero along the south shore to around -11 for areas in the
Iron Range. Interior portions of northwest Wisconsin will likely
dip to -5 to -10, as well.

As the surface ridge glides farther east Thursday, temperatures
will trend warmer and approach normal readings for most locations.
Highs will top out in the middle to upper 20s. A few low 30s
aren`t out of the question, either. The southerly to southeasterly
winds will also increase moisture across the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough for Thursday night and Friday. As the
trough moves through the Northland, look for light snow to
develop and spread northeast across the area during the evening.
The best forcing for ascent will be short-lived with snow tapering
off over central Minnesota early Friday morning and ending during
the afternoon for northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. A
few inches of accumulation are possible from this fast-moving
system.

Models diverge in their handling of the forecast details after
Friday. Temperatures will continue their warming trend for the
weekend with highs near normal in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
will return by Saturday afternoon, and a few models spit out a
few snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. With the variety of
solutions offered, opted to keep only chance POPs in the picture
Saturday night with lower values on Sunday. None of the guidance
features a well-organized system, so nuisance snow amounts of less
than an inch seem favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An area of low pressure and upper level shortwave will affect the
Northland tonight into Tuesday morning. An area of FGEN forcing is
expected to strengthen as well. These features will continue to
cause light snow with a wintry mix possible over portions of
northwest Wisconsin. Snow will expand in coverage and intensity
over much of northern Minnesota tonight and should decrease for a
time over much of northwest Wisconsin this evening. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected for most areas through the period with
the visibility dropping to below a mile at times. Areas close to
Lake Superior, including the Twin Ports and Ashland will see
higher winds causing blowing and drifting.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  18  -3  19 / 100  90   0   0
INL   0  11 -11  18 /  90  90  10   0
BRD   9  17  -9  19 /  90  80   0   0
HYR  13  23  -2  21 /  90  80  10   0
ASX  14  22   4  22 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200254
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
854 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

A lake effect band of snow continues over far northern Douglas
County, including the Superior area, through Fond Du Lac and into
southeast Carlton County. Spotters report snowfall around an inch
per hour in Superior and other observers have reported heavy snow
in parts of Duluth and far northern Wisconsin. We are leaning
toward upgrading the Winter Weather Advisory for Douglas, Southern
Saint Louis, and Carlton Counties to a warning for the heavy snow.
Overall the snow has diminished across these counties but that
band of heavy lake effect snow should continue for several more
hours and may gradually shift north as 850MB winds veer overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 757 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The snow has diminished for now across much of northwest
Wisconsin with observations indicating most of the snow was
light. Snow has increased over northern Minnesota, especially from
the Walker and Longville areas northeast through the Iron Range
into the Arrowhead. This snow has developed quicker than expected
and adjustments to the forecast have been made. We increased snow
amounts some there as well, especially through the evening hours.
A band of heavier snow was also occurring through portions of the
Twin Ports into southeast Carlton County. This was partially
driven by lake processes and we increased snowfall there. We`ll
have to watch that area closely as the low level winds and
temperatures change little into the early morning hours which
could lead to heavy snowfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Northland will continue to be affected by snow and areas of
freezing rain through Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure
over eastern Iowa will continue lifting towards southern Michigan
this afternoon and evening. A mid-level frontogenetical band
across northwest Wisconsin and the forcing from the area of low
pressure will continue to produce snow across east-central MN and
northwest WI through at least this evening. Areas of freezing rain
are forecast in northwest Wisconsin through tonight and early
Tuesday because of the lack of cold enough air in the saturated
layer aloft to ensure sufficient ice crystal seeding for snow.
Price County, and areas to the south and east, will be the most
affected by the freezing rain with up to a couple tenths of an
inch of icing. Some of the freezing rain may fall as sleet because
of refreezing potential because of much colder air near the
surface. Another wave of snow will spread into the Northland later
tonight from the southwest due to large-scale forcing from an
approaching from mid/upper trough. This next wave will primarily
bring more snow to central and northern MN, but areas of northwest
WI will get some additional light snow, too. All together, it will
be a snowy or icy stretch of weather for the Northland through
early Tuesday. The snow and freezing rain will diminish from the
south Tuesday. Most of the precipitation should end by the
afternoon, but there could be lingering very light snow across far
northern MN. Colder air will begin to work its way into the
Northland from the northwest Tuesday in the wake of the departing
snow.

Tonight`s lows will range from the low teens in northwest
WI to near 0 degrees across the Canadian border region.
Tomorrow`s highs will be in the middle and lower 20s in northwest
WI and the teens across central and northeast MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The main concerns for the long term include overnight low
temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with the potential
for light snow Thursday night and Friday.

By Tuesday evening the mid-level vort max and associated inverted
surface trough will be located over northern Minnesota, northwest
Ontario, and western Upper Michigan. These features will continue
to move toward the northeast overnight with rising heights and
surface high pressure to moving into the region. Skies will
gradually clear from the southwest overnight with wind speeds
diminishing. Think we`ll have efficient radiational cooling and
have lowered min temps below the consensus blends toward the
cooler bias-corrected versions of the SREF and HiResARW. Expect
overnight lows from the low single digits above zero along the
south shore and portions of north-central Wisconsin, to around
15 below zero over portions of central and northeast Minnesota.
Mostly sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with below average
temperatures in the teens to low 20s above zero. Wednesday night
looks cold once again with efficient radiational cooling. Warm air
advection aloft may limit the cooling so opted to carry temps
near zero along the south shore to around -11 for areas in the
Iron Range. Interior portions of northwest Wisconsin will likely
dip to -5 to -10, as well.

As the surface ridge glides farther east Thursday, temperatures
will trend warmer and approach normal readings for most locations.
Highs will top out in the middle to upper 20s. A few low 30s
aren`t out of the question, either. The southerly to southeasterly
winds will also increase moisture across the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough for Thursday night and Friday. As the
trough moves through the Northland, look for light snow to
develop and spread northeast across the area during the evening.
The best forcing for ascent will be short-lived with snow tapering
off over central Minnesota early Friday morning and ending during
the afternoon for northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. A
few inches of accumulation are possible from this fast-moving
system.

Models diverge in their handling of the forecast details after
Friday. Temperatures will continue their warming trend for the
weekend with highs near normal in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
will return by Saturday afternoon, and a few models spit out a
few snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. With the variety of
solutions offered, opted to keep only chance POPs in the picture
Saturday night with lower values on Sunday. None of the guidance
features a well-organized system, so nuisance snow amounts of less
than an inch seem favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An area of low pressure and upper level shortwave will affect the
Northland tonight into Tuesday morning. An area of FGEN forcing is
expected to strengthen as well. These features will continue to
cause light snow with a wintry mix possible over portions of
northwest Wisconsin. Snow will expand in coverage and intensity
over much of northern Minnesota tonight and should decrease for a
time over much of northwest Wisconsin this evening. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected for most areas through the period with
the visibility dropping to below a mile at times. Areas close to
Lake Superior, including the Twin Ports and Ashland will see
higher winds causing blowing and drifting.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  18  -3  19 / 100  90   0   0
INL   0  11 -11  18 /  90  90  10   0
BRD   9  17  -9  19 /  90  80   0   0
HYR  13  23  -2  21 /  90  80  10   0
ASX  14  22   4  22 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 200157
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
757 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The snow has diminished for now across much of northwest
Wisconsin with observations indicating most of the snow was
light. Snow has increased over northern Minnesota, especially from
the Walker and Longville areas northeast through the Iron Range
into the Arrowhead. This snow has developed quicker than expected
and adjustments to the forecast have been made. We increased snow
amounts some there as well, especially through the evening hours.
A band of heavier snow was also occurring through portions of the
Twin Ports into southeast Carlton County. This was partially
driven by lake processes and we increased snowfall there. We`ll
have to watch that area closely as the low level winds and
temperatures change little into the early morning hours which
could lead to heavy snowfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Northland will continue to be affected by snow and areas of
freezing rain through Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure
over eastern Iowa will continue lifting towards southern Michigan
this afternoon and evening. A mid-level frontogenetical band
across northwest Wisconsin and the forcing from the area of low
pressure will continue to produce snow across east-central MN and
northwest WI through at least this evening. Areas of freezing rain
are forecast in northwest Wisconsin through tonight and early
Tuesday because of the lack of cold enough air in the saturated
layer aloft to ensure sufficient ice crystal seeding for snow.
Price County, and areas to the south and east, will be the most
affected by the freezing rain with up to a couple tenths of an
inch of icing. Some of the freezing rain may fall as sleet because
of refreezing potential because of much colder air near the
surface. Another wave of snow will spread into the Northland later
tonight from the southwest due to large-scale forcing from an
approaching from mid/upper trough. This next wave will primarily
bring more snow to central and northern MN, but areas of northwest
WI will get some additional light snow, too. All together, it will
be a snowy or icy stretch of weather for the Northland through
early Tuesday. The snow and freezing rain will diminish from the
south Tuesday. Most of the precipitation should end by the
afternoon, but there could be lingering very light snow across far
northern MN. Colder air will begin to work its way into the
Northland from the northwest Tuesday in the wake of the departing
snow.

Tonight`s lows will range from the low teens in northwest
WI to near 0 degrees across the Canadian border region.
Tomorrow`s highs will be in the middle and lower 20s in northwest
WI and the teens across central and northeast MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The main concerns for the long term include overnight low
temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with the potential
for light snow Thursday night and Friday.

By Tuesday evening the mid-level vort max and associated inverted
surface trough will be located over northern Minnesota, northwest
Ontario, and western Upper Michigan. These features will continue
to move toward the northeast overnight with rising heights and
surface high pressure to moving into the region. Skies will
gradually clear from the southwest overnight with wind speeds
diminishing. Think we`ll have efficient radiational cooling and
have lowered min temps below the consensus blends toward the
cooler bias-corrected versions of the SREF and HiResARW. Expect
overnight lows from the low single digits above zero along the
south shore and portions of north-central Wisconsin, to around
15 below zero over portions of central and northeast Minnesota.
Mostly sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with below average
temperatures in the teens to low 20s above zero. Wednesday night
looks cold once again with efficient radiational cooling. Warm air
advection aloft may limit the cooling so opted to carry temps
near zero along the south shore to around -11 for areas in the
Iron Range. Interior portions of northwest Wisconsin will likely
dip to -5 to -10, as well.

As the surface ridge glides farther east Thursday, temperatures
will trend warmer and approach normal readings for most locations.
Highs will top out in the middle to upper 20s. A few low 30s
aren`t out of the question, either. The southerly to southeasterly
winds will also increase moisture across the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough for Thursday night and Friday. As the
trough moves through the Northland, look for light snow to
develop and spread northeast across the area during the evening.
The best forcing for ascent will be short-lived with snow tapering
off over central Minnesota early Friday morning and ending during
the afternoon for northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. A
few inches of accumulation are possible from this fast-moving
system.

