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000
FXUS61 KPHI 142027
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in across the area tonight through Friday
and then weaken. A low pressure system will move up the Middle
Atlantic coast Friday afternoon and evening. High pressure will return
for most of the weekend. A weak low pressure system will move through
Sunday night into Monday with another low expected for Tuesday.
High pressure will build in for the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds into the region tonight. This will allow winds
to become light, especially late this evening and overnight as the
pressure gradient weakens. High clouds associated with an upper jet
streak will spread into the area this evening and overnight before
eroding from south to north toward early morning. We currently do
not anticipate this cirrus deck to have a significant impact on
radiational cooling. Accordingly, forecast low temperatures are on
the cooler side of the guidance with lows in the teens area wide
(slight cooler in the Poconos and slightly warmer in the cities. As
far as how we get there: temperatures should drop quickly after dark
despite the continued NW winds 5-15 mph given the tail end of the
stronger post-frontal CAA surge is projected to occur 21Z-00Z this
evening, then continue to fall but at a slower clip late this
evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The next shortwave disturbance is forecast to dig around the
backside of the large scale trough across the Midwest/Great Lakes
region on Friday. There looks to be another weaker shortwave farther
south that will be tracking eastward into the central Appalachians.
The latest 12Z models trended toward slightly more pronounced with
(at least some degree of) of phasing between these two systems as
they approach the Mid-Atlantic region in the afternoon. This is
evident in the upper-level jet streak that strengthens to 180-190 kt
at 250 mb) just to our south by the afternoon as well as coastal
cyclogensis that occurs near the NC/VA border midday.

Large-scale lift in the left-exit region of the upper-level jet
streak and in WAA/southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will likely
lead to the development of light precipitation during the afternoon
over coastal plain and possibly back into the I-95 corridor. Given
the trends seen in today`s guidance, PoPs were increased to chance
for the I-95 corridor and to likely for Delmarva and southern NJ by
late afternoon. Although temperatures in the coastal plain may be in
the mid to upper 30s early in the afternoon, evaporative cooling
should bring them down to freezing as precip arrives. Accordingly,
ptype looks to be primarily snow for this event with the possibility
of a brief rain/snow mix at the onset near the coast.

The progressive pattern makes this a short-duration event, limiting
the risk for more substantial snowfall accumulations. Forecast
amounts that went out with the afternoon forecast package are 1" or
less for Delmarva and southern New Jersey. There is some support for
mesoscale banding (through snow bands would be much more transitory
than what we saw with the December 8-9 event) that would lead to
locally higher amounts with frontogenesis potentially occurring on
the northwestern side of the developing surface low. For the I-95
corridor, kept snowfall accumulations out of the forecast for now
with them predicted to be on the north/western fringe of the
organized lift and precipitation shield. We may need to expand light
accumulations a bit farther back to the north/west if trends
continue this way.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The offshore low (from the short term) will continue to pull
away Friday night and pops will decrease through the night. Any
accumulations of snow across srn NJ or coastal Delmarva will be
light after 00Z Saturday. High pressure will begin to build in
by morning. Low temperatures Saturday morning will bottom out in
the in the teens or low 20s far north and mid/upper 20s other
areas.

The weekend looks to be mostly fair at this point with high pressure
affecting the area. Temperatures will be a little below normal for
mid December, but not the the harsh chill like we had the past few
days. Clouds will increase later Sunday as a weak system begins to
arrive from the south/west. This system will be rather disorganized
and is not even shown producing qpf on the 12Z GFS model. Nonetheless,
since the other models are showing some precip, we have put some
chc pops are in the fcst for these areas. Mostly rain S/E with some
snow psbl N/W. Low confid overall.

Monday through Tuesday night will have mostly fair weather for the
area. Under upper ridging, temperatures will rise back to above
normal values with highs Monday and Tuesday in the 50s over
Delmarva and metro Philadelphia and mostly mid/upper 40s for the
Lehigh Valley and central NJ areas. It`s possible that a few showers
may occur, but confid is rather limited and thus any pops in the
grids attm are in the slgt chc range. Chance pops will be found
Tuesday across the N/W areas with a front affecting those areas.

Wednesday and beyond will be mostly fair as another high pressure
areas moves in. Most of the operational 12Z models have this period
as dry. Temperatures should be back near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon and tonight...VFR. W-NW winds 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt will begin to subside toward sunset. We should lose
the gusts everywhere between about 23-01Z. Winds will decrease to 5-
10 kt this evening and 5 kt or less by late tonight.

Friday...VFR and light/variable winds in the morning. Confidence is
increasing in light snow developing along and especially south/east
of I-95 terminals. Would envision SN with vsby/ceiling restrictions
being mentioned first in the 00Z TAF for MIV and ACY sometime after
18Z, where the potential for snow appears to be greatest. A light SW
winds around 5 kt should develop.

Outlook...
Fri night...VFR conditions returning to S/E terminals with snow
   ending during the late evening. VFR elsewhere.
Sat thru Sunday...Mostly VFR.
Sunday night thru Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect thru 6 PM for the DE Bay waters and thru 10
PM for the coastal NJ waters. NW wind gusts were near 25 kt over
most of the waters this mid afternoon. Seas remain elevated in the 4-
7 ft range for the coastal waters this afternoon, but are
expected to diminish in accordance with the winds this evening.

Winds and seas below SCA criteria overnight tonight and Friday. Snow
will likely develop over the DE Bay and the coastal waters of
southern NJ and DE Friday afternoon.

Outlook...
Fri night/Saturday...SCA conditions developing on the ocean behind
    the departing low. Mostly sub-SCA for Delaware Bay.
Sat night thru Monday...Sub-SCA expected. Showers psbl Sun night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Klein/O`Hara
Marine...Klein/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141711
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1211 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Midday update...Changes to the hourly temperatures were needed
to account for the more pronounced drop in temperatures that
occurred behind the cold front late this morning. Expect
temperatures to not change a whole lot at current readings
through mid afternoon.


Previous discussion...Mid morning surface analysis shows an
area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the NJ
coast or 100 miles south of Cape Cod. A cold front with this
system was moving southeastward across Delmarva and southern NJ.

The low pressure system and associated mid-level shortwave
trough that brought light snowfall to most of the area last
night and early this morning will move farther away from the
area today while high pressure builds in from the west. Subsidence
in its wake will lead to a sunny afternoon after we deal with a
few hours of CAA stratocu late this morning immediately in wake
of the fropa.

West-northwest winds will become breezy late this morning and
afternoon in response to a tightening pressure gradient between
the downstream low and upstream high pressure. Hourly
temperatures were updated for the 930 AM ESTF to take into
account a non-diurnal temperature curve: Temperatures should
struggle to rise much during the afternoon when CAA behind the
front strengthens enough to predominately offset diurnal
heating. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 20s for the
Poconos, around freezing in the Lehigh Valley, upper 30s to
lower 40s for the I-95 corridor and mid 40s for far southern NJ,
southern DE and adjacent eastern MD (with these highs occurring
by around midday in many spots).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...SN had ended across the area earlier this morning. With
a W-NW winds increasing late this morning, BLSN could lead to
localized/brief reductions in visibility to MVFR where fresh
snow fell early this morning. This has been occurring so far
this morning at the terminals north of PHL.

Gusty west or northwest winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for
most of the area (speeds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts or so).
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
GLW for ANZ454-455 was allowed to expire at noon EST and then
replaced with a SCA for the afternoon and evening.

Elsewhere, a SCA is in effect thru the afternoon for the DE Bay
waters and thru this evening for the coastal NJ waters.

Seas should remain elevated in the 4-7 ft range for the coastal
waters this afternoon, but as northwest flow develops this
afternoon, there should be a diminishing trend this evening.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Klein/Meola
Marine...CMS/Klein/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141456
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
956 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid morning surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
located about 250 miles east of the NJ coast or 100 miles south
of Cape Cod. A cold front with this system was moving
southeastward across Delmarva and southern NJ.

The low pressure system and associated mid-level shortwave
trough that brought light snowfall to most of the area last
night and early this morning will move farther away from the
area today while high pressure builds in from the west. Subsidence
in its wake will lead to a sunny afternoon after we deal with a
few hours of CAA stratocu late this morning immediately in wake
of the fropa.

West-northwest winds will become breezy late this morning and
afternoon in response to a tightening pressure gradient between
the downstream low and upstream high pressure. Hourly
temperatures were updated for the 930 AM ESTF to take into
account a non-diurnal temperature curve: Temperatures should
struggle to rise much during the afternoon when CAA behind the
front strengthens enough to predominately offset diurnal
heating. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 20s for the
Poconos, around freezing in the Lehigh Valley, upper 30s to
lower 40s for the I-95 corridor and mid 40s for far southern NJ,
southern DE and adjacent eastern MD (with these highs occurring
by around midday in many spots).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...SN had ended across the area earlier this morning. With
a W-NW winds increasing late this morning, BLSN could lead to
localized/brief reductions in visibility to MVFR where fresh
snow fell early this morning. This has been occurring so far
this morning at the terminals north of PHL.

Gusty west or northwest winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for
most of the area (speeds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts or so).
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
Will keep GLW going for the southern coastal waters (ANZ454-455)
for the remainder of the morning. Although winds have currently
dropped off to well below criteria (and barely even SCA
criteria), a brief resurgence in the winds are expected
immediately behind the cold front between 10 AM and noon.
Elsewhere, A SCA is in effect thru the afternoon for the DE Bay
waters and thru this evening for the coastal NJ waters.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Klein/Meola
Marine...CMS/Klein/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141456
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
956 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid morning surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
located about 250 miles east of the NJ coast or 100 miles south
of Cape Cod. A cold front with this system was moving
southeastward across Delmarva and southern NJ.

The low pressure system and associated mid-level shortwave
trough that brought light snowfall to most of the area last
night and early this morning will move farther away from the
area today while high pressure builds in from the west. Subsidence
in its wake will lead to a sunny afternoon after we deal with a
few hours of CAA stratocu late this morning immediately in wake
of the fropa.

West-northwest winds will become breezy late this morning and
afternoon in response to a tightening pressure gradient between
the downstream low and upstream high pressure. Hourly
temperatures were updated for the 930 AM ESTF to take into
account a non-diurnal temperature curve: Temperatures should
struggle to rise much during the afternoon when CAA behind the
front strengthens enough to predominately offset diurnal
heating. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 20s for the
Poconos, around freezing in the Lehigh Valley, upper 30s to
lower 40s for the I-95 corridor and mid 40s for far southern NJ,
southern DE and adjacent eastern MD (with these highs occurring
by around midday in many spots).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...SN had ended across the area earlier this morning. With
a W-NW winds increasing late this morning, BLSN could lead to
localized/brief reductions in visibility to MVFR where fresh
snow fell early this morning. This has been occurring so far
this morning at the terminals north of PHL.

Gusty west or northwest winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for
most of the area (speeds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts or so).
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
Will keep GLW going for the southern coastal waters (ANZ454-455)
for the remainder of the morning. Although winds have currently
dropped off to well below criteria (and barely even SCA
criteria), a brief resurgence in the winds are expected
immediately behind the cold front between 10 AM and noon.
Elsewhere, A SCA is in effect thru the afternoon for the DE Bay
waters and thru this evening for the coastal NJ waters.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Klein/Meola
Marine...CMS/Klein/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141256
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
756 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM update: The remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory has
been cancelled with snow moving out of northeastern PA and
northern NJ. There are additional snow showers farther south
across DE and southern NJ but with precip moving quickly to the
east and with temperatures above freezing, do not expect much
in the way of snowfall accumulations and impacts on travel. The
forecast (PoPs and Wx) has been adjusted accordingly.

Previous discussion...

A decently strong clipper low is moving through the northern Mid-
Atlantic this morning, with most of the area receiving a dusting to
around an inch and a half of snow with warm-air advection generated
precipitation that moved through the area earlier. Lingering light
snow persists north of I-78 as the surface low remains to the west.
However, it will quickly redevelop offshore as synoptic-scale lift
quickly increases in favorable left-front quadrant jet dynamics
combined with differential cyclonic vorticity advection from the
attendant midlevel vort max. This means that the zonally-oriented
band of snow across most of Pennsylvania should generally diminish
with time while rain/snow develop offshore during the next few
hours. However, as the surface low to the west propagates closer to
the western CWA, there should be a final push of snow across
northern portions of the CWA, where up to another inch or so is
possible through the morning rush hour.

As such, the winter weather advisory was not changed with this
update, though snow totals themselves will likely be below criteria
(at least in an areal average sense) with this event. I may chip
away at the advisory from south to north during the next few hours
should the snow be as far north as the latest HRRR simulations
suggest (versus the NAM). For context, the precipitation as
simulated yesterday was underdone and too far north in the WAA
regime (by about 100 miles), so I do not have much confidence in the
placement of the final push of snow this morning. With subfreezing
conditions continuing, expect slick roads for the morning commute,
especially those that remain untreated.

To the south, the dry slot has effectively ended the precipitation
(mainly along/south of I-76). Models are much too cold in this area,
and hourly temperatures have been a real struggle as a result.
Statistical guidance has trended warmer today, but I suspect this is
too aggressive where accumulating snow has fallen. Nevertheless,
given the cold bias in the southern areas this morning, I inched up
temperatures today in general.

Once the low passes this morning, west winds should pick up and
become gusty again, especially this afternoon. Gusts should be much
lower today versus yesterday, and with warmer temperatures, it will
simply be uncomfortable versus bone-chilling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

At 1245Z, conditions are improving to VFR with the SN already
exiting the area. However, RDG and ABE are still reported MVFR
CIGs in SN (though it is more likely BLSN). W-NW winds will
increase later this morning, which could potentially lead to
BLSN and localized reduced visibility to MVFR in spots where
fresh snow fell early this morning.

Gusty west or northwest winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for
most of the area (speeds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts or
so). High confidence.

Thursday night...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
630 am update: Gale warning continues for the Delaware coastal
waters, with models indicating peak winds between now and 10 am.
Latest model simulations show continued advisory-level gusts for
the New Jersey coastal waters until around 10 pm tonight.
Extended the advisory here, and will replace the gale warning
with a small craft advisory for the Delaware waters once the
gales come down.

Previous discussion...

Gales have developed at buoy 44009 this morning, so I have
issued a short-fused gale warning for the Delaware coastal
waters through noon today. Elsewhere, strong small-craft
advisory conditions will exist this morning before a slow
diminishing trend occurs this afternoon. Although winds may
linger near/slightly above advisory criteria early this evening,
not confident enough to extend the advisory at this time.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS/Klein
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola/Klein
Marine...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141129
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
629 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 am update: Light snow continues, mainly confined to the
current advisory area. No changes at this time, though
cancellation before 10 am is likely, as the snow will be on the
way out in the next couple of hours. Main changes this update
were minor edits to temperature, dew point, and wind grids.
Forecast is in good shape.

500 am update: The last surge of snow is beginning to affect the
area this morning, with the current forecast handling this
well. Additional totals up to an inch are possible, but do not
see much more than this. Additionally, the southern fringes of
the advisory will likely see little if any additional
accumulation. As such, cancelled the winter weather advisory for
the Philadelphia (though kept it for now for the northwest
suburbs, though even here, additional accumulations may not
amount to much). Of course, slick roads can still be expected,
even without an advisory in place.

Previous discussion...

A decently strong clipper low is moving through the northern Mid-
Atlantic this morning, with most of the area receiving a dusting to
around an inch and a half of snow with warm-air advection generated
precipitation that moved through the area earlier. Lingering light
snow persists north of I-78 as the surface low remains to the west.
However, it will quickly redevelop offshore as synoptic-scale lift
quickly increases in favorable left-front quadrant jet dynamics
combined with differential cyclonic vorticity advection from the
attendant midlevel vort max. This means that the zonally-oriented
band of snow across most of Pennsylvania should generally diminish
with time while rain/snow develop offshore during the next few
hours. However, as the surface low to the west propagates closer to
the western CWA, there should be a final push of snow across
northern portions of the CWA, where up to another inch or so is
possible through the morning rush hour.

