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000
FXUS62 KJAX 191229
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
829 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...Continued NE flow pattern today...with winds decreasing
slightly across coastal SE GA later in the day. Radar has been
showing a few bands of moderate-heavy showers. Much of our model
guidance has not handled this well...though a few hi-res solutions
hint at these bands gradually shifting a little southward during
the day. Will limit chance POPs to coastal counties of St. Johns
and Flagler...slight chance POPs further inland. Made slight
adjustments to high temp forecast today based on the latest
consensus guidance.

Will let coastal flood advisory expire after 11am high tide
cycle in se GA...and will maintain all other warnings/advisories
as we continue to see minor-moderate flood stage reached on the
St. Johns and continued moderate onshore flow along the coast of
ne FL.

&&

.AVIATION...GOES-16 clearly showing the lower conditions with rain
bands along coastal counties of NE FL and low CIGs Gainesville to
Ocala. TAFs reflect expectation of VFR conditions...with areas of
lower conditions through mid morning. NE flow continues over TAF
sites with occasional gusts to 20-25 kts late morning thru
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...No signficant changes for next CWF issuance. High pressure
will be to the North of the region through Saturday, then to the
Northeast later in the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to
cross the region from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

Rip Currents: High risk through Friday due to moderate onshore
flow and rough surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  79  70  79  67 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  79  68  82  64 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  80  74  81  70 /  40  20  30  20
GNV  82  67  84  63 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  83  68  86  64 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Wolf/Peterson





000
FXUS62 KJAX 191229
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
829 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...Continued NE flow pattern today...with winds decreasing
slightly across coastal SE GA later in the day. Radar has been
showing a few bands of moderate-heavy showers. Much of our model
guidance has not handled this well...though a few hi-res solutions
hint at these bands gradually shifting a little southward during
the day. Will limit chance POPs to coastal counties of St. Johns
and Flagler...slight chance POPs further inland. Made slight
adjustments to high temp forecast today based on the latest
consensus guidance.

Will let coastal flood advisory expire after 11am high tide
cycle in se GA...and will maintain all other warnings/advisories
as we continue to see minor-moderate flood stage reached on the
St. Johns and continued moderate onshore flow along the coast of
ne FL.

&&

.AVIATION...GOES-16 clearly showing the lower conditions with rain
bands along coastal counties of NE FL and low CIGs Gainesville to
Ocala. TAFs reflect expectation of VFR conditions...with areas of
lower conditions through mid morning. NE flow continues over TAF
sites with occasional gusts to 20-25 kts late morning thru
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...No signficant changes for next CWF issuance. High pressure
will be to the North of the region through Saturday, then to the
Northeast later in the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to
cross the region from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

Rip Currents: High risk through Friday due to moderate onshore
flow and rough surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  79  70  79  67 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  79  68  82  64 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  80  74  81  70 /  40  20  30  20
GNV  82  67  84  63 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  83  68  86  64 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Wolf/Peterson





000
FXUS62 KJAX 190930
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
530 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to reflect higher precipitation chances
associated with convergent band about to come ashore near St
Johns and Duval border. This band could linger for a few hours
this morning, with heaviest rainfall along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...

Restrictions will be possible in mainly coastal stratus and
showers this period, especially this morning.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  76  70  79  67 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  77  68  82  64 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  79  74  81  70 /  40  20  30  20
GNV  82  67  84  63 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  83  68  86  64 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shashy/Struble





000
FXUS62 KJAX 190742
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
342 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

High pressure will remain to the North of the region this period,
with continued onshore flow. A combination of convergence in
enhanced pressure gradient, and weak troughs in the flow will yield
the chance for mainly coastal showers and stratus through Tonight.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures will be expected for
Today. For Tonight, a broad range in readings is forecast, with the
onshore flow over Coastal GA and NE FL leading to above normal
readings, while mainly clear skies well inland will yield readings
near to below normal.

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Weak mid level trough oriented northeast to the southwest from
over the wern Atlc to central FL will move east and southeast as
high pressure aloft extending across the ern Gulf of Mexico
northward to the Ohio Valley will slowly move east by Saturday
afternoon. At the sfc...large high pressure ridge across the
Appalachians will slowly migrate east and off the coast of the Mid
Atlc States and New England. Only a gradual increase in moisture
is expected during this time period with deep easterly flow
developing. However, a strong subsidence inversion around
4500-6000 ft remains. Due to onshore flow, and weak disturbances
in east-northeast flow, and an enhanced low level coastal trough
in the morning hours...chance of showers (forecast at or below 40
percent) are expected for the coastal areas and inland parts of
northeast FL. More veered flow developing Friday and continuing
into Saturday may enable a small chance of showers to push through
inland portions of southeast GA. A slight warming trend is
expected. High will manage to reach around 80 at the coast to
lower to mid 80s inland. Lows still likely to reach cool temps
upper 50s to lower 60s inland...and mid 60s to 70 at the coast.
Due to warm advection, and the potential for more low stratus and
a few showers, warmer overnight lows by a few degrees are expected
Saturday night.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A return flow looks certain early in the long term period as low
level high pressure system off the U.S. coast moves further east.
A pronounced and vigorous mid/upper level trough is forecast to
move east from the central Plains, with some energy cutting off
over the lower MS valley by early Monday. A sfc cold front and
likely a squall line in advance of this system will progress
eastward from MS valley with sfc low along the front roughly over
portions of AL/MS and perhaps nrn GA. The frontal passage timing
is uncertain due to model disagreement and being 4-5days out, but
roughly speaking between Monday evening and Tuesday. The ECMWF
continues to be slower than GFS by around 12-18 hours. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies with warm and humid conditions will exist
Sunday through early Tuesday, then drier and much cooler air
expected to filter into the area Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Temps likely below normal on Wednesday and then dipping into the
40s over inland areas Wednesday night.

A more unstable air-mass and warm advection will result in a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday
night...with increasing chances for showers and storms Monday
through Monday night. If ECMWF model is more accurate with timing,
high rain chances may extend into Tuesday as well. Storms may
become strong to severe Monday afternoon into Tuesday as bulk
shear increases and cold front pushes through the region. Surface
high pressure will build into the the southern U.S. which may
result in breezy northwest flow on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Continued onshore flow pattern will lead to periods of coastal
showers and stratus. While prevailing VFR conditions are forecast,
brief periods of lower conditions are expected as bands of showers
move in off the Atlantic.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will be to the North of the region through Saturday,
then to the Northeast later in the weekend. A strong cold front is
expected to cross the region from the west Monday night into
Tuesday.