Models diverge in their handling of the forecast details after
Friday. Temperatures will continue their warming trend for the
weekend with highs near normal in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
will return by Saturday afternoon, and a few models spit out a
few snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. With the variety of
solutions offered, opted to keep only chance POPs in the picture
Saturday night with lower values on Sunday. None of the guidance
features a well-organized system, so nuisance snow amounts of less
than an inch seem favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An area of low pressure and upper level shortwave will affect the
Northland tonight into Tuesday morning. An area of FGEN forcing is
expected to strengthen as well. These features will continue to
cause light snow with a wintry mix possible over portions of
northwest Wisconsin. Snow will expand in coverage and intensity
over much of northern Minnesota tonight and should decrease for a
time over much of northwest Wisconsin this evening. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected for most areas through the period with
the visibility dropping to below a mile at times. Areas close to
Lake Superior, including the Twin Ports and Ashland will see
higher winds causing blowing and drifting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  18  -3  19 / 100  90   0   0
INL   0  11 -11  18 /  90  90  10   0
BRD   9  17  -9  19 /  90  80   0   0
HYR  13  23  -2  21 /  90  80  10   0
ASX  14  22   4  22 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KMPX 200139
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Just finished a significant update to PoPs for the rest of
tonight. We are in a "lull", but we are not anticipating the
current situation of widespread light freezing drizzle and snow to
end before the next wave gets here after 6z, so basically dropped
80+ pops in for the rest of tonight across the entire MPX area.
As for the snowfall forecast, did lower totals by about an inch
for our western tier of counties as the deformation band has setup
just west of our CWA this evening, with the HRRR and HopWRF both
pushing the 4 to 6 inch type snow totals west of the MPX coverage
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The afternoon regional radar which was overlaid with the day
cloud phase satellite imagery (RGB), showed the wavy elements of
the clouds, which correlated nicely with the higher reflectivity.
These enhanced returns on the radar are related with an elevated
warm air advection regime, and a upper jet core moving across the
Upper Midwest. Although surface observations had only indicated
some light snow, mixed with freezing rain or sleet, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some of the enhanced returns on radar having
heavier sleet, or some heavier snowfall for the next couple of
hours.

The forecast tonight, and into Tuesday morning will be based a
strong short wave moving out of the Rockies, and a pronounced
thermal gradient aloft indicating a mixed bag of precipitation in
the far southeast 1/3 of MPX forecast area.

The precipitation type issue is based on a very pronounced dry
layer initially which coincides with the lack of ice formation in
the clouds. Not until late tonight will the atmosphere moisten up
again to get into the preferred dendritic growth zone region, or
at least cold enough in the moist layer to generate ice vs
supercooled liquid water.

Most models support an increase in lift/moisture in the dendritic
growth zone region after midnight in southwest Minnesota. This area
will spread rapidly northeast across southern/central Minnesota, by
3 am, and into west central Wisconsin by 6 am. Models are also
indicating steeper lapse rates (700/500 MB aloft) developing
overnight. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some thunder in far
southern Minnesota after midnight. This scenario of thunder is also
supported in the forecast WRF models that have higher reflectivity
moving into southern Minnesota between midnight and 6 am.

Precipitation type is the main concern in far south central,
southeast Minnesota, as well as portions of west central Wisconsin
tonight. This is related to the 0C thermal boundary (Aloft) that
moves northward once again ahead of the next short wave tonight.
QPF amounts are not overly heavy through Tuesday morning, but the
majority of the precipitation occurs in a 3 to 6 hour time frame.
So, locally moderate to heavy snowfall is possible where the best
energy/lift coincides with the dendritic growth zone in west
central/central Minnesota. Where the precipitation type is mixed,
snowfall amounts will be much lighter with a coating of ice from
Albert Lea, Minnesota, northeast to Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The long term period will feature below normal temps for the middle
of the week, a likely light snow event for Thursday night, and
temperatures warming to near or even slightly above normal for the
weekend and into early next week.

By tomorrow evening, the system will have departed to the east, with
the cool down underway.  Surface winds will have turned
northwesterly, and a cool canadian high pressure will be moving in
from the northwest.  Clearing skies and the arrival of a colder
airmass (in addition to fresh snow cover for some of the area) will
allow temperatures to drop below zero for much of the area. With
the high in place for Wednesday, expect plenty of sunshine, but
temperatures held around 15 to 20 in areas with snow. Western MN
and western WI will likely see temepratures 5-10 degrees warmer
due to the bare ground and more widespread tree cover.

Thursday will begin quiet, with the high departing to our east and
southerly winds developing.  Meanwhile, the longwave trough
across the western CONUS will become quite amplified and positively
tilted, putting us in a southwest flow pattern.  By Thursday night,
a shortwave trough will eject from the southwest CONUS on a
northeast course, with a likely light snow event expected.  This
will be a quick moving wave with warm air advection enhancing lift
along with a strengthening upper jet.  It still looks to be a 1 to
3" of snow type of event.

Moderating temepratures will continue from Thursday right into the
weekend as the zonal pattern keeps the bitter cold to our north.  By
the weekend, high temperatures should reach the mid 30s, a few
degrees above normal.  The pattern for the weekend typically means
more active weather for the middle of the country, and another
shortwave does eject from the southwest again on Saturday.  The
models diverge with this system, so currently confidence is low in
its path.  The ECMWF would bring light snow through much of southern
MN, while the GFS keeps it well south.  Following a blended approach
of this with the forecast reading a chance of snow for much of the
area Saturday afternoon-night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

We are in our "lull" between heavier precip bursts. Unfortunately,
this will not mean there will be no precip. Instead, we look to be
in a steady state situation until the next wave arrives. This
means a mix of fzdz/sn for all but AXN/STC for the first several
hours of the TAF. Followed the HRRR for timing next wave in. Will
be a fast mover, moving through the MPX area between 7z and 11z.
P-type will be similar to what we saw mid-day Monday, a
snow/pellet mix, more snow for RWF/STC trending to more pellet for
EAU. For AXN, it`s all snow, and could be quite heavy at that
between. Snow may linger into the afternoon at AXN, but will end
quickly in the morning everywhere else. No significant
improvements in cigs are expected until between 00z and 06z
Wednesday.

KMSP...Fairly high confidence in this TAF with several hours of
fzdz to start, followed by another burst of SN/PL around 8z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
      SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR. Chc IFR/-sn. Wind W 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 200034
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
634 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The afternoon regional radar which was overlaid with the day
cloud phase satellite imagery (RGB), showed the wavy elements of
the clouds, which correlated nicely with the higher reflectivity.
These enhanced returns on the radar are related with an elevated
warm air advection regime, and a upper jet core moving across the
Upper Midwest. Although surface observations had only indicated
some light snow, mixed with freezing rain or sleet, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some of the enhanced returns on radar having
heavier sleet, or some heavier snowfall for the next couple of
hours.

The forecast tonight, and into Tuesday morning will be based a
strong short wave moving out of the Rockies, and a pronounced
thermal gradient aloft indicating a mixed bag of precipitation in
the far southeast 1/3 of MPX forecast area.

The precipitation type issue is based on a very pronounced dry
layer initially which coincides with the lack of ice formation in
the clouds. Not until late tonight will the atmosphere moisten up
again to get into the preferred dendritic growth zone region, or
at least cold enough in the moist layer to generate ice vs
supercooled liquid water.

Most models support an increase in lift/moisture in the dendritic
growth zone region after midnight in southwest Minnesota. This area
will spread rapidly northeast across southern/central Minnesota, by
3 am, and into west central Wisconsin by 6 am. Models are also
indicating steeper lapse rates (700/500 MB aloft) developing
overnight. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some thunder in far
southern Minnesota after midnight. This scenario of thunder is also
supported in the forecast WRF models that have higher reflectivity
moving into southern Minnesota between midnight and 6 am.

Precipitation type is the main concern in far south central,
southeast Minnesota, as well as portions of west central Wisconsin
tonight. This is related to the 0C thermal boundary (Aloft) that
moves northward once again ahead of the next short wave tonight.
QPF amounts are not overly heavy through Tuesday morning, but the
majority of the precipitation occurs in a 3 to 6 hour time frame.
So, locally moderate to heavy snowfall is possible where the best
energy/lift coincides with the dendritic growth zone in west
central/central Minnesota. Where the precipitation type is mixed,
snowfall amounts will be much lighter with a coating of ice from
Albert Lea, Minnesota, northeast to Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The long term period will feature below normal temps for the middle
of the week, a likely light snow event for Thursday night, and
temperatures warming to near or even slightly above normal for the
weekend and into early next week.

By tomorrow evening, the system will have departed to the east, with
the cool down underway.  Surface winds will have turned
northwesterly, and a cool canadian high pressure will be moving in
from the northwest.  Clearing skies and the arrival of a colder
airmass (in addition to fresh snow cover for some of the area) will
allow temperatures to drop below zero for much of the area. With
the high in place for Wednesday, expect plenty of sunshine, but
temperatures held around 15 to 20 in areas with snow. Western MN
and western WI will likely see temepratures 5-10 degrees warmer
due to the bare ground and more widespread tree cover.

Thursday will begin quiet, with the high departing to our east and
southerly winds developing.  Meanwhile, the longwave trough
across the western CONUS will become quite amplified and positively
tilted, putting us in a southwest flow pattern.  By Thursday night,
a shortwave trough will eject from the southwest CONUS on a
northeast course, with a likely light snow event expected.  This
will be a quick moving wave with warm air advection enhancing lift
along with a strengthening upper jet.  It still looks to be a 1 to
3" of snow type of event.

Moderating temepratures will continue from Thursday right into the
weekend as the zonal pattern keeps the bitter cold to our north.  By
the weekend, high temperatures should reach the mid 30s, a few
degrees above normal.  The pattern for the weekend typically means
more active weather for the middle of the country, and another
shortwave does eject from the southwest again on Saturday.  The
models diverge with this system, so currently confidence is low in
its path.  The ECMWF would bring light snow through much of southern
MN, while the GFS keeps it well south.  Following a blended approach
of this with the forecast reading a chance of snow for much of the
area Saturday afternoon-night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

We are in our "lull" between heavier precip bursts. Unfortunately,
this will not mean there will be no precip. Instead, we look to be
in a steady state situation until the next wave arrives. This
means a mix of fzdz/sn for all but AXN/STC for the first several
hours of the TAF. Followed the HRRR for timing next wave in. Will
be a fast mover, moving through the MPX area between 7z and 11z.
P-type will be similar to what we saw mid-day Monday, a
snow/pellet mix, more snow for RWF/STC trending to more pellet for
EAU. For AXN, it`s all snow, and could be quite heavy at that
between. Snow may linger into the afternoon at AXN, but will end
quickly in the morning everywhere else. No significant
improvements in cigs are expected until between 00z and 06z
Wednesday.

