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000
FXUS61 KGYX 230009
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
709 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lift back north tonight and spread some
light snow across the area. This will gradually transition to
some drizzle overnight...which could get icy where temperatures
remain below freezing. By Tuesday morning steady precipitation
will be moving back in from the west. A period of sleet or
freezing rain will gradually transition to rain as the cold
front approaches the area. Once the front comes through we will
turn colder...but precipitation will come to an end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 pm Update: Input latest mesonet data and ingested into ESTF.
Light WAA overrunning precipitation now developing and
overspreading the area. The center of the cold high pressure
system is centered over downeast Maine allowing a deep layer of
cold air damming and drainage winds to continue from the north
and northeast at low levels, so light snow or mixed snow and
sleet expected this evening over central and northern areas of
ME/NH. Over extreme southern and southeast areas of NH ptype
will be primarily freezing rain as temps above the boundary
layer were warmer although shallow cold air remains at the
surface. Only minor adjustments were needed to forecast.

Previous Discussion:
Mid level warm front is moving steadily towards the forecast
area at this hour. Precipitation shield is fairly ragged
currently...but is expected to fill in as frontogenesis occurs
between the leading edge of WAA and cold dome in place. At the
moment however...precipitation has mostly come to an end across
the area. There may be some patchy drizzle or very light
snow...but I feel the most significant wx will move in around
the 22 to 23z window.

Most temps have fallen below freezing across the forecast
area...with parts of Srn NH and the CT River Valley hovering
around freezing. I expect this will be about the extent of the
coldest air. But that does leave room for accumulating snowfall
with this mid level warm front. Generally speaking 1 to 4
inches across the area...less in the S and more in the Wrn ME
mtns. Behind the mid level front we lose saturation and precip
may change to drizzle or freezing drizzle depending on surface
temps. The higher terrain may keep enough saturation to continue
light snow. Any ice amounts will be light from the overnight.

The main concern this evening will be watching to see if mid
level temps are warm enough to start as a mix right away across
Srn NH. In addition...the moist and mild air moving into the
colder air mass may lead to some areas of dense fog. No advisory
has been issued...but Srn NH into coastal Wrn ME would be the
most likely areas to see dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front and another area of steady precipitation will be
approaching from the W Tue morning. I expect significant parts
of the forecast area to remain below freezing at this time. This
round of precipitation will likely be freezing rain and sleet
for much of the area...before gradually transitioning to rain.
This will occur most rapidly along the coast and across Srn
NH...where strong Sly winds aloft help shove the surface front
Nwd. The interior will likely hang on to frozen or freezing
precip until around 18z...when ageostrophic flow becomes more
SEly. Given the precip rates and more marginal temps...ice
accumulation will mainly stay around a tenth to two tenths of an
inch. Enough to make some roads icy...but unlikely to cause
significant disruption to the power grid.

The rainfall amounts could be enough to contribute to some rises
on area rivers. This could be enough to cause ice movement and
additional ice jam flooding. See the flood watch for more
information.

As warm front moves into coastal area...especially Midcoast
ME...some of the stronger winds aloft may mix down. A small
window of near 50 mph wind gusts are possible if the warm front
can make it appreciably onshore around RKD. A wind advisory has
been issued.

Cold front sweeps thru the area late Tue...mixing out the dug in
low level cold. Precip will quickly end from W to E...with
upslope flow contributing to snow showers in the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the
long wave pattern through day 10. The pattern remains progressive
and begins to amplify with time. A steady progression of troughs
and ridges across the forecast area will result in several sharp
swings in temperature between well below and well above normal
readings. In the dailies...low pressure and associated shortwave
impulse exits into the maritimes on Wednesday with lingering
upslope clouds and snow showers for the higher terrain. A second
shortwave impulse and reinforcing shot of cold air arrives for
Wednesday Night and Thursday. The cold begins to ease on Friday
as ridging and rising heights arrive. A warm front lifts north
across the area Friday night with a southerly flow and well above
normal temperatures for the weekend. The more progressive GFS was
discarded as an outlier with the approaching frontal system in
favor of the ECMWF/CMC-Global solutions which brings the front
and steadier band of precipitation across the forecast area late
Saturday Night and Sunday. Colder air filters into the area by
Monday behind this system along with a return to below normal
temperatures to start the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread MVFR and areas of IFR CIGs remain across
the forecast area in light NE to onshore flow. We are seeing a
break in precip at this time which will gradually fill in from
the W starting around 22-23z. CIGs will continue to lower as
warmer air aloft moves in. I expect widespread IFR or lower
conditions...with maybe HIE remaining MVFR to VFR in downsloping
this evening. Precip this evening is expected to be mainly
SN...transitioning to DZ or FZDZ behind the mid level warm front
between 03 and 06z depending on surface temp. Between 12 and 15z
Tue another area of precip will move in from the W. I expect
this will begin as a brief period of FZRA or PL before changing
to RA at all terminals...with CON and AUG most at risk of
hanging on to colder surface temps the longest. This is also
about the time strong winds aloft move overhead and lead to LLWS
conditions. Winds will be strong close to the surface so shear
will begin in the 1000 to 1500 ft range. Cold front sweeps thru
the region late Tue...and winds become Wly and conditions
improve to MVFR and VFR.

Long Term...

Wed...Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn. NW sfc wind gusting to 25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...NE flow over the waters will gradually become Sly
overnight as a warm front lift Nwd. Some patchy dense fog is
possible as that warmer air moves Nwd. Winds increase Tue...and
gales are likely over the outer waters and Penobscot Bay. Gale
warnings remain in effect. There is a chance gale force gusts
may occur over Casco Bay...but confidence was not high enough to
include in the gale warning. Winds become Wly behind the cold
front later Tue...and SCA conditions will continue overnight.

Long Term...

Wed - Sat...Small Craft conditions are likely...with gusts
approaching gale outside the bays.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern half of New
Hampshire as well as western Maine south of the mountains.
These areas are expected to get enough rainfall during the day
on Tuesday to cause ice movement and possible ice jams on area
rivers. This could lead to minor flooding especially near areas
already affected by ice jams...including the
Ashuelot...Piscataquog...Saco...and Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for MEZ023>028.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ027-028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for NHZ001-002-
     004-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for NHZ003-005-
     007>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$




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000
FXUS61 KBOX 222246
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
546 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers along with areas of drizzle and fog persist
tonight with some light icing possible across interior northern MA.
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain and
perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm or two Tuesday along with
strong winds across portions of eastern MA and RI. Blustery,
dry and colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, then a
warming trend next weekend. A cold front may bring showers next
Sunday or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

545 PM update...

No significant changes to the forecast. Lots of low level
moisture, with weak lift aloft. This should maintain low
clouds/fog and areas of drizzle. Radar shows scattered showers
moving west to east, so some spots will have a light shower as
well. Most observations are above freezing and with dew points
at or above freezing. Some higher locations such as Worcester
Airport may continue to flirt with freezing temps through the
first half of the night.

Previous discussion...

Highlights tonight...

* Light icing threat across interior northern MA tonight
* Areas of Dense Fog especially across the high terrain

Details tonight...

A very subtle wave that passed east of our region earlier today and
has allowed winds to shift northeast over the last few hours.
Portsmouth NH has seen their temp drop from 38 to 30 in the last few
hours. This is often a warning sign for portions of northeast MA, so
opted to extend winter weather advisory into interior Essex as well
as Middlesex counties.  The greatest risk will be near the NH
border...where temps have already dropped to between 32 and 33 and
may see them fall another few degrees over the next few hours.
Another area of concern remains the high terrain of the Worcester
Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires...where pockets of light
freezing rain/freezing drizzle will continue tonight.  Main idea is
if traveling tonight across interior MA...untreated roads/walkways
may be icy even if they look wet.

The other big concern tonight will be areas of fog...which will be
locally dense.  We have already gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for the high terrain given an ideal setup with light moist
northeast winds.  Guidance indicates that dense fog may overspread
other portions of the region especially across the interior...so
the dense fog advisory may need to be expanded.

As for precipitation tonight...we are looking at a few showers along
with areas of drizzle and fog.  However...high resolution guidance
shows a steadier band of showers moving through the region this
evening.  Will also probably also see more showers develop toward
daybreak and low level jet begins to increase.  Again...ptype mainly
liquid with -fzra/-fzdz risk across parts of interior MA especially
near the NH border and across the high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday Highlights...

* Heavy rain/isolated thunderstorm risk
* Brief poor drainage street flooding possible
* Period of strong wind gusts along and southeast of BOS-PVD corridor

Tuesday Details...

Perhaps some pockets of left over light freezing rain across
interior MA early Tuesday morning...but that should quickly be
changing over to plain rain.  The main story will be surface low
pressure tracking northwest across the Great Lakes allowing most of
our area to gradually warm sector.  This will result in both Pwats
and southerly LLJ 3 standard deviations above normal.  Will break it
down a bit more below.

Heavy Rain/Isolated Thunderstorm Concerns...

Given the above ingredients combined with strong forcing...heavy
rain will overspread the region Tuesday morning into the early
afternoon from west to east.  The system is quite progressive...so
the bulk of the heavy rain will fall within a 6 hour period.
Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are expected.
Model soundings also indicate a few hundred J/KG of MUCape along
with steep mid level lapse rates...so an isolated thunderstorm or
two is certainly possible.  The greatest risk will be near the
southeast New England coast.  The heavy rain will mainly just result
in typical brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding. However...a
Flood Watch has been issued for the Millers River near Athol where
an ice jam remains frozen in place and has the potential to cause
additional flooding.  A Flood Warning also remains in effect for the
CT River at Middle Haddam...where this heavy rain may result in
increased flooding problems as a result of the ice jam.

Fortunately...this system is fairly progressive and the bulk of the
rain should have exited the southeast New England coast by 00z.

Strong Wind Potential...

A potent southerly low level jet around 80 knots at 925 mb will move
across the southeast New England coast Tuesday afternoon and early
evening.  Given surface temperatures expected to warm well into the
50s combined with heavy rain and potential convective elements a
wind advisory has been issued.  We are expecting some gusts to 50
mph Tuesday afternoon and early evening along and southeast of the
Boston to Providence corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave pattern starts the period with a ridge over the Plains and
shallow troughs over the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. The Atlantic
trough lingers through the week.

Shortwave scale shows multiple troughs crossing the northern USA
during this period.  A small but sharp trough moves across New
England Tuesday night, while a broader trough sweeps across on
Thursday and Friday.

Height fields at 500 mb and thermal fields at 850 mb forecast at
below normal January levels Wednesday night through Friday. Fields
then climb above normal Saturday and Sunday. This supports a colder
than normal period Thursday-Friday, trending milder than normal over
the weekend.

Model mass fields and thermal fields are in agreement through
Friday, followed by differences upstream over the Plains over the
weekend. This brings high confidence to the forecast through Friday
and low-moderate confidence Saturday through Monday.

Details...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

Cold front moves well offshore while the parent surface low moves
off through Quebec. Dry slot moves up across New England Tuesday
night. With the upper trough and associated cold pool moving
overhead, we would expect some strato-cu during the day
Wednesday...more than any of the forecast guidance is showing. But
with PW values at 0.25 inch or less it may simply be too dry.

Mixed layer depth should reach between 900 and 925 mb. The
warmer/deeper mixing would support Wednesday highs in the low to mid
40s, while the colder/shallower mixing would support highs in the
mid 30s to around 40. The mixed layer also will contain 20-25 knot
winds, supporting similar daytime wind gusts.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds over the region.  Cold advection and a tighter
pressure gradient will mean a blustery day Thursday with gusts 25-30
knots. Thursday temps around -14C at 900 mb suggest max temps mainly
in the 20s. Temps climb a couple of degrees Friday, so expect Friday
max temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. With airmass dew points in the
single numbers but lingering northwest wind, expect nighttime lows
in the upper single numbers and teens.

Saturday through Monday...

High pressure shifts offshore and surface winds turn from the
southwest. This will bring milder air back to the region. As noted
above, the incoming airmass is forecast to be above normal. Max
temps should at least reach the 40s with some potential to reach the
50s. Another upper trough is currently timed for early next week,
led by an associated surface cold front . There are differences
in model timing of the trough. The GFS shows fropa on Tuesday,
the ECMWF shows Monday, and the GGEM shows Sunday. So there is
uncertainty in timing of the cold front. For now we will show
chance pops Sunday-Monday. Temperatures look to be warm enough
for any precipitation to be rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions expected in
showers and fog. Some of the fog will be dense. Pockets of
light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain possible across
portions of interior MA...especially high terrain. Southerly
LLWS concern increases overnight.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions may
improve to mainly IFR conditions by late morning/early afternoon
as the worst of the fog mixes out. However...roughly a 6 hour
band of heavy rain with perhaps an embedded t-storm or two will
work across the region on Tuesday. Activity should be mainly
offshore by 00z. Southwest wind gusts up to 40 knots expected
along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor during
the afternoon. LLWS will be a concern for the rest of the
region.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible early.
Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence.  ENE winds will shift to SE
tonight with some gusts to 25 knots across our eastern waters along
with 3 to 6 foot seas.  The rest of our waters should generally have
winds/seas remaining below small craft advisory thresholds...but
areas of fog may be locally dense.

Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence.  Impressive 70 to 80 knot low
level jet lifts across the region from southwest to northeast.
Despite inversion in place...heavy rain and enough mixing should
provide a few hours of southwest 35 to 40 knot wind gusts Tuesday
afternoon into the evening.  Gale warnings are posted for all waters
as seas build between 7 and 11 feet.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers
early.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heavy rain will mainly just result in typical brief nuisance poor
drainage street flooding. However...a Flood Watch has been issued for
the Millers River near Athol where an ice jam remains frozen in place
and has the potential to cause additional flooding.  A Flood Warning
also remains in effect for the CT River at Middle Haddam...where this
heavy rain may result in increased flooding problems as a result of
the ice jam.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ004.
MA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ013-
     015>024.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002-004-008-
     009-012-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>006-
     008-026.
     Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     MAZ003-004.
RI...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ002>008.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Frank
NEAR TERM...WTB/Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Frank
MARINE...WTB/Frank
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222245
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
545 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers along with areas of drizzle and fog persist
tonight with some light icing possible across interior northern MA.
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain and
perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm or two Tuesday along with
strong winds across portions of eastern MA and RI. Blustery,
dry and colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, then a
warming trend next weekend. A cold front may bring showers next
Sunday or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

645 PM update...

No significant changes to the forecast. Lots of low level
moisture, with weak lift aloft. This should maintain low
clouds/fog and areas of drizzle. Radar shows scattered showers
moving west to east, so some spots will have a light shower as
well. Most observations are above freezing and with dew points
at or above freezing. Some higher locations such as Worcester
Airport may continue to flirt with freezing temps through the
first half of the night.

Previous discussion...

Highlights tonight...

* Light icing threat across interior northern MA tonight
* Areas of Dense Fog especially across the high terrain

Details tonight...

A very subtle wave that passed east of our region earlier today and
has allowed winds to shift northeast over the last few hours.
Portsmouth NH has seen their temp drop from 38 to 30 in the last few
hours. This is often a warning sign for portions of northeast MA, so
opted to extend winter weather advisory into interior Essex as well
as Middlesex counties.  The greatest risk will be near the NH
border...where temps have already dropped to between 32 and 33 and
may see them fall another few degrees over the next few hours.
Another area of concern remains the high terrain of the Worcester
Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires...where pockets of light
freezing rain/freezing drizzle will continue tonight.  Main idea is
if traveling tonight across interior MA...untreated roads/walkways
may be icy even if they look wet.

The other big concern tonight will be areas of fog...which will be
locally dense.  We have already gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for the high terrain given an ideal setup with light moist
northeast winds.  Guidance indicates that dense fog may overspread
other portions of the region especially across the interior...so
the dense fog advisory may need to be expanded.

As for precipitation tonight...we are looking at a few showers along
with areas of drizzle and fog.  However...high resolution guidance
shows a steadier band of showers moving through the region this
evening.  Will also probably also see more showers develop toward
daybreak and low level jet begins to increase.  Again...ptype mainly
liquid with -fzra/-fzdz risk across parts of interior MA especially
near the NH border and across the high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday Highlights...

* Heavy rain/isolated thunderstorm risk
* Brief poor drainage street flooding possible
* Period of strong wind gusts along and southeast of BOS-PVD corridor

Tuesday Details...

Perhaps some pockets of left over light freezing rain across
interior MA early Tuesday morning...but that should quickly be
changing over to plain rain.  The main story will be surface low
pressure tracking northwest across the Great Lakes allowing most of
our area to gradually warm sector.  This will result in both Pwats
and southerly LLJ 3 standard deviations above normal.  Will break it
down a bit more below.

Heavy Rain/Isolated Thunderstorm Concerns...

Given the above ingredients combined with strong forcing...heavy
rain will overspread the region Tuesday morning into the early
afternoon from west to east.  The system is quite progressive...so
the bulk of the heavy rain will fall within a 6 hour period.
Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are expected.
Model soundings also indicate a few hundred J/KG of MUCape along
with steep mid level lapse rates...so an isolated thunderstorm or
two is certainly possible.  The greatest risk will be near the
southeast New England coast.  The heavy rain will mainly just result
in typical brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding. However...a
Flood Watch has been issued for the Millers River near Athol where
an ice jam remains frozen in place and has the potential to cause
additional flooding.  A Flood Warning also remains in effect for the
CT River at Middle Haddam...where this heavy rain may result in
increased flooding problems as a result of the ice jam.

Fortunately...this system is fairly progressive and the bulk of the
rain should have exited the southeast New England coast by 00z.

Strong Wind Potential...

A potent southerly low level jet around 80 knots at 925 mb will move
across the southeast New England coast Tuesday afternoon and early
evening.  Given surface temperatures expected to warm well into the
50s combined with heavy rain and potential convective elements a
wind advisory has been issued.  We are expecting some gusts to 50
mph Tuesday afternoon and early evening along and southeast of the
Boston to Providence corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave pattern starts the period with a ridge over the Plains and
shallow troughs over the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. The Atlantic
trough lingers through the week.

Shortwave scale shows multiple troughs crossing the northern USA
during this period.  A small but sharp trough moves across New
England Tuesday night, while a broader trough sweeps across on
Thursday and Friday.

Height fields at 500 mb and thermal fields at 850 mb forecast at
below normal January levels Wednesday night through Friday. Fields
then climb above normal Saturday and Sunday. This supports a colder
than normal period Thursday-Friday, trending milder than normal over
the weekend.

Model mass fields and thermal fields are in agreement through
Friday, followed by differences upstream over the Plains over the
weekend. This brings high confidence to the forecast through Friday
and low-moderate confidence Saturday through Monday.

Details...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

Cold front moves well offshore while the parent surface low moves
off through Quebec. Dry slot moves up across New England Tuesday
night. With the upper trough and associated cold pool moving
overhead, we would expect some strato-cu during the day
Wednesday...more than any of the forecast guidance is showing. But
with PW values at 0.25 inch or less it may simply be too dry.

Mixed layer depth should reach between 900 and 925 mb. The
warmer/deeper mixing would support Wednesday highs in the low to mid
40s, while the colder/shallower mixing would support highs in the
mid 30s to around 40. The mixed layer also will contain 20-25 knot
winds, supporting similar daytime wind gusts.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds over the region.  Cold advection and a tighter
pressure gradient will mean a blustery day Thursday with gusts 25-30
knots. Thursday temps around -14C at 900 mb suggest max temps mainly
in the 20s. Temps climb a couple of degrees Friday, so expect Friday
max temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. With airmass dew points in the
single numbers but lingering northwest wind, expect nighttime lows
in the upper single numbers and teens.

Saturday through Monday...

High pressure shifts offshore and surface winds turn from the
southwest. This will bring milder air back to the region. As noted
above, the incoming airmass is forecast to be above normal. Max
temps should at least reach the 40s with some potential to reach the
50s. Another upper trough is currently timed for early next week,
led by an associated surface cold front . There are differences
in model timing of the trough. The GFS shows fropa on Tuesday,
the ECMWF shows Monday, and the GGEM shows Sunday. So there is
uncertainty in timing of the cold front. For now we will show
chance pops Sunday-Monday. Temperatures look to be warm enough
for any precipitation to be rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions expected in
showers and fog. Some of the fog will be dense. Pockets of
light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain possible across
portions of interior MA...especially high terrain. Southerly
LLWS concern increases overnight.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions may
improve to mainly IFR conditions by late morning/early afternoon
as the worst of the fog mixes out. However...roughly a 6 hour
band of heavy rain with perhaps an embedded t-storm or two will
work across the region on Tuesday. Activity should be mainly
offshore by 00z. Southwest wind gusts up to 40 knots expected
along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor during
the afternoon. LLWS will be a concern for the rest of the
region.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible early.
Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence.  ENE winds will shift to SE
tonight with some gusts to 25 knots across our eastern waters along
with 3 to 6 foot seas.  The rest of our waters should generally have
winds/seas remaining below small craft advisory thresholds...but
areas of fog may be locally dense.

Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence.  Impressive 70 to 80 knot low
level jet lifts across the region from southwest to northeast.
Despite inversion in place...heavy rain and enough mixing should
provide a few hours of southwest 35 to 40 knot wind gusts Tuesday
afternoon into the evening.  Gale warnings are posted for all waters
as seas build between 7 and 11 feet.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers
early.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heavy rain will mainly just result in typical brief nuisance poor
drainage street flooding. However...a Flood Watch has been issued for
the Millers River near Athol where an ice jam remains frozen in place
and has the potential to cause additional flooding.  A Flood Warning
also remains in effect for the CT River at Middle Haddam...where this
heavy rain may result in increased flooding problems as a result of
the ice jam.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ004.
MA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ013-
     015>024.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002-004-008-
     009-012-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>006-
     008-026.
     Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     MAZ003-004.
RI...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ002>008.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Frank
NEAR TERM...WTB/Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Frank
MARINE...WTB/Frank
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222052
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
352 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers along with areas of drizzle and fog persist
tonight with some light icing possible across interior northern MA.
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain and
perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm or two Tuesday along with
strong winds across portions of eastern MA and RI. Blustery,
dry and colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, then a
warming trend next weekend. A cold front may bring showers next
Sunday or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

Highlights tonight...

* Light icing threat across interior northern MA tonight
* Areas of Dense Fog especially across the high terrain

Details tonight...

A very subtle wave that passed east of our region earlier today and
has allowed winds to shift northeast over the last few hours.
Portsmouth NH has seen their temp drop from 38 to 30 in the last few
hours. This is often a warning sign for portions of northeast MA, so
opted to extend winter weather advisory into interior Essex as well
as Middlesex counties.  The greatest risk will be near the NH
border...where temps have already dropped to between 32 and 33 and
may see them fall another few degrees over the next few hours.
Another area of concern remains the high terrain of the Worcester
Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires...where pockets of light
freezing rain/freezing drizzle will continue tonight.  Main idea is
if traveling tonight across interior MA...untreated roads/walkways
may be icy even if they look wet.

The other big concern tonight will be areas of fog...which will be
locally dense.  We have already gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for the high terrain given an ideal setup with light moist
northeast winds.  Guidance indicates that dense fog may overspread
other portions of the region especially across the interior...so
the dense fog advisory may need to be expanded.

As for precipitation tonight...we are looking at a few showers along
with areas of drizzle and fog.  However...high resolution guidance
shows a steadier band of showers moving through the region this
evening.  Will also probably also see more showers develop toward
daybreak and low level jet begins to increase.  Again...ptype mainly
liquid with -fzra/-fzdz risk across parts of interior MA especially
near the NH border and across the high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Tuesday Highlights...

* Heavy rain/isolated thunderstorm risk
* Brief poor drainage street flooding possible
* Period of strong wind gusts along and southeast of BOS-PVD corridor

Tuesday Details...

Perhaps some pockets of left over light freezing rain across
interior MA early Tuesday morning...but that should quickly be
changing over to plain rain.  The main story will be surface low
pressure tracking northwest across the Great Lakes allowing most of
our area to gradually warm sector.  This will result in both Pwats
and southerly LLJ 3 standard deviations above normal.  Will break it
down a bit more below.

Heavy Rain/Isolated Thunderstorm Concerns...

Given the above ingredients combined with strong forcing...heavy
rain will overspread the region Tuesday morning into the early
afternoon from west to east.  The system is quite progressive...so
the bulk of the heavy rain will fall within a 6 hour period.
Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are expected.
Model soundings also indicate a few hundred J/KG of MUCape along
with steep mid level lapse rates...so an isolated thunderstorm or
two is certainly possible.  The greatest risk will be near the
southeast New England coast.  The heavy rain will mainly just result
in typical brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding. However...a
Flood Watch has been issued for the Millers River near Athol where
an ice jam remains frozen in place and has the potential to cause
additional flooding.  A Flood Warning also remains in effect for the
CT River at Middle Haddam...where this heavy rain may result in
increased flooding problems as a result of the ice jam.

Fortunately...this system is fairly progressive and the bulk of the
rain should have exited the southeast New England coast by 00z.

Strong Wind Potential...

A potent southerly low level jet around 80 knots at 925 mb will move
across the southeast New England coast Tuesday afternoon and early
evening.  Given surface temperatures expected to warm well into the
50s combined with heavy rain and potential convective elements a
wind advisory has been issued.  We are expecting some gusts to 50
mph Tuesday afternoon and early evening along and southeast of the
Boston to Providence corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave pattern starts the period with a ridge over the Plains and
shallow troughs over the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. The Atlantic
trough lingers through the week.

Shortwave scale shows multiple troughs crossing the northern USA
during this period.  A small but sharp trough moves across New
England Tuesday night, while a broader trough sweeps across on
Thursday and Friday.

Height fields at 500 mb and thermal fields at 850 mb forecast at
below normal January levels Wednesday night through Friday. Fields
then climb above normal Saturday and Sunday. This supports a colder
than normal period Thursday-Friday, trending milder than normal over
the weekend.

Model mass fields and thermal fields are in agreement through
Friday, followed by differences upstream over the Plains over the
weekend. This brings high confidence to the forecast through Friday
and low-moderate confidence Saturday through Monday.

Details...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

Cold front moves well offshore while the parent surface low moves
off through Quebec. Dry slot moves up across New England Tuesday
night. With the upper trough and associated cold pool moving
overhead, we would expect some strato-cu during the day
Wednesday...more than any of the forecast guidance is showing. But
with PW values at 0.25 inch or less it may simply be too dry.

Mixed layer depth should reach between 900 and 925 mb. The
warmer/deeper mixing would support Wednesday highs in the low to mid
40s, while the colder/shallower mixing would support highs in the
mid 30s to around 40. The mixed layer also will contain 20-25 knot
winds, supporting similar daytime wind gusts.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds over the region.  Cold advection and a tighter
pressure gradient will mean a blustery day Thursday with gusts 25-30
knots. Thursday temps around -14C at 900 mb suggest max temps mainly
in the 20s. Temps climb a couple of degrees Friday, so expect Friday
max temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. With airmass dew points in the
single numbers but lingering northwest wind, expect nighttime lows
in the upper single numbers and teens.

Saturday through Monday...