Rip Currents: High risk through Friday due to moderate onshore
flow and rough surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  76  70  79  67 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  77  68  82  64 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  79  74  81  70 /  20  20  30  20
GNV  82  67  84  63 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  83  68  86  64 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Struble/Shashy





000
FXUS62 KJAX 190127
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
927 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...

Yet another inverted coastal trough offshore will move towards the
southeast Georgia/northeast Florida coast this evening. The
increased convergence along the coast will lead to a few bands of
moderate to heavy showers moving onshore this evening south of St
Simons Island. Very localized heavy rainfall could occur if these
rainbands train over the same area in the next few hours and
again late tonight into Thursday morning for areas south of St
Augustine when shower activity is expected to become enhanced
again. A lull in coastal showers is expected after midnight as the
first trough moves inland with only a few isolated light showers
possible near the coast. As mentioned, this activity should pick
back up again along our southern coastal zones late tonight.

The main updates this evening were to increase evening rain
chances for coastal areas south of St Simons Island and to
increase sky coverage to mostly cloudy/overcast for areas along
the coast. Mostly clear/clear skies will continue across inland
southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida located well
inland. This combined with lighter winds will allow for cooler
temperatures across these areas. The breezy onshore flow coupled
with marine stratocumulus clouds and shower activity will keep
coastal areas much warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...

Decided to go more pessimistic with ceilings overnight given the
latest satellite/radar imagery showing clouds and showers moving
onshore from the Atlantic. Confidence has therefore increased
enough to show MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites through the
overnight hours. Prevailing ceiling heights should lift into the
low VFR range Thursday morning. Scattered showers this evening
will create brief periods of IFR conditions in heavy rain and SGJ
appears to be the one TAF site with the best chance to see IFR
conditions. The DUVAL County terminals could also see some shower
activity overnight but confidence not high enough to show anything
lower than MVFR at this time. Additional coastal showers will be
possible during the day on Thursday with the best chances at SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...

Small craft advisory conditions continue. We decided to go ahead
and extend the SCA for the nearshore zones due to increased
confidence that SCA conditions will persist through at least
Thursday evening. Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts
will continue through at least Thursday evening. Elevated seas
will also remain persistent through at least Thursday evening.

Rip Currents: A High Risk of rip currents will continue on
Thursday due to persistent onshore winds and rough surf.

&&

.COASTAL IMPACTS...

Coastal flood warnings remain in effect through Thursday morning
for areas primarily along the ST Johns river basin and its
tributaries. Coastal Flood advisories are in effect for all
coastal areas for possible minor flooding at times of high tide.
Rough surf combined with elevated tides will likely cause at
least some minor beach erosion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  67  77  67  80 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  65  79  66  81 /  40  20  10  20
SGJ  72  80  70  81 /  60  40  20  20
GNV  64  84  64  85 /   0  20  10  10
OCF  65  84  65  86 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shuler/Enyedi/Corless





000
FXUS62 KJAX 182006
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
406 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.CURRENTLY...
Afternoon surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1031
millibars) centered over the Carolinas and Virginia. The cold
front that passed through our region on Monday night remains
stalled over southern Florida. Aloft...a broad low to mid level
trough over our region is beginning to move offshore, with
ridging amplifying over the western Gulf of Mexico. A tight
pressure gradient prevails over our region, with windy conditions
prevailing along the coast and breezy northeasterly winds over
inland portions of northeast Florida. Fair skies prevail over
inland southeast Georgia, where temperatures have climbed into the
upper 70s with comfortable dewpoints in the 50s. Convergent
onshore winds have advected a cumulus and stratocumulus cloud
field over northeast and north central Florida, with a weak
trough over the coastal waters combining with the departing trough
aloft to generate scattered showers that are migrating into the
near shore waters. Temperatures in northeast and north central
Florida were generally in the 75-80 range with dewpoints in the
60s.

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging aloft will continue to amplify over the western and
central Gulf of Mexico, while surface high pressure moves only
slowly northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic states while gradually
weakening. This weather pattern will maintain a northeasterly flow
from the surface up through about 10,000 feet over our region,
with flow above that veering to northwesterly. Weak coastal
troughs will migrate onshore over coastal southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida through early Thursday afternoon, bringing
periods of scattered showers to locations east of the U.S. Highway
301 corridor. Activity will remain low-topped and generally brief
in nature tonight, with short-term, high resolution models
targeting coastal Camden, Nassau and Duval Counties with the best
chances for measurable rainfall overnight. Low level flow will
veer to a more easterly direction over southeast Georgia
overnight, which will shut off cool air advection. However,
radiational cooling conditions are expected inland later tonight,
with lows over inland southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee
Valley falling to the 55-60 range. Lows elsewhere over inland
northeast and north central Florida will fall to 60-65, with
breezy onshore winds keeping lows for locations east of I-95 in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Our local pressure gradient will loosen slightly on Thursday, but
near windy conditions will prevail in coastal locations and breezy
conditions will redevelop over inland northeast and north central
Florida during the late morning and afternoon hours. Drier air
will push southward into southeast Georgia on the heels of the
northwesterly flow pattern aloft, which should keep scattered
showers mostly confined to coastal northeast Florida. A few
showers may move inland past the U.S. Highway 301 corridor during
the afternoon hours. Highs will climb back above normal as heights
aloft rise, with low to mid 80s expected inland, with onshore
winds keeping coastal highs in the upper 70s to near 80.

