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000
FXUS61 KPHI 191344
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
944 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry frontal boundary will move toward the area tonight into
early Friday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control of the
weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend. A
frontal boundary is forecast to affect the area early next week,
bringing a return of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid morning surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure
over the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. This high was weakened
and shifted south of our area over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, a
cold front was located over the Upper Midwest, stretching
southwestward into the Central Plains. The cold front will approach
from the west as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley this afternoon.

GOES-16 water vapor satellite imagery (CHs 8-10) show a weak
shortwave trough aloft passing thru the region this morning. Other
than thin cirrus streaming across the area, this system will have no
other impacts on our sensible weather today.

The warm sector will clearly be established over the region today
with southwesterly flow continuing ahead of the cold front. High
temperatures were tweaked upward by a couple of degrees for the mid
morning ESTF update and reflects a warmer solution than any
guidance. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s across most of the
area, except cooler in the higher elevations of NE PA/NW NJ and
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Weak surface cold front passes through the region tonight. With
a lack of moisture and no upper level support, conditions will
be dry with its passage. Outside of some evening cirrus, skies
should clear out after midnight.

Surface high pressure reestablishes itself over the
Appalachians after midnight.

Some patchy ground fog is possible prior to the passage of the
cold front. Dew points will fall behind the passage of the
front.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to around 50. Lows in the
Philly metro area will be in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected for the end of this week into the
weekend as high pressure will be in control of the weather
through the end of the week before moving offshore for Sunday
and Monday.

Ridging aloft builds across the area late this week into the
weekend, which will help keep temperatures several degrees above
normal. As the surface high and ridge aloft moves offshore
Sunday, return flow and southwest flow aloft develops. This will
help increase clouds, but no precipitation is expected through
Sunday.

As we go into Sunday, an area of low pressure is forecast to
develop near the Lower Mississippi Valley along a frontal
boundary located across the central part of the country. It is
then expected to strengthen as it moves northward along the
frontal boundary and toward the Great Lakes Monday night into
Tuesday. The front is expected to move toward our area Tuesday
into Tuesday night, although there is some timing differences
between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS pushes the front through
quicker, moving the precip through Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The ECMWF slowly moves the front through slower, keeping precip
across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For now,
we have the greatest chances for precipitation Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR through the TAF period. Patchy ground fog with brief MVFR
VSBY is possible from around 04-12Z Friday.

SW winds less than 10 KT, becoming less than 5 KT tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Friday-Monday...VFR conditions expected. Winds may gust around
15 knots Friday, Sunday, and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds 5-10 KT, increasing to 10-15 KT with gusts to 20 KT
this afternoon on the Atlantic coastal waters. Winds shift to
the NW tonight after the passage of a cold front. Seas will
generally be around 3 ft on the coastal waters and 2 ft or less
in the Delaware Bay...predominately in a SE swell of 9 or 10
seconds.

OUTLOOK...

Friday-Monday...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Klein/Robertson/MPS
Marine...Klein/Robertson/MPS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190733
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry frontal boundary will move toward the area tonight into
early Friday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control of the
weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend. A
frontal boundary is forecast to affect the area early next week,
bringing a return of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad high pressure lies from the Southeast U.S. across the
Mid- Atlantic region and then into the western Atlantic. The
high will sink southward today as an upper trough and several
mid-level shortwaves pass through the region.

After some patchy early morning fog, conditions will clear out
late this morning and through today. Some cirrus is possible
with the passage of the trough, but conditions will otherwise be
dry and sunny. Meanwhile, a weak cold front currently over the
Great Lakes will continue to track east throughout the day.

WAA will be underway today with rising heights/thicknesses, and
highs today should end up a degree or so warmer than Wednesday,
with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Weak surface cold front passes through the region tonight. With
a lack of moisture and no upper level support, conditions will
be dry with its passage. Outside of some evening cirrus, skies
should clear out after midnight.

Surface high pressure reestablishes itself over the
Appalachians after midnight.

Some patchy ground fog is possible prior to the passage of the
cold front. Dew points will fall behind the passage of the
front.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to around 50. Lows in the
Philly metro area will be in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected for the end of this week into the
weekend as high pressure will be in control of the weather
through the end of the week before moving offshore for Sunday
and Monday.

Ridging aloft builds across the area late this week into the
weekend, which will help keep temperatures several degrees above
normal. As the surface high and ridge aloft moves offshore
Sunday, return flow and southwest flow aloft develops. This will
help increase clouds, but no precipitation is expected through
Sunday.

As we go into Sunday, an area of low pressure is forecast to
develop near the Lower Mississippi Valley along a frontal
boundary located across the central part of the country. It is
then expected to strengthen as it moves northward along the
frontal boundary and toward the Great Lakes Monday night into
Tuesday. The front is expected to move toward our area Tuesday
into Tuesday night, although there is some timing differences
between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS pushes the front through
quicker, moving the precip through Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The ECMWF slowly moves the front through slower, keeping precip
across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For now,
we have the greatest chances for precipitation Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Some patchy ground fog with MVFR VSBY is possible from 09-12Z
at KABE/KMIV/KACY. Otherwise, VFR through the TAF period. Patchy
ground fog with brief MVFR VSBY is possible once again from
around 02-10Z Friday.