High pressure shifts offshore and surface winds turn from the
southwest. This will bring milder air back to the region. As noted
above, the incoming airmass is forecast to be above normal. Max
temps should at least reach the 40s with some potential to reach the
50s. Another upper trough is currently timed for early next week,
led by an associated surface cold front . There are differences
in model timing of the trough. The GFS shows fropa on Tuesday,
the ECMWF shows Monday, and the GGEM shows Sunday. So there is
uncertainty in timing of the cold front. For now we will show
chance pops Sunday-Monday. Temperatures look to be warm enough
for any precipitation to be rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions expected in
showers and fog...some of the fog will be dense. Pockets of -fzdz/-
fzra possible across portions of interior MA...especially high
terrain. Southerly LLWS concern increases overnight.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions may
improve to mainly IFR conditions by late morning/early afternoon
as the worst of the fog mixes out. However...roughly a 6 hour
band of heavy rain with perhaps an embedded t-storm or two will
work across the region on Tuesday. Activity should be mainly
offshore by 00z. Southwest wind gusts up to 40 knots expected
along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor during
the afternoon. LLWS will be a concern for the rest of the
region.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible early.
Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence.  ENE winds will shift to SE
tonight with some gusts to 25 knots across our eastern waters along
with 3 to 6 foot seas.  The rest of our waters should generally have
winds/seas remaining below small craft advisory thresholds...but
areas of fog may be locally dense.

Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence.  Impressive 70 to 80 knot low
level jet lifts across the region from southwest to northeast.
Despite inversion in place...heavy rain and enough mixing should
provide a few hours of southwest 35 to 40 knot wind gusts Tuesday
afternoon into the evening.  Gale warnings are posted for all waters
as seas build between 7 and 11 feet.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers
early.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The heavy rain will mainly just result in typical brief nuisance poor
drainage street flooding. However...a Flood Watch has been issued for
the Millers River near Athol where an ice jam remains frozen in place
and has the potential to cause additional flooding.  A Flood Warning
also remains in effect for the CT River at Middle Haddam...where this
heavy rain may result in increased flooding problems as a result of
the ice jam.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ004.
MA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ013-
     015>024.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002-004-008-
     009-012-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>006-
     008-026.
     Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     MAZ003-004.
RI...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ002>008.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/WTB
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...Frank/WTB
MARINE...Frank/WTB
HYDROLOGY...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222035
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
335 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lift back north tonight and spread some
light snow across the area. This will gradually transition to
some drizzle overnight...which could get icy where temperatures
remain below freezing. By Tuesday morning steady precipitation
will be moving back in from the west. A period of sleet or
freezing rain will gradually transition to rain as the cold
front approaches the area. Once the front comes through we will
turn colder...but precipitation will come to an end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mid level warm front is moving steadily towards the forecast
area at this hour. Precipitation shield is fairly ragged
currently...but is expected to fill in as frontogenesis occurs
between the leading edge of WAA and cold dome in place. At the
moment however...precipitation has mostly come to an end across
the area. There may be some patchy drizzle or very light
snow...but I feel the most significant wx will move in around
the 22 to 23z window.

Most temps have fallen below freezing across the forecast
area...with parts of Srn NH and the CT River Valley hovering
around freezing. I expect this will be about the extent of the
coldest air. But that does leave room for accumulating snowfall
with this mid level warm front. Generally speaking 1 to 4
inches across the area...less in the S and more in the Wrn ME
mtns. Behind the mid level front we lose saturation and precip
may change to drizzle or freezing drizzle depending on surface
temps. The higher terrain may keep enough saturation to continue
light snow. Any ice amounts will be light from the overnight.

The main concern this evening will be watching to see if mid
level temps are warm enough to start as a mix right away across
Srn NH. In addition...the moist and mild air moving into the
colder air mass may lead to some areas of dense fog. No advisory
has been issued...but Srn NH into coastal Wrn ME would be the
most likely areas to see dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front and another area of steady precipitation will be
approaching from the W Tue morning. I expect significant parts
of the forecast area to remain below freezing at this time. This
round of precipitation will likely be freezing rain and sleet
for much of the area...before gradually transitioning to rain.
This will occur most rapidly along the coast and across Srn
NH...where strong Sly winds aloft help shove the surface front
Nwd. The interior will likely hang on to frozen or freezing
precip until around 18z...when ageostrophic flow becomes more
SEly. Given the precip rates and more marginal temps...ice
accumulation will mainly stay around a tenth to two tenths of an
inch. Enough to make some roads icy...but unlikely to cause
significant disruption to the power grid.

The rainfall amounts could be enough to contribute to some rises
on area rivers. This could be enough to cause ice movement and
additional ice jam flooding. See the flood watch for more
information.

As warm front moves into coastal area...especially Midcoast
ME...some of the stronger winds aloft may mix down. A small
window of near 50 mph wind gusts are possible if the warm front
can make it appreciably onshore around RKD. A wind advisory has
been issued.

Cold front sweeps thru the area late Tue...mixing out the dug in
low level cold. Precip will quickly end from W to E...with
upslope flow contributing to snow showers in the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the
long wave pattern through day 10. The pattern remains progressive
and begins to amplify with time. A steady progression of troughs
and ridges across the forecast area will result in several sharp
swings in temperature between well below and well above normal
readings. In the dailies...low pressure and associated shortwave
impulse exits into the maritimes on Wednesday with lingering
upslope clouds and snow showers for the higher terrain. A second
shortwave impulse and reinforcing shot of cold air arrives for
Wednesday Night and Thursday. The cold begins to ease on Friday
as ridging and rising heights arrive. A warm front lifts north
across the area Friday night with a southerly flow and well above
normal temperatures for the weekend. The more progressive GFS was
discarded as an outlier with the approaching frontal system in
favor of the ECMWF/CMC-Global solutions which brings the front
and steadier band of precipitation across the forecast area late
Saturday Night and Sunday. Colder air filters into the area by
Monday behind this system along with a return to below normal
temperatures to start the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread MVFR and areas of IFR CIGs remain across
the forecast area in light NE to onshore flow. We are seeing a
break in precip at this time which will gradually fill in from
the W starting around 22-23z. CIGs will continue to lower as
warmer air aloft moves in. I expect widespread IFR or lower
conditions...with maybe HIE remaining MVFR to VFR in downsloping
this evening. Precip this evening is expected to be mainly
SN...transitioning to DZ or FZDZ behind the mid level warm front
between 03 and 06z depending on surface temp. Between 12 and 15z
Tue another area of precip will move in from the W. I expect
this will begin as a brief period of FZRA or PL before changing
to RA at all terminals...with CON and AUG most at risk of
hanging on to colder surface temps the longest. This is also
about the time strong winds aloft move overhead and lead to LLWS
conditions. Winds will be strong close to the surface so shear
will begin in the 1000 to 1500 ft range. Cold front sweeps thru
the region late Tue...and winds become Wly and conditions
improve to MVFR and VFR.

Long Term...

Wed...Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn. NW sfc wind gusting to 25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...NE flow over the waters will gradually become Sly
overnight as a warm front lift Nwd. Some patchy dense fog is
possible as that warmer air moves Nwd. Winds increase Tue...and
gales are likely over the outer waters and Penobscot Bay. Gale
warnings remain in effect. There is a chance gale force gusts
may occur over Casco Bay...but confidence was not high enough to
include in the gale warning. Winds become Wly behind the cold
front later Tue...and SCA conditions will continue overnight.

Long Term...

Wed - Sat...Small Craft conditions are likely...with gusts
approaching gale outside the bays.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern half of New
Hampshire as well as western Maine south of the mountains.
These areas are expected to get enough rainfall during the day
on Tuesday to cause ice movement and possible ice jams on area
rivers. This could lead to minor flooding especially near areas
already affected by ice jams...including the
Ashuelot...Piscataquog...Saco...and Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for MEZ023>028.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ027-028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for NHZ001-002-
     004-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for NHZ003-005-
     007>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Schwibs
AVIATION...Legro/Schwibs
MARINE...Legro/Schwibs




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221940
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
240 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Some light precipitation is expected today and tonight. Most of it
will be rain, but light icing is likely over interior high terrain
especially tonight into early Tuesday. A fast moving storm system
will bring a period of heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with
strong winds across SE New England. Blustery, dry and colder weather
follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next weekend.
A cold front may bring showers next Sunday or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 pm update...

We have issued a dense fog advisory for the high terrain of
interior southern New England. Looks like a classic situation
with light moist low level northeast flow...where visibility
will be reduced to one quarter of a mile at times tonight and may
persist into mid morning Tuesday. We may need to expand this
dense fog advisory further based on some support from
guidance...but wanted to start with the area that we were most
confident.

The rest of the region was covered with areas of fog and
drizzle. Temps hanging around 32 across portions of the high
terrain of interior MA...so some untreated roads/walkways may
remain icy. Also...we are watching parts of northeast MA for the
expansion of the winter weather advisory. Portsmouth NH dropped
from 37 to 32 between 16z and 18z...which is always a sign of
concern for northeast MA.

Other than spotty drizzle there was not much going on right now.
However...high resolution guidance shows another band of showers
moving across the region early this evening. This could be
problematic for portions of interior MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

A stalled front near or just N of the region will not move much
tonight as the low moves into the western Great Lakes. With the
colder air sitting across northern New England, noting the cold
air damming signature becoming better established tonight,
especially across N central and NW Mass. The bulk of the precip
will shift into northern New England, but will still see more
spotty light precip linger across the region. With the cold air
in place, and milder air working in aloft, will see periods of
light freezing rain continue. As mentioned above, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect from N Worcester county
westward through the night. May see up to 0.1" ice accretion
across portions of the Route 2 corridor mainly W of the
Merrimack Valley, where the best chance for freezing rain will
occur.

The warm front S of the region will start to lift N overnight,
so will see temps rise after midnight mainly toward daybreak
along the S coast, with readings holding around freezing well
inland.

Tuesday...

As the low pressure across the Great Lakes lifts into southern
Ontario, will see another shot of milder air lift northward.
This is also associated with a very strong low level jet, on the
order of 50-55 kt, which will move across portions of RI/SE Mass
during the morning and midday hours. Noting very good low level
mixing in place, along with an increasing pressure gradient as
the low to the W strengthens. Could see S winds gusting up to
35-45 mph Tuesday morning into midday as the jet passes.

Also noting a deep tropical moisture connection, as PWAT plume
of 1 to 1.25" works across the region. Will also see some good
instability ahead of the approaching cold front as total totals
rise to the lower 50s. Have also mentioned the chance for an
isolated thunderstorms as the front crosses the region from
midday through the afternoon hours.

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will cross the region
during the day, with the highest amounts (up to around 1 to 1.3
inches across N central and W Mass) moving across. There is a
risk for some urban and poor drainage flooding in any heavy
downpours. Could also see some issues along some of the mainstem
rivers, especially along the Connecticut River where the higher
precipitation is expected to fall. Have held off issuing a Flood
Watch at this point, but will continue to monitor this aspect
closely.

Will see temps reach to lower-mid 50s across central and
southern areas, but remain in the upper 40s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Big Picture...

Longwave pattern starts the period with a ridge over the Plains and
shallow troughs over the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. The Atlantic
trough lingers through the week.

Shortwave scale shows multiple troughs crossing the northern USA
during this period.  A small but sharp trough moves across New
England Tuesday night, while a broader trough sweeps across on
Thursday and Friday.

Height fields at 500 mb and thermal fields at 850 mb forecast at
below normal January levels Wednesday night through Friday. Fields
then climb above normal Saturday and Sunday. This supports a colder
than normal period Thursday-Friday, trending milder than normal over
the weekend.

Model mass fields and thermal fields are in agreement through
Friday, followed by differences upstream over the Plains over the
weekend. This brings high confidence to the forecast through Friday
and low-moderate confidence Saturday through Monday.

Details...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

Cold front moves well offshore while the parent surface low moves
off through Quebec. Dry slot moves up across New England Tuesday
night. With the upper trough and associated cold pool moving
overhead, we would expect some strato-cu during the day
Wednesday...more than any of the forecast guidance is showing. But
with PW values at 0.25 inch or less it may simply be too dry.

Mixed layer depth should reach between 900 and 925 mb. The
warmer/deeper mixing would support Wednesday highs in the low to mid
40s, while the colder/shallower mixing would support highs in the
mid 30s to around 40. The mixed layer also will contain 20-25 knot
winds, supporting similar daytime wind gusts.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds over the region.  Cold advection and a tighter
pressure gradient will mean a blustery day Thursday with gusts 25-30
knots. Thursday temps around -14C at 900 mb suggest max temps mainly
in the 20s. Temps climb a couple of degrees Friday, so expect Friday
max temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. With airmas dew points in the
single numbers but lingering northwest wind, expect nighttime lows
in the upper single numbers and teens.

Saturday through Monday...

High pressure shifts offshore and surface winds turn from the
southwest. This will bring milder air back to the region. As noted
above, the incoming airmass is forecast to be above normal. Max
temps should at least reach the 40s with some potential to reach the
50s. Another upper trough is currently timed for early next week,
led by an associated surface cold front . There are differences
in model timing of the trough. The GFS shows fropa on Tuesday,
the ECMWF shows Monday, and the GGEM shows Sunday. So there is
uncertainty in timing of the cold front. For now we will show
chance pops Sunday-Monday. Temperatures look to be warm enough
for any precipitation to be rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

This afternoon and tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR
conditions expected in showers and fog...some of the fog will be
dense. Pockets of -fzdz/-fzra possible across portions of
interior MA...especially high terrain. Southerly LLWS concern
increases overnight.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions may
improve to mainly IFR conditions by late morning/early afternoon
as the worst of the fog mixes out. However...roughly a 6 hour
band of heavy rain with perhaps an embedded t-storm or two will
work across the region on Tuesday. Activity should be mainly
offshore by 00z. Southwest wind gusts up to 40 knots expected
along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor during
the afternoon. LLWS will be a concern for the rest of the
region.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible early.
Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.

Today...
Light E-SE winds increase to around 10 kt during the day. Seas
build up to 2-3 ft. Visibility reduced to around 3 miles during
the afternoon in rain and fog.

Tonight...
Wind shift to SE-S during the night, with gusts increasing to
20-25 kt. Seas build to 3-5 ft on the outer waters after
midnight. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in rain and fog.

Tuesday...
Gale warning issued for all waters. S winds increase, gusting up
to 35-40 kt, highest from mid morning through the afternoon.
Seas build up to 6-9 ft. Visibility 1-3 miles in rain and fog.
Chance for isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers
early.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ004.
MA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ013-
     015>024.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002-004-008-
     009-012-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>006-
     008-026.
     Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     MAZ003-004.
RI...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ002>008.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Frank
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221845
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
145 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Some light precipitation is expected today and tonight. Most of it
will be rain, but light icing is likely over interior high terrain
especially tonight into early Tuesday. A fast moving storm system
will bring a period of heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with
strong winds across SE New England. Blustery, dry and colder weather
follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next weekend.
A cold front may bring showers by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

145 pm update...

We have issued a dense fog advisory for the high terrain of
interior southern New England. Looks like a classic situation
with light moist low level northeast flow...where visibility
will be reduced to one quarter of a mile at times tonight and may
persist into mid morning Tuesday. We may need to expand this
dense fog advisory further based on some support from
guidance...but wanted to start with the area that we were most
confident.

The rest of the region was covered with areas of fog and
drizzle. Temps hanging around 32 across portions of the high
terrain of interior MA...so some untreated roads/walkways may
remain icy. Also...we are watching parts of northeast MA for the
expansion of the winter weather advisory. Portsmouth NH dropped
from 37 to 32 between 16z and 18z...which is always a sign of
concern for northeast MA.

Other than spotty drizzle there was not much going on right now.
However...high resolution guidance shows another band of showers
moving across the region early this evening. This could be
problematic for portions of interior MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

A stalled front near or just N of the region will not move much
tonight as the low moves into the western Great Lakes. With the
colder air sitting across northern New England, noting the cold
air damming signature becoming better established tonight,
especially across N central and NW Mass. The bulk of the precip
will shift into northern New England, but will still see more
spotty light precip linger across the region. With the cold air
in place, and milder air working in aloft, will see periods of
light freezing rain continue. As mentioned above, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect from N Worcester county
westward through the night. May see up to 0.1" ice accretion
across portions of the Route 2 corridor mainly W of the
Merrimack Valley, where the best chance for freezing rain will
occur.

The warm front S of the region will start to lift N overnight,
so will see temps rise after midnight mainly toward daybreak
along the S coast, with readings holding around freezing well
inland.

Tuesday...

As the low pressure across the Great Lakes lifts into southern
Ontario, will see another shot of milder air lift northward.
This is also associated with a very strong low level jet, on the
order of 50-55 kt, which will move across portions of RI/SE Mass
during the morning and midday hours. Noting very good low level
mixing in place, along with an increasing pressure gradient as
the low to the W strengthens. Could see S winds gusting up to
35-45 mph Tuesday morning into midday as the jet passes.

Also noting a deep tropical moisture connection, as PWAT plume
of 1 to 1.25" works across the region. Will also see some good
instability ahead of the approaching cold front as total totals
rise to the lower 50s. Have also mentioned the chance for an
isolated thunderstorms as the front crosses the region from
midday through the afternoon hours.

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will cross the region
during the day, with the highest amounts (up to around 1 to 1.3
inches across N central and W Mass) moving across. There is a
risk for some urban and poor drainage flooding in any heavy
downpours. Could also see some issues along some of the mainstem
rivers, especially along the Connecticut River where the higher
precipitation is expected to fall. Have held off issuing a Flood
Watch at this point, but will continue to monitor this aspect
closely.

Will see temps reach to lower-mid 50s across central and
southern areas, but remain in the upper 40s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Blustery and colder Wed, and especially Thu/Fri, but dry
* Much milder next weekend with showers possible by Sunday

Tuesday night...

Cold front will be in the vicinity of the Cape/Islands Tue evening
then moving offshore. Some lingering showers are possible here
early, and a few rain to snow showers possible western MA in the
evening as mid level trough swings through. Otherwise, gradual
clearing will develop although some lower clouds may linger across
NW MA. Gusty west winds will develop overnight as low level cold
advection increases.

Wednesday through Friday...

Blustery and colder pattern as longwave trough develops over the NE
but mainly dry weather expected with dry column and subsidence. Near
normal temps Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri. Core of the
coldest air aloft on Thu with 850 mb temps near -15C. This will
result in highs Thu mainly in the 20s to near 30 with gusty winds
making it feel considerably colder, while Thu night wind chills drop
into the single numbers and subzero higher terrain. Temps recover
Fri as heights begin to rise and low level temps moderate but a cold
start will hold temps from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Return to milder airmass and well above normal temps as high pres
moves offshore and mid level ridge builds north along the east
coast. 850 mb temp anomalies 1-2SD and EPS/GEFS ensembles have
fairly high probs of 50s in the coastal plain by Sun. Deterministic
GFS looks too fast with next approaching trough and not supported by
majority of GEFS members so we leaned toward slower ECWMF solution
given downstream ridging in place over the western Atlantic. Next
chance of showers assocd with the mid level trough and attending
cold front should hold off until Sunday or possibly Sat night. Very
low risk of some icing distant interior if precip comes in Sat night
but any freezing precip would probably be localized and this is
a very low probability.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

This afternoon and tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR
conditions expected in showers and fog...some of the fog will be
dense. Pockets of -fzdz/-fzra possible across portions of
interior MA...especially high terrain. Southerly LLWS concern
increases overnight.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions may
improve to mainly IFR conditions by late morning/early afternoon
as the worst of the fog mixes out. However...roughly a 6 hour
band of heavy rain with perhaps an embedded t-storm or two will
work across the region on Tuesday. Activity should be mainly
offshore by 00z. Southwest wind gusts up to 40 knots expected
along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor during
the afternoon. LLWS will be a concern for the rest of the
region.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR/IFR possible in the
evening across Cape/Islands. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA in the evening.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.

Today...
Light E-SE winds increase to around 10 kt during the day. Seas
build up to 2-3 ft. Visibility reduced to around 3 miles during
the afternoon in rain and fog.

Tonight...
Wind shift to SE-S during the night, with gusts increasing to
20-25 kt. Seas build to 3-5 ft on the outer waters after
midnight. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in rain and fog.

Tuesday...
Gale warning issued for all waters. S winds increase, gusting up
to 35-40 kt, highest from mid morning through the afternoon.
Seas build up to 6-9 ft. Visibility 1-3 miles in rain and fog.
Chance for isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ004.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002-004-008-
     009-012-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>004-
     008-026.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...Frank/KJC
MARINE...KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221509
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1009 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Some light precipitation is expected today and tonight. Most of it
will be rain, but light icing is likely over interior high terrain
especially tonight into early Tuesday. A fast moving storm system
will bring a period of heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with
strong winds across SE New England. Blustery, dry and colder weather
follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next weekend.
A cold front may bring showers by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1010 am update...

Weak warm advection over the shallow cool dome in place has
resulted in a band of rain showers sweeping across the region
this morning. While most of the precipitation was just
liquid...temps generally between 32 and 34 have resulted in some
slippery roads/walkways across parts of interior MA especially
in the high terrain. Despite marginal temperatures...paved
surfaces are still cold so some slick spots possible where even
temps are above freezing.

Batch of steady rain showers should exit the region by early
afternoon...but a few spot showers and pockets of drizzle along
with areas of fog will persist. May see threat for showers
increase toward evening...especially in our western zones as
forcing/deeper moisture moves into the region.

Temperatures will mainly hold in the 30s and there will
continue to be the threat for some icy travel across interior
MA...especially across the high terrain. Therefore...opted to
begin winter weather advisory now to cover this potential. Still
monitoring the need to expand advisory across interior
northeast MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

A stalled front near or just N of the region will not move much
tonight as the low moves into the western Great Lakes. With the
colder air sitting across northern New England, noting the cold
air damming signature becoming better established tonight,
especially across N central and NW Mass. The bulk of the precip
will shift into northern New England, but will still see more
spotty light precip linger across the region. With the cold air
in place, and milder air working in aloft, will see periods of
light freezing rain continue. As mentioned above, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect from N Worcester county
westward through the night. May see up to 0.1" ice accretion
across portions of the Route 2 corridor mainly W of the
Merrimack Valley, where the best chance for freezing rain will
occur.

The warm front S of the region will start to lift N overnight,
so will see temps rise after midnight mainly toward daybreak
along the S coast, with readings holding around freezing well
inland.

Tuesday...

As the low pressure across the Great Lakes lifts into southern
Ontario, will see another shot of milder air lift northward.
This is also associated with a very strong low level jet, on the
order of 50-55 kt, which will move across portions of RI/SE Mass
during the morning and midday hours. Noting very good low level
mixing in place, along with an increasing pressure gradient as
the low to the W strengthens. Could see S winds gusting up to
35-45 mph Tuesday morning into midday as the jet passes.

Also noting a deep tropical moisture connection, as PWAT plume
of 1 to 1.25" works across the region. Will also see some good
instability ahead of the approaching cold front as total totals
rise to the lower 50s. Have also mentioned the chance for an
isolated thunderstorms as the front crosses the region from
midday through the afternoon hours.

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will cross the region
during the day, with the highest amounts (up to around 1 to 1.3
inches across N central and W Mass) moving across. There is a
risk for some urban and poor drainage flooding in any heavy
downpours. Could also see some issues along some of the mainstem
rivers, especially along the Connecticut River where the higher
precipitation is expected to fall. Have held off issuing a Flood
Watch at this point, but will continue to monitor this aspect
closely.

Will see temps reach to lower-mid 50s across central and
southern areas, but remain in the upper 40s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Blustery and colder Wed, and especially Thu/Fri, but dry
* Much milder next weekend with showers possible by Sunday

Tuesday night...

Cold front will be in the vicinity of the Cape/Islands Tue evening
then moving offshore. Some lingering showers are possible here
early, and a few rain to snow showers possible western MA in the
evening as mid level trough swings through. Otherwise, gradual
clearing will develop although some lower clouds may linger across
NW MA. Gusty west winds will develop overnight as low level cold
advection increases.

Wednesday through Friday...

Blustery and colder pattern as longwave trough develops over the NE
but mainly dry weather expected with dry column and subsidence. Near
normal temps Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri. Core of the
coldest air aloft on Thu with 850 mb temps near -15C. This will
result in highs Thu mainly in the 20s to near 30 with gusty winds
making it feel considerably colder, while Thu night wind chills drop
into the single numbers and subzero higher terrain. Temps recover
Fri as heights begin to rise and low level temps moderate but a cold
start will hold temps from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Return to milder airmass and well above normal temps as high pres
moves offshore and mid level ridge builds north along the east
coast. 850 mb temp anomalies 1-2SD and EPS/GEFS ensembles have
fairly high probs of 50s in the coastal plain by Sun. Deterministic
GFS looks too fast with next approaching trough and not supported by
majority of GEFS members so we leaned toward slower ECWMF solution
given downstream ridging in place over the western Atlantic. Next
chance of showers assocd with the mid level trough and attending
cold front should hold off until Sunday or possibly Sat night. Very
low risk of some icing distant interior if precip comes in Sat night
but any freezing precip would probably be localized and this is
a very low probability.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate confidence. Mainly IFR with localized LIFR
conditions in areas of fog, drizzle and showers. Localized
-FZRA/FZDZ remains possible across parts of interior
 MA...especially the high terrain.

Tonight...Low to Moderate confidence.
MVFR-IFR CIGS for most areas. Rain most places with -FZRA
across N central and NW Mass as winds shift to E- there. Across
S areas, winds shift to S and increase after midnight, with
CIGS lifting to VFR but MVFR-IFR VSBYS linger in patchy fog.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mix of conditions from locally VFR to start across N CT/RI/SE
Mass, ranging to IFR across N central and W Mass. Conditions
lower to MVFR-IFR as cold front approaches, bringing low clouds
and areas of locally heavy rain. Low chance of TSRA. Depending
upon the timing of the cold front, conditions may improve to VFR
across western areas during the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR/IFR possible in the
evening across Cape/Islands. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA in the evening.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.

Today...
Light E-SE winds increase to around 10 kt during the day. Seas
build up to 2-3 ft. Visibility reduced to around 3 miles during
the afternoon in rain and fog.

Tonight...
Wind shift to SE-S during the night, with gusts increasing to
20-25 kt. Seas build to 3-5 ft on the outer waters after
midnight. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in rain and fog.

Tuesday...
Gale warning issued for all waters. S winds increase, gusting up
to 35-40 kt, highest from mid morning through the afternoon.
Seas build up to 6-9 ft. Visibility 1-3 miles in rain and fog.
Chance for isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>004-
     008-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...Frank/EVT/KJC
MARINE...EVT/KJC
HYDROLOGY...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221443 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
943 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south through northern New England today
with colder temperatures returning. Some light snow is expected
as well, with the front lifting back north as a warm front
tonight and Tuesday. As it does so, expect a period of freezing
rain for most areas before temperatures warm. As the low moves
away Tuesday evening a cold front will move across the area from
west to east with colder temperatures expected Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Light onshore flow and weak lift is creating some light
precip across the forecast area...especially for Ern zones.
Without much saturation at this point...a lot of this is falling
as drizzle and freezing drizzle. Gradually as the column
saturates...this will transition to a light snow. A SPS has been
issued for patchy freezing drizzle...otherwise no major changes
to the forecast beyond early this afternoon.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A cold front is moving south through the area this morning with
some light snow falling along and just behind this front across
northern New Hampshire and central Maine. Further south, some
light warm advection precipitation has moved into southern New
England. Expect the cold front to continue moving south and into
southern New England today with temperatures falling behind it.
There exists a pretty strong temperature gradient across this
boundary in northern Maine and Quebec, and some models even show
temperatures falling into the teens this afternoon across much
of western Maine. Have taken this into account with the
temperature forecast today, but did not go quite that extreme.
Meanwhile, light warm advection snowfall should continue on and
off across the area today with intensity picking up just a bit
this afternoon. An inch, maybe two inches, of snow is possible
with this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
More organized area of warm advection snowfall expected to move
north through the area tonight as the front tries to lift back
north as a warm front. Cold air damming will hold in tough at
the surface, so the surface front should get hung up near the
New Hampshire/Massachusetts border while the front aloft lifts
northward. The majority of the precipitation should fall north
of this aloft front primarily in the form of snow, with
temperatures aloft warming behind the front as the steadier
precipitation briefly ends. Could see some light freezing
drizzle or freezing rain within the cold air dammed area by
morning once the snow has ended.