As such, the winter weather advisory was not changed with this
update, though snow totals themselves will likely be below criteria
(at least in an areal average sense) with this event. I may chip
away at the advisory from south to north during the next few hours
should the snow be as far north as the latest HRRR simulations
suggest (versus the NAM). For context, the precipitation as
simulated yesterday was underdone and too far north in the WAA
regime (by about 100 miles), so I do not have much confidence in the
placement of the final push of snow this morning. With subfreezing
conditions continuing, expect slick roads for the morning commute,
especially those that remain untreated.

To the south, the dry slot has effectively ended the precipitation
(mainly along/south of I-76). Models are much too cold in this area,
and hourly temperatures have been a real struggle as a result.
Statistical guidance has trended warmer today, but I suspect this is
too aggressive where accumulating snow has fallen. Nevertheless,
given the cold bias in the southern areas this morning, I inched up
temperatures today in general.

Once the low passes this morning, west winds should pick up and
become gusty again, especially this afternoon. Gusts should be much
lower today versus yesterday, and with warmer temperatures, it will
simply be uncomfortable versus bone-chilling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thursday...Potential for residual MVFR/IFR CIGs between 12Z and
15Z with light snow exiting RDG/TTN/ABE by 13-14Z, with rapid
improvement to VFR everywhere expected thereafter. Gusty west
or northwest winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for most of the
area (speeds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts or so). High
confidence.

Thursday night...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
630 am update: Gale warning continues for the Delaware coastal
waters, with models indicating peak winds between now and 10 am.
Latest model simulations show continued advisory-level gusts for
the New Jersey coastal waters until around 10 pm tonight.
Extended the advisory here, and will replace the gale warning
with a small craft advisory for the Delaware waters once the
gales come down.

Previous discussion...

Gales have developed at buoy 44009 this morning, so I have
issued a short-fused gale warning for the Delaware coastal
waters through noon today. Elsewhere, strong small-craft
advisory conditions will exist this morning before a slow
diminishing trend occurs this afternoon. Although winds may
linger near/slightly above advisory criteria early this evening,
not confident enough to extend the advisory at this time.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141129
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
629 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 am update: Light snow continues, mainly confined to the
current advisory area. No changes at this time, though
cancellation before 10 am is likely, as the snow will be on the
way out in the next couple of hours. Main changes this update
were minor edits to temperature, dew point, and wind grids.
Forecast is in good shape.

500 am update: The last surge of snow is beginning to affect the
area this morning, with the current forecast handling this
well. Additional totals up to an inch are possible, but do not
see much more than this. Additionally, the southern fringes of
the advisory will likely see little if any additional
accumulation. As such, cancelled the winter weather advisory for
the Philadelphia (though kept it for now for the northwest
suburbs, though even here, additional accumulations may not
amount to much). Of course, slick roads can still be expected,
even without an advisory in place.

Previous discussion...

A decently strong clipper low is moving through the northern Mid-
Atlantic this morning, with most of the area receiving a dusting to
around an inch and a half of snow with warm-air advection generated
precipitation that moved through the area earlier. Lingering light
snow persists north of I-78 as the surface low remains to the west.
However, it will quickly redevelop offshore as synoptic-scale lift
quickly increases in favorable left-front quadrant jet dynamics
combined with differential cyclonic vorticity advection from the
attendant midlevel vort max. This means that the zonally-oriented
band of snow across most of Pennsylvania should generally diminish
with time while rain/snow develop offshore during the next few
hours. However, as the surface low to the west propagates closer to
the western CWA, there should be a final push of snow across
northern portions of the CWA, where up to another inch or so is
possible through the morning rush hour.

As such, the winter weather advisory was not changed with this
update, though snow totals themselves will likely be below criteria
(at least in an areal average sense) with this event. I may chip
away at the advisory from south to north during the next few hours
should the snow be as far north as the latest HRRR simulations
suggest (versus the NAM). For context, the precipitation as
simulated yesterday was underdone and too far north in the WAA
regime (by about 100 miles), so I do not have much confidence in the
placement of the final push of snow this morning. With subfreezing
conditions continuing, expect slick roads for the morning commute,
especially those that remain untreated.

To the south, the dry slot has effectively ended the precipitation
(mainly along/south of I-76). Models are much too cold in this area,
and hourly temperatures have been a real struggle as a result.
Statistical guidance has trended warmer today, but I suspect this is
too aggressive where accumulating snow has fallen. Nevertheless,
given the cold bias in the southern areas this morning, I inched up
temperatures today in general.

Once the low passes this morning, west winds should pick up and
become gusty again, especially this afternoon. Gusts should be much
lower today versus yesterday, and with warmer temperatures, it will
simply be uncomfortable versus bone-chilling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thursday...Potential for residual MVFR/IFR CIGs between 12Z and
15Z with light snow exiting RDG/TTN/ABE by 13-14Z, with rapid
improvement to VFR everywhere expected thereafter. Gusty west
or northwest winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for most of the
area (speeds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts or so). High
confidence.

Thursday night...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
630 am update: Gale warning continues for the Delaware coastal
waters, with models indicating peak winds between now and 10 am.
Latest model simulations show continued advisory-level gusts for
the New Jersey coastal waters until around 10 pm tonight.
Extended the advisory here, and will replace the gale warning
with a small craft advisory for the Delaware waters once the
gales come down.

Previous discussion...

Gales have developed at buoy 44009 this morning, so I have
issued a short-fused gale warning for the Delaware coastal
waters through noon today. Elsewhere, strong small-craft
advisory conditions will exist this morning before a slow
diminishing trend occurs this afternoon. Although winds may
linger near/slightly above advisory criteria early this evening,
not confident enough to extend the advisory at this time.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141005
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
505 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
500 am update: The last surge of snow is beginning to affect the
area this morning, with the current forecast handling this
well. Additional totals up to an inch are possible, but do not
see much more than this. Additionally, the southern fringes of
the advisory will likely see little if any additional
accumulation. As such, cancelled the winter weather advisory for
the Philadelphia (though kept it for now for the northwest
suburbs, though even here, additional accumulations may not
amount to much). Of course, slick roads can still be expected,
even without an advisory in place.

Previous discussion...

A decently strong clipper low is moving through the northern Mid-
Atlantic this morning, with most of the area receiving a dusting to
around an inch and a half of snow with warm-air advection generated
precipitation that moved through the area earlier. Lingering light
snow persists north of I-78 as the surface low remains to the west.
However, it will quickly redevelop offshore as synoptic-scale lift
quickly increases in favorable left-front quadrant jet dynamics
combined with differential cyclonic vorticity advection from the
attendant midlevel vort max. This means that the zonally-oriented
band of snow across most of Pennsylvania should generally diminish
with time while rain/snow develop offshore during the next few
hours. However, as the surface low to the west propagates closer to
the western CWA, there should be a final push of snow across
northern portions of the CWA, where up to another inch or so is
possible through the morning rush hour.

As such, the winter weather advisory was not changed with this
update, though snow totals themselves will likely be below criteria
(at least in an areal average sense) with this event. I may chip
away at the advisory from south to north during the next few hours
should the snow be as far north as the latest HRRR simulations
suggest (versus the NAM). For context, the precipitation as
simulated yesterday was underdone and too far north in the WAA
regime (by about 100 miles), so I do not have much confidence in the
placement of the final push of snow this morning. With subfreezing
conditions continuing, expect slick roads for the morning commute,
especially those that remain untreated.

To the south, the dry slot has effectively ended the precipitation
(mainly along/south of I-76). Models are much too cold in this area,
and hourly temperatures have been a real struggle as a result.
Statistical guidance has trended warmer today, but I suspect this is
too aggressive where accumulating snow has fallen. Nevertheless,
given the cold bias in the southern areas this morning, I inched up
temperatures today in general.

Once the low passes this morning, west winds should pick up and
become gusty again, especially this afternoon. Gusts should be much
lower today versus yesterday, and with warmer temperatures, it will
simply be uncomfortable versus bone-chilling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...IFR conditions have set in north of the Mason-
Dixon Line, with a sharp change to VFR to the south. It is unclear
how long this will last and how the CIG conditions will evolve north
to south for the rest of the night. Generally think the IFR
conditions will continue where they are through daybreak, but VFR
should prevail at ILG/MIV/ACY (with PHL, of course, being the battle
ground terminal). Light snow may occur at RDG/ABE/TTN near sunrise,
with at least some potential at PNE/PHL, but confidence in coverage
for the rest of the night is low. Winds will be generally
light/variable, though there may be some preference for an
east or southeast direction through 12Z.

Thursday...Potential for residual MVFR/IFR CIGs between 12Z and 15Z,
but rapid improvement to VFR is expected. Gusty west or northwest
winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for most of the area (speeds 5 to
15 kts with gusts 15 to 25 kts). High confidence.

Thursday night...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.


Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
Gales have developed at buoy 44009 this morning, so I have
issued a short-fused gale warning for the Delaware coastal
waters through noon today. Elsewhere, strong small-craft
advisory conditions will exist this morning before a slow
diminishing trend occurs this afternoon. Although winds may
linger near/slightly above advisory criteria early this evening,
not confident enough to extend the advisory at this time.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141005
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
505 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
500 am update: The last surge of snow is beginning to affect the
area this morning, with the current forecast handling this
well. Additional totals up to an inch are possible, but do not
see much more than this. Additionally, the southern fringes of
the advisory will likely see little if any additional
accumulation. As such, cancelled the winter weather advisory for
the Philadelphia (though kept it for now for the northwest
suburbs, though even here, additional accumulations may not
amount to much). Of course, slick roads can still be expected,
even without an advisory in place.

Previous discussion...

A decently strong clipper low is moving through the northern Mid-
Atlantic this morning, with most of the area receiving a dusting to
around an inch and a half of snow with warm-air advection generated
precipitation that moved through the area earlier. Lingering light
snow persists north of I-78 as the surface low remains to the west.
However, it will quickly redevelop offshore as synoptic-scale lift
quickly increases in favorable left-front quadrant jet dynamics
combined with differential cyclonic vorticity advection from the
attendant midlevel vort max. This means that the zonally-oriented
band of snow across most of Pennsylvania should generally diminish
with time while rain/snow develop offshore during the next few
hours. However, as the surface low to the west propagates closer to
the western CWA, there should be a final push of snow across
northern portions of the CWA, where up to another inch or so is
possible through the morning rush hour.

As such, the winter weather advisory was not changed with this
update, though snow totals themselves will likely be below criteria
(at least in an areal average sense) with this event. I may chip
away at the advisory from south to north during the next few hours
should the snow be as far north as the latest HRRR simulations
suggest (versus the NAM). For context, the precipitation as
simulated yesterday was underdone and too far north in the WAA
regime (by about 100 miles), so I do not have much confidence in the
placement of the final push of snow this morning. With subfreezing
conditions continuing, expect slick roads for the morning commute,
especially those that remain untreated.

To the south, the dry slot has effectively ended the precipitation
(mainly along/south of I-76). Models are much too cold in this area,
and hourly temperatures have been a real struggle as a result.
Statistical guidance has trended warmer today, but I suspect this is
too aggressive where accumulating snow has fallen. Nevertheless,
given the cold bias in the southern areas this morning, I inched up
temperatures today in general.

Once the low passes this morning, west winds should pick up and
become gusty again, especially this afternoon. Gusts should be much
lower today versus yesterday, and with warmer temperatures, it will
simply be uncomfortable versus bone-chilling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...IFR conditions have set in north of the Mason-
Dixon Line, with a sharp change to VFR to the south. It is unclear
how long this will last and how the CIG conditions will evolve north
to south for the rest of the night. Generally think the IFR
conditions will continue where they are through daybreak, but VFR
should prevail at ILG/MIV/ACY (with PHL, of course, being the battle
ground terminal). Light snow may occur at RDG/ABE/TTN near sunrise,
with at least some potential at PNE/PHL, but confidence in coverage
for the rest of the night is low. Winds will be generally
light/variable, though there may be some preference for an
east or southeast direction through 12Z.

Thursday...Potential for residual MVFR/IFR CIGs between 12Z and 15Z,
but rapid improvement to VFR is expected. Gusty west or northwest
winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for most of the area (speeds 5 to
15 kts with gusts 15 to 25 kts). High confidence.

Thursday night...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.


Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
Gales have developed at buoy 44009 this morning, so I have
issued a short-fused gale warning for the Delaware coastal
waters through noon today. Elsewhere, strong small-craft
advisory conditions will exist this morning before a slow
diminishing trend occurs this afternoon. Although winds may
linger near/slightly above advisory criteria early this evening,
not confident enough to extend the advisory at this time.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140852
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
352 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move quickly to the north and east of the
area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west for
the rest of today through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well
offshore. High pressure then returns for the weekend. A weak low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
another system expected around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A decently strong clipper low is moving through the northern Mid-
Atlantic this morning, with most of the area receiving a dusting to
around an inch and a half of snow with warm-air advection generated
precipitation that moved through the area earlier. Lingering light
snow persists north of I-78 as the surface low remains to the west.
However, it will quickly redevelop offshore as synoptic-scale lift
quickly increases in favorable left-front quadrant jet dynamics
combined with differential cyclonic vorticity advection from the
attendant midlevel vort max. This means that the zonally-oriented
band of snow across most of Pennsylvania should generally diminish
with time while rain/snow develop offshore during the next few
hours. However, as the surface low to the west propagates closer to
the western CWA, there should be a final push of snow across
northern portions of the CWA, where up to another inch or so is
possible through the morning rush hour.

As such, the winter weather advisory was not changed with this
update, though snow totals themselves will likely be below criteria
(at least in an areal average sense) with this event. I may chip
away at the advisory from south to north during the next few hours
should the snow be as far north as the latest HRRR simulations
suggest (versus the NAM). For context, the precipitation as
simulated yesterday was underdone and too far north in the WAA
regime (by about 100 miles), so I do not have much confidence in the
placement of the final push of snow this morning. With subfreezing
conditions continuing, expect slick roads for the morning commute,
especially those that remain untreated.

To the south, the dry slot has effectively ended the precipitation
(mainly along/south of I-76). Models are much too cold in this area,
and hourly temperatures have been a real struggle as a result.
Statistical guidance has trended warmer today, but I suspect this is
too aggressive where accumulating snow has fallen. Nevertheless,
given the cold bias in the southern areas this morning, I inched up
temperatures today in general.

Once the low passes this morning, west winds should pick up and
become gusty again, especially this afternoon. Gusts should be much
lower today versus yesterday, and with warmer temperatures, it will
simply be uncomfortable versus bone-chilling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and this will
cause the winds to subside after dark. Mostly clear skies to start
the night will set the stage for a sharp drop in temperatures during
the evening, likely exacerbated in areas where remaining snow exists
(i.e., especially in the north). Generally went below guidance for
lows, though with increasing cloudiness likely to occur late, there
is some uncertainty here. The increasing cloud cover will be aided
by a 250-mb jet streak encompassing much of the eastern U.S.
downstream of another midlevel vort max entering the Great Lakes
region. The main question is timing, with faster approach of the
clouds likely resulting in warmer lows. Current forecasts are for an
increase rapidly after midnight, which should be ample time for
temperatures to plummet in the evening.

