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000
FXUS62 KJAX 142106
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL
406 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
High pressure holds over much of the Gulf of Mexico and the
peninsula of Florida this afternoon while a frontal boundary sits
over much of the Interstate 20 corridor from Georgia into Texas.
Conditions over Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia will
continue to be fairly free of precipitation with increasing clouds
and moisture as a southwesterly flow builds. Some moisture could
potentially allow for showers over portions of north central
Florida, but the rain chances for tonight fall below mentionable
levels (less than 15%) for the forecast. Temperatures will be a
tad warmer for locations south of Interstate 10 tonight, though
much of the area north of Interstate 10 will see increase cloud
cover overnight which will help limit some of the radiational
cooling efficiency.

On Friday, a mid-level trough will push down from the Great Lakes
through the Tennessee Valley into Texas helping propel the front a
bit more southeastward. As this energy pushes the front from the
northern portions of Georgia into the area, cloud cover will
increase and so will the potential for some isolated showers. The
airmass still appears to be pretty dry with a lack of much support
for convection so will continue to keep mention of rain out of the
forecast for this issuance.

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Saturday night/...
The front will stall over the region with a relative minimum in
moisture over the area. As the next system digs out of Mexico into
Texas later on Saturday, it will help propel the next system
northeastward across the south central United States. By the end
of the weekend/start of the next work week, the mid and upper
level support abandons the moisture and surface boundary over much
of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Alabama. The high over the
Greater Antilles will continue to hold much of the area drier,
though the higher moisture will slowly take much of Southern
Georgia by late Monday into Tuesday.

As a mid-level trough pushes eastward across the Deep South, it
will help push the front towards Southeastern Georgia and
Northeastern Florida by Wednesday morning. The 12z GFS clears the
front south of the area while the 12z ECMWF holds the boundary
over the area. Confidence in this portion of the extended
decreases due to these differences as some guidance paints a wet
solution while others are cool and dry depending on the frontal
passage or stalling over the region. By the end of the extended,
the guidance converges on the solution of increasing moisture
ahead of another frontal system.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR through the period with some high clouds. Sub-VFR fog
possible over the interior terminals, particularly KGNV,
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient will continue to weaken through Friday
ahead of a weak cold front. High pressure will then build north to
northeast of the region through the weekend, and then shift to
the western Atlantic early next week. Seas will diminish to 1-3
feet tonight and remain 3 feet or less through early next week.

Rip Currents: low risk through the end of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very light surface and transport wind speeds will result in poor
to fair daytime dispersion values over a large portion of
Northeast Florida and Southeastern Georgia though some portions of
north central Florida could see good dispersions on Friday
afternoon to buck the general trend. Minimum relative humidity
values will fall to near 30 percent at inland locations on
Saturday afternoon, with higher values in north central Florida.
Onshore winds will strengthen slightly in coastal locations on
Saturday afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy fog and low clouds are
possible during the predawn and early morning hours on Friday in
the Suwannee Valley and north central Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  63  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  48  65  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  49  69  44  62 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  52  69  48  61 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  49  72  45  66 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  52  73  47  68 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

RAG/Kelly





000
FXUS62 KJAX 141708
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL
1208 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR through the period with some high clouds. Sub-VFR fog
possible over the interior terminals, particularly KGNV,
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  62  37  61 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  49  63  42  58 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  47  69  43  63 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  49  68  48  62 /   0  20  10   0
GNV  47  72  44  66 /   0  20  10   0
OCF  51  72  47  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly





000
FXUS62 KJAX 141347
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
847 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.UPDATE...

A weak, stationary boundary will remain near the FL/GA border
Today, with mainly mid and high cloudiness streaming East along
it, as a cold front approaches from the Northwest. Temperatures
will moderate Today, with the warmest readings South of the
boundary over NE FL, where highs around 70 will be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this 12z TAF period.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  41  62  37 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  66  49  63  42 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  71  47  69  43 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  69  49  68  48 /   0   0  20  10
GNV  70  47  72  44 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  70  51  72  47 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KJAX 140831
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
331 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Trof will push off the Southeast coast today, with a weakening
pressure gradient. Temperatures will warm and low level moisture
will increase, but still expect dry conditions to prevail. Cirrus
clouds will stream across the region through the period. Stratus
is forecast to move in from the Gulf of Mexico overnight into
northeast Florida along a weak surface boundary, but clouds will
scatter out in the morning. Surface high pressure will remain over
south Florida into the western Atlantic through the period, with
west to southwesterly flow over the region. The weak boundary will
remain along the FL/GA border through the period. Highs will be
near normal to above normal, with temperatures in the 60s across
southeast Georgia and the upper 60s to lower 70s across northeast
Florida. Winds will be light tonight, but with increasing moisture
and cloud cover, lows will be in the low 40s across southeast
Georgia and the mid 40s to lower 50s across northeast Florida,
warmest across north central Florida and the coastal areas.

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
A de-amplifying trough aloft progressing into the southeastern
states will push the stalled boundary near the FL/GA border slowly
southward through northeast and north central Florida by Friday
evening. Low stratus ceilings and potentially fog will be possible
ahead of this boundary during the early to mid morning hours on
Friday in the Suwannee Valley and portions of north central
Florida. The presence of the subtropical branch of the jet stream
overhead and some slightly enhanced moisture pooling along the
frontal boundary may be enough to squeeze out a few light showers
over portions of northeast and north central Florida during the
afternoon hours. Abundant mid and high altitude cloud cover and
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary will keep highs in
the low to mid 60s across southeast Georgia, with inland highs
reaching the lower 70s for locations south of the Interstate 10
corridor.

