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000
FXUS63 KDLH 290533
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The northland will be under the influence of high pressure at the
surface and aloft while a deep long wave trough affects the
southern portion of MN and WI. The surface low, which has been
taking shape today in the southwest U. S. will move northeast into
the Central Plains on Wednesday. Moisture streaming northward
ahead of this low will provide more clouds to the northland which
will in cooler temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The long term forecast is relatively quiet. Near-zonal flow will
continue for much of the period, maintain near to above normal
temperatures with daytime highs generally in the 40s and 50s. High
pressure will promote fairly clear skies Thursday and Friday, but a
passing shortwave trough could bring some light precipitation (rain
and snow) Saturday. The GFS is much more aggressive with this trough
and precipitation compared to the mostly dry European and Canadian
models, so not too confident if the forecast area will get
precipitation. Southerly flow will develop Sunday and provide a
warmer and dry day. The European and GFS suggest there could be a
period of wetter weather just after this period, around Monday night
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the TAF period,
except for stratus developing tonight possibly impacting DLH towards
Wednesday morning. Late this evening "fog channel" satellite imagery
depicted an area of stratus developing along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior at the head of the lake. With low level winds
expected to shift from northeast to more easterly late tonight into
Wednesday morning, it is possible this stratus makes its way into
Duluth and brings as low as IFR ceilings to DLH. Any stratus may
stick around well into Wednesday morning given the continued east-
southeast winds towards Wednesday afternoon, but for this forecast
decided to transition to a scattered MVFR ceiling to indicate the
more likely scenario that, if stratus does impact DLH, it will not
be especially thick and should break up towards noon despite the
increasing high clouds aloft.

At DLH, some MVFR stratus is possible late tonight into Wednesday
morning, though this stratus will likely be more transient in
nature, with the most likely time for stratus in the hours around
and after dawn.

Elsewhere, VFR with increasing high clouds through the TAF
period. East to southeast winds Wednesday, generally light at 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  45  28  44 /   0   0  10   0
INL  31  51  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  32  52  31  53 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  31  51  30  51 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  31  46  28  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...JJM



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000
FXUS63 KMPX 290348
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1048 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A strong closed southern stream trough navigates the
Central/Southern Plains over the next 24 hours. The attendant
severe weather threat will stay well to the south, but the
northern periphery of the rain shield will work as far north as
southern MN and central WI on Wednesday afternoon. The hi-res
models have trended a bit slower, and for the most part do not
bring precip to the I-90 corridor until around 21z. By 00z
Thursday, precip looks to reach a Redwood Falls, to southern Twin
Cities, to Eau Claire line.

In the meantime, we could see patchy fog development again
tonight, especially over west central WI where winds are lighter
and cloud cover will be lesser. Do not expect as many reports of
dense fog given the ridge axis has shifted east, but 1-3sm
visibilities appear possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period across
southern Minnesota as isentropic upglide brings the precip shield as
far north as the southern Twin Cities metro. Profiles cool just
enough as Thursday morning progresses to introduce a rain/snow mix
across west-central WI & the I-90 corridor in far-southern MN,
however no snowfall accumulation is expected. Heaviest QPF amounts
of around 0.25" are expected across far-southern MN by the time
precip moves out early Thursday afternoon, with no more than a few
hundredths for points north.

Split flow across the CONUS will continue to dominate through the
weekend and into next week, with the area stuck in the benign area
between active patterns to our north & south. Upper-level ridging
returns Thursday evening leading to a quiet Friday across the state.
Temperatures through Friday will remain above normal, which should
allow us to just barely eek out our 19th month in a row of above
normal temperatures. The weekend shows glancing blows from systems
in the split flow, with a potent shortwave moving across the US-
Canadian border Saturday potentially leading to some light rain for
the far NW CWA. On Sunday, yet another developing low-pressure
across the southern plains may lead to a chance of light rain across
the I-90 corridor. There`s still a little uncertainty on just how
much moisture will be available for each system but regardless, it
should be a pleasant Spring weekend for much of the CWA.

Another system looks likely to impact the area towards mid-week, but
models are still in disagreement with timing & precipitation
amounts. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

An organized low pressure system moving out of the OK/TX panhandle
region into the mid-Mississippi River Valley region through
tomorrow will drag a weak surface trough far north enough by late
tomorrow to potentially produce a few light rain showers in
southern MN into southwestern WI late tomorrow into tomorrow
evening. Therefore, VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow
afternoon with gradually lowering ceilings as the day progresses,
mainly for eastern/southern MN into western WI. Chances are
growing for MVFR ceilings for KMPS eastward, particularly later
tomorrow evening. Light/variable winds overnight will become
easterly tomorrow in the 5-10 knot range.

KMSP...High confidence in VFR through tomorrow afternoon then, as
the trough approaches from the southwest, there is a growing
chance of MVFR ceilings tomorrow evening (potentially during or
just after the evening push). A few light rain showers are
possible but nothing that is expected to drop visibility below 6SM
at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282346
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
646 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The northland will be under the influence of high pressure at the
surface and aloft while a deep long wave trough affects the
southern portion of MN and WI. The surface low, which has been
taking shape today in the southwest U. S. will move northeast into
the Central Plains on Wednesday. Moisture streaming northward
ahead of this low will provide more clouds to the northland which
will in cooler temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The long term forecast is relatively quiet. Near-zonal flow will
continue for much of the period, maintain near to above normal
temperatures with daytime highs generally in the 40s and 50s. High
pressure will promote fairly clear skies Thursday and Friday, but a
passing shortwave trough could bring some light precipitation (rain
and snow) Saturday. The GFS is much more aggressive with this trough
and precipitation compared to the mostly dry European and Canadian
models, so not too confident if the forecast area will get
precipitation. Southerly flow will develop Sunday and provide a
warmer and dry day. The European and GFS suggest there could be a
period of wetter weather just after this period, around Monday night
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high-
level clouds gradually increase and a light east-southeast wind
develops through Wednesday. MVFR stratus is possible at HYR and
DLH and have hinted towards this possibility in the latest
TAFs. Short-range guidance is not very bullish on this
possibility, but continued previous forecast trend of including
scattered to at times broken MVFR deck late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Any stratus that develops may stick around as increasing
high-level clouds would limit solar heating potential on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  45  28  44 /   0  10  10   0
INL  29  51  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  30  51  30  51 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  29  46  28  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 282310 CCA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected Aviation Section
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A strong closed southern stream trough navigates the
Central/Southern Plains over the next 24 hours. The attendant
severe weather threat will stay well to the south, but the
northern periphery of the rain shield will work as far north as
southern MN and central WI on Wednesday afternoon. The hi-res
models have trended a bit slower, and for the most part do not
bring precip to the I-90 corridor until around 21z. By 00z
Thursday, precip looks to reach a Redwood Falls, to southern Twin
Cities, to Eau Claire line.

In the meantime, we could see patchy fog development again
tonight, especially over west central WI where winds are lighter
and cloud cover will be lesser. Do not expect as many reports of
dense fog given the ridge axis has shifted east, but 1-3sm
visibilities appear possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period across
southern Minnesota as isentropic upglide brings the precip shield as
far north as the southern Twin Cities metro. Profiles cool just
enough as Thursday morning progresses to introduce a rain/snow mix
across west-central WI & the I-90 corridor in far-southern MN,
however no snowfall accumulation is expected. Heaviest QPF amounts
of around 0.25" are expected across far-southern MN by the time
precip moves out early Thursday afternoon, with no more than a few
hundredths for points north.

Split flow across the CONUS will continue to dominate through the
weekend and into next week, with the area stuck in the benign area
between active patterns to our north & south. Upper-level ridging
returns Thursday evening leading to a quiet Friday across the state.
Temperatures through Friday will remain above normal, which should
allow us to just barely eek out our 19th month in a row of above
normal temperatures. The weekend shows glancing blows from systems
in the split flow, with a potent shortwave moving across the US-
Canadian border Saturday potentially leading to some light rain for
the far NW CWA. On Sunday, yet another developing low-pressure
across the southern plains may lead to a chance of light rain across
the I-90 corridor. There`s still a little uncertainty on just how
much moisture will be available for each system but regardless, it
should be a pleasant Spring weekend for much of the CWA.

Another system looks likely to impact the area towards mid-week, but
models are still in disagreement with timing & precipitation
amounts. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

An organized low pressure system moving out of the OK/TX panhandle
region into the mid-Mississippi River Valley region through
tomorrow will drag a weak surface trough far north enough by late
tomorrow to potentially produce a few light rain showers in
southern MN into southwestern WI late tomorrow into tomorrow
evening. Much, if not all, of this activity will occur beyond this
24-hour period so have only mentioned precipitation in the last
6-hours of MSP. Therefore, VFR conditions will prevail through
tomorrow afternoon with gradually lowering ceilings as the day
progresses, mainly for eastern/southern MN into western WI.
Light/variable winds overnight will become easterly tomorrow in
the 5-10 knot range.

KMSP...High confidence in VFR through tomorrow afternoon then, as
the trough approaches from the southwest, there is a growing
chance of MVFR ceilings tomorrow evening (potentially during or
just after the evening push). A few light rain showers are
possible but nothing that is expected to drop visibility below 6SM
at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 282305
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A strong closed southern stream trough navigates the
Central/Southern Plains over the next 24 hours. The attendant
severe weather threat will stay well to the south, but the
northern periphery of the rain shield will work as far north as
southern MN and central WI on Wednesday afternoon. The hi-res
models have trended a bit slower, and for the most part do not
bring precip to the I-90 corridor until around 21z. By 00z
Thursday, precip looks to reach a Redwood Falls, to southern Twin
Cities, to Eau Claire line.

In the meantime, we could see patchy fog development again
tonight, especially over west central WI where winds are lighter
and cloud cover will be lesser. Do not expect as many reports of
dense fog given the ridge axis has shifted east, but 1-3sm
visibilities appear possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period across
southern Minnesota as isentropic upglide brings the precip shield as
far north as the southern Twin Cities metro. Profiles cool just
enough as Thursday morning progresses to introduce a rain/snow mix
across west-central WI & the I-90 corridor in far-southern MN,
however no snowfall accumulation is expected. Heaviest QPF amounts
of around 0.25" are expected across far-southern MN by the time
precip moves out early Thursday afternoon, with no more than a few
hundredths for points north.

Split flow across the CONUS will continue to dominate through the
weekend and into next week, with the area stuck in the benign area
between active patterns to our north & south. Upper-level ridging
returns Thursday evening leading to a quiet Friday across the state.
Temperatures through Friday will remain above normal, which should
allow us to just barely eek out our 19th month in a row of above
normal temperatures. The weekend shows glancing blows from systems
in the split flow, with a potent shortwave moving across the US-
Canadian border Saturday potentially leading to some light rain for
the far NW CWA. On Sunday, yet another developing low-pressure
across the southern plains may lead to a chance of light rain across
the I-90 corridor. There`s still a little uncertainty on just how
much moisture will be available for each system but regardless, it
should be a pleasant Spring weekend for much of the CWA.

Another system looks likely to impact the area towards mid-week, but
models are still in disagreement with timing & precipitation
amounts. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

An organized low pressure system moving out of the OK/TX panhandle
region into the mid-Mississippi River Valley region through
tomorrow will drag a weak surface trough far north enough by late
tomorrow to potentially produce a few light rain showers in
southern MN into southwestern WI late tomorrow into tomorrow
evening. Much, if not all, of this activity will occur beyond this
24-hour period so have only mentioned precipitation in the last
6-hours of MSP. Therefore, VFR conditions will prevail through
tomorrow afternoon with gradually lowering ceilings as the day
progresses, mainly for eastern/southern MN into western WI.
Light/variable winds overnight will become easterly tomorrow in
the 5-10 knot range.

KMSP...High confidence in VFR through tomorrow afternoon then, as
the trough approaches from the southeast, there is a growing
chance of MVFR ceilings tomorrow evening (potentially during or
just after the evening push). A few light rain showers are
possible but nothing that is expected to drop visibility below 6SM
at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 282042
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A strong closed southern stream trough navigates the
Central/Southern Plains over the next 24 hours. The attendant
severe weather threat will stay well to the south, but the
northern periphery of the rain shield will work as far north as
southern MN and central WI on Wednesday afternoon. The hi-res
models have trended a bit slower, and for the most part do not
bring precip to the I-90 corridor until around 21z. By 00z
Thursday, precip looks to reach a Redwood Falls, to southern Twin
Cities, to Eau Claire line.