SW winds less than 10 KT, becoming less than 5 KT tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Friday-Monday...VFR conditions expected. Winds may gust around
15 knots Friday, Sunday, and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds 5-10 KT, increasing to 10-15 KT with gusts to 20 KT
this afternoon on the Atlantic coastal waters. Winds shift to
the NW tonight after the passage of a cold front. Seas will
generally be around 3 ft on the coastal waters and 2 ft or less
in the Delaware Bay...mostly a se swell of 9 or 10 seconds.

OUTLOOK...

Friday-Monday...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson/MPS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190411
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1211 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A weak dry frontal boundary
should move through our area Thursday into Friday. A stronger
cold front and low pressure moving along it, will bring
unsettled conditions for later Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure remains over the mid-Atlantic region. However,
this high will undergo gradual weakening tonight as an upstream
shortwave trough approaches from the Ohio Valley.

Light WAA continues tonight under light SW flow. Dewpoints will
gradually creep up through the 40s, approaching 50 by daybreak.
Temperatures will gradually fall to the dewpoint, and as a
result, patchy shallow ground fog is likely to develop away from
the urban centers in the pre-dawn hours.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s and low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure sinks southward toward the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
Modest pressure (height) falls at the surface (aloft) occurs across
the northern mid-Atlantic region as a weak upper shortwave trough
and surface cold front progress eastward.

The aforementioned cold front will trail the upper trough enough to
remain upstream of the forecast area through the period. The setup
will allow us to remain situated in the pre-frontal warm sector and
for this warming trend to continue into tomorrow. Sided closer to
the warmer MAV guidance for temperatures, yielding forecast highs in
the lower to middle 70s (except cooler in the higher elevations of
NE PA-NW NJ).

Filtered sunshine with high clouds during the morning will give way
to sunny skies by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SW winds 5-10 mph in the
morning are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night thru Monday...High pressure at the surface and
aloft will be in control of the weather with fair weather
expected. Temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Monday night thru Wednesday...A pattern change with a sharp h5
trough moving into the ern part of the country. Low pressure
and a slow moving front associated with the upper trough will
affect the area with occasional rains. Locally heavy rains are
possible with an upper trough beginning to take a negative tilt
as it crosses the area. The 12Z NA models are showing QPF
totals generally in the 1 to 3 inch range across the area for
the period Mon_Wed. The higher totals are across the wrn
counties. Much colder temperatures will be ushered in behind
the system with below normal temperatures for the middle part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Generally VFR through Thursday. However, patchy ground fog may
develop at the fog-prone, rural TAF sites between 05Z-11Z
Thursday which could result in a brief period of MVFR visibility.
Confidence in fog development was too low to mention in the 00z
TAFs except at MIV.

Light southwest winds tonight, increasing to 8-15 kt in the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night thru Monday...VFR expected thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW winds 5-10 kt will continue tonight and Thursday morning,
then increase 10-15 kt across the coastal Atlantic waters during
the afternoon. Wind field may become locally enhanced to 15-20
kt off the coast of Ocean and Monmouth Counties via Ambrose jet
late in the day. Held off on a SCA at this juncture since poor
mixing profiles should inhibit higher winds aloft to reach the
surface. Accordingly, capped gusts below 25 kt.

Seas will generally be around 3 ft in the coastal waters and 2 ft or
less in the Delaware Bay...mostly a se swell of 9 or 10 seconds.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night...Near SCA winds across the nrn NJ coastal waters Thu
    evening, but not confid enough for a flag attm. Fair.
Friday thru Sunday...Sub- SCA conditions thru the period with
    fair weather.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**Top 5 warmest October on record for PHL and ABE appears likely
 and its virtually certain a top 10 warmest October for all of
 our forecast area**

Todays max/min plus the Mount Holly 330 PM Wednesday fcst for
the next 7 days, the D8-11 GFS 2m max/min temps and then normal
temps the last 3 days of the month results in the following.

PHL 63.5 degrees or 6 degrees above the October 30 year avg of
57.5. This again pegs PHL for a tie as #2 warmest October on
record.

1. 64.5 2007

2. 63.5 1971 (2017?)

3. 62.7 1947

To drop out of the top 10 warmest the PHL avg would have to lower
to 61.2 degrees (a 2.4 degree drop from the current projection).
Based on the 12z/18 ensembles both GEFS/NAEFS and ECEFS...this
will not happen unless todays ensembles completely miss the last
3 days of the month. So while a record is probably out of reach,
a top 5 ranking is likely.

ABE 59.5 or 7 degrees above the 30 year avg of 52.5. This also
projects a tie for #2 warmest October.

1. 60.8 2007

2. 59.5 1984 and possibly 2017?

3. 59.3 1947

4. 58.8 1971

For Allentown to drop out of the top 10, the projected avg
would have to lower to 57.2 or a drop of 2.3 degrees from the
current projection. Again, thats highly unlikely unless something
very unusual and not currently ensembled occurs the last 3 days
of the month.

It should be pointed out that the D8-14 fcst from the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) .. is for an overall average of above
normal temperatures during the last week of the month. We are on
the edge of the transition to cold that will be quite noticeable
in the nations midsection next week. Uphill (southwest flow at
500MB and the trough axis constantly between 80 and degrees west
Longitude [Appalachians or west] during the most intense phase
of the troughing makes it difficult for cold air to cross the
mountains into our area.