Cool high pressure will build into the southeastern states on
Friday night and Saturday. The subtropical jet will slowly lift
northward during this time frame as deep layered ridging begins to
expand into south Florida from the Caribbean. Interludes of
thicker cirrus will progress across southeast Georgia on Friday
night, which should prevent freezing temperatures despite light
north-northwesterly winds and a relatively dry air mass. Lows will
range from the mid to upper 30s across inland southeast Georgia to
40-45 elsewhere inland, with upper 40s at the northeast Florida
coast. The cirrus shield should temporarily thin out on Saturday,
with a loose local pressure gradient allowing for a weak sea
breeze to develop during the afternoon hours. Highs will run a few
degrees below climo, with low to mid 60s for most locations,
except upper 60s in north central Florida. Fair skies and light
winds will allow for one more seasonably chilly evening on
Saturday, with lows generally falling to the upper 30s to lower
40s inland. Light onshore low level winds will keep coastal lows
in the 45-50 range.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Deep-layered ridging expanding northward from the Caribbean and
south Florida will deflect shortwave energy northeastward through
the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Flow aloft will
become southwesterly, with deeper moisture values over the Gulf of
Mexico pivoting northeastward and advecting into inland southeast
Georgia during the late afternoon hours. A few light showers will
be possible towards sunset over our western counties in Georgia
and the western Suwannee Valley. Filtered sunshine and light
southeasterly low level winds will boost highs to the 70-75 range
for locations along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor, with
thicker cloud cover keeping highs in southeast Georgia generally
in the 65-70 range. Scattered to numerous showers will then
overspread southeast Georgia and the western Suwannee Valley on
Sunday night, well ahead of a cold front that will be approaching
the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered showers
will be possible elsewhere, except in north central Florida. Lows
will only fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s area-wide.

Deep-layered ridging will remain in place over south Florida and
the northwestern Caribbean early next week, resulting in warm
south-southwesterly low level flow and fast westerly flow aloft
over our region. Deep moisture over the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to advect northeastward into the western Suwannee Valley
and inland southeast Georgia, where periods of scattered to
numerous showers will be possible. A drier air mass will prevail
over north central Florida, where only a few isolated showers are
possible from Monday through Tuesday night. Periods of widely
scattered showers will be possible elsewhere early next week.
Highs over northeast and north central Florida will climb to the
75-80 degree range on both Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Thicker cloud cover and higher rain
chances will keep highs generally in the 70-75 range, with lows
generally in the mid to upper 50s.

Deep-layered ridging centered to the south of our area will
flatten by Tuesday night and Wednesday as a longwave trough
progresses into the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. This
change in the weather pattern should allow a cold front to push
southeastward through our region on Tuesday night or Wednesday,
with a slightly cooler and drier air mass advecting into our
region by Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the
southeastern states. Long-range ensemble guidance remains in
disagreement on timing of the cold frontal passage during the
midweek time frame, and thus model blends keep shower chances in
place on Wednesday. Temperatures should eventually cool slightly,
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s inland to around 50 at
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cirrus clouds are forecast to stream across the region through the
period. MVFR stratus is forecast to move inland from the Gulf
overnight, mainly affecting KGNV. However, it could move across
the rest of the NE FL TAF sites towards daybreak as well for a
short period of time before scattering out. Southwest winds 10
knots or less will prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SCEC conditions will continue into this morning for the offshore
waters due to west southwest winds of 15-20 knots. The pressure
gradient will then weaken through Friday ahead of a weak cold
front. High pressure will then build north to northeast of the
region through the weekend, and then shift to the western Atlantic
early next week. Seas will diminish to 1-3 feet tonight and remain
3 feet or less through early next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  41  62  37 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  66  49  63  42 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  71  47  69  43 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  69  49  68  48 /   0   0  20  10
GNV  70  47  72  44 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  70  51  72  47 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Nelson





000
FXUS62 KJAX 140012
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
712 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...

The forecast for tonight looks good. The only update was to tweak
hourly temps down a few degrees here this evening based on how
quickly temps have fallen off since sunset. In fact we are already
closing in on our forecast min temps. Temperatures, however, will
level off and are likely to even come up a degree or two after
midnight as warm air advection kicks in and high clouds increase
from the west. Southwesterly flow may also come up just a tad
during the early morning hours. Main forecast challenge is
determining extent of low clouds moving into portions of northeast
Florida from the Gulf of Mexico late tonight. Should see skies in
our southern zones become at least partly cloudy if not mostly
cloudy by sunrise.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will generally prevail. The only question mark is
the potential for some low clouds moving in across portions of
northeast Florida from the Gulf of Mexico late tonight. Latest
forecast soundings and high res data lend enough confidence to
show MVFR ceilings at GNV an SGJ late tonight into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

SCEC looks good overnight into Thursday. Southwest winds will
steadily increase during the night and will approach 20 knots
over the offshore waters after midnight. Southwest winds will only
gradually subside during the day on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Low Risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  65  42  61 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  44  65  49  63 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  40  70  47  68 /   0   0   0  20
SGJ  43  70  51  68 /   0   0  10  30
GNV  39  70  48  70 /   0   0  10  30
OCF  40  70  51  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shuler/Elsenheimer/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 140012
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
712 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...