KMSP...Fairly high confidence in this TAF with several hours of
fzdz to start, followed by another burst of SN/PL around 8z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...VFR in mrng, MVFR or lower in aftn. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind
      SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR. Chc IFR/-sn. Wind W 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KDLH 192345
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
545 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Northland will continue to be affected by snow and areas of
freezing rain through Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure
over eastern Iowa will continue lifting towards southern Michigan
this afternoon and evening. A mid-level frontogenetical band
across northwest Wisconsin and the forcing from the area of low
pressure will continue to produce snow across east-central MN and
northwest WI through at least this evening. Areas of freezing rain
are forecast in northwest Wisconsin through tonight and early
Tuesday because of the lack of cold enough air in the saturated
layer aloft to ensure sufficient ice crystal seeding for snow.
Price County, and areas to the south and east, will be the most
affected by the freezing rain with up to a couple tenths of an
inch of icing. Some of the freezing rain may fall as sleet because
of refreezing potential because of much colder air near the
surface. Another wave of snow will spread into the Northland later
tonight from the southwest due to large-scale forcing from an
approaching from mid/upper trough. This next wave will primarily
bring more snow to central and northern MN, but areas of northwest
WI will get some additional light snow, too. All together, it will
be a snowy or icy stretch of weather for the Northland through
early Tuesday. The snow and freezing rain will diminish from the
south Tuesday. Most of the precipitation should end by the
afternoon, but there could be lingering very light snow across far
northern MN. Colder air will begin to work its way into the
Northland from the northwest Tuesday in the wake of the departing
snow.

Tonight`s lows will range from the low teens in northwest
WI to near 0 degrees across the Canadian border region.
Tomorrow`s highs will be in the middle and lower 20s in northwest
WI and the teens across central and northeast MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The main concerns for the long term include overnight low
temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with the potential
for light snow Thursday night and Friday.

By Tuesday evening the mid-level vort max and associated inverted
surface trough will be located over northern Minnesota, northwest
Ontario, and western Upper Michigan. These features will continue
to move toward the northeast overnight with rising heights and
surface high pressure to moving into the region. Skies will
gradually clear from the southwest overnight with wind speeds
diminishing. Think we`ll have efficient radiational cooling and
have lowered min temps below the consensus blends toward the
cooler bias-corrected versions of the SREF and HiResARW. Expect
overnight lows from the low single digits above zero along the
south shore and portions of north-central Wisconsin, to around
15 below zero over portions of central and northeast Minnesota.
Mostly sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with below average
temperatures in the teens to low 20s above zero. Wednesday night
looks cold once again with efficient radiational cooling. Warm air
advection aloft may limit the cooling so opted to carry temps
near zero along the south shore to around -11 for areas in the
Iron Range. Interior portions of northwest Wisconsin will likely
dip to -5 to -10, as well.

As the surface ridge glides farther east Thursday, temperatures
will trend warmer and approach normal readings for most locations.
Highs will top out in the middle to upper 20s. A few low 30s
aren`t out of the question, either. The southerly to southeasterly
winds will also increase moisture across the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough for Thursday night and Friday. As the
trough moves through the Northland, look for light snow to
develop and spread northeast across the area during the evening.
The best forcing for ascent will be short-lived with snow tapering
off over central Minnesota early Friday morning and ending during
the afternoon for northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. A
few inches of accumulation are possible from this fast-moving
system.

Models diverge in their handling of the forecast details after
Friday. Temperatures will continue their warming trend for the
weekend with highs near normal in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
will return by Saturday afternoon, and a few models spit out a
few snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. With the variety of
solutions offered, opted to keep only chance POPs in the picture
Saturday night with lower values on Sunday. None of the guidance
features a well-organized system, so nuisance snow amounts of less
than an inch seem favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An area of low pressure and upper level shortwave will affect the
Northland tonight into Tuesday morning. An area of FGEN forcing is
expected to strengthen as well. These features will continue to
cause light snow with a wintry mix possible over portions of
northwest Wisconsin. Snow will expand in coverage and intensity
over much of northern Minnesota tonight and should decrease for a
time over much of northwest Wisconsin this evening. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected for most areas through the period with
the visibility dropping to below a mile at times. Areas close to
Lake Superior, including the Twin Ports and Ashland will see
higher winds causing blowing and drifting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  18  -3  19 /  90  90   0   0
INL   0  11 -11  18 /  90  90  10   0
BRD   9  17  -9  19 /  90  80   0   0
HYR  13  23  -2  21 /  80  80  10   0
ASX  14  22   4  22 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
     018-019-021-025-026-033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ020-
     034>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KDLH 192122
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Northland will continue to be affected by snow and areas of
freezing rain through Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure
over eastern Iowa will continue lifting towards southern Michigan
this afternoon and evening. A mid-level frontogenetical band
across northwest Wisconsin and the forcing from the area of low
pressure will continue to produce snow across east-central MN and
northwest WI through at least this evening. Areas of freezing rain
are forecast in northwest Wisconsin through tonight and early
Tuesday because of the lack of cold enough air in the saturated
layer aloft to ensure sufficient ice crystal seeding for snow.
Price County, and areas to the south and east, will be the most
affected by the freezing rain with up to a couple tenths of an
inch of icing. Some of the freezing rain may fall as sleet because
of refreezing potential because of much colder air near the
surface. Another wave of snow will spread into the Northland later
tonight from the southwest due to large-scale forcing from an
approaching from mid/upper trough. This next wave will primarily
bring more snow to central and northern MN, but areas of northwest
WI will get some additional light snow, too. All together, it will
be a snowy or icy stretch of weather for the Northland through
early Tuesday. The snow and freezing rain will diminish from the
south Tuesday. Most of the precipitation should end by the
afternoon, but there could be lingering very light snow across far
northern MN. Colder air will begin to work its way into the
Northland from the northwest Tuesday in the wake of the departing
snow.

Tonight`s lows will range from the low teens in northwest
WI to near 0 degrees across the Canadian border region.
Tomorrow`s highs will be in the middle and lower 20s in northwest
WI and the teens across central and northeast MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The main concerns for the long term include overnight low
temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with the potential
for light snow Thursday night and Friday.

By Tuesday evening the mid-level vort max and associated inverted
surface trough will be located over northern Minnesota, northwest
Ontario, and western Upper Michigan. These features will continue
to move toward the northeast overnight with rising heights and
surface high pressure to moving into the region. Skies will
gradually clear from the southwest overnight with wind speeds
diminishing. Think we`ll have efficient radiational cooling and
have lowered min temps below the consensus blends toward the
cooler bias-corrected versions of the SREF and HiResARW. Expect
overnight lows from the low single digits above zero along the
south shore and portions of north-central Wisconsin, to around
15 below zero over portions of central and northeast Minnesota.
Mostly sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with below average
temperatures in the teens to low 20s above zero. Wednesday night
looks cold once again with efficient radiational cooling. Warm air
advection aloft may limit the cooling so opted to carry temps
near zero along the south shore to around -11 for areas in the
Iron Range. Interior portions of northwest Wisconsin will likely
dip to -5 to -10, as well.

As the surface ridge glides farther east Thursday, temperatures
will trend warmer and approach normal readings for most locations.
Highs will top out in the middle to upper 20s. A few low 30s
aren`t out of the question, either. The southerly to southeasterly
winds will also increase moisture across the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough for Thursday night and Friday. As the
trough moves through the Northland, look for light snow to
develop and spread northeast across the area during the evening.
The best forcing for ascent will be short-lived with snow tapering
off over central Minnesota early Friday morning and ending during
the afternoon for northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. A
few inches of accumulation are possible from this fast-moving
system.

Models diverge in their handling of the forecast details after
Friday. Temperatures will continue their warming trend for the
weekend with highs near normal in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
will return by Saturday afternoon, and a few models spit out a
few snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. With the variety of
solutions offered, opted to keep only chance POPs in the picture
Saturday night with lower values on Sunday. None of the guidance
features a well-organized system, so nuisance snow amounts of less
than an inch seem favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

A band of light snow stretched from central Minnesota into
northern Wisconsin late this morning. The band will slowly lift
northward this afternoon and gradually decrease in intensity from
west to east. Visibility in the heavier snow band ranged from
around 1/4 mile to 1 1/2 miles. Think those visibilities will
continue before intensities decrease. Another round of snow is
expected tonight through Tuesday morning as an area of low
pressure moves from the Dakotas through the Upper Midwest. Wind
gusts will likely continue where the heaviest snow is located
through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  18  -3  19 /  90  90   0   0
INL   0  11 -11  18 /  90  90  10   0
BRD   9  17  -9  19 /  90  80   0   0
HYR  13  23  -2  21 /  80  80  10   0
ASX  14  22   4  22 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
     018-019-021-025-026-033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ020-
     034>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KMPX 192103
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The afternoon regional radar which was overlaid with the day
cloud phase satellite imagery (RGB), showed the wavy elements of
the clouds, which correlated nicely with the higher reflectivity.
These enhanced returns on the radar are related with an elevated
warm air advection regime, and a upper jet core moving across the
Upper Midwest. Although surface observations had only indicated
some light snow, mixed with freezing rain or sleet, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some of the enhanced returns on radar having
heavier sleet, or some heavier snowfall for the next couple of
hours.

The forecast tonight, and into Tuesday morning will be based a
strong short wave moving out of the Rockies, and a pronounced
thermal gradient aloft indicating a mixed bag of precipitation in
the far southeast 1/3 of MPX forecast area.

The precipitation type issue is based on a very pronounced dry
layer initially which coincides with the lack of ice formation in
the clouds. Not until late tonight will the atmosphere moisten up
again to get into the preferred dendritic growth zone region, or
at least cold enough in the moist layer to generate ice vs
supercooled liquid water.

Most models support an increase in lift/moisture in the dendritic
growth zone region after midnight in southwest Minnesota. This area
will spread rapidly northeast across southern/central Minnesota, by
3 am, and into west central Wisconsin by 6 am. Models are also
indicating steeper lapse rates (700/500 MB aloft) developing
overnight. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some thunder in far
southern Minnesota after midnight. This scenario of thunder is also
supported in the forecast WRF models that have higher reflectivity
moving into southern Minnesota between midnight and 6 am.

Precipitation type is the main concern in far south central,
southeast Minnesota, as well as portions of west central Wisconsin
tonight. This is related to the 0C thermal boundary (Aloft) that
moves northward once again ahead of the next short wave tonight.
QPF amounts are not overly heavy through Tuesday morning, but the
majority of the precipitation occurs in a 3 to 6 hour time frame.
So, locally moderate to heavy snowfall is possible where the best
energy/lift coincides with the dendritic growth zone in west
central/central Minnesota. Where the precipitation type is mixed,
snowfall amounts will be much lighter with a coating of ice from
Albert Lea, Minnesota, northeast to Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The long term period will feature below normal temps for the middle
of the week, a likely light snow event for Thursday night, and
temperatures warming to near or even slightly above normal for the
weekend and into early next week.