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night through Saturday night...Large and strong surface
high to the north will gradually shift east off the east coast by
Saturday. Breezy northeast winds will continue as the pressure
gradient remains tight. Isolated to scattered showers along the ne
Fl coast will develop north and affect the Ga coast as winds
become more east to southeast Saturday and Saturday night.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A return flow will bring warmer and more humid conditions
starting Sunday as an approaching vigorous trough approaches the
lower Ms river valley from the west. A more unstable airmass will
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday
and Monday. Storms may become strong to severe Monday afternoon
into Monday night as vertical shear increases with upper shortwave
trough and associated cold front to the west. Models indicate a
deepening surface low near the central Gulf region Monday...moving
into the ne U.S. on Tuesday. Models similar in moving upper
trough and frontal boundary across the area early Tuesday morning
with drier and cooler air spreading across se Ga/ne Fl. Surface
high pressure will build into the southern plains which will
produce breezy offshore winds and cool conditions through
Wednesday with temperatures at or below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet are expected at SSI through at
least 06Z, with occasional MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet possible
at the Duval County terminals. Showers are expected to move
onshore into Duval County towards 00Z, with periods of ceilings
around 2000 feet possible at the Duval County terminals during
the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail. Gusty northeasterly winds are expected through 00Z at the
regional terminals, with sustained surface speeds near 20 knots
at SGJ and around 15 knots elsewhere, with frequent gusts of 20-30
knots possible. Winds will decrease after 00Z, but will remain
breezy at SGJ and SSI.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure will remain centered to the north of our
region through the upcoming weekend, keeping a tight pressure
gradient in place over our region. Small Craft Advisory conditions
will continue through Thursday morning over the near shore waters
and through at least Thursday night offshore. Seas of 5-7 feet
will prevail near shore, with 6-9 foot seas prevailing through at
least Thursday afternoon offshore. Small Craft will need to
exercise Caution in the near shore waters on Thursday, as
northeasterly winds will remain in the 15-20 knot range with seas
of 4-6 feet. Winds and seas will remain at caution levels near
shore through the weekend, and seas offshore may remain at SCA
levels past Thursday night into the weekend. A strong cold front
will approach our region from the west by late Monday, with
winds becoming southerly by Monday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms should overspread area waters by Monday night along
the front.

Rip Currents/High Surf: High risk of rip currents continues
through Thursday at area beaches. Breaker heights of 5-7 feet will
continue this afternoon, with the High Surf Advisory set to expire
at 7 PM this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The coastal flood warning has been extended into Duval County, as
tide gauges in downtown Jacksonville and on surrounding
tributaries within the St. Johns Basin reached moderate flood
levels during the morning high tide. Strong onshore winds and the
approach of the new moon will keep water levels elevated during
the next several days. A coastal flood advisory continues for
Nassau, Camden, and Glynn Counties through at least Thursday
morning, with minor coastal flooding expected along the beaches.
The coastal flood warning is in effect for the St. Johns Basin
through at least Thursday morning, with moderate flooding also
occurring along coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties during
times of high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  67  79  67  80 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  63  80  66  81 /  40  20  10  20
SGJ  72  81  70  81 /  30  40  20  20
GNV  63  84  64  85 /  10  20  10  10
OCF  64  84  65  86 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Nelson/Zibura/Corless





000
FXUS62 KJAX 181627
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1227 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE COAST WITH HIGH SURF AND
COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUING...

.UPDATE...
Early afternoon surface analysis depicts strong high pressure
(1030 millibars) centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. The cold
front that passed through our region on Monday night is now a
stalled boundary over southern Florida. Aloft...broad low to mid
level troughing remains in place over our region, with ridging
amplifying over the western Gulf of Mexico. Fair skies and
decoupling winds overnight allowed lows to fall into the upper 40s
for our northern GA locations near the Altamaha River, with 50s
for most inland locations from Gainesville northward. A tight
pressure gradient prevails over our region, with windy conditions
continuing overnight along the coast, which kept lows in the lower
60s along the southeast Georgia coast and 65-70 at the northeast
Florida coast. Onshore winds are bringing in plenty of cumulus and
stratocumulus clouds into northeast Florida and coastal southeast
Georgia, with fair skies for locations over inland southeast
Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. Noon temperatures ranged from
70-75 over inland southeast Georgia and 75-80 elsewhere.

Showers that impacted Flagler and St. Johns Counties earlier this
morning have moved into the dry air mass that exists inland and
have dissipated. Showers are increasing in coverage over the
offshore coastal waters adjacent to Georgia, and this activity
will advect southwestward and will likely move into Camden and
Duval Counties towards sunset per the latest short-term high
resolution models. Otherwise, the dry air mass in place will keep
fair skies in place over inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee
Valley, where highs will reach the upper 70s, with highs elsewhere
near 80 this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Occasional MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet will be possible at SGJ
through about 18Z, with VFR ceilings elsewhere in the 3000-4000
foot range through 00Z. Showers are expected to move onshore into
Duval County towards 00Z, with periods of ceilings around 3000
feet possible at the Duval County terminals and SSI during the
evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail. Gusty northeasterly winds are expected through 00Z at the
regional terminals, with sustained surface speeds near 20 knots at
SGJ and around 15 knots elsewhere, with frequent gusts of 20-30
knots possible. Winds will decrease after 00Z, but will remain
breezy at SGJ and SSI.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure will remain centered to the north of our
region through the upcoming weekend, keeping a tight pressure
gradient in place over our region. Small Craft Advisory conditions
will continue through Thursday morning over the near shore waters
and through at least Thursday night offshore. Seas of 7-9 feet are
expected offshore and 6-8 feet near shore today, with wind speeds
falling back to 15-20 knots tonight. Seas will remain at SCA
levels near shore overnight and through at least Thursday night
offshore. Winds and seas will remain at caution levels near shore
through the weekend, and seas offshore may remain at SCA levels
past Thursday night into the weekend.

Rip Currents/High Surf: High risk of rip currents continues
through Thursday at area beaches. Breaker heights of 5-7 feet will
continue this afternoon, with the High Surf Advisory set to expire
at 7 PM this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING...
The coastal flood warning has been extended into Duval County, as
tide gauges in downtown Jacksonville and on surrounding
tributaries within the St. Johns Basin reached moderate flood
levels during the morning high tide. Strong onshore winds and the
approach of the new moon will keep water levels elevated during
the next several days. A coastal flood advisory continues for
Nassau, Camden, and Glynn Counties through at least Thursday
morning, with minor coastal flooding expected along the beaches.
The coastal flood warning is in effect for the St. Johns Basin
through at least Thursday morning, with moderate flooding also
occurring along coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties during
times of high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  65  77  68 /  20  30  10  10
JAX  76  63  79  66 /  30  40  30  10
SGJ  76  70  78  70 /  30  30  40  20
GNV  80  62  83  63 /  10  10  30  10
OCF  82  63  84  66 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Nelson/Zibura/McGinnis





000
FXUS62 KJAX 180840
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
435 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.NEAR TERM...
Today...strong pressure gradient continues to produce gusty winds
along the coastal areas with observations flirting with wind
advisory criteria. Won`t raise advisory due to relatively short-
lived occurrence. Strong low level convergence and mid level
shortwave trough located over extreme southeast GA and Suwannee
Valley are resulting in a resurgence of bands of showers
for our southeast zones. Periods of isolated to scattered showers on
the north periphery of these bands may also work north into
parts of north St Johns and Duval counties later this morning.
Additional surge of moisture and shower activity is expected to
move into Duval county and perhaps as far as coastal Glynn
county late today and tonight. Some isolated shower activity will be
able to push inland on the moderate to strong northeast flow just
above the sfc, probably as far as Highway 301 today. Mostly cloudy
skies will be likely for portions of eastern northeast FL with
partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Max temps should be able to reach
the mid to upper 70s...with a few lower 80s well inland of
northeast FL.