The forecast for tonight looks good. The only update was to tweak
hourly temps down a few degrees here this evening based on how
quickly temps have fallen off since sunset. In fact we are already
closing in on our forecast min temps. Temperatures, however, will
level off and are likely to even come up a degree or two after
midnight as warm air advection kicks in and high clouds increase
from the west. Southwesterly flow may also come up just a tad
during the early morning hours. Main forecast challenge is
determining extent of low clouds moving into portions of northeast
Florida from the Gulf of Mexico late tonight. Should see skies in
our southern zones become at least partly cloudy if not mostly
cloudy by sunrise.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will generally prevail. The only question mark is
the potential for some low clouds moving in across portions of
northeast Florida from the Gulf of Mexico late tonight. Latest
forecast soundings and high res data lend enough confidence to
show MVFR ceilings at GNV an SGJ late tonight into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

SCEC looks good overnight into Thursday. Southwest winds will
steadily increase during the night and will approach 20 knots
over the offshore waters after midnight. Southwest winds will only
gradually subside during the day on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Low Risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  65  42  61 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  44  65  49  63 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  40  70  47  68 /   0   0   0  20
SGJ  43  70  51  68 /   0   0  10  30
GNV  39  70  48  70 /   0   0  10  30
OCF  40  70  51  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shuler/Elsenheimer/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 131939
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
239 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT-THURSDAY/...

Rest of this afternoon...Sunny skies and cool temps with Highs
topping out in the 50s in most locations, with a few lower 60s
possible across Marion County.

Tonight...Forecast still on track with Sfc High Pressure building
south of the region across Cntrl/Srn FL and low pressure trof
tracking through the SE US and towards the SE US coast by morning.
This will keep a light W/SW flow through the night and despite a
slight increase in high clouds early in the evening still expect
lows to drop to around 40 degrees inland and in the lower to
middle 40s along the coast and will likely bottom out in the
Midnight to 3am time frame as clouds further increase becoming
partly to mostly cloudy by morning across NE FL as low level
moisture increases out of the NE GOMEX.

Thursday...Trof over the SE US coast pushes offshore and will
weaken the pressure gradient, but still expect W/SW flow will
continue to allow for milder temps with Highs reaching to around
70 degrees across NE FL where skies remain partly cloudy while Mid
to Upper 60s are expected across SE GA under Mostly Sunny skies.
The moisture increase in the W/SW flow may bring a few light
showers and sprinkles to the Big Bend region that may spill into
Western Marion County during the morning hours, but overall
measurable rainfall chances remain less than 20% with all other
areas remaining dry. W/SW sfc winds will increase to 10-15 mph
by the afternoon hours.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night-Friday night/...

A cold front will move across the area on Friday and move to well
south of the area Friday night. Moisture appears limited with this
front. However...there may be just enough moisture pooling along the
front for a few showers especially across areas south of I-10.
Abundant cloud cover...from sub-tropical jet...along with modest
cold air advection will keep max temps near 60 degrees across the
far north. Temps expected to reach the lower 70s across the far
south where there will be some warming out ahead of the front.
Colder temps advect into the area Friday night behind the front with
low temps ranging from the mid to upper 30s across the upper
Suwannee Valley and inland Se Ga to 40 to 45 degrees across Ne Fl.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Cool surface ridging over the southeastern states early on Saturday
will progress northeastward towards the Carolina coast by Saturday
evening. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper low over Baja California on
Saturday will open up and move across Texas Saturday night resulting
in cyclogenesis over the western Gulf of Mexico. Cool northerly flow
will advect a drier air mass into northeast and north central
Florida early on Saturday, with only patches of high cirrus expected
over our region through Saturday night. Low level flow will quickly
veer to northeasterly by Saturday afternoon, but our local pressure
gradient should remain relatively loose through Saturday night.
Highs on Saturday will remain about 5 degrees below climo, with
upper 50s to around 60 expected for locations along and north of
Interstate 10, ranging to the mid 60s in north central Florida. Lows
Saturday night will fall to the low to mid 40s inland, with light
onshore winds keeping coastal lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Southwesterly flow aloft will deepen over our region on Sunday as
shortwave troughing accelerates from the Arklatex region early in
the day to the Tennessee and then Ohio Valley by Sunday evening.
Deep-layered moisture will advect northeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico into our area during the afternoon hours, and some weak
isentropic lift will develop scattered mainly light showers during
the afternoon hours for most of our region. Highs will rebound to
above climo, ranging from the upper 60s in southeast Georgia to the
low/mid 70s in north central Florida.

Deep southwesterly flow will prevail over our area early next week
downstream of another trough aloft that will be digging
southeastward from the Plains states. Shortwave energy embedded
within this moisture-laden weather pattern will produce periods of
scattered showers from Sunday night through at least Monday with
temperatures and humidity levels remaining well above late December
climo. Differences exist between the GFS and the ECMWF with regards
to timing of cold front early next week with ECMWF much faster than
the GFS. For now...will keep a few lingering showers with the front
into Tuesday followed by cooler and drier conditions late Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Temps will be below normal Saturday but warm to above normal Sunday
into Tuesday and then cool to near normal Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through 06z tonight, then models still trying to push some low
level moisture out of the W-SW from the NE GOMEX across the NE FL
TAF sites with MVFR CIGS possible around 2000 ft at GNV 09z and
the rest of NE FL TAF sites by 12z. With low probs of this event
have left just Scattered Clouds in the TAF forecast for now, Best
chance of actual MVFR CIGS will be at KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure pushes south of the waters tonight while trof pushes
across the SE US and offshore in the Atlc on Thursday. This will
tighten the pressure gradient and expect W/SW winds at 15-20 knots
and seas 3-6 ft and will headline with SCEC for now as it likely
falls just below SCA conds...although will be close for the SE GA
offshore waters. High pressure ridge builds in over the waters for
Friday through the weekend with variable winds 10-15 knots and
seas 3-4 ft or less. Winds increase out of the south ahead of the
next system early next week.