By tomorrow evening, the system will have departed to the east, with
the cool down underway.  Surface winds will have turned
northwesterly, and a cool canadian high pressure will be moving in
from the northwest.  Clearing skies and the arrival of a colder
airmass (in addition to fresh snow cover for some of the area) will
allow temperatures to drop below zero for much of the area. With
the high in place for Wednesday, expect plenty of sunshine, but
temperatures held around 15 to 20 in areas with snow. Western MN
and western WI will likely see temepratures 5-10 degrees warmer
due to the bare ground and more widespread tree cover.

Thursday will begin quiet, with the high departing to our east and
southerly winds developing.  Meanwhile, the longwave trough
across the western CONUS will become quite amplified and positively
tilted, putting us in a southwest flow pattern.  By Thursday night,
a shortwave trough will eject from the southwest CONUS on a
northeast course, with a likely light snow event expected.  This
will be a quick moving wave with warm air advection enhancing lift
along with a strengthening upper jet.  It still looks to be a 1 to
3" of snow type of event.

Moderating temepratures will continue from Thursday right into the
weekend as the zonal pattern keeps the bitter cold to our north.  By
the weekend, high temperatures should reach the mid 30s, a few
degrees above normal.  The pattern for the weekend typically means
more active weather for the middle of the country, and another
shortwave does eject from the southwest again on Saturday.  The
models diverge with this system, so currently confidence is low in
its path.  The ECMWF would bring light snow through much of southern
MN, while the GFS keeps it well south.  Following a blended approach
of this with the forecast reading a chance of snow for much of the
area Saturday afternoon-night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue through most of
the TAF period due to reduced visibilities caused by precipitation
as well as low ceiling heights. North-northeasterly winds will
remain sustained near 10 to 15kts through the evening hours with
continual chances for light snow. There is expected to be a break
in the continuous precipitation during the late evening and very
early hours of Tuesday before another steady band of precipitation
builds in from the west-southwest over the area. During the
break, visibilities will improve but ceilings are anticipated to
remain low below 30kft.

This following precipitation band is expected to produce snow for
West Central MN, however a period of sleet is possible for the
MKT-MSP-RNH-EAU area before precipitation turns completely over to
snow. By the end of the TAF period (18Z Tuesday), visibilities
will improve across Western MN but ceilings are anticipated to
MFVR. Otherwise, winds will remain predominately north-
northeasterly to northeasterly through the remainder of the TAF
period before winds back to out of the northwest in Western MN by
the end of the TAF period.

KMSP...We start this TAF period with MVFR ceilings and IFR
visibilities with light snow. Conditions are likely to improve
slightly this evening before degrading again early Tuesday with
another band of precipitation. A period of sleet is possible
during the mid-morning hours Tuesday before transitioning to snow.
Precipitation will likely end by 18Z Tuesday, but ceilings are
anticipated to remain MFVR through Tuesday afternoon. In
addition, winds will back to out of the northwest during the
afternoon on Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind SE 5 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...AMK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 192103
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The afternoon regional radar which was overlaid with the day
cloud phase satellite imagery (RGB), showed the wavy elements of
the clouds, which correlated nicely with the higher reflectivity.
These enhanced returns on the radar are related with an elevated
warm air advection regime, and a upper jet core moving across the
Upper Midwest. Although surface observations had only indicated
some light snow, mixed with freezing rain or sleet, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some of the enhanced returns on radar having
heavier sleet, or some heavier snowfall for the next couple of
hours.

The forecast tonight, and into Tuesday morning will be based a
strong short wave moving out of the Rockies, and a pronounced
thermal gradient aloft indicating a mixed bag of precipitation in
the far southeast 1/3 of MPX forecast area.

The precipitation type issue is based on a very pronounced dry
layer initially which coincides with the lack of ice formation in
the clouds. Not until late tonight will the atmosphere moisten up
again to get into the preferred dendritic growth zone region, or
at least cold enough in the moist layer to generate ice vs
supercooled liquid water.

Most models support an increase in lift/moisture in the dendritic
growth zone region after midnight in southwest Minnesota. This area
will spread rapidly northeast across southern/central Minnesota, by
3 am, and into west central Wisconsin by 6 am. Models are also
indicating steeper lapse rates (700/500 MB aloft) developing
overnight. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some thunder in far
southern Minnesota after midnight. This scenario of thunder is also
supported in the forecast WRF models that have higher reflectivity
moving into southern Minnesota between midnight and 6 am.

Precipitation type is the main concern in far south central,
southeast Minnesota, as well as portions of west central Wisconsin
tonight. This is related to the 0C thermal boundary (Aloft) that
moves northward once again ahead of the next short wave tonight.
QPF amounts are not overly heavy through Tuesday morning, but the
majority of the precipitation occurs in a 3 to 6 hour time frame.
So, locally moderate to heavy snowfall is possible where the best
energy/lift coincides with the dendritic growth zone in west
central/central Minnesota. Where the precipitation type is mixed,
snowfall amounts will be much lighter with a coating of ice from
Albert Lea, Minnesota, northeast to Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The long term period will feature below normal temps for the middle
of the week, a likely light snow event for Thursday night, and
temperatures warming to near or even slightly above normal for the
weekend and into early next week.

By tomorrow evening, the system will have departed to the east, with
the cool down underway.  Surface winds will have turned
northwesterly, and a cool canadian high pressure will be moving in
from the northwest.  Clearing skies and the arrival of a colder
airmass (in addition to fresh snow cover for some of the area) will
allow temperatures to drop below zero for much of the area. With
the high in place for Wednesday, expect plenty of sunshine, but
temperatures held around 15 to 20 in areas with snow. Western MN
and western WI will likely see temepratures 5-10 degrees warmer
due to the bare ground and more widespread tree cover.

Thursday will begin quiet, with the high departing to our east and
southerly winds developing.  Meanwhile, the longwave trough
across the western CONUS will become quite amplified and positively
tilted, putting us in a southwest flow pattern.  By Thursday night,
a shortwave trough will eject from the southwest CONUS on a
northeast course, with a likely light snow event expected.  This
will be a quick moving wave with warm air advection enhancing lift
along with a strengthening upper jet.  It still looks to be a 1 to
3" of snow type of event.

Moderating temepratures will continue from Thursday right into the
weekend as the zonal pattern keeps the bitter cold to our north.  By
the weekend, high temperatures should reach the mid 30s, a few
degrees above normal.  The pattern for the weekend typically means
more active weather for the middle of the country, and another
shortwave does eject from the southwest again on Saturday.  The
models diverge with this system, so currently confidence is low in
its path.  The ECMWF would bring light snow through much of southern
MN, while the GFS keeps it well south.  Following a blended approach
of this with the forecast reading a chance of snow for much of the
area Saturday afternoon-night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue through most of
the TAF period due to reduced visibilities caused by precipitation
as well as low ceiling heights. North-northeasterly winds will
remain sustained near 10 to 15kts through the evening hours with
continual chances for light snow. There is expected to be a break
in the continuous precipitation during the late evening and very
early hours of Tuesday before another steady band of precipitation
builds in from the west-southwest over the area. During the
break, visibilities will improve but ceilings are anticipated to
remain low below 30kft.

This following precipitation band is expected to produce snow for
West Central MN, however a period of sleet is possible for the
MKT-MSP-RNH-EAU area before precipitation turns completely over to
snow. By the end of the TAF period (18Z Tuesday), visibilities
will improve across Western MN but ceilings are anticipated to
MFVR. Otherwise, winds will remain predominately north-
northeasterly to northeasterly through the remainder of the TAF
period before winds back to out of the northwest in Western MN by
the end of the TAF period.

KMSP...We start this TAF period with MVFR ceilings and IFR
visibilities with light snow. Conditions are likely to improve
slightly this evening before degrading again early Tuesday with
another band of precipitation. A period of sleet is possible
during the mid-morning hours Tuesday before transitioning to snow.
Precipitation will likely end by 18Z Tuesday, but ceilings are
anticipated to remain MFVR through Tuesday afternoon. In
addition, winds will back to out of the northwest during the
afternoon on Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind SE 5 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...AMK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 191821
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1221 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Complicated forecast over the next 36 hours with a wintry mix
precip event commencing across the area, already underway in
parts of the WFO MPX coverage area.

Surface analysis shows a main area of low pressure over SE
Colorado/SW Nebraska with a cold front turning northeast through
central Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
One weak low pressure center per 3mb pressure analysis is found
along the front in southeastern MN. To the north of this front,
surface high pressure is nudging southward from
Alberta/Saskatchewan provinces into the Northern Plains. South of
the front, deep southerly flow on the western periphery of broad
Eastern CONUS high pressure is bringing above-normal moisture
amounts from the Deep South into the Great Lakes. In addition,
southwesterly flow in advance of a Pacific Northwest upper trough
is bringing Pacific moisture into the region. The position of the
front is key to the precipitation type as model soundings indicate
a shallow subfreezing layer near the surface, indicated by
temperatures in the teens well north of the front and in the 20s
near and just south of the front. However, the pronounced
southerly/southwesterly flow is allowing for a sufficiently deep
warm layer aloft to keep liquid aloft rather than ice for much of
the southern and eastern portions of the area for much of the day
today through tonight. While the prevailing p- type for much of
the coverage area looks to be -SN, the portions that do see -FZRA
(mainly southeast of a line from Redwood Falls-St. Michael-Rice
Lake) may well see around a tenth of an inch of ice, and
potentially near a quarter inch (from Albert Lea thru Red Wing
thru Eau Claire). These increased QPF and hence ice amounts line
up well with the 00z progs of the HopWRF, HRRR, RAP and NAMNest
along with collab with other offices. So while warning criteria is
not expected, a larger swath of ice is expected so have nudged up
ice amounts. Going back further west, which actually is where -SN
is already occurring, the current wave of -SN will continue for
much of the day and diminish slightly late this afternoon into
this evening before picking up again overnight through daybreak
Tuesday. In fact, in general, the main waves of precipitation look
to come this morning through mid-afternoon, then become less
widespread/intense late this afternoon through this evening before
picking up across much of the coverage area during the early
morning hours Tuesday. It is in this second batch that the greater
snow amounts will come for western and northern parts of the
coverage area (3-4" tonight- tomorrow compared to 1-2" today).
However, the greater ice amounts look to come today with slightly
lesser amounts tonight-tomorrow.