In the meantime, we could see patchy fog development again
tonight, especially over west central WI where winds are lighter
and cloud cover will be lesser. Do not expect as many reports of
dense fog given the ridge axis has shifted east, but 1-3sm
visibilities appear possible.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period across
southern Minnesota as isentropic upglide brings the precip shield as
far north as the southern Twin Cities metro. Profiles cool just
enough as Thursday morning progresses to introduce a rain/snow mix
across west-central WI & the I-90 corridor in far-southern MN,
however no snowfall accumulation is expected. Heaviest QPF amounts
of around 0.25" are expected across far-southern MN by the time
precip moves out early Thursday afternoon, with no more than a few
hundredths for points north.

Split flow across the CONUS will continue to dominate through the
weekend and into next week, with the area stuck in the benign area
between active patterns to our north & south. Upper-level ridging
returns Thursday evening leading to a quiet Friday across the state.
Temperatures through Friday will remain above normal, which should
allow us to just barely eek out our 19th month in a row of above
normal temperatures. The weekend shows glancing blows from systems
in the split flow, with a potent shortwave moving across the US-
Canadian border Saturday potentially leading to some light rain for
the far NW CWA. On Sunday, yet another developing low-pressure
across the southern plains may lead to a chance of light rain across
the I-90 corridor. There`s still a little uncertainty on just how
much moisture will be available for each system but regardless, it
should be a pleasant Spring weekend for much of the CWA.

Another system looks likely to impact the area towards mid-week, but
models are still in disagreement with timing & precipitation
amounts. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Light winds and only a few high clouds will be found through
tonight. Therefore have high confidence in VFR through then, with
the exception of the potential for patchy fog redevelopment near
KRNH and KEAU toward daybreak Wednesday. Otherwise, will see and
increase/thickening of mid level clouds throughout Wednesday, with
-RA inching up toward sites from southern MN during the afternoon
hours. Winds will be east/southeast through the period at speeds
of 4-8kts.

KMSP...
High confidence in VFR through the period with an increase in
mid/high clouds on Wednesday. Rain chances hold off until after
00z Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed ngt...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 8-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282035
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
335 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The northland will be under the influence of high pressure at the
surface and aloft while a deep long wave trough affects the
southern portion of MN and WI. The surface low, which has been
taking shape today in the southwest U. S. will move northeast into
the Central Plains on Wednesday. Moisture streaming northward
ahead of this low will provide more clouds to the northland which
will in cooler temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The long term forecast is relatively quiet. Near-zonal flow will
continue for much of the period, maintain near to above normal
temperatures with daytime highs generally in the 40s and 50s. High
pressure will promote fairly clear skies Thursday and Friday, but a
passing shortwave trough could bring some light precipitation (rain
and snow) Saturday. The GFS is much more aggressive with this trough
and precipitation compared to the mostly dry European and Canadian
models, so not too confident if the forecast area will get
precipitation. Southerly flow will develop Sunday and provide a
warmer and dry day. The European and GFS suggest there could be a
period of wetter weather just after this period, around Monday night
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

High pressure will continue to promote clear skies and light wind
speeds today. Light easterly flow will develop late today and
tonight and there are some model indications there could be some
cloud cover in the 1 to 3 kft range late tonight and early
Wednesday. The RAP, NAM, and GFS models are indicating some
saturation within that layer late tonight. The KHYR has the best
chance of seeing MVFR ceilings, and my confidence is high enough
to include it within the latest forecast. The KDLH area could get
it, too, but not as confident to forecast it yet.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  45  28  44 /   0  10  10   0
INL  29  51  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  30  51  30  51 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  29  46  28  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281732
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Updated for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.



UPDATE Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Update to boost afternoon temps about 5 degrees in most areas.
Looks like east winds will keep things cooler near the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dry and quiet conditions expected through the short term.

A weak shortwave trough associated with an area of cyclonic
vorticity advection was located over eastern North Dakota and
southeast Manitoba early this morning. The combination of mid-
level height falls ahead of and weak warm advection behind the
trough was supporting some mid-level stratus and an area of virga
over northwestern and portions of north-central Minnesota. At 3 AM
temperatures were in the middle 20s in northeast Minnesota and
inland portions of northwest Wisconsin. to the upper 30s at
Birchdale and International Falls.

The stratus is expected to spread eastward across northeast
Minnesota this morning. The 28.00Z INL sounding indicated a very
dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, so do not expect any of the
precipitation aloft to reach the ground today. In areas where
skies remain clear, patchy fog is expected before sunrise. Think
temperatures will continue to cool into the low 20s northeast and
for inland portions of northwest Wisconsin, and the middle to
upper 30s under the stratus over the northwest. Highs today will
trend a little cooler in the north due to the cloud cover, and a
touch warmer south. Temperatures should top out in the middle 40s
northeast to around 60 degrees in central Minnesota. Areas along
the Lake Superior shore may see a lake breeze develop this
afternoon, which would limit temperatures to the low 40s within a
few miles of the lake.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. Clouds
will spread eastward across the Northland with the trough.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the best forcing for
ascent both north and south of the forecast area, so kept
Wednesday dry as well. Winds near the surface and aloft will veer
more southerly during the period. Clouds will arrive in our
western zones overnight, which should keep lows a little warmer.
Still trended lows a few degrees cooler than the consensus blends
in the west, and around 5 degrees cooler for inland portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The increasing cloud cover will also keep
temperatures on Wednesday a little cooler. Think the consensus
blend was too cool, however, and trended temperatures toward the
warmer guidance members, especially in northeast Minnesota and the
eastern portions of our Wisconsin zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Model differences begin immediately at the start of the long
term. Models disagree on the evolution/depth of a short wave
trough in the northern stream and the amount of phasing with the
cut off low in the southern stream. The GFS is weaker with the
shortwave trough/phasing with the southern stream. The ECMWF has a
sharper trough and better phasing with the southern stream. The
GEM is similar to the GFS. Regardless, surface ridging covers the
forecast area Wednesday evening and have a dry forecast. Late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the ECMWF/GFS bring QPF
to the southeast corner of the area and adjusted POPs as the
system moves nearby. Thursday afternoon through Friday finds the
ridging prevailing over the region as the aforementioned system
has departed. Friday night and Saturday finds a potent shortwave
moving across the forecast area. It`s associated surface
reflection moves over northern Minnesota. This will bring a
rain/snow mix to the international border area Friday night, then
change to all rain on Saturday. The GFS is the fastest at moving
this feature off to the east, the ECMWF/GEM are slower and keep
some QPF around through Saturday night. Used a blend leaning more
heavily on the GFS solution and have a dry forecast Saturday
night. Upper level and surface ridging return Sunday while the GEM
has an area of low pressure moving along the international border
area. The GFS also has this feature, but is up to 12 hours
slower. Used a blend through Monday to account for a growing
divergence amongst the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

High pressure will continue to promote clear skies and light wind
speeds today. Light easterly flow will develop late today and
tonight and there are some model indications there could be some
cloud cover in the 1 to 3 kft range late tonight and early
Wednesday. The RAP, NAM, and GFS models are indicating some
saturation within that layer late tonight. The KHYR has the best
chance of seeing MVFR ceilings, and my confidence is high enough
to include it within the latest forecast. The KDLH area could get
it, too, but not as confident to forecast it yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  28  45  29 /   0   0  10  10
INL  53  29  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  60  30  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  29  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  50  25  46  28 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF/Huyck
AVIATION...Grochocinski




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281732
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Updated for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.



UPDATE Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Update to boost afternoon temps about 5 degrees in most areas.
Looks like east winds will keep things cooler near the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dry and quiet conditions expected through the short term.

A weak shortwave trough associated with an area of cyclonic
vorticity advection was located over eastern North Dakota and
southeast Manitoba early this morning. The combination of mid-
level height falls ahead of and weak warm advection behind the
trough was supporting some mid-level stratus and an area of virga
over northwestern and portions of north-central Minnesota. At 3 AM
temperatures were in the middle 20s in northeast Minnesota and
inland portions of northwest Wisconsin. to the upper 30s at
Birchdale and International Falls.

The stratus is expected to spread eastward across northeast
Minnesota this morning. The 28.00Z INL sounding indicated a very
dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, so do not expect any of the
precipitation aloft to reach the ground today. In areas where
skies remain clear, patchy fog is expected before sunrise. Think
temperatures will continue to cool into the low 20s northeast and
for inland portions of northwest Wisconsin, and the middle to
upper 30s under the stratus over the northwest. Highs today will
trend a little cooler in the north due to the cloud cover, and a
touch warmer south. Temperatures should top out in the middle 40s
northeast to around 60 degrees in central Minnesota. Areas along
the Lake Superior shore may see a lake breeze develop this
afternoon, which would limit temperatures to the low 40s within a
few miles of the lake.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. Clouds
will spread eastward across the Northland with the trough.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the best forcing for
ascent both north and south of the forecast area, so kept
Wednesday dry as well. Winds near the surface and aloft will veer
more southerly during the period. Clouds will arrive in our
western zones overnight, which should keep lows a little warmer.
Still trended lows a few degrees cooler than the consensus blends
in the west, and around 5 degrees cooler for inland portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The increasing cloud cover will also keep
temperatures on Wednesday a little cooler. Think the consensus
blend was too cool, however, and trended temperatures toward the
warmer guidance members, especially in northeast Minnesota and the
eastern portions of our Wisconsin zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Model differences begin immediately at the start of the long
term. Models disagree on the evolution/depth of a short wave
trough in the northern stream and the amount of phasing with the
cut off low in the southern stream. The GFS is weaker with the
shortwave trough/phasing with the southern stream. The ECMWF has a
sharper trough and better phasing with the southern stream. The
GEM is similar to the GFS. Regardless, surface ridging covers the
forecast area Wednesday evening and have a dry forecast. Late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the ECMWF/GFS bring QPF
to the southeast corner of the area and adjusted POPs as the
system moves nearby. Thursday afternoon through Friday finds the
ridging prevailing over the region as the aforementioned system
has departed. Friday night and Saturday finds a potent shortwave
moving across the forecast area. It`s associated surface
reflection moves over northern Minnesota. This will bring a
rain/snow mix to the international border area Friday night, then
change to all rain on Saturday. The GFS is the fastest at moving
this feature off to the east, the ECMWF/GEM are slower and keep
some QPF around through Saturday night. Used a blend leaning more
heavily on the GFS solution and have a dry forecast Saturday
night. Upper level and surface ridging return Sunday while the GEM
has an area of low pressure moving along the international border
area. The GFS also has this feature, but is up to 12 hours
slower. Used a blend through Monday to account for a growing
divergence amongst the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

High pressure will continue to promote clear skies and light wind
speeds today. Light easterly flow will develop late today and
tonight and there are some model indications there could be some
cloud cover in the 1 to 3 kft range late tonight and early
Wednesday. The RAP, NAM, and GFS models are indicating some
saturation within that layer late tonight. The KHYR has the best
chance of seeing MVFR ceilings, and my confidence is high enough
to include it within the latest forecast. The KDLH area could get
it, too, but not as confident to forecast it yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  28  45  29 /   0   0  10  10
INL  53  29  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  60  30  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  29  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  50  25  46  28 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF/Huyck
AVIATION...Grochocinski




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281724 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Update to boost afternoon temps about 5 degrees in most areas.
Looks like east winds will keep things cooler near the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dry and quiet conditions expected through the short term.

A weak shortwave trough associated with an area of cyclonic
vorticity advection was located over eastern North Dakota and
southeast Manitoba early this morning. The combination of mid-
level height falls ahead of and weak warm advection behind the
trough was supporting some mid-level stratus and an area of virga
over northwestern and portions of north-central Minnesota. At 3 AM
temperatures were in the middle 20s in northeast Minnesota and
inland portions of northwest Wisconsin. to the upper 30s at
Birchdale and International Falls.