Rip Currents: Low Risk continues in the offshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  65  42  61 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  44  65  49  63 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  40  70  47  68 /   0   0   0  20
SGJ  43  70  51  68 /   0   0  10  30
GNV  39  70  48  70 /   0   0  10  30
OCF  40  70  51  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Hess/Peterson/Walker





000
FXUS62 KJAX 131319
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
819 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Cool Sfc High pressure over the Northern GOMEX will track SE and
end up south of the region over Cntrl/Srn FL by the end of the
day. NW flow will become W/SW later today under sunny skies and
cool temps as Highs rebound only into the mid-upper 50s. Sfc High
pressure will remain over Srn FL tonight while a weak trof will
push across the SE US and tighten the pressure gradient slightly
to keep a light SW wind through the night and will keep temps
slightly warmer tonight with lows generally in the 40s. Aloft some
increase in high clouds is expected after midnight along with some
potential lower clouds out of the NE GOMEX towards morning across
inland NE FL with possible Mostly Cloudy skies there while partly
cloudy skies expected elsewhere by morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through midnight tonight, then a few models have some
increase in low level moisture from the SW out of the NE Gomex
that may bring in some clouds in the 2000-3000 ft range but plan
to keep these Scattered at this time in the 06-12z time frame for
now.

&&

.MARINE...
NW flow 15-20 knots/Seas 3-6 ft will continue to subside today
and will replace SCA with SCEC headlines over the offshore waters.
As high builds south of the waters flow will become W/SW tonight
and increase once again to 15-20 knots with SCEC conds and
possible SCA conds with 20 knot sustained winds for the offshore
SE GA waters.

Rip Currents: Low Risk in the offshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  39  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  46  64  49 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  59  41  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  59  43  68  54 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  58  40  70  51 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  59  41  70  52 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hess





000
FXUS62 KJAX 131319
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
819 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Cool Sfc High pressure over the Northern GOMEX will track SE and
end up south of the region over Cntrl/Srn FL by the end of the
day. NW flow will become W/SW later today under sunny skies and
cool temps as Highs rebound only into the mid-upper 50s. Sfc High
pressure will remain over Srn FL tonight while a weak trof will
push across the SE US and tighten the pressure gradient slightly
to keep a light SW wind through the night and will keep temps
slightly warmer tonight with lows generally in the 40s. Aloft some
increase in high clouds is expected after midnight along with some
potential lower clouds out of the NE GOMEX towards morning across
inland NE FL with possible Mostly Cloudy skies there while partly
cloudy skies expected elsewhere by morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through midnight tonight, then a few models have some
increase in low level moisture from the SW out of the NE Gomex
that may bring in some clouds in the 2000-3000 ft range but plan
to keep these Scattered at this time in the 06-12z time frame for
now.

&&

.MARINE...
NW flow 15-20 knots/Seas 3-6 ft will continue to subside today
and will replace SCA with SCEC headlines over the offshore waters.
As high builds south of the waters flow will become W/SW tonight
and increase once again to 15-20 knots with SCEC conds and
possible SCA conds with 20 knot sustained winds for the offshore
SE GA waters.

Rip Currents: Low Risk in the offshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  39  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  46  64  49 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  59  41  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  59  43  68  54 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  58  40  70  51 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  59  41  70  52 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hess





000
FXUS62 KJAX 130917
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
417 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Temperatures were in the upper 30s to mid 40s early this morning,
with west northwesterly winds of 5-10 mph. Temps will continue to
fall into the middle 30s across the interior before daybreak,
with wind chills in the mid/upper 20s. High pressure over the
panhandle of Florida early this morning will move south during the
day. Light southwesterly winds will prevail. Despite full
sunshine, temps will be on the cool side with below normal max
temps areawide, with highs in the low to mid 50s across southeast
Georgia, and the mid to upper 50s to near 60 across northeast
Florida.

Tonight: Center of surface high pressure will reside over north
Florida with the region on the northern periphery. Light west
winds at the surface of 3 to 7 knots will be decoupled from the
925mb winds which will be 40 to 45 knots SE GA and 25 to 40 knots
FL zones. There will be enough mixing and moisture increase from
the Gulf to keep temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s to the
coast. Low stratus may move in from the Gulf overnight across the
Suwannee Valley.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday night/...
The subtropical branch of the jet stream will be in place over our
region, with troughing digging southeastward from the Plains
states. Meanwhile, weak surface ridging centered over southeast
Florida early on Thursday, which will create a light west-
southwest wind regime in the low levels. We cannot rule out a few
sprinkles falling from the mid and high altitude cloud deck over
Marion County on Thursday afternoon and evening, but measurable
rainfall will likely be isolated in nature. Temperatures will
rebound to near mid-December climo, with highs generally in the
mid to upper 60s, except near 70 in north central Florida.