Tonight...a chance of isolated to scattered showers are expected to
continue for coastal areas with a focus from St Augustine northward.
Winds should lay back down inland areas...with coastal areas seeing
10 to near 20 mph ne flow. Wide range in low temps again with temps
near 70 at the coast to mid 50s over inland southeast GA. At this
time, areal rainfall amounts are expected to be less half an inch
today through tonight. The only exception would be narrow bands
across east and southeast Flagler county that could train enough to
dump half an inch to 1 inch.

.Short Term.../Thursday through Saturday/...

High pressure will slowly move from North of the region to the
Northeast through this period, continuing the onshore flow pattern.
In this pattern showers can not be ruled out at any time as
convergent bands could form in the tightened gradient, in addition
to the potential for weak troughs to develop in the flow and move
West across forecast area. However, expect showers that do develop
to be isolated to scattered in nature, and mainly affect the coast.

Temperatures will slowly moderate this period as flow gradually
trends from Northeast to East.

&&

.Long Term.../Saturday night through Wednesday/...

High pressure will move further to the Northeast through Monday with
the flow gradually turning from the East to from the Southeast. As
the flow becomes more Southeast, expect a return of warmer and more
moist air bringing an increased chance for showers and storms. The
longer range models are coming into better agreement with timing of
a cold frontal passage in the Monday night through Tuesday time
period. Given the forecast strength of this frontal system, a round
of storms is anticipated which may be strong. High pressure will
build from the West Tuesday night into Wednesday following the front
with a much cooler airmass advecting South.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal through at least
Monday, with readings below normal for Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to ocnl strong northeast winds will continue this morning.
Winds at SAUF1 near 24-28kt recently, with an ASCAT pass at 01z
showed widespread northeast winds of 24-28 kt as well. Winds will
begin a decreasing trend tonight through the rest of the week as sfc
trough well to our south begins to move east and loosening the
pressure gradient. Current high pressure situated over VA at about
1029 mb will remain nearly stationary and weaken through Friday
night. Seas are currently 7 to 9 ft at area buoys with some
9-11 ft sea certainly possible well offshore. With the weaker
northeast flow late tonight and rest of the week, seas will come
down gradually but still hazardous at around the 5-8 ft Friday
and into Saturday...due to the long northeast to east fetch of 15-25
kt winds across the wrn Atlantic continuing.

Rip currents...high risk continues due to moderate to strong onshore
flow and rough surf. Surf heights expected to be in the 4-7 foot
range today.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ocnl to Prevailing MVFR cigs around 2000-3000 ft look likely for
SGJ through today with some improvement possible to VFR to ocnl
MVFR cigs after 21z. For GNV, VFR should prevail through
most of the day but brief periods of MVFR cigs are possible around
10z-15z and during early aftn hours. For rest of TAFs, VFR to ocnl
MVFR cigs 2000-3000 ft are expected through the morning hours and
early aftn. Breezy northeast winds will continue at SGJ, SSI, and CRG
with JAX and VQQ light northerly until 13z...picking up to
near 15G25kt afterward. GNV light northeast winds will pick up to
near 12G20-25kt by 14z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY/COASTAL IMPACTS...
Minor coastal flooding issues continue with several gauge
sites that reached criteria along the coast and along the St Johns
River Tuesday morning. Differentials in the water levels between
predicted astro tides and observations on the southern St Johns
River are up to near 1.7 feet and this is now expected to reach
moderate flooding levels so have issued coastal flood warning for
Clay, St Johns, Flagler and Putnam counties. Water levels along the
St Johns and Flagler Atlantic ocean will likely reach
moderate coastal flooding as well. Elsewhere...minor coastal
flooding from Duval northward into coastal southeast GA is
expected. The persistent onshore flow and elevated seas will
continue the threat of minor coastal flooding for much of this
week...especially in the St Johns River basin and with the approach
of the new moon tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  56  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  75  68  79  68 /  20  30  20  10
JAX  77  64  80  66 /  20  30  30  10
SGJ  77  71  81  70 /  50  30  40  20
GNV  80  63  82  63 /  20  10  20  10
OCF  82  63  85  66 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Flagler-
     Putnam-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal Duval-
     Inland Duval.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shashy/Struble





000
FXUS62 KJAX 180118
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
918 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...

It is feeling much more fall-like across the region this evening.
There will be a large range in min temps overnight. Clear skies
and nearly calm winds will set the stage for well below normal
temps across inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley
area of northeast Florida. In fact, areas from Alma northward will
see temperatures drop down into the mid to upper 40s overnight.
Windy onshore winds overnight at the northeast Florida beaches
will keep temps there closer to 70 degrees. Otherwise near normal
overnight temps are expected elsewhere. Most areas will remain dry
overnight but a weak inverted trough southeast of Flagler Beach
will move towards the coast and bring a chance for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to coastal areas primarily
south of St Augustine. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with this activity late tonight across southern portions of
Flagler County.

&&

.AVIATION...

Challenging forecast on ceiling heights at the northeast Florida
terminals overnight. JAX, CRG, VQQ, and GNV are right on the
northern edge of the clearing line where ceilings have already
started to improve to VFR levels. There is still a chance however
that MVFR ceilings could move back in overnight. There is a much
better chance at SGJ for MVFR ceilings to continue overnight and
through the day on Tuesday.

Windy conditions will continue at the two coastal TAF sites (SSI &
SGJ) overnight and through the day on Tuesday. Inland TAF sites
will see northeast winds increase and become gusty again on
Tuesday. VFR conditions will continue at SSI where mostly clear
skies will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

Small craft advisories remain in place for all adjacent southeast
Georgia and northeast Florida waters. Strong northeast winds will
continue overnight and through the day on Wednesday. Winds will
be sustained around 25 knots with occasional gusts to gale force
expected. Combined seas will remain in the 8 to 12 ft range with
occasionally higher seas up to 14 feet possible.

Rip Currents: High risk will continue through much of the week due
to strong northeast winds and rough surf.

&&

.Coastal Impacts...

