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000
FXUS61 KGYX 261127
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
727 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks north through western Maine today with
another round of showers possible this afternoon. This system
will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing clearing
Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low pressure
will move into the region late Fri and Friday night. Some
instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon and
evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives on
Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
Last batch of steady rain moving through southwest Maine and
coastal New Hampshire now. Will leave the Flood Watch up for
western Maine despite updated forecasts now calling for river
crests to stay below flood stage. Since more rain is moving in,
there is a chance we see another spike on the rivers which are
already close to flood. Have updated the forecast to adjust
precipitation chances this morning, again trying to show this
last batch of rain moving in with convective showers likely this
afternoon.

530AM UPDATE...
Another batch of steadier rain is moving in from Cape Cod,
likely affecting far eastern New Hampshire and most of western
Maine for the next few hours. Have updated the forecast to try
to show this in the hourly precipitation chances a bit better.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Area of steady rain has moved east into central and eastern
Maine, while behind it only a few isolated showers exist. Expect
the steady rain to continue to slowly push east this morning,
while fog develops in the wake of it. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise, hanging on longest across interior western Maine.

Surface low pressure lifts north through the area today while
upper level low pressure tracks east out of the Great Lakes and
into northern New England. As the upper low arrives, expect
areas of showers to develop. With cold air moving in aloft and
warm/moist air at ground level, cannot rule out a thunderstorm
this afternoon. Given cold temperatures aloft, small hail is
possible with any heftier showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Upper low moves east tonight with some clearing expected.
Temperatures fall back into the low 40s with some upper 30s
possible, buoyed in part by remnant low level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

*Continued shower activity through the weekend will contribute
 to rises on area rivers and streams
*Significant warm up expected early next week

Low pressure associated with a northern stream short wave will
be ejecting northeast late Thursday night into the wee hours
Friday morning. Subsidence behind this system will allow for
some clearing skies early Friday before additional moisture
arrives ahead of the next weather maker. This system will be
ushered in on a southern stream wave along the mid Atlantic
coast line, similar to out current storm system.

Widespread showers are forecast for our entire area over the
weekend. Coastal low pressure will likely stay just offshore
until crossing the Gulf of Maine and into Maine Saturday
morning. Sprawling high pressure over the Plains and western
Great Lakes region will interfere with farther movement
inland. An additional mesolow deepens over the eastern Great
Lakes and will follow suit, bringing with it a trailing cold
front. QPF amounts will be in the 1-2" range for the Friday to
Sunday time frame, delivering another good soaking rain and
adding to already high running creeks and streams. We may see
some snow mix in over the mountains Sunday night as cooler air
arrives behind the multiple FROPAs, but accumulations will be
light.

During this time temperatures will be below normal for highs
due to clouds and precipitation. Overnight lows will be chilly,
especially Monday morning, which will see some freezing
temperatures over western NH and northern ME. Ironically, our
frost/freeze program for crops does not start until May 1, so
take care to cover any sensitive plants.

Monday through mid week we will see some very warm readings with
highs in the 70s areawide with perhaps an 80 degree location or
two.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Steadier rain moves into central and eastern Maine
this morning, while some fog develops behind it. This fog should
lift a few hours after sunrise with VFR conditions developing
from southwest to northeast. But just as the sun begins to come
out, clouds will fill back in and showers form this afternoon.
Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm either.

Long Term...VFR early Friday with conditions lowering to
MVFR/IFR late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. VFR
conditions return for all terminals except perhaps KHIE Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will develop in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds gradually diminishing this morning, shifting
to the west by afternoon. Seas remain high through the day and
possibly into Friday.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain AOA 5 feet
Friday into Saturday so SCAs for seas will likely be needed.
On Sunday winds become westerly and should remain generally
below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Steadier rain has ended and rises on area rivers have been
noted. With the more persistent rain having exited New Hampshire
and most rivers there already cresting below flood stage, have
decided to drop the Flood Watch for northern New Hampshire.
Rivers in northwest Maine are rising or nearing their crest, so
will keep the Flood Watch up for these areas.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ151-
     153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Hanes



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000
FXUS61 KBOX 261114
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
714 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak high pressure ridge will bring a return to mainly dry
weather later this morning through tonight with seasonable
temperatures. Another fast moving low pressure system will bring
a period of widespread showers to the region Friday afternoon
and evening. Milder temperatures return Saturday, but a cold
front will bring a brief shot of cooler air to the region Sunday
into Monday. A significant warming trend will occur Tuesday
into Wednesday with dry weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

710 am update...

Last of the steady rain across eastern MA will be exiting the
region over the next hour or two. Otherwise, a few spot showers
may linger this morning. Areas of fog still impacting the
region with a few localized spots where it was dense.  Rapid
improvement should occur over the next few hours as increased
mixing allows drier air to scour it out. Clouds will be slower
to depart...but should see partial sunshine emerge in most areas
by afternoon.

Skies will become partly to mostly sunny this afternoon for
most areas. It will be a more typical spring day as temperatures
rebound into the middle to upper 60s across much of the region.
As winds shift to SW to W during the day, may see wind gusts up
to around 25 mph mainly during the afternoon, possibly a bit
higher for a time along the immediate S coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Tonight..

Weak high pressure crosses the region, so expect partly cloudy
skies on average. West winds will be briefly gusty this evening
mainly along the immediate S coast, but will become light by
around midnight.

Fast flow aloft continues as mid level long wave trough starts
to dig across the western Great Lakes. Noting another short wave
in this fast flow, with associated surface low pressure
shifting NE out of the Carolinas after midnight.

Expect dry conditions through the night, though mid and high
clouds will increase after midnight across western areas. Low
temps will range through the lower-mid 40s, typical for late
April.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* A period of widespread showers Fri afternoon/eve with localized
  brief heavy rainfall possible

* Mainly dry and milder during the day Sat with just few showers
  possible across the interior

* Scattered showers possible Sat night into Sun but not a washout

* Mainly dry and cool Sun night into Mon

* Dry with a significant warming trend Tue/Wed

Details...

Friday and Friday night...

While much of Friday morning may end up dry...shortwave energy
lifting northeastward will result in a period of widespread
showers focused Friday afternoon/evening. Despite the shortwave
energy gradually deamplifying a modest southerly LLJ/PWAT axis
will develop ahead of it. Guidance has trended stronger and
further west with the axis of the LLJ along with some elevated
instability. These ingredients should combined for a period of
widespread showers Friday afternoon/evening. Brief localized
heavy rainfall is possible and perhaps even an isolated t-storm
or two. Greatest risk for that will be across southeast New
England on the nose of the LLJ.

High temperatures may reach the lower to middle 60s for a time
during the late morning/early afternoon...but readings should
drop back into the 50s once the rain arrives and some fog should
develop. The bulk of the rain should come to an end after
midnight...but areas of fog may linger.

Saturday...

An approaching cold front will result in a milder southwest
flow of air into southern New England. Partial sunshine and good
mixing ahead of the front should allow afternoon high
temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to the lower 70s away
from the marine influence of the south coast. Mainly dry weather
expected Saturday...but enough forcing/marginal instability may
allow for a few showers to develop during the afternoon across
the interior.

Saturday night and Sunday...

The guidance has trended slower with the passage of the cold
frontal passage. While confidence is low...the slower movement
of the front may allow for a bit better moisture return and
perhaps a period of scattered showers Saturday night into Sun.
The main idea is that while it does not look like a washout...a
period of scattered showers is certainly possible. Highs Sun may
reach well into the 50s to the lower 60s given the slower
movement of the cold front.

Sunday night and Monday...

The latest model suite has slowed the departure of the deep
upper trough across the northeast. Therefore...cool weather is
on tap for Sunday night and Monday. Low temperatures Sun night
probably will bottom out well down into the 30s...so some frost
is possible. Highs on Monday should be mainly in the upper 50s
to around 60. Mainly dry weather expected...although a few spot
showers are possible on Mon given cold pool aloft overhead.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

A significant warmup is still in the cards for the region as
the upper trough quickly departs and is replaced by upper level
ridging. This should allow highs to probably break 70 across
much of the region Tue and perhaps 80+ in some locations by Wed.
Weak pressure gradient will likely allow for localized sea
breezes at times...resulting in cooler temperatures along the
immediate coast. Nonetheless...summerlike warmth is a good bet
by the middle of next week away from localized marine
influences. Dry weather is also anticipated Tue/Wed as upper
level ridge will result in little synoptic forcing for any
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...LIFR conditions dominated very early this morning...but
should see improvement to high end IFR-MVFR by mid morning and
mainly VFR by afternoon. High confidence in the improvement
given dry westerly flow mixing down...but uncertainty revolves
around the specific timing. W-SW winds will gust up to 20-25 kt
along the immediate S coast, Cape Cod and the islands as well as
the higher terrain.

Tonight...VFR conditions. W wind gusts up to around 20 kt. Mid
and high clouds increase after midnight across western areas.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF but lower confidence in
timing. LIFR conditions should improve to high end IFR-MVFR by
mid morning and mainly VFR this afternoon. Specific timing is
uncertain.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF but lower confidence in
timing. IFR conditions should improve to MVFR by mid morning and
then mainly VFR this afternoon.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Friday: VFR in the morning will be replaced by MVFR-IFR
conditions form west to east during the afternoon/early evening
as rain showers move across the region with even the low risk of
an isolated t-storm.  Areas of fog also expected to develop
late.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions. SHRA mainly in the
evening, but areas of fog and low clouds may persist longer.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor and
Cape Cod Bay. Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 25 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers along with areas of fog.
Visibility locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters.

Today...Moderate to high confidence.
S-SW winds gusting to 25-30 kt then will briefly diminish
around midday before shifting to W and gusting up to around 20
kt mainly on the outer waters. Seas will remain at 5 feet or
greater through the day across the open waters as well as the
south bays and sounds. Visibilities at or below 1 nm at times
through mid to late morning in patchy fog and showers, then
improving.

Tonight...High confidence.
W winds gusting to 25 kt early then diminishing. Seas will
slowly subside but remain at or above 5 ft. Good visibility.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
develop by late afternoon with an isolated t-storm or two
possible. Areas of fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Rain showers likely with perhaps isolated thunderstorm. Areas of
fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ020>024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261019
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
619 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak high pressure ridge will bring a return to mainly dry
weather later this morning through tonight with seasonable
temperatures. Another fast moving low pressure system will bring
a period of widespread showers to the region Friday afternoon
and evening. Milder temperatures return Saturday, but a cold
front will bring a brief shot of cooler air to the region Sunday
into Monday. A significant warming trend will occur Tuesday
into Wednesday with dry weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

615 am update...

The bulk of the steady rain across eastern MA/RI should be
exiting the region over the next hour or two as drier mid level
air works in from the west. Otherwise...should see the fog and
low clouds dissipate from west to east this morning as that
drier air works into the region.  Still some localized dense fog
patches out there...but not widespread so will likely cancel the
Dense Fog Advisory shortly.

Skies will become partly to mostly sunny this afternoon for
most areas. It will be a more typical spring day as temperatures
rebound into the middle to upper 60s across much of the region.
As winds shift to SW to W during the day, may see wind gusts up
to around 25 mph mainly during the afternoon, possibly a bit
higher for a time along the immediate S coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...

Tonight..

Weak high pressure crosses the region, so expect partly cloudy
skies on average. West winds will be briefly gusty this evening
mainly along the immediate S coast, but will become light by
around midnight.

Fast flow aloft continues as mid level long wave trough starts
to dig across the western Great Lakes. Noting another short wave
in this fast flow, with associated surface low pressure
shifting NE out of the Carolinas after midnight.

Expect dry conditions through the night, though mid and high
clouds will increase after midnight across western areas. Low
temps will range through the lower-mid 40s, typical for late
April.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* A period of widespread showers Fri afternoon/eve with localized
  brief heavy rainfall possible

* Mainly dry and milder during the day Sat with just few showers
  possible across the interior

* Scattered showers possible Sat night into Sun but not a washout

* Mainly dry and cool Sun night into Mon

* Dry with a significant warming trend Tue/Wed

Details...

Friday and Friday night...

While much of Friday morning may end up dry...shortwave energy
lifting northeastward will result in a period of widespread
showers focused Friday afternoon/evening. Despite the shortwave
energy gradually deamplifying a modest southerly LLJ/PWAT axis
will develop ahead of it. Guidance has trended stronger and
further west with the axis of the LLJ along with some elevated
instability. These ingredients should combined for a period of
widespread showers Friday afternoon/evening. Brief localized
heavy rainfall is possible and perhaps even an isolated t-storm
or two. Greatest risk for that will be across southeast New
England on the nose of the LLJ.

High temperatures may reach the lower to middle 60s for a time
during the late morning/early afternoon...but readings should
drop back into the 50s once the rain arrives and some fog should
develop. The bulk of the rain should come to an end after
midnight...but areas of fog may linger.

Saturday...

An approaching cold front will result in a milder southwest
flow of air into southern New England. Partial sunshine and good
mixing ahead of the front should allow afternoon high
temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to the lower 70s away
from the marine influence of the south coast. Mainly dry weather
expected Saturday...but enough forcing/marginal instability may
allow for a few showers to develop during the afternoon across
the interior.

Saturday night and Sunday...

The guidance has trended slower with the passage of the cold
frontal passage. While confidence is low...the slower movement
of the front may allow for a bit better moisture return and
perhaps a period of scattered showers Saturday night into Sun.
The main idea is that while it does not look like a washout...a
period of scattered showers is certainly possible. Highs Sun may
reach well into the 50s to the lower 60s given the slower
movement of the cold front.

Sunday night and Monday...

The latest model suite has slowed the departure of the deep
upper trough across the northeast. Therefore...cool weather is
on tap for Sunday night and Monday. Low temperatures Sun night
probably will bottom out well down into the 30s...so some frost
is possible. Highs on Monday should be mainly in the upper 50s
to around 60. Mainly dry weather expected...although a few spot
showers are possible on Mon given cold pool aloft overhead.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

A significant warmup is still in the cards for the region as
the upper trough quickly departs and is replaced by upper level
ridging. This should allow highs to probably break 70 across
much of the region Tue and perhaps 80+ in some locations by Wed.
Weak pressure gradient will likely allow for localized sea
breezes at times...resulting in cooler temperatures along the
immediate coast. Nonetheless...summerlike warmth is a good bet
by the middle of next week away from localized marine
influences. Dry weather is also anticipated Tue/Wed as upper
level ridge will result in little synoptic forcing for any
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...LIFR conditions dominated very early this morning...but
should see improvement to high end IFR-MVFR by mid morning and
mainly VFR by afternoon. High confidence in the improvement
given dry westerly flow mixing down...but uncertainty revolves
around the specific timing. W-SW winds will gust up to 20-25 kt
along the immediate S coast, Cape Cod and the islands as well as
the higher terrain.

Tonight...VFR conditions. W wind gusts up to around 20 kt. Mid
and high clouds increase after midnight across western areas.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF but lower confidence in
timing. LIFR conditions should improve to high end IFR-MVFR by
mid morning and mainly VFR this afternoon. Specific timing is
uncertain.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF but lower confidence in
timing. IFR conditions should improve to MVFR by mid morning and
then mainly VFR this afternoon.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Friday: VFR in the morning will be replaced by MVFR-IFR
conditions form west to east during the afternoon/early evening
as rain showers move across the region with even the low risk of
an isolated t-storm.  Areas of fog also expected to develop
late.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions. SHRA mainly in the
evening, but areas of fog and low clouds may persist longer.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor and
Cape Cod Bay. Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 25 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers along with areas of fog.
Visibility locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters.

Today...Moderate to high confidence.
S-SW winds gusting to 25-30 kt then will briefly diminish
around midday before shifting to W and gusting up to around 20
kt mainly on the outer waters. Seas will remain at 5 feet or
greater through the day across the open waters as well as the
south bays and sounds. Visibilities at or below 1 nm at times
through mid to late morning in patchy fog and showers, then
improving.

Tonight...High confidence.
W winds gusting to 25 kt early then diminishing. Seas will
slowly subside but remain at or above 5 ft. Good visibility.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
develop by late afternoon with an isolated t-storm or two
possible. Areas of fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Rain showers likely with perhaps isolated thunderstorm. Areas of
fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ020>024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260930
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
530 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the region through mid morning,
bringing more showers to central and eastern areas. A weak high
pressure ridge will bring a return to mainly dry weather later
this morning through tonight with seasonable temperatures.
Another fast moving low pressure system will bring a period of
widespread showers to the region Friday afternoon and evening.
Milder temperatures return Saturday, but a cold front will bring
a brief shot of cooler air to the region Sunday into Monday. A
significant warming trend will occur Tuesday into Wednesday with
dry weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Visibilities remain around 1/4 mile across portions of S
coastal Mass and RI early this morning. Also noting spotty
visibilities at a mile or less, locally down to one-quarter of
a mile across the remainder of the region as S-SE winds have
diminished. The Dense Fog Advisory continues for S coastal Mass
and RI, but have also issued a Special Weather Statement for
the remainder of the region through around 12Z to watch out for
locally reduced visibilities during the morning commute.

Area of showers, some of which will be briefly heavy, will
cross central and eastern areas this morning as a frontal triple
point with associated low pressure moves NE across the region.
The rain will shift into northern New England by around midday,
though a few showers and clouds may linger across the E slopes
of the Berkshires.

Skies will become partly to mostly sunny this afternoon for
most areas. It will be a more typical spring day as temperatures
rebound to 55-60 across the higher terrain ranging through the
60s across the coastal plain. As winds shift to SW to W during
the day, may see wind gusts up to around 25 mph mainly during
the afternoon, possibly a bit higher for a time along the
immediate S coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...

Tonight..

Weak high pressure crosses the region, so expect partly cloudy
skies on average. West winds will be briefly gusty this evening
mainly along the immediate S coast, but will become light by
around midnight.

Fast flow aloft continues as mid level long wave trough starts
to dig across the western Great Lakes. Noting another short wave
in this fast flow, with associated surface low pressure
shifting NE out of the Carolinas after midnight.

Expect dry conditions through the night, though mid and high
clouds will increase after midnight across western areas. Low
temps will range through the lower-mid 40s, typical for late
April.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* A period of widespread showers Fri afternoon/eve with localized
  brief heavy rainfall possible

* Mainly dry and milder during the day Sat with just few showers
  possible across the interior

* Scattered showers possible Sat night into Sun but not a washout

* Mainly dry and cool Sun night into Mon

* Dry with a significant warming trend Tue/Wed

Details...

Friday and Friday night...

While much of Friday morning may end up dry...shortwave energy
lifting northeastward will result in a period of widespread
showers focused Friday afternoon/evening. Despite the shortwave
energy gradually deamplifying a modest southerly LLJ/PWAT axis
will develop ahead of it. Guidance has trended stronger and
further west with the axis of the LLJ along with some elevated
instability. These ingredients should combined for a period of
widespread showers Friday afternoon/evening. Brief localized
heavy rainfall is possible and perhaps even an isolated t-storm
or two. Greatest risk for that will be across southeast New
England on the nose of the LLJ.

High temperatures may reach the lower to middle 60s for a time
during the late morning/early afternoon...but readings should
drop back into the 50s once the rain arrives and some fog should
develop. The bulk of the rain should come to an end after
midnight...but areas of fog may linger.

Saturday...

An approaching cold front will result in a milder southwest
flow of air into southern New England. Partial sunshine and good
mixing ahead of the front should allow afternoon high
temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to the lower 70s away
from the marine influence of the south coast. Mainly dry weather
expected Saturday...but enough forcing/marginal instability may
allow for a few showers to develop during the afternoon across
the interior.

Saturday night and Sunday...

The guidance has trended slower with the passage of the cold
frontal passage. While confidence is low...the slower movement
of the front may allow for a bit better moisture return and
perhaps a period of scattered showers Saturday night into Sun.
The main idea is that while it does not look like a washout...a
period of scattered showers is certainly possible. Highs Sun may
reach well into the 50s to the lower 60s given the slower
movement of the cold front.

Sunday night and Monday...

The latest model suite has slowed the departure of the deep
upper trough across the northeast. Therefore...cool weather is
on tap for Sunday night and Monday. Low temperatures Sun night
probably will bottom out well down into the 30s...so some frost
is possible. Highs on Monday should be mainly in the upper 50s
to around 60. Mainly dry weather expected...although a few spot
showers are possible on Mon given cold pool aloft overhead.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

A significant warmup is still in the cards for the region as
the upper trough quickly departs and is replaced by upper level
ridging. This should allow highs to probably break 70 across
much of the region Tue and perhaps 80+ in some locations by Wed.
Weak pressure gradient will likely allow for localized sea
breezes at times...resulting in cooler temperatures along the
immediate coast. Nonetheless...summerlike warmth is a good bet
by the middle of next week away from localized marine
influences. Dry weather is also anticipated Tue/Wed as upper
level ridge will result in little synoptic forcing for any
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...Moderate to High confidence.

Through 12Z...IFR-LIFR conditions. Leftover showers with
locally heavy rain through daybreak. Low CIGS and areas of fog
will linger across the terminals.

Today...IFR with local LIFR conditions early, improving to VFR
from SW-NE by mid to late morning. Some MVFR CIGS may linger
across the E slopes of the Berkshires through part of the
afternoon. W-SW winds will gust up to 20-25 kt along the
immediate S coast, Cape Cod and the islands as well as the
higher terrain.

Tonight...VFR conditions. W wind gusts up to around 20 kt. Mid
and high clouds increase after midnight across western areas.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR-LIFR conditions
in rain and lower ceilings through most of the morning push.
Expect conditions to improve to VFR by around 16Z- 18Z. W winds
gusting to around 20 kt during the afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR-LIFR conditions
in rain and lower ceilings through around 12Z, then conditions
improve to VFR. W winds may briefly gust up to 20 kt during the
afternoon.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Friday: VFR in the morning will be replaced by MVFR-IFR
conditions form west to east during the afternoon/early evening
as rain showers move across the region with even the low risk of
an isolated t-storm.  Areas of fog also expected to develop
late.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions. SHRA mainly in the
evening, but areas of fog and low clouds may persist longer.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor and
Cape Cod Bay. Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 25 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers along with areas of fog.
Visibility locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters.

Today...Moderate to high confidence.
S-SW winds gusting to 25-30 kt then will briefly diminish
around midday before shifting to W and gusting up to around 20
kt mainly on the outer waters. Seas will remain at 5 feet or
greater through the day across the open waters as well as the
south bays and sounds. Visibilities at or below 1 nm at times
through mid to late morning in patchy fog and showers, then
improving.

Tonight...High confidence.
W winds gusting to 25 kt early then diminishing. Seas will
slowly subside but remain at or above 5 ft. Good visibility.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
develop by late afternoon with an isolated t-storm or two
possible. Areas of fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Rain showers likely with perhaps isolated thunderstorm. Areas of
fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ020>024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260920
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
520 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks north through western Maine today with
another round of showers possible this afternoon. This system
will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing clearing
Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low pressure
will move into the region late Fri and Friday night. Some
instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon and
evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives on
Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
530AM UPDATE...
Another batch of steadier rain is moving in from Cape Cod,
likely affecting far eastern New Hampshire and most of western
Maine for the next few hours. Have updated the forecast to try
to show this in the hourly precipitation chances a bit better.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Area of steady rain has moved east into central and eastern
Maine, while behind it only a few isolated showers exist. Expect
the steady rain to continue to slowly push east this morning,
while fog develops in the wake of it. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise, hanging on longest across interior western Maine.

Surface low pressure lifts north through the area today while
upper level low pressure tracks east out of the Great Lakes and
into northern New England. As the upper low arrives, expect
areas of showers to develop. With cold air moving in aloft and
warm/moist air at ground level, cannot rule out a thunderstorm
this afternoon. Given cold temperatures aloft, small hail is
possible with any heftier showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Upper low moves east tonight with some clearing expected.
Temperatures fall back into the low 40s with some upper 30s
possible, buoyed in part by remnant low level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

*Continued shower activity through the weekend will contribute
 to rises on area rivers and streams
*Significant warm up expected early next week

Low pressure associated with a northern stream short wave will
be ejecting northeast late Thursday night into the wee hours
Friday morning. Subsidence behind this system will allow for
some clearing skies early Friday before additional moisture
arrives ahead of the next weather maker. This system will be
ushered in on a southern stream wave along the mid Atlantic
coast line, similar to out current storm system.

Widespread showers are forecast for our entire area over the
weekend. Coastal low pressure will likely stay just offshore
until crossing the Gulf of Maine and into Maine Saturday
morning. Sprawling high pressure over the Plains and western
Great Lakes region will interfere with farther movement
inland. An additional mesolow deepens over the eastern Great
Lakes and will follow suit, bringing with it a trailing cold
front. QPF amounts will be in the 1-2" range for the Friday to
Sunday time frame, delivering another good soaking rain and
adding to already high running creeks and streams. We may see
some snow mix in over the mountains Sunday night as cooler air
arrives behind the multiple FROPAs, but accumulations will be
light.

During this time temperatures will be below normal for highs
due to clouds and precipitation. Overnight lows will be chilly,
especially Monday morning, which will see some freezing
temperatures over western NH and northern ME. Ironically, our
frost/freeze program for crops does not start until May 1, so
take care to cover any sensitive plants.

Monday through mid week we will see some very warm readings with
highs in the 70s areawide with perhaps an 80 degree location or
two.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Steadier rain moves into central and eastern Maine
this morning, while some fog develops behind it. This fog should
lift a few hours after sunrise with VFR conditions developing
from southwest to northeast. But just as the sun begins to come
out, clouds will fill back in and showers form this afternoon.
Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm either.

Long Term...VFR early Friday with conditions lowering to
MVFR/IFR late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. VFR
conditions return for all terminals except perhaps KHIE Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will develop in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds gradually diminishing this morning, shifting
to the west by afternoon. Seas remain high through the day and
possibly into Friday.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain AOA 5 feet
Friday into Saturday so SCAs for seas will likely be needed.
On Sunday winds become westerly and should remain generally
below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Steadier rain has ended and rises on area rivers have been
noted. With the more persistent rain having exited New Hampshire
and most rivers there already cresting below flood stage, have
decided to drop the Flood Watch for northern New Hampshire.
Rivers in northwest Maine are rising or nearing their crest, so
will keep the Flood Watch up for these areas.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ151-
     153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Hanes




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260749
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
349 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak ridge of high pressure will bring a return to mainly dry
weather later this morning through tonight with seasonable
temperatures.  Another fast moving low pressure system will bring a
period of widespread showers to the region Friday afternoon and
evening.  Milder temperatures return Saturday, but a cold front will
bring a brief shot of cooler air to the region Sunday into Monday. A
significant warming trend will occur Tuesday into Wednesday with dry
weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
235 AM Update...