Now a moment to share some information from a new tool recently
available to us...

The last two years in PHL 10/15-10/17/17 is the warmest in the
period of record...averaging 3 degrees above normal.

Ditto Allentown,,averaging 3.7 degrees above normal!

Ditto ILG...averaging 2.5 above normal.

We will look at all of this again either Saturday or Sunday
morning.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Drag/Klein/MPS
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/Klein/O`Hara
Marine...Drag/Klein/O`Hara
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190134
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A weak dry frontal boundary
should move through our area Thursday into Friday. A stronger
cold front and low pressure moving along it, will bring
unsettled conditions for later Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: Minor changes to the overnight temps and dews as we
work through varying rates of temperature drops (via decoupling) in
this essentially very dry airmass. Added more patchy fog via the
UPS crossover tool for nw NJ and ne PA.


High pressure remains over the mid-Atlantic region. However, this
high will undergo gradual weakening tonight as an upstream shortwave
trough approaches from the Ohio Valley.

This upper shortwave trough will be associated with increasing high
clouds responsible prior to its arrival. Do not anticipate these
clouds to have a significant impact on radiational cooling given the
high base of the cirrus. Accordingly, temperatures for the most
part were lowering rather quickly this evening as the boundary
layer decouples and winds become calm in the countryside.
Compared to recent nights, higher dewpoints tonight will (1)
raise the floor for how low temperatures can bottom out, (2)
inhibit frost formation and (3) increase the risk for radiational
fog. At this point, am skeptical to think fog will be much more
than patchy in coverage and shallow in depth (mainly ground
fog). Forecast lows range from the upper 30s/lower 40s in the
sheltered valleys of NE PA/NW NJ and the NJ Pine Barrens to the
lower 50s for the urban I-95 cities and along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure sinks southward toward the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
Modest pressure (height) falls at the surface (aloft) occurs across
the northern mid-Atlantic region as a weak upper shortwave trough
and surface cold front progress eastward.

The aforementioned cold front will trail the upper trough enough to
remain upstream of the forecast area through the period. The setup
will allow us to remain situated in the pre-frontal warm sector and
for this warming trend to continue into tomorrow. Sided closer to
the warmer MAV guidance for temperatures, yielding forecast highs in
the lower to middle 70s (except cooler in the higher elevations of
NE PA-NW NJ).

Filtered sunshine with high clouds during the morning will give way
to sunny skies by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SW winds 5-10 mph in the
morning are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night thru Monday...High pressure at the surface and
aloft will be in control of the weather with fair weather
expected. Temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Monday night thru Wednesday...A pattern change with a sharp h5
trough moving into the ern part of the country. Low pressure
and a slow moving front associated with the upper trough will
affect the area with occasional rains. Locally heavy rains are
possible with an upper trough beginning to take a negative tilt
as it crosses the area. The 12Z NA models are showing QPF
totals generally in the 1 to 3 inch range across the area for
the period Mon_Wed. The higher totals are across the wrn
counties. Much colder temperatures will be ushered in behind
the system with below normal temperatures for the middle part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Generally VFR through Thursday. However, patchy ground fog may
develop at the fog-prone, rural TAF sites between 05Z-11Z
Thursday which could result in a brief period of MVFR visibility.
Confidence in fog development was too low to mention in the 00z
TAFs except at MIV.

Light southwest winds tonight, increasing to 8-15 kt in the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night thru Monday...VFR expected thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW winds 5-10 kt will continue tonight and Thursday morning,
then increase 10-15 kt across the coastal Atlantic waters during
the afternoon. Wind field may become locally enhanced to 15-20
kt off the coast of Ocean and Monmouth Counties via Ambrose jet
late in the day. Held off on a SCA at this juncture since poor
mixing profiles should inhibit higher winds aloft to reach the
surface. Accordingly, capped gusts below 25 kt.

Seas will generally be around 3 ft in the coastal waters and 2 ft or
less in the Delaware Bay...mostly a se swell of 9 or 10 seconds.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night...Near SCA winds across the nrn NJ coastal waters Thu
    evening, but not confid enough for a flag attm. Fair.
Friday thru Sunday...Sub- SCA conditions thru the period with
    fair weather.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**Top 5 warmest October on record for PHL and ABE appears likely
 and its virtually certain a top 10 warmest October for all of
 our forecast area**

Todays max/min plus the Mount Holly 330 PM Wednesday fcst for
the next 7 days, the D8-11 GFS 2m max/min temps and then normal
temps the last 3 days of the month results in the following.

PHL 63.5 degrees or 6 degrees above the October 30 year avg of
57.5. This again pegs PHL for a tie as #2 warmest October on
record.

1. 64.5 2007

2. 63.5 1971 (2017?)

3. 62.7 1947

To drop out of the top 10 warmest the PHL avg would have to lower
to 61.2 degrees (a 2.4 degree drop from the current projection).
Based on the 12z/18 ensembles both GEFS/NAEFS and ECEFS...this
will not happen unless todays ensembles completely miss the last
3 days of the month. So while a record is probably out of reach,
a top 5 ranking is likely.