Breaker heights up to 5 to 7 feet are expected at the northeast
Florida beaches through Wednesday and a High Surf Advisory is in
effect. A coastal flood advisory is also in effect for minor
flooding along the coast and along the St Johns River and its
tributaries during times of high tide. Some minor beach erosion
will also be possible along the northeast Florida coastline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  77  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  62  76  66  79 /   0  30  30  30
JAX  60  77  64  81 /  10  30  20  30
SGJ  70  78  70  81 /  20  40  40  50
GNV  62  81  63  84 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  64  82  65  85 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shuler/Enyedi/Corless





000
FXUS62 KJAX 171956
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
356 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...PROLONGED STRONG ONSHORE WIND EVENT WITH HIGH SURF...A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.CURRENTLY...
Afternoon surface analysis depicts a cold front decelerating on
its southward push towards Lake Okeechobee, with strong high
pressure (1031 millibars) sprawling over the Tennessee Valley and
Appalachians. Aloft...a broad trough is in place over the eastern
U.S., with an embedded shortwave digging slowly southeastward
through Georgia. A band of heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms were located over the offshore waters adjacent to
northeast Florida, with a few light showers occasionally sneaking
into far southern Flagler County. A tight pressure gradient
remains in place over our region, with strong onshore
northeasterly winds sustained around 20 mph along the coast, with
occasional gusts of 30-35 mph persisting at area beaches. A much
drier air mass has plunged into inland southeast Georgia and the
northern Suwannee Valley, where temperatures are rising to the
70-75 range with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Multi-layered
cloudiness persists over the rest of coastal southeast Georgia,
northeast and north central Florida, with temperatures in upper
60s to lower 70s, with dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The shortwave over Georgia will continue to slowly pivot
southeastward overnight, and this feature will likely add some
lift and will team up with coastal convergence resulting from deep
onshore flow to increase shower chances overnight over Flagler,
Putnam, and St. Johns Counties. Short-term, high resolution
guidance indicates that these showers will expand in coverage
after midnight tonight, with likely POPS placed in the forecast
grids for most of Flagler County through Wednesday morning. Widely
scattered showers may also begin advecting onshore over the rest
of the coastal counties by the mid to late morning hours on
Wednesday. We expect deeper moisture to remain displaced just to
the south of our area through Wednesday, with mainly light QPF
amounts anticipated. Meanwhile, a seasonably cool and dry air
mass will continue to overspread inland southeast Georgia and the
northern Suwannee Valley. Inland winds will gradually decouple
overnight, with mostly clear skies expected. This weather pattern
will allow lows tonight to fall to the upper 40s near the Altamaha
River, ranging to the mid 50s along inland portions of the I-10
corridor. These values are about 5-8 degrees below mid- October
climo. A tight pressure gradient in place over our region will
keep breezy to occasional windy northeast winds in place for
locations along and east of I-95, setting up a large low
temperature gradient over our area. Coastal lows will generally
range from 65-70, which is a few degrees above climo.

Breezy to windy conditions will prevail for locations along and
east of I-95 on Wednesday, with breezy northeasterly winds
developing over inland northeast and north central Florida by the
mid to late morning hours. The approaching new moon will add an
increasing astronomical component to ongoing tidal flooding along
the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River basin (see
Hydrology discussion below). A stratocumulus cloud field will
gradually advect into the inland northeast and north central
Florida counties during the afternoon hours, with mostly sunny
skies and just a few cumulus clouds expected over inland southeast
Georgia. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 70s,
except lower 80s for inland north central Florida. These values
are near or perhaps a degree or two below climo.

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High Pressure will remain anchored over the Mid Atlc/Carolinas
through the period with the old cold frontal boundary well south
of the region over the Southern FL Peninsula. The pressure
gradient between the two features will slowly weaken through the
period but the E to NE steering flow will remain in place and will
continue at least breezy conditions along the coast with NE sfc
winds at 15-25G30-35 mph at times along with scattered coastal
showers pushing into the I-95 corridor at times. Some locally
heavy rainfall appears possible along the NE FL coast south of
Jacksonville but does not appear to be organized enough that it
will warrant a Flood Watch. The onshore flow along with the
approach of the New Moon on the 19th will continue Minor Coastal
Flooding along the coast and down the St Johns River Basin and
expect Coastal Flood Advisories to continue through this period.
Temps will remain closer to normal with Lows in the 50s/60s inland
and near 70 along the coast while Highs will rebound back into the
lower 80s due to onshore flow from the warmer waters and possibly
reaching the Mid 80s over far inland areas. Much of inland NE FL
and inland SE GA will remain dry through this period with light NE
sfc winds at 10-15G20-25 mph at times during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY-TUESDAY/...
Sat...Lingering easterly flow will continue with breezy conds
along the coast and coastal showers remaining possible at times.
Temps back above normal with highs into the lower/middle 80s.

Sun/Mon...Steering flow will shift to the south ahead of the next
trof and expect deeper moisture assocd with the old frontal
boundary will lift back northward and this will lead to much
better rain chances area-wide with scattered to numerous showers
mainly diurnal in nature along with an isolated thunderstorm
possible at times. Temps remain above normal with highs into the
middle 80s and lows in the 60s/lower 70s.

Tue...Long-range models still trying to come together with next
significant cold frontal passage with timing and amount of
shower/storm activity and for now still have low confidence in
details. But some shower/storm activity will be possible in this
time frame before much cooler/drier airmass filters in the rest of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings of 2000-2500 feet are expected to prevail through
around 00Z at the regional terminals. Ceilings tonight should
rise into the VFR range, generally 3000-4000 feet. Sustained
northeasterly surface winds will generally be around 15 knots late
this afternoon, with frequent gusts of 20-30 knots expected at
the regional terminals. Speeds will remain elevated overnight at
SGJ, with sustained speeds around 20 knots and generally 10-15
knots elsewhere, except 5-10 knots at VQQ and GNV. Showers may
begin to impact SGJ towards 12Z, with MVFR ceilings of 2000-3000
feet expected to redevelop at SGJ towards sunrise. Gusty
northeasterly surface winds will also redevelop shortly after
sunrise at each terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
A tight pressure gradient will prevail over our region into the
upcoming weekend as high pressure remains situated to the north of
our region and the cold front that pushed through the coastal
waters last evening stalls over south Florida. Northeasterly winds
of 20-25 knots with occasional gusts to Gale Force will prevail
through Wednesday night, with Small Craft Advisories posted for
all area waters. Near shore seas of 6-9 feet are expected through
Wednesday afternoon, and seas offshore peaking this afternoon in
the 8-11 foot range and will then gradually decrease back to 6-9
feet by Wednesday night and Thursday. Onshore winds may fall back
to caution levels of 15-20 knots by Thursday, but seas offshore
will likely remain in the Small Craft Advisory range throughout
the weekend, with seas near shore falling back to caution levels
of 4-6 feet by Thursday and remaining elevated through the
weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk to continue through at least Wednesday,
with breakers of 5-7 feet at area beaches also continuing through
Wednesday and minor beach erosion possible during times of high
tide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Elevated water levels that were in place from onshore winds this
weekend in the St. Johns River Basin have been elevated further by
the northeasterly wind surge last night. In addition, the upcoming
new moon will add a few tenths of a foot to the water levels
beginning on Wednesday. Tide gauges along the St. Johns and
Flagler County coasts are approaching moderate flood levels
during high tide, with coastal levels reaching action stage at
Mayport, Fernandina Beach, and Cumberland Island. The astronomical
cycle associated with the new moon will likely bring water levels
into minor flood status on Wednesday along the Nassau,Camden, and
Glynn coasts on Wednesday morning, and a Coastal Flood Advisory
will go into effect beginning at 5 AM Wednesday. Gauges along the
St. Johns River from downtown Jacksonville southward through
Putnam County are close to reaching moderate flood levels during
high tide on Wednesday, so a coastal flood warning will likely be
issued for the St. Johns Basin this evening or overnight to
replace the advisory currently in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  77  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  76  66  79 /  10  30  30  30
JAX  60  77  64  81 /  10  30  20  30
SGJ  69  78  70  81 /  30  40  40  50
GNV  62  81  63  84 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  64  82  65  85 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Nelson/Hess/Corless