Noting that visibilities have lowered to around 1/4 mile across
Nantucket, and heading downward across portions of Cape Cod and
S coastal Massachusetts. Expect E-SE winds to diminish as broad
low pressure moves slowly N-NE through the remainder of the
night. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for those areas, in
tandem with S coastal RI and Block Island. Should see improving
conditions around daybreak or so.

Last of the steadier rainfall has moved offshore, though noting
another batch of showers working N toward central and eastern
areas as seen on latest NE regional 88D radar imagery. Per WPC
surface analysis, appears this area of precip is associated
with triple point/weak low pres that should push across E Mass
by around 09Z or so. May also see a few brief heavy downpours
with this areas as it moves ashore. Will also monitor an area of
lightning flashes and C/G strokes that is well S of Cape Cod.
Previous areas of in cloud and C/G lightning has tended to
weaken as they moved across the cooler waters S of New England.

Expect the approaching cold front across E NY state to wrap
eastward around the low, pushing into western areas by around
daybreak. With continued light E-SE wind flow, will see low
clouds, areas of fog and even some patchy drizzle mainly across
the coastal plain, while a few showers will develop and move
across inland areas near the weak low along with patchy fog.
Visibilities may lower to 1/2 mile or less at times through
11Z-12Z especially near the S coast with the light onshore
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Today...

Upper level low will begin to pivot out of the region during
the day on Thursday. Still some lingering moisture in the mid-
levels with steep lapse rates which will yield to sct showers in
the morning. Deep layer moisture will push northward towards
Maine resulting in low precip chances by the afternoon hours.
Still expect sct to broken clouds but overall trend will be dry
by sunset.

Gusty WNW flow expected along as the mid level shortwave passes
through. Steep lapse rates and downsloping flow will result in
good mixing to near 850mb. Expect wind gusts to near 25-30 MPH
by the afternoon as highs reach into the mid to upper 60s.
Overall a pleasant Spring day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* A period of widespread showers Fri afternoon/eve with localized
  brief heavy rainfall possible

* Mainly dry and milder during the day Sat with just few showers
  possible across the interior

* Scattered showers possible Sat night into Sun but not a washout

* Mainly dry and cool Sun night into Mon

* Dry with a significant warming trend Tue/Wed

Details...

Friday and Friday night...

While much of Friday morning may end up dry...shortwave energy
lifting northeastward will result in a period of widespread showers
focused Friday afternoon/evening. Despite the shortwave energy
gradually deamplifying a modest southerly LLJ/Pwat axis will develop
ahead of it.  Guidance has trended stronger and further west with
the axis of the LLJ along with some elevated instability. These
ingredients should combined for a period of widespread showers
Friday afternoon/evening.  Brief localized heavy rainfall is
possible and perhaps even an isolated t-storm or two.  Greatest risk
for that will be across southeast New England on the nose of the LLJ.

High temperatures may reach the lower to middle 60s for a time
during the late morning/early afternoon...but readings should drop
back into the 50s once the rain arrives and some fog should develop.
The bulk of the rain should come to an end after midnight...but
areas of fog may linger.

Saturday...

An approaching cold front will result in a milder southwest flow of
air into southern New England.  Partial sunshine and good mixing
ahead of the front should allow afternoon high temperatures to reach
into the upper 60s to the lower 70s away from the marine influence
of the south coast.  Mainly dry weather expected Saturday...but
enough forcing/marginal instability may allow for a few showers to
develop during the afternoon across the interior.

Saturday night and Sunday...

The guidance has trended slower with the passage of the cold frontal
passage.  While confidence is low...the slower movement of the front
may allow for a bit better moisture return and perhaps a period of
scattered showers Saturday night into Sun. The main idea is that
while it does not look like a washout...a period of scattered
showers is certainly possible. Highs Sun may reach well into the 50s
to the lower 60s given the slower movement of the cold front.

Sunday night and Monday...

The latest model suite has slowed the departure of the deep upper
trough across the northeast.  Therefore...cool weather is on tap for
Sunday night and Monday.  Low temperatures Sun night probably will
bottom out well down into the 30s...so some frost is possible. Highs
on Monday should be mainly in the upper 50s to around 60.  Mainly
dry weather expected...although a few spot showers are possible on
Mon given cold pool aloft overhead.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

A significant warmup is still in the cards for the region as the
upper trough quickly departs and is replaced by upper level ridging.
This should allow highs to probably break 70 across much of the
region Tue and perhaps 80+ in some locations by Wed.  Weak pressure
gradient will likely allow for localized sea breezes at
times...resulting in cooler temperatures along the immediate coast.
Nonetheless...summerlike warmth is a good bet by the middle of next
week away from localized marine influences.  Dry weather is also
anticipated Tue/Wed as upper level ridge will result in little
synoptic forcing for any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...Moderate to High confidence.

Through 12Z...IFR-LIFR conditions.
Leftover showers with locally heavy rain through daybreak. Low
CIGS and areas of fog will linger across the terminals.

Today...Improving conditions to VFR with mix of MVFR north of
the Pike during the day. Gusty westerly winds between 20-30 kts
by the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Low risk for
TSRA through 05Z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Dense fog is
possible during the overnight.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Friday: VFR in the morning will be replaced by MVFR-IFR
conditions form west to east during the afternoon/early evening
as rain showers move across the region with even the low risk of
an isolated t-storm.  Areas of fog also expected to develop
late.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions. SHRA mainly in the
evening, but areas of fog and low clouds may persist longer.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor.
Winds have also diminished across Cape Cod Bay, so have ended
the Small Craft there. Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 25 kt.
Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers along with areas of
fog. Visibility locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters.

Today...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to W, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25-30 kt
through midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the day
across the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
develop by late afternoon with an isolated t-storm or two
possible. Areas of fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Rain showers likely with perhaps isolated thunderstorm. Areas of
fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ020>024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ232>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260747
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks north through western Maine today with
another round of showers possible this afternoon. This system
will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing clearing
Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low pressure
will move into the region late Fri and Friday night. Some
instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon and
evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives on
Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Area of steady rain has moved east into central and eastern
Maine, while behind it only a few isolated showers exist. Expect
the steady rain to continue to slowly push east this morning,
while fog develops in the wake of it. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise, hanging on longest across interior western Maine.

Surface low pressure lifts north through the area today while
upper level low pressure tracks east out of the Great Lakes and
into northern New England. As the upper low arrives, expect
areas of showers to develop. With cold air moving in aloft and
warm/moist air at ground level, cannot rule out a thunderstorm
this afternoon. Given cold temperatures aloft, small hail is
possible with any heftier showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Upper low moves east tonight with some clearing expected.
Temperatures fall back into the low 40s with some upper 30s
possible, buoyed in part by remnant low level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

*Continued shower activity through the weekend will contribute
 to rises on area rivers and streams
*Significant warm up expected early next week

Low pressure associated with a northern stream short wave will
be ejecting northeast late Thursday night into the wee hours
Friday morning. Subsidence behind this system will allow for
some clearing skies early Friday before additional moisture
arrives ahead of the next weather maker. This system will be
ushered in on a southern stream wave along the mid Atlantic
coast line, similar to out current storm system.

Widespread showers are forecast for our entire area over the
weekend. Coastal low pressure will likely stay just offshore
until crossing the Gulf of Maine and into Maine Saturday
morning. Sprawling high pressure over the Plains and western
Great Lakes region will interfere with farther movement
inland. An additional mesolow deepens over the eastern Great
Lakes and will follow suit, bringing with it a trailing cold
front. QPF amounts will be in the 1-2" range for the Friday to
Sunday time frame, delivering another good soaking rain and
adding to already high running creeks and streams. We may see
some snow mix in over the mountains Sunday night as cooler air
arrives behind the multiple FROPAs, but accumulations will be
light.

During this time temperatures will be below normal for highs
due to clouds and precipitation. Overnight lows will be chilly,
especially Monday morning, which will see some freezing
temperatures over western NH and northern ME. Ironically, our
frost/freeze program for crops does not start until May 1, so
take care to cover any sensitive plants.

Monday through mid week we will see some very warm readings with
highs in the 70s areawide with perhaps an 80 degree location or
two.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Steadier rain moves into central and eastern Maine
this morning, while some fog develops behind it. This fog should
lift a few hours after sunrise with VFR conditions developing
from southwest to northeast. But just as the sun begins to come
out, clouds will fill back in and showers form this afternoon.
Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm either.

Long Term...VFR early Friday with conditions lowering to
MVFR/IFR late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. VFR
conditions return for all terminals except perhaps KHIE Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will develop in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds gradually diminishing this morning, shifting
to the west by afternoon. Seas remain high through the day and
possibly into Friday.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain AOA 5 feet
Friday into Saturday so SCAs for seas will likely be needed.
On Sunday winds become westerly and should remain generally
below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Steadier rain has ended and rises on area rivers have been
noted. With the more persistent rain having exited New Hampshire
and most rivers there already cresting below flood stage, have
decided to drop the Flood Watch for northern New Hampshire.
Rivers in northwest Maine are rising or nearing their crest, so
will keep the Flood Watch up for these areas.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ151-
     153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Hanes




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260647
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
247 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region overnight. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a period of showers Friday. A cool
down will occur Saturday night and Sunday, but this will be
short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures are in store for
the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM Update...

Noting that visibilities have lowered to around 1/4 mile across
Nantucket, and heading downward across portions of Cape Cod and
S coastal Massachusetts. Expect E-SE winds to diminish as broad
low pressure moves slowly N-NE through the remainder of the
night. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for those areas, in
tandem with S coastal RI and Block Island. Should see improving
conditions around daybreak or so.

Last of the steadier rainfall has moved offshore, though noting
another batch of showers working N toward central and eastern
areas as seen on latest NE regional 88D radar imagery. Per WPC
surface analysis, appears this area of precip is associated
with triple point/weak low pres that should push across E Mass
by around 09Z or so. May also see a few brief heavy downpours
with this areas as it moves ashore. Will also monitor an area of
lightning flashes and C/G strokes that is well S of Cape Cod.
Previous areas of in cloud and C/G lightning has tended to
weaken as they moved across the cooler waters S of New England.

Expect the approaching cold front across E NY state to wrap
eastward around the low, pushing into western areas by around
daybreak. With continued light E-SE wind flow, will see low
clouds, areas of fog and even some patchy drizzle mainly across
the coastal plain, while a few showers will develop and move
across inland areas near the weak low along with patchy fog.
Visibilities may lower to 1/2 mile or less at times through
11Z-12Z especially near the S coast with the light onshore
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Today...

Upper level low will begin to pivot out of the region during
the day on Thursday. Still some lingering moisture in the mid-
levels with steep lapse rates which will yield to sct showers in
the morning. Deep layer moisture will push northward towards
Maine resulting in low precip chances by the afternoon hours.
Still expect sct to broken clouds but overall trend will be dry
by sunset.

Gusty WNW flow expected along as the mid level shortwave passes
through. Steep lapse rates and downsloping flow will result in
good mixing to near 850mb. Expect wind gusts to near 25-30 MPH
by the afternoon as highs reach into the mid to upper 60s.
Overall a pleasant Spring day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* A period of showers Fri afternoon/evening
* Scattered showers Sat, mainly interior
* Dry and cooler Sun then seasonably mild Mon
* Dry with a significant warming trend Tue/Wed

Tonight and Friday...

Southern stream shortwave will be lifting northward into SNE during
the afternoon/evening. Shortwave is deamplifying but modest low
level jet and PWAT plume will bring a period of showers to much of
SNE, especially afternoon into early evening. There may be a focus
for brief heavy showers and an isold t-storm across RI and SE MA
where some elevated instability is present along the nose of
the low level jet. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Saturday...

Next mid level shortwave and cold front approaches from the west.
This will lead to an increasing risk of sct showers, mainly across
central/western MA and northern CT during the afternoon. Otherwise,
expect pt-mosunny skies in the coastal plain with increasing
afternoon clouds in western New Eng. There is a low risk a few
showers could move into eastern New Eng Sat night as the front moves
through. With pre-frontal SW flow, milder temps expected Sat,
reaching mid 60s to near 70, except cooler along the south coast.

Sunday...

Cooler post-frontal airmass as deep trough settles over the
northeast and 850 mb temps cool to around -4C. Temps will remain
mostly in the 50s, with a few locations topping out near 60 in RI
and eastern MA. Chilly night Sun night with lows in the 30s but
close to 30 across the typical colder locations.  Frost headlines
may be needed where growing season has started, with greatest risk
across northern CT.

Monday through Wednesday...

A pattern change will occur next week as deep trough lifts out Mon
and is replaced by building heights and mid level ridging through
the middle of the week. Monday will be the transition day with
seasonably mild temps after a cold start to the day. Then warming
mid level temps will result in temps reaching into the 70s Tue with
potential for some lower 80s Wed. But SW flow will result in cooler
temps along the south coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Through 12Z...IFR-LIFR conditions.
Leftover showers with locally heavy rain through daybreak. Low
CIGS and areas of fog will linger across the terminals.

Today...Improving conditions to VFR with mix of MVFR north of
the Pike during the day. Gusty westerly winds between 20-30 kts
by the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Low risk for
TSRA through 05Z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Dense fog is
possible during the overnight.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor.
Winds have also diminished across Cape Cod Bay, so have ended
the Small Craft there. Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 25 kt.
Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers along with areas of
fog. Visibility locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters.

Today...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to W, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25-30 kt
through midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the day
across the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Tonight through Monday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ020>024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ232>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260245
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1045 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the mid Atlantic coast will move north through
the area overnight and early Thursday with a good soaking rain.
This system will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing
clearing Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low
pressure will move into the region late Fri and Friday night.
Some instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon
and evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives
on Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM Update...Based on the more showery appearance of echoes
across southern New England, isolated strikes in western MA, and
modeled weak elevated instability developing overnight, have
added isolated thunder to southern zones for the overnight
hours. No changes otherwise.

10 PM Update...Rain continues to push northward across the
forecast area at this time. It will taper off from south to
north over the next couple of hours leaving light rain/showers,
drizzle and fog for a couple of hours. Thereafter another
resurgence of heavier rain should take place as a short wave
trough approaches from the west. This activity will continue
into or through the morning hours Thursday. As such, the flood
watches remain up for the mountains and foothills. In addition,
a rumble or two of thunder will be possible tonight into
Thursday morning as mid level lapse rates steepen with the
approach of the upper low.

6 PM Update...Have updated PoPs and winds a little bit based on
latest observations as well as mesoscale model output. Heaviest
slug of rain is moving into southern zones now, and should
mainly be north and east of the forecast area around or just
after midnight (except for the mid coast of Maine). Fog and
drizzle should end up filling in behind this slug of rain and
last through the overnight. As the main short wave trough
impinges on the area early Thursday morning, showery
precipitation should develop and sweep across the forecast area,
as the air mass becomes weakly unstable. Cannot rule out
isolated thunder at that time.

Previously...

Most of the precip with this event will fall through this
evening as decent slug of rain, currently congealing over SE MA,
will move NNE across areas along and just inland of the coast.
This is in response to tightening WAA at mid-lvls, which is also
developing a low level jet in the region. Models are in some
agreement that some places near the coast could see close to an
inch of rain or so between 22-06Z or so. So, the +RA wording was
put into the forecast for the evening. Could see some localized
areas of urban and poor drainage flooding, but overall not
anticipating anything significant. The surge of decent SE
upslope flow overnight, will also produce enhanced amounts in
these areas of the mtns, and this will drain into some rivers
and tributaries that are already running high due to snowmelt,
so, the flood watch will be held as it is. The rain will lighten
up some after midnight, but should continue thru most of the
night before it tapers off to showers anywhere but maybe srn NH.
Temps will fall off a little bit tonight, but lows will mostly
be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Could see another surge of steady rain move across ern zones Thu
morning, but other areas will be more showery, although clouds
and fog will linger through at least the first part of the
morning, until winds shift to the west. Should see showers end
around midday in srn NH and far SW ME, but clouds  will linger
through a good part of the day, with some breaks of sun late.
Most everywhere else will see a chance of showers thru the
afternoon, with mainly cloudy skies. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 50s in the mtns and eastern zones, where
clouds and rain will hang around longer, to 60-65 in SW ME and
srn NH, where it will be drier, with a greater chance of some
sun, and downslope W flow.

Should see showers ending early Thu evening everywhere with clearing
overnight. Winds will diminish a bit and allow temps to cool,
with lows upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate another short wave trof moving across the
southern jet stream will lift northeast to the mid Atlantic
region Fri forming another area of low pres along the mid
Atlantic coast that will move north into the area with a similar
track as its predecessor. This will mean another round of rain
or showers will overspread the area late Fri through Fri night.
QPF amounts may be in the 1/2-1 inch range. The system will be a
fast mover and move into the maritimes by Sat with a dry slot
of air to arrive for Sat with a cyclonic flow aloft remaining.
The combination of some heating on Sat with the cyclonic flow
aloft may allow some scattered afternoon showers to develop. On
Sunday the cold trof aloft over the Great Lakes progresses east
and allows a cooler northwest flow to develop Sunday with more
instability showers expected due to steepening lapse rates with
any daytime surface heating. Winds may become gusty due to the
strong northwest winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Temps
will be cool through Sunday.

Early next week a progressive large upper ridge will build east
and become further amplified by Wed with a much warmer southwest
flow to develop with dry conditions. Bottom line is a major
warm up is looking like a reality beginning early next week and
continuing through at least mid week. With a broad west to
southwest flow expected Tue-Wed, guidance temps will likely be
forecast too low for days 6-7. For now stayed close to guidance
temps to match surrounding forecast areas.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Conds will drop to IFR or lower everywhere this
evening and stay there into early Thu. Some improvement to VFR
possible by afternoon at KCON/KMHT/KPSM/KPWM, with MVFR
lingering thru the afternoon elsewhere. VFR expected everywhere
Thu night.

Long Term...VFR early Fri with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR
late Fri into Sat in rain showers. VFR conditions return Sunday
with gusty NW winds in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA up for both winds and seas tonight, as SE winds
gust to 30 kts or so. Seas stay up Thu into Thu night, although
winds will shift to W and diminish, so will likely need to
convert SCA to haz seas versions during the day Thu, and extend
it thru at least Thu night.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain aoa 5 ft F
Fri into Sat so SCA`s for seas will likely be needed even
though winds will remain light for that time frame. On Sun winds
shift to westerly and continue into early next week and should
remain generally below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued snow melt to combine with about
an inch or so of rainfall to bring further rises to all rivers,
but especially the headwaters that drain eastward out of the
mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas most likely
to see minor flooding, and some locations are currently forecast
by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because of this, we have
kept a flood Watch going covering the most likely impacted
areas, including the upper Saco River as well as tributaries of
the Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled out on the
upper Pemigewasset River as well as along the Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-
     021.
NH...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ151-153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260242
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1042 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region overnight. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a period of showers Friday. A cool
down will occur Saturday night and Sunday, but this will be
short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures are in store for
the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1015 PM Update...

Area of SHRA/+SHRA moving across central and northern areas this
evening. May see an embedded brief thunderstorm as it moves N-NE
across NE and N central Mass through around midnight or so.
Noting another area of showers E of the central NJ coast on
latest NE regional 88D radar imagery. Spotty C/G lightning seen
with this areas, so could see isold thunder with this. As the
heavier showers shift NE, may see leftover light showers or even
drizzle with low level moisture in place.

Still noting some patchy dense fog along the RI S coast, though
visibilities have been between 1/4 and 1/2 mile. Also starting
to lower across S coastal Mass, will monitor this for possible
Dense Fog Advisories there.

S-SE winds have been diminishing, but still noting some gusts up
to 20-25 kt. Will continue to see downward trend as the low
level jet moves offshore.

Previous Discussion...

Convective showers with locally heavy rain continue to lift
north across eastern half of New England. Activity is located
along the nose of the low level jet. As the axis of the low
level jet shifts to the east, main focus for heavy rain will
gradually shift offshore after midnight. Main impact will be
localized nuisance poor drainage street flooding in areas of
heavy rain.

Another concern for tonight is dense fog as some mid level
drying moves in tonight while low levels remain saturated. Low
vsbys have developed over southern RI where we will issue a
dense fog advisory through tonight. Plenty of low level moisture
present and advisory may need to be expanded along the rest of
the south coast.

As the upper level low rotates through, the mid and upper
levels begin to saturated and there could be a redevelopment in
strong showers moving through SNE. Best timing is between 03Z
and 09Z as strong mid-level omega pushes through. The east
coast of MA has the best shot of seeing the strong downpours.
Still cannot rule out the thunder potential as RAP data has
several hundred joules of MUCape and Showalters dropping below
0C. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat as well as gusty
winds, especially along the passing cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Thursday...

Upper level low will begin to pivot out of the region during the day
on Thursday. Still some lingering moisture in the mid-levels with
steep lapse rates which will yield to sct showers in the morning.
Deep layer moisture will push northward towards Maine resulting in
low precip chances by the afternoon hours. Still expect sct to
broken clouds but overall trend will be dry by sunset.

Gusty WNW flow expected along as the mid level shortwave passes
through. Steep lapse rates and downsloping flow will result in good
mixing to near 850mb. Expect wind gusts to near 25-30 MPH by the
afternoon as highs reach into the mid to upper 60s. Overall a
pleasant Spring day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* A period of showers Fri afternoon/evening
* Scattered showers Sat, mainly interior
* Dry and cooler Sun then seasonably mild Mon
* Dry with a significant warming trend Tue/Wed

Friday...

Southern stream shortwave will be lifting northward into SNE during
the afternoon/evening. Shortwave is deamplifying but modest low
level jet and PWAT plume will bring a period of showers to much of
SNE, especially afternoon into early evening. There may be a focus
for brief heavy showers and an isold t-storm across RI and SE MA
where some elevated instability is present along the nose of the low
level jet. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday...

Next mid level shortwave and cold front approaches from the west.
This will lead to an increasing risk of sct showers, mainly across
central/western MA and northern CT during the afternoon. Otherwise,
expect pt-mosunny skies in the coastal plain with increasing
afternoon clouds in western New Eng. There is a low risk a few
showers could move into eastern New Eng Sat night as the front moves
through. With pre-frontal SW flow, milder temps expected Sat,
reaching mid 60s to near 70, except cooler along the south coast.

Sunday...

Cooler post-frontal airmass as deep trough settles over the
northeast and 850 mb temps cool to around -4C. Temps will remain
mostly in the 50s, with a few locations topping out near 60 in RI
and eastern MA. Chilly night Sun night with lows in the 30s but
close to 30 across the typical colder locations.  Frost headlines
may be needed where growing season has started, with greatest risk
across northern CT.

Monday through Wednesday...

A pattern change will occur next week as deep trough lifts out Mon
and is replaced by building heights and mid level ridging through
the middle of the week. Monday will be the transition day with
seasonably mild temps after a cold start to the day. Then warming
mid level temps will result in temps reaching into the 70s Tue with
potential for some lower 80s Wed. But SW flow will result in cooler
temps along the south coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Overnight...IFR-LIFR conditions. Showers with locally heavy
rain through this evening and can`t rule out an isold t-storm
through 05Z across E Mass/RI/NE CT terminals. Low CIGS and
areas of fog will linger across the terminals much of the night.

Thursday...Improving conditions to VFR with mix of MVFR north of
the Pike during the day. Gusty westerly winds between 20-30 kts
by the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Low risk for
TSRA through 05Z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Dense fog is
possible during the overnight.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Overnight...Moderate confidence. Small Craft Advisories for all
waters except Boston Harbor. Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 30
kt. Low risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening
across the southeast waters. Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain
showers, heavy at times along with areas of fog and isolated
thunderstorms. Visibility locally below 1 nm at times across the
southern waters.

Thursday...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to W, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25-30 kt
through midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the
day across the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>234-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dunten
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Dunten/EVT
MARINE...KJC/Dunten/EVT
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260200
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the mid Atlantic coast will move north through
the area overnight and early Thursday with a good soaking rain.
This system will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing
clearing Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low
pressure will move into the region late Fri and Friday night.
Some instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon
and evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives
on Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...Rain continues to push northward across the
forecast area at this time. It will taper off from south to
north over the next couple of hours leaving light rain/showers,
drizzle and fog for a couple of hours. Thereafter another
resurgence of heavier rain should take place as a short wave
trough approaches from the west. This activity will continue
into or through the morning hours Thursday. As such, the flood
watches remain up for the mountains and foothills. In addition,
a rumble or two of thunder will be possible tonight into
Thursday morning as mid level lapse rates steepen with the
approach of the upper low.

6 PM Update...Have updated PoPs and winds a little bit based on
latest observations as well as mesoscale model output. Heaviest
slug of rain is moving into southern zones now, and should
mainly be north and east of the forecast area around or just
after midnight (except for the mid coast of Maine). Fog and
drizzle should end up filling in behind this slug of rain and
last through the overnight. As the main short wave trough
impinges on the area early Thursday morning, showery
precipitation should develop and sweep across the forecast area,
as the air mass becomes weakly unstable. Cannot rule out
isolated thunder at that time.

Previously...

Most of the precip with this event will fall through this
evening as decent slug of rain, currently congealing over SE MA,
will move NNE across areas along and just inland of the coast.
This is in response to tightening WAA at mid-lvls, which is also
developing a low level jet in the region. Models are in some
agreement that some places near the coast could see close to an
inch of rain or so between 22-06Z or so. So, the +RA wording was
put into the forecast for the evening. Could see some localized
areas of urban and poor drainage flooding, but overall not
anticipating anything significant. The surge of decent SE
upslope flow overnight, will also produce enhanced amounts in
these areas of the mtns, and this will drain into some rivers
and tributaries that are already running high due to snowmelt,
so, the flood watch will be held as it is. The rain will lighten
up some after midnight, but should continue thru most of the
night before it tapers off to showers anywhere but maybe srn NH.
Temps will fall off a little bit tonight, but lows will mostly
be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Could see another surge of steady rain move across ern zones Thu
morning, but other areas will be more showery, although clouds
and fog will linger through at least the first part of the
morning, until winds shift to the west. Should see showers end
around midday in srn NH and far SW ME, but clouds  will linger
through a good part of the day, with some breaks of sun late.
Most everywhere else will see a chance of showers thru the
afternoon, with mainly cloudy skies. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 50s in the mtns and eastern zones, where
clouds and rain will hang around longer, to 60-65 in SW ME and
srn NH, where it will be drier, with a greater chance of some
sun, and downslope W flow.