The stratus is expected to spread eastward across northeast
Minnesota this morning. The 28.00Z INL sounding indicated a very
dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, so do not expect any of the
precipitation aloft to reach the ground today. In areas where
skies remain clear, patchy fog is expected before sunrise. Think
temperatures will continue to cool into the low 20s northeast and
for inland portions of northwest Wisconsin, and the middle to
upper 30s under the stratus over the northwest. Highs today will
trend a little cooler in the north due to the cloud cover, and a
touch warmer south. Temperatures should top out in the middle 40s
northeast to around 60 degrees in central Minnesota. Areas along
the Lake Superior shore may see a lake breeze develop this
afternoon, which would limit temperatures to the low 40s within a
few miles of the lake.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. Clouds
will spread eastward across the Northland with the trough.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the best forcing for
ascent both north and south of the forecast area, so kept
Wednesday dry as well. Winds near the surface and aloft will veer
more southerly during the period. Clouds will arrive in our
western zones overnight, which should keep lows a little warmer.
Still trended lows a few degrees cooler than the consensus blends
in the west, and around 5 degrees cooler for inland portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The increasing cloud cover will also keep
temperatures on Wednesday a little cooler. Think the consensus
blend was too cool, however, and trended temperatures toward the
warmer guidance members, especially in northeast Minnesota and the
eastern portions of our Wisconsin zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Model differences begin immediately at the start of the long
term. Models disagree on the evolution/depth of a short wave
trough in the northern stream and the amount of phasing with the
cut off low in the southern stream. The GFS is weaker with the
shortwave trough/phasing with the southern stream. The ECMWF has a
sharper trough and better phasing with the southern stream. The
GEM is similar to the GFS. Regardless, surface ridging covers the
forecast area Wednesday evening and have a dry forecast. Late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the ECMWF/GFS bring QPF
to the southeast corner of the area and adjusted POPs as the
system moves nearby. Thursday afternoon through Friday finds the
ridging prevailing over the region as the aforementioned system
has departed. Friday night and Saturday finds a potent shortwave
moving across the forecast area. It`s associated surface
reflection moves over northern Minnesota. This will bring a
rain/snow mix to the international border area Friday night, then
change to all rain on Saturday. The GFS is the fastest at moving
this feature off to the east, the ECMWF/GEM are slower and keep
some QPF around through Saturday night. Used a blend leaning more
heavily on the GFS solution and have a dry forecast Saturday
night. Upper level and surface ridging return Sunday while the GEM
has an area of low pressure moving along the international border
area. The GFS also has this feature, but is up to 12 hours
slower. Used a blend through Monday to account for a growing
divergence amongst the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR through the forecast with high pressure nearby. Mid and high
clouds early will give way to just high clouds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  28  45  29 /   0   0  10  10
INL  53  29  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  60  30  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  29  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  50  25  46  28 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF/Huyck
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281640
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...For 18z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

There are three concerns for the short term. The first is
additional fog development early this morning, high temperatures
today and the chance of rain late tonight.

A surface ridge stretches north to south along the western spine of
MN early this morning. Widespread dense fog has formed in eastern ND
and is pushing slowly southward into northeast SD. Short term
guidance keeps this just to our west through daybreak and no
headline is expected at this time. Farther east, areas of fog were
common over south central MN on northeast through west central WI.
So far, only isolated spots of dense fog are noted, with one being
at the KEAU airfield, which is typical in this pattern. There has
been an increase in mid level clouds across west central and
southwest MN, ahead of a mid level trough that stretches west to
east across central MN and WI. In addition there are also some high
level clouds streaming across the southern third of MN. Current
thinking is that any dense fog will likely be confined from near
KAEL to KEAU. Will continue to monitor for a dense fog advisory, but
not planning one at this time.

Once the H7 trough moves south of us by mid morning we will be
looking at a good deal of sunshine for the rest of the day. The 925-
850mb column is a degree or two warmer over that on Monday. Hence,
highs should be at or above what we experienced, which got out of
control in the Twin Cities with lower 60s. Mix-down from 850mb
supports 60-65 from the Twin Cities on WNW through KRWF, KBDH and
KAXN. Readings to the east and south are more in the 55 to 60 degree
range. Guidance used to make the thermal gradient sharper included
an equal blend of BC ADJMET, BC GFS and BC CONSRAW.

The surface ridge will move off to the east of the FA early tonight
with increasing SE low level flow. It will be a warmer night with
lows in the upper 30s from the Twin Cities on WNW with 30-35 to the
north, east and south of KMSP. The third in a series of a strong
upper low in the southern stream will advance into the central and
southern Plains overnight. The CAMS keep the leading edge of the
light rain almost entirely out of our FA until after 12z Wednesday.
Therefore, only slight chance pops reach SW Martin county
through 11z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The longer term concern remains the coverage of light rain
spreading over the southern third of Minnesota into west central
WIsconsin Wednesday into Thursday.

The deterministic models have pretty much come to a consensus of
drawing moisture into at least the southern third of Minnesota
during the day Wednesday...and then moving it east as the northern
and southern stream phase enough to generate enough moisture
transport into the region. The 290k isentropic forecast actually
draws lower level saturation central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin Wednesday night and actually drops a couple hundredths
of an inch of liquid in this region. It still remains a question
of how far north and west this will develop...and we did draw PoPs
a bit farther north into east central Minnesota. Temperatures are
forecast to drop off into the mid 30s and thickness and lower
level boundary layer temepratures may get cool enough for at least
a rain/snow mix to the southeast late Wednesday night. Little or
no accumulation is expected however.

Following this system...drier air returns to the region as the
upper flow pattern remains split. Models still draw a waves in the
northern stream across the region during the Saturday/Saturday
night time frame. There is a wide spread in strength and how much
moisture will be available. We retained the small PoP for parts
of the cwa.

Models diverge further into early next week...with an increasing
threat of more widespread precipitation developing into early
next week. There remains a phasing issue with the western conus
trough and its counterpart to the north...so overall timing will
continue to be a problem. Overall...temperatures should remain
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Light winds and only a few high clouds will be found through
tonight. Therefore have high confidence in VFR through then, with
the exception of the potential for patchy fog redevelopment near
KRNH and KEAU toward daybreak Wednesday. Otherwise, will see and
increase/thickening of mid level clouds throughout Wednesday, with
-RA inching up toward sites from southern MN during the afternoon
hours. Winds will be east/southeast through the period at speeds
of 4-8kts.

KMSP...
High confidence in VFR through the period with an increase in
mid/high clouds on Wednesday. Rain chances hold off until after
00z Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed ngt...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 8-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281144
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

There are three concerns for the short term. The first is
additional fog development early this morning, high temperatures
today and the chance of rain late tonight.

A surface ridge stretches north to south along the western spine of
MN early this morning. Widespread dense fog has formed in eastern ND
and is pushing slowly southward into northeast SD. Short term
guidance keeps this just to our west through daybreak and no
headline is expected at this time. Farther east, areas of fog were
common over south central MN on northeast through west central WI.
So far, only isolated spots of dense fog are noted, with one being
at the KEAU airfield, which is typical in this pattern. There has
been an increase in mid level clouds across west central and
southwest MN, ahead of a mid level trough that stretches west to
east across central MN and WI. In addition there are also some high
level clouds streaming across the southern third of MN. Current
thinking is that any dense fog will likely be confined from near
KAEL to KEAU. Will continue to monitor for a dense fog advisory, but
not planning one at this time.

Once the H7 trough moves south of us by mid morning we will be
looking at a good deal of sunshine for the rest of the day. The 925-
850mb column is a degree or two warmer over that on Monday. Hence,
highs should be at or above what we experienced, which got out of
control in the Twin Cities with lower 60s. Mix-down from 850mb
supports 60-65 from the Twin Cities on WNW through KRWF, KBDH and
KAXN. Readings to the east and south are more in the 55 to 60 degree
range. Guidance used to make the thermal gradient sharper included
an equal blend of BC ADJMET, BC GFS and BC CONSRAW.

The surface ridge will move off to the east of the FA early tonight
with increasing SE low level flow. It will be a warmer night with
lows in the upper 30s from the Twin Cities on WNW with 30-35 to the
north, east and south of KMSP. The third in a series of a strong
upper low in the southern stream will advance into the central and
southern Plains overnight. The CAMS keep the leading edge of the
light rain almost entirely out of our FA until after 12z Wednesday.
Therefore, only slight chance pops reach SW Martin county
through 11z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The longer term concern remains the coverage of light rain
spreading over the southern third of Minnesota into west central
WIsconsin Wednesday into Thursday.

The deterministic models have pretty much come to a consensus of
drawing moisture into at least the southern third of Minnesota
during the day Wednesday...and then moving it east as the northern
and southern stream phase enough to generate enough moisture
transport into the region. The 290k isentropic forecast actually
draws lower level saturation central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin Wednesday night and actually drops a couple hundredths
of an inch of liquid in this region. It still remains a question
of how far north and west this will develop...and we did draw PoPs
a bit farther north into east central Minnesota. Temperatures are
forecast to drop off into the mid 30s and thickness and lower
level boundary layer temepratures may get cool enough for at least
a rain/snow mix to the southeast late Wednesday night. Little or
no accumulation is expected however.

Following this system...drier air returns to the region as the
upper flow pattern remains split. Models still draw a waves in the
northern stream across the region during the Saturday/Saturday
night time frame. There is a wide spread in strength and how much
moisture will be available. We retained the small PoP for parts
of the cwa.

Models diverge further into early next week...with an increasing
threat of more widespread precipitation developing into early
next week. There remains a phasing issue with the western conus
trough and its counterpart to the north...so overall timing will
continue to be a problem. Overall...temperatures should remain
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The only concern ahead is the BR/FG for a few more hours this
morning. The worst conditions are at KEAU, although they are
starting to rock back and forth between a 1/4 and 1/2SM.
Otherwise, TEMPO conditions in MVFR BR can be expected up to 15z.
Afterwards, it will be VFR for the duration of the period with
any ceilings AOA 120. Light ENE winds this morning becoming ESE
4-7 knots this afternoon.

KMSP...Airfield will likely see a period of 4-5SM BR between 12z
and 13z. Otherwise VFR with similar winds/ceiling conditions as
those listed above.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed aftn/ngt...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind ESE at 7-10kts. Thu...VFR. Chc
-RA. Wind E at 8-10kts. Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281144
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

There are three concerns for the short term. The first is
additional fog development early this morning, high temperatures
today and the chance of rain late tonight.

A surface ridge stretches north to south along the western spine of
MN early this morning. Widespread dense fog has formed in eastern ND
and is pushing slowly southward into northeast SD. Short term
guidance keeps this just to our west through daybreak and no
headline is expected at this time. Farther east, areas of fog were
common over south central MN on northeast through west central WI.
So far, only isolated spots of dense fog are noted, with one being
at the KEAU airfield, which is typical in this pattern. There has
been an increase in mid level clouds across west central and
southwest MN, ahead of a mid level trough that stretches west to
east across central MN and WI. In addition there are also some high
level clouds streaming across the southern third of MN. Current
thinking is that any dense fog will likely be confined from near
KAEL to KEAU. Will continue to monitor for a dense fog advisory, but
not planning one at this time.

Once the H7 trough moves south of us by mid morning we will be
looking at a good deal of sunshine for the rest of the day. The 925-
850mb column is a degree or two warmer over that on Monday. Hence,
highs should be at or above what we experienced, which got out of
control in the Twin Cities with lower 60s. Mix-down from 850mb
supports 60-65 from the Twin Cities on WNW through KRWF, KBDH and
KAXN. Readings to the east and south are more in the 55 to 60 degree
range. Guidance used to make the thermal gradient sharper included
an equal blend of BC ADJMET, BC GFS and BC CONSRAW.

The surface ridge will move off to the east of the FA early tonight
with increasing SE low level flow. It will be a warmer night with
lows in the upper 30s from the Twin Cities on WNW with 30-35 to the
north, east and south of KMSP. The third in a series of a strong
upper low in the southern stream will advance into the central and
southern Plains overnight. The CAMS keep the leading edge of the
light rain almost entirely out of our FA until after 12z Wednesday.
Therefore, only slight chance pops reach SW Martin county
through 11z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The longer term concern remains the coverage of light rain
spreading over the southern third of Minnesota into west central
WIsconsin Wednesday into Thursday.

The deterministic models have pretty much come to a consensus of
drawing moisture into at least the southern third of Minnesota
during the day Wednesday...and then moving it east as the northern
and southern stream phase enough to generate enough moisture
transport into the region. The 290k isentropic forecast actually
draws lower level saturation central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin Wednesday night and actually drops a couple hundredths
of an inch of liquid in this region. It still remains a question
of how far north and west this will develop...and we did draw PoPs
a bit farther north into east central Minnesota. Temperatures are
forecast to drop off into the mid 30s and thickness and lower
level boundary layer temepratures may get cool enough for at least
a rain/snow mix to the southeast late Wednesday night. Little or
no accumulation is expected however.