000
FXUS62 KJAX 171616
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1216 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...PROLONGED STRONG ONSHORE WIND EVENT WITH HIGH SURF...A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
Early afternoon surface analysis depicts a cold front pushing
southward towards Lake Okeechobee, with strong high pressure (1030
millibars) centered over West Virginia. Aloft...a broad trough is
in place over the eastern U.S., with an embedded shortwave
digging through southern Alabama and Georgia. A band of heavy
showers and embedded thunderstorms were located over the offshore
waters adjacent to Flagler County, with a few showers occasionally
sneaking into the near shore waters and over Flagler Beach.
Multi- layered cloudiness blankets most of northeast Florida and
coastal southeast Georgia, with fair skies for locations north of
Waycross. Cool air advection has finally arrived in our region,
with temperatures over inland southeast Georgia generally in the
mid 60s and dewpoints in the 40s. A tight pressure gradient
remains in place over our region, with strong onshore
northeasterly winds sustained at 20-25 mph along the coast keeping
coastal temperatures in the mid 70s, with dewpoints generally in
the 60s.

We have maintained the wind advisory for coastal locations through
6 PM, as northeasterly winds may flirt with 25 mph sustained
speeds this afternoon. Short-term, high resolution guidance
indicates that bands of heavier rainfall will likely remain just
south of Flagler County, with scattered light showers possible
this afternoon and evening, generally from St. Augustine
southward. A drier air mass will continue to advect into southeast
Georgia, with highs generally reaching the 70-75 range from
Interstate 10 north and mid to upper 70s over north central
Florida. Fair skies and decoupling winds will allow lows tonight
to fall to the upper 40s near the Altamaha River to the lower 50s
for the rest of inland southeast Georgia, with mid to upper 50s
for the I-10 corridor and northern Suwannee Valley. Breezy onshore
winds will keep coastal lows generally in the 65-70 range, with
isolated to widely scattered showers possible from St. Augustine
southward.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings of 2000-2500 feet are expected to prevail through
around 00Z at the Duval County terminals and SSI, with periods of
MVFR ceilings possible at GNV through 00Z, but VFR ceilings
prevailing. Ceilings tonight should generally be in the VFR range,
generally 3500-4000 feet. Sustained northeasterly surface winds
will generally be around 15 knots this afternoon, with frequent
gusts of 20-30 knots expected at the regional terminals. Speeds
will remain elevated overnight at SGJ, with sustained speeds
around 20 knots and generally 10-15 knots elsewhere, except 5-10
knots at VQQ and GNV.

&&

.MARINE...
A tight pressure gradient will prevail over our region into the
upcoming weekend as high pressure remains situated to the north of
our region and the cold front that pushed through the coastal
waters last evening stalls over south Florida. Northeasterly winds
of 20-25 knots with occasional gusts to Gale Force will prevail
through Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisories posted on area
waters. Near shore seas of 6-9 feet are expected through Wednesday
afternoon, and seas offshore peaking today and tonight in the 8-11
foot range. Onshore winds may fall back to caution levels of 15-20
knots by Wednesday night or Thursday, but seas offshore will
likely remain in the Small Craft Advisory range throughout the
weekend, with seas near shore falling back to caution levels of
4-6 feet by Thursday and remaining elevated through the weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk to continue through at least Wednesday,
with breakers of 5-7 feet at area beaches also continuing through
Wednesday and minor beach erosion possible during times of high
tide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Elevated water levels that were in place from onshore winds this
weekend in the St. Johns River Basin have been elevated further by
the northeasterly wind surge overnight. In addition, the new moon
is adding a few tenths of a foot to the water levels, which is
bringing coastal tide gauges into minor flood during high tide
along the St. Johns and Flagler County coasts, with coastal levels
reaching action stage at Mayport, Fernandina Beach, and Cumberland
Island. The astronomical cycle associated with the new moon will
peak during high tides on Wednesday, and a coastal flood advisory
will likely be extended northward over coastal Nassau, Camden, and
Glynn Counties later tonight. Some sites along the St. Johns River
from downtown Jacksonville southward may approach moderate
flooding during high tide on Wednesday, so we will continue to
monitor levels and predictions for a possible coastal flood
warning to replace the advisory currently in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  49  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  63  75  68 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  71  61  77  66 /  10  10  30  10
SGJ  76  69  78  70 /  40  20  60  30
GNV  76  62  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  77  64  82  65 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     Clay-Coastal Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Nelson/Hess/McGinnis





000
FXUS62 KJAX 170852
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
445 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.NEAR TERM...
Today through Tonight...strong cold front will continue pushing
southward today while north-northeast flow will bring cloudy
conditions to much of northeast FL. Scattered showers with isolated
embedded thunderstorms (early today) are expected over the southeast
zones. Much cooler with highs in the 70s...roughly 15-20 degrees
cooler than Monday. Most precip will be moving south of the area
this afternoon. Still can`t rule out isolated to scattered showers
for the northeast FL coastal areas due to low level convergence and
moisture flux off Atlantic. For tonight...skies become mostly clear
north zones and cooler/drier airmass will filter south across
inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley. On the
northeast FL coast...a threat of isolated to scattered showers will
remain through night...with best chances south of St Augustine at
around 50-60 percent. Temps will actually be a little below normal
with lows around 50 degrees in Alma and Waycross. Otherwise...lows
in the mid to upper 50s inland and near 70 along the coast in the
onshore flow.