Should see showers ending early Thu evening everywhere with clearing
overnight. Winds will diminish a bit and allow temps to cool,
with lows upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate another short wave trof moving across the
southern jet stream will lift northeast to the mid Atlantic
region Fri forming another area of low pres along the mid
Atlantic coast that will move north into the area with a similar
track as its predecessor. This will mean another round of rain
or showers will overspread the area late Fri through Fri night.
QPF amounts may be in the 1/2-1 inch range. The system will be a
fast mover and move into the maritimes by Sat with a dry slot
of air to arrive for Sat with a cyclonic flow aloft remaining.
The combination of some heating on Sat with the cyclonic flow
aloft may allow some scattered afternoon showers to develop. On
Sunday the cold trof aloft over the Great Lakes progresses east
and allows a cooler northwest flow to develop Sunday with more
instability showers expected due to steepening lapse rates with
any daytime surface heating. Winds may become gusty due to the
strong northwest winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Temps
will be cool through Sunday.

Early next week a progressive large upper ridge will build east
and become further amplified by Wed with a much warmer southwest
flow to develop with dry conditions. Bottom line is a major
warm up is looking like a reality beginning early next week and
continuing through at least mid week. With a broad west to
southwest flow expected Tue-Wed, guidance temps will likely be
forecast too low for days 6-7. For now stayed close to guidance
temps to match surrounding forecast areas.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Conds will drop to IFR or lower everywhere this
evening and stay there into early Thu. Some improvement to VFR
possible by afternoon at KCON/KMHT/KPSM/KPWM, with MVFR
lingering thru the afternoon elsewhere. VFR expected everywhere
Thu night.

Long Term...VFR early Fri with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR
late Fri into Sat in rain showers. VFR conditions return Sunday
with gusty NW winds in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA up for both winds and seas tonight, as SE winds
gust to 30 kts or so. Seas stay up Thu into Thu night, although
winds will shift to W and diminish, so will likely need to
convert SCA to haz seas versions during the day Thu, and extend
it thru at least Thu night.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain aoa 5 ft F
Fri into Sat so SCA`s for seas will likely be needed even
though winds will remain light for that time frame. On Sun winds
shift to westerly and continue into early next week and should
remain generally below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued snow melt to combine with about
an inch or so of rainfall to bring further rises to all rivers,
but especially the headwaters that drain eastward out of the
mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas most likely
to see minor flooding, and some locations are currently forecast
by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because of this, we have
kept a flood Watch going covering the most likely impacted
areas, including the upper Saco River as well as tributaries of
the Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled out on the
upper Pemigewasset River as well as along the Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-
     021.
NH...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ151-153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252311
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
711 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region tonight. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a period of showers Friday. A cool
down will occur Saturday night and Sunday, but this will be
short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures are in store for
the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM Update...

Convective showers with locally heavy rain continue to lift
north across eastern half of New England. Activity is located
along the nose of the low level jet. In addition, still can`t
rule out an isold t-storm as elevated instability is present.
As the axis of the low level jet shifts to the east main focus
for heavy rain will gradually shift offshore after midnight.
Main impact will be localized nuisance poor drainage street
flooding in areas of heavy rain. Gusty southerly winds SE New
Eng this evening will diminish late this evening.

Other concern for tonight is dense fog as some mid level drying
moves in tonight while low levels remain saturated. Low vsbys
have developed over southern RI where we will issue a dense fog
advisory through tonight. Plenty of low level moisture present
and advisory may need to be expanded along the rest of the south
coast.

Previous discussion...

Surface low still in the vicinity with digging upper level
trough approaching from the west. The evening will start off
with a dry weather trend as mid-level dry slot pushes through.
Still quite saturated as the low levels so fog and drizzle may
be an issue. As the upper level low rotates through, the mid and
upper levels begin to saturated and there could be a
redevelopment in strong showers moving through SNE. Best timing
is between 3-9z as strong mid-level omega pushes through. The
east coast of MA has the best shot of seeing the strong
downpours. Still cannot rule out the thunder potential as RAP
data has several hundred julep of MUCape and showalters dropping
below 0C. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat as well as
gusty winds, especially along the passing cold front.

Ahead of the passage of the front, patchy dense fog is possible
across the region. This is due to the saturated low level moisture
as well as weak pressure gradient ahead of the FROPA. Both the HRRR-
TL and the NARRE indicated high probs that visibilities will drop
at or below a mile, with some potential for less than 1/4 mi.
Locations along Long Island are starting to drop below 1/2 mile, but
still see coastal above 1-2 miles. So confidence isn`t quite high to
issue a dense fog adv at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Thursday...

Upper level low will begin to pivot out of the region during the day
on Thursday. Still some lingering moisture in the mid-levels with
steep lapse rates which will yield to sct showers in the morning.
Deep layer moisture will push northward towards Maine resulting in
low precip chances by the afternoon hours. Still expect sct to
broken clouds but overall trend will be dry by sunset.

Gusty WNW flow expected along as the mid level shortwave passes
through. Steep lapse rates and downsloping flow will result in good
mixing to near 850mb. Expect wind gusts to near 25-30 MPH by the
afternoon as highs reach into the mid to upper 60s. Overall a
pleasant Spring day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* A period of showers Fri afternoon/evening
* Scattered showers Sat, mainly interior
* Dry and cooler Sun then seasonably mild Mon
* Dry with a significant warming trend Tue/Wed

Friday...

Southern stream shortwave will be lifting northward into SNE during
the afternoon/evening. Shortwave is deamplifying but modest low
level jet and PWAT plume will bring a period of showers to much of
SNE, especially afternoon into early evening. There may be a focus
for brief heavy showers and an isold t-storm across RI and SE MA
where some elevated instability is present along the nose of the low
level jet. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday...

Next mid level shortwave and cold front approaches from the west.
This will lead to an increasing risk of sct showers, mainly across
central/western MA and northern CT during the afternoon. Otherwise,
expect pt-mosunny skies in the coastal plain with increasing
afternoon clouds in western New Eng. There is a low risk a few
showers could move into eastern New Eng Sat night as the front moves
through. With pre-frontal SW flow, milder temps expected Sat,
reaching mid 60s to near 70, except cooler along the south coast.

Sunday...

Cooler post-frontal airmass as deep trough settles over the
northeast and 850 mb temps cool to around -4C. Temps will remain
mostly in the 50s, with a few locations topping out near 60 in RI
and eastern MA. Chilly night Sun night with lows in the 30s but
close to 30 across the typical colder locations.  Frost headlines
may be needed where growing season has started, with greatest risk
across northern CT.

Monday through Wednesday...

A pattern change will occur next week as deep trough lifts out Mon
and is replaced by building heights and mid level ridging through
the middle of the week. Monday will be the transition day with
seasonably mild temps after a cold start to the day. Then warming
mid level temps will result in temps reaching into the 70s Tue with
potential for some lower 80s Wed. But SW flow will result in cooler
temps along the south coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Tonight...IFR-LIFR conditions. Showers with locally heavy rain
through this evening and can`t rule out an isold t-storm. Low
CIGS and areas of fog will linger across the terminals much of
the night.

Thursday...Improving conditions to VFR with mix of MVFR north of
the Pike during the day. Gusty westerly winds between 20-30 kts
by the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Low risk for
TSRA from 21Z-04Z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Dense fog is
possible during the overnight.


Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Small Craft Advisories for all
waters except Boston Harbor. Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 30
kt. Low risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening across
the southeast waters. Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain
showers, heavy at times along with areas of fog and isolated
thunderstorms. Visibility locally below 1 nm at times across
the southern waters tonight.

Thursday...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to W, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25-30 kt
through midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the
day across the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>234-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dunten
NEAR TERM...KJC/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Dunten
MARINE...KJC/Dunten
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252152
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
552 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the mid Atlantic coast will move north through
the area tonight and early Thursday with a good soaking rain.
This system will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing
clearing Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low
pressure will move into the region late Fri and Friday night.
Some instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon
and evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives
on Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
6 PM Update...Have updated PoPs and winds a little bit based on
latest observations as well as mesoscale model output. Heaviest
slug of rain is moving into southern zones now, and should
mainly be north and east of the forecast area around or just
after midnight (except for the mid coast of Maine). Fog and
drizzle should end up filling in behind this slug of rain and
last through the overnight. As the main short wave trough
impinges on the area early Thursday morning, showery
precipitation should develop and sweep across the forecast area,
as the air mass becomes weakly unstable. Cannot rule out
isolated thunder at that time.

Previously...

Most of the precip with this event will fall through this
evening as decent slug of rain, currently congealing over SE MA,
will move NNE across areas along and just inland of the coast.
This is in response to tightening WAA at mid-lvls, which is also
developing a low level jet in the region. Models are in some
agreement that some places near the coast could see close to an
inch of rain or so between 22-06Z or so. So, the +RA wording was
put into the forecast for the evening. Could see some localized
areas of urban and poor drainage flooding, but overall not
anticipating anything significant. The surge of decent SE
upslope flow overnight, will also produce enhanced amounts in
these areas of the mtns, and this will drain into some rivers
and tributaries that are already running high due to snowmelt,
so, the flood watch will be held as it is. The rain will lighten
up some after midnight, but should continue thru most of the
night before it tapers off to showers anywhere but maybe srn NH.
Temps will fall off a little bit tonight, but lows will mostly
be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Could see another surge of steady rain move across ern zones Thu
morning, but other areas will be more showery, although clouds
and fog will linger through at least the first part of the
morning, until winds shift to the west. Should see showers end
around midday in srn NH and far SW ME, but clouds  will linger
through a good part of the day, with some breaks of sun late.
Most everywhere else will see a chance of showers thru the
afternoon, with mainly cloudy skies. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 50s in the mtns and eastern zones, where
clouds and rain will hang around longer, to 60-65 in SW ME and
srn NH, where it will be drier, with a greater chance of some
sun, and downslope W flow.

Should see showers ending early Thu evening everywhere with clearing
overnight. Winds will diminish a bit and allow temps to cool,
with lows upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate another short wave trof moving across the
southern jet stream will lift northeast to the mid Atlantic
region Fri forming another area of low pres along the mid
Atlantic coast that will move north into the area with a similar
track as its predecessor. This will mean another round of rain
or showers will overspread the area late Fri through Fri night.
QPF amounts may be in the 1/2-1 inch range. The system will be a
fast mover and move into the maritimes by Sat with a dry slot
of air to arrive for Sat with a cyclonic flow aloft remaining.
The combination of some heating on Sat with the cyclonic flow
aloft may allow some scattered afternoon showers to develop. On
Sunday the cold trof aloft over the Great Lakes progresses east
and allows a cooler northwest flow to develop Sunday with more
instability showers expected due to steepening lapse rates with
any daytime surface heating. Winds may become gusty due to the
strong northwest winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Temps
will be cool through Sunday.

Early next week a progressive large upper ridge will build east
and become further amplified by Wed with a much warmer southwest
flow to develop with dry conditions. Bottom line is a major
warm up is looking like a reality beginning early next week and
continuing through at least mid week. With a broad west to
southwest flow expected Tue-Wed, guidance temps will likely be
forecast too low for days 6-7. For now stayed close to guidance
temps to match surrounding forecast areas.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Conds will drop to IFR or lower everywhere this
evening and stay there into early Thu. Some improvement to VFR
possible by afternoon at KCON/KMHT/KPSM/KPWM, with MVFR
lingering thru the afternoon elsewhere. VFR expected everywhere
Thu night.

Long Term...VFR early Fri with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR
late Fri into Sat in rain showers. VFR conditions return Sunday
with gusty NW winds in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA up for both winds and seas tonight, as SE winds
gust to 30 kts or so. Seas stay up Thu into Thu night, although
winds will shift to W and diminish, so will likely need to
convert SCA to haz seas versions during the day Thu, and extend
it thru at least Thu night.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain aoa 5 ft F
Fri into Sat so SCA`s for seas will likely be needed even
though winds will remain light for that time frame. On Sun winds
shift to westerly and continue into early next week and should
remain generally below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued snow melt to combine with about
an inch or so of rainfall to bring further rises to all rivers,
but especially the headwaters that drain eastward out of the
mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas most likely
to see minor flooding, and some locations are currently forecast
by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because of this, we have
kept a flood Watch going covering the most likely impacted
areas, including the upper Saco River as well as tributaries of
the Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled out on the
upper Pemigewasset River as well as along the Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-
     021.
NH...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ151-153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251959
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
359 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the mid Atlantic coast will move north through
the area tonight and early Thursday with a good soaking rain.
This system will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing
clearing Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low
pressure will move into the region late Fri and Friday night.
Some instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon
and evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives
on Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Most of the precip with this even will fall through this evening
as decent slug of rain, currently congealing over SE MA, will
move NNE across areas along and just inland of the coast. This
is in response to tightening WAA at mid-lvls, which is also
developing a low level jet in the region. Models are in some
agreement that some places near the coast could see close to an
inch of rain or so between 22-06Z or so. So, the +RA wording was
put into the forecast for the evening. Could see some localized
areas of urban and poor drainage flooding, but overall not
anticipating anything significant. The surge of decent SE
upslope flow overnight, will also produce enhanced amounts in
these areas of the mtns, and this will drain into some rivers
and tributaries that are already running high due to snowmelt,
so, the flood watch will be held as it is. The rain will lighten
up some after midnight, but should continue thru most of the
night before it tapers off to showers anywhere but maybe srn NH.
Temps will fall off a little bit tonight, but lows will mostly
be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Could see another surge of steady rain move across ern zones Thu
morning, but other areas will be more showery, although clouds
and fog will linger through at least the first part of the
morning, until winds shift to the west. Should see showers end
around midday in srn NH and far SW ME, but clouds  will linger
through a good part of the day, with some breaks of sun late.
Most everywhere else will see a chance of showers thru the
afternoon, with mainly cloudy skies. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 50s in the mtns and eastern zones, where
clouds and rain will hang around longer, to 60-65 in SW ME and
srn NH, where it will be drier, with a greater chance of some
sun, and downslope W flow.

Should see showers ending early Thu evening everywhere with clearing
overnight. Winds will diminish a bit and allow temps to cool,
with lows upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate another short wave trof moving across the
southern jet stream will lift northeast to the mid Atlantic
region Fri forming another area of low pres along the mid
Atlantic coast that will move north into the area with a similar
track as its predecessor. This will mean another round of rain
or showers will overspread the area late Fri through Fri night.
QPF amounts may be in the 1/2-1 inch range. The system will be a
fast mover and move into the maritimes by Sat with a dry slot
of air to arrive for Sat with a cyclonic flow aloft remaining.
The combination of some heating on Sat with the cyclonic flow
aloft may allow some scattered afternoon showers to develop. On
Sunday the cold trof aloft over the Great Lakes progresses east
and allows a cooler northwest flow to develop Sunday with more
instability showers expected due to steepening lapse rates with
any daytime surface heating. Winds may become gusty due to the
strong northwest winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Temps
will be cool through Sunday.

Early next week a progressive large upper ridge will build east
and become further amplified by Wed with a much warmer southwest
flow to develop with dry conditions. Bottom line is a major
warm up is looking like a reality beginning early next week and
continuing through at least mid week. With a broad west to
southwest flow expected Tue-Wed, guidance temps will likely be
forecast too low for days 6-7. For now stayed close to guidance
temps to match surrounding forecast areas.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Conds will drop to IFR or lower everywhere this
evening and stay there into early Thu. Some improvement to VFR
possible by afternoon at KCON/KMHT/KPSM/KPWM, with MVFR
lingering thru the afternoon elsewhere. VFR expected everywhere
Thu night.

Long Term...VFR early Fri with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR
late Fri into Sat in rain showers. VFR conditions return Sunday
with gusty NW winds in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA up for both winds and seas tonight, as SE winds
gust to 30 kts or so. Seas stay up Thu into Thu night, although
winds will shift to W and diminish, so will likely need to
convert SCA to haz seas versions during the day Thu, and extend
it thru at least Thu night.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain aoa 5 ft F
Fri into Sat so SCA`s for seas will likely be needed even
though winds will remain light for that time frame. On Sun winds
shift to westerly and continue into early next week and should
remain generally below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued snow melt to combine with about
an inch or so of rainfall to bring further rises to all rivers,
but especially the headwaters that drain eastward out of the
mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas most likely
to see minor flooding, and some locations are currently forecast
by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because of this, we have
issued a Flood Watch covering the most likely impacted areas,
including the upper Saco River as well as tributaries of the
Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled out on the upper
Pemigewasset River as well as along the Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251958
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
358 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the mid Atlantic coast will move north through
the area tonight and early Thursday with a good soaking rain.
This system will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing
clearing Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low
pressure will move into the region late Fri and Friday night.
Some instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon
and evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives
on Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Most of the precip with this even will fall through this evening
as decent slug of rain, currently congealing over SE MA, will
move NNE across areas along and just inland of the coast. This
is in response to tightening WAA at mid-lvls, which is also
developing a low level jet in the region. Models are in some
agreement that some places near the coast could see close to an
inch of rain or so between 22-06Z or so. So, the +RA wording was
put into the forecast for the evening. Could see some localized
areas of urban and poor drainage flooding, but overall not
anticipating anything significant. The surge of decent SE
upslope flow overnight, will also produce enhanced amounts in
these areas of the mtns, and this will drain into some rivers
and tributaries that are already running high due to snowmelt,
so, the flood watch will be held as it is. The rain will lighten
up some after midnight, but should continue thru most of the
night before it tapers off to showers anywhere but maybe srn NH.
Temps will fall off a little bit tonight, but lows will mostly
be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Could see another surge of steady rain move across ern zones Thu
morning, but other areas will be more showery, although clouds
and fog will linger through at least the first part of the
morning, until winds shift to the west. Should see showers end
around midday in srn NH and far SW ME, but clouds  will linger
through a good part of the day, with some breaks of sun late.
Most everywhere else will see a chance of showers thru the
afternoon, with mainly cloudy skies. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 50s in the mtns and eastern zones, where
clouds and rain will hang around longer, to 60-65 in SW ME and
srn NH, where it will be drier, with a greater chance of some
sun, and downslope W flow.

Should see showers ending early Thu evening everywhere with clearing
overnight. Winds will diminish a bit and allow temps to cool,
with lows upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate another short wave trof moving across the
southern jet stream will lift northeast to the mid Atlantic
region Fri forming another area of low pres along the mid
Atlantic coast that will move north into the area with a similar
track as its predecessor. This will mean another round of rain
or showers will overspread the area late Fri through Fri night.
QPF amounts may be in the 1/2-1 inch range. The system will be a
fast mover and move into the maritimes by Sat with a dry slot
of air to arrive for Sat with a cyclonic flow aloft remaining.
The combination of some heating on Sat with the cyclonic flow
aloft may allow some scattered afternoon showers to develop. On
Sunday the cold trof aloft over the Great Lakes progresses east
and allows a cooler northwest flow to develop Sunday with more
instability showers expected due to steepening lapse rates with
any daytime surface heating. Winds may become gusty due to the
strong northwest winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Temps
will be cool through Sunday.

Early next week a progressive large upper ridge will build east
and become further amplified by Wed with a much warmer southwest
flow to develop with dry conditions. Bottom line is a major
warm up is looking like a reality beginning early next week and
continuing through at least mid week. With a broad west to
southwest flow expected Tue-Wed, guidance temps will likely be
forecast too low for days 6-7. For now stayed close to guidance
temps to match surrounding forecast areas.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Conds will drop to IFR or lower everywhere this
evening and stay there into early Thu. Some improvement to VFR
possible by afternoon at KCON/KMHT/KPSM/KPWM, with MVFR
lingering thru the afternoon elsewhere. VFR expected everywhere
Thu night.

Long Term...VFR early Fri with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR
late Fri into Sat in rain showers. VFR conditions return Sunday
with gusty NW winds in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA up for both winds and seas tonight, as SE winds
gust to 30 kts or so. Seas stay up Thu into Thu night, although
winds will shift to W and diminish, so will likely need to
convert SCA to haz seas versions during the day Thu, and extend
it thru at least Thu night.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain aoa 5 ft F
Fri into Sat so SCA`s for seas will likely be needed even
though winds will remain light for that time frame. On Sun winds
shift to westerly and continue into early next week and should
remain generally below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued snow melt to combine with about
an inch or so of rainfall to bring further rises to all rivers,
but especially the headwaters that drain eastward out of the
mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas most likely
to see minor flooding, and some locations are currently forecast
by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because of this, we have
issued a Flood Watch covering the most likely impacted areas,
including the upper Saco River as well as tributaries of the
Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled out on the upper
Pemigewasset River as well as along the Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251958
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
358 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the mid Atlantic coast will move north through
the area tonight and early Thursday with a good soaking rain.
This system will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing
clearing Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low
pressure will move into the region late Fri and Friday night.
Some instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon
and evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives
on Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Most of the precip with this even will fall through this evening
as decent slug of rain, currently congealing over SE MA, will
move NNE across areas along and just inland of the coast. This
is in response to tightening WAA at mid-lvls, which is also
developing a low level jet in the region. Models are in some
agreement that some places near the coast could see close to an
inch of rain or so between 22-06Z or so. So, the +RA wording was
put into the forecast for the evening. Could see some localized
areas of urban and poor drainage flooding, but overall not
anticipating anything significant. The surge of decent SE
upslope flow overnight, will also produce enhanced amounts in
these areas of the mtns, and this will drain into some rivers
and tributaries that are already running high due to snowmelt,
so, the flood watch will be held as it is. The rain will lighten
up some after midnight, but should continue thru most of the
night before it tapers off to showers anywhere but maybe srn NH.
Temps will fall off a little bit tonight, but lows will mostly
be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Could see another surge of steady rain move across ern zones Thu
morning, but other areas will be more showery, although clouds
and fog will linger through at least the first part of the
morning, until winds shift to the west. Should see showers end
around midday in srn NH and far SW ME, but clouds  will linger
through a good part of the day, with some breaks of sun late.
Most everywhere else will see a chance of showers thru the
afternoon, with mainly cloudy skies. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 50s in the mtns and eastern zones, where
clouds and rain will hang around longer, to 60-65 in SW ME and
srn NH, where it will be drier, with a greater chance of some
sun, and downslope W flow.

Should see showers ending early Thu evening everywhere with clearing
overnight. Winds will diminish a bit and allow temps to cool,
with lows upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate another short wave trof moving across the
southern jet stream will lift northeast to the mid Atlantic
region Fri forming another area of low pres along the mid
Atlantic coast that will move north into the area with a similar
track as its predecessor. This will mean another round of rain
or showers will overspread the area late Fri through Fri night.
QPF amounts may be in the 1/2-1 inch range. The system will be a
fast mover and move into the maritimes by Sat with a dry slot
of air to arrive for Sat with a cyclonic flow aloft remaining.
The combination of some heating on Sat with the cyclonic flow
aloft may allow some scattered afternoon showers to develop. On
Sunday the cold trof aloft over the Great Lakes progresses east
and allows a cooler northwest flow to develop Sunday with more
instability showers expected due to steepening lapse rates with
any daytime surface heating. Winds may become gusty due to the
strong northwest winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Temps
will be cool through Sunday.

Early next week a progressive large upper ridge will build east
and become further amplified by Wed with a much warmer southwest
flow to develop with dry conditions. Bottom line is a major
warm up is looking like a reality beginning early next week and
continuing through at least mid week. With a broad west to
southwest flow expected Tue-Wed, guidance temps will likely be
forecast too low for days 6-7. For now stayed close to guidance
temps to match surrounding forecast areas.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Conds will drop to IFR or lower everywhere this
evening and stay there into early Thu. Some improvement to VFR
possible by afternoon at KCON/KMHT/KPSM/KPWM, with MVFR
lingering thru the afternoon elsewhere. VFR expected everywhere
Thu night.

Long Term...VFR early Fri with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR
late Fri into Sat in rain showers. VFR conditions return Sunday
with gusty NW winds in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA up for both winds and seas tonight, as SE winds
gust to 30 kts or so. Seas stay up Thu into Thu night, although
winds will shift to W and diminish, so will likely need to
convert SCA to haz seas versions during the day Thu, and extend
it thru at least Thu night.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain aoa 5 ft F
Fri into Sat so SCA`s for seas will likely be needed even
though winds will remain light for that time frame. On Sun winds
shift to westerly and continue into early next week and should
remain generally below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued snow melt to combine with about
an inch or so of rainfall to bring further rises to all rivers,
but especially the headwaters that drain eastward out of the
mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas most likely
to see minor flooding, and some locations are currently forecast
by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because of this, we have
issued a Flood Watch covering the most likely impacted areas,
including the upper Saco River as well as tributaries of the
Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled out on the upper
Pemigewasset River as well as along the Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251956
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
356 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region tonight. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a period of showers Friday. A cool
down will occur Saturday night and Sunday, but this will be
short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures are in store for
the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

*** Locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms possible
during the evening commute ***

400 PM Update...

Surface low still remains across the DELMARVA late this afternoon as
upper level shortwave pushes towards the region from the north and
west. This current batch of precip is colocated with the nose of the
LLJ and high theta-e plume. This region also has strong omega in the
mid-levels and is associated with 3-4 STD above normal moisture
transport. Feel that along the I-95 corridor including the BOS to
PVD metro and points eastward will see the highest amount of QPF.
Especially as latest radar trends continue to redevelop precip in
this region over the past few hours. Overall a slow evening commute
looks to be in place for this evening.

Biggest impact will be widespread heavy rainfall with some gusty
winds and heavy rainfall. Nuisance and poor drainage urban flooding
looks to be the main issue with the ongoing precip. Cannot rule out
a flood adv across a portion of the region, and slight rises in some
of the area streams. Wind gusts across the area have already
increased across the south coast with WST gusting to 31 kts and FMH
around 23 kts. Expect the wind gusts to continue over the next few
hours across the south coast into the coastal plain which is where
the strong LLJ is located.

Lightning is still sparse across the region, but cannot rule it out
for late this afternoon into the evening.  Latest RAP guidance
continues to show MU Cape values increasing and showalters dropping
below 0. Best area is across RI and southeast MA, which could
increase QPF amounts to above 2 inches.