Following this system...drier air returns to the region as the
upper flow pattern remains split. Models still draw a waves in the
northern stream across the region during the Saturday/Saturday
night time frame. There is a wide spread in strength and how much
moisture will be available. We retained the small PoP for parts
of the cwa.

Models diverge further into early next week...with an increasing
threat of more widespread precipitation developing into early
next week. There remains a phasing issue with the western conus
trough and its counterpart to the north...so overall timing will
continue to be a problem. Overall...temperatures should remain
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The only concern ahead is the BR/FG for a few more hours this
morning. The worst conditions are at KEAU, although they are
starting to rock back and forth between a 1/4 and 1/2SM.
Otherwise, TEMPO conditions in MVFR BR can be expected up to 15z.
Afterwards, it will be VFR for the duration of the period with
any ceilings AOA 120. Light ENE winds this morning becoming ESE
4-7 knots this afternoon.

KMSP...Airfield will likely see a period of 4-5SM BR between 12z
and 13z. Otherwise VFR with similar winds/ceiling conditions as
those listed above.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed aftn/ngt...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind ESE at 7-10kts. Thu...VFR. Chc
-RA. Wind E at 8-10kts. Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281131
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
631 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dry and quiet conditions expected through the short term.

A weak shortwave trough associated with an area of cyclonic
vorticity advection was located over eastern North Dakota and
southeast Manitoba early this morning. The combination of mid-
level height falls ahead of and weak warm advection behind the
trough was supporting some mid-level stratus and an area of virga
over northwestern and portions of north-central Minnesota. At 3 AM
temperatures were in the middle 20s in northeast Minnesota and
inland portions of northwest Wisconsin. to the upper 30s at
Birchdale and International Falls.

The stratus is expected to spread eastward across northeast
Minnesota this morning. The 28.00Z INL sounding indicated a very
dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, so do not expect any of the
precipitation aloft to reach the ground today. In areas where
skies remain clear, patchy fog is expected before sunrise. Think
temperatures will continue to cool into the low 20s northeast and
for inland portions of northwest Wisconsin, and the middle to
upper 30s under the stratus over the northwest. Highs today will
trend a little cooler in the north due to the cloud cover, and a
touch warmer south. Temperatures should top out in the middle 40s
northeast to around 60 degrees in central Minnesota. Areas along
the Lake Superior shore may see a lake breeze develop this
afternoon, which would limit temperatures to the low 40s within a
few miles of the lake.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. Clouds
will spread eastward across the Northland with the trough.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the best forcing for
ascent both north and south of the forecast area, so kept
Wednesday dry as well. Winds near the surface and aloft will veer
more southerly during the period. Clouds will arrive in our
western zones overnight, which should keep lows a little warmer.
Still trended lows a few degrees cooler than the consensus blends
in the west, and around 5 degrees cooler for inland portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The increasing cloud cover will also keep
temperatures on Wednesday a little cooler. Think the consensus
blend was too cool, however, and trended temperatures toward the
warmer guidance members, especially in northeast Minnesota and the
eastern portions of our Wisconsin zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Model differences begin immediately at the start of the long
term. Models disagree on the evolution/depth of a short wave
trough in the northern stream and the amount of phasing with the
cut off low in the southern stream. The GFS is weaker with the
shortwave trough/phasing with the southern stream. The ECMWF has a
sharper trough and better phasing with the southern stream. The
GEM is similar to the GFS. Regardless, surface ridging covers the
forecast area Wednesday evening and have a dry forecast. Late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the ECMWF/GFS bring QPF
to the southeast corner of the area and adjusted POPs as the
system moves nearby. Thursday afternoon through Friday finds the
ridging prevailing over the region as the aforementioned system
has departed. Friday night and Saturday finds a potent shortwave
moving across the forecast area. It`s associated surface
reflection moves over northern Minnesota. This will bring a
rain/snow mix to the international border area Friday night, then
change to all rain on Saturday. The GFS is the fastest at moving
this feature off to the east, the ECMWF/GEM are slower and keep
some QPF around through Saturday night. Used a blend leaning more
heavily on the GFS solution and have a dry forecast Saturday
night. Upper level and surface ridging return Sunday while the GEM
has an area of low pressure moving along the international border
area. The GFS also has this feature, but is up to 12 hours
slower. Used a blend through Monday to account for a growing
divergence amongst the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR through the forecast with high pressure nearby. Mid and high
clouds early will give way to just high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  28  45  29 /   0   0  10  10
INL  49  29  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  60  30  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  29  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  50  25  46  28 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF/Huyck
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281131
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
631 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dry and quiet conditions expected through the short term.

A weak shortwave trough associated with an area of cyclonic
vorticity advection was located over eastern North Dakota and
southeast Manitoba early this morning. The combination of mid-
level height falls ahead of and weak warm advection behind the
trough was supporting some mid-level stratus and an area of virga
over northwestern and portions of north-central Minnesota. At 3 AM
temperatures were in the middle 20s in northeast Minnesota and
inland portions of northwest Wisconsin. to the upper 30s at
Birchdale and International Falls.

The stratus is expected to spread eastward across northeast
Minnesota this morning. The 28.00Z INL sounding indicated a very
dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, so do not expect any of the
precipitation aloft to reach the ground today. In areas where
skies remain clear, patchy fog is expected before sunrise. Think
temperatures will continue to cool into the low 20s northeast and
for inland portions of northwest Wisconsin, and the middle to
upper 30s under the stratus over the northwest. Highs today will
trend a little cooler in the north due to the cloud cover, and a
touch warmer south. Temperatures should top out in the middle 40s
northeast to around 60 degrees in central Minnesota. Areas along
the Lake Superior shore may see a lake breeze develop this
afternoon, which would limit temperatures to the low 40s within a
few miles of the lake.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. Clouds
will spread eastward across the Northland with the trough.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the best forcing for
ascent both north and south of the forecast area, so kept
Wednesday dry as well. Winds near the surface and aloft will veer
more southerly during the period. Clouds will arrive in our
western zones overnight, which should keep lows a little warmer.
Still trended lows a few degrees cooler than the consensus blends
in the west, and around 5 degrees cooler for inland portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The increasing cloud cover will also keep
temperatures on Wednesday a little cooler. Think the consensus
blend was too cool, however, and trended temperatures toward the
warmer guidance members, especially in northeast Minnesota and the
eastern portions of our Wisconsin zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Model differences begin immediately at the start of the long
term. Models disagree on the evolution/depth of a short wave
trough in the northern stream and the amount of phasing with the
cut off low in the southern stream. The GFS is weaker with the
shortwave trough/phasing with the southern stream. The ECMWF has a
sharper trough and better phasing with the southern stream. The
GEM is similar to the GFS. Regardless, surface ridging covers the
forecast area Wednesday evening and have a dry forecast. Late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the ECMWF/GFS bring QPF
to the southeast corner of the area and adjusted POPs as the
system moves nearby. Thursday afternoon through Friday finds the
ridging prevailing over the region as the aforementioned system
has departed. Friday night and Saturday finds a potent shortwave
moving across the forecast area. It`s associated surface
reflection moves over northern Minnesota. This will bring a
rain/snow mix to the international border area Friday night, then
change to all rain on Saturday. The GFS is the fastest at moving
this feature off to the east, the ECMWF/GEM are slower and keep
some QPF around through Saturday night. Used a blend leaning more
heavily on the GFS solution and have a dry forecast Saturday
night. Upper level and surface ridging return Sunday while the GEM
has an area of low pressure moving along the international border
area. The GFS also has this feature, but is up to 12 hours
slower. Used a blend through Monday to account for a growing
divergence amongst the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR through the forecast with high pressure nearby. Mid and high
clouds early will give way to just high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  28  45  29 /   0   0  10  10
INL  49  29  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  60  30  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  29  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  50  25  46  28 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF/Huyck
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280840
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

There are three concerns for the short term. The first is adddtional
fog development early this morning, high temperatures today and the
chance of rain late tonight.

A surface ridge stretches north to south along the western spine of
MN early this morning. Widespread dense fog has formed in eastern ND
and is pushing slowly southward into northeast SD. Short term
guidance keeps this just to our west through daybreak and no
headline is expected at this time. Farther east, areas of fog were
common over south central MN on northeast through west central WI.
So far, only isolated spots of dense fog are noted, with one being
at the KEAU airfield, which is typical in this pattern. There has
been an increase in mid level clouds across west central and
southwest MN, ahead of a mid level trough that stretches west to
east across central MN and WI. In addition there are also some high
level clouds streaming across the southern third of MN. Current
thinking is that any dense fog will likely be confined from near
KAEL to KEAU. Will continue to monitor for a dense fog advisory, but
not planning one at this time.

Once the H7 trough moves south of us by mid morning we will be
looking at a good deal of sunshine for the rest of the day. The 925-
850mb column is a degree or two warmer over that on Monday. Hence,
highs should be at or above what we experienced, which got out of
control in the Twin Cities with lower 60s. Mix-down from 850mb
supports 60-65 from the Twin Cities on WNW through KRWF, KBDH and
KAXN. Readings to the east and south are more in the 55 to 60 degree
range. Guidance used to make the thermal gradient sharper included
an equal blend of BC ADJMET, BC GFS and BC CONSRAW.

The surface ridge will move off to the east of the FA early tonight
with increasing SE low level flow. It will be a warmer night with
lows in the upper 30s from the Twin Cities on WNW with 30-35 to the
north, east and south of KMSP. The third in a series of a strong
upper low in the southern stream will advance into the central and
southern Plains overnight. The CAMS keep the leading edge of the
light rain almost entirely out of our FA until after 12z Wednesday.
Therefore, only slight chance pops reach SW Martin county
through 11z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The longer term concern remains the coverage of light rain
spreading over the southern third of Minnesota into west central
WIsconsin Wednesday into Thursday.

The deterministic models have pretty much come to a consensus of
drawing moisture into at least the southern third of Minnesota
during the day Wednesday...and then moving it east as the northern
and southern stream phase enough to generate enough moisture
transport into the region. The 290k isentropic forecast actually
draws lower level saturation central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin Wednesday night and actually drops a couple hundredths
of an inch of liquid in this region. It still remains a question
of how far north and west this will develop...and we did draw PoPs
a bit farther north into east central Minnesota. Temperatures are
forecast to drop off into the mid 30s and thickness and lower
level boundary layer temepratures may get cool enough for at least
a rain/snow mix to the southeast late Wednesday night. Little or
no accumulation is expected however.

Following this system...drier air returns to the region as the
upper flow pattern remains split. Models still draw a waves in the
northern stream across the region during the Saturday/Saturday
night time frame. There is a wide spread in strength and how much
moisture will be available. We retained the small PoP for parts
of the cwa.

Models diverge further into early next week...with an increasing
threat of more widespread precipitation developing into early
next week. There remains a phasing issue with the western conus
trough and its counterpart to the north...so overall timing will
continue to be a problem. Overall...temperatures should remain
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Will look for low clouds/fog to develop over much of the WFO MPX
coverage area overnight, particularly in south central/southeast
Minnesota then slowly spread east/northeast across eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Depth of the moisture remains
shallow so only expect MVFR fog for the most part but some IFR
visibility cannot be ruled out. Clearing will then take place
shortly after daybreak, resulting in solid VFR conditions
tomorrow. Winds will remain light from the north/northeast, and
more east Tuesday morning.

KMSP...Main issue will be fog development during the Tuesday
morning push. Seeing MVFR visibilities are certainly reasonable
with a small duration of IFR visibility not able to be ruled out.
Low stratus does not look to be an issue due to rather light winds
being more conducive to fog development but moisture advection
into the area overnight will be key. Winds will remain at or below
7 knots throughout this TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Chc -RA late. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 8-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280811
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dry and quiet conditions expected through the short term.

A weak shortwave trough associated with an area of cyclonic
vorticity advection was located over eastern North Dakota and
southeast Manitoba early this morning. The combination of mid-
level height falls ahead of and weak warm advection behind the
trough was supporting some mid-level stratus and an area of virga
over northwestern and portions of north-central Minnesota. At 3 AM
temperatures were in the middle 20s in northeast Minnesota and
inland portions of northwest Wisconsin. to the upper 30s at
Birchdale and International Falls.