.Short Term.../Wednesday through Friday/...

High pressure will continue to the North this period, with enhanced
onshore flow. A series of troughs are expected to develop in this
onshore flow pattern and move West into the forecast area this
period. As these troughs develop and move West gradient winds will
increase and showers will move ashore.

Temperatures will trend from near to slightly below normal to above
normal this period.

&&

.Long Term.../Friday night through Tuesday/...

The center of the surface high will drift from the North to the
Northeast of the region this period. With this pattern the flow will
shift from the Northeast to East then Southeast. The Southeast flow
will lead to a warmer and more moist airmass with precipitation
chances increasing through the period. The long range models diverge
on timing of a cold front in the Monday into Tuesday time period.
The main difference in timing will affect the temperature trend late
in the period. At this point forecast will depict a cooler day for
Tuesday than Monday, due to the potential front and expected
precipitation.

Temperatures are expected to trend above normal for much of this
period, then near normal Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR cigs may continue at VQQ through sunrise then lift to
MVFR. For remainder TAFs, MVFR cigs will persist for the better half
of today with cigs slowly lifting by this afternoon and evening.
Brisk north northeast winds expected for coastal TAFS with lower
winds inland around GNV and VQQ. Some improvement expected by this
evening with VFR cigs expected as some drier air filters in north-
northeast flow.

&&

.MARINE...Strong north-northeast winds expected through
Wednesday with SCA in place with gusts to gale force at times.
Winds/Seas will remain elevated through the remainder of the week
as moderate to strong high pressure remains north of the area.

Rip Currents: High Risk of Rip Currents due to strong
northeasterly winds and rough and building surf.

&&

.COASTAL IMPACTS...Surf is expected to build to 5 to 7
feet and have raised High surf advisory with this forecast package.
Regarding water levels along the coast...though we are only touching
action stage at a few sites at this time, the surge of winds and
continued onshore flow will enable some minor coastal flooding
potential by this evening. On the St Johns River, currently seeing
minor flooding being reached at Racy Point and Main Street Bridge
with the high tide. Given the moderate to strong northeast winds
these water levels will continue to be elevated and potentially
rise through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  50  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  64  76  68 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  73  63  77  66 /  20  20  30  10
SGJ  75  69  79  70 /  40  50  40  30
GNV  75  62  80  64 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  76  65  82  65 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     Clay-Coastal Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shashy/Struble/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 170226
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1026 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Significant airmass transition is underway this evening with
much cooler conditions in the process of advecting into the
region. Two cold fronts are pushing through this evening. The
first one is currently pushing slowly through northeast Florida
with strong storms producing heavy rainfall. The second front is
coming down the coast as a backdoor cold front and this front is
being trailed by strong northerly winds and a few showers. This
front is currently approaching Saint Simons Island and will
quickly shift down the coast and continue to increase the
convergence to force numerous to widespread showers and embedded
storms with locally heavy rainfall across the coastal counties of
northeast Florida overnight.

Northerly winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to
around 35 mph at the coast after midnight and these windy
conditions will continue through the day on Tuesday. Much lower
dewpoints will advect in from the north and this will help to
shutdown rain chances across inland locations of southeast Georgia
and across the Suwannee Valley area of northeast Florida.
Scattered to numerous showers will continue along the coast of
northeast Florida on Tuesday due to increased moisture
convergence near the coast. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected
and the WPC has included part of our area along the coast south of
Jacksonville in a moderate to slight risk of excessive rainfall.
These areas can expect to see at least 1 to 2 inches with much
higher amounts possible in localized areas through Tuesday.
Flagler County stands to see the most rain in our area and some
minor flooding will certainly be possible given the antecedent
wet conditions across that area.

Overcast low stratus clouds will quickly move in with the backdoor
cold front overnight. Overcast conditions will continue for all
coastal areas and most of inland northeast Florida through
Tuesday. Temperatures will struggle to move into the 70s for many
areas on Tuesday given the overcast conditions and cold air
advection.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low stratus clouds will quickly overspread the region after
midnight as strong northerly winds work down the coast. Windy
conditions will develop at the coastal TAF sites after midnight
and then across inland TAF sites on Tuesday. There is very high
confidence that ceilings will drop down to at least low MVFR
levels after midnight. Some areas may even briefly lower to IFR
ceilings. MVFR ceilings are expected to continue at all TAF sites
through the entire day on Tuesday. Some improvement may reach SSI
by late in the day as drier air continues to filter down the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will quickly increase north to south overnight as a backdoor
cold front rapidly moves southward across the waters. Solid SCA
conditions are expected to develop with gusts to gale force
expected. Numerous showers are also expected, especially across
the northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents: High Risk of Rip Currents due to strong
northeasterly winds and rough and building surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  71  50  76 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  64  70  64  76 /  80  20  10  20
JAX  66  72  64  78 /  80  40  20  20
SGJ  72  75  70  78 /  90  60  50  50
GNV  68  72  62  80 /  70  20  10  20
OCF  69  75  65  82 /  60  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Putnam.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Wolf/Shuler/Corless





000
FXUS62 KJAX 170226
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1026 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Significant airmass transition is underway this evening with
much cooler conditions in the process of advecting into the
region. Two cold fronts are pushing through this evening. The
first one is currently pushing slowly through northeast Florida
with strong storms producing heavy rainfall. The second front is
coming down the coast as a backdoor cold front and this front is
being trailed by strong northerly winds and a few showers. This
front is currently approaching Saint Simons Island and will
quickly shift down the coast and continue to increase the
convergence to force numerous to widespread showers and embedded
storms with locally heavy rainfall across the coastal counties of
northeast Florida overnight.

Northerly winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to
around 35 mph at the coast after midnight and these windy
conditions will continue through the day on Tuesday. Much lower
dewpoints will advect in from the north and this will help to
shutdown rain chances across inland locations of southeast Georgia
and across the Suwannee Valley area of northeast Florida.
Scattered to numerous showers will continue along the coast of
northeast Florida on Tuesday due to increased moisture
convergence near the coast. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected
and the WPC has included part of our area along the coast south of
Jacksonville in a moderate to slight risk of excessive rainfall.
These areas can expect to see at least 1 to 2 inches with much
higher amounts possible in localized areas through Tuesday.
Flagler County stands to see the most rain in our area and some
minor flooding will certainly be possible given the antecedent
wet conditions across that area.