ABE 59.5 or 7 degrees above the 30 year avg of 52.5. This also
projects a tie for #2 warmest October.

1. 60.8 2007

2. 59.5 1984 and possibly 2017?

3. 59.3 1947

4. 58.8 1971

For Allentown to drop out of the top 10, the projected avg
would have to lower to 57.2 or a drop of 2.3 degrees from the
current projection. Again, thats highly unlikely unless something
very unusual and not currently ensembled occurs the last 3 days
of the month.

It should be pointed out that the D8-14 fcst from the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) .. is for an overall average of above
normal temperatures during the last week of the month. We are on
the edge of the transition to cold that will be quite noticeable
in the nations midsection next week. Uphill (southwest flow at
500MB and the trough axis constantly between 80 and degrees west
Longitude [Appalachians or west] during the most intense phase
of the troughing makes it difficult for cold air to cross the
mountains into our area.


Now a moment to share some information from a new tool recently
available to us...

The last two years in PHL 10/15-10/17/17 is the warmest in the
period of record...averaging 3 degrees above normal.

Ditto Allentown,,averaging 3.7 degrees above normal!

Ditto ILG...averaging 2.5 above normal.

We will look at all of this again either Saturday or Sunday
morning.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Drag/Klein 934
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/Klein/O`Hara 934
Marine...Drag/Klein/O`Hara 934
Climate...934




000
FXUS61 KPHI 182241
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
641 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A front and low pressure
moving along it will bring unsettled conditions for later Monday
into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: Minor changes to the evening temps and dewpoints,
otrw no changes.

High pressure remains over the mid-Atlantic region. However, this
high will undergo gradual weakening tonight as an upstream shortwave
trough approaches from the Ohio Valley.

This upper shortwave trough will be associated with increasing high
clouds responsible prior to its arrival. Do not anticipate these
clouds to have a significant impact on radiational cooling given the
high base of the cirrus. Accordingly, temperatures should drop
rather quickly this evening once the boundary layer decouples and
winds become calm. Compared to recent nights, higher dewpoints
tonight will (1) raise the floor for how low temperatures can bottom
out, (2) inhibit frost formation and (3) increase the risk for
radiational fog. At this point, am skeptical to think fog will be
much more than patchy in coverage and shallow in depth (mainly
ground fog). Forecast lows range from the upper 30s/lower 40s in the
sheltered valleys of NE PA/NW NJ and the NJ Pine Barrens to the
lower 50s for the urban I-95 cities and along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure sinks southward toward the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
Modest pressure (height) falls at the surface (aloft) occurs across
the northern mid-Atlantic region as a weak upper shortwave trough
and surface cold front progress eastward.

The aforementioned cold front will trail the upper trough enough to
remain upstream of the forecast area through the period. The setup
will allow us to remain situated in the pre-frontal warm sector and
for this warming trend to continue into tomorrow. Sided closer to
the warmer MAV guidance for temperatures, yielding forecast highs in
the lower to middle 70s (except cooler in the higher elevations of
NE PA-NW NJ).

Filtered sunshine with high clouds during the morning will give way
to sunny skies by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SW winds 5-10 mph in the
morning are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night thru Monday...High pressure at the surface and
aloft will be in control of the weather with fair weather
expected. Temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Monday night thru Wednesday...A pattern change with a sharp h5
trough moving into the ern part of the country. Low pressure
and a slow moving front associated with the upper trough will
affect the area with occasional rains. Locally heavy rains are
possible with an upper trough beginning to take a negative tilt
as it crosses the area. The 12Z NA models are showing QPF
totals generally in the 1 to 3 inch range across the area for
the period Mon_Wed. The higher totals are across the wrn
counties. Much colder temperatures will be ushered in behind
the system with below normal temperatures for the middle part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Generally VFR through Thursday. However, patchy ground fog may
develop at the fog-prone, rural TAF sites between 05Z-11Z
Thursday which could result in a brief period of MVFR visibility.
Confidence in fog development was too low to mention in 18Z
TAFs except at MIV.

Light southwest winds tonight, increasing too 8-15 kt in the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night thru Monday...VFR expected thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...

S-SW winds 5-10 kt will continue tonight and Thursday morning,
then increase 10-15 kt across the coastal Atlantic waters during
the afternoon. Wind field may become locally enhanced to 15-20
kt off the coast of Ocean and Monmouth Counties via Ambrose jet
late in the day. Held off on a SCA at this juncture since poor
mixing profiles should inhibit higher winds aloft to reach the
surface. Accordingly, capped gusts below 25 kt.

Seas will generally be around 3 ft in the coastal waters and 2 ft or
less in the Delaware Bay...mostly a se swell of 9 or 10 seconds.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night...Near SCA winds across the nrn NJ coastal waters Thu
    evening, but not confid enough for a flag attm. Fair.
Friday thru Sunday...Sub- SCA conditions thru the period with
    fair weather.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**Top 5 warmest October on record for PHL and ABE appears likely
 and its virtually certain a top 10 warmest October for all of
 our forecast area**

Todays max/min plus the Mount Holly 330 PM fcst for the next 7
days, adding on day8-11 from FTPRHA GFS 2m max/min temps and
then normal the last 3 days of the month results in the
following.