Bulk of the precip will be moving through with a dry slot starting
to push into from the south. This is noticed via the drop in the K
values across NJ. Despite the clearing that will come towards the
late afternoon, low level moisture is still quite saturated so
cannot rule out fog and drizzle potential.

Tonight...

Surface low still in the vicinity with digging upper level trough
approaching from the west. The evening will start off with a dry
weather trend as mid-level dry slot pushes through. Still quite
saturated as the low levels so fog and drizzle may be an issue. As
the upper level low rotates through, the mid and upper levels begin
to saturated and there could be a redevelopment in strong showers
moving through SNE. Best timing is between 3-9z as strong mid-level
omega pushes through. The east coast of MA has the best shot of
seeing the strong downpours. Still cannot rule out the thunder
potential as RAP data has several hundred julep of MUCape and
showalters dropping below 0C. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat
as well as gusty winds, especially along the passing cold front.

Ahead of the passage of the front, patchy dense fog is possible
across the region. This is due to the saturated low level moisture
as well as weak pressure gradient ahead of the FROPA. Both the HRRR-
TL and the NARRE indicated high probs that visibilities will drop
at or below a mile, with some potential for less than 1/4 mi.
Locations along Long Island are starting to drop below 1/2 mile, but
still see coastal above 1-2 miles. So confidence isn`t quite high to
issue a dense fog adv at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

Thursday...

Upper level low will begin to pivot out of the region during the day
on Thursday. Still some lingering moisture in the mid-levels with
steep lapse rates which will yield to sct showers in the morning.
Deep layer moisture will push northward towards Maine resulting in
low precip chances by the afternoon hours. Still expect sct to
broken clouds but overall trend will be dry by sunset.

Gusty WNW flow expected along as the mid level shortwave passes
through. Steep lapse rates and downsloping flow will result in good
mixing to near 850mb. Expect wind gusts to near 25-30 MPH by the
afternoon as highs reach into the mid to upper 60s. Overall a
pleasant Spring day.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* A period of showers Fri afternoon/evening
* Scattered showers Sat, mainly interior
* Dry and cooler Sun then seasonably mild Mon
* Dry with a significant warming trend Tue/Wed

Friday...

Southern stream shortwave will be lifting northward into SNE during
the afternoon/evening. Shortwave is deamplifying but modest low
level jet and PWAT plume will bring a period of showers to much of
SNE, especially afternoon into early evening. There may be a focus
for brief heavy showers and an isold t-storm across RI and SE MA
where some elevated instability is present along the nose of the low
level jet. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday...

Next mid level shortwave and cold front approaches from the west.
This will lead to an increasing risk of sct showers, mainly across
central/western MA and northern CT during the afternoon. Otherwise,
expect pt-mosunny skies in the coastal plain with increasing
afternoon clouds in western New Eng. There is a low risk a few
showers could move into eastern New Eng Sat night as the front moves
through. With pre-frontal SW flow, milder temps expected Sat,
reaching mid 60s to near 70, except cooler along the south coast.

Sunday...

Cooler post-frontal airmass as deep trough settles over the
northeast and 850 mb temps cool to around -4C. Temps will remain
mostly in the 50s, with a few locations topping out near 60 in RI
and eastern MA. Chilly night Sun night with lows in the 30s but
close to 30 across the typical colder locations.  Frost headlines
may be needed where growing season has started, with greatest risk
across northern CT.

Monday through Wednesday...

A pattern change will occur next week as deep trough lifts out Mon
and is replaced by building heights and mid level ridging through
the middle of the week. Monday will be the transition day with
seasonably mild temps after a cold start to the day. Then warming
mid level temps will result in temps reaching into the 70s Tue with
potential for some lower 80s Wed. But SW flow will result in cooler
temps along the south coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Before 00z...IFR this afternoon with LIFR conditions possible.
Bands of +RA developing across central and eastern areas this
afternoon. Isolated thunder late. Low risk for 35 kt gusts
across the south coastal terminals. Otherwise strong LLWS
through much of the day.

Tonight...IFR-LIFR conditions. -SHRA across the region
overnight. Still cannot rule out isolated TSRA through around
midnight, then moving offshore. Low CIGS and areas of fog will
linger across the terminals much of the night.

Thursday...Improving conditions to VFR with mix of MVFR north of
the Pike during the day. Gusty westerly winds between 20-30 kts
by the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Low risk for
TSRA from 21Z-04Z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Dense fog is
possible during the overnight.


Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Small Craft Advisories for all
waters except Boston Harbor. Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 30
kt. Low risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening across
the southeast waters. Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain
showers, heavy at times along with areas of fog and isolated
thunderstorms. Visibility locally below 1 nm at times across
the southern waters tonight.

Thursday...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to W, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25-30 kt
through midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the
day across the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>234-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Dunten
MARINE...KJC/Dunten
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251950
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
350 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the mid Atlantic coast will move north through
the area tonight and early Thursday with a good soaking rain.
This system will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing
clearing Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low
pressure will move into the region late Fri and Friday night.
Some instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon
and evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives
on Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Most of the precip with this even will fall through this evening
as decent slug of rain, currently congealing over SE MA, will
move NNE across areas along and just inland of the coast. This
is in response to tightening WAA at mid-lvls, which is also
developing a low level jet in the region. Models are in some
agreement that some places near the coast could see close to an
inch of rain or so between 22-06Z or so. So, the +RA wording was
put into the forecast for the evening. Could see some localized
areas of urban and poor drainage flooding, but overall not
anticipating anything significant. The surge of decent SE
upslope flow overnight, will also produce enhanced amounts in
these areas of the mtns, and this will drain into some rivers
and tributaries that are already running high due to snowmelt,
so, the flood watch will be held as it is. The rain will lighten
up some after midnight, but should continue thru most of the
night before it tapers off to showers anywhere but maybe srn NH.
Temps will fall off a little bit tonight, but lows will mostly
be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Could see another surge of steady rain move across ern zones Thu
morning, but other areas will be more showery, although clouds
and fog will linger through at least the first part of the
morning, until winds shift to the west. Should see showers end
around midday in srn NH and far SW ME, but clouds  will linger
through a good part of the day, with some breaks of sun late.
Most everywhere else will see a chance of showers thru the
afternoon, with mainly cloudy skies. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 50s in the mtns and eastern zones, where
clouds and rain will hang around longer, to 60-65 in SW ME and
srn NH, where it will be drier, with a greater chance of some
sun, and downslope W flow.

Should see showers ending early Thu evening everywhere with clearing
overnight. Winds will diminish a bit and allow temps to cool,
with lows upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate another short wave trof moving across the
southern jet stream will left northeast to the mid Atlantic
region Fri forming another area of low pres along the mid
Atlantic coast that will move north into the area with a similar
track as its predecessor. This will mean another round of rain
or showers will overspread the area late Fri through Fri night.
QPF amounts may be in the 1/2-1 inch range. The system will be
a fast mover and move into the maritimes by Sat with a dry slot
of air to arrive for Sat with a cyclonic flow aloft remaining.
The combination of some heating on Sat with the cyclonic flow
aloft may allow some scattered afternoon showers to develop. On
Sunday the cold trof aloft over the Great Lakes progresses east
and allows a cooler northwest flow to develop Sunday with more
instability showers expected due to steepening lapse rates with
any daytime surface heating. Winds may become gusty due to the
strong northwest winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Temps
will be cool through Sunday.

Early next week a progressive large upper ridge will build east
and become further amplified by Wed with a much warmer southwest
flow to develop with dry conditions. Bottom line is a major
warm up is looking like a reality beginning early next week and
continuing through at least mid week. With a broad west to
southwest flow expected Tue-Wed, guidance temps will likely be
forecast too low for days 6-7. For now stayed close to guidance
temps to match surrounding forecast areas.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Conds will drop to IFR or lower everywhere this
evening and stay there into early Thu. Some improvement to VFR
possible by afternoon at KCON/KMHT/KPSM/KPWM, with MVFR
lingering thru the afternoon elsewhere. VFR expected everywhere
Thu night.

Long Term...VFR early Fri with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR
late Fri into Sat in rain showers. VFR conditions return Sunday
with gusty NW winds in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA up for both winds and seas tonight, as SE winds
gust to 30 kts or so. Seas stay up Thu into Thu night, although
winds will shift to W and diminish, so will likely need to
convert SCA to haz seas versions during the day Thu, and extend
it thru at least Thu night.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain aoa 5 ft F
Fri into Sat so SCA`s for seas will likely be needed even
though winds will remain light for that time frame. On Sun winds
shift to westerly and continue into early next week and should
remain generally below SCA conditions.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued snow melt to combine with about
an inch or so of rainfall to bring further rises to all rivers,
but especially the headwaters that drain eastward out of the
mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas most likely
to see minor flooding, and some locations are currently forecast
by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because of this, we have
issued a Flood Watch covering the most likely impacted areas,
including the upper Saco River as well as tributaries of the
Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled out on the upper
Pemigewasset River as well as along the Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBOX 251842
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
242 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region today. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a brief period of rain showers
likely Friday. A cool down will occur Saturday night and Sunday,
but this will be short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures
appear to be in store for the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** Locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms possible
 this afternoon and evening ***

230 PM Update...

Surface low still remains south and west of the region early
this afternoon as upper level shortwave rides along the
approaching upper level trough. The first batch of precip
associated with the WAA has pushed well into NH and ME. This
secondary batch is colocated with the nose of the LLJ and high
theta-e plume. This region also has strong omega in the mid-
levels and is associated with 3-4 STD above normal moisture
transport. Feel that along the I-95 corridor including the BOS
to PVD metro and points eastward will see the highest amount of
QPF. This is a bit farther east then prev thought as well as
what the Hires ARW and NMM is suggesting. Regardless a slow
evening commute looks to be in place for this evening.

Biggest impact will be widespread heavy rainfall with some gusty
winds and heavy rainfall. Ponding on area roadways and nuisance
and poor drainage flooding may also be an issue. Wind gusts
area already increasing across the south coast with UUU gusting
to 31 kts and MVY around 27 kts. Expect locations across the
south coast into the coastal plain to see the higher gusts, as
they will have the best mixing with the LLJ near by.

Lightning is still sparse across the region, but cannot rule it
out. Especially with the MU Cape values increasing and
showalters dropping below 0. Best area is across RI and
southeast MA this afternoon. This could increase QPF amounts to
above 2 inches.

Bulk of the precip will be moving through with a dry slot
starting to push into from the south. This is noticed via the
drop in the K values across NJ. Despite the clearing that will
come towards the late afternoon, low level moisture is still
quite saturated so cannot rule out the drizzle potential.


Otherwise the focus turns towards dense fog this evening.
Temp/dewpoint spread will be quite low and with a saturated low
level moisture, sounding hint at the dense fog potential. This
is also noticed in the NARRE and HRRR. Not confident in issue an
adv at this time but will watch the latest trends over the next
few hours.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight and Thursday...

Low pressure will push across the region, heading to northern
New England by around 12Z-14Z Thursday. Will still see some
heavy rainfall across E Mass into E RI this evening, then will
push offshore by around midnight.

With a lot of low level moisture in place, along with SE winds
shifting to SW, will see low clouds and areas of fog lingering
through the night. The fog may reduce visibilities below 1/2
miles especially along S coastal areas. May see improving
conditions move into western areas around 09Z or so even with
lingering showers.

Drier air will start working across the region during Thursday.
A few showers may linger across N central and W Mass, mainly
across the E slopes of the Berkshires. Skies will become partly
to mostly sunny across most areas by midday or early afternoon
as winds shift to W. Temperatures should rebound to near normal
levels for late April.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* A 1-3 hour period of rain showers likely Fri

* Milder Sat with just a few brief afternoon/evening showers possible

* Dry and noticeably cooler Sun with frost potential late Sun night

* Dry weather Mon/Tue/Wed with a significant warming trend and the
  potential for 80+ in some locations by the middle of next week

Details...

Thursday night...

A ridge of high pressure will result in a dry/tranquil night.  Low
temperatures should bottom out in the upper 30s to the middle 40s in
most locales.

Friday...

Shortwave trough remains to our west and it will eject a piece of
energy into our region on southwest flow aloft.  Appears there will
be enough forcing for a 1 to 3 hour period of rain showers sometime
Friday into early Friday evening.  Certainly not looking at a lot of
rain...but appears the likelihood that most locations do see a
brief period of rain showers.  Clouds and the likelihood of a brief
period of wet weather should hold high temps mainly in the
lower 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

A milder day is on tap for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front.  Southwest flow and partial sunshine should allow high
temperatures to recover well into the 60s to possible around 70 in a
few locales.  While dry weather should dominate...an approaching
cold front may trigger a few brief showers during the
afternoon/evening.  Greatest risk will be across western MA...where
forcing/moisture will be a bit deeper.  Turns cooler Sat night
behind the cold front.  Low temps by daybreak Sun should be down
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

Deep trough sets up across the Northeast with anomalously low height
fields.  It will be noticeably cooler...but highs should still top
out well into the 50s with good mixing in northwest flow along with
the benefit of the increasing spring sun angle.  The dry airmass in
place will allow for chilly temps late Sun night into early Mon am.
Lows should bottom out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s in many
locations.  Frost headlines may eventually need to be considered
where the growing season has officially started.

Monday through Wednesday...

The northeast trough quickly moves east of the region Monday and
will be replaced by strong upper level ridging by the middle of next
week.  The result should be dry weather with a significant warmup.
High temps should recover into the lower to middle 60s
Mon...probably well into the 70s by Tue...and the potential for some
80 plus degree readings on Wed.  A weak pressure gradient will
likely allow for sea breezes and cooler conditions along the coast
at times.  Nonetheless...at least a taste of summer afternoon warmth
appears to be in the cards for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Before 00z...Conditions lowering to IFR this afternoon with LIFR
conditions possible. Bands of +RA developing across central and
eastern areas this afternoon. Isolated thunder late. Low risk
for 35 kt gusts across the south coastal terminals. Otherwise
strong LLWS through much of the day.

Tonight...IFR-LIFR conditions. -SHRA across the region
overnight. Still cannot rule out isolated TSRA through around
midnight, then moving offshore. Low CIGS and areas of fog will
linger across the terminals much of the night.

Thursday...Improving conditions to VFR with mix of MVFR north of
the Pike during the day. Gusty westerly winds between 20-30 kts
by the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Low risk for
TSRA from 21Z-04Z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR conditions in
rain and lower ceilings through the evening push. Dense fog is
possible during the overnight.


Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday and Friday night: A period of MVFR to localized IFR
conditions likely in a round of rain showers sometime Friday
into early Friday evening.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Today through Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor.
Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 30 kt. Low risk for a few 35
knot gusts early in the evening across the southeast waters.
Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers, heavy at times
along with areas of fog and isolated thunderstorms. Visibility
1 to 3 nm today, locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters tonight.

Thursday...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to SW, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25 kt
through midday. Rain showers and visibility improves by around
midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the day across
the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>234-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Dunten
MARINE...Frank/EVT
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251440
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1040 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north into the area today allowing rain to
overspread the area from the southwest in the morning and work
northeast by afternoon. A good soaking rain is expected for most
of the region. This system will slowly exit the region
Thursday. A cold front Saturday evening will allow cooler air to
push back into New England. A warming trend is expected early
next week however.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...Fine tuning pops a little bit into this afternoon
based on current trends, and meso models. The HRRR seems to hit
a on abit of a convective cluster moving across SE NH and the
ME coastal plain between 22Z and 04Z, so hit this period with
the mention of heavy rain. I left thunder out, but would not be
surprised for a few rumbles near the coast at this time as well.


645AM UPDATE...
Rain now moving into southwest New Hampshire. Have updated the
forecast to adjust the timing of rain arrival as well as adjust
morning temperatures.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
First batch of rain already trying to move into the area from
the southwest. Expect top-down moistening of the air mass as
this moves in, with likely some evaporational cooling into the
40s as rain begins. Rain becomes steadier and more widespread as
the day goes on and low pressure approaches from the southwest.
High temperatures today will not be that far from current
temperatures, except perhaps northeastern areas which could warm
up a bit this morning before rain arrives. Went below most
guidance on highs today, more in line with higher resolution
guidance due to the onshore flow from the cold Gulf of Maine as
well as evaporationally cooled low level inversion expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Axis  of steadier rain shifts east across the area tonight,
moving into eastern Maine on Thursday. With increasing moisture
levels and limited cooling we could see fog developing as well.
When it`s all said and done, most areas on the coastal plain and
into the eastern foothills will see about an inch of rainfall.
Worth noting that there is a fairly broad range in model
forecast rainfall amounts, with the NAM generally being dry
(maybe a half inch?) and the Canadian and GFS being the wettest
(1.5 inches?). Current forecast is a bit of a blend, with some
emphasis on terrain-enhanced areas as well as higher amounts
along the immediate coastline.

As steady precipitation moves east on Thursday, expect more
showers to develop under the cold core upper low moving in from
the west during the day Thursday. So although the steady rain
ends, more showery weather continues. With better mixing
expected on Thursday, temperatures make another run at 60, with
southern areas most likely to top this threshold while northern
areas stay cloudier and may not reach it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast looks progressive with a large cutoff low
centered near Nunavut offering continued chances for
precipitation this weekend and into next week. Several spokes of
energy cycle through the Northeastern CONUS the next several
days. Friday evening surface low pressure will develop over the
east coast and move northeast. Models are not in agreement with
the location of the dominant surface low, but a warm front
should arrive sometime Friday evening with a cold front
following for Saturday evening. This will produce widespread
rain showers across the region.

Friday and Saturday will be relatively warm with upper 50s to
mid 60s in southerly flow ahead of the system. Increasing clouds
and precipitation will cool things off with 850mb temperatures
dropping about 10 degrees by Sunday morning. Highs at the
surface will struggle into the mid 40s over the mountains and
foothills, with mid 50s elsewhere. This is not overly cool for
this time of year, but after warmer weather recently, it will
feel more than a couple degrees below normal.

A warming trend looks on tap for next week with modified high
pressure pushing up from the south and skirting fast moving flow
to our north. This looks like a good stretch of precipitation
free weather...except for the mountains which may see just
enough short wave energy to produce partly cloudy skies and
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Expect deteriorating conditions from southwest to
northeast today, with conditions becoming IFR by evening in
rain. Could stay MVFR on the other side of the mountains up in
Whitefield. There is the potential for fog to develop this
evening into tonight which would cause further reduction in
visibility, possibly as low as 1/4 mile. Conditions improve
fairly rapidly Thursday morning from west to east, with
scattered showers moving in from the west especially during the
afternoon.

Long Term...Prevailing VFR is expected Thursday night through
Friday morning, but conditions may deteriorate to MVFR or IFR at
times late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. Lingering
-SHRA/-SHSN are possible for KHIE and KLEB Saturday night into
Sunday with other sites VFR. Gusty NW winds are forecast for
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Increasing onshore southeast flow expected today
and tonight, likely topping out at about 30 KT. Prolonged
southeast fetch will also increase the wave heights to over 5
FT, and as high as 10 FT in the central Gulf of Maine waters
near Matinicus. Winds shift to the west and decrease on
Thursday, though it will take a little while for seas to
subside.

Long Term...Waves may increase in southerly flow Saturday. Winds
and seas also approach SCA conditions in west flow behind a
cold front Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is still a good amount of snow left especially in the
higher terrain. Warm temperatures yesterday brought rises to
many of the headwater gages. Expect continued snow melt to
combine with about an inch of rainfall to bring further rises to
all rivers, but especially the headwaters that drain eastward
out of the mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas
most likely to see minor flooding, and some locations are
currently forecast by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because
of this, we have issued a Flood Watch covering the most likely
impacted areas, including the upper Saco River as well as
tributaries of the Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled
out on the upper Pemigewasset River as well as along the
Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Hanes
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251414
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1014 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region today. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a brief period of rain showers
likely Friday. A cool down will occur Saturday night and Sunday,
but this will be short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures
appear to be in store for the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** Locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms possible
 this afternoon and evening ***

1030 AM Update...

WAA showers continue across the region this morning and will
advance northward. A lull or very light precip will occur over
the next few hours before the next batch of heavy rainfall south
of Long Island will move into the region. This heavy rainfall
will be associated with the nose of the LLJ and higher theta-e
plume and moisture advection.

Went ahead and adjusted the forecast to bring it more in line
with current conditions. But overall everything is on track for
today.


Previous Discussion...

Shortwave has increased the forcing for ascent and has allowed
light rain to overspread the region early this morning. Guidance
still indicates the heavy rain/isolated thunder threat this
afternoon and early evening...particularly across eastern MA/RI
which previous forecast captures nicely. No major changes to the
forecast needed.

Heavier bands of rain noted on radar across W NJ and just off
the Delmarva peninsula, heading N-NE. PWAT values of 1.2 to 1.3
inches will move across the region, which will produce bands of
heavy rainfall. Most model output, especially the high res ARW
and NMM guidance, all signaled locally heavy rain bands
developing by around 17Z-18Z mainly across E Mass into RI,
possibly as far W as Worcester county and NE CT. Could see some
heavier rain across N CT through midday, then pushing E during
the afternoon. The strong E-SE winds will also help feeding low
level moisture across the region.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
central and E Mass into RI and NE CT this afternoon and evening.
With the brief, heavy downpours, may see some street and poor
drainage flooding occurring. Will monitor this aspect very
closely. Noted that WPC has issued a marginal risk for local
flooding in any downpours. Will issue a Special Weather
Statement on this.

E-SE winds may briefly gust up to 30-35 kt especially across S
coastal Mass and RI this afternoon. Very strong low level jet,
on the order of 55-60 kt, passing across the region. However,
rather low lapse rates holds back the mixing from aloft. There
is a low risk for isolated thunderstorms in place with decent
instability in place. Noting LIs from zero to -1, K indices in
the lower 30s and TTs in the lower 50s. So, if any thunder does
occur, could see some gusty winds mix down in the convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight and Thursday...

Low pressure will push across the region, heading to northern
New England by around 12Z-14Z Thursday. Will still see some
heavy rainfall across E Mass into E RI this evening, then will
push offshore by around midnight.

With a lot of low level moisture in place, along with SE winds
shifting to SW, will see low clouds and areas of fog lingering
through the night. The fog may reduce visibilities below 1/2
miles especially along S coastal areas. May see improving
conditions move into western areas around 09Z or so even with
lingering showers.

Drier air will start working across the region during Thursday.
A few showers may linger across N central and W Mass, mainly
across the E slopes of the Berkshires. Skies will become partly
to mostly sunny across most areas by midday or early afternoon
as winds shift to W. Temperatures should rebound to near normal
levels for late April.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* A 1-3 hour period of rain showers likely Fri

* Milder Sat with just a few brief afternoon/evening showers possible

* Dry and noticeably cooler Sun with frost potential late Sun night

* Dry weather Mon/Tue/Wed with a significant warming trend and the
  potential for 80+ in some locations by the middle of next week

Details...

Thursday night...

A ridge of high pressure will result in a dry/tranquil night.  Low
temperatures should bottom out in the upper 30s to the middle 40s in
most locales.

Friday...

Shortwave trough remains to our west and it will eject a piece of
energy into our region on southwest flow aloft.  Appears there will
be enough forcing for a 1 to 3 hour period of rain showers sometime
Friday into early Friday evening.  Certainly not looking at a lot of
rain...but appears the likelihood that most locations do see a
brief period of rain showers.  Clouds and the likelihood of a brief
period of wet weather should hold high temps mainly in the
lower 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

A milder day is on tap for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front.  Southwest flow and partial sunshine should allow high
temperatures to recover well into the 60s to possible around 70 in a
few locales.  While dry weather should dominate...an approaching
cold front may trigger a few brief showers during the
afternoon/evening.  Greatest risk will be across western MA...where
forcing/moisture will be a bit deeper.  Turns cooler Sat night
behind the cold front.  Low temps by daybreak Sun should be down
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

Deep trough sets up across the Northeast with anomalously low height
fields.  It will be noticeably cooler...but highs should still top
out well into the 50s with good mixing in northwest flow along with
the benefit of the increasing spring sun angle.  The dry airmass in
place will allow for chilly temps late Sun night into early Mon am.
Lows should bottom out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s in many
locations.  Frost headlines may eventually need to be considered
where the growing season has officially started.

Monday through Wednesday...

The northeast trough quickly moves east of the region Monday and
will be replaced by strong upper level ridging by the middle of next
week.  The result should be dry weather with a significant warmup.
High temps should recover into the lower to middle 60s
Mon...probably well into the 70s by Tue...and the potential for some
80 plus degree readings on Wed.  A weak pressure gradient will
likely allow for sea breezes and cooler conditions along the coast
at times.  Nonetheless...at least a taste of summer afternoon warmth
appears to be in the cards for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...Conditions lowering to MVFR-IFR from SW-NE during the
morning. Rain will become steady with E-SE wind flow in place.
Areas of LIFR CIGS will push into NE CT/RI/SE Mass around
midday, and may reach further inland during the afternoon. Bands
of +RA developing across central and eastern areas this
afternoon. Isolated thunder late. Low risk for 35 kt gusts
across the south coastal terminals. Otherwise strong LLWS
through much of the day.

Tonight...IFR-LIFR conditions. Areas of +RA with heavy downpours
across E Mass/RI and isolated TSRA through around midnight, then
moving offshore. Low CIGS and areas of fog will linger across
the coastal plain much of the night.

Thursday...IFR CIGS/VSBYS early, then should improve to VFR
from SW-NE as winds shift to SW and diminish. May see gusts up
to 25 kt through midday. Rain showers end, though may linger
across N central and W Mass through the day.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Conditions should lower
to MVFR by late morning in rain and lower ceilings. Occasional
+RA and IFR conditions by the afternoon/evening push and E-SE
wind will keep CIGS through tonight. Low risk for TSRA from 21Z-
04Z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. MVFR conditions lower to
IFR by late morning with some +RA at midday. IFR- LIFR
conditions from mid morning through tonight, and may linger into
the early portion of the Thursday morning push.


Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday and Friday night: A period of MVFR to localized IFR
conditions likely in a round of rain showers sometime Friday
into early Friday evening.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Today through Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor.
Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 30 kt. Low risk for a few 35
knot gusts early in the evening across the southeast waters.
Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers, heavy at times
along with areas of fog and isolated thunderstorms. Visibility
1 to 3 nm today, locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters tonight.