The stratus is expected to spread eastward across northeast
Minnesota this morning. The 28.00Z INL sounding indicated a very
dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, so do not expect any of the
precipitation aloft to reach the ground today. In areas where
skies remain clear, patchy fog is expected before sunrise. Think
temperatures will continue to cool into the low 20s northeast and
for inland portions of northwest Wisconsin, and the middle to
upper 30s under the stratus over the northwest. Highs today will
trend a little cooler in the north due to the cloud cover, and a
touch warmer south. Temperatures should top out in the middle 40s
northeast to around 60 degrees in central Minnesota. Areas along
the Lake Superior shore may see a lake breeze develop this
afternoon, which would limit temperatures to the low 40s within a
few miles of the lake.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. Clouds
will spread eastward across the Northland with the trough.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the best forcing for
ascent both north and south of the forecast area, so kept
Wednesday dry as well. Winds near the surface and aloft will veer
more southerly during the period. Clouds will arrive in our
western zones overnight, which should keep lows a little warmer.
Still trended lows a few degrees cooler than the consensus blends
in the west, and around 5 degrees cooler for inland portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The increasing cloud cover will also keep
temperatures on Wednesday a little cooler. Think the consensus
blend was too cool, however, and trended temperatures toward the
warmer guidance members, especially in northeast Minnesota and the
eastern portions of our Wisconsin zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Model differences begin immediately at the start of the long
term. Models disagree on the evolution/depth of a short wave
trough in the northern stream and the amount of phasing with the
cut off low in the southern stream. The GFS is weaker with the
shortwave trough/phasing with the southern stream. The ECMWF has a
sharper trough and better phasing with the southern stream. The
GEM is similar to the GFS. Regardless, surface ridging covers the
forecast area Wednesday evening and have a dry forecast. Late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the ECMWF/GFS bring QPF
to the southeast corner of the area and adjusted POPs as the
system moves nearby. Thursday afternoon through Friday finds the
ridging prevailing over the region as the aforementioned system
has departed. Friday night and Saturday finds a potent shortwave
moving across the forecast area. It`s associated surface
reflection moves over northern Minnesota. This will bring a
rain/snow mix to the international border area Friday night, then
change to all rain on Saturday. The GFS is the fastest at moving
this feature off to the east, the ECMWF/GEM are slower and keep
some QPF around through Saturday night. Used a blend leaning more
heavily on the GFS solution and have a dry forecast Saturday
night. Upper level and surface ridging return Sunday while the GEM
has an area of low pressure moving along the international border
area. The GFS also has this feature, but is up to 12 hours
slower. Used a blend through Monday to account for a growing
divergence amongst the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR for much of the forecast with high pressure in the
neighborhood. However, mid clouds and possibly lower end VFR
clouds moving into the area at the start of the forecast. Some
BR/FG noted at some sites along the Red River Valley of the North
and will monitor for possible later addition to INL/HIB/BRD
terminals. Still expecting patchy BR elsewhere before 14Z. After
14Z, anticipating a return to VFR with no BR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  28  45  29 /   0   0  10  10
INL  49  29  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  60  30  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  56  29  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  48  25  46  28 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF/Huyck
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280811
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dry and quiet conditions expected through the short term.

A weak shortwave trough associated with an area of cyclonic
vorticity advection was located over eastern North Dakota and
southeast Manitoba early this morning. The combination of mid-
level height falls ahead of and weak warm advection behind the
trough was supporting some mid-level stratus and an area of virga
over northwestern and portions of north-central Minnesota. At 3 AM
temperatures were in the middle 20s in northeast Minnesota and
inland portions of northwest Wisconsin. to the upper 30s at
Birchdale and International Falls.

The stratus is expected to spread eastward across northeast
Minnesota this morning. The 28.00Z INL sounding indicated a very
dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, so do not expect any of the
precipitation aloft to reach the ground today. In areas where
skies remain clear, patchy fog is expected before sunrise. Think
temperatures will continue to cool into the low 20s northeast and
for inland portions of northwest Wisconsin, and the middle to
upper 30s under the stratus over the northwest. Highs today will
trend a little cooler in the north due to the cloud cover, and a
touch warmer south. Temperatures should top out in the middle 40s
northeast to around 60 degrees in central Minnesota. Areas along
the Lake Superior shore may see a lake breeze develop this
afternoon, which would limit temperatures to the low 40s within a
few miles of the lake.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. Clouds
will spread eastward across the Northland with the trough.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the best forcing for
ascent both north and south of the forecast area, so kept
Wednesday dry as well. Winds near the surface and aloft will veer
more southerly during the period. Clouds will arrive in our
western zones overnight, which should keep lows a little warmer.
Still trended lows a few degrees cooler than the consensus blends
in the west, and around 5 degrees cooler for inland portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The increasing cloud cover will also keep
temperatures on Wednesday a little cooler. Think the consensus
blend was too cool, however, and trended temperatures toward the
warmer guidance members, especially in northeast Minnesota and the
eastern portions of our Wisconsin zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Model differences begin immediately at the start of the long
term. Models disagree on the evolution/depth of a short wave
trough in the northern stream and the amount of phasing with the
cut off low in the southern stream. The GFS is weaker with the
shortwave trough/phasing with the southern stream. The ECMWF has a
sharper trough and better phasing with the southern stream. The
GEM is similar to the GFS. Regardless, surface ridging covers the
forecast area Wednesday evening and have a dry forecast. Late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the ECMWF/GFS bring QPF
to the southeast corner of the area and adjusted POPs as the
system moves nearby. Thursday afternoon through Friday finds the
ridging prevailing over the region as the aforementioned system
has departed. Friday night and Saturday finds a potent shortwave
moving across the forecast area. It`s associated surface
reflection moves over northern Minnesota. This will bring a
rain/snow mix to the international border area Friday night, then
change to all rain on Saturday. The GFS is the fastest at moving
this feature off to the east, the ECMWF/GEM are slower and keep
some QPF around through Saturday night. Used a blend leaning more
heavily on the GFS solution and have a dry forecast Saturday
night. Upper level and surface ridging return Sunday while the GEM
has an area of low pressure moving along the international border
area. The GFS also has this feature, but is up to 12 hours
slower. Used a blend through Monday to account for a growing
divergence amongst the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR for much of the forecast with high pressure in the
neighborhood. However, mid clouds and possibly lower end VFR
clouds moving into the area at the start of the forecast. Some
BR/FG noted at some sites along the Red River Valley of the North
and will monitor for possible later addition to INL/HIB/BRD
terminals. Still expecting patchy BR elsewhere before 14Z. After
14Z, anticipating a return to VFR with no BR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  28  45  29 /   0   0  10  10
INL  49  29  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  60  30  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  56  29  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  48  25  46  28 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF/Huyck
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280529
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A generally tranquil weather pattern through the beginning of the
work week with the biggest weather concern being fog tonight.

On the synoptic scale a longwave trough digs into the Four Corners
region tonight into Tuesday with a resulting surface low developing
in the Texas panhandle region. To the north, a ridge across the
Canadian Prairie this afternoon will move eastward through Tuesday,
leading to an area of high pressure building across northern
Manitoba. In between, the upper Midwest will transition to a nearly
zonal flow at mid to upper levels with weak disturbances moving
across having little impacts to sensible weather.

Tonight skies are expected to clear out initially, but as
temperatures fall areas of fog are expected to develop, especially
north of the Iron Range in northern Minnesota and parts of northwest
Wisconsin, especially east of a line from Hayward to Ashland. Lows
will fall to near 20 in some parts of inland Cook county MN,
elsewhere in the mid to upper 20s. Nearly calm wind.

Tuesday will begin with morning fog giving way to mostly sunny
skies. A chance for clouds across northern Minnesota due to a a weak
mid-level vort max moving east across the region, but no
precipitation is expected. Highs slightly warmer than today in the
50s to near 60, except inland areas of Cook county where the snow
pack may keep highs limited to the 40s. East winds off Lake Superior
may also result in cooler temperatures by the lake.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The surface ridge remains over the area Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, with relatively quiet weather for the forecast area.  A
weak shortwave moving through the mid levels should bring some cloud
cover to areas along the Canadian border Wednesday, but it does not
appear we will have enough moisture for anything more.  A strong
upper low that ejects slowly out over the plains on Wednesday is
forecast to move slowly east through Thursday and Friday, and is
likely to spread a bunch of cloud cover our way.  Previous model
runs had also brought precipitation into the southeastern portions
of the forecast area, but the latest runs and the trend has been for
this upper low to stay farther south and leave us dry for Thursday
and Thursday night.  Friday night and Saturday a fairly potent
shortwave moves through the upper level flow, and should bring some
precipitation chances to the area, mainly across northern Minnesota.
 For now it looks like we should get a rain/snow mixture, as it
moves through the area at night, and cold air coming in on the back
side of the wave should manage to turn at least some of the area to
snow for the overnight and early Saturday morning hours.  Main
concern is for timing and track with this wave, as the ECMWF is much
weaker with it and has less precipitation than the GFS.  Confidence
in the forecast beyond Saturday is pretty shaky as the models are
struggling with a trough that moves on shore Saturday night/Sunday,
with the ECMWF much faster and weaker, with a stronger and slower
feature depicted in the GFS.  In fact, the GFS feature is so slow a
ridge builds over the midwest and brings warmer temperatures into
the forecast area even as the ECMWF is bringing that wave across the
midwest and bringing cooler temperatures and chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR for much of the forecast with high pressure in the
neighborhood. However, mid clouds and possibly lower end VFR
clouds moving into the area at the start of the forecast. Some
BR/FG noted at some sites along the Red River Valley of the North
and will monitor for possible later addition to INL/HIB/BRD
terminals. Still expecting patchy BR elsewhere before 14Z. After
14Z, anticipating a return to VFR with no BR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  48  29  43 /   0   0   0   0
INL  25  49  29  50 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  28  58  32  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  27  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  28  48  27  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280341
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1041 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Regional visible satellite imagery indicated a fine line of low
clouds, mixed with fog/drizzle in portions of west central
Wisconsin, and south central Minnesota, had slowly eroded along
the northern edge this afternoon. Temperatures under the denser
cloud cover only managed to rise into the 40s, compared to the mid
to upper 50s where sunshine was abundant in the west and central
part of the state.

The main concern overnight is the relatively light winds in the
boundary layer, coupled with abundant moisture near the surface,
to lead for areas of fog to form. HRRR, and other models that
have a visibility parameter, do indicate an expanding area of fog
in south central/southeast Minnesota this evening. The only
parameter that makes things more unlikely for dense fog to form is
the current cloud cover. This area needs to be watched for the
possibility of a dense fog advisory if conditions warrant.
Elsewhere, patchy to areas of fog are likely, but not as
widespread as in the southeast part of the state. Therefore, I
have continued the trend of widespread fog south and east from
Mankato to Red Wing. Any fog that forms overnight should dissipate
by mid morning Tuesday with more sunshine likely by the afternoon
than today. Temperatures should reflect more sunshine with highs
in the 50s, to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The atmosphere is caught in a repeating pattern with a highly
amplified trough that digs over the west coast. Eventually this wave
becomes cut off from the main flow as a northern stream ridge breaks
onshore the Pacific Northwest. The cresting ridge sends the northern
stream jet along the International border, leaving the Midwest in a
split flow regime.

No significant changes from the previous forecast. Model trends
continue to show the precipitation being centered over Iowa and
Wisconsin for Wednesday and Thursday. Still have chances for rain
across the far southeast part of the forecast area, but any rain that
does occur will only amount to a few hundredths of an inch.

That`s about it for precip chances over the next 7 days for the
Upper Midwest. the 7-day rainfall total off from the Weather
Prediction Center has a dry area over much of the NWS Twin Cities
forecast area, and based on the 27.12 GFS/GEM/ECMWF have little
evidence to disagree with that forecast. Temperatures will continue
to be around 5 degrees above the seasonal average for late March
heading into early April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Will look for low clouds/fog to develop over much of the WFO MPX
coverage area overnight, particularly in south central/southeast
Minnesota then slowly spread east/northeast across eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Depth of the moisture remains
shallow so only expect MVFR fog for the most part but some IFR
visibility cannot be ruled out. Clearing will then take place
shortly after daybreak, resulting in solid VFR conditions
tomorrow. Winds will remain light from the north/northeast, and
more east Tuesday morning.