The approaching progressive trough aloft will drive a cold front
into the southeastern U.S. on Thursday night. Deepening west-
southwesterly flow and some isentropic lift well ahead of the
front may drive a few light showers onshore from the Gulf of
Mexico into western Marion County on Thursday night. Mid and high
altitude cloud cover associated with the subtropical jet will
increase from south to north overnight, with lows falling into the
lower 40s near the Altamaha, ranging to the low/mid 50s for
coastal northeast and north central Florida.

Deep southwesterly flow will persist on Friday area-wide, with
modest amounts of moisture pooling along a slow moving cold front
that will slowly slide southeastward through our region during the
afternoon hours. Isolated to widely scattered light showers will
be possible throughout the day, mainly for locations south of
Waycross. Abundant cloud cover and cool air advection during the
afternoon hours will keep highs in the low to mid 60s for
southeast Georgia, while highs climb to the upper 60s and lower
70s for locations in northeast and north central Florida that will
be ahead of the cold front through the early afternoon.

The cold front will move southward into the Florida peninsula and
will dissolve on Friday night. The subtropical branch of the jet
stream will remain in place over our area, keeping a mid-level
cloud deck in place through at least the evening hours per model
soundings, with clearing skies expected over much of southeast
Georgia expected after midnight. Our local pressure gradient will
temporarily tighten overnight as cool surface ridging builds into
the southeastern U.S., with northwesterly winds of 5-10 mph
expected inland and 10-15 mph in coastal locations overnight. Lows
will fall to about 5 degrees below climo, with upper 30s expected
inland and around 40 at the coast. Lows will generally fall to
40-45 for inland northeast Florida, ranging to the mid/upper 40s
for north central and coastal northeast Florida.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Cool surface ridging over the southeastern states early on
Saturday will progress northeastward towards the Carolina coast by
Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper low over Baja
California on Saturday will get picked up by the subtropical
branch of the jet stream and will accelerate into deep south Texas
by Saturday night, resulting in cyclogenesis over the western
Gulf of Mexico. Cool northerly flow will advect a drier air mass
into northeast and north central Florida early on Saturday, with
only patches of high cirrus expected over our region through
Saturday night. Low level flow will quickly veer to northeasterly
by Saturday afternoon, but our local pressure gradient should
remain relatively loose through Saturday night. Highs on Saturday
will remain about 5 degrees below climo, with upper 50s to around
60 expected for locations along and north of Interstate 10,
ranging to the mid 60s in north central Florida. Lows Saturday
night will fall to the low to mid 40s inland, with light onshore
winds keeping coastal lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Southwesterly flow aloft will deepen over our region on Sunday as
shortwave troughing accelerates from the Arklatex region early in
the day to the Tennessee and then Ohio Valley by Sunday evening.
Deep-layered moisture will advect northeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico into our area during the afternoon hours, and some weak
isentropic lift will develop scattered mainly light showers during
the afternoon hours for most of our region. Highs will rebound to
above climo, ranging from the upper 60s in southeast Georgia to
the low/mid 70s in north central Florida.

Deep southwesterly flow will prevail over our area early next
week downstream of another trough aloft that will be digging
southeastward from the Plains states. Shortwave energy embedded
within this moisture-laden weather pattern will produce periods of
scattered showers from Sunday night through Tuesday, with
temperatures and humidity levels remaining well above late
December climo. Lows on Sunday night and Monday night will
generally fall into the 50s, except around 60 at the coast. Highs
on Monday will generally climb to 70-75, except the upper 70s in
north central Florida. Highs on Tuesday will cool by a few degrees
ahead of an approaching cold front. A few showers may linger
along the cold front that should push through northeast and north
central Florida on Tuesday evening, with a slightly cooler and
drier air mass moving into the southeastern U.S. during the
midweek time frame behind the front. Highs on Wednesday will
generally reach the mid to upper 60s, with inland lows falling
back into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period with light west to
northwest winds and clear/sunny skies. Low stratus may move from
the Gulf towards KGNV after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions will end this morning as high
pressure builds into the region. Winds will back to the southwest
and increase to SCEC levels, possibly SCA levels, for a brief
period tonight into Thursday as a coastal trough develops. Another
round of SCA conditions expected on Friday/Friday night as
offshore winds increase behind another cold front.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cool and dry air mass will settle over our region today, with
long durations of critically low relative humidity values this
afternoon across inland portions of southeast Georgia.
Northwesterly surface and transport winds will become westerly by
early afternoon, with diminishing speeds resulting in low daytime
dispersion values across much of the Suwannee Valley and portions
of north central Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  39  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  46  64  49 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  59  41  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  59  43  68  54 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  58  40  70  51 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  59  41  70  52 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Kennedy/Nelson





000
FXUS62 KJAX 130052
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
752 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...Clear skies will continue through the night and
the day Wednesday. Winds are gradually decreasing...but will
likely remain in the 5-8kt range during the night keeping
temps up a little. Latest consensus temperature guidance in line
with current low temp forecast tonight...with low-mid 30s well
inland... upper 30s I-95 corridor to coast. Many interior
locations could touch 32 degrees around dawn if winds decrease
enough...but expect time period to be too brief to require freeze
warning.

&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies and 5-10kt W to NW winds next 24 hrs.

&&

.MARINE...No changes planned for next CWF issuance. Will
maintain current SCA.