Primary area of low pressure is moving through the Saint
Lawrence Valley on Tuesday, but expect secondary low pressure to
form along the stalled surface warm front and move east during
the day spreading another round of steadier precipitation across
the area. While some additional snow is possible in the
northern parts of the forecast area, most of the area will see
this fall as freezing rain or rain depending on ground level
temperatures.

Models continue to struggle a bit with this cold air damming,
but some of the higher resolution models are more successful in
showing this. Confidence is high that the cold air damming will
occur as the low level easterly flow north of the warm front
will keep the cold air shoved in place east of the mountains.
There is some doubt as to what the temperature will be within
the dammed area, but observed dewpoints within the cold air mass
over northern Maine and southern Quebec this morning are near
zero, so there should be enough cold/dry air to support
temperatures below freezing as the heavier precipitation arrives
Tuesday morning. However, as the rain freezes it releases heat
and will allow low level temperatures to warm fairly quickly up
to around the freezing mark within the dammed area. Meanwhile,
the surface warm front will lift north into southern New
Hampshire fairly early in the morning and push onshore of the
Maine coastline as well with temperatures in the 40s and 50s
behind it. To the west of the mountains, downsloping should
allow the temperature to warm above freezing. It is the area
from Conway to Skowhegan that will have the greatest threat of
freezing rain, though we do expect the ice to have difficulty
sticking to roads and trees after the overnight snowfall,
instead forming a crust on top of the snow and icing any cleared
areas.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire
forecast area, with the timing extending until noon for western,
central, and southern New Hampshire as well as the Maine
coastline as temperatures are expected to warm above freezing by
then. Further inland the advisories continue until 6 PM as the
cold air damming will keep the threat for freezing rain in these
areas longer. Further north there will be greater snowfall
totals including the possibility of more than 6 inches total,
however confidence is low on seeing widespread 6+ inches and
thus a Warning has not been issued.

As low pressure moves east across the area it will pull a cold
front across along with it. While temperatures behind the front
do fall, the areas that were dammed ahead of the front will
actually see the temperature warm a bit behind the front before
cooling later in the night. The majority of the precipitation
will fall along and ahead of the front while some lingering
showers (becoming snow showers) are possible behind the
departing low Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models all agree on Arctic high pressure building southeast
across the region Wed through Fri and becoming centered over New
England by Fri night. Northwest winds will be gusty Wed and Thu
but diminish on Fri. A return to much colder temps will occur
for this time period. In the mountains widely scattered snow
showers are possible while elsewhere dry conditions are
expected. On Saturday, in response to a digging long wave trof
over the upper midwest, the Arctic ridge of high pressure moves
well off the coast allowing a warmer southwest flow to develop
at the surface as well as aloft. Mixed precipitation will move
into the region Sat night and into Sun as the base of the upper
trof progresses east. A cold front will arrive sometime Sunday.
Generally accepted the superblend temps/POPs for the outlook
period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term... Expect ceilings to lower as the day goes on with
some light snow possible at all airports. Conditions gradually
become IFR by tonight as precipitation becomes heavier and
ceilings lower. Expect a period of freezing rain especially east
of the mountains early on Tuesday, with temperatures warming
above freezing in southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine
during the morning. A cold front crosses the area Tuesday
evening and should help end the prolonged IFR conditions with
the exceptions of the areas north of the mountains.

Long Term...VFR conditions Wed through Fri except briefly MVFR
conditions in the mountains in any snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front drops south across the waters tonight
with a northeast wind developing behind it. This front lifts
back north as a warm front tonight into Tuesday with low
pressure moving east along it. Expect a southerly gale on
Tuesday as the low pressure moves along the front and drags a
cold front eastward along with it.

Long Term...SCA conditions are expected Wed through Fri due to a
strong northwest flow as Arctic high pressure builds Southeast
across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern half of New
Hampshire as well as the coastal plain of Maine. These areas are
expected to get significant liquid precipitation during the day
on Tuesday which may cause ice movement and possible ice jams on
area rivers. This could lead to minor flooding especially near
areas affected by ice jams.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST
     Tuesday for MEZ023>028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for NHZ001-002-004-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST
     Tuesday for NHZ003-005-007>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221203
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Some light precipitation is expected today and tonight. Most of it
will be rain, but light icing is likely over interior high terrain
especially tonight into early Tuesday. A fast moving storm system
will bring a period of heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with
strong winds across SE New England. Blustery, dry and colder weather
follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next weekend.
A cold front may bring showers by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM update...
Area of light precip north of a stalled frontal boundary is
moving across SNE this morning. Ptype mainly rain south of the
Pike, but to the north low level cold air may produce pockets of
light freezing rain or sleet. Even some snow possible across far
NE MA where colder air a bit deeper. Precip exits by midday and
should see a lull into the afternoon before another round of
precip moves in later today. Ptype mostly rain with this second
batch as temps aloft are warming, but hi-res guidance showing
some shallow cold air becoming established over higher terrain
where some freezing rain likely. This may impact the evening
commute across portion of interior northern MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

A stalled front near or just N of the region will not move much
tonight as the low moves into the western Great Lakes. With the
colder air sitting across northern New England, noting the cold
air damming signature becoming better established tonight,
especially across N central and NW Mass. The bulk of the precip
will shift into northern New England, but will still see more
spotty light precip linger across the region. With the cold air
in place, and milder air working in aloft, will see periods of
light freezing rain continue. As mentioned above, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect from N Worcester county
westward through the night. May see up to 0.1" ice accretion
across portions of the Route 2 corridor mainly W of the
Merrimack Valley, where the best chance for freezing rain will
occur.

The warm front S of the region will start to lift N overnight,
so will see temps rise after midnight mainly toward daybreak
along the S coast, with readings holding around freezing well
inland.

Tuesday...

As the low pressure across the Great Lakes lifts into southern
Ontario, will see another shot of milder air lift northward.
This is also associated with a very strong low level jet, on the
order of 50-55 kt, which will move across portions of RI/SE Mass
during the morning and midday hours. Noting very good low level
mixing in place, along with an increasing pressure gradient as
the low to the W strengthens. Could see S winds gusting up to
35-45 mph Tuesday morning into midday as the jet passes.

Also noting a deep tropical moisture connection, as PWAT plume
of 1 to 1.25" works across the region. Will also see some good
instability ahead of the approaching cold front as total totals
rise to the lower 50s. Have also mentioned the chance for an
isolated thunderstorms as the front crosses the region from
midday through the afternoon hours.

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will cross the region
during the day, with the highest amounts (up to around 1 to 1.3
inches across N central and W Mass) moving across. There is a
risk for some urban and poor drainage flooding in any heavy
downpours. Could also see some issues along some of the mainstem
rivers, especially along the Connecticut River where the higher
precipitation is expected to fall. Have held off issuing a Flood
Watch at this point, but will continue to monitor this aspect
closely.

Will see temps reach to lower-mid 50s across central and
southern areas, but remain in the upper 40s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Blustery and colder Wed, and especially Thu/Fri, but dry
* Much milder next weekend with showers possible by Sunday

Tuesday night...

Cold front will be in the vicinity of the Cape/Islands Tue evening
then moving offshore. Some lingering showers are possible here
early, and a few rain to snow showers possible western MA in the
evening as mid level trough swings through. Otherwise, gradual
clearing will develop although some lower clouds may linger across
NW MA. Gusty west winds will develop overnight as low level cold
advection increases.

Wednesday through Friday...

Blustery and colder pattern as longwave trough develops over the NE
but mainly dry weather expected with dry column and subsidence. Near
normal temps Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri. Core of the
coldest air aloft on Thu with 850 mb temps near -15C. This will
result in highs Thu mainly in the 20s to near 30 with gusty winds
making it feel considerably colder, while Thu night wind chills drop
into the single numbers and subzero higher terrain. Temps recover
Fri as heights begin to rise and low level temps moderate but a cold
start will hold temps from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Return to milder airmass and well above normal temps as high pres
moves offshore and mid level ridge builds north along the east
coast. 850 mb temp anomalies 1-2SD and EPS/GEFS ensembles have
fairly high probs of 50s in the coastal plain by Sun. Deterministic
GFS looks too fast with next approaching trough and not supported by
majority of GEFS members so we leaned toward slower ECWMF solution
given downstream ridging in place over the western Atlantic. Next
chance of showers assocd with the mid level trough and attending
cold front should hold off until Sunday or possibly Sat night. Very
low risk of some icing distant interior if precip comes in Sat night
but any freezing precip would probably be localized and this is
a very low probability.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate confidence.
Mainly IFR/MVFR conditions with patchy fog developing. Area of
light precip exits late morning with another round moving in
mid/late afternoon. Pockets of FZRA interior northern MA.

Tonight...Low to Moderate confidence.
MVFR-IFR CIGS for most areas. Rain most places with -FZRA
across N central and NW Mass as winds shift to E- there. Across
S areas, winds shift to S and increase after midnight, with
CIGS lifting to VFR but MVFR-IFR VSBYS linger in patchy fog.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mix of conditions from locally VFR to start across N CT/RI/SE
Mass, ranging to IFR across N central and W Mass. Conditions
lower to MVFR-IFR as cold front approaches, bringing low clouds
and areas of locally heavy rain. Low chance of TSRA. Depending
upon the timing of the cold front, conditions may improve to VFR
across western areas during the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR/IFR possible in the
evening across Cape/Islands. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA in the evening.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.

Today...
Light E-SE winds increase to around 10 kt during the day. Seas
build up to 2-3 ft. Visibility reduced to around 3 miles during
the afternoon in rain and fog.

Tonight...
Wind shift to SE-S during the night, with gusts increasing to
20-25 kt. Seas build to 3-5 ft on the outer waters after
midnight. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in rain and fog.

Tuesday...
Gale warning issued for all waters. S winds increase, gusting up
to 35-40 kt, highest from mid morning through the afternoon.
Seas build up to 6-9 ft. Visibility 1-3 miles in rain and fog.
Chance for isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
     Tuesday for MAZ002>004-008-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221155
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
655 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south through northern New England today
with colder temperatures returning. Some light snow is expected
as well, with the front lifting back north as a warm front
tonight and Tuesday. As it does so, expect a period of freezing
rain for most areas before temperatures warm. As the low moves
away Tuesday evening a cold front will move across the area from
west to east with colder temperatures expected Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
7AM UPDATE...
Colder air is moving in from the northeast this morning with
some light snow falling behind it. Some light drizzle or
freezing drizzle has been observed in far southern New Hampshire
and southwest Maine. As cold air continues to move in, expect
precipitation type to favor snow as the day goes on, with some
light accumulations possible.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A cold front is moving south through the area this morning with
some light snow falling along and just behind this front across
northern New Hampshire and central Maine. Further south, some
light warm advection precipitation has moved into southern New
England. Expect the cold front to continue moving south and into
southern New England today with temperatures falling behind it.
There exists a pretty strong temperature gradient across this
boundary in northern Maine and Quebec, and some models even show
temperatures falling into the teens this afternoon across much
of western Maine. Have taken this into account with the
temperature forecast today, but did not go quite that extreme.
Meanwhile, light warm advection snowfall should continue on and
off across the area today with intensity picking up just a bit
this afternoon. An inch, maybe two inches, of snow is possible
with this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
More organized area of warm advection snowfall expected to move
north through the area tonight as the front tries to lift back
north as a warm front. Cold air damming will hold in tough at
the surface, so the surface front should get hung up near the
New Hampshire/Massachusetts border while the front aloft lifts
northward. The majority of the precipitation should fall north
of this aloft front primarily in the form of snow, with
temperatures aloft warming behind the front as the steadier
precipitation briefly ends. Could see some light freezing
drizzle or freezing rain within the cold air dammed area by
morning once the snow has ended.

Primary area of low pressure is moving through the Saint
Lawrence Valley on Tuesday, but expect secondary low pressure to
form along the stalled surface warm front and move east during
the day spreading another round of steadier precipitation across
the area. While some additional snow is possible in the
northern parts of the forecast area, most of the area will see
this fall as freezing rain or rain depending on ground level
temperatures.

Models continue to struggle a bit with this cold air damming,
but some of the higher resolution models are more successful in
showing this. Confidence is high that the cold air damming will
occur as the low level easterly flow north of the warm front
will keep the cold air shoved in place east of the mountains.
There is some doubt as to what the temperature will be within
the dammed area, but observed dewpoints within the cold air mass
over northern Maine and southern Quebec this morning are near
zero, so there should be enough cold/dry air to support
temperatures below freezing as the heavier precipitation arrives
Tuesday morning. However, as the rain freezes it releases heat
and will allow low level temperatures to warm fairly quickly up
to around the freezing mark within the dammed area. Meanwhile,
the surface warm front will lift north into southern New
Hampshire fairly early in the morning and push onshore of the
Maine coastline as well with temperatures in the 40s and 50s
behind it. To the west of the mountains, downsloping should
allow the temperature to warm above freezing. It is the area
from Conway to Skowhegan that will have the greatest threat of
freezing rain, though we do expect the ice to have difficulty
sticking to roads and trees after the overnight snowfall,
instead forming a crust on top of the snow and icing any cleared
areas.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire
forecast area, with the timing extending until noon for western,
central, and southern New Hampshire as well as the Maine
coastline as temperatures are expected to warm above freezing by
then. Further inland the advisories continue until 6 PM as the
cold air damming will keep the threat for freezing rain in these
areas longer. Further north there will be greater snowfall
totals including the possibility of more than 6 inches total,
however confidence is low on seeing widespread 6+ inches and
thus a Warning has not been issued.

As low pressure moves east across the area it will pull a cold
front across along with it. While temperatures behind the front
do fall, the areas that were dammed ahead of the front will
actually see the temperature warm a bit behind the front before
cooling later in the night. The majority of the precipitation
will fall along and ahead of the front while some lingering
showers (becoming snow showers) are possible behind the
departing low Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models all agree on Arctic high pressure building southeast
across the region Wed through Fri and becoming centered over New
England by Fri night. Northwest winds will be gusty Wed and Thu
but diminish on Fri. A return to much colder temps will occur
for this time period. In the mountains widely scattered snow
showers are possible while elsewhere dry conditions are
expected. On Saturday, in response to a digging long wave trof
over the upper midwest, the Arctic ridge of high pressure moves
well off the coast allowing a warmer southwest flow to develop
at the surface as well as aloft. Mixed precipitation will move
into the region Sat night and into Sun as the base of the upper
trof progresses east. A cold front will arrive sometime Sunday.
Generally accepted the superblend temps/POPs for the outlook
period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term... Expect ceilings to lower as the day goes on with
some light snow possible at all airports. Conditions gradually
become IFR by tonight as precipitation becomes heavier and
ceilings lower. Expect a period of freezing rain especially east
of the mountains early on Tuesday, with temperatures warming
above freezing in southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine
during the morning. A cold front crosses the area Tuesday
evening and should help end the prolonged IFR conditions with
the exceptions of the areas north of the mountains.

Long Term...VFR conditions Wed through Fri except briefly MVFR
conditions in the mountains in any snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front drops south across the waters tonight
with a northeast wind developing behind it. This front lifts
back north as a warm front tonight into Tuesday with low
pressure moving east along it. Expect a southerly gale on
Tuesday as the low pressure moves along the front and drags a
cold front eastward along with it.

Long Term...SCA conditions are expected Wed through Fri due to a
strong northwest flow as Arctic high pressure builds Southeast
across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern half of New
Hampshire as well as the coastal plain of Maine. These areas are
expected to get significant liquid precipitation during the day
on Tuesday which may cause ice movement and possible ice jams on
area rivers. This could lead to minor flooding especially near
areas affected by ice jams.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST
     Tuesday for MEZ023>028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for NHZ001-002-004-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST
     Tuesday for NHZ003-005-007>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Marine




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221053
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
553 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Some light precipitation is expected today and tonight. Most of it
will be rain, but light icing is likely over interior high terrain
especially tonight into early Tuesday. A fast moving storm system
will bring a period of heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with
strong winds across SE New England. Blustery, dry and colder weather
follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next weekend.
A cold front may bring showers by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A warm front is slowly pushing NE as it weakens early this
morning. This, along with cold high pressure across Quebec at
09Z has kept low level cold air to remain across central and
northern areas. This has produced spotty light rain along with
pockets of freezing rain and sleet. However, where the steadier
precip has fallen, it has dragged some of the milder air aloft
down to the surface, allowing temps to rise to at or above
freezing across the central and southern CT valley eastward into
E Mass, though still noting some temps hovering around freezing
even on Cape Cod with calm winds.

Continue to see a zonal flow aloft as cutoff H5 low pressure
sits across the central plains states early this morning. As the
large Canadian high shifts E today, surface low pressure will
lift to the Great Lakes. The cyclonic circulation around this
deepening low will bring winds around to S-SE during the day.
Will still see some overrunning precip work in across the
region, but temps will continue to slowly rise during the day
with any leftover mixed precip to change over to rain by mid
morning. Will see light rainfall today, with around 0.1 inches
or so of precip to fall. Expect highs to only reach the
mid and upper 30s across central and N Mass, ranging to the
lower 40s further S.

The big question will be whether more freezing precip will
develop during this afternoon across N central and W Mass as the
front remains stationary close to those locations. At this
point, it does look like there will be some light freezing rain
developing again during the afternoon and into the evening as
winds back to E-SE by evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued from this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Tonight...

A stalled front near or just N of the region will not move much
tonight as the low moves into the western Great Lakes. With the
colder air sitting across northern New England, noting the cold
air damming signature becoming better established tonight,
especially across N central and NW Mass. The bulk of the precip
will shift into northern New England, but will still see more
spotty light precip linger across the region. With the cold air
in place, and milder air working in aloft, will see periods of
light freezing rain continue. As mentioned above, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect from N Worcester county
westward through the night. May see up to 0.1" ice accretion
across portions of the Route 2 corridor mainly W of the
Merrimack Valley, where the best chance for freezing rain will
occur.

The warm front S of the region will start to lift N overnight,
so will see temps rise after midnight mainly toward daybreak
along the S coast, with readings holding around freezing well
inland.

Tuesday...

As the low pressure across the Great Lakes lifts into southern
Ontario, will see another shot of milder air lift northward.
This is also associated with a very strong low level jet, on the
order of 50-55 kt, which will move across portions of RI/SE Mass
during the morning and midday hours. Noting very good low level
mixing in place, along with an increasing pressure gradient as
the low to the W strengthens. Could see S winds gusting up to
35-45 mph Tuesday morning into midday as the jet passes.

Also noting a deep tropical moisture connection, as PWAT plume
of 1 to 1.25" works across the region. Will also see some good
instability ahead of the approaching cold front as total totals
rise to the lower 50s. Have also mentioned the chance for an
isolated thunderstorms as the front crosses the region from
midday through the afternoon hours.

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will cross the region
during the day, with the highest amounts (up to around 1 to 1.3
inches across N central and W Mass) moving across. There is a
risk for some urban and poor drainage flooding in any heavy
downpours. Could also see some issues along some of the mainstem
rivers, especially along the Connecticut River where the higher
precipitation is expected to fall. Have held off issuing a Flood
Watch at this point, but will continue to monitor this aspect
closely.

Will see temps reach to lower-mid 50s across central and
southern areas, but remain in the upper 40s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Blustery and colder Wed, and especially Thu/Fri, but dry
* Much milder next weekend with showers possible by Sunday

Tuesday night...

Cold front will be in the vicinity of the Cape/Islands Tue evening
then moving offshore. Some lingering showers are possible here
early, and a few rain to snow showers possible western MA in the
evening as mid level trough swings through. Otherwise, gradual
clearing will develop although some lower clouds may linger across
NW MA. Gusty west winds will develop overnight as low level cold
advection increases.

Wednesday through Friday...

Blustery and colder pattern as longwave trough develops over the NE
but mainly dry weather expected with dry column and subsidence. Near
normal temps Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri. Core of the
coldest air aloft on Thu with 850 mb temps near -15C. This will
result in highs Thu mainly in the 20s to near 30 with gusty winds
making it feel considerably colder, while Thu night wind chills drop
into the single numbers and subzero higher terrain. Temps recover
Fri as heights begin to rise and low level temps moderate but a cold
start will hold temps from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Return to milder airmass and well above normal temps as high pres
moves offshore and mid level ridge builds north along the east
coast. 850 mb temp anomalies 1-2SD and EPS/GEFS ensembles have
fairly high probs of 50s in the coastal plain by Sun. Deterministic
GFS looks too fast with next approaching trough and not supported by
majority of GEFS members so we leaned toward slower ECWMF solution
given downstream ridging in place over the western Atlantic. Next
chance of showers assocd with the mid level trough and attending
cold front should hold off until Sunday or possibly Sat night. Very
low risk of some icing distant interior if precip comes in Sat night
but any freezing precip would probably be localized and this is
a very low probability.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.
CIGS lowering to MVFR-IFR by 12Z across central and western
areas. Noting spotty light mix of -RA/-SN/-FZRA mainly across
the E slopes of the Berkshires to N Worcester county and the
Merrimack valley through daybreak.

Today...Moderate confidence.
Mainly IFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS. Increasing chance of -RA through
the day, with chance for -FZRA developing across N central and
NW Mass by late afternoon. Light winds shift to E-SE by evening.

Tonight...Low to Moderate confidence.
MVFR-IFR CIGS for most areas. Rain most places with -FZRA
across N central and NW Mass as winds shift to E- there. Across
S areas, winds shift to S and increase after midnight, with
CIGS lifting to VFR but MVFR-IFR VSBYS linger in patchy fog.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mix of conditions from locally VFR to start across N CT/RI/SE
Mass, ranging to IFR across N central and W Mass. Conditions
lower to MVFR-IFR as cold front approaches, bringing low clouds
and areas of locally heavy rain. Low chance of TSRA. Depending
upon the timing of the cold front, conditions may improve to VFR
across western areas during the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR/IFR possible in the
evening across Cape/Islands. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA in the evening.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.

Today...
Light E-SE winds increase to around 10 kt during the day. Seas
build up to 2-3 ft. Visibility reduced to around 3 miles during
the afternoon in rain and fog.

Tonight...
Wind shift to SE-S during the night, with gusts increasing to
20-25 kt. Seas build to 3-5 ft on the outer waters after
midnight. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in rain and fog.

Tuesday...
Gale warning issued for all waters. S winds increase, gusting up
to 35-40 kt, highest from mid morning through the afternoon.
Seas build up to 6-9 ft. Visibility 1-3 miles in rain and fog.
Chance for isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
     Tuesday for MAZ002>004-008-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221053
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
553 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Some light precipitation is expected today and tonight. Most of it
will be rain, but light icing is likely over interior high terrain
especially tonight into early Tuesday. A fast moving storm system
will bring a period of heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with
strong winds across SE New England. Blustery, dry and colder weather
follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next weekend.
A cold front may bring showers by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A warm front is slowly pushing NE as it weakens early this
morning. This, along with cold high pressure across Quebec at
09Z has kept low level cold air to remain across central and
northern areas. This has produced spotty light rain along with
pockets of freezing rain and sleet. However, where the steadier
precip has fallen, it has dragged some of the milder air aloft
down to the surface, allowing temps to rise to at or above
freezing across the central and southern CT valley eastward into
E Mass, though still noting some temps hovering around freezing
even on Cape Cod with calm winds.

Continue to see a zonal flow aloft as cutoff H5 low pressure
sits across the central plains states early this morning. As the
large Canadian high shifts E today, surface low pressure will
lift to the Great Lakes. The cyclonic circulation around this
deepening low will bring winds around to S-SE during the day.
Will still see some overrunning precip work in across the
region, but temps will continue to slowly rise during the day
with any leftover mixed precip to change over to rain by mid
morning. Will see light rainfall today, with around 0.1 inches
or so of precip to fall. Expect highs to only reach the
mid and upper 30s across central and N Mass, ranging to the
lower 40s further S.

The big question will be whether more freezing precip will
develop during this afternoon across N central and W Mass as the
front remains stationary close to those locations. At this
point, it does look like there will be some light freezing rain
developing again during the afternoon and into the evening as
winds back to E-SE by evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued from this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Tonight...

A stalled front near or just N of the region will not move much
tonight as the low moves into the western Great Lakes. With the
colder air sitting across northern New England, noting the cold
air damming signature becoming better established tonight,
especially across N central and NW Mass. The bulk of the precip
will shift into northern New England, but will still see more
spotty light precip linger across the region. With the cold air
in place, and milder air working in aloft, will see periods of
light freezing rain continue. As mentioned above, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect from N Worcester county
westward through the night. May see up to 0.1" ice accretion
across portions of the Route 2 corridor mainly W of the
Merrimack Valley, where the best chance for freezing rain will
occur.

The warm front S of the region will start to lift N overnight,
so will see temps rise after midnight mainly toward daybreak
along the S coast, with readings holding around freezing well
inland.

Tuesday...

As the low pressure across the Great Lakes lifts into southern
Ontario, will see another shot of milder air lift northward.
This is also associated with a very strong low level jet, on the
order of 50-55 kt, which will move across portions of RI/SE Mass
during the morning and midday hours. Noting very good low level
mixing in place, along with an increasing pressure gradient as
the low to the W strengthens. Could see S winds gusting up to
35-45 mph Tuesday morning into midday as the jet passes.

Also noting a deep tropical moisture connection, as PWAT plume
of 1 to 1.25" works across the region. Will also see some good
instability ahead of the approaching cold front as total totals
rise to the lower 50s. Have also mentioned the chance for an
isolated thunderstorms as the front crosses the region from
midday through the afternoon hours.

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will cross the region
during the day, with the highest amounts (up to around 1 to 1.3
inches across N central and W Mass) moving across. There is a
risk for some urban and poor drainage flooding in any heavy
downpours. Could also see some issues along some of the mainstem
rivers, especially along the Connecticut River where the higher
precipitation is expected to fall. Have held off issuing a Flood
Watch at this point, but will continue to monitor this aspect
closely.

Will see temps reach to lower-mid 50s across central and
southern areas, but remain in the upper 40s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Blustery and colder Wed, and especially Thu/Fri, but dry
* Much milder next weekend with showers possible by Sunday

Tuesday night...

Cold front will be in the vicinity of the Cape/Islands Tue evening
then moving offshore. Some lingering showers are possible here
early, and a few rain to snow showers possible western MA in the
evening as mid level trough swings through. Otherwise, gradual
clearing will develop although some lower clouds may linger across
NW MA. Gusty west winds will develop overnight as low level cold
advection increases.

Wednesday through Friday...

Blustery and colder pattern as longwave trough develops over the NE
but mainly dry weather expected with dry column and subsidence. Near
normal temps Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri. Core of the
coldest air aloft on Thu with 850 mb temps near -15C. This will
result in highs Thu mainly in the 20s to near 30 with gusty winds
making it feel considerably colder, while Thu night wind chills drop
into the single numbers and subzero higher terrain. Temps recover
Fri as heights begin to rise and low level temps moderate but a cold
start will hold temps from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Return to milder airmass and well above normal temps as high pres
moves offshore and mid level ridge builds north along the east
coast. 850 mb temp anomalies 1-2SD and EPS/GEFS ensembles have
fairly high probs of 50s in the coastal plain by Sun. Deterministic
GFS looks too fast with next approaching trough and not supported by
majority of GEFS members so we leaned toward slower ECWMF solution
given downstream ridging in place over the western Atlantic. Next
chance of showers assocd with the mid level trough and attending
cold front should hold off until Sunday or possibly Sat night. Very
low risk of some icing distant interior if precip comes in Sat night
but any freezing precip would probably be localized and this is
a very low probability.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.
CIGS lowering to MVFR-IFR by 12Z across central and western
areas. Noting spotty light mix of -RA/-SN/-FZRA mainly across
the E slopes of the Berkshires to N Worcester county and the
Merrimack valley through daybreak.