With the front having little movement until tomorrow, the
transition to all -SN for the entire coverage area will not
occur until mid-to-late day tomorrow. As such, have maintained
the mention of -FZRA for much of the southern and eastern portions
of the coverage area, including throughout the Twin Cities metro,
through tonight then shifting further east tomorrow. As such,
have maintained the winter weather advisory throughout the
coverage area. Main change was to move up the start time of the
advisory in western/central MN due to that part of the storm total
snow accumulation is already being realized this morning. The
precipitation will gradually wind down from west to east tomorrow
as the surface front shifts further away into the Great Lakes and
mid-Mississippi River Valley while high pressure slides south and
east from the Northern Plains.

Highs today and tomorrow will run quite similar to one another,
with mid-upper teens in western MN to lower-middle teens in
eastern MN into western WI. Lows tonight will also run quite
similar to lows this morning, ranging from around 10 in western MN
to the lower 20s in eastern MN and western WI.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Long term concerns remain timing of any trough energy ejecting from
the southwest during the period. Also, some warming expected.

The Tuesday system will exit the area leaving decreasing clouds
Tuesday night along with diminishing winds as high pressure builds
over the area. Then we expect cool and dry conditions to continue
through at least the first half of Thursday.

The next snow threat arrives later Thursday afternoon into the
southern cwa. The short wave ejects northeast across the area
through at least early Friday. The ECMWF is faster with this system
and drives a more northern stream trough extension through then. The
slower GFS holds back the trough and the upper flow isn`t as
split. It lifts a weak short waves northeast with a continuing
threat of small chance PoPs into Friday night. We will continue
the blended guidance trend at this time with the likely PoPs
spreading through Thursday night and trail them off through Friday
night. Snow amounts dont appears significant at this time,
perhaps another 1 to 3 inch type event.

The deterministic models diverge then into the weekend. Both models
drive more short wave energy northeast over the central CONUS with
cyclogenesis over the mid Mississippi River valley region Saturday.
It appears the anomalous Bermuda Ridge will flatten some as this
energy moves east and the western CONUS trough reloads. This will
mean at least a chance of precipitation moving through the area
Saturday/Saturday night.

Temperatures will remain below normal through much of the week but
should trend closer to normal again by late in the week and into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue through most of
the TAF period due to reduced visibilities caused by precipitation
as well as low ceiling heights. North-northeasterly winds will
remain sustained near 10 to 15kts through the evening hours with
continual chances for light snow. There is expected to be a break
in the continuous precipitation during the late evening and very
early hours of Tuesday before another steady band of precipitation
builds in from the west-southwest over the area. During the
break, visibilities will improve but ceilings are anticipated to
remain low below 30kft.

This following precipitation band is expected to produce snow for
West Central MN, however a period of sleet is possible for the
MKT-MSP-RNH-EAU area before precipitation turns completely over to
snow. By the end of the TAF period (18Z Tuesday), visibilities
will improve across Western MN but ceilings are anticipated to
MFVR. Otherwise, winds will remain predominately north-
northeasterly to northeasterly through the remainder of the TAF
period before winds back to out of the northwest in Western MN by
the end of the TAF period.

KMSP...We start this TAF period with MVFR ceilings and IFR
visibilities with light snow. Conditions are likely to improve
slightly this evening before degrading again early Tuesday with
another band of precipitation. A period of sleet is possible
during the mid-morning hours Tuesday before transitioning to snow.
Precipitation will likely end by 18Z Tuesday, but ceilings are
anticipated to remain MFVR through Tuesday afternoon. In
addition, winds will back to out of the northwest during the
afternoon on Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind SE 5 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...AMK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 191755 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1155 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Update for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Our active weather pattern continues today through much of the
day Tuesday, although we aren`t expecting snowfall amounts as high
as were observed yesterday. The synoptic pattern doesn`t change a
whole lot as we remain under the right-entrance region of the
160+ kt upper level jet streak. An 850 mb baroclinic zone is
progged to remain draped over northwest Wisconsin through Tuesday
afternoon, with a surface low pressure system currently over
central Kansas at 09z this morning translating northeastward over
eastern Iowa/northern Illinois this afternoon and evening.
Current radar imagery shows a band of higher reflectivity
extending from western South Dakota towards central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. This is associated with a band of 850-700 mb
frontogenetical forcing, which should bring light snow and
possibly freezing drizzle to portions of the Northland. The
expectation for p-types through Tuesday is for all snow over
northeast Minnesota, with a mix of snow, freezing drizzle, and
possibly freezing rain over northwest Wisconsin due to the
placement of the baroclinic zone. Some ice accretion is expected
over our eastern Wisconsin counties, including Washburn to Price
and into Ashland and Iron counties. Price county could be hit
particular hard with ice accretion, with up to 0.2" of ice
possible, which will occur mainly this afternoon through Tuesday
morning. Moreover, a few more inches of snow will be possible over
northwest Wisconsin as well through the evening.

Then, a stream of sheared positive vorticity advection will eject
out of a longwave trough, situated over the Intermountain West
states. This wave will ride along west of the 850 mb baroclinic
zone, which will bring more chances of snow to northeast
Minnesota, mainly tonight into Tuesday morning. The best chances
of snow will be between 9 PM tonight and 6 AM Tuesday morning,
with between 1 to 4" of more snow on top of what fell today. As
the surface low approaches, winds should be northeasterly over
Lake Superior, so there could be some lake enhancement along the
South Shore. Model soundings indicate that while the northeast
fetch is quite favorable for lake enhancement, the 850-surface
delta-T values are not as much, with values between 10 to 15
degrees C, so not ideal. In any case, there could be some seeding
of ice crystals over the South Shore, so increased the QPF over
this area to better account for higher snow totals. This on-shore
flow could also lead to gusty winds upstream of the flow, with
gusts between 20 to 25 mph over northwest Wisconsin this afternoon
and evening. This could also lead to some patchy blowing snow in
these areas. Due to the combination of ice and snow with this
system, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire
forecast area, including all of northwest Wisconsin and adjacent
areas of northeast Minnesota starting this morning, with the rest
of northeast Minnesota starting this evening when that second
trough arrives. Advisories go out through the afternoon Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Low pressure will move off to the east of the Northland on Tuesday
night, with little additional accumulation expected overnight. High
pressure will then push in from the southwest. It will likely take
some time to scour out the cloud cover in the wake of the departing
low pressure system, but we should see an increase in sunshine by
Wednesday. By 00Z Thursday, high pressure should be centered over
southern Minnesota. This area of high pressure will then move off to
the east of the Great Lakes on Wednesday night and Thursday. The
next system in southwest flow aloft will approach the region late
Thursday, with increasing clouds throughout the day. Some light snow
is expected to make it`s way into the region by late Thursday, with
light snow spreading across the area Thursday night. This system
will move northeast of the region on Friday, after bringing some
accumulating snow to the CWA. At this point, it doesn`t appear to
bring heavy snowfall, but widespread snowfall amounts of a couple
inches will be possible. High pressure will bring mainly dry weather
by Friday. The models start to show some dramatic differences by
Saturday and Sunday, with the European model indicating some snow
potential on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The GFS is much
farther south with this system, with little to no precipitation
across our CWA. Temperatures will be their coolest on Wednesday,
with highs ranging from the teens to lower 20s. By Thursday, we
should see highs in the 20s, and 20s to middle 30s by Friday,
Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows in the single digits below
zero on Tuesday night will rise to the teens above zero by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

A band of light snow stretched from central Minnesota into
northern Wisconsin late this morning. The band will slowly lift
northward this afternoon and gradually decrease in intensity from
west to east. Visibility in the heavier snow band ranged from
around 1/4 mile to 1 1/2 miles. Think those visibilities will
continue before intensities decrease. Another round of snow is
expected tonight through Tuesday morning as an area of low
pressure moves from the Dakotas through the Upper Midwest. Wind
gusts will likely continue where the heaviest snow is located
through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16   7  18  -1 /  90  80  70  10
INL  13  -3  13  -8 /  10  80  70  10
BRD  16   6  17  -5 /  80  90  60   0
HYR  20  10  22   0 /  90  80  60  10
ASX  18  11  21   5 /  90  80  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for MNZ010>012-018-019-021-025-026-033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ020-
     034>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KDLH 191217
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
617 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Our active weather pattern continues today through much of the
day Tuesday, although we aren`t expecting snowfall amounts as high
as were observed yesterday. The synoptic pattern doesn`t change a
whole lot as we remain under the right-entrance region of the
160+ kt upper level jet streak. An 850 mb baroclinic zone is
progged to remain draped over northwest Wisconsin through Tuesday
afternoon, with a surface low pressure system currently over
central Kansas at 09z this morning translating northeastward over
eastern Iowa/northern Illinois this afternoon and evening.
Current radar imagery shows a band of higher reflectivity
extending from western South Dakota towards central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. This is associated with a band of 850-700 mb
frontogenetical forcing, which should bring light snow and
possibly freezing drizzle to portions of the Northland. The
expectation for p-types through Tuesday is for all snow over
northeast Minnesota, with a mix of snow, freezing drizzle, and
possibly freezing rain over northwest Wisconsin due to the
placement of the baroclinic zone. Some ice accretion is expected
over our eastern Wisconsin counties, including Washburn to Price
and into Ashland and Iron counties. Price county could be hit
particular hard with ice accretion, with up to 0.2" of ice
possible, which will occur mainly this afternoon through Tuesday
morning. Moreover, a few more inches of snow will be possible over
northwest Wisconsin as well through the evening.