Overcast low stratus clouds will quickly move in with the backdoor
cold front overnight. Overcast conditions will continue for all
coastal areas and most of inland northeast Florida through
Tuesday. Temperatures will struggle to move into the 70s for many
areas on Tuesday given the overcast conditions and cold air
advection.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low stratus clouds will quickly overspread the region after
midnight as strong northerly winds work down the coast. Windy
conditions will develop at the coastal TAF sites after midnight
and then across inland TAF sites on Tuesday. There is very high
confidence that ceilings will drop down to at least low MVFR
levels after midnight. Some areas may even briefly lower to IFR
ceilings. MVFR ceilings are expected to continue at all TAF sites
through the entire day on Tuesday. Some improvement may reach SSI
by late in the day as drier air continues to filter down the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will quickly increase north to south overnight as a backdoor
cold front rapidly moves southward across the waters. Solid SCA
conditions are expected to develop with gusts to gale force
expected. Numerous showers are also expected, especially across
the northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents: High Risk of Rip Currents due to strong
northeasterly winds and rough and building surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  71  50  76 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  64  70  64  76 /  80  20  10  20
JAX  66  72  64  78 /  80  40  20  20
SGJ  72  75  70  78 /  90  60  50  50
GNV  68  72  62  80 /  70  20  10  20
OCF  69  75  65  82 /  60  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Putnam.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Wolf/Shuler/Corless





000
FXUS62 KJAX 161916
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
316 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT...
...SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Surface front has moved into the interior portions of the
southeast Georgia this early afternoon.  Head of the front many
locales have reached near record or record high temperatures
across the region. As low level forcing increases from the
surface front as is tracks from SE Georgia toward the coastal
Georgia and Suwannee Valley this late afternoon and for I-10
corridor toward the First Coast into north central FL this
evening. Likely to categorical rain chances are forecast for
eastern parts of southeast GA and parts of northeast FL mainly
east of highway 301 toward First Coast where convergence will be
the most heightened. In addition to the rainfall, a few storms may
reach strong to low end severe levels later this afternoon and
evening as thunderstorms advect into ML CAPE at 1500 J/KG.

Tonight...cold front will be located from about Fernandina to
Ocala around 8 pm. Locally heavy rainfall is expected in the
evening as weak low pressure forms along and ahead of the
front...mainly from Sawgrass northward to Jax metro area to
Nassau Sound. The cold front will decelerate slightly as it moves
southward, passing Ocala around midnight. Post-frontal rain
chances will remain numerous showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms with some localized heavy rain expected,
particularly over the coastal counties south of Sawgrass through
late tonight...diminishing a bit north of Sawgrass to Southern
Duval County but remain high for the parts of northeast FL coast
south of Sawgrass. Windy conditions will likely develop for the
coastal areas overnight with winds of sustained north- northeast
winds of about 20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph possible.

Tuesday...Windy conditions will continue through the day across
the coastal areas with localized heavy rain continuing along the
NE FL coast, particularly south of Sawgrass over parts of
southern St. Johns, Flagler and southeast of Putnam County. A few
early morning showers will be possible across coastal SE GA. Drier
air will continue to filter in across much of SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley. Noticeably cooler temps will be felt area
wide...due to cold air advection...leading to a day of below
normal temps. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible
for coastal NE FL with locally higher amounts possible
particularly at the near coast . Most total rainfall amounts
elsewhere will be generally a half an inch or less.

.SHORT TERM /Tue Night-Thursday/...

Cold frontal boundary will slide southward through the Florida
Peninsula before stalling by Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall
threat and strong winds of 15-25G35 mph along the NE FL coast Tue
Night will slowly subside Wed-Thu as pressure gradient slowly
relaxes but overall expect NE surface flow to continue showers
over the coastal waters with scattered showers at times reaching
the coast and I-95 corridor. Otherwise mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies and cooler/drier airmass will filter south across
inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley. Temps will be
much closer to normal with lows in the 50s/60s inland and near 70
along the coast in the onshore flow and Highs near 80 degrees.

.LONG TERM /Friday-Monday/...

High pressure over the Carolinas will slowly build into the Wrn
Atlc while old frontal boundary remains well south of the region.
The steering flow will remain easterly off the Atlc with coastal
showers possible on Fri/Sat, then steering flow will become more
southerly on Sun/Mon and bring a return to more deeper moisture
and scattered showers and isolated storms area-wide. Temps will
return to slightly above normal levels with Highs into the lower
to middle 80s and Lows generally in the 60s inland and lower 70s
at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and storms have formed ahead of the front
mainly west of highway 301. As the cold front moves into the
region from the north and northwest high rain chances will prevail
for area terminals from around 23z-04z time frame as the front
continues to push southeastward. A light northerly wind expected
through early afternoon...shifting to the northeast-east along the
coast from the sea breeze. Wind shift to north- northeast
expected in wake of front after 00z this evening. Widespread MVFR
cigs expected this early evening, diminishing to IFR to LIFR mid
evening during the overnight hours into Tuesday for coastal
terminals and slowly lifting to VFR for Gainesville, St Simons
between 12z-18z, while low cloud cover, and scattered to
categorical showers remain over Coastal Duval, Coastal St. Johns
and Flagler Counties. Some locally heavy rain can occur at St.
Augustine terminal keeping reduced IFR to VLIFR conditions during
the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will sharply increase tonight as a cold front
enters our waters and have raised small craft advisory for all
waters. Occasional gale force gusts are expected tonight through
late Tuesday night and included in the marine forecast. Winds/Seas
remain elevated through the remainder of the week and SCA
headlines will continue at least through Wed evening and Thursday
morning.

Rip Currents: With north-northeast surge of winds expected
tonight and into Tuesday, High Risk of rip currents along with
High Surf Potential and Minor Coastal Flooding Potential is
expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Jacksonville has broken the record daily high with 92 for today
which was set in 1925 with 90 degrees. St. Simons broke a record
set in 1971 of 87 degrees with a daily high 88 degrees this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  72  50  76 /  30  10   0   0
SSI  65  72  64  76 /  80  20  10  20
JAX  67  73  64  78 /  80  40  20  20
SGJ  72  75  70  78 /  80  60  50  50
GNV  66  76  62  80 /  80  20  10  20
OCF  69  77  65  82 /  80  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Putnam.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT Thursday
     for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Wednesday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
     Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Cordero/Hess/Nelson





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