PHL 63.5 degrees or 6 degrees above the October 30 year avg of
57.5. This again pegs PHL for a tie as #2 warmest October on
record.

1. 64.5 2007

2. 63.5 1971 (2017?)

3. 62.7 1947

To drop out of the top 10 warmest the PHL avg would have to lower
to 61.2 degrees (a 2.4 degree drop from the current projection).
Based on the 12z/18 ensembles both GEFS/NAEFS and ECEFS...this
will not happen unless todays ensembles completely miss the last
3 days of the month. So while a record is probably out of reach
top 5 is likely.

ABE 59.5 or 7 degrees above the 30 year avg of 52.5. This also
ties for #2.

1. 60.8 2007

2. 59.5 1984 and possibly 2017?

3. 59.3 1947

4. 58.8 1971

For Allentown to drop out of the top 10, the projected avg
would have to lower to 57.2 or a drop of 2.3 degrees from the
current projection. Again, thats highly unlikely unless something
very unusual and not currently ensembled occurs the last 3 days
of the month.

It should be pointed out that the D8-14 fcst from the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) .. is for above normal temperatures for
the last week of the month. We are on the edge of the transition
to cold that will be quite noticeable in the nations midsection
next week. Uphill (southwest flow at 500MB and the trough axis
constantly Appalachians or west) makes it difficult for cold
air to cross the mountains into our area.

Now a moment to share some information from a new tool recently
available to us...

The last two years in PHL 10/15-10/17/17 is the warmest in the
period of record...averaging 3 degrees above normal.

Ditto Allentown,,averaging 3.7 degrees above normal!

Ditto ILG...averaging 2.5 above normal.

We will look at all of this again either Saturday or Sunday
morning.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Drag/Klein 640
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/Klein/O`Hara 640
Marine...Drag/Klein/O`Hara 640
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 182203
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
603 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A front and low pressure
moving along it will bring unsettled conditions for later Monday
into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure remains over the mid-Atlantic region. However, this
high will undergo gradual weakening tonight as an upstream shortwave
trough approaches from the Ohio Valley.

This upper shortwave trough will be associated with increasing high
clouds responsible prior to its arrival. Do not anticipate these
clouds to have a significant impact on radiational cooling given the
high base of the cirrus. Accordingly, temperatures should drop
rather quickly this evening once the boundary layer decouples and
winds become calm. Compared to recent nights, higher dewpoints
tonight will (1) raise the floor for how low temperatures can bottom
out, (2) inhibit frost formation and (3) increase the risk for
radiational fog. At this point, am skeptical to think fog will be
much more than patchy in coverage and shallow in depth (mainly
ground fog). Forecast lows range from the upper 30s/lower 40s in the
sheltered valleys of NE PA/NW NJ and the NJ Pine Barrens to the
lower 50s for the urban I-95 cities and along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure sinks southward toward the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
Modest pressure (height) falls at the surface (aloft) occurs across
the northern mid-Atlantic region as a weak upper shortwave trough
and surface cold front progress eastward.

The aforementioned cold front will trail the upper trough enough to
remain upstream of the forecast area through the period. The setup
will allow us to remain situated in the pre-frontal warm sector and
for this warming trend to continue into tomorrow. Sided closer to
the warmer MAV guidance for temperatures, yielding forecast highs in
the lower to middle 70s (except cooler in the higher elevations of
NE PA-NW NJ).

Filtered sunshine with high clouds during the morning will give way
to sunny skies by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SW winds 5-10 mph in the
morning are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night thru Monday...High pressure at the surface and
aloft will be in control of the weather with fair weather
expected. Temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Monday night thru Wednesday...A pattern change with a sharp h5
trough moving into the ern part of the country. Low pressure
and a slow moving front associated with the upper trough will
affect the area with occasional rains. Locally heavy rains are
possible with an upper trough beginning to take a negative tilt
as it crosses the area. The 12Z NA models are showing QPF
totals generally in the 1 to 3 inch range across the area for
the period Mon_Wed. The higher totals are across the wrn
counties. Much colder temperatures will be ushered in behind
the system with below normal temperatures for the middle part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Generally VFR Thursday. However, patchy ground fog may develop at
the fog-prone, rural TAF sites between 05Z-11Z Thursday which could
result in a brief period of MVFR visibility. Confidence in fog
development was too low to mention in 18Z TAFs except at MIV.

SW winds 5-8 kt this afternoon will diminish to 5 KT or less after
sunset this evening. SW winds continue on Thursday, gradually
increasing to from 5-8 kt in the morning to 8-15 kt in the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night thru Monday...VFR expected thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds this afternoon are generally from the W-SW between 5 and 10
kt. However, winds are backed locally out of the S in the nearshore
NJ waters owing to the formation of a sea breeze front. Winds may
briefly increase to 10-15 kt late this afternoon and early evening a
few miles farther off the NJ coast in association with an Ambrose
jet.

SW winds 5-10 kt will continue into tonight and Thursday morning,
then increase 10-15 kt across the coastal Atlantic waters during the
afternoon. Wind field may become locally enhanced to 15-20 kt off
the coast of Ocean and Monmouth Counties via Ambrose jet late in the
day. Held off on a SCA at this juncture since poor mixing profiles
should inhibit higher winds aloft to reach the surface. Accordingly,
capped gusts to below 25 kt.