Thursday...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to SW, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25 kt
through midday. Rain showers and visibility improves by around
midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the day across
the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ233-234-
     250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/Dunten
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251108
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
708 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region today. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a brief period of rain showers
likely Friday. A cool down will occur Saturday night and Sunday,
but this will be short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures
appear to be in store for the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** Locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms possible
 this afternoon and evening ***

705 am update...

Shortwave has increased the forcing for ascent and has allowed
light rain to overspread the region early this morning. Guidance
still indicates the heavy rain/isolated thunder threat this
afternoon and early evening...particularly across eastern MA/RI
which previous forecast captures nicely. No major changes to the
forecast needed.

Heavier bands of rain noted on radar across W NJ and just off
the Delmarva peninsula, heading N-NE. PWAT values of 1.2 to 1.3
inches will move across the region, which will produce bands of
heavy rainfall. Most model output, especially the high res ARW
and NMM guidance, all signaled locally heavy rain bands
developing by around 17Z-18Z mainly across E Mass into RI,
possibly as far W as Worcester county and NE CT. Could see some
heavier rain across N CT through midday, then pushing E during
the afternoon. The strong E-SE winds will also help feeding low
level moisture across the region.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
central and E Mass into RI and NE CT this afternoon and evening.
With the brief, heavy downpours, may see some street and poor
drainage flooding occurring. Will monitor this aspect very
closely. Noted that WPC has issued a marginal risk for local
flooding in any downpours. Will issue a Special Weather
Statement on this.

E-SE winds may briefly gust up to 30-35 kt especially across S
coastal Mass and RI this afternoon. Very strong low level jet,
on the order of 55-60 kt, passing across the region. However,
rather low lapse rates holds back the mixing from aloft. There
is a low risk for isolated thunderstorms in place with decent
instability in place. Noting LIs from zero to -1, K indices in
the lower 30s and TTs in the lower 50s. So, if any thunder does
occur, could see some gusty winds mix down in the convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight and Thursday...

Low pressure will push across the region, heading to northern
New England by around 12Z-14Z Thursday. Will still see some
heavy rainfall across E Mass into E RI this evening, then will
push offshore by around midnight.

With a lot of low level moisture in place, along with SE winds
shifting to SW, will see low clouds and areas of fog lingering
through the night. The fog may reduce visibilities below 1/2
miles especially along S coastal areas. May see improving
conditions move into western areas around 09Z or so even with
lingering showers.

Drier air will start working across the region during Thursday.
A few showers may linger across N central and W Mass, mainly
across the E slopes of the Berkshires. Skies will become partly
to mostly sunny across most areas by midday or early afternoon
as winds shift to W. Temperatures should rebound to near normal
levels for late April.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights...

* A 1-3 hour period of rain showers likely Fri

* Milder Sat with just a few brief afternoon/evening showers possible

* Dry and noticeably cooler Sun with frost potential late Sun night

* Dry weather Mon/Tue/Wed with a significant warming trend and the
  potential for 80+ in some locations by the middle of next week

Details...

Thursday night...

A ridge of high pressure will result in a dry/tranquil night.  Low
temperatures should bottom out in the upper 30s to the middle 40s in
most locales.

Friday...

Shortwave trough remains to our west and it will eject a piece of
energy into our region on southwest flow aloft.  Appears there will
be enough forcing for a 1 to 3 hour period of rain showers sometime
Friday into early Friday evening.  Certainly not looking at a lot of
rain...but appears the likelihood that most locations do see a
brief period of rain showers.  Clouds and the likelihood of a brief
period of wet weather should hold high temps mainly in the
lower 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

A milder day is on tap for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front.  Southwest flow and partial sunshine should allow high
temperatures to recover well into the 60s to possible around 70 in a
few locales.  While dry weather should dominate...an approaching
cold front may trigger a few brief showers during the
afternoon/evening.  Greatest risk will be across western MA...where
forcing/moisture will be a bit deeper.  Turns cooler Sat night
behind the cold front.  Low temps by daybreak Sun should be down
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

Deep trough sets up across the Northeast with anomalously low height
fields.  It will be noticeably cooler...but highs should still top
out well into the 50s with good mixing in northwest flow along with
the benefit of the increasing spring sun angle.  The dry airmass in
place will allow for chilly temps late Sun night into early Mon am.
Lows should bottom out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s in many
locations.  Frost headlines may eventually need to be considered
where the growing season has officially started.

Monday through Wednesday...

The northeast trough quickly moves east of the region Monday and
will be replaced by strong upper level ridging by the middle of next
week.  The result should be dry weather with a significant warmup.
High temps should recover into the lower to middle 60s
Mon...probably well into the 70s by Tue...and the potential for some
80 plus degree readings on Wed.  A weak pressure gradient will
likely allow for sea breezes and cooler conditions along the coast
at times.  Nonetheless...at least a taste of summer afternoon warmth
appears to be in the cards for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...Conditions lowering to MVFR-IFR from SW-NE during the
morning. Rain will become steady with E-SE wind flow in place.
Areas of LIFR CIGS will push into NE CT/RI/SE Mass around
midday, and may reach further inland during the afternoon. Bands
of +RA developing across central and eastern areas this
afternoon. Isolated thunder late. Low risk for 35 kt gusts
across the south coastal terminals. Otherwise strong LLWS
through much of the day.

Tonight...IFR-LIFR conditions. Areas of +RA with heavy downpours
across E Mass/RI and isolated TSRA through around midnight, then
moving offshore. Low CIGS and areas of fog will linger across
the coastal plain much of the night.

Thursday...IFR CIGS/VSBYS early, then should improve to VFR
from SW-NE as winds shift to SW and diminish. May see gusts up
to 25 kt through midday. Rain showers end, though may linger
across N central and W Mass through the day.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Conditions should lower
to MVFR by late morning in rain and lower ceilings. Occasional
+RA and IFR conditions by the afternoon/evening push and E-SE
wind will keep CIGS through tonight. Low risk for TSRA from 21Z-
04Z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. MVFR conditions lower to
IFR by late morning with some +RA at midday. IFR- LIFR
conditions from mid morning through tonight, and may linger into
the early portion of the Thursday morning push.


Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday and Friday night: A period of MVFR to localized IFR
conditions likely in a round of rain showers sometime Friday
into early Friday evening.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Today through Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor.
Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 30 kt. Low risk for a few 35
knot gusts early in the evening across the southeast waters.
Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers, heavy at times
along with areas of fog and isolated thunderstorms. Visibility
1 to 3 nm today, locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters tonight.

Thursday...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to SW, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25 kt
through midday. Rain showers and visibility improves by around
midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the day across
the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ233-234-250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251108
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
708 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region today. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a brief period of rain showers
likely Friday. A cool down will occur Saturday night and Sunday,
but this will be short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures
appear to be in store for the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** Locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms possible
 this afternoon and evening ***

705 am update...

Shortwave has increased the forcing for ascent and has allowed
light rain to overspread the region early this morning. Guidance
still indicates the heavy rain/isolated thunder threat this
afternoon and early evening...particularly across eastern MA/RI
which previous forecast captures nicely. No major changes to the
forecast needed.

Heavier bands of rain noted on radar across W NJ and just off
the Delmarva peninsula, heading N-NE. PWAT values of 1.2 to 1.3
inches will move across the region, which will produce bands of
heavy rainfall. Most model output, especially the high res ARW
and NMM guidance, all signaled locally heavy rain bands
developing by around 17Z-18Z mainly across E Mass into RI,
possibly as far W as Worcester county and NE CT. Could see some
heavier rain across N CT through midday, then pushing E during
the afternoon. The strong E-SE winds will also help feeding low
level moisture across the region.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
central and E Mass into RI and NE CT this afternoon and evening.
With the brief, heavy downpours, may see some street and poor
drainage flooding occurring. Will monitor this aspect very
closely. Noted that WPC has issued a marginal risk for local
flooding in any downpours. Will issue a Special Weather
Statement on this.

E-SE winds may briefly gust up to 30-35 kt especially across S
coastal Mass and RI this afternoon. Very strong low level jet,
on the order of 55-60 kt, passing across the region. However,
rather low lapse rates holds back the mixing from aloft. There
is a low risk for isolated thunderstorms in place with decent
instability in place. Noting LIs from zero to -1, K indices in
the lower 30s and TTs in the lower 50s. So, if any thunder does
occur, could see some gusty winds mix down in the convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight and Thursday...

Low pressure will push across the region, heading to northern
New England by around 12Z-14Z Thursday. Will still see some
heavy rainfall across E Mass into E RI this evening, then will
push offshore by around midnight.

With a lot of low level moisture in place, along with SE winds
shifting to SW, will see low clouds and areas of fog lingering
through the night. The fog may reduce visibilities below 1/2
miles especially along S coastal areas. May see improving
conditions move into western areas around 09Z or so even with
lingering showers.

Drier air will start working across the region during Thursday.
A few showers may linger across N central and W Mass, mainly
across the E slopes of the Berkshires. Skies will become partly
to mostly sunny across most areas by midday or early afternoon
as winds shift to W. Temperatures should rebound to near normal
levels for late April.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights...

* A 1-3 hour period of rain showers likely Fri

* Milder Sat with just a few brief afternoon/evening showers possible

* Dry and noticeably cooler Sun with frost potential late Sun night

* Dry weather Mon/Tue/Wed with a significant warming trend and the
  potential for 80+ in some locations by the middle of next week

Details...

Thursday night...

A ridge of high pressure will result in a dry/tranquil night.  Low
temperatures should bottom out in the upper 30s to the middle 40s in
most locales.

Friday...

Shortwave trough remains to our west and it will eject a piece of
energy into our region on southwest flow aloft.  Appears there will
be enough forcing for a 1 to 3 hour period of rain showers sometime
Friday into early Friday evening.  Certainly not looking at a lot of
rain...but appears the likelihood that most locations do see a
brief period of rain showers.  Clouds and the likelihood of a brief
period of wet weather should hold high temps mainly in the
lower 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

A milder day is on tap for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front.  Southwest flow and partial sunshine should allow high
temperatures to recover well into the 60s to possible around 70 in a
few locales.  While dry weather should dominate...an approaching
cold front may trigger a few brief showers during the
afternoon/evening.  Greatest risk will be across western MA...where
forcing/moisture will be a bit deeper.  Turns cooler Sat night
behind the cold front.  Low temps by daybreak Sun should be down
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

Deep trough sets up across the Northeast with anomalously low height
fields.  It will be noticeably cooler...but highs should still top
out well into the 50s with good mixing in northwest flow along with
the benefit of the increasing spring sun angle.  The dry airmass in
place will allow for chilly temps late Sun night into early Mon am.
Lows should bottom out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s in many
locations.  Frost headlines may eventually need to be considered
where the growing season has officially started.

Monday through Wednesday...

The northeast trough quickly moves east of the region Monday and
will be replaced by strong upper level ridging by the middle of next
week.  The result should be dry weather with a significant warmup.
High temps should recover into the lower to middle 60s
Mon...probably well into the 70s by Tue...and the potential for some
80 plus degree readings on Wed.  A weak pressure gradient will
likely allow for sea breezes and cooler conditions along the coast
at times.  Nonetheless...at least a taste of summer afternoon warmth
appears to be in the cards for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...Conditions lowering to MVFR-IFR from SW-NE during the
morning. Rain will become steady with E-SE wind flow in place.
Areas of LIFR CIGS will push into NE CT/RI/SE Mass around
midday, and may reach further inland during the afternoon. Bands
of +RA developing across central and eastern areas this
afternoon. Isolated thunder late. Low risk for 35 kt gusts
across the south coastal terminals. Otherwise strong LLWS
through much of the day.

Tonight...IFR-LIFR conditions. Areas of +RA with heavy downpours
across E Mass/RI and isolated TSRA through around midnight, then
moving offshore. Low CIGS and areas of fog will linger across
the coastal plain much of the night.

Thursday...IFR CIGS/VSBYS early, then should improve to VFR
from SW-NE as winds shift to SW and diminish. May see gusts up
to 25 kt through midday. Rain showers end, though may linger
across N central and W Mass through the day.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Conditions should lower
to MVFR by late morning in rain and lower ceilings. Occasional
+RA and IFR conditions by the afternoon/evening push and E-SE
wind will keep CIGS through tonight. Low risk for TSRA from 21Z-
04Z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. MVFR conditions lower to
IFR by late morning with some +RA at midday. IFR- LIFR
conditions from mid morning through tonight, and may linger into
the early portion of the Thursday morning push.


Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday and Friday night: A period of MVFR to localized IFR
conditions likely in a round of rain showers sometime Friday
into early Friday evening.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Today through Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor.
Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 30 kt. Low risk for a few 35
knot gusts early in the evening across the southeast waters.
Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers, heavy at times
along with areas of fog and isolated thunderstorms. Visibility
1 to 3 nm today, locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters tonight.

Thursday...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to SW, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25 kt
through midday. Rain showers and visibility improves by around
midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the day across
the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ233-234-250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251043
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
643 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north into the area today allowing rain to
overspread the area from the southwest in the morning and work
northeast by afternoon. A good soaking rain is expected for most
of the region. This system will slowly exit the region
Thursday. A cold front Saturday evening will allow cooler air to
push back into New England. A warming trend is expected early
next week however.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
Rain now moving into southwest New Hampshire. Have updated the
forecast to adjust the timing of rain arrival as well as adjust
morning temperatures.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
First batch of rain already trying to move into the area from
the southwest. Expect top-down moistening of the air mass as
this moves in, with likely some evaporational cooling into the
40s as rain begins. Rain becomes steadier and more widespread as
the day goes on and low pressure approaches from the southwest.
High temperatures today will not be that far from current
temperatures, except perhaps northeastern areas which could warm
up a bit this morning before rain arrives. Went below most
guidance on highs today, more in line with higher resolution
guidance due to the onshore flow from the cold Gulf of Maine as
well as evaporationally-cooled low level inversion expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
Axis of steadier rain shifts east across the area tonight,
moving into eastern Maine on Thursday. With increasing moisture
levels and limited cooling we could see fog developing as well.
When it`s all said and done, most areas on the coastal plain and
into the eastern foothills will see about an inch of rainfall.
Worth noting that there is a fairly broad range in model
forecast rainfall amounts, with the NAM generally being dry
(maybe a half inch?) and the Canadian and GFS being the wettest
(1.5 inches?). Current forecast is a bit of a blend, with some
emphasis on terrain-enhanced areas as well as higher amounts
along the immediate coastline.

As steady precipitation moves east on Thursday, expect more
showers to develop under the cold core upper low moving in from
the west during the day Thursday. So although the steady rain
ends, more showery weather continues. With better mixing
expected on Thursday, temperatures make another run at 60, with
southern areas most likely to top this threshold while northern
areas stay cloudier and may not reach it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast looks progressive with a large cutoff low
centered near Nunavut offering continued chances for
precipitation this weekend and into next week. Several spokes of
energy cycle through the Northeastern CONUS the next several
days. Friday evening surface low pressure will develop over the
east coast and move northeast. Models are not in agreement with
the location of the dominant surface low, but a warm front
should arrive sometime Friday evening with a cold front
following for Saturday evening. This will produce widespread
rain showers across the region.

Friday and Saturday will be relatively warm with upper 50s to
mid 60s in southerly flow ahead of the system. Increasing clouds
and precipitation will cool things off with 850mb temperatures
dropping about 10 degrees by Sunday morning. Highs at the
surface will struggle into the mid 40s over the mountains and
foothills, with mid 50s elsewhere. This is not overly cool for
this time of year, but after warmer weather recently, it will
feel more than a couple degrees below normal.

A warming trend looks on tap for next week with modified high
pressure pushing up from the south and skirting fast moving flow
to our north. This looks like a good stretch of precipitation
free weather...except for the mountains which may see just
enough short wave energy to produce partly cloudy skies and
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Expect deteriorating conditions from southwest to
northeast today, with conditions becoming IFR by evening in
rain. Could stay MVFR on the other side of the mountains up in
Whitefield. There is the potential for fog to develop this
evening into tonight which would cause further reduction in
visibility, possibly as low as 1/4 mile. Conditions improve
fairly rapidly Thursday morning from west to east, with
scattered showers moving in from the west especially during the
afternoon.

Long Term...Prevailing VFR is expected Thursday night through
Friday morning, but conditions may deteriorate to MVFR or IFR at
times late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. Lingering
-SHRA/-SHSN are possible for KHIE and KLEB Saturday night into
Sunday with other sites VFR. Gusty NW winds are forecast for
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Increasing onshore southeast flow expected today
and tonight, likely topping out at about 30 KT. Prolonged
southeast fetch will also increase the wave heights to over 5
FT, and as high as 10 FT in the central Gulf of Maine waters
near Matinicus. Winds shift to the west and decrease on
Thursday, though it will take a little while for seas to
subside.

Long Term...Waves may increase in southerly flow Saturday. Winds
and seas also approach SCA conditions in west flow behind a
cold front Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is still a good amount of snow left especially in the
higher terrain. Warm temperatures yesterday brought rises to
many of the headwater gages. Expect continued snow melt to
combine with about an inch of rainfall to bring further rises to
all rivers, but especially the headwaters that drain eastward
out of the mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas
most likely to see minor flooding, and some locations are
currently forecast by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because
of this, we have issued a Flood Watch covering the most likely
impacted areas, including the upper Saco River as well as
tributaries of the Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled
out on the upper Pemigewasset River as well as along the
Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
     MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Hanes




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250908
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
508 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will push northeast from the mid Atlantic coast,
crossing the region today. This will bring locally heavy
downpours may result in some brief poor drainage street flooding
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Seasonably mild
temperatures will follow for the remainder of the week with
mainly dry weather other than a brief period of rain showers
likely Friday. A cool down will occur Saturday night and Sunday,
but this will be short lived as unseasonably warm temperatures
appear to be in store for the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** Locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms possible
 this afternoon and evening ***

Band of rainfall moving in across SW RI into CT and W Mass as
seen on NE regional 88D radar imagery at 08Z. Light rain
reported from KAQW-KIJD-KGON, with both legacy and dual pol
precip products reporting less than 0.1 inches. 08Z METARs
reporting T amounts in SW Mass and N CT, and up to 0.05 inches
at KPSF and 0.03 inches at KAQW.

Heavier bands of rain noted on radar across W NJ and just off
the Delmarva peninsula, heading N-NE. PWAT values of 1.2 to 1.3
inches will move across the region, which will produce bands of
heavy rainfall. Most model output, especially the high res ARW
and NMM guidance, all signaled locally heavy rain bands
developing by around 17Z-18Z mainly across E Mass into RI,
possibly as far W as Worcester county and NE CT. Could see some
heavier rain across N CT through midday, then pushing E during
the afternoon. The strong E-SE winds will also help feeding low
level moisture across the region.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
central and E Mass into RI and NE CT this afternoon and evening.
With the brief, heavy downpours, may see some street and poor
drainage flooding occurring. Will monitor this aspect very
closely. Noted that WPC has issued a marginal risk for local
flooding in any downpours. Will issue a Special Weather
Statement on this.

E-SE winds may briefly gust up to 30-35 kt especially across S
coastal Mass and RI this afternoon. Very strong low level jet,
on the order of 55-60 kt, passing across the region. However,
rather low lapse rates holds back the mixing from aloft. There
is a low risk for isolated thunderstorms in place with decent
instability in place. Noting LIs from zero to -1, K indices in
the lower 30s and TTs in the lower 50s. So, if any thunder does
occur, could see some gusty winds mix down in the convection.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

Tonight and Thursday...

Low pressure will push across the region, heading to northern
New England by around 12Z-14Z Thursday. Will still see some
heavy rainfall across E Mass into E RI this evening, then will
push offshore by around midnight.

With a lot of low level moisture in place, along with SE winds
shifting to SW, will see low clouds and areas of fog lingering
through the night. The fog may reduce visibilities below 1/2
miles especially along S coastal areas. May see improving
conditions move into western areas around 09Z or so even with
lingering showers.

Drier air will start working across the region during Thursday.
A few showers may linger across N central and W Mass, mainly
across the E slopes of the Berkshires. Skies will become partly
to mostly sunny across most areas by midday or early afternoon
as winds shift to W. Temperatures should rebound to near normal
levels for late April.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* A 1-3 hour period of rain showers likely Fri

* Milder Sat with just a few brief afternoon/evening showers possible

* Dry and noticeably cooler Sun with frost potential late Sun night

* Dry weather Mon/Tue/Wed with a significant warming trend and the
  potential for 80+ in some locations by the middle of next week

Details...

Thursday night...

A ridge of high pressure will result in a dry/tranquil night.  Low
temperatures should bottom out in the upper 30s to the middle 40s in
most locales.

Friday...

Shortwave trough remains to our west and it will eject a piece of
energy into our region on southwest flow aloft.  Appears there will
be enough forcing for a 1 to 3 hour period of rain showers sometime
Friday into early Friday evening.  Certainly not looking at a lot of
rain...but appears the likelihood that most locations do see a
brief period of rain showers.  Clouds and the likelihood of a brief
period of wet weather should hold high temps mainly in the
lower 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

A milder day is on tap for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front.  Southwest flow and partial sunshine should allow high
temperatures to recover well into the 60s to possible around 70 in a
few locales.  While dry weather should dominate...an approaching
cold front may trigger a few brief showers during the
afternoon/evening.  Greatest risk will be across western MA...where
forcing/moisture will be a bit deeper.  Turns cooler Sat night
behind the cold front.  Low temps by daybreak Sun should be down
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

Deep trough sets up across the Northeast with anomalously low height
fields.  It will be noticeably cooler...but highs should still top
out well into the 50s with good mixing in northwest flow along with
the benefit of the increasing spring sun angle.  The dry airmass in
place will allow for chilly temps late Sun night into early Mon am.
Lows should bottom out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s in many
locations.  Frost headlines may eventually need to be considered
where the growing season has officially started.

Monday through Wednesday...

The northeast trough quickly moves east of the region Monday and
will be replaced by strong upper level ridging by the middle of next
week.  The result should be dry weather with a significant warmup.
High temps should recover into the lower to middle 60s
Mon...probably well into the 70s by Tue...and the potential for some
80 plus degree readings on Wed.  A weak pressure gradient will
likely allow for sea breezes and cooler conditions along the coast
at times.  Nonetheless...at least a taste of summer afternoon warmth
appears to be in the cards for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Through 12Z...Mainly VFR conditions, with some MVFR CIGS moving
into N CT and S RI by 11Z-12Z, along with patchy -RA.

Today...Conditions lowering to MVFR-IFR from SW-NE during the
morning. Rain will become steady with E-SE wind flow in place.
Areas of LIFR CIGS will push into NE CT/RI/SE Mass around
midday, and may reach further inland during the afternoon. Bands
of +RA developing across central and eastern areas this
afternoon. Isolated thunder late. Low risk for 35 kt gusts
across the south coastal terminals. Otherwise strong LLWS
through much of the day.

Tonight...IFR-LIFR conditions. Areas of +RA with heavy downpours
across E Mass/RI and isolated TSRA through around midnight, then
moving offshore. Low CIGS and areas of fog will linger across
the coastal plain much of the night.

Thursday...IFR CIGS/VSBYS early, then should improve to VFR
from SW-NE as winds shift to SW and diminish. May see gusts up
to 25 kt through midday. Rain showers end, though may linger
across N central and W Mass through the day.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Should remain VFR for
most of the morning push, then MVFR CIGS and -RA/RA should move
in by mid to late morning. Occasional +RA and IFR conditions by
the afternoon/evening push and E-SE wind will keep CIGS through
tonight. Low risk for TSRA from 21Z-04Z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Morning push could be
impacted with brief +RA. IFR-LIFR conditions from mid morning
through tonight, and may linger into the early portion of the
Thursday morning push.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday and Friday night: A period of MVFR to localized IFR
conditions likely in a round of rain showers sometime Friday
into early Friday evening.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Today through Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Boston Harbor.
Expect E-SE winds gusting up to 30 kt. Low risk for a few 35
knot gusts early in the evening across the southeast waters.
Rough seas up to 10 to 12 ft. Rain showers, heavy at times
along with areas of fog and isolated thunderstorms. Visibility
1 to 3 nm today, locally below 1 nm at times across the southern
waters tonight.

Thursday...Moderate to high confidence.
Small craft conditions continue as winds shift to SW, though
winds diminish during the day. May see gusts up to 25 kt
through midday. Rain showers and visibility improves by around
midday. Seas remain at 5 feet or greater through the day across
the open waters as well as the south bays and sounds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ233-234-250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
     254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250800
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north into the area today allowing rain to
overspread the area from the southwest in the morning and work
northeast by afternoon. A good soaking rain is expected for most
of the region. This system will slowly exit the region
Thursday. A cold front Saturday evening will allow cooler air to
push back into New England. A warming trend is expected early
next week however.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
First batch of rain already trying to move into the area from
the southwest. Expect top-down moistening of the air mass as
this moves in, with likely some evaporational cooling into the
40s as rain begins. Rain becomes steadier and more widespread as
the day goes on and low pressure approaches from the southwest.
High temperatures today will not be that far from current
temperatures, except perhaps northeastern areas which could warm
up a bit this morning before rain arrives. Went below most
guidance on highs today, more in line with higher resolution
guidance due to the onshore flow from the cold Gulf of Maine as
well as evaporationally-cooled low level inversion expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
Axis of steadier rain shifts east across the area tonight,
moving into eastern Maine on Thursday. With increasing moisture
levels and limited cooling we could see fog developing as well.
When it`s all said and done, most areas on the coastal plain and
into the eastern foothills will see about an inch of rainfall.
Worth noting that there is a fairly broad range in model
forecast rainfall amounts, with the NAM generally being dry
(maybe a half inch?) and the Canadian and GFS being the wettest
(1.5 inches?). Current forecast is a bit of a blend, with some
emphasis on terrain-enhanced areas as well as higher amounts
along the immediate coastline.

As steady precipitation moves east on Thursday, expect more
showers to develop under the cold core upper low moving in from
the west during the day Thursday. So although the steady rain
ends, more showery weather continues. With better mixing
expected on Thursday, temperatures make another run at 60, with
southern areas most likely to top this threshold while northern
areas stay cloudier and may not reach it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast looks progressive with a large cutoff low
centered near Nunavut offering continued chances for
precipitation this weekend and into next week. Several spokes of
energy cycle through the Northeastern CONUS the next several
days. Friday evening surface low pressure will develop over the
east coast and move northeast. Models are not in agreement with
the location of the dominant surface low, but a warm front
should arrive sometime Friday evening with a cold front
following for Saturday evening. This will produce widespread
rain showers across the region.