Speaking of lows, they are forecast to range from single digits in
the Poconos to around 20 in the Philly metro area. Bundle up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday through Friday night...High pressure will make its way
into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way
up the Mid Atlantic coast. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, some
moisture may reach into our area and we could see some snow/rain
fall towards the afternoon and into the evening. Additionally,
a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the area on Friday
with a another clipper system staying to the north of the area.
Guidance shows the moisture from the clipper drying out before
it reaches the region but with a strong northwest flow, we could
see some streamers make it from the lakes to our area.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure slides across
the eastern United States Saturday, bringing some beautiful late
fall weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
early Sunday before the next system arrives. Saturday may be a
bit windy, especially along the coast. Warmer air filters in
from the southwest but we won`t really start to feel the
difference until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the
30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s
on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...A weak low pressure system
will approach the region sometime around Sunday night into
Monday. While the models are not too robust with moisture, it
seems more likely underdone and we expect a period of rain or
mixed precipitation through the region. However, with
differences in timing and strength of the low, confidence
remains low.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The models diverge with how to
handle a strong low pressure system to our north and the
attendant cold front. Indications are we will see some
precipitation occur sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
but confidence is low with respect to coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...IFR conditions have set in north of the Mason-
Dixon Line, with a sharp change to VFR to the south. It is unclear
how long this will last and how the CIG conditions will evolve north
to south for the rest of the night. Generally think the IFR
conditions will continue where they are through daybreak, but VFR
should prevail at ILG/MIV/ACY (with PHL, of course, being the battle
ground terminal). Light snow may occur at RDG/ABE/TTN near sunrise,
with at least some potential at PNE/PHL, but confidence in coverage
for the rest of the night is low. Winds will be generally
light/variable, though there may be some preference for an
east or southeast direction through 12Z.

Thursday...Potential for residual MVFR/IFR CIGs between 12Z and 15Z,
but rapid improvement to VFR is expected. Gusty west or northwest
winds will occur from 15Z to 22Z for most of the area (speeds 5 to
15 kts with gusts 15 to 25 kts). High confidence.

Thursday night...VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kts.
Increasing mid and high clouds late. High confidence.


Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10
to 15 knots possible. Gusts up to 20 knots possible, mainly at
KACY and KMIV. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions in snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.
Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
Gales have developed at buoy 44009 this morning, so I have
issued a short-fused gale warning for the Delaware coastal
waters through noon today. Elsewhere, strong small-craft
advisory conditions will exist this morning before a slow
diminishing trend occurs this afternoon. Although winds may
linger near/slightly above advisory criteria early this evening,
not confident enough to extend the advisory at this time.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected.

Friday night through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. West to northwest winds with gusts around
25 to 30 knots. Gale force gusts possible but confidence is low
at this time. Seas will increase and near 5 feet on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140735
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
235 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system will move across the area tonight
and then offshore Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build over
the area later Thursday through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up along the coast Friday night. More high pressure will affect
the area much of this weekend. Another few disturbances will be
across the area beginning later Sunday and lasting into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mesoscale update: Vigorous but fast-moving snow band moved
through the southern half of the CWA during the past 3 hours.
Snow reports indicate generally 0.5-1.5 inch totals with the
band, mostly in about 1-2 hours. Pronounced dry slot has moved
into the area generally along/south of I-76/I-295 corridor, and
hi-res models show little precip occurring the rest of the night
in this area. Meanwhile, precip to the north looks lighter but
longer-lasting. For now, will keep current advisory as is given
the signal for at least light precip to the north for the next
few hours, but the snow looks mostly done Philly southward.
Expect slick roads tomorrow morning, but I suspect there will be
little additional snow. If current trends continue, portions of
the advisory will need to be cancelled early.

Grids update: Dew points were way too low (which makes sense
given the very sudden snowfall and shallow dry layer), so needed
to adjust these upward considerably overnight. Spatial
distribution of temperatures is largely based on presence of
snow or not, so frequent updates to temps will be required
through the night. For now, teens in the Poconos and twenties
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
Snow tapers off fairly quickly after sunrise Thursday morning, but
not before dropping up to 1/2" of additional snowfall across
northern zones. Behind strengthening and departing low, west to
northwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
starting in the late morning hours. The pressure gradient relaxes
during the afternoon.

Temperatures moderate a bit Thursday afternoon compared to highs
today, but will still be below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be across the Middle Atlantic region
Thursday night and Friday. It will bring mostly fair and continued
cool weather to the area. Temperatures will remain some 5 to 10
degrees below normal. A quick moving low pressure system will move
just off the NJ/DE coastal areas Friday night. This could bring some
light precipitation (most likely snow) to parts of SE NJ Friday
evening. Overall, confid in this is low however with the system
looking disorganized and the trends are to minimize any qpf over the
area. We`ll just keep the slgt chc pops for now, with this low and
an upper trough crossing the area.

Much of the upcoming weekend will be fair, with high pressure
building over the area. Sunny weather is expected most of Saturday
and much of Sunday before clouds increase later Sunday. Temperatures
will still be a little below normal Saturday before moderating back
to normal levels Sunday. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon
in a warm advection pattern, but again confid in this is rather
low attm, so we`ll just have slgt chc or small chc pops only
for this time.

A better chc for rains (a some higher elevations snows) will develop
Sunday night and last into Monday as a upper trough begin to affect
the area. We`ll have chc pops for Sunday night and slgt chc pops for Monday.
We`ll carry the low pops into Tuesday as well, with the different
models having varying solutions for this period. Most of the precip
will be rain with the temperatures Monday and Tuesday having
moderated back to above normal by then. A few snow showers
across the southern Poconos are possible however.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...IFR in snow but generally VFR or MVFR (CIGs) in the
absence of snow for the rest of the night. Best chances of snow
are north of PHL, with most snow probably done at PHL, ILG, MIV,
and ACY. Some light snow/flurries should be present for the next
couple of hours, so kept some mention here, but improved
CIGs/VSBYs considerably from previous TAFs. Winds
light/variable, though may see some stronger south/southeast
winds at times. Medium confidence.

Thursday...Potential for residual MVFR CIGs between 12Z and 15Z,
but rapid improvement to VFR is expected. Gusty west or
northwest winds will commence 15Z to 22Z for most of the area
(speeds 5 to 15 kts with gusts 15 to 25 kts). High confidence.

Outlook...
Thu night thru Fri...VFR.
Fri evening thru Sat morning...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl.
Sat afternoon thru Sunday...Mostly VFR.
Sunday night thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Slgt chc showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales have developed at buoy 44009 this morning, so I have
issued a short-fused gale warning for the Delaware coastal
waters through noon today. Elsewhere, strong small-craft
advisory conditions will exist this morning before a slow
diminishing trend occurs this afternoon. Although winds may
linger near/slightly above advisory criteria early this evening,
not confident enough to extend the advisory at this time.

Seas should remain elevated through the day, but as northwest
flow develops this afternoon, there should be a diminishing
trend this evening.

Light snow should continue across the New Jersey coastal waters
this morning, with visibility restrictions likely. Fair weather
should set in this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Thu night...SCA conditions early, diminishing. Fair,
Fri thru Fri evening...Sub-SCA. Chc rain/snow.
Fri night thru Sat...SCA with low end Gale psbl. Chc rain/snow.
Sat night thru Sunday...Mostly sub-SCA. Mostly fair.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>453.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...CMS/MPS
Short Term...CMS/MPS
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...CMS/O`Hara
Marine...CMS/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140543
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1243 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system will move across the area tonight
and then offshore Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build over
the area later Thursday through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up along the coast Friday night. More high pressure will affect
the area much of this weekend. Another few disturbances will be
across the area beginning later Sunday and lasting into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mesoscale update: Vigorous but fast-moving snow band moved
through the southern half of the CWA during the past 3 hours.
Snow reports indicate generally 0.5-1.5 inch totals with the
band, mostly in about 1-2 hours. Pronounced dry slot has moved
into the area generally along/south of I-76/I-295 corridor, and
hi-res models show little precip occurring the rest of the night
in this area. Meanwhile, precip to the north looks lighter but
longer-lasting. For now, will keep current advisory as is given
the signal for at least light precip to the north for the next
few hours, but the snow looks mostly done Philly southward.
Expect slick roads tomorrow morning, but I suspect there will be
little additional snow. If current trends continue, portions of
the advisory will need to be cancelled early.

Grids update: Dew points were way too low (which makes sense
given the very sudden snowfall and shallow dry layer), so needed
to adjust these upward considerably overnight. Spatial
distribution of temperatures is largely based on presence of
snow or not, so frequent updates to temps will be required
through the night. For now, teens in the Poconos and twenties
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
Snow tapers off fairly quickly after sunrise Thursday morning, but
not before dropping up to 1/2" of additional snowfall across
northern zones. Behind strengthening and departing low, west to
northwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
starting in the late morning hours. The pressure gradient relaxes
during the afternoon.

Temperatures moderate a bit Thursday afternoon compared to highs
today, but will still be below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be across the Middle Atlantic region
Thursday night and Friday. It will bring mostly fair and continued
cool weather to the area. Temperatures will remain some 5 to 10
degrees below normal. A quick moving low pressure system will move
just off the NJ/DE coastal areas Friday night. This could bring some
light precipitation (most likely snow) to parts of SE NJ Friday
evening. Overall, confid in this is low however with the system
looking disorganized and the trends are to minimize any qpf over the
area. We`ll just keep the slgt chc pops for now, with this low and
an upper trough crossing the area.

Much of the upcoming weekend will be fair, with high pressure
building over the area. Sunny weather is expected most of Saturday
and much of Sunday before clouds increase later Sunday. Temperatures
will still be a little below normal Saturday before moderating back
to normal levels Sunday. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon
in a warm advection pattern, but again confid in this is rather
low attm, so we`ll just have slgt chc or small chc pops only
for this time.

A better chc for rains (a some higher elevations snows) will develop
Sunday night and last into Monday as a upper trough begin to affect
the area. We`ll have chc pops for Sunday night and slgt chc pops for Monday.
We`ll carry the low pops into Tuesday as well, with the different
models having varying solutions for this period. Most of the precip
will be rain with the temperatures Monday and Tuesday having
moderated back to above normal by then. A few snow showers
across the southern Poconos are possible however.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...IFR in snow but generally VFR or MVFR (CIGs) in the
absence of snow for the rest of the night. Best chances of snow
are north of PHL, with most snow probably done at PHL, ILG, MIV,
and ACY. Some light snow/flurries should be present for the next
couple of hours, so kept some mention here, but improved
CIGs/VSBYs considerably from previous TAFs. Winds
light/variable, though may see some stronger south/southeast
winds at times. Medium confidence.

Thursday...Potential for residual MVFR CIGs between 12Z and 15Z,
but rapid improvement to VFR is expected. Gusty west or
northwest winds will commence 15Z to 22Z for most of the area
(speeds 5 to 15 kts with gusts 15 to 25 kts). High confidence.

Outlook...
Thu night thru Fri...VFR.
Fri evening thru Sat morning...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl.
Sat afternoon thru Sunday...Mostly VFR.
Sunday night thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Slgt chc showers.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected for the rest of tonight
as winds have decreased. There may be a brief lull in SCA
conditions on DE Bay.

SCA conditions will prevail through Thursday. Gusts may increase
close to gale force again as we head into Thursday.

Snow will develop late tonight and into Thursday morning, mainly on
the NJ coastal ocean waters, and this will result in VSBY
restrictions.

Outlook...

Thu night...SCA conditions early, diminishing. Fair,
Fri thru Fri evening...Sub-SCA. Chc rain/snow.
Fri night thru Sat...SCA with low end Gale psbl. Chc rain/snow.
Sat night thru Sunday...Mostly sub-SCA. Mostly fair.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...CMS/MPS
Short Term...CMS/MPS
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...CMS/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/Miketta/MPS/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140240
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
940 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system will move across the area tonight
and then offshore Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build over
the area later Thursday through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up along the coast Friday night. More high pressure will affect
the area much of this weekend. Another few disturbances will be
across the area beginning later Sunday and lasting into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...


Mesoscale update #2:

Increased 700 mb FGEN forcing has been sufficient to develop an
area of snow across Delmarva this evening. Radar is filling
nicely with snow quickly reaching the ground across most of
that area. Moderate snow is now occuring in Millville, NJ as
well. Precipitation should continue to advance northeastward
over the next couple of hours. Little change from below.


Mesoscale update #1:

Modeling has really keyed on a band of snow
to form in association with WAA coming northward. Snow could be
moderate at times with this band given the lift in place.
Soundings also a quick saturation and not that deep of a dry
layer, so virga concerns are more limited. Also the snow growth
region this evening is favorable for higher ratios in the 15:1
range as this band moves northeastward. Timing looks to be
around 10 pm in the Delmarva and Eastern PA and closer to
Midnight as you get further northeast into New Jersey.

Given slightly increased QPF based on the mesoscale modeling
snowfall, amounts are now forecasted to be a touch higher in
most locations. A quick inch or even slightly more could fall in
a two to three hour period. Roads will likely get slick and
hazardous quick this evening and we have expanded the advisories
eastward some. Overnight, modeling shows a dry slot working
northward through Delmarva and into SE PA/NJ before additional
snow comes in across the advisory area by sunrise.

Near term summary:

Clipper low moving through the Great Lakes will be over the Ohio
Valley after midnight, and then will pass through New Jersey and
move offshore just after daybreak Thursday. The low looks to weaken
as it approaches the spine of the Appalachians between midnight and
daybreak Thursday, but seems to strengthen a bit once it is through
the Appalachians in the pre-dawn hours.

As a result, light snow develops this evening, first over the Lehigh
Valley, and then spreads east through midnight. Around an inch or so
of snow accumulation is expected over the Lehigh Valley and into the
Poconos, but then the snow really gets going as the low intensifies.
Best lift and dynamics will be to the north, where an additional 1-
2" of snow is expected across the Lehigh Valley, Pocono Mountains,
and into northern New Jersey for a total of 2-3". Temperatures will
be cold enough to support 15-20:1 snowfall ratios, so it will not
take much liquid QPF to result in accumulating snow.

Although borderline for a Winter Weather Advisory, feel it is
prudent to issue one for the Lehigh Valley into northern NJ as
the bulk of the 2-3" of snow will accumulate just prior to and
during the Thursday morning commute. For the swath in southeast
Pennsylvania and in New Jersey near I-295, including Chester,
Delaware, Philadelphia, Lower Montgomery and Lower Bucks
counties, along with Camden/NW Burlington NJ areas 1-2" of snow
is expected, and this is close to Winter Weather Advisory
thresholds of 2", so the Advisory has been issued based on the
impacts of the snow falling during the Thursday morning commute.
Parts of northern New Jersey could get close to 2", and for
southern New Jersey and the Delmarva, accumulations should be
less than an inch, and not nearly as widespread as the
accumulations will be to the north.

Lows tonight range from the teens in the Poconos to the 20s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Snow tapers off fairly quickly after sunrise Thursday morning, but
not before dropping up to 1/2" of additional snowfall across
northern zones. Behind strengthening and departing low, west to
northwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
starting in the late morning hours. The pressure gradient relaxes
during the afternoon.

Temperatures moderate a bit Thursday afternoon compared to highs
today, but will still be below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be across the Middle Atlantic region
Thursday night and Friday. It will bring mostly fair and continued
cool weather to the area. Temperatures will remain some 5 to 10
degrees below normal. A quick moving low pressure system will move
just off the NJ/DE coastal areas Friday night. This could bring some
light precipitation (most likely snow) to parts of SE NJ Friday
evening. Overall, confid in this is low however with the system
looking disorganized and the trends are to minimize any qpf over the
area. We`ll just keep the slgt chc pops for now, with this low and
an upper trough crossing the area.

Much of the upcoming weekend will be fair, with high pressure
building over the area. Sunny weather is expected most of Saturday
and much of Sunday before clouds increase later Sunday. Temperatures
will still be a little below normal Saturday before moderating back
to normal levels Sunday. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon
in a warm advection pattern, but again confid in this is rather
low attm, so we`ll just have slgt chc or small chc pops only
for this time.

A better chc for rains (a some higher elevations snows) will develop
Sunday night and last into Monday as a upper trough begin to affect
the area. We`ll have chc pops for Sunday night and slgt chc pops for Monday.
We`ll carry the low pops into Tuesday as well, with the different
models having varying solutions for this period. Most of the precip
will be rain with the temperatures Monday and Tuesday having
moderated back to above normal by then. A few snow showers
across the southern Poconos are possible however.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Snow develops this evening with MVFR ceilings and
IFR/LIFR visibilities. The LIFR visibilities will be confined
to a period of generally moderate snow moving northeast across
the region from 2-5Z. Snow will accumulate to runways and
average an inch or so for most TAF sites with amounts around two
inches for KABE and KRDG.