Seas will generally be around 3 ft in the coastal waters and 2 ft or
less in the Delaware Bay.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night...Near SCA winds across the nrn NJ coastal waters Thu
    evening, but not confid enough for a flag attm. Fair.
Friday thru Sunday...Sub- SCA conditions thru the period with
    fair weather.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**Top 5 warmest October on record for PHL and ABE appears likely
  and virtually certain top 10 for all of our forecast area**

Running todays max/min plus the Mount Holly 330 PM fcst for the
next 7 days, adding on day8-11 from FTPRHA GFS 2m max/min temps
and then normal the last 3 days of the month results in the
following.

PHL 63.5 degrees or 6 degrees above the October 30 year avg of
57.5. This again pegs PHL for a tie as #2 warmest October on
record.

1. 64.5 2007

2. 63.5 1971 (2017?)

3. 62.7 1947

To drop out of the top 10 warmest the PHL avg would have to lower
to 61.2 degrees (a 2.4 degree drop from the current projection).
Based on the 12z/18 ensembles both GEFS/NAEFS and ECEFS...this
will not happen unless todays ensembles completely miss the last
3 days of the month. So while a record is probably out of reach
top 5 is likely.

ABE 59.5 or 7 degrees above the 30 year avg of 52.5. This also
ties for #2.

1. 60.8 2007

2. 59.5 1984 and possibly 2017

3. 59.3 1947

4. 58.8 1971

For Allentown to drop out of the top 10, the projected avg
would have to lower to 57.2 or a drop of 2.3 degrees from the
current projection. Again, thats highly unlikely unless
something very unusual and not currently ensembled occurs the
last 3 days of the month.

It should be pointed out that the D8-14 fcst from the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) .. is for above normal temperatures for
the last week of the month. We are on the edge of the transition
to cold that will be quite noticeable in the nations midsection
next week. Uphill (southwest flow at 500MB and the trough axis
constantly Appalachians or west) makes it difficult for cold
air to cross the mountains into our area.

Now a moment to share some information from a new tool recently
available to us...

The last two years in PHL 10/15-10/17/17 is the warmest in the
period of record...averaging 3 degrees above normal.

Ditto Allentown,,averaging 3.7 degrees above normal!

Ditto ILG...averaging 2.5 above normal.

We will look at all of this again either Saturday or Sunday
morning.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Klein/O`Hara
Marine...Klein/O`Hara
Climate...Drag 602




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181855
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
255 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A front and low pressure
moving along it will bring unsettled conditions for later Monday
into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the mid-Atlantic region. However, this
high will undergo gradual weakening tonight as an upstream shortwave
trough approaches from the Ohio Valley.

This upper shortwave trough will be associated with increasing high
clouds responsible prior to its arrival. Do not anticipate these
clouds to have a significant impact on radiational cooling given the
high base of the cirrus. Accordingly, temperatures should drop
rather quickly this evening once the boundary layer decouples and
winds become calm. Compared to recent nights, higher dewpoints
tonight will (1) raise the floor for how low temperatures can bottom
out, (2) inhibit frost formation and (3) increase the risk for
radiational fog. At this point, am skeptical to think fog will be
much more than patchy in coverage and shallow in depth (mainly
ground fog). Forecast lows range from the upper 30s/lower 40s in the
sheltered valleys of NE PA/NW NJ and the NJ Pine Barrens to the
lower 50s for the urban I-95 cities and along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure sinks southward toward the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
Modest pressure (height) falls at the surface (aloft) occurs across
the northern mid-Atlantic region as a weak upper shortwave trough
and surface cold front progress eastward.

The aforementioned cold front will trail the upper trough enough to
remain upstream of the forecast area through the period. The setup
will allow us to remain situated in the pre-frontal warm sector and
for this warming trend to continue into tomorrow. Sided closer to
the warmer MAV guidance for temperatures, yielding forecast highs in
the lower to middle 70s (except cooler in the higher elevations of
NE PA-NW NJ).

Filtered sunshine with high clouds during the morning will give way
to sunny skies by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SW winds 5-10 mph in the
morning are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night thru Monday...High pressure at the surface and
aloft will be in control of the weather with fair weather
expected. Temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Monday night thru Wednesday...A pattern change with a sharp h5
trough moving into the ern part of the country. Low pressure
and a slow moving front associated with the upper trough will
affect the area with occasional rains. Locally heavy rains are
possible with an upper trough beginning to take a negative tilt
as it crosses the area. The 12Z NA models are showing QPF
totals generally in the 1 to 3 inch range across the area for
the period Mon_Wed. The higher totals are across the wrn
counties. Much colder temperatures will be ushered in behind
the system with below normal temperatures for the middle part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Generally VFR Thursday. However, patchy ground fog may develop at
the fog-prone, rural TAF sites between 05Z-11Z Thursday which could
result in a brief period of MVFR visibility. Confidence in fog
development was too low to mention in 18Z TAFs except at MIV.