Then, a stream of sheared positive vorticity advection will eject
out of a longwave trough, situated over the Intermountain West
states. This wave will ride along west of the 850 mb baroclinic
zone, which will bring more chances of snow to northeast
Minnesota, mainly tonight into Tuesday morning. The best chances
of snow will be between 9 PM tonight and 6 AM Tuesday morning,
with between 1 to 4" of more snow on top of what fell today. As
the surface low approaches, winds should be northeasterly over
Lake Superior, so there could be some lake enhancement along the
South Shore. Model soundings indicate that while the northeast
fetch is quite favorable for lake enhancement, the 850-surface
delta-T values are not as much, with values between 10 to 15
degrees C, so not ideal. In any case, there could be some seeding
of ice crystals over the South Shore, so increased the QPF over
this area to better account for higher snow totals. This on-shore
flow could also lead to gusty winds upstream of the flow, with
gusts between 20 to 25 mph over northwest Wisconsin this afternoon
and evening. This could also lead to some patchy blowing snow in
these areas. Due to the combination of ice and snow with this
system, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire
forecast area, including all of northwest Wisconsin and adjacent
areas of northeast Minnesota starting this morning, with the rest
of northeast Minnesota starting this evening when that second
trough arrives. Advisories go out through the afternoon Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Low pressure will move off to the east of the Northland on Tuesday
night, with little additional accumulation expected overnight. High
pressure will then push in from the southwest. It will likely take
some time to scour out the cloud cover in the wake of the departing
low pressure system, but we should see an increase in sunshine by
Wednesday. By 00Z Thursday, high pressure should be centered over
southern Minnesota. This area of high pressure will then move off to
the east of the Great Lakes on Wednesday night and Thursday. The
next system in southwest flow aloft will approach the region late
Thursday, with increasing clouds throughout the day. Some light snow
is expected to make it`s way into the region by late Thursday, with
light snow spreading across the area Thursday night. This system
will move northeast of the region on Friday, after bringing some
accumulating snow to the CWA. At this point, it doesn`t appear to
bring heavy snowfall, but widespread snowfall amounts of a couple
inches will be possible. High pressure will bring mainly dry weather
by Friday. The models start to show some dramatic differences by
Saturday and Sunday, with the European model indicating some snow
potential on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The GFS is much
farther south with this system, with little to no precipitation
across our CWA. Temperatures will be their coolest on Wednesday,
with highs ranging from the teens to lower 20s. By Thursday, we
should see highs in the 20s, and 20s to middle 30s by Friday,
Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows in the single digits below
zero on Tuesday night will rise to the teens above zero by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An area of low pressure will impact the Northland TAF sites
throughout the period, with snow gradually becoming widespread
once again across the region. VFR/MVFR conditions will give way to
widespread MVFR and even some IFR CIG`s and VSBY`s as the day
wears on, with those conditions continuing through the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16   7  18  -1 /  90  80  70  10
INL  13  -3  13  -8 /  10  80  70  10
BRD  16   6  17  -5 /  70  90  60   0
HYR  20  10  22   0 /  90  70  60  10
ASX  19  11  21   5 /  90  80  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for MNZ010>012-018-019-021-025-026-033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ020-
     034>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 191211
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
611 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Complicated forecast over the next 36 hours with a wintry mix
precip event commencing across the area, already underway in
parts of the WFO MPX coverage area.

Surface analysis shows a main area of low pressure over SE
Colorado/SW Nebraska with a cold front turning northeast through
central Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
One weak low pressure center per 3mb pressure analysis is found
along the front in southeastern MN. To the north of this front,
surface high pressure is nudging southward from
Alberta/Saskatchewan provinces into the Northern Plains. South of
the front, deep southerly flow on the western periphery of broad
Eastern CONUS high pressure is bringing above-normal moisture
amounts from the Deep South into the Great Lakes. In addition,
southwesterly flow in advance of a Pacific Northwest upper trough
is bringing Pacific moisture into the region. The position of the
front is key to the precipitation type as model soundings indicate
a shallow subfreezing layer near the surface, indicated by
temperatures in the teens well north of the front and in the 20s
near and just south of the front. However, the pronounced
southerly/southwesterly flow is allowing for a sufficiently deep
warm layer aloft to keep liquid aloft rather than ice for much of
the southern and eastern portions of the area for much of the day
today through tonight. While the prevailing p- type for much of
the coverage area looks to be -SN, the portions that do see -FZRA
(mainly southeast of a line from Redwood Falls-St. Michael-Rice
Lake) may well see around a tenth of an inch of ice, and
potentially near a quarter inch (from Albert Lea thru Red Wing
thru Eau Claire). These increased QPF and hence ice amounts line
up well with the 00z progs of the HopWRF, HRRR, RAP and NAMNest
along with collab with other offices. So while warning criteria is
not expected, a larger swath of ice is expected so have nudged up
ice amounts. Going back further west, which actually is where -SN
is already occurring, the current wave of -SN will continue for
much of the day and diminish slightly late this afternoon into
this evening before picking up again overnight through daybreak
Tuesday. In fact, in general, the main waves of precipitation look
to come this morning through mid-afternoon, then become less
widespread/intense late this afternoon through this evening before
picking up across much of the coverage area during the early
morning hours Tuesday. It is in this second batch that the greater
snow amounts will come for western and northern parts of the
coverage area (3-4" tonight- tomorrow compared to 1-2" today).
However, the greater ice amounts look to come today with slightly
lesser amounts tonight-tomorrow.

With the front having little movement until tomorrow, the
transition to all -SN for the entire coverage area will not
occur until mid-to-late day tomorrow. As such, have maintained
the mention of -FZRA for much of the southern and eastern portions
of the coverage area, including throughout the Twin Cities metro,
through tonight then shifting further east tomorrow. As such,
have maintained the winter weather advisory throughout the
coverage area. Main change was to move up the start time of the
advisory in western/central MN due to that part of the storm total
snow accumulation is already being realized this morning. The
precipitation will gradually wind down from west to east tomorrow
as the surface front shifts further away into the Great Lakes and
mid-Mississippi River Valley while high pressure slides south and
east from the Northern Plains.

Highs today and tomorrow will run quite similar to one another,
with mid-upper teens in western MN to lower-middle teens in
eastern MN into western WI. Lows tonight will also run quite
similar to lows this morning, ranging from around 10 in western MN
to the lower 20s in eastern MN and western WI.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Long term concerns remain timing of any trough energy ejecting from
the southwest during the period. Also, some warming expected.

The Tuesday system will exit the area leaving decreasing clouds
Tuesday night along with diminishing winds as high pressure builds
over the area. Then we expect cool and dry conditions to continue
through at least the first half of Thursday.

The next snow threat arrives later Thursday afternoon into the
southern cwa. The short wave ejects northeast across the area
through at least early Friday. The ECMWF is faster with this system
and drives a more northern stream trough extension through then. The
slower GFS holds back the trough and the upper flow isn`t as
split. It lifts a weak short waves northeast with a continuing
threat of small chance PoPs into Friday night. We will continue
the blended guidance trend at this time with the likely PoPs
spreading through Thursday night and trail them off through Friday
night. Snow amounts dont appears significant at this time,
perhaps another 1 to 3 inch type event.

The deterministic models diverge then into the weekend. Both models
drive more short wave energy northeast over the central CONUS with
cyclogenesis over the mid Mississippi River valley region Saturday.
It appears the anomalous Bermuda Ridge will flatten some as this
energy moves east and the western CONUS trough reloads. This will
mean at least a chance of precipitation moving through the area
Saturday/Saturday night.

Temperatures will remain below normal through much of the week but
should trend closer to normal again by late in the week and into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Complex scenario to unfold over the next 30 hours, particularly
over southern MN into western WI where a mixture of -FZRA and -SN
may occur. Prevailing p-type throughout this event will be -SN but
timing of the -FZRA looks best late this morning through early
afternoon and then potentially late this evening before becoming
all -SN once again. Terminals to be impacted by -FZRA look to be
KMKT-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU. Confidence is a little higher in the earlier
timing so have included mention but -FZRA may easily extend
further in time so frequent AMDs may be necessary. Precipitation
does not look to wind down until midday tomorrow so MVFR-IFR
conditions will be prevalent by late this morning through tomorrow
morning for all sites.

KMSP...Precip will commence at KMSP around 14z, starting as mostly
if not all -SN. As the morning progresses, chances increase of
having -FZRA mix in. While this may improve ceiling/visibility,
obviously the freezing rain will present surface icing concerns.
Precipitation is likely to diminish later this afternoon into the
evening hours before resuming overnight, with greater confidence
of all -SN. Precipitation will steadily diminish during the day
tomorrow, possibly bringing a return of VFR conditions during the
afternoon hours tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind SE 5 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 191211
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
611 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Complicated forecast over the next 36 hours with a wintry mix
precip event commencing across the area, already underway in
parts of the WFO MPX coverage area.

Surface analysis shows a main area of low pressure over SE
Colorado/SW Nebraska with a cold front turning northeast through
central Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
One weak low pressure center per 3mb pressure analysis is found
along the front in southeastern MN. To the north of this front,
surface high pressure is nudging southward from
Alberta/Saskatchewan provinces into the Northern Plains. South of
the front, deep southerly flow on the western periphery of broad
Eastern CONUS high pressure is bringing above-normal moisture
amounts from the Deep South into the Great Lakes. In addition,
southwesterly flow in advance of a Pacific Northwest upper trough
is bringing Pacific moisture into the region. The position of the
front is key to the precipitation type as model soundings indicate
a shallow subfreezing layer near the surface, indicated by
temperatures in the teens well north of the front and in the 20s
near and just south of the front. However, the pronounced
southerly/southwesterly flow is allowing for a sufficiently deep
warm layer aloft to keep liquid aloft rather than ice for much of
the southern and eastern portions of the area for much of the day
today through tonight. While the prevailing p- type for much of
the coverage area looks to be -SN, the portions that do see -FZRA
(mainly southeast of a line from Redwood Falls-St. Michael-Rice
Lake) may well see around a tenth of an inch of ice, and
potentially near a quarter inch (from Albert Lea thru Red Wing
thru Eau Claire). These increased QPF and hence ice amounts line
up well with the 00z progs of the HopWRF, HRRR, RAP and NAMNest
along with collab with other offices. So while warning criteria is
not expected, a larger swath of ice is expected so have nudged up
ice amounts. Going back further west, which actually is where -SN
is already occurring, the current wave of -SN will continue for
much of the day and diminish slightly late this afternoon into
this evening before picking up again overnight through daybreak
Tuesday. In fact, in general, the main waves of precipitation look
to come this morning through mid-afternoon, then become less
widespread/intense late this afternoon through this evening before
picking up across much of the coverage area during the early
morning hours Tuesday. It is in this second batch that the greater
snow amounts will come for western and northern parts of the
coverage area (3-4" tonight- tomorrow compared to 1-2" today).
However, the greater ice amounts look to come today with slightly
lesser amounts tonight-tomorrow.

With the front having little movement until tomorrow, the
transition to all -SN for the entire coverage area will not
occur until mid-to-late day tomorrow. As such, have maintained
the mention of -FZRA for much of the southern and eastern portions
of the coverage area, including throughout the Twin Cities metro,
through tonight then shifting further east tomorrow. As such,
have maintained the winter weather advisory throughout the
coverage area. Main change was to move up the start time of the
advisory in western/central MN due to that part of the storm total
snow accumulation is already being realized this morning. The
precipitation will gradually wind down from west to east tomorrow
as the surface front shifts further away into the Great Lakes and
mid-Mississippi River Valley while high pressure slides south and
east from the Northern Plains.

Highs today and tomorrow will run quite similar to one another,
with mid-upper teens in western MN to lower-middle teens in
eastern MN into western WI. Lows tonight will also run quite
similar to lows this morning, ranging from around 10 in western MN
to the lower 20s in eastern MN and western WI.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Long term concerns remain timing of any trough energy ejecting from
the southwest during the period. Also, some warming expected.

The Tuesday system will exit the area leaving decreasing clouds
Tuesday night along with diminishing winds as high pressure builds
over the area. Then we expect cool and dry conditions to continue
through at least the first half of Thursday.