Today...Moderate confidence.
Mainly IFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS. Increasing chance of -RA through
the day, with chance for -FZRA developing across N central and
NW Mass by late afternoon. Light winds shift to E-SE by evening.

Tonight...Low to Moderate confidence.
MVFR-IFR CIGS for most areas. Rain most places with -FZRA
across N central and NW Mass as winds shift to E- there. Across
S areas, winds shift to S and increase after midnight, with
CIGS lifting to VFR but MVFR-IFR VSBYS linger in patchy fog.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mix of conditions from locally VFR to start across N CT/RI/SE
Mass, ranging to IFR across N central and W Mass. Conditions
lower to MVFR-IFR as cold front approaches, bringing low clouds
and areas of locally heavy rain. Low chance of TSRA. Depending
upon the timing of the cold front, conditions may improve to VFR
across western areas during the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR/IFR possible in the
evening across Cape/Islands. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA in the evening.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.

Today...
Light E-SE winds increase to around 10 kt during the day. Seas
build up to 2-3 ft. Visibility reduced to around 3 miles during
the afternoon in rain and fog.

Tonight...
Wind shift to SE-S during the night, with gusts increasing to
20-25 kt. Seas build to 3-5 ft on the outer waters after
midnight. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in rain and fog.

Tuesday...
Gale warning issued for all waters. S winds increase, gusting up
to 35-40 kt, highest from mid morning through the afternoon.
Seas build up to 6-9 ft. Visibility 1-3 miles in rain and fog.
Chance for isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
     Tuesday for MAZ002>004-008-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220846
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
346 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south through northern New England today
with colder temperatures returning. Some light snow is expected
as well, with the front lifting back north as a warm front
tonight and Tuesday. As it does so, expect a period of freezing
rain for most areas before temperatures warm. As the low moves
away Tuesday evening a cold front will move across the area from
west to east with colder temperatures expected Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A cold front is moving south through the area this morning with
some light snow falling along and just behind this front across
northern New Hampshire and central Maine. Further south, some
light warm advection precipitation has moved into southern New
England. Expect the cold front to continue moving south and into
southern New England today with temperatures falling behind it.
There exists a pretty strong temperature gradient across this
boundary in northern Maine and Quebec, and some models even show
temperatures falling into the teens this afternoon across much
of western Maine. Have taken this into account with the
temperature forecast today, but did not go quite that extreme.
Meanwhile, light warm advection snowfall should continue on and
off across the area today with intensity picking up just a bit
this afternoon. An inch, maybe two inches, of snow is possible
with this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
More organized area of warm advection snowfall expected to move
north through the area tonight as the front tries to lift back
north as a warm front. Cold air damming will hold in tough at
the surface, so the surface front should get hung up near the
New Hampshire/Massachusetts border while the front aloft lifts
northward. The majority of the precipitation should fall north
of this aloft front primarily in the form of snow, with
temperatures aloft warming behind the front as the steadier
precipitation briefly ends. Could see some light freezing
drizzle or freezing rain within the cold air dammed area by
morning once the snow has ended.

Primary area of low pressure is moving through the Saint
Lawrence Valley on Tuesday, but expect secondary low pressure to
form along the stalled surface warm front and move east during
the day spreading another round of steadier precipitation across
the area. While some additional snow is possible in the
northern parts of the forecast area, most of the area will see
this fall as freezing rain or rain depending on ground level
temperatures.

Models continue to struggle a bit with this cold air damming,
but some of the higher resolution models are more successful in
showing this. Confidence is high that the cold air damming will
occur as the low level easterly flow north of the warm front
will keep the cold air shoved in place east of the mountains.
There is some doubt as to what the temperature will be within
the dammed area, but observed dewpoints within the cold air mass
over northern Maine and southern Quebec this morning are near
zero, so there should be enough cold/dry air to support
temperatures below freezing as the heavier precipitation arrives
Tuesday morning. However, as the rain freezes it releases heat
and will allow low level temperatures to warm fairly quickly up
to around the freezing mark within the dammed area. Meanwhile,
the surface warm front will lift north into southern New
Hampshire fairly early in the morning and push onshore of the
Maine coastline as well with temperatures in the 40s and 50s
behind it. To the west of the mountains, downsloping should
allow the temperature to warm above freezing. It is the area
from Conway to Skowhegan that will have the greatest threat of
freezing rain, though we do expect the ice to have difficulty
sticking to roads and trees after the overnight snowfall,
instead forming a crust on top of the snow and icing any cleared
areas.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire
forecast area, with the timing extending until noon for western,
central, and southern New Hampshire as well as the Maine
coastline as temperatures are expected to warm above freezing by
then. Further inland the advisories continue until 6 PM as the
cold air damming will keep the threat for freezing rain in these
areas longer. Further north there will be greater snowfall
totals including the possibility of more than 6 inches total,
however confidence is low on seeing widespread 6+ inches and
thus a Warning has not been issued.

As low pressure moves east across the area it will pull a cold
front across along with it. While temperatures behind the front
do fall, the areas that were dammed ahead of the front will
actually see the temperature warm a bit behind the front before
cooling later in the night. The majority of the precipitation
will fall along and ahead of the front while some lingering
showers (becoming snow showers) are possible behind the
departing low Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models all agree on Arctic high pressure building southeast
across the region Wed through Fri and becoming centered over New
England by Fri night. Northwest winds will be gusty Wed and Thu
but diminish on Fri. A return to much colder temps will occur
for this time period. In the mountains widely scattered snow
showers are possible while elsewhere dry conditions are
expected. On Saturday, in response to a digging long wave trof
over the upper midwest, the Arctic ridge of high pressure moves
well off the coast allowing a warmer southwest flow to develop
at the surface as well as aloft. Mixed precipitation will move
into the region Sat night and into Sun as the base of the upper
trof progresses east. A cold front will arrive sometime Sunday.
Generally accepted the superblend temps/POPs for the outlook
period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term... Expect ceilings to lower as the day goes on with
some light snow possible at all airports. Conditions gradually
become IFR by tonight as precipitation becomes heavier and
ceilings lower. Expect a period of freezing rain especially east
of the mountains early on Tuesday, with temperatures warming
above freezing in southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine
during the morning. A cold front crosses the area Tuesday
evening and should help end the prolonged IFR conditions with
the exceptions of the areas north of the mountains.

Long Term...VFR conditions Wed through Fri except briefly MVFR
conditions in the mountains in any snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front drops south across the waters tonight
with a northeast wind developing behind it. This front lifts
back north as a warm front tonight into Tuesday with low
pressure moving east along it. Expect a southerly gale on
Tuesday as the low pressure moves along the front and drags a
cold front eastward along with it.

Long Term...SCA conditions are expected Wed through Fri due to a
strong northwest flow as Arctic high pressure builds Southeast
across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern half of New
Hampshire as well as the coastal plain of Maine. These areas are
expected to get significant liquid precipitation during the day
on Tuesday which may cause ice movement and possible ice jams on
area rivers. This could lead to minor flooding especially near
areas affected by ice jams.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST
     Tuesday for MEZ023>028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for NHZ001-002-004-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST
     Tuesday for NHZ003-005-007>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning from noon to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Marine




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220744
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
244 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Some light precipitation is expected today and tonight. Most of it
will be rain, but light icing is likely over interior high terrain
especially tonight into early Tuesday. A fast moving storm system
will bring a period of heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with
strong winds across SE New England. Blustery, dry and colder weather
follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next weekend.
A cold front may bring showers by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1040 PM Update...

Leading edge of overrunning precip pushing into the Berkshires
and Litchfield hills as seen on latest NE regional 88D radar
imagery, though not seeing any ground truth of it reaching the
ground yet. Have kept slight CHC POPs going for now from around
midnight onward, but will monitor the precip progression.

T/Td spreads are lower, down to 4 degrees or less across the CT
valley with some patchy fog from about KPSF-KORE and northward
into S VT/S NH on 03Z obs. As lower layer continues to moisten,
will likely see more patchy fog develop so have included that in
the overnight forecast.

The temps were mainly near or below freezing across N central
and W Mass at 03Z, so will likely see some mixture at the onset
of the precip but should be very light at least to start. Will
follow suggestion from previous shift and issued Special Weather
Statements as needed.

Remainder of forecast was updated to bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

High pressure is situated to provide dry weather much of the
night. Low level flow remains light most of this time, but shows
signs of overrunning after midnight. Meanwhile, satellite images
and sfc observations show a cloud deck over Eastern PA edging
northeast. Between this and the favorable development of lift
overnight, expect increasing clouds through the night.

Can not rule out some light precip late, especially in Western
MA and CT, but the chance before 12Z is rather low so we used
slight chance pops. If any precipitation were to form late
tonight, temperature profiles suggest rain in the south and a
snow/sleet/freezing rain mix north.

Clouds will limit the overnight cooling, and cold air damming
signal does not show much until late night. We maintain a range
of upper 20s north to mid 30s south coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Monday...

High pressure over Quebec Monday and increasing cold air
damming into New England. The damming seems focused on Northern
New England, but could further expand into our area as well
during Monday morning. Our temperature profiles support rain
most places, but a rain/snow mix north of the Mass Pike.

The GFS and ECMWF bring a front south into Southern New England
or just to our south. This shows increasing lift potential, thus
increasing pops. We show chance pops all areas Monday morning
and likely pops in the afternoon in Western and Central Mass and
adjoining CT. An east wind should be enough to keep ptype as
rain, but it may be marginal in Western Mass/Northern Worcester
County.

Even with better lift, the focus of southerly low level winds
and moisture remains to our west across New York State through
the day. So we continue to expect QPF amounts up to 0.1 inches.

Monday night...

Evening cooling and the stalled front to our south may allow a
brief period of freezing rain in Central and Western Mass,
especially along and north of the Route 2 corridor. The front
moves north during the night with winds shifting from the south.
This will bring slowly rising temperatures overnight ending the
icing risk.

South-southwest winds 35-40 knots move up over the region during
the late night. This transports 1 inch PW values into the area.
Expect increasing chance of rain toward morning with
categorical pops...75 pct or higher...over Western Mass and
Western CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Blustery and colder Wed, and especially Thu/Fri, but dry
* Much milder next weekend with showers possible by Sunday

Tuesday night...

Cold front will be in the vicinity of the Cape/Islands Tue evening
then moving offshore. Some lingering showers are possible here
early, and a few rain to snow showers possible western MA in the
evening as mid level trough swings through. Otherwise, gradual
clearing will develop although some lower clouds may linger across
NW MA. Gusty west winds will develop overnight as low level cold
advection increases.

Wednesday through Friday...

Blustery and colder pattern as longwave trough develops over the NE
but mainly dry weather expected with dry column and subsidence. Near
normal temps Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri. Core of the
coldest air aloft on Thu with 850 mb temps near -15C. This will
result in highs Thu mainly in the 20s to near 30 with gusty winds
making it feel considerably colder, while Thu night wind chills drop
into the single numbers and subzero higher terrain. Temps recover
Fri as heights begin to rise and low level temps moderate but a cold
start will hold temps from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Return to milder airmass and well above normal temps as high pres
moves offshore and mid level ridge builds north along the east
coast. 850 mb temp anomalies 1-2SD and EPS/GEFS ensembles have
fairly high probs of 50s in the coastal plain by Sun. Deterministic
GFS looks too fast with next approaching trough and not supported by
majority of GEFS members so we leaned toward slower ECWMF solution
given downstream ridging in place over the western Atlantic. Next
chance of showers assocd with the mid level trough and attending
cold front should hold off until Sunday or possibly Sat night. Very
low risk of some icing distant interior if precip comes in Sat night
but any freezing precip would probably be localized and this is
a very low probability.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Overnight...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions with light/variable winds becoming S along
the S coast toward daybreak. Expect CIGS/VSBYS lowering to MVFR
across the E slopes of the Berkshires and CT valley by around
05Z, then will slowly shift E across central and NE Mass. Will
see a spotty light mix of -RA/-SN/-FZRA/-PE mainly across the E
slopes of the Berkshires to N Worcester county and the
Merrimack valley through daybreak.

Monday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR cigs with areas of IFR cigs developing in the afternoon.
Increasing chance of light rain through the day. Generally MVFR
vsbys in rain and some mixed rain/snow. Light wind becomes light
East-Northeast.

Monday night...Moderate confidence.
MVFR conditions with areas of IFR. Rain most places with a
chance of freezing rain early in northern areas of Massachusetts
such as vicinity of FIT and ORE. Winds turn from the Southeast
and South toward morning.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR/IFR possible in the
evening across Cape/Islands. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA in the evening.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.

Tonight and Monday... Light winds shift from the south late at
night and from the southeast Monday. Speeds remain below 15
knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Vsby lowers to 3-5 miles in rain
during Monday afternoon.

Monday night...

Southeast to south wind increasing, but remaining below 25
knots. Seas building to 4 feet. Rain with vsbys 3-5 miles.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ232>235-237-250-254>256.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ230-236.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ231-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...Doody/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220411
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1111 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm air aloft moves north tonight and brings clouds to southern
New England. Some light precipitation is possible Monday. Most
of it will be rain, but some light icing is possible in the
interior. A fast moving storm system will bring a period of
heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. Blustery, dry and colder weather follows Wednesday
through Friday, before above normal temperatures likely return
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1040 PM Update...

Leading edge of overrunning precip pushing into the Berkshires
and Litchfield hills as seen on latest NE regional 88D radar
imagery, though not seeing any ground truth of it reaching the
ground yet. Have kept slight CHC POPs going for now from around
midnight onward, but will monitor the precip progression.

T/Td spreads are lower, down to 4 degrees or less across the CT
valley with some patchy fog from about KPSF-KORE and northward
into S VT/S NH on 03Z obs. As lower layer continues to moisten,
will likely see more patchy fog develop so have included that in
the overnight forecast.

The temps were mainly near or below freezing across N central
and W Mass at 03Z, so will likely see some mixture at the onset
of the precip but should be very light at least to start. Will
follow suggestion from previous shift and issued Special Weather
Statements as needed.

Remainder of forecast was updated to bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

High pressure is situated to provide dry weather much of the
night. Low level flow remains light most of this time, but shows
signs of overrunning after midnight. Meanwhile, satellite images
and sfc observations show a cloud deck over Eastern PA edging
northeast. Between this and the favorable development of lift
overnight, expect increasing clouds through the night.

Can not rule out some light precip late, especially in Western
MA and CT, but the chance before 12Z is rather low so we used
slight chance pops. If any precipitation were to form late
tonight, temperature profiles suggest rain in the south and a
snow/sleet/freezing rain mix north.

Clouds will limit the overnight cooling, and cold air damming
signal does not show much until late night. We maintain a range
of upper 20s north to mid 30s south coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

High pressure over Quebec Monday and increasing cold air
damming into New England. The damming seems focused on Northern
New England, but could further expand into our area as well
during Monday morning. Our temperature profiles support rain
most places, but a rain/snow mix north of the Mass Pike.

The GFS and ECMWF bring a front south into Southern New England
or just to our south. This shows increasing lift potential, thus
increasing pops. We show chance pops all areas Monday morning
and likely pops in the afternoon in Western and Central Mass and
adjoining CT. An east wind should be enough to keep ptype as
rain, but it may be marginal in Western Mass/Northern Worcester
County.

Even with better lift, the focus of southerly low level winds
and moisture remains to our west across New York State through
the day. So we continue to expect QPF amounts up to 0.1 inches.

Monday night...

Evening cooling and the stalled front to our south may allow a
brief period of freezing rain in Central and Western Mass,
especially along and north of the Route 2 corridor. The front
moves north during the night with winds shifting from the south.
This will bring slowly rising temperatures overnight ending the
icing risk.

South-southwest winds 35-40 knots move up over the region during
the late night. This transports 1 inch PW values into the area.
Expect increasing chance of rain toward morning with
categorical pops...75 pct or higher...over Western Mass and
Western CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Some minor flooding issues are possible
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Overview and model preferences...
The medium range will feature gradual breakdown of strong
positive height anomalies as ridging shifts offshore, allowing
an opening cutoff to phase with the northern stream. This
transition, and the fact that the cutoff will have tapped
subtropical moisture will feature a widespread rainfall event
Tue, until the drier CP air associated with the N stream filters
in mid week. This colder airmass is not significantly cold, as
low and mid lvl temps anomalies are barely 1 full standard
deviation below normal, but colder wx can be expected to follow
the rainfall. As a PACNW wave deepens in the lee of the Rockies
late week, this will force yet another rise in height anomalies
with strong ridging into the weekend, which would favor another
moderation in temperatures and suggests that any precip
associated with low pres attendant to the wave moving E of the
Rockies is likely to remain warm at least initially. Overall,
both ensembles and deterministic guidance are in fairly good
agreement with these synoptic scale features, so will use a
consensus guidance blend as the baseline for this forecast.

Details...

Tue...
Low pres, moving out of the Great Lakes will initially
slide along the Canadian border into N Canada. The fact that
this system is continuing to deepen on Tue suggests the lack of
an occlusion processes yet and favors a more progressive
passage. Several factors point to periods of moderate and
occasional heavy rain as the cold front slides through mid day
Wed into early Wed evening. With the influence of subtropical
moisture allowing PWATs to reach near 1.00 inches (almost 3 std
deviations above normal) combined with deep warm rain processes,
conditionally unstable profiles supporting some modest elevated
CAPE and LLJ approaching +60 kt all should act in accordance.
Therefore, expecting widespread rain with periods of rainfall
approaching 0.5-1.00in/hr on occasion, especially as any
convective elements develop. These rainfall rates do suggest a
lingering risk for urban and poor drainage flooding, as well as
some flashier river flooding especially where any lingering ice
is involved. Area hydrographs, particularly in NW MA continue to
show the influence of ice. This may require the hoisting of a
flood watch in the future. Final QPF totals generally range
between 0.75 and 1.50 inches, although a few spots may approach
2.00 inches before all is finished. Low risk for occasional
TSRA, especially along the LLJ core across SE MA/RI, but there
is a low risk across most of S New England.

Aside from the heavy rain/flood risk. The core of a 60+ kt
(H92) LLJ will slide across SE MA/RI during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Conditionally unstable soundings support
some mixing of this momentum on its own, but as previous
forecaster noted, the addition of warmer sfc temps (if they
reach near 60F) will enhance the lower level mixing. Also,
convection will also enhance this mixing. Therefore, will
continue to yield about 60-70 percent of this momentum to the
surface in this area, which is likely require wind advisories if
realized. Near shore locations may be slightly inverted thanks
to cooler SSTs, but these could be overcome by the mechanical
and frictional forces mentioned above.

Mild, thanks to warm H92 temps in place into the overnight
hours. Expecting highs mainly in the 50s across most of S New
England.

Wed through Fri...
Cooling trend expected as lower height anomalies associated
with a gradually opening trof settles across New England. This
will also be associated with high pres and generally dry
conditions thanks to strong subsidence inversion, especially as
the high crests above 1035hPa. Wed, the delay in cold advection
should keep highs near seasonal normals, mainly the upper 20s to
mid 30s, although a few spots mainly across E MA/RI could reach
around 40F thanks to some downsloping. Otherwise, the cooler
days are expected on Thu and Fri as H92 temps settle to -10C and
-7C on average respectively. This will keep highs in the mid
20s to low 30s each day. The best chance for radiational cooling
appears to be Thu night into Fri, thanks to a slackening in the
sfc pres gradient which will be too strong Wed night. This will
likely allow mins to fall into the single digits and teens.

Next weekend...
Gradual transition as high pres and associated ridging move E,
allowing for another deepening trof to impact the region.
Initially, the warming signal with rising heights for Sat favors
mainly a warm solution for low pres passage on Sun, but given
the possibility of some entrenched lower level cold air in the
NW at precip onset, as well as uncertainty with the N stream
influence does hint at the possibility of a colder solution.
Will lean more heavily on ensemble means, which, for the most
part yields a warmer (rain) solution, but this will have to be
watched as all of the players become better sampled.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Overnight...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions with light/variable winds becoming S along
the S coast toward daybreak. Expect CIGS/VSBYS lowering to MVFR
across the E slopes of the Berkshires and CT valley by around
05Z, then will slowly shift E across central and NE Mass. Will
see a spotty light mix of -RA/-SN/-FZRA/-PE mainly across the E
slopes of the Berkshires to N Worcester county and the
Merrimack valley through daybreak.

Monday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR cigs with areas of IFR cigs developing in the afternoon.
Increasing chance of light rain through the day. Generally MVFR
vsbys in rain and some mixed rain/snow. Light wind becomes light
East-Northeast.

Monday night...Moderate confidence.
MVFR conditions with areas of IFR. Rain most places with a
chance of freezing rain early in northern areas of Massachusetts
such as vicinity of FIT and ORE. Winds turn from the Southeast
and South toward morning.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt. RA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with local gusts to 40 kt.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...Moderate confidence.

Tonight and Monday... Light winds shift from the south late at
night and from the southeast Monday. Speeds remain below 15
knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Vsby lowers to 3-5 miles in rain
during Monday afternoon.

Monday night...

Southeast to south wind increasing, but remaining below 25
knots. Seas building to 4 feet. Rain with vsbys 3-5 miles.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ232>235-237-250-254>256.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ230-236.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ231-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...Doody/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...WTB/Doody/EVT
MARINE...WTB/Doody/EVT
HYDROLOGY...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220251
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
951 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary across southern New England will
gradually lift north as a warm front late tonight through Monday
night. Low pressure will track northeast out of the Great Lakes
and into the St Lawrence Valley on Tuesday and will drive a cold
front through the region late in the day. Low pressure will
continue northeast into the maritimes Tuesday night. High
pressure will slowly build in from the west Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
950 pm Update: Previous forecast on track with no changes
needed at this time.

7 pm Update: Input latest mesonet data with only a few minor
tweaks needed. Previous forecast looks good going forward to the
overnight hours.

Previous Discussion:
Clouds will be on the increase overnight as weak over-running
sets up along a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern
New England. With the exception of a stray flurry in the
mountains...expect a dry night with lows dropping back into the
mid teens to mid 20s north and mid 20s to near 30 in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will begin to lift north on Monday bringing
over-running precip into western zones in the afternoon.
Precipitation will likely be in the form of light rain or snow
in southern New Hampshire with occasional light snow elsewhere.
Expect little if any accumulation through evening with QPF
generally less than a tenth of an inch. Highs will range through
the 30s in the south and mid 20s to mid 30s north.

Warm front will continue to lift north Monday night producing
occasional light snow in northern zones and a mix of
sleet...snow and eventually freezing rain in southern sections.
Once again only looking for light amounts of QPF with just an
inch or two of accumulation in the north and light accumulations
of snow sleet and ice in the south. Southern New Hampshire will
hover around freezing overnight with the remainder of the
forecast area ranging through the 20s. With this generally being
a 3rd and 4th period event will let the mid shift decide on
timing and areal extent of any needed advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Mixed precipitation expected Tuesday***

Focus of the extended remains on the Mon night/Tue system moving
out of the Great Lakes. 21.12z GFS and ECMWF remain insistent on
primary low pressure moving into Ontario...and weak secondary
development occurring and running thru the heart of New England.
There is not much climatological support for this type of
track...so I hesitate to warm the surface as much as those
models indicate. We are now in long ranges of some hi-res
guidance...which show a much colder and cold air dammed
scenario. I prefer this evolution...especially given the high
pressure building across the top of the advancing system. I
leaned heavily on the hi-res NAM 2 m temps for general pattern
Tue.

Aloft I used a multi-model blend for max wet bulb temp in order
to determine ptype. Relatively early on in the event...warmer
air aloft will be moving in from the SW. So I expect snow will
be rather brief outside of the Wrn ME mtns. Behind the mid level
warm front we end up in the warm sector without much precip
occurring. There could be some drizzle or freezing drizzle that
occurs at this time...but confidence is low. That warm air
aloft marches steadily NEwd...as the heavier precip arrives
around 12z. I expect a mix of snow in the mtns...sleet and
freezing rain S...and rain near the coast and parts of far Srn
and SWrn NH. The cold air damming signal lets up around 18z...so
I expect more of a transition to rain at that point and a mix in
the mtns. Overall no one winter ptype looks to amount to
significant accumulations...so in all likelihood a winter wx
advisory will handle it. The preference is to let the next shift
get another look at hi-res guidance...which will have a better
handle on low level temp fields.

It is still worth noting that 12z raobs across the Wrn CONUS
show H5 heights are higher than modeled ahead of the developing
wave. This has tended to favor stronger high pressure to the NE
of the storm in the ensemble systems. It is something to watch
for regarding cooling trends.

Also of concern is any run off going into area rivers. There
remain ice jams...and water levels rising may lead to renewed
flooding. A flood watch has been issued for the areas most at
risk for this.

Beyond the early week system...CAA midweek gradually gives way
to moderating and mild temps. The multi-model consensus blend
was used for this portion of the forecast...with the focus being
on the mixed precip event.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening with MVFR/IFR ceilings developing
after midnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings Monday through Monday with
IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsby Monday night.

Long Term...Widespread IFR conditions are likely as mid level
warm front moves thru and WAA continues aloft. Precip will
increase in intensity after 12z Tue...with some FZRA and PL
possible at all terminals. Coastal terminals are expected to
warm up first to RA...but it is possible that models are warming
the surface too quickly. Widespread LLWS is expected as
well...as LLJ increases to 50 kts around 2000 ft. Flow becomes
Wly Wed...returning S of the mtns to VFR. HIE will hang on to
MVFR CIGs and VCSH for much of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA`s may be needed late Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

Long Term...Gale force winds are possible Tue ahead of
approaching low pressure...especially outside of the bays. A
gale watch has been issued for the outer waters into Tue night.
SCA conditions likely for the bays. SCA conditions are expected
to continue for much of the rest of the week...in CAA Wly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch has been issued as some run off and river rises
are expected and ice jams remain in place along several rivers.
This may lead to minor flooding as ice jams break up and reform
downstream.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
Marine




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220251
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
951 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary across southern New England will
gradually lift north as a warm front late tonight through Monday
night. Low pressure will track northeast out of the Great Lakes
and into the St Lawrence Valley on Tuesday and will drive a cold
front through the region late in the day. Low pressure will
continue northeast into the maritimes Tuesday night. High
pressure will slowly build in from the west Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
950 pm Update: Previous forecast on track with no changes
needed at this time.

7 pm Update: Input latest mesonet data with only a few minor
tweaks needed. Previous forecast looks good going forward to the
overnight hours.

Previous Discussion:
Clouds will be on the increase overnight as weak over-running
sets up along a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern
New England. With the exception of a stray flurry in the
mountains...expect a dry night with lows dropping back into the
mid teens to mid 20s north and mid 20s to near 30 in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will begin to lift north on Monday bringing
over-running precip into western zones in the afternoon.
Precipitation will likely be in the form of light rain or snow
in southern New Hampshire with occasional light snow elsewhere.
Expect little if any accumulation through evening with QPF
generally less than a tenth of an inch. Highs will range through
the 30s in the south and mid 20s to mid 30s north.