KMSP...Main issue will be fog development during the Tuesday
morning push. Seeing MVFR visibilities are certainly reasonable
with a small duration of IFR visibility not able to be ruled out.
Low stratus does not look to be an issue due to rather light winds
being more conducive to fog development but moisture advection
into the area overnight will be key. Winds will remain at or below
7 knots throughout this TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Chc -RA late. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 8-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272328
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Updated for the new 00Z Aviation Discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A generally tranquil weather pattern through the beginning of the
work week with the biggest weather concern being fog tonight.

On the synoptic scale a longwave trough digs into the Four Corners
region tonight into Tuesday with a resulting surface low developing
in the Texas panhandle region. To the north, a ridge across the
Canadian Prairie this afternoon will move eastward through Tuesday,
leading to an area of high pressure building across northern
Manitoba. In between, the upper Midwest will transition to a nearly
zonal flow at mid to upper levels with weak disturbances moving
across having little impacts to sensible weather.

Tonight skies are expected to clear out initially, but as
temperatures fall areas of fog are expected to develop, especially
north of the Iron Range in northern Minnesota and parts of northwest
Wisconsin, especially east of a line from Hayward to Ashland. Lows
will fall to near 20 in some parts of inland Cook county MN,
elsewhere in the mid to upper 20s. Nearly calm wind.

Tuesday will begin with morning fog giving way to mostly sunny
skies. A chance for clouds across northern Minnesota due to a a weak
mid-level vort max moving east across the region, but no
precipitation is expected. Highs slightly warmer than today in the
50s to near 60, except inland areas of Cook county where the snow
pack may keep highs limited to the 40s. East winds off Lake Superior
may also result in cooler temperatures by the lake.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The surface ridge remains over the area Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, with relatively quiet weather for the forecast area.  A
weak shortwave moving through the mid levels should bring some cloud
cover to areas along the Canadian border Wednesday, but it does not
appear we will have enough moisture for anything more.  A strong
upper low that ejects slowly out over the plains on Wednesday is
forecast to move slowly east through Thursday and Friday, and is
likely to spread a bunch of cloud cover our way.  Previous model
runs had also brought precipitation into the southeastern portions
of the forecast area, but the latest runs and the trend has been for
this upper low to stay farther south and leave us dry for Thursday
and Thursday night.  Friday night and Saturday a fairly potent
shortwave moves through the upper level flow, and should bring some
precipitation chances to the area, mainly across northern Minnesota.
 For now it looks like we should get a rain/snow mixture, as it
moves through the area at night, and cold air coming in on the back
side of the wave should manage to turn at least some of the area to
snow for the overnight and early Saturday morning hours.  Main
concern is for timing and track with this wave, as the ECMWF is much
weaker with it and has less precipitation than the GFS.  Confidence
in the forecast beyond Saturday is pretty shaky as the models are
struggling with a trough that moves on shore Saturday night/Sunday,
with the ECMWF much faster and weaker, with a stronger and slower
feature depicted in the GFS.  In fact, the GFS feature is so slow a
ridge builds over the midwest and brings warmer temperatures into
the forecast area even as the ECMWF is bringing that wave across the
midwest and bringing cooler temperatures and chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

High pressure over the region will promote clear skies and very
light wind speeds tonight and early Tuesday. The VFR conditions
are forecast to continue for much of the period, with the
exception of the a period of mist/fog tonight and early Tuesday.
Fog is possible late tonight, but probably developing until
closer to dawn. The confidence in the fog affecting any terminals
is the greatest for KDLH and KHIB, but less so for KINL, KBRD, and
KHYR. Stuck with brief, 2 to 4 hour windows, of MVFR to as low as
IFR conditions at the terminals. The fog should lift in the
morning shortly after dawn, unless thick stratus develops and
hampers the lifting of the fog. This risk is mainly for KDLH
because morning winds may be from Lake Superior, providing
moisture input from the Lake and orographic lifting processes to
help maintain stratus, if it develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  48  29  43 /   0   0   0   0
INL  25  49  29  50 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  28  58  32  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  27  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  28  48  27  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...Grochocinski




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272116
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A generally tranquil weather pattern through the beginning of the
work week with the biggest weather concern being fog tonight.

On the synoptic scale a longwave trough digs into the Four Corners
region tonight into Tuesday with a resulting surface low developing
in the Texas panhandle region. To the north, a ridge across the
Canadian Prairie this afternoon will move eastward through Tuesday,
leading to an area of high pressure building across northern
Manitoba. In between, the upper Midwest will transition to a nearly
zonal flow at mid to upper levels with weak disturbances moving
across having little impacts to sensible weather.

Tonight skies are expected to clear out initially, but as
temperatures fall areas of fog are expected to develop, especially
north of the Iron Range in northern Minnesota and parts of northwest
Wisconsin, especially east of a line from Hayward to Ashland. Lows
will fall to near 20 in some parts of inland Cook county MN,
elsewhere in the mid to upper 20s. Nearly calm wind.

Tuesday will begin with morning fog giving way to mostly sunny
skies. A chance for clouds across northern Minnesota due to a a weak
mid-level vort max moving east across the region, but no
precipitation is expected. Highs slightly warmer than today in the
50s to near 60, except inland areas of Cook county where the snow
pack may keep highs limited to the 40s. East winds off Lake Superior
may also result in cooler temperatures by the lake.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The surface ridge remains over the area Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, with relatively quiet weather for the forecast area.  A
weak shortwave moving through the mid levels should bring some cloud
cover to areas along the Canadian border Wednesday, but it does not
appear we will have enough moisture for anything more.  A strong
upper low that ejects slowly out over the plains on Wednesday is
forecast to move slowly east through Thursday and Friday, and is
likely to spread a bunch of cloud cover our way.  Previous model
runs had also brought precipitation into the southeastern portions
of the forecast area, but the latest runs and the trend has been for
this upper low to stay farther south and leave us dry for Thursday
and Thursday night.  Friday night and Saturday a fairly potent
shortwave moves through the upper level flow, and should bring some
precipitation chances to the area, mainly across northern Minnesota.
 For now it looks like we should get a rain/snow mixture, as it
moves through the area at night, and cold air coming in on the back
side of the wave should manage to turn at least some of the area to
snow for the overnight and early Saturday morning hours.  Main
concern is for timing and track with this wave, as the ECMWF is much
weaker with it and has less precipitation than the GFS.  Confidence
in the forecast beyond Saturday is pretty shaky as the models are
struggling with a trough that moves on shore Saturday night/Sunday,
with the ECMWF much faster and weaker, with a stronger and slower
feature depicted in the GFS.  In fact, the GFS feature is so slow a
ridge builds over the midwest and brings warmer temperatures into
the forecast area even as the ECMWF is bringing that wave across the
midwest and bringing cooler temperatures and chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

VFR conditions as of issuance time, with a weak cold front just
south of the terminals and a ridge of high pressure building in
from the north. This ridge will continue to slide into the area
over the next 24 hours. Fog and some stratus are expected to
develop for KINL, KHIB and KDLH overnight tonight, with
MVFR visibilities developing between 03z-05z, and lowering to IFR
for some locations around 09z, and then improving back to VFR by
16z. Stratus may accompany the fog for KINL. Light winds less than
6 knots expected through the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  48  29  43 /   0   0   0   0
INL  24  49  29  50 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  29  58  32  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  25  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  26  48  27  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 272017
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
317 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Regional visible satellite imagery indicated a fine line of low
clouds, mixed with fog/drizzle in portions of west central
Wisconsin, and south central Minnesota, had slowly eroded along
the northern edge this afternoon. Temperatures under the denser
cloud cover only managed to rise into the 40s, compared to the mid
to upper 50s where sunshine was abundant in the west and central
part of the state.

The main concern overnight is the relatively light winds in the
boundary layer, coupled with abundant moisture near the surface,
to lead for areas of fog to form. HRRR, and other models that
have a visibility parameter, do indicate an expanding area of fog
in south central/southeast Minnesota this evening. The only
parameter that makes things more unlikely for dense fog to form is
the current cloud cover. This area needs to be watched for the
possibility of a dense fog advisory if conditions warrant.
Elsewhere, patchy to areas of fog are likely, but not as
widespread as in the southeast part of the state. Therefore, I
have continued the trend of widespread fog south and east from
Mankato to Red Wing. Any fog that forms overnight should dissipate
by mid morning Tuesday with more sunshine likely by the afternoon
than today. Temperatures should reflect more sunshine with highs
in the 50s, to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The atmosphere is caught in a repeating pattern with a highly
amplified trough that digs over the west coast. Eventually this wave
becomes cut off from the main flow as a northern stream ridge breaks
onshore the Pacific Northwest. The cresting ridge sends the northern
stream jet along the International border, leaving the Midwest in a
split flow regime.

No significant changes from the previous forecast. Model trends
continue to show the precipitation being centered over Iowa and
Wisconsin for Wednesday and Thursday. Still have chances for rain
across the far southeast part of the forecast area, but any rain that
does occur will only amount to a few hundredths of an inch.

That`s about it for precip chances over the next 7 days for the
Upper Midwest. the 7-day rainfall total off from the Weather
Prediction Center has a dry area over much of the NWS Twin Cities
forecast area, and based on the 27.12 GFS/GEM/ECMWF have little
evidence to disagree with that forecast. Temperatures will continue
to be around 5 degrees above the seasonal average for late March
heading into early April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

MVFR cigs affecting parts of southern Minnesota, and west central
Wisconsin will be the main aviation concern as
timing/dissipating this afternoon remains questionable. Based on
drier air advecting southward, and remnants of boundary layer
moisture holding near KEAU, the general trend of better conditions
by mid/late afternoon remains likely. Otherwise, later tonight
low clouds/fog will likely reform in south central/southeast
Minnesota and slowly spread east/northeast across eastern
Minnesota. Depth of the moisture remains shallow so only expect
some FG/BR for the most part during the typical morning hours
outside south central/southeast Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin. Winds will remain light from the north/northeast, and
more east Tuesday morning.

KMSP...

Main aviation concern is possible BR later tonight as boundary
layer moisture remains high, whereas mixing in this layer remains
weak. Based on overall trends, 4-5SM BR is likely during the pre
dawn hours. MVFR cigs will likely remain southeast of the
terminal, but close enough for later shifts to watch and possibly
adding to the taf. Winds will remain weak /under 8 kts/ from the
north/northeast this afternoon, and more east Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...VFR. Chc -RA late. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 8-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271751
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Updated aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A few areas of wintry mixed precipitation are expected this
morning before high pressure builds for the afternoon, yielding
dry and partly cloudy conditions through Tuesday.

Mainly cloudy skies were found across much of the Northland at
330 AM this morning. Areas of fog have been reported, with some
locales experiencing patchy dense fog. A few rain showers were
found across the southern portion of our Wisconsin zones, mainly
south of a line from Spooner to New Post, to Park Falls. Another
area of radar echoes was observed over central and portions of
north-central Minnesota, but precipitation was not reaching the
ground. Temperatures were at or a few degrees above freezing in
northwest Wisconsin, to the upper 20s to low 30s in northeast
Minnesota.

A weak cool front arced from southeast Saskatchewan across
northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota into northern Ontario
this morning with a ridge of high pressure over the Canadian
Prairies. A trough of low pressure aloft was over the central
Dakotas, with a smaller shortwave trough was over northeast
Minnesota. Two ribbons of cyclonic vorticity marked the eastern
edges of both troughs. Forcing for ascent with the leading trough
was supporting the showers over northwest Wisconsin, while the
trailing and deeper trough blossoming the radar returns in central
and northern Minnesota. A low-level wedge of dry air on the INL,
MPX, and ABR 27.00Z soundings suggests those echoes will need to
intensify before saturating the column enough to reach the
surface. Have added some low chance POPs from the Brainerd Lakes
into the Arrowhead this morning as the precipitation processes
aloft continue and lift northeastward. The showers over northwest
Wisconsin are expected to drift east-southeast with time and
should exit the forecast area later this morning or early this
afternoon. Thermal profiles over Minnesota suggest a possibility
for light snow or rain showers, while rain or freezing rain is
favored in northwest Wisconsin. Any areas which receive freezing
rain this morning can expect only a thin glaze, which will melt
quickly after sunrise. The cool front will sag southeastward today
before virtually washing out by early evening. Nudged temps a
little warmer today, especially in the western zones, but still
cooler than consensus. Think the lingering cloud cover will be
slow to erode this morning and early afternoon, limiting diurnal
heating.