Rip Currents: Low risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  54  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  35  54  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  35  57  39  67 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  38  56  41  67 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  34  58  37  68 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  35  59  39  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Wolf/Elsenheimer/Shashy





000
FXUS62 KJAX 130052
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
752 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...Clear skies will continue through the night and
the day Wednesday. Winds are gradually decreasing...but will
likely remain in the 5-8kt range during the night keeping
temps up a little. Latest consensus temperature guidance in line
with current low temp forecast tonight...with low-mid 30s well
inland... upper 30s I-95 corridor to coast. Many interior
locations could touch 32 degrees around dawn if winds decrease
enough...but expect time period to be too brief to require freeze
warning.

&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies and 5-10kt W to NW winds next 24 hrs.

&&

.MARINE...No changes planned for next CWF issuance. Will
maintain current SCA.

Rip Currents: Low risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  54  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  35  54  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  35  57  39  67 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  38  56  41  67 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  34  58  37  68 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  35  59  39  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Wolf/Elsenheimer/Shashy





000
FXUS62 KJAX 121853
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
153 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tomorrow/...

A dry cold front is currently moving through our area. Breezy
westerly winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph will
continue through the rest of the afternoon. A few peak gusts up
to around 35 mph will remain possible for a couple more hours.

Cold air advection will kick in late this afternoon and continue
through tonight. The models have come up a little on minimum
temperatures tonight. Northwest winds will stay up a bit for much
of the night and will likely not completely decouple. As a result,
freezing temps across our interior sections will be rather short
lived for a period right around the time of sunrise on Wednesday
morning. Although many inland locations will eventually reach the
freezing mark, widespread freezing temperatures longer than 2
hours are not expected. Therefore, we dropped the freeze watch
and decided against a freeze warning. Very dry air will also
steadily move into the region, so we are not expecting much in
the way of frost tonight, especially given that the winds will
not completely go calm.

High pressure over the panhandle of Florida early Wednesday
morning will move south during the day. Light southwesterly winds
will prevail. Despite full sunshine, temps will be on the cool
side with below normal max temps area-wide, especially across
southeast Georgia.

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Night through Thursday Night/...

Wed night...Center of surface high pressure will reside over
north Florida with our region on the northern periphery of the
feature. Light west winds at the surface of 3 to 7 knots will be
decoupled from the 925mb winds which will be 40 to 45 knots SE GA
and 25 to 40 knots FL zones. There will be enough mixing to
preclude most areas from dipping to the freezing mark. Clear skies
should prevail overnight across southeast Georgia. Lows in the
mid to upper 30s at inland locations likely occurring right around
midnight, with coastal lows generally around lower 40s.

Thursday...SW to WSW wind will prevail Thursday as surface ridge
across south Florida tracks eastward. This should allow afternoon
high temps to warm into the lower 70s. The airmass will be
initially dry though some cloudiness and moisture advection in the
925-700 mb layer will move into areas south of I-10 to the
southern CWA by late afternoon from the Gulf of Mexico with a
strong upper level jet strengthening from TX into the Southeast
and encroaching SE US cold front. The attendant dry cold front
will migrate into central GA and AL by late Thursday. Periods of
mid and cirroform clouds will advect across our region from west
to east as the fast subtropical jet stream remains over our area.
Zonal flow aloft and west- southwest surface winds of 10-15 mph
during the afternoon hours will help temperatures rebound to near
climo, with low to mid 60s expected in southeast Georgia and mid
to upper 60s for northeast and north central Florida.

Thursday night...During Thursday night the high will shift further
east-southeast into the Atlantic as another short wave trough and
attendant but weakened cold front bisects the region near the FL/GA
border during the pre-dawn hours.  As a result...Mid and
high altitude cloudiness will increase during the evening hours
across north central and northeast Florida, with isolated light
showers possibly developing toward daybreak across north central
Florida and southern part of the Suwannee Valley. A dry low and mid
level air mass will prevail over southeast Georgia, where a
cirrus cloud shield should gradually thicken overnight. Increasing
cloudiness and light low level south to southwesterly winds will
result in above climo lows, with mid to upper 40s over inland
southeast Georgia and 50-55 expected elsewhere.

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
A potent shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the lower
Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley and southeastern
states on Friday. The attendant cold front will move south through
the forecast area on Friday with feature moving through north
central Florida not until late in day or early evening. Rain
chances increase into the 20 to 30 percent SE GA Friday, and then
40 to 60 percent across NE FL as the front moves south through the
area. CAA will likely begin during the afternoon hours over
inland southeast Georgia, where highs will only reach the upper
50s to near 60, while highs elsewhere reach the mid to upper 60s.
The last shot of arctic air for the long- term period will plunge
over our region on Friday night as high pressure quickly builds
into the southeastern states. Cool high pressure will prevail over
the southeastern states on Saturday and will only slowly progress
eastward off the southeast U.S. coast by Saturday evening. Highs
on Saturday will only climb to the mid/upper 50s, except lower 60s
for north central Florida. Lows Saturday night will range from
the upper 30s/lower 40s inland to the mid/upper 40s at the coast.