Warm front will continue to lift north Monday night producing
occasional light snow in northern zones and a mix of
sleet...snow and eventually freezing rain in southern sections.
Once again only looking for light amounts of QPF with just an
inch or two of accumulation in the north and light accumulations
of snow sleet and ice in the south. Southern New Hampshire will
hover around freezing overnight with the remainder of the
forecast area ranging through the 20s. With this generally being
a 3rd and 4th period event will let the mid shift decide on
timing and areal extent of any needed advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Mixed precipitation expected Tuesday***

Focus of the extended remains on the Mon night/Tue system moving
out of the Great Lakes. 21.12z GFS and ECMWF remain insistent on
primary low pressure moving into Ontario...and weak secondary
development occurring and running thru the heart of New England.
There is not much climatological support for this type of
track...so I hesitate to warm the surface as much as those
models indicate. We are now in long ranges of some hi-res
guidance...which show a much colder and cold air dammed
scenario. I prefer this evolution...especially given the high
pressure building across the top of the advancing system. I
leaned heavily on the hi-res NAM 2 m temps for general pattern
Tue.

Aloft I used a multi-model blend for max wet bulb temp in order
to determine ptype. Relatively early on in the event...warmer
air aloft will be moving in from the SW. So I expect snow will
be rather brief outside of the Wrn ME mtns. Behind the mid level
warm front we end up in the warm sector without much precip
occurring. There could be some drizzle or freezing drizzle that
occurs at this time...but confidence is low. That warm air
aloft marches steadily NEwd...as the heavier precip arrives
around 12z. I expect a mix of snow in the mtns...sleet and
freezing rain S...and rain near the coast and parts of far Srn
and SWrn NH. The cold air damming signal lets up around 18z...so
I expect more of a transition to rain at that point and a mix in
the mtns. Overall no one winter ptype looks to amount to
significant accumulations...so in all likelihood a winter wx
advisory will handle it. The preference is to let the next shift
get another look at hi-res guidance...which will have a better
handle on low level temp fields.

It is still worth noting that 12z raobs across the Wrn CONUS
show H5 heights are higher than modeled ahead of the developing
wave. This has tended to favor stronger high pressure to the NE
of the storm in the ensemble systems. It is something to watch
for regarding cooling trends.

Also of concern is any run off going into area rivers. There
remain ice jams...and water levels rising may lead to renewed
flooding. A flood watch has been issued for the areas most at
risk for this.

Beyond the early week system...CAA midweek gradually gives way
to moderating and mild temps. The multi-model consensus blend
was used for this portion of the forecast...with the focus being
on the mixed precip event.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening with MVFR/IFR ceilings developing
after midnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings Monday through Monday with
IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsby Monday night.

Long Term...Widespread IFR conditions are likely as mid level
warm front moves thru and WAA continues aloft. Precip will
increase in intensity after 12z Tue...with some FZRA and PL
possible at all terminals. Coastal terminals are expected to
warm up first to RA...but it is possible that models are warming
the surface too quickly. Widespread LLWS is expected as
well...as LLJ increases to 50 kts around 2000 ft. Flow becomes
Wly Wed...returning S of the mtns to VFR. HIE will hang on to
MVFR CIGs and VCSH for much of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA`s may be needed late Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

Long Term...Gale force winds are possible Tue ahead of
approaching low pressure...especially outside of the bays. A
gale watch has been issued for the outer waters into Tue night.
SCA conditions likely for the bays. SCA conditions are expected
to continue for much of the rest of the week...in CAA Wly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch has been issued as some run off and river rises
are expected and ice jams remain in place along several rivers.
This may lead to minor flooding as ice jams break up and reform
downstream.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
Marine




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220000
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
700 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm air aloft moves north tonight and brings clouds to Southern
New England. Some light precipitation is possible Monday. Most
of it will be rain, but some light icing is possible in the
interior. A fast moving storm system will bring a period of
heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. Blustery, dry and colder weather follows Wednesday
through Friday, before above normal temperatures likely return
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7pm update...
Overall, the forecast remains on track. However, will slow the
progression and lower the overall POPs overnight as the column
moistens in the lower lvls slowly. Mainly a drizzle risk given
low RH in the ice regime aloft. The key will be temperatures
which may hug close to possibly even above freezing. Special
statements may be needed if drizzle is observed with temps near
0C, but this is likely to be a very localized risk, hence the
low POPs.

Previous discussion...

High pressure is situated to provide dry weather much of the
night. Low level flow remains light most of this time, but shows
signs of overrunning after midnight. Meanwhile, satellite images
and sfc observations show a cloud deck over Eastern PA edging
northeast. Between this and the favorable development of lift
overnight, expect increasing clouds through the night.

Can not rule out some light precip late, especially in Western
MA and CT, but the chance before 12Z is rather low so we used
slight chance pops. If any precipitation were to form late
tonight, temperature profiles suggest rain in the south and a
snow/sleet/freezing rain mix north.

Clouds will limit the overnight cooling, and cold air damming
signal does not show much until late night. We maintain a range
of upper 20s north to mid 30s south coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

High pressure over Quebec Monday and increasing cold air
damming into New England. The damming seems focused on Northern
New England, but could further expand into our area as well
during Monday morning. Our temperature profiles support rain
most places, but a rain/snow mix north of the Mass Pike.

The GFS and ECMWF bring a front south into Southern New England
or just to our south. This shows increasing lift potential, thus
increasing pops. We show chance pops all areas Monday morning
and likely pops in the afternoon in Western and Central Mass and
adjoining CT. An east wind should be enough to keep ptype as
rain, but it may be marginal in Western Mass/Northern Worcester
County.

Even with better lift, the focus of southerly low level winds
and moisture remains to our west across New York State through
the day. So we continue to expect QPF amounts up to 0.1 inches.

Monday night...

Evening cooling and the stalled front to our south may allow a
brief period of freezing rain in Central and Western Mass,
especially along and north of the Route 2 corridor. The front
moves north during the night with winds shifting from the south.
This will bring slowly rising temperatures overnight ending the
icing risk.

South-southwest winds 35-40 knots move up over the region during
the late night. This transports 1 inch PW values into the area.
Expect increasing chance of rain toward morning with
categorical pops...75 pct or higher...over Western Mass and
Western CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Some minor flooding issues are possible
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Overview and model preferences...
The medium range will feature gradual breakdown of strong
positive height anomalies as ridging shifts offshore, allowing
an opening cutoff to phase with the northern stream. This
transition, and the fact that the cutoff will have tapped
subtropical moisture will feature a widespread rainfall event
Tue, until the drier CP air associated with the N stream filters
in mid week. This colder airmass is not significantly cold, as
low and mid lvl temps anomalies are barely 1 full standard
deviation below normal, but colder wx can be expected to follow
the rainfall. As a PACNW wave deepens in the lee of the Rockies
late week, this will force yet another rise in height anomalies
with strong ridging into the weekend, which would favor another
moderation in temperatures and suggests that any precip
associated with low pres attendant to the wave moving E of the
Rockies is likely to remain warm at least initially. Overall,
both ensembles and deterministic guidance are in fairly good
agreement with these synoptic scale features, so will use a
consensus guidance blend as the baseline for this forecast.

Details...

Tue...
Low pres, moving out of the Great Lakes will initially
slide along the Canadian border into N Canada. The fact that
this system is continuing to deepen on Tue suggests the lack of
an occlusion processes yet and favors a more progressive
passage. Several factors point to periods of moderate and
occasional heavy rain as the cold front slides through mid day
Wed into early Wed evening. With the influence of subtropical
moisture allowing PWATs to reach near 1.00 inches (almost 3 std
deviations above normal) combined with deep warm rain processes,
conditionally unstable profiles supporting some modest elevated
CAPE and LLJ approaching +60 kt all should act in accordance.
Therefore, expecting widespread rain with periods of rainfall
approaching 0.5-1.00in/hr on occasion, especially as any
convective elements develop. These rainfall rates do suggest a
lingering risk for urban and poor drainage flooding, as well as
some flashier river flooding especially where any lingering ice
is involved. Area hydrographs, particularly in NW MA continue to
show the influence of ice. This may require the hoisting of a
flood watch in the future. Final QPF totals generally range
between 0.75 and 1.50 inches, although a few spots may approach
2.00 inches before all is finished. Low risk for occasional
TSRA, especially along the LLJ core across SE MA/RI, but there
is a low risk across most of S New England.

Aside from the heavy rain/flood risk. The core of a 60+ kt
(H92) LLJ will slide across SE MA/RI during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Conditionally unstable soundings support
some mixing of this momentum on its own, but as previous
forecaster noted, the addition of warmer sfc temps (if they
reach near 60F) will enhance the lower level mixing. Also,
convection will also enhance this mixing. Therefore, will
continue to yield about 60-70 percent of this momentum to the
surface in this area, which is likely require wind advisories if
realized. Near shore locations may be slightly inverted thanks
to cooler SSTs, but these could be overcome by the mechanical
and frictional forces mentioned above.

Mild, thanks to warm H92 temps in place into the overnight
hours. Expecting highs mainly in the 50s across most of S New
England.

Wed through Fri...
Cooling trend expected as lower height anomalies associated
with a gradually opening trof settles across New England. This
will also be associated with high pres and generally dry
conditions thanks to strong subsidence inversion, especially as
the high crests above 1035hPa. Wed, the delay in cold advection
should keep highs near seasonal normals, mainly the upper 20s to
mid 30s, although a few spots mainly across E MA/RI could reach
around 40F thanks to some downsloping. Otherwise, the cooler
days are expected on Thu and Fri as H92 temps settle to -10C and
-7C on average respectively. This will keep highs in the mid
20s to low 30s each day. The best chance for radiational cooling
appears to be Thu night into Fri, thanks to a slackening in the
sfc pres gradient which will be too strong Wed night. This will
likely allow mins to fall into the single digits and teens.

Next weekend...
Gradual transition as high pres and associated ridging move E,
allowing for another deepening trof to impact the region.
Initially, the warming signal with rising heights for Sat favors
mainly a warm solution for low pres passage on Sun, but given
the possibility of some entrenched lower level cold air in the
NW at precip onset, as well as uncertainty with the N stream
influence does hint at the possibility of a colder solution.
Will lean more heavily on ensemble means, which, for the most
part yields a warmer (rain) solution, but this will have to be
watched as all of the players become better sampled.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Overnight...High confidence.
VFR with light and vrb winds through 06Z...after which gradual
reduction to MVFR CIGS expected from W-E, along with isolated
SHRA even light FZDZ across the interior, but these will be few
and far between.

Monday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR cigs with areas of IFR cigs developing in the afternoon.
Increasing chance of light rain through the day. Generally MVFR
vsbys in rain and some mixed rain/snow. Light wind becomes
light East-Northeast.

Monday night...Moderate confidence.

MVFR conditions with areas of IFR. Rain most places with a
chance of freezing rain early in northern areas of
Massachusetts such as vicinity of FIT and ORE. Winds turn from
the Southeast and South toward morning.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt. RA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with local gusts to 40 kt.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...Moderate confidence.

Tonight and Monday... Light winds shift from the south late at
night and from the southeast Monday. Speeds remain below 15
knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Vsby lowers to 3-5 miles in rain
during Monday afternoon.

Monday night...

Southeast to south wind increasing, but remaining below 25
knots. Seas building to 4 feet. Rain with vsbys 3-5 miles.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ232>235-237-250-254>256.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ230-236.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ231-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...WTB/Doody
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...WTB/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Doody
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212358
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
658 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary across southern New England will
gradually lift north as a warm front late tonight through Monday
night. Low pressure will track northeast out of the Great Lakes
and into the St Lawrence Valley on Tuesday and will drive a cold
front through the region late in the day. Low pressure will
continue northeast into the maritimes Tuesday night. High
pressure will slowly build in from the west Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 pm Update: Input latest mesonet data with only a few minor
tweaks needed. Previous forecast looks good going forward to the
overnight hours.

Previous Discussion:
Clouds will be on the increase overnight as weak over-running
sets up along a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern
New England. With the exception of a stray flurry in the
mountains...expect a dry night with lows dropping back into the
mid teens to mid 20s north and mid 20s to near 30 in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will begin to lift north on Monday bringing
over-running precip into western zones in the afternoon.
Precipitation will likely be in the form of light rain or snow
in southern New Hampshire with occasional light snow elsewhere.
Expect little if any accumulation through evening with QPF
generally less than a tenth of an inch. Highs will range through
the 30s in the south and mid 20s to mid 30s north.

Warm front will continue to lift north Monday night producing
occasional light snow in northern zones and a mix of
sleet...snow and eventually freezing rain in southern sections.
Once again only looking for light amounts of QPF with just an
inch or two of accumulation in the north and light accumulations
of snow sleet and ice in the south. Southern New Hampshire will
hover around freezing overnight with the remainder of the
forecast area ranging through the 20s. With this generally being
a 3rd and 4th period event will let the mid shift decide on
timing and areal extent of any needed advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Mixed precipitation expected Tuesday***

Focus of the extended remains on the Mon night/Tue system moving
out of the Great Lakes. 21.12z GFS and ECMWF remain insistent on
primary low pressure moving into Ontario...and weak secondary
development occurring and running thru the heart of New England.
There is not much climatological support for this type of
track...so I hesitate to warm the surface as much as those
models indicate. We are now in long ranges of some hi-res
guidance...which show a much colder and cold air dammed
scenario. I prefer this evolution...especially given the high
pressure building across the top of the advancing system. I
leaned heavily on the hi-res NAM 2 m temps for general pattern
Tue.

Aloft I used a multi-model blend for max wet bulb temp in order
to determine ptype. Relatively early on in the event...warmer
air aloft will be moving in from the SW. So I expect snow will
be rather brief outside of the Wrn ME mtns. Behind the mid level
warm front we end up in the warm sector without much precip
occurring. There could be some drizzle or freezing drizzle that
occurs at this time...but confidence is low. That warm air
aloft marches steadily NEwd...as the heavier precip arrives
around 12z. I expect a mix of snow in the mtns...sleet and
freezing rain S...and rain near the coast and parts of far Srn
and SWrn NH. The cold air damming signal lets up around 18z...so
I expect more of a transition to rain at that point and a mix in
the mtns. Overall no one winter ptype looks to amount to
significant accumulations...so in all likelihood a winter wx
advisory will handle it. The preference is to let the next shift
get another look at hi-res guidance...which will have a better
handle on low level temp fields.

It is still worth noting that 12z raobs across the Wrn CONUS
show H5 heights are higher than modeled ahead of the developing
wave. This has tended to favor stronger high pressure to the NE
of the storm in the ensemble systems. It is something to watch
for regarding cooling trends.

Also of concern is any run off going into area rivers. There
remain ice jams...and water levels rising may lead to renewed
flooding. A flood watch has been issued for the areas most at
risk for this.

Beyond the early week system...CAA midweek gradually gives way
to moderating and mild temps. The multi-model consensus blend
was used for this portion of the forecast...with the focus being
on the mixed precip event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening with MVFR/IFR ceilings developing
after midnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings Monday through Monday with
IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsby Monday night.

Long Term...Widespread IFR conditions are likely as mid level
warm front moves thru and WAA continues aloft. Precip will
increase in intensity after 12z Tue...with some FZRA and PL
possible at all terminals. Coastal terminals are expected to
warm up first to RA...but it is possible that models are warming
the surface too quickly. Widespread LLWS is expected as
well...as LLJ increases to 50 kts around 2000 ft. Flow becomes
Wly Wed...returning S of the mtns to VFR. HIE will hang on to
MVFR CIGs and VCSH for much of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA`s may be needed late Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

Long Term...Gale force winds are possible Tue ahead of
approaching low pressure...especially outside of the bays. A
gale watch has been issued for the outer waters into Tue night.
SCA conditions likely for the bays. SCA conditions are expected
to continue for much of the rest of the week...in CAA Wly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch has been issued as some run off and river rises
are expected and ice jams remain in place along several rivers.
This may lead to minor flooding as ice jams break up and reform
downstream.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
Marine




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212043
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
343 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm air aloft moves north tonight and brings clouds to Southern
New England. Some light precipitation is possible Monday. Most
of it will be rain, but some light icing is possible in the
interior. A fast moving storm system will bring a period of
heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. Blustery, dry and colder weather follows Wednesday
through Friday, before above normal temperatures likely return
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure is situated to provide dry weather much of the
night. Low level flow remains light most of this time, but shows
signs of overrunning after midnight. Meanwhile, satellite images
and sfc observations show a cloud deck over Eastern PA edging
northeast. Between this and the favorable development of lift
overnight, expect increasing clouds through the night.

Can not rule out some light precip late, especially in Western
MA and CT, but the chance before 12Z is rather low so we used
slight chance pops. If any precipitation were to form late
tonight, temperature profiles suggest rain in the south and a
snow/sleet/freezing rain mix north.

Clouds will limit the overnight cooling, and cold air damming
signal does not show much until late night. We maintain a range
of upper 20s north to mid 30s south coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

High pressure over Quebec Monday and increasing cold air
damming into New England. The damming seems focused on Northern
New England, but could further expand into our area as well
during Monday morning. Our temperature profiles support rain
most places, but a rain/snow mix north of the Mass Pike.

The GFS and ECMWF bring a front south into Southern New England
or just to our south. This shows increasing lift potential, thus
increasing pops. We show chance pops all areas Monday morning
and likely pops in the afternoon in Western and Central Mass and
adjoining CT. An east wind should be enough to keep ptype as
rain, but it may be marginal in Western Mass/Northern Worcester
County.

Even with better lift, the focus of southerly low level winds
and moisture remains to our west across New York State through
the day. So we continue to expect QPF amounts up to 0.1 inches.

Monday night...

Evening cooling and the stalled front to our south may allow a
brief period of freezing rain in Central and Western Mass,
especially along and north of the Route 2 corridor. The front
moves north during the night with winds shifting from the south.
This will bring slowly rising temperatures overnight ending the
icing risk.

South-southwest winds 35-40 knots move up over the region during
the late night. This transports 1 inch PW values into the area.
Expect increasing chance of rain toward morning with
categorical pops...75 pct or higher...over Western Mass and
Western CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Some minor flooding issues are possible
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Overview and model preferences...
The medium range will feature gradual breakdown of strong
positive height anomalies as ridging shifts offshore, allowing
an opening cutoff to phase with the northern stream. This
transition, and the fact that the cutoff will have tapped
subtropical moisture will feature a widespread rainfall event
Tue, until the drier CP air associated with the N stream filters
in mid week. This colder airmass is not significantly cold, as
low and mid lvl temps anomalies are barely 1 full standard
deviation below normal, but colder wx can be expected to follow
the rainfall. As a PACNW wave deepens in the lee of the Rockies
late week, this will force yet another rise in height anomalies
with strong ridging into the weekend, which would favor another
moderation in temperatures and suggests that any precip
associated with low pres attendant to the wave moving E of the
Rockies is likely to remain warm at least initially. Overall,
both ensembles and deterministic guidance are in fairly good
agreement with these synoptic scale features, so will use a
consensus guidance blend as the baseline for this forecast.

Details...

Tue...
Low pres, moving out of the Great Lakes will initially
slide along the Canadian border into N Canada. The fact that
this system is continuing to deepen on Tue suggests the lack of
an occlusion processes yet and favors a more progressive
passage. Several factors point to periods of moderate and
occasional heavy rain as the cold front slides through mid day
Wed into early Wed evening. With the influence of subtropical
moisture allowing PWATs to reach near 1.00 inches (almost 3 std
deviations above normal) combined with deep warm rain processes,
conditionally unstable profiles supporting some modest elevated
CAPE and LLJ approaching +60 kt all should act in accordance.
Therefore, expecting widespread rain with periods of rainfall
approaching 0.5-1.00in/hr on occasion, especially as any
convective elements develop. These rainfall rates do suggest a
lingering risk for urban and poor drainage flooding, as well as
some flashier river flooding especially where any lingering ice
is involved. Area hydrographs, particularly in NW MA continue to
show the influence of ice. This may require the hoisting of a
flood watch in the future. Final QPF totals generally range
between 0.75 and 1.50 inches, although a few spots may approach
2.00 inches before all is finished. Low risk for occasional
TSRA, especially along the LLJ core across SE MA/RI, but there
is a low risk across most of S New England.

Aside from the heavy rain/flood risk. The core of a 60+ kt
(H92) LLJ will slide across SE MA/RI during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Conditionally unstable soundings support
some mixing of this momentum on its own, but as previous
forecaster noted, the addition of warmer sfc temps (if they
reach near 60F) will enhance the lower level mixing. Also,
convection will also enhance this mixing. Therefore, will
continue to yield about 60-70 percent of this momentum to the
surface in this area, which is likely require wind advisories if
realized. Near shore locations may be slightly inverted thanks
to cooler SSTs, but these could be overcome by the mechanical
and frictional forces mentioned above.

Mild, thanks to warm H92 temps in place into the overnight
hours. Expecting highs mainly in the 50s across most of S New
England.

Wed through Fri...
Cooling trend expected as lower height anomalies associated
with a gradually opening trof settles across New England. This
will also be associated with high pres and generally dry
conditions thanks to strong subsidence inversion, especially as
the high crests above 1035hPa. Wed, the delay in cold advection
should keep highs near seasonal normals, mainly the upper 20s to
mid 30s, although a few spots mainly across E MA/RI could reach
around 40F thanks to some downsloping. Otherwise, the cooler
days are expected on Thu and Fri as H92 temps settle to -10C and
-7C on average respectively. This will keep highs in the mid
20s to low 30s each day. The best chance for radiational cooling
appears to be Thu night into Fri, thanks to a slackening in the
sfc pres gradient which will be too strong Wed night. This will
likely allow mins to fall into the single digits and teens.

Next weekend...
Gradual transition as high pres and associated ridging move E,
allowing for another deepening trof to impact the region.
Initially, the warming signal with rising heights for Sat favors
mainly a warm solution for low pres passage on Sun, but given
the possibility of some entrenched lower level cold air in the
NW at precip onset, as well as uncertainty with the N stream
influence does hint at the possibility of a colder solution.
Will lean more heavily on ensemble means, which, for the most
part yields a warmer (rain) solution, but this will have to be
watched as all of the players become better sampled.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Tonight...High confidence in general, moderate confidence in
timing of lower conditions.

VFR through midnight. MVFR cigs after 06Z. Low probability
toward morning for rain/sleet/freezing rain in Western Mass and
Hartford County CT. This could affect the morning commute,
especially in the CEF-BDL-HFD area.

Monday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR cigs with areas of IFR cigs developing in the afternoon.
Increasing chance of light rain through the day. Generally MVFR
vsbys in rain and some mixed rain/snow. Light wind becomes
light East-Northeast.

Monday night...Moderate confidence.

MVFR conditions with areas of IFR. Rain most places with a
chance of freezing rain early in northern areas of
Massachusetts such as vicinity of FIT and ORE. Winds turn from
the Southeast and South toward morning.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt. RA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with local gusts to 40 kt.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...Moderate confidence.

Tonight and Monday... Light winds shift from the south late at
night and from the southeast Monday. Speeds remain below 15
knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Vsby lowers to 3-5 miles in rain
during Monday afternoon.

Monday night...

Southeast to south wind increasing, but remaining below 25
knots. Seas building to 4 feet. Rain with vsbys 3-5 miles.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ232>235-237-250-254>256.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ230-236.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ231-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...WTB/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Doody
HYDROLOGY...staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212025
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
325 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary across southern New England will
gradually lift north as a warm front late tonight through Monday
night. Low pressure will track northeast out of the Great Lakes
and into the St Lawrence Valley on Tuesday and will drive a cold
front through the region late in the day. Low pressure will
continue northeast into the maritimes Tuesday night. High
pressure will slowly build in from the west Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds will be on the increase overnight as weak over-running
sets up along a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern
New England. With the exception of a stray flurry in the
mountains...expect a dry night with lows dropping back into the
mid teens to mid 20s north and mid 20s to near 30 in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will begin to lift north on Monday bringing
over-running precip into western zones in the afternoon.
Precipitation will likely be in the form of light rain or snow
in southern New Hampshire with occasional light snow elsewhere.
Expect little if any accumulation through evening with QPF
generally less than a tenth of an inch. Highs will range through
the 30s in the south and mid 20s to mid 30s north.

Warm front will continue to lift north Monday night producing
occasional light snow in northern zones and a mix of
sleet...snow and eventually freezing rain in southern sections.
Once again only looking for light amounts of QPF with just an
inch or two of accumulation in the north and light accumulations
of snow sleet and ice in the south. Southern New Hampshire will
hover around freezing overnight with the remainder of the
forecast area ranging through the 20s. With this generally being
a 3rd and 4th period event will let the mid shift decide on
timing and areal extent of any needed advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Mixed precipitation expected Tuesday***

Focus of the extended remains on the Mon night/Tue system moving
out of the Great Lakes. 21.12z GFS and ECMWF remain insistent on
primary low pressure moving into Ontario...and weak secondary
development occurring and running thru the heart of New England.
There is not much climatological support for this type of
track...so I hesitate to warm the surface as much as those
models indicate. We are now in long ranges of some hi-res
guidance...which show a much colder and cold air dammed
scenario. I prefer this evolution...especially given the high
pressure building across the top of the advancing system. I
leaned heavily on the hi-res NAM 2 m temps for general pattern
Tue.

Aloft I used a multi-model blend for max wet bulb temp in order
to determine ptype. Relatively early on in the event...warmer
air aloft will be moving in from the SW. So I expect snow will
be rather brief outside of the Wrn ME mtns. Behind the mid level
warm front we end up in the warm sector without much precip
occurring. There could be some drizzle or freezing drizzle that
occurs at this time...but confidence is low. That warm air
aloft marches steadily NEwd...as the heavier precip arrives
around 12z. I expect a mix of snow in the mtns...sleet and
freezing rain S...and rain near the coast and parts of far Srn
and SWrn NH. The cold air damming signal lets up around 18z...so
I expect more of a transition to rain at that point and a mix in
the mtns. Overall no one winter ptype looks to amount to
significant accumulations...so in all likelihood a winter wx
advisory will handle it. The preference is to let the next shift
get another look at hi-res guidance...which will have a better
handle on low level temp fields.

It is still worth noting that 12z raobs across the Wrn CONUS
show H5 heights are higher than modeled ahead of the developing
wave. This has tended to favor stronger high pressure to the NE
of the storm in the ensemble systems. It is something to watch
for regarding cooling trends.

Also of concern is any run off going into area rivers. There
remain ice jams...and water levels rising may lead to renewed
flooding. A flood watch has been issued for the areas most at
risk for this.

Beyond the early week system...CAA midweek gradually gives way
to moderating and mild temps. The multi-model consensus blend
was used for this portion of the forecast...with the focus being
on the mixed precip event.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening with MVFR/IFR ceilings developing
after midnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings Monday through Monday with
IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsby Monday night.

Long Term...Widespread IFR conditions are likely as mid level
warm front moves thru and WAA continues aloft. Precip will
increase in intensity after 12z Tue...with some FZRA and PL
possible at all terminals. Coastal terminals are expected to
warm up first to RA...but it is possible that models are warming
the surface too quickly. Widespread LLWS is expected as
well...as LLJ increases to 50 kts around 2000 ft. Flow becomes
Wly Wed...returning S of the mtns to VFR. HIE will hang on to
MVFR CIGs and VCSH for much of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA`s may be needed late Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

Long Term...Gale force winds are possible Tue ahead of
approaching low pressure...especially outside of the bays. A
gale watch has been issued for the outer waters into Tue night.
SCA conditions likely for the bays. SCA conditions are expected
to continue for much of the rest of the week...in CAA Wly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch has been issued as some run off and river rises
are expected and ice jams remain in place along several rivers.
This may lead to minor flooding as ice jams break up and reform
downstream.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for MEZ012-018>028.
NH...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for NHZ003>015.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

Sinsabaugh/Legro




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212002
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
302 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm air aloft moves north tonight and brings clouds to Southern
New England. Some light precipitation is possible Monday. Most
of it will be rain, but some light icing is possible in the
interior. A fast moving storm system will bring a period of
heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. Blustery, dry and colder weather follows Wednesday
through Friday, before above normal temperatures likely return
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

High pressure is situated to provide dry weather much of the
night. Low level flow remains light most of this time, but shows
signs of overrunning after midnight. Meanwhile, satellite images
and sfc observations show a cloud deck over Eastern PA edging
northeast. Between this and the favorable development of lift
overnight, expect increasing clouds through the night.