SW winds 5-8 kt this afternoon will diminish to 5 KT or less after
sunset this evening. SW winds continue on Thursday, gradually
increasing to from 5-8 kt in the morning to 8-15 kt in the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night thru Monday...VFR expected thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds this afternoon are generally from the W-SW between 5 and 10
kt. However, winds are backed locally out of the S in the nearshore
NJ waters owing to the formation of a sea breeze front. Winds may
briefly increase to 10-15 kt late this afternoon and early evening a
few miles farther off the NJ coast in association with an Ambrose
jet.

SW winds 5-10 kt will continue into tonight and Thursday morning,
then increase 10-15 kt across the coastal Atlantic waters during the
afternoon. Wind field may become locally enhanced to 15-20 kt off
the coast of Ocean and Monmouth Counties via Ambrose jet late in the
day. Held off on a SCA at this juncture since poor mixing profiles
should inhibit higher winds aloft to reach the surface. Accordingly,
capped gusts to below 25 kt.

Seas will generally be around 3 ft in the coastal waters and 2 ft or
less in the Delaware Bay.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night...Near SCA winds across the nrn NJ coastal waters Thu
    evening, but not confid enough for a flag attm. Fair.
Friday thru Sunday...Sub- SCA conditions thru the period with
    fair weather.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Klein/O`Hara
Marine...Klein/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181349
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
949 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A couple of frontal
boundaries are forecast to affect the area early next week,
bringing a return of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The Frost Advisory was allowed to expire at 9 AM for the NJ Pine
Barrens as temperatures have risen from the mid 30s at 7 AM to
the lower 50s just two hours later.

Otherwise, a quiet weather day is in store with high centered
over the mid-Atlantic region today. Sunny skies and a light W-SW
wind are in store for the area.

The combination of subsidence underneath the ridge and weak WAA
(from W-SW flow on the northern periphery of the high) will
yield a noticeably warmer day than yesterday and Monday. The
latest 12Z RAOB soundings from IAD/OKX reveal a 5-10 C increase
in low- level temps over the past 24 hours. High temperatures
for today were tweaked a bit for the 930 AM update after
blending the previous forecast with the latest hi-res guidance
and then applying a few minor manual adjustments based on bias
correct from yesterday`s forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Made adjustments to the sky cover forecast for tonight to take
into account the probability of increasing high clouds late
tonight. An upper shortwave trough approaching from the west
will be responsible for bringing in these clouds. Do not
anticipate these clouds to have a significant impact on
radiational cooling given the high base of the cirrus.

Clear tonight with diminishing winds. Dewpoints will slowly
begin to creep up with light S to SW flow. Patchy ground fog is
possible across the Delmarva, Pine Barrens of NJ, and parts of
northern NJ. Radiational cooling will allow for lows in the
upper 30s to around 40 in the Pine Barrens, and in the mid 40s
most elsewhere. The Philly metro area will drop into the low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of this week into
the weekend. High pressure will be in control of the weather
through the end of the week before moving offshore Sunday. A
frontal boundary may move across the area on Thursday, although
it is expected to be dry and only have an effect on the wind
direction and may slightly increase winds.

Ridging aloft builds across the area late this week into the
weekend, which will help keep temperatures several degrees above
normal. As the surface high and ridge aloft moves offshore
Sunday, return flow and southwest flow aloft develops. This will
help increase clouds, but no precipitation is expected through
Sunday.

As we go into early next week, a couple of frontal boundaries
are forecast to move across the east coast. This is expected to
lead to an increase in rainfall activity Monday into Tuesday,
then usher in cooler weather behind the fronts.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR through tonight. A light wind between 4-8 kt today will vary
between W and SW with the latter direction favored for this
afternoon. Winds diminish to 5 KT or less tonight.

Patchy ground fog is possible with brief sub-VFR VSBY at KMIV
and KACY late tonight through Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday-Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Winds may gust
around 15 knots out of the southwest Thursday and out of the
northwest Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure dominates area waters. SW winds increase to 10-15
KT this afternoon, then diminish to 5-10 KT tonight. Seas on the
ocean will be 2-3 feet.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday-Sunday...Conditions expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels through the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein/MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Klein/Robertson/MPS
Marine...Klein/Robertson/MPS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180704
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
304 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A couple of frontal
boundaries are forecast to affect the area early next week,
bringing a return of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Frost Advisory remains in effect for the Pine Barrens through
this morning, and should burn off fairly quickly within a few
hours after sunrise.

High pressure continues to strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic
area. Return flow develops this afternoon, and this will usher a
milder airmass into the region. Highs today will be about 10
degrees warmer than Tuesday, topping off in the upper 60s to
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Clear tonight with diminishing winds. Dewpoints will slowly
begin to creep up with light S to SW flow. Patchy ground fog is
possible across the Delmarva, Pine Barrens of NJ, and parts of
northern NJ. Radiational cooling will allow for lows in the
upper 30s to around 40 in the Pine Barrens, and in the mid 40s
most elsewhere. The Philly metro area will drop into the low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of this week into
the weekend. High pressure will be in control of the weather
through the end of the week before moving offshore Sunday. A
frontal boundary may move across the area on Thursday, although
it is expected to be dry and only have an effect on the wind
direction and may slightly increase winds.

Ridging aloft builds across the area late this week into the
weekend, which will help keep temperatures several degrees above
normal. As the surface high and ridge aloft moves offshore
Sunday, return flow and southwest flow aloft develops. This will
help increase clouds, but no precipitation is expected through
Sunday.