The high will shift east into the Atlantic on Sunday.
Southwesterly flow aloft will develop and strengthen towards the
end of the weekend and early next week as the next shortwave
trough dives into the lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern
states. Dry weather should prevail through at least Sunday
evening, with highs on Sunday rebounding to the mid/upper 60s,
except lower 70s for north central Florida. Rain chances should
gradually increase from west to east from Sunday night through
early next week, with subtropical ridging in place over the
Bahamas and south Florida boosting highs into the low/mid 70s by
Monday, except perhaps upper 60s for inland southeast Georgia,
where cloudiness should be thicker. Milder Pacific air and zonal
flow aloft are progged towards the mid portions of next week, with
a minimal and brief cool-down possible by Tuesday in the wake of
the departing shortwave trough and associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue through this 24 hour TAF period.
Gusty winds from a westerly direction will continue this
afternoon. Much lighter winds tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

Small craft advisory conditions will continue until late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Westerly winds 20 to 25 knots this
afternoon will become northwesterly tonight behind a dry cold
front. An occasional gust up to around 35 knots is possible this
afternoon and evening. Winds will subside substantially on
Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds will
back to the southwest and increase to SCEC levels, possibly SCA
levels, for a brief period Wednesday night into Thursday. Another
round of SCA conditions expected on Friday/Friday night as
offshore winds increase behind another cold front.

Rip Currents: Low Risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  54  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  35  54  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  35  57  39  67 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  38  56  41  67 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  33  58  37  68 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  35  59  39  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shuler/Cordero/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 121447
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
947 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...

Forecast is currently on track and no updates will be needed this
morning. A dry cold front is still on track to push across our
region this afternoon. Breezy conditions will develop today with
gusts up to around 30 mph expected. Max temps today will be
slightly below normal across our northwestern zones, but slightly
above normal across the rest of the area due to the later arrival
of the cold air advection.

Strong cold air advection tonight as high pressure quickly builds
in from the west will set the stage for freezing temperatures
across much of our interior sections tonight. Freeze watch will
likely be upgraded to a warning with the afternoon forecast
issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hour TAF period.
Breezy conditions will develop today as winds slowly veer to the
northwest with gusts up to around 25 knots this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Small craft advisories in effect today and tonight. Southwest
winds 20 to 25 knots will veer to the west and then eventually
northwest tonight behind a cold front. An occasional gust to gale
force is possible late this afternoon through this evening.

Rip Currents: Low risk today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  31  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  68  36  52  43 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  71  35  57  37 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  72  37  56  40 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  71  33  58  38 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  72  34  59  38 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-
     Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-
     Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-
     Wayne.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Wednesday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
     Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shuler/Sandrik/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 120841
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
341 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR TONIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Warmer temperatures were observed across the region this morning
due to southwesterly winds ahead of the next cold front moving
across the Southeast. A dry cold front will push to near the FL/GA
border by the early afternoon and through the region by mid
afternoon. Breezy to windy westerly winds will prevail today,
with wind speeds 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph. Will hold off
on a Wind Advisory at this time due to winds remaining generally
below 35 mph in gusts, but there could be a few isolated gusts to
35 mph this afternoon. Temperatures will warm to above normal
across northeast Florida, due to cold air advection lagging behind
the frontal boundary passage, with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Highs across interior southeast Georgia will be near
normal in the low to mid 60s, with upper 60s along the coast due
to the westerly flow.

Strong cold air advection is expected behind the cold front
tonight, with temperatures falling to around the freezing mark
across most of the interior. Across northeast Florida and
coastal areas, temperatures will fall to the mid 30s to near 40
degrees. Wind chills will be in the mid 20s across much of the
interior, and around 30 along the coast. A Freeze Watch has been
issued for all of southeast Georgia and much of interior northeast
Florida late tonight into Wednesday morning.

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
Negatively tilted troughing aloft over the Mid-Atlantic States and
New England will slowly pivot northward as a pair of shortwave
troughs dive quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies
early on Wednesday into the Great Lakes States and Ohio Valley by
early Thursday. These shortwaves will pivot eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic States and New England on Thursday as the next
shortwave trough diving southward from Canada sharpens over the
Plains states on Thursday night. As the negatively tilted trough
lifts northward and further away from our region on Wednesday,
heights aloft will begin to slowly rise locally by Wednesday
evening as flow aloft gradually becomes more zonal in nature.
Surface ridging will continue to build eastward from Texas early
on Wednesday, allowing our local pressure gradient to gradually
loosen during the day. A cold and dry air mass will prevail on
Wednesday as deep northwesterly flow prevails. Despite full
sunshine, highs will only climb to the mid and upper 50s, which is
about 8-12 degrees below mid-December climo.

Surface ridging will settle over the Florida peninsula on
Wednesday night as a clipper system races southeastward through
the Ohio Valley. The subtropical jet stream will also lift
northward from the Florida peninsula during the overnight hours,
which could advect a mid and high altitude cloud deck over north
central and possibly northeast Florida from the Gulf of Mexico
during the overnight hours, potentially interfering with the peak
of the Geminid Meteor Shower. Clear skies should prevail
overnight across southeast Georgia. A developing southwesterly low
level wind will likely level off temperatures during the overnight
hours, with lows in the mid to upper 30s at inland locations
likely occurring right around midnight, with coastal lows
generally around 40.

A dry cold front will push into the southeastern states on
Thursday, with periods of mid and high altitude cloudiness
traversing our region from west to east as the fast subtropical
jet stream remains over our area. Zonal flow aloft and west-
southwest surface winds of 10-15 mph during the afternoon hours
will help temperatures rebound to near climo, with low to mid 60s
expected in southeast Georgia and mid to upper 60s for northeast
and north central Florida.