NW winds 15-20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT will diminish fairly
quickly to 5-10 KT early this evening, and then will become LGT/VRB
tonight.

Moderate confidence with snow higher confidence with winds.

Thursday...Snow tapers off fairly quickly from west to east just
after 12Z Thursday, and conditions improve to VFR between 13-15Z.
Winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15 KT with 15-25 KT
gusts, perhaps a few KT higher at KACY. High confidence.

Outlook...
Thu night thru Fri...VFR.
Fri evening thru Sat morning...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl.
Sat afternoon thru Sunday...Mostly VFR.
Sunday night thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Slgt chc showers.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA conditions expected for the rest of tonight
as winds have decreased. There may be a brief lull in SCA
conditions on DE Bay.

SCA conditions will prevail through Thursday. Gusts may increase
close to gale force again as we head into Thursday.

Snow will develop late tonight and into Thursday morning, mainly on
the NJ coastal ocean waters, and this will result in VSBY
restrictions.

Outlook...

Thu night...SCA conditions early, diminishing. Fair,
Fri thru Fri evening...Sub-SCA. Chc rain/snow.
Fri night thru Sat...SCA with low end Gale psbl. Chc rain/snow.
Sat night thru Sunday...Mostly sub-SCA. Mostly fair.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NJZ001-
     007>010-012-015-017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gaines/MPS/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/Miketta/MPS/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140002
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
702 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system will move across the area tonight
and then offshore Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build over
the area later Thursday through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up along the coast Friday night. More high pressure will affect
the area much of this weekend. Another few disturbances will be
across the area beginning later Sunday and lasting into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

Mesoscale update #1:

Modeling has really keyed on a band of snow
to form in association with WAA coming northward. Snow could be
moderate at times with this band given the lift in place.
Soundings also a quick saturation and not that deep of a dry
layer, so virga concerns are more limited. Also the snow growth
region this evening is favorable for higher ratios in the 15:1
range as this band moves northeastward. Timing looks to be
around 10 pm in the Delmarva and Eastern PA and closer to
Midnight as you get further northeast into New Jersey.

Given slightly increased QPF based on the mesoscale modeling
snowfall, amounts are now forecasted to be a touch higher in
most locations. A quick inch or even slightly more could fall in
a two to three hour period. Roads will likely get slick and
hazardous quick this evening and we have expanded the advisories
eastward some. Overnight, modeling shows a dry slot working
northward through Delmarva and into SE PA/NJ before additional
snow comes in across the advisory area by sunrise.

Near term summary:

Clipper low moving through the Great Lakes will be over the Ohio
Valley after midnight, and then will pass through New Jersey and
move offshore just after daybreak Thursday. The low looks to weaken
as it approaches the spine of the Appalachians between midnight and
daybreak Thursday, but seems to strengthen a bit once it is through
the Appalachians in the pre-dawn hours.

As a result, light snow develops this evening, first over the Lehigh
Valley, and then spreads east through midnight. Around an inch or so
of snow accumulation is expected over the Lehigh Valley and into the
Poconos, but then the snow really gets going as the low intensifies.
Best lift and dynamics will be to the north, where an additional 1-
2" of snow is expected across the Lehigh Valley, Pocono Mountains,
and into northern New Jersey for a total of 2-3". Temperatures will
be cold enough to support 15-20:1 snowfall ratios, so it will not
take much liquid QPF to result in accumulating snow.

Although borderline for a Winter Weather Advisory, feel it is
prudent to issue one for the Lehigh Valley into northern NJ as
the bulk of the 2-3" of snow will accumulate just prior to and
during the Thursday morning commute. For the swath in southeast
Pennsylvania and in New Jersey near I-295, including Chester,
Delaware, Philadelphia, Lower Montgomery and Lower Bucks
counties, along with Camden/NW Burlington NJ areas 1-2" of snow
is expected, and this is close to Winter Weather Advisory
thresholds of 2", so the Advisory has been issued based on the
impacts of the snow falling during the Thursday morning commute.
Parts of northern New Jersey could get close to 2", and for
southern New Jersey and the Delmarva, accumulations should be
less than an inch, and not nearly as widespread as the
accumulations will be to the north.

Lows tonight range from the teens in the Poconos to the 20s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Snow tapers off fairly quickly after sunrise Thursday morning, but
not before dropping up to 1/2" of additional snowfall across
northern zones. Behind strengthening and departing low, west to
northwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
starting in the late morning hours. The pressure gradient relaxes
during the afternoon.

Temperatures moderate a bit Thursday afternoon compared to highs
today, but will still be below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be across the Middle Atlantic region
Thursday night and Friday. It will bring mostly fair and continued
cool weather to the area. Temperatures will remain some 5 to 10
degrees below normal. A quick moving low pressure system will move
just off the NJ/DE coastal areas Friday night. This could bring some
light precipitation (most likely snow) to parts of SE NJ Friday
evening. Overall, confid in this is low however with the system
looking disorganized and the trends are to minimize any qpf over the
area. We`ll just keep the slgt chc pops for now, with this low and
an upper trough crossing the area.

Much of the upcoming weekend will be fair, with high pressure
building over the area. Sunny weather is expected most of Saturday
and much of Sunday before clouds increase later Sunday. Temperatures
will still be a little below normal Saturday before moderating back
to normal levels Sunday. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon
in a warm advection pattern, but again confid in this is rather
low attm, so we`ll just have slgt chc or small chc pops only
for this time.

A better chc for rains (a some higher elevations snows) will develop
Sunday night and last into Monday as a upper trough begin to affect
the area. We`ll have chc pops for Sunday night and slgt chc pops for Monday.
We`ll carry the low pops into Tuesday as well, with the different
models having varying solutions for this period. Most of the precip
will be rain with the temperatures Monday and Tuesday having
moderated back to above normal by then. A few snow showers
across the southern Poconos are possible however.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Snow develops this evening with MVFR ceilings and
IFR/LIFR visibilities. The LIFR visibilities will be confined
to a period of generally moderate snow moving northeast across
the region from 2-5Z. Snow will accumulate to runways and
average an inch or so for most TAF sites with amounts around two
inches for KABE and KRDG.


NW winds 15-20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT will diminish fairly
quickly to 5-10 KT early this evening, and then will become LGT/VRB
tonight.

Moderate confidence with snow higher confidence with winds.

Thursday...Snow tapers off fairly quickly from west to east just
after 12Z Thursday, and conditions improve to VFR between 13-15Z.
Winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15 KT with 15-25 KT
gusts, perhaps a few KT higher at KACY. High confidence.

Outlook...
Thu night thru Fri...VFR.
Fri evening thru Sat morning...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl.
Sat afternoon thru Sunday...Mostly VFR.
Sunday night thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Slgt chc showers.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA conditions expected for the rest of tonight across the
southern waters NJ/DE as winds have decreased. There may be a
brief lull in SCA conditions on DE Bay. For the NJ northern
coastal ocean waters, gales continue through most of the night,
before diminishing to SCA levels.

SCA conditions will prevail through Thursday.

Snow will develop late tonight and into Thursday morning, mainly on
the NJ coastal ocean waters, and this will result in VSBY
restrictions.

Outlook...

Thu night...SCA conditions early, diminishing. Fair,
Fri thru Fri evening...Sub-SCA. Chc rain/snow.
Fri night thru Sat...SCA with low end Gale psbl. Chc rain/snow.
Sat night thru Sunday...Mostly sub-SCA. Mostly fair.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NJZ001-
     007>010-012-015-017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>453.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gaines/MPS/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/Miketta/MPS/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 132045
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system will move across the area tonight
and then offshore Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build over
the area later Thursday through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up along the coast Friday night. More high pressure will affect
the area much of this weekend. Another few disturbances will be
across the area beginning later Sunday and lasting into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Winds will diminish going into this evening to less than 10 mph
shortly after sunset, and then will become light and variable as the
evening progresses.

Clipper low moving through the Great Lakes will be over the Ohio
Valley after midnight, and then will pass through New Jersey and
move offshore just after daybreak Thursday. The low looks to weaken
as it approaches the spine of the Appalachians between midnight and
daybreak Thursday, but seems to strengthen a bit once it is through
the Appalachians in the pre-dawn hours.

As a result, light snow develops this evening, first over the Lehigh
Valley, and then spreads east through midnight. Around an inch or so
of snow accumulation is expected over the Lehigh Valley and into the
Poconos, but then the snow really gets going as the low intensifies.
Best lift and dynamics will be to the north, where an additional 1-
2" of snow is expected across the Lehigh Valley, Pocono Mountains,
and into northern New Jersey for a total of 2-3". Temperatures will
be cold enough to support 15-20:1 snowfall ratios, so it will not
take much liquid QPF to result in accumulating snow.

Although borderline for a Winter Weather Advisory, feel it is
prudent to issue one for Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Upper
Montgomery, Upper Bucks, Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, Carbon, and
Monroe counties, as the bulk of the 2-3" of snow will
accumulate just prior to and during the Thursday morning
commute. For the swath in southeast Pennsylvania, including
Chester, Delaware, Philadelphia, Lower Montgomery and Lower
Bucks counties, 1-2" of snow is expected, and this is close to
Winter Weather Advisory thresholds of 2", so the Advisory has
been issued based on the impacts of the snow falling during the
Thursday morning commute. Parts of northern New Jersey could get
close to 2", and for southern New Jersey and the Delmarva,
accumulations should be less than an inch, and not nearly as
widespread as the accumulations will be to the north.

Lows tonight range from the teens in the Poconos to the 20s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Snow tapers off fairly quickly after sunrise Thursday morning, but
not before dropping up to 1/2" of additional snowfall across
northern zones. Behind strengthening and departing low, west to
northwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
starting in the late morning hours. The pressure gradient relaxes
during the afternoon.

Temperatures moderate a bit Thursday afternoon compared to highs
today, but will still be below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be across the Middle Atlantic region
Thursday night and Friday. It will bring mostly fair and continued
cool weather to the area. Temperatures will remain some 5 to 10
degrees below normal. A quick moving low pressure system will move
just off the NJ/DE coastal areas Friday night. This could bring some
light precipitation (most likely snow) to parts of SE NJ Friday
evening. Overall, confid in this is low however with the system
looking disorganized and the trends are to minimize any qpf over the
area. We`ll just keep the slgt chc pops for now, with this low and
an upper trough crossing the area.

Much of the upcoming weekend will be fair, with high pressure
building over the area. Sunny weather is expected most of Saturday
and much of Sunday before clouds increase later Sunday. Temperatures
will still be a little below normal Saturday before moderating back
to normal levels Sunday. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon
in a warm advection pattern, but again confid in this is rather
low attm, so we`ll just have slgt chc or small chc pops only
for this time.

A better chc for rains (a some higher elevations snows) will develop
Sunday night and last into Monday as a upper trough begin to affect
the area. We`ll have chc pops for Sunday night and slgt chc pops for Monday.
We`ll carry the low pops into Tuesday as well, with the different
models having varying solutions for this period. Most of the precip
will be rain with the temperatures Monday and Tuesday having
moderated back to above normal by then. A few snow showers
across the southern Poconos are possible however.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Snow develops this evening, resulting in MVFR/IFR CIGs and
IFR VSBYs at KRDG-KABE-KTTN-KPNE-KPHL, though the lowest CIGs/VSBYs
will be at KRDG/KABE, where the snow will be heaviest. At these
terminals, around 2" of snow will accumulate. At KTTN-KPNE-KPHL,
around an inch of snow is expected. For KILG-KMIV-KACY, snow will
not be as widespread and long-lived, but brief IFR conditions are
possible.

NW winds 15-20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT will diminish fairly
quickly to 5-10 KT early this evening, and then will become LGT/VRB
tonight.

Thursday...Snow tapers off fairly quickly from west to east just
after 12Z Thursday, and conditions improve to VFR between 13-15Z.
Winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15 KT with 15-20 KT gusts,
perhaps a few KT higher at KACY.

Outlook...
Thu night thru Fri...VFR.
Fri evening thru Sat morning...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl.
Sat afternoon thru Sunday...Mostly VFR.
Sunday night thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Slgt chc showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales will diminish fairly quickly going into this evening over DE
Bay and the DE coastal ocean waters, and SCA conditions expected for
the rest of tonight. There may be a brief lull in SCA conditions on
DE Bay. For the NJ coastal ocean waters, gales continue through this
evening, before diminishing to SCA levels.

As low pressure approaches from the west, there looks to be another
surge in Gale force winds late tonight and into Thursday morning.
Otherwise SCA conditions will prevail through Thursday.

Snow will develop late tonight and into Thursday morning, mainly on
the NJ coastal ocean waters, and this will result in VSBY
restrictions.

Outlook...
Thu night...SCA conditions early, diminishing. Fair,
Fri thru Fri evening...Sub-SCA. Chc rain/snow.
Fri night thru Sat...SCA with low end Gale psbl. Chc rain/snow.
Sat night thru Sunday...Mostly sub-SCA. Mostly fair.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The strong west to northwest winds have lowered water levels on the
tidal Delaware River. Although winds will diminish this evening,
water levels may be low enough (i.e., around or below 2 feet below
MLLW) to cause some navigation issues during low tide into this
evening. We have issued a special weather statement to address this
concern. Water levels will return to more typical values later
tonight.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NJZ001-007-009.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...MPS/O`Hara
Marine...Miketta/MPS/O`Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 132035
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system will move across the area tonight
and then offshore Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build over
the area later Thursday through Friday. A low pressure system will
move up along the coast Friday night. More high pressure will affect
the area much of this weekend. Another few disturbances will be
across the area beginning later Sunday and lasting into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Winds will diminish going into this evening to less than 10 mph
shortly after sunset, and then will become light and variable as the
evening progresses.

Clipper low moving through the Great Lakes will be over the Ohio
Valley after midnight, and then will pass through New Jersey and
move offshore just after daybreak Thursday. The low looks to weaken
as it approaches the spine of the Appalachians between midnight and
daybreak Thursday, but seems to strengthen a bit once it is through
the Appalachians in the pre-dawn hours.

As a result, light snow develops this evening, first over the Lehigh
Valley, and then spreads east through midnight. Around an inch or so
of snow accumulation is expected over the Lehigh Valley and into the
Poconos, but then the snow really gets going as the low intensifies.
Best lift and dynamics will be to the north, where an additional 1-
2" of snow is expected across the Lehigh Valley, Pocono Mountains,
and into northern New Jersey for a total of 2-3". Temperatures will
be cold enough to support 15-20:1 snowfall ratios, so it will not
take much liquid QPF to result in accumulating snow.

Although borderline for a Winter Weather Advisory, feel it is
prudent to issue one for Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Warren, Sussex,
Carbon, and Monroe counties, as this snow will accumulate just prior
to and during the Thursday morning commute. For the rest of northern
New Jersey and into southeast Pennsylvania, around an inch of snow
is expected, perhaps close to 2" in parts of northwest New Jersey.
For these areas, we will issue a Special Weather Statement
highlighting the impacts to the morning commute. For southern New
Jersey and the Delmarva, accumulations should be less than an inch,
and not nearly as widespread as the accumulations will be to the
north.

Lows tonight range from the teens in the Poconos to the 20s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Snow tapers off fairly quickly after sunrise Thursday morning, but
not before dropping up to 1/2" of additional snowfall across
northern zones. Behind strengthening and departing low, west to
northwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
starting in the late morning hours. The pressure gradient relaxes
during the afternoon.