The next snow threat arrives later Thursday afternoon into the
southern cwa. The short wave ejects northeast across the area
through at least early Friday. The ECMWF is faster with this system
and drives a more northern stream trough extension through then. The
slower GFS holds back the trough and the upper flow isn`t as
split. It lifts a weak short waves northeast with a continuing
threat of small chance PoPs into Friday night. We will continue
the blended guidance trend at this time with the likely PoPs
spreading through Thursday night and trail them off through Friday
night. Snow amounts dont appears significant at this time,
perhaps another 1 to 3 inch type event.

The deterministic models diverge then into the weekend. Both models
drive more short wave energy northeast over the central CONUS with
cyclogenesis over the mid Mississippi River valley region Saturday.
It appears the anomalous Bermuda Ridge will flatten some as this
energy moves east and the western CONUS trough reloads. This will
mean at least a chance of precipitation moving through the area
Saturday/Saturday night.

Temperatures will remain below normal through much of the week but
should trend closer to normal again by late in the week and into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Complex scenario to unfold over the next 30 hours, particularly
over southern MN into western WI where a mixture of -FZRA and -SN
may occur. Prevailing p-type throughout this event will be -SN but
timing of the -FZRA looks best late this morning through early
afternoon and then potentially late this evening before becoming
all -SN once again. Terminals to be impacted by -FZRA look to be
KMKT-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU. Confidence is a little higher in the earlier
timing so have included mention but -FZRA may easily extend
further in time so frequent AMDs may be necessary. Precipitation
does not look to wind down until midday tomorrow so MVFR-IFR
conditions will be prevalent by late this morning through tomorrow
morning for all sites.

KMSP...Precip will commence at KMSP around 14z, starting as mostly
if not all -SN. As the morning progresses, chances increase of
having -FZRA mix in. While this may improve ceiling/visibility,
obviously the freezing rain will present surface icing concerns.
Precipitation is likely to diminish later this afternoon into the
evening hours before resuming overnight, with greater confidence
of all -SN. Precipitation will steadily diminish during the day
tomorrow, possibly bringing a return of VFR conditions during the
afternoon hours tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind SE 5 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 190951
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
351 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Our active weather pattern continues today through much of the
day Tuesday, although we aren`t expecting snowfall amounts as high
as were observed yesterday. The synoptic pattern doesn`t change a
whole lot as we remain under the right-entrance region of the
160+ kt upper level jet streak. An 850 mb baroclinic zone is
progged to remain draped over northwest Wisconsin through Tuesday
afternoon, with a surface low pressure system currently over
central Kansas at 09z this morning translating northeastward over
eastern Iowa/northern Illinois this afternoon and evening.
Current radar imagery shows a band of higher reflectivity
extending from western South Dakota towards central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. This is associated with a band of 850-700 mb
frontogenetical forcing, which should bring light snow and
possibly freezing drizzle to portions of the Northland. The
expectation for p-types through Tuesday is for all snow over
northeast Minnesota, with a mix of snow, freezing drizzle, and
possibly freezing rain over northwest Wisconsin due to the
placement of the baroclinic zone. Some ice accretion is expected
over our eastern Wisconsin counties, including Washburn to Price
and into Ashland and Iron counties. Price county could be hit
particular hard with ice accretion, with up to 0.2" of ice
possible, which will occur mainly this afternoon through Tuesday
morning. Moreover, a few more inches of snow will be possible over
northwest Wisconsin as well through the evening.

Then, a stream of sheared positive vorticity advection will eject
out of a longwave trough, situated over the Intermountain West
states. This wave will ride along west of the 850 mb baroclinic
zone, which will bring more chances of snow to northeast
Minnesota, mainly tonight into Tuesday morning. The best chances
of snow will be between 9 PM tonight and 6 AM Tuesday morning,
with between 1 to 4" of more snow on top of what fell today. As
the surface low approaches, winds should be northeasterly over
Lake Superior, so there could be some lake enhancement along the
South Shore. Model soundings indicate that while the northeast
fetch is quite favorable for lake enhancement, the 850-surface
delta-T values are not as much, with values between 10 to 15
degrees C, so not ideal. In any case, there could be some seeding
of ice crystals over the South Shore, so increased the QPF over
this area to better account for higher snow totals. This on-shore
flow could also lead to gusty winds upstream of the flow, with
gusts between 20 to 25 mph over northwest Wisconsin this afternoon
and evening. This could also lead to some patchy blowing snow in
these areas. Due to the combination of ice and snow with this
system, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire
forecast area, including all of northwest Wisconsin and adjacent
areas of northeast Minnesota starting this morning, with the rest
of northeast Minnesota starting this evening when that second
trough arrives. Advisories go out through the afternoon Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Low pressure will move off to the east of the Northland on Tuesday
night, with little additional accumulation expected overnight. High
pressure will then push in from the southwest. It will likely take
some time to scour out the cloud cover in the wake of the departing
low pressure system, but we should see an increase in sunshine by
Wednesday. By 00Z Thursday, high pressure should be centered over
southern Minnesota. This area of high pressure will then move off to
the east of the Great Lakes on Wednesday night and Thursday. The
next system in southwest flow aloft will approach the region late
Thursday, with increasing clouds throughout the day. Some light snow
is expected to make it`s way into the region by late Thursday, with
light snow spreading across the area Thursday night. This system
will move northeast of the region on Friday, after bringing some
accumulating snow to the CWA. At this point, it doesn`t appear to
bring heavy snowfall, but widespread snowfall amounts of a couple
inches will be possible. High pressure will bring mainly dry weather
by Friday. The models start to show some dramatic differences by
Saturday and Sunday, with the European model indicating some snow
potential on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The GFS is much
farther south with this system, with little to no precipitation
across our CWA. Temperatures will be their coolest on Wednesday,
with highs ranging from the teens to lower 20s. By Thursday, we
should see highs in the 20s, and 20s to middle 30s by Friday,
Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows in the single digits below
zero on Tuesday night will rise to the teens above zero by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

A cold front draped from around the Twin Cities northeast across
northern Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan is sagging slowly
southeast across Wisconsin tonight. Behind the front there is a
band if light snow and IFR/MVFR ceilings with mainly MVFR
visibilities that is affecting mainly KHYR, with some MVFR
ceilings also into KBRD, with VFR for KDLH, KHIB and KINL.
Conditions to remain very similar through approximately 18z, after
which the next wave of light snow moves northeast out of southern
Minnesota. Expect conditions to gradually deteriorate to MVFR,
perhaps to IFR after 18z as the snow moves in. Have kept to MVFR
for now as exact conditions somewhat uncertain at this point.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16   7  18  -1 /  90  80  70  10
INL  13  -3  13  -8 /  10  80  70  10
BRD  16   6  17  -5 /  70  90  60   0
HYR  20  10  22   0 /  90  70  60  10
ASX  19  11  21   5 /  90  80  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for MNZ010>012-018-019-021-025-026-033.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for MNZ020-034>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 190933
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Complicated forecast over the next 36 hours with a wintry mix precip
event commencing across the area, already underway in parts of the
WFO MPX coverage area.

Surface analysis shows a main area of low pressure over SE
Colorado/SW Nebraska with a cold front turning northeast through
central Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. One
weak low pressure center per 3mb pressure analysis is found along
the front in southeastern MN. To the north of this front, surface
high pressure is nudging southward from Alberta/Saskatchewan
provinces into the Northern Plains. South of the front, deep
southerly flow on the western periphery of broad Eastern CONUS high
pressure is bringing above-normal moisture amounts from the Deep
South into the Great Lakes. In addition, southwesterly flow in
advance of a Pacific Northwest upper trough is bringing Pacific
moisture into the region. The position of the front is key to the
precipitation type as model soundings indicate a shallow subfreezing
layer near the surface, indicated by temperatures in the teens well
north of the front and in the 20s near and just south of the front.
However, the pronounced southerly/southwesterly flow is allowing for
a sufficiently deep warm layer aloft to keep liquid aloft rather
than ice for much of the southern and eastern portions of the area
for much of the day today through tonight. While the prevailing p-
type for much of the coverage area looks to be -SN, the portions
that do see -FZRA (mainly southeast of a line from Redwood Falls-St.
Michael-Rice Lake) may well see around a tenth of an inch of ice,
and potentially near a quarter inch (from Albert Lea thru Red Wing
thru Eau Claire). These increased QPF and hence ice amounts line up
well with the 00z progs of the HopWRF, HRRR, RAP and NAMNest along
with collab with other offices. So while warning criteria is not
expected, a larger swath of ice is expected so have nudged up ice
amounts. Going back further west, which actually is where -SN is
already occurring, the current wave of -SN will continue for much of
the day and diminish slightly late this afternoon into this evening
before picking up again overnight through daybreak Tuesday. In fact,
in general, the main waves of precipitation look to come this
morning through mid-afternoon, then become less widespread/intense
late this afternoon through this evening before picking up across
much of the coverage area during the early morning hours Tuesday. It
is in this second batch that the greater snow amounts will come for
western and northern parts of the coverage area (3-4" tonight-
tomorrow compared to 1-2" today). However, the greater ice amounts
look to come today with slightly lesser amounts tonight-tomorrow.

With the front having little movement until tomorrow, the transition
to all -SN for the entire coverage area will not occur until mid-to-
late day tomorrow. As such, have maintained the mention of -FZRA for
much of the southern and eastern portions of the coverage area,
including throughout the Twin Cities metro, through tonight then
shifting further east tomorrow. As such, have maintained the winter
weather advisory throughout the coverage area. Main change was to
move up the start time of the advisory in western/central MN due to
that part of the storm total snow accumulation is already being
realized this morning. The precipitation will gradually wind down
from west to east tomorrow as the surface front shifts further away
into the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi River Valley while high
pressure slides south and east from the Northern Plains.

Highs today and tomorrow will run quite similar to one another, with
mid-upper teens in western MN to lower-middle teens in eastern MN
into western WI. Lows tonight will also run quite similar to lows
this morning, ranging from around 10 in western MN to the lower 20s
in eastern MN and western WI.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Long term concerns remain timing of any trough energy ejecting from
the southwest during the period. Also, some warming expected.

The Tuesday system will exit the area leaving decreasing clouds
Tuesday night along with diminishing winds as high pressure builds
over the area. Then we expect cool and dry conditions to continue
through at least the first half of Thursday.

The next snow threat arrives later Thursday afternoon into the
southern cwa. The short wave ejects northeast across the area
through at least early Friday. The ECMWF is faster with this system
and drives a more northern stream trough extension through then. The
slower GFS holds back the trough and the upper flow isnt as split.
It lifts a weak short waves northeast with a continuing threat of
small chance PoPs into Friday night. We will continue the blended
guidance trend at this time with the likely PoPs spreading through
Thursday night and trail them off through Friday night. Snow amounts
dont appears significant at this time, perhaps another 1 to 3 inch
type event.