Partly cloudy to mainly clear skies are expected for tonight as
high pressure drifts overhead. With recent mild temperatures,
precipitation, and some melting snowpack, think fog and low
stratus will develop tonight, especially in north-central
Minnesota and north of the Iron Range. However, the light winds
and mainly clear skies early should be sufficient to cool much of
our Minnesota zones below the consensus blends before fog
develops. Have nudged the overnight lows cooler as a result. High
pressure will remain in control on Tuesday yielding mainly sunny
to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures should climb a few degrees
warmer, except near Lake Superior where onshore flow will work to
keep highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Upper level and surface ridging will cover the forecast area
Tuesday night through Wednesday. The surface ridge remains on
Wednesday while a baggy shortwave approaches from the west. This
baggy shortwave in the northern stream begins to phase with the
southern streams closed low moving through the Central Plains
Wednesday night. Differences begin to show up in the handling of
this melange, especially in regard to QPF. The ECMWF is more
bullish with QPF into north-central Wisconsin by 12Z Thursday.
Leaned to the drier approach of the GFS/GEM and have a dry
forecast Wednesday night. Thursday and Thursday night finds the
northern stream disconnecting from the southern stream on the GFS
which keeps a dry forecast/surface ridging over the region. The
GEM/ECMWF maintain the phasing until late Thursday night. Used a
blend which favored the GEM/ECMWF which had QPF tracks across the
southeast portion of the Wisconsin forecast area Thursday and
Thursday evening, before the system departs late. A surface high
drifts over the region Friday with weak upper ridging. The models
come into better agreement with the handling of the mass fields
Friday night and Saturday. An upper-level shortwave trough
crosses the forecast area late Friday night through Saturday. A
cold front will sweep across the region. Thermal profiles suggest
a rain/snow mix late Friday night changing to all rain Saturday.
Model differences return for Saturday night and Sunday. The GEM
has a clipper moving over the region, while the GFS/ECMWF feature
surface high pressure nearby, but large differences aloft. The GEM
was ignored. Used a blended approach which resulted in some low
chance POPs with the rain/snow mix in the evening, snow late,
then back to rain during the day Sunday with just enough upper
forcing nearby to warrant a mention.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

VFR conditions as of issuance time, with a weak cold front just
south of the terminals and a ridge of high pressure building in
from the north. This ridge will continue to slide into the area
over the next 24 hours. Fog and some stratus are expected to
develop for KINL, KHIB and KDLH overnight tonight, with
MVFR visibilities developing between 03z-05z, and lowering to IFR
for some locations around 09z, and then improving back to VFR by
16z. Stratus may accompany the fog for KINL. Light winds less than
6 knots expected through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  28  47  28 /  10   0   0   0
INL  45  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  56  29  57  31 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  47  27  54  27 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  44  27  45  27 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271730
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A rather convoluted pattern across the region early this morning.
The upper level low that was south of us yesterday morning at
this time is now over the western Great Lakes. The band of
precipitation that we had on the backside of the low, to the west
and north of the Twin Cities, is now a narrow band from northeast
of the Twin Cities through northwest WI. The precipitation will
move off slowly to the east this morning in concert with the upper
low. Therefore, had to include a small area of likely pops for a
time early this morning as a result. A ridge of high pressure over
the Dakotas will work into the western FA during the afternoon
and then cover the region tonight. Some sunshine will develop
across central and northwest areas of MN today. The south and east
will be hard pressed to see much sunshine due to a second strong
short wave/upper low over the central/southern Plains that is
moving rather briskly to the ENE. This is going to aid in keep the
low ceilings stuck over the eastern and southern FA until
tonight.

Highs today will be warmest in the NW FA and coldest in the SE FA
due to the cloud and low level thermal pattern. Went with
highs in the mid to upper 50s across west central and portions of
central MN where 925 MB temperatures are progged to reach 10 C. This
setup in the ND on Sunday with some sunshine yielded highs around
60. Highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s were used to the east and
south.

Low tonight are expected to drop off into the mid/upper 20s across
central MN and west central WI with high pressure overhead at
daybreak Tuesday. Lows in the lower to middle 30s are common to the
south and west. Still concerned about the fog potential tonight.
Hydrolapse data is pretty vertical until right before sunrise when
there is a little increase in specific humidity in the 100-200 foot
level. Hence, indicated some fog development in the 09z-12z
period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Longer term trends continue the overall model differences in
handling the overall split flow upper level flow pattern and the
ejection of the closed low to the south in the Wed-Thu night
time.

We start out with plenty of sunshine and highs in 50s for Tuesday.
Mix down did bring some upper 50s over the MN portion of the cwa.
The next cutoff circulation over the southern stream will move
east into the Mississippi River valley by WEdnesday. There is some
interaction with the northern stream trough which does tend to
phase some with the southern circulation. THis should at least
lift some clouds into the region during the day Wednesday...along
with a small chance of light rain over the southern cwa. We will
hold onto chance PoPs for now. The low ejects to the
east/northeast Wednesday night as both the GFS and ECMWF drop
another strong trough into the west then. This should spread light
rain into far southern MN and perhaps northeast toward Eau Claire
during through Thursday. We did mention some likely PoPs over the
southernmost tier of counties. Colder air filters into the
region...and there could be at least a rain/snow mix as the
precipitation moves east into Thursday morning. Expect a lot of
cloud cover as the system moves through...mainly to the south.
This will limit temperatures some with lower and mid 40s common to
the southeast. The GFS is furtherest south with the rain
threat...with both the ECMWF and Canadian models drawing some
moisture into the southern metro during this period.

This system pulls east Friday...and we should see more sunshine
lingering through at least Saturday. The northern stream brings a
weak front into the area sometime Sunday. Moisture is limited
however...and we will retain a slight chance for this feature for
now. Temperatures will warm through the 50s over the entire
region for the weekend...with the above normal temperature trend
continuing into early April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

MVFR cigs affecting parts of southern Minnesota, and west central
Wisconsin will be the main aviation concern as
timing/dissipating this afternoon remains questionable. Based on
drier air advecting southward, and remnants of boundary layer
moisture holding near KEAU, the general trend of better conditions
by mid/late afternoon remains likely. Otherwise, later tonight
low clouds/fog will likely reform in south central/southeast
Minnesota and slowly spread east/northeast across eastern
Minnesota. Depth of the moisture remains shallow so only expect
some FG/BR for the most part during the typical morning hours
outside south central/southeast Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin. Winds will remain light from the north/northeast, and
more east Tuesday morning.

KMSP...

Main aviation concern is possible BR later tonight as boundary
layer moisture remains high, whereas mixing in this layer remains
weak. Based on overall trends, 4-5SM BR is likely during the pre
dawn hours. MVFR cigs will likely remain southeast of the
terminal, but close enough for later shifts to watch and possibly
adding to the taf. Winds will remain weak /under 8 kts/ from the
north/northeast this afternoon, and more east Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...VFR. Chc -RA late. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 8-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271200
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A rather convoluted pattern across the region early this morning.
The upper level low that was south of us yesterday morning at
this time is now over the western Great Lakes. The band of
precipitation that we had on the backside of the low, to the west
and north of the Twin Cities, is now a narrow band from northeast
of the Twin Cities through northwest WI. The precipitation will
move off slowly to the east this morning in concert with the upper
low. Therefore, had to include a small area of likely pops for a
time early this morning as a result. A ridge of high pressure over
the Dakotas will work into the western FA during the afternoon
and then cover the region tonight. Some sunshine will develop
across central and northwest areas of MN today. The south and east
will be hard pressed to see much sunshine due to a second strong
short wave/upper low over the central/southern Plains that is
moving rather briskly to the ENE. This is going to aid in keep the
low ceilings stuck over the eastern and southern FA until
tonight.

Highs today will be warmest in the NW FA and coldest in the SE FA
due to the cloud and low level thermal pattern. Went with
highs in the mid to upper 50s across west central and portions of
central MN where 925 MB temperatures are progged to reach 10 C. This
setup in the ND on Sunday with some sunshine yielded highs around
60. Highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s were used to the east and
south.

Low tonight are expected to drop off into the mid/upper 20s across
central MN and west central WI with high pressure overhead at
daybreak Tuesday. Lows in the lower to middle 30s are common to the
south and west. Still concerned about the fog potential tonight.
Hydrolapse data is pretty vertical until right before sunrise when
there is a little increase in specific humidity in the 100-200 foot
level. Hence, indicated some fog development in the 09z-12z
period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Longer term trends continue the overall model differences in
handling the overall split flow upper level flow pattern and the
ejection of the closed low to the south in the Wed-Thu night
time.

We start out with plenty of sunshine and highs in 50s for Tuesday.
Mix down did bring some upper 50s over the MN portion of the cwa.
The next cutoff circulation over the southern stream will move
east into the Mississippi River valley by WEdnesday. There is some
interaction with the northern stream trough which does tend to
phase some with the southern circulation. THis should at least
lift some clouds into the region during the day Wednesday...along
with a small chance of light rain over the southern cwa. We will
hold onto chance PoPs for now. The low ejects to the
east/northeast Wednesday night as both the GFS and ECMWF drop
another strong trough into the west then. This should spread light
rain into far southern MN and perhaps northeast toward Eau Claire
during through Thursday. We did mention some likely PoPs over the
southernmost tier of counties. Colder air filters into the
region...and there could be at least a rain/snow mix as the
precipitation moves east into Thursday morning. Expect a lot of
cloud cover as the system moves through...mainly to the south.
This will limit temperatures some with lower and mid 40s common to
the southeast. The GFS is furtherest south with the rain
threat...with both the ECMWF and Canadian models drawing some
moisture into the southern metro during this period.

This system pulls east Friday...and we should see more sunshine
lingering through at least Saturday. The northern stream brings a
weak front into the area sometime Sunday. Moisture is limited
however...and we will retain a slight chance for this feature for
now. Temperatures will warm through the 50s over the entire
region for the weekend...with the above normal temperature trend
continuing into early April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The back edge of MVFR ceilings are just to the north of KRWF,
KMSP and KRNH at TAF issuance. They are drifting to the SE near 8
knots and should clear the aforementioned terminals in the 15z-16z
period. Mainly VFR conditions cover central MN although some
patchy MVFR or lower visibilities in BR/FG exist. A pesky band of
light rain and drizzle still persists from the east side of the
Twin Cities through KRNH to KRCX. This band is finally showing
signs of breaking down and only VCSH was used at KEAU this
morning. This terminal will also be the last to become VFR during
the afternoon. High pressure will cover the terminals tonight.
The main concern is whether or not there will be widespread BR/FG
development during the late night hours. The vertical hydrolapse
is not very supportive at this time and later forecasts will need
to fine tune the potential. Light NNE winds through the period.

KMSP...Stayed conservative with ceilings becoming VFR by 16z. This
could occur up to an hour earlier. Any drizzle is now SE of the
airfield.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Chc -RA late. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 8-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271125
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A few areas of wintry mixed precipitation are expected this
morning before high pressure builds for the afternoon, yielding
dry and partly cloudy conditions through Tuesday.

Mainly cloudy skies were found across much of the Northland at
330 AM this morning. Areas of fog have been reported, with some
locales experiencing patchy dense fog. A few rain showers were
found across the southern portion of our Wisconsin zones, mainly
south of a line from Spooner to New Post, to Park Falls. Another
area of radar echoes was observed over central and portions of
north-central Minnesota, but precipitation was not reaching the
ground. Temperatures were at or a few degrees above freezing in
northwest Wisconsin, to the upper 20s to low 30s in northeast
Minnesota.

A weak cool front arced from southeast Saskatchewan across
northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota into northern Ontario
this morning with a ridge of high pressure over the Canadian
Prairies. A trough of low pressure aloft was over the central
Dakotas, with a smaller shortwave trough was over northeast
Minnesota. Two ribbons of cyclonic vorticity marked the eastern
edges of both troughs. Forcing for ascent with the leading trough
was supporting the showers over northwest Wisconsin, while the
trailing and deeper trough blossoming the radar returns in central
and northern Minnesota. A low-level wedge of dry air on the INL,
MPX, and ABR 27.00Z soundings suggests those echoes will need to
intensify before saturating the column enough to reach the
surface. Have added some low chance POPs from the Brainerd Lakes
into the Arrowhead this morning as the precipitation processes
aloft continue and lift northeastward. The showers over northwest
Wisconsin are expected to drift east-southeast with time and
should exit the forecast area later this morning or early this
afternoon. Thermal profiles over Minnesota suggest a possibility
for light snow or rain showers, while rain or freezing rain is
favored in northwest Wisconsin. Any areas which receive freezing
rain this morning can expect only a thin glaze, which will melt
quickly after sunrise. The cool front will sag southeastward today
before virtually washing out by early evening. Nudged temps a
little warmer today, especially in the western zones, but still
cooler than consensus. Think the lingering cloud cover will be
slow to erode this morning and early afternoon, limiting diurnal
heating.