Can not rule out some light precip late, especially in Western
MA and CT, but the chance before 12Z is rather low so we used
slight chance pops. If any precipitation were to form late
tonight, temperature profiles suggest rain in the south and a
snow/sleet/freezing rain mix north.

Clouds will limit the overnight cooling, and cold air damming
signal does not show much until late night. We maintain a range
of upper 20s north to mid 30s south coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Monday...

High pressure over Quebec Monday and increasing cold air
damming into New England. The damming seems focussed on Northern
New England, but could further expand into our area as well
during Monday morning. Our temperature profiles support rain
most places, but a rain/snow mix north of the Mass Pike.

The GFS and ECMWF bring a front south into Southern New England
or just to our south. This shows increasing lift potential, thus
increasing pops. We show chance pops all areas Monday morning
and likely pops in the afternoon in Western and Central Mass and
adjoining CT. An east wind should be enough to keep ptype as
rain, but it may be marginal in Western Mass/Northern Worcester
County.

Even with better lift, the focus of southerly low level winds
and moisture remains to our west across New York State through
the day. So we continue to expect QPF amounts up to 0.1 inches.

Monday night...

Evening cooling and the stalled front to our south may allow a
brief period of freezing rain in Central and Western Mass,
especially along and north of the Route 2 corridor. The front
moves north during the night with winds shifting from the south.
This will bring slowly rising temperatures overnight ending the
icing risk.

South-southwest winds 35-40 knots move up over the region during
the late night. This transports 1 inch PW values into the area.
Expect increasing chance of rain toward morning with
categorical pops...75 pct or higher...over Western Mass and
Western CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Tuesday...

Potential for some light freezing rain lingering over higher
terrain on MA early, otherwise it`s all rain. Decent heavy rain
signal for Tue with PWAT anomaly +2SD and low level wind anomaly
up to +3SD. In addition, elevated instability at the nose of
the low level jet will likely result in some convective elements
with an isold t-storm possible. An area of heavy rain along the
pre-frontal low level jet will move west to east across SNE
with rain exiting the coast around evening. System is
progressive which should limit window of moderate to heavy
rainfall to about 6 hours. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50
inches still looks reasonable with heaviest amounts in western
New Eng. Given that most of the rain will probably fall in a 6
hour window, expect typical minor urban and poor drainage street
flooding, but river flooding is not anticipated.

The other concern is a period of strong winds across RI and
eastern MA as 65-70 kt low level jet moves up along the coastal
plain. Low level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic which will
allow for some mixing, especially where temps climb into the
mid 50s across RI and SE MA and in the vicinity of any heavier
convective elements. In addition, models indicate impressive
pressure falls on the order of 9 mb in 3 hours which will
enhance isallobaric component of the wind. Potential exists for
wind gusts up to 50 mph for a few hours in the afternoon across
RI and SE MA. CIPS analogs also support this with fairly decent
probs of 40+ kts across SE MA.

Wednesday through Friday...

Turning colder and blustery behind the storm with brisk NW
flow. Temps near normal Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri
as core of coldest air aloft settles over the region. Decent
shot of cold air with -15C at 850 mb into SNE on Thu. Highs
likely in the 20s Thu and blustery winds will make it feel
considerably colder. Wind chills Thu night/early Fri morning
dropping into the single numbers with subzero wind chills over
higher terrain. Looks mainly dry during this period.

Saturday...

High pres moves off the coast with SE CONUS ridge building
north into New Eng leading to a moderating trend with above
normal temps likely. Dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Tonight...High confidence in general, moderate confidence in
timing of lower conditions.

VFR through midnight. MVFR cigs after 06Z. Low probability
toward morning for rain/sleet/freezing rain in Western Mass and
Hartford County CT. This could affect the morning commute,
especially in the CEF-BDL-HFD area.

Monday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR cigs with areas of IFR cigs developing in the afternoon.
Increaing chance of light rain through the day. Generally MVFR
vsbys in rain and some mixed rain/snow. Light wind becomes light
East-Northeast.

Monday night...Moderate confidence.

MVFR conditions with areas of IFR. Rain most places with a
chance of freezing rain early in northern areas of
Massachusetts such as vicinity of FIT and ORE. Winds turn from
the Southeast and South toward morning.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt RI and SE MA. RA. Pockets of FZRA early
interior northern MA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts
to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...Moderate confidence.

Tonight and Monday... Light winds shift from the south late at
night and from the southeast Monday. Speeds remain below 15
knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Vsby lowers to 3-5 miles in rain
during Monday afternoon.

Monday night...

Southeast to south wind increasing, but remaining below 25
knots. Seas building to 4 feet. Rain with vsbys 3-5 miles.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.
No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211617
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1117 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south across northern New England
today and stall over southern New England tonight. Low pressure
moving through the Great Lakes will spread some light snow
across the region late Monday into Monday night, with the
stalled front lifting northward as a warm front. Low pressure
tracks east along this front on Tuesday with snow changing to
sleet and freezing rain before temperatures warm. As the low
moves east it will pull a cold front through the region Tuesday
night with colder weather arriving for the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1100 AM Update...
High and mid level clouds will prevail across the region this
afternoon as a weak cold front remains stalled over southern New
England. Temperatures will top out in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Have adjusted temp/td/sky and rh grids to reflect current obs
and sat pics. No other changes planned attm.

Prev Disc...
Update...
Have updated the grids based on current conditions. Temperatures
have begun the morning very mild with readings above freezing in
most locations, even northern areas. Have adjusted afternoon
highs upwards based on this trend. Much of the cloud cover in
central Maine has dissipated with plenty of low clouds situated
over New Hampshire. Have adjusted the forecast accordingly for
this morning based on most recent satellite imagery. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the forecast.

Prev Disc...
Clouds will continue to streak across the forecast
area in the proximity of a weak, stalled out front. High clouds
will persist in the south with low cloudiness over central and
northern areas. Early morning fog in the Keene area is expected
to dissipate after sunrise.

Expect 30s in northern areas today, with lower to mid 40s in the
south allowing for more melting. The gradient will relax towards
the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Clouds will increase and thicken tonight as a warm air
advection pattern develops after midnight and the front begins
to move north.

This warm front will likely stall near the Massachusetts and
New Hampshire state lines tonight and Monday. This will allow a
nose of colder, drier air to filter into the region as high
pressure remains entrenched over southeast Canada.

Wet bulbing effect will likely allow the precipitation type to
begin as all snow even over southern areas. However, significant
warming aloft will occur by late Monday allowing for some rain
and snow mix over far southern New Hampshire as the
precipitation will remain light. This mix will occur as boundary
layer temperatures warm into the 30s late in the day as a broad
area of low pressure heads towards the Great Lakes. A wave of
low pressure will likely form along the Maine coast however as
we head into the long term portion of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface warm front tries to lift northward Monday night, but
cold air damming at the surface will likely hold tough and force
this warm front aloft. Light snow ahead of the warm front moves
across the area with generally 1 to 3 inches expected.
Temperatures aloft warm above freezing after the warm front
passes, though any precipitation behind the warm front will
likely be in the form of light drizzle or freezing drizzle. Next
round of precipitation arrives on Tuesday as the complex low
pressure system arrives from the west. Steadier precipitation
picks up again, this time with a highly inverted low level
temperature profile supporting widespread freezing rain to the
north of the surface warm/coastal front. Models still are having
a tough time resolving this low level cold wedge of air, though
the CMC and NAM have done the best job showing the cold surface
temperatures hanging on through midday Tuesday in interior
western Maine. Have based the temperature and wind forecast off
of a blend of these two models with some manual adjustments.
Although we do expect much of the area to see some freezing
rain, the impact will likely be less than normal considering the
coating of snow expected beforehand. South of the warm/coastal
front temperatures will warm into the 40s to low 50s ending the
freezing rain threat. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder
considering moist adiabatic mid level temperature profile.

Cold/Occluded front pushes through the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening, ending the steadier precipitation. With winds
shifting to the west behind the front, any remaining cold air
damming will break allowing the dammed areas to warm up a bit
before colder temperatures arrive by Wednesday morning. Some
lingering snow showers are possible through the day Wednesday as
the upper low moves by. Colder temperatures expected Thursday
and Friday, though not all that cold by mid winter standards or
even this winter standards. Surface high pressure shifts across
the area Friday night allowing a southerly flow to bring a warm
up for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions today with areas of MVFR ceilings
in the mountains. Areas of MVFR ceilings develop later tonight
into Monday as onshore flow sets up.

Long Term...Expect IFR conditions with light snow moving across
the area Monday night. Snow changes to sleet and freezing rain
on Tuesday across interior portions, while southern, western,
and coastal sections will warm above freezing earlier in the day
Tuesday. Expect low level wind sheer in the cold air dammed
areas of interior western Maine and eastern New Hampshire. Cold
front moves through Tuesday evening bringing the steadier
precipitation to an end and a gradual improvement to VFR by
Wednesday. Lower ceilings may linger in the mountains right
through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night before
dispersing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gradient continues to relax. Have dropped SCAs for
the early morning hours. A few gusts near 25 kt are possible
well off the Midcoast region early, but these will be
diminishing as well.

Long Term...Warm front lifts north across the Gulf of Maine
Monday into Monday night. Low pressure moving east along the
front will allow southerly winds to increase to gale force ahead
of it. There is a low probability that some storm force gusts
could occur. The low will drag a cold front across the Gulf of
Maine late Tuesday, with winds behind the front possibly
reaching gale force again on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Many rivers remain frozen and/or affected by ice jams. With
additional liquid precipitation expected over much of the area
on Tuesday, it is possible that there could be more ice movement
and some minor flooding into Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211503
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1003 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain to
southern New England Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. This storm will be preceded by some mixed wintry precip
Monday and a risk of light icing across the interior Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and colder
weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above normal
temperatures likely return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

High thin clouds across the region with a few thicker spots. Low
clouds show up over Northern VT and NH, but a westerly flow
should keep that to our north. Also low clouds over lower
Michigan, but the pattern generating those will remain well to
our west this afternoon. High pressure centered off the SE USA
coast will remain in place with dry weather in Southern New
England through the rest of the day, along with varying amounts
of filtered sunshine through the high clouds.

Temps at 950 mb this morning were between 0C and 5C, which
supports max sfc temps in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...
Clouds will be on the increase as a warm front starts to push
NE toward the region this evening as low pressure will push out
of the mid Mississippi valley toward the Great Lakes overnight.
Will remain in a general W flow aloft, but will start to turn to
a more SW flow toward daybreak.

Leading edge of the overrunning precip may approach overnight,
but precip may hold off for most areas until Monday. However,
could see some light precip reach into western areas and,
depending upon the low level temp profile, could see a wintry
mix at the onset as colder air damming sets up there. This may
occur around the start of the early morning commute in the
Hartford/Springfield area and along the I-91 corridor. Expect
temps to fall back to the mid-upper 20s from N Mass down the CT
valley, ranging to 30-35 across RI and SE Mass.

Monday...
With high pressure remaining across central Quebec, cold air
may continue push down across the interior through the mid to
late morning hours (at least). So, will see a mix of snow, sleet
and possibly some freezing rain as the precip pushes NE during
the morning.

Some question how quickly the temps will rise above freezing,
though it does look like it should be relatively quick as winds
shift to SE-S by around midday or so. The high should remain
well N of the region, allowing for slowly rising temps during
the day.

Looks like the biggest threat for a mix of snow and freezing
rain for most of the day will be along the Route 2 corridor of
N Mass. Expecting light QPF amounts, generally less than 0.1
inches, but the potential of lingering light freezing rain
across northern areas and the higher terrain will be a big
concern.

May see some precip taper off across south coastal areas toward
evening as the warm front lifts into central New England.

Expect temps to reach near seasonal levels for highs on Monday,
at least for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Light icing risk Mon night across interior MA high terrain
* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Monday night...

Main concern for Mon night continues to be a risk of light
icing over portions of the interior. Precip expected to be light
as some mid level drying moves in while best forcing remains to
the west. In fact, ice crystal growth region is drying which
suggests more in the way of drizzle. There is a cold air damming
signature with sfc ridging nosing down from the NE with low
level northerly ageostrophic flow. Leaned toward 3km NAM for
temps as higher resolution datasets should better capture
localized cold air damming and it targets higher terrain in
western and northern MA for near freezing temps, possibly down
to higher elevations in NW Hartford county. This is where the
greatest threat of some light freezing rain/drizzle exists with
potential for a light icing event. This also is supported by hi-
res ECMWF temps. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
Mon night over the higher elevations.

Tuesday...

Potential for some light freezing rain lingering over higher
terrain on MA early, otherwise it`s all rain. Decent heavy rain
signal for Tue with PWAT anomaly +2SD and low level wind anomaly
up to +3SD. In addition, elevated instability at the nose of
the low level jet will likely result in some convective elements
with an isold t-storm possible. An area of heavy rain along the
pre-frontal low level jet will move west to east across SNE
with rain exiting the coast around evening. System is
progressive which should limit window of moderate to heavy
rainfall to about 6 hours. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50
inches still looks reasonable with heaviest amounts in western
New Eng. Given that most of the rain will probably fall in a 6
hour window, expect typical minor urban and poor drainage street
flooding, but river flooding is not anticipated.

The other concern is a period of strong winds across RI and
eastern MA as 65-70 kt low level jet moves up along the coastal
plain. Low level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic which will
allow for some mixing, especially where temps climb into the
mid 50s across RI and SE MA and in the vicinity of any heavier
convective elements. In addition, models indicate impressive
pressure falls on the order of 9 mb in 3 hours which will
enhance isallobaric component of the wind. Potential exists for
wind gusts up to 50 mph for a few hours in the afternoon across
RI and SE MA. CIPS analogs also support this with fairly decent
probs of 40+ kts across SE MA.

Wednesday through Friday...

Turning colder and blustery behind the storm with brisk NW
flow. Temps near normal Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri
as core of coldest air aloft settles over the region. Decent
shot of cold air with -15C at 850 mb into SNE on Thu. Highs
likely in the 20s Thu and blustery winds will make it feel
considerably colder. Wind chills Thu night/early Fri morning
dropping into the single numbers with subzero wind chills over
higher terrain. Looks mainly dry during this period.

Saturday...

High pres moves off the coast with SE CONUS ridge building
north into New Eng leading to a moderating trend with above
normal temps likely. Dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

This afternoon...High confidence. VFR. W-NW winds around 10 kt
or less as pressure gradient relaxes.

Tonight...Moderate confidence in general trends, lower in timing
arrival of precip. Mainly VFR through midnight, then MVFR-IFR
CIGS move into central and western areas. Expect mixed
snow/sleet/freezing rain and patchy fog to move into the CT
valley during the early morning commute.

Monday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR CIGS lower to IFR by around midday, with LIFR across
southern areas in the afternoon. VSBYS lower to MVFR-IFR by
midday. Mixed -SN/-PE/-FZRA to start, then changes to -RA near
and S of the Mass Pike by midday, with mixed -RA/-SN across N
Mass. May see a mix with -FZRA toward sunset along the N Mass
border. Light/variable wind becomes E-SE during the day.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. RA likely,
chance FZRA interior northern MA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt RI and SE MA. RA. Pockets of FZRA early
interior northern MA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts
to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

This afternoon... W-NW winds diminish as high pressure passes S
of New England. Seas will also continue to subside.

Tonight...
Light and variable winds eventually shift to S-SW toward
daybreak as low pressure remains well W of the waters. Seas
remain below 5 ft. Some visibility restrictions across the
western waters toward daybreak as light rain moves in.

Monday...
Expect E-SE winds to increase during the afternoon, up to 10-15
kt with some gusts to 20 kt. Seas will build up to 3 ft on the
eastern outer waters late in the day. Visibility lowers to 1-3
NM by mid to late morning in rain along with a brief mix with
snow on the eastern waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from NERFC late Saturday night, so updated
the Flood Statement to provide the latest information. Not too
much change from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211216
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
716 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south across northern New England
today and stall over southern New England tonight. Low pressure
moving through the Great Lakes will spread some light snow
across the region late Monday into Monday night, with the
stalled front lifting northward as a warm front. Low pressure
tracks east along this front on Tuesday with snow changing to
sleet and freezing rain before temperatures warm. As the low
moves east it will pull a cold front through the region Tuesday
night with colder weather arriving for the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...
Have updated the grids based on current conditions. Temperatures
have begun the morning very mild with readings above freezing in
most locations, even northern areas. Have adjusted afternoon
highs upwards based on this trend. Much of the cloud cover in
central Maine has dissipated with plenty of low clouds situated
over New Hampshire. Have adjusted the forecast accordingly for
this morning based on most recent satellite imagery. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the forecast.

Prev Disc...
Clouds will continue to streak across the forecast
area in the proximity of a weak, stalled out front. High clouds
will persist in the south with low cloudiness over central and
northern areas. Early morning fog in the Keene area is expected
to dissipate after sunrise.

Expect 30s in northern areas today, with lower to mid 40s in the
south allowing for more melting. The gradient will relax towards
the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Clouds will increase and thicken tonight as a warm air
advection pattern develops after midnight and the front begins
to move north.

This warm front will likely stall near the Massachusetts and
New Hampshire state lines tonight and Monday. This will allow a
nose of colder, drier air to filter into the region as high
pressure remains entrenched over southeast Canada.

Wet bulbing effect will likely allow the precipitation type to
begin as all snow even over southern areas. However, significant
warming aloft will occur by late Monday allowing for some rain
and snow mix over far southern New Hampshire as the
precipitation will remain light. This mix will occur as boundary
layer temperatures warm into the 30s late in the day as a broad
area of low pressure heads towards the Great Lakes. A wave of
low pressure will likely form along the Maine coast however as
we head into the long term portion of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface warm front tries to lift northward Monday night, but
cold air damming at the surface will likely hold tough and force
this warm front aloft. Light snow ahead of the warm front moves
across the area with generally 1 to 3 inches expected.
Temperatures aloft warm above freezing after the warm front
passes, though any precipitation behind the warm front will
likely be in the form of light drizzle or freezing drizzle. Next
round of precipitation arrives on Tuesday as the complex low
pressure system arrives from the west. Steadier precipitation
picks up again, this time with a highly inverted low level
temperature profile supporting widespread freezing rain to the
north of the surface warm/coastal front. Models still are having
a tough time resolving this low level cold wedge of air, though
the CMC and NAM have done the best job showing the cold surface
temperatures hanging on through midday Tuesday in interior
western Maine. Have based the temperature and wind forecast off
of a blend of these two models with some manual adjustments.
Although we do expect much of the area to see some freezing
rain, the impact will likely be less than normal considering the
coating of snow expected beforehand. South of the warm/coastal
front temperatures will warm into the 40s to low 50s ending the
freezing rain threat. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder
considering moist adiabatic mid level temperature profile.

Cold/Occluded front pushes through the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening, ending the steadier precipitation. With winds
shifting to the west behind the front, any remaining cold air
damming will break allowing the dammed areas to warm up a bit
before colder temperatures arrive by Wednesday morning. Some
lingering snow showers are possible through the day Wednesday as
the upper low moves by. Colder temperatures expected Thursday
and Friday, though not all that cold by mid winter standards or
even this winter standards. Surface high pressure shifts across
the area Friday night allowing a southerly flow to bring a warm
up for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions today with areas of MVFR ceilings
in the mountains. Areas of MVFR ceilings develop later tonight
into Monday as onshore flow sets up.

Long Term...Expect IFR conditions with light snow moving across
the area Monday night. Snow changes to sleet and freezing rain
on Tuesday across interior portions, while southern, western,
and coastal sections will warm above freezing earlier in the day
Tuesday. Expect low level wind sheer in the cold air dammed
areas of interior western Maine and eastern New Hampshire. Cold
front moves through Tuesday evening bringing the steadier
precipitation to an end and a gradual improvement to VFR by
Wednesday. Lower ceilings may linger in the mountains right
through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night before
dispersing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gradient continues to relax. Have dropped SCAs for
the early morning hours. A few gusts near 25 kt are possible
well off the Midcoast region early, but these will be
diminishing as well.

Long Term...Warm front lifts north across the Gulf of Maine
Monday into Monday night. Low pressure moving east along the
front will allow southerly winds to increase to gale force ahead
of it. There is a low probability that some storm force gusts
could occur. The low will drag a cold front across the Gulf of
Maine late Tuesday, with winds behind the front possibly
reaching gale force again on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Many rivers remain frozen and/or affected by ice jams. With
additional liquid precipitation expected over much of the area
on Tuesday, it is possible that there could be more ice movement
and some minor flooding into Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Kimble/Cannon




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211216
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
716 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south across northern New England
today and stall over southern New England tonight. Low pressure
moving through the Great Lakes will spread some light snow
across the region late Monday into Monday night, with the
stalled front lifting northward as a warm front. Low pressure
tracks east along this front on Tuesday with snow changing to
sleet and freezing rain before temperatures warm. As the low
moves east it will pull a cold front through the region Tuesday
night with colder weather arriving for the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...
Have updated the grids based on current conditions. Temperatures
have begun the morning very mild with readings above freezing in
most locations, even northern areas. Have adjusted afternoon
highs upwards based on this trend. Much of the cloud cover in
central Maine has dissipated with plenty of low clouds situated
over New Hampshire. Have adjusted the forecast accordingly for
this morning based on most recent satellite imagery. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the forecast.

Prev Disc...
Clouds will continue to streak across the forecast
area in the proximity of a weak, stalled out front. High clouds
will persist in the south with low cloudiness over central and
northern areas. Early morning fog in the Keene area is expected
to dissipate after sunrise.

Expect 30s in northern areas today, with lower to mid 40s in the
south allowing for more melting. The gradient will relax towards
the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Clouds will increase and thicken tonight as a warm air
advection pattern develops after midnight and the front begins
to move north.

This warm front will likely stall near the Massachusetts and
New Hampshire state lines tonight and Monday. This will allow a
nose of colder, drier air to filter into the region as high
pressure remains entrenched over southeast Canada.

Wet bulbing effect will likely allow the precipitation type to
begin as all snow even over southern areas. However, significant
warming aloft will occur by late Monday allowing for some rain
and snow mix over far southern New Hampshire as the
precipitation will remain light. This mix will occur as boundary
layer temperatures warm into the 30s late in the day as a broad
area of low pressure heads towards the Great Lakes. A wave of
low pressure will likely form along the Maine coast however as
we head into the long term portion of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface warm front tries to lift northward Monday night, but
cold air damming at the surface will likely hold tough and force
this warm front aloft. Light snow ahead of the warm front moves
across the area with generally 1 to 3 inches expected.
Temperatures aloft warm above freezing after the warm front
passes, though any precipitation behind the warm front will
likely be in the form of light drizzle or freezing drizzle. Next
round of precipitation arrives on Tuesday as the complex low
pressure system arrives from the west. Steadier precipitation
picks up again, this time with a highly inverted low level
temperature profile supporting widespread freezing rain to the
north of the surface warm/coastal front. Models still are having
a tough time resolving this low level cold wedge of air, though
the CMC and NAM have done the best job showing the cold surface
temperatures hanging on through midday Tuesday in interior
western Maine. Have based the temperature and wind forecast off
of a blend of these two models with some manual adjustments.
Although we do expect much of the area to see some freezing
rain, the impact will likely be less than normal considering the
coating of snow expected beforehand. South of the warm/coastal
front temperatures will warm into the 40s to low 50s ending the
freezing rain threat. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder
considering moist adiabatic mid level temperature profile.

Cold/Occluded front pushes through the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening, ending the steadier precipitation. With winds
shifting to the west behind the front, any remaining cold air
damming will break allowing the dammed areas to warm up a bit
before colder temperatures arrive by Wednesday morning. Some
lingering snow showers are possible through the day Wednesday as
the upper low moves by. Colder temperatures expected Thursday
and Friday, though not all that cold by mid winter standards or
even this winter standards. Surface high pressure shifts across
the area Friday night allowing a southerly flow to bring a warm
up for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions today with areas of MVFR ceilings
in the mountains. Areas of MVFR ceilings develop later tonight
into Monday as onshore flow sets up.

Long Term...Expect IFR conditions with light snow moving across
the area Monday night. Snow changes to sleet and freezing rain
on Tuesday across interior portions, while southern, western,
and coastal sections will warm above freezing earlier in the day
Tuesday. Expect low level wind sheer in the cold air dammed
areas of interior western Maine and eastern New Hampshire. Cold
front moves through Tuesday evening bringing the steadier
precipitation to an end and a gradual improvement to VFR by
Wednesday. Lower ceilings may linger in the mountains right
through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night before
dispersing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gradient continues to relax. Have dropped SCAs for
the early morning hours. A few gusts near 25 kt are possible
well off the Midcoast region early, but these will be
diminishing as well.

Long Term...Warm front lifts north across the Gulf of Maine
Monday into Monday night. Low pressure moving east along the
front will allow southerly winds to increase to gale force ahead
of it. There is a low probability that some storm force gusts
could occur. The low will drag a cold front across the Gulf of
Maine late Tuesday, with winds behind the front possibly
reaching gale force again on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Many rivers remain frozen and/or affected by ice jams. With
additional liquid precipitation expected over much of the area
on Tuesday, it is possible that there could be more ice movement
and some minor flooding into Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Kimble/Cannon




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211129
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
629 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain to
southern New England Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. This storm will be preceded by some mixed wintry precip
Monday and a risk of light icing across the interior Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and colder
weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above normal
temperatures likely return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM update...
High clouds continue to stream across the region. The overall
westerly mid level wind flow remains across the region, with H5
heights slowly rising during the day. Large high pressure center
will push off the mid Atlantic and SE coast during the day.

The high clouds will remain across the region as are slowly
lifts to the north, so will see partly to mostly sunny skies.
Highs will range through the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...
Clouds will be on the increase as a warm front starts to push
NE toward the region this evening as low pressure will push out
of the mid Mississippi valley toward the Great Lakes overnight.
Will remain in a general W flow aloft, but will start to turn to
a more SW flow toward daybreak.

Leading edge of the overrunning precip may approach overnight,
but precip may hold off for most areas until Monday. However,
could see some light precip reach into western areas and,
depending upon the low level temp profile, could see a wintry
mix at the onset as colder air damming sets up there. This may
occur around the start of the early morning commute in the
Hartford/Springfield area and along the I-91 corridor. Expect
temps to fall back to the mid-upper 20s from N Mass down the CT
valley, ranging to 30-35 across RI and SE Mass.

Monday...
With high pressure remaining across central Quebec, cold air
may continue push down across the interior through the mid to
late morning hours (at least). So, will see a mix of snow, sleet
and possibly some freezing rain as the precip pushes NE during
the morning.

Some question how quickly the temps will rise above freezing,
though it does look like it should be relatively quick as winds
shift to SE-S by around midday or so. The high should remain
well N of the region, allowing for slowly rising temps during
the day.

Looks like the biggest threat for a mix of snow and freezing
rain for most of the day will be along the Route 2 corridor of
N Mass. Expecting light QPF amounts, generally less than 0.1
inches, but the potential of lingering light freezing rain
across northern areas and the higher terrain will be a big
concern.