The cold front will lose support by Thursday evening as troughing
over the Plains states digs into the lower Mississippi Valley,
causing heights aloft locally to rise slightly. This digging
trough will also sharpen the subtropical jet stream that will be
in place along the northern Gulf coast, with deepening moisture
values advecting northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into north
central Florida during the overnight hours. Mid and high altitude
cloudiness will increase during the evening hours across north
central and northeast Florida, with isolated light showers
possible towards sunrise on Friday for north central Florida and
southern portions of the Suwannee Valley. A dry low and mid level
air mass will prevail over southeast Georgia, where a cirrus cloud
shield should gradually thicken overnight. Increasing cloudiness
and light low level south to southwesterly winds will result in
above climo lows, with mid to upper 40s over inland southeast
Georgia and 50-55 expected elsewhere.

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
A potent shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the lower
Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley and southeastern
states on Friday, driving a cold front through our region. 00Z GFS
ensembles continue to be wetter than the ECMWF with this frontal
passage, and model blends yield scattered to numerous coverage of
showers across north central Florida, with high-end scattered
coverage over northeast Florida and slightly lower chances for
southeast Georgia. Cold air advection will likely begin during the
afternoon hours over inland southeast Georgia, where highs will
only reach the upper 50s to near 60, while highs elsewhere reach
the mid to upper 60s. The last shot of arctic air for the long-
term period will plunge over our region on Friday night as high
pressure quickly builds into the southeastern states. The 00Z
ECWMF keeps the subtropical jet and associated mid and high
altitude clouds in place over northeast and north central Florida,
while the GFS and MOS guidance indicates temporary clearing
overnight, which would allow lows to fall to the mid/upper 30s
inland and around 40 at the coast. Cool high pressure will prevail
over the southeastern states on Saturday and will only slowly
progress eastward off the southeast U.S. coast by Saturday
evening. Highs on Saturday will only climb to the mid/upper 50s,
except lower 60s for north central Florida. Lows Saturday night
will range from the upper 30s/lower 40s inland to the mid/upper
40s at the coast.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop and strengthen towards the
end of the weekend and early next week as the next shortwave
trough dives into the lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern
states. Long-term guidance remains in disagreement on the
amplitude and speed of this shortwave trough, but dry weather
should prevail through at least Sunday evening, with highs on
Sunday rebounding to the mid/upper 60s, except lower 70s for north
central Florida. Rain chances should gradually increase from west
to east from Sunday night through early next week, with
subtropical ridging in place over the Bahamas and south Florida
boosting highs into the low/mid 70s by Monday, except perhaps
upper 60s for inland southeast Georgia, where cloudiness should be
thicker. Milder Pacific air and zonal flow aloft are progged
towards the mid portions of next week, with a minimal and brief
cool-down possible by Tuesday in the wake of the departing
shortwave trough and associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Southwest winds 5-10
knots overnight will become westerly during the day on Tuesday and
increase to 15-20 knots with gusts of 25-30 knots ahead of and
behind a cold front. Winds will diminish to around 10 knots this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the offshore coastal
waters beginning this morning for westerly winds increasing to
around 20 knots and this afternoon for the nearshore waters. Winds
will increase to around 25 knots this afternoon offshore, and a
few gusts to gale force are possible. Seas will also build to 5-7
feet offshore this afternoon and continue through tonight. High
pressure will then build over the Florida peninsula on Wednesday,
with lighter winds. The ridge will build SSE through Thu in
advance of yet another cold front expected to cross the waters
late Fri or Sat with a low chance of rainfall with the potential
for marginal advisory conditions over the outer waters.

Rip Currents: Low risk today. Moderate risk highlighted for Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southwesterly surface winds will quickly increase during the mid
and late morning hours today, with westerly sustained winds near
20 mph this afternoon with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall to around 35 percent this
afternoon, and low ERC values will preclude Red Flag Conditions
today. A colder and dry air mass will then plunge into our region
tonight, with surface winds shifting to a northwesterly direction
and remaining breezy in coastal locations. A long duration of
relative humidity values below critical thresholds is expected on
Wednesday, with minimum values falling to around 25 percent during
the afternoon hours area-wide. Northwesterly surface winds of 5-10
mph during the morning hours will become westerly during the
afternoon, and these lighter winds and low ERC values will again
preclude Red Flag conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  31  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  68  36  52  43 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  71  35  57  37 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  72  37  56  40 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  71  33  58  38 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  72  34  59  38 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-
     Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-
     Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-
     Wayne.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 AM EST
     Wednesday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to
     St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine
     to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Wednesday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
     Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Kennedy/Nelson





000
FXUS62 KJAX 120024
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
724 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017


.UPDATE...Surface high now over central Fl will drift south
tonight as a cold front to the nw approaches se Ga by morning. The
pressure gradient will increase overnight which should maintain a
light sw wind for most areas. This will result in warmer temperatures
tonight with readings dropping to near 40 degrees inland and mid
40s coast. The cold front will move across se Ga/ne Fl dry on
Tuesday bringing breezy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions tonight and Tuesday. SW winds will
increase to around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after 14z
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...SW winds will increase tonight ahead of approaching cold
front. Advisory conditions not expected until Tuesday morning and
will go with SCEC conditions offshore for tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  59  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  48  63  36  52 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  43  66  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  46  69  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  41  68  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  40  70  34  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 9 AM EST Wednesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday for
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Zibura/Shashy/McGinnis





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