Partly cloudy to mainly clear skies are expected for tonight as
high pressure drifts overhead. With recent mild temperatures,
precipitation, and some melting snowpack, think fog and low
stratus will develop tonight, especially in north-central
Minnesota and north of the Iron Range. However, the light winds
and mainly clear skies early should be sufficient to cool much of
our Minnesota zones below the consensus blends before fog
develops. Have nudged the overnight lows cooler as a result. High
pressure will remain in control on Tuesday yielding mainly sunny
to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures should climb a few degrees
warmer, except near Lake Superior where onshore flow will work to
keep highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Upper level and surface ridging will cover the forecast area
Tuesday night through Wednesday. The surface ridge remains on
Wednesday while a baggy shortwave approaches from the west. This
baggy shortwave in the northern stream begins to phase with the
southern streams closed low moving through the Central Plains
Wednesday night. Differences begin to show up in the handling of
this melange, especially in regard to QPF. The ECMWF is more
bullish with QPF into north-central Wisconsin by 12Z Thursday.
Leaned to the drier approach of the GFS/GEM and have a dry
forecast Wednesday night. Thursday and Thursday night finds the
northern stream disconnecting from the southern stream on the GFS
which keeps a dry forecast/surface ridging over the region. The
GEM/ECMWF maintain the phasing until late Thursday night. Used a
blend which favored the GEM/ECMWF which had QPF tracks across the
southeast portion of the Wisconsin forecast area Thursday and
Thursday evening, before the system departs late. A surface high
drifts over the region Friday with weak upper ridging. The models
come into better agreement with the handling of the mass fields
Friday night and Saturday. An upper-level shortwave trough
crosses the forecast area late Friday night through Saturday. A
cold front will sweep across the region. Thermal profiles suggest
a rain/snow mix late Friday night changing to all rain Saturday.
Model differences return for Saturday night and Sunday. The GEM
has a clipper moving over the region, while the GFS/ECMWF feature
surface high pressure nearby, but large differences aloft. The GEM
was ignored. Used a blended approach which resulted in some low
chance POPs with the rain/snow mix in the evening, snow late,
then back to rain during the day Sunday with just enough upper
forcing nearby to warrant a mention.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

VFR at the start of the forecast over the Minnesota terminals,
IFR at HYR. There are some showers in the vicinity of HYR and have
a mention early. Areas of BR are also occurring over northwest
Wisconsin. The IFR cigs over northwest Wisconsin will improve to
MVFR late this morning, then VFR in the early afternoon. The VFR
cigs will persist over the Minnesota terminals until late in the
forecast when some BR is expected to develop with MVFR vsbys
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  28  47  28 /  10   0   0   0
INL  47  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  55  29  57  31 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  47  27  54  27 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  43  27  45  27 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 270858
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
358 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A few areas of wintry mixed precipitation are expected this
morning before high pressure builds for the afternoon, yielding
dry and partly cloudy conditions through Tuesday.

Mainly cloudy skies were found across much of the Northland at
330 AM this morning. Areas of fog have been reported, with some
locales experiencing patchy dense fog. A few rain showers were
found across the southern portion of our Wisconsin zones, mainly
south of a line from Spooner to New Post, to Park Falls. Another
area of radar echoes was observed over central and portions of
north-central Minnesota, but precipitation was not reaching the
ground. Temperatures were at or a few degrees above freezing in
northwest Wisconsin, to the upper 20s to low 30s in northeast
Minnesota.

A weak cool front arced from southeast Saskatchewan across
northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota into northern Ontario
this morning with a ridge of high pressure over the Canadian
Prairies. A trough of low pressure aloft was over the central
Dakotas, with a smaller shortwave trough was over northeast
Minnesota. Two ribbons of cyclonic vorticity marked the eastern
edges of both troughs. Forcing for ascent with the leading trough
was supporting the showers over northwest Wisconsin, while the
trailing and deeper trough blossoming the radar returns in central
and northern Minnesota. A low-level wedge of dry air on the INL,
MPX, and ABR 27.00Z soundings suggests those echoes will need to
intensify before saturating the column enough to reach the
surface. Have added some low chance POPs from the Brainerd Lakes
into the Arrowhead this morning as the precipitation processes
aloft continue and lift northeastward. The showers over northwest
Wisconsin are expected to drift east-southeast with time and
should exit the forecast area later this morning or early this
afternoon. Thermal profiles over Minnesota suggest a possibility
for light snow or rain showers, while rain or freezing rain is
favored in northwest Wisconsin. Any areas which receive freezing
rain this morning can expect only a thin glaze, which will melt
quickly after sunrise. The cool front will sag southeastward today
before virtually washing out by early evening. Nudged temps a
little warmer today, especially in the western zones, but still
cooler than consensus. Think the lingering cloud cover will be
slow to erode this morning and early afternoon, limiting diurnal
heating.

Partly cloudy to mainly clear skies are expected for tonight as
high pressure drifts overhead. With recent mild temperatures,
precipitation, and some melting snowpack, think fog and low
stratus will develop tonight, especially in north-central
Minnesota and north of the Iron Range. However, the light winds
and mainly clear skies early should be sufficient to cool much of
our Minnesota zones below the consensus blends before fog
develops. Have nudged the overnight lows cooler as a result. High
pressure will remain in control on Tuesday yielding mainly sunny
to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures should climb a few degrees
warmer, except near Lake Superior where onshore flow will work to
keep highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Upper level and surface ridging will cover the forecast area
Tuesday night through Wednesday. The surface ridge remains on
Wednesday while a baggy shortwave approaches from the west. This
baggy shortwave in the northern stream begins to phase with the
southern streams closed low moving through the Central Plains
Wednesday night. Differences begin to show up in the handling of
this melange, especially in regard to QPF. The ECMWF is more
bullish with QPF into north-central Wisconsin by 12Z Thursday.
Leaned to the drier approach of the GFS/GEM and have a dry
forecast Wednesday night. Thursday and Thursday night finds the
northern stream disconnecting from the southern stream on the GFS
which keeps a dry forecast/surface ridging over the region. The
GEM/ECMWF maintain the phasing until late Thursday night. Used a
blend which favored the GEM/ECMWF which had QPF tracks across the
southeast portion of the Wisconsin forecast area Thursday and
Thursday evening, before the system departs late. A surface high
drifts over the region Friday with weak upper ridging. The models
come into better agreement with the handling of the mass fields
Friday night and Saturday. An upper-level shortwave trough
crosses the forecast area late Friday night through Saturday. A
cold front will sweep across the region. Thermal profiles suggest
a rain/snow mix late Friday night changing to all rain Saturday.
Model differences return for Saturday night and Sunday. The GEM
has a clipper moving over the region, while the GFS/ECMWF feature
surface high pressure nearby, but large differences aloft. The GEM
was ignored. Used a blended approach which resulted in some low
chance POPs with the rain/snow mix in the evening, snow late,
then back to rain during the day Sunday with just enough upper
forcing nearby to warrant a mention.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A trough of low pressure at the surface and a shortwave were
moving through portions of the Northland late this evening and
they will continue into Monday morning. Conditions varied from VFR
over a good portion of northern Minnesota to VLIFR around Lake
Superior to IFR/MVFR over northwest Wisconsin. Drizzle or freezing
drizzle will be possible over portions of northwest Wisconsin
into Monday morning as the shortwave impacts that area.

We do expect fog to continue to form overnight but confidence in
how dense it becomes and if stratus expands once again are lower
than average. KDLH has bounced around from from LIFR to MVFR and
back to LIFR. We think areas around Lake Superior will have the
best chance at seeing LIFR or VLIFR conditions. Conditions will
then improve on Monday as surface high pressure builds in. We
expect most areas will improve to VFR at some point during the day
but not all with areas around Lake Superior most likely to see
lower conditions linger.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  28  47  28 /  10   0   0   0
INL  47  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  55  29  57  31 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  47  27  54  27 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  43  27  45  27 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...Melde




000
FXUS63 KMPX 270838
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A rather convoluted pattern across the region early this morning.
The upper level low that was south of us yesterday morning at
this time is now over the western Great Lakes. The band of
precipitation that we had on the backside of the low, to the west
and north of the Twin Cities, is now a narrow band from northeast
of the Twin Cities through northwest WI. The precipitation will
move off slowly to the east this morning in concert with the upper
low. Therefore, had to include a small area of likely pops for a
time early this morning as a result. A ridge of high pressure over
the Dakotas will work into the western FA during the afternoon
and then cover the region tonight. Some sunshine will develop
across central and northwest areas of MN today. The south and east
will be hard pressed to see much sunshine due to a second strong
short wave/upper low over the central/southern Plains that is
moving rather briskly to the ENE. This is going to aid in keep the
low ceilings stuck over the eastern and southern FA until
tonight.

Highs today will be warmest in the NW FA and coldest in the SE FA
due to the cloud and low level thermal pattern. Went with
highs in the mid to upper 50s across west central and portions of
central MN where 925 MB temperatures are progged to reach 10 C. This
setup in the ND on Sunday with some sunshine yielded highs around
60. Highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s were used to the east and
south.

Low tonight are expected to drop off into the mid/upper 20s across
central MN and west central WI with high pressure overhead at
daybreak Tuesday. Lows in the lower to middle 30s are common to the
south and west. Still concerned about the fog potential tonight.
Hydrolapse data is pretty vertical until right before sunrise when
there is a little increase in specific humidity in the 100-200 foot
level. Hence, indicated some fog development in the 09z-12z
period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Longer term trends continue the overall model differences in
handling the overall split flow upper level flow pattern and the
ejection of the closed low to the south in the Wed-Thu night
time.

We start out with plenty of sunshine and highs in 50s for Tuesday.
Mix down did bring some upper 50s over the MN portion of the cwa.
The next cutoff circulation over the southern stream will move
east into the Mississippi River valley by WEdnesday. There is some
interaction with the northern stream trough which does tend to
phase some with the southern circulation. THis should at least
lift some clouds into the region during the day Wednesday...along
with a small chance of light rain over the southern cwa. We will
hold onto chance PoPs for now. The low ejects to the
east/northeast Wednesday night as both the GFS and ECMWF drop
another strong trough into the west then. This should spread light
rain into far southern MN and perhaps northeast toward Eau Claire
during through Thursday. We did mention some likely PoPs over the
southernmost tier of counties. Colder air filters into the
region...and there could be at least a rain/snow mix as the
precipitation moves east into Thursday morning. Expect a lot of
cloud cover as the system moves through...mainly to the south.
This will limit temperatures some with lower and mid 40s common to
the southeast. The GFS is furtherest south with the rain
threat...with both the ECMWF and Canadian models drawing some
moisture into the southern metro during this period.

This system pulls east Friday...and we should see more sunshine
lingering through at least Saturday. The northern stream brings a
weak front into the area sometime Sunday. Moisture is limited
however...and we will retain a slight chance for this feature for
now. Temperatures will warm through the 50s over the entire
region for the weekend...with the above normal temperature trend
continuing into early April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

MVFR ceilings will persist into Monday morning at most sites,
with the exception of KAXN. Even lower ceiling reductions (to IFR)
will occur at eastern sites (KMSP-KRNH-KEAU) overnight. Stuck
with the more optimistic cloud scattering/improvement trends on
Monday, with improvement to VFR at MN sites between 15z and 18z,
and WI sites between 20z and 23z. Visibilities overnight in the
3sm-5sm range are possible as areas of fog develop. Winds will be
light north/northeast through Monday morning, then more
east/southeast Monday aft/eve.

KMSP...
Low-end MVFR ceilings are expected through Monday morning, with a
period of IFR between 06z and 12z. Improving trends are expected
on Monday with VFR ceilings expected to develop around 18z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -RA late. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 7-10kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS




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