As we go into early next week, a couple of frontal boundaries
are forecast to move across the east coast. This is expected to
lead to an increase in rainfall activity Monday into Tuesday,
then usher in cooler weather behind the fronts.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR through Wednesday night. Light winds through daybreak, and
then SW winds increase to 5-7 KT this afternoon. Winds diminish
to 5 KT or less tonight.

Patchy ground fog is possible with brief sub-VFR VSBY at
KMIV/KACY late tonight through Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday-Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Winds may gust
around 15 knots out of the southwest Thursday and out of the
northwest Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure dominates area waters. SW winds increase to 10-15
KT this afternoon, then diminish to 5-10 KT tonight. Ocean seas
will be around 3 feet.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday-Sunday...Conditions expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels through the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020>022-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson/MPS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180336
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1136 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic region will
dominate the weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. The
only interruption will be a weak frontal boundary approaching
from the north Wednesday night into early Thursday. As the high
moves off the coast this weekend, a strong southerly flow will
bring much warmer- than-normal temperatures to the region
through Monday. A series of cold fronts will usher in rain...and
colder temperatures...during the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Clear and cold through the overnight as high pressure dominates
the East Coast. Frost Advisory in effect for NJ Pine Barrens.
Patchy frost otherwise across Delmarva, Lehigh Valley, and
northern and central NJ. Lows tonight in the low/mid 30s over
rural NJ and upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues across the region. Another sunny day is
expected area-wide. Temperatures will moderate back to a couple
degrees above normal levels with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s. Winds will be light mostly from the SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mid-level pattern associated with the long term period
begins with a low-amplitude ridge across the eastern section of
the country Wednesday night. A weak trough moves through early
Thursday before another mid-level ridge sets up shop over the
east coast by Friday, with the amplitude of this ridge
increasing through the weekend. A deep mid-level trough then
approaches from the west late Tuesday, signifying major changes
next week.

At the surface, high pressure centered over the central
Applachians Wednesday morning will drift south Wednesday night
and Thursday as a weak boundary slides in from the north. No
precipitation is expected with this boundary, so its only
noticeable effect may be a slight shift in wind direction and a
slight drop in relative humidity. Then as the surface high
begins to push back north, the nice weather will continue. With
the amplitude of mid-level ridging increasing into early next
week, and a southerly flow at the surface, temperatures will
continue to rise too, maxing out 10 to 15 degrees above normal
on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. A cold front will begin to cool
temperatures down Monday night, with a stronger cold front on
Tuesday bringing with it the coldest temperatures of the autumn
season so far by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR through Wednesday night. Light winds through daybreak, and
then light SW winds on Wednesday.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and fair weather through Wednesday.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ020>022-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Miketta
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Miketta
Aviation...Meola/Miketta/MPS/O`Hara
Marine...Miketta/MPS/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 171925
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
325 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic region will dominate
the weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. The only
interruption will be a weak frontal boundary approaching from the
north Wednesday night into early Thursday. As the high moves off the
coast this weekend, a strong southerly flow will bring much warmer-
than-normal temperatures to the region through Monday. A series of
cold fronts will usher in rain...and colder temperatures...during
the first half of next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure with clear skies will continue over the area tonight.
Another cold night is expected, but the coldest temperatures will be
over the Pine Barrens of NJ with slightly warmer readings over the
wrn areas. Consequently, the Frost Advisory for tonight will be
across the Pine Barrens. We have also added Ocean County, with the
wrn more rural areas expecting frost and none near the shore. Lows
tonight in the low/mid 30s over rural NJ and upper 30s to low 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues across the region. Another sunny day is
expected area-wide. Temperatures will moderate back to a couple
degrees above normal levels with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Winds will be light mostly from the SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mid-level pattern associated with the long term period begins
with a low-amplitude ridge across the eastern section of the country
Wednesday night. A weak trough moves through early Thursday before
another mid-level ridge sets up shop over the east coast by Friday,
with the amplitude of this ridge increasing through the weekend. A
deep mid-level trough then approaches from the west late Tuesday,
signifying major changes next week.

At the surface, high pressure centered over the central Applachians
Wednesday morning will drift south Wednesday night and Thursday as a
weak boundary slides in from the north. No precipitation is expected
with this boundary, so its only noticeable effect may be a
slight shift in wind direction and a slight drop in relative
humidity. Then as the surface high begins to push back north,
the nice weather will continue. With the amplitude of mid-level
ridging increasing into early next week, and a southerly flow at
the surface, temperatures will continue to rise too, maxing out
10 to 15 degrees above normal on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
A cold front will begin to cool temperatures down Monday night,
with a stronger cold front on Tuesday bringing with it the
coldest temperatures of the autumn season so far by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through Wednesday.
Light W to NW winds this afternoon will diminish overnight. Light
Southwest winds are expected Wednesday morning.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The remaining SCA flag for the southern NJ and Delaware waters will
be taken down at 3:30 p.m. Light winds and fair weather tonight and
Wednesday.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ020>022-
     027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Miketta
Near Term...O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Miketta
Aviation...Miketta/O`Hara
Marine...Miketta/O`Hara




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