May see some precip taper off across south coastal areas toward
evening as the warm front lifts into central New England.

Expect temps to reach near seasonal levels for highs on Monday,
at least for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Light icing risk Mon night across interior MA high terrain
* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Monday night...

Main concern for Mon night continues to be a risk of light
icing over portions of the interior. Precip expected to be light
as some mid level drying moves in while best forcing remains to
the west. In fact, ice crystal growth region is drying which
suggests more in the way of drizzle. There is a cold air damming
signature with sfc ridging nosing down from the NE with low
level northerly ageostrophic flow. Leaned toward 3km NAM for
temps as higher resolution datasets should better capture
localized cold air damming and it targets higher terrain in
western and northern MA for near freezing temps, possibly down
to higher elevations in NW Hartford county. This is where the
greatest threat of some light freezing rain/drizzle exists with
potential for a light icing event. This also is supported by hi-
res ECMWF temps. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
Mon night over the higher elevations.

Tuesday...

Potential for some light freezing rain lingering over higher
terrain on MA early, otherwise it`s all rain. Decent heavy rain
signal for Tue with PWAT anomaly +2SD and low level wind anomaly
up to +3SD. In addition, elevated instability at the nose of
the low level jet will likely result in some convective elements
with an isold t-storm possible. An area of heavy rain along the
pre-frontal low level jet will move west to east across SNE
with rain exiting the coast around evening. System is
progressive which should limit window of moderate to heavy
rainfall to about 6 hours. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50
inches still looks reasonable with heaviest amounts in western
New Eng. Given that most of the rain will probably fall in a 6
hour window, expect typical minor urban and poor drainage street
flooding, but river flooding is not anticipated.

The other concern is a period of strong winds across RI and
eastern MA as 65-70 kt low level jet moves up along the coastal
plain. Low level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic which will
allow for some mixing, especially where temps climb into the
mid 50s across RI and SE MA and in the vicinity of any heavier
convective elements. In addition, models indicate impressive
pressure falls on the order of 9 mb in 3 hours which will
enhance isallobaric component of the wind. Potential exists for
wind gusts up to 50 mph for a few hours in the afternoon across
RI and SE MA. CIPS analogs also support this with fairly decent
probs of 40+ kts across SE MA.

Wednesday through Friday...

Turning colder and blustery behind the storm with brisk NW
flow. Temps near normal Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri
as core of coldest air aloft settles over the region. Decent
shot of cold air with -15C at 850 mb into SNE on Thu. Highs
likely in the 20s Thu and blustery winds will make it feel
considerably colder. Wind chills Thu night/early Fri morning
dropping into the single numbers with subzero wind chills over
higher terrain. Looks mainly dry during this period.

Saturday...

High pres moves off the coast with SE CONUS ridge building
north into New Eng leading to a moderating trend with above
normal temps likely. Dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Through 12Z...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS develop in patchy fog in
normally prone areas of the CT valley, possible across portions
of interior E Mass for a few hours prior to sunrise.

Today...High confidence.
VFR. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions should improve by around
14Z. W-NW winds around 10 kt or less as pressure gradient
relaxes.

Tonight...Moderate confidence in general trends, lower in timing
arrival of precip.
Mainly VFR through midnight, then MVFR-IFR CIGS move into
central and western areas. Expect mixed snow/sleet/freezing
rain and patchy fog to move into the CT valley during the early
morning commute.

Monday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR CIGS lower to IFR by around midday, with LIFR across
southern areas in the afternoon. VSBYS lower to MVFR-IFR by
midday. Mixed -SN/-PE/-FZRA to start, then changes to -RA near
and S of the Mass Pike by midday, with mixed -RA/-SN across N
Mass. May see a mix with -FZRA toward sunset along the N Mass
border. Light/variable wind becomes E-SE during the day.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. RA likely,
chance FZRA interior northern MA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt RI and SE MA. RA. Pockets of FZRA early
interior northern MA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts
to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...
Leftover 5 ft seas along the southern outer waters should
subside by around 7 AM. Otherwise NW winds up to around 10-15
kt.

Today...
W-NW winds diminish as high pressure passes S of New England
today. Seas will also continue to subside.

Tonight...
Light and variable winds eventually shift to S-SW toward
daybreak as low pressure remains well W of the waters. Seas
remain below 5 ft. Some visibility restrictions across the
western waters toward daybreak as light rain moves in.

Monday...
Expect E-SE winds to increase during the afternoon, up to 10-15
kt with some gusts to 20 kt. Seas will build up to 3 ft on the
eastern outer waters late in the day. Visibility lowers to 1-3
NM by mid to late morning in rain along with a brief mix with
snow on the eastern waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from NERFC late Saturday night, so updated
the Flood Statement to provide the latest information. Not too
much change from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211129
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
629 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain to
southern New England Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. This storm will be preceded by some mixed wintry precip
Monday and a risk of light icing across the interior Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and colder
weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above normal
temperatures likely return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM update...
High clouds continue to stream across the region. The overall
westerly mid level wind flow remains across the region, with H5
heights slowly rising during the day. Large high pressure center
will push off the mid Atlantic and SE coast during the day.

The high clouds will remain across the region as are slowly
lifts to the north, so will see partly to mostly sunny skies.
Highs will range through the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...
Clouds will be on the increase as a warm front starts to push
NE toward the region this evening as low pressure will push out
of the mid Mississippi valley toward the Great Lakes overnight.
Will remain in a general W flow aloft, but will start to turn to
a more SW flow toward daybreak.

Leading edge of the overrunning precip may approach overnight,
but precip may hold off for most areas until Monday. However,
could see some light precip reach into western areas and,
depending upon the low level temp profile, could see a wintry
mix at the onset as colder air damming sets up there. This may
occur around the start of the early morning commute in the
Hartford/Springfield area and along the I-91 corridor. Expect
temps to fall back to the mid-upper 20s from N Mass down the CT
valley, ranging to 30-35 across RI and SE Mass.

Monday...
With high pressure remaining across central Quebec, cold air
may continue push down across the interior through the mid to
late morning hours (at least). So, will see a mix of snow, sleet
and possibly some freezing rain as the precip pushes NE during
the morning.

Some question how quickly the temps will rise above freezing,
though it does look like it should be relatively quick as winds
shift to SE-S by around midday or so. The high should remain
well N of the region, allowing for slowly rising temps during
the day.

Looks like the biggest threat for a mix of snow and freezing
rain for most of the day will be along the Route 2 corridor of
N Mass. Expecting light QPF amounts, generally less than 0.1
inches, but the potential of lingering light freezing rain
across northern areas and the higher terrain will be a big
concern.

May see some precip taper off across south coastal areas toward
evening as the warm front lifts into central New England.

Expect temps to reach near seasonal levels for highs on Monday,
at least for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Light icing risk Mon night across interior MA high terrain
* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Monday night...

Main concern for Mon night continues to be a risk of light
icing over portions of the interior. Precip expected to be light
as some mid level drying moves in while best forcing remains to
the west. In fact, ice crystal growth region is drying which
suggests more in the way of drizzle. There is a cold air damming
signature with sfc ridging nosing down from the NE with low
level northerly ageostrophic flow. Leaned toward 3km NAM for
temps as higher resolution datasets should better capture
localized cold air damming and it targets higher terrain in
western and northern MA for near freezing temps, possibly down
to higher elevations in NW Hartford county. This is where the
greatest threat of some light freezing rain/drizzle exists with
potential for a light icing event. This also is supported by hi-
res ECMWF temps. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
Mon night over the higher elevations.

Tuesday...

Potential for some light freezing rain lingering over higher
terrain on MA early, otherwise it`s all rain. Decent heavy rain
signal for Tue with PWAT anomaly +2SD and low level wind anomaly
up to +3SD. In addition, elevated instability at the nose of
the low level jet will likely result in some convective elements
with an isold t-storm possible. An area of heavy rain along the
pre-frontal low level jet will move west to east across SNE
with rain exiting the coast around evening. System is
progressive which should limit window of moderate to heavy
rainfall to about 6 hours. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50
inches still looks reasonable with heaviest amounts in western
New Eng. Given that most of the rain will probably fall in a 6
hour window, expect typical minor urban and poor drainage street
flooding, but river flooding is not anticipated.

The other concern is a period of strong winds across RI and
eastern MA as 65-70 kt low level jet moves up along the coastal
plain. Low level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic which will
allow for some mixing, especially where temps climb into the
mid 50s across RI and SE MA and in the vicinity of any heavier
convective elements. In addition, models indicate impressive
pressure falls on the order of 9 mb in 3 hours which will
enhance isallobaric component of the wind. Potential exists for
wind gusts up to 50 mph for a few hours in the afternoon across
RI and SE MA. CIPS analogs also support this with fairly decent
probs of 40+ kts across SE MA.

Wednesday through Friday...

Turning colder and blustery behind the storm with brisk NW
flow. Temps near normal Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri
as core of coldest air aloft settles over the region. Decent
shot of cold air with -15C at 850 mb into SNE on Thu. Highs
likely in the 20s Thu and blustery winds will make it feel
considerably colder. Wind chills Thu night/early Fri morning
dropping into the single numbers with subzero wind chills over
higher terrain. Looks mainly dry during this period.

Saturday...

High pres moves off the coast with SE CONUS ridge building
north into New Eng leading to a moderating trend with above
normal temps likely. Dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Through 12Z...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS develop in patchy fog in
normally prone areas of the CT valley, possible across portions
of interior E Mass for a few hours prior to sunrise.

Today...High confidence.
VFR. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions should improve by around
14Z. W-NW winds around 10 kt or less as pressure gradient
relaxes.

Tonight...Moderate confidence in general trends, lower in timing
arrival of precip.
Mainly VFR through midnight, then MVFR-IFR CIGS move into
central and western areas. Expect mixed snow/sleet/freezing
rain and patchy fog to move into the CT valley during the early
morning commute.

Monday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR CIGS lower to IFR by around midday, with LIFR across
southern areas in the afternoon. VSBYS lower to MVFR-IFR by
midday. Mixed -SN/-PE/-FZRA to start, then changes to -RA near
and S of the Mass Pike by midday, with mixed -RA/-SN across N
Mass. May see a mix with -FZRA toward sunset along the N Mass
border. Light/variable wind becomes E-SE during the day.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. RA likely,
chance FZRA interior northern MA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt RI and SE MA. RA. Pockets of FZRA early
interior northern MA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts
to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...
Leftover 5 ft seas along the southern outer waters should
subside by around 7 AM. Otherwise NW winds up to around 10-15
kt.

Today...
W-NW winds diminish as high pressure passes S of New England
today. Seas will also continue to subside.

Tonight...
Light and variable winds eventually shift to S-SW toward
daybreak as low pressure remains well W of the waters. Seas
remain below 5 ft. Some visibility restrictions across the
western waters toward daybreak as light rain moves in.

Monday...
Expect E-SE winds to increase during the afternoon, up to 10-15
kt with some gusts to 20 kt. Seas will build up to 3 ft on the
eastern outer waters late in the day. Visibility lowers to 1-3
NM by mid to late morning in rain along with a brief mix with
snow on the eastern waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from NERFC late Saturday night, so updated
the Flood Statement to provide the latest information. Not too
much change from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210939
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
439 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain to
southern New England Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. This storm will be preceded by some mixed wintry precip
Monday and a risk of light icing across the interior Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and colder
weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above normal
temperatures likely return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Mid and high clouds continue to stream across the region,
though noting southern edge of clouds has lifted to near or
just S of the Mass Pike, with mainly clear skies in place
across N CT/RI/SE Mass as seen on latest GOES-16 Nighttime
Microphysics RGB composite imagery. Noting some lower clouds
working east into the Berkshires as well.

The overall westerly mid level wind flow remains across the
region, with H5 heights slowly rising during the day. Large
high pressure center will push off the mid Atlantic and SE
coast during the day.

The clouds across northern areas this morning should lift N
during the afternoon, so will see at least some sunshine during
the day. After chilly readings early this morning across some
of the region, temps will recover, reaching the 40s at most
locations though may hold in the upper 30s across NW Mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

Tonight...
Clouds will be on the increase as a warm front starts to push
NE toward the region this evening as low pressure will push out
of the mid Mississippi valley toward the Great Lakes overnight.
Will remain in a general W flow aloft, but will start to turn to
a more SW flow toward daybreak.

Leading edge of the overrunning precip may approach overnight,
but precip may hold off for most areas until Monday. However,
could see some light precip reach into western areas and,
depending upon the low level temp profile, could see a wintry
mix at the onset as colder air damming sets up there. This may
occur around the start of the early morning commute in the
Hartford/Springfield area and along the I-91 corridor. Expect
temps to fall back to the mid-upper 20s from N Mass down the CT
valley, ranging to 30-35 across RI and SE Mass.

Monday...
With high pressure remaining across central Quebec, cold air
may continue push down across the interior through the mid to
late morning hours (at least). So, will see a mix of snow, sleet
and possibly some freezing rain as the precip pushes NE during
the morning.

Some question how quickly the temps will rise above freezing,
though it does look like it should be relatively quick as winds
shift to SE-S by around midday or so. The high should remain
well N of the region, allowing for slowly rising temps during
the day.

Looks like the biggest threat for a mix of snow and freezing
rain for most of the day will be along the Route 2 corridor of
N Mass. Expecting light QPF amounts, generally less than 0.1
inches, but the potential of lingering light freezing rain
across northern areas and the higher terrain will be a big
concern.

May see some precip taper off across south coastal areas toward
evening as the warm front lifts into central New England.

Expect temps to reach near seasonal levels for highs on Monday,
at least for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Light icing risk Mon night across interior MA high terrain
* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Monday night...

Main concern for Mon night continues to be a risk of light
icing over portions of the interior. Precip expected to be light
as some mid level drying moves in while best forcing remains to
the west. In fact, ice crystal growth region is drying which
suggests more in the way of drizzle. There is a cold air damming
signature with sfc ridging nosing down from the NE with low
level northerly ageostrophic flow. Leaned toward 3km NAM for
temps as higher resolution datasets should better capture
localized cold air damming and it targets higher terrain in
western and northern MA for near freezing temps, possibly down
to higher elevations in NW Hartford county. This is where the
greatest threat of some light freezing rain/drizzle exists with
potential for a light icing event. This also is supported by hi-
res ECMWF temps. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
Mon night over the higher elevations.

Tuesday...

Potential for some light freezing rain lingering over higher
terrain on MA early, otherwise it`s all rain. Decent heavy rain
signal for Tue with PWAT anomaly +2SD and low level wind anomaly
up to +3SD. In addition, elevated instability at the nose of
the low level jet will likely result in some convective elements
with an isold t-storm possible. An area of heavy rain along the
pre-frontal low level jet will move west to east across SNE
with rain exiting the coast around evening. System is
progressive which should limit window of moderate to heavy
rainfall to about 6 hours. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50
inches still looks reasonable with heaviest amounts in western
New Eng. Given that most of the rain will probably fall in a 6
hour window, expect typical minor urban and poor drainage street
flooding, but river flooding is not anticipated.

The other concern is a period of strong winds across RI and
eastern MA as 65-70 kt low level jet moves up along the coastal
plain. Low level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic which will
allow for some mixing, especially where temps climb into the
mid 50s across RI and SE MA and in the vicinity of any heavier
convective elements. In addition, models indicate impressive
pressure falls on the order of 9 mb in 3 hours which will
enhance isallobaric component of the wind. Potential exists for
wind gusts up to 50 mph for a few hours in the afternoon across
RI and SE MA. CIPS analogs also support this with fairly decent
probs of 40+ kts across SE MA.

Wednesday through Friday...

Turning colder and blustery behind the storm with brisk NW
flow. Temps near normal Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri
as core of coldest air aloft settles over the region. Decent
shot of cold air with -15C at 850 mb into SNE on Thu. Highs
likely in the 20s Thu and blustery winds will make it feel
considerably colder. Wind chills Thu night/early Fri morning
dropping into the single numbers with subzero wind chills over
higher terrain. Looks mainly dry during this period.

Saturday...

High pres moves off the coast with SE CONUS ridge building
north into New Eng leading to a moderating trend with above
normal temps likely. Dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Through 12Z...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS develop in patchy fog in
normally prone areas of the CT valley, possible across portions
of interior E Mass for a few hours prior to sunrise.

Today...High confidence.
VFR. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions should improve by around
14Z. W-NW winds around 10 kt or less as pressure gradient
relaxes.

Tonight...Moderate confidence in general trends, lower in timing
arrival of precip.
Mainly VFR through midnight, then MVFR-IFR CIGS move into
central and western areas. Expect mixed snow/sleet/freezing
rain and patchy fog to move into the CT valley during the early
morning commute.

Monday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR CIGS lower to IFR by around midday, with LIFR across
southern areas in the afternoon. VSBYS lower to MVFR-IFR by
midday. Mixed -SN/-PE/-FZRA to start, then changes to -RA near
and S of the Mass Pike by midday, with mixed -RA/-SN across N
Mass. May see a mix with -FZRA toward sunset along the N Mass
border. Light/variable wind becomes E-SE during the day.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. RA likely,
chance FZRA interior northern MA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt RI and SE MA. RA. Pockets of FZRA early
interior northern MA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts
to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...
Leftover 5 ft seas along the southern outer waters should
subside by around 7 AM. Otherwise NW winds up to around 10-15
kt.

Today...
W-NW winds diminish as high pressure passes S of New England
today. Seas will also continue to subside.

Tonight...
Light and variable winds eventually shift to S-SW toward
daybreak as low pressure remains well W of the waters. Seas
remain below 5 ft. Some visibility restrictions across the
western waters toward daybreak as light rain moves in.

Monday...
Expect E-SE winds to increase during the afternoon, up to 10-15
kt with some gusts to 20 kt. Seas will build up to 3 ft on the
eastern outer waters late in the day. Visibility lowers to 1-3
NM by mid to late morning in rain along with a brief mix with
snow on the eastern waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from NERFC late Saturday night, so updated
the Flood Statement to provide the latest information. Not too
much change from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210832
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
332 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south across northern New England
today and stall over southern New England tonight. Low pressure
moving through the Great Lakes will spread some light snow
across the region late Monday into Monday night, with the
stalled front lifting northward as a warm front. Low pressure
tracks east along this front on Tuesday with snow changing to
sleet and freezing rain before temperatures warm. As the low
moves east it will pull a cold front through the region Tuesday
night with colder weather arriving for the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Clouds will continue to streak across the forecast area in the
proximity of a weak, stalled out front. High clouds will persist
in the south with low cloudiness over central and northern
areas. Early morning fog in the Keene area is expected to
dissipate after sunrise.

Expect 30s in northern areas today, with lower to mid 40s in the
south allowing for more melting. The gradient will relax towards
the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
Clouds will increase and thicken tonight as a warm air
advection pattern develops after midnight and the front begins
to move north.

This warm front will likely stall near the Massachusetts and
New Hampshire state lines tonight and Monday. This will allow a
nose of colder, drier air to filter into the region as high
pressure remains entrenched over southeast Canada.

Wet bulbing effect will likely allow the precipitation type to
begin as all snow even over southern areas. However, significant
warming aloft will occur by late Monday allowing for some rain
and snow mix over far southern New Hampshire as the
precipitation will remain light. This mix will occur as boundary
layer temperatures warm into the 30s late in the day as a broad
area of low pressure heads towards the Great Lakes. A wave of
low pressure will likely form along the Maine coast however as
we head into the long term portion of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface warm front tries to lift northward Monday night, but
cold air damming at the surface will likely hold tough and force
this warm front aloft. Light snow ahead of the warm front moves
across the area with generally 1 to 3 inches expected.
Temperatures aloft warm above freezing after the warm front
passes, though any precipitation behind the warm front will
likely be in the form of light drizzle or freezing drizzle. Next
round of precipitation arrives on Tuesday as the complex low
pressure system arrives from the west. Steadier precipitation
picks up again, this time with a highly inverted low level
temperature profile supporting widespread freezing rain to the
north of the surface warm/coastal front. Models still are having
a tough time resolving this low level cold wedge of air, though
the CMC and NAM have done the best job showing the cold surface
temperatures hanging on through midday Tuesday in interior
western Maine. Have based the temperature and wind forecast off
of a blend of these two models with some manual adjustments.
Although we do expect much of the area to see some freezing
rain, the impact will likely be less than normal considering the
coating of snow expected beforehand. South of the warm/coastal
front temperatures will warm into the 40s to low 50s ending the
freezing rain threat. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder
considering moist adiabatic mid level temperature profile.

Cold/Occluded front pushes through the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening, ending the steadier precipitation. With winds
shifting to the west behind the front, any remaining cold air
damming will break allowing the dammed areas to warm up a bit
before colder temperatures arrive by Wednesday morning. Some
lingering snow showers are possible through the day Wednesday as
the upper low moves by. Colder temperatures expected Thursday
and Friday, though not all that cold by mid winter standards or
even this winter standards. Surface high pressure shifts across
the area Friday night allowing a southerly flow to bring a warm
up for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions today with areas of MVFR ceilings
in the mountains. Areas of MVFR ceilings develop later tonight
into Monday as onshore flow sets up.

Long Term...Expect IFR conditions with light snow moving across
the area Monday night. Snow changes to sleet and freezing rain
on Tuesday across interior portions, while southern, western,
and coastal sections will warm above freezing earlier in the day
Tuesday. Expect low level wind sheer in the cold air dammed
areas of interior western Maine and eastern New Hampshire. Cold
front moves through Tuesday evening bringing the steadier
precipitation to an end and a gradual improvement to VFR by
Wednesday. Lower ceilings may linger in the mountains right
through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night before
dispersing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gradient continues to relax. Have dropped SCAs for
the early morning hours. A few gusts near 25 kt are possible
well off the Midcoast region early, but these will be
diminishing as well.

Long Term...Warm front lifts north across the Gulf of Maine
Monday into Monday night. Low pressure moving east along the
front will allow southerly winds to increase to gale force ahead
of it. There is a low probability that some storm force gusts
could occur. The low will drag a cold front across the Gulf of
Maine late Tuesday, with winds behind the front possibly
reaching gale force again on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Many rivers remain frozen and/or affected by ice jams. With
additional liquid precipitation expected over much of the area
on Tuesday, it is possible that there could be more ice movement
and some minor flooding into Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cannon
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Kimble




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210802
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
302 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain to
southern New England Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. This storm will be preceded by some mixed wintry precip
Monday and a risk of light icing across the interior Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and colder
weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above normal
temperatures likely return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
105 AM Update...

Appears the southern edge of the high clouds has been slowly
drifting northward across the region, with clear or mostly clear
skies being reported across S CT into the NYC area at 06Z as
seen on GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB composite and fog
product imagery. An area of clear or few cirrus clouds will
cross the region out of central and S NY/E PA/N NJ for the next
few hours. However, need to watch area of low clouds moving
steadily eastward from W PA/WV/W NY, which should push into the
CT valley during the morning hours to midday.

Noting patchy fog has developed across the normally foggy
locations of KEEN and KORE at 06Z. May see more patchy fog
develop across the normally prone areas of the CT valley and
possibly into N central and NE Mass through the remainder of
the night.

Where skies have cleared, temps have fallen to the 20s to lower
30s, while holding in the mid-upper 30s along coastal areas.

Light/variable (mainly W-NW) to calm winds will continue through
daybreak. Have updated previous forecast to bring conditions
current.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure in place today with fair skies and light wind.
Moisture fields do show some increasing mid and high level
moisture, so expect some increasing clouds mostly in the
afternoon/evening. With mixing to 950 mb, expect max temps in
the mid to upper 40s, a few spots around 50.

The clouds increase tonight. A cold front in Northern New
England dips south and may slip through Southern New England.
But with the upper flow west-east we do not expect a lot of push
to it, and potential that it stalls either over or near us. The
net change in the airmass is nil, so min temps Sunday night
should be similar to tonight.

Low level southerly winds reach only to Western NY/PA by 12Z
Monday...still west winds over us at that time...which means
little lift to be generated Sunday night. So the probability of
precip should be low. If the precipitation were to move in
faster, low level temperatures would support a mix with sleet
and freezing rain. But that scenario looks unlikely at this
time.

Our forecast shows slight chance pops in Western MA/CT by 12Z
Monday, and that may be overplaying the likelihood.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Light icing risk Mon night across interior MA high terrain
* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE New Eng
* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday
* Dry/blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu/Fri

Monday night...

Main concern for Mon night continues to be a risk of light icing
over portions of the interior. Precip expected to be light as some
mid level drying moves in while best forcing remains to the west. In
fact, ice crystal growth region is drying which suggests more in the
way of drizzle. There is a cold air damming signature with sfc
ridging nosing down from the NE with low level northerly
ageostrophic flow. Leaned toward 3km NAM for temps as higher
resolution datasets should better capture localized cold air damming
and it targets higher terrain in western and northern MA for near
freezing temps, possibly down to higher elevations in NW Hartford
county. This is where the greatest threat of some light freezing
rain/drizzle exists with potential for a light icing event. This
also is supported by hi-res ECMWF temps. Icy roads and walkways
certainly a possibility Mon night over the higher elevations.

Tuesday...

Potential for some light freezing rain lingering over higher terrain
on MA early, otherwise it`s all rain. Decent heavy rain signal for
Tue with PWAT anomaly +2SD and low level wind anomaly up to +3SD. In
addition, elevated instability at the nose of the low level jet will
likely result in some convective elements with an isold t-storm
possible. An area of heavy rain along the pre-frontal low level jet
will move west to east across SNE with rain exiting the coast around
evening. System is progressive which should limit window of moderate
to heavy rainfall to about 6 hours. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50
inches still looks reasonable with heaviest amounts in western New
Eng. Given that most of the rain will probably fall in a 6 hour
window, expect typical minor urban and poor drainage street
flooding, but river flooding is not anticipated.

The other concern is a period of strong winds across RI and eastern
MA as 65-70 kt low level jet moves up along the coastal plain. Low
level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic which will allow for some
mixing, especially where temps climb into the mid 50s across RI and
SE MA and in the vicinity of any heavier convective elements. In
addition, models indicate impressive pressure falls on the order of
9 mb in 3 hours which will enhance isallobaric component of the
wind. Potential exists for wind gusts up to 50 mph for a few hours
in the afternoon across RI and SE MA. CIPS analogs also support this
with fairly decent probs of 40+ kts across SE MA.

Wednesday through Friday...

Turning colder and blustery behind the storm with brisk NW flow.
Temps near normal Wed, then trending below normal Thu/Fri as core of
coldest air aloft settles over the region. Decent shot of cold air
with -15C at 850 mb into SNE on Thu. Highs likely in the 20s Thu and
blustery winds will make it feel considerably colder. Wind chills
Thu night/early Fri morning dropping into the single numbers with
subzero wind chills over higher terrain. Looks mainly dry during
this period.

Saturday...

High pres moves off the coast with SE CONUS ridge building north
into New Eng leading to a moderating trend with above normal temps
likely. Dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Through 12Z...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS develop in patchy fog in
normally prone areas of the CT valley, possible across portions
of interior E Mass for a few hours prior to sunrise.

Today...High confidence.
VFR. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions should improve by around
14Z. W-NW winds around 10 kt or less as pressure gradient
relaxes.

Tonight...Moderate confidence in general trends, lower in timing
arrival of precip.
Mainly VFR through midnight, then MVFR-IFR conditions move into
the CT valley in fog and mixed snow/sleet/freezing rain.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. RA likely,
chance FZRA interior northern MA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt RI and SE MA. RA. Pockets of FZRA early
interior northern MA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts
to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...
Winds have diminished below small craft levels across the near
shore waters so the Small Craft Advisory ended at 10 PM. Still
noting some gusts up to 20-25 kt and seas up to 5-6 ft over the
open waters which will subside through the remainder of the
night.