Temperatures moderate a bit Thursday afternoon compared to highs
today, but will still be below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be across the Middle Atlantic region
Thursday night and Friday. It will bring mostly fair and continued
cool weather to the area. Temperatures will remain some 5 to 10
degrees below normal. A quick moving low pressure system will move
just off the NJ/DE coastal areas Friday night. This could bring some
light precipitation (most likely snow) to parts of SE NJ Friday
evening. Overall, confid in this is low however with the system
looking disorganized and the trends are to minimize any qpf over the
area. We`ll just keep the slgt chc pops for now, with this low and
an upper trough crossing the area.

Much of the upcoming weekend will be fair, with high pressure
building over the area. Sunny weather is expected most of Saturday
and much of Sunday before clouds increase later Sunday. Temperatures
will still be a little below normal Saturday before moderating back
to normal levels Sunday. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon
in a warm advection pattern, but again confid in this is rather
low attm, so we`ll just have slgt chc or small chc pops only
for this time.

A better chc for rains (a some higher elevations snows) will develop
Sunday night and last into Monday as a upper trough begin to affect
the area. We`ll have chc pops for Sunday night and slgt chc pops for Monday.
We`ll carry the low pops into Tuesday as well, with the different
models having varying solutions for this period. Most of the precip
will be rain with the temperatures Monday and Tuesday having
moderated back to above normal by then. A few snow showers
across the southern Poconos are possible however.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Snow develops this evening, resulting in MVFR/IFR CIGs and
IFR VSBYs at KRDG-KABE-KTTN-KPNE-KPHL, though the lowest CIGs/VSBYs
will be at KRDG/KABE, where the snow will be heaviest. At these
terminals, around 2" of snow will accumulate. At KTTN-KPNE-KPHL,
around an inch of snow is expected. For KILG-KMIV-KACY, snow will
not be as widespread and long-lived, but brief IFR conditions are
possible.

NW winds 15-20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT will diminish fairly
quickly to 5-10 KT early this evening, and then will become LGT/VRB
tonight.

Thursday...Snow tapers off fairly quickly from west to east just
after 12Z Thursday, and conditions improve to VFR between 13-15Z.
Winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15 KT with 15-20 KT gusts,
perhaps a few KT higher at KACY.

Outlook...
Thu night thru Fri...VFR.
Fri evening thru Sat morning...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl.
Sat afternoon thru Sunday...Mostly VFR.
Sunday night thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Slgt chc showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales will diminish fairly quickly going into this evening over DE
Bay and the DE coastal ocean waters, and SCA conditions expected for
the rest of tonight. There may be a brief lull in SCA conditions on
DE Bay. For the NJ coastal ocean waters, gales continue through this
evening, before diminishing to SCA levels.

As low pressure approaches from the west, there looks to be another
surge in Gale force winds late tonight and into Thursday morning.
Otherwise SCA conditions will prevail through Thursday.

Snow will develop late tonight and into Thursday morning, mainly on
the NJ coastal ocean waters, and this will result in VSBY
restrictions.

Outlook...
Thu night...SCA conditions early, diminishing. Fair,
Fri thru Fri evening...Sub-SCA. Chc rain/snow.
Fri night thru Sat...SCA with low end Gale psbl. Chc rain/snow.
Sat night thru Sunday...Mostly sub-SCA. Mostly fair.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The strong west to northwest winds have lowered water levels on the
tidal Delaware River. Although winds will diminish this evening,
water levels may be low enough (i.e., around or below 2 feet below
MLLW) to cause some navigation issues during low tide into this
evening. We have issued a special weather statement to address this
concern. Water levels will return to more typical values later
tonight.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NJZ001-007-009.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...MPS/O`Hara
Marine...Miketta/MPS/O`Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 131431
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
931 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across to the south of the region
today. A clipper system will cross the region late tonight into
Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night and
Friday. A low pressure system will move up the Mid Atlantic
coast on Friday, remaining well offshore. A brief return to high
pressure is expected for the weekend. Another system will
affect the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With wind gusts across southern Delaware and parts of southeast
New Jersey falling below Wind Advisory criteria, will go ahead
and cancel the Wind Advisory. Will still have wind gusts 30-40
MPH through lunchtime, though.

Also, isolated snow showers will continue over the Poconos
through the late morning hours. Light accumulations are
possible, generally less than 1/2".

Otherwise, cold air advection continues with west-northwest
winds gusting 25-30 mph through this afternoon. Quite dry with
surface dewpoints generally in the single digits. Temperatures
in the 20s this morning will only top out around 30 this
afternoon, except for the Poconos, which is in the teens and may
only top out around 20. The resulting wind chill will stay in
the teens for most of the region, except for as low as 10 below
in the Poconos this morning, and then in the single digits this
afternoon.

Clouds may hang around the northern CWA for much of the day,
but the rest of the area should see some sunshine. Increasing
cloudiness near sunset will be possible as the next system makes
a rapid approach to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Clipper low should be entering the Mid-Atlantic region at the start
of the period, just downstream of a pivoting midlevel vort max in
the Great Lakes region. The surface low will weaken as it approaches
the spine of the Appalachians and redevelop offshore during the
overnight period, which suggests that the attendant precipitation
shield should be weakening as it approaches the CWA and
strengthening once it leaves the CWA (sorry, snow lovers).

Nevertheless, there will be snow overnight, but the combination of
waning dynamics, dry antecedent near-surface air, and orographic
shadowing should preclude snow amounts from exceeding a couple
inches to the northwest of the Fall Line and should generally be
under an inch to the southeast. Little if any snowfall is forecast
south of the Mason-Dixon Line. The snow should enter the region late
in the evening and be on the decrease by daybreak. Despite the light
amounts, the timing (and the subfreezing temperatures) suggests that
there will be impacts with the morning commute on Thursday. For
messaging purposes, it is important to stress that the lack of a
winter weather advisory (owing to light snow amounts) does not
equate to a lack of impacts. Some slick roads and treacherous travel
can be expected should the snow materialize as currently forecast.

Temperatures will not fall much from highs on Wednesday but should
drop a little bit during the evening hours, especially before the
denser cloud cover invades the region. Temperatures may reach their
minima prior to midnight before a slow rise in the warm-air
advection preceding the surface low`s trek/redevelopment offshore
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern continues through the extended period with
several waves of low pressure slated to move through the region.

Thursday...The clipper system quickly crosses the region early
Thursday, along with a strong shortwave. Snow will be falling early
and may make for a slick morning commute. The snow will start to
taper off through Thursday morning and we should see it end by early
afternoon across the forecast area. Winds may be gusty along the
coast, especially in the morning, but should subside through the day
as the low moves further offshore. Daytime highs will be fairly
cold across the area. Highs will range from the lower 20s across the
southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey to lower 40s across
southern Delaware and extreme southern New Jersey.

Thursday night through Friday night...High pressure will make its
way into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way up
the Mid Atlantic coast. Additionally, a couple of shortwaves will
rotate through the area on Friday. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, so moisture
may reach into our area and we could see some snow fall towards the
afternoon and into the evening. Some mixing along the coast will be
possible but it looks cold enough that the majority of the area will
see only snow fall. Snow should end from west to east Friday night
and fairly quickly as the system moves further away from the area
and out to sea.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure will slide across
the eastern United States on Saturday, bringing us a nice day of
quiet weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
Sunday morning. Warmer air will start to make its way towards the
region this weekend but we won`t start to feel the difference until
Sunday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s on
Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Another system will approach the
region sometime around Sunday night or Monday. The models diverge
with how to handle another clipper system to our north Sunday and a
developing low to our south. For now, will continue to mention the
chance for precipitation starting Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Warm air will move into the region in the southwesterly flow and we
may see a period of rain or mixed precipitation through the region.
Temperatures look to remain cold over the northwestern zones and
likely to remain all snow there. Plenty of uncertainty exists
bringing lower confidence through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with west to northwest winds 15-20 kt with 25-35 kt
gusts. Winds may begin to diminish a bit after 18Z. High
confidence.

Tonight...Sub-VFR CIGs and especially VSBYs should be expected
with snow likely to most of the terminals through portions of
the night (general timing between 02Z and 10Z, with longer
durations likely north of PHL). Runway accumulations may occur,
but should be around an inch or less. Winds will begin from the
southwest around 10 kts but should become light and variable
from late evening onward. Medium confidence in CIGs/VSBYs (with
low confidence in occurrence/timing of snow); high confidence in
winds.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in snow through
Thursday afternoon. Snow should clear out by 18Z and then mainly
VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds around 10 to 15
knots. Confidence: Moderate

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible in
snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Low to Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds
around 10 to 15 knots possible with higher gusts, mainly at KACY and
KMIV. Confidence: Low to Moderate

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions in
snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon. Southwest winds around
5 to 10 knots. Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
Gales continue across all marine zones at this time, with the
peak in the gusts likely through lunchtime. Latest model
forecasts a brief (around 6 hours) lull in winds (still
exceeding advisory thresholds) before increasing to near or just
above gale force off the Delaware coast again (albeit from
southwest winds rather than west/northwest), while areas farther
north likely stay at advisory levels.

Seas are running about a foot above model forecasts, so made
some adjustments to these through the late evening hours to
account for this.

At least small craft advisory conditions are expected tonight
as winds become more southwesterly in advance of the next
system. Gusts may reach gale-force again in the Delaware coastal
waters after midnight, but confidence is rather low at this
time. Some snow may develop, generally after midnight and
primarily for the New Jersey coastal waters, with visibility
restrictions likely should the snow materialize.

Outlook...

Thursday ...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through
Thursday. Both winds and seas are expected to drop through the day,
falling below SCA criteria by Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are
expected.

Friday night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. West to northwest winds will gusts around 25 knots
possible. Seas will increase and near 5 feet.

Sunday...Sub-advisory conditions expected. Winds may near 25
knots and seas may near 5 feet late Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The strong west to northwest winds occurring overnight have
lowered water levels on the tidal Delaware River. As these winds
are expected to continue through the day, water levels may be
low enough (i.e., around or below 2 feet below MLLW) to cause
some navigation issues during low tide this afternoon and this
evening. We have issued a special weather statement to address
this concern. Winds should diminish tonight, which will allow
water levels to return to more typical values.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS/MPS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola/MPS
Marine...CMS/Meola/MPS
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 131147
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
647 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across to the south of the region
today. A clipper system will cross the region late tonight into
Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night and
Friday. A low pressure system will move up the Mid Atlantic
coast on Friday, remaining well offshore. A brief return to high
pressure is expected for the weekend. Another system will
affect the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 am update: Forecast is in good shape, and no major changes
were made at this time.

Previous discussion...

The winds are howling this morning as strong cold-air advection
upstream of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday
continues. Boundary-layer mixing and advection have been sufficient
enough to generate advisory-level gusts near Delaware Bay throughout
the night, and I expect these to continue through the morning hours.
There may be a need to extend the advisory a few hours based on
forecast soundings (accounting for a low bias in the model-forecast
gusts so far), but confidence is rather low since the trend is
distinctly downward with the winds during the afternoon. I will be
watching wind observations closely the next few hours to determine
if the advisory needs an areal expansion as well. A distinct surge
in the winds occurred between 10 pm and midnight, which was strongly
coincident with the most intense pressure rise tendencies, but I
expect another surge near daybreak as diurnal heating begins and the
surface pressure gradient increases. A particular concern is the
higher terrain in the northern CWA, which the models are
highlighting as nearing advisory-level this morning. Winds should
begin decreasing during the mid and late afternoon hours, but will
probably remain gusty through sunset.

Other main question today is the potential for occasional snow
showers this morning in the southern Poconos and adjacent far
northwest New Jersey. Models have so far overdone the snow showers
in this area (with model biases with snow accumulation at least on
the order of one inch on average during the past 24 hours). A rather
strong midlevel vort max moves southeastward through the northern
Mid-Atlantic this morning, so felt the need to retain some PoPs in
this area, but snow accumulations should remain below a half inch,
if anything occurs at all.

Given the winds and cold-air advection (the latter of which will be
weakening through the day), today will be uncomfortably cold. I
nudged temperatures downward across the area, particularly given the
somewhat colder look to statistical MOS output with the 00Z data. In
general, I kept temperatures about a degree or two below consensus
of ECS/MAV/MET but did throw in hi-res model output for hourly
temperatures as well given their much better performance overnight
versus the statistical guidance (a typical result in rapid changes
to temperature regimes). Wind chills will remain in the single
digits in the Poconos (and start below zero this morning), with the
rest of the area struggling to reach 20.

Clouds may hang around the northern CWA for much of the day, but the
rest of the area should see some sunshine. Increasing cloudiness
near sunset will be possible as the next system makes a rapid
approach to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Clipper low should be entering the Mid-Atlantic region at the start
of the period, just downstream of a pivoting midlevel vort max in
the Great Lakes region. The surface low will weaken as it approaches
the spine of the Appalachians and redevelop offshore during the
overnight period, which suggests that the attendant precipitation
shield should be weakening as it approaches the CWA and
strengthening once it leaves the CWA (sorry, snow lovers).

Nevertheless, there will be snow overnight, but the combination of
waning dynamics, dry antecedent near-surface air, and orographic
shadowing should preclude snow amounts from exceeding a couple
inches to the northwest of the Fall Line and should generally be
under an inch to the southeast. Little if any snowfall is forecast
south of the Mason-Dixon Line. The snow should enter the region late
in the evening and be on the decrease by daybreak. Despite the light
amounts, the timing (and the subfreezing temperatures) suggests that
there will be impacts with the morning commute on Thursday. For
messaging purposes, it is important to stress that the lack of a
winter weather advisory (owing to light snow amounts) does not
equate to a lack of impacts. Some slick roads and treacherous travel
can be expected should the snow materialize as currently forecast.

Temperatures will not fall much from highs on Wednesday but should
drop a little bit during the evening hours, especially before the
denser cloud cover invades the region. Temperatures may reach their
minima prior to midnight before a slow rise in the warm-air
advection preceding the surface low`s trek/redevelopment offshore
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern continues through the extended period with
several waves of low pressure slated to move through the region.

Thursday...The clipper system quickly crosses the region early
Thursday, along with a strong shortwave. Snow will be falling early
and may make for a slick morning commute. The snow will start to
taper off through Thursday morning and we should see it end by early
afternoon across the forecast area. Winds may be gusty along the
coast, especially in the morning, but should subside through the day
as the low moves further offshore. Daytime highs will be fairly
cold across the area. Highs will range from the lower 20s across the
southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey to lower 40s across
southern Delaware and extreme southern New Jersey.

Thursday night through Friday night...High pressure will make its
way into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way up
the Mid Atlantic coast. Additionally, a couple of shortwaves will
rotate through the area on Friday. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, so moisture
may reach into our area and we could see some snow fall towards the
afternoon and into the evening. Some mixing along the coast will be
possible but it looks cold enough that the majority of the area will
see only snow fall. Snow should end from west to east Friday night
and fairly quickly as the system moves further away from the area
and out to sea.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure will slide across
the eastern United States on Saturday, bringing us a nice day of
quiet weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
Sunday morning. Warmer air will start to make its way towards the
region this weekend but we won`t start to feel the difference until
Sunday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s on
Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Another system will approach the
region sometime around Sunday night or Monday. The models diverge
with how to handle another clipper system to our north Sunday and a
developing low to our south. For now, will continue to mention the
chance for precipitation starting Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Warm air will move into the region in the southwesterly flow and we
may see a period of rain or mixed precipitation through the region.
Temperatures look to remain cold over the northwestern zones and
likely to remain all snow there. Plenty of uncertainty exists
bringing lower confidence through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Wednesday...VFR with 260-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 12
to 25 kts with gusts frequently at or above 30 kts, especially
in the morning. Very high confidence.