Friday and Saturday will be relatively warm with upper 50s to
mid 60s in southerly flow ahead of the system. Increasing clouds
and precipitation will cool things off with 850mb temperatures
dropping about 10 degrees by Sunday morning. Highs at the
surface will struggle into the mid 40s over the mountains and
foothills, with mid 50s elsewhere. This is not overly cool for
this time of year, but after warmer weather recently, it will
feel more than a couple degrees below normal.

A warming trend looks on tap for next week with modified high
pressure pushing up from the south and skirting fast moving flow
to our north. This looks like a good stretch of precipitation
free weather...except for the mountains which may see just
enough short wave energy to produce partly cloudy skies and
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Expect deteriorating conditions from southwest to
northeast today, with conditions becoming IFR by evening in
rain. Could stay MVFR on the other side of the mountains up in
Whitefield. There is the potential for fog to develop this
evening into tonight which would cause further reduction in
visibility, possibly as low as 1/4 mile. Conditions improve
fairly rapidly Thursday morning from west to east, with
scattered showers moving in from the west especially during the
afternoon.

Long Term...Prevailing VFR is expected Thursday night through
Friday morning, but conditions may deteriorate to MVFR or IFR at
times late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. Lingering
-SHRA/-SHSN are possible for KHIE and KLEB Saturday night into
Sunday with other sites VFR. Gusty NW winds are forecast for
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Increasing onshore southeast flow expected today
and tonight, likely topping out at about 30 KT. Prolonged
southeast fetch will also increase the wave heights to over 5
FT, and as high as 10 FT in the central Gulf of Maine waters
near Matinicus. Winds shift to the west and decrease on
Thursday, though it will take a little while for seas to
subside.

Long Term...Waves may increase in southerly flow Saturday. Winds
and seas also approach SCA conditions in west flow behind a
cold front Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is still a good amount of snow left especially in the
higher terrain. Warm temperatures yesterday brought rises to
many of the headwater gages. Expect continued snow melt to
combine with about an inch of rainfall to bring further rises to
all rivers, but especially the headwaters that drain eastward
out of the mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas
most likely to see minor flooding, and some locations are
currently forecast by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because
of this, we have issued a Flood Watch covering the most likely
impacted areas, including the upper Saco River as well as
tributaries of the Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled
out on the upper Pemigewasset River as well as along the
Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
     MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Hanes




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250800
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north into the area today allowing rain to
overspread the area from the southwest in the morning and work
northeast by afternoon. A good soaking rain is expected for most
of the region. This system will slowly exit the region
Thursday. A cold front Saturday evening will allow cooler air to
push back into New England. A warming trend is expected early
next week however.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
First batch of rain already trying to move into the area from
the southwest. Expect top-down moistening of the air mass as
this moves in, with likely some evaporational cooling into the
40s as rain begins. Rain becomes steadier and more widespread as
the day goes on and low pressure approaches from the southwest.
High temperatures today will not be that far from current
temperatures, except perhaps northeastern areas which could warm
up a bit this morning before rain arrives. Went below most
guidance on highs today, more in line with higher resolution
guidance due to the onshore flow from the cold Gulf of Maine as
well as evaporationally-cooled low level inversion expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
Axis of steadier rain shifts east across the area tonight,
moving into eastern Maine on Thursday. With increasing moisture
levels and limited cooling we could see fog developing as well.
When it`s all said and done, most areas on the coastal plain and
into the eastern foothills will see about an inch of rainfall.
Worth noting that there is a fairly broad range in model
forecast rainfall amounts, with the NAM generally being dry
(maybe a half inch?) and the Canadian and GFS being the wettest
(1.5 inches?). Current forecast is a bit of a blend, with some
emphasis on terrain-enhanced areas as well as higher amounts
along the immediate coastline.

As steady precipitation moves east on Thursday, expect more
showers to develop under the cold core upper low moving in from
the west during the day Thursday. So although the steady rain
ends, more showery weather continues. With better mixing
expected on Thursday, temperatures make another run at 60, with
southern areas most likely to top this threshold while northern
areas stay cloudier and may not reach it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast looks progressive with a large cutoff low
centered near Nunavut offering continued chances for
precipitation this weekend and into next week. Several spokes of
energy cycle through the Northeastern CONUS the next several
days. Friday evening surface low pressure will develop over the
east coast and move northeast. Models are not in agreement with
the location of the dominant surface low, but a warm front
should arrive sometime Friday evening with a cold front
following for Saturday evening. This will produce widespread
rain showers across the region.

Friday and Saturday will be relatively warm with upper 50s to
mid 60s in southerly flow ahead of the system. Increasing clouds
and precipitation will cool things off with 850mb temperatures
dropping about 10 degrees by Sunday morning. Highs at the
surface will struggle into the mid 40s over the mountains and
foothills, with mid 50s elsewhere. This is not overly cool for
this time of year, but after warmer weather recently, it will
feel more than a couple degrees below normal.

A warming trend looks on tap for next week with modified high
pressure pushing up from the south and skirting fast moving flow
to our north. This looks like a good stretch of precipitation
free weather...except for the mountains which may see just
enough short wave energy to produce partly cloudy skies and
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Expect deteriorating conditions from southwest to
northeast today, with conditions becoming IFR by evening in
rain. Could stay MVFR on the other side of the mountains up in
Whitefield. There is the potential for fog to develop this
evening into tonight which would cause further reduction in
visibility, possibly as low as 1/4 mile. Conditions improve
fairly rapidly Thursday morning from west to east, with
scattered showers moving in from the west especially during the
afternoon.

Long Term...Prevailing VFR is expected Thursday night through
Friday morning, but conditions may deteriorate to MVFR or IFR at
times late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. Lingering
-SHRA/-SHSN are possible for KHIE and KLEB Saturday night into
Sunday with other sites VFR. Gusty NW winds are forecast for
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Increasing onshore southeast flow expected today
and tonight, likely topping out at about 30 KT. Prolonged
southeast fetch will also increase the wave heights to over 5
FT, and as high as 10 FT in the central Gulf of Maine waters
near Matinicus. Winds shift to the west and decrease on
Thursday, though it will take a little while for seas to
subside.

Long Term...Waves may increase in southerly flow Saturday. Winds
and seas also approach SCA conditions in west flow behind a
cold front Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is still a good amount of snow left especially in the
higher terrain. Warm temperatures yesterday brought rises to
many of the headwater gages. Expect continued snow melt to
combine with about an inch of rainfall to bring further rises to
all rivers, but especially the headwaters that drain eastward
out of the mountains toward the Atlantic. These are the areas
most likely to see minor flooding, and some locations are
currently forecast by the RFC to reach minor flooding. Because
of this, we have issued a Flood Watch covering the most likely
impacted areas, including the upper Saco River as well as
tributaries of the Androscoggin River. Flooding cannot be ruled
out on the upper Pemigewasset River as well as along the
Kennebec.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
     MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Hanes




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250733
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
333 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring a soaking
rain today and into this evening.  Locally heavy downpours may
result in some brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding with an
isolated thunderstorm or two possible.  Seasonable temperatures
follow for the remainder of the week with mainly dry weather other
than a brief period of rain showers likely Friday.  A cool down will
occur Saturday night and Sunday, but this will be short lived as
unseasonably warm temperatures appear to be in store for the region
by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
955 PM Update...

Temperatures have been very slowly decreasing hours while
dewpoints have slowly increased as seen on surface observation
trends since 22Z. Still noting rather wide T/Td trends, though
they are lower across the immediate S coast and especially on
the islands from the 01Z observations, down to 3 degrees at
KACK.

Weak ridging extending westward from high pressure SE of Nova
Scotia keeping precip at bay this evening with the continued dry
airmass, though noting reports of -RA at KJFK at 01Z.

With mainly cloudy skies across the region, along with winds
becoming generally E-SE, should see temps continue to fall
slowly overnight.

Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current, but
not a whole lot of changes from the previous update.

Previous Discussion...

Model trends have slowed the timing just slightly for the onset
of the warm advection rainfall. This is due to such a dry
airmass in the mid-levels (700-800mb). BUFKIT soundings moisten
the profile out west by 06z and over the east around 10z. Thus
went ahead and slowed the timing. Aside, expect clouds to
thicken and lower during the overnight hours before the
precipitation begins to fall. Anticipate showers to start due
to isentropic lift and in the WAA pattern. Heavier precip will
fall by 09-12z from west to east towards the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Wednesday into Wednesday night...

*** Heavy rainfall and isolated thunder for Wednesday ***

Southern stream surface low will approach the region on Wednesday as
northern stream trough swings into the area from southern
Canada. This surface low will move across the region, allowing
for the southern half of SNE to become warm sectored. This upper
level trough will continue to dig and go negatively tiled
pushing the surface low up into the Gulf of Maine by Thursday
morning.

Rainfall...

Steady rainfall will stream into the region by Wednesday morning as
PWAT values increase to 1.3 inches, 1-2 STD above normal. Associated
with this system, strong LLJ nearing 3 STD above normal will allow
for strong moisture transport into the region. Right now appears
that widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall will occur through Wednesday
night. Think the highest amounts will occur across the Worcester
hills and the east slope of the Berks where upslope flow will help
create a bit more lift. Cannot rule out the potential for 2+
inches in that region, which is indicated by the ARW. Still with
this much rainfall, appears the the main stem rivers will
remain in their banks per NERFC`s forecast and MMEFS. Still, we
will have to watch some of the flashy streams. Right now believe
that urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threat.
Precip will come to an end by late Wednesday into the overnight
hours as main jet lifts farther north. Models also show some
drying into the mid to upper levels which could result in
showery weather towards Thursday morning.

Wind...

As mentioned before, strong LLJ increases during the day on
Wednesday reaching close to 3 STD above normal. In fact, 925mb winds
increase between 50-60 kts. Believe that most of this wind will
remain elevated as soundings show a strong inversion across the
area. However, could see some mixing near the southeast coastal
plain where the potential for thunder could bring down a few strong
winds gusts. Also appears to be a narrow window where lapse rates
may be steep enough. Believe that we could see somewhere near 25-35
MPH across the southeast coastal plain. Will hold off in any adv for
this time as confidence is not that high.

Thunder...

A low risk for thunder during the day on Wednesday as we warm
sector just a bit by the afternoon hours. Models indicate that
showalters drop below 0 and there is some elevated CAPE nearing
a few hundred joules. Like the timing of the SPC HREF MU CAPE
so tried to incorporate that into the forecast. Biggest risk
would be heavy rainfall and some gusty winds within any
thunderstorm.

Fog...

As the system begins to wind down late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, we may have to watch for the potential for fog. High
dewpoint airmass will still be over the region Wednesday night and
with some drying in the mid-levels, low levels appear to remain
saturated. Winds also appears to be light. So aside from some
showers moving across the region, may have to watch for patchy dense
fog, especially across the south coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights...

* A 1-3 hour period of rain showers likely Fri

* Milder Sat with just a few brief afternoon/evening showers possible

* Dry and noticeably cooler Sun with frost potential late Sun night

* Dry weather Mon/Tue/Wed with a significant warming trend and the
  potential for 80+ in some locations by the middle of next week

Details...

Thursday night...

A ridge of high pressure will result in a dry/tranquil night.  Low
temperatures should bottom out in the upper 30s to the middle 40s in
most locales.

Friday...

Shortwave trough remains to our west and it will eject a piece of
energy into our region on southwest flow aloft.  Appears there will
be enough forcing for a 1 to 3 hour period of rain showers sometime
Friday into early Friday evening.  Certainly not looking at a lot of
rain...but appears the likelihood that most locations do see a
brief period of rain showers.  Clouds and the likelihood of a brief
period of wet weather should hold high temps mainly in the
lower 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

A milder day is on tap for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front.  Southwest flow and partial sunshine should allow high
temperatures to recover well into the 60s to possible around 70 in a
few locales.  While dry weather should dominate...an approaching
cold front may trigger a few brief showers during the
afternoon/evening.  Greatest risk will be across western MA...where
forcing/moisture will be a bit deeper.  Turns cooler Sat night
behind the cold front.  Low temps by daybreak Sun should be down
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

Deep trough sets up across the Northeast with anomalously low height
fields.  It will be noticeably cooler...but highs should still top
out well into the 50s with good mixing in northwest flow along with
the benefit of the increasing spring sun angle.  The dry airmass in
place will allow for chilly temps late Sun night into early Mon am.
Lows should bottom out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s in many
locations.  Frost headlines may eventually need to be considered
where the growing season has officially started.

Monday through Wednesday...

The northeast trough quickly moves east of the region Monday and
will be replaced by strong upper level ridging by the middle of next
week.  The result should be dry weather with a significant warmup.
High temps should recover into the lower to middle 60s
Mon...probably well into the 70s by Tue...and the potential for some
80 plus degree readings on Wed.  A weak pressure gradient will
likely allow for sea breezes and cooler conditions along the coast
at times.  Nonetheless...at least a taste of summer afternoon warmth
appears to be in the cards for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Overnight...Expect mainly VFR. Winds will shift to the E-SE
between 06Z and 09Z.

Wednesday...MVFR lowering to IFR, moving in from SW to NE
generally between 10Z and 14Z. Rain will quickly overspread the
region as winds remain E-SE. IFR-LIFR conditions possible
during the late morning into the afternoon with +RA and isolated
thunder. Low risk for 35 kt gusts across the southeast coastal
plain. Otherwise strong LLWS through much of the day.

Wednesday night...IFR with possible LIFR across the area.
Improving to MVFR towards dawn on Thursday. +RA remains trending
towards showery weather after midnight. Could be low vsbys along
the south coast in Fog through much of the night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. May get the first part
of the morning rush through in VFR, albeit lowering cigs.
However, E to SE wind accompanied by rain likely keep cigs/low
late morning into Wed night. Low risk for TSRA after 21z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Morning rush could be
impacted with +RA.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday and Friday night: A period of MVFR to localized IFR conditions
likely in a round of rain showers sometime Friday into early
Friday evening.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Tonight...High confidence. Approach surface low will switch
winds to the ESE and gusts to near 25kts. Seas will build as a
response resulting in SCA.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt and a low
risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening across the
southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain
showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to 3
nm.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231-
     232.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
     254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...EVT/Thompson
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250217
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1017 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring a
soaking wind swept rain to the region very late tonight and
Wednesday with localized heavy downpours. This may result in
some brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding. Other than a
few brief showers possible, mainly dry weather follows Thursday
through Saturday along with seasonably mild temperatures. A
brief cool down expected on Sunday, but this will be short lived
as unseasonably warm temperatures are possible by the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

955 PM Update...

Temperatures have been very slowly decreasing hours while
dewpoints have slowly increased as seen on surface observation
trends since 22Z. Still noting rather wide T/Td trends, though
they are lower across the immediate S coast and especially on
the islands from the 01Z observations, down to 3 degrees at
KACK.

Weak ridging extending westward from high pressure SE of Nova
Scotia keeping precip at bay this evening with the continued dry
airmass, though noting reports of -RA at KJFK at 01Z.

With mainly cloudy skies across the region, along with winds
becoming generally E-SE, should see temps continue to fall
slowly overnight.

Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current, but
not a whole lot of changes from the previous update.

Previous Discussion...

Model trends have slowed the timing just slightly for the onset
of the warm advection rainfall. This is due to such a dry
airmass in the mid-levels (700-800mb). BUFKIT soundings moisten
the profile out west by 06z and over the east around 10z. Thus
went ahead and slowed the timing. Aside, expect clouds to
thicken and lower during the overnight hours before the
precipitation begins to fall. Anticipate showers to start due
to isentropic lift and in the WAA pattern. Heavier precip will
fall by 09-12z from west to east towards the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Wednesday into Wednesday night...

*** Heavy rainfall and isolated thunder for Wednesday ***

Southern stream surface low will approach the region on Wednesday as
northern stream trough swings into the area from southern
Canada. This surface low will move across the region, allowing
for the southern half of SNE to become warm sectored. This upper
level trough will continue to dig and go negatively tiled
pushing the surface low up into the Gulf of Maine by Thursday
morning.

Rainfall...

Steady rainfall will stream into the region by Wednesday morning as
PWAT values increase to 1.3 inches, 1-2 STD above normal. Associated
with this system, strong LLJ nearing 3 STD above normal will allow
for strong moisture transport into the region. Right now appears
that widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall will occur through Wednesday
night. Think the highest amounts will occur across the Worcester
hills and the east slope of the Berks where upslope flow will help
create a bit more lift. Cannot rule out the potential for 2+
inches in that region, which is indicated by the ARW. Still with
this much rainfall, appears the the main stem rivers will
remain in their banks per NERFC`s forecast and MMEFS. Still, we
will have to watch some of the flashy streams. Right now believe
that urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threat.
Precip will come to an end by late Wednesday into the overnight
hours as main jet lifts farther north. Models also show some
drying into the mid to upper levels which could result in
showery weather towards Thursday morning.

Wind...

As mentioned before, strong LLJ increases during the day on
Wednesday reaching close to 3 STD above normal. In fact, 925mb winds
increase between 50-60 kts. Believe that most of this wind will
remain elevated as soundings show a strong inversion across the
area. However, could see some mixing near the southeast coastal
plain where the potential for thunder could bring down a few strong
winds gusts. Also appears to be a narrow window where lapse rates
may be steep enough. Believe that we could see somewhere near 25-35
MPH across the southeast coastal plain. Will hold off in any adv for
this time as confidence is not that high.

Thunder...

A low risk for thunder during the day on Wednesday as we warm
sector just a bit by the afternoon hours. Models indicate that
showalters drop below 0 and there is some elevated CAPE nearing
a few hundred joules. Like the timing of the SPC HREF MU CAPE
so tried to incorporate that into the forecast. Biggest risk
would be heavy rainfall and some gusty winds within any
thunderstorm.

Fog...

As the system begins to wind down late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, we may have to watch for the potential for fog. High
dewpoint airmass will still be over the region Wednesday night and
with some drying in the mid-levels, low levels appear to remain
saturated. Winds also appears to be light. So aside from some
showers moving across the region, may have to watch for patchy dense
fog, especially across the south coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Other than a few possible brief showers mainly dry and seasonable
  Thu/Fri/Sat

* Dry but noticeably cooler and blustery Sun

* Moderating temps Monday and likely in the 70s Tue & Wed!!!

Details...

Thursday...

Moist southern stream trough moving offshore around daybreak
followed by a drying trend through the morning and especially the
afternoon. The only wildcard will be a potent northern stream short
wave that moves across NY state into VT/NH during the afternoon.
Cold temps aloft (-20C at H5) combined with cyclonic flow will yield
a risk for a few afternoon showers. However given the column dries
significantly any shower threat will likely be confined to northern
MA along the NH border where greatest moisture is available.
Otherwise mainly dry weather prevails much of the afternoon with at
least partial sunshine especially across CT/RI and southeast MA with
more clouds over northern MA. Seasonably mild with highs in the 60s,
cooler along the south coast given southwest winds off the cool
ocean waters. It will be somewhat breezy with WSW winds 15-20 mph
gusting up to 25 mph.

Friday and Saturday...

Friday`s forecast has the most uncertainty as southern stream short
wave trough approaches from the southwest. This trough will be in
the process of deamplifying. So despite deep layer moisture
associated with this trough, forcing for ascent will be on a
downward trend. Thus not expecting a washout but can`t rule out
scattered showers. Seasonably mild with highs once again in the 60s
except cooler along the south coast with SW winds off the cooler
ocean.

As for Sat, vigorous northern stream trough approaches from the
northwest along with attending surface cold front. However limiting
factor for rainfall is lack of deep layer moisture. Thus only
expecting risk of a few showers with most locations possibly
remaining dry.  Mild once again with highs in the 60s, 50s south
coast.

Sunday...

Dry weather but noticeably cooler and blustery behind frontal
passage Sat night into Sunday with 850 temps down to about -2C (1
standard deviation cooler than climo). This will only support highs
in the 50s but will feel cooler given blustery WNW winds.

Monday and Tuesday...

Deep mid level trough moves offshore with height rises and a warming
trend developing as east coast ridging commences toward mid week.
Dry weather much of this period with Monday the transition day, a
cool morning giving way to a mild afternoon. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance support highs in the 70s Tue and Wed. Normal high
is 60-65.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...Moderate to High confidence.

Overnight...Expect mainly VFR. Winds will shift to the E-SE
between 06Z and 09Z.

Wednesday...MVFR lowering to IFR, moving in from SW to NE
generally between 10Z and 14Z. Rain will quickly overspread the
region as winds remain E-SE. IFR-LIFR conditions possible
during the late morning into the afternoon with +RA and isolated
thunder. Low risk for 35 kt gusts across the southeast coastal
plain. Otherwise strong LLWS through much of the day.

Wednesday night...IFR with possible LIFR across the area.
Improving to MVFR towards dawn on Thursday. +RA remains trending
towards showery weather after midnight. Could be low vsbys along
the south coast in Fog through much of the night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. May get the first part
of the morning rush through in VFR, albeit lowering cigs.
However, E to SE wind accompanied by rain likely keep cigs/low
late morning into Wed night. Low risk for TSRA after 21z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Morning rush could be
impacted with +RA.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

Tonight...High confidence. Approach surface low will switch
winds to the ESE and gusts to near 25kts. Seas will build as a
response resulting in SCA.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt and a low
risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening across the
southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain
showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to 3
nm.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ231-232.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ235-237-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT/Thompson
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Dunten/EVT/Thompson
MARINE...Dunten/EVT
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250158
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
958 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north into the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night allowing rain to overspread the area from the southwest
in the morning and work northeast by afternoon. A good soaking
rain is expected for most of the region. This system will slowly
exit the region Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring
colder air back into the area, with a freeze possible by Sunday
morning for some of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Winds have
continued to diminish and clouds continue to increase. Light
rain is expected to begin overspreading southern NH late
tonight. The heaviest rainfall from this system is still
expected to be Wed afternoon and evening.

655 PM Update...Have updated the forecast - mainly for latest
trends in temperatures and sky cover. Clouds continue to
increase this evening with winds diminishing. Dry weather is
expected through much of the night.

Previously...

Strong upper ridge continues strong subsidence keeping skies
clear across the region into the evening. Mid/high clouds will
spill through the ridge from west-east later tonight ahead of
the approaching low pressure system from the mid atlantic
region. Models similar on timing overall, spreading rain across
NH after midnight and into southwest Maine toward morning. The
increase in cloud cover and developing south to southeast
onshore flow will combine to help keep temps mild tonight with
lows mostly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models agree on lifting the upper trof with its associated
surface low northeast across the region Wed and Wed night.
Soaking rains can be expected with QPF in the .75 to 1.5 inches
range. RFC QPF guidance appears reasonable and accepted. With
snowmelt in the mountains combining with the rainfall, some
area river flows may approach flood stage.

Temps will be much cooler Wed due to the rain and onshore flow
with highs only reaching into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Meanwhile overnight lows Wed will stay in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 500 MB trend across NOAM ans surrounding bodies of water
will trend toward a somewhat less blocky patter, as closed lows
separate from the nrn stream and allow a more zonal flow, with
warmer air moving pole ward toward our latitude. This will not
happen quickly, and will still have to deal with one trough that
cools things down over the weekend, but overall, no major
systems in the area, and perhaps a more significant warming
trend next week.


Thursday will see weakening 500 MB track NE as sfc low tracks
across the CWA in the morning. Showers and some light rain will
be lingering into the morning, but should see showers become
more infrequent and maybe some breaks of sun in the south during
the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 50s to upper 50s across
most of the cwa, but southern NH could see temps rise into the
low 60s. Some lingering showers will be possible in the
mountains Thu night, but for the most part should see some
clearing everywhere, with lows in the upper 30s N to mid 40s S.

Models agree, in principle, that another sfc wave develops in
response to deepening 500 MB wave to our N, and will bring a
round of showers through NEw England somewhere in the Fri-Sat
nite time period. Chc pops are included for all these periods
for now, and will move up to likely pops once there`s a better
signal as to when this system moves thru. Temps will remain
fairly near normal in this time frame with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday and
Saturday.

It will turn briefly colder behind this system Sunday into
Monday, with temps running a little below normal, and highs
mainly in the 50s Sunday, and slightly warmer on Monday.

The 12Z Euro keep up with the promise of a big warm ridge
building over the wrn Atlantic and pumping in some very warm
air by the middle of next week, which is supported by the GFS,
although not quite as warm.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions thru tonight. Rain spreads from
south to north Wed reducing conditions to IFR.

Long Term...Thu morning will start with IFR or lower, but should
see improvement to MVFR /or VFR in the south/ during the
afternoon. VFR is expected Thu night into FRiday morning, but
may see conds deteriorate to MVFR, or even IFR at times late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
tonight after a few gusts around 25 kt this evening. Increasing
onshore flow Wed afternoon will allow winds and seas to build
to SCA thresholds over the outer waters and continue through
Wednesday night.

Long Term...Seas will remain high through the day Thu despite
weakening winds. The waters should remain quiet Fri and Sat, but
may approach SCA in W flow behind a cold front Sat night into
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Basin average rainfall of up to 1.5 inches is expected Wednesday
and Wednesday night. This, along with recent snowmelt in the
north, will allow rivers to rise - especially Wednesday night. A
flood watch may be needed for some mountain and foothill zones.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250158
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
958 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north into the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night allowing rain to overspread the area from the southwest
in the morning and work northeast by afternoon. A good soaking
rain is expected for most of the region. This system will slowly
exit the region Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring
colder air back into the area, with a freeze possible by Sunday
morning for some of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Winds have
continued to diminish and clouds continue to increase. Light
rain is expected to begin overspreading southern NH late
tonight. The heaviest rainfall from this system is still
expected to be Wed afternoon and evening.

655 PM Update...Have updated the forecast - mainly for latest
trends in temperatures and sky cover. Clouds continue to
increase this evening with winds diminishing. Dry weather is
expected through much of the night.

Previously...

Strong upper ridge continues strong subsidence keeping skies
clear across the region into the evening. Mid/high clouds will
spill through the ridge from west-east later tonight ahead of
the approaching low pressure system from the mid atlantic
region. Models similar on timing overall, spreading rain across
NH after midnight and into southwest Maine toward morning. The
increase in cloud cover and developing south to southeast
onshore flow will combine to help keep temps mild tonight with
lows mostly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models agree on lifting the upper trof with its associated
surface low northeast across the region Wed and Wed night.
Soaking rains can be expected with QPF in the .75 to 1.5 inches
range. RFC QPF guidance appears reasonable and accepted. With
snowmelt in the mountains combining with the rainfall, some
area river flows may approach flood stage.