The deterministic models diverge then into the weekend. Both models
drive more short wave energy northeast over the central CONUS with
cyclogenesis over the mid Mississippi River valley region Saturday.
It appears the anomalous Bermuda Ridge will flatten some as this
energy moves east and the western CONUS trough reloads. This will
mean at least a chance of precipitation moving through the area
Saturday/Saturday night.

Temperatures will remain below normal through much of the week but
should trend closer to normal again by late in the week and into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Light snow is expected to develop across central MN overnight
(primarily affecting KAXN and possibly KSTC prior to daybreak),
and become more widespread across the area on Monday morning. The
freezing drizzle/rain threat still looks to be south of the TAF
sites, with KMKT and KEAU on the edge. Expect ceilings to continue
degrading to MVFR overnight, with prevalent MVFR on Monday. There
looks to be a brief break in the precip at most sites Monday
evening, another round developing early in the next period (06z
Tuesday). Will need to re-evaluate the freezing precip again with
this round, as some models are indicating a slight northward shift
of the threat, possibly as far north as KMSP. Northerly winds
tonight become more northeasterly for Monday, with gusts to
between 20 and 25 knots.

KMSP...
15Z still looks to be the most likely time for snow onset at KMSP.
Still expect the freezing rain to stay south and east of the site
this period. Northerly winds shift to the northeast and become
gusty tomorrow during the daytime hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...MVFR/-SN. Winds N15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds NW becoming SW 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds S 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 190619
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1219 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Very impressive low amplitude wave and associated intense frontal
circulation continues to result in intense snowfall rates across
much of the Minnesota Arrowhead late this afternoon. This is one
of the more impressive FGEN events in recent memory, with snowfall
rates of 2-3 inches per hour common across the north shore areas
of Lake Superior for the past 3-6 hours. One location hear Tofte
has received over a foot of new snow in only the past 6 hours
since it started around 10 AM.

While intense snowfall rates will persist across Lake and Cook
Counties into this evening, the primary wave responsible for all
of the snow will move into Ontario by mid evening, which should
signal a cessation of the really strong snow rates by 7-8 PM -
even over the Arrowhead - as the back edge of the main forcing
area and radar echoes appears to lie from roughly Hibbing to
Brainerd as of 4 PM per KDLH radar. However, we have extended the
warning for Lake/Cook Counties through 9 PM in anticipation of
snow lasting well into the evening. All other winter headlines
will be allowed to expire at 6 PM as scheduled as snow should have
tapered off to flurries by that time in most areas west/south of
the Arrowhead.

Some scattered light snow/flurries and perhaps some mixed precip
may continue during the overnight hours along the primary frontal
boundary across the south/east portions of the CWA as cold air
deepens and weak low level ascent continues in the vicinity of the
front. However, the next organized period of precip should begin
in earnest Monday afternoon as the next disturbance moves
northeastward along the front and spreads another prolonged
period of ascent across the area. We held off on issuing any
advisories or watch at this point simply to simplify the
messaging. We wanted to postpone issuing any new headlines until
after the major ongoing snow event was completed. With that said,
it seems likely that we will need additional headlines of some
kind (likely advisories) for the Monday-Tuesday time frame with
additional accumulating snow and mixed precip over the far
southeast part of the Duluth CWA. Either the evening shift or the
night shift tonight can address that after the current heavy snow
abates later this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 412 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Fairly complex scenario at the beginning of the extended with a
quasi-stationary front draped from the Central Great Lakes,
southwest to the Central Plains Monday evening. While this is going
on, a positively tilted longwave trough extends to the
southwestern United States. The trough will lift northeastward
into the Intermountain West and Central Plains by Tuesday evening.
An embedded shortwave will lift into the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through Tuesday. At the surface along the stationary
front a broad area of low pressure will develop somewhere in the
Mid to Upper Mississippi River Valley, while an inverted trough
extends northwest into Wisconsin and Minnesota. Confidence is
still lower than normal for this time range for QPF and snowfall
amounts, as there still is a lot of spread between guidance.
Suspect the difference is largely due to thunderstorm development
across the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley. This will
impact the strength, location, and track of the developing low,
which in turn will impact the intensity of the inverted trough.

As of right now there are two camps, the GFS/GEM which have a
weaker low - in turn a weaker inverted trough and tighter
precipitation gradient. The other camp is the ECWMF/NAM which have
a deeper low - which ultimately results in a broader
precipitation field and more precipitation across the region.
Stuck with a compromise between solutions at this point in time
due to the differences, but if things trend toward the ECMWF/NAM
will need to increase precipitation totals. Warmer air aloft will
advect into portions of northwest Wisconsin, which will bring a
period of a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow across southeast
portions of northwest Wisconsin. The combination of accumulating
snow and ice accumulation from Monday evening through Tuesday will
likely result in a Winter Weather Advisory being needed for
portions of the CWA, however due to Winter Weather concerns in the
short term, have held off from issuing a Winter Weather Advisory
for the next system. The latest snowfall accumulations from Monday
through Tuesday generally range from 3 to 6 inches across the
region.

Low pressure will lift northeastward from the Central Great Lakes
Tuesday evening into Ontario by early Wednesday morning. Behind this
system, high pressure will build into the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on Wednesday through Thursday. This will bring partly to
mostly sunny skies with warming temperatures as 850 hPa
westerly/southwesterly flow advects in warmer air. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the upper teens and low 20s. Highs on Thursday
will be in the mid to upper 20s. After Thursday confidence in the
forecast is low as guidance splits on the timing, strength and
evolution of a trough digging into the Pacific
Northwest/Intermountain West. Forecast high temperatures for Friday
through the weekend are in the upper 20s and low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

A cold front draped from around the Twin Cities northeast across
northern Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan is sagging slowly
southeast across Wisconsin tonight. Behind the front there is a
band if light snow and IFR/MVFR ceilings with mainly MVFR
visibilities that is affecting mainly KHYR, with some MVFR
ceilings also into KBRD, with VFR for KDLH, KHIB and KINL.
Conditions to remain very similar through approximately 18z, after
which the next wave of light snow moves northeast out of southern
Minnesota. Expect conditions to gradually deteriorate to MVFR,
perhaps to IFR after 18z as the snow moves in. Have kept to MVFR
for now as exact conditions somewhat uncertain at this point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   7  16   7  18 /  80  60  80  70
INL  -8  11  -3  13 /   0  10  50  60
BRD   6  16   6  17 /  30  60  80  60
HYR  14  18  11  22 /  60  70  70  60
ASX  13  17  12  20 /  90  70  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 190445
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

A very messy short term period is in store as the cold front
working into southwest MN slides east across the area. Aloft, a
broad positively tilted long wave trough will remain across the
area. We`ll see several weak waves ripple across this strong
thermal gradient, resulting several pulses of precipitation
through Tuesday.

Biggest change for the short term is the wave coming up for Monday
is coming in slower and with a little less QPF with the 18.12
model runs as the better moisture is getting shifted off to the
east. In fact, there are some CAMs that are almost completely dry
for the MPX area through Monday, so this is still somewhat of a
low confidence forecast through the short term. For P-type, the
trick is figuring out whether ice crystals will be present, which
means it`s a snow or freezing rain situation. Though we look to
have issues the whole period with RH in the -12C to -18C dendritic
growth zone, as the boundary layer cools with continued CAA
through the period, we see the top of the boundary layer cool into
the -10c to -13c range, which should be cold enough to get
crystals going, just fine needles as opposed to nice fluffy
dendrites. Because of the cooling boundary layer, we did go with a
snowier solution than the previous forecast, mainly by going with
higher cloud ice probabilities farther to the southeast. The
snowier solution along with the overall lower QPF resulted in
lower ice accumulations in general. We now keep ice accumulations
out of the Twin Cities (mostly snow), with the highest amounts
down from Albert Lea up toward Eau Claire, though those have come
down into the 0.1"-0.15" range.

With headlines already out, we made no changes to the existing
headlines, with the new winter weather advisory a problem for the
beginning of the long term portion of the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Picking up where the short term forecast left off, the next wave in
our positively tilted trough will be moving through Monday night
into Tuesday morning. We have seen in upward trend in the snow
potential with this wave, in particular for western into central
MN. We still have 3" to 5" of snow forecast in this region, but
most of this will fall between 6z and 18z Tuesday. From the
messaging standpoint, it`s been difficult trying to explain the
highest snow totals falling where there was no advisory and with a
concentrated window for heavier snow Monday night into Tuesday
morning, we went ahead and filled in the rest of the MPX coverage
area in a winter weather advisory, though we don`t start this new
segment until Monday evening.

High pressure coming in Wednesday still looks to finally drive the
thermal gradient southeast of our area Tuesday afternoon, which
will finally cut the precip off. We`ll see below normal
temperatures thanks to the high pressure with lows
Wednesday/Thursday mornings and highs on Wednesday. This cold snap
will end quickly though, with return flow setting up Thursday
that will send highs back to near normal by Thursday afternoon.

Also with that return flow comes our next chance for precip. The
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian look similar with bringing another shield of
isentropic lift and snow across much of the area, but we see
significant timing difference still. The ECMWF continues to be the
fastest, brining it through Thursday night/Friday morning, with
the GFS/Canadian trailing 12 hours behind. Given the spread,
stayed with the blended forecast, which has precip chances spread
out pretty good between Thursday night and Friday, but this will
get narrowed down as models start narrowing in on a time frame
this will occur.

For next weekend, we will maintain the general idea of a through
west/ridge east, but with less amplification. This means a more
zonal flow and temperatures getting back a little above normal as
the colder air remains , with highs expected back in the 30s. more
over the northern Rockies. Beside milder, it`s looking dry as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Light snow is expected to develop across central MN overnight
(primarily affecting KAXN and possibly KSTC prior to daybreak),
and become more widespread across the area on Monday morning. The
freezing drizzle/rain threat still looks to be south of the TAF
sites, with KMKT and KEAU on the edge. Expect ceilings to continue
degrading to MVFR overnight, with prevalent MVFR on Monday. There
looks to be a brief break in the precip at most sites Monday
evening, another round developing early in the next period (06z
Tuesday). Will need to re-evaluate the freezing precip again with
this round, as some models are indicating a slight northward shift
of the threat, possibly as far north as KMSP. Northerly winds
tonight become more northeasterly for Monday, with gusts to
between 20 and 25 knots.

KMSP...
15Z still looks to be the most likely time for snow onset at KMSP.
Still expect the freezing rain to stay south and east of the site
this period. Northerly winds shift to the northeast and become
gusty tomorrow during the daytime hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...MVFR/-SN. Winds N15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds NW becoming SW 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ053-
     060>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS




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