Wednesday night...Sub-VFR CIGs and especially VSBYs should be
expected with snow likely to most of the terminals through
portions of the night (general timing between 02Z and 10Z, with
longer durations likely north of PHL). Runway accumulations may
occur, but should be around an inch or less. Winds will begin
from the southwest around 10 kts but should become light and
variable from late evening onward. Medium confidence in
CIGs/VSBYs (with low confidence in occurrence/timing of snow);
high confidence in winds.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in snow through
Thursday afternoon. Snow should clear out by 18Z and then mainly
VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds around 10 to 15
knots. Confidence: Moderate

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible in
snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Low to Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds
around 10 to 15 knots possible with higher gusts, mainly at KACY and
KMIV. Confidence: Low to Moderate

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions in
snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon. Southwest winds around
5 to 10 knots. Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
630 am update: Gales continue across all marine zones at this
time, with the peak in the gusts likely between now and noon.
Latest model forecasts a brief (around 6 hours) lull in winds
(still exceeding advisory thresholds) before increasing to near
or just above gale force off the Delaware coast again (albeit
from southwest winds rather than west/northwest), while areas
farther north likely stay at advisory levels.

Seas are running about a foot above model forecasts, so made
some adjustments to these through the late evening hours to
account for this.

Previous discussion...

Gale warning continues for all of the waters today, though I did end
the gale warning at 6 pm for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters
given faster forecast timing of winds decreasing late this
afternoon. Gales are in full swing currently, with gusts in Lower
Delaware Bay not far from storm warning criteria. These gusts
(forecast to remain just shy of storm warning thresholds) should
peak this morning and decrease rather quickly this afternoon.

At least small craft advisory conditions are expected tonight as
winds become more southwesterly in advance of the next system. Gusts
may reach gale-force again in the Delaware coastal waters after
midnight, but confidence is rather low at this time. Some snow may
develop, generally after midnight and primarily for the New Jersey
coastal waters, with visibility restrictions likely should the snow
materialize.

Outlook...

Thursday ...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through
Thursday. Both winds and seas are expected to drop through the day,
falling below SCA criteria by Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are
expected.

Friday night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. West to northwest winds will gusts around 25 knots
possible. Seas will increase and near 5 feet.

Sunday...Sub-advisory conditions expected. Winds may near 25
knots and seas may near 5 feet late Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The strong west to northwest winds occurring overnight have
lowered water levels on the tidal Delaware River. As these winds
are expected to continue through the day, water levels may be
low enough (i.e., around or below 2 feet below MLLW) to cause
some navigation issues during low tide this afternoon and this
evening. We have issued a special weather statement to address
this concern. Winds should diminish tonight, which will allow
water levels to return to more typical values.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ021>025.
DE...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola
Tides/Coastal Flooding...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 131147
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
647 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across to the south of the region
today. A clipper system will cross the region late tonight into
Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night and
Friday. A low pressure system will move up the Mid Atlantic
coast on Friday, remaining well offshore. A brief return to high
pressure is expected for the weekend. Another system will
affect the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 am update: Forecast is in good shape, and no major changes
were made at this time.

Previous discussion...

The winds are howling this morning as strong cold-air advection
upstream of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday
continues. Boundary-layer mixing and advection have been sufficient
enough to generate advisory-level gusts near Delaware Bay throughout
the night, and I expect these to continue through the morning hours.
There may be a need to extend the advisory a few hours based on
forecast soundings (accounting for a low bias in the model-forecast
gusts so far), but confidence is rather low since the trend is
distinctly downward with the winds during the afternoon. I will be
watching wind observations closely the next few hours to determine
if the advisory needs an areal expansion as well. A distinct surge
in the winds occurred between 10 pm and midnight, which was strongly
coincident with the most intense pressure rise tendencies, but I
expect another surge near daybreak as diurnal heating begins and the
surface pressure gradient increases. A particular concern is the
higher terrain in the northern CWA, which the models are
highlighting as nearing advisory-level this morning. Winds should
begin decreasing during the mid and late afternoon hours, but will
probably remain gusty through sunset.

Other main question today is the potential for occasional snow
showers this morning in the southern Poconos and adjacent far
northwest New Jersey. Models have so far overdone the snow showers
in this area (with model biases with snow accumulation at least on
the order of one inch on average during the past 24 hours). A rather
strong midlevel vort max moves southeastward through the northern
Mid-Atlantic this morning, so felt the need to retain some PoPs in
this area, but snow accumulations should remain below a half inch,
if anything occurs at all.

Given the winds and cold-air advection (the latter of which will be
weakening through the day), today will be uncomfortably cold. I
nudged temperatures downward across the area, particularly given the
somewhat colder look to statistical MOS output with the 00Z data. In
general, I kept temperatures about a degree or two below consensus
of ECS/MAV/MET but did throw in hi-res model output for hourly
temperatures as well given their much better performance overnight
versus the statistical guidance (a typical result in rapid changes
to temperature regimes). Wind chills will remain in the single
digits in the Poconos (and start below zero this morning), with the
rest of the area struggling to reach 20.

Clouds may hang around the northern CWA for much of the day, but the
rest of the area should see some sunshine. Increasing cloudiness
near sunset will be possible as the next system makes a rapid
approach to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Clipper low should be entering the Mid-Atlantic region at the start
of the period, just downstream of a pivoting midlevel vort max in
the Great Lakes region. The surface low will weaken as it approaches
the spine of the Appalachians and redevelop offshore during the
overnight period, which suggests that the attendant precipitation
shield should be weakening as it approaches the CWA and
strengthening once it leaves the CWA (sorry, snow lovers).

Nevertheless, there will be snow overnight, but the combination of
waning dynamics, dry antecedent near-surface air, and orographic
shadowing should preclude snow amounts from exceeding a couple
inches to the northwest of the Fall Line and should generally be
under an inch to the southeast. Little if any snowfall is forecast
south of the Mason-Dixon Line. The snow should enter the region late
in the evening and be on the decrease by daybreak. Despite the light
amounts, the timing (and the subfreezing temperatures) suggests that
there will be impacts with the morning commute on Thursday. For
messaging purposes, it is important to stress that the lack of a
winter weather advisory (owing to light snow amounts) does not
equate to a lack of impacts. Some slick roads and treacherous travel
can be expected should the snow materialize as currently forecast.

Temperatures will not fall much from highs on Wednesday but should
drop a little bit during the evening hours, especially before the
denser cloud cover invades the region. Temperatures may reach their
minima prior to midnight before a slow rise in the warm-air
advection preceding the surface low`s trek/redevelopment offshore
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern continues through the extended period with
several waves of low pressure slated to move through the region.

Thursday...The clipper system quickly crosses the region early
Thursday, along with a strong shortwave. Snow will be falling early
and may make for a slick morning commute. The snow will start to
taper off through Thursday morning and we should see it end by early
afternoon across the forecast area. Winds may be gusty along the
coast, especially in the morning, but should subside through the day
as the low moves further offshore. Daytime highs will be fairly
cold across the area. Highs will range from the lower 20s across the
southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey to lower 40s across
southern Delaware and extreme southern New Jersey.

Thursday night through Friday night...High pressure will make its
way into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way up
the Mid Atlantic coast. Additionally, a couple of shortwaves will
rotate through the area on Friday. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, so moisture
may reach into our area and we could see some snow fall towards the
afternoon and into the evening. Some mixing along the coast will be
possible but it looks cold enough that the majority of the area will
see only snow fall. Snow should end from west to east Friday night
and fairly quickly as the system moves further away from the area
and out to sea.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure will slide across
the eastern United States on Saturday, bringing us a nice day of
quiet weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
Sunday morning. Warmer air will start to make its way towards the
region this weekend but we won`t start to feel the difference until
Sunday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s on
Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Another system will approach the
region sometime around Sunday night or Monday. The models diverge
with how to handle another clipper system to our north Sunday and a
developing low to our south. For now, will continue to mention the
chance for precipitation starting Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Warm air will move into the region in the southwesterly flow and we
may see a period of rain or mixed precipitation through the region.
Temperatures look to remain cold over the northwestern zones and
likely to remain all snow there. Plenty of uncertainty exists
bringing lower confidence through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Wednesday...VFR with 260-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 12
to 25 kts with gusts frequently at or above 30 kts, especially
in the morning. Very high confidence.

Wednesday night...Sub-VFR CIGs and especially VSBYs should be
expected with snow likely to most of the terminals through
portions of the night (general timing between 02Z and 10Z, with
longer durations likely north of PHL). Runway accumulations may
occur, but should be around an inch or less. Winds will begin
from the southwest around 10 kts but should become light and
variable from late evening onward. Medium confidence in
CIGs/VSBYs (with low confidence in occurrence/timing of snow);
high confidence in winds.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in snow through
Thursday afternoon. Snow should clear out by 18Z and then mainly
VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds around 10 to 15
knots. Confidence: Moderate

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible in
snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Low to Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds
around 10 to 15 knots possible with higher gusts, mainly at KACY and
KMIV. Confidence: Low to Moderate

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions in
snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon. Southwest winds around
5 to 10 knots. Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
630 am update: Gales continue across all marine zones at this
time, with the peak in the gusts likely between now and noon.
Latest model forecasts a brief (around 6 hours) lull in winds
(still exceeding advisory thresholds) before increasing to near
or just above gale force off the Delaware coast again (albeit
from southwest winds rather than west/northwest), while areas
farther north likely stay at advisory levels.

Seas are running about a foot above model forecasts, so made
some adjustments to these through the late evening hours to
account for this.

Previous discussion...

Gale warning continues for all of the waters today, though I did end
the gale warning at 6 pm for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters
given faster forecast timing of winds decreasing late this
afternoon. Gales are in full swing currently, with gusts in Lower
Delaware Bay not far from storm warning criteria. These gusts
(forecast to remain just shy of storm warning thresholds) should
peak this morning and decrease rather quickly this afternoon.

At least small craft advisory conditions are expected tonight as
winds become more southwesterly in advance of the next system. Gusts
may reach gale-force again in the Delaware coastal waters after
midnight, but confidence is rather low at this time. Some snow may
develop, generally after midnight and primarily for the New Jersey
coastal waters, with visibility restrictions likely should the snow
materialize.

Outlook...

Thursday ...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through
Thursday. Both winds and seas are expected to drop through the day,
falling below SCA criteria by Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are
expected.

Friday night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. West to northwest winds will gusts around 25 knots
possible. Seas will increase and near 5 feet.

Sunday...Sub-advisory conditions expected. Winds may near 25
knots and seas may near 5 feet late Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The strong west to northwest winds occurring overnight have
lowered water levels on the tidal Delaware River. As these winds
are expected to continue through the day, water levels may be
low enough (i.e., around or below 2 feet below MLLW) to cause
some navigation issues during low tide this afternoon and this
evening. We have issued a special weather statement to address
this concern. Winds should diminish tonight, which will allow
water levels to return to more typical values.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ021>025.
DE...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola
Tides/Coastal Flooding...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 131133
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
633 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across to the south of the region
today. A clipper system will cross the region late tonight into
Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night and
Friday. A low pressure system will move up the Mid Atlantic
coast on Friday, remaining well offshore. A brief return to high
pressure is expected for the weekend. Another system will
affect the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 am update: Forecast is in good shape, and no major changes
were made at this time.

Previous discussion...

The winds are howling this morning as strong cold-air advection
upstream of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday
continues. Boundary-layer mixing and advection have been sufficient
enough to generate advisory-level gusts near Delaware Bay throughout
the night, and I expect these to continue through the morning hours.
There may be a need to extend the advisory a few hours based on
forecast soundings (accounting for a low bias in the model-forecast
gusts so far), but confidence is rather low since the trend is
distinctly downward with the winds during the afternoon. I will be
watching wind observations closely the next few hours to determine
if the advisory needs an areal expansion as well. A distinct surge
in the winds occurred between 10 pm and midnight, which was strongly
coincident with the most intense pressure rise tendencies, but I
expect another surge near daybreak as diurnal heating begins and the
surface pressure gradient increases. A particular concern is the
higher terrain in the northern CWA, which the models are
highlighting as nearing advisory-level this morning. Winds should
begin decreasing during the mid and late afternoon hours, but will
probably remain gusty through sunset.

Other main question today is the potential for occasional snow
showers this morning in the southern Poconos and adjacent far
northwest New Jersey. Models have so far overdone the snow showers
in this area (with model biases with snow accumulation at least on
the order of one inch on average during the past 24 hours). A rather
strong midlevel vort max moves southeastward through the northern
Mid-Atlantic this morning, so felt the need to retain some PoPs in
this area, but snow accumulations should remain below a half inch,
if anything occurs at all.

Given the winds and cold-air advection (the latter of which will be
weakening through the day), today will be uncomfortably cold. I
nudged temperatures downward across the area, particularly given the
somewhat colder look to statistical MOS output with the 00Z data. In
general, I kept temperatures about a degree or two below consensus
of ECS/MAV/MET but did throw in hi-res model output for hourly
temperatures as well given their much better performance overnight
versus the statistical guidance (a typical result in rapid changes
to temperature regimes). Wind chills will remain in the single
digits in the Poconos (and start below zero this morning), with the
rest of the area struggling to reach 20.

Clouds may hang around the northern CWA for much of the day, but the
rest of the area should see some sunshine. Increasing cloudiness
near sunset will be possible as the next system makes a rapid
approach to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Clipper low should be entering the Mid-Atlantic region at the start
of the period, just downstream of a pivoting midlevel vort max in
the Great Lakes region. The surface low will weaken as it approaches
the spine of the Appalachians and redevelop offshore during the
overnight period, which suggests that the attendant precipitation
shield should be weakening as it approaches the CWA and
strengthening once it leaves the CWA (sorry, snow lovers).

Nevertheless, there will be snow overnight, but the combination of
waning dynamics, dry antecedent near-surface air, and orographic
shadowing should preclude snow amounts from exceeding a couple
inches to the northwest of the Fall Line and should generally be
under an inch to the southeast. Little if any snowfall is forecast
south of the Mason-Dixon Line. The snow should enter the region late
in the evening and be on the decrease by daybreak. Despite the light
amounts, the timing (and the subfreezing temperatures) suggests that
there will be impacts with the morning commute on Thursday. For
messaging purposes, it is important to stress that the lack of a
winter weather advisory (owing to light snow amounts) does not
equate to a lack of impacts. Some slick roads and treacherous travel
can be expected should the snow materialize as currently forecast.

Temperatures will not fall much from highs on Wednesday but should
drop a little bit during the evening hours, especially before the
denser cloud cover invades the region. Temperatures may reach their
minima prior to midnight before a slow rise in the warm-air
advection preceding the surface low`s trek/redevelopment offshore
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern continues through the extended period with
several waves of low pressure slated to move through the region.

Thursday...The clipper system quickly crosses the region early
Thursday, along with a strong shortwave. Snow will be falling early
and may make for a slick morning commute. The snow will start to
taper off through Thursday morning and we should see it end by early
afternoon across the forecast area. Winds may be gusty along the
coast, especially in the morning, but should subside through the day
as the low moves further offshore. Daytime highs will be fairly
cold across the area. Highs will range from the lower 20s across the
southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey to lower 40s across
southern Delaware and extreme southern New Jersey.

Thursday night through Friday night...High pressure will make its
way into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way up
the Mid Atlantic coast. Additionally, a couple of shortwaves will
rotate through the area on Friday. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, so moisture
may reach into our area and we could see some snow fall towards the
afternoon and into the evening. Some mixing along the coast will be
possible but it looks cold enough that the majority of the area will
see only snow fall. Snow should end from west to east Friday night
and fairly quickly as the system moves further away from the area
and out to sea.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure will slide across
the eastern United States on Saturday, bringing us a nice day of
quiet weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
Sunday morning. Warmer air will start to make its way towards the
region this weekend but we won`t start to feel the difference until
Sunday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s on
Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Another system will approach the
region sometime around Sunday night or Monday. The models diverge
with how to handle another clipper system to our north Sunday and a
developing low to our south. For now, will continue to mention the
chance for precipitation starting Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Warm air will move into the region in the southwesterly flow and we
may see a period of rain or mixed precipitation through the region.
Temperatures look to remain cold over the northwestern zones and
likely to remain all snow there. Plenty of uncertainty exists
bringing lower confidence through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Wednesday...VFR with 260-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 12
to 25 kts with gusts frequently at or above 30 kts, especially
in the morning. Very high confidence.