Temps will be much cooler Wed due to the rain and onshore flow
with highs only reaching into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Meanwhile overnight lows Wed will stay in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 500 MB trend across NOAM ans surrounding bodies of water
will trend toward a somewhat less blocky patter, as closed lows
separate from the nrn stream and allow a more zonal flow, with
warmer air moving pole ward toward our latitude. This will not
happen quickly, and will still have to deal with one trough that
cools things down over the weekend, but overall, no major
systems in the area, and perhaps a more significant warming
trend next week.


Thursday will see weakening 500 MB track NE as sfc low tracks
across the CWA in the morning. Showers and some light rain will
be lingering into the morning, but should see showers become
more infrequent and maybe some breaks of sun in the south during
the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 50s to upper 50s across
most of the cwa, but southern NH could see temps rise into the
low 60s. Some lingering showers will be possible in the
mountains Thu night, but for the most part should see some
clearing everywhere, with lows in the upper 30s N to mid 40s S.

Models agree, in principle, that another sfc wave develops in
response to deepening 500 MB wave to our N, and will bring a
round of showers through NEw England somewhere in the Fri-Sat
nite time period. Chc pops are included for all these periods
for now, and will move up to likely pops once there`s a better
signal as to when this system moves thru. Temps will remain
fairly near normal in this time frame with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday and
Saturday.

It will turn briefly colder behind this system Sunday into
Monday, with temps running a little below normal, and highs
mainly in the 50s Sunday, and slightly warmer on Monday.

The 12Z Euro keep up with the promise of a big warm ridge
building over the wrn Atlantic and pumping in some very warm
air by the middle of next week, which is supported by the GFS,
although not quite as warm.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions thru tonight. Rain spreads from
south to north Wed reducing conditions to IFR.

Long Term...Thu morning will start with IFR or lower, but should
see improvement to MVFR /or VFR in the south/ during the
afternoon. VFR is expected Thu night into FRiday morning, but
may see conds deteriorate to MVFR, or even IFR at times late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
tonight after a few gusts around 25 kt this evening. Increasing
onshore flow Wed afternoon will allow winds and seas to build
to SCA thresholds over the outer waters and continue through
Wednesday night.

Long Term...Seas will remain high through the day Thu despite
weakening winds. The waters should remain quiet Fri and Sat, but
may approach SCA in W flow behind a cold front Sat night into
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Basin average rainfall of up to 1.5 inches is expected Wednesday
and Wednesday night. This, along with recent snowmelt in the
north, will allow rivers to rise - especially Wednesday night. A
flood watch may be needed for some mountain and foothill zones.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242323
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
723 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring a soaking
wind swept rain to the region very late tonight and Wednesday with
localized heavy downpours. This may result in some brief nuisance
poor drainage street flooding.  Other than a few brief showers
possible mainly dry weather follows Thursday through Saturday along
with seasonably mild temperatures.  A brief cool down expected on
Sunday, but this will be short lived as unseasonably warm
temperatures are possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

715 PM Update...

Only adjustment to the forecast is to delay the onset of rain
by a couple hours or so based on latest model and observed
trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

400 PM Update...

Dry weather prevails this afternoon as high pressure east of the
region continues to influence the area. Plenty of mixing across the
area which has resulted in temperatures warming into the upper 60s
and low 70s. Southwest wind gusts have reached around 20-25 MPH, but
should subside by sunset. Aside from a few minor tweaks, the
forecast remains quiet and on track for this evening.

Tonight...

Southern stream low pressure system and approaching upper level
trough from the upper Midwest will bring periods of rainfall late
tonight and into tomorrow.

Model trends have slowed the onset time just slightly for the onset
of the warm advection rainfall. This is due to such a dry airmass in
the mid-levels (700-800mb). BUFKIT soundings moisten the profile out
west by 06z and over the east around 10z. Thus went ahead and slowed
the timing. Aside, expect clouds to thicken and lower during the
overnight hours before the precipitation begins to fall. Anticipate
showers to start due to isentropic lift and in the WAA pattern.
Heavier precip will fall by 09-12z from west to east towards the
morning hours.

Because of the increase cloud cover, overnight temperatures will be
mild as radiational cooling will be limited. Lows will remain in the
mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday into Wednesday night...

*** Heavy rainfall and isolated thunder for Wednesday ***

Southern stream surface low will approach the region on Wednesday as
northern stream trough swings into the area from southern
Canada. This surface low will move across the region, allowing
for the southern half of SNE to become warm sectored. This upper
level trough will continue to dig and go negativly tiled
pushing the surface low up into teh Gulf of Maine by Thursday
morning.

Rainfall...

Steady rainfall will stream into the region by Wednesday morning as
PWAT values increase to 1.3 inches, 1-2 STD above normal. Associated
with this system, strong LLJ nearing 3 STD above normal will allow
for strong moisture transport into the region. Right now appears
that widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall will occur through Wednesday
night. Think the highest amounts will occur across the Worcester
hills and the east slope of the Berks where upslope flow will help
create a bit more lift. Cannot rule out the potential for 2+
inches in that region, which is indicated by the ARW. Still with
this much rainfall, appears the the main stem rivers will
remain in their banks per NERFC`s forecast and MMEFS. Still, we
will have to watch some of the flashy streams. Right now believe
that urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threat.
Precip will come to an end by late Wednesday into the overnight
hours as main jet lifts farther north. Models also show some
drying into the mid to upper levels which could result in
showery weather towards Thursday morning.

Wind...

As mentioned before, strong LLJ increases during the day on
Wednesday reaching close to 3 STD above normal. In fact, 925mb winds
increase between 50-60 kts. Believe that most of this wind will
remain elevated as soundings show a strong inversion across the
area. However, could see some mixing near the southeast coastal
plain where the potential for thunder could bring down a few strong
winds gusts. Also appears to be a narrow window where lapse rates
may be steep enough. Believe that we could see somewhere near 25-35
MPH across the southeast coastal plain. Will hold off in any adv for
this time as confidence is not that high.

Thunder...

A low risk for thunder during the day on Wednesday as we warm
sector just a bit by the afternoon hours. Models indicate that
showalters drop below 0 and there is some elevated CAPE nearing
a few hundred jules. Like the timing of the SPC HREF MU CAPE so
tried to incorporate that into the forecast. Biggest risk would
be heavy rainfall and some gusty winds within any thunderstorm.

Fog...

As the system begins to wind down late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, we may have to watch for the potential for fog. High
dewpoint airmass will still be over the region Wednesday night and
with some drying in the mid-levels, low levels appear to remain
saturated. Winds also appears to be light. So aside from some
showers moving across the region, may have to watch for patchy dense
fog, especially across the south coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Other than a few possible brief showers mainly dry and seasonable
  Thu/Fri/Sat

* Dry but noticeably cooler and blustery Sun

* Moderating temps Monday and likely in the 70s Tue & Wed!!!

Details...

Thursday...

Moist southern stream trough moving offshore around daybreak
followed by a drying trend through the morning and especially the
afternoon. The only wildcard will be a potent northern stream short
wave that moves across NY state into VT/NH during the afternoon.
Cold temps aloft (-20C at H5) combined with cyclonic flow will yield
a risk for a few afternoon showers. However given the column dries
significantly any shower threat will likely be confined to northern
MA along the NH border where greatest moisture is available.
Otherwise mainly dry weather prevails much of the afternoon with at
least partial sunshine especially across CT/RI and southeast MA with
more clouds over northern MA. Seasonably mild with highs in the 60s,
cooler along the south coast given southwest winds off the cool
ocean waters. It will be somewhat breezy with WSW winds 15-20 mph
gusting up to 25 mph.

Friday and Saturday...

Friday`s forecast has the most uncertainty as southern stream short
wave trough approaches from the southwest. This trough will be in
the process of deamplifying. So despite deep layer moisture
associated with this trough, forcing for ascent will be on a
downward trend. Thus not expecting a washout but can`t rule out
scattered showers. Seasonably mild with highs once again in the 60s
except cooler along the south coast with SW winds off the cooler
ocean.

As for Sat, vigorous northern stream trough approaches from the
northwest along with attending surface cold front. However limiting
factor for rainfall is lack of deep layer moisture. Thus only
expecting risk of a few showers with most locations possibly
remaining dry.  Mild once again with highs in the 60s, 50s south
coast.

Sunday...

Dry weather but noticeably cooler and blustery behind frontal
passage Sat night into Sunday with 850 temps down to about -2C (1
standard deviation cooler than climo). This will only support highs
in the 50s but will feel cooler given blustery WNW winds.

Monday and Tuesday...

Deep mid level trough moves offshore with height rises and a warming
trend developing as east coast ridging commences toward mid week.
Dry weather much of this period with Monday the transition day, a
cool morning giving way to a mild afternoon. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance support highs in the 70s Tue and Wed. Normal high
is 60-65.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...Moderate to High confidence.

Expect VFR into the early morning hours. Winds will shift to
the east/southeast between 06Z and 09Z.


MVFR dropping to IFR towards Wednesday SW to NE generally
between 10Z and 14Z. Rain will quickly overspread the region as
winds remain ESE. IFR/LIFR is possible during the late morning
into the afternoon with +RA and iso thunder. Low risk for 35 kt
gusts across the southeast coastal plain. Otherwise strong LLWS
through much of the day.

Wednesday night...IFR with possible LIFR across the area.
Improving to MVFR towards dawn on Thursday. +RA remains trending
towards showery weather after midnight. Could be low vsbys along
the south coast in Fog through much of the night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. May get the first part
of the morning rush through in VFR, albeit lowering cigs.
However, E to SE wind accompanied by rain likely keep cigs/low
late morning into Wed night. Low risk for TSRA after 21z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Morning rush could be
impacted with +RA.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

Tonight...High confidence. Approach surface low will switch
winds to the ESE and gusts to near 25kts. Seas will build as a
response resulting in SCA.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt and a low
risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening across the
southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain
showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to 3
nm.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ231-232.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ235-237-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Dunten/Thompson
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten/Thompson
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 242254
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
654 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north into the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night allowing rain to overspread the area from the southwest
in the morning and work northeast by afternoon. A good soaking
rain is expected for most of the region. This system will slowly
exit the region Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring
colder air back into the area, with a freeze possible by Sunday
morning for some of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
655 PM Update...Have updated the forecast - mainly for latest
trends in temperatures and sky cover. Clouds continue to
increase this evening with winds diminishing. Dry weather is
expected through much of the night.

Previously...

Strong upper ridge continues strong subsidence keeping skies
clear across the region into the evening. Mid/high clouds will
spill through the ridge from west-east later tonight ahead of
the approaching low pressure system from the mid atlantic
region. Models similar on timing overall, spreading rain across
NH after midnight and into southwest Maine toward morning. The
increase in cloud cover and developing south to southeast
onshore flow will combine to help keep temps mild tonight with
lows mostly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models agree on lifting the upper trof with its associated
surface low northeast across the region Wed and Wed night.
Soaking rains can be expected with QPF in the .75 to 1.5 inches
range. RFC QPF guidance appears reasonable and accepted. With
snowmelt in the mountains combining with the rainfall, some
area river flows may approach flood stage.

Temps will be much cooler Wed due to the rain and onshore flow
with highs only reaching into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Meanwhile overnight lows Wed will stay in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 500 MB trend across NOAM ans surrounding bodies of water
will trend toward a somewhat less blocky patter, as closed lows
separate from the nrn stream and allow a more zonal flow, with
warmer air moving pole ward toward our latitude. This will not
happen quickly, and will still have to deal with one trough that
cools things down over the weekend, but overall, no major
systems in the area, and perhaps a more significant warming
trend next week.


Thursday will see weakening 500 MB track NE as sfc low tracks
across the CWA in the morning. Showers and some light rain will
be lingering into the morning, but should see showers become
more infrequent and maybe some breaks of sun in the south during
the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 50s to upper 50s across
most of the cwa, but southern NH could see temps rise into the
low 60s. Some lingering showers will be possible in the
mountains Thu night, but for the most part should see some
clearing everywhere, with lows in the upper 30s N to mid 40s S.

Models agree, in principle, that another sfc wave develops in
response to deepening 500 MB wave to our N, and will bring a
round of showers through NEw England somewhere in the Fri-Sat
nite time period. Chc pops are included for all these periods
for now, and will move up to likely pops once there`s a better
signal as to when this system moves thru. Temps will remain
fairly near normal in this time frame with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday and
Saturday.

It will turn briefly colder behind this system Sunday into
Monday, with temps running a little below normal, and highs
mainly in the 50s Sunday, and slightly warmer on Monday.

The 12Z Euro keep up with the promise of a big warm ridge
building over the wrn Atlantic and pumping in some very warm
air by the middle of next week, which is supported by the GFS,
although not quite as warm.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions thru tonight. Rain spreads from
south to north Wed reducing conditions to IFR.

Long Term...Thu morning will start with IFR or lower, but should
see improvement to MVFR /or VFR in the south/ during the
afternoon. VFR is expected Thu night into FRiday morning, but
may see conds deteriorate to MVFR, or even IFR at times late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
tonight after a few gusts around 25 kt this evening. Increasing
onshore flow Wed afternoon will allow winds and seas to build
to SCA thresholds over the outer waters and continue through
Wednesday night.

Long Term...Seas will remain high through the day Thu despite
weakening winds. The waters should remain quiet Fri and Sat, but
may approach SCA in W flow behind a cold front Sat night into
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tonight cool temps and good RH recovery. Wednesday into early
Thursday widespread soaking rain is expected and will
significantly reduce the fire danger.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242012
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
412 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring a soaking
wind swept rain to the region very late tonight and Wednesday with
localized heavy downpours. This may result in some brief nuisance
poor drainage street flooding.  Other than a few brief showers
possible mainly dry weather follows Thursday through Saturday along
with seasonably mild temperatures.  A brief cool down expected on
Sunday, but this will be short lived as unseasonably warm
temperatures are possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400 PM Update...

Dry weather prevails this afternoon as high pressure east of the
region continues to influence the area. Plenty of mixing across the
area which has resulted in temperatures warming into the upper 60s
and low 70s. Southwest wind gusts have reached around 20-25 MPH, but
should subside by sunset. Aside from a few minor tweaks, the
forecast remains quiet and on track for this evening.

Tonight...

Southern stream low pressure system and approaching upper level
trough from the upper Midwest will bring periods of rainfall late
tonight and into tomorrow.

Model trends have slowed the onset time just slightly for the onset
of the warm advection rainfall. This is due to such a dry airmass in
the mid-levels (700-800mb). BUFKIT soundings moisten the profile out
west by 06z and over the east around 10z. Thus went ahead and slowed
the timing. Aside, expect clouds to thicken and lower during the
overnight hours before the precipitation begins to fall. Anticipate
showers to start due to isentropic lift and in the WAA pattern.
Heavier precip will fall by 09-12z from west to east towards the
morning hours.

Because of the increase cloud cover, overnight temperatures will be
mild as radiational cooling will be limited. Lows will remain in the
mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Wednesday into Wednesday night...

*** Heavy rainfall and isolated thunder for Wednesday ***

Southern stream surface low will approach the region on Wednesday as
northern stream trough swings into the area from southern
Canada. This surface low will move across the region, allowing
for the southern half of SNE to become warm sectored. This upper
level trough will continue to dig and go negativly tiled
pushing the surface low up into teh Gulf of Maine by Thursday
morning.

Rainfall...

Steady rainfall will stream into the region by Wednesday morning as
PWAT values increase to 1.3 inches, 1-2 STD above normal. Associated
with this system, strong LLJ nearing 3 STD above normal will allow
for strong moisture transport into the region. Right now appears
that widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall will occur through Wednesday
night. Think the highest amounts will occur across the Worcester
hills and the east slope of the Berks where upslope flow will help
create a bit more lift. Cannot rule out the potential for 2+
inches in that region, which is indicated by the ARW. Still with
this much rainfall, appears the the main stem rivers will
remain in their banks per NERFC`s forecast and MMEFS. Still, we
will have to watch some of the flashy streams. Right now believe
that urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threat.
Precip will come to an end by late Wednesday into the overnight
hours as main jet lifts farther north. Models also show some
drying into the mid to upper levels which could result in
showery weather towards Thursday morning.

Wind...

As mentioned before, strong LLJ increases during the day on
Wednesday reaching close to 3 STD above normal. In fact, 925mb winds
increase between 50-60 kts. Believe that most of this wind will
remain elevated as soundings show a strong inversion across the
area. However, could see some mixing near the southeast coastal
plain where the potential for thunder could bring down a few strong
winds gusts. Also appears to be a narrow window where lapse rates
may be steep enough. Believe that we could see somewhere near 25-35
MPH across the southeast coastal plain. Will hold off in any adv for
this time as confidence is not that high.

Thunder...

A low risk for thunder during the day on Wednesday as we warm
sector just a bit by the afternoon hours. Models indicate that
showalters drop below 0 and there is some elevated CAPE nearing
a few hundred jules. Like the timing of the SPC HREF MU CAPE so
tried to incorporate that into the forecast. Biggest risk would
be heavy rainfall and some gusty winds within any thunderstorm.

Fog...

As the system begins to wind down late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, we may have to watch for the potential for fog. High
dewpoint airmass will still be over the region Wednesday night and
with some drying in the mid-levels, low levels appear to remain
saturated. Winds also appears to be light. So aside from some
showers moving across the region, may have to watch for patchy dense
fog, especially across the south coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Other than a few possible brief showers mainly dry and seasonable
  Thu/Fri/Sat

* Dry but noticeably cooler and blustery Sun

* Moderating temps Monday and likely in the 70s Tue & Wed!!!

Details...

Thursday...

Moist southern stream trough moving offshore around daybreak
followed by a drying trend through the morning and especially the
afternoon. The only wildcard will be a potent northern stream short
wave that moves across NY state into VT/NH during the afternoon.
Cold temps aloft (-20C at H5) combined with cyclonic flow will yield
a risk for a few afternoon showers. However given the column dries
significantly any shower threat will likely be confined to northern
MA along the NH border where greatest moisture is available.
Otherwise mainly dry weather prevails much of the afternoon with at
least partial sunshine especially across CT/RI and southeast MA with
more clouds over northern MA. Seasonably mild with highs in the 60s,
cooler along the south coast given southwest winds off the cool
ocean waters. It will be somewhat breezy with WSW winds 15-20 mph
gusting up to 25 mph.

Friday and Saturday...

Friday`s forecast has the most uncertainty as southern stream short
wave trough approaches from the southwest. This trough will be in
the process of deamplifying. So despite deep layer moisture
associated with this trough, forcing for ascent will be on a
downward trend. Thus not expecting a washout but can`t rule out
scattered showers. Seasonably mild with highs once again in the 60s
except cooler along the south coast with SW winds off the cooler
ocean.

As for Sat, vigorous northern stream trough approaches from the
northwest along with attending surface cold front. However limiting
factor for rainfall is lack of deep layer moisture. Thus only
expecting risk of a few showers with most locations possibly
remaining dry.  Mild once again with highs in the 60s, 50s south
coast.

Sunday...

Dry weather but noticeably cooler and blustery behind frontal
passage Sat night into Sunday with 850 temps down to about -2C (1
standard deviation cooler than climo). This will only support highs
in the 50s but will feel cooler given blustery WNW winds.

Monday and Tuesday...

Deep mid level trough moves offshore with height rises and a warming
trend developing as east coast ridging commences toward mid week.
Dry weather much of this period with Monday the transition day, a
cool morning giving way to a mild afternoon. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance support highs in the 70s Tue and Wed. Normal high
is 60-65.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...Moderate to High confidence.

Now til midnight...VFR. Southerly wind gusts near 25 kts
through the afternoon. Southerly winds gusts will subside as
winds begin to shift to the east/southeast.

After midnight into Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR towards
Wednesday morning. Rain will quickly overspread the region as
winds remain ESE. IFR/LIFR is possible during the late morning
into the afternoon with +RA and iso thunder. Low risk for 35 kt
gusts across the southeast coastal plain. Otherwise strong LLWS
through much of the day.

Wednesday night...IFR with possible LIFR across the area.
Improving to MVFR towards dawn on Thursday. +RA remains trending
towards showery weather after midnight. Could be low vsbys along
the south coast in Fog through much of the night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low risk for TSRA after
21z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Morning rush could be
impacted with +RA.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

Tonight...High confidence. Approach surface low will switch
winds to the ESE and gusts to near 25kts. Seas will build as a
response resulting in SCA.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Moderate confidence.
Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt and a low
risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening across the
southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain
showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to 3
nm.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...Moderate to High

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ231-232.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ235-237-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241907
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
307 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north into the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night allowing rain to overspread the area from the southwest
in the morning and work northeast by afternoon. A good soaking
rain is expected for most of the region. This system will slowly
exit the region Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring
colder air back into the area, with a freeze possible by Sunday
morning for some of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong upper ridge continues strong subsidence keeping skies
clear across the region into the evening. Mid/high clouds will
spill through the ridge from west-east later tonight ahead of
the approaching low pressure system from the mid atlantic
region. Models similar on timing overall, spreading rain across
NH after midnight and into southwest Maine toward morning. The
increase in cloud cover and developing south to southeast
onshore flow will combine to help keep temps mild tonight with
lows mostly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models agree on lifting the upper trof with its associated
surface low northeast across the region Wed and Wed night.
Soaking rains can be expected with QPF in the .75 to 1.5 inches
range. RFC QPF guidance appears reasonable and accepted. With
snowmelt in the mountains combining with the rainfall, some
area river flows may approach flood stage.

Temps will be much cooler Wed due to the rain and onshore flow
with highs only reaching into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Meanwhile overnight lows Wed will stay in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 500 MB trend across NOAM ans surrounding bodies of water
will trend toward a somewhat less blocky patter, as closed lows
separate from the nrn stream and allow a more zonal flow, with
warmer air moving pole ward toward our latitude. This will not
happen quickly, and will still have to deal with one trough that
cools things down over the weekend, but overall, no major
systems in the area, and perhaps a more significant warming
trend next week.


Thursday will see weakening 500 MB track NE as sfc low tracks
across the CWA in the morning. Showers and some light rain will
be lingering into the morning, but should see showers become
more infrequent and maybe some breaks of sun in the south during
the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 50s to upper 50s across
most of the cwa, but southern NH could see temps rise into the
low 60s. Some lingering showers will be possible in the
mountainsThu night, but for the most part should see some
clearing everywhere, with lows in the upper 30s N to mid 40s S.

Models agree, in principle, that another sfc wave develops in
response to deepening 500 MB wave to our N, and will bring a
round of showers through NEw England somewhere in the Fri-Sat
nite time period. Chc pops are included for all these periods
for now, and will move up to likely pops once there`s a better
signal as to when this system moves thru. Temps will remain
fairly near normal in this time frame with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday and
Saturday.

It will turn briefly colder behind this system Sunday into
Monday, with temps running a little below normal, and highs
mainly in the 50s Sunday, and slightly warmer on Monday.

The 12Z Euro keep up with the promise of a big warm ridge
building over the wrn Atlantic and pumping in some very warm
air by the middle of next week, which is supported by the GFS,
although not quite as warm.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions thru tonight. Rain spreads from
south to north Wed reducing conditions to IFR.

Long Term...Thu morning will start with IFR or lower, but should
see improvement to MVFR /or VFR in the south/ during the
afternoon. VFR is expected Thu night into FRiday morning, but
may see conds deteriorate to MVFR, or even IFR at times late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
tonight. Increasing onshore flow Wed afternoon will allow winds
and seas to build to SCA thresholds over the outer waters and
continue through Wednesday night.

Long Term...Seas will remain high through the day Thu despite
weakening winds. The waters should remain quiet Fri and Sat, but
may approach SCA in W flow behind a cold front Sat night into
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tonight cool temps and good RH recovery. Wednesday into early
Thursday widespread soaking rain is expected and will
significantly reduce the fire danger.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241800
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
200 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control today will result in plenty of
sunshine and another mild afternoon. Low pressure approaching
from the southwest will bring a soaking rain to the region very
late tonight and Wednesday with localized heavy downpours. This
may result in some brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding.
Seasonable temperatures follow Thursday through Saturday with
mainly dry weather other than a few brief showers possible. A
brief cool down expected on Sunday, but this will be short lived
as unseasonably warm temperatures are possible by the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM Update...

Dry weather and mostly clear skies remain across the region
today. High level cirrus is starting to stream up into
Connecticut and will continue to advance northeastward through
the day. Biggest change in the forecast was to increase wind
speeds as gusts around 20 MPH is ongoing and should linger into
the afternoon as we continue to mix.

Several locations have warmed into the upper 60s into low 70s
across the interior. South coastal regions have remained in the
mid to upper 50s thanks to onshore winds. Aside from a few minor
tweaks the forecast remains on track for this evening.

Previous Discussion...

Trends in the forecast remain on track for today. Strong high
pressure remains east of the region resulting in south/southwest
flow. Aloft, ridge axis remains over the region as moisture from
the Carolinas begins to stream into the area. This will
increase high level cloud cover, especially during the late
afternoon.

Temperatures have been on the rise early this morning with FIT
already coming in at 60F. Because mixing will increase moreso
then originally thought, believe that a run at the low 70`s is
possible esp across the Merrimack Valley. Gusts will increase
to near 20 MPH by the afternoon dropping RH values to below 25
percent (away from the coast). An SPS for fire weather interest
have been issued as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...

As the high shifts E, low pressure will develop near Chesapeake
Bay and the Delmarva peninsula. This will cause winds to back
to SE and start to increase. Noting a good low level moisture
feed setting up with the developing SE fetch from the western
Atlantic, which will moisten up the airmass.

Will see area of rain to lift NE into western areas by around
midnight, then steadily shifts E overnight. Swath of PWAT
moisture on the order of 1 to 1.2 inches works across the region
with the onshore flow. POPs approach categorical across most
areas by daybreak. Best lift remains S and W of the region, so
will see light rainfall, up to 0.2 inches across the lower CT
valley by 12Z.

With increasing clouds and dewpoints across the region, will see
temps only bottom out in the 40s.

Wednesday...

Low pressure will hug the NJ/DE coast during the day, keeping a
steady SE moisture feed working across the region. All models
signal a good slug of rainfall moving across, especially across
central and western areas. May see up to 0.5 to 1 inches of
rainfall, with a good shot of a bit more across the eastern
slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills with a good
upslope feed.