Today and Tonight...
High pressure over the waters should provide fair weather with
light winds and seas below 5 feet. Clouds will increase
overnight, but support for any precipitation will remain well to
our west during the night.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from NERFC late tonight so updated the Flood
Statement to provide the latest information. Not too much change
from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210633
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
133 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring the potential for heavy
rain and a period of strong winds on the coast Tuesday, but this
will be preceded by a risk of a light wintry mix/ice across the
interior Monday into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and
colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above
normal temperatures likely return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

105 AM Update...

Appears the southern edge of the high clouds has been slowly
drifting northward across the region, with clear or mostly clear
skies being reported across S CT into the NYC area at 06Z as
seen on GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB composite and fog
product imagery. An area of clear or few cirrus clouds will
cross the region out of central and S NY/E PA/N NJ for the next
few hours. However, need to watch area of low clouds moving
steadily eastward from W PA/WV/W NY, which should push into the
CT valley during the morning hours to midday.

Noting patchy fog has developed across the normally foggy
locations of KEEN and KORE at 06Z. May see more patchy fog
develop across the normally prone areas of the CT valley and
possibly into N central and NE Mass through the remainder of
the night.

Where skies have cleared, temps have fallen to the 20s to lower
30s, while holding in the mid-upper 30s along coastal areas.

Light/variable (mainly W-NW) to calm winds will continue through
daybreak. Have updated previous forecast to bring conditions
current.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

High pressure in place today with fair skies and light wind.
Moisture fields do show some increasing mid and high level
moisture, so expect some increasing clouds mostly in the
afternoon/evening. With mixing to 950 mb, expect max temps in
the mid to upper 40s, a few spots around 50.

The clouds increase tonight. A cold front in Northern New
England dips south and may slip through Southern New England.
But with the upper flow west-east we do not expect a lot of push
to it, and potential that it stalls either over or near us. The
net change in the airmass is nil, so min temps Sunday night
should be similar to tonight.

Low level southerly winds reach only to Western NY/PA by 12Z
Monday...still west winds over us at that time...which means
little lift to be generated Sunday night. So the probability of
precip should be low. If the precipitation were to move in
faster, low level temperatures would support a mix with sleet
and freezing rain. But that scenario looks unlikely at this
time.

Our forecast shows slight chance pops in Western MA/CT by 12Z
Monday, and that may be overplaying the likelihood.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Light icing risk Mon/early Tue across interior w/focus high terrain

* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds possible on the coast

* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday

* Dry/blustery but turning colder Wed and especially by Thu/Fri

Details...

Monday and Monday night...

Main concern Mon into Mon night will be the potential for a
period of light icing across parts of interior southern New
England with the main focus being the Worcester Hills and east
slopes of the Berkshires.

A cold air damming pattern appears to be setting up with
Canadian high pressure in place. Meanwhile...enough warm
advection aloft should result in light precipitation breaking
out across the region. Timing uncertain...but potential
increases Monday afternoon and night although can not rule out
some light precipitation arriving Monday morning. The bulk of
the precipitation that falls into Monday night should be light
as stronger synoptic scale forcing/deeper moisture will remain
to our west. Mainly just light rain showers expected on the
coastal plain. The focus will be across interior southern New
England with the main area of concern the high terrain of the
Worcester Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires. Some very
minor light snow/sleet accums are possible at the onset, but
main issue will be light freezing rain/light icing potential.

How much of the interior is impacted by a period of icing remains
uncertain. Most of the guidance indicates the surface high
fairly far north in Canada and it is not really nosing down into
southern New England. Plus the fact that were dealing with an
unseasonably mild airmass currently in place for January that
needs to depart. Therefore...the main concern will be the high
terrain of the northern Worcester Hills and east slopes of the
Berkshires. Temps likely to be a few degrees colder in this
region and most of the high resolution guidance including the
SREF probabilities is targeting this region for the potential of
light icing. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
especially later Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday...

The main surface low will be lifting across the Great Lakes.
This will induce a southerly LLJ 3+ standard deviations above
normal with Pwats 2+ above normal. While some lingering freezing
rain can not be ruled out across the high terrain of MA early
Tue am, any left over ice should change to rain. The main story
will then be a period of heavy rain given the anomalous
ingredients in place. As previous forecaster mentioned...there
may even be an isolated t-storm or two as Showalter Indices drop
below zero.

In addition...potent southerly low level jet may result in a
period of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts along the coastal plain.  This
is especially true if high temps climb well into the 50s and
any convective elements are able to tap the stronger winds
aloft.

The fortunate thing is this system looks fairly progressive...so
most of the heavy rain will be ending Tuesday evening. Rainfall
amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.50 inches seem
reasonable...which may lead to typical nuisance/poor drainage
street given much of this probably falls in a 6 hour period.
However, The Northeast River Forecast Center indicates that
while a few rivers may rise to action stage they are not
expecting any significant problems.

Wednesday through Friday...

Transient trough sets up over the northeast allowing
colder weather to work back into the region...but it should be
dry as high pressure builds in from the west.  High temps Wed
will be well up into the 30s to the lower 40s on the coastal plain
although a bit windy. Colder Thu and Fri with highs mainly in
the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Saturday...

The high pressure system moves off the coast which should allow
a return flow of milder air into the region. Above normal temps
look to return and right now it looks like any forcing/deeper
moisture will be to the west of our region. Therefore...will
maintain a dry forecast for the first part of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Through 12Z...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS develop in patchy fog in
normally prone areas of the CT valley, possible across portions
of interior E Mass for a few hours prior to sunrise.

Today...High confidence.
VFR. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions should improve by around
14Z. W-NW winds around 10 kt or less as pressure gradient
relaxes.

Tonight...Moderate confidence in general trends, lower in timing
arrival of precip.
Mainly VFR through midnight, then MVFR-IFR conditions move into
the CT valley in fog and mixed snow/sleet/freezing rain.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance -SHRA, chance -FZRA
across the interior high terrain.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
-SHRA. Pockets of -FZRA possible across the interior with the
 focus in the high terrain of MA.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
to 40 kt. RA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to
35 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...
Winds have diminished below small craft levels across the near
shore waters so the Small Craft Advisory ended at 10 PM. Still
noting some gusts up to 20-25 kt and seas up to 5-6 ft over the
open waters which will subside through the remainder of the
night.

Today and Tonight...
High pressure over the waters should provide fair weather with
light winds and seas below 5 feet. Clouds will increase
overnight, but support for any precipitation will remain well to
our west during the night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35
kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from NERFC late tonight so updated the Flood
Statement to provide the latest information. Not too much change
from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...WTB/Frank/EVT
MARINE...WTB/Frank/EVT
HYDROLOGY...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210633
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
133 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring the potential for heavy
rain and a period of strong winds on the coast Tuesday, but this
will be preceded by a risk of a light wintry mix/ice across the
interior Monday into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and
colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above
normal temperatures likely return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

105 AM Update...

Appears the southern edge of the high clouds has been slowly
drifting northward across the region, with clear or mostly clear
skies being reported across S CT into the NYC area at 06Z as
seen on GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB composite and fog
product imagery. An area of clear or few cirrus clouds will
cross the region out of central and S NY/E PA/N NJ for the next
few hours. However, need to watch area of low clouds moving
steadily eastward from W PA/WV/W NY, which should push into the
CT valley during the morning hours to midday.

Noting patchy fog has developed across the normally foggy
locations of KEEN and KORE at 06Z. May see more patchy fog
develop across the normally prone areas of the CT valley and
possibly into N central and NE Mass through the remainder of
the night.

Where skies have cleared, temps have fallen to the 20s to lower
30s, while holding in the mid-upper 30s along coastal areas.

Light/variable (mainly W-NW) to calm winds will continue through
daybreak. Have updated previous forecast to bring conditions
current.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

High pressure in place today with fair skies and light wind.
Moisture fields do show some increasing mid and high level
moisture, so expect some increasing clouds mostly in the
afternoon/evening. With mixing to 950 mb, expect max temps in
the mid to upper 40s, a few spots around 50.

The clouds increase tonight. A cold front in Northern New
England dips south and may slip through Southern New England.
But with the upper flow west-east we do not expect a lot of push
to it, and potential that it stalls either over or near us. The
net change in the airmass is nil, so min temps Sunday night
should be similar to tonight.

Low level southerly winds reach only to Western NY/PA by 12Z
Monday...still west winds over us at that time...which means
little lift to be generated Sunday night. So the probability of
precip should be low. If the precipitation were to move in
faster, low level temperatures would support a mix with sleet
and freezing rain. But that scenario looks unlikely at this
time.

Our forecast shows slight chance pops in Western MA/CT by 12Z
Monday, and that may be overplaying the likelihood.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Light icing risk Mon/early Tue across interior w/focus high terrain

* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds possible on the coast

* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday

* Dry/blustery but turning colder Wed and especially by Thu/Fri

Details...

Monday and Monday night...

Main concern Mon into Mon night will be the potential for a
period of light icing across parts of interior southern New
England with the main focus being the Worcester Hills and east
slopes of the Berkshires.

A cold air damming pattern appears to be setting up with
Canadian high pressure in place. Meanwhile...enough warm
advection aloft should result in light precipitation breaking
out across the region. Timing uncertain...but potential
increases Monday afternoon and night although can not rule out
some light precipitation arriving Monday morning. The bulk of
the precipitation that falls into Monday night should be light
as stronger synoptic scale forcing/deeper moisture will remain
to our west. Mainly just light rain showers expected on the
coastal plain. The focus will be across interior southern New
England with the main area of concern the high terrain of the
Worcester Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires. Some very
minor light snow/sleet accums are possible at the onset, but
main issue will be light freezing rain/light icing potential.

How much of the interior is impacted by a period of icing remains
uncertain. Most of the guidance indicates the surface high
fairly far north in Canada and it is not really nosing down into
southern New England. Plus the fact that were dealing with an
unseasonably mild airmass currently in place for January that
needs to depart. Therefore...the main concern will be the high
terrain of the northern Worcester Hills and east slopes of the
Berkshires. Temps likely to be a few degrees colder in this
region and most of the high resolution guidance including the
SREF probabilities is targeting this region for the potential of
light icing. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
especially later Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday...

The main surface low will be lifting across the Great Lakes.
This will induce a southerly LLJ 3+ standard deviations above
normal with Pwats 2+ above normal. While some lingering freezing
rain can not be ruled out across the high terrain of MA early
Tue am, any left over ice should change to rain. The main story
will then be a period of heavy rain given the anomalous
ingredients in place. As previous forecaster mentioned...there
may even be an isolated t-storm or two as Showalter Indices drop
below zero.

In addition...potent southerly low level jet may result in a
period of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts along the coastal plain.  This
is especially true if high temps climb well into the 50s and
any convective elements are able to tap the stronger winds
aloft.

The fortunate thing is this system looks fairly progressive...so
most of the heavy rain will be ending Tuesday evening. Rainfall
amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.50 inches seem
reasonable...which may lead to typical nuisance/poor drainage
street given much of this probably falls in a 6 hour period.
However, The Northeast River Forecast Center indicates that
while a few rivers may rise to action stage they are not
expecting any significant problems.

Wednesday through Friday...

Transient trough sets up over the northeast allowing
colder weather to work back into the region...but it should be
dry as high pressure builds in from the west.  High temps Wed
will be well up into the 30s to the lower 40s on the coastal plain
although a bit windy. Colder Thu and Fri with highs mainly in
the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Saturday...

The high pressure system moves off the coast which should allow
a return flow of milder air into the region. Above normal temps
look to return and right now it looks like any forcing/deeper
moisture will be to the west of our region. Therefore...will
maintain a dry forecast for the first part of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Through 12Z...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS develop in patchy fog in
normally prone areas of the CT valley, possible across portions
of interior E Mass for a few hours prior to sunrise.

Today...High confidence.
VFR. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions should improve by around
14Z. W-NW winds around 10 kt or less as pressure gradient
relaxes.

Tonight...Moderate confidence in general trends, lower in timing
arrival of precip.
Mainly VFR through midnight, then MVFR-IFR conditions move into
the CT valley in fog and mixed snow/sleet/freezing rain.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance -SHRA, chance -FZRA
across the interior high terrain.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
-SHRA. Pockets of -FZRA possible across the interior with the
 focus in the high terrain of MA.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
to 40 kt. RA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to
35 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...
Winds have diminished below small craft levels across the near
shore waters so the Small Craft Advisory ended at 10 PM. Still
noting some gusts up to 20-25 kt and seas up to 5-6 ft over the
open waters which will subside through the remainder of the
night.

Today and Tonight...
High pressure over the waters should provide fair weather with
light winds and seas below 5 feet. Clouds will increase
overnight, but support for any precipitation will remain well to
our west during the night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35
kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from NERFC late tonight so updated the Flood
Statement to provide the latest information. Not too much change
from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...WTB/Frank/EVT
MARINE...WTB/Frank/EVT
HYDROLOGY...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210532
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1232 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south from Canada tonight and will
stall over southern New England Sunday and Sunday night. The
front will lift north on Monday and Monday night as a warm
front. Low pressure will track northeast through the ST Lawrence
Valley on Tuesday and will drive a cold front through the region
in the afternoon. A trough of low pressure will linger over the
region Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure will gradually
build in from the west Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1232 am Update: Have updated the forecast to account for low
cloud cover over northern areas, stretching east to the Midcoast
region. Mainly high, thin clouds over southern sections.

Have added some fog to the Keene area for the next few hours.

945 pm Update: Ingested latest data for ESTF with only changes
being made in the cloud grids. Satellite imagery shows band of
clouds across mountains east into central Maine so made
appropriate adjustments to reflect more cloud cover across those
areas and further south as the area drifts south later tonight.

7 pm Update: Ingested latest obs data for ESTF. No changes
needed at this time.

Previous Discussion:
Weak cold front will gradually sag south from Canada tonight.
This boundary already re-enforcing cloud cover in northern zones
and may produce a few snow showers later this evening in the
usual upslope areas in the mountains. Expect any accumulations
to be light and spotty. Remainder of the region will see
variable high and mid level clouds. Lows overnight will
generally range through the 20s from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cold front will gradually stall over southern New England on
Sunday. Will see varying amounts of cloud cover through the day
but temperatures will still top out above normal as cooler air
remains north of the region. Highs will range through the 30s
north and lower to mid 40s south.

Clouds will thicken Sunday night as the front begins to lift
north as a warm front. Aside from a few snow showers in the
mountains most of the forecast area will see a dry night. Lows
will range through the teens in the north and 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Focus in the extended continues to be on Mon night/Tue system.
Not much significant change in available guidance today...with a
wave moving into CA today amplifying into the MS River Valley by
Mon. High pressure build build out ahead of it to the N...while
WAA surface and aloft drives a warm front towards New England.
The devil is in the details of where that warm front hangs up at
the surface...because it appears that the mid level front should
make appreciable progress thru the forecast area.

Given the high pressure positioning...I have stayed below
guidance temps and near the previous forecast. GEFS and ECMWF
EPS guidance continues to show mean surface primary low headed
for the the Ern Great Lakes...with a secondary redeveloping
across New England. My feeling is that this mean secondary is
too far inland...and will likely end up developing closer to the
coast. That being said...it will likely be farther N than is
necessary to keep really cold air in place. But it will delay
the warm up a bit.

An examination of all ensemble guidance clustered together shows
that with the 20.00z suite stronger high pressure located to our
NE...or colder scenarios...were favored when there were higher
heights ahead of the developing wave across the Intermountain
West. This is possibly a result of maximum primary intensity
occurring earlier...and strongest conveyor belts maturing and
weakening before arriving across the Northeast. The 20.12z GFS
and ECMWF so far have initialized too low with heights ahead of
the wave...and we will have to see if those trends continue. The
important window will really be tonight into early Sun to see
how features are developing.

The resulting forecast for our area will be a light snow or mix
at onset...turning into a break in precip as the dry slot moves
into the area. There could be a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle...but I did not want to complicate the forecast more
than it already is. Steadier precip moves in Tue...and it will
likely bring a mixed bag of some snow in the mtns...with
sleet...freezing rain...and eventually rain for more Srn and
central locations. Snow amounts will be light...especially
outside the mtns...with freezing rain amounts looking like less
than a quarter inch as well.

Beyond this system...after CAA midweek...a gradual moderating
trend to milder than normal will develop.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight and Sunday with areas of MVFR ceilings
in the mountains. Areas of MVFR ceilings develop Sunday night as
onshore flow sets up.

Long Term...VFR begins the period. Heading into the
afternoon...some weak forcing may allow for some light precip
to develop. It appears a dry slot moves in Mon night...but
gradually warming and moistening air mass will lead to
widespread IFR conditions developing. Downsloping winds may keep
HIE MVFR or VFR into Tue. Steadier precip moves in Tue...which
may begin as a PL/FZRA mix at all terminals before changing to
RA...especially near the coast and across Srn NH. IFR or lower
conditions linger into Tue evening before Wly flow scatters out
clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Continuing SCA`s through tonight for the outer
waters.

Long Term...Sly winds will begin to increase Mon...and
especially into Tue as low pressure moves thru New England. A
period of gale force winds gusts is possible outside the bays as
the core of the low level jet moves overhead Tue. SCA conditions
will likely linger thru the end of the week...as CAA follows the
system and winds and seas slowly diminish.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210354
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1054 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring the potential for heavy
rain and a period of strong winds on the coast Tuesday, but this
will be preceded by a risk of a light wintry mix/ice across the
interior Monday into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and
colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above
normal temperatures likely return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

1020 PM Update...

Streams of high clouds continue to push across the region as
seen on latest GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB composite and
Fog imagery has show. A nearly zonal wind flow remains in place
tonight as low pres moves across the Maritimes and W-E elongated
high pressure remains across the SE states.

Even with the high clouds in place, temps have been falling
steadily across some of the colder inland valley spots with
light/variable or calm winds, while readings were milder toward
the coastal plain. Temps ranged from the upper 20s to mid 30s
across the CT valley and NE CT/N central Mass, up to around 40
from central and S RI to Cape Cod and the islands at 03Z.

Expect light/variable (mainly W-NW) winds to continue through
the remainder of the night. Not many changes to the previous
forecast, though updated to bring conditions current. Temps
should bottom out in the 20-25 degree range across the normally
colder valley locations up to 30-35 along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure in place Sunday with fair skies and light wind.
Moisture fields do show some increasing mid and high level moisture,
so expect some increasing clouds mostly in the afternoon/evening.
With mixing to 950 mb, expect max temps in the mid to upper 40s, a
few spots around 50.

The clouds increase Sunday night. A cold front in Northern New
England dips south and may slip through Southern New England. But
with the upper flow west-east we do not expect a lot of push to it,
and potential that it stalls either over or near us. The net change
in the airmass is nil, so min temps Sunday night should be similar
to tonight.

Low level southerly winds reach only to Western NY/PA by 12Z
Monday...still west winds over us at that time...which means little
lift to be generated Sunday night. So the probability of precip
should be low. If the precipitation were to move in faster,
low level temperatures would support a mix with sleet and
freezing rain. But that scenario looks unlikely at this time.

Our forecast shows slight chance pops in Western MA/CT by 12Z
Monday, and that may be overplaying the likelihood.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Light icing risk Mon/early Tue across interior w/focus high terrain

* Heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds possible on the coast

* Significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday

* Dry/blustery but turning colder Wed and especially by Thu/Fri

Details...

Monday and Monday night...

Main concern Mon into Mon night will be the potential for a period of
light icing across parts of interior southern New England with
the main focus being the Worcester Hills and east slopes of the
Berkshires.

A cold air damming pattern appears to be setting up with Canadian high
pressure in place. Meanwhile...enough warm advection aloft
should result in light precipitation breaking out across the
region. Timing uncertain...but potential increases Monday
afternoon and night although can not rule out some light
precipitation arriving Monday morning. The bulk of the
precipitation that falls into Monday night should be light as
stronger synoptic scale forcing/deeper moisture will remain to
our west. Mainly just light rain showers expected on the coastal
plain. The focus will be across interior southern New England
with the main area of concern the high terrain of the Worcester
Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires. Some very minor light
snow/sleet accums are possible at the onset, but main issue will
be light freezing rain/light icing potential.

How much of the interior is impacted by a period of icing remains
uncertain. Most of the guidance indicates the surface high
fairly far north in Canada and it is not really nosing down into
southern New England. Plus the fact that were dealing with an
unseasonably mild airmass currently in place for January that
needs to depart. Therefore...the main concern will be the high
terrain of the northern Worcester Hills and east slopes of the
Berkshires. Temps likely to be a few degrees colder in this
region and most of the high resolution guidance including the
SREF probabilities is targeting this region for the potential of
light icing. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
especially later Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday...

The main surface low will be lifting across the Great Lakes.  This
will induce a southerly LLJ 3+ standard deviations above normal
with Pwats 2+ above normal. While some lingering freezing rain
can not be ruled out across the high terrain of MA early Tue
am, any left over ice should change to rain. The main story will
then be a period of heavy rain given the anomalous ingredients
in place. As previous forecaster mentioned...there may even be
an isolated t-storm or two as Showalter Indices drop below zero.

In addition...potent southerly low level jet may result in a
period of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts along the coastal plain.  This
is especially true if high temps climb well into the 50s and
any convective elements are able to tap the stronger winds
aloft.

The fortunate thing is this system looks fairly progressive...so
most of the heavy rain will be ending Tuesday evening. Rainfall
amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.50 inches seem
reasonable...which may lead to typical nuisance/poor drainage
street given much of this probably falls in a 6 hour period.
However, The Northeast River Forecast Center indicates that
while a few rivers may rise to action stage they are not
expecting any significant problems.

Wednesday through Friday...

Transient trough sets up over the northeast allowing
colder weather to work back into the region...but it should be
dry as high pressure builds in from the west.  High temps Wed
will be well up into the 30s to the lower 40s on the coastal plain
although a bit windy. Colder Thu and Fri with highs mainly in
the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Saturday...

The high pressure system moves off the coast which should allow a
return flow of milder air into the region. Above normal temps
look to return and right now it looks like any forcing/deeper
moisture will be to the west of our region. Therefore...will
maintain a dry forecast for the first part of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...

Overnight...High confidence. VFR with just a low risk of
marginal MVFR cigs near daybreak across far western MA.

Sunday...High confidence. VFR. W-NW winds around 10 kt or less
as pressure gradient relaxes.

Sunday night... Moderate confidence.

VFR. Increasing sky cover late at night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance -SHRA, chance -FZRA
across the interior high terrain.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
-SHRA. Pockets of -FZRA possible across the interior with the
 focus in the high terrain of MA.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
to 40 kt. RA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to
35 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.

Overnight...

Winds have diminished below small craft levels across the near
shore waters so the Small Craft Advisory ended at 10 PM. Still
noting some gusts up to 20-25 kt and seas up to 5-6 ft over the
open waters which will subside through the remainder of the
night.

Sunday and Sunday night...

High pressure over the waters should provide fair weather with light
winds and seas below 5 feet. Clouds will increase overnight, but
support for any precipitation will remain well to our west during
the night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35
kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from NERFC late tonight so updated the Flood
Statement to provide the latest information. Not too much change
from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...WTB/Frank/EVT
MARINE...WTB/Frank/EVT
HYDROLOGY...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210247
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
947 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south from Canada tonight and will
stall over southern New England Sunday and Sunday night. The
front will lift north on Monday and Monday night as a warm
front. Low pressure will track northeast through the ST Lawrence
Valley on Tuesday and will drive a cold front through the region
in the afternoon. A trough of low pressure will linger over the
region Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure will gradually
build in from the west Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
945 pm Update: Ingested latest data for ESTF with only changes
being made in the cloud grids. Satellite imagery shows band of
clouds across mountains east into central Maine so made
appropriate adjustments to reflect more cloud cover across those
areas and further south as the area drifts south later tonight.

7 pm Update: Ingested latest obs data for ESTF. No changes
needed at this time.

Previous Discussion:
Weak cold front will gradually sag south from Canada tonight.
This boundary already re-enforcing cloud cover in northern zones
and may produce a few snow showers later this evening in the
usual upslope areas in the mountains. Expect any accumulations
to be light and spotty. Remainder of the region will see
variable high and mid level clouds. Lows overnight will
generally range through the 20s from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will gradually stall over southern New England on
Sunday. Will see varying amounts of cloud cover through the day
but temperatures will still top out above normal as cooler air
remains north of the region. Highs will range through the 30s
north and lower to mid 40s south.

Clouds will thicken Sunday night as the front begins to lift
north as a warm front. Aside from a few snow showers in the
mountains most of the forecast area will see a dry night. Lows
will range through the teens in the north and 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Focus in the extended continues to be on Mon night/Tue system.
Not much significant change in available guidance today...with a
wave moving into CA today amplifying into the MS River Valley by
Mon. High pressure build build out ahead of it to the N...while
WAA surface and aloft drives a warm front towards New England.
The devil is in the details of where that warm front hangs up at
the surface...because it appears that the mid level front should
make appreciable progress thru the forecast area.

Given the high pressure positioning...I have stayed below
guidance temps and near the previous forecast. GEFS and ECMWF
EPS guidance continues to show mean surface primary low headed
for the the Ern Great Lakes...with a secondary redeveloping
across New England. My feeling is that this mean secondary is
too far inland...and will likely end up developing closer to the
coast. That being said...it will likely be farther N than is
necessary to keep really cold air in place. But it will delay
the warm up a bit.

An examination of all ensemble guidance clustered together shows
that with the 20.00z suite stronger high pressure located to our
NE...or colder scenarios...were favored when there were higher
heights ahead of the developing wave across the Intermountain
West. This is possibly a result of maximum primary intensity
occurring earlier...and strongest conveyor belts maturing and
weakening before arriving across the Northeast. The 20.12z GFS
and ECMWF so far have initialized too low with heights ahead of
the wave...and we will have to see if those trends continue. The
important window will really be tonight into early Sun to see
how features are developing.

The resulting forecast for our area will be a light snow or mix
at onset...turning into a break in precip as the dry slot moves
into the area. There could be a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle...but I did not want to complicate the forecast more
than it already is. Steadier precip moves in Tue...and it will
likely bring a mixed bag of some snow in the mtns...with
sleet...freezing rain...and eventually rain for more Srn and
central locations. Snow amounts will be light...especially
outside the mtns...with freezing rain amounts looking like less
than a quarter inch as well.

Beyond this system...after CAA midweek...a gradual moderating
trend to milder than normal will develop.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight and Sunday with areas of MVFR ceilings
in the mountains. Areas of MVFR ceilings develop Sunday night as
onshore flow sets up.

Long Term...VFR begins the period. Heading into the
afternoon...some weak forcing may allow for some light precip
to develop. It appears a dry slot moves in Mon night...but
gradually warming and moistening air mass will lead to
widespread IFR conditions developing. Downsloping winds may keep
HIE MVFR or VFR into Tue. Steadier precip moves in Tue...which
may begin as a PL/FZRA mix at all terminals before changing to
RA...especially near the coast and across Srn NH. IFR or lower
conditions linger into Tue evening before Wly flow scatters out
clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Continuing SCA`s through tonight for the outer
waters.

Long Term...Sly winds will begin to increase Mon...and
especially into Tue as low pressure moves thru New England. A
period of gale force winds gusts is possible outside the bays as
the core of the low level jet moves overhead Tue. SCA conditions
will likely linger thru the end of the week...as CAA follows the
system and winds and seas slowly diminish.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
Marine




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