Wednesday night...Sub-VFR CIGs and especially VSBYs should be
expected with snow likely to most of the terminals through
portions of the night (general timing between 02Z and 10Z, with
longer durations likely north of PHL). Runway accumulations may
occur, but should be around an inch or less. Winds will begin
from the southwest around 10 kts but should become light and
variable from late evening onward. Medium confidence in
CIGs/VSBYs (with low confidence in occurrence/timing of snow);
high confidence in winds.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in snow through
Thursday afternoon. Snow should clear out by 18Z and then mainly
VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds around 10 to 15
knots. Confidence: Moderate

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible in
snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Low to Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds
around 10 to 15 knots possible with higher gusts, mainly at KACY and
KMIV. Confidence: Low to Moderate

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions in
snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon. Southwest winds around
5 to 10 knots. Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
630 am update: Gales continue across all marine zones at this
time, with the peak in the gusts likely between now and noon.
Latest model forecasts a brief (around 6 hours) lull in winds
(still exceeding advisory thresholds) before increasing to near
or just above gale force off the Delaware coast again (albeit
from southwest winds rather than west/northwest), while areas
farther north likely stay at advisory levels.

Seas are running about a foot above model forecasts, so made
some adjustments to these through the late evening hours to
account for this.

Previous discussion...

Gale warning continues for all of the waters today, though I did end
the gale warning at 6 pm for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters
given faster forecast timing of winds decreasing late this
afternoon. Gales are in full swing currently, with gusts in Lower
Delaware Bay not far from storm warning criteria. These gusts
(forecast to remain just shy of storm warning thresholds) should
peak this morning and decrease rather quickly this afternoon.

At least small craft advisory conditions are expected tonight as
winds become more southwesterly in advance of the next system. Gusts
may reach gale-force again in the Delaware coastal waters after
midnight, but confidence is rather low at this time. Some snow may
develop, generally after midnight and primarily for the New Jersey
coastal waters, with visibility restrictions likely should the snow
materialize.

Outlook...

Thursday ...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through
Thursday. Both winds and seas are expected to drop through the day,
falling below SCA criteria by Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are
expected.

Friday night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. West to northwest winds will gusts around 25 knots
possible. Seas will increase and near 5 feet.

Sunday...Sub-advisory conditions expected. Winds may near 25
knots and seas may near 5 feet late Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ021>025.
DE...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 130849
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
349 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across to the south of the region
today. A clipper system will cross the region late tonight into
Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night and
Friday. A low pressure system will move up the Mid Atlantic
coast on Friday, remaining well offshore. A brief return to high
pressure is expected for the weekend. Another system will
affect the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The winds are howling this morning as strong cold-air advection
upstream of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday
continues. Boundary-layer mixing and advection have been sufficient
enough to generate advisory-level gusts near Delaware Bay throughout
the night, and I expect these to continue through the morning hours.
There may be a need to extend the advisory a few hours based on
forecast soundings (accounting for a low bias in the model-forecast
gusts so far), but confidence is rather low since the trend is
distinctly downward with the winds during the afternoon. I will be
watching wind observations closely the next few hours to determine
if the advisory needs an areal expansion as well. A distinct surge
in the winds occurred between 10 pm and midnight, which was strongly
coincident with the most intense pressure rise tendencies, but I
expect another surge near daybreak as diurnal heating begins and the
surface pressure gradient increases. A particular concern is the
higher terrain in the northern CWA, which the models are
highlighting as nearing advisory-level this morning. Winds should
begin decreasing during the mid and late afternoon hours, but will
probably remain gusty through sunset.

Other main question today is the potential for occasional snow
showers this morning in the southern Poconos and adjacent far
northwest New Jersey. Models have so far overdone the snow showers
in this area (with model biases with snow accumulation at least on
the order of one inch on average during the past 24 hours). A rather
strong midlevel vort max moves southeastward through the northern
Mid-Atlantic this morning, so felt the need to retain some PoPs in
this area, but snow accumulations should remain below a half inch,
if anything occurs at all.

Given the winds and cold-air advection (the latter of which will be
weakening through the day), today will be uncomfortably cold. I
nudged temperatures downward across the area, particularly given the
somewhat colder look to statistical MOS output with the 00Z data. In
general, I kept temperatures about a degree or two below consensus
of ECS/MAV/MET but did throw in hi-res model output for hourly
temperatures as well given their much better performance overnight
versus the statistical guidance (a typical result in rapid changes
to temperature regimes). Wind chills will remain in the single
digits in the Poconos (and start below zero this morning), with the
rest of the area struggling to reach 20.

Clouds may hang around the northern CWA for much of the day, but the
rest of the area should see some sunshine. Increasing cloudiness
near sunset will be possible as the next system makes a rapid
approach to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Clipper low should be entering the Mid-Atlantic region at the start
of the period, just downstream of a pivoting midlevel vort max in
the Great Lakes region. The surface low will weaken as it approaches
the spine of the Appalachians and redevelop offshore during the
overnight period, which suggests that the attendant precipitation
shield should be weakening as it approaches the CWA and
strengthening once it leaves the CWA (sorry, snow lovers).

Nevertheless, there will be snow overnight, but the combination of
waning dynamics, dry antecedent near-surface air, and orographic
shadowing should preclude snow amounts from exceeding a couple
inches to the northwest of the Fall Line and should generally be
under an inch to the southeast. Little if any snowfall is forecast
south of the Mason-Dixon Line. The snow should enter the region late
in the evening and be on the decrease by daybreak. Despite the light
amounts, the timing (and the subfreezing temperatures) suggests that
there will be impacts with the morning commute on Thursday. For
messaging purposes, it is important to stress that the lack of a
winter weather advisory (owing to light snow amounts) does not
equate to a lack of impacts. Some slick roads and treacherous travel
can be expected should the snow materialize as currently forecast.

Temperatures will not fall much from highs on Wednesday but should
drop a little bit during the evening hours, especially before the
denser cloud cover invades the region. Temperatures may reach their
minima prior to midnight before a slow rise in the warm-air
advection preceding the surface low`s trek/redevelopment offshore
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern continues through the extended period with
several waves of low pressure slated to move through the region.

Thursday...The clipper system quickly crosses the region early
Thursday, along with a strong shortwave. Snow will be falling early
and may make for a slick morning commute. The snow will start to
taper off through Thursday morning and we should see it end by early
afternoon across the forecast area. Winds may be gusty along the
coast, especially in the morning, but should subside through the day
as the low moves further offshore. Daytime highs will be fairly
cold across the area. Highs will range from the lower 20s across the
southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey to lower 40s across
southern Delaware and extreme southern New Jersey.

Thursday night through Friday night...High pressure will make its
way into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the Carolina coast and makes its way up
the Mid Atlantic coast. Additionally, a couple of shortwaves will
rotate through the area on Friday. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, so moisture
may reach into our area and we could see some snow fall towards the
afternoon and into the evening. Some mixing along the coast will be
possible but it looks cold enough that the majority of the area will
see only snow fall. Snow should end from west to east Friday night
and fairly quickly as the system moves further away from the area
and out to sea.

Saturday through Sunday morning...High pressure will slide across
the eastern United States on Saturday, bringing us a nice day of
quiet weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
Sunday morning. Warmer air will start to make its way towards the
region this weekend but we won`t start to feel the difference until
Sunday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s on
Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Another system will approach the
region sometime around Sunday night or Monday. The models diverge
with how to handle another clipper system to our north Sunday and a
developing low to our south. For now, will continue to mention the
chance for precipitation starting Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Warm air will move into the region in the southwesterly flow and we
may see a period of rain or mixed precipitation through the region.
Temperatures look to remain cold over the northwestern zones and
likely to remain all snow there. Plenty of uncertainty exists
bringing lower confidence through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR with 270-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 10
to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts. Very high confidence.

Wednesday...VFR with 260-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 12 to 25
kts with gusts frequently at or above 30 kts, especially in the
morning. Very high confidence.

Wednesday night...Sub-VFR CIGs/VSBYs should be expected with snow
likely to affect RDG/ABE most of the night with potential impacts at
TTN/PNE/PHL/ILG as well. Runway accumulations may occur, but should
be around an inch or less. Winds will begin from the southwest
around 10 kts but should become light and variable from late evening
onward. Medium confidence in CIGs/VSBYs (with low confidence in
occurrence/timing of snow); high confidence in winds.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in snow through
Thursday afternoon. Snow should clear out by 18Z and then mainly
VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds around 10 to 15
knots. Confidence: Moderate

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible in
snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.
Confidence: Low to Moderate

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds
around 10 to 15 knots possible with higher gusts, mainly at KACY and
KMIV. Confidence: Low to Moderate

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions in
snow/rain showers possible Sunday afternoon. Southwest winds around
5 to 10 knots. Confidence: Low

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning continues for all of the waters today, though I did end
the gale warning at 6 pm for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters
given faster forecast timing of winds decreasing late this
afternoon. Gales are in full swing currently, with gusts in Lower
Delaware Bay not far from storm warning criteria. These gusts
(forecast to remain just shy of storm warning thresholds) should
peak this morning and decrease rather quickly this afternoon.

At least small craft advisory conditions are expected tonight as
winds become more southwesterly in advance of the next system. Gusts
may reach gale-force again in the Delaware coastal waters after
midnight, but confidence is rather low at this time. Some snow may
develop, generally after midnight and primarily for the New Jersey
coastal waters, with visibility restrictions likely should the snow
materialize.

Outlook...

Thursday ...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through
Thursday. Both winds and seas are expected to drop through the day,
falling below SCA criteria by Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are
expected.

Friday night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. West to northwest winds will gusts around 25 knots
possible. Seas will increase and near 5 feet.

Sunday...Sub-advisory conditions expected. Winds may near 25
knots and seas may near 5 feet late Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ021>025.
DE...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 130547
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1247 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this evening, and then
high pressure passes south of the region on Wednesday. Several
weak low pressure systems will impact the area through the end
of the work week. High pressure returns for the weekend, and
then another system will affect the East Coast early in the new
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 am update: Made several changes to the grids, most notably
a big uptick in wind gusts based on recent observations about 5
to 10 mph too low across the board. Model soundings and momentum
transfer calculations are not really catching on to the stronger
gusts this evening, so most of the amendments involved a
positive adjustment of 3-7 kts greater than the most aggressive
hi-res models. Current wind advisory looks good, with
verification already occurring along the immediate coast of
Delaware Bay. However, based on gusts farther northwest the past
couple of hours, the advisory may require some expansion. This
is especially true given that the peak in wind gusts will likely
occur late tonight through tomorrow morning. Will monitor trends
the next couple of hours and make a final decision at 3:30.

Sky cover and temperatures were also adjusted considerably.
Temperatures are much lower than forecast, especially where
cloud cover has thinned or eroded (i.e., especially southern and
western CWA). Cold air advection is winning the battle tonight
over mixing, with the added bone chilling of the strong winds
producing wind chills below zero in the southern Poconos.
Forecast wind chills are around -10 by morning, which is not far
from advisory thresholds.

PoPs/Wx grids unchanged, but coverage of snow showers has been
sparse at best. A perturbation later tonight will likely enhance
snow showers for a time in the southern Poconos, but models have
been overdoing the precipitation during the whole event and do
not see much reason why this trend will not continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
1230 am update: Adjusted wind grids upward considerably (3-7
kts) most of the day given current trends and a clear negative
bias with the models so far.

Previous discussion below...

The core of the cold air will begin moving away Wednesday. The
ridge will cross the region late in the day. A mostly sunny and
cold day is expected across all areas. Highs will reach the
mid/upper 20s north and low 30s elsewhere. Winds will remain
gusty through much of the day, but then begin to taper off late.
Strong wind gusts will continue through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly active pattern is in place for the Long Term as
several weak clipper systems pass through the region through the
end of the work week, and then again for the start of the new
week. Each system will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air that
will keep temperatures below normal into the weekend.
Temperatures may then moderate a bit back closer to normal for
the start of the new week.

The first clipper system approaches Wednesday evening and then
slowly works its way across the region before moving offshore by
Thursday afternoon. The surface low tracks from the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and moves off the Mid-
Atlantic coast late Thursday morning. Fairly potent H5 shortwave
passes through southeast PA and NJ and 125 KT jet streak passes
south of the Delmarva Thursday morning. With overnight lows in
the teens and 20s, there will be plenty of cold air in place to
support an all snow event starting in the evening, and then
really getting going from around midnight through daybreak or so
Thursday. QPF amounts will be light, generally around 1/10",
but temps will be cold enough to support around 1", but in some
cases, up to 2" of new snow Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. Could make for a slippery commute in most areas.

Precip tapers off Thursday afternoon, possibly mixing with a
brief period of rain mainly south of I-195 before ending.

Dry weather on tap for Thursday night as surface high pressure
passes through the region. Cold night with lows in the teens
across most of the area, and in the 20s from around Philly to
Wilmington, and into the Delmarva.

The next clipper system approaches on Friday and slowly passes
well north of the region Friday night. There is some uncertainty
with this one as to where everything sets up. 12Z/12 GFS and
12Z/12 ECMWF keep the weak primary low across Great Lakes, into
northern NY State, and then through northern New England and
offshore by Saturday morning. However, some strong mid-level
shortwave energy passes through the region Friday afternoon and
Friday night, while a 175 KT jet at 300 MB passes through the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. This develops a fairly strong
coastal low Friday night, but latest guidance seems to keep the
precip offshore. 12Z/12 CMC-GDPS indicates some possible
moderate banding right over NJ, but that is because it is
farther north with the developing secondary low than the GFS and
ECMWF. For now, will run with chance PoPs on Friday for the
whole region, and chance PoPs for most of NJ and down into
Delaware for Friday night. This would probably be a mostly snow
event, but may start out as rain over southern Delaware Friday
afternoon. Low confidence forecast for Friday-Friday night.

High pressure builds into the region Saturday and moves
offshore on Sunday. Yet another system is gearing up to impact
the region for the start of the new week, but with upper level
ridging passing through the East Coast, this allows for more of
a southwest flow that would usher milder air into the region,
which would allow for a period of rain sometime Sunday afternoon
and night.

Another upper level low could then affect the region on Monday,
and then dry weather looks to return on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR with 270-310 degree wind directions.
Speeds 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 35 kts. Very high
confidence.

Wednesday...VFR with 260-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 12
to 25 kts with gusts frequently at or above 30 kts, especially
in the morning. Very high confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday morning...MVFR or lower in
snow showers. Potential for 1-2" snow accumulation on runways by
Thursday morning. West winds 10-15 KT become LGT/VRB late
Wednesday night, then turn NW 5-10 KT Thursday morning. Moderate
confidence.

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...VFR. Light NW
winds. Moderate confidence.

Friday through Friday night...Primarily VFR conditions, but
there is the potential for MVFR or lower conditions in snow
showers. Low confidence.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest
winds around 10 knots. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday...VFR initially, then sub-VFR conditions possible in
snow and/or rain showers. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales are in full swing in the marine zones, with Lower Delaware
Bay not far from storm criteria. Current gale warning looks
fine. Did adjust wind gusts a little bit based on current
trends, mostly upward about 1-3 kts through most of the day
tomorrow, based on current coastal and buoy observations. A
strong gale event looks to unfold for a lengthy period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Gale force gusts come to an end on the ocean
and Small Craft Advisory conditions come to an end on DE Bay in
the evening. SCA conditions persist on the ocean. VSBY
restrictions in snow possible late Wednesday night.

Thursday...Morning snow showers taper off in the afternoon. SCA
conditions will continue.

Thursday night and Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Snow
may develop Friday afternoon.

Friday night and Saturday...SCA conditions look to develop
again. Snow possible Friday night.

Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ021>025.
DE...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS/O`Hara
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...CMS/MPS
Marine...CMS/MPS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 130547
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1247 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this evening, and then
high pressure passes south of the region on Wednesday. Several
weak low pressure systems will impact the area through the end
of the work week. High pressure returns for the weekend, and
then another system will affect the East Coast early in the new
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 am update: Made several changes to the grids, most notably
a big uptick in wind gusts based on recent observations about 5
to 10 mph too low across the board. Model soundings and momentum
transfer calculations are not really catching on to the stronger
gusts this evening, so most of the amendments involved a
positive adjustment of 3-7 kts greater than the most aggressive
hi-res models. Current wind advisory looks good, with
verification already occurring along the immediate coast of
Delaware Bay. However, based on gusts farther northwest the past
couple of hours, the advisory may require some expansion. This
is especially true given that the peak in wind gusts will likely
occur late tonight through tomorrow morning. Will monitor trends
the next couple of hours and make a final decision at 3:30.

Sky cover and temperatures were also adjusted considerably.
Temperatures are much lower than forecast, especially where
cloud cover has thinned or eroded (i.e., especially southern and
western CWA). Cold air advection is winning the battle tonight
over mixing, with the added bone chilling of the strong winds
producing wind chills below zero in the southern Poconos.
Forecast wind chills are around -10 by morning, which is not far
from advisory thresholds.

PoPs/Wx grids unchanged, but coverage of snow showers has been
sparse at best. A perturbation later tonight will likely enhance
snow showers for a time in the southern Poconos, but models have
been overdoing the precipitation during the whole event and do
not see much reason why this trend will not continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
1230 am update: Adjusted wind grids upward considerably (3-7
kts) most of the day given current trends and a clear negative
bias with the models so far.

Previous discussion below...

The core of the cold air will begin moving away Wednesday. The
ridge will cross the region late in the day. A mostly sunny and
cold day is expected across all areas. Highs will reach the
mid/upper 20s north and low 30s elsewhere. Winds will remain
gusty through much of the day, but then begin to taper off late.
Strong wind gusts will continue through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly active pattern is in place for the Long Term as
several weak clipper systems pass through the region through the
end of the work week, and then again for the start of the new
week. Each system will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air that
will keep temperatures below normal into the weekend.
Temperatures may then moderate a bit back closer to normal for
the start of the new week.

The first clipper system approaches Wednesday evening and then
slowly works its way across the region before moving offshore by
Thursday afternoon. The surface low tracks from the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and moves off the Mid-
Atlantic coast late Thursday morning. Fairly potent H5 shortwave
passes through southeast PA and NJ and 125 KT jet streak passes
south of the Delmarva Thursday morning. With overnight lows in
the teens and 20s, there will be plenty of cold air in place to
support an all snow event starting in the evening, and then
really getting going from around midnight through daybreak or so
Thursday. QPF amounts will be light, generally around 1/10",
but temps will be cold enough to support around 1", but in some
cases, up to 2" of new snow Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. Could make for a slippery commute in most areas.

Precip tapers off Thursday afternoon, possibly mixing with a
brief period of rain mainly south of I-195 before ending.

Dry weather on tap for Thursday night as surface high pressure
passes through the region. Cold night with lows in the teens
across most of the area, and in the 20s from around Philly to
Wilmington, and into the Delmarva.

The next clipper system approaches on Friday and slowly passes
well north of the region Friday night. There is some uncertainty
with this one as to where everything sets up. 12Z/12 GFS and
12Z/12 ECMWF keep the weak primary low across Great Lakes, into
northern NY State, and then through northern New England and
offshore by Saturday morning. However, some strong mid-level
shortwave energy passes through the region Friday afternoon and
Friday night, while a 175 KT jet at 300 MB passes through the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. This develops a fairly strong
coastal low Friday night, but latest guidance seems to keep the
precip offshore. 12Z/12 CMC-GDPS indicates some possible
moderate banding right over NJ, but that is because it is
farther north with the developing secondary low than the GFS and
ECMWF. For now, will run with chance PoPs on Friday for the
whole region, and chance PoPs for most of NJ and down into
Delaware for Friday night. This would probably be a mostly snow
event, but may start out as rain over southern Delaware Friday
afternoon. Low confidence forecast for Friday-Friday night.

High pressure builds into the region Saturday and moves
offshore on Sunday. Yet another system is gearing up to impact
the region for the start of the new week, but with upper level
ridging passing through the East Coast, this allows for more of
a southwest flow that would usher milder air into the region,
which would allow for a period of rain sometime Sunday afternoon
and night.

Another upper level low could then affect the region on Monday,
and then dry weather looks to return on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR with 270-310 degree wind directions.
Speeds 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 35 kts. Very high
confidence.

Wednesday...VFR with 260-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 12
to 25 kts with gusts frequently at or above 30 kts, especially
in the morning. Very high confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday morning...MVFR or lower in
snow showers. Potential for 1-2" snow accumulation on runways by
Thursday morning. West winds 10-15 KT become LGT/VRB late
Wednesday night, then turn NW 5-10 KT Thursday morning. Moderate
confidence.

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...VFR. Light NW
winds. Moderate confidence.

Friday through Friday night...Primarily VFR conditions, but
there is the potential for MVFR or lower conditions in snow
showers. Low confidence.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest
winds around 10 knots. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday...VFR initially, then sub-VFR conditions possible in
snow and/or rain showers. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales are in full swing in the marine zones, with Lower Delaware
Bay not far from storm criteria. Current gale warning looks
fine. Did adjust wind gusts a little bit based on current
trends, mostly upward about 1-3 kts through most of the day
tomorrow, based on current coastal and buoy observations. A
strong gale event looks to unfold for a lengthy period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Gale force gusts come to an end on the ocean
and Small Craft Advisory conditions come to an end on DE Bay in
the evening. SCA conditions persist on the ocean. VSBY
restrictions in snow possible late Wednesday night.

Thursday...Morning snow showers taper off in the afternoon. SCA
conditions will continue.

Thursday night and Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Snow
may develop Friday afternoon.

Friday night and Saturday...SCA conditions look to develop
again. Snow possible Friday night.

Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ021>025.
DE...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS/O`Hara
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...CMS/MPS
Marine...CMS/MPS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 130251
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
951 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this evening, and then
high pressure passes south of the region on Wednesday. Several
weak low pressure systems will impact the area through the end
of the work week. High pressure returns for the weekend, and
then another system will affect the East Coast early in the new
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A cold front has moved through the region this evening. Much
colder air arrives behind the front on gusty W to NW winds.
Gusts will be 30 to 45 mph overnight. Some gusts in the 45-50
mph range are currently occuring near Delaware bay and a wind
advisory has been issued through the overnight in these areas.
Temperatures will drop through the 30s overnight and bottom out
in the teens across the far N/W areas and low 20s over
Philadelphia and Delmarva areas. Wind chill values will be near
zero far N/W and 5 to 10 degrees most other areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The core of the cold air will begin moving away Wednesday. The
ridge will cross the region late in the day. A mostly sunny and
cold day is expected across all areas. Highs will reach the
mid/upper 20s north and low 30s elsewhere. Winds will remain
gusty through much of the day, but then begin to taper off late.
Strong wind gusts will continue through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly active pattern is in place for the Long Term as
several weak clipper systems pass through the region through the
end of the work week, and then again for the start of the new
week. Each system will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air that
will keep temperatures below normal into the weekend.
Temperatures may then moderate a bit back closer to normal for
the start of the new week.

The first clipper system approaches Wednesday evening and then
slowly works its way across the region before moving offshore by
Thursday afternoon. The surface low tracks from the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and moves off the Mid-
Atlantic coast late Thursday morning. Fairly potent H5 shortwave
passes through southeast PA and NJ and 125 KT jet streak passes
south of the Delmarva Thursday morning. With overnight lows in
the teens and 20s, there will be plenty of cold air in place to
support an all snow event starting in the evening, and then
really getting going from around midnight through daybreak or so
Thursday. QPF amounts will be light, generally around 1/10",
but temps will be cold enough to support around 1", but in some
cases, up to 2" of new snow Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. Could make for a slippery commute in most areas.

Precip tapers off Thursday afternoon, possibly mixing with a
brief period of rain mainly south of I-195 before ending.

Dry weather on tap for Thursday night as surface high pressure
passes through the region. Cold night with lows in the teens
across most of the area, and in the 20s from around Philly to
Wilmington, and into the Delmarva.

The next clipper system approaches on Friday and slowly passes
well north of the region Friday night. There is some uncertainty
with this one as to where everything sets up. 12Z/12 GFS and
12Z/12 ECMWF keep the weak primary low across Great Lakes, into
northern NY State, and then through northern New England and
offshore by Saturday morning. However, some strong mid-level
shortwave energy passes through the region Friday afternoon and
Friday night, while a 175 KT jet at 300 MB passes through the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. This develops a fairly strong
coastal low Friday night, but latest guidance seems to keep the
precip offshore. 12Z/12 CMC-GDPS indicates some possible
moderate banding right over NJ, but that is because it is
farther north with the developing secondary low than the GFS and
ECMWF. For now, will run with chance PoPs on Friday for the
whole region, and chance PoPs for most of NJ and down into
Delaware for Friday night. This would probably be a mostly snow
event, but may start out as rain over southern Delaware Friday
afternoon. Low confidence forecast for Friday-Friday night.

High pressure builds into the region Saturday and moves
offshore on Sunday. Yet another system is gearing up to impact
the region for the start of the new week, but with upper level
ridging passing through the East Coast, this allows for more of
a southwest flow that would usher milder air into the region,
which would allow for a period of rain sometime Sunday afternoon
and night.

Another upper level low could then affect the region on Monday,
and then dry weather looks to return on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Gusty west to northwest winds between 20 and 35
knots. Clouds this evening scattering out. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Gusty west to northwest winds up to 35 knots.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday morning...MVFR or lower in
snow showers. Potential for 1-2" snow accumulation on runways by
Thursday morning. West winds 10-15 KT become LGT/VRB late
Wednesday night, then turn NW 5-10 KT Thursday morning. Moderate
confidence.

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...VFR. Light NW
winds. Moderate confidence.

Friday through Friday night...Primarily VFR conditions, but
there is the potential for MVFR or lower conditions in snow
showers. Low confidence.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest
winds around 10 knots. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday...VFR initially, then sub-VFR conditions possible in
snow and/or rain showers. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale gusts have already begun from the west and northwest on the
coastal waters and in Delaware Bay. Seas will increase to 6 to
9 ft out on the ocean by Wednesday. High confidence.


Outlook...

Wednesday night...Gale force gusts come to an end on the ocean
and Small Craft Advisory conditions come to an end on DE Bay in
the evening. SCA conditions persist on the ocean. VSBY
restrictions in snow possible late Wednesday night.

Thursday...Morning snow showers taper off in the afternoon. SCA
conditions will continue.

Thursday night and Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Snow
may develop Friday afternoon.

Friday night and Saturday...SCA conditions look to develop
again. Snow possible Friday night.

Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ021>025.
DE...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST Wednesday night for ANZ450>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...Gaines/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...Gaines/MPS/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/MPS/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 130218
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
918 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this evening, and then
high pressure passes south of the region on Wednesday. Several
weak low pressure systems will impact the area through the end
of the work week. High pressure returns for the weekend, and
then another system will affect the East Coast early in the new
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

A cold front has moved through the region this evening. Much
colder air arrives behind the front on gusty W to NW winds.
Gusts will be 30 to 45 mph overnight. Right now, widespread
gusts at advisory levels are not expected. Temperatures will
drop through the 30s overnight and bottom out in the teens
across the far N/W areas and low 20s over Philadelphia and
Delmarva areas. Wind chill values will be near zero far N/W and
5 to 10 degrees most other areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

The core of the cold air will begin moving away Wednesday. The
ridge will cross the region late in the day. A mostly sunny and
cold day is expected across all areas. Highs will reach the
mid/upper 20s north and low 30s elsewhere. Winds will remain
gusty through much of the day, but then begin to taper off late.
Strong wind gusts will continue through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly active pattern is in place for the Long Term as
several weak clipper systems pass through the region through the
end of the work week, and then again for the start of the new
week. Each system will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air that
will keep temperatures below normal into the weekend.
Temperatures may then moderate a bit back closer to normal for
the start of the new week.

The first clipper system approaches Wednesday evening and then
slowly works its way across the region before moving offshore by
Thursday afternoon. The surface low tracks from the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and moves off the Mid-
Atlantic coast late Thursday morning. Fairly potent H5 shortwave
passes through southeast PA and NJ and 125 KT jet streak passes
south of the Delmarva Thursday morning. With overnight lows in
the teens and 20s, there will be plenty of cold air in place to
support an all snow event starting in the evening, and then
really getting going from around midnight through daybreak or so
Thursday. QPF amounts will be light, generally around 1/10",
but temps will be cold enough to support around 1", but in some
cases, up to 2" of new snow Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. Could make for a slippery commute in most areas.

Precip tapers off Thursday afternoon, possibly mixing with a
brief period of rain mainly south of I-195 before ending.

Dry weather on tap for Thursday night as surface high pressure
passes through the region. Cold night with lows in the teens
across most of the area, and in the 20s from around Philly to
Wilmington, and into the Delmarva.

The next clipper system approaches on Friday and slowly passes
well north of the region Friday night. There is some uncertainty
with this one as to where everything sets up. 12Z/12 GFS and
12Z/12 ECMWF keep the weak primary low across Great Lakes, into
northern NY State, and then through northern New England and
offshore by Saturday morning. However, some strong mid-level
shortwave energy passes through the region Friday afternoon and
Friday night, while a 175 KT jet at 300 MB passes through the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. This develops a fairly strong
coastal low Friday night, but latest guidance seems to keep the
precip offshore. 12Z/12 CMC-GDPS indicates some possible
moderate banding right over NJ, but that is because it is
farther north with the developing secondary low than the GFS and
ECMWF. For now, will run with chance PoPs on Friday for the
whole region, and chance PoPs for most of NJ and down into
Delaware for Friday night. This would probably be a mostly snow
event, but may start out as rain over southern Delaware Friday
afternoon. Low confidence forecast for Friday-Friday night.

High pressure builds into the region Saturday and moves
offshore on Sunday. Yet another system is gearing up to impact
the region for the start of the new week, but with upper level
ridging passing through the East Coast, this allows for more of
a southwest flow that would usher milder air into the region,
which would allow for a period of rain sometime Sunday afternoon
and night.

Another upper level low could then affect the region on Monday,
and then dry weather looks to return on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Gusty west to northwest winds between 20 and 35
knots. Clouds this evening scattering out. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Gusty west to northwest winds up to 35 knots.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday morning...MVFR or lower in
snow showers. Potential for 1-2" snow accumulation on runways by
Thursday morning. West winds 10-15 KT become LGT/VRB late
Wednesday night, then turn NW 5-10 KT Thursday morning. Moderate
confidence.

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...VFR. Light NW
winds. Moderate confidence.

Friday through Friday night...Primarily VFR conditions, but
there is the potential for MVFR or lower conditions in snow
showers. Low confidence.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest
winds around 10 knots. Confidence: Moderate

Sunday...VFR initially, then sub-VFR conditions possible in
snow and/or rain showers. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...

Gale gusts have already begun from the west and northwest on the
coastal waters and in Delaware Bay. Seas will increase to 6 to
9 ft out on the ocean by Wednesday. High confidence.


Outlook...

Wednesday night...Gale force gusts come to an end on the ocean
and Small Craft Advisory conditions come to an end on DE Bay in
the evening. SCA conditions persist on the ocean. VSBY
restrictions in snow possible late Wednesday night.

Thursday...Morning snow showers taper off in the afternoon. SCA
conditions will continue.

Thursday night and Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Snow
may develop Friday afternoon.

Friday night and Saturday...SCA conditions look to develop
again. Snow possible Friday night.

Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST Wednesday night for ANZ450>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...Gaines/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...Gaines/MPS/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/MPS/O`Hara




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