Also noting very good instability axis crossing the region
during the day as the low approaches with K indices to the
lower 30s, LI values of zero to -1 and Total Totals around 50.
Have continued to mention isolated thunder. With the convection,
could see locally heavy downpours that may produce urban and
poor drainage flooding.

Rather strong SE low level jet, on order of 55-60 kt, but some
question how much of this will mix down. May see some of this
mix down along the S coast Wed afternoon, with gusts up to 25-35
kt possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Scattered showers Wed night with an isolated t-storm possible

* Mainly dry+seasonable Thu/Fri/Sat other than a few brief showers

* Dry and a bit cooler Sun with moderating temperatures by Mon

* Unseasonably warm temps may arrive by the middle of next week

Details...

Wednesday night...

The deeper moisture and forcing will push east of the region
Wednesday evening, bringing an end to the widespread rain.
However, upper level energy remaining west of the region coupled
with surface boundary will result in scattered showers
persisting well into the night. In fact...there is enough
elevated instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Low
temps will drop mainly into the upper 40s to around 50 and areas
of fog are also anticipated.

Thursday...

Drier mid level air will be working into the region from the west
allowing for partial sunshine.  Given the mild start high temps
should reach well into the 60s in most locales.  Mainly dry weather
anticipated...but shortwave/cold pool aloft will move across central
and northern New England. We should be on the southern fringe of its
main impacts...but given cold pool aloft a few brief showers are
possible with the greatest risk north of MA turnpike.

Friday and Saturday...

Overall...seasonable weather continues for late April.  While most
of this period will feature dry weather, it is possible a wave of
low pressure brings a brief period of showers late Friday if it
tracks close enough to the coast. Greatest risk for this will be
across southeast New England.  As for Sat...while most of the time
will be dry a cold front may bring a few passing showers Sat
afternoon and evening.  Highs Fri and Sat will mainly be in the 60s.

Sunday and Monday...

Dry weather behind the cold front with somewhat cooler weather Sun.
Still a pleasant day though with highs mainly in the 50s to perhaps
a few locales near 60 across southeast New England.  After a cool
start early Monday morning with many locales dipping down into the
30s...highs should recover into the 60s Monday afternoon as rising
height fields begin the warming trend.  In fact...much of our long
range guidance is showing the potential for unseasonable warmth by
the middle of next week with upper level ridging building over the
eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Now til midnight...VFR. Southerly wind gusts near 25 kts
through the afternoon. Southerly winds gusts will subside as
winds begin to shift to the east/southeast.

After midnight into Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR towards
Wednesday morning. Rain will quickly overspread the region as
winds remain ESE. IFR/LIFR is possible during the late morning
into the afternoon with +RA and iso thunder. Low risk for 35 kt
gusts across the southeast coastal plain. Otherwise strong LLWS
through much of the day.

Wednesday night...IFR with possible LIFR across the area.
Improving to MVFR towards dawn on Thursday. +RA remains trending
towards showery weather after midnight. Could be low vsbys along
the south coast in Fog through much of the night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low risk for TSRA after
21z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Morning rush could be
impacted with +RA.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt across southeast New England coast during the
evening with some LLWS. SCT SHRA, areas BR, isolated TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...High confidence.
S-SW wind increasing with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 feet or less.

Tonight...High confidence.
Winds shift to SE and gusts up to 25 kt. Small craft advisories
have been issued. Seas build to 5 ft on the southern outer
coastal waters late. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog.
Rain developing after midnight from W-E.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
SE winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Low risk of Gale force gusts on
the eastern outer waters Wed afternoon. Seas build to 6 to 12
feet, highest on the southern outer waters. Visibility
restrictions in areas of rain and fog. Isolated thunderstorms.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Wednesday Night: Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30
kt and a low risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening
across the southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of
rain showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with minimum RH values of 15 to 25 percent away
from the immediate coast are expected today. South to southwest
winds will gust up to 15 to 20 mph with some brief gusts up to
25 mph possible this afternoon.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ231-232-235-237-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Dunten
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241416
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1016 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control today will result in plenty of
sunshine and another mild afternoon. Low pressure approaching
from the southwest will bring a soaking rain to the region very
late tonight and Wednesday with localized heavy downpours. This
may result in some brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding.
Seasonable temperatures follow Thursday through Saturday with
mainly dry weather other than a few brief showers possible. A
brief cool down expected on Sunday, but this will be short lived
as unseasonably warm temperatures are possible by the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM Update...

Trends in the forecast remain on track for today. Strong high
pressure remains east of the region resulting in south/southwest
flow. Aloft, ridge axis remains over the region as moisture from
the Carolinas begins to stream into the area. This will
increase high level cloud cover, especially during the late
afternoon.

Temperatures have been on the rise early this morning with FIT
already coming in at 60F. Because mixing will increase moreso
then originally thought, believe that a run at the low 70`s is
possible esp across the Merrimack Valley. Gusts will increase
to near 20 MPH by the afternoon dropping RH values to below 25
percent (away from the coast). An SPS for fire weather interest
have been issued as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...

As the high shifts E, low pressure will develop near Chesapeake
Bay and the Delmarva peninsula. This will cause winds to back
to SE and start to increase. Noting a good low level moisture
feed setting up with the developing SE fetch from the western
Atlantic, which will moisten up the airmass.

Will see area of rain to lift NE into western areas by around
midnight, then steadily shifts E overnight. Swath of PWAT
moisture on the order of 1 to 1.2 inches works across the region
with the onshore flow. POPs approach categorical across most
areas by daybreak. Best lift remains S and W of the region, so
will see light rainfall, up to 0.2 inches across the lower CT
valley by 12Z.

With increasing clouds and dewpoints across the region, will see
temps only bottom out in the 40s.

Wednesday...

Low pressure will hug the NJ/DE coast during the day, keeping a
steady SE moisture feed working across the region. All models
signal a good slug of rainfall moving across, especially across
central and western areas. May see up to 0.5 to 1 inches of
rainfall, with a good shot of a bit more across the eastern
slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills with a good
upslope feed.

Also noting very good instability axis crossing the region
during the day as the low approaches with K indices to the
lower 30s, LI values of zero to -1 and Total Totals around 50.
Have continued to mention isolated thunder. With the convection,
could see locally heavy downpours that may produce urban and
poor drainage flooding.

Rather strong SE low level jet, on order of 55-60 kt, but some
question how much of this will mix down. May see some of this
mix down along the S coast Wed afternoon, with gusts up to 25-35
kt possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Scattered showers Wed night with an isolated t-storm possible

* Mainly dry+seasonable Thu/Fri/Sat other than a few brief showers

* Dry and a bit cooler Sun with moderating temperatures by Mon

* Unseasonably warm temps may arrive by the middle of next week

Details...

Wednesday night...

The deeper moisture and forcing will push east of the region
Wednesday evening, bringing an end to the widespread rain.
However, upper level energy remaining west of the region coupled
with surface boundary will result in scattered showers
persisting well into the night. In fact...there is enough
elevated instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Low
temps will drop mainly into the upper 40s to around 50 and areas
of fog are also anticipated.

Thursday...

Drier mid level air will be working into the region from the west
allowing for partial sunshine.  Given the mild start high temps
should reach well into the 60s in most locales.  Mainly dry weather
anticipated...but shortwave/cold pool aloft will move across central
and northern New England. We should be on the southern fringe of its
main impacts...but given cold pool aloft a few brief showers are
possible with the greatest risk north of MA turnpike.

Friday and Saturday...

Overall...seasonable weather continues for late April.  While most
of this period will feature dry weather, it is possible a wave of
low pressure brings a brief period of showers late Friday if it
tracks close enough to the coast. Greatest risk for this will be
across southeast New England.  As for Sat...while most of the time
will be dry a cold front may bring a few passing showers Sat
afternoon and evening.  Highs Fri and Sat will mainly be in the 60s.

Sunday and Monday...

Dry weather behind the cold front with somewhat cooler weather Sun.
Still a pleasant day though with highs mainly in the 50s to perhaps
a few locales near 60 across southeast New England.  After a cool
start early Monday morning with many locales dipping down into the
30s...highs should recover into the 60s Monday afternoon as rising
height fields begin the warming trend.  In fact...much of our long
range guidance is showing the potential for unseasonable warmth by
the middle of next week with upper level ridging building over the
eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...VFR. Prevailing wind from the S-SW, increasing to
to between 10 and 15 kt by midday with a few gusts to 25 knots.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Patches of MVFR conditions after
midnight, with local IFR possible towards daybreak across CT
valley. -RA moving across the area by around midnight across
the CT valley, then shifting E after midnight.

Wednesday...Conditions lower to IFR from W-E by midday, with
local LIFR possible along S coastal terminals. SE wind gusts up
to 25-30 kt across Cape Cod and the islands Wed afternoon.
Isolated TSRA. LLWS along S coast Wed afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low risk for possible
brief sea breeze late morning to midday today before S-SW winds
increase.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt across southeast New England coast during the
evening with some LLWS. SCT SHRA, areas BR, isolated TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...High confidence.
S-SW wind increasing with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 feet or less.

Tonight...High confidence.
Winds shift to SE and gusts up to 25 kt. Small craft advisories
have been issued. Seas build to 5 ft on the southern outer
coastal waters late. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog.
Rain developing after midnight from W-E.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
SE winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Low risk of Gale force gusts on
the eastern outer waters Wed afternoon. Seas build to 6 to 12
feet, highest on the southern outer waters. Visibility
restrictions in areas of rain and fog. Isolated thunderstorms.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Wednesday Night: Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30
kt and a low risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening
across the southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of
rain showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with minimum RH values of 15 to 25 percent away
from the immediate coast are expected today. South to southwest
winds will gust up to 15 to 20 mph with some brief gusts up to
25 mph possible this afternoon.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ231-232-235-237-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241345
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
945 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control today will result in plenty of
sunshine and another mild afternoon. Low pressure approaching
from the southwest will bring a soaking rain to the region very
late tonight and Wednesday with localized heavy downpours. This
may result in some brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding.
Seasonable temperatures follow Thursday through Saturday with
mainly dry weather other than a few brief showers possible. A
brief cool down expected on Sunday, but this will be short lived
as unseasonably warm temperatures are possible by the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

945 PM Update...

Trends in the forecast remain on track for today. Strong high
pressure remains east of the region resulting in south/southwest
flow. Aloft, ridge axis remains over the region as moisture from
the Carolinas begins to stream into the area. This will
increase high level cloud cover, especially during the late
afternoon.

Temperatures have been on the rise early this morning with FIT
already coming in at 60F. Because mixing will increase moreso
then originally thought, believe that a run at the low 70`s is
possible esp across the Merrimack Valley. Gusts will increase
to near 20 MPH by the afternoon dropping RH values to below 25
percent (away from the coast). An SPS for fire weather interest
have been issued as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...

As the high shifts E, low pressure will develop near Chesapeake
Bay and the Delmarva peninsula. This will cause winds to back
to SE and start to increase. Noting a good low level moisture
feed setting up with the developing SE fetch from the western
Atlantic, which will moisten up the airmass.

Will see area of rain to lift NE into western areas by around
midnight, then steadily shifts E overnight. Swath of PWAT
moisture on the order of 1 to 1.2 inches works across the region
with the onshore flow. POPs approach categorical across most
areas by daybreak. Best lift remains S and W of the region, so
will see light rainfall, up to 0.2 inches across the lower CT
valley by 12Z.

With increasing clouds and dewpoints across the region, will see
temps only bottom out in the 40s.

Wednesday...

Low pressure will hug the NJ/DE coast during the day, keeping a
steady SE moisture feed working across the region. All models
signal a good slug of rainfall moving across, especially across
central and western areas. May see up to 0.5 to 1 inches of
rainfall, with a good shot of a bit more across the eastern
slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills with a good
upslope feed.

Also noting very good instability axis crossing the region
during the day as the low approaches with K indices to the
lower 30s, LI values of zero to -1 and Total Totals around 50.
Have continued to mention isolated thunder. With the convection,
could see locally heavy downpours that may produce urban and
poor drainage flooding.

Rather strong SE low level jet, on order of 55-60 kt, but some
question how much of this will mix down. May see some of this
mix down along the S coast Wed afternoon, with gusts up to 25-35
kt possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Scattered showers Wed night with an isolated t-storm possible

* Mainly dry+seasonable Thu/Fri/Sat other than a few brief showers

* Dry and a bit cooler Sun with moderating temperatures by Mon

* Unseasonably warm temps may arrive by the middle of next week

Details...

Wednesday night...

The deeper moisture and forcing will push east of the region
Wednesday evening, bringing an end to the widespread rain.
However, upper level energy remaining west of the region coupled
with surface boundary will result in scattered showers
persisting well into the night. In fact...there is enough
elevated instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Low
temps will drop mainly into the upper 40s to around 50 and areas
of fog are also anticipated.

Thursday...

Drier mid level air will be working into the region from the west
allowing for partial sunshine.  Given the mild start high temps
should reach well into the 60s in most locales.  Mainly dry weather
anticipated...but shortwave/cold pool aloft will move across central
and northern New England. We should be on the southern fringe of its
main impacts...but given cold pool aloft a few brief showers are
possible with the greatest risk north of MA turnpike.

Friday and Saturday...

Overall...seasonable weather continues for late April.  While most
of this period will feature dry weather, it is possible a wave of
low pressure brings a brief period of showers late Friday if it
tracks close enough to the coast. Greatest risk for this will be
across southeast New England.  As for Sat...while most of the time
will be dry a cold front may bring a few passing showers Sat
afternoon and evening.  Highs Fri and Sat will mainly be in the 60s.

Sunday and Monday...

Dry weather behind the cold front with somewhat cooler weather Sun.
Still a pleasant day though with highs mainly in the 50s to perhaps
a few locales near 60 across southeast New England.  After a cool
start early Monday morning with many locales dipping down into the
30s...highs should recover into the 60s Monday afternoon as rising
height fields begin the warming trend.  In fact...much of our long
range guidance is showing the potential for unseasonable warmth by
the middle of next week with upper level ridging building over the
eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...VFR. Prevailing wind from the S-SW, increasing to
to between 10 and 15 kt by midday with a few gusts to 25 knots.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Patches of MVFR conditions after
midnight, with local IFR possible towards daybreak across CT
valley. -RA moving across the area by around midnight across
the CT valley, then shifting E after midnight.

Wednesday...Conditions lower to IFR from W-E by midday, with
local LIFR possible along S coastal terminals. SE wind gusts up
to 25-30 kt across Cape Cod and the islands Wed afternoon.
Isolated TSRA. LLWS along S coast Wed afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low risk for possible
brief sea breeze late morning to midday today before S-SW winds
increase.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt across southeast New England coast during the
evening with some LLWS. SCT SHRA, areas BR, isolated TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...High confidence.
S-SW wind increasing with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 feet or less.

Tonight...High confidence.
Winds shift to SE and gusts up to 25 kt. Small craft advisories
have been issued. Seas build to 5 ft on the southern outer
coastal waters late. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog.
Rain developing after midnight from W-E.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
SE winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Low risk of Gale force gusts on
the eastern outer waters Wed afternoon. Seas build to 6 to 12
feet, highest on the southern outer waters. Visibility
restrictions in areas of rain and fog. Isolated thunderstorms.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Wednesday Night: Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30
kt and a low risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening
across the southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of
rain showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with minimum RH values of 15 to 25 percent away
from the immediate coast are expected today. South to southwest
winds will gust up to 15 to 20 mph with some brief gusts up to
25 mph possible this afternoon.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ231-232-235-237-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Frank
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241345
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
945 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control today will result in plenty of
sunshine and another mild afternoon. Low pressure approaching
from the southwest will bring a soaking rain to the region very
late tonight and Wednesday with localized heavy downpours. This
may result in some brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding.
Seasonable temperatures follow Thursday through Saturday with
mainly dry weather other than a few brief showers possible. A
brief cool down expected on Sunday, but this will be short lived
as unseasonably warm temperatures are possible by the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

945 PM Update...

Trends in the forecast remain on track for today. Strong high
pressure remains east of the region resulting in south/southwest
flow. Aloft, ridge axis remains over the region as moisture from
the Carolinas begins to stream into the area. This will
increase high level cloud cover, especially during the late
afternoon.

Temperatures have been on the rise early this morning with FIT
already coming in at 60F. Because mixing will increase moreso
then originally thought, believe that a run at the low 70`s is
possible esp across the Merrimack Valley. Gusts will increase
to near 20 MPH by the afternoon dropping RH values to below 25
percent (away from the coast). An SPS for fire weather interest
have been issued as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...

As the high shifts E, low pressure will develop near Chesapeake
Bay and the Delmarva peninsula. This will cause winds to back
to SE and start to increase. Noting a good low level moisture
feed setting up with the developing SE fetch from the western
Atlantic, which will moisten up the airmass.

Will see area of rain to lift NE into western areas by around
midnight, then steadily shifts E overnight. Swath of PWAT
moisture on the order of 1 to 1.2 inches works across the region
with the onshore flow. POPs approach categorical across most
areas by daybreak. Best lift remains S and W of the region, so
will see light rainfall, up to 0.2 inches across the lower CT
valley by 12Z.

With increasing clouds and dewpoints across the region, will see
temps only bottom out in the 40s.

Wednesday...

Low pressure will hug the NJ/DE coast during the day, keeping a
steady SE moisture feed working across the region. All models
signal a good slug of rainfall moving across, especially across
central and western areas. May see up to 0.5 to 1 inches of
rainfall, with a good shot of a bit more across the eastern
slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills with a good
upslope feed.

Also noting very good instability axis crossing the region
during the day as the low approaches with K indices to the
lower 30s, LI values of zero to -1 and Total Totals around 50.
Have continued to mention isolated thunder. With the convection,
could see locally heavy downpours that may produce urban and
poor drainage flooding.

Rather strong SE low level jet, on order of 55-60 kt, but some
question how much of this will mix down. May see some of this
mix down along the S coast Wed afternoon, with gusts up to 25-35
kt possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Scattered showers Wed night with an isolated t-storm possible

* Mainly dry+seasonable Thu/Fri/Sat other than a few brief showers

* Dry and a bit cooler Sun with moderating temperatures by Mon

* Unseasonably warm temps may arrive by the middle of next week

Details...

Wednesday night...

The deeper moisture and forcing will push east of the region
Wednesday evening, bringing an end to the widespread rain.
However, upper level energy remaining west of the region coupled
with surface boundary will result in scattered showers
persisting well into the night. In fact...there is enough
elevated instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Low
temps will drop mainly into the upper 40s to around 50 and areas
of fog are also anticipated.

Thursday...

Drier mid level air will be working into the region from the west
allowing for partial sunshine.  Given the mild start high temps
should reach well into the 60s in most locales.  Mainly dry weather
anticipated...but shortwave/cold pool aloft will move across central
and northern New England. We should be on the southern fringe of its
main impacts...but given cold pool aloft a few brief showers are
possible with the greatest risk north of MA turnpike.

Friday and Saturday...

Overall...seasonable weather continues for late April.  While most
of this period will feature dry weather, it is possible a wave of
low pressure brings a brief period of showers late Friday if it
tracks close enough to the coast. Greatest risk for this will be
across southeast New England.  As for Sat...while most of the time
will be dry a cold front may bring a few passing showers Sat
afternoon and evening.  Highs Fri and Sat will mainly be in the 60s.

Sunday and Monday...

Dry weather behind the cold front with somewhat cooler weather Sun.
Still a pleasant day though with highs mainly in the 50s to perhaps
a few locales near 60 across southeast New England.  After a cool
start early Monday morning with many locales dipping down into the
30s...highs should recover into the 60s Monday afternoon as rising
height fields begin the warming trend.  In fact...much of our long
range guidance is showing the potential for unseasonable warmth by
the middle of next week with upper level ridging building over the
eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...VFR. Prevailing wind from the S-SW, increasing to
to between 10 and 15 kt by midday with a few gusts to 25 knots.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Patches of MVFR conditions after
midnight, with local IFR possible towards daybreak across CT
valley. -RA moving across the area by around midnight across
the CT valley, then shifting E after midnight.

Wednesday...Conditions lower to IFR from W-E by midday, with
local LIFR possible along S coastal terminals. SE wind gusts up
to 25-30 kt across Cape Cod and the islands Wed afternoon.
Isolated TSRA. LLWS along S coast Wed afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low risk for possible
brief sea breeze late morning to midday today before S-SW winds
increase.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt across southeast New England coast during the
evening with some LLWS. SCT SHRA, areas BR, isolated TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...High confidence.
S-SW wind increasing with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 feet or less.

Tonight...High confidence.
Winds shift to SE and gusts up to 25 kt. Small craft advisories
have been issued. Seas build to 5 ft on the southern outer
coastal waters late. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog.
Rain developing after midnight from W-E.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
SE winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Low risk of Gale force gusts on
the eastern outer waters Wed afternoon. Seas build to 6 to 12
feet, highest on the southern outer waters. Visibility
restrictions in areas of rain and fog. Isolated thunderstorms.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Wednesday Night: Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30
kt and a low risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening
across the southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of
rain showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with minimum RH values of 15 to 25 percent away
from the immediate coast are expected today. South to southwest
winds will gust up to 15 to 20 mph with some brief gusts up to
25 mph possible this afternoon.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter serving Providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving Hyannis is back in service.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ231-232-235-237-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Frank
EQUIPMENT...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241341
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
941 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly winds today will bring in the warmest air of the
spring, though that is not saying much. Either way highs
climbing into the upper 60s to near 70 will feel very welcomed.
Onshore flow near the coast will keep those readings on the
cooler side. As we head into Wednesday unsettled weather
returns with the approach of our next storm system. Rain will
overspread the area from the southwest in the morning and work
northeast. A good soaking rain is expected for most of the
region. This system will slowly exit the region Thursday. A cold
front on Saturday will bring colder air back into the area, with
a freeze possible by Sunday morning for much of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
940 am Update: Some high clouds spilling across the upper ridge
at this time but still mostly sunny conditions. Temps on track
to be the warmest day so far this year over all but coastal
areas due to developing seabreezes.

Previous Discussion:
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...Once again with models forecasting mixed
layer growth to H8...I expect we should do a little better than
that. Mixing down temps of +5 to +7 means we will make another
run at 70...and should see those readings a little more common
today. Increasing southerly flow will mean that near the
Seacoast and deeper into Midcoast ME and the Capital Region will
see high temps early in the day before colder marine air works
inland. I used a blend of higher res guidance to show this
afternoon trend.

The other concern for this afternoon is fire danger. Temps will
be warm again...and with dewpoints not increasing much it should
mean another day with minimum RH values in the teens. Winds do
increase slightly today as well...with return flow around 15 mph
at times. So fire danger will be elevated...but not quite enough
for a headline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight will see return flow continue and increasing
clouds...so readings will be milder than the past few nights. I
expect the bulk of the precip to hold off until around 8 AM
Wed...as it moves in from the SW. With PWAT values some 2
standard deviations above normal...and a modest SEly
LLJ...precip should be widespread and moderate to heavy at
times. The good news is that it will be fairly progressive...and
moving out late in the day. With precip ongoing for much of the
day...high temps will be back on the cool side again. Highs
should struggle into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low currently over the Tennessee Valley will slowly make
its way toward the East Coast and be pulled northward toward
New England on Wednesday in response to a northern stream
trough. This will be our biggest precipitation maker of the
forecast. While this low does pull northeast into the Canadian
Atlantic, more troughs drop in through the central United
States, carving out a broader trough which will be with us into
the first part of next week, while also opening up the door to
some colder air from the Arctic dropping down into our area this
weekend.

Low pressure moves through the area Wednesday night, with
heavier rain falling ahead of the low in an onshore flow with a
tropical connection. Could see some widespread fog as well as
the moist air mass moves over the cold Gulf of Maine and
condenses over northern New England. The band of persistent rain
should shift east into eastern Maine Thursday morning, while the
cold upper low moves in from the west, bringing more scattered
showers with some terrain enhancement.

Brief ridging moves by Friday morning, bringing a break from the
precipitation and a chance for the sun to warm things up into
the low 60s again. But another trough rotating around the
periphery of the larger developing upper trough may bring some
light rain Friday afternoon into Friday night mainly closer to
the coast. Yesterday at this time, the GFS was alone in
developing this wave into a noticeable surface low with
precipitation affecting our area, but now the CMC has jumped on
board as well. Even the ECMWF, while not focusing a surface low
like the others, does still bring the wave close enough that its
broader flow pattern still supports the idea. Thus have
added/increased rain chances during this time period, though it
should be fairly light.

While the first periphery wave shoots off to the northeast on
Saturday, a cold upper trough will be moving in out of the Great
Lakes. This will bring a surge of colder air into the region
along with a chance of showers as it destabilizes the low levels
of the atmosphere. The brunt of this cold will be felt on Sunday
and Sunday night when freezing temperatures will be possible
area wide, especially if the surface high is able to build in
during the night.

Subsident northwest flow on Monday will keep things dry but
gradually warming as an upper ridge pokes in from the west. This
could bring us a bit warmer temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions thru most of tonight. RA moves in
from the SW late tonight and spreads NEwd. Areas of IFR expected
in RA during the day Wed.

Long Term...LIFR conditions expected along the coastal plain in
rain and fog Wednesday night, exiting to the east Thursday
morning. Conditions on the other side of the mountains will be a
little better, but still possibly IFR. Conditions improve a bit
on Thursday, but afternoon showers will bring variable
conditions especially in the north and west. Should see a break
of VFR conditions Thursday night into Friday, but a low moving
near the coast could bring some IFR conditions and light rain
Friday evening into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
today. Increasing onshore flow Wed will allow winds and seas to
build to SCA thresholds...especially later in the day.

Long Term...Onshore south to southeast flow peaks Wednesday
night probably right around 30 KT before a shift to the west on
Thursday. The onshore flow will bring higher wave heights,
generally 5 to 9 FT with the highest in the central Gulf of
Maine waters. Winds weaken as they turn westerly on Thursday,
with waves taking a bit longer to subside, possibly staying
above 5 FT through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire danger is possible today as temps climb even
higher than yesterday. Dewpoints will not increase much...which
means more minimum RH values in the teens. S winds will increase
today too...into the 15 mph range...so we may approach but stay
just below red flag conditions. Cooler temps but stronger winds
are expected near the coast...which may just trade off to keep
the fire danger elevated there as well. Widespread wetting rain
is expected Wed to diminish the fire danger.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$





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